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PNG is the biggest island in the pacific in both geographic and population, however, it is highly vulnerable to employment. Due to institutional, environment and geographical constraints, the youths in the remotest part of PNG are disadvantaged to getting equal employment opportunities. For instance, the uneven land mass is a major economic problem in linking the country by road. This contributes to an unequal development and employment skills in the rural communities of PNG. During wet seasons, it is very difficult to access the main highways connecting cities and villages due to floods and landslides. This however stops the youths from traveling from their villages into cities to look for jobs. As employment demands for youths intensifies, the PNG government needs to respond to this issue as it will affect the stability of the society.

As PNG continues to experience extreme and unpredictable weather patterns and changes, the employment adaptability also will continue to change. Youths in the rural areas are considered unattractive because of lack of basic education opportunities. Many youths leave the rural areas to find better life opportunities in cities, but remains unemployed or under-employed due to insufficient skills and experiences3. Economic uncertainties and private sectors development makes it harder for them to find formal employment. Therefore, it is highly recommended that, in the long-run, the PNG Government and the key policy makers develop activities to support youths in rural areas including5: developing reliable labour market data and information system on youth employment, building employment services and centres for youth, developing a demand driven, coordination and inclusive TVET system, providing entrepreneurship skills development programmes to promote youth entrepreneurship, strengthening the capacity of the social partners and promoting effective solutions for youth employment at the local level and advocating for a national policy on youth employment

References

1. Pacific Climate Change Portal 2014, PNG National Climate Compatible Development Management Policy, viewed 14 August 2017, http://www.pacificclimatechange.net/sites/default/files/documents/National_Climate_Change_Policy1.pdf.

2. Proag, V 2014, `Procedia economics and finance: the concept of vulnerability and resilience’, Journal of ScienceDirect, vol. 18, no. 2014, pp. 369-376, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00952-6

3. Slape, P 2008, Main economic and security challenges facing Paua New Guinea, viewed 14 August 2017, http://www.asu.asn.au/documents/doc_download/283-2008-main-economic-and-security-challenges-facing-papua-new-guinea-and-the-island-states-of-the-southwest-pacific

4. UNDAF 2012-2015, Papua New Guinea United Nations Development Assistance Framework, viewed 14 August 2017, https://www.unicef.org/about/execboard/files/Papua_New_Guinea_-_PNG_UNDAF_2012-2015.pdf

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Emily King - Lavarack Barracks Townsville

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Emily King - Lavarack Barracks Townsville

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Townsville is situated on the North Queensland coast, and is the urban centre of the North Queensland region. The area is characterised by a tropical climate, with distinct seasons influenced by northern Monsoon troughs bringing 80% of rainfall over the summer months, and South-East trade winds producing warm and dry winter conditions (Townsville State of Environment, 2016). Townsville’s coast is bordered by the Coral Sea, which hosts World Heritage listed site, the Great Barrier Reef. The Bureau of Meteorology (2017) has stated that 2017 has continued from the 2016 trend of higher than average sea temperatures, sparking a mass coral bleaching event. These high sea temperatures are conducive to the susceptibility of the area to tropical cyclones, which have a strong relationship with the onset of El Nino and La Nina Oscillation phenomena (Bureau of Meteorology, 2017). Paired with cyclonic susceptibility, the area is prone to flooding during the Monsoonal period. In the winter months, the dry conditions produce heightened bushfire risk and water restrictions are continually enforced due to the low precipitation received during this time. Exacerbating these weather conditions, climate change is proving to demonstrate significant impacts on the area, with future impacts set to disrupt the urban centre on more than just an environmental scale. The Australian Defence Force’s Lavarack Barracks are situated in the suburb of Murray, near the inner suburbs of Townsville and is a major defence facility for the Australian Regular Army. A draft report released by the Department of Environment and Heritage Protection (2017) outlines the impacts climate change will have on the region including higher temperatures, rising sea levels, more intense downpours and less frequent but more intense cyclones. A pilot study conducted in Townsville July 2015, demonstrated the exposure and sensitivity of assets, namely infrastructure, to an expected sea level rise of 80cm (Moore, 2015). An estimated 4400 properties are expected to be at risk of inundation as a result of the sea level rise (Moore, 2015). Compound those effects with intense downpours and cyclonic conditions, the area’s exposure and sensitivity to the impacts of climate change rise significantly. According to Thomas (2011) the Defence estate “encompasses one of the largest real estate portfolios in Australia” at a capital value exceeding $10 billion. The Lavarack Barracks, if inundated or conversely impacted negatively by the effects of climate change, could potentially deem it unusable. This presents vulnerabilities on a political scale, with the Barracks being the headquarters for the Australian Regular Army’s 3rd Brigade, actively involved in international military operations such as OKRA and HIGHROAD in the Middle-Eastern region, as well as providing humanitarian support in vulnerable island nations such as Fiji, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu. This presents a potential national security risk, which may exacerbate social issues and tensions. On a macro scale, the Australian Defence Force has outlined its commitment to dealing with the impacts of climate change, yet assets such as the Lavarack Barracks are not regarded as inclusive within the climate change initiative (Department of Defence, 2016). Compounding this, the industry is unlikely to take any immediate or drastic action to combat climate change before the impacts occur, due to a reluctance to show any impression of singular partisan support, due to the varying and divisive views on climate science amongst Australian Government parties (Thomas, 2011). Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the industry, and thus the Lavarack Barracks within Townsville, is limited in the context of specific adaptation mechanisms for the asset. Consistent with Smit and Wandel (2006), the political, social, economic and environmental factors, as well as the influence of occupance and system characteristics on exposure and sensitivity, reflect a high vulnerability for the industry within Townsville.

