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Auckland is not prepared for a volcanic eruption

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Auckland is not prepared for a volcanic eruption

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The Watchers - Daily news service | Watchers.NEWS

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Scientists warned that Auckland is vulnerable to volcanic eruptions. During the last 250,000 years, Auckland's volcanoes have totally changed the Auckland landscape. The scientists used a variety of devices and models to explore in a new way the lava flows of AVF and its 50 monogenetic volcanoes. Polygenetic volcanoes erupt from the same craters regularly. Scientists point that detailed evaluation of lava flow hazards and delimitation of potentially safe places from lava flow inundation have not yet been attempted, in spite of the relatively high level of their potential risk.

Future vent forming eruptions will very likely occur within the city limits or its outskirts, allowing few mitigation or preparation options. Scientists agreed that residents of Auckland may get only a day or two warning of a volcanic eruption and will only know hours before where it will explode on the surface.

Much of Auckland is built on the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), which contains at least 50 volcanoes that cover 360km2. The field is still active and there is no way to predict where or when the next 'bubble' of magma will rise to the surface and create a new volcano. The size and length of each eruption depends on how big the 'bubble' of magma was. Auckland has already experienced volcanic ash falls from Mount Taranaki/Egmont, Taupo, Okataina, Tongariro and Mayor Island. The earliest volcanic eruption in the AVF was an estimated 250,000 years ago. The last occurred about 600 years ago and formed Rangitoto and Māori living on Motutapu Island witnessed it.

Image credit: NASA / Earth Observatory

The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF)

The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) lies at the southern end of the Northland Peninsula and is overlain by New Zealand's largest city. It covers 360km2 and contains at least 50 volcanoes that have formed over the last 250.000 years. Auckland's volcanoes vary in shape, size and character and it lies in an elliptical volcanic field 29 km long in its largest (N-S) direction.

When the basalt magma mixes with seawater or groundwater, super heated steam blows it apart, causing large explosions. An eruption of this type is more likely to recur in Auckland. These eruptions can form large craters, which can subsequently fill with water such as Lake Pupuke, Orakei Basin and Onepoto Reserve. Over half of the eruptions in Auckland have produced lava flows or lakes.

Continued eruptions often create volcanic or scoria cones such as Mt Wellington, Mount Eden, Browns Island and Three Kings. The majority of previous scoria cones and lava flows are located in the heart of the city, upon a presently slightly elevated ridge-system. As the volcano continues to erupt it may produce extensive lava flows. Many have been mapped within the city, extending up to 10km from the source. Likely hazards and effects of the next Auckland eruption depend on what type of eruption occurs and for how long.

On average, the Auckland isthmus has been impacted by ash-fall from local or distant eruptions once every 400 years for the past 80,000 years.

Early map of Auckland (Ferdinand Hochstetter in 1865-66)
Rangitoto is a volcanic island in the Hauraki Gulf visible from most parts of Auckland City. It is the most recent, largest and least altered volcano in the Auckland Volcanic Field. Rangitoto makes up nearly 60% of the total volume of material erupted. It was formed by at least 2 eruptions 600-700 years ago and is now about 260 m above sea level and 5.5 km wide.

It is an intra-plate or hot spot volcano (these occur away from plate boundaries and are not related to subduction). A mantle hot spot exists about 100 km below Auckland. When rock is melted by this extra heat, it will separate from the surrounding solid rock and rise to the surface. The melted rock is basalt magma which has a low viscosity (flows easily) and may rise to the surface at speeds of up to 5 km/hour.

QuickFacts Rangitoto Large-Scale Faulting in the Auckland Region by J.A. Kenny, J.M. Lindsay, and T.M. Howe
(Report 1-2011.04| August 2011)

While most volcanic cones in the Auckland Volcanic Field have been affected by quarrying, many of the remaining cones are now within parks, and retain a more natural character than the surrounding city. Prehistoric earthworks and historic fortifications are in several of these parks, including Mount Eden, North Head and One Tree Hill (Maungakiekie).

Risk of possible eruption

It remains unknown when and where future eruptions will occur. Based on the number and frequency of past eruptions it is estimated there is about a 1 in 1000 (0.001 per cent) chance an eruption could occur in any one year. There is an 8%probability (1 in 12.5 chance) an eruption will occur in the AVF field over any 80 year period. The 1.4 million people are living on the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) area.

