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Singapore's overall labour market

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SINGAPORE: Singapore recorded its sharpest fall in total employment in more than two decades in 2020, with non-resident workers accounting for all of the employment decline, said the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) on Tuesday (Mar 16).

Total employment, excluding foreign domestic workers, contracted by 166,600 last year, according to the Labour Market Report 2020 released on Tuesday. The number of employed non-residents fell by 181,500 last year.

Resident - Singaporeans and permanent residents - employment grew by 14,900, and rebounded to "slightly above pre-COVID levels" as a result of improvements in the second half of the year.

The decline is the largest since public records started in 1991, with the next largest fall of 30,600 seen in 1998 during the Asian Financial Crisis.

"I think in the forthcoming months, we see that the economy has turned the corner, the job market has turned the corner, but I think it is wise for us to keep in mind that the risk factors do remain," said Manpower Minister Josephine Teo, commenting on the Labour Market Report after a visit to Giant Hypermart in Tampines.

Unemployment rates have fallen since November and have continued to fall in December and January this year, she added. The number of workers on short work-weeks or temporary lay-offs continued to fall, from 34,240 in the third quarter of 2020 to 8,710 in the fourth quarter, according to the report.

Elaborating on the risk factors, Mrs Teo said that borders are still not reopening significantly and that will weigh on an externally connected economy like Singapore's.

She also cautioned that some Government support schemes such as the Jobs Support Scheme are tapering off, even as other schemes, such as the Jobs Growth Incentive, are picking up speed.

"Some support level is still there, but nonetheless, we have to watch what happens to the job market as these schemes transferred from one to the other," she said.

She also highlighted that as people move into new jobs, there will always be some "friction", as both job seekers and employers evaluate if they are the "right fit" for each other.

"The SG United Traineeship as well as the company attachment programme essentially is to try and bridge these kinds of gaps where both jobseeker and employer are not very sure about each other," she said.

"This is the whole idea: To try and make those job matches happen."

Resident employment trends were mixed across different sectors, with the largest contractions in tourism and aviation-related sectors, which were severely affected by travel restrictions and safe distancing measures. Resident employment grew in some industries, including public administration and education, health and social services, as well as finance and insurance services.

Non-resident employment fell in all sectors, with the bulk in construction and manufacturing. The decline was mainly driven by holders of work permits and other work passes, said MOM, with a decrease of 138,800. This was followed by a fall of 26,000 S pass holders and 16,700 employment pass holders.

Overall unemployment rate rose from 2.3 per cent in 2019 to 3 per cent in 2020. Resident unemployment also grew from 3.1 per cent in 2019 to 4.1 per cent in 2020, while citizen unemployment went up from 3.3 per cent in 2019 to 4.2 per cent in 2020.

Although the annual average unemployment rates rose in 2020 compared to 2019, they did not exceed levels recorded during the SARS epidemic in 2003 and the global financial crisis in 2009. In the last two months of 2020, monthly unemployment rates had started to fall, said MOM.

RETRENCHMENTS RISE
"We're not out of the woods yet, but we see broad improvements in the labour market," said Mr Aubeck Kam, Permanent Secretary for MOM.

The number of retrenchments for the whole of 2020, at 26,110 workers, was more than double of 2019, when there were 10,690 retrenchments.

But the incidence of retrenchment in 2020, at 12.8 retrenched per 1,000 employees, was lower than in past recessionary years, which averaged 22.5 per cent retrenched per 1,000 employees. This is after taking into account increases in the size of the labour force over the years.

The rate of retrenchment for resident workers was 11.1 per 1,000 resident employees while the rate of non-resident workers being retrenched was 15.7 per 1,000 non-resident employees.

Overall, the re-entry rate among retrenched residents in 2020 was 62 per cent, slightly lower than 64 per cent in 2019, although there was an improvement in the final quarter of the year, said MOM.

The impact of the retrenchments varied across industries, age and gender.

The report said that the pandemic had a larger impact on industries with a higher concentration of non-PMETs (professionals, managers, executives and technicians), such as in retail, accommodation and food and beverage services.

Singaporeans and permanent residents working as clerical, sales and service workers were most prone to retrenchments in 2020.

Resident workers with educational qualifications of secondary and below saw a "much sharper increase in the incidence of retrenchment than other educational groups" over the year, said the report.

Mrs Teo said that in Singapore the recovery in the labour market has been "quite broad-based", with rank-and-file resident workers also getting back to work in recent months.

"We are quite mindful of the fact that it may still not be their preferred jobs ... at the point in time when we were dealing with this in 2020, it was more important to help them to stay in the workforce than to be forced to exit," she said.

Among resident workers, women were also more prone to retrenchment than men in 2020, unlike preceding years when men typically had a higher incidence of retrenchment, said the report.

"This was due to an increase in female share of resident retrenchments (from 45 per cent to 50 per cent) over the year, mainly in arts, entertainment and recreation and retail trade, industries which were more affected by COVID-19 measures and where females were over-represented," added the report.

The MOM report also found older residents in their 50s were most prone to retrenchment, relative to other age groups. While all age groups saw a broad-based increase in the incidence of retrenchment over the year, older residents aged 50 and over, as well as younger ones aged below 30 saw the largest increase.

The number of seasonally-adjusted job vacancies rose to 56,500 in December 2020, a high last seen in March 2019.

"This partly reflects the government support measures to encourage hiring," said MOM.

The Singapore economy is expected to see a gradual recovery over the course of the year, although the pace of recovery "is likely to be uneven across sectors", it added.

"Labour market conditions remain uncertain although we have started 2021 on a firmer footing than in 2020," said MOM. "Labour market recovery may be gradual and uneven across sectors."

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Singapore's sharpest fall in employment in more than 20 years borne by non-resident workers: MOM

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(Updated: ) Share this content SINGAPORE: Singapore recorded its sharpest fall in total employment in more than two decades in 2020, with non-resident workers accounting for all of the employment decline, said the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) on Tuesday (Mar 16).

