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Canada seems to be very similar to Australia in its addressing and ‘commitments’ to climate action.

One on hand the Trudeau government takes a hard-line on the necessity to introduce climate friendly policy and transition the economy to renewable energy sources - a step long overdue since Canada already has the capacity to be renewable.

On the other hand- while accepting the terror that the warming climate will bring and promoting themselves internationally as doing something about it - the government has continued to approve high emitting projects such as the Pacific Northwest LNG Project.

Finding out what the Canadian government is actually up to in regards to its climate policy and its commitments to the Paris Agreement has been difficult since it involves a lot of combing through aesthetically presented though large worded and repetitive government reports which don’t actually seem to say anything or take any particular position.

It has been helpful to find NGO sources like the Climate Action Network who analyse and summarise the motions or commitments that the Canadian government makes in relation to climate change and collects the reactions and criticisms of civil society members to these directives, recently most are concerning the Pan-Canadian Framework on Climate Change which is the domestic answer to the Paris negotiations.

http://climateactionnetwork.ca/

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Canada, similar to Australia seems to make very light or empty commitments to climate change and the transitioning of their economy = t

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Canada, similar to Australia seems to make very light or empty commitments to climate change and the transitioning of their economy = t

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Arctic Ocean shipping routes 'to open for months'

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Arctic Ocean shipping routes 'to open for months'

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A new study suggests the shipping routes across the Arctic are going to open up significantly in this century, even with a reduction CO2 emissions.

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Shipping routes across the Arctic are going to open up significantly this century even with a best-case reduction in CO2 emissions, a new study suggests.

University of Reading, UK, researchers have investigated how the decline in sea-ice, driven by warmer temperatures, will make the region more accessible.

They find that by 2050, opportunities to transit the Arctic will double for non ice-strengthened vessels.

These open-water ships will even be going right over the top at times.

And if CO2 emissions are not curtailed - if the aspirations of the Paris Agreement to keep global temperature rise "well below two degrees" are not implemented - then moderately ice-strengthened vessels could be routinely ploughing across the Arctic by late century for perhaps 10-12 months of the year.

"The reduction in summer sea-ice, perhaps the most striking sign of climate change, may also provide economic opportunities," commented Reading's Dr Nathanael Melia.

"There is renewed interest in trans-Arctic shipping because of potentially reduced costs and journey times between Asia and the Atlantic. So far only a few commercial vessels have utilised these routes as they are not currently reliably open."

The two maps above look at the possibilities come mid-century

Pink routes are those taken by moderately ice-strengthened vessels

Blue transits are those available to non-specialised shipping

By 2050, these open-water vessels are taking more central routes

Sea-ice is in a committed, long-term decline as the polar north warms.

The traditional September minimum extent is about to be set in the coming days, and this year looks on course to be the second lowest in the satellite record.

Researchers do not see this trend being reversed anytime soon.

"If we experience a 2-degree increase in global temperatures, we will get close to an Arctic that is effectively ice-free for part of the year; that's less than a million sq km of ice cover," said Reading's Dr Ed Hawkins.

"So, even if future emissions are consistent with the Paris agreement, it will of course mean shipping routes will be more open. Not every year, but more regularly than they are now."

"Open water vessels won't be hugging the Russian coast quite so much, and ice-strengthened ships will be going right over the pole," he told BBC News.

Saving time

The incentives are clear: if vessels can transit the Arctic, they will shave many days off their journey times between the Pacific and North Atlantic ports, and save fuel.

In addition, by plotting a more central course, they can avoid the fees they would otherwise be charged for going through Siberian waters.

The team has been looking at how the opportunities might evolve in the decades ahead.

The group used five prominent climate computer models and essentially trained them to better reflect the distribution of Arctic sea-ice as seen in current observations.

They then ran those models forward through the century under different emissions scenarios, to gauge where and how frequently shipping routes would become navigable.

For European shipping companies currently moving cargo through the Suez canal to and from East Asia to Rotterdam, say, the average journey time tends to take a minimum of about 30 days.

But under a Paris-style future, an Arctic shortcut could shave this to 23 days by mid-century and 22 days by late century for non specialised vessels.

And under a high emissions scenario, these transit times come down further to 20 days by 2050 and 17 days by 2100.

The gains are not so great for North Atlantic ports, such as New York, because a route through the fabled North West Passage is not so much shorter than using the Panama Canal - but the Reading team still finds several days' advantage in going by way of the Arctic.

Another key finding from the research is the way the shipping season in the far north will extend as the period of low-ice conditions grows.

The team says that, for a high emissions scenario, trans-Arctic shipping could be potentially commonplace by late century, with navigable routes available even to open water vessels for perhaps 4-8 months a year.

For a low emissions scenario, where global temperatures are stabilised at less than 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the frequency with which open-water vessels can make the transits is much wider than today at 2-4 months.

The Reading scientists stress there will always be some sea-ice, especially in winter, and that year-to-year the conditions could be highly variable.

Shipping companies, they say, will weigh several factors before picking a route (e.g. fuel costs, weather, insurance, draft restrictions, cargo type, etc), and may well conclude on occasions that the time saved by going across the Arctic is still not worth it.

This will be especially so if they think there is a possibility of unprotected vessels running into free, fast-moving ice floes.

It is a point picked up by Rachel Tilling, who studies sea-ice using the Cryosat spacecraft. This European Space Agency mission produces quick-turn-around maps of floe thickness.

"Now there's evidence that Arctic shipping routes are opening, those wishing to use them will need to know how thick the ice is on a day-to-day basis. We provide this information through our near-real-time data service, which we launched to aid science and maritime activities in the Arctic," the University College of London researcher said.