Some of the possible resulting hazards are base surge, ash and debris, fire fountains, explosion shockwaves, poisonous gases. earthquakes and tsunami.

Base surges are a hot blast of rock, gas and steam that travels across the land at hundreds of kilometres an hour. These surges flow outward from the vent and may significantly devastate an area up to 3km from the eruption location. For the duration of the eruption, ash and debris will accumulate down wind of the volcano. The depth of ash and debris deposited will decrease further from the vent. Fire fountaining, molten rock and magma erupting from the volcano's vent, can lead to the formation of lava flows that will be slow-moving and destroy most things in their path. Auckland has at least 14 large lava tube caves which run from the volcanoes down towards the sea.

South Auckland will probably suffer more damage from lava flows than the early stages of the eruption. The lava flows in central Auckland were likely to be longer in length as the topography forces lava into river-like channels.

Shockwaves from violent explosions will be stronger closer to the vent and can flatten trees and break windows. As rising magma moves upwards through the earth's surface, it can generate earthquakes. Earthquake activity is likely to increase as an eruption becomes more likely and will continue for the duration of the eruption. There are currently 9 seismographs operated by GNS Science's GeoNet programme that monitor Auckland volcanoes. Volcanic eruptions occurring beneath the ocean or large water bodies can also displace water creating a tsunami.

Volcanic impact

Impacts could include devastation of buildings and infrastructure within a 3km radius of the volcanic vent or in the direct path of lava flow, large economic losses due to clean-up costs, physical damage to buildings and infrastructure, closure of businesses, damage to horticultural and agricultural products and a decline in the region's tourism, an increased risk of widespread fires from hot ash or disrupted gas supply lines, significant impacts on Auckland's infrastructure from any of the listed hazards which may result in mass evacuations, disruption and restrictions to lifeline networks such as electricity, gas and water supplies, and waste and stormwater networks from any of the listed hazards, ash and dust will affect air-conditioning systems and some communication networks, roading networks within a 10km radius of the vent may be impassable or greatly affected, rail and air services stopping or greatly reduced and eye and lung irritation and poor sanitation causing increased health risk.

The volcanism in Auckland in New Zealand differs from large, polygenetic volcanoes because future eruptions will likely take place within a densely populated city, there are no rift zones that indicate areas of elevated hazard, and the future vent area is therefore unknown, and due to the generally low-lying topography, there are few opportunities to use mitigation options, such as artificial dams.

Geonet website gives updates on all the latest volcanic activity including web cams as well as details of recent earthquakes and other hazards.

The paper, published in the Journal of Remote Sensing of Environment, was written by scientists from Massey University's Institute of Natural Resources, Gabor Kereszturi, Jonathan Procter, Shane Cronin, Karoly Nemeth and Mark Babbington with Auckland University School of Environment's Jan Lindsay.

New Zealand's volcanic alert bulletins

Featured image: View of Mt. Eden overlooking Auckland city. (Credit: GEOnet)

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Scientists warn: Auckland, New Zealand is unprepared for volcanic eruption under the city

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Scientists warned that Auckland is vulnerable to volcanic eruptions. During the last 250,000 years, Auckland's volcanoes have totally changed the Auckland landscape. The scientists used a variety of devices and models to explore in a new way the lava flows of AVF and its 50 monogenetic volcanoes.

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Most Aucklanders are unprepared for a volcanic eruption or even the smallest natural disaster, the city's civil defence head says.

"Aucklanders as individuals are not well-prepared. We are the least prepared in the country. Only about one in 10 people is really prepared for most eventualities. That is far too low," Auckland Civil Defence controller Clive Manley told today's forum on managing volcanic risk in Auckland.

The Auckland volcanic field is the most densely populated field of its type in the world. Fifty-six volcanoes have been identified in the field.

The field is 250,000 years old and there have been 55 eruptions. The most recent was Rangitoto 500 years ago, when it erupted two or three times.

The forum showed the public the way the Auckland Council, central government and the civil defence and emergency management sectors are preparing for next Auckland eruption.

The risk of a volcanic eruption was low, but being ready for the possibility of a house fire, flood or loss of power required the same preparation, Manley said.

