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[Question] Why do we think the fertility rate estimates varied so dramatically?

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[Question] Why do we think the fertility rate estimates varied so dramatically?

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What other policies could respond to population growth models?

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“To maintain a stable population without immigration, a country’s fertility rate needs to be at the ‘replacement level’ of 2.1 births per woman.

Predictions of population in both the near and long-term future typically come down to estimates of how quickly fertility will change. And that means demographers have to make some educated guesses about how people will behave as their circumstances alter. In high-income countries, these behavioural changes are usually driven by economic factors. As opportunities emerge, women prioritize careers, and couples delay having

children during a recession.

In less-wealthy nations, other factors dominate. As more girls are educated, they tend to have fewer children and to have them later. And more people have access to contraception as health systems and distribution networks improve. In that sense, falling fertility rates reflect economic development.

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Predictions of population in both the near and long-term future typically come down to estimates of how quickly fertility will change.

And that means demographers have to make some educated guesses about how people will behave as their circumstances alter. In high-income countries, these behavioral changes are usually driven by economic

factors. As opportunities emerge, women prioritize careers, and couples delay having children during a recession.

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If there is a correlation between the economy and population growth, is this enough to naturally regulate fertility without government-issued policies?

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"The trends of decreased occupancy were the same for the second landscape change scenario where only half of the development occurred on forestland, although the magnitude of changes decreased."

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"The trends of decreased occupancy were the same for the second landscape change scenario where only half of the development occurred on forestland, although the magnitude of changes decreased."

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I don't quite know how to respond to this, to be honest. The customs and practices in terms of landscaping and living area are passed down from generation to generation in terms of living. How can we regulate moving into a new environment/land productively (because there are some things out of bounds in that regard)?

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“The government initially told them to “Stop-at-Two” and backed up the policy with a series of measures to deter couples from having three or more children.”

Let's consider the ethics of the "Stop at two" program. On one side, it makes complete sense. People should not be growing so much. It puts enormous stress on climate and resources. On the other hand, there's no real way to enforce it. What about triplets? Doesn't that also mean also that rich people could pay the taxes on more children, and then the population of poorer people would go down? But also, don't rich people typically have fewer kids anyway? Who knows.

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“The one thing unfortunately about population projections is they will always turn out to be wrong.”That’s why some in the field prefer to leave the future alone and focus instead on improving the accuracy of data used immediately to set policy: counting people alive right now. In some places, especially those facing instability and civil strife, that’s more difficult than it sounds.

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“The one thing unfortunately about population projections is they will always turn out to be wrong.”That’s why some in the field prefer to leave the future alone and focus instead on improving the accuracy of data used immediately to set policy: counting people alive right now. In some places, especially those facing instability and civil strife, that’s more difficult than it sounds.

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Question: Is this reasonable thinking or sound, should we ignore population growth or continue trying to calculate it and forth?

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Instead of relying on data and past trends to forecast future falls in fertility due to development, the IIASA group turned to expert judgment. They asked some 200 researchers, including economists, demographers, and sociologists, to predict fertility rates for individual countries in 2030 and 2050, on the basis of what they expected to happen to several social, health, and economic factors. Some of these estimates varied considerably. Forecasts of fertility rates in India ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 for 2030 and from 1.1 to 2.5 for 2050.Would it be better to over or under-estimate population growth? Overestimation could lead to an excess in resources but they would lead to more harm to the environment, but underestimation would probably lead to human suffering

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Instead of relying on data and past trends to forecast future falls in fertility due to development, the IIASA group turned to expert judgment. They asked some 200 researchers, including economists, demographers, and sociologists, to predict fertility rates for individual countries in 2030 and 2050, on the basis of what they expected to happen to several social, health, and economic factors. Some of these estimates varied considerably. Forecasts of fertility rates in India ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 for 2030 and from 1.1 to 2.5 for 2050.Would it be better to over or under-estimate population growth? Overestimation could lead to an excess in resources but they would lead to more harm to the environment, but underestimation would probably lead to human suffering

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In addition to how much land will be developed, the pattern of where this development will happen is a critical factor to understand how wildlife will respond to increased human population growth. The location of development, specifically exurban development, is often nonrandom relative to biodiversity because both are influenced by biophysical factors

Question: What is the connection between location of development and population growth within wildlife and humans?

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In 2014, a group at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)  in Vienna produced its own forecast. It said that world population is most likely to peak at 9.4 billion around 2070 and will fall to 9 billion by the

end of the century. The group’s numbers rose slightly in a 2018 report 3 that projected a peak of about 9.8 billion around 2080; a subsequent update has population cresting at a little under 9.7 billion around 2070. And then, last year, a paper 4

from a team at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School

of Medicine in Seattle, suggested that global population will peak at around 9.7 billion in 2064, and then decline to about 8.8 billion by 2100.

Question:  Why does data that predicts population growth have variations in the quanitty of human population?