A paper detailing the Reading study appears in Geophysical Research Letters.

Jonathan.Amos-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk and follow me on Twitter: @BBCAmos

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Arctic Ocean shipping routes 'to open for months' - BBC News

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Shipping routes across the Arctic are going to open up significantly this century even with a best-case reduction in CO2 emissions, a new study suggests. University of Reading, UK, researchers have investigated how the decline in sea-ice, driven by warmer temperatures, will make the region more accessible.

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Canada and IFC (International Finance Corporation) have a climate change program, IFC is part World Bank group. This program was established in 2011 (IFC 2016), the program is a partnership between the Government of Canada (GoC) and IFC. The program is encourage the private sector to finance for clean energy (IFC 2016). Agreements between the GoC and IFC resulted in a contribution of CN$285,720,000 for concessional investments and CN$5,830,000 to fund advisory services and technical assistance projects (IFC 2016). In 2013 an additional CN$60,272,000 was contributed as part of Canada’s investment in to the Catalyst Fund (IFC 2016).

In June 30, 2016 the program have $335 millions USD concessional finance, $154 millions USD are from 18 investments and $76.5 millions USD are committed to the IFC Catalyst Fund. They are $5.8 millions USD went to the Advisory Services, in June 30, 2016 there have 20 advisory projects. The fund borrowed 1 billion USD from third- party financing between 22 countries (IFC 2016).

As of June 30, 2016 the fund have 18 investments in 14 different countries, their $154 millions USD funded those program(IFC 2016). There are 20 advisory program in 11 different countries, the Fund funded $5.8 millions USD in to the Advisory Services.

Antonio Tse

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Naledi
Environmentalists as well as indigenous peoples have questioned the Trudeau government’s recent approval of the Pacific Northwest LNG Project.

The $36 billion natural gas project is expected to ship about 19 million tonnes a year of liquefied gas to markets in Asia but through that it will pump more than 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually into the atmosphere and thus turning it into the largest greenhouse gas emitter in Canada according to Canada’s Environmental Assessment Agency.
An assessment draft found that about 5.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year for 30 years without taking into account the 6.5 - 8.7 million produced from natural gas collections & transportation. These findings go against Canada’s prior pledge to reduce its emissions by 30% from 2005 to 2030.However regardless of the concerns expressed by environmentalist on its impact on not only climate change but also salmon habitats, the government's asserts its decision by labelling it a key economic driver for Canada as a whole

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impact of climate change on the indigenous people

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Mitigation
Canada has a #welcome refugee policy settling more than 25 000 Syrian refugees resettled in Canada between November 2015 and February 2016, with a further 15 000 throughout 2016. The intake of Syrian refugees is continuing through 2017.

As Canada has structures, systems and processes already in place for the integration of refugees into Canadian life, Canada will agree to take up to 25, 000  refugees from climate change per year. Current Kiribati population is just over 100, 000 so all should be able to be resettled in Canada within 5 years or so. Canada has a range of re settlement services which are available to all refugees until they become Canadian citizens.
Wendy

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Carbon tax implemented in British Columbia in 2012 and has reduced carbon emissions between 5-15% before 2015.  Justin Trudeau has said that all provinces are to implement carbon tax by 2018 and if the Federal govt will enforce a carbon tax upon each province.
Is JT approving pipe lines?
wendy

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Vancouver, British Columbia

The victory of climate change-denying Republican candidate Donald Trump was one of two big setbacks for U.S. climate policy earlier this month. The other was the resounding defeat of Washington State's Initiative 732, which sought to prove that using fees on carbon emissions to cut existing taxes could provide bipartisan appeal for what economists consider to be the most efficient mechanism to cut greenhouse gas emissions: carbon taxes.

Washington State rejected the idea of a carbon tax by 59 percent to 41. In sharp contrast, just across the world's longest border, carbon taxes are attracting politically diverse support. Four-fifths of Canadians will live in provinces with such taxes in 2017, and in 2018 all Canadians could be paying a carbon tax.

Both Washington State's defeated initiative and Canada's growing comfort with carbon pricing have their origins in North America's first carbon tax, which British Columbia's provincial government launched in 2008. The British Columbia tax started at C$10 (U.S.$7.40) per metric ton of carbon dioxide on fossil fuels consumed in the province, and it ratcheted up to C$30 per metric ton by 2012. The tax is revenue-neutral, with proceeds used to cut corporate and personal income taxes.

Most academic studies find that British Columbia's tax is reducing carbon emissions by 5 to 15 percent without hurting economic growth, and that a special tax break to offset its impact on low-income families has succeeded. "The tax appears to be highly progressive," says Nicholas Rivers, an expert in energy and economic modeling at the University of Ottawa.

Likewise, the Washington tax was to start next year at $15 per metric ton (adding, for example, about 15 cents to every gallon of gasoline), then rise to $25 in 2018 and grow annually thereafter by a further 3.5 percent plus inflation until it reached $100 per ton. Revenues were to cut existing taxes and provide tax benefits for low-income families.

The initiative garnered strong grassroots support as well as endorsements from Democratic and Republican legislators, including former Republican Senator Slade Gorton and Joe Fitzgibbon, who chairs the state legislature's environment committee. But the Washington initiative was opposed by both fossil fuel interests as well as advocacy groups that favored spending carbon revenues on development projects to ensure a "just" transition to a low-carbon economy.

In Canada, meanwhile, politicians from all major parties are pushing carbon taxes nationwide. Last month Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that his Liberal Party government will institute a national carbon tax plan in 2018. And last week a contender for leader of the official opposition in Parliament, Canada's Conservative Party, unveiled a more ambitious carbon tax.

