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Secondary schools face 6,000 trainee teacher shortfall

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Analysis shows the government is thousands off its teacher target this year - with recruitment also getting worse

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Thousands more teachers leaving the profession again as pandemic effect wears off, with vacancies at highest since 2010

Thousands more teachers leaving the profession again as pandemic effect wears off, with vacancies at highest since 2010

Thousands more teachers are leaving the profession as the pandemic's effect wears off, new figures suggest, with vacancies at their highest level in more than a decade.

Official census data on the school workforce, collected last November and published today, also shows more newly qualified teachers leaving within a year.

It also shows heads and teachers went into the current cost-of-living squeeze - with inflation now at 9 per cent - off the back of just 0.8 per cent and 1.4 per cent annual rises in average pay, respectively.

Kevin Courtney, joint general secretary of teaching union NEU, said figures indicated "serious and deep-rooted teacher recruitment and retention problems remain".

1. Teacher departures up 12.4 per cent ...

The number of teachers leaving last year jumped by 12.4 per cent, with 4,000 more departures in 2020-21 than the previous year. Some 36,262 staff - 8.1 per cent of all teachers - left the state-funded sector.

However, this is still lower than the 9.4 per cent in 2018-19 before the pandemic, with Covid boosting both recruitment and retention.

Workforce expert Jack Worth noted more primary teachers were leaving than secondary for the first time ever. Asian, black, mixed and other ethnic minority background teachers were also more likely to leave than white peers.

To make matters worse, only 11 per cent of those leaving were retiring, whereas a third of those leaving in 2010-11 were retirees.

2. ... and uptick again in new teachers leaving

Among newly qualified teachers, the number who left within one year rose from 11.7 per cent in 2020, to 12.5 per cent last year.

Again, this is still below the pre-pandemic levels (it was 14.6 per cent in 2019). Meanwhile, both the two-year and five-year retention rates improved year-on-year.

But Worth notes: "These leaving decisions were taken just after the spring 2021 school closures and before the wider labour market really took off and recovered strongly when restrictions were lifted So no big surprise that numbers aren't higher, but they may be next year."

The DfE itself has also predicted a Covid-delayed exodus.

3. Teacher vacancies highest since at least 2010

One signal that the exodus may have begun is in total teacher vacancies, which have jumped 42 per cent in a year to 1,600. It followed small declines over the previous two years.

It means vacancies are now at the highest level since recent records began in 2010-11.

Classroom teacher vacancies hit 1,368 last November, up 45.5 per cent on 2020 and almost four times higher than the 355 vacancies in 2010-11.

Vacancies for "all leadership" posts hit 196, also a record high.

4. Pay growth for teachers outstrips heads'

The average classroom teacher's salary of £38,982 was only 1.4 per cent higher last November than a year earlier. While heads' average pay was £74,095, it marked only a 0.8 per cent rise.

"The government plans more real terms cuts to teacher pay, adding to the cuts of around a fifth since 2010," said NEU joint general secretary Kevin Courtney.

Men continue to generally out-earn women, with secondary heads earning £3,698 more. Significant exceptions are primary classroom teachers, where women earn £655 more on average, and non-head leaders at primaries, special schools and pupil referral units.

But the DfE says average pay levels should not be used to indicate pay awards, partly as factors like better-paid older staff retiring, and being replaced by less well-paid new teachers, could drag down average pay.

5. Secondary class sizes swell by two pupils

The average secondary school teacher taught 16.7 pupils, similar to last year but up from 14.8 in 2010-11. Officials noted rising secondary pupil numbers since 2016.

Primary pupil numbers per teacher remain similar at 20.4 in 2010-11 and 20.6 in 2021-22, though Courtney noted this came in spite of primary pupil numbers falling.

"This adds to the already critical problems caused by excessive workload," he said.

6. Ethnic diversity increases, slowly

The ethnic diversity of the teaching workforce continued to increase last year, with 14.9 per cent of staff identifying as ethnic minorities, up from 11.2 per cent in 2010-11.

But diversity remains significantly below the national average, with 21.5 per cent of working-age people in England identifying as ethnic minorities.

"White British" teachers remain more likely to lead, making up 15.3 per cent of leaders compared to 8.1 per cent of "Asian or Asian British" teachers.

A recent National Foundation for Educational Research study found ethnic minority candidates are also less likely to be accepted onto teacher training despite "clear and obvious interest" in the profession.

7. Fewer staff sick, but spells off longer

In 2020-21, 45 per cent of teachers took sickness absence, not including isolation or shielding, down significantly on the 54 per cent absence rate in 2018-19. Figures were not collated in 2019-20.

