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Singapore's longest spell of negative inflation finally came to an end last month on the back of gradually recovering commodity prices and brighter prospects for global growth in the coming year.

After 24 straight months of sliding readings, the consumer price index - the main measure of inflation - was flat in November, compared with the same month a year ago.

Lower oil and car prices and falling accommodation costs - partly due to the soft property market - have been the main drivers behind this long bout of negative inflation.

However, prices of necessities such as food, education and healthcare have continued to inch upwards over this period. That is why the central bank does not regard this run of falling prices as "deflation" - which indicates a chronic lack of demand across an economy.

Last month's zero per cent inflation rate was an important milestone, said UOB economist Francis Tan. "It shows that we may start to experience some inflation in 2017. Some inflation is good as it could signal stronger demand."

Yesterday's inflation data came alongside figures from the Economic Development Board showing that manufacturing output jumped 11.9 per cent in November over the same month last year, the fastest pace since March 2014.

This means full-year economic growth could come in stronger than previously expected.

"Although it may still be too early to make a conclusion, stronger economic activities for an open economy such as Singapore point to some uplift in global demand," said Mr Tan, who added that this would be accompanied by a lift in inflation.

Rising commodity prices helped end Singapore's longest spate of negative inflation. After crashing to about US$30 a barrel earlier this year, crude oil prices have since rallied past US$50 a barrel, and are on track to rise further next year.

This means households should expect an uptick in utility costs in the coming year, said CIMB Private Bank economist Song Seng Wun.

Last month's non-negative inflation reading also reflected a pick-up in services and food inflation, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Trade and Industry Ministry said yesterday.

Food inflation edged up to 2 per cent from 1.9 per cent in October, due to a larger increase in the prices of non-cooked items such as vegetables and fruit.

Overall services inflation also ticked up last month to 1.5 per cent, compared with a year ago. This was due partly to the progressive reduction of subsidies for MediShield Life premiums, which contributed to a rise in the cost of medical and dental treatment.

These helped lift core inflation - which strips out accommodation and private road transport costs - which rose to 1.3 per cent last month from October's 1.1 per cent.

Government forecasters expect core inflation to average around 1 per cent this year before rising to 1 per cent to 2 per cent next year.

The increase will be gradual because of subdued economic growth and the soft labour market.
SEE BUSINESS

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Longest streak of negative inflation in Singapore ends after two years

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Singapore's longest spell of negative inflation finally came to an end last month on the back of gradually recovering commodity prices and brighter prospects for global growth in the coming year. After 24 straight months of sliding readings, the consumer price index - the main measure of inflation - was flat in November, compared with the same month a year ago.

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-Singapore long term (24 Month) negative inflation ended on November with gradually recovering commodity prices and brighter prospect years to come.-Fall in prices of oil, car prices and accommodation cost- due to soft property market. Increase in price of necessities (food, education, education and healthcare) -Last month's zero per cent inflation rate was an important milestone, said UOB economist. We may expect to see some inflation in 2017.-Manufacturing output jumped 11.9 per cent in November over the same month last year, the fastest pace since March 2014.  -After crashing to about US$30 a barrel earlier this year, crude oil prices have since rallied past US$50 a barrel, and are on track to rise further next year.  -Households should expect an uptick in utility costs in the coming year-Food inflation edged up to 2 per cent from 1.9 per cent in October, due to a larger increase in the prices of non-cooked items such as vegetables and fruit.-Overall services inflation also ticked up last month to 1.5 per cent, compared with a year ago. This was due partly to the progressive reduction of subsidies for MediShield Life premiums, which contributed to a rise in the cost of medical and dental treatment.-These helped lift core inflation - which strips out accommodation and private road transport costs - which rose to 1.3 per cent last month from October's 1.1 per cent.

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-Singapore long term (24 Month) negative inflation ended on November with gradually recovering commodity prices and brighter prospect years to come.-Fall in prices of oil, car prices and accommodation cost- due to soft property market. Increase in price of necessities (food, education, education and healthcare) -Last month's zero per cent inflation rate was an important milestone, said UOB economist. We may expect to see some inflation in 2017.-Manufacturing output jumped 11.9 per cent in November over the same month last year, the fastest pace since March 2014.  -After crashing to about US$30 a barrel earlier this year, crude oil prices have since rallied past US$50 a barrel, and are on track to rise further next year.  -Households should expect an uptick in utility costs in the coming year-Food inflation edged up to 2 per cent from 1.9 per cent in October, due to a larger increase in the prices of non-cooked items such as vegetables and fruit.-Overall services inflation also ticked up last month to 1.5 per cent, compared with a year ago. This was due partly to the progressive reduction of subsidies for MediShield Life premiums, which contributed to a rise in the cost of medical and dental treatment.-These helped lift core inflation - which strips out accommodation and private road transport costs - which rose to 1.3 per cent last month from October's 1.1 per cent.

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Mr Pon, is it safe to say that the economy right now is not doing that well partly because of wage expectations by the market (working force), causing them to hesitate changing jobs.

