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STATE

Demographics:

Population: 19.85 million

Population density: 421 people/square mile

Median age: 36

Plurality of state population age: 45-49

Population by age: under 18 is 21%, 18-64 is 63%, 65+ is 16%

Race and ethnicity: 55% White, 18% Latino, 17% Black, 9% Asian, 1% Other

Sex: male is 48.6%, female is 51.4%

Median household income: $60,741

Poverty rates: 14.1%

Voter Turnout: With the eighth worst voter turnout in the United States, New York had a voter turnout of 57.2% of eligible voters in the 2016 presidential election.

Voter Registration Laws: In order to be able to vote in New York state, you must be a U.S. citizen who will be at least 18 years old by the date of the next election, and you must have had lived at your current address for at least 30 days before an election in which you wish to vote. Voters can request to apply to register in person at either the country board of election, or any New York state agency-based voter registration center. If you cannot register in person, you can also submit forms by mail, by telephone, or online.

DISTRICT 19

Demographics:

Population: 700, 975

Population density: 88.3 people/square mile

Median age: 44.9

Plurality of district population age: 50-59

Population by age: under 18 is 18% 18-64 is 62%, 65+ is 20%

Race and ethnicity: 84% White, 8% Hispanic, 4% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Other

Sex: male is 50.1%, female is 49.9%

Median household income: $61,662

Poverty rates: 12.4%

Voter Turnout: New York district 19 had a voter turnout of 44% of eligible voters for the House of Representatives general election in 2016.

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Campaign Ads:
John Faso Campaign Advertisement

Antonio Delgado Campaign Advertisement

2016 Election Numbers: New York as a state voted for Hillary Clinton. 59% of votes went to Clinton, 36.5% of votes went to Trump, and 4.5% voted for other candidates.

Faso's Endorsements: Major endorsements for John Faso’s campaign came from Elliott Management, Jane Street Capital, AT&T Inc., Blackstone Group, and Met Life Inc..

Delgado's Endorsements: Antonio Delgado’s campaign received endorsements from international law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, Swing Left, Alphabet Inc., Columbia University, Harvard University, and more.

Major Issues: According to a voter survey from WNYT, the top three issues that will dictate how they vote in this election are the presidency, healthcare, and jobs/the economy. 89.2% of the time, John Faso votes in line with Trump’s position on major issues. In terms of jobs and the economy, Delgado states on his campaign website, “I want to ensure that local small businesses are no longer crippled by regulations while massive corporations play by their own set of rules. I will be an ally to small businesses, workers, and labor unions, not big corporations and special interests. And I will fight to increase the minimum wage”. Faso’s campaign website lacks detail about jobs, but about the economy he says the following: “Working to grow our local economies, he recognizes that New York’s high tax burden and byzantine regulations are causing families and businesses to flee the state and set down roots elsewhere. To help combat this dangerous trend, John introduced H.R. 1871, the Property Tax Reduction Act, a bill that would prevent New York State from pushing the financial burden of the state’s Medicaid program onto county property taxpayers, providing relief for many Upstate families”. Healthcare is arguably the most crucial issue being debated, and the candidates have the following views. On Faso’s website, it says, “John is working to reform our healthcare system with commonsense solutions that will improve the quality of the care we receive, lower costs, increase transparency and allow families, not the government, to make decisions about their care”, while Delgado says “My goal is to get us to universal coverage as fast as possible, and the best way to do that is by creating a public option, giving everyone the choice to opt into Medicare.”

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We predict that open-seat congressional candidate Antonio Delgado will win the upcoming election in New York’s 19th district. Based on recent polls and voting habits of the district’s voters, Delgado will most likely become the next congressman representing the district. First, recent polls taken in district 19 show Delgado’s lead over his republican competition, John Faso. In this ABC News article, it predicts that there is a 3/5 chance that Delgado will win the election as the democratic candidate. As seen in this poll and many others, such as an AARP poll which states that Delgado is leading Faso 43% to 36%, Delgado has a clear lead in the polls which is why we think that he will be the next congressman of NY district 19. In addition, we believe that Antonio Delgado will win the upcoming congressional election because of the state’s past voting patterns. New York is historically a blue state, and in this election district 19 will most likely follow in its state’s footsteps according to recent polls. These polls only further support district 19’s lean towards democratic voting in this election.

One may argue that because John Faso is the incumbent candidate, he will be voted into office again this year. They would state this because of the large margin of error that the polling could be tainted with, leading them to believe that John Faso will win this election. Though this is a viable argument, it is proven false by many polls done in the district by the New York Times, ABC News, AARP, and more that show Delgado in the lead. Since New York has primarily voted democratically in the past as a whole, it is probable that district 19 will follow the same pattern and elect the democratic candidate. For these reasons, we believe that Antonio Delgado will be voted into congress.

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Hicks, Nolan. “Poll Shows Democratic Challenger Gaining Steam in Hudson Valley.” New York Post, New York Post, 30 Oct. 2018, nypost.com/2018/10/30/poll-shows-democratic-challenger-gaining-steam-in-hudson-valley/.

Lombardo, David. “Siena Poll: Delgado/Faso Race Is Too Close to Call.” Times Union, Times Union, 5 Nov. 2018, www.timesunion.com/news/article/Delgado-holds-narrow-lead-over-Faso-13362037.php.

“Meet John.” John Faso for Congress, johnfaso.com/issues/.

“New York District 19 Race.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/races/contributors?cycle=2018&id=NY19&spec=N.

“New York Election Results 2016.” The New York Times, The New York Times, www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/new-york.

“New York's 19th Congressional District Election, 2018.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/New_York's_19th_Congressional_District_election,_2018.

“Rep. John Faso - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00037288.

“U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: New York.” Census Bureau QuickFacts, www.census.gov/quickfacts/ny.

“The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/political-courage-test/4311/john-faso/#.W99F7i-ZNQI.

“Voting in New York.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Voting_in_New_York.

Wideeyecreative. “Issues.” Delgado for Congress, delgadoforcongress.com/issues-list/.

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The democratic candidate unlike the republican candidate has not participated in politics in the past and this will be his first race. In the past Antonio Delgado graduated from Colgate University he then received a Rhodes Scholarship to Oxford later he graduated from Harvard Law School. Then pursuing a different passion of his he worked as an executive and artist at the music label Statik Entertainment. He is now working as a litigation associate for Akin Gump out of New York City. Antonio Delgado is also on the liberal view of all the issues presented on the party platform leading to the conclusion that his ideological views are also extreme rather the moderate.

Although both Delgado and Faso refused to provide their opinions on key issues presented in 2018 including the legalization of marijuana and reducing defense spending in order to balance the budget.

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The republican candidate; John Faso is also the incumbent for this position. He was first elected in 2016 by a margin of 8 percentage points. John Faso attended and graduated SUNY Brockport and Georgetown Law School. In the past he worked as a commissioner on the New York Legislative Bill. Later he served for 15 years as the state legislature. Before John Faso was in the House of Representatives he  did many things, including but not limited to being member of the Buffalo Fiscal Stability Authority and workings as an attorney. John Faso is on the conservative side of most every issue on the party platform, which leads to the belief that he is more conservative then the average republican.