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Since Russia invaded Ukraine over 12 million people have left their homes in order to seek asylum. The European Union, or the EU, has continously offered their help. The EU has helped to grant Ukrainians the automatic right to stay and work throughout the 27 member nations of the EU for up to three years. The EU has also helped house refugees in reception centres if they are unable to stay with friends or family. From there they are given food, medical care, and information to travel moving forward.

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At least 12 million people have fled their homes since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations (UN) says.

More than five million have left for neighbouring countries, while seven million people are still thought to be displaced inside Ukraine itself.

However, hundreds of thousands of refugees have returned to their home country - especially to cities like Kyiv.

Where are refugees going?

Russia: (estimated) 1,412,425 Ukrainian refugees recorded

Poland: 1,194,642

Moldova: 82,700

Romania: 83,321

Slovakia: 79,770

Hungary: 25,800

Belarus: 9,820

The UN says there are more than 867,000 Ukrainians in Germany, almost 382,768 in the Czech Republic and 141,562 in Italy.

Some Ukrainians travelled to Russia from the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, which are now mostly in the hands of pro-Russian separatist forces.

President Vladimir Putin said his forces evacuated 140,000 civilians from Mariupol and insisted none of them was forced to go to Russia. However, volunteer groups say they have helped thousands of Ukrainians leave Russia.

What help are countries offering refugees?

The EU has granted Ukrainians the automatic right to stay and work throughout its 27 member nations for up to three years.

Refugees are housed in reception centres if they can't stay with friends or relatives. They are given food and medical care, and information about onward travel.

They are entitled to social welfare payments and access to housing, medical treatment and schools.

Poland, one of the countries which has taken the highest number of refugees, and Moldova, which has the largest concentration of refugees by population, have asked for additional support.

How many people are returning to Ukraine?

Ukraine's border force had previously said people were crossing back into the country at a rate of about 30,000 a day.

Some are returning to areas of Ukraine such as the capital Kyiv, which were threatened by Russian army advances at the start of the war, but which are now considered safer.

Where are people fleeing inside Ukraine?

27% of refugees were from the Kharkiv region

16% from Kyiv

16% from the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine

24% indicated their homes had been damaged or attacked in the war

The IOM estimates that more than half of the people who are internally displaced are women. Many are particularly vulnerable because they are pregnant or have small children, have a disability or are a victim of violence.

The UN is working alongside other organisations to provide cash, food and other supplies.

What is the UK doing to help Ukrainian refugees?

After the government response was criticised, it launched the Homes for Ukraine scheme to allow those without relatives in the UK to settle.

People in the UK can nominate an individual or family to stay with them rent-free for at least six months.

Refugees who come via the scheme can live and work in the UK for up to three years, and get access to healthcare, welfare and schools.

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How many Ukrainian refugees are there and where have they gone?

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The UN says more than 12 million people have fled their homes since the Russian invasion.

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According to the Ministry of Education and Science, 2,177 educational facilities have been harmed and 284 have been destroyed since the Russian invasion in February. According to a recent report from the American nonprofit Save the Children, the fighting in Ukraine has damaged or destroyed four preschools on average every day.

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KHARKIV and DNIPRO, Ukraine - The first day of school in Ukraine is a big deal. Known as the Day of Knowledge, there are usually big celebrations - with rehearsed dances, concerts and lots of balloons. Children dress up in traditional Ukrainian vyshyvankas with brightly colored embroidery. Families bring teachers bouquets of flowers - there are usually so many flowers on the first day that the classrooms are bursting with colorful blooms.

This fall, the war with Russia has disrupted - but not destroyed - this beloved tradition in a country that places enormous importance on education.

At a small private school in the city of Dnipro, the day starts with a teacher leading each new first-grader through a hula hoop decorated with ribbons and leaves - initiating them into their school-aged life. Older students cheer while families try and catch every moment on their phones. Because of the war, this is one of just a handful of schools in the city offering in-person classes.

Two older students, Mariia and Varya, both 9, watch from a shared chair in the corner, holding hands and giggling. The friends hadn't seen each other since school shut down in February, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Watching them hold hands, reunited, Varya's mother, Alina Shtefan, remarked that the moment almost felt normal - when so much isn't normal. Her husband, a doctor, is in the armed forces and away from home. Both mom and daughter have been looking forward to this day - to coming to school - for months. After more than six months of staying close to home and rarely seeing friends, the start of school offers a bit of the familiar.

But even walking to school this morning wasn't as normal as Shtefan thought it would be.

"Usually the streets are filled with children and families going to school," she says, "but this morning it was just us."

Nearly 4 million students returned to school in Ukraine this month, despite the war. The majority will do some form of online learning - in some cases, it's because the school has been destroyed by bombs or is too close to the fighting. Schools offering in-person learning are required to have adequate bomb shelters. One thing remains true for all Ukrainian school children: as the war rages on, they're dealing with a lot of trauma. And their teachers are determined to provide support.

"It's the destruction of childhood." Schools continue to be targeted by Russian attacks

Two days before the start of the school year, kindergarten staff in Kharkiv were hard at work cleaning and preparing their brightly-painted school in the center of the city. No students would be arriving - in Ukraine's second largest city, the state-run schools are all online. But the staff wanted to make sure the school was tidy and ready. If the war ended tomorrow, they wanted the toys, the books, the little naptime beds with stuffed animals to be ready to welcome the children.

