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Elliott & Associates Research
Global Markets: Japan's Death Spiral and its Economic Effects

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Elliott & Associates Research
Global Markets: Japan's Death Spiral and its Economic Effects

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Japan's number of births has hit an all-time low for 4 years in a row, spelling a worrying issue on its already delicate economy.

In 2014, the estimated birth-rate in Japan reached a record low of a mere 1 million while the number of registered deaths reached 1.3 million. Such downward trajectory in the country even worsens the already bad situation with a shrinking and aging population.

As noted by Elliott & Associates Research Global Markets, births in Japan have seen a huge and relentless decline for decades now. Starting in 1973, there was not a year where the fertility rate in Japan hit enough numbers to support a stabilized population. Though there were some recent improvements made, they were still not enough to increase the numbers. The number of deaths that has outnumbered the number of births by the biggest margin yet poses a problem for the government to ensure the small workforce can continue to support growing number of seniors.

Experts would say Japan is in a "death spiral" because its demography has been on a bad situation for a long time now that it is virtually impossible to change its trajectory significantly.

Data shows that the so-called "death spiral" started in the 1970s and has since proceeded in a gradual but steady decline. Indeed, last year's population decline was a record low but that's already something to be expected every year for the next decades.

According to an official from Elliott & Associates Research Global Markets with knowledge of the data, the women of who are of reproductive age are declining which inevitably leads to a decline in the number of kids. To be fair, Japanese women today are having a bit more children on average than they did years ago. However, there are fewer women in the population now who could bear a child so it's still not enough to make up for the difference.

Japan's government bond market has been surprisingly strong even in such demographic issues though this cannot be counted on to continue indefinitely. There will come a time that people will realize Japan won't have enough productive citizens anymore and so won't be able to return debts (except perhaps by printing money).

The Japanese government has already issued a warning that by the year 2060, almost 40% of their population would consist of seniors. As it is, they are already having difficulties supporting the pensioners that make up one fourth of its total population now.

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Elliott and Associates Corporate Advisory Tips Europe Tokyo
Paris Asia : PARI ANSAITA $450,000 A VUODEN KIRJOITTAA TALOUDELLISTA APUA
SARAKKEESEEN VALITTAVAT KULUT

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Elliott and Associates Corporate Advisory Tips Europe Tokyo
Paris Asia : PARI ANSAITA $450,000 A VUODEN KIRJOITTAA TALOUDELLISTA APUA
SARAKKEESEEN VALITTAVAT KULUT

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Kaupunki jossa valituksia edullisuus ääni pois lähes kaikki seinät, Asunnottomuus on tärkeä ratkaisematon kysymys ja asuntojen hinnat pitää kukoistaa, viimeinen asia, me voisimme odottaa lukea taloudellista apua sarakkeessa olisi peruste pari ansaitsemaan yhteenlasketuista tuloista 450000 dollaria työskennellessään kaksi päivää viikossa.

Mutta valitettavasti suru rikkaat ovat todellakin riittävän vakavia oikeuttaakseen ammattiapua. Jos olit mietin, emme viittaa hotelliin "Taloudellinen kasvojenkohotuksen" neuvoja sarakkeen julkaistu Globe and Mail perjantaina.

Artikkeli otsikolla "velka epäilyksiä heittää varjon ammatillinen pari viisi lasta" yhtyy Eric ahdinko, lääkäri, ja Ilsa, hammaslääkäri ja heidän viisi lastaan Vancouverin alueella perhe pelkää velkaantumisesta säilyttää heidän elämäntapaansa.

Mukaan Globe and Mail pari on "elävä vuokraa sukulaisen talossa (he maksavat veroja, Apuohjelmat ja ylläpito)" kun Eric toimii yhden päivän viikossa lääketieteen klinikka ja yhtenä päivänä viikossa opetus yliopistossa. Isla on tällä hetkellä äitiyslomalla. He tekevät parhaillaan $360.000 vuoden tuloja, mutta kun Isla palaa työhön, nousevan 450000 dollaria. Kaikki heidän lapsensa menevät yksityinen koulu ja perhe toivoo live-in lastenhoitajaa.

Edit maapallon sarakkeeseen, kirjoittaja toteaa, että vaikka Eric toimii kaksi päivää viikossa, "lääkäri on selventänyt sanoessaan hän toimii jopa 80 tuntia monta viikkoa työajan ja ylimääräistä päivää ja tuntia sekä lääketieteen ja opetusta."

He omistavat 1,1 miljoonaa dollaria paljon, mikä he haluavat rakentaa, mutta huoli ei ole varaa rakentaa talon "riittävän suuri perheensä ja live-in lastenhoitaja." Ne ovat 800.000 dollaria kiinnitys tästäkin 2,5 prosenttia kiinnostuneena.