References

Department of Defence (2016). 2016 Defence White Paper. [ebook] Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia. Available at: http://www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/docs/2016-defence-white-paper.pdf [Accessed 9 Aug. 2017].

Department of Environment and Heritage Protection (2017). Draft: Climate change in the North Queensland region. [ebook] Queensland: Department of Environment and Heritage Protection. Available at: http://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/assets/documents/climate/north-qld-climate-change-impact-summary.pdf [Accessed 9 Aug. 2017].

Moore, T. (2015). Climate change pilot study shows 4400 properties could flood in Townsville. [online] Brisbane Times. Available at: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/qld-climate-change-pilot-study-shows-4400-properties-could-flood-in-townsville-20151123-gl608p.html [Accessed 9 Aug. 2017].

Townsville State of Environment (2016). Townsville State of Environment Report - Atmosphere. [online] Soe-townsville.org. Available at: http://www.soe-townsville.org/atmosphere.html [Accessed 9 Aug. 2017].

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I decided to change topics from last week. I am going to write about the water pollution that leads to algae blooms in Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Many small towns near the lake, rely on it for fresh drinking water. Tourism is also a big economic sector in that region.

Unfortunately, the lake is being polluted from excess nutrients from the nearby farms and urban areas causing algae blooms. Local citizens and tourists are being exposed to these algal blooms that can be a major health risk¹. Algae blooms can cause skin rashes, diarrhea, or vomiting. The people in this region are sensitive to changes in the water quality because they rely on it for their daily lives².

There are several ways to cope with and adapt to the current problems. One of the solutions is to invest in water treatment plants that are able to treat the toxins from the algae blooms. To prevent excess nutrients from entering the water buffer zones should be created around the perimeter of the lake. The long-term solution to these problems will be laws and regulations should also be implemented to prevent agricultural runoffs. These responses would benefit all stakeholders of the lake because everyone would benefit from the cleaner waters³.

1.      Okeechobee, Florida. (2015). Retrieved August 9, 2017, from http://www.city-

data.com/city/Okeechobee-Florida.html#ixzz4fsmfdKSV.

2.      Guest, D., & Reimer, M. (2006). The Lake Okeechobee Pollution Crisis and the St. Lucie River and Estuary. Earth
Justice,1-10. Retrieved August 9,
2017, from http://www.earthjustice.org/sites/default/files/library/reports/lake-okeechobee-pollution-crisis-and-the-st-lucie-river-and-estuary.pdf

3.
Ramani,
A., K. Rein, K. G. Shetty, and K. Jayachandran. (2011). Microbial degradation of microcystin in Florida’s freshwaters. Biodegradation 23:35–45. Retrieved August 9, 2017, from
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21611743

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Haute-Savoie, South East France - Sébastien Iacometti 

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Haute-Savoie, South East France - Sébastien Iacometti 

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I’m living in a mountainous area called Annecy. It’s just near the border of Switzerland, in the southeast of France (French department of Haute-Savoie).

In France, the climate is basically temperate. But in the mountainous area, the climate is continental that is to say, colder winters (frost and snow) and warm summers.