But the average number of days off jumped from just over 4 per cent between 2014 and 2019, to 8.6 days in the last academic year.

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Jump in teachers leaving, plus 6 more school workforce findings

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Thousands more teachers leaving the profession again as pandemic effect wears off, with vacancies at highest since 2010 Thousands more teachers leaving the profession again as pandemic effect wears off, with vacancies at highest since 2010 Thousands more teachers are leaving the profession as the pandemic's effect wears off, new figures suggest, with vacancies at their highest level in more than a decade.

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Ofsted outstanding schools drop grades and education recovery research

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Ofsted outstanding schools drop grades and education recovery research

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The watchdog found learning loss during Covid lockdowns made it more difficult to identify pupils with SEND

The watchdog found learning loss during Covid lockdowns made it more difficult to identify pupils with SEND

Amy Walker
20 Jul 2022, 0:01

School closures and missed learning opportunities during the pandemic are making it more difficult for schools to identify pupils with SEND, Ofsted research has revealed.

The finding is part of the watchdog's education recovery report for the summer term, based on evidence collected during routine inspections of 19 primary schools, 21 secondary schools and 23 special schools in England between April and May this year.

Focus group discussions were also held with Ofsted inspectors. However, Ofsted caveated that the data "cannot be assumed to be representative of the whole sector". The briefing forms the final instalment of Ofsted's research into schools recovery from the pandemic.

Ofsted chief inspector Amanda Spielman said it was clear "education providers are responding to the ongoing challenges" of the pandemic "with creativity and resilience".

But she added that it had "created some distinct problems, which are taking time to shift".

Here are seven interesting findings relating to schools.

1. Learning loss makes it harder for schools to identify SEND pupils

Disruption to teaching caused by school closures during lockdowns is likely to have hindered SEND identification for some pupils, and some leaders are "seeking to refer" more pupils for assessments than they would have before the pandemic.

But this term, some school leaders "were still unpicking whether concerns were because pupils had SEND or whether their additional needs were a result of pandemic disruption", including gaps in knowledge and delays in speech and language due to less social interaction.

Ofsted also noted that schools that did not accurately identify missed or "poorly secured" learning were "at risk" of incorrectly identifying whether a pupils' additional needs were due to SEND or because they were behind as a result of the pandemic.

Leaders also said that persistent absences, which were more likely to affect pupils with SEND, were often related to Covid, including because of anxiety about the virus.

In special schools, parental anxiety about Covid was common when pupils had medical needs that could be exacerbated by contracting it.

2. Year 8 pupils still catching up on key stage 2 content

During the summer term, many leaders raised concerns about pupils in key stage 3, particularly those in year 7 and year 8 whose transition from primary to secondary school was disrupted by the pandemic.

Subject leaders found "more variation in pupils' knowledge and skills", while some were "still catching up on key stage 2 curriculum content" including in reading and maths.

Some pupils in those year groups also "often displayed less mature behaviour than pupils of this age might previously have done".

Meanwhile, many pupils in year 11 missed out on work experience this summer, with some leaders explaining it had been difficult to set up "because employers were often reluctant to facilitate placements".

Where schools could not secure external placements for pupils, alternative opportunities they provided included virtual interviews or work experience within the school or trust.

3. Exam stress among staff being 'transmitted' to pupils

With the return of external tests and exams, and with it league tables for secondary schools this year, inspectors "recognised exam stress and anxiety" among some staff.

Leaders in schools "more heavily affected by the pandemic" were worried that their schools' results "would be affected more than those of other schools".

In some instances, the anxiety felt by leaders and staff about exams "was transmitted to pupils".

4. Schools use smaller rooms for exams due to increased anxiety

Year 11 and year 13 pupils taking exams this year last experienced a formal assessment five or more years ago, when they took key stage 2 tests. Some school leaders said exam anxiety "was higher" among pupils than before the pandemic.

Some pupils also said "they did not feel ready to sit exams" because they "did not feel confident in their knowledge and/or exam technique".

This meant that in some schools, more pupils "needed smaller rooms for exams", requiring extra planning by school leaders and additional staff to invigilate.

5. Pupils taking time off for rescheduled family holidays

Most school leaders said pupils' attendance had improved following a peak in Covid cases in the spring term, with some leaders saying attendance was back to pre-pandemic levels.

But during the summer term, some leaders said pupils were absent because of rescheduled families that had been postponed during the pandemic. This was also the case during the autumn term.

6. More staff off sick with long Covid

Covid-related staff absences continued but had fallen since the spring term. Such absences were usually due to staff testing positive for Covid.

