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Group 6: North Africa

Article: The Ukraine War’s Economic Impact on North Africa: Winners, Losers, and a Dangerous Lack of Long-Term Vision
Link: ISPIISPI

Questions:

1. How has the Ukraine conflict affected food security and commodity prices in North African countries?

2. Identify two industries in North Africa impacted by the war and propose business strategies to address these effects.

3. What are the long-term economic implications for North Africa if the conflict persists?

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Impact of Ukraine War on Global Energy South Asia

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Implications of Russia’s War Against Ukraine for Central Asia

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NEW: From Ukraine to the Arctic: The impact of war on Russia's energy ambitions in the north

1. When the war in Ukraine began in 2022, the whole world felt the impact… and North Africa was no exception!

Ukraine and Russia = major wheat exporters
👉 Many North African countries—like Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco—depend heavily on wheat from Ukraine and Russia to make their daily bread.
But with blocked ports and interrupted exports, the wheat didn’t arrive on time… and prices soared!

What happened?

Prices of bread and other essential foods increased

Shortages of key food items appeared

Low-income families struggled even more

And what about food security?
Without steady access to affordable food, food security weakened.
Governments had to act fast—finding new suppliers or offering subsidies to protect their people.

In short:
The Ukraine conflict isn’t just a distant war—it’s a global food crisis that hit millions of plates across North Africa.

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From Ukraine to the Arctic: The War’s Impact on Russia’s Northern Energy Ambitions

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Two years into the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Western sanctions call into question the future of Russia’s Arctic energy ambitions. Russia aims to boost annual production of liquefied natural gas to 100 million tonnes, thus capturing 20 percent of the global market, by 2030. However, U.S. measures strike at the heart of Russia’s Arctic plans. Sanctions now target project construction, ship-building, and marketability of liquefied gas.

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Group 2: Central Asia

Article: Implications of Russia's War Against Ukraine for Central Asia
Link: Congress.gov | Library of Congress The Russia Program at GW

Questions:

1. What are the primary economic challenges Central Asian countries face due to the Ukraine conflict?

2. Identify two sectors in Central Asia that are significantly impacted and propose business strategies to address these challenges.

3. How is the geopolitical landscape in Central Asia shifting in response to the war?

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Economic Impact of war in Ukraine and in west asia

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Group 4: Southeast Asia

Article: Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Energy Sector in Southeast Asia
Link: ResearchGate

Questions:

1. In what ways has the war influenced energy prices and availability in Southeast Asia?

2. Identify two industries in Southeast Asia affected by energy disruptions and suggest business adaptations.

3. How are Southeast Asian countries adjusting their energy policies in response to the crisis?

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Group 1: South Asia

Article: Impact of Ukraine War on Global Energy and Food Supply Chains: A Case Study of South Asia
Link: ISSI

Questions:

1. How has the Ukraine war disrupted food and energy supply chains in South Asia?

2. Which two industries in South Asia are most affected, and what strategies can businesses adopt to mitigate these impacts?

3. How can South Asian countries collaborate regionally to enhance supply chain resilience?

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Laura Gisela Montañez

Valery Benitez Rozo

Tatiana Vargas

Yeison Bastidas Lozano

Laura Tatiana Cardenas

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Maired Ortiz

Esteban Realpe

Sebastian Guerrero

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1. How has the Ukraine war disrupted food and energy supply chains in South Asia?

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1. How has the Ukraine war disrupted food and energy supply chains in South Asia?

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Key content:

Blockage of Ukrainian ports preventing export of 20 million tons of grain to regions including South Asia

Food price inflation: Russia and Ukraine export nearly one-third of world's wheat and barley

Energy price surge: Russia (world's leading gas exporter with 24.3% of global reserves) facing sanctions

Fertilizer shortage: Russia is the world's largest fertilizer producer, affecting agricultural productivity

Import dependencies exposed: Pakistan (39% of wheat imports from Ukraine), Nepal (100% fuel imports)

Currency depreciation against USD making imports more expensive across South Asia

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3. How can South Asian countries collaborate regionally to enhance supply chain resilience?

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3. How can South Asian countries collaborate regionally to enhance supply chain resilience?