On that day in late August, two teacher assistants stepped outside to take out the trash when the kindergarten was rocked by an explosion. The shelling damaged classrooms and shattered school windows. The two teacher assistants were badly injured in the blast. They're now both in the hospital, undergoing multiple surgeries. The cheerfully-painted multicolor steps they were standing on collapsed, and their blood still stains the concrete.

"I was scared, but now I'm angry," says Yana Tsyhanenko, the head of school, who was in another part of the building during the attack. "It reaffirmed that we must do school online."

Since the Russian invasion in February, 2,177 education facilities have been damaged, and 284 have been destroyed, according to the Ministry of Education and Science. A new report from Save the Children, a U.S-based humanitarian organization, found an average of four preschools a day have been damaged or destroyed in the war in Ukraine.

It's especially stark in Kharkiv, where more than 40 schools have been damaged by shelling, according to an analysis by the Centre for Information Resilience. Other estimates, including one from the mayor of the city, put that number closer to 100.

Even for schools that are intact, the daily missile attacks and shelling in Kharkiv make offering safe, in-person learning a major challenge. With its proximity to Russia, there are often only a few minutes between the air raid sirens and an explosion. Even if a school had a shelter, there wouldn't be enough time to get children down there.

The day after the shelling at the kindergarten, brightly colored children's toys still poked out from the rubble of the damaged kindergarten classrooms and outdoor play area. City workers fashioned wood boards over the broken windows. They cleared out the shards of glass that blasted through classrooms, onto the bookshelves, cubbies and beds.

"It's not the destruction of the building that makes me emotional," Tsyhanenko says, "It's the destruction of childhood."

Before the war, the kindergarten served about 350 students, but now only 14 families remain in Kharkiv. The other families moved to other parts of Ukraine or abroad, but the school is still supporting its students with access to teachers, video lessons and suggestions for parents.

With all that turmoil, Tsyhanenko is worried about her students' mental health. The academics - the math and writing - they'll be able to catch up on, it's the emotional development they'll miss most. And without the safety of school and the comfort of the teachers, students and families are on their own.

"Kindergartens are not supposed to be empty," she says, walking down the brightly painted corridor. "They should be filled with laughter, with the sound of little feet running down the hallway." Every day since the attack, she's come back to the kindergarten, cleaning up the broken glass, and making sure the school remains ready for the children. She promised them she'd reopen, that the school would be there when it was safe enough to come back.

For teachers in schools without bomb shelters, online learning is the only option

Even in parts of the country further from the frontlines, most days don't pass without an air raid siren. Without adequate bomb shelters, schools remain closed for in-person classes.

At a secondary school in the east-central city of Dnipro, the halls are abuzz with the excitement of a new year, despite having no students. Teachers are in their classrooms, many freshly decorated, teaching their live video lessons from their rooms.

On the first floor, Anastacia Volkovynska stands at the front of her first-grade classroom with a computer open on a podium in front of her. She gives her online lesson in front of the chalkboard, which is decorated with letters that spell out "first time to the first grade." Her students may not see her sparkly red high heels on their computer screens, but they certainly catch her enthusiastic personality glittering across the screen.

She calls her students her "little kittens" as the 6-year-olds introduce themselves to the class and share their interests. "I like cats," one girl says.

"Marvelous!" exclaims Volkovynska.

A few doors down, a third-grade teacher tells her online class, "I'm going to play a song, and you have to guess it." As soon as the Ukrainian national anthem starts, Olha Chudnivetz's students join her in singing along.

"We're sad everything is this way," says Olha Morhon, the head of school, "but we won't be discouraged. Our main task is to show the children that we are here and we will persist."

That's especially important because students displaced by violence in other areas of Ukraine, like Kharkiv and Luhansk, have relocated to this city. The school's enrollment is actually up, despite being virtual. Across the country, nearly 90,000 students are internally displaced starting the school year at new schools, according to Yuriy Konenko, who heads the country's office for secondary and preschool education. About half a million students are continuing their schooling from abroad.

"It's better than nothing." Online school poses challenges for families

Across town, on the 6th floor of a Dnipro apartment building, Vera Sheremet, 10, is sitting at the desk in her bedroom, her computer open to her online art class. The teacher calls on her and she un-mutes just as her little brother, Boris, runs past, screaming. Vera slams her door to keep the noises he generates out of her room.

It's a scene familiar to anyone who dealt with remote schooling during the pandemic, including Vera and her family, except that this time, schools are closed because there isn't an adequate bomb shelter.

"I wanted to meet my teachers in person and I was really hoping that we'd go to school," Vera says when she's on a break between classes. "Online school isn't better. You don't get to meet your friends, you can't run around in the backyard of the school. You don't have normal."

Her parents, Serhii and Svitlana Sheremet, are also not thrilled about school being online and they wish their city had invested more time and money into making adequate shelters for the schools.

"This is, I don't know ..." Serhii trails off. "It's better than nothing."

"I think that education in-person would be better for my children," says Svitlana. They researched private schools in the area, a handful of which are in-person, but because the programs are in-demand, the costs have gone up.

