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The article talk about the cause of climate change.

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Burning fossil fuels, cutting down forests and farming livestock are increasingly influencing the climate and the earth's temperature.

This adds enormous amounts of greenhouse gases to those naturally occurring in the atmosphere, increasing the greenhouse effect and global warming.

Global warming

2011-2020 was the warmest decade recorded, with global average temperature reaching 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels in 2019. Human-induced global warming is presently increasing at a rate of 0.2°C per decade.

An increase of 2°C compared to the temperature in pre-industrial times is associated with serious negative impacts on to the natural environment and human health and wellbeing, including a much higher risk that dangerous and possibly catastrophic changes in the global environment will occur.

For this reason, the international community has recognised the need to keep warming well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.

Greenhouse gases

The main driver of climate change is the greenhouse effect. Some gases in the Earth's atmosphere act a bit like the glass in a greenhouse, trapping the sun's heat and stopping it from leaking back into space and causing global warming.

Many of these greenhouse gases occur naturally, but human activities are increasing the concentrations of some of them in the atmosphere, in particular:

CO ₂ produced by human activities is the largest contributor to global warming. By 2020, its concentration in the atmosphere had risen to 48% above its pre-industrial level (before 1750).

Other greenhouse gases are emitted by human activities in smaller quantities. Methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO ₂, but has a shorter atmospheric lifetime. Nitrous oxide, like CO ₂, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere over decades to centuries. Non-greenhouse gas pollutants, including aerosols like soot, have different warming and cooling effects and are also associated with other issues such as poor air quality.

Natural causes, such as changes in solar radiation or volcanic activity are estimated to have contributed less than plus or minus 0.1°C to total warming between 1890 and 2010.

Causes for rising emissions

Burning coal, oil and gas produces carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide.

Cutting down forests (deforestation). Trees help to regulate the climate by absorbing CO₂ from the atmosphere. When they are cut down, that beneficial effect is lost and the carbon stored in the trees is released into the atmosphere, adding to the greenhouse effect.

Increasing livestock farming. Cows and sheep produce large amounts of methane when they digest their food.

Fertilisers containing nitrogen produce nitrous oxide emissions.

Fluorinated gases are emitted from equipment and products that use these gases. Such emissions have a very strong warming effect, up to 23 000 times greater than CO₂.

Countering climate change

As every tonne of CO ₂ emitted contributes to global warming, all emissions reductions contribute to slowing it down. In order to stop global warming completely, CO ₂ emissions have to reach net zero worldwide. In addition, reducing emissions of other greenhouse gases, such as methane, can also have a powerful effect on slowing global warming - especially in the short term.

The consequences of climate change are extremely serious, and affect many aspects of our lives. Both countering climate change and adapting to a warming world are top priorities for the EU.We need climate action now. Find out about what the EU is doing to fight the climate crisis.

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Burning fossil fuels, cutting down forests and farming livestock are increasingly influencing the climate and the earth's temperature.

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This is an article posted in 2018 talking about wild fires

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A wildfire is an uncontrolled fire that burns in wildland vegetation, often in rural areas.

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Understanding the Big Picture

The Earth's climate is changing and the global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse (heat-trapping) gases emitted globally and on the remaining uncertainty in the sensitivity of the Earth's climate to those emissions. With significant reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), global annual averaged temperature rise could be limited to 2°C or less. However, without major reductions in these emissions, the increase in annual average global temperatures, relative to preindustrial times, could reach 5°C or more by the end of this century.

The global climate continues to change rapidly compared to the pace of the natural variations in climate that have occurred throughout Earth's history. Trends in globally averaged temperature, sea level rise, upper-ocean heat content, land-based ice melt, arctic sea ice, depth of seasonal permafrost thaw, and other climate variables provide consistent evidence of a warming planet. These observed trends are robust and confirmed by multiple, independent research groups around the world. Figure 1 shows global average temperature anomalies; since the 1880s global average temperature has warmed approximately 1°C.

Figure 1. Global Average Temperature Anomalies, departure from 1881-1910.

The plot shows how much global annual average temperatures for the years 1880-2022 have been above or below the 1881-1910 average. Temperatures for years warmer than the early industrial baseline are shown in red; temperatures for years cooler than the baseline are shown in purple. Graphic: Climate Central; Data: NASA GISS and NOAA NCEI. global temperature anomalies averaged and adjusted to early industrial baseline (1881-1910). Data as of 1/12/2023

Observations of the climate system are based on direct physical and biogeochemical measurements, and remote sensing from ground stations and satellites. Information derived from paleoclimate archives provides a long-term context of past climates. Different types of environmental evidence are used to understand what the Earth's past climate was like and why. Records of historical climate conditions are preserved in tree rings, locked in the skeletons of tropical coral reefs, sealed in glaciers and ice caps, and buried in laminated sediments from lakes and the ocean. Scientists can use those environmental recorders to estimate past conditions, extending our understanding of climate back hundreds to millions of years. Global-scale observations from the instrumental era began in the mid-19th century, and paleoclimate reconstructions extend the record of some quantities back hundreds to millions of years. Together, this provides a comprehensive view of the variability and long-term changes in the atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere and at the land surface.

Paleoclimate

Reconstructions from paleoclimate archives allow current changes in atmospheric composition, sea level and climate systems (including extreme events such as droughts and floods), as well as projections of future climates, to be placed in a broader perspective of past climate variability. Past climate information also documents the behavior of slow components of the climate system including the carbon cycle, ice sheets and the deep ocean for which instrumental records are short compared to their characteristic time scales of responses to perturbations, thus informing on mechanisms of abrupt and irreversible changes. Climate records over past centuries and millennia indicate that average temperatures in recent decades over much of the world have been much higher, and have risen faster during this time period, than at any time for which the historical global distribution of surface temperatures can be reconstructed.