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Regional collaboration opportunities:

Establishing a South Asian Food Reserve System for emergency situations

Developing regional energy sharing agreements and infrastructure

Creating a coordinated approach to sourcing critical imports

Harmonizing trade policies to reduce intra-regional barriers

Joint investment in strategic storage facilities for food and energy

Sharing agricultural technology and best practices

Building regional value chains to reduce external dependencies

Collaborating on renewable energy projects to reduce fossil fuel dependence

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chavarria

Caicedo

Caicedo

Triana

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2 Literature Review

2 文献回顾

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered security crises at multiple levels, covering energy, finance, and food, among which its impact on food security has been the most prominent. Looking at Russia and Ukraine, Russia has long occupied an important position in the global grain supply market, energy supply market, and supply market for fertilizers and other agricultural materials, based on its advantages in resources such as land, energy, and minerals. In the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has tightened its exports of grain, energy, and fertilizers. To a certain extent, this has aggravated the supply and demand imbalance in markets such as grain, energy, and fertilizers, pushed up global market prices of grain and related products, and directly or indirectly increased uncertainty risks in the global grain market. Russia relies on its control of key strategic resources such as grain and energy to take countermeasures against Western anti-Russian forces, further provoking global food security concerns. As for Ukraine, as the conflict is mainly concentrated within its own territory, Ukraine's domestic grain production has consequently suffered a heavy blow. Large areas of land previously used for the production of major grain crops such as corn, wheat, and sunflower seeds have been abandoned. Especially in the east, the main grain-producing area due to its fertile soil, farmland infrastructure and production equipment have been severely damaged, and grain production and harvests have suffered losses that are difficult to accurately estimate. Restrictions on Ukraine's grain and oil exports have caused grain and oil prices to rise in the global market, especially for agricultural products such as sunflower oil, wheat, and corn, for which Ukrainian exports account for a significant share. The most severely affected countries are mainly countries that import large amounts of grain from Ukraine, such as Egypt, China, India, Indonesia, and the Netherlands. From a global perspective: In one respect, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a contraction in food production and supply, disrupting important grain production and supply channels, and lifting the overall grain prices. It has intensified the long-standing food insecurity and hunger-driven panic in low- and middle-income countries that previously suffered from climate change, trade restrictions, and insufficient grain production and storage capacity, and intensified the global food security crisis. In another respect, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused panic on the consumer side and produced a chain reaction, with the frequent occurrence of political instability and social conflicts, especially in low- and middle-income countries, as well as countries and regions that are highly dependent on grain imports and have weak grain self-sufficiency themselves. Typical examples of such countries and regions include states in the Middle East and Africa, which are heavily dependent on the Russian and Ukrainian grain markets. In contrast, countries with high food self-sufficiency levels and strong economies remained relatively calmer ‎. In short, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a negative impact on food security in terms of the production and supply of grain and key agricultural materials, exacerbating the global food security crisis. However, in the context of the food crisis, there are obvious differences concerning the realities faced by different regions and different economies.

俄乌冲突引发了能源、金融、粮食等多层面的安全危机，其中粮食安全问题的影响最为突出。从俄乌双方来看，俄罗斯方面依托土地资源、能源和矿产等资源优势，在全球粮食供给市场、能源供给市场和化肥等农用物资供给市场历来占有重要的地位。俄乌冲突之下俄罗斯收紧粮食、能源和化肥出口，一定程度上加剧了粮食、能源和化肥等市场供需失衡的紧张局势，推高了全球粮食及相关产品的市场价格，直接或问接地增加了全球粮食市场的不确定性风险。俄罗斯凭借对粮食、能源等关键性战略资源的掌控，对西方反俄势力进行反制，进一步引发全球对粮食安全的担忧。而乌克兰方面，冲突主要集中在其本土，因此乌克兰国内粮食生产遭受重创，其中玉米、小麦、葵花籽等主要粮食作物生产土地大面积撂荒，尤其是东部土壤肥沃的粮食主产区农田基础设施和生产设备遭受严重破坏，粮食生产和收获遭受难以精准估量的损失M。乌克兰粮油出口受限导致全球市场粮油价格攀升，尤其是乌克兰出口占比较大的葵花籽油、小麦、玉米等农产品，而受到冲击最严重的也主要是自乌克兰进口粮食规模较大的国家，例如埃及、中国、印度、印度尼西亚、荷兰等国家。而从全球视角来看：一方面，俄乌冲突导致生产和供给端的紧缩，导致重要的粮食生产、供应渠道中断和粮食价格全面上涨，并加剧了中低收入国家因气候变化、贸易限制和粮食生产与储备能力不足而长期存在的粮食不安全和饥饿恐慌，激化了全球性的粮食安全危机；另一方面，俄乌冲突引发消费端的恐慌情绪并产生连锁反应，政局动荡和社会斗争频现，尤其是中低收入国家，以及粮食进口依赖度较高和粮食自己能力较弱的国家和地区，其中较为典型的包括中东和非洲严重依赖俄乌粮食市场的地区，而粮食自给率高和经济实力较强的国家则相对更为从容。总结来看，俄乌冲突从粮食及关键农用物资的生产和供给两方面对粮食安全产生负面冲击，加剧了全球性的粮食安全危机，但不同地区和不同经济体在粮食危机风波下面临的局势存在明显差异。