They've also thought about leaving Ukraine. "The world is becoming more and more peaceful if we go to other countries," says Svitlana. "Even Vera, she is dreaming about England or the U.S. for education. She wants to see the world."

For now, the family is staying in Ukraine. Svitlana is a doctor, and she feels her purpose is to stay and help at the hospital. She tells us she feels her taxes help the war effort, help her country.

But there are moments when she falters. Sometimes the internet cuts out during Vera's class. During our visit, an air raid siren goes off. Svitlana says this happens frequently, interrupting class. "Let's go to the safety place," she calls down the hall to the kids.

"Here at home is the same danger as there is at school," she says, as she corrals the kids into the front storage closet they've repurposed as a shelter, with pillows, blankets and stuffed animals. "If schools had a great bomb shelter it would probably be more safe than at home. That's why I'm two hands up for in-person school."

Teaching children how to act during an attack or an air raid siren

At a community center in Kharkiv, senior police officer Dmytro Klymenko is standing in front of a whiteboard, instructing 9- and 10-year-olds how to stay safe during the war. He's introducing the topic of the two-wall rule. He draws a diagram on the board, with a circle to represent an explosion on one side, two lines for the two walls in the middle and a stick figure on the other side.

"The first wall will take the explosion," he tells the kids. "The second wall will get the debris from the first wall."

Most students have heard this information before. They know the answer when Klymenko asks what they'll do if a stranger approaches them (tell their mom, tell their teacher) and they know what belongings they should have in their bags when they go to the bomb shelter (their documents, a flashlight, a snack and a power bank to charge a phone).

Across the country, conversations like these are happening in schools and youth organizations. A new initiative from the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Ukraine is sending nearly two dozen security specialists to help students understand how to shelter properly and deal with explosive objects.

In the classroom in Kharkiv, 9-year-old Sasha Zhuravliov is listening to Klymenko intently. He says hates when things are out of order, and lately, with the war, a lot of things have been out of order. "This makes me really uncomfortable," Sasha says. What does he do when he feels this way? "I take three deep breaths and then three normal breaths," he says, just like his dad taught him when the war started. He says the breathing technique has been helping.

Experts say nearly all of Ukraine's more than 5 million children have experienced trauma

Sasha isn't alone. Experts say that nearly all of Ukraine's children have experienced trauma. Since Russia's invasion in February, children have been displaced from their homes, lost loved ones, witnessed violence and in some cases, experienced it firsthand.

The biggest challenge for Ukrainian educators in the coming months won't be academic - it will be in recognizing the effects of trauma and helping children work through it. Doing that virtually - makes it even harder.

Sasha, Vera and several other children told us that even if their teachers or their parents aren't telling them exactly what's going on with the war, they can tell scary things are happening. They say the biggest giveaway at home - is when their parents start to whisper to each other.

Educators in Kharkiv describe children drawing damaged houses in art class, parents say their kids are acting out, are playing more aggressively or are more in need of hugs.

"The trauma of war can present itself in many ways," says Yuliia Luchnikova a school psychologist in Dnipro. "This state-of-being in Ukraine isn't normal."

Over the last six months, she's helped families and students navigate anxiety, depression and anorexia stemming from the war. She recommends families have a kind of go-bag with coping strategies for mental trauma.

"You always have your body with you, you always have your mind," she says, "and those are tools to help you where you are." She tells the students she works with that when they are feeling scared or uncomfortable, they can practice tightening and releasing parts of their body one by one, to feel present. They can count their deep breaths to help calm down their bodies.

Public forums where psychologists offer insights on how to deal with the mental trauma of the invasion have sprung up across the country. Many schools offered teacher trainings with psychologists ahead of the new year. Luchnikova did a virtual training with psychologists in Israel, who shared with her their experience of helping children living through a war.

But the longer this war continues, the more the trauma is being prolonged or exacerbated. Children need a sense of safety, a sense of normalcy. Several caregivers remaining in Ukraine, including Vera's parents, told us if things don't improve soon, they'll have to make some big changes. Living like this, with daily fear, is extremely hard for children and their caregivers.

From the makeshift shelter in the center of their apartment, 10-year-old Vera Sheremet says she and her friends don't talk too much about the war because they're scared. "Lots of us have seen stuff blown up right outside our windows," she says. She's never seen it herself, only heard it nearby.

When she feels scared, she watches YouTube videos about people traveling. "I just watch people live a peaceful life, not like this." Vera doesn't try and tell herself she's safe because she knows she's not, but she tries to relax or get lost in a good book.

Her mom, who is listening down the hall, nods. "She's a very smart girl," says Svitlana Sheremet, "this situation is very intense for her. But she's really trying to just be a kid."

Hanna Palamorenko and Polina Lytvynova contributed to this report.

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Traumatized and displaced but determined, kids in Ukraine head back to school

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KHARKIV and DNIPRO, Ukraine - The first day of school in Ukraine is a big deal. Known as the Day of Knowledge, there are usually big celebrations - with rehearsed dances, concerts and lots of balloons. Children dress up in traditional Ukrainian vyshyvankas with brightly colored embroidery.