Paleoclimate can help us understand climate change on a geological timescale rather than a few human generations. Figure 2 presents paleoclimate reconstruction for the Northern Hemisphere(NH), which reveals average annual temperatures, for the period 1983-2012 was very likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 800 years and likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years. a) shows the radiative forcing due to volcanic, solar and well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs). Different colors illustrate the two existing data sets for volcanic forcing and four estimates of solar forcing and the grey line represents WMGHGs for the period 850-2000. b) represents the simulated (red) and reconstructed (shading) Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies. The thick red line depicts the multi-model mean while the thin red lines show the multi-model 90% range. The overlap of reconstructed temperatures is shown by grey shading.
Figure 2. a) Radiative forcing (W/m) due to volcanic, solar and well-mixed greenhouse gases for the period 850-2000. b) Reconstructed (grey) and simulated (red) Northern Hemisphere Temperature Anomalies for the period 850-2000. Model-simulated global temperature anomalies for the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago), the mid-Holocene (6,000 years ago), and projection for 2071-2095, under RCP8.5
Model projections ( Figure 3) indicate that twenty-first century global average warming will substantially exceed the Last Glacial Maximum period and even the warmest Holocene conditions; producing a climate state not previously experienced.

What this means

Earth's climate is now changing faster than at any point in the known history of the climate, primarily as a result of human activities. There is scientific consensus that unmitigated carbon emissions will lead to global warming of at least several degrees Celsius by 2100, resulting in high-impacts of local, regional and global risks to human society and natural ecosystems. Global climate change has already resulted in a wide range of impacts across every region of the earth as well as many economic sectors.

Impacts related to climate change are evident across regions and in many sectors important to society, such as human health, agriculture and food security, water supply, transportation, energy, and biodiversity and ecosystems; impacts are expected to become increasingly disruptive in the coming decades. There is very high confidence that the frequency and intensity of extreme heat and heavy precipitation events are increasing in most continental regions of the world. These trends are consistent with expected physical responses to a warming climate. The frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature events are virtually certain to increase in the future as global temperature increases. There is high confidence that extreme precipitation events will very likely continue to increase in frequency and intensity throughout most of the world. Observed and projected trends for other types of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and severe storms, have more variable regional characteristics.

What is Climate Change

Observed changes over the 20th century include increases in global air and ocean temperature, rising global sea levels, long-term sustained widespread reduction of snow and ice cover, and changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation as well as regional weather patterns, which influence seasonal rainfall conditions. These changes are caused by extra heat in the climate system due to the addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. These additional greenhouse gases are primarily input by human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), deforestation, agriculture, and land-use changes. These activities increase the amount of 'heat-trapping' greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The pattern of observed changes in the climate system is consistent with an increased greenhouse effect. Other climatic influences such as volcanoes, the sun and natural variability cannot alone explain the timing and extent of the observed changes.

Climate, refers to the long-term regional or global average of temperature, humidity and rainfall patterns over seasons, years or decades.

While the weather can change in just a few hours, climate changes over longer timeframes. Climate change is the significant variation of average weather conditions becoming, for example, warmer, wetter, or drier-over several decades or longer. It i s the longer-term trend that differentiates climate change from natural weather variability.
Radiative Forcing (RF) and Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) of climate change during the Industrial Era, 1750-2011. Solid bars are ERF, hatched bars are RF, green diamonds and associated uncertainties are for RF.
Human activity leads to change in the atmospheric composition either directly (via emissions of gases or particles) or indirectly (via atmospheric chemistry). Anthropogenic emissions have driven the changes in WMGHG concentrations during the Industrial Era. Radiative forcing (RF) is a measure of the net change in the energy balance of the Earth system in response to some external perturbation; positive RF leads to a warming and negative RF to a cooling. The RF concept is valuable for comparing the influence on global mean surface temperature of most individual agents affecting the Earth's radiation balance. Figure 4 shows the Radiative Forcing and Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF), by concentration change, between 1750 and 2011, with associated uncertainty range.

Figure 5. Total annual anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (gigatonne of CO ₂-equivalent per year, GtCO ₂-eq/yr) for the period 1970 to 2010, by gases.

The graph shows human-caused emissions over time for individual greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide (CO ₂) from fossil fuel use and industry is the single largest contributor to total emissions at 64%, while CO ₂ from land use change and forestry accounts for 11% and methane (CH ₄) contributes 18%. Source, IPCC Working Group III, 2022.

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs)

important physical processes in the climate system; or

the response of the climate system to external drivers (such as increasing greenhouse gases).

Understanding our current and future climate are questions that are too large and too complex to be tackled by a single country, agency or scientific discipline. Through international scientific cooperation and partnerships, the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) supports the coordination of partners and modeling groups participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects, or CMIPs. the CMIPs advance our understanding of the multi-scale dynamic interactions between natural and social systems that affect climate. Over time, as participation in CMIP increased and the number and complexity of climate models expanded, the need for increasingly detailed and organized experiments led to CMIP becoming an integrated framework within which a number of individual Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) are organized. MIPs are sets of experiments and simulations designed to test and compare specific aspects of climate models. Each individual MIP lays out an experimental design aimed at improving understanding of:

The climate science community relies on models to understand the Earth's carbon cycle feedbacks in response to anthropogenic emissions, which lead to changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosol, and thus ultimately result in radiative forcings that drive the climate system changes. The CMIPs provide a coordinating framework for these studies by defining a suite of model experiments for coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation and Earth system models. Next to more process-oriented studies, one suite of experiments under CMIP is always focused on the climate response to different plausible future societal development storylines and associated contrasting emission pathways (scenarios). The goal of these 'scenarios' is to outline how future emissions and land use changes could translate into responses in the climate system. While independent of the regularly produced IPCC-UNFCCC Assessment Reports, CMIP results nevertheless are coordinated and directly inform the Assessments. CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5) provided the foundation for the 5 th Assessment Report released in 2013 and 2014, and the 6 th Assessment Report released in 2021 and 2022, is drawing from CMIP6, the latest collection of simulations done by the climate science community around the world.

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)

The Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) comprises 23 individual MIPs. Future climate change simulations are coordinated within 'ScenarioMIP' for which approximately 30 climate models contributed results. Additionally, the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments are central to CMIP6 as they involve the historical simulations (1850-near present) that allow evaluation of the model's simulation of past climate. While MIPs are given priority by CMIP, and organizations can participate in as many or few as they are able, the DECK experiments are mandatory for any model to enter into the CMIP. Figure 6 illustrates the complex and interconnected nature of CMIP6.

