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(P) (22) Droughts and forest fires are on the rise all around the world. If there's no water for the plants to drink and survive, how can they effectively remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere?

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(P) (22) Droughts and forest fires are on the rise all around the world. If there's no water for the plants to drink and survive, how can they effectively remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere?

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Plants capture carbon dioxide and release half of it into the atmosphere. They also use photosynthesis to release oxygen into the atmosphere. (Link A) Droughts and forest fires threaten the safety of the biosphere. Without water, plant species will die off rapidly. Animal species, humans included, will follow soon after, as plants provide many essential resources. Plants provide food, oxygen, and materials necessary for survival. (Link B) Dangerous wildfires and droughts are threatening plant life, with numerous species of plants already going extinct. (Graph A)

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https://www.statista.com/chart/18342/plant-extinctions/

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(GP) (1)Why do people believe global warming is occurring on Earth?

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(GP) (1)Why do people believe global warming is occurring on Earth?

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A steady rise in weather-related disasters (Graph A) and the recorded recession of glaciers (Graph B) has led people to question the security of the climate of our planet. The average surface temperature of the earth has shown that our planet has been gradually heating up. The decade of 2010-2020 was the warmest ever recorded. (Link A) (Graph C) In addition, Other research records an increase in our sea levels, Greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem degration. (Link B)

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(P) (23) Carbon dioxide has been associated with the warming of the earth. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is taken out of the air by plants and trees and replaced with breathable oxygen. 

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(P) (23) Carbon dioxide has been associated with the warming of the earth. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is taken out of the air by plants and trees and replaced with breathable oxygen. 

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A. Does this statement support global warming deniers?
No, a rapid decline in plant life on the face of the earth correlates with an increase in CO2 levels. (Link C)
B. Does this statement support climate science research?
Yes, because climate science research has found that CO2 levels are getting higher and plants are being killed for development and consumption.
C. Does your answer change when you consider deforestation and increased demand for paper and housing?
No, because my answer was based off of that already.

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(GP) General Prompts, white
(HP) Human Population, pink
(CD) Carbon Dioxide, yellow
(IC) Ice Cores, blue
(OS) Oceans & Sea Level, blue
(SS) Space & Satellites, purple
(W) Weather, purple
(P) Photosynthesis, green

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https://www.nationalgeographic.com/climate-change/how-to-live-with-it/weather.html

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https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-glaciers

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https://www.wral.com/earth-has-just-finished-the-warmest-decade-on-record/19472345/

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(GP) (2)Why are some people skeptical of global warming?

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(GP) (2)Why are some people skeptical of global warming?

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While there are many signs highlighting a significant increase in temperature on the planet, some people do not believe it. (Graph D) (Link C) The occurrence of alternating seasons like winter leads people to believe that the planet is not heating. Others believe that because of the earth's previous warming and cooling periods, it will not affect them, ignoring that these periods have led to mass extinction events. (Link D) A common thought is that it's simply too late to stop climate change. While the earth's fluctuating climate may be inevitable, as it has happened in the past, it can be delayed with proper environmental regulations and reserves. If the planet is degraded into severe enough conditions, life will not return after the next mass extinction. (Image A) (Link E)

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https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/dramatic-increase-in-public-beliefs-and-worries-about-climate-change/

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https://www.nationalgeographic.org/media/mass-extinctions/

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(GP) (3) Where is the fastest-warming of Earth's atmosphere occurring?

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(GP) (3) Where is the fastest-warming of Earth's atmosphere occurring?

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Earth's largest landforms and the North pole are warming the quickest.  (Link F) (Image B+C)  This is primarily due to the reflection of the sun in these areas. Surface areas that are darker like asphalt and soil absorb the most energy from the sun, retaining its heat. Usually lighter subjects like the icy glaciers of the north pole and clear water reflect the energy because of their light color. As they become more polluted from dust and waste, their color gradually becomes darker, accelerating the heating process of the atmosphere around them. (Image D) The "albedo" levels in an area greatly affect its climate. (Video A)

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(HP) (4) Compare global population numbers with rising carbon dioxide levels. Are they related? Explain. 

