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Permafrost and the Global Carbon Cycle - NOAA Arctic

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The Arctic continues to warm at a rate that is currently twice as fast as the global average. Warming is causing perennially-frozen ground (permafrost) to thaw, with permafrost in many locations currently reaching record high temperatures. Organic carbon contained in soils of the permafrost region represent a climate-sensitive carbon reservoir that is affected by warming air and ground temperatures and permafrost thaw.

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Since permafrost contains lots of organic matter like frozen plants and animals within, it holds an enormous amount of carbon.

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The Arctic Institute - Center for Circumpolar Security Studies

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Thermokarst lakes, like this one in Alaska, form in the Arctic when permafrost thaws. Photo: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Permafrost thaw is one of the world's most pressing climate problems, already disrupting lifestyles, livelihoods, economies, and ecosystems in the north, and threatening to spill beyond the boundaries of the Arctic as our planet continues to warm. To examine the effects of permafrost degradation, and increase our understanding of what this phenomenon means for the future of the region (and the world), The Arctic Institute's new two-part permafrost series aims to analyze the topic from scientific, security, legal, and personal perspectives. The second installment of our series features eight new articles on permafrost degradation and its effects on Arctic life, research, and the world at large. But before, check out the seven articles from our first installment, starting with the Intro.

The Arctic Institute Permafrost Series 2021

Siberia, like much of the world, had a year like no other. Stories about an unprecedented six-month heatwave and raging wildfires throughout Russia's Northern regions filtered into the mainstream media. These alarming headlines reminded the world that climate change and its effects are being felt now, especially in the Far North. The Arctic, which is warming at least two times faster than the rest of the world, is a harbinger signaling dire consequences if we cannot keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Hidden underneath these extreme events is a quieter but no less pressing threat that could prevent us from meeting that goal; one that may prove pivotal if we hope to curb global carbon emissions: thawing permafrost.

In order to be considered permafrost, the ground must remain at or below freezing for at least two consecutive years. It traditionally acts as a "carbon sink," where carbon has been captured and stored. Scientists estimate that this layer contains approximately 1,400 gigatons of frozen carbon, the equivalent of four times the amount humans have emitted since the Industrial Revolution and two times as much as is currently contained in the environment. If this captured carbon were allowed to escape into the atmosphere, it would contribute to what may already be a runaway greenhouse effect that could render even the most ambitious attempts to cut global emissions ineffective. Essentially, we could make every necessary sacrifice and still see global temperatures rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius if the Arctic becomes a major carbon source instead of remaining a carbon sink. A recent NASA-funded study suggests that this shift is already happening due to winter soil emissions. According to Sue Natali of the Woods Hole Research Center, carbon emissions at individual sites are surpassing carbon uptake. It remains to be seen if this transition is occurring throughout the entire Arctic region. This development makes understanding and incorporating permafrost thaw emissions into the global carbon budget even more pressing.

Despite the potential ramifications of emissions from permafrost thaw, the global carbon budget, which balances the carbon dioxide (CO ₂) output from human activities with the input or storage in carbon sinks, does not fully incorporate this emission source. Ensuring that permafrost thaw is included in this calculation is critical in making our current goals reachable. Fortunately, the recent events in Siberia are bringing a new level of awareness to the leading role that permafrost will play in our future success or failure in staying below 1.5 degrees of warming. In examining these events, we can better understand the relationship between extreme weather, its impact on permafrost, and the consequences if the international community fails to account for this looming threat.

The six-month heatwave in Siberia contributed to raising the world's average temperature to the hottest on record. From January through the end of June, Siberia was subjected to record high temperatures. One of the world's coldest towns, Verkhoyansk, saw 100-degree days. According to Zeke Hausfather, the Director of Climate and Energy at the Breakthrough Institute in Oakland, California, Siberia's temperatures were "extreme no matter how you look at them.". These temperatures concerned scientists because of their potential to increase the rate of thaw in the Arctic. High, prolonged temperatures melt more ice and snow, which expose the darker sub-layers. Without the layer of white snow and the protective albedo effect it provides, the soil begins to thaw. This, in turn, exposes more dark soil, which leads to further melting and so on. As the thaw moves deeper into the soil, nutrients are released, allowing plants and shrubs to grow, darkening the surface even more. As this positive, self-reinforcing feedback continues, more CO ₂ is emitted. Carbon dioxide is a significant contributor to global warming, resulting in more extreme weather and other climate events that amplify the cycle. Scientists fear that these local feedback loops will contribute to a global loop with disastrous, irreversible consequences. Unfortunately, high temperatures have also led to other devastating events in the Arctic.

