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The changing acidic nature ofEarth's oceans

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The changing acidic nature ofEarth's oceans

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Learn about the effect of Global Warming: National Geographic.

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To learn about climate change, you first must know what climate is.

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Glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising, cloud forests are dying, and wildlife is scrambling to keep pace. It has become clear that humans have caused most of the past century's warming by releasing heat-trapping gases as we power our modern lives. Called greenhouse gases, their levels are higher now than at any time in the last 800,000 years.

We often call the result global warming, but it is causing a set of changes to the Earth's climate, or long-term weather patterns, that varies from place to place. While many people think of global warming and climate change as synonyms, scientists use "climate change" when describing the complex shifts now affecting our planet's weather and climate systems-in part because some areas actually get cooler in the short term.

Climate change encompasses not only rising average temperatures but also extreme weather events, shifting wildlife populations and habitats, rising seas, and a range of other impacts. All of those changes are emerging as humans continue to add heat-trapping greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, changing the rhythms of climate that all living things have come to rely on.

What will we do-what can we do-to slow this human-caused warming? How will we cope with the changes we've already set into motion? While we struggle to figure it all out, the fate of the Earth as we know it-coasts, forests, farms, and snow-capped mountains-hangs in the balance.

Understanding the greenhouse effect

The "greenhouse effect" is the warming that happens when certain gases in Earth's atmosphere trap heat. These gases let in light but keep heat from escaping, like the glass walls of a greenhouse, hence the name.

Sunlight shines onto the Earth's surface, where the energy is absorbed and then radiate back into the atmosphere as heat. In the atmosphere, greenhouse gas molecules trap some of the heat, and the rest escapes into space. The more greenhouse gases concentrate in the atmosphere, the more heat gets locked up in the molecules.

Scientists have known about the greenhouse effect since 1824, when Joseph Fourier calculated that the Earth would be much colder if it had no atmosphere. This natural greenhouse effect is what keeps the Earth's climate livable. Without it, the Earth's surface would be an average of about 60 degrees Fahrenheit (33 degrees Celsius) cooler.

In 1895, the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius discovered that humans could enhance the greenhouse effect by making carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas. He kicked off 100 years of climate research that has given us a sophisticated understanding of global warming.

Levels of greenhouse gases have gone up and down over the Earth's history, but they had been fairly constant for the past few thousand years. Global average temperatures had also stayed fairly constant over that time- until the past 150 years. Through the burning of fossil fuels and other activities that have emitted large amounts of greenhouse gases, particularly over the past few decades, humans are now enhancing the greenhouse effect and warming Earth significantly, and in ways that promise many effects, scientists warn.

Aren't temperature changes natural?

Human activity isn't the only factor that affects Earth's climate. Volcanic eruptions and variations in solar radiation from sunspots, solar wind, and the Earth's position relative to the sun also play a role. So do large-scale weather patterns such as El Niño.

But climate models that scientists use to monitor Earth's temperatures take those factors into account. Changes in solar radiation levels as well as minute particles suspended in the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions, for example, have contributed only about two percent to the recent warming effect. The balance comes from greenhouse gases and other human-caused factors, such as land use change.

The short timescale of this recent warming is singular as well. Volcanic eruptions, for example, emit particles that temporarily cool the Earth's surface. But their effect lasts just a few years. Events like El Niño also work on fairly short and predictable cycles. On the other hand, the types of global temperature fluctuations that have contributed to ice ages occur on a cycle of hundreds of thousands of years.

For thousands of years now, emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere have been balanced out by greenhouse gases that are naturally absorbed. As a result, greenhouse gas concentrations and temperatures have been fairly stable, which has allowed human civilization to flourish within a consistent climate.

Now, humans have increased the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by more than a third since the Industrial Revolution. Changes that have historically taken thousands of years are now happening over the course of decades.

Why does this matter?

The rapid rise in greenhouse gases is a problem because it's changing the climate faster than some living things can adapt to. Also, a new and more unpredictable climate poses unique challenges to all life.

Historically, Earth's climate has regularly shifted between temperatures like those we see today and temperatures cold enough to cover much of North America and Europe with ice. The difference between average global temperatures today and during those ice ages is only about 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius), and the swings have tended to happen slowly, over hundreds of thousands of years.

