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Take a journey through the unseen world of decisions and how they get made inside your brain. Your emotions, your rationality, and your memories all come together to help your neural networks decide what to do next.

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Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us

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Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us

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drive: the surprising truth about what motivates us

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self-esteem and positive mental attitude

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drive; daniel h. pink; when; to sell is human; a whole new mind; simon sinek; johnny bunko; malcolm gladwell; daniel kahnemann; thinking fast and slow; start with why; simon sinek; the defining decade; meg jay; the power of habit

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self-esteem and positive mental attitude

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Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us

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Buy Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us Main by Pink, Daniel H. (ISBN: 9781786891709) from Amazon's Book Store. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders.

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Thinking Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman

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Thinking Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman

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Kahneman, a winner of the Nobel Prize for economics, distils a lifetime of research into an encyclopedic coverage of both the surprising miracles and the equally surprising mistakes of our conscious and unconscious thinking.

This brilliant book explores the two ways we make choices: fast, intuitive thinking, and slow, rational thinking.

He achieves an even greater miracle by weaving his insights into an engaging narrative that is compulsively readable from beginning to end. This book is a must read for anyone with a curious mind!

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business & economics / decision-making & problem solving

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psychology / cognitive psychology & cognition

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happiness; gladwell; quiet; nudge; outliers; personal development; who moved my cheese; freakonomics; undoing project michael lewis

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business & economics / decision-making & problem solving

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psychology / cognitive psychology & cognition

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Buy Thinking, Fast and Slow 01 by Daniel Kahneman (ISBN: 9780141033570) from Amazon's Book Store. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders.

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to sell is human: the surprising truth about persuading

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drive; daniel h. pink; when; to sell is human; a whole new mind; simon sinek; johnny bunko; malcolm gladwell; daniel kahnemann; thinking fast and slow; start with why; simon sinek; the defining decade; meg jay; the power of habit

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political science - political process - leadership

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To Sell is Human: The Surprising Truth About Persuading, Convincing, and Influencing Others

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Buy To Sell is Human: The Surprising Truth About Persuading, Convincing, and Influencing Others Main by Pink, Daniel H. (ISBN: 9781786891716) from Amazon's Book Store. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders.

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Nir dwells in the intersection of psychology, technology, and business. He explores user experience, behavioural economics, and a dash of neuroscience.

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Nir And Far: Business, Behaviour and the Brain

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Nir And Far: Business, Behaviour and the Brain

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Nir And Far, a podcast about business, behaviour and the brain by Nir Eyal.

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Scott's podcast shares insights into the mind, brain, behavior and creativity. Each episode features a guest (authors, experts, and doctors) who will stimulate your mind, and give you a greater understanding of yourself, others, our human potential and the world we live in.

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Welcome to The Psychology Podcast with Scott Barry Kaufman, where we give you insights into the mind, brain, behavior and creativity. Each episode we'll feature a guest who will stimulate your mind, and give you a greater understanding of your self, others, and the world we live in. Hopefully, we'll also provide a glimpse into human possibility! Thanks for listening and enjoy the podcast. Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/the-psychology-podcast/support

Welcome to The Psychology Podcast with Scott Barry Kaufman, where we give you insights into the mind, brain, behavior and creativity. Each episode we'll feature a guest who will stimulate your mind, and give you a greater understanding of your self, others, and the world we live in. Hopefully, we'll also provide a glimpse into human possibility! Thanks for listening and enjoy the podcast. Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/the-psychology-podcast/support

This is an incredible gift

I've only just listened to two of these podcasts and I'm already blown away. There is so much useful information to help me change my own life - no expensive doctors or therapists requires! The host is wonderful and warm and the guests he has on his show are humble, extremely knowledgeable and so authentic. Thank you so much for this. I highly recommend this channel to anyone seeking to learn more about psychology and the wonder that is the human conditions. This is honestly a gift and I'm so excited to learn more.

Love it

Quirky host is delightful and info easy to listen to and informative. I am not a psychologist but find info understandable

Captivating beyond

Constantly relevant. Without a doubt, an untimely range of creative conversation and conceptual real life ideas. Love it !

Also, big respect for all the guest speakers.

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the psychology podcast with scott barry kaufman

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‎The Psychology Podcast with Scott Barry Kaufman on Apple Podcasts

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‎Welcome to The Psychology Podcast with Scott Barry Kaufman, where we give you insights into the mind, brain, behavior and creativity. Each episode we'll feature a guest who will stimulate your mind, and give you a greater understanding of your self, others, and the world we live in. Hopefully, we'll...

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Host Shankar Vedantam explains the science behind the unconscious patterns that drive human behaviour, shape our choices, and direct our relationships. His storytelling strategies will capture your attention and leave a lasting imprint on your brain. It’s a great podcast for anyone who wants to better understand why we do the things we do.

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Recent episodes of Hidden Brain podcast can now be found at hiddenbrain.org. Hidden Brain helps curious people understand the world-- and themselves. Using science and storytelling, Hidden Brain's host Shankar Vedantam reveals the unconscious patterns that drive human behavior, the biases that shape our choices, and the triggers that direct the course of our relationships.

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The Psych Files is a podcast for anyone who wonders why we do what we do.
Michael Britt explores a variety of psychology topics and applies them to everyday life. Upbeat and friendly, he’ll capture your attention and break down tough principles in easy-to-understand examples.
Episodes are just 20 to 40 minutes long, so you can fit them in while you’re commuting or at the gym. It’s a great listen for anyone who wants to understand basic psychology.

