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Consumer Insights and Grocery Market Share - Kantar UK - Kantar

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Kantar stories and consumer insights about British shoppers. Download the latest reports for free on British supermarkets and consumers on UK.Kantar.com.

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Sainsbury's chief executive Mike Coupe believes it will take another 18 months to two years before the 'extremely challenging' conditions in the grocery market improve.

In an interview with the Sunday Times, Coupe said: 'First, as of today, there's no sign the grocery market is going to return to volume growth and that would be a tipping point.'

'Second, there's no sign that there will be food inflation coming through in the next period, so the market dynamics are going to be extremely squeezed,' he added.

However, Coupe said he believed Sainsbury's was well placed for a market recovery: 'We have outperformed by about 1 per cent a year for the past five years and I would expect that to be the case in the future.'

Sainsbury's, which trails UK market leader Tesco and Asda - owned by US giant Wal-Mart - saw its sales fall by 1.8 per cent in the 12 weeks to December 7, according to the latest till rolls data from Kantar Worldpanel published last week. Sainsbury's market share dropped to 16.5 per cent from 16.8 per cent.

All of Britain's big four grocers saw sales fall in the latest 12 week period, while German discounters Aldi and Lidl hit a record combined market share of 8.6 per cent as shoppers continued to seek out bargains.

Tesco, which issued its fourth profit warning in five months last week, saw its sales fall 2.7 per cent in the period, while its market share slipped to 29.1 per cent from 29.9 per cent a year ago.

The only glimmer of good news from the Kantar report for the under pressure sector was that overall sales in the grocery market returned to 0.1 per cent growth in the last three months as shoppers started spending on festive goods.

After a historic first decline in last month's figures, the Kantar data provided some relief for food retailers although an ongoing price war in the sector continues to take its toll on the Big Four, as does the inexorable rise of discounters.

Shoppers have saved a combined £182million on grocery offers in the past three months amid supermarket price wars, the Kantar data showed.

Coupe told the Sunday newspaper that the sales drop a Sainsbury's was down to its focus on fresh food, which has seen the biggest price cuts as the big grocers take on the discounters.

Sainsbury's joined in the supermarket price war in November by saying it had a £150million discounting campaign planned over the coming year.

The supermarket giant revealed the move alongside its half-results which showed year underlying pre-tax profit down 6.3 per cent at £375million, although that was turned into a £290million loss by large writedowns.

Shoppers are currently being bombarded with price cuts as Sainsbury and its top rivals Asda, Tesco and Morrisons scrap among themselves and try to see off the threat from budget chains Lidl and Aldi at the same time.

Sainsbury's has also opened a new front by teaming up with budget supermarket chain Netto, which has relaunched in the UK and plans a flurry of store openings in places like Leeds, Manchester and Sheffield.

Coupe said in today's interview that trading at the discount Netto stores it has opened was positive, as was early Christmas trading at Sainsbury's.

'So far, so good,' he said.

Coupe also said he would not raise cash by selling and leasing back more of Sainsbury's stores, a move being pushed by activist investors such as Crystal Amber.

'Sale and leasebacks are just another form of debt, and very expensive debt. We're 60 per cent freehold, and we believe it would be the wrong way to fund the business' Coupe said in the Sunday Times interview.

Crystal Amber has drawn up a 60-page to-do list outlining various strategies aimed at creating more value than the plan being pursued by the retailer's board.

The Activist investor, which routinely draws up similar documents for a host of potential targets, is not thought to have built a stake in Sainsbury's and does not actually have any power. But it is keen to talk to other investors who might.

The Qatari sovereign wealth fund, which has a 26 per cent stake in the grocer, is regularly linked with 'imminent bids' by traders seeking to ramp the shares. But since the Qataris' last failed approach back in 2007 nothing has materialised.

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Sainsbury boss: Grocery market woes for another 18 months to two years

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Sainsbury's chief executive Mike Coupe believes it will take another 18 months to two years before the 'extremely challenging' conditions in the grocery market improve. In an interview with the Sunday Times, Coupe said: 'First, as of today, there's no sign the grocery market is going to return to volume growth and that would be a tipping point.'

