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Use these resources to answer your assigned GUIDING QUESTION. Make sure to cite sources. Download the document below to keep track of all your Evidence with sources. You must use at least 5 credible sources in your EVIDENCE so if you need to you may conduct your own search. Do not formulate a CLAIM until you have conducted Research and Finished the EVIDENCE Portion of the form. When finished with the EVIDENCE, formulate your CLAIM. Then, provide your REASONING for your CLAIM supporting it with your EVIDENCE.

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US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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El El Nino and La Nina are complex weather patterns resulting from variations in ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.

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El Niño and La Niña Explained | Ocean Today

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But eventually those trade winds pick up again and sometimes become even stronger than normal. When that happens, they blow the warm water back into the western Pacific and restart the upwelling of cool water towards the surface in the eastern Pacific.

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A vast spot in the Pacific Ocean called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation effects weather the world over. This spot is famous for creating oscillating weather patterns known as El Niño and La Niña.

Here's how these patterns control winter weather in the United States. Following is a transcript of the video.

Here's how El Niño and La Niña affect weather. They're both phases of a weather phenomenon called the "El Niño-Southern Oscillation" or "ENSO."

The ENSO originates in the Pacific near the equator. Water in this vast area oscillates between warm and cold. Its effects are felt around the world.

In the US, its effects are most pronounced in the winter months. When the ENSO's water is warm, it's called an "El Niño."

This means warmer weather for the Northwest and Northeast, wet weather in the Southwest, cooler temps in the Southeast, and more hurricanes in the eastern Pacific.

When the ENSO cools down, it's called a "La Niña." This causes warm weather for the Southern US, and more moisture in the Northwest and Northeast. The North Atlantic will also see more hurricanes.

The ENSO is always fluctuating back and forth but it's not always strong enough to trigger an El Niño or La Niña. An El Niño or La Niña happens every 2 to 7 years on average. El Niño years are slightly more common than La Niña.

In 2017, forecasters think a La Niña is likely So depending on where you live, get your sunscreen/raincoat ready!

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A vast spot in the Pacific Ocean called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation effects weather the world over. This spot is famous for creating oscillating weather patterns known as El Niño and La Niña. Here's how these patterns control winter weather in the United States. Following is a transcript of the video.

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El Niño & La Niña (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)

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El Niño-the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation ("ENSO") climate pattern-is currently chugging along, and forecasters expect it to continue for the next several months, with a 62% chance of lasting through April­-June 2024. It's looking like it will be a strong event.

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We wait in anticipation of droughts and floods when El Niño and La Niña are forecast but what are these climatic events?

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o anomaly for warm (El Nio) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La Ni) events. The threshold is further broken down into Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly), Moderate (1.0 to 1.4), Strong (1.5 to 1.9) and Very Strong (* Changed categories because of transition from ERSSTv4 to by CPC in the calculation of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST).

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El Niño and La Niña events are a natural part of the global climate system. They occur when the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above it change from their neutral ('normal') state for several seasons. El Niño events are associated with a warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, while La Niña events are the reverse, with a sustained cooling of these same areas.

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El Nino and La Nina Seasonal Impacts Dataset | Science On a Sphere

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The effects of El Nino and La Nina vary by season. This dataset consists of four frames that show the winter and summer effects of both El Nino and La Nina. The effects of a strong El Nino include a wetter and cooler than normal winter season in the southern United States, though the Pacific Northwest states tend to be warmer.

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How El Nino and La Nina affect the weather

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How El Nino and La Nina affect the weather

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How El Niño and La Niña affect the winter jet stream and U.S. climate | NOAA Climate.gov

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Last week, NOAA issued a La Niña watch, indicating conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña this winter. What does a La Niña winter typically mean for the U.S.?

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United States El Niño Impacts | NOAA Climate.gov

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How does El Niño affect U.S. winter temperature and precipitation?

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Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast | El Nino and La Nina

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UGA Extension agents, staff and trained volunteers keep local communities informed through county Extension offices. We offer reliable information and programs in the areas of agriculture, food, families, the environment, and 4-H youth development. Let us help you learn, grow, and do more!

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Temperatures are expected to be above average in much of the South this winter. The Northwest has the highest odds of seeing colder-than-average temperatures.

Precipitation will split between wet across the northern states and dry through the South.

La Niña may play a role in the weather conditions this winter.

Winter 2017-2018 will feature a nationwide split between colder-than-average and wet conditions in parts of the northern states, while the southern tier will see warmer-than-average and dry conditions overall, according to outlooks released this week by NOAA and The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Weak La Niña conditions are expected to develop this winter, and that may influence the large-scale weather conditions this winter ahead. Last week, NOAA indicated there was a 55 to 65 percent chance of La Niña conditions during the upcoming winter.

Winter (December through February) temperature outlooks from both The Weather Company and NOAA feature some similarities for what is typically expected in a La Niña winter.

"As is typical in La Niña base state winters, we expect the greatest risk of cold early in the winter in the eastern U.S., with the cold retreating towards the Pacific Northwest as the winter progresses," says Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.
(MORE: Latest La Niña Update)
La Niña, El Niño, or the lack of either, known as the neutral phase, is only one large-scale forcing on the atmosphere. It is not arbiter in determining whether a season is wet, dry, cold or warm. Other factors are in play, including atmospheric blocking.

Below are the national details on what to expect.

Temperature Outlook

The temperature forecast for this winter has a strong La Niña flavor with the highest odds of below-average temperatures from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Pacific Northwest.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are most likely to be found across the southern tier of the United States. A mild winter is typical throughout the South during La Niña winters.

Since last winter featured a weak La Nina, Crawford says it's reasonable to use it as an analog for this winter's forecast.

Last winter, much of the East into the South and Midwest had one of their warmest winters while the Northwest was colder-than-average.

Two of the top 10 warmest winters dating to 1895 in the Lower 48 have occurred in back-to-back years. Last winter was the seventh warmest and 2015-2016 was all-time record warm winter.

However, Crawford cautioned against simply assuming last winter will repeat itself exactly this winter, if this winter has more blocking weather patterns in the upper atmosphere.

One particular blocking weather pattern would feature a southward dip in the jet stream east of the Rockies that could "lock in" for extended periods of time, leading to shivering results.

"The colder winter scenario would be if blocking emerges early and often, which would result in more widespread and anomalous cold across the major heating demand regions of the eastern U.S.," Crawford added.

On the other hand, if a less blocking scenario panned out, conditions would be similar to last year with below-average temperatures confined to the Pacific Northwest.

Keep in mind, these outlooks are overall trends over a three-month period from December-February.

An individual cold front or an upper ridge of high pressure can lead to a period of colder or warmer weather, respectively, that bucks the overall three-month trend. The same front or area of high pressure can bring a brief period of enhanced precipitation or dry spell that may or may not be indicative of the overall trend that is forecast.

Precipitation Outlook

NOAA's precipitation forecast also has some correlation with what is expected in a La Niña winter.

Portions of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and northern Rockies have the highest odds of above-average precipitation this winter. Depending on temperatures at any given time this winter, we could see increased odds of snow in those regions.

Meanwhile, the South could be in for a dry winter, which is typical during La Niña. If this pans out as forecast, there is the possibility of growing drought conditions in parts of the Southeast, and it may also give a boost to wildfire danger in this region next spring.
(MORE: Winter Storm Names 2017-2018)
What is La Nina?

La Niña/El Niño, the periodic cooling/warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, can shift weather patterns over a period of months, bringing the possibility of more sustained warm, cold, wet or dry weather in parts of the world.

Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have been running below average recently. That is why NOAA is forecasting the potential for La Niña conditions to develop later this fall or winter.

You can see the patch of cooler-than-average waters in place across the equatorial Pacific waters shaded blue in the image to the right. Though water temperatures are below average, they have not reached the threshold for a La Niña event quite yet.

The peak atmospheric response to the equatorial Pacific anomalies tends to occur in the Northern Hemisphere's winter months. This is why the possible development of La Niña or its counterpart El Niño receives a large amount of attention prior to winter.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)
During last winter's weak La Niña, the West and Upper Midwest had one of their wettest winters on record, while a large swath of the East, South and Midwest had one of their warmest winters.

Winter 2015-2016 featured a strong El Niño that had major weather pattern impacts around the world.

It's important to note that La Niña/El Niño is not a factor every winter since many times equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures run near average, meaning so-called neutral conditions exist.

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Winter Forecast Released: North Will Be Wet, South Will Be Dry and Warm

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Temperatures are expected to be above average in much of the South this winter. The Northwest has the highest odds of seeing colder-than-average temperatures. Precipitation will split between wet across the northern states and dry through the South. La Niña may play a role in the weather conditions this winter.