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The Psych Files is a podcast for anyone who wonders why we do what we do. Experienced educator Michael Britt, Ph.D., in an upbeat and friendly style, shows you how ideas from the field of psychology apply to everyday life. If you are a life-long learner, a student or a teacher, you will find his 20-30 minute episodes enjoyable and educational. Over 14 million episodes have been downloaded to date with over 100,000 people listening every month. See what all the talk is about!

The Psych Files is a podcast for anyone who wonders why we do what we do. Experienced educator Michael Britt, Ph.D., in an upbeat and friendly style, shows you how ideas from the field of psychology apply to everyday life. If you are a life-long learner, a student or a teacher, you will find his 20-30 minute episodes enjoyable and educational. Over 14 million episodes have been downloaded to date with over 100,000 people listening every month. See what all the talk is about!

Interesting & informative

Great podcast if you're an eager learner. Host has pleasing demeanor and sounds like Dr. Phlox on Enterprise. Keep up the good work.

Please don't take down

I just found this show. Please don't take it down for a long while. I need some time to get through all of the years' content :)

Awesome podcast

The best psych podcast. Graduating this semester and your podcast helped a lot! You have the perfect voice for this. Relaxing and kind. Hope you go on to do something similar!

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‎The Psych Files is a podcast for anyone who wonders why we do what we do. Experienced educator Michael Britt, Ph.D., in an upbeat and friendly style, shows you how ideas from the field of psychology apply to everyday life. If you are a life-long learner, a student or a teacher, you will find his 20-...

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Wharton professor Katy Milkman shares stories of people who made poor choices—from historical blunders to everyday errors. She explores the psychological traps that led to expensive mistakes.

With guests like Angela Duckworth and Laurie Santos, you’ll hear from some of the most influential people in the field of psychology.

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Can we learn to make smarter choices? Listen is as host Katy Milkman--behavioral scientist, Wharton professor, and author of How to Change--shares stories of high-stakes decisions and what research reveals they can teach us. Choiceology, an original podcast from Charles Schwab, explores the lessons of behavioral economics to help you improve your judgment and change for good.

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We buy on emotion and justify with logic.

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We buy on emotion and justify with logic.

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Yet we sell to Mr Rational and Ignore Ms Intuitive. 🤔

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Harvard Business School professor Gerald Zaltman[i] says that 95% of our purchase decision making takes place subconsciously (aka System 1).[ii] Despite widespread agreement amongst neuroscientists that our conscious rational mind plays a minor role in decision making, why do our sales messages to buyers focus almost exclusively on facts and figures? Doesn't all of this data flood customers with too much information, and result in paralysis for analysis? Why do we largely ignore the emotional subconscious, the real star of decision making? If we really want to reduce the number of sales opportunities lost to no decision, shouldn't we also be directing our sales message to Mr. Intuitive, and not just Mr. Rational?
Why we revert to rational persuasion
We default to selling to Mr. Rational because, when we think of ourselves, we identify with our conscious rational mind. We can't imagine that serious executives would make decisions based on emotion, because we view our emotional decisions as irrational and irresponsible- a vestigial legacy of our animal past. This distain for emotion is backed by 2,500 years of conditioning, beginning with Plato's view that man is rational and that it is our emotions that interfere with rational decisions.
But emotional decisions are neither bad nor irrational
Thanks to new research, we now understand that our emotional decisions are not irrational or bad. In fact, our unconscious decisions have logic of their own. They are based on a deeply empirical mental processing system that is capable of processing effortlessly millions of bits of data without getting overwhelmed. Our conscious mind, on the other hand, has a strict bottleneck, because it can only process 3-4 new pieces of information at a time due to the limitation of our working memory.[iii]

But what makes our unconscious so intelligent is that it has spent a lifetime learning from our successes and failures. It has evolved to make decisions for us according to rules of thumb. It works most of the time,[iv] which is why experts believe in "trusting their gut."

The Iowa Gambling Task study,[v] for example, best highlights how effective the emotional brain is at effortlessly figuring out the probability of success for maximum gain. Subjects were given an imaginary budget, and four decks of cards. They could draw any cards they wanted, and the objective of the game was to win as much money as possible.

The subjects were not aware that the decks were carefully prepared: 1) drawing from two of the decks led to consistent wins, and 2) the other two had high payouts, but carried oversized punishments. The logical choice was to avoid the dangerous deck, and after about 50 cards, people did stop drawing from the risky deck. It wasn't until the 80 th card, however, that people could explain why. Logic is slow.