However, during the summer term, more leaders told Ofsted that they had staff members off sick with long-Covid symptoms.

7. Managing tech safeguarding concerns takes more time

School staff "recognised" that the pandemic had "increased workloads and created additional pressures for staff".

But as well as catching up with lost learning opportunities and preparing pupils for exams, staff were spending more time "managing safeguarding concerns around pupils' use of digital technology".

Leaders believed this was because pupils used technology more during the pandemic.

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7 things we learned from Ofsted about education recovery

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The watchdog found learning loss during Covid lockdowns made it more difficult to identify pupils with SEND The watchdog found learning loss during Covid lockdowns made it more difficult to identify pupils with SEND Amy Walker 20 Jul 2022, 0:01 School closures and missed learning opportunities during the pandemic are making it more difficult for schools to identify pupils with SEND, Ofsted research has revealed.

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What did we learn from data on the first summer exams since 2019?

What did we learn from data on the first summer exams since 2019?

Results from the first formal A-level exams held since 2019 have been published.

Here's what we know...

1. Overall performance in England

The proportion of A* and A grades has dropped this year compared to 2021 (when teacher-assessed grades were used) from 44.3 per cent to 35.9 per cent. However, this is still way above the 25.2 per cent getting top grades in 2019.

For grade C and above, 82.1 per cent achieved this this year compared to 88.2 per cent in 2021 and 75.5 per cent in 2019.

However, the number of A-level students who achieved 3 A* grades has remained high at 8,570 but dropped a third from 2021 at 12,865. It's still higher than 2020 - 7,775 - and much higher than 2019 - 2,785.

2. A-level grade distribution: 2019 to 2022

3. North-south divide widens

London has seen the sharpest rise in top grades since 2019 - rising 12.1 percentage points from 26.9 to 39 per cent. However, the north east has only seen a 7.8 percentage point increase from 23.0 to 30.8.

It is bound to raise questions about whether this was down to the pandemic, which hit some areas harder than others.

4. Private schools see biggest drop, but still come out on top

Ofqual data shows private school pupils saw the biggest drop in top grades following the reintroduction of summer exams.

The proportion of candidates awarded an A* in all subjects fell by 11 percentage points, while the proportion getting a grade A or above fell by 12.4 percentage points.

Despite this, the proportion of top grades awarded was once again highest in private schools. This year, 58 per cent of grades issued to private school pupils were As or above, down from 70.4 per cent last year but up from 44.7 per cent in 2019.

In comparison, the proportion of top grades was 50.4 per cent in grammar schools, 45 per cent in free schools, 35 per cent in academies, 31.9 per cent in sixth form colleges and 30.7 per cent in comprehensive schools.

The lowest proportions of top grades were issued in secondary modern schools, which are non-selective schools in selective areas, at 27.8 per cent, tertiary colleges (27.5 per cent) and FE establishments (16.5 per cent).

5. Which subjects are gaining/losing popularity?

Across the UK, there has been no change to the top five most popular subjects. But some subjects have increased in popularity while others have fallen.

Design and technology saw the biggest increase in entries, up by 14.3 per cent this year, closely followed by computing (13.5 per cent), PE (11.4 per cent) and political studies (11 per cent).

English literature saw the biggest decrease, with entries falling by 9.4 per cent. It dropped out of the 10 most popular subjects for the first time, replaced by geography.

English language and literature entries dropped by 5.8 per cent and French fell by 5.4 per cent. Entries to further maths also dropped by 3.8 per cent.

6. Which subjects have the biggest gender gap in entries?

JCQ has published data on the differences between boys' and girls' A-level subject choices, which as ever makes for interesting reading.

Computing continues to have far more entries from boys, who make up more than eight in 10 entrants, while physics, further maths, ICT and design and technology are also much more popular among boys than girls.

At the other end of the scale, performing and expressive arts, English literature, sociology and art and design subjects had much higher entries from girls than boys.

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A-level results 2022: 6 key trends in England's data

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What did we learn from data on the first summer exams since 2019? What did we learn from data on the first summer exams since 2019? Results from the first formal A-level exams held since 2019 have been published. Here's what we know...

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What did we learn from data on the first summer exams since 2019?

GCSE results for the first summer exams since the pandemic began are out this morning - here's your usual handy Schools Week round up of the key trends.

What did we learn from data on the first summer exams since 2019?

All the findings below are based on figures for 16-year-olds in England only, unless stated otherwise.

1. Grade 5+ pass rate is 60.3%

Historically we have always highlighted the grade 5 and above pass rate - considered a "strong" pass - because it's how schools are judged in league tables, despite grade 4 being a 'standard' pass.