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Environmental Impacts of El Nino and La Nina

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Environmental Impacts of El Nino and La Nina

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We know that there are many anthropogenic forcings on the climate, particularly the volume of carbon and greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere as a part of our everyday lives. Yet there are a number of natural processes that affect local weather, regional climate and global conditions. Some effects on our climate are a result of fluctuations and anomalies in the complex water conveyor belts of the ocean currents of the world. These fluctuations are known as "oscillations" and the two best-known oscillations are El Niño and La Niña (1) (2).

The latter is the opposite of the former and make up an oscillation known as ENSO. Understanding them requires knowledge of a broad range of data from multiple disciplines. Typically, researchers who understand the processes and study their causes and effects have post-graduate degrees in such disciplines as oceanography, geography, climatology and meteorology. The phenomena and the data extrapolated from them, have applications for palaeoclimatology (the study of climate in the past), anthropology, palaeobotany and archaeology, particularly in what we can extrapolate from the changes to tree ring data (dendrochronology) (3).

Oscillations occur naturally in oceans all across the world; some have a limited impact on the regional weather and wider climate, and some have a much greater impact (4). El Niño and La Niña are examples of oscillations that have a greater impact on our climate with effects that are perhaps surprisingly felt all over the globe (5). In economies that are dependent on certain weather conditions occurring regularly and on time (annual summer rainfall, spring ice melt etc), erratic oscillations can cause problems in these areas leading to drought. Knock on effects can lead to fish migrations and economic hardship for areas that rely on fish stocks. Marginal areas suffer or thrive depending on the effects of El Niño and La Niña leading to further knock on effects elsewhere (4).

El Niño and La Niña: What Are They?

Both El Niño and La Niña are opposite effects of the same phenomenon: the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). Both are an oscillation in the temperatures between the atmosphere and the ocean of the eastern equatorial Pacific region, roughly between the International Dateline and 120 degrees west (2). El Niño - the conditions for which build up between June and December (15) - is caused by a change in the wind patterns (5). Here, the Pacific Trade Winds fail to replenish following the summer monsoons of Asia (7). This warmer air leads to an oscillation between the cooler and warmer waters, leading to warmer ocean temperatures than normal.

It was Peruvian fishermen roughly around the start of the 20th century who first noticed the correlation between temperature changes and anchovy stocks that led to the development of study in this area (4), though they had noticed variations in fish stock for centuries. Every three to seven years and between December and January, there is a massive tailing off of stocks of the fish that the local economy relies on (7). Why does this happen? Up-swellings from the sea bed occur in normal years that bring nutrients up to the plankton to feed on and in turn abundance of plankton is beneficial to marine life up the food chain. In an El Niño year, that swelling does not occur so the plankton is reduced and in turn, so are the fish stocks, mostly through failure to reproduce (8).

La Niña is effectively the opposite of El Niño, indicated by prolonged periods of sea temperatures in the same region (2), and the effects stated above are generally reversed. During non El Niño years, atmospheric pressure is lower than normal over the western Pacific area and higher over the colder waters of the western Pacific, as already discussed. With La Niña, the Trade Winds are particularly strong in carrying warmer water westwards across the Pacific leading to colder than average temperatures in the east and warmer than average temperatures in the west (9). The result is that plankton increases in the areas where the temperature is cooler, leading to a positive effect on the marine life that depends on plankton or depends on those creatures that depend on plankton (11).

It is commonly expected that La Niña will follow immediately on from an El Niño event, but this is not always the case (14). Typically, both occur every three to five years but they have varied anything between two and seven years. Both phenomena last anything between nine and twelve months.

How Does El Niño Affect Conditions?

Typically, it comes around every five years and what usually happens is that warming in the oceans caused by the winds leads to diffusion of this warming all over the globe. It changes atmospheric pressures with consequences for rainfall, wind patterns, sea surface temperatures and can sometimes have a positive, and sometimes a negative effect on those systems (4). In Europe for example, El Niño reduces the instances of hurricanes in the Atlantic (8). The beginning of the El Niño system will be seen over North America in the preceding winter (2); typically they include:

* Mild winter temperatures over western Canada and north western USA
* Above average precipitation in the Gulf Coast, including Florida
* A drier than average period in Ohio and pacific northwest

The effects of El Niño can sometime be erratic and are not always be predictable. For example, conditions at the start of 2014 were remarkably similar to the 1997/8 ENSO event and so therefore it was expected to be an El Niño year. Yet, as late as August, the initial warning signs were not appearing in the atmosphere to precede warming in the oceans meaning that the likelihood of El Niño occurring was dropping off but not entirely eliminated (5). Whether this is another effect of climate change is yet to be seen. However, some oceanographic institutes still predict that El Niño will take place in the autumn months, pointing to warming throughout August and the sometimes late nature of the development of El Niño (6).

How Does La Niña Affect Conditions?

Like El Niño, it too affects atmospheric pressure and temperature, rainfall and ocean temperature. In Europe, El Niño reduces the number of autumnal hurricanes. La Niña has less of an effect in Europe but it does tend to lead to milder winters in Northern Europe (the United Kingdom especially) and colder winters in southern/western Europe (12) leading to snow in the Mediterranean region. Elsewhere in the world, areas that are affected by La Niña experience the opposite of the effects they experience with El Niño (9). It is continental North America where most of these conditions are felt. The wider effects include (1):

* Stronger winds along the equatorial region, especially in the Pacific
* Decreased convection in the Pacific leading to a weaker jet stream
* temperatures are above average in the southeast and below average in the northwest
* Conditions are more favourable for hurricanes in the Caribbean and central Atlantic area
* Greater instances of tornados in those states of the US already vulnerable to them

In the western Pacific, the formation of cyclones shifts westwards which increases the potential for landfall in those areas most vulnerable to their affects, and especially into continental Asia and China (13). There is greater rainfall in the west too, especially in Australia, Indonesia and Malaysia (10) and further westwards toward the southern countries in the African continent. Consequently, over the US and Canada there will be lower than average precipitation and this pattern follows the coast southwards where the western portion of South America will also experience lower than average rainfall.

Climate Change

How El Niño and La Niña will change or affect climate change in the future is now of tremendous importance thanks to the known effects over the last century or more - and the conditions are still not very well understood, though the phenomenon has been known since the early 1600s (2). For climate scientists, this is a grey area as to whether it will have an impact on the climate, or whether they will be affected by climate change (14). Some recent research has suggested that the effects of the ENSO will worsen as the climate changes (16).

It is important for lives and livelihood, for economies and insurers to understand the potential for damage caused by extreme weather such as El Niño and La Niña so their continued study is of vital importance. Historical records have built up to the point that researchers have a clear idea of what the likely effects of each ENSO is likely to be in any given year. A paper in 2013 compiled the effects from records going back 700 years and how they have impacted global conditions in this time (2). The question is not settled, though many scientific institutes have devoted much time to the study of the ENSO (15) and conflicting data says that ENSO may become the increasing norm.

1. http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/ENSO.html

2. http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html

3. http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n9/full/nclimate1936.html

4. http://www.whoi.edu/main/topic/el-nino-other-oscillations

5. http://skepticalscience.com/this-year-el-nino-real-enigma.html

6. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

7. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ElNino/

8. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ElNino/elnino2.php

9. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/LaNina/

10. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/LaNina/la_nina_2.php

11. http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/plankton_elnino.html

12. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/la-nina-2011

13. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442%282004%29017%3C1419%3AIOENOE%3E2.0.CO%3B2

14. http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html

15. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/05/el-nino-global-warming/

16. http://www.climatecentral.org/news/is-texas-toast

Nuclear Energy 101

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Environmental Impact of El Niño and La Niña | EnvironmentalScience.org

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We know that there are many anthropogenic forcings on the climate, particularly the volume of carbon and greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere as a part of our everyday lives. Yet there are a number of natural processes that affect local weather, regional climate and global conditions.

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has released its winter outlook. This forecast is not a guide for deciding your detailed ski vacation or New Year's Eve plans, but it may give you an idea of which winter coat you should buy for the season and if you need to stock up on whiskey and coffee.

"It would be quite surprising to see a third very warm winter in a row," said Mike Halpert, the deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

He said the forecast shows conditions will be warmer, but he doesn't think we will see a top 10 record warm winter like we have the past two years.

Temperature forecast

You can probably leave the long underwear in storage if you live in the South. NOAA says two-thirds of the continental US will likely experience warmer-than-normal conditions.

The East Coast has anywhere from a 33%-40% chance of having an above-average winter. This doesn't mean a cold snap or two won't happen, it's just less likely.

