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Debt the weak link

Catalonia's debt represents 35.4 percent of its GDP, which made it the third-most indebted region in Spain in the first quarter of 2017, after Valencia and Castilla La Mancha.

At the end of June, its debt stood at 76.7 billion euros.

Ratings agencies have given it a low, speculative grade, which means Catalonia is not able to borrow directly on financial markets. So it depends on loans emitted by the Spanish state.

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That is not going to happen in our life time, but since you’ve asked... An hypothetical independent Catalonia will be isolated, it won’t be allowed to become part of the EU for a long long time. The reason is that the EU is a union of states, not a union of nations [an ambiguous term]. There is no shortage of independent movements in Europe [4 in France, even Sweden has 1], so no EU state member, certainly not France, will want to open their own can of worms. The result would be that Catalonia would become like Albania in the 60s. A very poor country indeed, cut-off from trade, investments, international institutions, etc. etc. etc. Please, read some the comments above: “Spain a country with few industries” Wow! That explains why Spanish exports are thriving and why Spain is #14 in world by GDP [similar to Australia’s]. You can easily see how brainwashed the pro-independence Catalans have become.There is whole generation in Catalonia that has been taught a distorted view of their own history and the history of Spain, an exaggerated view of their own importance, an unrealistic goal for the future and has created hate against anything Spanish. So the pro-independence movement is not based on optimism or on a positive vision, it’s based on hate. The current government there has lead the Catalans in a wild goose-chase. The predictable result is that frustration, eventually, is going to set-in and there will be a backlash against the pro-independence politicians.1.3k Views · 7 Upvotes

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That is not going to happen in our life time, but since you’ve asked... An hypothetical independent Catalonia will be isolated, it won’t be allowed to become part of the EU for a long long time. The reason is that the EU is a union of states, not a union of nations [an ambiguous term]. There is no shortage of independent movements in Europe [4 in France, even Sweden has 1], so no EU state member, certainly not France, will want to open their own can of worms. The result would be that Catalonia would become like Albania in the 60s. A very poor country indeed, cut-off from trade, investments, international institutions, etc. etc. etc. Please, read some the comments above: “Spain a country with few industries” Wow! That explains why Spanish exports are thriving and why Spain is #14 in world by GDP [similar to Australia’s]. You can easily see how brainwashed the pro-independence Catalans have become.There is whole generation in Catalonia that has been taught a distorted view of their own history and the history of Spain, an exaggerated view of their own importance, an unrealistic goal for the future and has created hate against anything Spanish. So the pro-independence movement is not based on optimism or on a positive vision, it’s based on hate. The current government there has lead the Catalans in a wild goose-chase. The predictable result is that frustration, eventually, is going to set-in and there will be a backlash against the pro-independence politicians.1.3k Views · 7 Upvotes

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Growing participation

Catalans separatists will tell you the independence movement began in the 18th century, when Catalan forces were defeated by the Spanish crown in the War of Spanish Succession in 1714. But as a cause it only really took off in the 20th century.

The region enjoyed a brief moment of autonomy in the 1930s before being brutally suppressed following the Spanish Civil War. The Catalan language was banned from schools and public offices until 1975.

Separatism has taken on new life over the last decade, as Catalans chafe at what they say is heavy-handed treatment by the central government.

“It’s a country that doesn’t ask anyone to get rid of its own identity.” Instead, it encourages them “to be part of a diverse and shared society” — Oriol Amorós, Catalan secretary for equality, migration and citizenship

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what would become of spain without catalonia 

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what would become of spain without catalonia 

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Article 155 of constitution would allow Spanish Government to retake control

This is what Article 155 of the Spanish constitution says:

If an autonomous community does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the constitution or other laws, or acts in a way seriously prejudicing the general interests of Spain, the Government, after lodging a complaint with the president of the autonomous community and failing to receive satisfaction therefore, may, following approval granted by an absolute majority of the Senate, take the measures necessary in order to compel the latter forcibly to meet said obligations, or in order to protect the above-mentioned general interests.

First, the Spanish Government would warn the Catalan Government to put a stop to the move towards independence.

Second, if this warning wasn't heeded, the Spanish Government would seize control of the region.

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Would Catalonia be recognised as a separate country?

So far no country or international body has expressed any support for the Catalan government(asterisk)s independence drive, so any declaration of independence is likely to be rejected, at the beginning at least. The European Union is standing solidly behind Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and says Catalonia would be expelled from the bloc and the shared euro currency.

Economically it is impossible to predict if it could survive. Catalonia has an annual gross domestic product of about 215 billion euros ($257 billion) — the largest of the Spanish regions and greater than Greece's — but many of its goods are supplied by the Spanish state.

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How does their economy affect the issue?

The Catalan region has long been the industrial heartland of Spain – first for its maritime power and trade in goods such as textiles, but recently for finance, services and hi-tech companies.

It is one of the wealthiest regions of Spain - it accounts for 19 per cent of Spain’s GDP, equal with the Madrid region. Madrid, however, has a higher per capita GDP, as do the Basque Country and Navarre regions.

Secession would therefore cost Spain almost 20 per cent of its economic output, and trigger a row about how Catalonia would return 52.5 billion euros of debt it owes to the country’s central administration.

It would have a gross domestic product of $314 billion (£195bn), according to calculations by the OECD, which would make it the 34th largest economy in the world. That would make it bigger than Portugal or Hong Kong.

Its GDP per capita would be $35,000, which would make it wealthier than South Korea, Israel or Italy.

And Catalonia's contribution to the Spanish economy is twice that of Scotland’s to the UK.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/does-catalonia-want-independence-spain/

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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41514682

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General Francisco Franco, however, set out to destroy Catalan separatism and with his victory at the Battle of Ebro in 1938 he took control of the region, killing 3,500 people and forcing many more into exile.

The region was granted a degree of autonomy once more in 1977, when democracy returned to the country.

Calls for complete independence grew steadily until July 2010, when the Constitutional Court in Madrid overruled part of the 2006 autonomy statute, stating that there is no legal basis for recognising Catalonia as a nation within Spain.

The economic crisis in Spain has only served to magnify calls for Catalan independence – as the wealthy Barcelona region is seen as propping up the poorer rest of Spain.