The grade 5 pass rate has dropped from 62.8 per cent in 2021 - when teacher assessed grades were awarded - to 60.3 per cent.

However this is still higher than 2019 - the last year of formal summer exams - when this sat at 53.5 per cent.

The number of grades that are 4 and above has fallen from 79.1 per cent in 2021 to 75.3 per cent this year. But again this is still above the 69.9 per cent seen in 2019.

2. Top grades fall, but still way up from 2019

The proportion of top grades (7 to 9, which is equivalent to A/A*) has fallen by 3 percentage points - from 30 per cent this year to 27 per cent in 2021.

Looking at the actual numbers, this is a 9 per cent fall from last year. But it is up from 21.8 per cent in 2019.

Meanwhile, grade 9s dropped from 7.7 per cent last year to 6.8 per cent - a 0.9 percentage point fall. But again much higher than the 4.7 per cent awarded in 2019.

This works out as an 11 per cent drop in grade 9s awarded since last year.

3. English see bigger drop in top grades than maths

The number of grade 7s and above in maths has fallen from 25.9 per cent in 2021, to 24 per cent this year. In 2019, this was 20.4 per cent

The maths grade 5-pass rate was 56.6 per cent, down from 59.1 per cent in 2021. In 2019, this was 50.1 per cent.

Top grades in English fell from 26.3 per cent to 23.5 per cent. But up from 17.4 per cent in 2019.

English grade 5-pass rate sat at 61.1 per cent. This is lower than 2021 63.6 per cent but much higher than 53.4 per cent in 2019.

4. Nearly 3x more straight 9s since the last exams

This year, 2,193 students achieved all grade 9s. This is a 40 per cent drop from last year - when a staggering 3,606 students got the full flush.

In 2020, 2,645 achieved straight 9s. But in 2019, this was just 837 - marking a 162 per cent rise compared to this year.

Over two-thirds of these students were girls - 67 per cent - compared to 33 per cent of boys. Thirteen students achieved 9s in 12 or more GCSEs.

5. North-south attainment gap widens

The attainment gap between the north east and London has widened slightly for grade 7 and above. The gap was 9.3 percentage points in 2019, 10 in 2021 and this year it has crept up to 10.2 percentage points difference.

It's bound to trigger scrutiny about whether this was down to the pandemic, which hit some areas harder than others.

The proportion of top grades this year in London was 32.6 per cent - whereas there was just 22.4 per cent in the north east.

This compares to 34.5 per cent in the capital last year and 24.5 per cent in the north east in 2021.

The gaps were also stark in 2019, when the north east top grades was 16.4 per cent compared to 25.7 per cent in London.

6. No change in the most popular subjects

Double award science, maths, English, English Literature and History still have the highest entries across the UK for all ages.

Spanish is no longer the subject with the highest percentage growth: entries decreased by 1.7 per cent from 114,795 to 112,845 following a continuous period of growth since 2018.

French also declined by 1.9 per cent and German dropped by 1.7 per cent.

Source: FFT Datalab

The gap in entry size between geography and history has narrowed in 2022. Geography increased by 2.7 per cent while history saw a slight decline 0.9 per cent.

7. Girls do better than boys at the top

Overall outcomes at all key GCSE grades are higher for girls than boys - which has been the case for several years across the UK at all ages.

This year, top grades for girls were 30 per cent compared to 22.6 per cent for boys. At grade 4, this was 76.7 per cent for girls compared to 69.8 for boys.

This means the gap between boy and girl outcomes at grade 7 have narrowed by 1.6 percentage points since last year. But has widened at grade 1.

8. Much bigger drop in top grades at private schools

Private schools have seen the percentage of top grades drop from 61.2 per cent to 53 per cent - an 8.2 percentage point gap since 2021.

This compares to a 2.4 percentage point drop for academies in the last year.

However a recent study urged caution on drawing the conclusion that this shows private schools "fiddled" their grades more than others during Covid year s.

But grades at grammar schools - which are similarly likely to have more grade 7 and above pupils - held up much better, with just a slight fall.

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GCSE results 2022: 8 key trends in England's data

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What did we learn from data on the first summer exams since 2019? GCSE results for the first summer exams since the pandemic began are out this morning - here's your usual handy Schools Week round up of the key trends. What did we learn from data on the first summer exams since 2019?

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KS2 SATs - decrease in performance across all disciplines except reading

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KS2 SATs - decrease in performance across all disciplines except reading

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Results drop to lowest levels since 2016 after Covid disruption, but silver lining as reading improves

Results drop to lowest levels since 2016 after Covid disruption, but silver lining as reading improves

Fifty-nine per cent of pupils achieved the government's "expected standard" in reading, writing and maths in this year's key stage 2 SATs, down from 65 per cent in 2019 and the lowest since 2016.