Provincial leaders have done much of the heavy lifting already. Canada's two largest western provinces will have carbon taxes operating as of January 1, when Alberta follows British Columbia's lead with a C$20 per metric ton carbon levy that's set to rise to C$30 in 2018. And as of March, Canada's eastern heavyweights Ontario and Quebec will auction carbon credits under a cap-and-trade market that California kicked off in 2012.

Trudeau's national carbon tax plan encourages the remaining provinces to operate their own programs, and mandates that all attain a minimum carbon price that ratchets up from C$10 in 2018 to C$50 in 2022.

Conservative parliamentarian Michael Chong wants to push carbon taxes to C$130 per metric ton in 2030, providing the policy certainty that he says businesses need to plan investments. And whereas some provinces such as Quebec and Ontario are using carbon revenues to fund programs, Chong's plan mirrors the revenue neutrality of British Columbia's carbon tax. "Every last cent will be used to introduce one of the largest income tax cuts in Canadian history," vows Chong.

Whereas some Conservative Party politicians see carbon taxes as out-of-step, given U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's vows to scrap U.S. climate change policies, Chong says income tax cuts funded by carbon taxes look even more strategic after Trump's victory. "It's clear that Trump's plan is to significantly cut ... income taxes. In order to maintain our competitiveness, we need to match those cuts," says Chong.

Chong argues that his ambitious $130 per ton carbon tax can, on its own, achieve Canada's promise under the Paris Agreement to cut emissions 30 percent by 2030 from its 2005 level. He proposes therefore to cut existing regulations on carbon, such as vehicle efficiency standards and carbon dioxide standards that mandate carbon capture for new coal-fired power plants.

However, polls reveal high levels of public opposition to the carbon taxes. That unpopularity, for one, could threaten Alberta Premier Rachel Notley. Oil sands producers such as Shell, Cenovus Energy, and Suncor Energy back her levy, which provides rebates that soften its impact on fossil fuel exports. But low oil prices have decimated the province's economy. Two-thirds of Albertans oppose the tax, according to polling last month.

Mark Jaccard, an energy economist at Simon Fraser University who helped craft the British Columbia tax, sees a "50/50 chance" that Notley's modest carbon tax will get her unelected. It could also go the other way, says Jaccard, if a political attack on climate policy by Donald Trump inspires further climate action by major U.S. states. That could include more states, including Washington and Oregon, joining forces with California, Quebec, and Ontario in their growing carbon market.

Credit

Photograph by Bruce Bennett | Getty

Peter Fairley Guest Contributor

Peter Fairley is a contributing editor at ... MIT Technology Review who sees smarter energy use as the key to stopping climate change. He has tracked emerging energy technologies for over a decade at publications including Discover, More Spectrum, and Nature. He spends a third of his time reporting from Paris and has also worked from the field in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Between 2001 and 2013 Fairley served as a board member and officer of the Society of Environmental Journalists.

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Canada moves ahead on carbon taxes, leaving the U.S. behind

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The victory of climate change-denying Republican candidate Donald Trump was one of two big setbacks for U.S. climate policy earlier this month. The other was the resounding defeat of Washington State's Initiative 732, which sought to prove that using fees on carbon emissions to cut existing taxes could provide bipartisan appeal for what economists consider to be the most efficient mechanism to cut greenhouse gas emissions: carbon taxes.

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contribution to intergovernmental panel on climate change

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contribution to intergovernmental panel on climate change

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Canada is an active participant in the IPCC. Many Canadian experts from government, universities, the private sector and other organizations make significant contributions to the preparation of IPCC assessment reports. Canada also has members on the IPCC Bureau, the Task Force Bureau on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and the Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis.
-Naledi

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Observed changes in Canada: Consistent with global changes

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Observed changes in Canada: Consistent with global changes

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Longer growing season

More heat waves and fewer cold spells

Thawing permafrost

Earlier river ice break-up

Increase in precipitation over large parts of Canada, more snowfall in northwest Arctic

Earlier spring runoff

Earlier budding of trees

Indigenous people of the Arctic are no longer able to predict the weather as their forefathers did (Society for Ecological Restoration).

Naledi

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Natalie

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preliminary research Canada and Climate Change

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Greenland melt ice affecting Nunavet people - flooding communities / affecting earth's gravitational pull
In attached article is link to a peer reviewed paper:
Recent increases in Arctic freshwater flux affects Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning circulation
Wendy

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The melting of the Greenland ice sheet due to climate change is having an impact on ocean circulation and rising sea levels, according to new studies from university researchers across North America.

"It was well known that Greenland's ice was melting, it was well known that that melting was accelerating, and it was well known that extra melting was changing the salinity of the North Atlantic Ocean," said Tim Dixon, a Canadian professor in the department of geophysics at the University of South Florida, who recently co-authored a study published in Nature Communications.

Dixon said that when ice melts, it deposits fresh water into the ocean that dilutes the salt in the North Atlantic.

"What was not known is what effect if any that would have on ocean circulation," he said.

Previous studies had suggested that the impact of the melting Greenland ice on North Atlantic circulation would be minimal, at least for the next 50 years, Dixon said, because the amount of fresh water going into the North Atlantic was thought to be too small to disrupt the ocean circulation.

"The accelerated melting of Greenland is adding so much fresh water to the North Atlantic that it's starting to affect the basic ocean structure in the Labrador Sea."

But it's not just the Labrador sea that is affected.

"We think those changes are big enough that they're starting to affect the overall global circulation pattern of the ocean," Dixon said.

'Fractions of the globe might become unlivable'

Altering the circulation pattern of the ocean can have drastic long-term implications, Dixon said.