The food security crisis in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has put all countries on edge. Though the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the event that triggered the food security crisis, to solve the food security problem, one should not only focus on the conflict itself, but also go beyond and look at problems in food security governance. Food security issues have a longstanding history, and the current outbreak is a combined effect of multiple historical factors. Researchers generally hold that emphasis should be made on the uneven distribution of global agricultural resources, climate change and extreme weather ‎, the implementation of climate governance measures, regional conflicts, public health emergencies, rising energy and shipping prices ‎, trade protectionism, food financialization, and many other problems. To benefit in the long-run, we should take a holistic view of how to solve the food security problem. At the same time, some research has noted the reality of the global grain supply chain revealed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and recommended stabilizing the grain supply chain, building a well-established grain purchase and storage mechanism, improving food supply and security capabilities by increasing production and reducing consumption, and paying attention to improving grain self-sufficiency and reducing food dependence on foreign countries. Many Chinese scholars have been keen on China's food security issues and pointed out that we must put forward targeted measures to address the uncertainty of the trade environment, depletion and deterioration of the food production resources and environment, mismatch of resource, elements, and space, non-agricultural usage (非粮化) of cultivated land ‎, high production costs, low quality of grain production and insufficient agricultural S&T innovation, and other factors that restrict Chinese grain production capacity, so as to prevent potential risk spillover from forming systemic risks. At the same time, we must improve the distribution efficiency of production resources, solve the problem of fragility of food production, increase our price negotiating power in the grain market, build secure and controllable food trade channels, and ensure food supply for key food varieties and vulnerable groups.

俄乌冲突之下的粮食安全危机绷紧了各国神经。俄乌冲突是引爆粮食安全危机的导火索，但解决粮食安全问题不应只关注俄乌冲突本身，要跳出俄乌冲突看粮食安全治理问题。粮食安全问题由来已久，是多重历史因素叠加下的集中爆发，研究普遍认为要高度关注全球农业资源分布不均衡、气候变化和极端天气、气候治理措施实施、地区冲突、突发性公共卫生事件、能源和海运价格攀升、贸易保护主义、粮食金融化等诸多问题，以系统性思维解决粮食安全问题是长久之计。同时，部分研究结合俄乌冲突造成全球粮食供应链断裂的现实，分析认为稳定粮食供应链，搭建完备的粮食收储机制，以开源节流提高粮食供给和保障能力，并且要重视提升粮食自给能力，降低粮食对外依存度。国内许多学者聚焦中国粮食安全问题，指出要针对贸易环境的不确定性、粮食生产资源环境恶化、资源要素空问不匹配、耕地非粮化、生产成本高企、粮食生产质量偏低和农业科技创新程度不足明等制约国内粮食生产能力的因素提出针对性措施，预防潜在风险外溢形成系统性风险。同时，要通过提升生产资源的配置效率，解决粮食生产脆弱性问题，提高粮食市场议价能力，构建安全可控的粮食贸易渠道，保障重点粮食品种和弱势群体的粮食供应。

3 New Landscape in Global Food Security in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

3 俄乌冲突下全球粮食安全新变局

数据来源：联合国粮农纠织。图2至图3同。

3.2.1 Supply and Demand: Sharp Contraction in Supply Drove Demand Shifts and Panic Purchasing

3．2．1 供给和需求层面：供给急剧收缩，推动需求转移和恐慌性采购

3.2.2 Price Levels: The Russia-Ukraine Conflict has Pushed up Global Grain Prices, and Grain Price Levels Continue to Remain High

3．2．2 价格层面：俄乌冲突推高全球粮价，粮价水平居高不下

3.3.1 The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Has Changed the Agricultural Product Trade Landscape and Led to the Restructuring of the Global Grain Supply Chain

3．3．1 俄乌冲突改变农产品贸易格局，推动全球粮食供应链重塑

3.3.2 The Russia-Ukraine Conflict is Changing the Food Production Arrangements of Various Countries, which Promotes Global Food Security Governance