Interim results published by the government this morning show that the proportion of pupils reaching a scaled score of 100 or more fell in every discipline except reading, where it rose by 1 percentage point from 73 to 74 per cent.

In maths, the proportion meeting the expected standard fell from 79 per cent in 2019 to 71 per cent this year. And the proportion reaching the standard in writing fell from 78 per cent to 69 per cent.

In grammar, punctuation and spelling, the proportion meeting the expected standard fell from 78 per cent to 72 per cent. Meanwhile 79 per cent met the threshold in science, down from 83 per cent in 2019.

Achievement in the three main disciplines this year was the lowest level seen since 2016, when 53 per cent met the expected standard. However, the government said attainment was "not directly comparable" with 2016 and 2017 because of a change to writing tests.

It follows over two years of disruption to education, and represents the results of the first formal tests sat by primary pupils in three years.

It leaves the government even further away from its recent white paper and levelling up target for 90 per cent of children by 2030 leaving primary school with the expected standard in reading, writing and maths.

SATs results 'disappointing but expected', says Walker

Schools minister Robin Walker said the drop in overall achievement in reading, writing and maths was "disappointing", but "expected due to the impact of the pandemic".

Walker

He said the rise in reading attainment, coming "despite the disruption of Covid", was a "tribute to the hard work and dedication of our teachers, pupils and parents".

"Attainment in maths and in writing, however, are disappointing, but not unexpected."

Walker said the government would be working to "understand the detail beneath these figures", and more statistics in September would include breakdowns by region, local authority area and pupil characteristics.

He also defended the move to hold SATs this year without adaptations, "so that we can have a consistent measure of attainment before and after the pandemic".

No school-level key stage 2 data will be published in school league tables, but it will be shared with schools trusts and councils to "inform school improvement and support school leaders".

"We will ensure clear messages are placed alongside any data shared to advise caution in its interpretation."

Caution urged over drawing conclusions

NAHT leaders' union general secretary Paul Whiteman urged caution over the "conclusions we draw" from the results.

"The disruption caused by Covid impacted children in many different ways, with some families and school communities hit far harder than others. This means that attempts to compare SATs results between schools is a pointless endeavour."

But he said the national data showed the government needed "to do more to support schools with childhood and educational recovery of our nation's young people".

Schools Week reported that heads faced long delays accessing their schools' results this morning, after a portal run by Capita on behalf of the government crashed.

The government also published the marks pupils needed for the 2022 key stage 2 tests to achieve its "expected" scores. You can read about them here.

Analysis shows attainment drop at KS1 too

Analysis by FFT Education Datalab of key stage 1 results from 620 schools that provided data for both 2019 and 2022 found similar drops in attainment in certain disciplines.

The proportion reaching the expected standard in writing fell from 70 per cent to 59 per cent, with smaller decreases in reading and maths. The analysis also suggests that attainment fell among summer-born girls more so than other groups.

Pupils currently at the end of key stage 1 started school in September 2019, meaning all three of their first years of school have been disrupted by Covid.

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Results drop to lowest levels since 2016 after Covid disruption, but silver lining as reading improves Results drop to lowest levels since 2016 after Covid disruption, but silver lining as reading improves Fifty-nine per cent of pupils achieved the government's "expected standard" in reading, writing and maths in this year's key stage 2 SATs, down from 65 per cent in 2019 and the lowest since 2016.

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Digging further into the Key Stage 2 attainment gap - FFT Education Datalab

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Official figures show a worrying increase in the disadvantage gap index since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. We look into the changes in more detail.

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research director, National Foundation for Educational Research

18 Aug 2022, 16:18

Almost a third of T Level students did not receive their university offer which merits closer investigation, writes Lisa Morrison Coulthard

We are delighted to see the results for the first three T Levels in construction, digital and education and childcare. They offer the first insights into the impact of the government's flagship technical alternative to A-levels.

With an overall pass rate of 92.2 per cent (compared to 98.4 per cent for A-levels), we congratulate this first cohort - not just for taking the new qualification but for overcoming the challenging impacts of Covid-19.

However, in addition to the actual results achieved, we feel it is important to reflect on the view of the students completing these qualifications.

The findings of the first Technical Education Learner Survey, commissioned by Department for Education and undertaken by NatCen and NFER, provide unique perspectives and rich data from over 700 students.

Students' views were positive with high levels of satisfaction reported both overall and with different course elements, including the industry placement, despite the impact of Covid-19 on programme delivery and securing placements.