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(HP) (4) Compare global population numbers with rising carbon dioxide levels. Are they related? Explain. 

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As more people populate the earth, we have seen a coinciding rise in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. (Graph A) As the population increases, carbon dioxide rises through increased oxygen consumption. Each child born in the united states adds about 9,441 metric tons of carbon dioxide to the earth's carbon legacy. Richer countries produce the most carbon dioxide. Children born in the United States produce 7x more CO2 than children in China, and 168x more than children in Bangladesh. (Link A) When the population grows, demand for materials and land grows as well. Deforestation from land demand depletes natural oxygen supply and increases CO2 levels. (Graph B) Demand for fuel for transportation, factories, and other materials grows with the population. Fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, petroleum) accounted for 74% of the United States' total GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. (Link B) Energy usage is the top contributor to GHG emissions, with a clear link to population increase. (Graph C) There is a clear correlation between Co2 production and a large population, as the most populous and industrialized countries have been shown to produce the largest GHG (CO2 specifically) emissions. The most populous country in the world, China, with a population of around 1,400,000,000 is predicted to produce about 15,000 million metric tons of Co2 by 2030. The United States, populated by about 331,000,000, is on track to produce about 5,000 million metric tons by 2030. (Graph D)

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https://overpopulation-project.com/population-growth-is-a-threat-to-the-worlds-climate/

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The climate threat is now on everyone's lips. However, it is rarely mentioned together with population growth, despite the fact that they interrelated. That is why actions to dampen population increase are missing, though they would lead to powerful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions - according to a Science article by researchers from the USA.
Researchers John Bongaarts at the Population Council in New York and Brian O'Neill at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, state that population increase was well discussed between the 1950s and the 1980s, but since then, has more or less have disappeared from the agenda. This is noticeable on several levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mentions that population growth is a factor behind climate warming, but it is silent about how to tackle the problem. In addition, in the Paris Agreement on climate change, the population problem is missing altogether. Unfortunately, many are silent on population issues. In the UN's development goals, the problem is similarly not included, says Frank Götmark, Professor of Ecology at the University of Gothenburg.

The reason for the silence, according to the new study, is political to a high degree. For many years the importance of family planning was stressed, both in order to empower women in the world and as a way to reduce birth rates. But at the global population conference in Cairo in 1994, this was toned down - largely due to resistance from conservative and religious groups from a number of mainly Muslim countries. At the same time, it became taboo in the West. People did not want to offend the poor countries, says Frank Götmark.

Nevertheless, it is striking how climate and population issues are connected. The curves of population growth and carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere since 1880 almost precisely follow each other. Population growth automatically increases energy consumption, which in turn means increased greenhouse gas emissions, says Götmark. However, this relationship is often neglected.

Many people think, for example, that population growth does not matter in poor countries because their emissions per capita are low. Nevertheless, it is a fundamental misconception, write Bongaarts and O'Neill. A dampened population growth in the world would reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the long term by 40 percent or more, according to a study in The Lancet from 2012. Another study from 2010 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that emissions could decrease by 29 percent already by 2050 by slowing population growth, which would be a crucial contribution to reducing the risks of a steep temperature rise by 2100.

Bongaarts and O'Neill point out that UN forecasts suggest that the global population will increase from today's 7.6 billion to 11.2 billion people by the year 2100 - and in the worst case, we could reach 13.3 billion. To believe this unprecedented increase will not affect the climate is to completely ignore reality, according to the researchers.

Another misconception is that family planning in poor countries is not providing any results. On the contrary, they write, different actions have proved to be surprisingly effective in some countries. One good example is Bangladesh, where access to cheap contraceptives and health care for women has led to a sharp decline in birth rates. A comparison with Pakistan is striking. In 1980, they both had almost exactly the same population: about 80 million. In 2100, the estimated population of Pakistan will be more than twice as big as Bangladesh's: 360 versus 170 million. The reason is that Pakistan has lacked family planning programs.

