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Unemployment rate has been in an 18-year low. The unemployment rate has dropped beneath the four percent for the first time in nearly two decades.

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ECON IS AWESOME

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The last time unemployment fell below the threshold was in the year 2000- below four percent. Nine years later, we were at a sustained rate, if less feverish, economic recovery. That has been achieved again. This relates to out class because it shows how much of a success we have made with our economy and how we can bounce back from problems at most times.

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The last time the unemployment rate fell below the 4 percent threshold was in 2000, during a period of frenetic activity remembered as the dot-com boom.

Nine years into a sustained, if less feverish, economic recovery, that milestone has been achieved again.

The Labor Department said Friday that the jobless rate in April fell to 3.9 percent, raising anew the question of just how tight the labor market can get, and for how long.

In the past half-century, only the late 1960s brought an extended period when the rate stayed below 4 percent.

"We've continued to add jobs routinely every month for so long, and the unemployment rate we have reached is amazing," said Catherine Barrera, chief economist of the online job site ZipRecruiter.

President Trump crowed about the landmark on Friday, tweeting, "4% is Broken!"

The steady-as-she-goes economy has produced a record 91 straight months of job growth. That may represent a healthier foundation than the dot-com era, when pride - or, as it was branded, "irrational exuberance" - went before a fall.

But the banner number announced Friday did not resolve any of the broader questions that economists have about this unparalleled run.

The most prominent is a mystery that has proved impervious to easy explanation: why wage increases haven't been more robust, when the market continues to edge toward full employment.

Friday's report showed that hourly earnings went up by 2.6 percent over the past year, not much faster than inflation. The subdued wage gains eased the prospect that the Federal Reserve would accelerate its plans to raise interest rates, helping to send stocks higher. But lagging pay also reflects how the economy of 2018 is fundamentally different from earlier eras.

"A 3.9 percent rate today doesn't suggest as tight a labor market as 3.9 percent in 2000 or 3.9 percent in the late 1960s," said Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's chief United States economist.

A lot has changed since the turn of the century. The share of working-age women in the labor force began to fall in 2000, after increasing for decades. Men have been dropping out for much longer. The upshot is that a smaller share of people are participating in the labor market, and it's easier to get low levels of unemployment when fewer people are vying for jobs.

In fact, a shrinking labor force in April is part of why the unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent from 4.1 percent even as payrolls grew by a fairly routine 164,000 jobs.

The population is also older than they used to be, on balance. The baby-boom generation has moved steadily toward retirement over the last two decades. And those still working have not helped push wages up. Generally, workers climb the economic ladder fastest when they are young, and so an older work force may weigh on average wages, economists say.

In 2000, wages for rank-and-file workers rose at an annual rate of around 4 percent. Part of the problem now is that some 60 percent of the jobs added since 2010 have been in low-wage, service-sector jobs, according to Morgan Stanley.

Fifty years ago, there were plenty of factory jobs paying a decent wage, and unions held much greater sway. Manufacturing accounted for one in four jobs; today it's not even one in 10.

The tech explosion of the late 1990s gave rise to lucrative roles in companies based on new business models. The share of the economic pie going to workers rose steadily for the first time since the 1970s - a feat not repeated since.

"No one is creating an e-commerce group out of nothing anymore," said Tom Gimbel, chief executive of LaSalle Network, a Chicago staffing firm. Instead, companies are bulking up their warehouses to compete with Amazon, slotting in tens of thousands of relatively low-paid pickers, packers and stockers over the past several years.

Mr. Gimbel said he had seen a particular hunger for new bodies in call centers, which offer candidates the minimum wage to deal with consumers' complaints about the gadgets they ordered online.

More recently, Mr. Trump's flirtation with a trade war has thrust uncertainty into the economic picture. The White House has provided little clarity about whether its newly imposed steel and aluminum tariffs will extend to allies like Mexico, Canada and the European Union, and it seems no closer to smoothing over economic tensions with China.

Economists say it is too soon to tell how employers may change their hiring or expansion plans in response to the tariffs on Chinese goods, or to Beijing's retaliation. But there are signs that companies that buy metals are feeling the effects already. The Institute for Supply Management said this week that manufacturing activity grew in April at its slowest pace since July.