But the experiment was just getting started. Because the subjects were hooked up with a device that measured the electrical conductance of their skin, the scientists were able to track the subjects' anxiety. This allowed the scientists to discover that after only drawing 10 cards, the subject's hand got nervous when it reached for the risky deck. In effect, their emotion of anxiety sensed which deck was dangerous in only 10 cards versus 80 for the logical mind. Intuition is fast.
Although we buy on emotion, we don't decide on emotion
So, it's our unconscious mental processing that makes decisions, and these decisions are communicated to our conscious mind via an emotion. Reasoning from studies on monkeys,[vi] for example, neuroscientists have been able to see how dopamine levels increase or decrease based on the success or failure of unconsciously anticipating rewards. These positive/negative emotions are then transported to your conscious mind well in advance of a conscious decision. That's why the risky deck felt emotionally dangerous by the 10 th card versus the 80 th card for the logical mind.
So where's the proof that we make emotional decisions?
If it's true that 95% of our purchase decisions take place unconsciously, then why are we not able to look back through our decision history, and find countless examples of emotional decisions? The answer is that our conscious mind will always make up reasons to justify our unconscious decisions. It does this to maintain the illusion that our conscious mind is in charge. We know this to be true, because neuroscientists have been able to catch the conscious mind red handed in this act of deception. The split brain subjects for this study[vii] were ideal, because they allowed the scientists to trick the brain. The subjects, for example, had the left and right hemisphere of their brains severed in order to prevent future epileptic seizures. Because the left and right side of the brain could no longer communicate, the scientists were able to deliver a message to the right side of the brain to "Go to the water fountain down the hall and get a drink." After seeing the message, the subject would get up and start to leave the room, and that's when the scientist would trick the brain and deliver a message to the opposite left side of the brain asking "Where are you going?" Now remember, the left side of the brain never saw the message about the fountain. But did the left brain admit it didn't know the answer, or say here's my best guess? No, instead it shamelessly fabricated a rational reason, and said "It's cold in here. I'm going to get my jacket."
Sell to Mr. Rational for simple sales, and Mr. Intuitive for complex sales
While the science of decision making remains a relatively young science, and more research needs to be done, there are some guidelines that salespeople can use to help buyers make better decisions. For simple products, it's better to sell more to Mr. Rational, and for more complex products, it's better to sell to Mr. Intuitive. This conclusion is backed by a 2011 study[viii] based on subjects selecting the best used car from a selection of four cars. Each car was rated in four different categories. Car 1, for example, was described as getting good mileage, shoddy transmission, etc. Car 2 handled poorly etc. But one car had the best attributes, and choosing the best car was how their decisions were measured. In this "easy" situation with only 4 variables, the conscious decisions were 15% better than the unconscious decisions at selecting the best used car. But for complex decisions with 12 variables, unconscious decisions were 42% better than conscious decisions at selecting the best used car.
How do you sell to Mr. Intuitive?
Admittedly, the evidence for the unconscious advantage in decision making for complex products is far from conclusive; however, it's now becoming clear that selling exclusively to Mr. Rational for complex products is limited. If you believe this argument has some merit, then you may wonder how to position your complex product to the unconscious mind?

Although people buy on emotion and justify with logic, a customer's decision to buy is not based on emotion. An emotion is simply the way the unconscious communicates its decision to the conscious mind. So, if you want to influence how a customer feels about your product, instead of appealing to emotions, you must provide the experience that creates the desired emotion.
Experiential Selling: Don't deliberate- simulate
One of the best ways for a customer to experience your complex product is by sharing a customer story. Studies[ix] have proven that a story activates the region of the brain that processes sights, sounds, tastes, and movement.

Using customer scenarios/stories works for precisely the same reasons that flight simulators are better for pilot training than stacks of instructional cue cards. In fact, the shift in pilot training from deliberate to simulate was one of the reasons why the number of accidents due to poor decision making declined by 71% in the 1990s.[x] Because simulators target the dopamine system that improves itself by studying its errors, this system takes advantage of the way the brain naturally learns from experience.

Thus, a salesperson can share a story with a customer, and due to the transportation effect of story, it feels real. It's the next best thing to experiencing it live. It's as if Mr. Intuitive is able to take the salesperson's product out for a virtual test drive, and discover for themselves the unique value of your product . Contrast this approach to a salesperson delivering a factual data dump to Mr. Rational in the form of an 85-slide power point presentation.

Michael Harris is CEO of Insight Demand, and author of Insight Selling.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[i] Interview Mahoney & Zaltman, "The Subconscious Mind of the Consumer (And How To Reach It)" Harvard Business Review, Jan 13th, 2003.

[ii] Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow," p. 13, 2011.

[iii] Cowan, Nelson "The magical number 4 in short-term memory: A reconsideration of mental storage capacity". Behavioral and Brain Sciences, (2001).

[iv] Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow," p. 109-255, 2011.

[v] Bechara, A., Damásio, A. R., Damásio, H., Anderson, S. W. "Insensitivity to future consequences following damage to human prefrontal cortex," Cognition, (1994)

[vi] W Schultz, P Apicella, and T Ljungberg, "Responses of monkey dopamine neurons to reward and conditioned stimuli during successive steps of learning a delayed response task" The Journal of Neuroscience, 1 March 1993

[vii] Michael Gazzaniga, "The Split Brain Revisited, Scientific American," Inc. 1998.

[viii] Mikels, Joseph A.; Maglio, Sam J.; Reed, Andrew E.; Kaplowitz, Lee J., "Should I go with my gut? Investigating the benefits of emotion-focused decision making," Emotion, Vol 11(4), Aug 2011.

[ix] Gerry Everding, "Readers build vivid mental simulations of narrative situations, brain scans suggest," PhysOrg.com, Jan 26, 2009

[x] Susan P. Baker, Yandong Qiang, George W. Rebok, and Guohua Li, "Pilot Error in Air Carrier Mishaps: Longitudinal Trends Among 558 Reports, 1983-2002" Aviat Space Environ Med, Apr 3, 2009.

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Neuroscience Confirms We Buy on Emotion & Justify with Logic & yet We Sell to Mr. Rational & Ignore Mr. Intuitive - Insight Demand Ltd.