"So if you prepare for the small things that can happen, that is you actually prepared for the big things, which is leave your property quickly, or if your power is out and your communications, how are you going to survive?" he said.

Located in an isthmus within the volcanic field, the city had many challenges to respond to in an eruption, but residents must have faith in the preparedness of the Government and Civil Defence, Manley said.

"Today it is important to show all the research that has been done and show all the planning that has been done so the community can get a real understanding of just when we say something's happening, that their lives depend on them trusting that information," he said.

"Katrina and other disasters; the people who ended up dying were the people who chose not to evacuate. In Auckland, we want people to have confidence in the system."

Scientists had a good understanding of the potential effects of an Auckland eruption and knew the area affected would be within a a 3-kilometre to 5km radius of the eruption, said Brad Scott, volcano surveillance co-ordinator with GNS Science.

If an eruption occurred in South Auckland, northern Auckland would not be affected, he said.

"It will be disrupted by the volcanic ash and wind and it is going to be a real nuisance, but you are not going to be affected by those primary agencies, the explosions and the lava flows," he said.

"It allows people to scale the problem and say I am 15km away from the problem, I can stay here."

What scientists did not know was when that eruption might occur.

"That is one of the things that we are really struggling with," Scott said.

"The challenge for us is to interpret that unrest and turn it into a warning. Is it going to turn up in a day, is it going to turn up in a week, is it going to turn up in a month?"

Fairfax Media

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Auckland the most unprepared for disaster

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Most Aucklanders are unprepared for a volcanic eruption or even the smallest natural disaster, the city's civil defence head says. "Aucklanders as individuals are not well-prepared. We are the least prepared in the country. Only about one in 10 people is really prepared for most eventualities.

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If you are a volcanologist, nothing strikes fear into your heart as much as thinking about the next Vesuvius eruption. This Italian giant is nestled in the sprawling metropolitan area of Naples, population 3.1 million. We're not talking "nearby" like Rainier is to Seattle or Popocatépetl to Mexico City. We're talking a volcano smack in the middle of the city. It is merely ~12 km (~7.5 miles) from the summit craters at Vesuvius to downtown Naples.

For your average pyroclastic flow from a volcano like Vesuvius, that is a trip that would take only about two and a half minutes. We've been lucky so far, as the growth of Naples since World War II has all occurred while Vesuvius has been quiet- its last eruption was in 1944 -but planning needs to be done now for the eruption that will come in the future.

We can be sure that Vesuvius hasn't gone down for the count. Looking back over the last few thousand years, which for a volcano is a very short period of time, Vesuvius has had 42 eruptions that rank as VEI 3 or larger. On that Volcano Explosivity Index, VEI 3 means that over 10,000,000 cubic meters (2.9 billion gallons!) of volcanic ash and debris erupted.

That's not all. Vesuvius has gone even bigger. The eruption in 1631 was VEI 5, which is on the scale of the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens or 2011's Puyehue-Cordon Caulle eruption in Chile/Argentina. Both of those comparison eruptions happened in fairly unpopulated areas. But plop something that emits at least a cubic kilometer (over 350 billion cubic feet!) of volcanic ash and debris in the middle of an urban area ... it is really something we haven't seen in modern history.

This is why volcanic hazard planning is so vital to cities on volcanoes. Imagine a scenario where an earthquake swarm and small explosions start happening at Vesuvius, both signs that a larger eruption is in the works. How do you start deciding who to evacuate? An exclusion zone of 5 kilometers from the volcano means an evacuation of ~17,000 people. That is a lot but not wholly untenable.

Now, let's say the explosions start getting more and more vigorous: Vesuvius might be headed to a big eruption. Expand that exclusion zone to 10 kilometers from the crater and we are know looking at evacuating over 675,000 people. A really big eruption will blanket ash in an area tens to hundreds of kilometers from Vesuvius, impacting a population that is ~6 million people.

That would be 6 million people who could lose access to power, water and transportation if Vesuvius unleashes an eruption like was seen in 79 A.D. or 1631. How long would they have to stay away from their homes and livelihoods to be safe? As we've seen around volcanoes like Merapi and Sinabung in Indonesia, it could be years to ... forever. If parts of the Naples area are buried by volcanic material during an eruption, they could be uninhabitable for decades as that loose volcanic debris gets washed down the slopes of Vesuvius during every rainstorm, as like what happened around Pinatubo after its 1991 eruption.