Uncertainty over the price of raw materials could prompt factories to cut back from their recent hiring spree. Manufacturers added 73,000 jobs in the first quarter, much more than in the same period last year.

"A faster pace of wage growth would be great for households, but in a way that would create even more difficulty for policymakers," Ms. Zentner said. An acceleration could force Fed officials to raise rates more aggressively, which would raise the cost of car loans and credit card debt.

However mixed the blessing, Ms. Zentner said, the ever-tightening job market could soon force faster growth in paychecks. "We are getting closer and closer to that flash point, but we don't know exactly when it is going to happen," she said.

A wave of bigger raises has already reached Chandler Steffy's roofing company in Clive, Iowa.

Three years ago, Mr. Steffy could pay laborers less than $15 an hour. No longer. In March, the latest month measured at the state level, the jobless rate in Iowa was 2.8 percent, one of the nation's lowest. Mr. Steffy now pays roofers $25 an hour, including benefits.

His rate for subcontractors has been spiking. It went up 7 percent in March, and will rise another 7 percent in May. There will be bumps in June and August, too. It's all Mr. Steffy can do to keep himself in the game.

"There's a price war going on for labor," he said. He has had crews leave job sites before finishing a roof because they got a better offer from another contractor. "The next 18 months are going to be crazy," he said.

Ben Casselman contributed reporting.

A version of this article appears in print on , on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Jobless Rate Dips To Lowest Level Since 2000 Boom. Order Reprints | Today's Paper | Subscribe

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Jobless Rate Looks Like Old Times, but the Economy Doesn't

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The last time the unemployment rate fell below the 4 percent threshold was in 2000, during a period of frenetic activity remembered as the dot-com boom. Nine years into a sustained, if less feverish, economic recovery, that milestone has been achieved again.

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May, the month were many Americans are rewarded with college degrees- and punished with student debt. The average debt for a bachelor's degree for every American that leaves campus is $28,400.

Australia, where student loan's are at a default is rare, is a winner of the mini-tournament. Australia focuses on educating the person and not stressing them out with heavy loans.

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Readers point to a simpler way to pay back loans and avoid 'soul-crushing debt.'

This is the month when many Americans are rewarded with college degrees - and punished with student debt. The average American borrower with a bachelor's degree leaves campus owing $28,400.

This number is not unusual in other advanced nations, but the bigger problem can be the student repayment system.

In an article last month on which countries handled student loans best, our judging panel concluded "that the best student loan repayment system is one that is simple, that is based on students' incomes, that spreads loan payments over longer periods and that's able to collect paymentsautomatically through the tax system."

Australia, where student loan default is rare, was the clear winner of our mini-tournament. (The U.S., where loan default is not rare, failed to get past Sweden.)

We asked readers to weigh in, and many Australiansexpressed gratitude for their system and offered sympathy to their American counterparts. (Responses were edited for length.)

Take a Look at Our Tournament

Why Australia was the winner

The View From Australia
'Cheaper and Simpler'
As an Australian, it has always confused me how complicated and brutal other countries' loan repayment systems are. Here, the majority of people don't even realize they're paying off their student loan until their tax becomes a little lighter. I even know of a couple of American students who have moved to Australia for study because even as international students, it's cheaper and simpler. - Jethro, Melbourne, Australia
Rich vs. Poor
As an Australian familiar with the U.S. system, it is astounding to me that, just like U.S. health care, the entire uber-capitalist system is set up to benefit the rich at the expense of the poor. Surely you want to promote access to education in the U.S.? It is a tragedy when anyone with the ability, drive and desire to access education is prevented from doing so for purely financial reasons. Everyone benefits from an educated population. - Andrew, Australia

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The campus of Sydney University. Student loan defaults are rare in Australia. Credit David Maurice Smith for The New York Times

'Cost Simply Wasn't a Factor'
I finished high school in Melbourne about three years ago. It was not an elite high school, and some would argue that my school is on the lower end of the socioeconomic scale. Despite this, there was not one student in my graduating class who considered university out of reach for themselves. The cost simply wasn't a factor because we knew that once we got jobs after university, we'd progressively pay off our debt to the government.