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Even though U.S. and its European allies have tried to convince other countries of the moral and strategic imperatives of Russia and to support the Ukrainian resistance, however it is not always possible. For instance, Russian oil and food staples are examples as to why it might be difficult for a country to take a certain stance. China is one country that seems to be in the middle of all this. China hasn’t lent its full support to Russia, hasn’t sold weapons to Russia, or explicitly violated sanctions to support the war effort.

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It has been a critical question since the Russians invaded Ukraine - and the answers have shifted in the nearly seven months since then: On the geopolitical stage, who stands with Russian President Vladimir Putin?

From the beginning, the U.S. and its European allies have tried to convince the rest of the world of the moral and strategic imperatives of condemning Russia and supporting the Ukrainian resistance. Among core arguments made by the collective West: How can the world stand by as one nation invades another without provocation? How to defend silence in the aftermath of atrocities - at Bucha, Mariupol and other places in Ukraine? How to avoid a dangerous precedent - one that might encourage further attacks on other nations' sovereign territory?

The counterpoints have taken different forms - and they have come from many places other than Russia itself. Among these: We cannot always afford to take a moral stance; we have our own self-interests to worry about - Russian oil and food staples, to name two prominent examples; and the West has remained silent or ineffectual in response to acts of aggression in other parts of the world.

In April, Grid's Nikhil Kumar published a piece under the heading, "Is Putin a pariah?" What was clear at the time was that there was a sizable divide between the West and a range of important nations - China, India, Turkey and several countries from across the so-called Global South - which were either openly supporting Russia or at least refusing to condemn the invasion.

The Ukraine War and the "Who stands with Putin?" question loom large at this week's gathering of the United Nations General Assembly. And the answers may shift yet again given Putin's game-changing announcements Wednesday. Putin and his defense minister gave a pair of speeches from the Kremlin - not to the U.N., but to the Russian people. The main points: a call-up of 300,000 Russian reservists; the announcement of referendums to be held in four territories in southern and eastern Ukraine - presumably a step toward the formal Russian annexation of those territories; and - a note meant for the wider world - a new and not-so-veiled reminder that Russia has nuclear weapons at its disposal, and that the West has, in Putin's view, crossed "red lines."

Who stands with Putin now? This week's Global Grid conversation took up the question with Global Editor Tom Nagorski, China Reporter Lili Pike, Deputy Global Editor Nikhil Kumar and Global Security Reporter Josh Keating.

Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Tom Nagorski: Lili Pike, what was the response from the Chinese to what Vladimir Putin said Wednesday?
Lili Pike: The Foreign Ministry put out a statement at its daily press conference saying China calls for all sides to come to the negotiating table and to "find a peaceful resolution" to the conflict. The spokesperson emphasized that this is a consistent position that China has had from the beginning, but it's still notable that he did speak, that he responded to reporters' questions directly about Putin's speech and about the escalation.

So we're not seeing China come out with a brand new position, denouncing Russia. But it is still notable that China is, once again, calling for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. China has tried to carve out this position of neutrality, which has meant that China hasn't denounced Russia for the war - and it actually hasn't called the war a "war," explicitly.

But China hasn't lent its full support to Russia, either. China hasn't sold weapons to Russia or explicitly violated sanctions to support the war effort. But at the same time, from the beginning, China has in some ways effectively supported Russia's stance by echoing statements Russia has made about NATO's expansion as a precursor to the war, putting blame on the West for that. So it's been an interesting position to follow from the beginning, a difficult position to hold as Russia escalates.

Along with the statement Wednesday, we have seen other signs that China is uncomfortable in this position. Just last week, [Chinese President] Xi Jinping met with other world leaders, including Putin, at a regional summit in Uzbekistan. Putin himself actually said that he understood that Xi had "questions and concerns" about the war. Xi did not speak to these concerns in his public remarks, but I think that gives you a sign that despite the fact that Russia and China have this strong partnership, China is certainly not all-in in supporting Russia in this war and may have rising concerns about it.
TN: A pretty well-honed principle of Chinese foreign policy is, "You don't mess in the internal affairs of another country." So I suppose one could sit in Beijing and say, "We don't want to interfere in what Russia decides it should be doing." On the other hand, you could read that principle to say, there's no basis for encroaching and annexing Ukrainian territory. How does that conundrum play into what they say or do in Beijing?
LP: That's a great question. From the beginning, experts have pointed to China's principle of sovereignty and said that China is being hypocritical by effectively, in some ways, supporting Russia, given that it's breaching Ukraine's sovereignty. You can point to that as a contradiction, certainly. In its latest remarks, China continued to speak to that principle, which would seem to, again, contradict this move toward formal annexation.

But at the same time, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said this dialogue process toward a peaceful resolution would need to take into account all parties' "legitimate security concerns." That's language that we've seen again and again, referencing this encroachment that Russia and China feel from NATO. You're seeing both of those principles - and certainly some conflict between the two of them - in their statements.
TN: Nikhil, back to that meeting that Lili referenced in Uzbekistan last week. Perhaps less opaque were the comments made by another major global leader, Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India. There's a country that has straddled the fence for reasons of its own economic and security interests. What exactly did Modi convey to Putin?
Nikhil Kumar: What he said exactly was "sitting next to Putin, I know that today's era is not an era of war." That phrase was picked up quite a lot, which people read as him basically telling Putin off. He knew Putin's position on the conflict in Ukraine, but he also said that they've talked about this again and again on the phone, basically indicating that he was trying to press Putin to bring this conflict to an end. But as you say, it's a complicated position with Modi.

