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The Numbers to Watch Ahead of November: Maged Saad # 18

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The Numbers to Watch Ahead of November: Maged Saad # 18

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-The percentage of Americans that have disproved the presidency of Donald Trump has steadily increased since he has taken the presidency.
-A latest poll founded that the majority of people would prefer more government interference.
-It is a waste of time trying to asses what caused the government shutdown. Republicans will most likely hold onto the majority, but not by much.

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-In recent years, polls have become increasingly inaccurate with many such instances proving so.

-Large companies that specialize in polls have been incredibly inaccurate, such as the Washington Post for example, which placed the Republicans at a 98% chance of taking back the Senate back in the midterms of 2014.
-Only until recently was polling accurate and was thought to increase in its accuracy over time via improved technology.
-One of the reasons for why polls have becoming increasingly inaccurate is due to the decreased amount of data collected; the decreased data had lead to the increased inaccuracy.
-In order for polls to become more accurate in the future, it is believed that certain aspects of traditional and new polling should be combined in order to receive the most accurate results.

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-Popular polls have become more and more unreliable
-Leading polling companies such as Gallup have lost their ability to accurately predict the outcome of elections
-Competing polls don’t often share the same predictions. This can be seen in the predictions for the 2014 midterms. Although all the major polls predicted the Republicans to take back the senate, they were very different from one another.  The Princeton Election Consortium had it at 64% odds.  The Washington Post put the odds at 98%. And the Cook Political Report predicted that all the seats in question were unable to be accurately predicted.
-It would be assumed that polling would be improving over the years because of advancements in technology and the ability for polling companies to obtain general information about voters is becoming increasingly easier.
-Surveying an authetic random sample is becoming increasingly difficult for pollsters
-Pollsters manipulate their data based on if they surveyed one demograohic or group more than another.
-The unreliability and changing minds of the people that are being polled add to the inaccuracy of the predictions that pollsters generate.

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- 31% said this year’s speech is more important than past years

ECONOMY AND JOBS
- 41% of Americans rate economic conditions in a more positive view

- Economic issues viewed as less important than policy priorities

- Little change in Americans who say their family’s income is failing in comparison to cost of living

TAXES

- mixed views of new tax law passed

- views diﬀer depending on party and income people with high income believe they will beneﬁt

TERRORISM AND GLOBAL THREATS

- defense against terrorism considered a top priority

- improved view of campaign against ISIS

- mixed views on the effects of the campaign

- ISIS, North Korea’s nuclear program, and cyberattacks = “major threats”

FOREIGN POLICY

- Public divided on participation of US in foreign affairs

- Also divided on whether or not US takes interests of allies

IMMIGRATION

- Majority of Americans believe immigrants strengthen country

- Current issues of debate: illegal child immigrants and U.S. Mexico border wall

- 72% of Republicans are for wall expansion vs. 85% Democrats oppose

TRADE

- Positive views toward NAFTA

- Republicans moving towards opposition of free trade agreements

HEALTH CARE

- Majority of Americans believe ACA has more positive effects and that federal government should have a bigger role in health care accessibility

REGULATION

- Americans split on government regulation of business

- Democrats showing growing support for business regulation

ENVIRONMENT

- Climate change and environment - divisive among partisans

- Partisan gap on environmental laws and regulations

- More democrats believe climate change is a top priority and stricter environmental laws are needed

RACE RELATION

Majority of Americans (60%) say Trump has worsened race relations

- overall negative views towards race relations

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- 57.6 million+ people (28.5% of eligible voters) voted in presidential primaries, close to record participation level in 2008 (30.4%)
- 2016: GOP had highest primary turnout since 1980
-Turnout fell when Trump won Indiana primary (May 3) and two rivals dropped out of race
- First 29 GOP primaries - average 16.6% vs. Final 9 - only 8.4%, Trump was assumed Republican nominee
- Democratic turnout in 2016 (14.4%) was lower than 2008 (19.5%)
- Turnout calculated by dividing # of votes in party primaries by estimated # of voting age citizens
- Turnout rates for individual parties may not equal total turnout because states don’t always hold Democratic and Republican primaries

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• Turnout rate was over 58% in the 2016 election - almost as high as the 2012 election.

• Trump going from long shot candidate to president may have been caused by apathy to Hillary Clintons candidacy.

• Hilary Clinton was ahead of Trump in the popular vote but still was behind Obama when he was running.

• Certain states, like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio, had lower turnout rates which hurt Clintons chances. Those states were helpful to Obama during his years.