In Siberia, these protracted, unusually high temperatures have resulted in conditions that have contributed to extreme wildfires. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Earth Observatory, Siberia's 2020 fire season released more carbon dioxide in June and July than any other fire season since 2003. These wildfires burn off the organic layers of moss and other decomposing plants that form on top of permafrost-affected soils. That organic matter typically acts as a blanket in the summertime to keep the darker, deeper soil insulated from the heat of the sun. However, the deeper layers of permafrost, having already thawed more than usual during the winter months from a reduced albedo effect, are now more susceptible to thaw in layers that would typically stay frozen even in the summer months. When wildfires burn off that summertime insulation, the initial loss of insulating materials kicks off a sequence of local feedback loops, amplifying permafrost thaw. Dr. Charles Koven, an Earth System Scientist for the University of California, Berkeley, notes that the permafrost research community's ability to incorporate extreme events like wildfires into their climate models is limited. However, there is also a basic agreement that "there is a possibility that these extreme events are amplifying and speeding up things."

There is a growing consensus among scientists and policymakers that this critical emissions source needs to be better represented in our climate models. Many in the permafrost research community, those who have been studying it and speaking up about it for years, worry that despite our best efforts and sacrifices, we may not be able to keep global warming below the goal of 1.5 degrees unless we consider these feedback loops. Dr. Koven estimates that about 100 gigatons of CO 2 will need to be subtracted from the current global carbon budget to account for these emissions. While there is still significant uncertainty concerning the amount of CO ₂ held in permafrost, the impact of extreme events, and the rate of thaw, it is vital that the international community not ignore the situation until the models are improved. With permafrost thaw incorporated into the global carbon budget, policymakers will be better able to make decisions based on a more realistic picture of the actions countries will need to take to meet their carbon emission goals. Even so, including estimated emissions from permafrost thaw will just be the first step. Ongoing international cooperation will be essential in developing more effective observation networks and funding additional research in this critical area.

While the extreme events seen in Siberia last year seem ominous, they also present an opportunity. In recent years, scientists have seen more substantial interest in the Arctic generally and permafrost degradation in particular. With that may come more investment, international collaboration, and research that will be critical in reducing the current and future impact of permafrost thaw on the climate.

Erin Flanagan is a geopolitical analyst. The views expressed herein are those of the author and are not to be construed as official or reflecting the views of the Commandant or of the U.S. Coast Guard.

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The Global Carbon Budget and Permafrost Feedback Loops in the Arctic

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Environmental risks posed by permafrost feedback loops are immense, but those are not fully incorporated into the global carbon budget.

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The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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from Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Rapid thawing of permafrost has accelerated a public health crisis in Alaska by disrupting access to clean water, sanitation resources, and basic health infrastructure.

Executive Summary

Rapid thawing of permafrost has accelerated a public health crisis in Alaska by disrupting access to clean water, sanitation resources, and basic health infrastructure. For example:

Permafrost thaw-induced damage to hospitals, roads, and runways has disrupted the delivery of critical medical services and supplies.

Destabilization of housing and water infrastructure has created hazardous living conditions for children and families.

Thaw-induced disruptions to fishing, hunting, and subsistence practices have threatened food security and imposed barriers to practicing traditional cultures.

As this concept note explains, these outcomes are not inevitable or irreversible. Rather, strategic investments by the U.S. federal government, Alaska state agencies, Tribal government, and other community-based entities can help to bolster financial and technical assistance programs and infrastructure that will better enable those affected by permafrost thaw to adapt and build resilience to public health disruptions.

Public Health Infrastructure Governance in Alaska

Scales of Management

Key Institutions

Government

Federal

Denali Commission, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Indian Health Service, U.S. Department of Interior, U.S. Economic Development Administration, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Center for Disease Control

State

Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, Alaska Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development, Rural Utility Business Advisory Program (RUBA), Division of Public Health

Borough/Municipal

Local government agencies (manage roads, landfills, water and sewer)

Tribal

Tribal councils

Non-Governmental

Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium (ANTHC), Alaska Municipal League, Rural Community Assistance Corporation, Alaska Rural Water Association, Youth Alliance for a Healthier Alaska, Alaska Native Health Board

Background

What is permafrost and permafrost thaw?

Permafrost, rich in stored carbon, is continuously frozen ground that underlies ~85% of Alaska's land area. As permafrost thaws, the softening ground can destabilize local ecosystems and cause disruptions to surface and subsurface infrastructure, including homes, buildings, roads, and public utilities. In worst-case scenarios, permafrost thaw and compounding erosion and flooding can result in permanent land collapse, or ' usteq' in Yup'ik. Nearly 170,000 people, representing 192 communities in Alaska, live in permafrost zones,, and are consequently affected by the direct impacts of permafrost thaw. There are 229 federally recognized Tribes in Alaska, each with distinct cultural practices and ways of life that are particularly impacted by these changes.

How does permafrost thaw compromise human health outcomes?

Permafrost thaw puts thousands of Alaskans at serious risk of water contamination, subsistence food shortages, hospital closures, severe mold exposure, and other physical and mental health challenges. Permafrost thaw also threatens Native Alaskans' access to natural resources and traditional practices, including firewood gathering, hunting, fishing, and trapping.