A third misconception is that family planning is an overly controversial action in many countries. The researchers argue that there is no reason to let that kind of controversy stand in the way of sensible actions where everyone wins in the long term - not least the poor women of the world. Frank Götmark agree with them. The problem has to be highlighted. It is absurd that the issue has fallen off the agenda, he says.

10,000 years ago, toward the end of the ice age, when people first began to farm the land, there were probably up to two million people on earth. By the time of Christ's birth 2,000 years ago, the number had risen to 200-300 million. The population grew relatively slowly over the following centuries to around one billion people around 1800. That rate increased significantly after the industrial revolution. By 1950, we were 2.5 billion people on earth. What happened after that, can not be described as anything else than a population explosion. Since 1950, over the course of 65 years, the total number of people on the planet has tripled to 7.6 billion today.

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Population growth is a threat to the world's climate - The Overpopulation Project

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The climate threat is now on everyone's lips. However, it is rarely mentioned together with population growth, despite the fact that they interrelated. That is why actions to dampen population increase are missing, though they would lead to powerful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions - according to a Science article by researchers from the USA.

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https://www.grida.no/resources/6506

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https://ourworldindata.org/ghg-emissions-by-sector

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https://rainforests.mongabay.com/09-carbon_emissions.htm

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(HP) (5) Are increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere safe for human existence? 

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(HP) (5) Are increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere safe for human existence? 

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Carbon Dioxide levels have hit record highs in recent years. Since the beginning of the industrial era in the 1850s, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have risen by nearly 49%. (Link C) Historical Co2 levels have never hit above 300 ppm (parts per million) but in the last 100 years, it has increased exponentially, with the current levels sitting at 418 ppm, as of January 16, 2022. (Graph E) High levels of carbon dioxide leads to hazardous conditions.  Co2 is the most prevalent GHG, which traps warmth within the atmosphere. (Image A) This heats the land and oceans at an increasing rate, contributing to global warming.  (Link D) High carbon dioxide levels contribute to respiratory disease from air pollution, cause more extreme weather disasters, disrupt food supply and increase wildfires. (Link E)

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https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/#:~:text=Since%20the%20beginning%20of%20the,185%20ppm%20to%20280%20ppm).

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https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-Greenhouse-Effect_fig1_237730165

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(HP) (6) What's an environmental refugee? What places will people flee from? Where will they go? 

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(HP) (6) What's an environmental refugee? What places will people flee from? Where will they go? 

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Environmental refugees are those displaced from their housing due to climate change its effects like natural disasters and global warming. When homes/cities are destroyed by weather-related disasters or the area simply becomes too dangerous to live in, the people must seek shelter and safety elsewhere. (Link F) Areas most in danger from climate change are those located near oceans or seas (Graph F+G) and those in dry climates. (Graph H+I) They would seek areas away from oceans and extreme heat. Drought-prone areas like California and the deserts in Africa would be abandoned. In the case of the Americas, they would flee inland away from the surrounding Pacific and Atlantic oceans. If Greenland's and Antarctica's glacial ice sheet were to melt, the ocean would raise an estimated 230 feet, effectively destroying cities like New York, Miami, Bangkok, and Shanghai. (Link G+H) This event would lead to a great loss of life and many environmental refugees seeking shelter. (Image B)

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https://www.c40.org/what-we-do/scaling-up-climate-action/adaptation-water/the-future-we-dont-want/sea-level-rise/

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https://www.climatecentral.org/what-we-do/our-programs/sea-level-rise

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https://www.munichre.com/topics-online/en/climate-change-and-natural-disasters/natural-disasters/wildfire-causes-losses-consequences.html

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https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/wildfire

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https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/the-worlds-coastal-cities-could-be-flooded-in-just-50-years/

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(HP) (7) Let's say after college you return to Lisle permanently for the rest of your life. We live in close proximity to the great lakes. In 50 years, would we be fleeing our area or accepting environmental refugees into our area? Explain. 