The results published by DfE show that, despite the difficulties arising from the pandemic, 94 per cent of learners successfully completed their industry placement.

Our research also showed that most students found the workload to be manageable and their course suitably challenging.

The results published by DfE for both the core component and occupational specialist elements of the course are promising - with 99.5 per cent achieving an E or above (for the core component) and 97.5 per cent a pass or above for the specialist course elements.

More than 34 per cent of T Level students receiving results today were awarded a Distinction or Distinction* overall.

It will be important to evaluate whether students' positive experience of T Levels carries through to successful progression into higher education, apprenticeships and employment.

It will also be crucial to see how valuable they are perceived to be by industry and HE.

The news from UCAS today is that 71 per cent of T Level university applicants have received their places.

This suggests that 29 per cent of T Level students did not. The reasons for this require some investigating.

We also note that around a fifth of learners did not complete their T Level course and this also merits further scrutiny.

We note that a fifth of learners did not complete their T Level course and this merits further scrutiny

In considering the experience and grades achieved by this cohort, it is important to be mindful of the unique characteristics of this first intake and remember that the first two years of T Levels have been far from "normal".

Covid-19 aside, the cohort size was quite modest (around 1,300 students in 2020 compared to 5450 in 2021), in turn, class sizes were much smaller than would be anticipated for future intakes.

All providers were rated good or outstanding by Ofsted and, due to the smaller intake, there was less competition for industry placements than will be the case in the future as T Levels are rolled out.

So, it would be reasonable to consider the experiences of the 2020 cohort to not be representative of those of subsequent intakes.

It is, therefore, still early days for T Levels and how well they are received and valued both by industry and higher education needs to be carefully monitored.

The longitudinal Technical Education Learner Survey which NFER is working on with NatCen will continue to provide decision-makers with survey-based evidence capturing T Level students' experiences, journeys and outcomes until 2024.

Nevertheless, this year's results are testament to the hard work and dedication of both students and providers during a very difficult and unique set of circumstances.

We wish these students every success in their next steps, whether in higher education, an apprenticeship or employment.

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T Level results are welcome but need further scrutiny

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research director, National Foundation for Educational Research 18 Aug 2022, 16:18 Almost a third of T Level students did not receive their university offer which merits closer investigation, writes Lisa Morrison Coulthard We are delighted to see the results for the first three T Levels in construction, digital and education and childcare.

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Skyrocketing prices force school leaders into 'unpalatable' choices to keep classrooms open this winter

Skyrocketing prices force school leaders into 'unpalatable' choices to keep classrooms open this winter

School leaders face "apocalyptic" energy price hikes of up to 587 per cent, warning of cuts to jobs, books and building work to fill budget black holes.

Others say heating will be turned down and class sizes raised without adequate government aid, as schools embark on energy-saving drives and accelerate net-zero investments.

Schools Week analysis suggests energy will cost trusts hundreds of millions more this autumn and winter than two years ago, with some now unable to find deals at all.

Emma Knights, chief executive of the National Governance Association, said new prime minister Liz Truss and the next education secretary must hand schools a lifeline with "urgency".

Bills rise sixfold

Simon Beamish

A recent acceleration in already fast-rising prices leaves many schools in an "apocalyptic situation", according to Leigh Academies Trust chief executive Simon Beamish.

Energy consultants estimate around two-thirds of schools renew each year. More than 350 renewed through one broker, Zenergi, in August alone.

In January, its clients' average bills doubled on new deals. But by August - after Russia's Ukraine invasion - they had soared 274 per cent for electricity and 499 per cent for gas.

Leigh Academies Trust expects an £8.7 million rise across 31 schools - up 514 per cent, and that could escalate any time. It is on a variable tariff, with many suppliers ditching fixed deals altogether.

"How do you budget when you don't know month-to-month costs?" asked Beamish.

Woodbridge High School in London was quoted an eye-watering 587 per cent rise for gas.

John Haw, managing director of Fidelity Energy, said clients have "gone white" when shown projected costs, with record demand for brokers' help.

Schools Week analysis suggests trusts' combined energy bills for autumn and winter likely more than trebled on 2020-21 levels - up more than £400 million across 10,000 academies.

With around 12,000 schools still maintained, the whole sector's extra costs will be far higher.

Deficits and austerity 2.0

Many schools now predict deficits, according to heads' union NAHT.

Energy bills, unfunded pay deals and wider inflation - all higher than expected months ago - are forcing leaders to tear up budgets. Several call plugging shortfalls "impossible".

At The Elliot Foundation, energy will cost £1.4 million and wages £1 million more than expected, trebling its deficit to £3.4 million.