In mainland France during the 20th century, the global warming is about 30 % greater than the average warming throughout the globe. The average annual temperature has risen by 0.95 °C in mainland France, compared to 0.74 °C globally. An increase of 1.5 °C over the period 1959-2009 (Ten Brinke, 2017).

From 1850 to 1980 glaciers in the Alps lost approximately 30-40% of their area and one half of their mass. Since 1980 until 1995 another 10-20% of the remaining ice has been lost. (Ten Brinke, 2017).

Projected temperature increase over France by 2100 compared with 1960-1990 (A1B emission scenario) is between 2.5°C and 3.5°C. Increases are lower in the north, and higher in southern regions.

Just a little illustration:

In my hometown, we are supposed to have snow during our winters. Several years ago, we still had Christmas with snow. In order to have snow, temperature must be 0°C. Now during Christmas time we can easily have like 10°C. Because of climate change, seasons have been completely modified. Winter comes later. The same for spring and summer. It doesn’t affect only the tourism industry during this period but also the economy, agriculture, health and so on.

More recently, one week ago, in this same area, temperature rose to nearly 40°C. A temperature never seen before. Having 40°C can cause dehydration, death for weak people such as children, or old people … It causes also water restrictions during drought periods sometimes during entire weeks in the middle of summer.

Ten Brinke, W 2017, ClimateChangePost, viewed 7 August 2017, https://www.climatechangepost.com/france/climate-change/

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The Moreton bay region is situated in between the Sunshine Coast and Brisbane city, making this area attractive for residents looking for access to both the Coast lifestyle and the attractions of Brisbane city. The Moreton bay region covers an area of 2,037 km² with a population of just below half a million, making this region the third largest local government within Australia (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2013). The Moreton bay region, as the name implies, is situated alongside a bay of estuarine water which is protected from strong waves by the presence of Bribie Island (Young, 1978). Due to the close proximity of the catchment to the bay however, the region is primarily susceptible to sea level rise and storm surge in addition to precipitation change, heat waves and extreme weather events (Burton, et al., 2009). These climate change threats to the Moreton Bay Regional catchment (MBRC) places the region in a vulnerable position due to impending climate changes. The vulnerability of the MBRC is reflective of how sensitive the region is to hazardous conditions (very sensitive) and the resilience of the region to cope, adapt or recover from the event in question; according to Smit and Wandel (2006). Futhermore, the MBRC has the ability to reduce the regions vulnerability by adapting the region for future climate scenarios (Smit & Wandel , 2006). These future adaptations may involve the implementation of sea walls, groynes, mangrove plantations, highly efficient surface drainage systems etc as to limit the vulnerability of the MBRC region through adaptation and mitigation methods.

References:

Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2013. Perspectives on Regional Australia: Population Growth and Turnover in Local Government Areas (LGAs), 2006 to 2011, s.l.: Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Burton, D. et al., 2009. Scoping Climate Change Risk for MBRC, s.l.: Climate Risk .

Smit, B. & Wandel , J., 2006. Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, Volume 16, p. 282–292.

Young, P. C., 1978. Moreton Bay, Queensland: A Nursery Area for Juvenile Penaeid Prawns. Australian Journal Marine and Freshwater Research , Issue 29, pp. 55-75.

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Fraser Island is one of Australia’s treasures and is on the UNESCO World Heritage list. Fraser Island consists of 75 miles of beach and is an important cultural site to local Butchulla people. 10,000 years ago, Fraser Island was part of Australia’s mainland but due to climate change, it has shown that rising sea levels have put it in the state it is in today (Australian Science, 2015).

Vulnerability assessment on Coastal area’s classed Fraser Island dunes as most vulnerable, meaning significant inland movement and dune erosion (Helman. P, Tomlinson. R, 2009)  Fraser island is also vulnerable to losing land with any land less than 10m above sea level will be lost. (Australian Science, 2015).

Fraser islands ecosystem has shown to diminish with many fish and animals either migrating or becoming extinct. Fraser's ecosystem is unique and sensitive which has shown in recent studies that due to the warming of the oceans, local fish/ marine animals have migrated to cooler waters and eventually lead to lower biodiversity in the region.

References
Helman. P, Tomlinson. R (2009) ‘Coastal vulnerability principles for climate change’ Griffith University, QLD.