But with concentrations of greenhouse gases rising, Earth's remaining ice sheets such as Greenland and Antarctica are starting to melt too. That extra water could raise sea levels significantly, and quickly. By 2050, sea levels are predicted to rise between one and 2.3 feet as glaciers melt.

As the mercury rises, the climate can change in unexpected ways. In addition to sea levels rising, weather can become more extreme. This means more intense major storms, more rain followed by longer and drier droughts-a challenge for growing crops-changes in the ranges in which plants and animals can live, and loss of water supplies that have historically come from glaciers.

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Glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising, cloud forests are drying, and wildlife is scrambling to keep pace.

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Paris agreement J.E

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Polar Ice Caps. J.E

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The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the polar climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the Arctic on account of ice-albedo feedback. This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing although at a lesser rate than the decreases in the Arctic. Shown below are up-to-date satellite observations of the sea ice covers of both the Arctic and the Antarctic, along with comparisons with the historical satellite record of more than 37 years. The plots and color-coded maps are chosen to provide information about the current state of the sea ice cover and how the most current daily data available compare with the record lows and record highs for the same date during the satellite era. Sea ice concentration is the percent areal coverage of ice within the data element (grid cell). Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration, while sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration. The dashed vertical line indicates the date of the latest plotted and mapped data.

Figure 1: 10-year averages between 1979 and 2018 and yearly averages for 2007, 2012, and 2021 of the daily (a) ice extent and (b) ice area in the Northern Hemisphere and a listing of the extent and area of the current, historical mean, minimum, and maximum values in km2.

Figure 2: Color-coded map of the daily sea ice concentration in the Northern Hemisphere for the indicated recent date along with the contours of the 15% edge during the years with the least extent of ice (in red) and the greatest extent of ice (in yellow) during the period from November 1978 to the present. The extents in km ² for the current and for the years of minimum and maximum extents are provided below the image. The different shades of gray over land indicate the land elevation with the lightest gray being the highest elevation.

Figure 3. Seasonal cycle of Northern Hemisphere sea ice extents (a) and areas (b), given as daily averages, for the years 2010 through 2021. The vertical line represents the last data point plotted.

Figure 4: Color-coded animation displaying the last 2 weeks of the daily sea ice concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere. These images use data from the AMSR-E/AMSR2 Unified Level-3 12.5 km product. The different shades of gray over land indicate the land elevation with the lightest gray being the highest elevation.

Figure 5: 10-year averages between 1979 and 2018 and yearly averages for 2012, 2014, and 2021 of the daily (a) ice extent and (b) ice area in the Southern Hemisphere and a listing of the extent and area of the current, historical mean, minimum, and maximum values in km2.

Figure 6: Color-coded map of the daily sea ice concentration in the Southern Hemisphere for the indicated recent date along with the contours of the 15% edge during the years with the least extent of ice (in red) and the greatest extent of ice (in yellow) during the period from November 1978 to the present. The extents in km ² for the current and for the years of minimum and maximum extents are provided below the image. The different shades of gray over land indicate the land elevation with the lightest gray being the highest elevation.

Figure 7. Seasonal cycle of Southern Hemisphere sea ice extents (a) and areas (b), given as daily averages, for the years 2010 through 2021. The vertical line represents the last data point plotted.

Figure 8: Color-coded animation displaying the last 2 weeks of the daily sea ice concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere. These images use data from the AMSR-E/AMSR2 Unified Level-3 12.5 km product. The different shades of gray over land indicate the land elevation with the lightest gray being the highest elevation.

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The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the polar climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the Arctic on account of ice-albedo feedback.

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Current Trends

The 2018 IPCC report Global Warming of 1.5°C reported that the global temperature had increased by 1.0°C relative to pre-industrial levels and that, at the current rate of warming, the world would reach a 1.5°C warming between 2030 and 2050 (IPCC, 2018). If continued, a 2°C increase could occur early in the second half of this century.

The main features of such an increase are:

* increase in average temperature (surface air temperature and sea surface temperature) in changes in precipitation patterns
* changes in the rate of occurrence and scales of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, rainfall events, storms, sea surges and flash floods
* slow-onset changes such as sea level rise, the loss of glaciers and ecosystem changes.