3．3．2 俄乌冲突改变各国粮食生产安排，推动全球粮食安全治理

Table 1 Selected countries (regions) with food export restrictions and measures after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

表1 俄乌冲突爆发后部分实施粮食出口限制的国家(地区)及措施情况

3.3.3 The Russia-Ukraine Conflict has Increased Systemic Risks in the Global Economy and Undermined the Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery

3．3．3 俄乌冲突增加全球经济系统性风险，影响疫情后经济复苏

4 Situation and Challenges Facing China's Food Security in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

4 俄乌冲突局势下中国粮食安全面临的形势与挑战

5 Rethinking China's Food Security Strategy in the New Era and Targeted Suggestions

5 新时期中国粮食安全战略的再思考与对策建议

To top

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Global Food Security in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and China's Food Security Policy Options in the New Era - Interpret: China

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Experts from China Agricultural University argue the war in Ukraine will have long-term impacts on food supply chains and the global economy, causing many states to improve agricultural self-sufficiency, hoard supplies, and restrict exports.

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La guerra en Ucrania repercute en todas las regiones del mundo

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Por Alfred Kammer, Jihad Azour, Abebe Aemro Selassie, IIan Goldfajn y Changyong Rhee

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María Pineda

Alison Peláez

Michelle Barón

Alison Salas

Santiago Torres

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Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Southeast Asia

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Group 5: West Asia

Article: Economic Impact of War in Ukraine and in West Asia
Link: Juniper Publishers

Questions:

1. What economic impacts has the Ukraine war had on West Asian countries?

2. Which two sectors are most affected, and what strategies can businesses implement to cope?

3. How is the war influencing trade routes and logistics in West Asia?

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Grupo 3:Camila Medina, Luis roca, Valentina Lugo, ana gutierrez, daniela trujillo

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Grupo 3:Camila Medina, Luis roca, Valentina Lugo, ana gutierrez, daniela trujillo

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valentina Gonzalez - Maribel Casallas -Sebastian Pastor- Valentina Sierra

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valentina Gonzalez - Maribel Casallas -Sebastian Pastor- Valentina Sierra

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Group 3: East Asia

Article: Global Food Security in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and China's Food Security Policy Options in the New Era
Link: Interpret: China

Questions:

1. How has the conflict affected China's food security and supply chains?

2. Which two industries in East Asia are most vulnerable, and what measures can businesses take to adapt?

3. What policy options is China considering to strengthen its food security?

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1. What economic impacts has the Ukraine war had on West Asian countries?

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1. What economic impacts has the Ukraine war had on West Asian countries?

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Russia is a major energy exporter, and the war has created uncertainty in energy markets, contributing to higher oil and gas prices globally. This affects West Asian countries both as energy importers and as potential beneficiaries if they are producers.

1.The Economic Impact of the War in Ukraine on West Asian Countries

The war in Ukraine has generated a series of significant economic impacts on West Asian countries, especially those located around the Red Sea such as Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia. These effects, both direct and indirect, have affected trade, inflation, transportation costs, and food security in the region.

One of the most notable impacts has been the disruption of maritime transport. The attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea—linked in part to the geopolitical context intensified by the war in Ukraine—have forced many shipping companies to avoid this crucial route and opt for alternative paths around the Cape of Good Hope. This detour has increased transit times by approximately two weeks and raised shipping costs by around $1.25 million per trip. Key ports such as Ashkelon in Israel have been affected, and there have been threats disrupting trade in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and even the Horn of Africa.

The war has also contributed to rising inflation and shortages of food and energy. Disruptions in the supply of grains and fossil fuels from Ukraine and Russia—both major exporters—have caused a significant increase in food prices and noticeable shortages in countries heavily dependent on these imports, such as Egypt and Turkey. In addition, the surge in oil prices has impacted countries in the region in two ways: harming energy-importing nations while temporarily benefiting net oil producers.

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Acording the article, he Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted China's food security and supply chains, highlighting vulnerabilities in its reliance on global agricultural imports and prompting strategic shifts in policy and trade relationships.

China has been affected by the disruption of key food and fertilizer exports from Russia and Ukraine. These disruptions have exposed many countries, including China, to challenges in accessing essential commodities. The conflict has led to increased food prices and inflation, which, combined with the disruption of agri-food trade and markets, have further strained China's food supply chains.