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Unemployment in SIA

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Singapore

BATTERED by the pandemic, Singapore Airlines (SIA) will cull 4,300 positions as a slower-than-expected recovery in travel demand forces the airline group to restructure to face a new normal.

Of the 4,300 positions, 2,400 staff in Singapore and abroad could be hit by lay-offs, while the remaining 1,900 roles will be accounted for through natural attrition, a recruitment freeze and voluntary-departure schemes. Collectively, SIA, SilkAir and Scoot employed over 21,000 staff at the end of the previous financial year.

The retrenchment exercise at SIA, one of the bigger ones by a company in Singapore this year, comes as little surprise as the airline industry battles its biggest crisis yet.

BT understands from sources that the number of Singaporeans affected by lay-offs are a single-digit percentage of the 2,400 roles.

In response to queries from BT, a spokesperson for Singapore's flag carrier said: "The SIA Group has always had a strong Singapore core, which will be further strengthened after this exercise."

Economists that BT spoke to said that job losses in Singapore could continue to mount and the unemployment level will likely rise further as the nation takes a calibrated approach to re-opening its economy. Singapore's jobless rate stood at about 2.9 per cent in the second quarter.

"We may see more pressure on the Singapore labour market as companies navigate their way through this delicate economic recovery," said economist Song Seng Wun from CIMB Private Banking. He pointed to hard-hit sectors such as aviation and those linked to the sector such as aerospace players and airline caterers.

UOB economist Barnabas Gan expects the unemployment rate to hit 3.5 per cent this year, especially as wage support in the form of the Jobs Support Scheme (JSS) tapers off for some sectors.

Other sectors seen by economists as vulnerable to retrenchments include construction and retail.

While the JSS has now been extended till March 2021, the most vulnerable industries will get 50 per cent of the first S$4,600 of gross monthly wages for local employees, down from 75 per cent previously. Less hard-hit sectors are receiving 10-30 per cent support and for some, that support even tapers off by December.

Maybank Kim Eng senior economist Chua Hak Bin suggested that the various government incentives may eventually help with job losses by the fourth quarter. "I think Singapore deferred the point of reckoning. Many other countries saw unemployment jump in the second quarter."

Maybank Kim Eng forecasts 180,000-220,000 job losses for the full year, which suggests some way to go from the 148,000 lay-offs in the first six months of this year.

At the same time, there are some areas that are performing better than others such as e-commerce, logistics, healthcare, insurance and the financial sectors, which helps with job creation, economists added.

In a note to staff on Thursday, SIA chief Goh Choon Phong said: "From the outset, the SIA group's priorities were to ensure our survival and save as many jobs as possible.

"Given the expectation that the road to recovery will be long and (uncertain), it has come to the point where we have to make the painfully difficult decision to implement involuntary staff-reduction measures."

Affected SIA Group employees in Singapore are expected to receive one month of salary per year of service, capped at 25 months. They will also receive pay in lieu of their notice period, and any bonuses that are due.

"The move is a necessary one as the group seeks to reduce cash burn," said UOB Kay Hian transport analyst K Ajith. "Staff costs is the highest cash operating expense now that many of its aircraft are grounded."

He estimates that SIA may fully utilise the S$8.8 billion in funds that it earlier raised via a rights issue by end-March 2021.

Including the S$8.8 billion, the Temasek-backed group has raised S$11 billion in liquidity so far and also has shareholder approval to issue a further S$6.2 billion in additional mandatory convertible bonds next year should it need to.

In response to queries, an SIA spokesperson said - without revealing figures - that the restructuring, coupled with government support schemes and other cost-cutting measures at the airline would "significantly reduce (its) wage costs".

Over the past few months, the group has introduced measures to contain costs such as deferring expenditure, cutting salaries, rolling out various no-pay leave schemes, as well as offering voluntary early-retirement or release schemes to ground staff, pilots and cabin crew.

However, with travel not expected to recover till 2024, nearly 1,000 SIA and SilkAir cabin crew are expected to lose their jobs. The restructuring exercise is due to take place over the next one week.

It is understood that talks between the pilots union and the airline are still ongoing, although it is expected that the Singaporean core will likely remain intact. Meanwhile, ground staff - who are represented both by the Air Transport Executive Staff Union (AESU) and Singapore Airlines Staff Union (SIASU) - are generally not affected due to attrition, non-filling of roles and the take up for voluntary schemes, BT understands.

"For the last six to eight months, the SIA Group has been trying to hold on to the crew," said Alan Tan, head of SIASU. About 1,600 crew have been placed on various Ambassadors programmes such as healthcare, transport and contact tracing as part of the government's efforts to fight the pandemic.

Mr Tan, who was with the SIA Group during the Sars outbreak in 2003, added: "This is one of the worst crises that the airline has seen to date." A few hundred staff were retrenched during the Sars outbreak.

The pandemic has battered airlines globally as countries closed borders to control the spread of the virus. SIA, which spilled red ink to the tune of S$1.12 billion in Q1 of FY20/21, has said that it expects to operate at less than half its capacity by the end of March next year. In the same quarter, passenger carriage collapsed by 99.5 per cent as SIA found itself harder hit than other airlines owing to the lack of a hinterland.

With the recovery in air travel proving slower than anticipated, the group's airlines are expected to operate a smaller fleet and a reduced network vis-a-vis before the pandemic.

Analysts say that the parent airline - which is on track to merge with SilkAir in Q1 of 2021 - will predominantly operate aircraft such as the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 as well as SilkAir's narrow-body Boeing 737. With travel demand depressed, bigger widebody aircraft such as the Boeing 777 and A380 are likely be sidelined in the near-term.

Shares in SIA closed at S$3.54 on Thursday, down four cents.

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Singapore BATTERED by the pandemic, Singapore Airlines (SIA) will cull 4,300 positions as a slower-than-expected recovery in travel demand forces the airline group to restructure to face a new normal. Of the 4,300 positions, 2,400 staff in Singapore and abroad could be hit by lay-offs, while the remaining 1,900 roles will be accounted for through natural attrition, a recruitment freeze and voluntary-departure schemes.