Josip (2015) ‘The potential impact of Climate change on Fraser Island’ Australian Science

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The IPCC has identified SEQ as one of six vulnerability hotspots in Australia due to large losses to the built environment from rising sea level, storm surges and flooding (Hennessy et al 2007), which is of great concern as up to 30% of the population live within two kilometres of the coastline (Serrao-Neumann 2013). Along with a sea level rise of about 0.2 metres by 2030, SEQ is expected to experience an increase in high temperatures and the number of days over 35°C, a change in average precipitation, increased storm surges and extreme coastal erosion events resulting in impacts on human health, peak energy demand and reduced water availability for cities, industries, agriculture and natural ecosystems (SEQ CARI). Factors of urban planning and management, coastal management, emergency management, human health and physical infrastructure all play a vital role in developing sustainable development and climate change adaptation (Serrao-Neumann 2013).

Roiko et al. (2012) suggest that population growth will present SEQ’s biggest challenge to sea level rise, as indigenous people, the aged, sole person households and single parent families are increasing, which in turn increases the demand for land, goods, services, energy, infrastructure and ecosystem services. Keys et al. (2013) identify these groups as disproportionately vulnerable with low adaptive capacity due to a lower economic status, lower levels of employment and higher incidence of financial stress. Local biodiversity is increasingly at risk due to current social values favouring development over conservation coupled with insufficient awareness of climate change adaptation requirements amongst the community (Keys et al. 2013)

Hennessy, K, Fitzharris, B, Bates, BC, Harvey, N, Howden, M & Hughes, L 2007, ‘Australia and New Zealand’, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 507-540, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Serrao-Neumann, S, Crick, F, Harman, B, Sano, M, Sahin, O, van Staden, R, Schuch, G, Baum, S & Low Choy, D 2013, ‘Improving cross-sectoral climate change adaptation for coastal settlements: insights from South East Queensland, Australia’, Regional environmental change, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 489-500, doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0442-6

South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQ CARI) 2010, Climate change adaptation in South East Queensland human settlements: Issues and context, viewed 4 August 2017,

https://www.griffith.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/464296/Griffith-University-SEQCARI-Issues-Paper-Oct-2012.pdf

Roiko, A, Mangoyana, RB, McFallan, S, Carter RW, Oliver, J & Smith, TF, 2012, ‘Socio-economic trends and climate change adaptation: the case of South East Queensland’, Australasian Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 35-50, doi: 10.1080/14486563.2011.646754

Keys, N, Bussey, M, Thomsen, DC, Lynam, T & Smith, TF 2013, ‘Building adaptive capacity in South East Queensland, Australia’, Regional environmental change, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 501-512, doi:10.1007/s10113-012-0394-2

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The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is the largest coral reef ecosystem universally and is located off the north-eastern coast of Australia [1]. Not only is the GBR a prestigious World Heritage site, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples have lived alongside the reef for thousands of generations, thereby developing a strong and meaningful connection over time [1]. Approximately 70 Traditional Owner groups currently practice cultural traditions connecting with plants, animals and the environment, thus making nature inseparable from cultural identity [2].  The Great Barrier Reef Strategic Assessment Report states “The Australian Government has committed to protect and encourage customary use of biological resources in regards to traditional cultural practices” [2 (p1-3)]. However, serious degradation, as a result of climate change, is being observed and the vulnerability of the Traditional Owner groups that live off the Great Barrier Reef is increasing [2].

[1] Perrett L. Sea Country Stewards: A review of Traditional Owner aspirations for the Great Barrier Reef. Townsville: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority; 2010.
[2] Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority. Great Barrier Reef Region Strategic Assessment: Strategic assessment report. Townsville: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority; 2014.

Jasmin Petersen

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The ABC islands or Lesser Antilles comprise three islands (Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire, or Aruba, Korsou and Boneiru in the local language) in the Caribbean, off the coast of Venezuela, that share a similar history, culture and language and all three, in one way or the other, fall within the Kingdom of the Netherlands. All three islands are heavily reliant on tourism, with about 75% or more of Aruba's GNP earned through tourism and Bonaire's economy based entirely on (eco)tourism and salt production. They are relatively arid, with mean annual rainfall of 409-553 mm (van Buurt, 2006). They lie outside of Hurricane Alley.

The ABC islands have the luck of being able to rely on help from the Netherlands which gives them a greater adaptive capacity and makes them less vulnerable. However, I will list some possible exposure-sensitivities below.