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Torquay, Paignton, Lancaster, Brighton and Kirkcaldy could become Sainsbury's "monopoly" towns if its planned merger with Asda goes ahead, prompting MPs to demand action to protect local communities.

The proposed merger of the two supermarket chains will leave little or no major supermarket competition in the towns, opening the possibility of a local monopoly and a headache for competition authorities, which could order a sell-off but find no buyers.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is expected to carefully scrutinise Sainsbury's planned £7.3bn takeover of Asda under which the latter's US parent, Walmart, will become a major shareholder in the combined group.

MPs raised concerns that stores might close, putting local jobs at risk, or that communities might face price rises if all nearby supermarkets come under the control of one company.

"You only have to look how close the Asda and Sainsbury's are in Torquay and Paignton, said Kevin Foster, the local MP. "It does raise concerns about how long a unified company would want to operate two stores. There is also the impact this has on the ability to choose where to shop. As it stands there are only five major supermarkets in Torquay in Paignton and four of them are owned by what would be a combined company."

Kirkcaldy's MP, Lesley Laird,is concerned about price rises. "Sainsbury's and Asda already enjoy approximately 50% of supermarket custom here in Kirkcaldy and this merger is a concern given its potential to squeeze local competitors," she said.

"We've heard there will be no store closures, but that's not legally binding for the long-term and we've heard no assurances that the deal won't result in job losses, [or] changes to pay, terms and conditions."

The issue is particularly sensitive in the Scottish town, which only recently lost a Tesco store as part of widespread closures by the UK's biggest grocer.

In an investigation expected to be launched within weeks and last at least six months, the regulator is likely to examine hundreds of local areas to ensure competition is maintained. A key question will be whether only large traditional supermarkets such as Tesco and Morrisons are true competitors, or if discounters such as Aldi and Lidl or online players such as Ocado and Amazon can now provide a viable alternative in local areas.

In Brighton, where the three major supermarkets consist of two branches of Sainsbury's and an Asda, the local MP, Caroline Lucas, said the merger would further decrease choice. "It is small businesses that provide the economic backbone to Brighton and Hove, and I know many people will be worried that this merger could further entrench the power of supermarkets and put our local economy at risk. The merger also risks driving down standards and wages for farmers, and further reducing other workers' salaries. The CMA should reject this bid, and the government should urgently investigate measures to reduce the power of supermarkets," she said.

Asda and Sainsbury's also dominate in Asda. Cat Smith, the MP for Lancaster and Fleetwood, said: "If there is such a monopoly for Sainsbury's and Asda then there's limited choice and smaller players like Booths will struggle against that. That's a worry, given that Booths is a Lancashire company founded in Blackpool with a headquarters in Preston.

"I'm worried about the impact further down the supply chain, especially as so many in my constituency are in the business of producing food."

When the regulator considered the merger of Morrisons and Safeway in 2003, it divided grocery competition into three categories; one-stop supermarkets with a sales area of more than 1,400 sq metres [15,000 sq ft], mid-sized stores with an area of 1,400 to 2,800 sq metres, and local convenience stores. For the largest stores it looks for similar competitors within a 10-minute drive in urban areas or a 15-minute drive in rural communities.

If the combined business has too big a share of the market it can force the sale of stores to a restricted list of strong competitors, but with sales at many large supermarkets falling back there are concerns that strong bidders may be few and far between.

Until very recently the regulator had not considered discounters such as Aldi and Lidl, which typically stock fewer than 3,000 different products, as sufficient competition for a full-scale supermarket, which usually stocks more than 30,000 items. But in its assessment of Tesco's recent merger with Booker, the regulator hinted that it had now changed its view.

Foster said the matter should be considered carefully. "I accept the market has changed, particularly with growth of online retail, but it has not changed fundamentally,. A large number of people still go every week and do a large shop," he said.