The collection of our loan payments through taxes is a literal godsend. My 29-year-old sister found out this year that she'd actually fully paid off her debt, a debt she'd acquired from the country's top university, without realizing it. Compare her experience to the lives of soul-crushing debt which most Americans face today. I know which life I'd choose.- Fin, Melbourne, Australia

The View From America
There was very little defense of the U.S. system from Americans. The system's complexity can lead to 'Quasi-Horrible Agencies' many problems. 'Threatens the Future of the U.S.'
The cost of student loan debt, repayment and default, when spread over the economy as a whole, is one of the main stumbling blocks toward economic prosperity (if not THE main stumbling block). On a personal level, my friends and I marvel each month at the amounts we are paying; "if only we were spending this money on [insert name of slow-growth sector of the economy]!"
'Makes Me Nauseous' to Write This
Something touched upon in the article is the fact that repayment in the United States is not through the tax system. Instead, it occurs through quasi-private, quasi-governmental (read: quasi-horrible) agencies.- Bo Shoemaker, Rochester

The college debt situation threatens the future of the U.S. The best and brightest may not be able to take on debts, or may be forced to choose careers for which they are overqualified. Meanwhile, Europe is investing in its best and brightest. Even undocumented immigrants who meet the qualifications for university entrance do not pay tuition. For the long term, I'm putting my bets on Europe to produce the most effective young work force. - Eddie, anywhere
In Germany, 'Everyone Appreciates the Federal Support'
The interest rate charged on student loans in the U.S. is beyond ridiculous. My average interest rate for all my loans is 7.2 percent; of the $80,000 I've paid back since I graduated six years ago, $50,000 has gone toward interest. It makes me nauseous just to type it out. - J oseph, Brooklyn

The View From Elsewhere

I am attending a German university. Most universities and colleges are public ones and are considered to be the best. There are no fees for higher education; instead, the German federal state offers loans for living costs.

No student that I know here is therefore in high debt and everyone appreciates the federalsupport for higher education ( called Bafög). No German actually understands why American or English colleges are so expensive (also the reason very few German students go abroad for their entire studies). - Melissa, Munich

In Ireland, the 'American situation looks insane'
In Ireland, student debt is very rare. Undergraduate tuition is under $4,000 a year and subsidized for those who need it, who may also qualify for a stipend.

From Europe, the American situation looks insane, although the top American universities certainly have perks, including libraries that look like five-star hotels, not available elsewhere. - Kate, Dublin

Australia: Even Better Than It Looks?
Australia's system is Missing a Basic Point far from perfect Independence From Debt , and it has had to adjust recently after concerns over a cost blowout. But many Australian commenters said our panelists actually undersold the Australian system.
The "experts" missed a basic point about the Australian system. They complain that Australian students can't borrow money for living expenses. But Australian students can receive a "youth allowance" to heavily subsidize their living costs. The Australian system is better than they even expected. - Maria, Canberra, Australia

Furthermore, every student deemed independent by either being over 22, not being able to live at home or in a relationship can also access government funding, which is enough to cover living expenses. This is not a loan and does not have to be repaid. - Aaron Coates, Perth, Australia

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Why Australian College Graduates Feel Sorry for Their American Counterparts

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Readers point to a simpler way to pay back loans and avoid 'soul-crushing debt.' This is the month when many Americans are rewarded with college degrees - and punished with student debt. The average American borrower with a bachelor's degree leaves campus owing $28,400.

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President Trump states as a candidate that he would increase the Unites States economic growth by four percent annually. By the time he reached the White House, he dropped the annual to three percent. The Federal Reserve has started to raise a short-term interest rates to reflect the economy's recovery. This reflects back to our class because we are learning about business and the regulation of money

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As a candidate, President Trump said he would increase United States economic growth to 4 percent annually - and in one debate even added, "I think you can go to 5 percent or 6 percent."

Once he was in the White House, his administration revised those projections lower, saying its approach "means sustained 3 percent economic growth."

After the economy grew by 2.3 percent in 2017, investors in some of the world's largest markets are betting that the United States will continue to fall short of the White House goal.

The Federal Reserve has started raising short-term interest rates to reflect the economy's recovery, but longer-term rates - over which the Fed traditionally has far less influence - have not moved nearly as much. To many in the bond markets, that suggests investors think little has changed about long-term growth prospects.