TN: I doubt we're going to hear any kind of full-throated condemnation from Delhi about what Putin has said and done Wednesday. It's tougher for India to make a clean break with Moscow - is that right?

NK: Absolutely, which is why India has over the last few months, again and again, abstained when it comes to votes at the U.N. to do with Ukraine. It did vote against Russia in a recent procedural vote to allow [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy] to address the Security Council. That was the only time that it broke away.

It's not easy for India to condemn Russia for a host of reasons. It starts with a very long-standing relationship that India had with the former Soviet Union, and which it's continued to have with Russia, which has to do with defense. Something like 60 to 70 percent of the equipment that India's armed forces use originates in Russia. That means not only that they need all kinds of spare parts and so on, but they need maintenance from Russia as well. So there's that relationship, which is not going to shift overnight.

Then there is the whole energy relationship, which has become much more important in recent months because India has been hit by the very high energy prices, which have been driven up, of course, by the war. Russia stepped in by offering India, along with other countries, a discount on the oil that it sells. We don't know the precise figure, but people have said that it's something around 30 percent below the market rate. That's why earlier in the summer, for a brief period, Russia replaced Saudi Arabia as India's second-largest oil supplier.

So there are all these very complicated deep links, which mean that when Modi thinks of his domestic picture, when he looks at inflation, at what he needs for his armed forces, he is having to balance this against the fact that India, over the last two to three decades, has also become very close to the United States and other Western countries.

That's not a relationship that he wants to ruin in any way. So he's been working the middle ground, trying to balance the two things. So far, it has to be said, he has been getting away with it.
TN: Josh, the assumption one makes from a distance about the Kremlin announcements from Putin and his defense minister is that they come as a response to the troubles they've had on the battlefield. You suggested there may also be something in the fact that they came only a few days after these gentle rebukes from China and India.
Joshua Keating: Clearly, the main driving force behind what we saw from Vladimir Putin this morning was the setbacks they faced in eastern Ukraine and the mounting domestic criticism. But the international dimension is important too. For both the countries that have stood by Russia and the ones that have been on the fence, there was an assumption that this war would be over relatively quickly. And as it drags on, we've seen just how destructive this conflict has been, how disruptive it's been to the global economy. Some of these countries, particularly China and India, are losing patience with this. There's a sense that Russia needs to demonstrate some progress - a way out of this conflict, other than just a protracted endless war that it seems to be embarked on right now.
TN: All this is coming in the midst of this big, crazy week at the United Nations. Even before Putin said what he said, it was clear that the war was going to be on the front burner at the U.N. President Biden called Putin's statements "outrageous" and "irresponsible." Are we going to have U.N. resolutions? What should we expect from the United Nations by way of response?
JK: It really is a jarring juxtaposition. The U.N. does a lot, from famine relief to cultural preservation to nuclear security. But it has one core function: Keeping countries from using force to conquer each other, from invading each other. It's right there in the U.N. Charter, which President Biden referred to specifically in his speech: Countries can't use force against the territorial integrity or political independence of other countries.

So to have this meeting of the U.N. at the same time that Putin has basically declared or set in motion the process for the annexation of about 15 percent of Ukraine's territory is pretty jarring. As far as action that might be taken, we will probably see the U.S. try to table another Security Council Resolution, which will obviously be vetoed by Russia, as previous resolutions have been. Things may then move to the General Assembly, where there's a pretty good chance that the General Assembly would vote to condemn Russia's seizure of territory. That's the kind of vote people look for to see which countries abstain, which don't vote, to get a sense of the global level of support and the degree to which some of these countries that were trying to remain neutral might finally be running out of patience with what they're seeing from the Russian government.
TN: A question about Turkey. They are also in that category of fence-sitters. Talk about [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan and what he has been saying in the last 24 or 48 hours.
JK: Turkey has played a pretty fascinating role in this conflict - as a NATO member, but one that also has a close defense relationship with Russia, at times a tense one. But it's tried to play both sides of the fence. It's sold weaponry to Ukraine, including the drones that Ukrainian military has made very effective use of, but it also stopped short of joining other NATO countries and sanctioning Russia.

Turkey has played the role of a go-between - it was one of the important countries in mediating the deal to allow the export of grain through the Black Sea. It was interesting to watch President Erdogan being interviewed Tuesday by Judy Woodruff of PBS. He was asked if Russia should be permitted to keep some of the territory that it's taken from Ukraine. His answer was no, undoubtedly no. The lands which were invaded will be returned to Ukraine.

If this war does end at the negotiating table, there's a good chance Turkey might be one of the mediators of those talks, the country that's been talking to both sides of this war. If Turkey, of all countries, is saying absolutely not, Russia can't keep any of this territory, that's a good sign that there's not a lot of international support for Russia's political position on this conflict.
TN: Nikhil, there are a lot of expressions of concern at the U.N. this week that the poor nations of the world can't afford to choose sides without making calculations about where they're going to get their food and energy. Talk a little bit about this dynamic and how much that matters.
NK: The world was already facing a food crisis even before Russia's invasion of Ukraine for a variety of reasons, including the disruptions caused by the covid-19 pandemic and supply chain disruptions. And for a lot of poor countries, these problems have been made worse by this war.