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Growth of Singapore's economy

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SINGAPORE - The Singapore economy grew at a much faster pace in the first quarter of this year, running past earlier estimates by both the Government and most analysts.

The final estimate for first-quarter growth came at 1.3 per cent on a yearly basis, compared with an earlier gross domestic product (GDP) estimate of a 0.2 per cent rise and the 2.4 per cent contraction recorded in the previous quarter, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said on Tuesday (May 25).

The January-March expansion was even higher than the 0.9 per cent growth projected by economists in a Reuters poll.

The surprisingly strong performance in the first quarter and confidence over robust demand for exports are likely to balance the risk from the recent tightening of domestic restrictions and border controls. Hence, Singapore maintained its economic growth forecast range for this year at 4 per cent to 6 per cent, MTI said in a statement.

The full-year forecast will be reviewed again in August, when there is more data and greater clarity over the global and domestic economic situations, it said.

Analysts said the first-quarter performance would have called for an upgrade of the official forecast. However, a recent Covid-19 upsurge at home and abroad have tempered such expectations.

MTI said uncertainties have increased and are characterised by both upside and downside risks, especially arising from the coronavirus pandemic at home and abroad.

Earlier this month, Singapore tightened its safety measures to contain a surprise surge in local community Covid-19 cases. The phase two (heightened alert) restrictions that will remain in effect until mid-June have raised concerns over the full-year growth target.

Mr Gabriel Lim, MTI's permanent secretary, said the external economic environment has improved since February, mainly due to upgrades in the growth outlook for advanced economies like the United States.

"At the same time, however, the pandemic continues to disrupt activities in many economies, threatening to undermine any recovery," he said at a media briefing after the release of the first-quarter Economic Survey report.

Mr Lim noted that while the recent tightening of domestic restrictions and border controls represents a setback to segments of the Singapore economy, the broader economy should still see a recovery this year in tandem with the global economic rebound and further progress in the domestic vaccination programme.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, the economy grew by 3.1 per cent during the first three months of this year, extending the 3.8 per cent expansion in the fourth quarter of last year.

The first-quarter growth came on the back of the manufacturing sector's 10.7 per cent year-on-year expansion, faster than the 10.3 per cent growth recorded in the previous quarter.

MTI said the Jan-March growth was due to output expansions in the electronics, precision engineering and chemicals clusters, which outweighed output declines in transport engineering, general manufacturing and biomedical manufacturing.

The wholesale trade sector expanded by 3.5 per cent year on year, faster than the 1.8 per cent growth registered in the previous quarter, and the retail trade sector grew by 1.4 per cent.

Growth of the information and communications sector accelerated to 6.4 per cent year on year, from the 2.6 per cent achieved in the previous quarter.

However, the construction sector contracted by 22.7 per cent and the transportation and storage sector shrank by 16.5 per cent, compared with the same period last year. The food and beverage service sector contracted by 9.4 per cent year on year.

MTI said that while it is still possible that the Singapore economy will outperform the 4 per cent to 6 per cent growth forecast for this year, there are also significant downside risks, with the most important being the trajectory of the pandemic.

"Countries are experiencing recurring waves of infections, with the emergence of more transmissible strains of the virus, the easing of safe management restrictions and delays in vaccinating populations," MTI said.

The ministry said these resurgences, as well as the countries' public health responses to them, will inevitably affect their economic growth. As these countries include some of Singapore's major economic partners, the uncertainty in their outlook will also affect the Republic.

Mr Lim said the experience of the last 15 months shows there is hope that even if outbreaks flare up again, countries will be able to avoid repeated blanket lockdowns and their high economic cost.

He added: "Taking into account the above factors, and considering the larger-than-usual degree of uncertainty over the course of the pandemic globally as well as our domestic situation, MTI has decided to maintain the GDP growth forecast for 2021 at 4 per cent to 6 per cent for now."

Mr Irvin Seah, senior economist at DBS Bank, said he would stick to his full-year forecast of 6.3 per cent as the stronger-than-expected first quarter will help to partially offset the potential decline in the April-June period.

Ms Selena Ling, OCBC Bank's chief economist and head of treasury research and strategy, said the 4 per cent floor in the MTI forecast was quite conservative to start with, given the depth of last year's recession - a record 5.4 per cent contraction.

For the rest of the year, the growth trajectory will depend on whether the Covid-19 situation and tightening measures get prolonged into the third quarter, both for the region and domestic economies, as well as whether manufacturing as the growth driver continues to sustain.

However, some analysts who had been more bullish did lower their projections.

Mr Sin Beng Ong, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase Bank, said he has revised down Singapore's full-year 2021 GDP growth to 7 per cent from an earlier estimate of 7.8 per cent.

"The revisions are due to the tightening of stringency measures following a rise in Covid-19 cases, with its impact on the non-tradable sectors even as resilience in the manufacturing sector remains," he said.

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Singapore economy grows 1.3% in Q1 but no change to GDP forecast for 2021

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SINGAPORE - The Singapore economy grew at a much faster pace in the first quarter of this year, running past earlier estimates by both the Government and most analysts.

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Rise in Singapore's overall unemployment rate
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/unemployment-rate-singapore-august-covid-19-13218836

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/jobs/spores-employment-level-saw-sharpest-decline-in-two-decades-in-2020-with-foreigners

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-jobless-unemployment-rate-september-retrenchments-13413258

Survey on travelling after Covid-19
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/inmarsat-aviation-survey-covid-19-respondents-singapore-travel-13507330

SIA to increase flight capacity
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/sia-to-increase-flights-reaching-15-of-usual-capacity-by-year-end

Drop in airfares
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/airfares-airlines-arent-raising-prices-amid-covid-19-pandemic.html

SIA Group's passenger carriage

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-airlines-group-operating-results-january-2021-covid-19-14202026

SIA's first annual net loss
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-airlines-sia-q4-full-year-results-covid-19-coronavirus-12732134

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The impact of drop in airfares in the core inflation of Singapore

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SINGAPORE - Core inflation last month fell into negative territory - the first time in a decade - as the coronavirus outbreak sent airfares and holiday expenses slumping.