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(HP) (7) Let's say after college you return to Lisle permanently for the rest of your life. We live in close proximity to the great lakes. In 50 years, would we be fleeing our area or accepting environmental refugees into our area? Explain. 

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Many threats from climate change are posed to Chicago and the surrounding areas, some already being in effect. Elevated levels of precipitation nearly halved the normal amount of corn planted in Illinois. These new extreme levels of precipitation and storms could cause mass overflows within Lake Michigan. Wetter winters and springs are forecasted due to the warmer atmosphere holding more moisture. (Link I) This will decrease water quality as the stormwater and sewage systems are overpowered, letting contaminants such as fertilizer and waste into Lake Michigan. As other places are rising without the weight of the massive ice sheet that once covered North America, Chicago, and the Chicagoland area is slowly sinking. While the sinking is very gradual, about 4-8 inches per century, this could eventually redefine flood plains and destroy sewer systems. Eventually, Chicago will be covered by the water of Lake Michigan.  (Link J)  Even without Lisle's own share of environmental issues, accepting environmental refugees would be a challenge. Lisle is approximately 6.37 square miles, with a population of 24,233 people. (Link K) With the great number of environmental refugees in the world and Lisle's own set of climate obstacles and dangers, the town could not accept refugees and would most likely be abandoned. (Image C)

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(P) (24) How does tree ring growth or lack of growth support or refute climate changes in the last 100 years? 

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(P) (24) How does tree ring growth or lack of growth support or refute climate changes in the last 100 years? 

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Tree rings record dry and wet years, and cooler areas' tree rings width records climate. (Image A) Drought periods in history can be seen in tree rings and studied for predictions of upcoming weather. Learning weather patterns from tree rings contributes to our collective climate knowledge. (Link D)

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(CD) (8) Does the gasoline that most cars need to operate and function contribute to Earth's greenhouse effect? Explain your answer. 

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(CD) (8) Does the gasoline that most cars need to operate and function contribute to Earth's greenhouse effect? Explain your answer. 

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Highway vehicles release about 1.6 billion metric tons of GHG (mostly CO2). Each gallon of gasoline consumed creates 20 pounds of GHG. Vehicles are responsible for 51% of the average household's CO2 emissions. (Link A) The typical passenger vehicle emits about 4.6 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year. The average fuel economy of a gasoline car on the road today is 22 miles per gallon, totaling 440 pounds of GHG produced per tank of gas. (Link B) In the U.S. cars total about 29% of greenhouse gas emissions. (Graph A)

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https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions

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(CD) (9) How does an increasing consumption of and demand for meat in a human's diet relate to carbon emissions? 

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(CD) (9) How does an increasing consumption of and demand for meat in a human's diet relate to carbon emissions? 

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As the population grows, so does the demand for meat. (Graph B) Livestock increasingly outnumbers wildlife, there are currently three chickens per one human on the planet. 14.5% of global GHG emissions are produced by meat and dairy production. Cow and sheep, some of the most commonly consumed animals, are ruminants. Their stomachs are lined with tough material meant to help them digest grass and other tough materials. The digestive process results in the production of methane, which is execrated through the animal. Methane is 34x more powerful than CO2 and stays in the atmosphere much longer. (Link C) There is a clear alignment between the levels in GHG emissions and meat production. (Graph C)

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https://www.gatesnotes.com/about-bill-gates/future-of-food

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https://www.statista.com/chart/22450/meat-production-and-climate-change/

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(CD) (10) How does an increasing consumption of and demand for fish in a human's diet relate to carbon emissions? 

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(CD) (10) How does an increasing consumption of and demand for fish in a human's diet relate to carbon emissions? 

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The production of carbon emissions by wild-caught fish is considerably less than those of land livestock such as cows and sheep. (Graph D) The CO2 produced by farming cows is approximately 6x higher than those of fish farming. Eating wild-caught fish requires no land, no freshwater use, and has little impact on wildlife. Farming bivalves like oysters, mussels, and clams takes place near the shore. This requires little to no CO2 emission from the use of boats. These animals actually reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide through their development. Over half of all arable land on the planet has been cleared for agriculture or livestock. By increasing fish consumption and decreasing land-bred animal consumption, the remaining land can be saved. (Link D)

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https://oceana.org/blog/wild-seafood-has-lower-carbon-footprint-red-meat-cheese-and-chicken-according-latest-data/

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(CD) (11) Find a graphic of human-influenced carbon dioxide emissions and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. Do the graphs you found look like hockey sticks? Explain. 