For instance, sanctions on Russia have interrupted the food supply - as Josh mentioned, the grain deal has helped and provided some relief when it comes to food prices. But there are still lots of problems. One involves the supply of fertilizer, which is essential for farmers in all parts of the world. Right now, fertilizer prices are about three times where they were before covid. That's connected very much to the war in Ukraine.

For a lot of these countries that are geographically very far away, they don't have a feeling of being right next door to this conflict, as many people do in Europe. They're far away, but they are nonetheless impacted by what's going on because of how this conflict impacts the food market and energy markets. In the global energy market, the inflationary effects of all of this are bearing down on their populations. This was a point that was made again and again by Modi's foreign minister last week, who in various places said that this was not India's war, essentially, but we are having to live with the consequences of it.

The point that he made has been made by other officials in other parts of the world. Who would say no to cheap oil at a time of rapidly rising inflation? For all these countries, that's the biggest concern. "Yes, we don't think big countries should attack smaller countries, but at the same time, we're having to live with the consequences."
TN: Let's come back to China. We know that Xi Jinping is not in New York. As is often the case, his Foreign Minister Wang Yi is going to do the honors at the General Assembly. In terms of the war, what do you think China's likely message will be?
LP: We're likely to hear similar messages to what we heard from the foreign ministry Wednesday. China calls for a peaceful resolution, balancing these two seemingly contradictory principles of supporting sovereignty and also supporting these [Russian] claims of legitimate security concerns, which speak to Russia's interests.

I don't anticipate seeing a big shift. I had a conversation with the Stimson [Center] China expert Yun Sun last week, in the wake of that big meeting in Uzbekistan. She was clear that when we look at this relationship between China and Russia, the war is certainly a factor, and we might see some shifts in China's position. But the broader rationale for China's growing engagement with Russia is based on the growing tensions with the U.S. So as long as those tensions with the U.S. grow, China has an interest in building its relationship with Russia.

As she put it, whether Russia wins or loses, China benefits in the long term. If Russia wins, China gains a stronger partner and if Russia loses, China gains a vassal state to basically support its interests globally. Given that Russia on the U.N. Security Council has that veto power, that's all very important for China. From her perspective, China has a long-term interest in keeping this relationship with Russia strong, and that's likely to dictate how China sees the conflict going forward.
TN: Nikhil, the assumption has been that Europe is where the most steadfast stand against Putin exists. Is that strong as ever? Or fraying a little bit?
NK: The polling that has been done in various countries continues to show a lot of public support for Ukraine and against Russia. This is, of course, reflected in the stances of the various political leaders across the European spectrum.

Not all though. There's Viktor Orban, Hungary's authoritarian leader, who people have called Putin's Trojan horse inside the European bloc. Because of rising energy costs, we've seen protests in different parts of Europe. We've seen them in Austria, in Italy and elsewhere. People have been calling for more action to bring down these prices, and they have been doing this while at the same time saying that they still stand with Ukraine in many cases.

The question is: What happens as we head into winter and as the energy crunch intensifies? There's an election in Italy coming, and the woman who is likely to become prime minister, according to all the polls, is Giorgia Meloni, who leads a right-wing coalition which includes parties that are not so strongly against Putin. One of her allies, Matteo Salvini, has called for the sanctions on Russia to be watered down, saying that they are in fact hurting Italy. Meloni herself has made clear that she doesn't support that point of view. But if she becomes prime minister, we don't know what's going to happen within that coalition and what the stance of this very important member of the European Union might be.

So there are all these questions about what happens next with Europe. We're heading into winter, and that raises questions about what happens with public support in Europe, as people start seeing the impact of this energy crisis, and then what will happen? That would not have been a question if this war had ended two months ago. As this persists, I think, yes, there will be more questions about European support. But for now, it holds.
Thanks to Alicia Benjamin for copy editing this article.

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Who still stands with Putin and Russia in the war with Ukraine?

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It has been a critical question since the Russians invaded Ukraine - and the answers have shifted in the nearly seven months since then: On the geopolitical stage, who stands with Russian President Vladimir Putin? From the beginning, the U.S.

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According to data from the National Statistical Office, the deficit in Ukraine's exports of products increased from January to June 2022 to $2.468 billion from $1.227 billion. Its data shows that imports increased by 19.1% to $25.2 billion. It also shows that exports of goods from Ukraine declined by 24% to $22.732 billion during the reporting period compared to the first half of 2021.

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International Trade Administration | Trade.gov

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Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had an enormous impact on the economic and financial landscape of Ukraine. Aside from the calamitous humanitarian crisis and geopolitical instability that the war has unleashed, economic activity has been significantly curbed. While the situation is rapidly evolving, and short and long term impact predictions are subject to revision, the crisis has undoubtedly changed the market environment in Ukraine.