So, much like Seattle and the Pacific Northwest need to prepare for the unthinkable earthquake, Naples and Italy need to prepare for the unthinkable eruption from Vesuvius. They have been getting ready with plans and research on how the region could be impacted, what is the likelihood of a massive eruption and how effective current mitigation plans might be.

However, it is communication of these risks that will make the difference. People need to know what different signs of volcanic unrest mean and in particular, what do geologists mean what we say that an eruption "may occur". Getting people on the ground ready through education, emergency kits, plans for evacuation routes and shelters is vitally important, but if the population doesn't understand how and when to evacuation, you end up with catastrophes like Armero or L'Aquila.

The thing is, comparing preparedness for earthquake and eruptions is difficult. Sure, they are broadly similar: have a plan, have supplies, be ready at a moment's notice. However, for an earthquake, you never know when the Big One might strike and likely, you will never know until it happens. Eruptions, on the other hand, have precursors, but those precursors are a bit of a mixed blessing. Sure, they let you know that a volcano is getting restless and an eruption might happen, but the devil is in the details.

Unrest might mean eruption, but it also might mean nothing but unrest. It also might mean months and months of unrest that lead to something small. In the realm of predicting a volcanic eruption, for every Pinatubo where volcanologists nailed it, there is a Long Valley where nothing happened. (Actually, these days volcanologists are much better, so maybe 3 Pinatubos for every Long Valley). It's like living waiting for a hurricane when it gets windy and rainy, but you're not sure if it will make landfall tomorrow or in 6 months.

The question of when to evacuate is one of the biggest challenges for volcanic disaster mitigation. Call for an evacuation too soon and nothing happens, you lose the public's trust. Wait too long, and you lose the public, literally. The window to get it right can be small when you need the public's help to make for an effective and safe evacuation.

With the millions of people who would need to evacuate during a large eruption from Vesuvius, would such an evacuation even be possible? We tend to think of large-scale and long-term evacuations as things that happen in developing countries, where poor farmers and villagers have to go live in tents: the prototypical refugee camps. An eruption of Vesuvius would require evacuation and temporary shelter on a scale almost unseen in the developed world.

Using the hurricane example again, the largest evacuation in U.S. history was for Hurricane Rita in 2005, when over 3 million people where evacuated from a wide swath of Texas and Louisiana, the majority coming from the Houston metro area. However, this was a temporary evacuation for most people who could head back in a few days after the storm passed. The evacuation of New Orleans for Katrina was "only" in the hundreds of thousands, but might be more similar to a volcanic disaster, where many were not able to return for months to years (if ever).

In both cases, the the Interstate System in U.S. allowed for these mass exoduses from major cities, but still ran into problems of congestion. In Italy, there isn't such a network of large roads to accommodate all that traffic of people fleeing. Even in the face of a potentially lethal eruption, some people will stay behind beyond the warning given by the government. People don't like to leave their homes (just ask Harry Truman).

Remember, it was only 5 years ago when a little volcano in Iceland named Eyjafjallajökull erupted and plunged Europe into chaos because a bunch of people missed their flights. Imagine what could happen if all the Naples had to be evacuated in the face of a restless Vesuvius for months or years?

By some estimates, a large eruption of Vesuvius could kill over 10,000 people, but if a long-term evacuation happens, that number could climb from disease related to housing in temporary shelters. The hit to the Italian economy could be over $20 billion ... and that's likely a low-end estimate that doesn't include the cost of shelter for the potentially millions of volcanic refugees.

So, does this mean it's hopeless? Hardly! Here's what needs to be done to have Naples (or any large city near a volcano) ready for the next big eruption:

Volcano monitoring: This means both having sufficient instruments to measure all the rumbling and burping of the volcano but more importantly, people who are trained to interpret the signals.

Mitigation: Planning needs to be done now for the disaster that may never come in our lifetime. The plan needs to be clear and easy to follow as it is passed on to new people as the years go by. It also needs to be constantly revised as new information becomes available and the city itself changes.