Evidence of these changes is apparent around the world, as outlined in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in 2014. Key features are explored in detail in the 2019 Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Across Europe, there has been an increase of almost 2°C since the latter half of the 19th century.

In general, the climate trends observed in Ireland follow the global average. For Ireland, mid-century mean annual temperatures are projected to increase by between 1.0°C and 1.6°C depending on the emissions trajectory. Heat wave events are expected to increase by mid-century and this will have a direct impact on public health and mortality. These changes may affect the phenological phases in many plant and animal species. By mid-century there are projected increases in both dry periods and heavy precipitation events, meaning that we will have to consider increased flood risk and droughts risks. There is also the possibility that, although the average wind speed may decrease, the intensity of individual storms may increase (Nolan, 2015).

Ireland's Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Ireland's GHG emissions increased in the period from 1990 to 2001 where it peaked at 70.46 Mt CO ₂ equivalent, before displaying a downward trend to 2014. Emissions increased by 4.1% and 3.4%, respectively in the years, 2015 and 2016 and remained relatively stable in 2017 and 2018. In 2019 provisional estimates of total national GHG emissions amounted to 59.90Mt CO ₂ equivalent, which is 4.5 per cent lower than 2018 emissions. Ireland's GHG emissions have increased by 10.1 per cent from 1990-2019.

In relation to the greenhouse gases; carbon dioxide (CO ₂) accounted for 62.2% of the total, with methane (CH ₄) and nitrous oxide (N ₂O) contributing 24.6% and 11.4% as CO ₂ equivalent, respectively and F-gases contributing 1.8 per cent of the total as CO ₂ equivalent.

In 2019, the energy industries, transport and agriculture sectors accounted for 71.4% of total GHG emissions. Agriculture is the single largest contributor to the overall emissions, at 35.3 per cent. Transport, Energy Industries and the Residential sector are the next largest contributors, at 20.3 per cent, 15.8 per cent and 10.9 per cent, respectively.

Land Use and Forestry

Land management has a key role in the response to climate change. Ireland has significant and healthy biosystems, including grassland, hedgerows and forests, which sequester or absorb carbon dioxide (CO ₂). Mineral soils and peat make up a large portion of Ireland's land areas and have high carbon content.

In line with international reporting guidelines, Ireland estimates emissions and removals associated with the following land uses: Forest land, Cropland, Grassland, Wetlands, Settlements and Other land. Forest land currently plays a significant role as a carbon sink. Since 1990, Ireland's forest area has expanded by approximately 290,000 ha. As these forests grow and mature, they represent an important CO ₂ sink and long-term carbon store in biomass and soil. However, low forest planting rates in recent years are a future risk in the terms of our national forest estate continuing to act as a significant carbon sink.

Agricultural land management practices can lead to both emissions and removals of GHGs associated both with biomass and soils. Based on best available data, the net impact of land management in agriculture is dominated by a very significant emission of carbon dioxide due to the drainage of organic soils. Although the total area involved is relatively small, at approximately 330,000 ha (8% of the grassland area), the impact is large.

The management of peatlands is a particular concern with respect to potential for loss of carbon. Peat extraction and change of use of drained peatland to grassland or forestry leads to high rates of carbon loss. In general, land management should aim to preserve or enhance areas that have active carbon uptake in soils and biomass, and reduce or eliminate areas that are a source of carbon emissions. Such altered practices also yield benefits for ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Impacts of Climate Change in the Marine Environment

Rising sea temperatures and sea levels, and ocean acidification have been identified as some of the key stressors impacting on the state of the world's oceans and coastal environments as a consequence of Climate Change. These three factors have the potential to seriously affect the functioning of marine and coastal ecosystems on global, regional and local scales.

Rising sea levels in combination with increased storm events that are also predicted to happen are likely to impact on many coastal habitats. An average sea level rise of 0.5 to 1m by the end of the century, in combination with storm surge events, could result in approximately 300 to over 1,000km ² of coastal lands around Ireland being inundated by the sea.

Cause

Over 70% of Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) come from three sectors.