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“One technique is to monitor mobile phone traffic. By tracing calls to the phone towers that send and receive them, researchers can use call density around the towers to estimate the local population” (465)

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“One technique is to monitor mobile phone traffic. By tracing calls to the phone towers that send and receive them, researchers can use call density around the towers to estimate the local population” (465)

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While this phone tracking method isn’t considered too invasive, it may progress to other approaches that cross boundaries. How can we be more effective at counting the population while also respecting privacy? Should we place any laws or regulations?

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Nature Article p. 463 "The UN says world population will plateau at 10.9 billion by the end of the century. The other groups forecast earlier and smaller peaks, with global population reaching 9.7 billion by 2070 and then declining."

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Nature Article p. 463 "The UN says world population will plateau at 10.9 billion by the end of the century. The other groups forecast earlier and smaller peaks, with global population reaching 9.7 billion by 2070 and then declining."

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The discrepancy here is quite significant, with a difference of over a billion people. Additionally, the UN is not predicting any kind of decline, whereas the other groups predict well before the end of the century. What do you think accounts for this? Is it related to differences in declining birth rates and climate change forecasts? Which do you find more reasonable?

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Are these low levels of growth surprising? How much of population change is dependent on political and economic change? I would think that the environment functions more predictably than political and economic change. How does political and economic change complicate the investigation of population change?

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Are these low levels of growth surprising? How much of population change is dependent on political and economic change? I would think that the environment functions more predictably than political and economic change. How does political and economic change complicate the investigation of population change?

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“The UN says world population will plateau at 10.9 billion by the end of the century . .. Both the United States and China reported that they are experiencing record low levels of population growth. ..” (page 1)

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“Last year,a paper from a team at the institute for health metrics and evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine in Seattle, suggested that global population will peak at around 9.7 billion in 2064, and then decline to about 8.8 billion by 2100. Some 23 countries could see their current population halved by the end of the century, the study said, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain.”

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“Last year,a paper from a team at the institute for health metrics and evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine in Seattle, suggested that global population will peak at around 9.7 billion in 2064, and then decline to about 8.8 billion by 2100. Some 23 countries could see their current population halved by the end of the century, the study said, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain.”

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What would this look like? How would different ecosystems be affected, and how would quality of life in humans change?

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“Some 23 countries could see their current population halved by the end of the century, the study said, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain”(Adam 464)

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“Some 23 countries could see their current population halved by the end of the century, the study said, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain”(Adam 464)

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With such short immediate population loss how will this affect the economies of those countries? And will this lack of population lead to a stronger Ecosystem like we saw during the early days of covid?

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All estimates of population start with the same question: how many people are alive right now? Attempts to answer that question go back to 4000 bc, when the Babylonians used a census to work out how much food they needed to feed their people. Ancient Egyptian, Roman and Chinese societies all carried out regular counts.

Question:
If on average people are dying and being born so often, would counting a general estimate of people be advisable/trustworthy data for future birth rates and populations? Could there be any other factors that might interfere with such data?

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I do believe in the correlation between the economy and the population growth in most circumstances. More money = more stability for households, etc. I think regulating fertility is just immoral though, and not plausible in a free country.

- George

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Text “How far will Global population rise”

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Text “How far will Global population rise”

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“Both the United States and China reported that they are experiencing record low levels of population growth. Those results made head-lines, but they are in line with what demographers expected, says Gerland. That's because both countries track and produce regular, reliable data on births and deaths, which allow population researchers to monitor trends in almost real time”

Question: What if countries didn’t track or produce regular reliable data on birth and deaths? How would it effect how population researchers get their info?

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“Predictions of population in both the near and long-term future typically come down to estimates of how quickly fertility will change. And that means demographers have to make some educated guesses about how people will behave as their circumstances alter. In high-income countries, these behavioural changes are usually driven by economic

factors. As opportunities emerge, women prioritize careers, and couples delay having children during a recession.”

What are the positive and negative affects of a overgrowing population going down?

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The UN is sometimes unable to see the full picture--I would personally say that we can attribute the discrepancy to climate change somewhat, with the intense drumming comparison often made to the social climate by the uninitiated.
- George

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Isaac B (How Far Will Global Population rise?- Nature Article) Pg. 464

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Isaac B (How Far Will Global Population rise?- Nature Article) Pg. 464

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“It’s kind of an impossible exercise and so we do the best we can and it’s good that different groups use different approaches." (Leontine Alkema, a statistical modeler at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.)

In other words, different outcomes reflect uncertainty in making projections. We can counter exponential population growth by attempting a variety of disruptive tactics along with a collective effort and recognition of the issue. I find this plan of action to be unsettling, as Leontine's statement is quite vague. There seems to be no management or control over specific groups that may be more detrimental to the status quo than their neighbors. This begs the question: How will we bring nations together to recognize and overcome this issue?

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"How fertility rates and population numbers will change in the longer term, over several decades or more, is more difficult to predict. And this is where the serious controversy starts. For decades, the UN Population Division had the field largely to itself, and churned out routine updates every couple of years. Its most recent report, published in 2019, forecasts that global population will continue to rise from its current 7.7 billion and could reach nearly 11 billion by 2100".

There will continue to be controversy surrounding the ability to moderate the population for future generations due to the conflict between human rights and the health of our economy. They are trying to avoid a potential recession and another great depression. Now whether or not it is entirely ethical to regulate another person's body specifically the reproductive system is obvious. However, whether or not it is unnecessary is debatable because tons of places are overpopulated and will effect the economy.  How can we enforce such rules? Should we enforce such rules or create more systems to have room for children? What policies should be put in place or restricted? What are the dangers in letting the population flourish?

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Better off overestimating than underestimating regardless. Excess in resources tends to be a myth in my opinion.

- George

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"...The world population is most likely to peak at 9.4 billion by the end of the century"
Question:
What might be the rate at which the population drops after it reaches this peak? If low birth rates are associated with successful states, then how will countries with lowering birth rates bring them higher?

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Where lies the strangling fruit that came from the hand of the sinner I shall bring forth the seeds of the dead to share with the worms that gather in the darkness and surround the world with the power of their lives while from the dimlit halls of other places forms that never were and never could be writhe for the impatience of the few who never saw what could have been. In the black water with the sun shining at midnight, those fruit shall come ripe and in the darkness of that which is golden shall split open to reveal the revelation of the fatal softness in the earth. The shadows of the abyss are like the petals of a monstrous flower that shall blossom within the skull and expand the mind beyond what any man can bear, but whether it decays under the earth or above on green fields, or out to sea or in the very air, all shall come to revelation, and to revel, in the knowledge of the strangling fruit—and the hand of the sinner shall rejoice, for there is no sin in shadow or in light that the seeds of the dead cannot forgive. And there shall be in the planting in the shadows a grace and a mercy from which shall blossom dark flowers, and their teeth shall devour and sustain and herald the passing of an age. That which dies shall still know life in death for all that decays is not forgotten and reanimated it shall walk the world in the bliss of not-knowing. And then there shall be a fire that knows the naming of you, and in the presence of the strangling fruit, its dark flame shall acquire every part of you that remains.

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In March 1987, officials performed a demographic U-turn. Under the awkward slogan

“Have Three or More (if you can afford it)”, the scales tipped abruptly towards those with larger families, who were now given priority for schools and housing.

question: how many can a women have before it becomes unsafe? and if there is no cap why hasn't mother nature implemented it?

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"Changes in fertility rates with anticipated economic development are key, and the three models account for this process in different ways. The UN modellers divide the way that fertility tends to slow, decline and then recover into several phases. Changes in each country’s birth rate in recent years are then used to place each nation into one of these phases, and some 100,000 possible pathways for future fertility are modelled. The UN then takes the median of these projections and presents it as the most likely scenario.

Instead of relying on data and past trends to forecast future falls in fertility due to devel- opment, the IIASA group turned to expert judgement.They asked some 200 research- ers, including economists, demographers and sociologists, to predict fertility rates for indi- vidual countries in 2030 and 2050, on the basis of what they expected to happen to several social, health and economic factors. Some of these estimates varied considerably. Forecasts of fertility rates in India ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 for 2030 and from 1.1 to 2.5 for 2050.

The IHME team did things quite differently. Instead of basing its model on fertility rates, and how they would change, the group used a variable called completed cohort fertility at 50 years (CC50). This counts the number of children each woman has had by the time she reaches 50 "

My question is: Are these really the most effective ways to project the global populations? For example the IHME one, the fertility rates vary by one, which isnt accurate. What is the best way to predict the global population?

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"Some 23 countries could see their current population havled by the end of century, the study said, including japan,Thailand,Italy and Spain. The different outcomes reflect the uncertainty in making projections over such a long period."

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"Some 23 countries could see their current population havled by the end of century, the study said, including japan,Thailand,Italy and Spain. The different outcomes reflect the uncertainty in making projections over such a long period."

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Both the United States and China reported that they are experiencing record low levels of population growth. Those results made head- lines, but they are in line with what demogra- phers expected, says Gerland. That’s because both countries track and produce regular, reli- able data on births and deaths, which allow population researchers to monitor trends in almost real time.

I am curious about how the pandemic has impacted the accuracy of this information.

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""How fertility rates and population numbers will change in the longer term, over several decades or more, is more difficult to predict. And this is where the serious controversy starts. For decades, the UN Population Division had the field largely to itself, and churned out routine updates every couple of years. Its most recent report, published in 2019, forecasts that global population will continue to rise from its current 7.7 billion and could reach nearly 11 billion by 2100."

I agree that populations can be difficult to predict. Different kinds of countries will have different growth patterns.  In developed countries, growth might slow down as more people put their careers over starting a family.  In less developed countries, there is less birth control, and population growth is more dependent on having enough food and stability.  So in countries without war or famine would there still be lots of growth? What are other factors/constraints scientists are concerned/disputing about?