The Northern Plains and Northwest are the only locations the CPC thinks the winter season will be below average. The rest of the continental US has equal chances of experiencing a normal winter -- meaning residents there will have equal chances of having above, near or below-normal temperatures.

Precipitation forecast

You may want to get a waterproof jacket this season if you live in the northern Rockies or Midwest. The CPC is forecasting above-average precipitation in these areas, while a stretch from Southern California to the Carolinas is expected to be drier. Northern Florida and south Georgia -- regions that have had drought conditions within the past year, but not now -- have the greatest probability of drier conditions.

Drought could develop in some areas of the South due to the drier conditions -- especially in areas that missed the rainfall associated with the active 2017 hurricane season.

The winter pattern that is setting up looks to favor storm tracks across the northern tier of the country. This pattern makes it less likely to have Mid-Atlantic and New England coastal storms that develop in the Gulf of Mexico and track up the East Coast.

La Niña is to blame

We are currently in a La Niña watch, according to the CPC's October discussion. Forecasters give about a 55%-65% chance during the fall and winter that La Niña will fully form.

The effects of El Niño and La Niña are much more noticeable during the winter months across the US. If La Niña forms, this will have a direct impact on the weather this winter.

"If La Nina conditions develop, we predict it will be weak and potentially short-lived, but it could still shape the character of the upcoming winter," said Halpert.

During a typical La Niña winter, the Northwest and Midwest are typically colder and wetter, while the Southwest to Southeast remains drier than average.

This all happens because the Pacific jet stream meanders higher into Alaska and Canada, helping to keep some of the dips in the jet stream farther north across the Eastern US.

It doesn't mean that the Southeast will escape winter weather altogether -- the chances are just lower, and the average temperature is likely to be above average.

If La Niña does not form as expected, the updated winter outlook issued in mid-November will look different.

Just how accurate is this forecast?

If we look at last year's winter outlook, most of the US would likely give forecasters a B+ rating on their 2016-2017 temperature outlook.

A year ago, they predicted an outlook very similar to this year's forecast: warm across the South and cooler across the Northern Plains. They were right about above-average temperatures across the South. However, the jet stream set up a little bit differently than expected and the below-average temperatures expected in the Northern Plains occurred farther west into the Northwestern US.

So, in the big picture, they were close, but if you live in Seattle, you might have had a few choice words to say about last year's snowy winter and the big fluffy jacket you didn't buy.

Then there was the precipitation outlook last year. If we stay with the grade-school analogy, forecasters still passed, but their predictions were just slightly better than flipping a coin.

We again turn our attention to the West, where the overall winter forecast was for drier weather, especially in the Southwest. But multiple atmospheric river events in December, January and February of last year wrecked that prediction. Again, overall a passing grade.

Winter is coming

So, look at the big picture: Winter is coming, and we have a bit of an idea as to where.

But there are a lot of dynamics at play here -- thermodynamics in fact -- and this is not a pinpoint forecast showing you where it will or won't snow this season. Instead, this is a way to help you mentally prepare yourself for what lies ahead this winter.

Now you know that you might want to buy a raincoat for every day of the week in the Northwest, while in the South you will likely get away with a lighter coat or vest most of the winter.

The coffee and/or whiskey are just a given no matter where you are this winter.

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winter 2017-2018: noaa forecasts warmer winter - cnn

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Winter 2017-2018: NOAA says the weather outside might not be so frightful

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has released its winter outlook. This forecast is not a guide for deciding your detailed ski vacation or New Year's Eve plans, but it may give you an idea of which winter coat you should buy for the season and if you need to stock up on whiskey and coffee.

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ATLANTA, GA - Georgians, would you be sad if you had a winter without snow? The latest in a trio of winter weather forecasts, this one from AccuWeather, predicts that the Peach State could have temperatures above normal. But residents could see two or three ice storms, which brings life to a halt in that Atlanta area.

Air temperatures will run above normal in most of the Southeast, especially Florida and Georgia, where the risk of a damaging freeze is lower than in past years. Florida, inundated with rain after Hurricane Irma, is expected to remain mostly dry. In the western areas of the region, weather could be colder overall, and forecasters said a few ice storms could hit the area stretching from the Tennessee Valley to northeast Texas.

Tornadoes aren't out of the question, either. In January 2017, the area from Texas to Georgia was pummeled by 137 tornadoes. Paul Pastelok, the lead long-range weather forecaster for AccuWeather, expects the region to experience tornadoes in February. ( Get Patch's Daily Newsletter and Real Time News Alerts. Or, if you have an iPhone, download the free Patch app.)
SEE ALSO: Farmers' Almanac Releases Winter 2018 Georgia Weather Forecast

Residents of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic states, New York City or Boston may all see more snow this winter than last year's relatively flake-free season. If you live in the Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest, you may want to dig out your wool socks and extra layers, according to a new winter forecast released Wednesday. Temperatures in the northern Plains could plummet to below 30 degrees below zero, the forecast says.

AccuWeather says areas that typically receive large amounts of lake-effect snow - Cleveland, Ohio; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Buffalo, New York - should brace for mountains of snow and frequent shoveling. Both snow and ice are predicted in Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois and throughout the Northeast. "A very chilly winter is in store," the weather service says.

Winter will be comparatively balmy in the Southern Plains, the Southwest and southern California, where forecasters say winter will be milder and drier than last year.
Disagreements on Georgia Forecasts

Pastelok says that winter temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region should be within a few inches of normal. "Areas in the I-95 corridor will average close to normal, within a few inches," he said. "Areas away from the I-95 corridor have a better chance at a big snowfall."

SEE ALSO: Old Farmer's Almanac Issues Winter 2018 Georgia Forecast

But there is disagreement in the various long-range forecasts. The Old Farmer's Almanac winter weather forecast released in September calls for winter to be warmer and rainier than normal, with below-normal precipitation. The coldest periods will be in early January and early February, while the best chances for snow will come in early January and early February.

The Old Farmer's Almanac forecast is a stark contrast to the predictions of competing publication the Farmer's Almanac.

In August, the Farmer's Almanac predicted Georgia will experience a cold and soggy winter with "below-normal" temperatures in the region, "with an unseasonable chill reaching as far south as the Gulf Coast, with above-average precipitation." Are you hoping for (or perhaps dreading) some snow in the Atlanta area? If so, Farmer's Almanac thinks it knows when the best chance for it will be.

The periodical is red-flagging January 20-23, February 4-7 and 16-19 and March 1-3 and 20-23 as days when the Atlantic Seaboard is likely to get some heavy precipitation. And, well, we here in the Atlanta area know how that sometimes ends. Snowpocalypse 2018, anyone?
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States
"Good news for skiers and snow enthusiasts, but for those looking to build sandcastles, not-so-good news, but a good time to book that tropical getaway," the Almanac's editors wrote.

Here's a closer look at the forecast in different parts of the country:
Northern Plains
It will be colder than last year and snowfall is expected to be normal to above-normal, depending on where you live. In addition to Cleveland, Erie and Buffalo, snowfall in New York City and Boston could be about 6 inches above normal, "within a few inches," Pastelok said.

"Areas away from the I-95 corridor have a better chance at a big snowfall," he said.
Southern Plains
Arctic cold blasts are expected to plunge Montana, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa and most of Missouri into the deep freeze on a regular basis, but the drier, colder air will carry less moisture, so huge, frequent snowfalls shouldn't be a problem.

The coldest air - minus 30-degree Fahrenheit temperatures (and that doesn't include the windchill) - will be in the Dakotas, Pastelok said.

The chilliest temperatures could come in mid-winter, and arctic air blowing in from Canada could lead to freezes in late January, Pastelok said. Overall, though, a cold winter isn't predicted.

Despite roller-coaster temperatures overall, southwest Texas could experience above-normal temperatures.

And while some storms are predicted, the winter will be mostly dry in the Southern Plains.

"We do feel there are going to be some storms in northwest Texas at times," Pastelok said. "Southwest Texas could see some but not as frequent as in past winters."

A weak La Niña predicted to develop this winter is expected to provide ideal skiing conditions in the Northwest, including the Cascades, and the Rockies.
Southwest
"I think the Bitterroot chain all the way down to the Wasatch region in the central and northern Rockies has a good shot to be above normal on snowfall this season," Pastelok said.

Northern California's Sierra Nevada mountain range is expected to be less snowy, but the area should receive enough snowfall for good skiing conditions - but it's not likely to be so significant that people won't be able to reach resorts, Pastelok said.

Dry, warm weather is predicted. In fact, Pastelok said, temperatures could reach into the 90s by early 2018.

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Winter Forecast For Georgia: What To Expect In 2017-18

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ATLANTA, GA - Georgians, would you be sad if you had a winter without snow? The latest in a trio of winter weather forecasts, this one from AccuWeather, predicts that the Peach State could have temperatures above normal. But residents could see two or three ice storms, which brings life to a halt in that Atlanta area.