These consequences are not only of immediate concern to affected populations but signify a violation of fundamental health freedoms to which the global population is entitled. Successful safeguards of such health freedoms are those that meet four essential criteria: availability, accessibility, acceptability, and quality. Health services must be available in sufficient quantities with functioning facilities, accessible without financial or physical barriers, acceptable to cultural practices, and meeting standards of quality for safety and effectiveness. Despite efforts by the U.S. federal government, Alaska state government, and Tribal governments and entities to implement such safeguards via institutional and policy frameworks, permafrost thaw threatens all four pillars of this right to health.

As this concept note explains, the effects of permafrost thaw contribute to discrete and measurable disruptions to the physical infrastructure and natural ecosystems that uphold environmental health in Alaska.

A Deeper Dive: Health Impact Areas and Policy Considerations

While the health impacts of permafrost thaw are extensive, this report will focus on some of the most acute health hazards, including contamination of safe drinking water, disruption of access to hospitals and healthcare, and contribution to food and housing insecurity. The included considerations for policymakers highlight opportunities to combat these challenges using government and community resources.

Unsafe Water and Sanitation

Permafrost thaw can pollute drinking water sources and damage sewage and sanitation infrastructure, exposing rural Alaskans to waterborne and water-washed diseases, and reducing the availability, accessibility, and quality of health services.

Drinking Water Contamination: In Alaska's Brooks Range, thawing permafrost leached toxic metals and sediments from the soil into the watershed, exposing the community's water supply to iron and toxic metals. Severe erosion from permafrost thaw also damaged the water treatment plant in Noatak, endangering the community's drinking water supply. In Quinhagak, permafrost thaw has destabilized the local sewage lagoon, which is a landfill used to dispose of human waste in communities without piped water, and repairs to the lagoon may cost $6m. The breach of the lagoon threatens human waste contamination of Kuskokwim Bay and Arolik and Kanektok Rivers, a vital subsistence fishing ground for the community.

Waterborne Disease: Ground destabilization from permafrost thaw has collapsed above-ground water distribution systems, reducing access to in-home piped water and leaving rural Alaskan families to self-haul water and human waste. In Nunapicuaq (Nunapitchuk), the village's only water treatment facility is leaning at 20 degrees, threatening to collapse and leave the village with no treated water for dishes, laundry, and flushing toilets. Alaskan families exposed to self-hauling practices have more hospital visits for respiratory and skin infections, and reduced water supply drives one of the highest global rates of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among Alaska Native children.

Considerations for Policymakers

Financial and technical assistance programs can help water and utility providers maintain and upgrade treatment facilities, conduct quality assessments, and publish inspection reports.

Public workshops and multi-generational classroom trainings can build community awareness of best practices in safe water treatment, testing, and usage.

Reduced Access to Healthcare

Ground destabilization from permafrost thaw has nearly collapsed hospitals and health clinics across Alaska, reducing access to and availability of already limited health services and supplies.

Hospital Repairs: In Nome, permafrost thaw carved a "cave" beneath the foundation of Norton Sound Regional Hospital, requiring specialized emergency repairs to prevent the building from collapsing. Permafrost thaw in Quinhagak is also causing the community's only health clinic to sink into the ground, requiring an estimated ~$2.5m for relocation efforts.

Medical Supplies: Hospitals in rural Alaska depend on air delivery of critical medical supplies and equipment. Permafrost destabilization of local airport runways and roadways has temporarily severed hospitals in Nome from vital supplies.

Food Insecurity

In both Native and non-Native communities, the high costs of imported food make local foods a significant source of nutrients and energy, contributing up to 50% of energy intake in some regions. In Alaska Native cultures, subsistence foods are also central to culture, identity, and well-being. Salmon, in particular, carry a distinct spiritual significance in Native practices., "Wild foods" that are hunted, fished, or gathered are the primary local food source in Alaska. Permafrost thaw disrupts migration patterns of food species, coastal access, and food storage capacity, threatening the availability and accessibility of natural food sources and impeding cultural subsistence practices.

Hunting: Land mammals, which account for over one-fifth of wild foods consumed by rural Alaskans, have adjusted their migration patterns around landscape distortions and lake drainage from permafrost thaw. These migration changes jeopardize food security for subsistence hunters by adding uncertainty to locating and hunting animals.

Fishing and Marine Hunting: Approximately 70% of wild foods consumed by rural Alaskans are salmon, other fish, and marine mammals, but coastal permafrost thaw has destabilized coastlines, making traditional fishing and marine hunting areas inaccessible. As a result, coastal subsistence has become an increasingly dangerous and limited activity for Alaskans.

Food Storage: Permafrost has traditionally served as a natural food storage cellar with sufficient capacity for large community hunts. Permafrost thaw can reduce cellars' cooling capacity and cause fish and meat to spoil, exposing communities to food-borne illness.

Considerations for Policymakers

Trainings on ethical harvesting of traditional and medicinal plants, with consent of communities, can raise awareness of the cultural and practical significance of wild foods.

Food assistance programs are a critical source of free or low-cost groceries and produce for families experiencing disruptions in the availability of subsistence foods.

Storytelling of traditional subsistence practices, including outdoor food storage, can help document the impacts of ongoing environmental changes.