Agriculture

Climate change is challenging for Irish agriculture both in the context of greenhouse gas emissions and the need for adaptation of farming practices to be more resilient to the impacts of climate change. In Ireland the Agriculture sector was directly responsible for 35.3% of national Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions in 2019, mainly methane from livestock, and nitrous oxide due to the use of nitrogen fertiliser and manure management.

Energy

In 2019, emissions from energy industries have decreased by 11.2 per cent on 2018, mainly because of the replacement of coal and peat with natural gas and wind generated electricity. Overall, GHG emissions from energy industries accounted for 15.8 per cent of Ireland's national total emissions in 2019. Over the period 1990-2019, emissions from electricity generation have decreased by 18.0 per cent, whereas total electricity consumption has increased by 139.5 per cent. This decrease reflects the improvement in efficiency of modern gas fired power plants replacing older peat and oil-fired plants and the increased share of renewables, primarily, wind power along with increased interconnectivity.

Transport

Between 1990 and 2019, emissions from transport showed the greatest overall increase, at 136.9 per cent, with road transport increasing 142.4 per cent. Transport emissions have decreased by 15.4 per cent below peak levels in 2007, primarily because of the economic downturn, improving vehicle fuel efficiency as a result of changes to the vehicle registration tax, the increase in use of biofuels and significant decreases in fuel tourism in recent years. However, more recently, increases in transport emissions have been recorded for 5 out of the last 7 years as the economy has grown and transport movements have increased.

What's Being Done?

National Legislation and Policy

The National Policy Statement on climate change sets out a transition to a competitive, low-carbon, climate-resilient and environmentally sustainable economy by 2050; based on: (1) an aggregate reduction in CO ₂ emissions of at least 80% (relative to 1990 levels) by 2050 across the electricity generation, built environment and transport sectors; and (2) an approach to carbon neutrality in the agricultural and land use sector.

Key provisions of the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015 to meet international obligations and targets to 2020 and 2030 includes the preparation and submission to Government for approval of successive 5-yearly National Mitigation Plans and National Adaptation Framework processes, which are designed to address the causes and consequences of climate change in Ireland. The Act also established the Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) to advise government on climate policy and review progress on annual targets.

In 2018, the government tasked the Citizens' Assembly with considering the question of Ireland becoming a leader in climate action. The findings of the Assembly were then considered by a special Joint Oireachtas Committee on Climate Action, which subsequently published its report and recommendations (Houses of the Oireachtas, 2019). Following this, the government published the Climate Action Plan in 2019.

The Climate Action Plan 2019 charts a course towards meeting EU emissions reduction targets for Ireland to 2030. The plan is an important step towards reaching the longer term target of net zero emissions by 2050; however, it assumes a very significant increase in the rate of decarbonisation post 2030. International analysis suggest that early actions can lead to more cost effective decarbonisation.

In 2020, the new government committed to an average 7 per cent per annum reduction in overall greenhouse gas emissions from 2021 to 2030, equivalent to a 51 per cent reduction over the decade and to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. New measures are expected to be announced over the next year to realise this ambition.

The Paris Agreement

In December 2015, a new global agreement was reached to address climate change. The agreement aims to: (1) hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C, (2) increase the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change, (3) make finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low GHG emissions and climate-resilient development.

To achieve this, GHG emissions must peak as soon as possible and then be reduced rapidly. The Agreement establishes a long-term adaptation goal of strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development in the context of the 2°C temperature goal. This makes it clear that, if mitigation activities succeed in limiting the rise in global temperature, less adaptation will be needed. The Paris Agreement enters its implementation phase in 2020, and in doing so replaces the 1997 Kyoto Protocol as the framework for achievement of the objective of the UNFCCC, which is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Renewable Energy

The Renewable Energy Directive which is incorporated into the EU 2020 Climate and Energy Package, requires Ireland to meet 16% of its energy needs from renewable sources by 2020. There are also specific national targets established under the National Renewable Energy Action Plan targets for electricity, transport and heating, for example that renewable energy should supply 12% of heating, 40% of electricity and 10% of transport energy requirements by 2020.

In 2019, renewable energy made up approximately 12% of energy used, mainly from bioenergy and wind power, which is some way short of our 16% target. Currently, 37.6% of electricity generation is from renewable sources, relative to the 40% target for 2020.