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La Niña, the cooler sibling of El Niño, is likely to form over the next few months, federal government forecasters said Thursday.

Specifically, there's a 55 to 65% chance that a La Niña will develop during the fall and winter of 2017-18, the Climate Prediction Center said.

The La Niña climate pattern - a natural cycle marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the central Pacific Ocean - is one of the main drivers of weather in the U.S. and around the world, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring.

A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according to the prediction center. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic also tend to see warmer-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter.

However, the Upper Midwest into New York and New England tend to see colder-than-average temperatures, the Weather Channel said.

Globally, La Niña often brings heavy rainfall to Indonesia, the Philippines, northern Australia and southern Africa.

The prediction center said we are now under a "La Niña watch," which means the pattern is likely to form within the next few months.

The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a see-saw dance of warmer and cooler seawater in the Pacific Ocean.

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La Niña is expected this winter. What will that mean for our weather?

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CLOSE La Niña, the cooler sibling of El Niño, is likely to form over the next few months, federal government forecasters said Thursday. Specifically, there's a 55 to 65% chance that a La Niña will develop during the fall and winter of 2017-18, the Climate Prediction Center said.

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El Niño and its Effect on the Southeast U.S.

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Typical El Niño impacts for the Southeast U.S. during winter are shown in Figure 1. The Gulf Coast generally sees cooler and wetter conditions, not because of numerous arctic outbreaks, but because of the stronger influence of the subtropical jet stream. Storm tracks are farther south on average, producing more clouds, rain, and severe weather.

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- Winter is coming, so let's get right to the point. Here are the top 5 things you need to know about our winter forecast for the 2017-18 season:

#1: With a weak La Niña forecast, we favor temperatures this winter to be COLDER THAN LAST YEAR, but also to come in SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL overall.

#2: While we anticipate MORE SNOW THAN LAST YEAR, we are forecasting average to BELOW AVERAGE SNOWFALL for the immediate Washington, D.C. region.

#3: We are forecasting JANUARY to be THE COLDEST MONTH with about average temperatures, while we favor slightly above normal temperatures in December and February.

#4: Similar to last year, we expect issues with the rain/mix/snow line to cut down on snowfall totals for some events this year. The ODDS OF AN ICE EVENT ARE ABOVE NORMAL compared to the average winter.

#5: While one can never be ruled out, A BIG SNOW STORM IS NOT FAVORED THIS YEAR (big = 10"+ in downtown D.C.) due to a weak La Niña. 1-2 snow events of 4-8" are more favored.

If you're ready to dig a little deeper into what lies ahead this winter, buckle in and we'll break it down for you. But first, a quick recap.

Last Year: A Winter To Forget
Last winter was not a kind one to forecasters and snow lovers alike. A number of climate signals were pointing towards a cold winter with the potential for an above normal snowfall season. Many winter outlooks, including our own, were forecasting this.

While we did not favor a major snow event last winter (the one bright spot in the forecast), we expected a higher than normal number of snow events, similar to the winter of 2013-2014 which featured a high number of smaller, clipper storms.

Believe it or not, the winter began almost as expected, with some bitter cold air blasting into the region in mid-December. On December 16, the District woke up to temperatures in the teens with single digit lows out in the western suburbs.

After a brief break, the cold roared in yet again just after New Year's with parts of the region picking up their first inch of snow on January 8 ahead of single-digit lows recorded at Dulles on January 9. These waves of cold were expected to continue as we closed out the second half of the month and headed into February, but that was not to be the case.

Instead, a shift in the pattern allowed southern warmth to flood back into the region. Just four days after hitting their coldest low of the winter at 15°, temperatures in Washington, DC hit 72° on January 12-- the warmest temperature for that date in over a century. While the cold would come again at times, it was heavily outweighed by mild conditions the remainder of the winter.

There was a noticeable lack of snow as well. It took all the way until the middle of March for most of the region to see their one decent snow event of the year. The event began on the evening of March 13, with downtown Washington waking up to an icy, slushy 2" of snow on the morning of March 14.

By the end of the snow season, Reagan National picked up just 3.4" of snow total, pushing the year into the top 10 for winters with the least amount of snow for the District of Columbia. With only 7.3" seen at Dulles, it became their 8th worst snowfall season on record.

The Remainder Of Fall
All eyes are on the Pacific typhoon season for November, with late October showing several storms in the far eastern Pacific expected to push northward over the next week. Despite being so far away from the United States, the typhoons moving in this manner disrupts the Arctic pattern enough that colder air is move favored over the eastern half of the United States.

This should get November off to a chilly start compared to normal. This matches well with a La Niña pattern, which also favors a cooler than normal November. However, current suggestions are that beyond the first week of November the pattern will take on a more average November look, with the potential for some occasional southern warmth to sneak northward during the middle and latter half of the month. Therefore, we are expecting an average winter.

The Winter Ahead
Given all of the factors discussed above, temperature-wise nationally we are leaning towards cold-focused through the Upper Midwest with above normal temperatures focused in the Southeast and Southwest, a pattern very that is very typical of La Niña. For the Washington, D.C. region, this means slightly above normal temperatures are favored.

This does not mean a warm-dominated winter, however, as we also favor a very variable winter in terms of temperatures with lots of back and forth between cold and mild periods. We don't see this winter as "locked in" cold, but do not see it as "predominantly warm" either. Our analysis favored slightly above normal temperatures in December and February, while January may be closer to average or perhaps even a bit below average.

In terms of snowfall, La Niña winters tend to have more of an inland storm track that brings the best snowfall to the interior as opposed to coastal storms that bring the big snowfall events to the I-95 corridor. The latter tends to be more favored during an El Niño season.

The interior storm track should make for a good ski season for the interior highlands of the Northeast, with above normal snowfall also favored in the Great Lakes region. Coastal cities in the Mid-Atlantic will likely find themselves mixing snow with rain in the bigger events, with the all snow events a little moisture starved therefore coming with smaller snowfall totals.

That brings us to our immediate area. Any winter snowfall map you see like the one above are admittedly guesses, but there is some science and statistics behind the numbers that you see. It is a fact that the most snow Washington, D.C. has ever received in a weak La Niña winter was 17.1 way back in 1964-1965.

Of the 10 weak La Niña winters history in D.C. stretching back to the 1950s, only five of them have seen snowfall above 10". Average snowfall in D.C. during a weak La Niña is just 10.9", so in this regard our 11-17" of snow is above normal for a typical La Niña year-- but still below normal snowfall for the typical snow season.

Historically, these winters have featured several smaller scale snow events (under 4") with one or two medium size (4-8") snow events. The District's three biggest snowfall events during La Niña winters all came during either a moderate or strong La Niña event, and with a weak event favored this winter we are not favoring a major blizzard this season, favoring several smaller events instead.

We believe moisture-rich storms that do make it into our region this season will come with enough mild air that we are seeing mixing problems east of I-81 corridor, similar to the mess our region saw with the mid-March storm last year. West of I-81, conditions seem more favorable for a more typical snow season, and I believe the highlands of West Virginia will be just fine in regards to snow this winter.

Given the temperature outlook, January is the month we favor for seeing the most snowfall of the forecasted amount. However, much like last year, the threat for snow and ice events will likely linger through the first half of March. The risk for ice storms is greater in a La Niña winter as well, and we will have to be on guard for these particularly during the latter half of the winter and into early spring.

Making The Winter Forecast
Let's kick off the winter forecast with the same disclaimer I give every year: WINTER FORECASTS DO NOT TEND TO BE TOO ACCURATE. The fact of the matter is there is no one meteorological feature we can look to that is going to give us a clear picture of what the winter holds.

Instead, winter forecasts are a mixture of various model forecasts and climate signals, and then revisiting past winters to see what those with similar features held for our region. The simple fact is no two winter seasons are alike, and the upcoming winter is sure to hold its own surprises. Needless to say, the confidence in this forecast is on the low side when compared to something like a 7-day forecast.

The best indicator we have is whether or not we are looking at an El Niño or La Niña pattern if one is in place. This weather feature has to do with ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and whether or not they are above normal (El Niño) or below normal (La Niña) and is a major player in winter in the United States.

Historically speaking, El Niño events have brought some of the snowiest winters to our region, while La Niña winters have not tended to be as kind to snow lovers in our region. Similar to last year, the vast majority of models are forecasting a weak La Niña for the upcoming winter season.

Data from the National Weather Service shows that weak La Niña winters tend to bring slightly above average temperatures to our region during the winter. Much of this has to do with high pressure over the Southeast which tends to allow some Gulf warmth to occasionally push northward into the D.C. region.