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Harvard Business School professor Gerald Zaltman[i] says that 95% of our purchase decision making takes place subconsciously (aka System 1).[ii] Despite widespread agreement amongst neuroscientists that our conscious rational mind plays a minor role in decision making, why do our sales messages to buyers focus almost exclusively on facts and figures?

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The Subconscious Mind of the Consumer (And How To Reach It)

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The Subconscious Mind of the Consumer (And How To Reach It)

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Harvard Business School professor Gerald Zaltman says that 95% of our purchasing decisions take place in the subconscious mind. But how do we reach the subconscious?
From the excellent Working Knowledge corner of Harvard's Business School (Business Research For Business Leaders)

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Harvard Business School professor Gerald Zaltman's latest book, How Customers Think: Essential Insights into the Mind of the Market, delves into the subconscious mind of the consumer-the place where most purchasing decisions are made. The question: How can marketers understand unconscious consumer thinking? HBS Working Knowledge staffer Manda Mahoney questioned Zaltman about the new book, published by Harvard Business School Publishing.

Mahoney: You state that 95 percent of all cognition occurs in the subconscious mind. How can marketers begin to understand behaviors and attitudes of which customers themselves are not aware?

Zaltman: There are several helpful approaches. One is to double check stated beliefs with actual behavior. For example, many consumers report handling competing brands and comparing prices at the point of purchase. However, observations of these same consumers often reveal that they don't even look at alternatives to the chosen brand. Another option uses physiological or response latency measures. These often reveal that what consumers actually believe or think, as measured by unconscious physical reactions, contradicts what they say when asked directly. Another very productive approach is to study the metaphors consumers use to express their thoughts and feelings. This involves in-depth probing in one-on-one interviews for the hidden meanings contained in their metaphors.

Q: The idea of exploring the subconscious of the customer is traditionally linked to advertisers. Is this an expanding advertising strategy, or something different?

Many researchers tell us that one-on-one interviews are superior to focus groups.
- Gerald Zaltman

A: Probing the unconscious mind of the consumer has tremendous value beyond advertising. For example, learning that a communications device or even a personal care product invokes deep thoughts and feelings about social bonding can be very helpful to R&D experts. In the case of a communications device, this suggests that tactile experiences of social bonding be "engineered in" through the design of how the product is gripped in the hand and in the choice of finish in the device's housing material. In the case of a personal care product, colors and scents known to be evocative of social bonding experiences can be used. In both cases, the basic idea of connection is central to the product's value proposition and becomes a more profound basis for developing marketing strategy than, say, technical superiority or long-lasting benefits. While the latter attributes are important, it is because they serve the deeper needs of connection or social bonding.

Q: Your research points to the ineffectiveness of focus groups. What techniques should managers be employing to elicit information from customers?

A: Many researchers tell us that one-on-one interviews are superior to focus groups. That is, even a few conventional one-on-one interviews yield essentially the same data as several focus groups. Additionally, there is now a lot of evidence that personal interviews yield deep insights that can't be obtained from focus groups. So, my preference is to conduct in-depth, one-on-one interviews that are enriched by using various techniques from clinical psychology and sociology. Often, the results of such interviews can be used to design more comprehensive surveys. And properly designed surveys, when subjected to careful statistical analyses, can yield further insights into unconscious consumer thinking.

Q: At what point in the product life cycle are these insights most helpful? Is this a product planning strategy?

No matter how radical a new product is, it will always be perceived initially in terms of some frame of reference.
- Gerald Zaltman

A: The insights offered by methods that probe the unconscious mind are relevant at all stages of the product life cycle. For instance, when introducing a radically new product, it is necessary to understand how consumers currently frame their experience of the problem addressed by the new offering. That is, no matter how radical a new product is, it will always be perceived initially in terms of some frame of reference. It is essential that this frame be understood, especially if it is an inappropriate one detrimental to early trial of the product. For a mature product, insights about the category or a specific brand can lead to modifications that will extend its life and sustain its economic value to the firm. One firm with a very "tired" brand explored consumers' hidden thoughts and feelings and discovered a relevant, basic emotion that had been overlooked by all brands in the category. They were able to connect this emotion with their brand giving it a major sales boost. Other firms use the hidden treasures of the unconscious mind to identify new product opportunities. Using metaphor-elicitation techniques, firms providing farming supplies, home appliances, office systems, and beauty care have identified important unmet needs. R&D departments use information about the architecture of these needs to identify opportunities for new products and services.

Q: What do you say to those who may be upset by the idea that businesses are privy to the inner workings of the human mind?

A: All knowledge can be used in constructive, socially responsible ways just as it can be used harmfully. The more knowledge we acquire, the more we are faced with this dilemma. If we want the opportunity to use knowledge to benefit consumers we should not shy away from learning more about the inner workings of the human mind. This also runs the risk that some people might use that same knowledge in ways we consider inappropriate. Here I think all of us have a special responsibility to making clear, to consumers and managers alike, what we consider appropriate and inappropriate uses of knowledge. This at least will help lessen inadvertent misuse of knowledge.

Q: Are there companies that are ahead of the game? How do these companies use these techniques effectively?