Carbon Tax

In 2009, a carbon tax was introduced at a rate of €15 per tonne on certain uses of fossil fuels. This has since increased to €26 per tonne and now applies to all fossil fuels, including coal and peat. The carbon tax is estimated to reduce emissions by about 0.3 Mt CO2 equivalent per annum. The intention of the carbon tax is to also encourage householders to significantly improve energy efficiency in their homes by availing of grants for better home insulation, and to upgrade their old oil or gas boilers to high efficiency condensing boilers.

Transport

To make Ireland 'a leader in responding to climate disruption', as per the Climate Action Plan 2019, a fundamental change in Irish transport policy is required. This needs to be aimed at delivering long-term avoid and shift, followed by improve. A reliance on measures for improving the energy and carbon efficiency of vehicles is evident in Irish policy. We also need to consider avoiding journeys where possible, through innovative spatial and transport planning for compact development, and for shifting to low-carbon transport systems of walking, cycling and public transport.

EPA Research Programme

Under the 2014-2020 EPA Research Programme, the EPA funds research in Climate under its Climate Pillar Themes:
Theme 1: Carbon Stocks, GHG Emissions, Sinks and Management Options
Research under this thematic area is focused on the development of analysis of carbon stocks, sinks/removals and GHG emissions and removals. The annual National Inventory Report on GHG emissions and removals is a key user and driver of the research focus for this thematic area. Research has primarily been targeted at enabling Ireland to move from use of international default values in the inventory (Tier 1) to use of national data (Tier 2) and national systems models (Tier 3) analysis. This is essential as the national inventory is central to policy development, and assessment of its implementation, in meeting targets. It is therefore critical to ensure that it captures activities and processes in an effective manner that informs and enables policy and, specifically, the NMP. This research is therefore informed by national, EU and UN review processes.

A secondary focus is the development of independent top-down analysis of GHG emissions and removals. This is based on utilisation of advanced observation systems and modelling systems to determine emissions and removals. These top-down analyses can be used in combination with the bottom-up inventory data to enhance understanding of emissions and removals. These systems can also provide more detailed temporal and spatial data, which are of particular interest for dispersed emissions/removals, such as those from agriculture and land use. Development of these systems can assist in policy development and decision making. The work carried out also feeds into the development of IPCC Good Practice Guidelines and emissions factor databases, which are used globally for emissions inventory development.

Fundamental science it is not the central driver of research in this area; however, this area does encompass issues such as the carbon and nitrogen cycles and localisation of certain Earth systems models.
Theme 2: Ireland's Future Climate, its Impacts, and Adaptation Options
Research in this area is designed to examine how global climate change has impacted on, and is impacting on, Ireland, as well as to examine projected changes in Ireland's climate as a result of ongoing global changes. This is essential for understanding how climate change may impact on Ireland over the course of this century. In order to understand climate change, it is essential to understand past climate variables. This has been a key area of research. It has involved research on indicators of climate change, including changes in ECVs, as identified by the World Metrological Organization (WMO), and analysis of these based on instrumental and pre-instrumental records and archives.

A central feature has been the development of high-resolution climate models and climate projections for Ireland. These are based on downscaling of global climate models and the development of regional climate modelling capacity in Ireland, including with Met Éireann. This allows for the ongoing development of impacts and vulnerability analysis for key sectors. These outcomes have been summarised in a State of Knowledge report (EPA Research Report 223) ( https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/). This theme has also been central to the development of guidelines to enable risk assessment and adaptation planning, as required under the NAF. This information is available via the Climate Ireland information platform ( www.climateireland.ie). The aim is to provide information and data from the research programme and outcomes from relevant research and analysis at European levels. This can inform steps in the transition to a climate-resilient Ireland by 2050, as envisaged in the national policy statement. This research is also linked to the development of climate services ( http://www.jpi-climate.eu/ERA4CS) at a European level through JPI Climate and DG Research and engagement with development and comparison of global climate models under the World Climate Research Programme ( https://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgcm-cmip), in support of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.
Theme 3: Socio-economic and Technological Solutions and Transition Management and Opportunities
Research in this area is focused on transition and transformation and the socio-economic and technological changes required for a carbon-neutral climate-resilient Ireland by 2050. Research has been focused on the development of key systems models and analysis. These include energy models for Ireland, as well as analysis of key sectoral issues such as transport and potential solutions such as carbon capture and storage. This has enabled the development of national energy systems modelling capacity and Irish versions of European integrated assessment models. This research has been at the forefront of enabling the inclusion of Ireland-specific analysis and data in pan-European analysis and has supported engagement with the European Commission and other European and international bodies, such as the International Energy Agency modelling groups ( https://iea-etsap.org/index.php/etsap-tools). It has also informed energy policy development and the 2014 national policy position on climate change.