Core inflation, which excludes the costs of accommodation and private road transport, fell sharply to -0.1 per cent year on year last month, from 0.3 per cent in January, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said on Monday (March 23).

This was the lowest for core inflation since it hit -0.5 per cent in January 2010.

Overall inflation also came in lower at 0.3 per cent in February on a year-on-year basis, compared with 0.8 per cent in the preceding month.

This occurred mainly due to the fall in core inflation as well as lower private transport inflation, MAS and MTI noted.

The core inflation and overall inflation forecast ranges will be released in MAS' upcoming monetary policy statement, they said, bypassing usual forecasts stated in the monthly inflation reports.

The forecast range stated last month was 0.5 to 1.5 per cent for core inflation and overall inflation.

The cost of services fell to -0.4 per cent in February, a slide from the 0.5 per cent in January, because of the fall in airfares and holiday expenses.

Private transport inflation was also lower due to a smaller increase in car and petrol prices, falling to 2.4 per cent last month from 4.6 per cent in January.

Food inflation dropped to 1.6 per cent last month, from the 1.7 per cent the month earlier, as the prices of prepared meals recorded smaller increases, while non-cooked food inflation was broadly unchanged.

The cost of electricity and gas fell at a slower pace, to -7.4 per cent in February from the -8.1 per cent the month before, as the Open Electricity Market had a smaller dampening effect on electricity prices, following a slowdown in new take-up rates.

Accommodation costs registered a larger increase, going up to 0.4 per cent last month, from 0.3 per cent the month earlier, in line with a stronger pickup in housing rentals.

The cost of retail and other goods fell at a more gradual pace, to -1 per cent, from -1.4 per cent in January, as clothing and footwear items and medicines and health products recorded smaller price declines.

MAS and MTI said that in the quarters ahead, external sources of inflation are likely to remain benign, amid weak demand conditions and generally well-supplied food and oil commodity markets.

"Oil prices declined sharply in March and could stay depressed for an extended period amid the global economic slowdown and an anticipated rise in oil supply," they said.

"However, international measures to contain the Covid-19 outbreak have led to supply chain disruptions, which could put some upward pressure on imported food prices."

The Covid-19 outbreak has weighed heavily on the aviation and tourism industries, which could in turn lower the prices of travel-related items in the CPI basket, they noted.

"In addition, the implementation of safe distancing measures and fall in tourist arrivals have dampened consumer demand, and will cap any price increases for discretionary goods and services."

Meanwhile, labour market conditions will continue to soften and dampen wage growth this year. The economic uncertainty from the outbreak is also likely to discourage firms from passing on any cost increases to consumers.

Inflationary pressures are thus expected to remain subdued in the near term, they noted. MAS and MTI said they will closely monitor price trends and assess the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on inflation.
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Singapore core inflation turned negative in February, 1st time in decade, as coronavirus upends travel

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SINGAPORE - Core inflation last month fell into negative territory - the first time in a decade - as the coronavirus outbreak sent airfares and holiday expenses slumping.

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SIA's measures to build up its liquidity, and to reduce capital expenditure and operating costs
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/sia-to-cut-96-of-capacity-grounds-138-of-its-147-planes

Constant negative inflation rate in Singapore
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/singapore-core-overall-inflation-stay-negative-in-may

Press Release - Singapore Consumer Price Index, May 2021
https://www.singstat.gov.sg/whats-new/latest-news/cpi-highlights

S'pore's employment level saw sharpest decline in two decades in 2020, with foreigners bearing brunt
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/jobs/spores-employment-level-saw-sharpest-decline-in-two-decades-in-2020-with-foreigners

Statistics on Singapore's national accounts
https://www.singstat.gov.sg/find-data/search-by-theme/economy/national-accounts/latest-data

Infographic on Singapore's economy from the Department of Statistics
https://www.singstat.gov.sg/modules/infographics/economy

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Macroeconomics Prelim Analysis [Based on 4 key sources of information]

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Macroeconomics Prelim Analysis [Based on 4 key sources of information]

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1. Economic situation of Singapore [Angela]
Support from key sources:
- Even though the C0VID-19 outbreak has affected the state of Singapore's economy, Singapore's current economy has been increasing since the beginning of 2021. Growth forecast has been range between 4 and 6 percent in 2021. Overall, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.3 percent, and the per capita GDP is $82,503.
- The Ministry of Trade and Industry has mentioned that the COVID-19 pandemic could also threaten any chances of recovery of the economy.
- However, there are some countries that are being heavily affected by the pandemic and are also Singapore's trade partners, thus this could also affect Singapore's economy.
- Manufacturing (21.5 percent of Singapore's GDP) and wholesale trade for the majority of the country's GDP (16.8 percent ).
- Mainland China, Malaysia, the United States, the European Union, Taiwan, and Hong Kong are the top six trading partners.

2. General price levels situation in Singapore [Shavetha]
Support from key sources:
- Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation has been negative in all categories, including transportation and clothing. It has also resulted in a tempering of demand-pull inflation, with a reduction of 96 percent of SIA's planned capacity and the grounding of 138 of 147 SIA aircraft. There was also a decrease in oil prices noted.
- Clothing and footwear, as well as other miscellaneous products and services, were recorded as lower in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2020 and 2021 compared to the previous year. The total proportion for clothes has dropped by 4.9 percent, while the percentage for other miscellaneous products and services has dropped by 0.9 percent.

3. Labour market situation in the Industry [Jeannat]
Support from key sources:
- Tourism, especially the airline sector, is one of the industries that has suffered massive earnings losses and a high unemployment rate. As the majority of countries throughout the world closed their borders to restrict and contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant increase in retrenchment since no one could travel.
- With travel not anticipated to rebound until 2024, over 1,000 Singapore Airlines cabin crew members are laid off. As part of the government's attempts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, over 1,600 crew members have been assigned to different Ambassadors programs such as healthcare, transportation, and contact tracking.
- The airline sector is in a precarious position because it lacks a local market that can be the first to recover. Given the lengthy path to recovery and the pressing need for airlines to adjust to an uncertain future. Hence, the demand for air travel dropped as there was no need for employees to hire more staff in the airline industry.