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(CD) (11) Find a graphic of human-influenced carbon dioxide emissions and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. Do the graphs you found look like hockey sticks? Explain. 

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The graphic represents total emissions by year and the atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide. The graph is an exponential function, increasing distinctly more with each passing year, as GHG emissions only increase.

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(IC) (12) What can ice cores tell us about the history of Earth's climate over time? How far back in time can the ice cores provide information?

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(IC) (12) What can ice cores tell us about the history of Earth's climate over time? How far back in time can the ice cores provide information?

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Ice cores are samples of ice taken by drilling down in a glacier. (Image A) As snow falls and a glacier forms, the ice catches air in it. When ice cores are taken, information about the climate through the years can be obtained. The captured samples of the atmosphere have evidence of the air chemistry at the time. (Link A) Many ice cores have been dated back to 800,000 years ago. (Link B) Ice cores are helpful when determining the atmospheric concentration of CO2 and other GHGs in years past (Graph A)

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https://www.co2.earth/co2-ice-core-data

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(OS) (13) If the glaciers melt, where does most of that liquid (Freshwater) go? Is ocean water drinkable? Can ocean water be used to irrigate crops for 7 billion earthlings? 

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(OS) (13) If the glaciers melt, where does most of that liquid (Freshwater) go? Is ocean water drinkable? Can ocean water be used to irrigate crops for 7 billion earthlings? 

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As glaciers melt, the water released from them flows into the oceans. (Link C) The high salt level in ocean water makes it highly undrinkable for humans, as our bodies are not made to ingest water that salty. (Link D) Ocean water can be used to water crops if it has gone through a desalination process. (Image B) Putting plain ocean water on the roots of a plant will kill it. When a plant becomes desalinated it becomes drinkable. (Link E)

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https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1200488

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(OS) (14) What is ocean acidification? How has this influenced our oceans over the last 100 years?

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(OS) (14) What is ocean acidification? How has this influenced our oceans over the last 100 years?

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Ocean acidification occurs when the ocean water absorbs carbon dioxide. This process reduces PH levels, carbonate ion concentration, and important minerals. (Link F) This can be very harmful to marine life as they do not receive the support they need. Since the beginning of the industrial era, ocean ph has fallen by .1 ph units. This is approximately a 30% increase in ocean acidity. This rise in acidity is damaging organisms like coral, pteropods, and shellfish. Human-produced levels of CO2 are causing the oceans to become more acidic. (Link G) The dramatic decrease in ocean PH levels is concerning for the marine ecosystem, and largely due to human activity. (Graph B)

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https://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/OurChangingOcean.aspx

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(OS) (15) How have sea levels fluctuated over the last several thousand years? Is this driven by natural circumstances or is this caused by human influence? In your opinion, why?

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(OS) (15) How have sea levels fluctuated over the last several thousand years? Is this driven by natural circumstances or is this caused by human influence? In your opinion, why?

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From what scientists currently know, sea levels have always fluctuated. This can be due to many reasons like land formation, ice formation, and melting of glaciers. These changes have usually been very gradual. However, in the last century, the sea level has begun to rise rapidly. This correlates with the recorded melting of glaciers across the globe. 1980-2020 recorded a rise in mean sea levels by 8-9 inches. (Link H) This can be traced back to high carbon dioxide levels, or ultimately, human influence and industrialism. The expansion of factory work in the gilded age began the continually growing industry that thrives on the planet today, as did it begin the alteration of our atmosphere. The increase of the rate at which the sea level is rising started around the 1880s when carbon emissions became mainstream for production. (Graph C) The recession of glaciers and expansion of volume in the ocean is caused by global warming. The high levels of CO2 trapped within the earth's atmosphere are heating the ocean. (Link I)

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https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level#:~:text=What's%20causing%20sea%20level%20to,expanding%20as%20the%20water%20warms.