Figure 6. CMIP6 experimental organization.The DECK experiments and surrounding inner ring demonstrate the foundational nature of the historical simulations within the CMIP6 framework. Shown in the outer ring are some of the CMIP6 MIPs which attempt to address the topics displayed in the middle ring.

Understanding Future Climate Scenarios

The scenario approach is used to characterize the range of plausible climate futures and to illustrate the consequences of different pathways (policy choices, technological changes, etc). They are chosen to span a wide range without any tie to likelihood; the scenarios serve as 'what if' cases. Over the past three decades, the approach to formulating the different 'scenarios' has evolved from a climate-centric to an increasingly societal development-centric concept, albeit with the same underlying goal of providing insight into a range of plausible climate outcomes. CMIP5 used Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs) and CMIP6 introduces the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). To distinguish the magnitude of climate forcing, the numbering reflects a designated amount of radiative forcing (a measure of the extent to which GHGs in the atmosphere warm or cool the climate) measured in watts per square meter (W/m ²) reached by 2100 (i.e., 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 W/m ² of change over pre-industrial, respectively). CMIP6 introduced forcing of 1.9 W/m ² to offer insight into the climate response that might be reflective of the Paris-Accord target.

For CMIP6, each SSP drives a corresponding future projection of greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change under the baseline SSP storyline. The SSPs were designed to function in combination with a new and improved version of RCPs. As such, different climate policy futures can be superimposed on SSPs to represent the influence of different climate policy choices (i.e. switching to renewable energy from fossil fuels) and the ease or difficulty in reaching the end-of-century radiative forcing goal specified by an RCP. The different policy scenarios lead to different levels of radiative forcing, with higher values representing stronger climate warming effects. The particular forcing values were chosen to allow easy comparison of the new scenarios to the RCPs used in the CMIP5 and IPCC AR5. Not all possible combinations of SSPs and forcing scenarios are viable and therefore, some do not have simulations. For example, SSP5 which prioritizes fossil-fuel development, thereby establishing a world with high emissions, is incompatible with a low forcing scenario (i.e. 1.9 W/m ²), which would require stricter climate policy and strong mitigation, and therefore low greenhouse gas emissions.

The CMIP model results, as driven by scenarios, have become standard reference inputs for work concerning climate change science, impacts, vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation. Scenarios should be used as tools to help understand the characteristics and magnitude of emerging climate signals to inform decisions. Focusing solely on end-of-century outcomes is an inadequate way to evaluate the usefulness of a given scenario. For purposes of informing societal decisions, shorter time horizons are highly relevant.

CMIP6

The SSPs represent possible societal development and policy paths for meeting designated radiative forcing by the end of the century. CMIP6 includes scenarios with high and very high GHG emissions (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and CO ₂ emissions that roughly double from current levels by 2100 and 2050, respectively, scenarios with intermediate GHG emissions (SSP2-4.5) and CO ₂ emissions remaining around current levels until the middle of the century, and scenarios with very low and low GHG emissions and CO2 emissions declining to net zero around or after 2050, followed by varying levels of net negative CO ₂ emissions (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6). Emissions vary between scenarios depending on socio-economic assumptions, levels of climate change mitigation and, for aerosols and non-methane ozone precursors, air pollution controls. Alternative assumptions may result in similar emissions and climate responses, but the socio-economic assumptions and the feasibility or likelihood of individual scenarios are not part of the assessment. Figure 7 presents projected emissions and additional warming causes for each of the SSPs. Figure 8 shows global average temperature rise for the primary Scenarios presented in IPCC AR6.

Figure 7. a) presents the annual anthropogenic (human-caused) emissions over the 2015-2100 period. Shown are emissions trajectories for carbon dioxide (CO ₂) from all sectors (GtCO ₂/yr) (left graph) and for a subset of three key non-CO ₂ drivers considered in the scenarios: methane (CH ₄, MtCH4/yr); nitrous oxide (N ₂O, MtN ₂O/yr); and sulphur dioxide (SO ₂, MtSO ₂/yr), contributing to anthropogenic aerosols in panel (b). b) demonstrates the change in global surface temperature (°C) in 2081-2100 relative to 1850-1900 given the warming contributions by groups of anthropogenic drivers and by scenario, with indication of the observed warming to date. Bars and whiskers represent median values and the very likely range, respectively. Within each scenario bar plot, the bars represent: total global warming (°C); warming contributions from changes in CO ₂; non-CO ₂ greenhouse gases and net cooling from other anthropogenic drivers ('aerosols and land use' bar).

Figure 8. The amount of climate change by the end of the century depends on decisions we make today. If we reduce CO ₂ amounts to stop increasing after 2050, global average temperature will increase from 1-1.5°C, and this is considered a best case scenario (blue line in graph). If we don't reduce CO ₂ and the amounts continue to increase, the worst case scenario warming will be 4.5-5°C (red line in graph). Source, IPCC Working Group I, 2021.

Narrative descriptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways:

SSP1 "Sustainability" (Low challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
The world shifts gradually, but pervasively, toward a more sustainable path, emphasizing more inclusive development that respects perceived environmental boundaries. Management of the global commons slowly improves, educational and health investments accelerate the demographic transition, and the emphasis on economic growth shifts toward a broader emphasis on human well-being. Driven by an increasing commitment to achieving development goals, inequality is reduced both across and within countries. Consumption is oriented toward low material growth and lower resource and energy intensity. The combination of directed development of environmentally friendly technologies, a favorable outlook for renewable energy, institutions that can facilitate international cooperation, and relatively low energy demand results in relatively low challenges to mitigation. At the same time, the improvements in human well-being, along with strong and flexible global, regional, and national institutions imply low challenges to adaptation.