"In the extreme case of a breakdown in this global ocean circulation pattern, equatorial regions could become much hotter than they are today and polar regions could become much colder than they are today, and significant fractions of the globe might become unlivable."

These changes are some of the first alarming signals of the possible effects of climate change, Dixon said.

"This is the first hint that these effects are starting a bit faster than people had imagined and implying that we need to get our act together and do something about this," he said.

"Which means we have to stop putting so much CO2 into the atmosphere."

Ice melt changing earth's gravity field

William Colgan of York University in Toronto has also been studying the rate of the Greenland ice melt and its effects on the ocean. In a recent study, published in the journal , he looked at historical data and compared it to new information gathered from expeditions in 2012, 2013 and 2015.

"The ice sheet didn't really start to accelerate and lose a lot more mass until the year 2000," he said.

"The rate of mass loss that the ice sheet is now exhibiting, post 2010, is somewhere in the neighbourhood of three times higher than the rate of mass loss prior to the 1980s."

Greenland is losing about 8,300 tonnes of ice per second each day - ice that is melting on land and running into the water, as well as icebergs that are being discharged into Baffin Bay, said Colgan.

"That's a rapid, rapid mass loss that's occurring in Greenland right now and it's actually changing the Earth's gravity field so quickly that we can detect it with satellite."

Colgan said that just like the moon pulls tides around the Earth with its gravity, by being relatively massive, Greenland pulls water towards it. As Greenland gets smaller, the ocean water flows farther away towards the equator, in what is called a gravitational far-field.

Implications for Nunavut

Colgan said this change will have implications for places close to Greenland like Nunavut.

"Actually close to Greenland, sea level rise is negative,or sea level is dropping, in part because the gravitational field is weakening so quickly that the water in the ocean is migrating to more gravitationally massive places on Earth."

Colgan said the sea level has been decreasing in Frobisher Bay at around one centimetre per year, an effect that can be as damaging as sea level rise.

"Iqaluit will not be flooded out by rising sea level but to have the harbour in Iqaluit, which is already really shallow, get shallower at one centimetre per year going forward, that can also be a very damaging sequence of sea level change," he said.

The melting of Greenland ice also produces more icebergs which are being discharged from the glaciers on land.

"There's actually more icebergs now being spat out into Baffin Bay and floating around as potential navigation hazards than there were 50 or even 10 years ago," said Colgan.

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Melting Greenland ice changing Earth's gravity

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The melting of the Greenland ice sheet due to climate change is having an impact on ocean circulation and rising sea levels, according to new studies from university researchers across North America.

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more variance in crops -eg citrus.
Wendy

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Shoppers walking down the produce aisle in search of peaches for their grandmother's famed summertime pie may soon check the price tag and find something they've never seen before: "Country of Origin Canada."

As climate change warms the planet and growing regions shift further north, more fruits and vegetables - even citrus fruits - could start making the journey to the United States from Canada. Extreme winter cold and shorter growing seasons historically have prevented certain crops from being grown there, but as temperatures rise and first frosts happen later, the time could be ripe for Canadian farmers to expand their ranges.

A soybean field just outside Mississauga, Ontario.
Credit: Mo Ghorvei/flickr

"We're seeing that here in Canada, particularly in Southern Ontario, people are pushing the limits," John Pedlar, a Canadian Forest Service biologist, said. Pedlar helped author a study last year that found that a shift in growing regions may be more closely tied to climate change than previously thought.

"We're starting to see a lot more grapes grown up here," said Pedlar, whose work was published in the journal BioScience. "People are trying their hand at things like peaches a little further north from where they have been trying. Presumably, that kind of thing is just going to increase."

The lowest temperature lows have helped U.S. farmers and gardeners determine what species they can plant - and when they can plant them - for decades. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first Plant Hardiness Zone Map (PHZM) in the early 1960s, and over the years, the map's recommended zones have been based on the average extreme minimum temperatures over a prescribed number of years.

The latest release, the 2012 PHZM, is, on the whole, warmer by one half zone compared to the 1990 map, according to the researchers who developed it. While climate change likely played a role in this shift, they believe the change is primarily due to the more refined modeling and data gathering techniques they used. For example, the 2012 map used the average minimum temperature from 1976 to 2005, while the 1990 map used the average minimum temperature from 1975 to 1986.

Nir Krakauer, a City College of New York professor, believes the USDA's findings may be more tied to climate change than the researchers originally thought.

Krakauer authored a 2012 study that relied on the actual annual minimum temperatures, rather than the average minimum temperature over a period of years, to determine plant hardiness zones. Using this methodology, he found that the annual rate of change of the extreme minimum temperature increased 2.5 times faster since 1970 than the mean temperature rate; therefore, more than one-third of the United States has shifted half-zones since 1970, compared to the USDA map's calculation of one-fifth of the United States.

Canadian plant hardiness (PH) zone maps for (a) 1931-1960, (b) 1981-2010, and (c) the difference between those (1981-2010 minus 1931-1960).
Click image to enlarge: Credit: American Institute of Biological Sciences

"It was interesting how much warming there's been in some regions as far as the winter minimum temperature went. In a lot of cases, it's warmed much faster than the average temperature over the whole year," said Krakauer, who updates his projections each year with the previous year's data. With more data, Krakauer's projections become more accurate.

"Because of the cold temperatures in the Northeast in the last couple years, our trend estimates have gone down a little bit. So we estimate a little less warming than we would have a couple years ago," he said.

Canadian researchers are finding similar results, and the country's farmers are taking advantage of the minimum temperature rise.