Communication: The scientists need to communicate effectively and clearly to the public about the threat the volcano poses and what different scientific observations mean in terms of eruption. Trust needs to be maintained between the scientists, planners, emergency managers and the public - and communication is the key to that trust.

Practice: Plans are good, but practice and drills are better. A great example of this is Rabaul in Papua New Guinea, where practice saved lives during a full blown eruption of the caldera.

Volcanoes are dangerous. Volcanoes are deadly. But they're also beautiful and awe-inspiring. Being prepared for that next eruption is the key from making the world's most dangerous volcano into the deadliest.

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The World's Most Dangerous Volcano May Kill Another City

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If you are a volcanologist, nothing strikes fear into your heart as much as thinking about the next Vesuvius eruption. This Italian giant is nestled in the sprawling metropolitan area of Naples, population 3.1 million. We're not talking "nearby" like Rainier is to Seattle or Popocatépetl to Mexico City.

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"Gentlemen, we have to prepare for the worst," says Franco Barbieri in his Italian-accented English. The researchers in the room know exactly the implications of what the Italian researcher is telling them.

The ground south of Mt. Vesuvius has been shaken by tremors 52 times during the last 24 hours, Italy's leading volcanologist explains. Three hundred tons of sulfur dioxide have spewed out of the crater. Other ominous signs of an impending catastrophe are mounting: The coast guard has sighted gaseous bubbles in the sea, and dead fish are floating on the waves. The water in the boroughs of Ercolano and Torre del Greco tastes sourer and sourer. And, as if that weren't enough, GPS stations have observed that the ground in the region is rising -- by no less than 20 centimetres (8 inches) in a single day.

"No doubt about it, the magma is rising," Barberi concludes. Giovanni Orsi, his colleague from Naples, is especially concerned about the crevices that are opening up on the slopes of the volcano. "We have no time to lose," he says.

The experts had met here, in the strategy planning room of the emergency management center in Naples, three days earlier, in mid-October. At that meeting, the scenario Barberi presented was even worse: An earthquake measuring 4.2 on the Richter scale had destroyed entire residential neighborhoods at the foot of Mt. Vesuvius. Forty-five people were dead and 11,400 homeless.

And yet, on that day, the scientists still felt there was room for optimism. The mountain itself hadn't been active yet and the seismic waves hadn't indicated rising magma. The GPS data was likewise not out of the ordinary.

But the optimism is gone now. Barberi speaks of a "dramatic acceleration of events." The evacuation has to begin immediately, he says -- tonight. Everything else needs to be decided by the Italian government in Rome.

For a moment, everyone in the room is tense and silent, terrified of the prospect of having to depopulate an entire region. Almost as bad, though, is a scenario where, after the evacuation, the volcano doesn't erupt at all.

No time to lose

Meanwhile, in the observation room of the Osservatorio Vesuviano -- the world's oldest volcanological observatory -- the seismograph is quietly drawing its curves on the observation monitors. The geologist on duty, Flora Giudicepietro, takes a look every now and again, but doesn't notice anything unusual -- "except for a tiny tremor measuring 0.9," she says. "But we have more than 100 of those every year."

Wednesday's devastating earthquake didn't register on any of the monitors. Giudicepietro only learned about it a day later. "Vesuvius is communicating with no one right now, except for the director," she jokes.

Most days, Vesuvius is just a 1,281 meter (4,203 foot) rock dome rising imposingly above the Gulf of Naples. It's the mountain on whose slopes the famous Lacryma Christi grapes grow. Two sciences were born in its shadow: volcanology and archaeology. But it's also the mountain that's considered the most dangerous volcano on the planet: Nowhere else on the planet do so many people live in the death zone.

But when scientists talk about Vesuvius these days, they mean a different mountain -- a virtual volcano. Its moods are determined by a three-person research team consisting of Mauro Rosi from Pisa, Roberto Scandone from Rome and Lucia Civetta from Naples. The three experts have come up with a scenario representing one of several ways in which the volcano might awaken.

The relevant data is sent to the crisis management group by email. Then -- as part of the most comprehensive disaster simulation program in Italian history -- authorities from the government, local municipalities, electricity, gas and water providers, and also road operators and telephone and train services, decide just how to react in the case of a violent eruption. "An eruption of Vesuvius has the potential to become the worst disaster in modern times," says Giulio Zuccaro, whose job it is use the seismic data provided by the three volcanologists to calculate the likely damage to houses and streets.