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-Three in 10 unemployed residents here could not find work after more than six months in September (highest proportion for the period in 14 years.)
-Based on y-o-y, long-term unemployment rate increased (particularly pronounced among residents aged 50 and above, and those with diploma and professional qualifications.)
-Employment rate drops and number of layoffs for the first nine months of this year rose to the highest since the 2009 global financial crisis.
-Layoffs, dipped between the second and third quarters, from 4,800 to 4,220. (Cyclical and/or Structural Unemployment?)
-Jobseekers continued to outnumber the vacancies available for the second quarter in a row
-Improvement over the re-entry rate of 45 per cent at the end of the second quarter.
-Seven in 10 of citizens and permanent residents jobless for at least 25 weeks were aged 40 and above, and the majority of them (about 62 per cent) had degrees, diplomas or professional qualifications.
-Some noted a mismatch in wage expectations.
-Factors-
Mainly older workers displaced by disruptive technology who are reluctant to accept jobs that pay lower wages, or who are not equipped with the skills to cope with new technology. (Structural Unemployment - New Product and/or New or Labour-Saving Technologies)
-
-Government Schemes-
The Professional Conversion Programmes for mid-career switches. (Since most of the unemployed are in their mid-careers.)

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2.5 -3K words

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Group Project for MAEC (Oct 16 Semester)(2)

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GDP (Concept: Economic Growth, Positive Economic Growth rate, Negative Economic Growth Rate, Importance of economic growth)

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GDP (Concept: Economic Growth, Positive Economic Growth rate, Negative Economic Growth Rate, Importance of economic growth)

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Full GDP (Importance of economic growth -> show whether the economy is growing)

- Full Year GDP is 1.8% -> 2016

- Govt expected it to be between 1.0% - 1.5% ->  2016

Manufacturing Sector ( Economic Growth -> compare to previous years. What are the items that affected the Growth in this sector)

- Full Year Growth 6.5% -> 2016

- 6.5% growth was way higher than 1.7% growth from the previous quarter(3rd quarter)

- Growth was driven by the electronics & biomedical manufacturing clusters

- Even though there is continuous contracting in transport engineering and general manufacturing cluster.

- *14.6% growth can be seen in the 4th quarter.

* making a sharp increase from the 8.1% contraction in the previous period.

Service producing industries

- Growth for previous year(2015) was 0.6%

- 0.6% growth was higher than 0.3% growth for the previous quarter

- Which was supported by other services industries (transportation, storage & biz services sectors)

-  Service sector was the main driver of the economy according to the data released by DBS.

Construction sector (Negative Economic growth Rate -> govt policies to enable the economy to recover from the recession.

- Underperform during the last quarter of 2016

- 2.8% contraction on a Yr-on-Yr basis.

- continue from the 0.2% from the previous quarter.

- Private sector construction activities decrease affect greatly on the construction sector.

Economy Outlook in 2017

European Union

- Global economic growth and trade will continue to be affected by the uncertainty by Donald Trump. Who threatens to have a protectionist stand for United States.

- Geopolitical risk will continue to be affected for Europe.

- Due to the election in Germany and France and as Britain continue to exit from European Union.

- Singapore will continue to get affected by Brexit as Singapore is a free market economy.

China

- China will continue will to have a slow growth for 2017

- In the moment of transiting from an export-driven country to a consumption driven model.

- The growth figures which is also known as diminishing demand will be keenly eyed.

- Singapore is a major trading partner with China

SG

- Weak property market

-  economic restructuring efforts

-  rising local interest affected by the US Fedral Reserve.

- expected to have higher interest rate for 2017

- Higher borrowing cost -> weight on household and business spending -> weaken housing market much more. -> decrease in construction activity

- Nomura expected Singapore Economic  growth to be 0.7%

- Singapore Govt expected to have a growth  between 1 and 3%

- Recovery of domestic manufacturing

- key uncertainties of Donald Trump policies affecting the global trade.

- China slowdown

- heightened market volatility(currency and interest rate front)

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Can you list some points of analysis for each article/concept?
- Mr Pon

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Pls do the report in here https://docs.google.com/document/d/1esBnUaZJLaHXLUsPIwczUM_8ZUQ5uSRH8iCyWyrKkoo/edit?usp=sharing

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Topic 3 Inflation Choose 1 of the Article Cheng Hei

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Topic 3 Inflation Choose 1 of the Article Cheng Hei

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GDP -> News Article 1 http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/longest-streak-of-negative-inflation-in-singapore-ends-after-two-years
News Article 2 http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/breaking-singapore-s-record-streak-of-negative-inflation-5-key/3399516.html
More information of Inflation -> http://www.singstat.gov.sg/

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GDP -> News Article 1 http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/long-term-unemployment-spikes-total-employment-shrinks-q3-mom

More information of Unemployment -> http://stats.mom.gov.sg/Pages/Home.aspx

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GDP -> News Article http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/singapore-s-economy-grows-1-8-in-q4-2016-gdp-at-1-8/3408294.html
More information of GDP -> http://www.singstat.gov.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/news/press_releases/advgdp4q2016.pdf