"They're not expecting growth to move up to 3 percent on a sustained basis," said Julia Coronado, president of Macropolicy Perspectives, an economic consulting firm. "They're not looking for inflation to break out in any meaningful way on a sustained basis. It's not ominous. But it does sort of confirm that investors are still seeing the world in that way."

That does not mean the United States is about to enter a recession. By most measures, the economy is in fairly good shape as the current expansion - the second-longest on record - stretches into its ninth year. At 3.9 percent, unemployment hasn't been this low since 2000. Corporate profits are strong. Manufacturing activity has picked up.

But with rates in Fed-sensitive short-term government bond markets rising while longer-term rates are relatively flat, the gap between them has narrowed. And the plotting of those data points, known as the yield curve, occupies an outsize space in the minds of those who consider the markets a crucial barometer of economic health.

The gap between short-term and long-term rates tends to shrink - a phenomenon known as flattening - whenever the Federal Reserve begins lifting interest rates, which the Fed started doing in December 2015. Over the last year, the gap between interest rates on 10-year and two-year Treasuries flattened from more than 1 percentage point to less than half a percentage point, its lowest point in more than a decade.

But as the yield curve flattens, long-term interest rates run the risk of falling below short-term rates, a phenomenon known as an inverted yield curve. And when the yield curve inverts, as it did most recently in 2006-7, it amounts to an economic warning from the financial markets to watch out: recession is on the way.

"We're not there yet, but we're getting progressively closer," said Steven Abrahams, head of investment strategy at the broker dealer Amherst Pierpont. "And I think we will get closer, faster than the market currently anticipates."

In a speech last month, the San Francisco Federal Reserve president, John Williams, described an inverted yield curve as "a powerful signal of recessions."

In part, that's because the yield curve is more than just an economic indicator. It actually helps determine decisions that are crucial to the health of the American economy. That's because a flattening yield curve makes banking - basically the business of borrowing money at low short-term rates, and lending it at higher long-term rates - less profitable. If the yield curve inverts, it effectively slams the doors on lending. And because debt is the fuel that drives the economy's engine, a recession often follows.

Mr. Williams stressed that he does not see an inverted yield curve, or recession, coming any time soon. And most economists agree. Over the next few years, private forecasters see United States economic growth peaking at 2.8 percent in 2018 before slowing to 2.5 percent in 2019 and 1.9 percent in 2020, according to Bloomberg data. That's a bit faster than the 2.2 percent growth rate of the United States economy since 2012.

But it's basically the same as the 2.6 percent average growth rate since 1980, suggesting that the $1.5 trillion tax overhaul signed into law by Mr. Trump in December is expected to have a negligible effect on long-term economic growth. Doing better would depend on increasing the supply of workers and raising productivity, a poorly understood process generally thought to depend on making large-scale investments in things like education, infrastructure and expensive equipment for companies.

Not everyone agrees that the bond market is sending a warning sign. For much of the last decade, the Federal Reserve and other central banks have been buying government bonds with the aim of pushing interest rates lower to support economic growth.

So the relatively low long-term rates partly reflect the large bond holdings of central banks, said Matthew Luzzetti, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank. That means those low rates contain "much less of a signal about negative growth in the future," Mr. Luzzetti said.

But some view the flattening of the yield as a sign that the economy is weaker than it might appear.

Hoisington Investment Management, a bond investment firm based in Austin, Tex., has long held the view that long-term interest rates will go lower. Its chief economist, Lacy Hunt, ticked off a list of current trouble spots: slowing auto sales, skimpy inflation-adjusted wage growth, low savings rates and sluggish construction.

"There are signs out there, they don't receive much attention," said Mr. Hunt, whose firm manages more than $4 billion for insurance companies, nonprofit organizations and pension plans. "But the flattening of the yield curve is an indication that there is a body of people that do think the future outlook is not nearly as good as the current conditions."

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Bond Market Indicates Doubt About Trump's Economic Targets

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As a candidate, President Trump said he would increase United States economic growth to 4 percent annually - and in one debate even added, "I think you can go to 5 percent or 6 percent." Once he was in the White House, his administration revised those projections lower, saying its approach "means sustained 3 percent economic growth."