Onneksi heille, heidän vanhempansa ovat haluavat tarjota kodin oman luottorajan 1 miljoonaa dollaria auttaa heitä rakentamaan kotiin, mutta pari silti riskejä elää yli varojensa.

Maapallon taloudellinen asiantuntija, Warren MacKenzie, tärkein on HighView Financial Group Toronto, ehdottaa Eric tehdä uhrauksia ja työtä yksi päivä viikossa. "Jos Eric on valmis työskentelemään yksi päivä viikossa klinikalla, he voivat elää varojensa ja vielä varaa rakentaa uusi koti käyttämällä HELOC vanhempien kotiin vakuudeksi," hän sanoo.

Tämä lisäisi hänen vuosittain ottaa 500.000 dollaria plus Islan vuositulot $150,000.

Pari on 6000 dollaria pankin, $180000 RRSP ja 1,1 miljoonaa dollaria omaisuuden omaisuuden, yhteensä $1,286,000 omaisuuteen.

Vaikka perhe ansaitsee noin 25.000 dollaria kuukaudessa, he viettävät enemmän. Maailmaa luettelo niiden suurimmat kuukausittaiset menot 3800 dollaria kiinnitys, $5,450 yksityisen koulun opetusta, $2,800 lastenhoitoa, 2000 dollaria matka- tai lomakohde ja 3000 dollaria niiden RRSP. Yhteensä he viettävät 25,660 kuukaudessa.

Jos olet ymmälläni tämä pari taloudellinen tilanne, et ole ainoa. Tämä saa meidät ajattelemaan, jos tämä ei voi saada rahat riittämään Vancouverissa, joka voi?

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Elliott and Associates renewable energy review europe tokyo paris
asia purchase plan

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Elliott and Associates renewable energy review europe tokyo paris
asia purchase plan

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Elliott and Associates renewable energy review europe tokyo paris
asia purchase plan

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Elliott and Associates renewable energy review europe tokyo paris
asia purchase plan

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Minimize adverse impact of review of renewable energy purchase plan

The Yomiuri Shimbun

The government has drawn up a set of measures in regard to five major electric power utilities that have stopped signing new purchase contracts for electricity generated from solar power and other renewable energy sources.

The crux of the new measures is the expansion of a system designed to call on providers of electricity generated by renewable energy to curb their output whenever there is a sharp increase in the volume of solar power generation.

Renewable energy sources capable of being supplied domestically with minimal impact on the global environment should be used as widely as possible.

If all the solar power facilities that have already been certified by the government operate at capacity, however, there are fears that the utilities’ overall power output could overload their power grids, leading to power outages and other problems.

As the current system for purchasing electricity generated by renewable energy sources is not working efficiently, a drastic review of the system is reasonable.

Under the current renewable energy feed-in system, whenever there is a surplus in power supplies, utilities are allowed to limit their energy intake from solar power providers for up to 30 days a year without paying compensation.

The new measures call for revising this system to allow utilities to restrict the purchase of solar energy-generated electricity with no upper limits on the number of days for contracts reached from now on. The limits on solar power output, which have so far been applied only to solar power businesses, will be applied also to solar power generation by households under the new system.

Such utilities as Kyushu Electric Power Co. and Tohoku Electric Power Co., which have particularly large numbers of solar power purchasing contract applications in their service areas, are believed unable to buy more than about half the solar power-generated electricity from government-certified facilities under the new system.

Suitable energy mix needed

The aim of the new measures — avoiding a situation in which newly certified solar power facilities could become unable to commence power generation by making it easier to adjust the volume of solar power generation through an expansion of curbs on output — should be deemed proper.

However, some solar power suppliers may find themselves losing money if the purchasing volume by utilities falls far below their power supply estimates. There have reportedly been cases in which people who earlier planned to cover part of their housing loans through revenue generated by selling electricity have abandoned their hope of purchasing new homes.

Electric power companies should make efforts to accept electricity generated by renewable energy sources as much as possible.

The purchasing price of electricity generated by solar power was set at ¥40 per kilowatt-hour at the start of the purchasing system in 2012, but the price was later reduced by stages to the current ¥32, which is still about twice as high as prices in Europe. The government is expected to lower the price further, starting from next April.

Immediately before the lowering of the purchasing price in the past, many new renewable energy contract applications with little substance were made, apparently in an effort to secure only the right of having the goodwill of solar power generation business in the future. Such actions aimed solely at obtaining government certification have frequently been repeated. The government, for that matter, should closely examine applications for solar power generation projects to determine if they are reasonable.

A solar energy project that fails to launch its power generation business beyond a scheduled date should, in principle, have its contract canceled.

Introduction of not only solar power but also such other renewable energy as wind and geothermal energy sources — which have diversified characteristics— in a well-balanced manner will help stabilize power supplies.

Regarding solar power generation, which has seen a particularly high number of entrants, more basic reforms should be taken, such as changing the current purchasing system at guaranteed prices to a bidding system.