The use of scientific advances requires the imaginative translation of scientific findings into effective practice in the marketplace.
- Gerald Zaltman

A: There are several companies that are ahead of the game in terms of acquiring advanced knowledge about consumer behavior and in using that knowledge to benefit consumers. These firms include McNeil Consumer Health Care, McCann-Erickson, Procter & Gamble, Hallmark, Bank of America, Kraft, Samsung Electronics, IBM, Pfizer, J. Walter Thomson, and General Motors among others. Their use of these techniques range from the development of new product ideas all the way to the repositioning of established brands. One of these firms just recently used the techniques mentioned above to identify an opportunity for a new product line and to guide the actual design of products within that line. The same research was helpful in crafting a communication strategy for the new line and in selecting a name for this new offering.

Q: We hear a lot about how technology is revolutionizing our ability to understand customers. Is this aspect overrated? Is science the future of marketing?

A: Technology is indeed revolutionizing our ability to understand customers. Insights about the workings of the cognitive unconscious including memory, attention, information processing, the nature of human universals, and socially shared cognitions, and the neurobiology of figurative thinking, for instance, have already outdated most thinking and current practices among managers. Many of these advances are the product of advances in research techniques. Still, the use of scientific advances requires the imaginative translation of scientific findings into effective practice in the marketplace. This is the art that goes hand-in-hand with science. Imaginative thinking by managers and market researchers is required to successfully apply insights from metaphor-elicitation and neuro-imaging techniques, for example, to generate helpful new products, more informative communications, and more rewarding in-store experiences.

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The Subconscious Mind of the Consumer (And How To Reach It)

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HBS Working Knowledge: Business Research for Business Leaders

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We perform measurably better when we practice for real.

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We perform measurably better when we practice for real.

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The shift in pilot training from 'deliberate to simulate' was one of the reasons the number of accidents due to poor decision making declined by 71% in the 1990s.

That's because simulators target the dopamine system that improves itself by studying its errors, this system takes advantage of the way the brain naturally learns from experience.

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Abstract

Keywords: airline crashes, pilot error rates, crew interaction, pilot decisions

Commercial aviation has experienced major changes since the early 1980s. Increasing numbers of flights have placed greater demands on pilots, air traffic controllers, and airports. Changes include advanced computers and other technology that have altered pilots' tasks. Pilot training has relied increasingly on flight simulators. Crew resource management has been emphasized to improve communication and interaction among crewmembers ( 3). Beginning in 1997, the majority of commuter flights that had been governed by 14 CFR Part 135 regulations were required to fly under the stricter Part 121 regulations that previously applied only to aircraft designed for 30 or more passengers ( 7).

Many of these changes have been undertaken to reduce the problem of "pilot error," long considered the most prominent contributor to aviation crashes. In an attempt to determine whether the desired beneficial effect has been achieved, we examined the question of whether pilot error has diminished in importance or changed in its characteristics during recent decades. Our primary objective was to identify temporal trends in the prevalence and patterns of pilot error and other factors in air carrier mishaps.

METHOD

Data

This study, part of a larger project that focused on age-associated changes in commercial pilots ( 6), was a case-series analysis of crashes and other mishaps of domestic air carrier flights (14 CFR Part 121), both scheduled and nonscheduled, that occurred during 1983 - 2002. The mishaps were identified from National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) records. The NTSB is responsible for investigating transportation mishaps that occur in the United States.

The NTSB defines an aviation accident as an event associated with aircraft operation resulting in serious injury, death within 30 d, or damage to the aircraft requiring major repair or component replacement. Although the term 'crash' is preferred by most injury prevention professionals, the present study uses the term "mishaps" (i.e., 'accidents' as defined by the NTSB) because some injury-producing events do not involve crashes, but are either encounters with turbulence or events while the aircraft is on the ground and not moving. Turbulence in flight was classified by the NTSB as an "accident" if it resulted in serious injury.

Data gathered in aviation investigations are recorded on the Factual Report Aviation form (NTSB Form 6120.4), which includes coded data describing the circumstances and probable causes of each mishap as well as a narrative summary. Records for all air carrier mishaps between 1983 and 2002 were reviewed by a project consultant (an experienced commercial pilot and flight instructor), who coded the circumstances, contributing factors, and pilot errors that were identified in the NTSB report.

Denominator data on the number of flights (departures) were obtained from the NTSB website ( 6 ) and NTSB personnel. The number of flights was preferred to flight hours as a denominator because flight hours are greatly influenced by the large proportion of hours spent at high altitudes, where mishaps are not common. In contrast, the number of flights reflects the more hazardous periods near or on the ground.

Analysis

The outcome measure of primary interest was the rate of air carrier mishaps per 10 million flights. To counteract the problem of numbers that would be too small for meaningful analysis, we divided the two decades into four 5-yr periods and calculated mishap rates for each period. Analyses first addressed the question of whether the rate of air carrier mishaps, as a whole, had changed during 1983 -2002. The proportions and rates of mishaps involving pilot error, mechanical failure, turbulence, and bad weather were then determined. Pilot errors were analyzed in relation to the phase of flight in which the mishap occurred.

Secondly, we examined longitudinal trends in the overall rate of mishaps involving pilot error, as well as trends in rates for the major categories of pilot error: carelessness, poor decisions, mishandling aircraft kinetics, mishandling wind or runway conditions, and poor crew interaction. As a measure of the severity of crashes and other mishaps, the case fatality rate was calculated as the percent of crashes that resulted in death of the pilot-in-command. Including all mishaps that were fatal to anyone in the numerator would have distorted the proportion because of the great variation in the number of passengers. In order to examine longitudinal trends in the outcomes of interest, observed crashes were compared to expected crashes using Chi-square tests. The data analyses were performed using Statistical Analysis Software (SAS), version 9.1 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC) and Intercooled STATA 6 (StataCorp, College Station, TX).