Few studies have been done on the effects of climate change (especially on human communities) in the region. One possibility, however, is that the islands will start seeing exacerbated effects of hurricanes traveling just to the north in Hurricane Alley. It has been suggested that global-warming-induced changes in ocean temperatures could increase the size of the regions affected by hurricanes (Michener, Blood, Bildstein, Brinson, & Gardner, 1997). The ABC islands sometimes see the effects of hurricanes and this could see the frequency as well as intensity rise of hurricanes outside of the hurricane belt, near the islands. Hurricanes lead to flooding and inundation and extreme wind speeds which can affect Aruban locals as well as their most important form of income: hotels. Information from other Caribbean islands indicates that Category 1 storms tend to cause damage to only 5% of infrastructure, but Category 5 storms (which will become more frequent) can cause damage to as much as 75% of infrastructure and amount to costs far above an island's GDP (Moore, Harewood, & Grosvenor, 2010). Furthermore, part of the appeal of the ABC islands for tourists as that they lie outside Hurricane Alley and so being affected more frequently and harshly by hurricanes could lead to less tourists.

The Lesser Antilles has little to fear in the way of increased droughts because they depend on water desalination plants for their drinking water. However, there are other problems that could affect them besides changes in rainfall and extreme weather events.

Coral bleaching is likely to become an increasingly frequent sight for Caribbean reefs now in the future (McWilliams, Côté, Gill, Sutherland, & Watkinson, 2005). This is of particular distress for Bonaire, which relies almost entirely on its image as a "diver's paradise" for tourism. Coral bleaching and coral deaths could mean a dramatic decrease in tourism in Bonaire, but also in Aruba and Curaçao, where snorkeling and diving are also frequent tourist activities.

An indirect effect of climate change might be more illegal immigrants on the island. Many people enter the ABC islands illegally from other Latin American countries, be it from South or Central  America, looking for work. Central America is seen as a "climate change hot-spot" due to a decrease in precipitation and an increase in precipitation variability (Giorgi, 2006). This could see an increase in illegal immigrants coming to the ABC islands looking for work. The effects of this on the economy have not been investigated but could be adverse.

WORKS CITED

Giorgi, F. (2006, April). Climate change hot-spots. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(8).

McWilliams, J. P., Côté, I. M., Gill, J. A., Sutherland, W. J., & Watkinson, A. R. (2005). Accelerating impacts of temperature-induced coral bleaching in the Caribbean. Ecology, 86(8), 2055-2060.

Michener, W. K., Blood, E. R., Bildstein, K. L., Brinson, M. M., & Gardner, L. R. (1997). Climate change, hurricanes and tropical storms, and rising sea level in coastal wetlands. Ecological Applications, 7(3), 770-801.

Moore, W. R., Harewood, L., & Grosvenor, T. (2010). The Supply Side Effects of Climate Change on Tourism. University of the West Indies, Department of Economics. Bridgetown: Munich Personal RePEc Archive.

van Buurt, G. (2006). Conservation of amphibians and reptiles in Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire. Applied Herpetology, 3, 307-321.

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The Sunshine Coast is a destination known for having a high tourist ratio, and a rising resident count due to its beautiful beaches and rainforest and woodland ecosystems, mild, subtropical weather and leisurely environment (Sunshine Coast Council 2017; McAllister et al. 2014). Tourism and Events Queensland [TEQ] (2013) and McAllister et al. (2014) identified that this destination is Australia’s fastest growing metropolitan region and is rated as one of the top 10 tourism destinations in the world, making the tourism industry its most at risk industry. A region that receives almost three million international and domestic visitors yearly, it is highly susceptible to climate risks (TEQ 2013). Burton (2014) and National Climate Change Adaption Research Facility [NCCARF] (2009) identify some stressors that have been notably associated with coastal Australian regions as a direct result of climate change, including heatwaves, recurring flooding, bushfires, coastal erosion from rising sea levels which can cause an abundance of health risks such as physical injury, an increase in infectious diseases and mental and physical health issues as a consequence of social and economic disruption. This ultimately means that the wet season from November to March has become more intense over the years, as demonstrated through the Queensland 2010/11 flood crisis and the less frequent but more intense cyclones arising, which ultimately impacts the desirability of the destination to tourists and decreases travel appeal (Australian Government 2013; TEQ 2013).

As a result of global warming the Australian Government and South East Queensland Regional Governments have put in place policies and plans to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change (NCCARF 2009). These include a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and manage systems and resilience to impacts (NCCARF 2009; McAllister et al. 2014). They have addressed issues of peak energy, biodiversity conservation and urban water security and flooding (McAllister et al. 2014).