The Canadian Plant Hardiness Zone Maps are similar to the USDA's, but they take more variables into account, such as the average frost free period and average maximum snow depth. The newest incarnation of the Canadian PHZM showed that when comparing the numbers from 1931 to 1960 to the numbers from 1981 to 2010, the average of the lowest daily temperatures of the coldest month increased by 1.5 degrees Celsius; the frost free period increased by 11 days, on average.

The changes give Canadian farmers more leeway in the plants they can grow, Pedlar said. Even crops like corn and soybeans, which require longer, warmer growing seasons, are now being grown in Canadian spaces they previously couldn't.

Paul Bullock, a University of Manitoba professor, authored a 2011 study that used computer simulations to determine how rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures would contribute to the growth of corn. Relying on data from 12 weather stations across the Canadian prairies, he found that warming from the 1920s to 2000 has allowed farmers to plant corn and soybeans in Western Canada, an area that has traditionally been too cold for these crops.

Canadian peaches like these could soon become a more common sight in U.S. stores.
Credit: bagaball/flickr

Although the data showed a trend toward warming, there is also great temperature variability each year, Bullock said. Even so, the data can give farmers an idea of the risk involved in planting certain crops.

"At the moment, our analysis is saying that grain corn is not something that could be produced extensively without quite a reasonable amount of climate risk associated with it, despite the sort of changes that we've seen over the longer term," Bullock said.

Dan McKenney, a researcher and team leader at the Canadian Forest Service's Great Lakes Forestry Center, said this variability will force farmers to be more risk averse and adapt more quickly.

"One thing that we did see was that there are still risks for late spring frosts that can affect plants, and some plant species are more susceptible to that than others. Making use of that type of knowledge by planting certain species or hybrids that are more hearty to later frosts would be a big thing as far as risk management," McKenney said.

Despite this good news, Bullock remains fearful as to what climate change could bring next for farmers.

"I'm not sure we're ready to handle the variability that seems to be coming along with some of the changes," he said. "Variability is what kills us in agriculture. When one year is this way and the next year it's totally the opposite, how do you adapt to that? That's extremely difficult to do."

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Industrial Farming Plows Up Brazil's 'Underground Forest'

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Climate Change Brings New Crops to Canadian Farms

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Shoppers walking down the produce aisle in search of peaches for their grandmother's famed summertime pie may soon check the price tag and find something they've never seen before: "Country of Origin Canada." As climate change warms the planet and growing regions shift further north, more fruits and vegetables - even citrus fruits - could start making the journey to the United States from Canada.

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Benefits and Challenges;
Benefits: increased livestock production, lower feed costs, higher survival rate of young and lower energy costs.
Challenges increased drought -decrease in crop yield. Increased prevalence  of pests and pathogens
Wendy

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So how will climate change impact Canada and Canadian agriculture?

Numerous studies of the impact of climate change suggest that most regions of Canada are projected to warm during the next 60 years.

A changing climate can have both positive and negative impacts on agriculture. These changes can impact a number of different levels of the sector ranging from individual plants and animals, right up to entire global networks.

Opportunities

This warming may provide opportunities for agriculture in certain regions with an expansion of the growing season to go along with milder and shorter winters. This could increase productivity and allow the use of new and potentially more profitable crops.

For a high-latitude country like Canada, the warming is expected to be more pronounced than the global average. Northern regions and the southern and central Prairies will see more warming than other regions. Most regions will likely be warmer with longer frost-free seasons and increased evaporation and plant transpiration from the surface into the atmosphere.

These warmer temperatures would also benefit livestock production in the form of lower feed requirements, increased survival rates of the young and lower energy costs.

Climate change could improve soil quality by enhancing carbon sequestration and reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases by changes to land-use from annual crop production to perennial crops and grazing lands.

Using information produced by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global circulation model for the three Prairie Provinces under two conditions, current climate and future climate, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) scientists predicted in 2004 that under a future climate, on average, high temperatures would increase by 2ºC to 3ºC and low temperatures increase by about 3ºC.

When compared to the current climate, the model predicted that precipitation was to increase by three to seven per cent.

The results suggested that Alberta would benefit the most from increased summer and winter precipitation. However, eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba would experience little change or smaller increases. Since there is a growing-season moisture deficit in much of the Prairie region, even slight declines in the availability of moisture could significantly harm crop production.

Challenges

However, one of the concerns is that climate change could have significant negative impacts including the increased intensity and frequency of droughts and violent storms.

As the frequency of events like droughts increases under climate change, crop yields would decrease. This would increase the vulnerability of producers to climate change, particularly in semi-arid regions of Canada.

Extreme events like the 2001 and 2002 droughts and floods of 2010 and 2011 can have a devastating impact on crop yields where yields could be reduced by as much as 50 per cent of the average yields during normal or more suitable growing conditions.

Warmer summers could also cause problems for livestock producers related to heat-wave deaths. This is especially true in poultry operations. Other impacts could be reduced milk production and reduced reproduction in the dairy industry, as well as, reduced weight gain in beef cattle.

In addition, droughts and floods could reduce pasture availability and the production of forage, forcing producers to find alternative feed sources or reduce their herd size.

There are several possible effects climate change could also have on crop pests and disease. These would include increased weed growth due to higher levels of atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO ₂) and an increased prevalence of pests and pathogens in livestock and crops. The increased range, frequency and severity of insect and disease infestations are also potential impacts.

While these changes will not have large effects on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from crop production systems; they could cause an increase in energy use associated with the manufacture, transportation and application of pesticides.

Date modified:

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however eastern saskatchewan; other impacts; current climate; future climate;climate change

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Impact of climate change on Canadian agriculture

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So how will climate change impact Canada and Canadian agriculture? Numerous studies of the impact of climate change suggest that most regions of Canada are projected to warm during the next 60 years. A changing climate can have both positive and negative impacts on agriculture.