In response to these challenges, China has implemented several measures to enhance its food security: Diversification of Import Sources, enhancing Domestic Production and polices Emphasis on Food Security.

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1. What are the primary economic challenges Central Asian countries face due to the Ukraine conflict?

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1. What are the primary economic challenges Central Asian countries face due to the Ukraine conflict?

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The war in Ukraine has had serious economic repercussions for the countries of Central Asia, largely due to their strong economic ties with Russia. As Western sanctions have hit the Russian economy, the ripple effects have been felt across the region. Many Central Asian economies are highly dependent on trade with Russia, and disruptions in supply chains have led to shortages of goods and a sharp rise in inflation.
Additionally, millions of Central Asian migrant workers are employed in Russia, and their remittances represent a vital source of income for their home countries. The weakening of the Russian ruble and economic instability have caused a significant drop in these remittances, directly impacting household incomes and overall economic stability across the region.

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Moscow’s Arctic Projects Amidst the War: Sanctions, LNG projects, Icebreakers and the Northern Sea Route | ISPI

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has strained its economy, affecting critical Arctic projects. Despite delays, these projects remain crucial for Russia’s economic and military strategies.

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At the same time, there has been an increase in maritime insurance and freight costs, driven by the heightened risk perception on trade routes affected by the conflict. Marine insurance premiums have risen by more than 20%, and the price of marine fuel (VLSFO) reached $1,100 per ton in June 2022—a 75% increase compared to pre-conflict levels.

Finally, volatility in global energy markets, stemming from Russia’s position as a major oil and gas exporter, has increased uncertainty around energy prices. This has affected West Asian countries in varying ways: while some face higher costs to import energy, others benefit from the rise in revenues from energy exports.

Overall, these factors have weakened the economies of several West Asian nations, increased poverty levels, and placed additional pressure on regional supply chains.

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What are the long-term economic implications for North Africa if the conflict persists?

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Prolonged structural inflation, especially in food and energy.

Slowdown in economic growth due to pressure on trade balances and public spending.

Increased external debt if subsidies continue without tax reform.

Growing social tension if problems of access to basic goods are not resolved.

Geostrategic risk: greater vulnerability to other international crises and greater dependence on actors such as China or the Gulf countries.

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From minute 4.20 to minute 5.30 he talks about the impact of the war in the last few days

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Russia-Ukraine War: History, Impact, and Future | World Affairs | UPSC 2025 | Drishti IAS English

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This article complements the previous answer

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La guerra en Ucrania repercute en todas las regiones del mundo

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Por Alfred Kammer, Jihad Azour, Abebe Aemro Selassie, IIan Goldfajn y Changyong Rhee

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China’s intensifying focus on food security | FT Food Revolution

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2. Which two sectors are most affected, and what strategies can businesses implement to cope?

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2. Which two sectors are most affected, and what strategies can businesses implement to cope?

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The two sectors most affected are:

- Energy sector: Reliant on energy imports, faced rising costs and supply disruptions due to the global volatility in oil and gas markets caused by the war.

- Agriculture and food security: The war disrupted exports of key agricultural products like wheat and fertilizers from Russia and Ukraine, impacting food supply chains and increasing prices in Asia.

Strategies businesses can implement to cope:

- Diversifying suppliers to reduce dependence on any single country for critical imports.

- Investing in local and regional supply chains to enhance resilience.

- Adopting energy efficiency measures and exploring alternative energy sources to mitigate rising fuel costs.

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Disruptions in energy and food supply and trade, affect energy and food price inflation in the real economy. On the financial side, the war also changes market expectations, leading to higher prices for energy and food commodities in future markets, which then amplify energy and food price inflation. Both the real and financial shocks affect energy and food security for households and firms and also propagate into companies' stock prices and investors' portfolios. The graphical representation of cascading impacts builds on the conceptual framework of Carter et al.2, where red triangles indicate the initial impacts, red arrows the impact propagation channels, blue squares the affected system components, green triangles recipient systems of the impacts, and green arrows policy responses.

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Cascading impacts of the Russia–Ukraine war.

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Cascading impacts of the Russia–Ukraine war.

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What Would a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal Mean for Energy?

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What Would a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal Mean for Energy?

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3. How is the war influencing trade routes and logistics in West Asia?

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3. How is the war influencing trade routes and logistics in West Asia?

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The influencing trade routes and logistics in West Asia:

- Shift in Trade Corridors: Traditional routes through Eastern Europe have been disrupted, pushing West Asian countries to explore alternatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

- Rising Logistical Costs: Fuel price increases and global supply chain disruptions have led to higher transportation and logistics expenses.