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(OS) (16) What are sea surface temperatures (SST)? Are SSTs too hot, too cold, or just right? 

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(OS) (16) What are sea surface temperatures (SST)? Are SSTs too hot, too cold, or just right? 

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Sea surface temperatures are the temperature of the water at the ocean's surface. While these temperatures may vary based on location and proximity to the equator, there are regular levels they should remain at for the benefit of marine life. (Link J) SSTs have been regularly increasing for many years, due to the average surface temperature of the planet increasing. Areas located near the equator have been setting new records of highs for SSTs. (Video A) The temperature of the sea's surface determines the conditions in which it's ecosystems survive, and any alteration is potentially hazardous. Carbon dioxide emissions in past years have heated the oceans. (Graph D)

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(SS) (17) Why is there less heat escaping into space? 

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(SS) (17) Why is there less heat escaping into space? 

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Earth's greenhouse effect traps heat in the atmosphere, allowing life to grow. (Link A) Mass amounts of emission from human activities like burning fossil fuels are being trapped in the atmosphere, resulting in a warmer climate. (Graph A) Lower albedo levels mean more of the sun's heat is being absorbed, and drastically less is being reflected into space. The mass concentration of GHG in the atmosphere is heating the earth faster than it can be radiated back to space. (Image A)

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https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/greenhousegases/industrialrevolution.html

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https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-globally-seven-hottest-years-record-were-last-seven

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(SS) (18) How does carbon dioxide trap infrared radiation on Earth? 

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(SS) (18) How does carbon dioxide trap infrared radiation on Earth? 

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The sun's energy primarily reaches the earth as visible light, and when it reaches the earth it's absorbed and redirected as infrared radiation, or heat. This energy is then reflected into space, warming the planet's temperature to a livable climate. Oxygen and nitrogen are not affected by infrared radiation. However, greenhouse gases are. Carbon dioxide (and other GHG) absorbs infrared radiation and re-emits the energy in all directions, contributing to the greenhouse effect. (Link B) Increasing levels of CO2 within the atmosphere means more heat is being redirected toward the planet, causing global warming. (Image B)

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https://ugc.berkeley.edu/background-content/greenhouse-effect/

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(SS) (19) Clouds (Water vapor) are considered a greenhouse gas. How can cloud coverage both complicate the heating of earth and also help alleviate the heating of earth?

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(SS) (19) Clouds (Water vapor) are considered a greenhouse gas. How can cloud coverage both complicate the heating of earth and also help alleviate the heating of earth?

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Clouds are a versatile element when studying the effects of climate change. Clouds have the ability to both heat and cool the earth, largely depending on the type. Clouds like marine stratus and stratocumulus cool the earth by shading 1/5 of the oceans reflecting 1/3-2/3 of the energy from the sun. Clouds can also absorb and trap heat, contributing to the increase of earth's temperatures. At night, clouds rapidly absorb heat, acting as a heating blanket from the part of the planet turned away from the sun. (Link C) Clouds that are lower in the atmosphere have a cooling effect, while higher clouds are generally responsible for the heating. (Image C)

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https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/

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(W) (20) How do El Nino weather patterns influence climate? 

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(W) (20) How do El Nino weather patterns influence climate? 

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El Nino occurs when trade winds weaken, and warm water is pushed east, toward the west coast of the Americas. Warm water causes the pacific jet stream to move south of its usual neutral position. At this time, the northern United States and Canada become dryer and warmer. The gulf coast and southeast America experience more rain and have increased flooding. (Link D) India and the Philippines also experience increased warm weather. More tropical storms occur across the Pacific ocean near the equator. (Image D)

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https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/el-nino/

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El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño is the "warm phase" of a larger phenomenon called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). La Niña, the "cool phase" of ENSO, is a pattern that describes the unusual cooling of the region's surface waters. El Niño and La Niña are considered the ocean part of ENSO, while the Southern Oscillation is its atmospheric changes.