The position of the jet stream is also important, as during a La Niña it tends to be just north of our region. This means that winter storms that for tend to track either up through the Great Lakes region or up the western edge of the Appalachian Mountains. These storm tracks place the Washington, D.C. metro region on the eastern side of the storm, which is the warm side of the storm where precipitation tends to be either more of a mix or completely rain.

Are there exceptions? Absolutely. The problem for snow lovers is that historically as far back as La Niña/El Niño records go (1950), you can count on one hand the number of major snow events the region has seen during a La Niña winter.

According to the National Weather Service, only twice in any La Niña winter has Washington, D.C. recorded a single snow event that dropped more than 10" of snow. The most recent major La Niña storm occurred over two decades ago, the blizzard of January 1996. No single storm during a La Niña since the turn of the century has dropped more than 10" of snow on the District. Only 24 percent of all La Niña years on record feature above normal snowfall.

Looking at recent history, there have been seven La Niña winters since the year 2000 and together they only average just 8.1" of snow a season. Only three of those years had seasonal snowfall above 10" total, with most years featuring a below normal number of measurable snowfall events.

Statistically, history is working against us. But could this be one of the rare La Niña seasons that surprises with a lot of snow? To try and answer this question we looked at the spread of ocean temperatures across the North Pacific, a feature known to forecasters as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO.

Although data is limited, the two weak La Niña cases with above normal snowfall featured colder ocean water along the western United States coastline. This is known as a -PDO pattern. Unfortunately for snow lovers the current forecast is calling for more of a neutral PDO look, which is more typical of the years with below normal snowfall.

Other factors considered when making this forecast that we will not go into as much detail into are the so far average expanse of snowfall in Siberia this year, global wind anomalies (known as GLAAM) that are more typical with a weak La Nina, as well as the current levels of solar/sunspot activity. All these factors support our winter forecast.

Hope for snow lovers!
In our analysis, one feature did show up historically that may give some hope to the snow lovers in our region. Years with a similar overall pattern to the one we are forecasting this winter tended to favor a blocking pattern over Greenland. Known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), when this block is in place (-NAO) cold air can become trapped in the East Coast of the United States.

Many of the largest snowstorms in Washington, D.C. history have come when this feature is in place. The block itself helps buckle the jet stream, allowing storms to take a more southern track which is necessary for bigger snows in our region. IF the DC region is going to get more snow, this feature needs to be active throughout the winter months. In our region, one big storm is often all that is needed for an above average snow season.

There you have it! Our official FOX 5 Winter Outlook for the 2017-2018 winter season. Please keep in mind as you go forward that an outlook is more of a guide than an actual forecast. There is a lot of science and research that goes into it, but at the end of the day, Mother Nature is her own beast and she really does not care about what one little forecaster thinks she is going to do this winter. She is going to do her own thing.

Just like the weather forecast can change from day to day, there is still plenty of time for things to evolve as winter draws closer. So enjoy the read, but do not write it off as a guarantee!

Winter officially begins on Thursday, December 21 at 11:29 a.m. and stretches all the way until Tuesday, March 20 at 12:16 p.m. We will be with you every day this winter to keep you up to date on any winter weather that comes our way, no matter how much or how little!

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2017-18 Winter Outlook for DC: Colder, more snow than last year

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Winter is coming, so let's get right to the point. Here are the top 5 things you need to know about our winter forecast for the 2017-18 season: #1: With a weak La Niña forecast, we favor temperatures this winter to be COLDER THAN LAST YEAR, but also to come in SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL overall.

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By: UnofficialNet | July 24, 2017
Forecast, outlooks, predictions, everyone wants to know who is going to get the big winter storms during the 2017 - 2018 winter. To help in our projections, the National Weather Service has released some long range forecast maps for the upcoming winter. Also Read: Farmers Almanac 2018 Winter Weather Prediction
What NOAA's official maps are showing us is that with an onset of La Niña, this winter will see most of the PNW and northern rockies with an above average chance of precipitation. Temperature probability for much of the United States is a little more clear with NOAA calling for above average temperatures, everywhere except for the northernmost reaches of the western USA.

"The October ENSO forecast says La Niña conditions are favored during the fall and winter 2017-18, but at press time the ocean-atmosphere system didn't quite meet the criteria for a La Niña Advisory." - NOAA

Currently, our focus is on the Northern Rockies, where NOAA is predicting above average precipitation for the 2017/2018 season. That precipitation is projected to be accompanied by colder than average temps, making for all-time conditions throughout the season.

Official Winter Outlook From NOAA
Winter Weather Forecast December - January - February 2017-18

Precipitation Probability

Temperature Probability

La Niña:

The Climate Prediction Center is saying there is a good chance of La Niña developing early this winter chance. The typical La Niña pattern delivers a more northern leaning jet-stream, delivering snow and cold temps to the PNW and Northern Rockies.

Also Read: Atmospheric River Events Can Make or Break Your Ski Season. Here is Why.

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2018 Winter Weather Forecast | Long Range Prediction From NOAA

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By: UnofficialNet | July 24, 2017 Forecast, outlooks, predictions, everyone wants to know who is going to get the big winter storms during the 2017 - 2018 winter. To help in our projections, the National Weather Service has released some long range forecast maps for the upcoming winter.

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El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño is the "warm phase" of a larger phenomenon called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). La Niña, the "cool phase" of ENSO, is a pattern that describes the unusual cooling of the region's surface waters. El Niño and La Niña are considered the ocean part of ENSO, while the Southern Oscillation is its atmospheric changes.

El Niño has an impact on ocean temperatures, the speed and strength of ocean currents, the health of coastal fisheries, and local weather from Australia to South America and beyond. El Niño events occur irregularly at two- to seven-year intervals. However, El Niño is not a regular cycle, or predictable in the sense that ocean tides are.

El Niño was recognized by fishers off the coast of Peru as the appearance of unusually warm water. We have no real record of what indigenous Peruvians called the phenomenon, but Spanish immigrants called it El Niño, meaning "the little boy" in Spanish. When capitalized, El Niño means the Christ Child, and was used because the phenomenon often arrived around Christmas. El Niño soon came to describe irregular and intense climate changes rather than just the warming of coastal surface waters.

Led by the work of Sir Gilbert Walker in the 1930s, climatologists determined that El Niño occurs simultaneously with the Southern Oscillation. The Southern Oscillation is a change in air pressure over the tropical Pacific Ocean. When coastal waters become warmer in the eastern tropical Pacific (El Niño), the atmospheric pressure above the ocean decreases. Climatologists define these linked phenomena as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Today, most scientists use the terms El Niño and ENSO interchangeably.

Scientists use the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) to measure deviations from normal sea-surface temperatures. El Niño events are indicated by sea surface temperature increases of more than 0.9° Fahrenheit for at least five successive three-month seasons. The intensity of El Niño events varies from weak temperature increases (about 4-5° F) with only moderate local effects on weather and climate to very strong increases (14-18° F) associated with worldwide climatic changes.

In order to understand the development of El Niño, it's important to be familiar with non-El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Normally, strong trade winds blow westward across the tropical Pacific, the region of the Pacific Ocean located between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. These winds push warm surface water toward the western Pacific, where it borders Asia and Australia.

Due to the warm trade winds, the sea surface is normally about 0.5 meter (1.5 feet) higher and 7.2° C (12.96° F) warmer in Indonesia than Ecuador. The westward movement of warmer waters causes cooler waters to rise up toward the surface on the coasts of Ecuador, Peru, and Chile. This process is known as upwelling.

Upwelling elevates cold, nutrient-rich water to the euphotic zone, the upper layer of the ocean. Nutrients in the cold water include nitrates and phosphates. Tiny organisms called phytoplankton use them for photosynthesis, the process that creates chemical energy from sunlight. Other organisms, such as clams, eat the plankton, while predators like fish or marine mammals prey on clams.

Upwelling provides food for a wide variety of marine life, including most major fisheries. Fishing is one of the primary industries of Peru, Ecuador, and Chile. Some of the fisheries include anchovy, sardine, mackerel, shrimp, tuna, and hake.

The upwelling process also influences global climate. The warm ocean temperature in the western Pacific contributes to increased rainfall around the islands of Indonesia and New Guinea. The air influenced by the cool eastern Pacific, along the coast of South America, remains relatively dry.

El Niño Events

El Niño events are defined by their wide-ranging teleconnections. Teleconnections are large-scale, long-lasting climate anomalies or patterns that are related to each other and can affect much of the globe.

During an El Niño event, westward-blowing trade winds weaken along the Equator. These changes in air pressure and wind speed cause warm surface water to move eastward along the Equator, from the western Pacific to the coast of northern South America.