The MPs' comments come after members of two influential parliamentary committees called on the competition regulator to examine how the merger of Sainsbury's and Asda would affect suppliers.
Topics

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Sainsbury's-Asda merger could lead to 'monopoly' towns in UK

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Torquay, Paignton, Lancaster, Brighton and Kirkcaldy could become Sainsbury's "monopoly" towns if its planned merger with Asda goes ahead, prompting MPs to demand action to protect local communities. The proposed merger of the two supermarket chains will leave little or no major supermarket competition in the towns, opening the possibility of a local monopoly and a headache for competition authorities, which could order a sell-off but find no buyers.

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Supermarkets Sainsbury's and Asda have agreed a potential merger. While plans are still in their infancy, the proposal could see the companies seize a huge 30% slice of the market. So what might that mean for consumers?

Could we see our local stores closed, or restructured? Might there be price increases because consumers will have less choice? Or will our shopping become cheaper because suppliers will have even less wiggle room when negotiating costs?

A move of this size is likely to prompt a review by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) - the body which regulates big business deals to ensure fairness - so it is still far from a done deal.

But according to one expert, the deal could eventually spell the end for Asda. Retail analyst Natalie Berg told HuffPost UK: "I imagine the Asda brand will ultimately disappear from the high street. There's no room for a retailer like Asda in today's market. If shoppers want low prices, they head to the discounters. If they want convenience, they head to Amazon."

Chris J Ratcliffe via Getty Images

What are Sainsbury's and Asda proposing?

To anyone familiar with the UK food market, it is no secret that Asda and Sainsbury's are catering to different customers, with varying price points and geographical strongholds. Asda has historically been stronger in the north of England and Sainsbury's dominant in the south.

But this merger has become more likely as a result of both brands spending the last five years fighting a common enemy: German discounters Lidl and Aldi.

Natalie Berg, retail analyst told HuffPost UK: "Aldi & Lidl's combined market share has grown by 80% while online sales of non-food products have doubled. The only retailers that can sustainably compete on price with the discounters are other discounters."

The proposed plans will create Britain's biggest supermarket chain - with more than 2800 stores (including Argos, which is owned by Sainsbury's) - surpassing current leader, Tesco .

Will the merger make my groceries more expensive?

A 2017 Which? report found Asda is still the cheapest supermarket - a reputation long been built on their price guarantee, that gave customers a voucher if their weekly shop wasn't 10% cheaper than Sainsbury's and others.

So will Sainsbury's be forced to slash prices at the tills or will Asda get more expensive? There is evidence for both. Sainsbury's bosses have said they could cut costs to customers by up to up to 10% after the merger.

While Asda boss Roger Burnley added Asda could also see price cuts, he said: "The combination of Asda and Sainsbury's into a single retailing group will be great news for Asda customers, allowing us to deliver even lower prices in store and even greater choice."

What does the future look like for both stores?

At the moment there has been no suggestion that a financial merger will see shops on the ground amalgamate into one shared space. Berg said: "This is about supermarket survival and cutting costs."

However this doesn't mean both brands will necessarily survive as separate entities either. "They may be retaining both fascias for now but I imagine the Asda brand will ultimately disappear from the high street. There's no room for a retailer like Asda in today's market. If shoppers want low prices, they head to the discounters. If they want convenience, they head to Amazon," said Berg.

Although the market has not seen something on this scale before, is not completely unprecedented. When Morrisons bought Safeway in 2004 they rebranded or sold the 479 stores - wiping them off of the British high street.

Will my local store close?

Like many of the other practical consequences of the merger, there have been claims on both sides of the fence about individual supermarket closures.

Sainsbury's chief executive, Mike Coupe, said on Monday morning he is 100% confident they won't need to close stores if the merger goes ahead.

However, less optimistically, Joe Clarke, national officer for Sainsbury's at Unite union told Sky News: "If you've got stores in close location to one another, stores will close."