El Niño has an impact on ocean temperatures, the speed and strength of ocean currents, the health of coastal fisheries, and local weather from Australia to South America and beyond. El Niño events occur irregularly at two- to seven-year intervals. However, El Niño is not a regular cycle, or predictable in the sense that ocean tides are.

El Niño was recognized by fishers off the coast of Peru as the appearance of unusually warm water. We have no real record of what indigenous Peruvians called the phenomenon, but Spanish immigrants called it El Niño, meaning "the little boy" in Spanish. When capitalized, El Niño means the Christ Child, and was used because the phenomenon often arrived around Christmas. El Niño soon came to describe irregular and intense climate changes rather than just the warming of coastal surface waters.

Led by the work of Sir Gilbert Walker in the 1930s, climatologists determined that El Niño occurs simultaneously with the Southern Oscillation. The Southern Oscillation is a change in air pressure over the tropical Pacific Ocean. When coastal waters become warmer in the eastern tropical Pacific (El Niño), the atmospheric pressure above the ocean decreases. Climatologists define these linked phenomena as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Today, most scientists use the terms El Niño and ENSO interchangeably.

Scientists use the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) to measure deviations from normal sea-surface temperatures. El Niño events are indicated by sea surface temperature increases of more than 0.9° Fahrenheit for at least five successive three-month seasons. The intensity of El Niño events varies from weak temperature increases (about 4-5° F) with only moderate local effects on weather and climate to very strong increases (14-18° F) associated with worldwide climatic changes.

In order to understand the development of El Niño, it's important to be familiar with non-El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Normally, strong trade winds blow westward across the tropical Pacific, the region of the Pacific Ocean located between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. These winds push warm surface water toward the western Pacific, where it borders Asia and Australia.

Due to the warm trade winds, the sea surface is normally about 0.5 meter (1.5 feet) higher and 7.2° C (12.96° F) warmer in Indonesia than Ecuador. The westward movement of warmer waters causes cooler waters to rise up toward the surface on the coasts of Ecuador, Peru, and Chile. This process is known as upwelling.

Upwelling elevates cold, nutrient-rich water to the euphotic zone, the upper layer of the ocean. Nutrients in the cold water include nitrates and phosphates. Tiny organisms called phytoplankton use them for photosynthesis, the process that creates chemical energy from sunlight. Other organisms, such as clams, eat the plankton, while predators like fish or marine mammals prey on clams.

Upwelling provides food for a wide variety of marine life, including most major fisheries. Fishing is one of the primary industries of Peru, Ecuador, and Chile. Some of the fisheries include anchovy, sardine, mackerel, shrimp, tuna, and hake.

The upwelling process also influences global climate. The warm ocean temperature in the western Pacific contributes to increased rainfall around the islands of Indonesia and New Guinea. The air influenced by the cool eastern Pacific, along the coast of South America, remains relatively dry.

El Niño Events

El Niño events are defined by their wide-ranging teleconnections. Teleconnections are large-scale, long-lasting climate anomalies or patterns that are related to each other and can affect much of the globe.

During an El Niño event, westward-blowing trade winds weaken along the Equator. These changes in air pressure and wind speed cause warm surface water to move eastward along the Equator, from the western Pacific to the coast of northern South America.

These warm surface waters deepen the thermocline, the level of ocean depth that separates warm surface water from the colder water below. During an El Niño event, the thermocline can dip as far as 152 meters (500 feet).

This thick layer of warm water does not allow normal upwelling to occur. Without an upwelling of nutrient-rich cold water, the euphotic zone of the eastern Pacific can no longer support its normally productive coastal ecosystem. Fish populations die or migrate. El Niño has a devastating impact on Ecuadorian and Peruvian economies.

El Niño also produces widespread and sometimes severe changes in the climate. Convection above warmer surface waters bring increased precipitation. Rainfall increases drastically in Ecuador and northern Peru, contributing to coastal flooding and erosion. Rains and floods may destroy homes, schools, hospitals, and businesses. They also limit transportation and destroy crops.