Unsafe Housing Conditions

Permafrost thaw has caused catastrophic damage to homes by collapsing or sinking foundations, exposing families to mold and physical safety hazards. As homes become more costly to safely build on permafrost, families are overcrowding into multigenerational homes or living in existing unsafe homes.

Mold and Cold Exposure: Permafrost thaw in Nunapicuaq has destabilized home foundations to the point that walls and floorboards are cracking and gaping. These openings allow rain, snow, and wind to leak in, exposing residents to freezing cold and creating damp conditions for severe mold to flourish. Residents have developed chronic respiratory illness from mold exposure.

Overcrowding: The shortage of stable land to build homes combined with the high costs of building permafrost-resilient foundations has contributed to housing shortages and severe home overcrowding. In Northwest Alaska, 39% of homes are overcrowded by Housing and Urban Development (HUD) standards. Overcrowding can increase stress, strain relationships, and deteriorate sleep quality and mental health.

Considerations for Policymakers

Indoor air quality monitoring projects organized by community-based health organizations can bring greater public awareness to households hazards such as mold.

Regular monitoring and evaluation of in-home environmental threats can help reduce risk and exposure to health hazards.

Energy efficiency evaluations, infrastructure upgrades, and regular maintenance can help insure homes are sufficiently insulated from the cold.

Compounding Health Effects

The thawing of permafrost in Alaska poses multiple threats to public health, and policymakers must support programs, policies, and initiatives that safeguard the fundamental human right to health. However, permafrost thaw is only one of many public health challenges facing Alaskans. An increasing health risk to Alaskans comes from wildfire smoke exposure. Alaskans exposed to wildfire smoke had higher cardiorespiratory visits to the emergency room both during and several days after exposure. Alaskans living in permafrost zones also experience mental health challenges from existential anxiety about the current and future state of environmental conditions in Alaska as well as the mental health strains of housing overcrowding. These health risks are compounding stressors for public health. Finally, while some permafrost in Siberia was discovered to have ancient frozen pathogens, harmful pathogens have not yet been discovered in Alaska, and scientists have determined these risks to human health to be low.

Conclusion

The public health hazards of permafrost thaw are mediated by damage to both the natural environment and critical water, sanitation, housing, and healthcare infrastructure. Programs and advocacy to build infrastructure resilience and protect natural resources can help guarantee Alaskans' rights to health. Community-based organizations like the Alaskan Native Tribal Health Consortium (ANTHC) are leading these efforts, but additional federal and state resources should help accelerate adaptation and resilience to permafrost thaw and stop the permafrost public health crisis in Alaska.

About this Concept Note

This concept note was prepared by Aruni Ranaweera and Tessa Varvares for Permafrost Pathways. Woodwell Climate Research Center launched the Permafrost Pathways project in 2022 with funding through the TED Audacious Project-a collaborative funding initiative catalyzing big, bold solutions to the world's most urgent challenges. Through partnerships with the Arctic Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School, the Alaska Institute for Justice, and the Alaska Native Science Commission, and in collaboration with Alaska Native Tribes, Permafrost Pathways seeks to harness the combined expertise of leading research institutions and on-the-ground organizations specializing in climate science, policy, and environmental justice to inform and develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to address permafrost thaw.

Ranaweera, Aruni and Tessa Varvares. "Permafrost Thaw in Alaska: An Overlooked Climate-Health Crisis." Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, April 10, 2025

Copy to Clipboard

1. "Global policy positions on permafrost and wildfire mitigation and adaptation," Woodwell Climate Research Center, June 15, 2024.

2. "Permafrost," Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

3. "Alaska Population Overview: 2017 Estimates," Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, November 2018.

4. Ramage, J., Jungsberg, L., Wang, S. et al., "Population living on permafrost in the Arctic," Population and Environment, 43, 22-38 (2021).

5. "Alaska Region," Bureau of Indian Affairs.

6. "The Unmet Needs of Environmentally Threatened Alaska Native Villages: Assessment and Recommendations," Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, January 2024.

7. "Human Rights," World Health Organization, December 1, 2023.

8. O'Donnell, J.A., Carey, M.P., Koch, J.C. et al., "Metal mobilization from thawing permafrost to aquatic ecosystems is driving rusting of Arctic streams," Communications Earth & Environment, 5, 268 (2024).

9. Naiden, A., "Escalating erosion prompts move to repair Notak's water system, secure fuel tanks and protect airport," The Arctic Sounder, October 3, 2024.

10. Shallenberger, K., "For Quinhagak, climate change means they may have to move," Alaska Public Media, June 17, 2019.

11. McCarthy, W., "Nunapitchuk's laundromat and water treatment building is tilting precariously," KYUK, August 25, 2022.

12. Hennessy, T. W., and Bressler, J. M., "Improving health in the Arctic region through safe and affordable access to household running water and sewer services: an Arctic Council initiative," International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 75(1) (2016).