In reality this will largely depend on the outcome of any potential CMA review. Berg said there are 75 postcodes up and down the UK where Sainsbury and Asda stores neighbour each other - including Keighley in West Yorks where they are metres apart - giving the company too much of a dominant position.

But until any review goes ahead, the number is hard to predict.

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What Could The Sainsbury's Asda Merger Mean For Shoppers?

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Supermarkets Sainsbury's and Asda have agreed a potential merger. While plans are still in their infancy, the proposal could see the companies seize a huge 30% slice of the market. So what might that mean for consumers? Could we see our local stores closed, or restructured?

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The UK food and grocery market is forecast to grow by 14.8% between now and 2023, giving it a value of £218.5bn, according to the latest forecasts released today by food and grocery research organisation IGD.
Continuing last year's trend, growth is predicted across all major grocery channels, with online and discount set to account for over half of the increase in market value to 2023. IGD anticipates £3 in every £10 of growth over the next five years will come from discounters. The outlook for larger stores has also improved with investments in price, range and the customer experience helping retailers to defend their market share better.

Other key findings of IGD's research include:

Discounters will achieve the biggest cash gain in sales over the next five years (30% of the total) as they benefit from further store openings and format development

Online will remain the fastest growing channel

The convenience channel is forecast to return to a stronger growth trend in 2019

Larger stores remain the most visited channel with 98% of shoppers visiting at least once in the last month, followed by convenience stores (89% of shoppers). 88% of shoppers use both channels

*'Discounters' includes all sales of Aldi and Lidl, and grocery-only sales of principal variety discounters, including Wilko
** 'Other retailers' includes specialist food and drink retailers, CTNs (confectionery, tobacco and news), food sales from mainly non-food retailers and street markets

Discount will make the biggest contribution to cash growth: +£8.5bn (+37%) driven by rapid physical expansion, with like-for-like growth supported by upgrades to existing stores. While discount growth will slow, it will still be the fastest growing channel in cash terms over the next five years. Physical expansions will continue to drive channel growth as retailers establish stores in new areas that offer a much more supermarket-like experience to shoppers. High quality store interiors, better customer facilities and enhancements to core categories and are set to build customer engagement across a broader range of categories.

Simon Wainwright, Director of Insight at IGD said: "Food discounters are benefiting from targeted investment in key categories such as fresh produce, meat and bakery, along with improvements to the in-store environment and facilities, making stores much more comparable to supermarkets.

"Variety discounters will see strong growth from investment in more store openings, but we will see this balance out with closures elsewhere. Opportunities for these retailers lie in developing the food-for-now and impulse grocery offers, taking a more flexible approach to formats, offering more unique and exciting products, and delivering compelling seasonal events. With almost 8 out of 10 (77%) of shoppers now saying they buy food from variety discounters every month, understanding shopper motivations and behaviour in this channel has never been more important."

Online will be the fastest growing channel: (+52% over the next five years). Smaller and more recent channel entrants will drive growth as they scale up their operations and target emerging shopper needs. More established players will step up their use of web analytics to improve and personalise shoppers' online experience. Indeed, two-thirds (61%) of online grocery shoppers say they would like it if online retailers personalised special offers based on what they buy regularly. More rapid and flexible fulfilment options will boost growth, such as click and collect services from more convenient locations such as local c-stores, places of work and unattended lockers. 34% of online grocery shoppers show an in interest in these services.

Simon Wainwright said: "Growth is increasingly being driven by recent entrants to the channel and more delivery options. But we're seeing more ambition from the Big Four as well, making ordering easier, improving picking, new capacity and faster deliveries. Analytics are also being utilised more effectively to target customers with more personalised content. Rising customer service expectations are encouraging the development of more rapid delivery services and other technological responses such as unattended delivery solutions."

Improving prospects in convenience: (+18% over the next five years). Though its market share will only grow modestly, the convenience channel will deliver the second biggest gain in sales as it meets the growing demand for smaller and more frequent shopping trips. IGD has identified younger shoppers and food-to-go as key initiatives coming through for the channel, with 42% of 18-24 convenience shoppers conducting a food-to-go shop on their last visit (vs. 25% of all c-store shoppers).