As El Niño brings rain to South America, it brings droughts to Indonesia and Australia. These droughts threaten the region's water supplies, as reservoirs dry and rivers carry less water. Agriculture, which depends on water for irrigation, is threatened.

Stronger El Niño events also disrupt global atmospheric circulation. Global atmospheric circulation is the large-scale movement of air that helps distribute thermal energy (heat) across the surface of Earth. The eastward movement of oceanic and atmospheric heat sources cause unusually severe winter weather at the higher latitudes of North and South America. Regions as far north as the U.S. states of California and Washington may experience longer, colder winters because of El Niño.

El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were the most intense of the 20th century. During the 1982-83 event, sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific were 7.8-12.8° C (9-18° F) above normal. These strong temperature increases caused severe climatic changes: Australia experienced harsh drought conditions; typhoons occurred in Tahiti; and record rainfall and flooding hit central Chile. The west coast of North America was unusually stormy during the winter season, and fish catches were dramatically reduced from Chile to the U.S. state of Alaska.

The El Niño event of 1997-98 was the first El Niño event to be scientifically monitored from beginning to end. The 1997-98 event produced drought conditions in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Peru experienced very heavy rains and severe flooding. In the United States, increased winter rainfall hit California, while the Midwest experienced record-breaking warm temperatures during a period known as "the year without a winter."

El Niño-related disruption of global atmospheric circulation extends beyond Pacific Rim nations. Strong El Niño events contribute to weaker monsoons in India and Southeast Asia. ENSO has even contributed to increased rainfall during the rainy season in sub-Saharan Africa.

Diseases thrive in communities devastated by natural hazards such as flood or drought. El Niño-related flooding is associated with increases in cholera, dengue, and malaria in some parts of the world, while drought can lead to wildfires that produce respiratory problems.

'Flavors' of El Niño

Variations of El Niño are referred to as "flavors." The transition period of an El Niño event, for instance, is called a "Trans Niño." Trans Niño events occur at the onset and closing of an El Niño event. Trans Niño events often include increased tornado activity in the American Midwest.

Another "flavor" of El Niño is the El Niño Modoki, or Modoki Niño. Modoki is a Japanese word meaning "similar, but different." Modoki Niño, also called the Central Pacific Niño, is characterized by changes in sea-surface temperatures in the central, not eastern, Pacific. Some Modoki Niño events are distinct from traditional El Niño events, such as increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Many meteorologists are critical of the Modoki Niño, calling for more climate models to study the proposed phenomenon.
Monitoring El Niño
Scientists, governments, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) collect data about El Niño using a number of technologies. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), for instance, operates a network of scientific buoys. These buoys measure ocean and air temperatures, currents, winds, and humidity. The buoys are located at about 70 locations in the southern Pacific Ocean, from the Galapagos Islands to Australia.

These buoys transmit data daily to researchers and forecasters around the world. Using data from the buoys, along with visual imagery they receive from satellite imagery, scientists are able to more accurately predict El Niño and visualize its development and impact around the globe.

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El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

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(W) (21) Characterize the weather patterns of the United States in the last decade.  (2010-2020)

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(W) (21) Characterize the weather patterns of the United States in the last decade.  (2010-2020)

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Climate:
The earth's climate is consistently increasing, and the decade of 2010-2020 has been shown to be the hottest on record for the United States. (Link E) Average high and low temperatures for seasons have been increasing with each passing year. The U.S. climate normals from the past decade reveal that nearly everywhere in America's average temperature is 1° higher than the average in the 20th century. (Image E+F)
Weather:
The United States has seen a dramatic rise in weather-related catastrophes in the last decade. Weather-related disasters such as hurricanes and wildfires have great impact upon the lives of civilians. Major disasters inflict damages that can cost upwards of one billion dollars. (Image G) The frequency of these disasters has also surged, making recovery more difficult. (Graph B)

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How the Climate System Works: Ice Albedo

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Animated Maps: Ten Years of Sea Surface Temperatures