13. Wenger, J., Zulz, T., Bruden, D., et al., "Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Alaskan Children," The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 29(3), 251-256, March 2010.

14. Mcdonald, D., "Emergency Beneath the Hospital," Spray Foam Magazine, November 28, 2018.

15. Shallenberger, "For Quinhagak."

16. Berton, H., and Ringman, S., "As climate change melts Alaska's permafrost, roads sink, bridges tilt and greenhouse gases release," The Seattle Times, December 16, 2019.

17. Walch, A., Bersamin, A., Loring, P., Johnson, R., & Tholl, M., "A scoping review of traditional food security in Alaska," International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 77(1) (2018).

18. "Social and Cultural Dimensions of Salmon Systems Working Group," State of Alaska's Salmon and People.

19. Carothers, C., Black, J., Landon, S., et al., "Indigenous peoples and salmon stewardship: a critical relationship," Ecology and Society, 26(1), 2021.

20. University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Food Policy Council, 2022 Governor's Task Force on Food Security and Independence, "Alaska Food Security and Independence Task Force 2022 Report," March 2023.

21. Joly, K., Gunn, A., Côté, S., et al., "Caribou and reindeer migrations in the changing Arctic," Animal Migration, 8(1), December 22, 2021.

22. "Climate change and wild foods in Alaska," U.S. Department of Agriculture.

23. "Alaska Food Security and Independence Task Force 2022 Report."

24. "Permafrost Thaw Emerges as Key Driver of Arctic Erosion," Technology Networks, December 4, 2024.

25. Schwing, E., "Alaska whaling communities pilot a project to keep traditional ice cellars frozen," High Country News, January 30, 2023.

26. Brubaker, M., Bell, J., Rolin, A., "Climate change effects on traditional Inupiat food cellars," Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, October 19, 2009.

27. George, K., "New study hints at huge price tag from permafrost thaw in Alaska," Alaska Public Media, October 17, 2023.

28. Alaska Housing Finance Corporation, "2018 Alaska Housing Assessment," January 17, 2018.

29. Bean, S., "As the permafrost melts, the houses in Nunapitchuk are breaking down," Alaska Public Media, January 12, 2024.

30. Bean, "As the permafrost melts."

31. Lindsey, K., "Overcrowded homes remain a health crisis in North America's Arctic," ArcticToday, February 20, 2018.

32. Healthy People 2030, "Housing Instability," U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

33. Hahn, M.B., Kulper, G., O'Dell, K., et al., "Wildfire smoke is associated with an increased risk of cardiorespiratory emergency deaprtment visits in Alaska," GeoHealth, 5(5), April 21, 2021.

34. Brubaker, M., Berner, J., Chavan, R., Warren, J., "Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska," Global Health Action, 2011(4), October 18, 2011.

35. Wu, R., Trubl, G., Neslihan, T., Jansson, J., "Permafrost as a potential pathogen reservoir," One Earth, 5(4), 351-360, April 15, 2022.

Arctic Arctic Initiative Environment & Climate Change North America Public Health

Photo Credit Toggle

Vicki Beaver, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries

Photo Credit Toggle

AP Photo/David Goldman, File

Executive Summary

Rapid thawing of permafrost has accelerated a public health crisis in Alaska by disrupting access to clean water, sanitation resources, and basic health infrastructure. For example:

Permafrost thaw-induced damage to hospitals, roads, and runways has disrupted the delivery of critical medical services and supplies.

Destabilization of housing and water infrastructure has created hazardous living conditions for children and families.

Thaw-induced disruptions to fishing, hunting, and subsistence practices have threatened food security and imposed barriers to practicing traditional cultures.

As this concept note explains, these outcomes are not inevitable or irreversible. Rather, strategic investments by the U.S. federal government, Alaska state agencies, Tribal government, and other community-based entities can help to bolster financial and technical assistance programs and infrastructure that will better enable those affected by permafrost thaw to adapt and build resilience to public health disruptions.

Public Health Infrastructure Governance in Alaska

Scales of Management

Key Institutions

Government

Federal

Denali Commission, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Indian Health Service, U.S. Department of Interior, U.S. Economic Development Administration, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Center for Disease Control

State

Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, Alaska Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development, Rural Utility Business Advisory Program (RUBA), Division of Public Health

Borough/Municipal

Local government agencies (manage roads, landfills, water and sewer)

Tribal

Tribal councils

Non-Governmental

Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium (ANTHC), Alaska Municipal League, Rural Community Assistance Corporation, Alaska Rural Water Association, Youth Alliance for a Healthier Alaska, Alaska Native Health Board

Background

What is permafrost and permafrost thaw?

Permafrost, rich in stored carbon, is continuously frozen ground that underlies ~85% of Alaska's land area. As permafrost thaws, the softening ground can destabilize local ecosystems and cause disruptions to surface and subsurface infrastructure, including homes, buildings, roads, and public utilities. In worst-case scenarios, permafrost thaw and compounding erosion and flooding can result in permanent land collapse, or ' usteq' in Yup'ik. Nearly 170,000 people, representing 192 communities in Alaska, live in permafrost zones,, and are consequently affected by the direct impacts of permafrost thaw. There are 229 federally recognized Tribes in Alaska, each with distinct cultural practices and ways of life that are particularly impacted by these changes.