References
Sunshine Coast Council 2017, Sunshine Coast Climate Change and Peak Oil Strategy, viewed 5 August 2017, https://www.sunshinecoast.qld.gov.au/Council/Planning-and-Projects/Council-Strategies/Sunshine-Coast-Climate-Change-and-Peak-Oil-Strategy
Tourism and Events Queensland (TEQ) 2013, Sunshine Coast Social Indicators 2013, viewed 6 August 2017, http://teq.queensland.com/~/media/3810CE6B052248C985921FDCCF409970.ashx
Burton, P 2014, Responding to Climate Change: Lessons from an Australian Hotspot, CSIRO Publishing, Victoria, Australia.
Australian Government 2013, Australian Weather and Seasons – A Variety of Climates, viewed 6 August 2017, http://www.australia.gov.au/about-australia/australian-story/austn-weather-and-the-seasons
McAllister, R, Smith, T, Lovelock, C, Choy, D, Ash, D & McDonald, J 2014, ‘Adapting to climate change in South East Queensland, Australia’, Regional Environmental Change, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 429-433.
National Climate Change Adaption Research Facility (NCCARF) 2009, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan Human Health, Griffith University, Gold Coast.

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Th Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is the world's largest coral reef and stretches along the coast of northeastern Queensland. I have never visited however, I would like it to still be magnificent when I do get the chance. Climate change has increased the intensity of natural stressors such as tropical cyclones, coral predation of crown-of-thorns starfish, and coral bleaching caused by water temperature increases (De'ath et al., 2012).

Local stressors such as agricultural polluting, degradation of coastal rivers and wetlands, and dredging are exposing the reef to longer regeneration times which are leaving it more vulnerable to the next natural stressor. These local stressors are also effecting the sustainability of local fishing and tourism industries, landholders, and other local business. The reef holds great scientific interest consisting of 400 types of coral, 1,500 species of fish and 4,000 types of mollusc including being the habitat of threatened species such as the dugong and the large green turtle (UNESCO, 2017). The social implications will be weighted differently to each person in that area or who have ever been there. Also, if the reef becomes damaged beyond repair what kind of exposure and implications will this have on the Australian government?

De'ath, G., Fabricius, K.E., Sweatman, H., and Puotinen, M. 2012. 'The 27-year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes'. PNAS. vol.109, no.44.

UNESCO, 2017. 'Great Barrier Reef'. whc.unesco.org/en/list/154.

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The MDB covers over five states of Australia; Queensland, New South Wales, ACT, Victoria and South Australia including four of Australia's largest rivers and covering 14% of Australia's land mass (MDBA, 2016). The MDB is also responsible for providing over 96% of Australia's Rice, Cotton and Orange farming with a majority of Australia's farming industry reliant on this basin for water.
With rainfall being on the decline since 1997 drought has been a major concern for these areas and only exacerbated by the increase in temperatures over the past 20 years (Pittock, 2011). With Climate change being the main contributing factors in the increase in global temperatures affecting major catchment areas such as the MDB. Not only have the water levels dropped significantly the MDB is highly susceptible to loss in biodiversity in the region.

The 2011 Basin plan has been implemented to help conserve the area, however has been reviewed to primarily focus on implementing environmental flows rather than restoration techniques. The need for highly regulated infrastructure that can allow the basin some form of resilience to climate change impacts is empirical to the long term sustainability of the MDB.

- https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/pubs/MDBA-at-a-glance.pdf

Maggie.

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South East Queensland (SEQ) consists of the Gold Coast, Brisbane, Sunshine Coast and west to Toowoomba, with the highest levels of urban development occurring along the coastal areas from the Gold Coast to the Sunshine Coast (Choy et al., 2010). As a highly developed coastal region, the predicted sea level rise of 1.1 meters renders these areas as highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and poses a significant risk to homes, road and rail infrastructure and commercial businesses (DEE). Sea level rises could see Brisbane suburbs of Brighton, Nudgee Beach, Sandgate, Manly and Brisbane Airport partially under water by 2050 (Climate Council of Australia, 2017).

Toowoomba, 130 kilometers inland from Brisbane and at the top of the Great Dividing Range, experienced vulnerability of exposure to extreme weather events when a freak extreme storm struck in 2011, coined an ‘inland tsunami’, which caused wild water rapids through the city that swept away cars and people and blazed a trail of destruction Range through to the Lockyer Valley, some 30 kilometers away, resulting in 24 deaths (The Chronicle, 2016).