Some 55,000 people live by the foot of Vesuvius -- in towns that have crept farther and farther upward along the volcano's fertile slopes during the past decades. Hardly any other region of Europe is as densely populated -- and construction work is ongoing. Fifty thousand new buildings were built here during the past 20 years -- even including a hospital in the town of Torre Annunziata. As recently as the 1980s, the government was still resettling earthquake victims from the Naples region here, of all places. The refugees were given new homes in the red zone, where the danger from an eruption is most acute.

"The worst disaster in modern times"

The longer the volcano slumbers, the more awareness of its dangers wanes. It is only the oldest citizens of Boscoreale who still remember the bloodied US soldiers who had been pelted by rocks launched from the volcano's crater in 1944.

Scientists are convinced that next time it will be a lot worse. Confidence in their predictive abilities has grown as they have gradually surrounded Vesuvius with an ever more sophisticated network of measuring devices. It is now the most closely watched volcano on the planet.

Seismometers register every tremor of the ground. Gravimeters respond every time the rising magma leads to a miniscule up-tick in gravitational force. GPS stations can detect whether the mountain itself is rising. Instruments measure the amounts of carbon dioxide and sulfur oxide that rise from the crater, as well as gaseous releases deep beneath the Bay of Naples.

In addition to the gadgets, though, analyses of rocks, archaeological findings and historical records also help scientists understand more about how the volcano behaves. The most well-known historical sources are the two letters the Roman statesman Pliny the Younger wrote to the scholar Tacitus in 79 AD. On the afternoon of Aug. 24, Pliny the Younger was in the military harbor of Misenum, not far from Vesuvius. From there, he watched a cloud rise from inside the volcano: "I can best describe its shape by likening it to a pine tree," Pliny wrote. His uncle, Pliny the Elder, joined the naval rescue mission. "Ash was falling onto the ships now, darker and denser the closer they went. Now it was bits of pumice, and rocks that were blackened and burned and shattered by the fire. Now the sea is shoal; debris from the mountain blocks the shore."

What Pliny the Elder saw the following morning was even more terrifying: "frightening dark clouds, rent by lightning twisted and hurled, opening to reveal huge figures of flame."

Archaeologists later confirmed Pliny's report. Dust fell from the sky for many hours following the eruption, until the city of Pompeii, located at the foot of the mountain, was covered with a layer of ash and pumice more than two meters thick. Then, suddenly, the town ceased to exist: Suddenly, a searing hot gas cloud shot down from the mountain. All life in the city was burned to a cinder within seconds.

It's these so-called pyroclastic streams that disaster planners fear most: When the flow of gas and rock released by the volcano during an eruption lessens, the column of gas, ash and dust collapses in on itself and comes crashing down the slope. Such flows in the past have been measured at several hundred kilometers per hour.

Geologists found evidence for eight mighty "Plinian eruptions" in the rock layers of Vesuvius -- all within the past 25,000 years. Firestorms such as those described by Pliny raced across the land each time. Afterwards, the volcano always behaved relatively peacefully, as if exhausted by its explosive act of violence. Instead of scalding explosions of ash and gas, it spouted mostly viscous lava.

The last few centuries were one such phase of relative tranquillity. The last major eruption was in 1631 when some 4,000 people lost their lives. Lava has snaked down the slopes in some 20 minor eruptions since. While the lava flows sometimes destroyed entire villages -- as in 1944 -- residents always had enough time to make their escape. The feared pyroclastic streams made themselves scarce.

Sleeping giant

But Vesuvius has been slumbering for 62 years now -- and that's a bad sign, according to the volcanologists. After all, each of the volcano's major eruptions occurred at the end of such a calm period. The rule of thumb seems to be: The longer the volcano remains outwardly peaceful, the worse the disaster being prepared in its innards.

Still, the scientists hope to be able to decode the warning signs early on. "The next major eruption is sure to happen," says Giovanni Mecedonio, the Osservatorio Vesuviano's director. "But we'll see it coming months or even years ahead."

During the mid-1990s, emergency managers tried to forge a "National Emergency Plan for the Vesuvius Region," based on what scientists now know about the volcano. The proposal was widely mocked. It involved the complete evacuation of the area's population: A total of 81 ships, 4,000 buses and 40 trains were to help all 586,417 inhabitants of the red zone make their escape. The refugees would then be resettled all over Italy on the basis of a complex formula.

But what about all those who don't want to leave their homes? What if roads are torn open, bridges shattered and rail tracks bent out of shape even before the eruption itself occurs? And is a warning period of one week even realistic? Who's responsible if everyone is really evacuated and the volcano doesn't behave in the way predicted by the scientists?

These kinds of concerns led to the development of a simpler and briefer plan. Designed to test the cooperation between the authorities, it was the basis of the disaster simulation program conducted in mid-October. Buses are now considered the only vehicles suitable for use in the evacuation. Everything is supposed to happen in just three days. Nor is the idea of dispersing the evacuated residents all over Italy part of the evacuation scheme any longer. The intention is now to erect temporary shelters in the region.

The spectacle staged by the emergency team during the disaster simulation toward the end of last month was indeed impressive. They set up tents, mobile hospitals and mobile cafeterias. Men in day-glo yellow or bright red clothes bustled about excitedly. The men from Rome -- dressed less conspicuously, in blue -- gave orders on their walky-talkies.

The only ones who caused problems were the locals. At one point, the busy helpers from the emergency team were expecting 300 of them at the emergency station in Nola, to the north of the volcano. But only 151 residents stepped out of the six buses. "The weather's too bad," a local member of the emergency team explained apologetically. "I'm sure more people would have come if the sun were shining."

"Vesuvius does what it wants anyway," says Luigi Grimaldi from the town of Boscoreale. It was the same 62 years ago, he explains: No one was expecting an eruption then. "I was sitting in the cinema when pumice started raining down on the roof all of a sudden," he remembers. "The film was called 'La corono diferro' (The steel crown). Gino Cervi played the lead role."

Meanwhile, there's plenty of talk about "alarm" and "emergencies" in the Naples press. But the journalists aren't talking about Vesuvius -- they're talking about trash.

Stinking mountains of waste lie piled alongside city streets everywhere. The dumping grounds are filled to capacity. When asked to explain, the locals reply with just one word. " Camorra," they say -- the name of the Neapolitan counterpart to the Scilian mafia. There's really only one solution to the problems here in Naples, the people say. And then they point into the distance, where the silhouette of Vesuvius shimmers in the fog.

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Life Under the Volcano: Preparing for the Wrath of Vesuvius - SPIEGEL ONLINE - International

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"Gentlemen, we have to prepare for the worst," says Franco Barbieri in his Italian-accented English. The researchers in the room know exactly the implications of what the Italian researcher is telling them. The ground south of Mt. Vesuvius has been shaken by tremors 52 times during the last 24 hours, Italy's leading volcanologist explains.

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Gas and ash rise from the Calbuco volcano as seen from the city of Puerto Montt, Chile on April 22. Stringer Shanghai/Reuters

Around 5:00 pm local time on April 22, scientists at Southern Andean Volcano Observatory in Chile began picking up volcanic earthquakes at the Calbuco volcano. A disturbingly short 60 minutes later, the volcano was in full eruption, producing an impressive column of ash extending to more than 49,000 feet into the sky. Ash primarily drifted north and northeast of the volcano, covering towns below in a layer of fine ash. Observatory scientists quickly called for an evacuation zone of 12.5 miles.

A second explosive eruption began at 1:00 pm local time on April 23 and lasted for at least six hours. During this time an average of 150 earthquakes were recorded per hour. This eruption also produced a similar-sized column of ash, which drifted north, northeast and east of the volcano.

My colleague Dr Jeff Johnson, who co-taught a Boise State University geophysics and volcanology course with me at Villarrica volcano just after a March 3 eruption, reports from Pucón, Chile, that the Calbuco ash cloud blocked sunlight and turned morning to night. As of 11 AM, on April 23, Pucón, which is more than 130 miles north of Calbuco, was still covered in darkness.

People who live this part of Chile are well-accustomed to volcanoes, yet is still causing widespread concern.

As a physical volcanologist, I've studied how people who live near volcanoes can deal with the hazards and risks from sudden eruptions as we're seeing now in Chile.

On close monitoring

It's hard to miss the multiple, large, ominous volcanoes that can be seen at any point along the drive from Chile's capital city Santiago to the south of the country. Many of the volcanoes are remote and in sparsely populated areas, but others are popular tourist destinations for skiing, trekking, horse-back riding and visiting hot springs.

Because of frequent volcanic activity in Chile, especially as of late, volcano observatory scientists closely monitor Chilean volcanoes.

If a volcano begins to show signs of unrest, such as an increase in shallow earthquakes or ground swelling, observatory scientists go on a 24/7 monitoring schedule. Such was the case prior to the March 3 eruption of Villarrica. However, sometimes, despite careful monitoring, a volcano erupts with no warning at all.

NASA's Earth Observatory/flickr, CC BY

Calbuco is a 6,570-foot-high volcano located in the Los Lagos region of southern Chile, 20 miles northeast of the town of Puerto Montt. It is one of the most active volcanoes in Chile and is known to erupt explosively. The largest witnessed eruption of Calbuco occurred in 1893, registering an impressive level 4 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index - similar in size to the 1980 eruption of Mount St Helens in Washington state in the US. Calbuco has erupted 10 times since, with the most recent eruption occurring unexpectedly on April 22, 2015.

Volcanoes typically show signs of unrest for weeks, months and sometimes even years prior to an eruption. Unrest may include a slow inflation, or the swelling of magma in the volcano; increased earthquake activity beneath the volcano; and potentially an increase in the amount and type of gas escaping from the volcano. The only sign of activity from Calbuco was increased gas venting in 1996; since then, it has been quiet.

Volcanic Hazards

The most serious hazard to towns within the 12.5 mile evacuation zone are lahars - mudflows generated by melted snow and ice mixing with volcanic ash. Lahars are confined to places where water normally drains, but have the capacity to destroy bridges and any other man-made structure in their path.

So far at Calbuco, lahars have traveled more than nine miles from the volcano. Lahars are often produced during eruptions, but also can occur long after an eruption has ceased when ash is remobilized by heavy rain. Thus,residents of nearby towns can be displaced for weeks to months depending on the activity, amount of falling ash and climate.

The most widely disruptive hazard from this eruption will be the ash fall, which currently has covered regions as far as 165 miles to the north under millimeters of ash.

Ivan Alvarado/Reuters

Ash presents a health hazard to those with respiratory problems such as asthma. Ash also can result in loss of electricity and severe disruption of transportation. Only one to three millimeters of ash - or about one tenth of an inch or less - can significantly reduce visibility on roadways, and less than one millimeter of ash will shut down an airport.

Safety

Despite the negative consequences of such an eruption, natural hazards such as this and the March 3 eruption of Villarrica are quite survivable. It comes down to taking a few basic steps to be prepared.

Everyone lives at risk from some form of natural hazard, such as wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes, severe storms and many more. These natural events can knock out power for days at a time and displace loved ones. The people in the towns around Calbuco certainly reported being scared, but their knowledge of evacuation routes and readiness to go at a moment's notice likely saved many lives.

Each of us can rest easier at night by taking a few easy steps to ensure that we also know what to do if disaster strikes in our own backyard, such as preparing food and water for at least three days, getting a first aid kit, and making a plan for contacting loved ones if separated unexpectedly. The preparedness statement from our own Cascade Volcano Observatory sums it up well: Don't be Scared, Be Prepared.

In the meantime, scientists such Dr Johnson and I will continue to research these natural events in an effort to better understand their consequences and better forecast eruptions and volcanic hazards in the future.

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Chile's Calbuco Volcano erupts without warning. What can we expect next?

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Around 5:00 pm local time on April 22, scientists at Southern Andean Volcano Observatory in Chile began picking up volcanic earthquakes at the Calbuco volcano. A disturbingly short 60 minutes later, the volcano was in full eruption, producing an impressive column of ash extending to more than 49,000 feet into the sky.

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volcanos safety volcanoes volcanic eruption pictures lava flow natural disasters ash magma hawaii pompeii etna vesuvius

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Volcano Safety Tips, Preparation, and Readiness

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Get tips on how to stay safe during a volcanic eruption from National Geographic.