• 14 states installed new restrictive voting laws that targeted minorities.

• Rural turnout increased while larger cities decreased.

• Exit polls were divided by race, gender, and education.

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• Obama's reelections voter turnout dropped 3.4%.

• Most presidents have a lower turnout rate when reelected. (Only six were successful since World War II).

• Battleground states - should have a higher turnout because campaigns put a lot of money into those states.

• Battleground states experiences democracy differently than regular states.

• Home Field Advantage - when someone from their state is running, more participation.

• Hurricane Sandy - the states hit hard by the hurricane had lower turnout rates.

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-28.5% of estimated eligible voters voted in 2016 presidential primaries

-2008: 30.4% of voting age citizens voted

-2016: GOP had highest primary turnout since 1980 (at 14.8%)

-When two main competitors dropped out, Turnout began to fall after Trump won the Indiana primary on May 3rd

-Turnout fell off towards the final nine contests

-Democratic turnout lower than 2008s

-Turnout calculated: dividing number of reported votes cast in party primaries by estimated number of voting-age citizens

-States don't always hold Democratic and Republican primaries (so turnout rates for two parties individually may not be equal to total turnout)

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About 31% people surveyed said that this year's speech is "more important" than any previous year
-Jobs: people's attitudes have been more positive in recent years, 41% of Americans rate economic conditions as good, economic issues now viewed as less important policy priorities, half of Americans said there are plenty of jobs available in their communities, however 49% of Americans say their family's income is falling behind cost of living

-Taxes: about the same number of people say the tax law will have positive impacts on them as negative impacts, 1/3 of adults say it will not have much personal impact, views vary by party and income

-Terrorism and Global Threats: 73% of Americans say defending against terrorism is a top priority, 69% of Americans support campaign against Islamic militants, however many Democrats, Republicans, and GOP leaders say the campaign has not made much difference, majority agree that ISIS, North Korea's nuclear program, and cyberattacks from other cou ntries pose major threats, large partisan gap on views on Russia

-Foreign Policy:  public event divided over whether US should be focused on international or domestic events, Democrats say U.S. should focus more globally, 59% of Americans should take allies interests into account

-Immigration: 65% of Americans say strengthen country with current citizens hard work and talents, rather than letting immigrants in, 74% of U.S. adults support granting legal status to immigrants brought here illegally as kids rather than build the wall, 72% of Republicans support building the wall, 85% of Democrats oppose it, however both  favor permanent lefal status for immigrants (50% of Republicans and 92% of Democrats)

-Trade: NAFTA generally looked at positively, 54% of Republicans say it is bad, only 18% of Democrats say it's bad

-Health Care: 44% of Americans say Affordable Care Act has more positive than negative effect on the U.S, 69% of Americans say federal government should play major rule in health care, yet only 36% say govt is doing a very good or somewhat good job

-Regulation: half of public says govt regulation or business is necessary, 45% say it does more harm than good, 66% of Democrats say govt regulation is necessary, only 31% of Republicans agree

-Environment: 68% of Democrats say dealing with climate change should be a top priority, only 18% of Republicans agree, 81% of Democrats say dealing with environmental issues should be top priority, 37% of Republicans agree, 2017- 77% of Democrats say stricter environment laws are worth the cost and 58% of Republicans say regulations would hurt economy

-Race Relations:  60% of Americans agree that race relations have worsened since Trump's election, after election half of Republican voters expected race relations to improve, 83% Democratic votes say elections made race relations worse, today 38% say race relations are generally good, 56% say they are generally bad

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Voter Turnout in the 2012 and 2016 Election: Zoë Carpenter #5

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Voter Turnout in the 2012 and 2016 Election: Zoë Carpenter #5

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2012 Election:

voter turnout dropped from 61.6% in the 2008 election of Obama to 58.2%

a 3.4% drop in voter turnout from a president’s first term to reelection is fairly common, with the average since World War II being a 4.3% drop

Although the turnout rate dropped from 2008, it was still higher than all of the turnout rates from 1972 to 2000. This shows an increasing trend in voter turnout for elections. Obama was also very well-liked by the Democratic Party, so this could have helped increase the appeal of voting (in opposition to the more dislike Clinton received from the Democratic Party, which decreased her voter turnout overall).

the voter turnouts in certain battleground states increased (Iowa, Nevada, and Wisconsin as well as Washington D.C.)

battleground state voter turnouts tend to be higher because presidential campaigns aim to advertise to citizens in them

for example, a Democrat may not advertise as much in California because California is a consistently blue state, but advertising more in a battleground state can lead to winning more voters over

Alaska’s voter turnout had the most dramatic decrease by 9.1%. This could have been caused by the decrease in excitement to vote from having Sarah Palin, their former governor and a figure that can represent their state, involved in the 2008 election to not having as much drive to vote in the 2012 election.