RESULTS

The NTSB reported 604 'accidents' (i.e., exclusive of terrorist or criminal actions) involving domestic air carriers in the United States during 1983 -2002. We included 558 (92%) in our analysis. Of the remaining 46 mishaps, 39 were excluded due to missing information and 7 for miscellaneous reasons. The rate of mishaps over the 20-yr period averaged 33 per 10 million flights, with no consistent longitudinal trend ().

TABLE I

Bad weather, excluding turbulence, played a role in 265 (47%) mishaps, clear air turbulence in 138 (25%), and mechanical failure in 117 (21%). The proportion of mishaps in which weather was a factor declined slightly, by 17%. No statistically significant longitudinal trends were evident in any of these circumstances.

Pilot error was noted in 180 mishaps (32%). The percentage of mishaps that involved pilot error declined from 42% in 1983 - 87 to 36% in 1988 - 92, 31% in 1993 - 97, and 25% in 1998 - 2002 ( P = 0.02), an overall decrease of 40%. In 56 mishaps, at least two types of pilot error were noted. The most common types of pilot error were carelessness (26% of errors), poor decisions (23%), mishandling aircraft kinetics (21%), and poor crew interaction (11%) ().

TABLE II

Carelessness is illustrated by a case in which the pilot-in-command omitted the check for hydraulics when reading the checklist prior to landing. As a result, there was no hydraulic pressure for the landing gear or flaps and the DC9 made a gear-up landing. Poor crew interaction was evident in a hard landing following an unstabilized approach, during which the copilot twice urged the captain not to land without first executing a go-around; the captain ignored him. An example of mishandling aircraft kinetics was poor response to a bounced landing. Flawed decisions were exemplified by a case in which the aircraft had been put on hold because weather at the destination did not meet minimum criteria for landing. When the weather cleared, air traffic control asked whether they could make the approach from their altitude. The pilot-in-command made a poor decision, saying " yes " although the aircraft was too high. As a result, the airplane came in too high and too fast, landed 7000 feet down the runway, and ran off the end of the runway.

During the period studied, the rate of mishaps related to pilot error declined by 40%, from 14.2 to 8.5 per 10 million flights ( P = 0.02) (). No trend was evident in the rate of mishaps related to carelessness or to mishandling aircraft kinetics. Pilot error categorized as flawed decision declined from 6.2 to 1.8 per 10 million flights, a 71% reduction ( P = 0.006) (). The most common type of flawed decisions, those related to weather, declined by 76%, from 4.6 to 1.1 per 10 million flights ( P = 0.0001). Poor crew interaction declined from 2.8 to 0.9 per 10 million flights, a 68% reduction ( P = 0.003). Mishandled wind conditions or runway conditions declined by 78%, from 2.5 to 0.54 per 10 million flights ( P = 0.03).

The proportion of mishaps involving pilot error varied with phase of flight (). Pilot error was most common (44 - 64% of mishaps) during taxiing, takeoff, final approach, and landing. Pilot error was least common while the aircraft was being pushed back from the gate (11%) or standing, i.e., not in motion (9%). Examples of events while aircraft were not in motion included aircraft struck by a ground vehicle, ramp personnel struck by a jet blast or propeller, and injuries during a precautionary evacuation.

TABLE III

Three phases of flight showed significant trends (). The rate of mishaps during takeoff declined by 70%, from 5.3 to 1.6 per 10 million flights ( P = 0.01). Mishaps while aircraft were not in motion more than doubled, from a rate of 2.5 to 6.0 per 10 million flights ( P = 0.03). Mishaps during pushback increased from none in 1983-87 to 3.1 per 10 million in 1998-2002 ( P = 0.02).

The case fatality rate for pilots (i.e., the percent of pilots-in-command who were killed) declined steadily during the period, from 11.8% in 1983-87 to 1.6% in 1998 - 2002, an 86% reduction ( P = 0.002). No changes in pilot error rates were apparent in association with the major regulatory change in 1997 that included most Part 135 flights under Part 121 regulations.

DISCUSSION

This report documents an impressive 40% reduction in the rate of air carrier mishaps involving pilot error between 1983 and 2002 as well as a 40% reduction in the proportion of mishaps that involved pilot error. By defining specific types of pilot error and by measuring changes in incidence per 10 million flights, the study offers insight into where progress has (and has not) been made in recent decades. Much of the decrease in pilot-error mishaps was associated with improved decision making by pilots. In particular, weather-related mishaps involving pilot error declined by 76%. This reduction cannot be explained by better weather patterns during flights, since the proportion of mishaps in which weather was a factor declined by only 17% over the 20 yr studied.

The decreasing trend in pilot-error mishaps probably reflects, in part, advances in technology such as cockpit displays that permit pilots to avoid threatening weather and to determine their exact location in relation to airports, runways, etc. Emphasis in recent years on crew resource management has likely been another important factor in the 68% reduction in mishaps involving poor crew coordination.

High-profile airline disasters generally lead to recommendations by the NTSB for changes in training, flight procedures, and aircraft design that might avert future crashes and deaths, for example by improving flight crew training with regard to weather and crew resource management ( 9). In illustration, a crash in 1987 of a DC9 at the Detroit Metropolitan Airport resulted in an NTSB recommendation that airline operators "emphasize rigorous adherence to prescribed checklist procedures" ( 10). In addition to making changes prompted by crashes, NTSB recommendations, and FAA regulations, airlines have created databases that analyze flights, identifying threats to safety such as adverse weather (the most common threat), radio congestion, and operational pressures, and indicating whether the flight crews identified and managed the threats ( 13). The results help airlines to identify and address problems within their operations.