4. Labour market situation in Singapore as a whole [Annisa]
Support from key sources:
- The unemployment rate increased from 2.3 percent (2019) to 3 percent (2020). The overall number of layoffs for the year 2020 is 26,110, which is more than double the total number of layoffs for the year 2019. The impact of unemployment differed depending on age, gender, and industry.
- The main cause for the large disparity in unemployment rates and the decline in the labor market is due to COVID-19 and the circuit breaker. As no one could travel, eat out, or enjoy leisure activities, industries such as retail, tourism, and food and beverage industries suffered significantly. As a result, with the inability to cope with the huge profit loss, many workers were retrenched from their own company. Some even went from full-time to part-time or temporary positions.
- In comparison to the above-mentioned industries, public administration and education, health and social services, information and communications, and professional services saw a far more favorable and blooming influence. People are more interested in taking advantage of these employment possibilities since they are still in demand and surviving in the labor market.

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                                                                                                                                            STAGE 2

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                                                                                                                                            STAGE 2

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MACROECONOMIC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS

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hi hi thank you guys for completing this stage 1 on time despite the amount of projects and assignments we have to hand in every week. It was not easy but glad we managed to finish it on time ~ Let's keep it up during Stage 2!

One area for improvement as a team would be to perhaps voice out any opinions you guys have bravely. There is no right or wrong answer; we can discuss them after all.

One interesting fact I discovered was that I did not know that the unemployment rate was high in Singapore. The pandemic situation really affected everyone not in terms of just physical health aspects, but also other important things like mental health, stability, etc.

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Hello friends, thank you and congratulations on finishing the first part of the project effectively.

One good thing about our group is we are very focused when it comes to the project. There is no distractions and we all help one another without just pushing the work to one person.

One area for improvement as a team is we can have more open communication. I understand that it takes time and as a group leader/member, I see that all of you are trying your best. Thank you for that and let's continue to work hard as a team.

One interesting fact I learnt is that SIA is more like the backbone for Singapore's economy. It plays a huge part. I always thought the backbone for Singapore's economy was the businesses brought in by companies.

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What's up friends! Kudos to us for completing the first task of this project 👏 I am impressed as to how everyone guides and helps each other in ensuring that we understand the project requirements despite me being a new addition to this group. Let's continue to do our very best for the upcoming tasks alright! ^_^

One area for improvement as a team is to improve our communication effectively. Feel free to express your own opinions and provide constructive criticism if we find ourselves lack in direction!

One interesting fact is learning that Singapore Airlines's market structure is an oligopoly. Even though they may have a small number of firms sharing a large proportion of this industry, they hold 33% of the market share in Singapore's airline market which is a relatively huge percentage as compared to other airlines that only take up less than 5% of the market share.

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One thing that i think our group did great on is being able to cooperate well with one another and manage to meet deadlines.

One area of improvement is that we could maybe be able to have better communication with one another, because we would then be able to listen to one another's opinions and criticisms which is useful in this project.

One interesting fact that i found out is that Singapore Airlines, a huge and successful airline company can lose a large amount of profit in such a short time due to COVID-19, and it is interesting how a change in circumstances can greatly affect businesses.

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Net loss due to less people travelling

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Singapore Airlines posts first annual net loss in 48-year history after COVID-19 cripples demand

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SINGAPORE: National carrier Singapore Airlines on Thursday (May 14) reported the first annual net loss in its 48-year history after COVID-19 crippled travel demand, saying that it has set up an internal task force to review its operations and to prepare for when air travel recovers.

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Visitor arrival falls

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SINGAPORE: Singapore's tourism sector experienced its "toughest year on record" in 2020 due to unprecedented global travel restrictions and border closures amid the COVID-19 pandemic, said the Singapore Tourism Board (STB) on Monday (Feb 1).

Visitor arrivals plummeted 85.7 per cent to 2.7 million, down from 19.1 million the year before, according to official data. Nearly all of these arrivals were in the first two months of 2020, said STB.

Tourism receipts also fell 78.4 per cent to S$4.4 billion in the first three quarters of 2020, the tourism board added. The country recorded almost S$27.7 billion in receipts for the whole of 2019.

Even with the development of several COVID-19 vaccines, it will take time for mass leisure travel and traveller confidence to return, said STB, adding that tourism arrivals and receipts are expected to remain "weak" this year.

"Singapore's tourism sector has had to fight for survival in 2020. Our tourism businesses have displayed immense resilience and adaptability throughout this difficult period, reinventing their business models and leveraging technology to find solutions in a COVID-19 world," said STB chief executive Keith Tan.

He added that he was grateful for the commitment by tourism businesses to keep Singaporeans safe and well.

The agency remains confident in Singapore's position as "one of the world's safest and most attractive leisure and business" destinations, as well as the long-term prospects of the country's tourism sector, said Mr Tan.
CONTRIBUTIONS TO COVID-19 EFFORTS
He added: "While mass international travel is unlikely to resume in a major way in 2021, STB will continue standing together with our industry partners to prepare for recovery and to start building a better and more sustainable future for tourism."

Tourism businesses played a key role in Singapore's battle against COVID-19, the tourism board highlighted in a media release.

Hotels offered their properties for government quarantine, swab isolation and stay-home notice dedicated facilities, serving more than 80,000 people on stay-home notice with the support of more than 2,300 frontline hospitality workers as of the end of last year, said STB.

"The Singapore Hotel Association is privileged to contribute to the remarkable collaboration between public and private sectors. It was inspiring to see how everyone banded together during the most existential crisis of our lifetime," said the association's president Kwee Wei-lin.

The integrated resorts also contributed, with staff members serving at community care facilities, where they managed operations, provided meals and packed care kits.