It is anticipated that SEQ will experience an increase in temperature between 0.5oC and 1.5oC with an increased number of hotter days, an increase in dry days a decrease in wet days and more flooding from extreme rainfall events and storm surges due to the combination of sea level rise, more intense cyclones and tide events (Choy et al., 2010).

Choy, D.L., et al. “Climate change vulnerability in South East Queensland: a spatial and sectoral assessment.” A report for the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative. (2010).

Department of the Environment and Energy (DEE) 2016 - https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/climate-science/impacts/qld

Climate Council of Australia. Cranking up the intensity: Climate change and extreme weather events 2017 - http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/1b331044fb03fd0997c4a4946705606b.pdf

The Chronicle. (2016). Five years since deadly tsunami devastated region. Retrieved from

https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/five-years-deadly-tsunami-devastated-region/2893262/

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Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a developing country which lies north of Australia with lots of outer islands. The country has 2 seasons throughout the year (wet and dry) and is vulnerable to tropical cyclones and high sea level. Due to climate change, a lot of smaller islands are going below the sea. A good example is the Carteret Islands in Bougainville Province (PNG).

Like many other atolls throughout the Pacific Ocean, this islands are very low-lying and are slowly being covered in water. Palms and trees that become exposed in storms are dying by losing their grip in the little sand left at the end of the storm season. People try to move to the main land of Bougainville, but the people from the main land can`t accept them there so they move back to the islands. Much of the food is grown away from the inhabited island. It is often very vulnerable to salt-water inundation. So Tourism and agriculture are some of the areas that will be impacted.

www.telegraph.co.uk › News › Earth › Carteret Islands

Kiri Ora

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Miami is one of the top spots in the United States that tourists go to vacation. Most of the infrastructure  is built along the ocean. Miami is extremely vulnerable to climate change, specifically to rising sea levels.
One of the many problems that Miami will face will be the lack of freshwater resources. Studies suggest that a conservative 0.6 meters increase in sea level will convert freshwater resources into salty water (Guha, & Panday, 2012). However, a more realistic sea level rise of 1.5 meters by 2100 would flood 91% of the land surface in the Florida region and affect 71% of the population. This would displace millions of people who live on Florida’s coast (Kegi, Dittmar, Ross, & Bergh, 2011). This would also hurt all aspects of Florida including economic, social, and political sectors. It would raise many questions such as “where would people go?” (Bloetscher, Heimlich, Meeroff, 2011).  Personally, I have seen how rising sea levels is starting to take effect. In one area, I saw that a few homes were left abandoned due to rising sea levels.

References
Bloetscher, F., Heimlich, B., & Meeroff, D. E. (2011). Development of an adaptation toolbox to protect southeast Florida water supplies from climate change. Environmental Reviews, 19397-417. doi:10.1139/A11-011

Guha, H., & Panday, S. (2012). Impact of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Salinity in a Coastal Community of South Florida1. Journal Of The American Water Resources Association, 48(3), 510-529. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00630.x

Keqi, Z., Dittmar, J., Ross, M., & Bergh, C. (2011). Assessment of sea level rise impacts on human population and real property in the Florida Keys. Climatic Change, 107(1/2), 129-146. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0080-2

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Climate Change in the Top End of Australia - Eric Lede

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Climate Change in the Top End of Australia - Eric Lede

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This following discussion describes the vulnerability of the Top End of Australia (Northern Territory) by employing the terms ‘vulnerability’, ‘exposure’, ‘sensitivity’ and ‘adaptive capacity’ consistent with Smit and Wandel (2006).

The Top End of Australia is characterised by a tropic climate with two seasons. For half of the year, rain is scarce, humidity is low, and temperatures average 25 degrees during the day. In this time, the Top End is characterised by few weather perturbations and has a low exposure and sensitivity to changes in the climate. However, for the other half of the year, the monsoons travel from Asia and provide the Top End with an abundance of rain. Concurrently, humidity severely increases, as does the temperature. Increased rain causes river flooding, which cuts off smaller communities from the regional centre, Darwin. For many months of the year, numerous communities throughout the Top End are only accessible by aircraft. In the wet season, tropical cyclones also frequent the Top End with wind speeds that can exceed 200km/h, which further increases seasonal exposure and sensitivity by straining both the human environment, as well as the natural environment (Hennessy et al. 2004). The exposure-sensitivities increase during this time of year, while adaptive capacity decreases as the resources of governments on federal, territorial, and local levels become strained, which increases the difficulty to implement effective adaptive responses.