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There was a recent proposal from the Resolution Foundation that can reduce inequality amount the economy between the young and old. The proposal was, " Should Millennials get $13,500 when they turn 25." Most people suggest yes. They are hoping that with this plan, they can reduce economic challenges.

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Should young people in the United Kingdom be given £10,000 ($13,500) when they turn 25? A top think tank says yes.

The proposal from the Resolution Foundation is one of a number of suggestions for reducing inequality between the young and old.

British Millennials and their peers in other developed countries have fallen behind older generations when it comes to wealth, income and home ownership, a trend that politicians have been slow to address in the wake of the global financial crisis.

"We need not just some tinkering, but some big and dramatic solutions," said Matt Whittaker, deputy director at the Resolution Foundation.

The £10,000 payment would come with strings attached: Young people would only be allowed to spend it on developing new skills, entrepreneurship, housing or pensions. The payments would cost an estimated £7 billion ($9.5 billion) per year and would be financed by an overhaul of the inheritance tax system.

The researchers suggested dozens of other changes to improve UK housing, education, health care and the employment market in a bid to give young people a boost. They would control rent levels, improve apprenticeship programs and dramatically lower taxes on home purchases.

"We built it as a package. The idea is that doing one of these without the other would be good, but not as good," said Whittaker.

Brits born during the 1980s and 1990s have faced tough economic challenges since the Great Recession, including an unusual slowdown in wage growth and higher housing costs.

Resolution Foundation research shows that Brits have typically earned more than generations that came before. But the trend stopped with Millennials, who are earning less than Generation X - those born between 1966 and 1980.

"This stalling of generational pay progress is unprecedented," the researchers said.

Britain's vote to leave the European Union, which caused inflation to spike, won't help matters. The Resolution Foundation said that when inflation is taken into account, it will take nearly two decades for pay to return to its peak from before the recession.

Related: Kate and William can afford 3 kids. Many Brits cannot

But would the changes, including the extra £10,000, be enough?

Kay Neufeld, an economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, said the payment would be "a massive leg up."

"I think it would change a lot for a lot of people," he said, adding that it could make home ownership feel within reach, or encourage someone to go to college.

A spokesperson for the government said it welcomed the report from the Resolution Foundation, and described the gap between generations as "one of the key challenges of our time." The spokesperson declined to say whether proposals in the report would be considered.

Tom Selby, an analyst at stockbroker AJ Bell, said that politicians wouldn't be attracted to the suggestions because they might hurt seniors.

"Many of the ideas aren't new and face the same barrier as other reforms -- namely the reality of politics," he said.

Fix the economy first

Still, the policy suggestions would not address other structural problems in the UK economy, including slow productivity.

"If we could fix the productivity problem then it would make a lot of the problems that we highlight easier to deal with," said Whittaker.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, said the ultimate goal should be a more productive economy.

"The future lies in stronger growth and making sure that young workers are equipped to be more productive, and hopefully earnings will rise," she said.

CNNMoney (London) First published May 8, 2018: 10:17 AM ET

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Should Millennials get $13,500 to close the generation gap?

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The proposal from the Resolution Foundation is one of a number of suggestions for reducing inequality between the young and old. British Millennials and their peers in other developed countries have fallen behind older generations when it comes to wealth, income and home ownership, a trend that politicians have been slow to address in the wake of the global financial crisis.

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Dave Ramsey: Help them help themselves

In this letter Dave Ramsey wrote to a kid about his family's debt, he talked about how he could save money, work hard, and be safe with his money. This kid's father was asking to borrow money in order to pay off the foreclosure of his house, and was manipulating his son to do so. So Dave told him to stop letting that happen and to worry about hos own money and let his dad worry about his.

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The economic recovery is coming up on its ninth birthday. Unemployment has steadily fallen down to 3.9 percent in April. However, hardly anyone in the state of Illinois is getting pay raise. With the state in debt, IL is having a hard time raising wages for hard working people. This relates to econ because it talks about money and people working to get that money.

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Chicago Federation says it can't support Rauner's budget. Rauner's budget proposal is precariously balanced and doesn't do enough to pay down that state's remaining pile of bills. Chicago states that his plan might not come to fruition that rely on aggressive assumptions.