Hurricane Sandy also had an effect on the rates in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut because voting booths were not as easy to reach and people had to deal with the aftermath of the hurricanes. They also were unable to receive as much news about the election before it, so people may have been unsure of who to vote for. This was a small amount of people in the scheme of the entire voting population though.

The African-American voting population remained fairly steady from 2008 to 2012. States with large African-American populations experienced less voter decline, and the percentage of African-American voters in the overall popular vote remained almost the same at about 13% each election.

2016 Election:

voter turnout changed Donald a Trump from extremely unlikely candidate to president

58% of eligible voters went to the polls to vote, which is close to the voter turnout of the 2012 election of Barack Obama, contrary to general belief that there was a dramatic decrease in voter turnout in comparison to other years

Clinton won the popular vote by about 1.5 people, but Trump won in the electoral college

Although the overall voter turnout rate didn’t decrease dramatically, voter turnout rates in individual states decreased. In Iowa, there was a 1.3 percent decrease. In Wisconsin, there was a 3 percent decrease. In Ohio, there was a 4 percent decrease. This hurt Clinton’s polls because she lost voters in areas where Obama won the polls.

it is also possible that the striking down of the part of the Voting Rights Act that requires approval from Congress for changes of state election laws could have affected voter turnout

For example, in Milwaukee, 41,000 less people in high-poverty districts voted in 2016 than in the previous election

there is not enough evidence to confirm this though

many people believed their vote for Clinton didn’t matter because there seemed to be no chance that Trump could win, while Trump needed people to vote for him, so supporters showed up to vote.

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Voter turnout in the 2016 election - Brendan Baker #2

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Voter turnout in the 2016 election - Brendan Baker #2

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The main reason Hillary Clinton lost is she didn’t have as high of a voter turnout as Obama did.
She lost in many key Democrat voting blocs, such blue collar workers, ages 18-29, and minorities.
Trump held ground in many key cities, and gained ground in states Obama had won.
He also won more votes from minorities than the previous Republican candidate, Mitt Romney.
Another factor for Trump’s victory was the sense of urgency for his voters leading up to the election. Hillary was predicted to win in almost all polls, and his voters were given extra incentive to help him win.
Fun fact: The United States has one of the worst voter turnouts among developed nations.

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Over 57.6 million (~28.5%) voted in the presidential primaries (almost reaching the 2008 record participation level)

High turnout boosted mainly by Republicans, with highest GOP turnout since 1980

Turnout started to fall off a bit after Trump won the Indiana primary on May 3rd (with his two main competitors dropping out)

Turnout was stronger towards the beginning, falling off towards the final nine contests

Overall Democratic turnout is much lower than 2008's, yet still the second-highest since 1988's

Turnout is calculated by dividing the number of reported votes (cast in party primaries) by the estimated number of voting-age citizens; yet didn't measure turnout in caucus states (unreliable)

Turnout rates for two parties individually may not equal total turnout since states don't always hold both Democratic and Republican primaries

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This year's State of the Union address was deemed by 30% as "more important" than those of past years.

The Economy and Jobs: Americans have positive views on improving economic conditions and job availability; but little change in Americans who say that their family's income staggers behind the cost of living

Taxes: diverse views of the newly passed tax law; in addition, there are mixed perspectives on how the law would impact the nation (stances depend on ideologies and income; most people with higher incomes think positively of the new law, 40% don't)

Terrorism and Global Threats: continuously a priority of the public (73%); improved view of the campaign against ISIS (with Republicans doing most of the boosting – yet still many Democrats see no difference); both parties generally see that ISIS, North Korea, and foreign cyberattacks are threatening

Foreign Policy: evenly divided between America's increased or decreased participation in foreign affairs; also divided when it comes to taking interests of our allies (yet leaning more towards supporting allies, even if that means compromising)

Immigration: more positive views on immigrants (65% see that they strengthen America, rather than burden it); the status of immigrant children illegally brought to America and the expansion of the border wall still remain large problems

Trade: generally positive views of NAFTA; most see it as beneficial for the U.S.; Republicans mainly see it as the opposite

Health Care: more favorable views of the Affordable Care Act (even after the Republicans' repeated endeavors to repeal it); many think that government should play a key role within health care access