These warm surface waters deepen the thermocline, the level of ocean depth that separates warm surface water from the colder water below. During an El Niño event, the thermocline can dip as far as 152 meters (500 feet).

This thick layer of warm water does not allow normal upwelling to occur. Without an upwelling of nutrient-rich cold water, the euphotic zone of the eastern Pacific can no longer support its normally productive coastal ecosystem. Fish populations die or migrate. El Niño has a devastating impact on Ecuadorian and Peruvian economies.

El Niño also produces widespread and sometimes severe changes in the climate. Convection above warmer surface waters bring increased precipitation. Rainfall increases drastically in Ecuador and northern Peru, contributing to coastal flooding and erosion. Rains and floods may destroy homes, schools, hospitals, and businesses. They also limit transportation and destroy crops.

As El Niño brings rain to South America, it brings droughts to Indonesia and Australia. These droughts threaten the region's water supplies, as reservoirs dry and rivers carry less water. Agriculture, which depends on water for irrigation, is threatened.

Stronger El Niño events also disrupt global atmospheric circulation. Global atmospheric circulation is the large-scale movement of air that helps distribute thermal energy (heat) across the surface of Earth. The eastward movement of oceanic and atmospheric heat sources cause unusually severe winter weather at the higher latitudes of North and South America. Regions as far north as the U.S. states of California and Washington may experience longer, colder winters because of El Niño.

El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were the most intense of the 20th century. During the 1982-83 event, sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific were 7.8-12.8° C (9-18° F) above normal. These strong temperature increases caused severe climatic changes: Australia experienced harsh drought conditions; typhoons occurred in Tahiti; and record rainfall and flooding hit central Chile. The west coast of North America was unusually stormy during the winter season, and fish catches were dramatically reduced from Chile to the U.S. state of Alaska.

The El Niño event of 1997-98 was the first El Niño event to be scientifically monitored from beginning to end. The 1997-98 event produced drought conditions in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Peru experienced very heavy rains and severe flooding. In the United States, increased winter rainfall hit California, while the Midwest experienced record-breaking warm temperatures during a period known as "the year without a winter."

El Niño-related disruption of global atmospheric circulation extends beyond Pacific Rim nations. Strong El Niño events contribute to weaker monsoons in India and Southeast Asia. ENSO has even contributed to increased rainfall during the rainy season in sub-Saharan Africa.

Diseases thrive in communities devastated by natural hazards such as flood or drought. El Niño-related flooding is associated with increases in cholera, dengue, and malaria in some parts of the world, while drought can lead to wildfires that produce respiratory problems.

'Flavors' of El Niño

Variations of El Niño are referred to as "flavors." The transition period of an El Niño event, for instance, is called a "Trans Niño." Trans Niño events occur at the onset and closing of an El Niño event. Trans Niño events often include increased tornado activity in the American Midwest.

Another "flavor" of El Niño is the El Niño Modoki, or Modoki Niño. Modoki is a Japanese word meaning "similar, but different." Modoki Niño, also called the Central Pacific Niño, is characterized by changes in sea-surface temperatures in the central, not eastern, Pacific. Some Modoki Niño events are distinct from traditional El Niño events, such as increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Many meteorologists are critical of the Modoki Niño, calling for more climate models to study the proposed phenomenon.
Monitoring El Niño
Scientists, governments, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) collect data about El Niño using a number of technologies. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), for instance, operates a network of scientific buoys. These buoys measure ocean and air temperatures, currents, winds, and humidity. The buoys are located at about 70 locations in the southern Pacific Ocean, from the Galapagos Islands to Australia.

These buoys transmit data daily to researchers and forecasters around the world. Using data from the buoys, along with visual imagery they receive from satellite imagery, scientists are able to more accurately predict El Niño and visualize its development and impact around the globe.

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El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

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The El Niño forecast in fall of 2014 fizzled because storms and trade winds never followed suit, and the feedbacks between atmosphere and ocean failed to develop.

Credit: Jet Propulsion Laboratory

El Niño is a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean with a global impact on weather patterns.

The cycle begins when warm water in the western tropical Pacific Ocean shifts eastward along the equator toward the coast of South America. Normally, this warm water pools near Indonesia and the Philippines. During an El Niño, the Pacific's warmest surface waters sit offshore of northwestern South America.

Forecasters declare an official El Niño when they see both ocean temperatures and rainfall from storms veer to the east. Experts also look for prevailing trade winds to weaken and even reverse direction during the El Niño climate phenomenon. These changes set up a feedback loop between the atmosphere and the ocean that boosts El Niño conditions. The El Niño forecast for 2015 is expected to be one of the strongest on record, according to Mike Halpert, the deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"We don't want to see just the warming in the ocean. We want to see the atmosphere above the ocean respond to the changes," said Michelle L'Heureux, a climate scientist and lead for the El Niño forecasting team at the Climate Prediction Center.

The location of tropical storms shifts eastward during an El Niño because atmospheric moisture is fuel for thunderstorms, and the greatest amount of evaporation takes place above the ocean's warmest water.

There is also an opposite of an El Niño, called La Niña. This refers to times when waters of the tropical eastern Pacific are colder than normal and trade winds blow more strongly than usual.

Collectively, El Niño and La Niña are parts of an oscillation in the ocean-atmosphere system called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO cycle, which also has a neutral phase.

Scientists do not yet understand in detail what triggers an El Niño cycle. Not all El Niños are the same, nor do the atmosphere and ocean always follow the same patterns from one El Niño to another.

"There isn't one big cause, which is one of the reasons why we can't predict this thing perfectly," L'Heureux said. "There is some predictability in the common features that arise with El Nino, which is why we can make forecasts of it. But it won't be exactly the same every time."

To forecast an El Niño, scientists monitor temperatures in the upper 656 feet (200 meters) of the ocean. They are watching for the telltale temperature shift from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific. For example, in spring 2014, a very strong warm water swell called a "Kelvin wave" crossed the Pacific, leading some forecasters to predict a powerful El Niño for winter 2014. However, their forecast fizzled by fall because storms and trade winds never followed suit, and the feedbacks between atmosphere and ocean failed to develop.

"El Niños are never inevitable," L'Heureux said.

El Niños occur every three to five years but may come as frequently as every two years or as rarely as every seven years. Typically, El Niños occur more frequently than La Niñas. Each event usually lasts nine to 12 months. They often begin to form in spring, reach peak strength between December and January, and then decay by May of the following year.

Their strength can vary considerably between cycles. One of the strongest in recent decades was the El Niño that developed the winter of 1997-98. "Everyone associates the word El Niño with that event, but that was a rare, once-in-a-century event," notes L'Heureux.

El Niño was originally named El Niño de Navidad by Peruvian fishermen in the 1600s. This name was used for the tendency of the phenomenon to arrive around Christmas. Climate records of El Niño go back millions of years, with evidence of the cycle found in ice cores, deep sea muds, coral, caves and tree rings.

In normal, non-El Niño conditions, trade winds blow toward the west across the tropical Pacific, away from South America. These winds pile up warm surface water in the west Pacific, so that the sea surface is about 1 to 2 feet (0.3 m to 0.6 m) higher offshore Indonesia than across the Pacific, offshore Ecuador.

The sea-surface temperature is also about 14 degrees Fahrenheit (8 degrees Celsius) warmer in the west. Cooler ocean temperatures dominate offshore northwest South America, due to an upwelling of cold water from deeper levels. This nutrient-rich cold water supports diverse marine ecosystems and major fisheries.

During an El Niño, the trade winds weaken in the central and western Pacific. Surface water temperatures off South America warm up, because there is less upwelling of the cold water from below to cool the surface. The clouds and rainstorms associated with warm ocean waters also shift toward the east. The warm waters release so much energy into the atmosphere that weather changes all over the planet.

The warmer waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean have important effects on the world's weather. The greatest impacts are generally not felt until winter or spring over the Northern Hemisphere, L'Heureux said. The 1982-83 El Niño is estimated to have caused more than $10 billion in weather-related damage worldwide. [ How El Niño Causes Wild Weather All Over the Globe]

An El Niño creates stronger wind-shear and more-stable air over the Atlantic, which makes it harder for hurricanes to form. However, the warmer-than-average ocean temperatures boost eastern Pacific hurricanes, contributing to more-active tropical storm seasons.

Strong El Niños are also associated with above-average precipitation in the southern tier of the United States from California to the Atlantic coast. The cloudier weather typically causes below-average winter temperatures for those states, while temperatures tilt warmer-than-average in the northern tier of the United States. Rainfall is often below average in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and the Pacific Northwest during an El Niño.