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** Good Interview with researcher 5 mins Eric Solomon
Sea Ice decreasing by 40% faster than anticipated.

People in the north really rely on sea ice. They use it as their highway," said Solomon, who worked in Canada's Far North for six years.

With the sea ice melting, people living in the Arctic can find themselves cut off from communities
Wendy

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Don't forget about the Arctic in the fight against climate change, says Eric Solomon

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Don't forget about the Arctic in the fight against climate change, says Eric Solomon

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Changes will greatly affect the Nunavat people including:
Traditional Activities

Elders not able to read weather patterns now

Travel routes unreachable/ unsafe

Food Security

less access to traditional foods/ city foods not as healthy, expensive, distribution

Food storage in winter

more contaminants (esp mercury) making way into food chain

increased fish varieties in warmer waters also bring parasites and new predators

Health and Diseases

'zoonotic diseases' diseases that are spread from animals to humans -previously ice etc caused natural

barriers.

Infrastructure

infrastructure (roads, pipelines, airstrips etc) built on permafrost now becoming unstable

increasing govt cost of upgrading existing permafrost

Transportation

decreasing ice thickness.

increasing shipping season through northwest passage increases risk of spills and pollution incidents.

change in freeze/ thaw cycle

Impacts on Heritage & Special Places
Wendy

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What is Climate Change Impact?

Climate Change Impact is a way of looking at the effects climate change has on the people and environment of Nunavut, over time.

Almost every part of life in the region will be touched by climate change. It's important to be aware of these changes in order to deal with impacts that have already happened and prepare for those that will most likely take place.

For example, decreasing ice could allow increased shipping through Arctic waterways, including the Northwest Passage. While this may mean economic benefits for Nunavut, it can also raise the risk of oil and chemical spills. Increased land-use activities and natural resource development, together with population growth and an expanding economy, mean we must plan to ensure environmental sustainability in the future.

Impacts on Culture, Health and Well-being

For centuries, Inuit have maintained a close relationship with ice ( siku), land ( nuna), sky ( qilak), and wildlife ( uumajut). Inuit rely on innovative survival skills adapted to the unique climate and weather of the Arctic. Rapid environmental changes will continue to affect Inuit culture and the well-being of all Nunavummiut.

Nunavummiut are part of a complex social and environmental system. Climate change in Nunavut cannot be addressed without considering other factors. Communities' ability to cope and adapt to climate change will be limited by factors such as housing, poverty, food security, language, modernization, and the erosion of traditional land-based skills. All of these factors have direct impacts on the maintenance of Inuit cultural identity, and the well-being of Nunavummiut.

Impacts on Traditional Activities

Many Nunavummiut depend on hunting, fishing and gathering to support themselves and the local economy in their communities. Local hunting practices have already changed and new technologies are increasingly relied upon.

Inuit elders, who traditionally used their skills to predict the weather, have observed changing cloud and wind patterns (see Voices From the Land for direct quotes from elders on the changes they have witnessed). Their weather and climate-related knowledge does not fit with today's weather conditions and patterns. Unpredictable weather and climate has increased the risk of travelling on the land. This has made it very difficult for elders to pass along their weather prediction skills to younger generations.

Some traditional travel routes are now unreachable, preventing the use of traditional camp sites. According to many elders and community members, decreasing water levels make travelling by boat more difficult. The early melt of lakes, rivers and sea ice make travel routes unsafe in the spring, and thawing permafrost makes travel by ATV in the summertime more difficult.

Impacts on Food Security

Climate change's projected impacts include less access to wildlife and more safety risks from changes in sea ice thickness and distribution, permafrost conditions and extreme weather events. This means traditional food security may be significantly affected.

The shift from country food to expensive, store-bought, and often unhealthy food items has had negative effects on Inuit health and cultural identity. Climate change can make this problem even worse.

Food storage is also affected by warmer temperatures and thawing permafrost. Interviews with elders suggest that outdoor meat caches, which used to remain fresh and preserved in the cold, now spoil.

Country food is still the healthiest food choice for Nunavummiut. However, climate change may increase human exposure to contaminants. A shifting climate can change air and water currents that bring contaminants into the Arctic.Also, changes in ice cover and thawing permafrost appear to have contributed to increased mercury levels in some northern lakes. This results in more contaminants making their way into plants, animals, and ultimately humans.

Impacts on Health and Diseases

Diseases that can be transmitted from animals to humans (scientists call them "zoonotic diseases") are expected to rise as temperatures warm. Previously isolated animal species may come in contact with each other when natural barriers like ice or snow decrease from climate change. This can increase the spread of diseases.

Extreme weather and natural hazards are both direct impacts on human health from a changing climate. Unpredictable weather patterns may cause more accidents and emergency situations. Search and rescue missions are affected, as searches are often held back by these unpredictable weather patterns.

Impacts on Heritage and Special Places

Heritage and special places in Nunavut are being affected by permafrost degradation and increased coastal erosion caused by the late freezing of sea ice. The cold Arctic climate helps preserve organic material frozen in permafrost. If the permafrost changes, it will ruin cultural remains and archaeological artifacts that were previously preserved. Ongoing freeze-thaw cycles promote the decay of artifacts such as sod houses (many of which hold their form because of permafrost) and other historical resources, such as sites relating to European exploration of the Arctic. Naturally occurring coastal erosion is expected get worse as sea levels rise. This will threaten historic sites on southern Baffin Island, northern Victoria Island and the western high Arctic islands, where little archaeological surveying has been done.

