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Overpopulation

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A major part of the economic history of the world is characterized by Malthusian stagnation - a long phase during which growth rate of income per capita was almost zero. During this phase resources available per person remained almost constant because whenever there was an expansion of resources, due to technological progress or discovery of more fertile land that was offset by increased population. However, during the last two centuries, with the advent of industrial revolution, the pace of technological progress increased significantly, allowing a positive growth in income per capita. Various regions of the world departed from the Malthusian trap and experienced a considerable rise in the growth rate of income per capita. Later, industrial revolution generated demand for skilled labour and the increased role for human capital in the production process brought about demographic transition, resulting in significant reduction in population growth.

Demographic transition occurred with a sharp reduction in fertility rate, occurred simultaneously in several countries in the 1870s. The decline in the infant and child mortality rates has been a dominant explanation for the declining fertility rate in many developed countries, with notable exception in France and the United States. However, this view appears to be inconsistent with historical evidence. The mortality decline in Western Europe started nearly a century before the decline in fertility and was associated initially with increasing fertility rates in some countries (e.g. England) and non-decreasing fertility rate in others.

Another explanation for the demographic transition is the rise in income, an outcome of higher economic growth. The argument is that, the negative substitution effect of income increase outweighed its positive income effect, resulting in a net decline in fertility rate. The negative substitution effect was dominant due to the increased opportunity cost of child-rearing. The factors contributed to the increased opportunity cost of child-rearing include greater labour market opportunities owing to industrial revolution, higher income due to increased productivity - an outcome of technological progress, and reduction in the male-female wage gap. Further, it is also argued that income elasticity with respect to child quality (education level) is greater than that with respect to child quantity, and hence a rise in income led to a decline in fertility rate along with rise in investment in each child.

Thus the gains in productivity due to technological progress and increased accumulation of human capital were thus liberated from the counterbalancing effect of population growth. This pave the way for the emergence of modern sustained economic growth. However, the timing and pace of industrial expansion and demographic transition varied significantly across regions, resulting in significant income differences among regions over time.

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Population: Why has the population of European countries remained relatively small over the past century?

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Answer (1 of 3): There are 2 primary causes of Europe's low population growth rate over the last century: 1. High population density: Europe is already densely populated. It's not really that large a place, smaller than the US. But it's far more urban and a lot more people are squeezed into the ...

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October 30, 2011

In the 1960s, Turkish workers arrived in Germany to fill the demand for cheap labor in a booming post-war economy. Many of them never left, creating a minority community that changed the demographics of Germany forever.

Fifty-five years ago, Germany was in need of healthy, unmarried Turkish men to work in the country's booming post-war economy, and Turkey was more than willing to help fill that demand.

A treaty signed by the two states on October 30, 1961 established the conditions for the guest workers. The expenses for traveling to Germany were included, but the return trip was not always covered by employers.

There had previously been recruitment treaties between Germany and Italy in 1955 as well as with Spain in 1960. After Turkey, treaties were also signed with Morocco, Portugal, Tunisia and Yugoslavia until 1968. Germany needed additional labor for its factories and mines to help fuel the economic miracle driven by the rapid expansion of production after World War II.

According to the recruitment treaty, Germany was able - with the support of the Turkish government - to set up a liaison office in Istanbul. The office functioned as a foreign bureau for the German Ministry of Labour through which German companies could fill their demand for workers. Turkish authorities initially screened the applications, pre-selected the candidates and then organized interviews in the German liaison office.

For Turkey, the export of large numbers of male Turkish workers to Germany had several advantages. First, the men were well paid in Germany and sent remittances home to their families in Turkey. Second, they obtained further training in Germany and were supposed to bring that knowledge back to Turkey when they returned.
Two-year stay
The employment of Turkish workers was meant to be for a limited time just like with the Greeks, Italians and Spaniards that had previously come to Germany as guest workers.

After two years, the Turkish workers were expected to return home, and then a new group of workers was supposed to be recruited. The goal was to prevent the Turkish guests from becoming immigrants. Originally, the workers were not allowed to bring their families with them.

In 1964, the recruitment treaty was changed to allow the Turkish workers to stay for longer than two years. It was too expensive and time-consuming to constantly hire and train replacements. Later, the workers were even allowed to bring their families with them.
Land of immigrants
An economic recession triggered by the global oil crisis in the early 1970s followed Germany's economic miracle, and in 1973 the recruitment of foreign workers came to a stop altogether. Between 1961 and 1973, around 2.7 million Turks applied for a job in Germany, but only around 750,000 were actually accepted. Half of those who came returned to Turkey, according to estimates. The other half remained in Germany.

Today, around 2.5 million people with a Turkish background live in Germany, meaning either they or their parents were born in Turkey, making them the largest migrant group in the country. Around 700,000 Turkish migrants have German citizenship. In contrast to citizens of EU countries, Turks cannot have dual citizenship. If they possess both, they must choose between Turkish and German citizenship by their 23rd birthday.

Although the guest workers from Turkey and other countries came to Germany 50 years ago, Germany was only declared a de facto country of immigrants through the passage of new citizenship and immigration laws in 2000 and 2005.

Author: Klaudia Prevezanos / slk
Editor: Martin Kuebler

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Turkish guest workers transformed German society - DW - 10/30/2011

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In the 1960s, Turkish workers arrived in Germany to fill the demand for cheap labor in a booming post-war economy. Many of them never left, creating a minority community that changed the demographics of Germany forever.

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Migration and Immigrants in Europe: A Historical and Demographic Perspective

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In this chapter we outline the general developments of migration within and towards Europe as well as patterns of settlement of migrants. We provide a comprehensive historical overview of the changes...

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As well as the economy benefiting from the emergence of foreign worker, the unemployment rates dropped and helped turn supporters of Communism away.

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The population crisis led to the social services of Europe being utilized too heavily, which further increased anti-immigrant sentiment

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With Europe's economies beginning to recover from World War 2, a labor shortage in Western Europe led to an influx of migrant workers. Although these workers were needed, the increased immigration led to a rise in xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment.

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Anti-Immigrant sentiment in Europe was a result of the crowded conditions in the western countries, and the influx of migrants worsened the population crisis.

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Turkish men moved to Germany in the 1960s. This benefited the German economy as well as Turkish families related to the migrants.

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Many immigrants from Asia and Africa took job opportunities in Western Europe to help the economy.