Funding under this theme has supported and allowed assessment of national research on technological solutions and storage and emerging technologies. Behavioural issues and market-based solutions have emerged as key areas of research. This is linked to the development of pan-European research, such as that being advanced by JPI Climate (West and Worliczek, 2019). Current research is focused on shared socio-economic pathways, synergies between mitigation and adaptation and the multiple benefits of climate actions, including for human health, biodiversity and ecosystem services. The research aims to inform actions to achieve national targets under the EU Climate and Energy Package.

Details of the latest EPA Funding Research Opportunities and Awards are available from here.

Since 2014, in this area:

The EPA is a member of the Climate Joint Programming Initiative (Member States-driven initiative which aims to enhance collaboration between national research programmes in Europe to address key societal challenges in a more efficient and effective manner). It connects scientific disciplines, enables cross-border research and increases the science-practice interaction. JPI Climate contributes to the overall objective of developing a European Research Area and to underpin the European efforts in tackling the societal challenge of climate change.

Outlook

Emissions Projections

Official projections of GHG emissions to 2040 are based on two scenarios:

(1) with current policies, regulations and incentives (i.e. With Existing Measures, WEM) and
(2) with additional policies, regulations and incentives (i.e. With Additional Measures, WAM).

The WAM scenario includes the impact of new climate mitigation policies and measures that are in Ireland's Climate Action Plan which was published in 2019. This Plan sets out a major programme of policies and measures aimed to help Ireland achieve its decarbonisation goals.

In the short term, Ireland is set to miss its target for compliance with the EU's Effort Sharing Decision 2020 targets. Ireland's non-Emissions Trading Scheme emissions are projected to be 2% and 4% below 2005 levels in 2020 under the WEM and WAM scenarios, respectively. This compares to the target of 20% below 2005 levels by 2020. Ireland has exceeded its annual limits for the non-Emissions Trading Scheme sector emissions in 2016- 2018 and provisional figures indicate 2019 emissions will be 6.98 Mt CO2eq more than the annual limit.

In the longer term, Ireland will meet its 2030 target under the Effort Sharing Regulation as long as there is early and full implementation of the 2019 Climate Action Plan measures. Ireland will also need to avail of, at a minimum, Land-use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) flexibilities provided for in EU legislation in order to comply.

Electricity generation, agriculture and transport, which continue to be key sectors that dominate Ireland's emissions profile, are all projected to decline by 2030, based on full implementation of the measures in the Climate Action Plan. For electricity generation, this will mean scaling up of the contribution of renewable to 70% by 2030. For agriculture this will mean implementing measures such as those set out in Teagasc's Marginal Abatement Cost Curve to achieve a 16.5 Mt CO2eq emission reduction over the period 2021-2030. For transport, this will mean almost one million electric vehicles on Irish roads by 2030 and a considerable increase in the use of biofuels. A significant increase in the installation of heat pumps for domestic and commercial heating and much improved energy efficiency of Ireland's building stock is also necessary in the residential, commercial/public services and manufacturing sectors.

Ireland faces a significant challenge to meet its National Policy Position, which aims to achieve a least 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. For Ireland to achieve its National Policy ambition beyond 2030, further policies, regulations and incentives will be needed. Furthermore the increased ambition at EU level following the European Green Deal, is likely to necessitate a further step-up, additional to the 2019 Climate Action Plan, in the pace and scale of emission reductions.