The World Bank predicts that the Ukrainian economy will shrink by 35 percent in 2022 amid market disruptions caused by the war[1]. Ukraine's First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy, Yulia Svyrydenko, further estimates that the real GDP of Ukraine could fall by 35 to 45 percent through the rest of 2022. Annual inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 22.2% in July 2022, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Earlier in July, the National Bank of Ukraine said that inflation in Ukraine will reach over 30% in 2022.

While the economic situation is likely to stabilize and recover as the crisis abates, the erosion of production capacity remains a barrier to future growth. In the short term, there has been a sharp reduction in the labor supply as more than a third of the population has been displaced by the war. The destruction of agricultural land and equipment could also inhibit the recovery of Ukraine's historically productive and rich farmlands. As such, the World Bank estimates that the recovery and reconstruction costs from the war in Ukraine will total a minimum of $349 billion - 1.5 times the size of the pre-war economy.

The deficit of Ukraine's foreign trade in goods in January-June 2022 doubled compared to the same period in 2021 - to $2.468 billion from $1.227 billion, the State Statistics Service reported. According to its data, exports of goods from Ukraine during the reporting period decreased by 24% compared to the first half of 2021 - to $22.732 billion, imports - by 19.1%, to $25.2 billion.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank have a robust historical presence in the country and have signaled their support of the coming reconstruction as have many donor countries. Still, Ukraine will need continued financial support in both the short-term as the war continues and in the long-term for recovery.

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Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had an enormous impact on the economic and financial landscape of Ukraine. Aside from the calamitous humanitarian crisis and geopolitical instability that the war has unleashed, economic activity has been significantly curbed.

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The War in Ukraine has disrupted the education of 5.7 million school-aged children.  Ever Since the war began, hundreds of schools across Ukraine have been reported to have been hit by heavy artillery. Millions of children have been displaced inside Ukraine and in neighboring countries. UNICEF( United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund) is working with partners in Ukraine and neighboring countries to provide children an easy and affordable education. They have provided access to formal and non-formal education to more than 1.4 million children and education supplies to almost 771,000 children. Also, they provided almost 300,000 children with psychosocial support and life skills education.

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War in Ukraine: Support for children and families

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The war has been devastating for families. UNICEF and partners are on the ground providing support for those in need

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Russia's invasion on Ukraine has severely affected global markets. Prices of oil, gas and certain agricultural products have risen. Also, Russia is a global supplier of many raw materials such as Aluminum, Nickel, Palladium, and Vanadium. With these materials rising in price it is very difficult for countries to buy these supplies and might have to switch to an alternative source.

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Data collected from over 20 different countries in the region shows that children are bearing the heaviest burden of the economic crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, being 25% of the population. In an effort to boost the economy in the short-term, the government started reducing public expenditure and raising taxes, which deepens the risk of child poverty greatly. Most can agree that it is in everyone's best interest to continue to financially support Ukraine, since it is one of the most assured ways for quick recovery and reconstruction.

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Highlights

Data from 22 countries across the region featured in the study shows children are bearing the heaviest burden of the economic crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. While children make up 25 per cent of the population, they account for nearly 40 per cent of the additional 10.4 million people experiencing poverty this year.

The Russian Federation has experienced the most significant increase in the number of children living in poverty, with an additional 2.8 million children now living in households below the poverty line, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the total increase across the region. Ukraine is home to half a million additional children living in poverty, the second largest share. It is important to note that this is a conservative estimate which uses a GDP drop of 10 per cent.

The consequences of child poverty stretch far beyond families living in financial distress. The sharp increase could result in an additional 4,500 children dying before their first birthday, and learning losses could be equivalent to an additional 117,000 children dropping out of school this year.

The poorer a family is, the greater the proportion of their income that is committed to necessities such as food and fuel. When the costs of basic goods soar, the money available to meet other needs such as health care and education falls. The Ukraine war and subsequent cost-of-living crisis means that the poorest children are even less likely to access essential services and are more at risk of child marriage, violence, exploitation and abuse.

For many, childhood poverty lasts a lifetime. One in three children born and raised in poverty will live their adult lives in poverty, leading to an intergenerational cycle of hardship and deprivation.

The challenges faced by families living in or on the brink of poverty deepen when governments reduce public expenditure, increase consumption taxes or put in place austerity measures in a limiting effort to boost their economies in the short-term, as this diminishes the reach and quality of support services that families depend on.

The study sets out a framework to help reduce the number of children living in poverty and prevent more families from falling into financial distress:

Provide universal cash benefits for children and ensure minimum income security.

Expand social assistance benefits to all families with children in need, including refugees.

Protect social spending, especially for vulnerable children and families.

Protect and support the delivery of health, nutrition, and social care services to pregnant mothers, infants, and pre-schoolers.

Introduce price regulations on basic food items for families.

UNICEF has recently partnered with the EU Commission and several EU countries to pilot the EU Child Guarantee initiative to mitigate the impact of poverty on children and provide them with opportunities to thrive in adulthood. With more children and families now being pushed into poverty, a robust response is warranted across the region.

UNICEF is calling for continued and expanded support to strengthen social protection systems in high- and middle-income countries across Europe and Central Asia; and the prioritization of funding for social protection programmes, including cash assistance programmes for vulnerable children and families.