Stuart Gardner, CEO of The Thinking Schools Academy Trust, said quadrupling electricity bills and other increases leave a £3.2 million black hole - £1 in every £25 spent.

Coventry cabinet member Richard Brown has similarly warned of "real challenge" balancing its books amid rising costs, with education £700,000 more than planned.

Leaders have gone white when shown projected costs

Without urgent grants or price caps, leaders warn austerity is back.

"Spiralling energy costs will inevitably lead to resource and staffing cuts, unless schools are given additional support," said Dr Karen Roberts, CEO of The Kemnal Academies Trust.

Karen Roberts

Aylsham Learning Federation executive head Duncan Spalding has said it could only save enough through "large-scale redundancies, a diminished curriculum [and] stopping vital maintenance work" - which would "eviscerate our provision".

Lee Mason-Ellis, CEO of The Pioneer Academy trust, said that before long its schools "won't be financially viable without significantly reducing staffing, visits and resources".

The NAHT says teaching assistants' hours could face cuts nationwide.

On Monday, parents across the Saffron Academy Trust received a letter warning of not only job cuts but also bigger classes and asking parents to fund resources.

Meanwhile Caroline Barlow, head of Heathfield Community College in East Sussex, said trips, clubs, music classes and reading books could prove "collateral damage of universal belt-tightening".

Some schools are shelving capital projects. David Collins, head of the Knole Academy in Kent, said new playground and astroturf facilities were "off the table".

'Unpalatable': Turning down heating

Many leaders' priority is radically curbing consumption.

"If it's a choice between switching off lights and turning down heating or paying teachers, it's not a difficult one," said Hugh Greenway, The Elliot Foundation CEO.

LED lights at The Pioneer Academy trust's Burnt Oak Junior School.

"There's no reason lights need to be on at 5am or computers left on overnight."

His trust will share usage data with pupils and parents, building support for "changing behaviours".

Chris Felgate, director of consultancy Ginger Energy, reports "mass installations" of solar panels among school clients, as well as LED lights and efficient boilers.

Former government adviser Jonathan Simons recently called for £2.5 billion in solar panel grants for schools, highlighting an opportunity for "progress on net zero".

Soaring energy costs mean "payback periods" for the panels have dramatically reduced.

But while Mason-Ellis said accelerating The Pioneer Academy's long-standing green drive through measures like insulation could shave a fifth off consumption, it will "not significantly dent" extra costs.

Collins agreed, with Knole Academy's existing solar panels only contributing one-twentieth of its electricity.

Caroline Derbyshire

John Winter, CEO of the Weydon Multi Academy Trust, and Caroline Derbyshire, CEO of the Saffron Academy Trust, fear more "unpalatable" decisions.

"Limiting the use of heating during the winter" is an option for Derbyshire.

Winter has not ruled out "sticking kids in body warmers" to cut heating bills, or even reducing time in school. "Everything is on the table - we can't afford not to be able to pay teachers."

Felgate said clients were considering clamping down on teachers' fan heaters, and even closing pools, flood-lit sports pitches or under-used classroom blocks.

Sector not 'awash with cash'

Most trust leaders interviewed by Schools Week expect to use reserves, preventing immediate redundancies.

Savings during Covid lockdowns pushed academy surpluses to £3.96 billion last year. This is enough to pay off combined deficits of £22 million in the sector 178 times over. Maintained schools saw similar record improvements, with a net £2 billion surplus in 2020-21.

While schools may appear "awash with cash" to the Treasury, reserves are "not universal and will run out pretty quickly," said Stephen Morales, chief executive of the Institute of School Business Leadership.

The DfE has resisted funding pleas for months. A spokesperson said schools received £4 billion more this year, and wide-ranging value-for-money support.

But unfunded hikes in other costs, such as teacher pay, have wiped this out. The Institute for Fiscal Studies recently said the government will no longer meet its promise to restore school budgets to 2010 levels.

This crisis is a market failure. It's a government's job to intervene
Hugh Greenway, The Elliot Foundation CEO

Tracy Prickett, head at Howe Dell Primary School, said small and rural schools were especially "vulnerable".

Greenway noted DfE figures also mask lower per-pupil rises for some schools. "This crisis is a market failure. It's government's job to intervene, as it did with bank failures in 2008-2009."

For Gardner, the DfE risks driving a flawed "culture" longer-term of stockpiling cash, if trusts cannot rely on its help during crises.

Some trust chiefs also warn the DfE risks undermining its MAT drive, with trust or maintained school deficits making both unappealing partners.