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Observed climate change impacts are most evident in the global temperature record, sea-level rise, loss of glaciers and ice-sheets and changes in the nature and intensity of precipitation events. These have impacted on human health, water resources and management systems, ecosystems, food production and rates and levels of coastal flooding. Global projections indicate that oceans will continue to warm, sea-level rise will continue during this century and sea-ice and glacier volumes will further decrease.

The character and severity of the impacts of climate extremes depend not only on the extremes themselves but also on exposure and vulnerability to these extremes. The effects of climate change are projected to further impact on food production systems, water resources, coastal infrastructure, critical services and urban centers, resulting in increased displacement of people, societal stress and loss of land and other assets. Ireland's climate is changing in line with regional and global trends. Adaptation actions will be required to reduce adverse impacts and increase resilience to these and other impacts of climate change.

Conclusions

Ireland's climate is changing. Mitigation and adaptation action that is planned, coordinated and prioritised is required to build the resilience of society and the economy in the face of current and projected climate change impacts.

Ireland is vulnerable to weather extremes and sea-level rise. Its coastal assets, transport and energy infrastructure are also vulnerable. Their vulnerability has been exposed by recent weather extremes, which are expected to become more frequent over the coming decades.

Ireland also needs to play an effective part in contributing to EU and global efforts to ensure that the global temperature increase relative to pre-industrial temperatures stays well below 2ºC. Ireland is well positioned to provide leadership in key areas including the monitoring, reporting and verification of GHG emissions and removals from agriculture and land use. Coherent cross-government engagement in, and support for, strategic and effective local and global actions to address climate change is in Ireland's interest.
The next decade needs to be one of major developments and advances in relation to Ireland's response to climate change. We need to start implementing ambitious policies now. Full and early implementation of ambitious policies and measures can deliver Ireland's current and future commitments to a climate-neutral economy and climate-resilient society by 2050.

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The 2018 IPCC report Global Warming of 1.5°C reported that the global temperature had increased by 1.0°C relative to pre-industrial levels and that, at the current rate of warming, the world would reach a 1.5°C warming between 2030 and 2050 (IPCC, 2018). If continued, a 2°C increase could occur early in the second half of this century.

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The greenhouse effect occurs when gases in Earth 's atmosphere prevent some of the heat
from escaping into space.
These gases, which trap the heat in the atmosphere
and as a result make Earth much warmer, are called

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Google Scholar provides a simple way to broadly search for scholarly literature. Search across a wide variety of disciplines and sources: articles, theses, books, abstracts and court opinions.

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Research article 07 Feb 2018

Research article | 07 Feb 2018

Andreas Marx et al.

¹UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Computational Hydrosystems, Leipzig, Germany

²Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, University Utrecht, the Netherlands

³Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

⁴Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

⁵Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic

Abstract. There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e. 1.5, 2, and 3 K with respect to the pre-industrial period) in rivers with a contributing area of more than 1000 km ². The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0, RCP8.5), five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High-resolution model results are available at a spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at a daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90 % of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combination and warming scenario. The results show that the low-flow change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean region, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from −12 % under 1.5 K, compared to the baseline period 1971-2000, to −35 % under global warming of 3 K, largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22 (1.5 K) to +45 % (3 K) in the Alpine region due to changes in snow accumulation. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. However, it is not possible to distinguish climate-induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of (1) the large inter-annual variability which prevents distinguishing statistical estimates of period-averaged changes for a given GCM/HM combination, and (2) the uncertainty in the multi-model ensemble expressed by the signal-to-noise ratio. The contribution by the GCMs to the uncertainty in the model results is generally higher than the one by the HMs. However, the uncertainty due to HMs cannot be neglected. In the Alpine, Northern, and Mediterranean regions, the uncertainty contribution by the HMs is partly higher than those by the GCMs due to different representations of processes such as snow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Based on the analysis results, it is recommended (1) to use multiple HMs in climate impact studies and (2) to embrace uncertainty information on the multi-model ensemble as well as its single members in the adaptation process.

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Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C

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Research article 07 Feb 2018 Research article | 07 Feb 2018 Andreas Marx et al. 1UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Computational Hydrosystems, Leipzig, Germany 2Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, University Utrecht, the Netherlands 3Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA 4Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK 5Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic Abstract.

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Run away effect when icecaps melt