Nunavut has seen more tourists who want to experience our unique Arctic environment and visit heritage sites, parks and special places. Nunavut's historic and archaeological resources are key attractions for cruise ships and other visitors. Their deterioration can negatively impact tourism.

Impacts on Infrastructure

Over the past several decades, we have used the unique properties of frozen ground, or permafrost, to our advantage. We tailored the engineering of buildings around the characteristics of frozen ground. Permafrost presents challenges to the construction, operation and maintenance of buildings, airports, roads and other northern infrastructure.

As a result, changes in permafrost, ice conditions, precipitation, drainage patterns, temperatures, and extreme weather events can have negative results for infrastructure designed for permafrost conditions.

Permafrost thaw can cause building foundations to shift and become weak. Frozen ground provides a secure foundation. If it does not stay frozen, its strength and integrity - or ability to support a building, pipeline, road or airstrip - may be affected. Older facilities may be more vulnerable because climate change was not considered when these structures were built.

The impacts of climate change are expected to become a major burden on government resources. Municipal infrastructure impacted by degrading permafrost (for example, sinking/cracking buildings) may divert resources from building new infrastructure. Engineering and construction practices for building on changing permafrost are being developed. However, these changing practices will affect the cost of both construction and maintenance of current and future infrastructure.

Pipelines, roads and airstrips, which also rely on permafrost for structural integrity, are experiencing stresses from shifting and thawing grounds. Eventually, these will need to be repaired due to changing freeze and thaw conditions.

Although new infrastructure is being designed to suit a changing environment, existing water and waste containment facilities may not have been designed for current and future warming trends. These facilities and other naturally-occurring containment structures may fail, with possible impacts on the environment and human health.

Land-use activities contribute to changes in the structure of the ground and permafrost by altering the amount of sunlight absorption, and changing the flow of water. This can cause collapsed roadways, and shifting building foundations. Avoiding this will involve a great deal of planning to make sure that infrastructural integrity is maintained. Environmental changes and effects on permafrost are presently considered in community land-use planning and climate change adaptation plans. Current data and tools being developed will continue to provide information to design appropriate, sustainable infrastructure that works in a changing climate.

Impacts on Transportation

Decreasing sea ice thickness and cover will open areas of land and water that have been inaccessible. This will lead to more shipping and industrial activities. While a longer summer shipping season will generate more economic opportunities for Nunavut, it will also increase risks to the environment, most notably through spills and other pollution incidents.

Other transportation-related challenges have been identified. For example, sea ice changes present challenges to traditional snowmobile or dog team transportation routes. New or alternate routes will be needed to continue safe traditional hunting and recreational activities.

Degrading permafrost and changing freeze-thaw cycles have visibly shifted and cracked the surface of airport runways throughout Nunavut. This is a significant transportation challenge because air travel is a main resource for Nunavummiut to receive food and supplies.

In response to these challenges, Nunavut will need improved research, monitoring and response capabilities. This includes new and better infrastructure, mapping, and navigational systems. Improved infrastructure will likely include roads, asphalt paved runways, and fixed marine structures in coastal areas.

Impacts on Resource Development

An increase in exploration and industrial activities will likely result from current climate change projections, which include reduced sea ice cover and warmer temperatures. The Canadian Arctic Archipelago has the potential for vast hydrocarbon deposits and other mineral deposits. Oil and mineral resource development are expected to increase.

Renewable resource development, such as fisheries, will also be impacted by climate change. Fishing in Nunavut is an important part of the economy and subsistence living. It is likely that the number of fish species present in the waters off Nunavut will increase as sub-arctic species will move further north with the warming climate. Although this can result in new opportunities for fisheries, it can also bring parasites and new predators. Current and planned fisheries activities and management will need to be continuously monitored and adjusted to address the impacts of climate change.

Impacts on Tourism

Longer summers can result in an extended 'high' tourism season and increased tourism activity. Decreasing ice cover is likely to result in more shipping traffic, particularly cruise ship activity, into areas that were formerly inaccessible and/or had limited access. While beneficial, more marine tourism brings challenges in the form of impacts on communities, historic resources, and the environment in general. Addressing these challenges will require additional resources.

Impacts on Arts and Crafts

An increase in tourism should lead to more sales of arts and crafts, and milder weather will make access to carving stone possible for longer periods during the year. However, sudden and unexpected weather patterns and thawing permafrost can pose a risk to the safety of artists and businesses accessing quarry sites at great distances from the communities.

Impacts on Energy

The changing climate will potentially have great impacts on our energy sector. Warmer temperatures will affect our heating requirements, making it less expensive to heat buildings.

Existing power plants will be affected by changes in permafrost conditions, which will influence the stability of infrastructure. Settling of foundations in existing power plants has already been noticed. Degrading permafrost is also expected to impact fuel tank farms and transmission lines. For example, permafrost degradation has created conditions where hydro poles are easier to install. At the same time, degradation is also responsible for destabilizing poles, causing them lean precariously because of weaker soil

Changes in water and precipitation patterns along with permafrost degradation may impact hydroelectricity development. Previous studies that estimated hydroelectric potential will no longer be reliable as the flow patterns in our lakes and rivers may change as a consequence of climate change. Some studies have suggested that precipitation will increase, which can have a positive effect on the amount of water available for hydroelectric power production. Possible changes in wind patterns may affect the feasibility of wind generation.

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Climate Change Impact is a way of looking at the effects climate change has on the people and environment of Nunavut, over time. Almost every part of life in the region will be touched by climate change.

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Increasing Heat -  in 2007  Health Canada launched a heat resiliency project to assist Canadians in coping with extreme heat by strengthening the capacity of communities, health care workers, and individuals to manage heat-related health risks
Wendy.