Li and colleagues, in a study based on NTSB-coded data, found that during 1983 -1996 pilot error was cited by NTSB investigators as a probable cause in 34% of air carrier crashes ( 4 ). In the present study, we found that in 1998-2002, pilot error was associated with only 25% of mishaps. This encouraging trend is not likely to be an artifact since coding was consistent throughout the study: a single researcher who was a commercial pilot read and evaluated NTSB briefs of each of the 558 crashes.

Our finding that 22% of errors in 1983 -2002 were related to poor decisions by pilots is consistent with the results of analyses of 44 air carrier mishaps in 1990 - 1996 using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) ( 14 ). In their review, Wiegmann and Shappell identified decision errors in 25% of mishaps that were at least partly attributable to the aircrew. Their investigation excluded some cases included in our analysis such as turbulence-related mishaps and any mishaps with no pilot error. Several of their major categories were similar to ours: decision errors, crew-resource mismanagement, and skill-based errors (which would have included our categories of mishandling aircraft kinetics and mishandling wind and runway conditions). Although the authors reported finding no improvements during the 7 yr studied, the relatively short time period would have made it hard to identify a longitudinal trend.

The severity of mishaps apparently decreased during our study period, judging from the 86% reduction in pilot fatality rates. The reported number of passenger deaths and serious injuries per million passenger emplanements also declined ( 8). The increase in survival rates in airline crashes may reflect, in part, improved crashworthiness associated with changes in aircraft design, including changes intended to reduce the risk of fire, which is the major determinant of crash survivability ( 5 ). Probably the most important influence on crash severity and the likelihood of fatality is the phase of flight in which a mishap occurs; the increase in mishaps while aircraft were standing or during pushback would have reduced the proportion of mishaps likely to cause the death of a pilot.

The overall air carrier mishap rate remained stable during the 20-yr study period, with the decrease in pilot-error mishaps offset by an increase in mishaps in which pilot error was not evident. This does not mean that no one made errors. Rather, the increase in mishaps on the ground suggests that an increasing number of mishaps may have involved ground personnel and air traffic control. In recent years, the number of flight operations has increased with relatively little increase in airport capacity ( 11), resulting in greater density of air traffic at airports and a situation that is increasingly challenging to all airport workers ( 2). Research based upon airline data indicated that air traffic control problems such as radio congestion were second only to adverse weather conditions in their contribution to threats to the safety of flights of air carriers ( 13).

A special strength of this study is the provision of rates, using available information on the numbers of flights (departures) of air carrier flights ( 7). Too often, aviation research emphasizes differences in proportions rather than rates, because relevant denominator data are usually unavailable. Unlike rate calculations, proportional analyses have the disadvantage that if one component decreases, there is a corresponding increase elsewhere.

A limitation of the study is that the mishaps analyzed were 8% fewer than the total number of domestic air carrier mishaps recorded by the NTSB during the 20-yr study period. Therefore, it is probable that the rates presented are approximately 8% lower than actual rates. This is unlikely to bias the results, since there was no indication of any relationship between pilot-error mishaps and the missing data that caused exclusion of 8% of cases.

The results are specific to the years 1983-2002 and, therefore, cannot be generalized to more recent years. However, recent rates reported by the NTSB ( 7) indicate that airline crashes during 2003 -06 decreased compared to earlier years. It is possible that the decrease in crash rates since 2002 is associated with the decline in pilot-error mishaps identified in this study. Our analysis is limited to errors by pilots and does not include the role of organizational factors and supervision. These important determinants of aviation safety are among the human factors analyzed and discussed in a recent report by Shappell and colleagues ( 12).

It is noteworthy that during the two decades when the rate of mishaps involving pilot error declined by 40%, there was no decline in the overall rate of air carrier mishaps per 10 million flights ( ) despite the fact that part way through the study period, in 1997, scheduled commuter flights with 10 or more passenger seats came under air carrier regulations (i.e., 14 CFR Part 121). The regulatory change might have been expected to increase the Part 121 crash rate because previously the rate for scheduled commuters had been substantially higher than the rate for Part 121 flights ( 1). In the decade prior to the 1997 regulatory change, for example, the accident rate per 10 million flights was 57 for scheduled commuters and 35 for airlines ( 7). It is possible that aircraft carrying fewer than 10 passengers, which were not included in the change to coverage by 14 CFR 121, were largely responsible for the high rates associated with Part 135 operations.

Conclusion

Improved decision making by pilots and better crew coordination are important trends that may reflect improvements in training as well as technological advances that facilitate good decisions. The decrease in pilot-error mishaps was offset by an increase in mishaps in which pilot error was not implicated. The increase in mishaps while aircraft are not in motion or being pushed back deserves attention.

Acknowledgments

This research was funded by Grant R0AG13642 from the National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health, and by the Center for Injury Research and Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Grant CCR302486). The authors thank Margaret W. Lamb of Sunshine Aviation Safety Studies for reviewing and coding NTSB reports. We thank Carol Floyd of the National Transportation Safety Board for assisting with data acquisition.