Marina Bay Sands donated about 15,000kg of food and packed 15,000 care kits for migrant workers and low-income families affected by the pandemic.

The cruise industry provided accommodation for more than 8,200 migrant workers who had recovered from COVID-19, with more than 600 cruise industry workers involved in the operation between April and September last year, said STB.
REOPENING SAFELY
Tour guides also stepped up as safe distancing ambassadors, with about 150 guides serving in this capacity at tourism precincts and establishments since April last year. STB said it expects to grow this number to more than 250 safe distancing ambassadors in the coming months.

The agency's report card also recounted how the tourism sector navigated the challenge of reopening safely after Singapore exited its "circuit breaker" in June last year.

A total of 45 tourist attractions, 270 hotels and 1,686 tour itineraries have received approval to resume operations as of Jan 25, it said.

Singapore also piloted cruises with enhanced safety protocols and no ports of call from November last year, establishing a mandatory audit and certification programme for cruise lines to resume sailing.

More than 42,000 passengers set sail on 33 cruises with no reported transmission of COVID-19 on board as of the end of 2020, said STB.

More than 1,390 SG Clean certificates, which indicates that a business adheres to a high level of environmental public hygiene, have been awarded to tourism-related premises.

Piloting meetings, incentives, conventions and exhibitions (MICE) events was part of the sector's reopening as well. The country has held 29 MICE event pilots as of the end of last year, starting with the Singapore International Energy Week at the end of October, said STB.

Singapore also developed testing protocols for foreign delegates and other visitors arriving for events, such as TravelRevive and the ONE Championship events, to safeguard public health, said the board.

As of Jan 1, more than 300,000 Singaporeans have used SingapoRediscovers vouchers to make bookings, spending S$35.9 million in redemptions and out-of-pocket payments since the launch in December last year.

These initiatives to revive tourism have helped members of the Singapore Hotel Association to protect jobs and upskill the hotel workforce while the sector prepares for the gradual return of international travellers, said Ms Kwee.

The Society of Tourist Guides Singapore has seen "encouraging" demand from residents for domestic tours following the launch of the voucher scheme, said the society's chairman Jean Wang.

"We look forward to continuing our contributions towards our national COVID-19 efforts, and to sharing more stories of Singapore's rich heritage with locals," she said.

To ensure that Singapore remains "top of mind" even while international travel is curtailed, STB's regional offices have also launched initiatives including digital content and online and offline events to strengthen the country's brand image around the world, the agency added.

"Keeping the Singapore destination appeal fresh and energised during these very challenging times has been our top priority," said Association of Singapore Attractions chairman Kevin Cheong.
BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION, JOB PRESERVATION
"STB and our members have also worked very closely to ensure 'play' is not only fun, but safe for our guests and staff. We are all in the tourism frontline and must continue to stay vigilant in the year ahead."

Turning to industry transformation in the post-pandemic world, STB said that the Government's Tourism Recovery Action Task Force, formed in February last year, has helped to identify opportunities arising from COVID-19, implement measures to co-create recovery plans with businesses and instil confidence in the country's tourism sector.

The Alliance for Action on Enabling Safe and Innovative Visitor Experiences under the Emerging Stronger Taskforce also pioneered new ways to facilitate visitor experiences in a COVID-19 environment and launched COVID-19 insurance coverage for visitors' "added peace of mind", said STB.

In the MICE sector, the Singapore Association of Convention and Exhibition Organisers and Suppliers (SACEOS) worked with STB and Enterprise Singapore to launch the Event Industry Resilience Roadmap.

"2020 has been a year of disruptive change. It has led to the industry pivoting to hybrid event platforms and reskilling to adapt and remain relevant," said Mr Aloysius Arlando, president of SACEOS.

The hotel industry continued to upskill workers, with the number of trainees funded under the Training Industry Professionals in Tourism scheme more than doubling last year.

"This is testament to our tourism businesses' commitment to upskill employees to future-proof their workforce," said STB.

Hotels including Grand Hyatt Singapore, Parkroyal on Kitchener Road and Raffles Hotel also trained employees in new skills that allowed them to be redeployed to other areas outside of their specialisations, alleviating manpower challenges while providing job expansion opportunities, added the agency.

STB also highlighted the funding programmes and data tools it developed to help tourism businesses with transformation, including a partnership to support marketing efforts, the Business Improvement Fund, its Tourism Transformation Index and the Singapore Tourism Analytics Network.

Tourism workers and businesses have benefited from economic-wide measures, including rental waivers, property tax rebates and temporary bridging loans, to support jobs and livelihoods impacted by COVID-19, said STB.

Last year, more than 7,000 tourism businesses received support through the Job Support Scheme to retain local employees. As of the end of 2020, 57 grant applications to defray third-party professional cleaning costs by tourism-related establishments impacted by COVID-19 cases were also approved.

"In 2021, STB will continue to support quality tourism businesses to sustain key capabilities and build new ones, and to innovate in order to meet evolving consumer needs and emerging travel trends once cross-border travel resumes in a significant way," said the board.
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"STB will also continue to support local jobs and create opportunities for the industry to thrive in the new environment by encouraging domestic advocacy and building domestic demand."

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Visitor arrivals to Singapore plummet more than 80% in 2020, expected to stay weak amid COVID-19: STB

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(Updated: ) Share this content SINGAPORE: Singapore's tourism sector experienced its "toughest year on record" in 2020 due to unprecedented global travel restrictions and border closures amid the COVID-19 pandemic, said the Singapore Tourism Board (STB) on Monday (Feb 1). Visitor arrivals plummeted 85.7 per cent to 2.7 million, down from 19.1 million the year before, according to official data.

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Unemployment Rate

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SINGAPORE: Singapore's unemployment rate rose to 3.6 per cent in September but at a slower rate compared to previous months, as the country reopened from a COVID-19-induced slowdown.

Even then, officials warned that labour market conditions will stay soft amid the prolonged economic downturn.