SSP2 "Middle of the Road" (Medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
The world follows a path in which social, economic, and technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns. Development and income growth proceeds unevenly, with some countries making relatively good progress while others fall short of expectations. Global and national institutions work toward but make slow progress in achieving sustainable development goals. Environmental systems experience degradation, although there are some improvements and overall the intensity of resource and energy use declines. Global population growth is moderate and levels off in the second half of the century. Income inequality persists or improves only slowly and challenges to reducing vulnerability to societal and environmental changes remain. These moderate development trends leave the world, on average, facing moderate challenges to mitigation and adaptation, but with significant heterogeneities across and within countries

SSP3 "Regional Rivalry" (High challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
A resurgent nationalism, concerns about competitiveness and security, and regional conflicts push countries to increasingly focus on domestic or, at most, regional issues. Policies shift over time to become increasingly oriented toward national and regional security issues. Countries focus on achieving energy and food security goals within their own regions at the expense of broader-based development. Investments in education and technological development decline. Economic development is slow, consumption is material-intensive, and inequalities persist or worsen over time. Population growth is low in industrialized and high in developing countries. A low international priority for addressing environmental concerns leads to strong environmental degradation in some regions. Growing resource intensity and fossil fuel dependency along with difficulty in achieving international cooperation and slow technological change imply high challenges to mitigation. The limited progress on human development, slow income growth, and lack of effective institutions, especially those that can act across regions, implies high challenges to adaptation for many groups in all regions.

SSP5 "Fossil-fueled Development" (High challenges to mitigation, low challenges to adaptation)
This world places increasing faith in competitive markets, innovation and participatory societies to produce rapid technological progress and development of human capital as the path to sustainable development. Global markets are increasingly integrated. There are also strong investments in health, education, and institutions to enhance human and social capital. At the same time, the push for economic and social development is coupled with the exploitation of abundant fossil fuel resources and the adoption of resource and energy intensive lifestyles around the world. All these factors lead to rapid growth of the global economy, while global population peaks and declines in the 21st century. Local environmental problems like air pollution are successfully managed. There is faith in the ability to effectively manage social and ecological systems, including by geo-engineering if necessary. While local environmental impacts are addressed effectively by technological solutions, there is relatively little effort to avoid potential global environmental impacts due to a perceived tradeoff with progress on economic development. The strong reliance on fossil fuels and the lack of global environmental concern result in potentially high challenges to mitigation. The attainment of human development goals, robust economic growth, and highly engineered infrastructure results in relatively low challenges to adaptation to any potential climate change for all but a few.

For a complete description of SSP Narratives, see O'Neill et al. 2017

CMIP5
GHG Emission Pathways for each RCP from 2000-2100. Source, IPCC Working Group I, 2013
The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), presented in CMIP5, describe four different 21st century pathways. The RCPs include a stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) and one scenario with high GHG emissions (RCP8.5). Scenarios without additional efforts to constrain emissions ('baseline scenarios') lead to pathways ranging between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Each RCP shows the planet trapping progressively higher amounts of energy from RCP2.6 (the lowest) to RCP8.5 (the highest). Figure 9 shows the GHG emission pathways for each RCP through to the end of the century.

Stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6): A "peak-and-decline" scenario; its radiative forcing level first reaches a value of around 3.1 W/m ² by mid-century and returns to 2.6 W/m 2 by 2100. In order to reach such radiative forcing levels, GHG emissions (and indirectly emissions of air pollutants) are reduced substantially over time. RCP2.6 is representative of a scenario that aims to keep global warming likely below 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures

Medium-low emissions scenario (RCP4.5): A stabilization scenario which assumes action is taken to curb climate change by all countries resulting in a global average temperature rise of no more than 2 ºC and 3 ºC above pre-industrial temperature levels by the year 2100.

Medium-high emission scenario (RCP6.0): A stabilization scenario in which total radiative forcing is stabilized shortly after 2100, without overshoot by the application of a range of technologies and strategies for reducing GHG emissions

High-end emissions scenario (RCP8.5): This scenario represents the extreme end of plausible climate change, delivering an estimated global average temperature increase of approximately 5-6ºC by 2100, relative to pre-industrial temperature levels. RCP8.5 is commonly recognized as 'business as usual'.

RCP scenarios are described below.

Individual Models vs. Multi-Model Ensembles

Climate models are mathematical representations of processes important in the Earth's climate system. When a climate model is run it produces a 'simulation' of future climate. Multiple simulations form an ensemble. A multi-model ensemble (MME) therefore is a large number of climate model simulations. CCKP prioritizes use of MMEs for its projections as multi-model ensembles are more robust and proven to be most successful in representing the range of expected changes. Differences between the spatial structure of the data and the structure of the reality it represents must also be understood and considered in order to adequately model the impact of spatial uncertainty on model applications. While, individual models are noisier, on occasion they may better reflect the range of variability compared to the multi-model ensemble that is generally too smooth. Individual models can also have systematic biases that present themselves as strong outliers. A comparison with the multi-model ensemble is helpful to identify these potential biases and outliers.

Variability, Trends, Uncertainty

Decadal, inter-annual, and inter-seasonal variability exists across the climate system. Internal variability can diminish the relevance of trends over periods as short as 10 to 15 years from long-term climate change. A critical effort of projecting climate change is to understand if 'change' is part of the natural variability or if projected change reveals trends that are statistically significant from natural variability. Due to this, natural variability trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not, in general, reflect longer-term climate trends.

Uncertainty exists for any future projection. While advances continue to be made in the understanding of climate physics and the response of the climate system to increases in greenhouse gases, many uncertainties are likely to persist. The rate of future global warming depends on future emissions, feedback processes that dampen or reinforce disturbances to the climate system, and unpredictable natural influences on climate, like volcanic eruptions. Uncertain processes that will affect how fast the world warms for a given emissions pathway are dominated by cloud formation, but also include water vapor and ice feedbacks, ocean circulation changes, and natural cycles of greenhouse gases. Although information from past climate changes largely corroborates model calculations, this is also can have a degree of uncertainty due to potentially important factors about which we have incomplete information.

References

Clark, P., Shakun, J., Marcott, S. et al., 2016: Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change. Nature Clim Change 6, 360-369. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2923

Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., & Taylor, K. E. (2016). Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(5), 1937-1958. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016.

IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: Technical Summary. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. URL: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_TS_FINAL.pdf

IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. URL: https://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/ipcc/ipcc/resources/pdf/IPCC_SynthesisReport.pdf

IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. In Press. URL: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2014: Representative Concentration Pathways Database. URL: https://iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/TransitionstoNewTechnologies/RCP.en.html

Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., et al., 2014: A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions, Climatic Change 122:401-414. DOI: doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0971-5

O'Neill, B., Tebaldi, C., Van Vuuren, D., et al., 2016: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geoscience Model Development 9, 3461-3482. DOI: doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016

O'Neill, B., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. et al., 2017: The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change 42, 169-180. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004

O'Neill, B., Carter, T., Ebi, K., et al., 2020: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nature Climate Change 10, 1074-1084. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0

Riahi, K. van Vuuren, D., Kriegler, E., et al. 2017: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environmental Change 42, 153-168. DOI: doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009

Van Vuuren, D., Edmonds, J. Kainuma, M., et al., 2011: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change volume 109, Article number: 5. DOI: doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

World Climate Research Program (WCRP), 2021: WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). URL: https://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgcm-cmip

World Climate Research Program (WCRP), 2021: PMIP - Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project. URL: https://www.wcrp-climate.org/modelling-wgcm-mip-catalogue/cmip6-endorsed-mips-article/1064-modelling-cmip6-pmip

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World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal

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The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) provides global data on historical and future climate, vulnerabilities, and impacts. Explore them via Country and Watershed views. Access synthesized Country Profiles to gain deeper insights into climate risks and adaptation actions.

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Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

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The rate of change since the mid-20th century is unprecedented over millennia.

Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 800,000 years, there have been eight cycles of ice ages and warmer periods, with the end of the last ice age about 11,700 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era - and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth's orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.

This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution. (Credit: Luthi, D., et al.. 2008; Etheridge, D.M., et al. 2010; Vostok ice core data/J.R. Petit et al.; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record.) Find out more about ice cores (external site).

The current warming trend is different because it is clearly the result of human activities since the mid-1800s, and is proceeding at a rate not seen over many recent millennia. It is undeniable that human activities have produced the atmospheric gases that have trapped more of the Sun's energy in the Earth system. This extra energy has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land, and widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have occurred.

Do scientists agree on climate change?

Yes, the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists - 97 percent - agree that humans are causing global warming and climate change.

detailed answer

Earth-orbiting satellites and new technologies have helped scientists see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate all over the world. These data, collected over many years, reveal the signs and patterns of a changing climate.

Scientists demonstrated the heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases in the mid-19th century. Many of the science instruments NASA uses to study our climate focus on how these gases affect the movement of infrared radiation through the atmosphere. From the measured impacts of increases in these gases, there is no question that increased greenhouse gas levels warm Earth in response.

"Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal."

- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that Earth's climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly 10 times faster than the average rate of warming after an ice age. Carbon dioxide from human activities is increasing about 250 times faster than it did from natural sources after the last Ice Age.

References

References
Header image shows clouds imitating mountains as the sun sets after midnight as seen from Denali's backcountry Unit 13 on June 14, 2019. Credit: NPS/Emily Mesner

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Climate Change Evidence: How Do We Know?

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Vital Signs of the Planet: Global Climate Change and Global Warming. How do we know it's happening? Here's the evidence.

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ENSENADA, Mexico (AP) - Tropical Storm Hilary swirled northward Sunday just off the coast of Mexico's Baja California peninsula, no longer a hurricane but still carrying so much rain that forecasters said "catastrophic and life-threatening" flooding is likely across a broad region of the southwestern U.S.

As of 8 a.m. Pacific time, Hilary was located about 220 miles (350 kilometers) south-southeast of San Diego, the National Hurricane Center reported. Hilary had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 kph) and was moving northwest at 25 mph (41 kph).

The Mexican cities of Ensenada and Tijuana remained directly in the tropical storm's path, and meteorologists warned that despite weakening, the storm remained treacherous.

One person drowned Saturday in the Mexican town of Santa Rosalia, on the peninsula's eastern coast, when a vehicle was swept away in an overflowing stream. Rescue workers managed to save four other people, said Edith Aguilar Villavicencio, the mayor of Mulege township.

It was not immediately clear whether officials considered the fatality related to the hurricane, but video posted by local officials showed torrents of water coursing through the town's streets.

Forecasters said the storm was still expected to enter the history books as the first tropical storm to hit Southern California in 84 years, bringing flash floods, mudslides, isolated tornadoes, high winds and power outages. Authorities issued an evacuation advisory for Santa Catalina Island, urging residents and beachgoers to leave the tourist destination 23 miles (37 kilometers) off the coast.

Elizabeth Adams, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service San Diego office, said rain could fall up to 3 inches (7.62 centimeters) an hour across Southern California's mountains and deserts, from late Sunday morning into the afternoon. The intense rainfall during those hours could cause widespread and life-threatening flash floods.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency, and officials had urged people to finish their preparations before sundown Saturday. It would be too late by Sunday, one expert said.

The hurricane is the latest major climate disaster to wreak havoc across the U.S., Canada and Mexico. Hawaii's island of Maui is still reeling from last week's blaze that killed over 100 people and ravaged the historic town of Lahaina, making it the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century. In Canada, firefighters on Saturday continued to battle blazes during the nation's worst fire season on record.

Hilary already brought heavy rain and flooding to Mexico and the southwestern U.S. on Saturday, ahead of the storm's expected Sunday border crossing. Forecasters warned it could dump up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) - a year's worth of rain for some areas - in southern California and southern Nevada.

"This does not lessen the threat, especially the flood threat," Jamie Rhome, the U.S. National Hurricane Center's deputy director, said during a Saturday briefing to announce the storm's downgraded status. "Don't let the weakening trend and the intensity lower your guard."

Meteorologists also expected the storm to churn up "life-threatening" surf and rip currents, including waves up to 40 feet (12 meters) high, along Mexico's Pacific coast. Dozens sought refuge at storm shelters in the twin resorts of Los Cabos at the southern tip of the Baja peninsula, and firefighters rescued a family in San Jose del Cabo after the resort was hit by driving rain and wind.

In Tijuana, fire department head Rafael Carrillo voiced the fear at the back of everyone's mind in the border city of 1.9 million people, particularly residents who live in homes on steep hillsides.

"If you hear noises, or the ground cracking, it is important for you to check it and get out as fast as possible, because the ground can weaken and your home could collapse," Carrillo said.

Tijuana ordered all beaches closed Saturday, and set up a half dozen storm shelters at sports complexes and government offices.

Mexico's navy evacuated 850 people from islands off the Baja coast, and deployed almost 3,000 troops for emergency operations. In La Paz, the picturesque capital of Baja California Sur state on the Sea of Cortez, police patrolled closed beaches to keep swimmers out of the whipped-up surf.

The U.S. hurricane center posted tropical storm and potential flood warnings for Southern California from the Pacific coast to interior mountains and deserts as far north as eastern Oregon and Idaho. The San Bernardino County sheriff issued evacuation warnings for several mountain and foothill communities ahead of the storm, while Orange County sent out its own alert for anyone living in a wildfire burn scar in the Santa Ana Mountains' Silverado and Williams canyons.

Authorities in Los Angeles scrambled to get the homeless off the streets and into shelters, and officials ordered all state beaches in San Diego and Orange counties closed.

Across the region, municipalities ran out of free sandbags and grocery shelves emptied out as residents stockpiled supplies. The U.S. National Park Service closed California's Joshua Tree National Park and Mojave National Preserve to keep visitors from becoming stranded amid flooding.

Major League Baseball rescheduled three Sunday games in Southern California, moving them to Saturday as part of split doubleheaders, and SpaceX delayed the launch of a satellite-carrying rocket from a base on California's central coast until at least Monday.

The White House said President Joe Biden had been briefed on the latest preparedness plans ahead of the hurricane's turn to the U.S. "I urge everyone, everyone in the path of this storm, to take precautions and listen to the guidance of state and local officials," he said.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency announced that it has officials inside California's emergency preparedness office and teams on standby with food, water and other help as needed.

Hilary on Friday had rapidly grown into an exceedingly dangerous Category 4 major hurricane, with its top sustained winds peaking at 145 mph (230 kph). Its winds dropped to 115 mph (185 kph) early Saturday as a Category 3 storm, before further weakening to 100 mph (161 kph) as a Category 2.

By Sunday it was moving north-northwest at 21 mph (33 kph). The hurricane brushed past Punta Eugenia on the Pacific coast and was expected to make landfall along a sparsely populated area of the peninsula south of the Pacific port city of Ensenada.

Meanwhile one of several budding storm systems in the Atlantic Ocean became Tropical Storm Emily on Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was located far from land, about 1,000 miles (1,615 kilometers) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 kph). Emily was moving at about 10 mph (17 kph) in the open ocean.

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This story was first published on August 19 and 20, 2023, datelined CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico. It was updated on August 20, 2023 to correct the attribution for storm updates to the National Hurricane Center, not the National Weather Center.

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Associated Press contributors include Ignacio Martinez in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico; Stefanie Dazio and John Antczak in Los Angeles, Seth Borenstein in Washington, Maria Verza and Mark Stevenson in Mexico City, Julie Watson in San Diego, and Eugene Garcia in Newport Beach, California.

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Tropical Storm Hilary swirls northward packing deadly rainfall along Mexico's Baja coast

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Hurricane Hilary is headed for Mexico's Baja California and the U.S. National Hurricane Center is predicting "catastrophic and life-threatening flooding" for the peninsula and for the southwestern United States.

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Wild fire in Canada article posted today Aug,21st

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As thousands flee homes across British Columbia from wildfires, chiefs in one region report progress

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Firefighters are reporting making progress battling wildfires in a region of British Columbia where homes have been destroyed or damaged in recent days.

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This article from June 30th 2022 about how ozone and global warming are affecting the weathers in Antarctic

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Antarctica and climate change - British Antarctic Survey

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Introduction According to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, human activities have been the dominant driver of global climate change since the mid-20th century. Antarctica, and the Southern Ocean that surrounds …

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The planet is warming, from North Pole to South Pole. Since 1906, the global average surface temperature has increased by more than 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius)- even more in sensitive polar regions. And the impacts of rising temperatures aren't waiting for some far-flung future-the effects of global warming are appearing right now. The heat is melting glaciers and sea ice, shifting precipitation patterns, and setting animals on the move.

Many people think of global warming and climate change as synonyms, but scientists prefer to use "climate change" when describing the complex shifts now affecting our planet's weather and climate systems. Climate change encompasses not only rising average temperatures but also extreme weather events, shifting wildlife populations and habitats, rising seas, and a range of other impacts. All of these changes are emerging as humans continue to add heat-trapping greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

Scientists already have documented these impacts of climate change:

Ice is melting worldwide, especially at the Earth's poles. This includes mountain glaciers, ice sheets covering West Antarctica and Greenland, and Arctic sea ice. In Montana's Glacier National Park the number of glaciers has declined to fewer than 30 from more than 150 in 1910.

Much of this melting ice contributes to sea-level rise. Global sea levels are rising 0.13 inches (3.2 millimeters) a year. The rise is occurring at a faster rate in recent years and is predicted to accelerate in the coming decades.

Rising temperatures are affecting wildlife and their habitats. Vanishing ice has challenged species such as the Adélie penguin in Antarctica, where some populations on the western peninsula have collapsed by 90 percent or more.

As temperatures change, many species are on the move. Some butterflies, foxes, and alpine plants have migrated farther north or to higher, cooler areas.

Precipitation (rain and snowfall) has increased across the globe, on average. Yet some regions are experiencing more severe drought, increasing the risk of wildfires, lost crops, and drinking water shortages.

Some species-including mosquitoes, ticks, jellyfish, and crop pests-are thriving. Booming populations of bark beetles that feed on spruce and pine trees, for example, have devastated millions of forested acres in the U.S.

Other effects could take place later this century, if warming continues. These include:

Sea levels are expected to rise between 10 and 32 inches (26 and 82 centimeters) or higher by the end of the century.

Hurricanes and other storms are likely to become stronger. Floods and droughts will become more common. Large parts of the U.S., for example, face a higher risk of decades-long "megadroughts" by 2100.

Less freshwater will be available, since glaciers store about three-quarters of the world's freshwater.

Some diseases will spread, such as mosquito-borne malaria (and the 2016 resurgence of the Zika virus).

Ecosystems will continue to change: Some species will move farther north or become more successful; others, such as polar bears, won't be able to adapt and could become extinct.

Read next: Is Global Warming Real?

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The planet is warming, from North Pole to South Pole, and everywhere in between.

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This article is about an earthquake that happen in Haiyuan in 1920 that destroyed people homes and buildings

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The 1920 Haiyuan Earthquake: One of the 20th Century’s Deadliest

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A century ago, on December 16, 1920, a massive earthquake struck Haiyuan County in north-central China’s remote Gansu Province.

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Chicago River flooding concerns, flash flooding closes expressways

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This is all weather events from 2000-2021 that was over a Billion dollars in damages.

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This is a video of how climate change is fueling natural disasters

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How climate change is fueling natural disasters around the globe

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This a video of damages from hurricane Ian

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Video: Florida Business Owner Assesses Damage Left by Hurricane Ian

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Nathan Andrews, the owner of a kitchen cabinet supply company, surveyed the wreckage of his warehouse in Cape Coral, Fla., the day after Hurricane Ian ripped through.

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This is a video of a deadly flodding taking down houses and destroying everything.

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Secondary source on nuclear power plant.

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Nuclear power comes from nuclear fission

Nuclear power plants heat water to produce steam. The steam is used to spin large turbines that generate electricity. Nuclear power plants use heat produced during nuclear fission to heat water.

In nuclear fission, atoms are split apart to form smaller atoms, releasing energy. Fission takes place inside the reactor of a nuclear power plant. At the center of the reactor is the core, which contains uranium fuel.

The uranium fuel is formed into ceramic pellets. Each ceramic pellet produces about the same amount of energy as 150 gallons of oil. These energy-rich pellets are stacked end-to-end in 12-foot metal fuel rods. A bundle of fuel rods, some with hundreds of rods, is called a fuel assembly. A reactor core contains many fuel assemblies.

The heat produced during nuclear fission in the reactor core is used to boil water into steam, which turns the blades of a steam turbine. As the turbine blades turn, they drive generators that make electricity. Nuclear plants cool the steam back into water in a separate structure at the power plant called a cooling tower, or they use water from ponds, rivers, or the ocean. The cooled water is then reused to produce steam.

Containment dome of a nuclear reactor

Source: Stock photography (copyrighted)

Nuclear power plants have generated about 20% of U.S. electricity since 1990

As of July 1, 2022, 92 nuclear reactors were operating at 54 nuclear power plants in 28 states. Thirty-two of the plants have two reactors, and three plants have three reactors. Nuclear power plants have supplied about 20% of total annual U.S. electricity since 1990. Learn more about the U.S. nuclear energy industry.

The United States generates more nuclear power than any other country

In 2020, 33 countries had commercial nuclear power plants, and in 17 of the countries, nuclear energy supplied at least 20% of their total annual electricity generation. The United States had the largest nuclear electricity generation capacity and generated more nuclear electricity than any other country. France, with the second-largest nuclear electricity generation capacity and second-highest nuclear electricity generation, had the largest share-about 69%-of total annual electricity generation from nuclear energy.

Top five nuclear electric generation capacity countries, 2020
Last updated: July 12, 2022

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Nuclear power plants - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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Nuclear power plants heat water to produce steam. The steam is used to spin large turbines that generate electricity. Nuclear power plants use heat produced during nuclear fission to heat water. In nuclear fission, atoms are split apart to form smaller atoms, releasing energy. Fission takes place inside the reactor of a nuclear power plant.

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This is a video of many familys being affected by the severe flooding in cicero and Berwyn back in July.

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People in Chicago US are underwater! The city is sinking! Flooding in Cicero, IL

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This is an article about how climate change is causing more extreme weather

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Is global warming making natural hazards worse? Find out how hurricanes, floods, droughts and wildfires are being affected by climate change - and why hope lies on the horizon.

The world is heating up. According to the  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2023 synthesis report, global surface temperatures between 2011-2020 were 1.1 degrees Celsius (°C) higher than in the period from 1850-1900. Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, it says, "have unequivocally caused global warming."

But is this change in climate causing more extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, wildfires and heat waves?

In the report, the IPCC says climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. It adds that losses and damages from climate change escalate with every increment of global warming.

There is growing evidence that this steady rise in global temperatures is impacting the number, frequency and duration of natural hazards. But it is difficult to gauge the precise impact of climate change on specific extreme weather events as John Scott, Head of Sustainability Risk for Zurich Insurance Group (Zurich), explains.

"It's a complex task to disentangle the natural variations in extreme weather from the effects of climate change. While some climate change impacts are already obvious, such as retreating glaciers and sea level rise from melting land ice, the impact on today's weather is harder to interpret," Scott says.

But meteorologists and climate scientists are beginning to understand how prolonged periods of heat and cold can be closely attributable to ongoing global warming. On land, rising surface temperatures are connected to the likelihood and severity of droughts and wildfires in hot, arid regions. The oceans are heating up, too. In 2022, global ocean surface temperatures were 0.69°C higher than the 1901-2000 average.

Whether climate change has made a disaster event more likely or not is subject to research known as climate attribution science. In our most recent summary of disaster event analyses (post event review capability, PERC), we have looked at whether these events contained a climate change signal.

Fueling dangerous storms

Rising temperatures and warmer seas mean more water vapor evaporates into the atmosphere, providing fuel for hurricanes, typhoons and torrential rain. "If we are creating an atmosphere more loaded with humidity, any storm that does develop has greater potential to develop into an intense storm," explains  George Tselioudis, a research scientist at Columbia University.

Hurricanes, typhoons and rainstorms can in turn cause severe flooding, as can rising sea levels, which could increase by between  0.6 and 1.1 meters by 2100.

"We can see now from the empirical data that hurricanes are behaving differently, they are going further inland where they then become rainstorm and flooding events," says John Scott. "They dump a lot more water on the land because they've picked up more water [due to global warming] while they've been over the ocean."

According to Scott, these natural hazards should alert more people to the fact that global warming is not just causing a steady rise in average temperatures. "Most people don't fully understand the impact of climate change," Scott says. "They hear the phrase 'global warming' and think, 'Oh, everything is just getting a bit warmer,' but it's more complex than that.

"There is evidence that the changing climate is influencing the behavior of the jet stream, which has the effect of localizing weather systems for weeks at a time, causing prolonged rainfall, drought, frost or heat," says Scott. "Most climate scientists agree that over time, climate change will exacerbate chaotic severe weather events. Tropical storms will likely become more impactful, with higher wind speeds, greater aerial extent, changing their typical paths and becoming extra tropical storms or rainstorm flooding events when they eventually hit land."

The need for climate resilience

Even more sobering is the thought that there is no quick fix. Even if the global community meets the 2015 Paris Agreement targets and restricts global warming to well below 2°C and ideally to 1.5°C, communities will still feel the impact of climate change for decades to come. This means that while we tackle the causes of global warming, we also need to minimize its impact. This approach is known as climate resilience.

"When we talk about climate change, we define the risk it presents in three dimensions: hazard, exposure and controls," says Amar Rahman, Climate Resilience at Zurich Resilience Solutions.

"People usually focus on the hazard: there's more rain, more wind, more heat," Rahman explains. "But we develop models and scenarios to help them understand their exposure to those hazards, to identify their vulnerabilities or pain points. Finally, we assess the controls: what can you do to reduce and manage the impact of climate change right now? Climate resilience is about managing those three factors with the tools we have, and not waiting for new data or government regulation before you act. Because if you wait, it will be too late to develop solutions."

One problem, one planet

When confronted by such a complex, long-term and wide-ranging crisis, it can be hard to know what to do and where to start. Severe flooding in New Zealand, heat waves in India or wildfires blazing in California can feel like irresistible forces of nature beyond our individual control. Rahman, however, argues that you can adopt climate resilience as a personal strategy too.

"The solution should not only be driven by governments, businesses and global organizations. It needs to also be spearheaded by us, as individuals, by changing our behavior as consumers and voters."

One of the obstacles to reducing the impact of natural hazards is the sheer universality of the problem. Because global warming affects every continent, every country and indeed every person on the planet, it requires a truly coordinated global solution. This is hard to negotiate and achieve.

John Scott, however, sees cause for optimism in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. "I think what COVID-19 has done is make people realize the importance of global solutions to global risks and that what happens in one country can affect all countries," he says.

"We need to harness existing solutions and all our innovation to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and to build climate resilience, as we did with the development of multiple vaccines in response to the pandemic."

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Is climate change causing more extreme weather?

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Is climate change causing more extreme weather? Learn how hurricanes, floods and wildfires are being affected by global warming.

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This is an article from july 10, 2023 about how deadly floodings are hitting several countries at once

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Schools in New Delhi were forced to close Monday after heavy monsoon rains battered the Indian capital, with landslides and flash floods killing at least 15 people over the last three days. Farther north, the overflowing Beas River swept vehicles downstream as it flooded neighborhoods.

In Japan, torrential rain pounded the southwest, causing floods and mudslides that left two people dead and at least six others missing Monday. Local TV showed damaged houses in Fukuoka prefecture and muddy water from the swollen Yamakuni River appearing to threaten a bridge in the town of Yabakei.

In Ulster County, in New York's Hudson Valley and in Vermont, some said the flooding is the worst they've seen since Hurricane Irene's devastation in 2011.

Although destructive flooding in India, Japan, , Turkey and the United States might seem like distant events, atmospheric scientists say they have this in common: Storms are forming in a warmer atmosphere, making extreme rainfall a more frequent reality now. The additional warming that scientists predict is coming will only make it worse.

That's because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which results in storms dumping more precipitation that can have deadly outcomes. Pollutants, especially carbon dioxide and methane, are heating up the atmosphere. Instead of allowing heat to radiate away from Earth into space, they hold onto it.

While climate change is not the cause of storms unleashing the rainfall, these storms are forming in an atmosphere that is becoming warmer and wetter.

"Sixty-eight degrees Fahrenheit can hold twice as much water as 50 degrees Fahrenheit," said Rodney Wynn, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay. "Warm air expands and cool air contracts. You can think of it as a balloon - when it's heated the volume is going to get larger, so therefore it can hold more moisture."

For every 1 degree Celsius, which equals 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, the atmosphere warms, it holds approximately 7% more moisture. According to NASA, the average global temperature has increased by at least 1.1 degrees Celsius (1.9 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1880.

"When a thunderstorm develops, water vapor gets condensed into rain droplets and falls back down to the surface. So as these storms form in warmer environments that have more moisture in them, the rainfall increases," explained Brian Soden, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Miami.

Along Turkey's mountainous and scenic Black Sea coast, heavy rains swelled rivers and damaged cities with flooding and landslides. At least 15 people were killed by flooding in another mountainous region, in southwestern China.

"As the climate gets warmer we expect intense rain events to become more common, it's a very robust prediction of climate models," Soden added. "It's not surprising to see these events happening, it's what models have been predicting ever since day one."

Gavin Schmidt, climatologist and director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said the regions being hit hardest by climate change are not the ones who emit the largest amount of planet-warming pollutants.

"The bulk of the emissions have come from the industrial Western nations and the bulk of the impacts are happening in places that don't have good infrastructure, that are less prepared for weather extremes and have no real ways to manage this," said Schmidt.

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Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP's climate initiative . The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Deadly flooding is hitting several countries at once. Scientists say this will only be more common

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Lethal flooding has simultaneously hit India, Japan, China, Turkey and the U.S. Northeast. Scientists have long warned that more extreme rainfall is expected in a warming world.

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This video is about a typhoon in the Philippines.

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The Philippines: storm warning - silent disasters

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Fukushima disaster: What happened at the nuclear plant?

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Fukushima disaster: What happened at the nuclear plant?

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A tsunami struck the Japanese plant in 2011, leading to the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl.

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This is a picture from the Canadian wildfire

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this video is about the flooding in Ecuador that damage people lives

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This is a video of many familys being affected by the severe flooding in cicero and Berwyn back in July

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People in Chicago US are underwater! The city is sinking! Flooding in Cicero, IL

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This is a video of people in the water trying to survive during the Maui fires.

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Teen brothers share story of survival after jumping into ocean with mother during Maui fires

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This is an article from 2021 about how climate change has been causing more disasters over the past 50 years.