Regulation: split between whether or not government regulation of business is required; Democrats lean toward that it is a necessity, while Republicans don't

Environment: climate change and environmental views are highly controversial; 68% of Democrats see environmental protection as a priority, while a measly 18% of Republicans agree

Race Relations: 60% of Americans think that Trump's election worsened race relations; overall more negative opinions on the state of race relations

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State of the Union: Priya Joshi #12

-the trend of economic priority has decreased

-the view of the current economic conditions are very positive compared to the prior years

-mixed views/expectations for the newly passed tax law

-the effect will be mostly negative, but many people expect the law to have little impact

-the impact is based on those in varying socioeconomic backgrounds

-defending terrorism is the primary priority

-some say that the campaign against ISIS has improved, but others disagree and argue that it has little impact

-there still are partisan differences on how they would like to curb terrorism

-in terms of foreign policy, 59% of Americans say that the allies' interest should be taken into consideration

-many Americans argue that immigration will strengthen the country, but 65% say that they are a burden

-the two main issues include: illegal immigrants and how to deal with their children

-NAFTA, according to the republicans will create more benefits to Mexico, not the U.S.

-more Americans think that the ACA has positive effects, despite the republicans' attempt to repeal

-The people also think that the government should have a large role in implementing and ensuring national health care

-there is a partisan view on government regulation as the democrats think that it is necessary and only 31% of republicans agree

-climate change and environmental policies are very divisive

-68% of democrats think that climate change should be a major priority , while only 18% of republicans agree

-according to the republicans, regulating the environment costs too many jobs and damages the economy

-race relations have worsened in America due to trump according to 60% of Americans

-the opinion of race relations in today's political climate is more negative

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Turnout- Priya Joshi #12

-about 28.5% of the eligible voters voted in the primary presidential elections

-GOP had highest turnout since 1980

-this democratic turnout was well below the 2008 record

-turnout records will not always match

-calculating turnouts are based of the one primary party

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Voter Turnout in the 2012 election - Brendan Baker #2

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Voter Turnout in the 2012 election - Brendan Baker #2

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Barak Obama has a 3.4 decrease in percentage points of voters in 2012 as opposed to 2008.
Most presidents have a decline in voting for their second term because citizens are confident with the direction of the country.
When change is needed more voters turn out.
Even with the decline, American voters are more engaged than they were for a 28 year period beginning in 1972 and ending in 2000.
States where the candidates come from generally have more turnout than other states, which is dubbed “The homefiled advantage”.
Hurricane Sandy effected voting in the East coast with an average of 5.4 dcrease in percentage points.
According to the source, African American populations of more than 20% in a state, increased voter turnout by .33 percentage points on average, while Latino populations of more than 20% in a state, decreased voter turnout by -.20 percentage points on average.
Finally, another reason for decline is that the 2008 election had the biggest voter turnout since 1964.

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Voter Turnout in the 2016 & 2012 Presidential Election - Miara Chua #6

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Voter Turnout in the 2016 & 2012 Presidential Election - Miara Chua #6

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The 2016 voter turnout was different than most people suspected.

Due to people already calling out a winner in the beginning of the election, the turnout has been controversial with the electoral college and the popular vote.

58% of eligible voters voted.

Clinton had the popular vote by having 1.5 million votes more than Trump.

Voter turnout dropped 1.3% in Iowa, 3% in Wisconsin, and 4% in Ohio.

Rural counties had a bigger turnout than larger cities, which was more consequential for Hilary than trump.

I thought it was really interesting how 14 more states installed restrictive voter laws that targeted minority groups, which can take a large toll on the voter turnout.

There was not enough information to see how these voter laws affected the election.

Clinton got 88% of African American votes and trump got 8%, while compared to the 2012 election Obama got 93% votes of African Americans to Romney’s 6%.

America is considered one of the nations with the lowest voter turnout.

The exit polls showed that the election was divided by race, gender, and education, which I personally felt at the time of the election.

2012 ELECTION

There was a turnout decline in the 2012 election.

This is mainly expected by re-elected president elections.

Minnesota led the states with their turnout being 75.7%.

This is because of voter friendly policies.

However, this election turnout declined from the 2008 one.

Due to hurricane Sandy, voter turnout declined in Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey.

The battleground states, which are important in an election, had a voter turnout that was less than the national average, where they should be having a higher turnout.

The exit polls showed a decrease in White from the electoral college, decreasing by 2%. This makes a prediction of how white people will no longer be the majority of population by 2050.