Simon Wainwright said: "Major opportunities exist for making c-stores front of mind for shopping trips, particularly those that help shoppers save time. Younger shoppers are key to growth as they are predisposed to shopping at c-stores for more shopping missions than older shoppers. Having grown up in the era of 'new convenience', offering wider ranges, longer opening hours and supermarket quality, younger generations will be key to driving ongoing growth, but have high expectations that need to be met."

Supermarkets and hypermarkets will experience some growth, following investments to improve the shopper experience. IGD's forecast for supermarkets continues to be positive, with the channel strengthened by current trading momentum. While growth is set to dip in 2019 as food inflation wanes, recovery is expected as improvements to stores help lift volumes and create an appealing in-store experience for family shoppers. Indeed, over half (53%) of large store shoppers agree that shopping in bigger stores is more enjoyable as there is more time to browse. This rises to 60% among those with children.

Simon Wainwright said: "Supermarkets are now better at defending their position against discounters as they become easier to shop with a focus on product quality and innovation, offering services and products that discounters don't with fast payments and by promoting omnichannel strengths.

"Maintaining appeal to shoppers will be a continuing challenge as shoppers migrate to more smaller and easier-to-shop formats and online sales evolve at pace. Underused hypermarket grocery space is expected to be converted for use by concessions and we anticipate this helping to strengthen the destination status of large stores and provide new reasons for shoppers to visit. Combining the grocery space and refining the non-food offer also should make stores easier and faster to shop for smaller basket shoppers."

For additional insight into the food and grocery industry, visit retailanalysis.igd.com and shoppervista.igd.com
ENDS Notes to editors:

1. IGD is a training and research charity for the food and grocery industry. Our in-depth understanding of shoppers, retailing and supply chains is supported by our knowledge of broader topics affecting the industry - health, nutrition, sustainability and economics among them. Our reach is global, with experts based in the UK, Singapore and North America. We invest the money we make from selling our expertise into our charitable activities.

2. IGD's grocery market forecast model draws on official forecasts for the UK economy from the Office for Budget Responsibility, combined with forecasts for individual retailers and channels, based on our knowledge of retailers' strategies and shopper trends.

3. Follow IGD's communications team on Twitter

For more information contact:
Alexandra Crisp on: or +44 (0) 1923 851986

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UK food and grocery market to grow 14.8% by £28.2bn by 2023

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The UK food and grocery market is forecast to grow by 14.8% between now and 2023, giving it a value of £218.5bn, according to the latest forecasts released today by food and grocery research organisation IGD.

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By: Mark Baum, Senior Vice President, Industry Relations and Chief Collaborations Officer, Food Marketing Institute

Food, beverage, and related product preferences are still the key draw, but today a company's business model also figures into consumer purchase decisions. That's because grocery business models are being reinvented in ways that provide specific benefits to customers.

Some examples are:

Subscription programs that enable easy replenishment.

Meal kits that offer convenient culinary cooking adventure.

Direct-to-consumer delivery enables consumers to skip trips to physical stores.

Retailers need to understand each model and the relevance to different customer need states. For example, some of the models aim to make the lives of time-starved shoppers easier, while others offer a culinary experience. Understanding these insights can help retailers consider how incorporating these different business models into traditional food retail can lead to business growth. It's also important to consider collaboration opportunities with trading partners so food retailers can begin to diversify their offerings to shoppers. Below are three new business models to consider:

Reinventing Frozen Foods

"How many of you are busy?" asked Rachel Drori, founder and CEO of Daily Harvest, who outlined her company's model during a presentation at Grocerytalk. "You may want to eat clean foods, but life is busy."