- Strategic Realignments: West Asia is experiencing changing trade alliances and partnerships as nations adapt to new geopolitical and economic realities.

- Increased Focus on Resilience: Businesses are seeking more stable and diversified trade routes to reduce dependence on volatile regions.

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2. Identify two industries in North Africa impacted by the war and propose business strategies to address these effects.

1. Tourism industry:

War often creates fear and instability, making tourists hesitant to visit affected countries. North Africa, with its rich history, beautiful scenery and cultural treasures, relies heavily on tourism. When conflict erupts, many hotels close, local tour guides lose their jobs and entire communities that depend on visitors suffer the consequences.

To recover tourism, it is necessary to promote safe areas through social networks and international campaigns. It is also useful to offer virtual experiences, improve security and include travel insurance to attract visitors.

Agricultural industry:

War severely affects food production by damaging fields, cutting off supply routes and forcing farmers to flee. In North Africa, where many families make their living from agriculture, this can lead to hunger and poverty.

A good strategy to address this problem is to focus on modern agricultural techniques that require less water and are more resistant to conflict. In addition, it is key that governments, local businesses and NGOs collaborate to train farmers, provide them with basic inputs such as seeds and tools, and rebuild infrastructure such as irrigation systems. Strengthening small producers and facilitating their access to local markets will also help revive the economy and ensure food security.

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Two of the most vulnerable industries in East Asia due to the ongoing global disruptions (including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and COVID-19 aftermath) are:

Agriculture and Food Processing and, semiconductor and Electronics Industry:

Agriculture and food processing in East Asia are heavily dependent on imported fertilizers and grains, particularly from Russia and Ukraine. This makes them vulnerable to conflict, unstable prices, and climate change. To improve this situation, companies are investing in agricultural technology, seeking new suppliers, and building food reserves.

The semiconductor and electronics industry is also fragile due to its heavy dependence on foreign inputs and components. It also suffers from geopolitical tensions and fluctuating prices. To adapt, companies are producing more locally, diversifying their suppliers, and strengthening their logistics systems.

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2. Which two industries in South Asia are most affected, and what strategies can businesses adopt to mitigate these impacts?

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2. Which two industries in South Asia are most affected, and what strategies can businesses adopt to mitigate these impacts?

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Most affected industries:

1. Agricultural sector:

Direct impacts: Higher fertilizer costs, wheat shortages, increased production costs

Mitigation strategies:

Diversification of import sources beyond Russia/Ukraine

Investment in local production and storage infrastructure

Adoption of climate-smart agriculture to reduce input dependency

Public-private partnerships for food security initiatives

2. Energy-dependent manufacturing:

Direct impacts: Production disruptions, higher operational costs, supply uncertainty

Mitigation strategies:

Energy efficiency improvements and conservation measures

Gradual transition to renewable energy sources

Hedging against price volatility through long-term contracts

Redesigning supply chains to prioritize local sourcing

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Is Southeast Asia the next Manufacturing Powerhouse after China?

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The Impacts of India’s Rice Export Ban and the Ukraine-Russia Conflict on Global Food Trade | Earth.Org

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India’s decision to ban rice exports due to erratic monsoons and the ripple effects of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on sunflower oil and wheat markets has laid bare the intricate vulnerabilities of the global food trade system.

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How the Russia-Ukraine war is affecting global food supplies

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How can China improve its food security?

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China is strategically fortifying its food security through a multi-pronged approach encompassing the strict protection and enhanced productivity of domestic arable land via technological investments and optimized crop structures, alongside the maintenance of substantial national food reserves for stability. Simultaneously, it actively diversifies its import sources through new trade relationships and agreements to mitigate reliance on single markets, while also prioritizing sustainable land-use policies and engaging in international trade to ensure long-term food supply resilience in a dynamic global context.

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Impact of Russia Ukrain War on Global Markets

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Impact of Russia Ukrain War on Global Markets

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Impact of Russia Ukrain War on Global Markets

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How has the war affected energy prices and availability in Southeast Asia?

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How has the war affected energy prices and availability in Southeast Asia?

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How are Southeast Asian countries adjusting their energy policies?

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How are Southeast Asian countries adjusting their energy policies?