Record rainfall often strikes Peru, Chile and Ecuador during an El Niño year. Fish catches offshore South America are typically lower than normal because the marine life migrates north and south, following colder water.

El Niño also affects precipitation in other areas, including Indonesia and northeastern South America, which tend toward drier-than-normal conditions. Temperatures in Australia and Southeast Asia run hotter than average. El Niño-caused drought can be widespread, affecting southern Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, the Pacific Islands and the Canadian prairies.

Follow Becky Oskin @beckyoskin. Follow LiveScience @livescience, Facebook & Google+.

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El Niño is a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean with a global impact on weather patterns. The cycle begins when warm water in the western tropical Pacific Ocean shifts eastward along the equator toward the coast of South America. Normally, this warm water pools near Indonesia and the Philippines.

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Background
Impact on Cereal Production and Markets
Impact on Other Crops
Impact on Livestock and Products
Impact on Fisheries Chart of El Niño impacts
Impact on Forestry
The Role of FAO in Mitigating the Impact of El Niño
BACKGROUND
El Niño is the name given to the occasional warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea-surface winds blow from east to west towards the equator and pile warm water in the upper ocean of the western tropical Pacific near Indonesia and the Australian continent. As a result of this warm pool of water, the atmosphere is heated and conditions favourable for precipitation occur there. A weakening of the winds is the first sign that an El Niño event is underway. This is accompanied by the accumulation of unusually warm water off the coast of Ecuador and Peru with a peak around Christmas season. The fishermen who first observed it named it "El Niño" ("the Christ Child"). La Niña refers to the "cold" equivalent of El Niño.

Since early March 1997 significant warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean has been observed and recognized as the beginning of an El Niño phenomenon. Such a phenomenon is known to occur every 2 to 7 years, with varying degrees of intensity and duration. It usually peaks around late December. An El Niño is often associated with important subsequent changes in temperatures and precipitation in several parts of the globe, which may affect agriculture and water resources either positively or negatively. The change in sea surface temperatures also affects natural conditions for marine ecosystems.

The last two El Niños occurred in 1982/83, which caused severe flooding and extensive weather-related damage in Latin America and drought in parts of Asia, and in 1991/92, which resulted in a severe drought in Southern Africa. This year's El Niño is regarded by various experts as one of the most severe this century with record Pacific surface temperatures being observed. Various climate agencies around the world also indicate that the phenomenon could continue throughout 1997 and possibly extend into 1998. The worst effects of El Niño are expected to be felt over the next few months and well into 1998.

No precise quantitative association between the occurrence of El Niño and changes in agricultural production have been established and it is difficult to forecast precisely the impact of El Niño in specific areas. In recent months FAO has been closely monitoring weather anomalies and assessing possible effects these may have on agricultural production in various parts of the world in order to warn about adverse situations developing and to enable preventive action.

IMPACT ON CEREAL PRODUCTION AND MARKETS

a) Production

At the global level, cereal production in 1997 is expected to be little affected by the El Niño phenomenon, despite some reduced harvests due to adverse El Niño-related weather in several countries along the equatorial belt as well as in the southern hemisphere. However, as the most intense impact of El Niño is expected from December, greatest concern is over the threat that El Niño may pose to the crops to be planted in the coming months for harvest in 1998.

Latin America is especially prone to the effects of the El Niño phenomenon. In 1982/83 El Niño resulted in severe drought and flood damage in several countries. This year, first season crops have been affected by drought in most Central American and some Caribbean countries. On average, losses are estimated at about 15 percent compared to last year's average crops, but they have been more severe locally. In South America, wheat planting in the southern areas was affected by a wetter than normal winter season and a significant reduction in planted area is reported in Argentina and Brazil. Wheat crop yields will, however, be largely determined by the intensity of El Niño related rains in the coming months. With respect to coarse grains, sowing of the crops for harvest in 1998 is underway. Plantings in the main producing countries are expected to drop from last year's near record levels, but as for wheat, the final outcome will depend greatly upon the weather in the coming months.

CLIMATIC ANOMALIES USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO EVENTS

Note: The top chart covers likely impacts of El Niño in the October to March period and the bottom chart covers impacts during April to September. D indicates drier conditions than normal, R stands for more rain than normal, and W indicates abnormally warm periods.The figure is based on two illustrations taken from the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory World Wide Web El Niño Theme Page.

In Asia, possible El Niño related effects over the past months include serious droughts in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand - countries known to be susceptible to the phenomenon. Other serious weather anomalies in the region, unrelated to El Niño, include severe drought in northeast China and Korea, D.P.R. and floods in Pakistan. These adverse weather conditions have affected some 1997 coarse grain crops and the rice crops which have still to be harvested in the coming weeks. However, despite some anticipated localized cereal shortfalls, output in 1997 for the region as a whole will still be about average. The more intense impact of the current El Niño is generally expected to occur between December 1997 and March 1998. In many countries of the region, winter wheat planting for the 1998 harvest will commence soon. In some countries, the adverse weather conditions could lead to a delay in rice planting operations resulting in a switch to early maturing but lower yielding varieties. Preliminary indications point towards reduced rice acreage in some of the southern hemisphere countries. As for the other areas susceptible to the weather-related impacts of El Niño, prospects will depend largely on weather conditions in the coming months.

In southern Africa, the outlook for the 1997 wheat crop currently being harvested is favourable. However, there is considerable concern over the possible adverse impact of El Niño on the 1998 coarse grain crop. Experts predict a strong possibility of poor rainfall for the planting season which is soon to start. Accordingly, most governments have prepared comprehensive contingency plans for mitigating the impact of a possible drought. The sub-region suffered a serious El Niño related drought in 1991/92.

b) Cereal markets

No major effects are expected from El Niño on the 1997 coarse grain crops. However, given the low level of global coarse grains stocks, markets for these grains, particularly maize, would be vulnerable if the anticipated adverse impacts of the El Niño on next year's crops, especially in the southern hemisphere, were to materialize. The current situation is markedly different from that during the previous major El Niño event in 1982/83 in terms of the levels of supplies and prices. The 1982 coarse grain crops were a record and carryover stocks were at very high levels, i.e. at 28 percent of utilization at the end of the season. This situation provided a cushion for the sharp reduction in the 1983 output and helped containing the sharp rise in prices during the year. By contrast, next year's ending stocks are forecast to be very low, especially for maize, and represent only 12 percent of utilization. Thus, in view of the current tight market situation, the possibility of reduced course grains output in 1998 in important producing regions as a result of El Niño is cause for concern.

Although the 1997 wheat production has been mostly unaffected by El Niño, the wheat market has been reacting nervously to weather reports and wheat prices have remained strong in recent weeks. This is mainly because of the speculative longer-term interest in wheat which continues to lend support to the market. While current indications do not support a direct El Niño-induced global wheat production shortfall scenario for next year, possible indirect effects can not be ruled out. Although the element most likely supporting wheat price in 1998/99 will again be the low level of global stocks, possible spillovers from the other commodity markets would also lend support to firmer wheat prices.

Reports about the possible impacts of El Niño have not greatly affected rice trade thus far in 1997 and prices are currently at their seasonal lows. However, until the potential effects to the 1998 production become clearer, trader speculation could drive prices up during the first part of 1998. Prices in the remainder of 1998 will largely depend on crop prospects in the major exporting and importing countries. In addition, rice prices may receive support from the other related commodity markets, depending on the reaction of those markets to the El Niño phenomenon.

IMPACT ON OTHER CROPS

World cassava production in 1997 has not been greatly affected by El Niño. This is because cassava adapts better than other crops to poor soils in marginal lands, to water stress and adverse climatic conditions and with its deep root system can tolerate dry weather for a longer period. Should, however, drought conditions persist in 1998, production in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean could be adversely affected, leading to upward pressure on prices of cassava and its products. The most significant and visible effect of El Niño as far as the oil crops, oils and meals sectors are concerned is the sharp decline of south American fishmeal production and global export availabilities, which combined with already low levels of stocks in exporting countries, are expected to lead to firm prices for fishmeal and other high-protein meals in 1998. Moreover, lower-than-average rainfall in south east Asia is expected to reduce coconut and palm yields, and, hence, production of palm oil and lauric oils (coconut and palm kernel) during 1998, possibly leading to higher and more volatile prices for these products. The market for coconut oil is expected to be particularly affected, because of the already higher prices observed over the past two seasons. Although production if certain oilseeds in some of the countries in these two regions may also be affected, not significant effects are expected overall for the oilseeds market in the United States and Europe.