How does permafrost thaw compromise human health outcomes?

Permafrost thaw puts thousands of Alaskans at serious risk of water contamination, subsistence food shortages, hospital closures, severe mold exposure, and other physical and mental health challenges. Permafrost thaw also threatens Native Alaskans' access to natural resources and traditional practices, including firewood gathering, hunting, fishing, and trapping.

These consequences are not only of immediate concern to affected populations but signify a violation of fundamental health freedoms to which the global population is entitled. Successful safeguards of such health freedoms are those that meet four essential criteria: availability, accessibility, acceptability, and quality. Health services must be available in sufficient quantities with functioning facilities, accessible without financial or physical barriers, acceptable to cultural practices, and meeting standards of quality for safety and effectiveness. Despite efforts by the U.S. federal government, Alaska state government, and Tribal governments and entities to implement such safeguards via institutional and policy frameworks, permafrost thaw threatens all four pillars of this right to health.

As this concept note explains, the effects of permafrost thaw contribute to discrete and measurable disruptions to the physical infrastructure and natural ecosystems that uphold environmental health in Alaska.

A Deeper Dive: Health Impact Areas and Policy Considerations

While the health impacts of permafrost thaw are extensive, this report will focus on some of the most acute health hazards, including contamination of safe drinking water, disruption of access to hospitals and healthcare, and contribution to food and housing insecurity. The included considerations for policymakers highlight opportunities to combat these challenges using government and community resources.

Unsafe Water and Sanitation

Permafrost thaw can pollute drinking water sources and damage sewage and sanitation infrastructure, exposing rural Alaskans to waterborne and water-washed diseases, and reducing the availability, accessibility, and quality of health services.

Drinking Water Contamination: In Alaska's Brooks Range, thawing permafrost leached toxic metals and sediments from the soil into the watershed, exposing the community's water supply to iron and toxic metals. Severe erosion from permafrost thaw also damaged the water treatment plant in Noatak, endangering the community's drinking water supply. In Quinhagak, permafrost thaw has destabilized the local sewage lagoon, which is a landfill used to dispose of human waste in communities without piped water, and repairs to the lagoon may cost $6m. The breach of the lagoon threatens human waste contamination of Kuskokwim Bay and Arolik and Kanektok Rivers, a vital subsistence fishing ground for the community.

Waterborne Disease: Ground destabilization from permafrost thaw has collapsed above-ground water distribution systems, reducing access to in-home piped water and leaving rural Alaskan families to self-haul water and human waste. In Nunapicuaq (Nunapitchuk), the village's only water treatment facility is leaning at 20 degrees, threatening to collapse and leave the village with no treated water for dishes, laundry, and flushing toilets. Alaskan families exposed to self-hauling practices have more hospital visits for respiratory and skin infections, and reduced water supply drives one of the highest global rates of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among Alaska Native children.

Considerations for Policymakers

Financial and technical assistance programs can help water and utility providers maintain and upgrade treatment facilities, conduct quality assessments, and publish inspection reports.

Public workshops and multi-generational classroom trainings can build community awareness of best practices in safe water treatment, testing, and usage.

Considerations for Policymakers

Financial and technical assistance programs can help water and utility providers maintain and upgrade treatment facilities, conduct quality assessments, and publish inspection reports.

Public workshops and multi-generational classroom trainings can build community awareness of best practices in safe water treatment, testing, and usage.

Reduced Access to Healthcare

Ground destabilization from permafrost thaw has nearly collapsed hospitals and health clinics across Alaska, reducing access to and availability of already limited health services and supplies.

Hospital Repairs: In Nome, permafrost thaw carved a "cave" beneath the foundation of Norton Sound Regional Hospital, requiring specialized emergency repairs to prevent the building from collapsing. Permafrost thaw in Quinhagak is also causing the community's only health clinic to sink into the ground, requiring an estimated ~$2.5m for relocation efforts.

Medical Supplies: Hospitals in rural Alaska depend on air delivery of critical medical supplies and equipment. Permafrost destabilization of local airport runways and roadways has temporarily severed hospitals in Nome from vital supplies.

Food Insecurity

In both Native and non-Native communities, the high costs of imported food make local foods a significant source of nutrients and energy, contributing up to 50% of energy intake in some regions. In Alaska Native cultures, subsistence foods are also central to culture, identity, and well-being. Salmon, in particular, carry a distinct spiritual significance in Native practices., "Wild foods" that are hunted, fished, or gathered are the primary local food source in Alaska. Permafrost thaw disrupts migration patterns of food species, coastal access, and food storage capacity, threatening the availability and accessibility of natural food sources and impeding cultural subsistence practices.

Hunting: Land mammals, which account for over one-fifth of wild foods consumed by rural Alaskans, have adjusted their migration patterns around landscape distortions and lake drainage from permafrost thaw. These migration changes jeopardize food security for subsistence hunters by adding uncertainty to locating and hunting animals.