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Energy impact on Southeast Asian industries

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Energy impact on Southeast Asian industries

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2. Identify two significantly impacted sectors and propose business strategies to address these challenges:

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2. Identify two significantly impacted sectors and propose business strategies to address these challenges:

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Agriculture sector

Impact:

The agriculture sector in Central Asia has been affected by the inability to import fertilizers, seeds, and machinery, mainly from Russia and Ukraine. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, for example, have struggled to obtain high-quality agricultural inputs. Rising transportation costs have also made imported goods more expensive. Farmers are experiencing delays in planting and harvesting due to these shortages.

Strategies:

Diversify input sources because governments and businesses should find new trade partners in South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe for agricultural inputs.

Local production and innovation, because investing in domestic fertilizer and machinery production would reduce dependence. This could be encouraged with subsidies, joint ventures, and partnerships with foreign agri-tech investors.

b. Energy sector

Impact:

Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have relied on Russian infrastructure for energy exports and imports. The war has raised concerns about dependence on Russian pipelines, markets, and transit routes. Global energy price fluctuations have also disrupted energy planning and investment.

Strategies:

Expand renewable energy this because the governments should invest in solar, wind, and hydroelectric energy. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have potential in these areas and could attract foreign investment with the right policies.

Strengthen regional energy cooperation, a Central Asian energy grid or cooperative agreements between neighboring countries would reduce reliance on external powers and improve energy security.

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3. How is the geopolitical landscape in Central Asia shifting in response to the war?

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3. How is the geopolitical landscape in Central Asia shifting in response to the war?

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The geopolitical landscape in central Asia is changing significantly in response to the war. On one hand, there is a reconfiguration of alliances, as, although Russia has intensified its diplomatic efforts in the region, Central Asian countries have shown resistance, as evidenced by their abstentions or votes against UN resolutions related to the war.

On the other hand, the attention of other powers, such as China, the United States, and the European Union, has increased toward Central Asia, leading to initiatives like C5+1 aimed at strengthening cooperation in the region.

Additionally of this, there is a consolidation of authoritarian regimes in many countries of the region. Governments are taking advantage of the current situation to strengthen their internal power, often with little international opposition due to the strategic interests that global powers have in the region.

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The video analyzes how.

1. Impact on food security and commodity prices

Import dependence: Many African countries heavily rely on wheat and sunflower oil imports from Ukraine and Russia.

Supply chain disruptions: The conflict has disrupted these exports, causing shortages of essential food items in several African countries.

Price increases: The shortages have led to significant increases in food prices, particularly affecting the most vulnerable populations.

2. Affected industries and business strategies

Agricultural industry: The shortage of fertilizers—many imported from Russia—has negatively impacted agricultural production.

Energy sector: Rising oil and gas prices have increased operating costs for businesses and affected transportation and production.

Proposed strategies:

Diversification of sources: Seek new suppliers of fertilizers and energy to reduce dependence on Russia and Ukraine.

Investment in local production: Promote local production of fertilizers and the development of renewable energy sources to increase self-sufficiency.

3. Long-term economic implications

Inflation: Rising food and energy prices have contributed to widespread inflation in many African countries.

Poverty and hunger: Inflation and food shortages have led to increased levels of poverty and hunger.

Economic stability: If the conflict continues, there is a risk of prolonged economic slowdown and increased instability in the region.

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Las economías de América Latina y el Caribe enfrentan una coyuntura compleja en el 2022 debido al conflicto bélico entre Rusia y Ucrania, que abrió una nueva fuente de incertidumbre para la economía mundial y afecta negativamente el crecimiento global, estimado en un 3,3%, un punto porcentual menos de lo que se proyectaba antes del inicio de las hostilidades. En el ámbito regional, el menor crecimiento esperado se verá acompañado por una mayor inflación y una lenta recuperación del empleo.

Según nuevas estimaciones de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe ( CEPAL), en el actual contexto, donde el conflicto de Ucrania ha agudizado los problemas de inflación, aumentado la volatilidad y costos financieros, se prevé un crecimiento promedio de 1,8% para la región. Las economías de América del Sur crecerán 1,5%, las de América Central y México un 2,3%, mientras que las del Caribe crecerían un 4,7% (excluyendo Guyana).

Las nuevas cifras fueron entregadas por el secretario ejecutivo interino del organismo, Mario Cimoli, a los embajadores del Grupo de Países de América Latina y el Caribe, durante la reunión que sostuvieron este miércoles en la sede de la ONU, en Nueva York.