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The impact of the war in Ukraine and subsequent economic downturn on child poverty in eastern Europe

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Data from 22 countries across the region featured in the study shows children are bearing the heaviest burden of the economic crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. While children make up 25 per cent of the population, they account for nearly 40 per cent of the additional 10.4 million people experiencing poverty this year.

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The regions social protection systems have played a critical role in supporting households and businesses during the pandemic and the war in Ukraine by introducing policy instruments. Income and job protection measures are trying to be met in order to promote economic growth, reduce poverty, and preserve jobs. Social protection systems continue to become more adaptive and inclusive to address short-term shocks to the economy, as well as long-term shocks.

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WASHINGTON, October 4, 2022 - The ongoing war in Ukraine has dimmed prospects of a post-pandemic economic recovery for emerging and developing economies in the Europe and Central Asia region, says the World Bank's Economic Update for the region, released today.

Economic activity will remain deeply depressed through next year, with minimal growth of 0.3% expected in 2023, as energy price shocks continue to impact the region. So far, however, the region has weathered the storm of Russia's invasion of Ukraine better than previously forecast. Regional output is now expected to contract by 0.2% this year, reflecting above expectation growth in some of the region's largest economies and the prudent extension of pandemic-era stimulus programs by some governments.

Ukraine's economy is now projected to contract by 35% this year although economic activity is scarred by the destruction of productive capacity, damage to agricultural land, and reduced labor supply as more than 14 million people are estimated to have been displaced. According to recent World Bank estimates, recovery and reconstruction needs across social, productive, and infrastructure sectors total at least $349 billion, which is more than 1.5 times the size of Ukraine's pre-war economy in 2021.

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered one of the biggest human displacement crises and exacted a heavy toll on human and economic life," said Anna Bjerde, World Bank Vice President for the Europe and Central Asia region. "Ukraine continues to need enormous financial support as the war needlessly rages on as well as for recovery and reconstruction projects that could be quickly initiated."

The global economy continues to be weakened by the war through significant disruptions in trade and food and fuel price shocks, all of which are contributing to high inflation and subsequent tightening in global financing conditions. Activity in the euro area, the largest economic partner for emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) of Europe and Central Asia, has deteriorated markedly in the second half of 2022, due to distressed supply chains, increased financial strains and declines in consumer and business confidence. The most damaging effects of the invasion, however, are surging energy prices amid large reductions in Russian energy supply.

Downgrades to growth forecasts for 2023 are broad-based across EMDEs in Europe and Central Asia as the regional outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty. Prolonged or intensified war could cause significantly larger economic and environmental damage and greater potential for fragmentation of international trade and investment. The risk of financial stress also remains elevated, given high debt levels and inflation.

A supplement to the report examines the impact of the energy crisis. While global prices for oil, gas and coal have been rising since early 2021, they skyrocketed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, sending inflation to levels not seen for decades in the region. This unprecedented crisis has implications for consumers and Governments alike - constraining fiscal affordability; firm productivity; and household welfare.

Hardest hit will be countries with medium to high reliance on natural gas imports for heating (which accounts for 30% of energy demand), industry, or electricity, as well as countries closely connected with EU energy markets. These countries must prepare for gas shortages and put in place emergency plans to mitigate the worst impacts on households and firms, including saving energy, boosting energy efficiency, and implementing quota/rationing plans. Behavior change campaigns that focus on heating efficiency in homes and buildings, such as resealing windows and adding insulation, require relatively minimal investment and have immediate impacts.

"The overlapping crises of the war in Ukraine, the ongoing pandemic and the surge in food and fuel prices are painful reminders that governments need to be prepared to manage massive, unexpected shocks that unravel very quickly," said Ms. Bjerde. "Social protection systems, which are the bedrock of anti-poverty efforts, need to be modernized to make them effective in the face of shocks as well as longer-term challenges."

The report also includes a special focus on the region's social protection systems, which have played a critical role in supporting households and businesses during the pandemic and, more recently, from the fallout of the war in Ukraine.

The region's pandemic response comprised two broad types of policy instruments: income protection measures and job protection measures. The report assesses the effectiveness of these measures in promoting economic growth, reducing poverty, and preserving jobs. It finds that, in the short run, higher spending on job protection measures was associated with higher employment and less poverty. However, the effect of these measures on growth is less clear.

These lessons from the pandemic are instructive for policymakers in making social protections systems adaptive and inclusive to effectively address both short-term shocks to the economy, and the longer term trends which are transforming labor markets, including globalization, demographic trends, technological innovation, and the impacts of climate change and climate action.

Policy interventions to building social protection systems for the future can include a combination of (i) guaranteed minimum income support designed to protect individuals and households from adverse shocks, (ii) regulatory reforms that gradually remove restrictions on firms' hiring and dismissal practices, and ultimately support the creation of formal jobs in the private sector and a reduction in informality; (iii) enhanced coverage of and protection for vulnerable groups; and (iv) digitalization for improved quality and quantity of services provision.

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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Impedes Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery in Emerging Europe and Central Asia

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WASHINGTON, October 4, 2022 - The ongoing war in Ukraine has dimmed prospects of a post-pandemic economic recovery for emerging and developing economies in the Europe and Central Asia region, says the World Bank's Economic Update for the region, released today.