References

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Pilot Error in Air Carrier Mishaps: Longitudinal Trends Among 558 Reports, 1983-2002

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Keywords: airline crashes, pilot error rates, crew interaction, pilot decisions Commercial aviation has experienced major changes since the early 1980s. Increasing numbers of flights have placed greater demands on pilots, air traffic controllers, and airports. Changes include advanced computers and other technology that have altered pilots' tasks.

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We have the capacity to hold about 3-5 chunks of information in our short-term memory

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We have the capacity to hold about 3-5 chunks of information in our short-term memory

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The magical number 4 in short-term memory: A reconsideration of mental storage capacity | Behavioral and Brain Sciences | Cambridge Core

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This article has been cited by the following publications. This list is generated based on data provided by CrossRef. Sharwood Smith, Michael and Truscott, John 1920. The Multilingual Mind. Turchi, Janita and Sarter, Martin 2000. Cortical cholinergic inputs mediate processing capacity: effects of 192 IgG-saporin-induced lesions on olfactory span performance.

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Studies have proven that a story activates the region of the brain that processes sights, sounds, tastes, and movement.

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Studies have proven that a story activates the region of the brain that processes sights, sounds, tastes, and movement.

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Click the brain scans to view a color-coded chart describing changes in brain activation during the reading of a brief narrative.

(PhysOrg.com) -- A new brain-imaging study is shedding light on what it means to "get lost" in a good book - suggesting that readers create vivid mental simulations of the sounds, sights, tastes and movements described in a textual narrative while simultaneously activating brain regions used to process similar experiences in real life.

"Psychologists and neuroscientists are increasingly coming to the conclusion that when we read a story and really understand it, we create a mental simulation of the events described by the story," says Jeffrey M. Zacks, study co-author and director of the Dynamic Cognition Laboratory at Washington University in St. Louis.

The study, forthcoming in the journal Psychological Science, is one of a series in which Zacks and colleagues use functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to track real-time brain activity as study participants read and process individual words and short stories.

Nicole Speer, lead author of this study, says findings demonstrate that reading is by no means a passive exercise. Rather, readers mentally simulate each new situation encountered in a narrative. Details about actions and sensation are captured from the text and integrated with personal knowledge from past experiences. These data are then run through mental simulations using brain regions that closely mirror those involved when people perform, imagine, or observe similar real-world activities.

"These results suggest that readers use perceptual and motor representations in the process of comprehending narrated activity, and these representations are dynamically updated at points where relevant aspects of the situation are changing," says Speer, now a research associate with The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) Mental Health Program in Boulder, Colo. "Readers understand a story by simulating the events in the story world and updating their simulation when features of that world change."

In addition to Zacks, an associate professor of psychology in Arts and Sciences and of radiology in the School of Medicine at WUSTL, other co-authors for this study are Jeremy R. Reynolds, assistant professor of psychology at the University of Denver in Denver, Colo.; and Khena M. Swallow, a post-doctoral associate in psychology at the University of Minnesota. Reynolds, Swallow and Speer all graduated from the psychology doctoral program at WUSTL in the last several years.

Reading, one of the most important skills human beings can acquire, has been difficult to study using fMRI because researchers seldom have access to expensive scanning equipment for long periods of time. Reading long passages of text also poses challenges because participants must remain very still for the scans to be effective. In an effort to minimize eye movements, participants are immobilized within the brain-scanning device and presented with text one-word-at-a-time on an adjacent computer screen.

Previous research has shown that when people read isolated words or phrases involving vivid visual or motor contents, brain activity in sensory and motor brain regions specifically related to those contents increased. But this result might not be typical of normal reading - in the previous studies there was no story to try to understand, and participants sometimes had to make an explicit judgment about each word or phrase. In this study, Speer and colleagues used fMRI to look for evidence of mental simulation during the reading of extended stories. Each participant read four stories of less than 1500 words excerpted from a simple, 1940s-era book about the daily activities of a young boy. Participants were shown text passages on a computer screen that displayed one word at a time; reading all four stories took most participants about 40 minutes.

The researchers had carefully coded the stories so that they knew when important features of the story were changing. The features had been chosen based on previous studies of narrative reading, and were known to be important for comprehension. The researchers hypothesized that some brain regions would increase at several different feature changes, but that other brain regions would be selectively activated by only one feature change. This is what was found.

For example, changes in the objects a character interacted with (e.g., "pulled a light cord") were associated with increases in a region in the frontal lobes known to be important for controlling grasping motions. Changes in characters' locations (e.g., "went through the front door into the kitchen") were associated with increases in regions in the temporal lobes that are selectively activate when people view pictures of spatial scenes.

Overall, the data supported the view that readers construct mental simulations of events when reading stories.

The Speer et al. paper extends results reported by this group previously in Psychological Science. In the previous study, the researchers asked readers to divide the stories into meaningful events after reading them in the MRI scanner. The researchers then asked which parts of the brain increased in activity at event boundaries. The mental simulation results reported here line up strikingly with those regions. This suggests that readers construct a mental simulation as they read, and then divide that simulation into meaningful events when important features change.

Provided by Washington University in St. Louis

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Readers build vivid mental simulations of narrative situations, brain scans suggest

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
(PhysOrg.com) -- A new brain-imaging study is shedding light on what it means to "get lost" in a good book - suggesting that readers create vivid mental simulations of the sounds, sights, tastes and movements described in a textual narrative while simultaneously activating brain regions used to process similar experiences in real life.

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