El comercio afectado por el conflicto

De acuerdo con la CEPAL, también se prevé que la dinámica del comercio mundial se vea negativamente afectada por el conflicto bélico, lo que provocaría una disminución de la demanda externa de América Latina y el Caribe.

Los principales socios comerciales de la región -Estados Unidos, China y la Unión Europea- verán tasas de crecimiento menores a las esperadas con anterioridad al conflicto.

En el caso de Estados Unidos, el crecimiento sería de un 2,8% (1,2 puntos porcentuales por debajo de lo proyectado antes del conflicto). Para China, se proyecta un crecimiento de 5% (0,7 puntos porcentuales menos antes de las hostilidades) y para la Unión Europea se espera un crecimiento del 2,8% (1,4 puntos porcentuales menos de lo esperado antes del conflicto).

La guerra en Ucrania también provocó un aumento de precios de los productos básicos, principalmente de los hidrocarburos, algunos metales, alimentos, y fertilizantes. Este incremento de precios se suma a las alzas de costos observadas debido a disrupciones en las cadenas de suministros y a la exacerbación de las interrupciones del transporte marítimo.

Estas subidas han redundado en un impulso de la inflación a nivel mundial, que en algunos países ha alcanzado máximos históricos en 2022. Ante la persistencia y aumento de la inflación se esperan mayores alzas en las tasas de interés de los países desarrollados.

La comisión regional de las Naciones Unidas agrega que el ajuste monetario de los países del Norte ha acentuado el endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras globales que se venía observando en los últimos meses, provocando una mayor volatilidad en los mercados financieros, lo que, junto al aumento a la aversión global al riesgo como resultado del conflicto en Ucrania, ha perjudicado los flujos de capital hacia los mercados emergentes.

Estas tendencias podrían acentuarse en los próximos meses, en especial si persisten las presiones inflacionarias en las economías desarrolladas, y los bancos centrales de estas economías profundizan políticas monetarias contractivas, incluyendo incrementos de las tasas de política monetaria y la reversión de los estímulos monetarios (compra de activos).

Mayor inflación para América Latina y el Caribe

Al igual que en el resto del mundo, la dinámica inflacionaria en América Latina y el Caribe se ha acelerado, advierte la CEPAL.

A marzo de 2022, se estima que la inflación regional fue de 7,5%, y muchos bancos centrales de la región anticipan que la inflación se mantendrá elevada en lo que resta de año, en virtud de la mayor incertidumbre en el contexto externo que se ha visto acentuada por la guerra de Ucrania, en especial los altos precios internacionales de la energía y de los alimentos y las disrupciones en las cadenas globales de suministro, así como elevados costos de transporte que persisten.

En respuesta al alza de la inflación, la política monetaria de los bancos centrales de la región se ha tornado más restrictiva y la mayoría de ellos han subido la tasa de interés de manera significativa, que en gran parte de los casos ha alcanzado niveles similares a los observados en 2017.

Se prevé que el retiro del impulso fiscal se acelere en 2022, en consonancia con la evolución de las condiciones macroeconómicas y el aumento de los costos de financiamiento.

El gasto público se contraería, reforzando la reducción observada en 2021, reduciendo el aporte de la política fiscal al crecimiento.

El mercado laboral también afectado

En tanto, si bien los mercados laborales dan señales de recuperación, esta ha sido lenta e incompleta.

Para 2022 y, en concordancia con la desaceleración que se espera en el ritmo de crecimiento de la región, se prevé que el ritmo de creación de empleo se reduzca.

La acción conjunta de una mayor participación laboral, y de un bajo ritmo de creación de empleos, impulsará un alza en la tasa de desocupación durante el presente año, alerta la CEPAL.

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América Latina y los efectos de la guerra en Ucrania: menor crecimiento, mayor inflación e inestabilidad laboral

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La guerra en Ucrania está teniendo graves repercusiones en la economía mundial y el crecimiento global baja un punto en las estimaciones previas al conflicto. En América Latina y el Caribe, se prevé, además del menor crecimiento económico, una mayor inflación provocada por la volatilidad de los mercados financieros y el pavor a la incertidumbre.

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Group 7: Latin America

Article: Latin America and the Effects of the War in Ukraine: Slower Growth, Higher Inflation, and Labor Instability

Questions:

1. What is the link between the war in Ukraine and food security in Latin America, according to the UN?

2. What economic impact does the UN foresee for Latin America due to the conflict in Eastern Europe?

3. What kind of solutions does the UN propose to mitigate these effects, and how could they be applied in the Latin American context?