Fishing and Marine Hunting: Approximately 70% of wild foods consumed by rural Alaskans are salmon, other fish, and marine mammals, but coastal permafrost thaw has destabilized coastlines, making traditional fishing and marine hunting areas inaccessible. As a result, coastal subsistence has become an increasingly dangerous and limited activity for Alaskans.

Food Storage: Permafrost has traditionally served as a natural food storage cellar with sufficient capacity for large community hunts. Permafrost thaw can reduce cellars' cooling capacity and cause fish and meat to spoil, exposing communities to food-borne illness.

Considerations for Policymakers

Trainings on ethical harvesting of traditional and medicinal plants, with consent of communities, can raise awareness of the cultural and practical significance of wild foods.

Food assistance programs are a critical source of free or low-cost groceries and produce for families experiencing disruptions in the availability of subsistence foods.

Storytelling of traditional subsistence practices, including outdoor food storage, can help document the impacts of ongoing environmental changes.

Unsafe Housing Conditions

Permafrost thaw has caused catastrophic damage to homes by collapsing or sinking foundations, exposing families to mold and physical safety hazards. As homes become more costly to safely build on permafrost, families are overcrowding into multigenerational homes or living in existing unsafe homes.

Mold and Cold Exposure: Permafrost thaw in Nunapicuaq has destabilized home foundations to the point that walls and floorboards are cracking and gaping. These openings allow rain, snow, and wind to leak in, exposing residents to freezing cold and creating damp conditions for severe mold to flourish. Residents have developed chronic respiratory illness from mold exposure.

Overcrowding: The shortage of stable land to build homes combined with the high costs of building permafrost-resilient foundations has contributed to housing shortages and severe home overcrowding. In Northwest Alaska, 39% of homes are overcrowded by Housing and Urban Development (HUD) standards. Overcrowding can increase stress, strain relationships, and deteriorate sleep quality and mental health.

Considerations for Policymakers

Indoor air quality monitoring projects organized by community-based health organizations can bring greater public awareness to households hazards such as mold.

Regular monitoring and evaluation of in-home environmental threats can help reduce risk and exposure to health hazards.

Energy efficiency evaluations, infrastructure upgrades, and regular maintenance can help insure homes are sufficiently insulated from the cold.

Compounding Health Effects

The thawing of permafrost in Alaska poses multiple threats to public health, and policymakers must support programs, policies, and initiatives that safeguard the fundamental human right to health. However, permafrost thaw is only one of many public health challenges facing Alaskans. An increasing health risk to Alaskans comes from wildfire smoke exposure. Alaskans exposed to wildfire smoke had higher cardiorespiratory visits to the emergency room both during and several days after exposure. Alaskans living in permafrost zones also experience mental health challenges from existential anxiety about the current and future state of environmental conditions in Alaska as well as the mental health strains of housing overcrowding. These health risks are compounding stressors for public health. Finally, while some permafrost in Siberia was discovered to have ancient frozen pathogens, harmful pathogens have not yet been discovered in Alaska, and scientists have determined these risks to human health to be low.

Conclusion

The public health hazards of permafrost thaw are mediated by damage to both the natural environment and critical water, sanitation, housing, and healthcare infrastructure. Programs and advocacy to build infrastructure resilience and protect natural resources can help guarantee Alaskans' rights to health. Community-based organizations like the Alaskan Native Tribal Health Consortium (ANTHC) are leading these efforts, but additional federal and state resources should help accelerate adaptation and resilience to permafrost thaw and stop the permafrost public health crisis in Alaska.

About this Concept Note

This concept note was prepared by Aruni Ranaweera and Tessa Varvares for Permafrost Pathways. Woodwell Climate Research Center launched the Permafrost Pathways project in 2022 with funding through the TED Audacious Project-a collaborative funding initiative catalyzing big, bold solutions to the world's most urgent challenges. Through partnerships with the Arctic Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School, the Alaska Institute for Justice, and the Alaska Native Science Commission, and in collaboration with Alaska Native Tribes, Permafrost Pathways seeks to harness the combined expertise of leading research institutions and on-the-ground organizations specializing in climate science, policy, and environmental justice to inform and develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to address permafrost thaw.

Considerations for Policymakers

Trainings on ethical harvesting of traditional and medicinal plants, with consent of communities, can raise awareness of the cultural and practical significance of wild foods.

Food assistance programs are a critical source of free or low-cost groceries and produce for families experiencing disruptions in the availability of subsistence foods.

Storytelling of traditional subsistence practices, including outdoor food storage, can help document the impacts of ongoing environmental changes.

Considerations for Policymakers

Indoor air quality monitoring projects organized by community-based health organizations can bring greater public awareness to households hazards such as mold.

Regular monitoring and evaluation of in-home environmental threats can help reduce risk and exposure to health hazards.

Energy efficiency evaluations, infrastructure upgrades, and regular maintenance can help insure homes are sufficiently insulated from the cold.