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Protecting Canadians from Extreme Heat Events - Adapting to the Health Impacts of Climate Change - Health Canada

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Description of Health Canada's heat resiliency project designed to protect Canadians from extreme heat events created by climate change

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Hottest summer on record.
Wendy

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Southern Ontario has just come out of its worst heat wave of the summer - and many areas have had more than 30 days with temperatures above 30 C with suffocating humidex values that have topped 40. On top of the blistering heat, there's been a dearth of rain. Parts of eastern Canada have also seen higher than normal temperatures. Meanwhile the Prairies has faced long periods of rain, with farmers battling diseased crops.
READ MORE: Ontario farmers battling drought while Prairies battle wet conditions
Are these weather events signs of things to come for Canadians as the world continues to warm?

Short-term weather events aren't necessarily evidence of climate change, which operates on long-term weather patterns. But Canada's climate is changing.

WATCH: Climate warning after hottest month in recorded history. Eric Sorensen reports.

The variability we've seen across the country this summer is something that we will likely see in the future.

"It may be a dress rehearsal," said David Phillips senior climatologist with Environment Canada.

"I tell people, think of the warmest summer you've ever experienced: it could be this one, it could be the one in 2005 or 1998 ... in 50 years that'll be the coldest summer."

After years of mainly ignoring climate change, the federal government is acknowledging that Canadians face a myriad of challenges ahead due to climate change.

"Over the period 1948 to 2013, the average annual temperature in Canada has warmed by 1.6 °C (relative to the 1961-1990 average), a higher rate of warming than in most other regions of the world," reads the government's climate change website.

"Future warming will be accompanied by other changes, including the amount and distribution of rain, snow, and ice and the risk of extreme weather events such as heat waves, heavy rainfalls and related flooding, dry spells and/or droughts, and forest fires," it continues.

These weather events mean several things for Canadians.

Health issues

The elderly, children, the homeless and the economically disadvantaged will be the first to experience health issues from the increased occurrence of heat waves. These are the people who can't necessarily afford air conditioning during stifling heat waves. They run the risk of suffering dehydration and heat stroke. But providing that to every citizen could pose problems.

"It would put a huge strain on our electrical system," said Gideon Forman, a climate change analyst at the David Suzuki Foundation. "But we have to protect our seniors."

A better solution, he feels, would be to use more solar energy to provide electricity to the grid, making air conditioning less of a strain on our resources.
READ MORE: 2015 shatters record for warmest year ever
Forman said that we're seeing events that could likely be results of a warming climate.

"The consequences that Canadians are already facing, flooding ... we've seen ice storms, we've seen drought conditions. So we're already seeing those sorts of things. Erratic weather, extreme weather and contradictory weather."
GALLERY: Toronto's 2013 ice storm
A changing climate raises concern over other health issues. We are likely to see species in regions we hadn't before.

"As summers grow hotter, we see species moving up from the [United] States, we never had seen before, so you have more incidents of Lyme disease, for example, because ticks are moving north into southern Ontario. You have West Nile that could potentially be more of an issue because the breeding of mosquitoes can continue for a longer period."

Costly to Canadians

But the result of a climate that is changing will take its toll on everyone. As farmers face lower yields due to drought, floods or severe storms, that means rising prices at the cash register.

If extreme weather drives up the cost of food, low-income households may be unable to afford a healthy diet.

And then there's the insurance industry. More frequent weather extremes mean more damage and, as a result, climbing insurance rates.
WATCH: Home insurance premiums will likely be going up as a result of the ice storm
According to the Insurance Bureau of Canada, "From 2009 to 2014 insured losses from catastrophic events were close to or above $1 billion each year - most of this was due to water damage."

In 2013 - the year of the incredible multi-day flooding event in Alberta and the single-day flooding event in Toronto - insurance companies paid out a total of $3.2 billion.

While Canadians love to talk about the weather, the variability we're seeing is like an unpleasant roller coaster ride. The winters of 2013 and 2014 were two of the coldest. Then, as a result of El Niño, last winter was far milder.
READ MORE: El Nino-What it is and why it matters
Jay Anderson, a retired meteorologist, said that while El Niño was a definitely a factor this past winter, there are larger systems that also play a role, like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation - which is like a prolonged El Niño in the Pacific Ocean - and what this means in a changing climate is unknown.

"We're still trying to work out the patterns," he said. "The more we learn about the climate, the more we know there are no simple things," he said.

Though Canadians can prepare themselves somewhat for the changing weather we're expected to see in the coming decades, there is a hard truth: it's becoming more difficult to predict what's around the corner.

"The thing we can take from this is the fact that there's incredible variability. You can't count on the seasons anymore," said Phillips. "Summers are not necessarily hot, winters aren't necessarily cold.

"And that, to me, is our greatest fear. Because how do you plan for variability? You can't." he said.
Follow @NebulousNikki

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How climate change will affect Canadians

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Southern Ontario has just come out of its worst heat wave of the summer - and many areas have had more than 30 days with temperatures above 30 C with suffocating humidex values that have topped 40. On top of the blistering heat, there's been a dearth of rain.

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Canadian Forests- most vulnerable - D. Suzuki

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Canadian Forests- most vulnerable - D. Suzuki

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Wendy

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Rising average temperatures do not simply mean balmier winters. Some regions will experience more extreme heat, while others may cool slightly.

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Position statement, gather a list of reasons to support a particular viewpoint. Next, write a sentence or two that pulls all the information together and makes your stand clear to the audience.

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Natalie

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Natalie

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ᑐᙵᓱ
Welcome to Canada :-)