Schools' ability to cut costs varies, too. Weydon MAT includes three special schools, where Winter said scope to cut staffing or temperatures is limited given pupils' needs. For instance, hydrotherapy pools are energy-intensive.

Not all special schools received recent supplementary grants every mainstream school received.

The buying dilemma

"We're praying government might do something. We don't want to get locked in to high prices too, so we're staying on variable rates," said Winter.

Stephen Morales

Details of Truss' energy intervention policies are beginning to emerge, but so far only focus on households and businesses - with nothing briefed on public sector relief.

Morales "can't see Truss prioritising education" when so many households and sectors need help. And Tim Golding, of Zenergi, expects costs won't fall for at least 12 months.

Brokers say past expectations that prices will fall have worsened many schools' fate now.

More than usual struck short-term deals or stayed on variable tariffs last autumn and winter, as Covid and a long previous winter had pushed up prices.

Felgate said such moves were understandable, but then Russia invaded Ukraine, leaving more schools exposed to far costlier renewals this year.

Lots of his clients have now struck expensive three-year deals simply because they can't afford one-year contracts. "They should be more strategic, but can't."

Morales said smaller trusts and primaries are often more "hand to mouth", whereas larger trusts and councils had more strategic capacity.

Some operate flexible forward buying models. Ormiston Academies Trust constantly monitors markets and buys in smaller chunks, with half its 2023 energy bought for cheaper than this autumn's.

The trust's contracts end this month. It predicts a £9.2 million annual rise, but it marks a relatively less severe 186 per cent increase. It has also generated solar energy worth £150,000 this year at current prices.

But Vic Goddard, head of Passmores Academy in Essex, called the timing of contract expiry a "lottery ticket" beyond schools' control.

"The enormity of the challenge is something I've never seen in my career," said Beamish. "It's looking slightly dystopian - I don't think that's over-doing it."

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'Apocalyptic': 500 per cent energy price hikes plunge schools into winter crisis

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Skyrocketing prices force school leaders into 'unpalatable' choices to keep classrooms open this winter Skyrocketing prices force school leaders into 'unpalatable' choices to keep classrooms open this winter School leaders face "apocalyptic" energy price hikes of up to 587 per cent, warning of cuts to jobs, books and building work to fill budget black holes.

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Educational news and research monthly bulletin

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SKE for all teachers teaching outside subject speciality will help reduce teacher retention. When will SLT teams in schools have this as a priority? Directive from Ofsted needed?

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SKE for all teachers teaching outside subject speciality will help reduce teacher retention. When will SLT teams in schools have this as a priority? Directive from Ofsted needed?

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STEM Learning to communicate DfE priorities

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STEM Learning to communicate DfE priorities

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DfE priorities for STEM subjects to be communicated to head teachers so that they can see we are meeting our needs.

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Offering ECT networks within CPD packages to support teacher retention.

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Offering ECT networks within CPD packages to support teacher retention.

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SPN has engagement with schools that maybe outside SLPs usual network. The work of SPN directly addresses all the priorities addressed. Greater collaboration between everyone in the SW and SPN can only help everyone, not least the teachers.

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SPN has engagement with schools that maybe outside SLPs usual network. The work of SPN directly addresses all the priorities addressed. Greater collaboration between everyone in the SW and SPN can only help everyone, not least the teachers.

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Linking secondary and primary schools across Cornwall in a conference towards the end of the academic. Creating networks and giving tangible ideas and support for transition

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KS2-3 transition. Huge area to be developed to support.

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KS2-3 transition. Huge area to be developed to support.

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The ECT programme is a hugely onerous on ECTs themselves so accessing subject specific CPD is not necessarily a priority.

We need light touch CPD for them-REMOTE where possible

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Planning packages that include CPD or networks to address DfE priorities e.g. supporting SEND, SKE, narrowing the gap, supporting transition, developing primary science leaders

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Planning packages that include CPD or networks to address DfE priorities e.g. supporting SEND, SKE, narrowing the gap, supporting transition, developing primary science leaders

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Teacher recruitment - if the region has a good reputation for supporting teachers in terms of relevant CPD opportunities, just maybe recruitment in the region may improve?

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Teacher recruitment - if the region has a good reputation for supporting teachers in terms of relevant CPD opportunities, just maybe recruitment in the region may improve?

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FYI....SPN has had a focus on trying to address the gender inbalance in physics for several years before becoming part of the SL offer. The ASE inclusion programme was originally an offshoot of SPN. 

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FYI....SPN has had a focus on trying to address the gender inbalance in physics for several years before becoming part of the SL offer. The ASE inclusion programme was originally an offshoot of SPN. 