Daily Harvest is a startup that uses a direct-to-consumer subscription and delivery model for its nontraditional frozen food line of products. The company aims to present frozen foods in a new "superfood" light by offering items rich in produce and nutrients. It emphasizes ease of preparation and superior health benefits compared to a wide variety of "hyper-processed" foods on the market. The brand's items, ranging from cacao and avocado smoothies to blackberry and majik parfaits, are delivered to consumers' homes along with simple preparation instructions.

The business model is especially geared to a new breed of consumers who want to know more about product ingredients and attributes.

"By owning the supply chain, we can have full transparency from beginning to end," she said.

Here we have a new spin on a traditional product line, which is an interesting way to re-introduce products to your shoppers. What product lines in your stores could be reinvented in a similar way? Which trading partners might you partner with to pilot a similar business model?

Retooling Meal Kits

Other companies are putting new spins on already popular models, such as meal kits. These kits have enjoyed significant growth over the past few years. A young meal kit company, Chef'd, has been attempting to differentiate with some new elements. These include:

Avoiding an emphasis on subscription programs, in contrast to many competitors, in order to promote flexibility.

Offering a wide range of options with "thousands of meal kits from renowned chefs and food brands from around the world."

Emphasizing easy reorders and personalized recommendations.

Taking an omnichannel approach by making products available in multiple places.

The Chef'd founder and CEO, Kyle Ransford, said meal kits are positioned to surge at retail.

"Retail is where meal kits will grow at an incredible rate in the next 24 months," he said. "The retail vertical is going to be as big or bigger this year for us than the online vertical."

While there is opportunity for meal kits at retail, the right business model is still being determined and there is not a "one size fits" all solution in this space. Food retailers are experimenting with different ways of offering meal kits to shoppers, while stratifying their need for convenience and food exploration. It will be interesting to see which food retail meal kit business models become the most successful moving forward.

Snacking With Subscriptions

Subscriptions may not be important to some companies, but they are essential to the strategies of others.

KIND Snacks, a high-profile brand in the snack bar industry, is growing its business with a subscription concept that offers convenience and builds loyalty.

The KIND Snack Club is a subscription and delivery program that enables customer replenishment at desired intervals without the need to visit a store or execute regular online purchases.

The club's benefits include discounts, surprises that include free food, early alerts about new products, and the ability to suggest new flavors and items.

The club model helps to underscore the brand's positive messages, said Jarid Lukin, vice president of e-commerce, KIND Snacks.

"People buy KIND partly because of what it stands for. So we integrate that into a subscription experience," he said. "Who wouldn't want to belong to a club of kindness? You need a strong brand message or you're just a commodity."

Food retailers should ask themselves what products or categories might lend themselves to this type of a subscription model. The focus on snacking subscriptions meets a specific need for shoppers, but there could be a way for a traditional grocery store to offer a subscription model that satisfies similar or other consumer needs while growing basket size.

Take Advantage of Changing Business Models in Food Retail

Whether delivery, meal kits or subscriptions, each of these nontraditional business models tap into specific customer needs. Food retailers have always been adept at identifying and incorporating emerging trends into their own platforms. Retailers need to fully investigate the range of nontraditional models so they can determine how to respond to these market shifts and emerging business models as well as offer new models of their own. Should they partner with upstart companies? Should they introduce their own unique spins on these new and emerging models? It starts with understanding the new landscape, and then developing an action plan geared to a retailer's specific customer base. It's an era of experimentation and I can't wait to see what happens next.

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It's About Food - But Also Disruptive Business Models

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By: Mark Baum, Senior Vice President, Industry Relations and Chief Collaborations Officer, Food Marketing Institute Food, beverage, and related product preferences are still the key draw, but today a company's business model also figures into consumer purchase decisions. That's because grocery business models are being reinvented in ways that provide specific benefits to customers.

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The idea that the primary grocery shopper is female is changing. Scroll down to learn more.

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FMI | Food Marketing Institute | Corporate Social Responsibility

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Today's grocery shopper wants to know what their store stands for. We work on corporate social responsibility issues including animal welfare, sustainability, food waste and more.

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