Third quarter estimates from the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) released on Friday (Oct 30) showed that the overall unemployment rate crept up by 0.2 percentage points from 3.4 per cent in August, which had already surpassed the high recorded during the peak of the global financial crisis.

The rate among Singaporeans and permanent residents went up from 4.6 per cent in August to 4.7 per cent, while the citizen unemployment rate increased from 4.7 per cent in August to 4.9 per cent.

This brings the total number of unemployed residents to 112,500, of which 97,700 are Singaporeans.

The pace of increase slowed in September - a 0.1 to 0.2 point hike - compared to the 0.3 to 0.4 point gains seen in the previous months, the ministry noted.

A total of 9,100 workers - 7,000 in services, 1,900 in manufacturing and 200 in construction - are likely to be retrenched in the third quarter, exceeding previous recessionary highs except the one during the global financial crisis, when 12,760 people were retrenched in the first quarter of 2009.

The latest estimate brings the expected number of layoffs so far this year to 20,450, of which 57 per cent are residents.

MOM warned that retrenchments are forecast to rise over the quarter in the manufacturing and services sector, primarily in arts, entertainment and recreation, and air transport, as these areas continue to be affected by the pandemic and the need for safe management measures.

On the other hand, there will be fewer job losses in construction as activities in the sector have gradually resumed after the "circuit breaker", the ministry said.

Employment - excluding foreign domestic workers - shrank by 26,900, largely due to the number of job cuts among non-residents in the construction and manufacturing sector.

This comes after a record 103,800 decline in the second quarter.

However, employment picked up in the services sector, mainly among community, social and personal services such as healthcare and public administration, and food and beverage players, MOM said. Resident employment also rebounded in the third quarter to near pre-COVID-19 levels, from 2.29 million in June to 2.34 million in September.

Resident employment was 2.36 million at the end of last year.

Non-resident employment continued to fall, from 1.10 million in June to 1.03 million in September. It was at 1.17 million in December last year.

MOM said though there were job gains among residents as businesses resumed, the labour market will remain soft.

"Weakness in the labour market is likely to persist as companies and workers continue to operate in an uncertain economic environment. Conditions for travel-related sectors continue to remain challenging," the ministry said.

"There remains significant uncertainty over the length and severity of the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as the global economy's trajectory of recovery," it added.

Manpower Minister Josephine Teo said that it is "very encouraging" local employment managed to grow.

"(The) the collective efforts of employers and employees, resumption of activities, plus job-matching - I think all these contributed to employment expanding among locals," said Mrs Teo.

And though the jobless rate went up, the fact that employment also grew offers "some hope".

"It means that people are joining the search, but also people are getting the work," she said at a press conference on the labour market update on Friday.

However, she cautioned against assuming that the local employment rebound would be sustained going forward.

Mrs Teo said that while the tail end of the year usually sees a spike in employment due to travel demands and shoppers buying for the holidays, travel remains muted and consumers are likely to tighten their belts this year. Some companies may retrench if they need to rework their business model in the medium-term, she added.
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The Monetary Authority of Singapore cautioned on Wednesday that while the local jobless rate is likely to bottom out at the end of this year, it is likely to stay elevated in 2021 as recovery will remain sluggish.

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Singapore's jobless rate climbs to 3.6%; more than 20,000 retrenched year-to-date

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(Updated: ) Share this content SINGAPORE: Singapore's unemployment rate rose to 3.6 per cent in September but at a slower rate compared to previous months, as the country reopened from a COVID-19-induced slowdown. Even then, officials warned that labour market conditions will stay soft amid the prolonged economic downturn.

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Microeconomics Prelim Analysis [Based on 4 key sources of information]  

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Microeconomics Prelim Analysis [Based on 4 key sources of information]  

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1. Market structure of the airline industry: Oligopoly Competition [Shavetha]
Support from key sources:
- In Singapore, flights are limited but they are large companies

- SIA: the main airlines in Singapore

- Has a substantial market power

- Holds a market share of 33% of the airline market in Singapore

2. Demand for air travel decreased over the recent months [Annisa]

Support from key sources:
- The overall visitor arrivals fell from 85.7 per cent to 2.7 million, down from 19.1 million the year before, due to COVID-19 and travel restrictions.

- Such causes has affected the demand for air travel in terms of expectations and numbers of visitors

2. Changes in the taste and preferences of buyers. [Angela]
Support from key sources:
- Fear of COVID-19 made many people not want to travel anymore
- People not wanting to travel anymore caused SIA to make a net loss of $212 million
- The annual passenger flown revenue for the year was also 1.2% lower than the previous year

3. Changes in consumer income affects demand for travelling. [Jeannat]
Support from key sources:
- Due to the pandemic situation, the unemployment rate increased from 4.7 percent in August to 4.9 percent.
- The higher the unemployment rate, the lower the income earned which leads to not having enough to travel.
- Many people suffer from retrenchment which includes the travel-related sectors.
- Conditions for travel-related sectors continue to remain challenging; usually the travel demands will increase at end of the year but due to the COVID-19 circumstances, many people have decided to cut back on their spending.

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SIA and its market structure

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In 1947, Malayan Airways Limited started flight services between Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Ipoh and Penang (Securities Investors Association (Singapore), 2006). In 1955, international routes were introduced (Securities Investors Association (Singapore), 2006). The airline was renamed Malaysian Airways Limited with the formation of the Federation of Malaysia on 1963 and then to Malaysia-Singapore Airlines Limited (MSA) in 1966 when Malaysia and Singapore acquired joint control (Securities Investors Association (Singapore), 2006). In 1971, MSA was restructured to Malaysian Airlines System Berhad and Singapore Airlines Limited (Securities Investors Association (Singapore), 2006). On 28 January 1972, SIA was incorporated as a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Singapore government through Temasek Holdings Private Limited, making SIA a public company with limited liabilities (Securities Investors Association (Singapore), 2006). On August 2013, SIA has 102 aircrafts, 14156 employees and served 62 airports or 34 countries (Star Alliance, 2013). SIA is also a member of Star Alliance. SIA has a frequent Flyer Programme, KrisFlyer which gives additional benefits to its loyal customers (Star Alliance, 2013).