Arctic Arctic Initiative Environment & Climate Change North America Public Health

Photo Credit Toggle

Vicki Beaver, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries

Photo Credit Toggle

AP Photo/David Goldman, File

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Permafrost Thaw in Alaska: An Overlooked Climate-Health Crisis

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Rapid thawing of permafrost has accelerated a public health crisis in Alaska by disrupting access to clean water, sanitation resources, and basic health infrastructure.

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Arctic permafrost thaw adaptation and mitigation policy priorities - Permafrost Pathways

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Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release

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This much is clear: the Arctic is warming fast, and frozen soils are starting to thaw, often for the first time in thousands of years. But how this happens is as murky as the mud that oozes from permafrost when ice melts.As the temperature of the ground rises above freezing, microorganisms break down organic matter in the soil. Greenhouse gases — including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide

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Monitor, model, and make sure Arctic communities have the support they need

Feature by Katie Constantine

Woodwell President and CEO, Max Holmes, collects equipment used for Arctic research.

photo by John Le Coq

With the Arctic warming 3 to 4 times faster than the rest of the world, permafrost thaw has become a significant climate threat. Scientists estimate that permafrost contains 1.4 trillion tonnes of carbon, an amount more than double what is currently in the Earth's atmosphere. That carbon sink is stable as long as it stays frozen, but with recent and projected thaw, the organic matter in permafrost is breaking down and releasing carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, increasing the rate of climate change.

What we're doing

Addressing this issue requires extensive data collection on permafrost emissions, as well as equitable strategies for adaptation by Arctic communities. To tackle this issue, Woodwell has partnered with the Arctic Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School, the Alaska Institute for Justice, and the Alaska Native Science Commission to connect experts in climate science, human rights, and public policy with frontline communities and high-level decision makers. The partnership is pioneering a six-year research program called Permafrost Pathways that will develop action plans to address the compounding impacts of permafrost thaw.

Permafrost thaw is an issue that affects everyone.

With the understanding that this needs to be a sustainable process with long-term impact, Permafrost Pathways' scientists are expanding and coordinating a pan-Arctic carbon monitoring network to improve the accuracy of permafrost thaw emissions estimates. More precise measurements will fill critical data gaps and reduce uncertainties, so that permafrost emissions can be factored into global carbon budgets, climate models, targets, and measures for mitigation and adaptation. That, combined with high-resolution satellite and aircraft-based observations and advanced computer modeling, will allow for tracking the changing landscape in near real-time and more accurately projecting future emissions.

Permafrost Pathways is also collaborating with local communities to co-create Indigenous-led adaptation strategies. For many, relocation or infrastructure upgrades are needed urgently, but there is currently no process or resources to enable communities to move forward. With Arctic residents already feeling the brunt of climate change, the involvement of frontline communities is crucial in developing successful adaptation plans and effective policies.

graphic by Nichole Chapman

What's left to be done

Despite its big strides, Permafrost Pathways is still in its infancy and there is a long road ahead when it comes to tackling the complexity of permafrost thaw. Today, at least 192 countries, plus the European Union, have signed on to the Paris Agreement's promise of reducing emissions to keep warming below 2 degrees C. But many emissions reduction goals do not include carbon released by permafrost thaw. The international community needs to take strong action to change this or else permafrost thaw could undermine climate goals.

In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2021 report, permafrost thaw was named as an issue that should be included in carbon budgets and global reduction schedules, but often isn't because there is not enough data on its climate impact. Continued support of data gathering programs like Permafrost Pathways will provide the international community, top country-level climate negotiators, and environmental ministers the knowledge needed to fix that oversight and start filling gaps.

In Arctic communities, permafrost thaw is already causing disasters like flooding, coastal erosion, and infrastructure damage. To combat this, national and international policy makers need to act now to integrate permafrost thaw into disaster policies and community-led adaptation frameworks. This will create clear planning and response procedures for future permafrost-related issues.

What you can do

Permafrost thaw is an issue that affects everyone. Understanding the local and global implications and sharing that information within immediate social circles as well as on social media platforms can help start conversations that spur action. The public also has the power to influence the development of climate policies by pressuring elected officials to tackle this serious issue.
For more information about the issues surrounding permafrost thaw, read part one and part two in our Permafrost series. To stay informed and get involved, visit the Permafrost Pathways site.

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What can be done about permafrost thaw? - Woodwell Climate

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The issue of permafrost thaw is complex, but data gathering, policy change, and support for arctic communities can help

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Rewilding the Arctic could stop permafrost thaw and reduce climate

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The wide-scale introduction of large herbivores to the Arctic tundra to restore the ‘mammoth steppe’ grassland ecosystem and mitigate global warming is economically viable, suggests a new paper from

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Depending on how hot we let it get, carbon emissions from Arctic permafrost thaw are expected to be in the range of 30 to more than 150 billion tons of carbon (110 to more than 550 Gt CO2) this century, with upper estimates on par with the cumulative emissions from the entire United States at its current rate.