Consistent with trends across Australia, climate change is expected to compound the Top End’s existing vulnerabilities (Hennessy et al. 2004; Hughes 2003). For example, while there has been a decrease in cyclone frequency in the Top End since 1967, there has been a significant increase in average cyclone intensities (i.e. maximum wind speeds) (Hennessy et al. 2004). Rain intensity and onset is also expected to increase, which will cause more severe flooding of rivers that will damage infrastructure. Indeed, from 1900-2002, the Top End average rainfall rose 14.2 mm per decade during the wet season, and 2.5 mm per decade during the dry season (Hennessy et al. 2004). Conversely, there is expected to be increased periods of dry spells, which is expected to strain the agricultural sector. The agricultural sector is already characterised by a high vulnerability. The agricultural sector is highly exposed and sensitive to climate change due to the intrinsic relationship with the climate. The agricultural sector is also characterised by a low adaptive capacity, as adaptive capacity in the agricultural sector in the Top End is highly reliant on financial capacity; a factor that few farmers maintain (Gunasekera 2007).

Smit, Barry, and Johanna Wandel. "Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability." Global environmental change 16.3 (2006): 282-292.

Hennessy, K., et al. "Climate change in the Northern Territory." Consultancy report for the Northern Territory Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Environment 64 (2004).

Gunasekera, Don, et al. "Climate change-impacts on Australian agriculture." Australian Commodities: Forecasts and Issues 14.4 (2007): 657.

Hughes, Lesley. "Climate change and Australia: trends, projections and impacts." Austral Ecology 28.4 (2003): 423-443.

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Stockholm consists of 14 islands and is the most populated city of the Nordic countries with cold winters and cool summers. It is predicted to get longer and warmer summers which may seem nice in this cool city but our infrastructure is not built for it. Houses have heating but air-conditioning is uncommon which  will result in more heat-related illnesses (Stockholm county administrative board, 2012).

There will be an increase in precipitation and as mentioned Stockholm consists of islands so the risk of flooding is alarming. There are already plans in the making about a more effective drainage system as the current one will not be able to handle more rain (Joakim Pramsten, 2015).

Stockholm country administrative board, 2012.
http://www.lansstyrelsen.se/stockholm/SiteCollectionDocuments/Sv/publikationer/2012/halsoeffekter-av-ett-forandrat-klimat.pdf

Joakim Pramsten, Stockholm Water, 2015.
http://miljobarometern.stockholm.se/content/docs/tema/klimat/skyfall/skyfallsmodellering/Skyfallsmodellering-Huvudrapport-SVAB-inkl-bilagor.pdf
(Both resources are in Swedish)

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My home town of Darwin is characterised by high humidity and a dry and wet season. Situated on the coast, it is prone to tropical cyclones and sea level rise. It is anticipated that cyclone intensity will increase and sea levels continue to rise in the coming years as a result of climate change (DEE). This coupled with the possibility of more intense wet seasons in the future makes Darwin vulnerable to flooding and significant infrastructure damage although this will be mitigated to an extent by the existence of cyclone grade buildings. The average temperature of Darwin is also predicted to increase which will pose serious health risks to residents in terms of heat stress as well as diseases spread via insects and water (DEE). Tourism and agriculture are both going to be negatively impacted by climate change. Increased temperatures will result in more heat-related death in cattle stock as well as water scarcity and increased water salinity on stations which rely on ground water (DEE). This will only be exacerbated further by a more intense dry season. Water salinity is currently impacting Kakadu National park, a major tourist draw for the Northern Territory, and is expected to further endanger the delicate ecosystem as sea levels rise and encroach on groundwater tables (McGregor et al. 2010).

Department of the Environment and Energy (DEE) 2016 - https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/climate-science/impacts/nt

McGregor, S., Lawson, V., Christophersen, P., Kennett, R., Boyden, J., Bayliss, P., Liedloff, A., McKaige, B. & Andersen, A.N. 2010, ‘Indigenous wetland burning: conserving natural and cultural resources in Australia’s World Heritage-listed Kakadu National Park’, Hum Ecology, vol. 38, no. 6, pp. 721-729.