The load factor, yield and cost determined the SIA profit (Pangarkar et al, 2010, p.31). Load factor is defined as the percentage of seats occupied in a flight while yield is the revenue for each kilometre travelled by each customer (Pangarkar et al, 2010, p.31). Unit cost is calculated on the basis of available seat kilometres (Pangarkar et al, 2010, p.31).

Source: SIA Annual Report 2012/2013

For SIA to maximise revenue, SIA will have to try to identify the willingness and ability of the passengers to pay different fares (Pangarkar et al, 2010, p.31). Generally, SIA passengers can be divided into business travellers and leisure travellers (Pangarkar et al, 2010, p.31). Business travellers have a slightly inelastic price elasticity of demand and a more elastic time elasticity of demand (Anon, 2010). Business travellers are more willing to pay a premium price for extra amenities such as quality of food, service quality, comfortable seating (Anon, 2010). Travel flexibility, last minute seat availability and low cancelation/delay of flights are also important for a Business traveller (Anon, 2010). Leisure travellers have a more elastic price elasticity of demand and an inelastic time elasticity of demand (Anon, 2010). Leisure travellers are willing to change day and time to get the lowest airfare (Anon, 2010). They will also switch to a different airline with a lower airfare or not travel at all if the fare is too high (Anon, 2010). Flying is a necessity for business travellers who deal with international market but flying is a normal/luxury good to leisure travellers.

The market structure for SIA is an oligopoly. Oligopoly is a market structure whereby a small number of firms share a larger proportion of the industry and the barrier to entry is high (Sloman et al, 2012, p.197). SIA is an oligopoly as SIA holds a market share of 33% of the airline market in Singapore.

Figure: Singapore capacity share (% of seats) by brand: 05-Nov-2012 to 11-Nov-2012

As SIA is an oligopoly, SIA is a price maker instead of a price taker (Sloman et al, 2012, p.197). SIA practises the third degree of price discrimination. The price difference between the economy class and the business and first class is very big (Pangarkar et al, 2010, p.31). Lower income consumers treat flying as a luxury while flying is a normal good for higher income consumers. SIA targets the lower income consumers (economy class) with a lower price and higher amount of seating to sell as many as seats as possible while selling less seats at a higher price to the higher income consumers (business and first class) with the attraction of comfort, quality (Wells,2012). During the holiday season, the demand of air travel by the leisure travellers will increase. As the demand for seats are more than the supply of seats the fare will increase. SIA sells seats in blocks (Anon, 2013). Travellers who book early get the seat at base price, for every additional block sold afterwards, the price will increase as there is great demand for the limited available seats(Anon, 2013).

Source: Learn Economics Online (2013)

Market X is business travellers and market Y is leisure travellers. MR* is the total marginal revenue (horizontal addition of the 2 MR curves) of SIA (Sloman, 2012, p.217). Total profit is maximised at MR=MC at output Q*(Q* = Q ₁+Q ₂) (Sloman, 2012, p.217). Q* is then divided between the markets by selling that amount in each market where MR=MC at the price determined by the relative demand curve of each market. Price discrimination increases the profit of SIA (Sloman, 2012, p.217).

The effect of the rivals' reaction on the change of price and output of SIA is the elasticity of the downward slopping demand curve (Tutor2u). This can be illustrated by the kinked demand curve theory. There are two assumptions made by the theory. The first assumption is if SIA cuts their price, its rivals will be forced to follow its example and cut their prices to prevent the decrease in market share (Spaulding, 2013). The demand curve will be more inelastic for this part (Spaulding, 2013). The second assumption is if SIA increase their prices, its rivals will maintain their price to gain more market share (Spaulding, 2013). This will make the demand curve more elastic (Spaulding, 2013). This difference in elasticity will create a kink in the demand curve of SIA. As the marginal revenue curve depends on prices, the marginal revenue curve is also kink and below the demand curve (Spaulding, 2013). Profits are maximised at MR=MC. So if the MC curve lies anywhere between MC ₁ and MC ₂, the profit maximising price and output will P ₁ and Q 1 (Sloman, 2012, p.207). The price will remain constant even with changes to the costs (Sloman, 2012, p.207).

Source: Spaulding, (2013)

Economies of scope happen when increasing the range of products produced by the firm reduces the cost of producing each one (Sloman, 2012, p.145). SIA 's economies of scope are the subsidiaries companies which it owned, for example, SilkAir, Scoot and Singapore Airlines Cargo (SIA Annual Report 2012/2013). SilkAir mainly operates the regional destinations (South East Asia and India). Scoot is operates the low-cost (budget) long haul flights while Singapore Airlines Cargo is the designated all cargo airline of SIA. All these 3 different airlines can share various overhead costs and financial and organisational economies of SIA (Sloman, 2012, p.145).

SIA is an established airline with a good track record for the last 40 years. SIA has distinguished itself as a pioneer airline in many different aspects such as inflight entertainment, service quality and comfort. SIA has also many subsidiaries airline to cater to the different market of customers (long haul, short haul, and budget). Even though SIA is facing fierce competitions from many rivals and also the rising operations cost, but if SIA manage to survive this though period, SIA will once again be one of the largest long haul airlines.

Pangarkar, N., Singh, K., Heracleous, L. (2010) Business Strategy in Asia: A Casebook. 3 rd ed. Singapore: Cengage Learning Asia

Sloman, J., Wride, A., Garrat, D. (2012) Economics. 8 th ed. Italy: Pearson education Limited.

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In 1947, Malayan Airways Limited started flight services between Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Ipoh and Penang (Securities Investors Association (Singapore), 2006). In 1955, international routes were introduced (Securities Investors Association (Singapore), 2006). The airline was renamed Malaysian Airways Limited with the formation of the Federation of Malaysia on 1963 and then to Malaysia-Singapore Airlines Limited (MSA) in 1966 when Malaysia and Singapore acquired joint control (Securities Investors Association (Singapore), 2006).

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MICROECONOMIC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS