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(Jameson Harding, Reid Shafron, Sean Lannan)

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John Yvanovich, Jamie Loos, Paul Budge

PSCI 2075

Professor Brown

11/04/2016

In class Assignment 7

Hypothesis:

Countries with higher rates of meat consumption will have a higher level of government efficiency. We believe this as when citizens are well fed and have the liberty to choose what they want to eat they will be more inclined to follow their governments laws. We also believe countries that produce high amounts of meat are usually on the more developed side which usually correlates to a more effective government.

Regression Output:

Call:
lm(formula = effectiveness ~ meat02, data = total)

Residuals:
Government effectiveness scale
Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max
-43.301  -8.837  -1.305   7.824  42.389

Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 24.68858    2.11040   11.70   <2e-16 ***
meat02       0.49342    0.03758   13.13   <2e-16 ***
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Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 15.76 on 151 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.5331, Adjusted R-squared:   0.53
F-statistic: 172.4 on 1 and 151 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Regression Analysis: This regression output shows that our initial hypothesis was true. The coefficient for the variable meat02 shows that for every percentage increase on the government effectiveness scale, there is a .493 percentage increase in the amount of meat the country eats. This relationship showed a high level of significance, thus further proving our hypothesis. Although many reasons may account for this relationship, we still believe that it is because the more meat a country consumes, the more well fed and stable that country will be. Additionally, considering their freedom of choice to eat whatever they want, they will be more likely to abide by their governments laws.

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Hypothesis: We believe that states that have more women representatives in legislature the less instances there will be of children in poverty. Women are typically more nurturing towards children and would help to create more programs that help families with children become less impoverished.

The numbers that our regression produced were surprising to us because it showed that women in legislature really don’t have that much of an impact on lowering the amount of children in poverty. For every one woman increase in the legislature, the rate of impoverished children went down .001. Although they really didn’t have that much of an impact, they still had more than the other variables in our regression which were abortion rates and secularism. These two variables  had a 0.004% decrease and a 0.00012% decrease in children in percentage of children in  poverty. We were disappointed to see that the adjusted R-squared was 0.03421 meaning that about 3% of our data of the variation in the dependent variable is explained. Although our numbers were low this regression supported our hypothesis that the more women in the legislature the less children there will be in poverty. Overall, the numbers in this regression were not very reliable.

Since there was little relationship between children in poverty and women representatives in legislature, we decided to run another variable. This time we ran unemployment and college education in relation to children in poverty. It is no surprise to us that there was a positive correlation between unemployment for every one percent increase in the unemployment there was a  0.013% increase in the amount of children in poverty. While a college education correlated to a 0.003% decrease in the amount of children in poverty. There was also a slight negative correlation between college education and children in poverty. These results were predictable but overall none of the variables we tested had a large impact on children in poverty.

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Why R We Here

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Hypothesis: We predict that states who have a lower amount of abortion restrictions and lower incomes will have a higher percentage of women owned firms. Because women tend to get paid less, we expect that states with more women owned firms will have lower incomes and vise versa. In addition, states with a higher number of abortion laws will have less women owned firms.

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Hypothesis: It is predicted that in more populated rural areas there would be less women suffrage, because rural areas with high population would be less developed. In addition there would be less ethnical fractionalization and more corruption which would lead to less women suffrage.

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The Benchwarmers (Gabe, Dan, Evan)

Assignment 7

Question:

Does a state’s fitness levels effect it’s politics?

Hypothesis:

State’s with a higher percentage of the population that is obese will also have a lower score on the cook index scale. We believe this outcome will occur because in states with a higher conservation population there is in general higher unemployment rates that will correlate directly to obesity. A population with a lower income due to unemployment is more likely to buy cheap, unhealthy food which leads to weight gain and then obesity.

Regression:

Call:

lm(formula = Large ~ cook.index + unemploy, data = total)

Residuals:

Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max

-8.9114 -2.0188  0.4673  2.5458  4.9347

Coefficients:

Estimate Std.   Error       t value     Pr(>|t|)

(Intercept)      24.82481    2.38730   10.399     8.93e-14 ***

cook.index    -0.21201      0.05104   -4.154      0.000137 ***

unemploy      0.78595      0.45289    1.735       0.089218 .

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Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 3.192 on 47 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared:  0.3125, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2833

F-statistic: 10.68 on 2 and 47 DF,  p-value: 0.0001498

Conclusion:

The data proved that as states increase in obesity they are more likely to be conservative which was shown through a negative correlation with the cook index score. A lower score on the cook index scale shows that a state is more likely to vote republican. The data proved our hypothesis wrong that unemployment affected the obesity of a state because the P value indicated the correlation was not significant.

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Hypothesis: States that have more fracked wells will tend to be more Republican, less urbanized, and have a lower per capita income.

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Hypothesis: We believe that states that have decriminalized marijuana are

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Conservative states are known for fighting against legislation that denies citizens of their "civil liberties" they are typically against most regulation of businesses and are not willing to budge much on taking things like firearms from their citizens. For this reason, we hypothesize that states with a higher level of conservatism will also show a higher level of freedom. The variable of freedom is compiled by comparing different types of legislation including taxation, land use, healthcare freedom, alcohol taxes, marijuana, gambling, etc. The states are then ranked from one to fifty. https://www.freedominthe50states.org/how-its-calculated

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Question: How does a states adult obesity percentage correlate to the states unemployment rate, and the percentage of a states population with

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Hypothesis: States with high income per capita have lower alcohol consumption rate percentages compared to states with lower per capita income have higher percentages of alcohol consumption.

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Hypothesis:

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Hypothesis:
We predict that in states whose citizens smoke more packs of cigarettes bimonthly there will be a higher percentage of participation for state food stamps.

Findings/Results:

Conclusion:

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Hypothesis: We predict that the higher the percentage of a state’s population that is Asian Population (2010 Census Bureau) the more likely that state will to vote  for democrats.

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Hypothesis: We predict that states with the death penalty will have a lower crime rate.

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Hypothesis:

We believe the percentage of a state’s immigrant population will have an effect on its per capita income and its democratic representation. With that being said, the higher the percentage of foreign born inhabitants will result in a lower per capita income.In return a lower percent of immigrants a higher per capita income.

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Hypothesis:

We believe the percentage of a state’s immigrant population will have an effect on its per capita income. With that being said, the higher the percentage of foreign born inhabitants will result in a lower per capita income.In return a lower percent of immigrants a higher per capita income.

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Question: Does minimum wage affect the level of unemployment?
Hypothesis: We think that as the minimum wage rises, the unemployment rate will also rise accordingly.

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Question: How will living in the South,  being more democratic, and  being over the age of 64 affect access to internet use?
Hypothesis: Living in the South will have a negative effect on having access to internet use.

Conclusion: Our data does confirm our hypothesis. It shows a clear negative correlation with living in the South and having access to internet use. States in the South are typically more traditional, thus not as coerced by 21st century technological advances.  Also there appears to be not as much as correlation with being over the age of 64 which is surprising considering people of old age don't care for technology as younger people.  There is also a correlation with being a democratic and having access to internet use.

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Hypothesis: States that have less average days of sunshine will have higher crime rates.

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Hypothesis: We predict that states who have an increase in third party voters, there will be an increase in women in legislature.

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Question: How will a state's church attendance effect the population of that state that hunts?

Hypothesis: States with higher christian church services attendance will tend to have a higher population of people that hunt. We believe that people who are christian tend to be more conservative. And hunters tend to be more conservative, therefore, church attendees will have a positive correlation with hunting population.

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Hypothesis: Countries with higher rates of meat consumption will have a higher level of government efficiency. We believe this as when citizens are well fed and have the liberty to choose what they want to eat they will be more inclined to follow their governments laws.

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Hypothesis: In a concerningly inactive America we believe data on how physically active a state is will be telling of a number of other societal and political factors. Specifically we wanted to look into how physical activity can affect the political party representation of a state. In order to do this we looked into how the percent of the adult population that is active leads to a more democratic state. Physical activity is telling of political identification for a variety of reasons, chiefly because more active people are are more concerned with the environmental health of their surroundings, with environmental regulations being a central issue to the democratic party it is no wonder physically active people are more likely to vote blue.

Call:

lm(formula = total$cook.index ~ total$per.active)

Residuals:

Higher scores more Dem

Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max

-21.9077  -4.4554   0.8945   5.5688  14.6024

Coefficients:

Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)

(Intercept)      -54.1561    26.2674  -2.062   0.0447 *

total$per.active   0.6714     0.3409   1.970   0.0546 .

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Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 8.704 on 48 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared:  0.07479, Adjusted R-squared:  0.05552

F-statistic:  3.88 on 1 and 48 DF,  p-value: 0.05464

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Hypothesis.

We believe that the warmer the state is, will have a close association with the percent of people over 65. As a states mean annual temperature in creases, the percent of senior citizens will also increase. We will measure this with the “over64” variable in the states data set.

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Hypothesis: We hypothesize that states that are more conservative, as indicated by the cook index, will have higher rates of teen pregnancy.

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Hypothesis: We believe that as the percentage of participation of women in the work force increases, there will be a higher percentage of women legislators in the state.

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Do states with lower percapita income have lower standardized test scores?
Hypothesis: Do to lower amount of funds, State's with lower percapita income will also have lower test scores.

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Hypothesis
We hypothesize that as the percent of the population that is overweight increase there will be a decrease in percent of the population that smokes cigarettes

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We hypothesize that the higher percentage of men married more than once in a state will reflect less strict religious values, but more conservative political values.

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Research Question: Does the percentage of population a state has under probation affected by the amount of education adults have?
Hypothesis:

States with higher percentage of educated adults will then have lower percentage of adults on probation.

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We hypothesize that as higher percentages of a state's population that attend the highest attended University football game, there will be a lower percentage of the population that vote.

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As the substance and alcohol abuse rate increase in a state, the unemployment rate will also increase

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Hypothesis:The higher the percentage of people in age range of 18-24 in a state, there is going to be a higher percentage vehicle crash percentage in that state.

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Research Question:
Do minority incarceration rates increase within urban populous states

As percent urban population increases, the incarceration rate within states will generally decrease because criminal populations are a minority of total state population. It is also expected that minority groups will have higher incarceration rates within more urban populous states.

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Research Question:
Does a lower household median income have an effect on the number of fast food restaurants being built per capita.

Hypothesis:
With a lower household median income in a state, we can expect more fast food restaurants to be built in that state.

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Hypothesis: The percent of people who drive drunk in a state will be strongly related to the unemployment rate.

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Hypothesis: As the substance and alcohol abuse rate increases, the unemployment rate will also increase.

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Hypothesis: The percent of people

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Hypothesis: The

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Hypoth

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Hypothese

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Research Question: Does a state minimum wage affect their unemployment rate?

Hypothesis: The states with a higher minimum wage will have lower unemployment rate because an increase of wage will give individuals an incentive to work.

Variables:
Independent Variable- Minimum wage
Dependent Variable- unemployment rate

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Research Question:
Is there a relationship between police brutality and conservatism in each state (if we control for racial diversity within each state)?

Hypothesis: States that are more conservative will have increased rates of police brutality regardless of the racial diversity of the population.

Variables:
independent conpct.m (percent conservative)
control: blkpct08 (percent black)
dependent: MERGE: brutality (civilians killed by police in each state)

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The higher the number of DUIs given in each state, the higher the number of fatal motor vehicle accidents.