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King Salman of Saudi Arabia orders protection from his employees that reported financial and corporate production. He has done this as a anti-corruption drive for the country. This relates to econ because it shows that the people can have some control over their financial status with some gov't interaction. They are fighting for their protection of rights within their financial status.

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Saudi Arabia's King Salman has ordered protection for financial and corporate whistleblowers as part of an anti-corruption drive in the country.

Saudi-run broadcaster Al Arabiya reported Sunday that the king's decree will shield employees from a "violation of their privileges or rights."

Dr Khalid Al Muhaisen, head of Saudi Arabia's anti-corruption commission, told Al Arabiya that the kingdom wants to "protect the interests of citizens and residents who do their duty to report cases of corruption, and ensure that they are not harmed by the submission of communications".

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, King Salman's eldest son by his third wife, has pushed an anti-corruption campaign since last year when members of Saudi Arabia's business and political elite were rounded up and detained at the Ritz in November.

The luxury hotel in Riyadh was used to house and question over 300 princes, ministers and businessmen, including global investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal.

According to Reuters, the purge generated more than $100 billion in financial settlements for the Saudi government.

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Saudi King orders protection for whistleblowers reporting financial corruption

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Saudi Arabia's King Salman has ordered protection for financial and corporate whistleblowers as part of an anti-corruption drive in the country. Saudi-run broadcaster Al Arabiya reported Sunday that the king's decree will shield employees from a "violation of their privileges or rights."

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In this article Nonfarm Payrolls, jobs have increased ore than ever in April than that of the year 2000. The unemployment rate fell 3.9% and nonfarm payrolls rose by 164,000. This reates to the class because it shows how strong the employment in the economy has grown to push us to success.

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"The expectations were a little bit elevated going into this probably just because last month's report was a little bit weaker," said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management. "Net-net this was a little bit softer than people were expecting. This goes into a lot of the other data that we've been seeing, ... a little bit of a soft patch."

The closely watched average hourly earnings number rose by 4 cents, equating to a 2.6 percent annualized gain, a bit off the pace from the previous month and a shade less than expected. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.1 hours.

A more encompassing measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons fell to 7.8 percent, the lowest since July 2001. Unemployment for blacks fell to a fresh record-low of 6.6 percent, down 0.3 percent.

The drop in the unemployment rate came amid another decline in the labor force participation rate to 62.8 percent, the lowest since January. The number of people counted as out of the labor force swelled by 410,000 to 95.74 million.

Professional and business services created the most new jobs, with 54,000, while manufacturing and health care added 24,000 apiece. Mining saw 8,000 new jobs, bringing to 86,000 the total unemployment growth since October 2016 for a sector that President Donald Trump promised to target when he campaigned.

Services jobs overall led the way, with 119,000 new positions. Leisure and hospitality increased by 18,000.

In addition to the upward revision for March, February's number edged lower from 326,000 to 324,000.

The lack of wage pressure likely will be the one takeaway for Federal Reserve officials. Central bankers are on a pace to continue raising rates, but the lack of inflation could augur for a more patient pace than some in the market anticipate.

"It really defies the law of supply and demand," Amy Glaser, senior vice president at Adecco Staffing, said of the muted wage inflation. Employers "are seeing an increase in turnover and they're really weighing whether they need to increase wages."

Glaser thinks that pressure continues to build in the wage pipeline and could increase dramatically as the year goes on.

"As we near toward the retail peak season, as we start looking to fiscal quarter three, companies are going to be forced to make that change," she said. "I'm also seeing with clients that I'm dealing with, when they do choose to make wage increases, they're not just doing 2 or 3 percent, they're doing it with a big bang, 10 or 20 percent."

Job creation overall tended strong toward full-time positions, also an indicator that wage pressures could be building. Full-time jobs rose by 319,000 while part-time positions fell by 350,000, according to the household survey.
Get the market reaction here.

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Unemployment rate dips to 3.9% in April, lowest since 2000

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"The expectations were a little bit elevated going into this probably just because last month's report was a little bit weaker," said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management. "Net-net this was a little bit softer than people were expecting. This goes into a lot of the other data that we've been seeing, ...