The possible impact of El Niño for coffee will result primarily from the effects of drought on the Asian crop for harvest next April and excess rainfall on the Brazilian crop which has already fueled a rise in market prices for high quality coffee. Given the already tight stock situation for cocoa, should the effect of El Niño be similar to that of 1982/83, the global cocoa shortage would become more severe, resulting in considerable price increases. No significant impact is expected on the major tea producers or exporters. The current tight supply is due to drought (unrelated to El Niño) in Kenya and Sri Lanka, and the late start of harvesting in India due to a cold spell.

For sugar, prices in 1997/98 to date have remained steady within their normal trading range but with a tendency to rise due to prospects for an unfavourable Asian crop, in some cases because of adverse weather conditions associated with El Niño. However, prices are not expected to rise sharply in 1997/98, as stocks are adequate at present. However, should stocks be drawn down more than currently anticipated and the effects of El Niño linger into the 1998/99 production season, prices can be expected to increase beyond their recent trading range.

There is little concern at the present time over the outlook for export bananas, but production of bananas and plantains for local consumption could be adversely affected by prolonged drought. Other tropical fruits for export are unlikely to be affected as this year's crops are already largely harvested. Any effects from El Niño would likely be observed in next year's crops. As stocks of processed citrus are large it is unlikely that possible damage to orange production in Brazil would have much of an effect on prices at this time. Some impact on the price of grapes and other horticultural products could occur should El Niño lead to problems with the California crops or with the supply of fruit and vegetables from Chile and other suppliers of off-season products to Northern Hemisphere markets.

Global supplies of cotton and jute do not appear likely to be affected, while production of some hard fibres may be expected to decline in the event of continued drought in some southern hemisphere countries. Overall it is not expected that rubber will be greatly affected.

IMPACT ON LIVESTOCK AND PRODUCTS

El Niño could bring about abnormal drought conditions in some important southern hemisphere livestock producing countries. Pasture and range conditions could deteriorate as a consequence. Delayed or scarce rainfall would boost slaughtering, especially of large ruminants which depend on pasture and range land, with increased meat output in the short-run depressing producer prices. As a result, production of hides and skins could expand. Subsequently, as pasture and range conditions recover, livestock offtake will decline as stock numbers are allowed to build up again. Poultry and pig meat production will be affected primarily by developments in feed prices.

IMPACT ON FISHERIES

Since the mechanism underlying El Niño episodes resides in the climatic system of the tropical Pacific Ocean, some of the most striking ecological impacts involve the ecosystems of this particular ocean region. In addition, oceanic geophysical wave phenomena promote propagation of the anomalous conditions toward the eastern boundary of the ocean and then poleward along the continental boundary regions of both the northern and southern hemispheres.

The eastern Pacific Region

Being situated at the eastern end of the "equatorial wave guide" the Peru Current region located off Peru and Ecuador receives the full force of El Niño impacts. The area off the western South America is one of the major upwelling regions of the world, producing 12 to 20 percent of the world total fish landings. In such upwelling regions, nutrient-rich deep waters are brought to the illuminated surface layers (i.e. upwelled) where they are available to support photosynthesis, and thus large fish populations. The Peruvian anchoveta was, prior to a major stock collapse in conjunction with the El Niño of 1972-73, by far the largest fish harvest, with peak annual catches of over 12 million metric tons. The stock was reduced further, to its lowest level on record in conjunction with the El Niño of 1982-83, and has been recovering since, until the development of the current El Niño.

Of the various predictions that can be made about the impact on fish availabilities of the current El Niño, perhaps the most "confident" may be that the enormously important Peruvian anchoveta stock will suffer severely and may take years to recover. Other fish stocks distributed throughout the broader eastern Pacific area will also be adversely affected. There will, however, also be examples of positive impacts, i.e. the expansion in scallop fishery off Peru in following seasons.

Other Areas of the World

Through atmospheric teleconnections there will be impacts on fish populations outside of the eastern Pacific. For example, it is thought that the milder 1991 El Niño may have had strong detrimental effects on the fisheries and marine ecosystem off Namibia. However, as distance from the Pacific increases, the linkages become less clear, and this makes the task of separating the effects of El Niño from effects of fishing and from non-El Niño-related environmental effects more difficult. In general, unusual weather patterns may be expected in nearly all regions of the world and these may affect the complex life cycle processes of fishery resource species.

IMPACT ON FORESTRY

The extensive fire damage in Indonesia as a result of El Niño and the associated impacts in terms of smoke and haze, not only in Indonesia but in neighbouring countries as well, provide a strong and dramatic justification for an analysis of the magnitude of the relationship between El Niño and forestry. The implications need to be assessed and lessons learned in terms of mitigating impacts in the future to the forest resources of Indonesia and of other countries affected by El Niño.

Given the relatively long growing season of most forest resources, the climate change impacts of El Niño on trees tend to be less dramatic than on annual agricultural crops. The greatest El Niño-related threat to trees and forests is that of fire - the current situation in Indonesia is a dramatic example. This can and does result in enormous losses in terms of resources, products, environmental quality and human life. Short term climatic changes may also affect forest regeneration, both spontaneous and that assisted by man. Forest resources also comprise a vast array of non-wood forest products - of critical importance to the food supplies of local people and to their economies - and these may suffer from the El Niño. Moreover, agroforestry systems in which trees and agricultural crops are raised in symbiosis may be affected likewise.

Forestry contributes to food security in three main ways, through the direct provision of food, through the protection of the agricultural base for food production and through the generation of employment and income. With regard to the direct provision of food, the greatest immediate impact of El Niño will likely be on the many non-wood forest foods, including nuts, tree flowers and honey, that serve as supplementary and emergency sources of nourishment. The supply of many of these products may be adversely affected by El Niño. If areas affected by El Niño are exposed to fire, the agricultural crop area may be re-usable after a single season. But if the soil and water protection provided by forests is destroyed, agricultural land may permanently lose its productivity. Another grave risk associated with El Niño is a local shortage, in areas affected by fire, of the forest fuels that are fundamental for the cooking and heating energy of most rural populations. Similarly, if forest resources are destroyed, they will no longer be able to make the vital contribution to income and employment that they currently do.

THE ROLE OF FAO IN MITIGATING THE IMPACT OF EL NIÑO

FAO has been, and continues to be, actively involved in helping countries to prepare for and respond to the adverse impact of El Niño.

Long-term Prevention

FAO has assisted countries in implementing long-term preventive measures against drought and flood-related events which now facilitate preparedness and response of countries affected by El Niño. Examples of such measures promoted by FAO include:

support to well construction and small-scale irrigation development programmes in Southern Africa and Central America;

development of drought and cyclone-resistant cropping patterns and farming and fishing practices for South Asia, the Sahel, eastern and southern Africa and the Caribbean;

support for the preparation of a disaster preparedness strategy for the member countries of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development in Eastern Africa and the Horn;

the establishment of early warning systems for forestry, provision of information and direct assistance to member countries on appropriate forestry policy and planning, forest management and land use decision making, environmentally sound logging, fire control, etc.;

support to flood prevention through integrated watershed development programmes in eroded, mountainous regions, and

support for the design and management of strategic food security reserves.

As regards long-term preventive measures in the fishery sector, FAO has been active in building international awareness on the environmentally-induced fluctuations of fish stocks and fisheries that depend on them. Member States are advised to take a precautionary approach in their fisheries management and development plans when dealing with fish stocks known to be subject to large environmentally-induced fluctuations, such as those caused by the El Niño phenomenon in the eastern tropical Pacific and, to a lesser extent, also elsewhere.
Early Warning and Forecasting

Since March 1997 FAO has intensified the monitoring of weather developments and crop prospects in all parts of the world through its Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). The System has issued two reports on the impact of El Niño on crop production in Latin America and Asia. Current focus is on southern Africa where the 1997/98 growing season has just started. GIEWS has discussed with the WFP the possibility of launching advance emergency operations to be jointly approved by the Director-General (FAO) and the Executive Director (WFP) and of fielding FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions to southern Africa in April/May 1998, if drought conditions develop. The Systems assessments provide a lead in initiating agricultural rehabilitation activities in affected countries.

Early Rehabilitation

In the last six months, FAO has made arrangements for assessing the essential agricultural inputs needed to restore production in four countries adversely affected by El Niño. An appeal for financial assistance to implement emergency relief, short term rehabilitation and preparedness interventions will be distributed to the international donor community. With regard to the situation in Indonesia, FAO made an official offer of assistance to the Indonesian Ministry of Forestry on 26 September. In the past, FAO has executed forestry projects in Indonesia in forest fire policy, fire suppression, education and extension.

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food and agriculture organization of the united nations

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Impact of El Niño on Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

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Background Impact on Cereal Production and Markets Impact on Other Crops Impact on Livestock and Products Impact on Fisheries Chart of El Niño impacts Impact on Forestry The Role of FAO in Mitigating the Impact of El Niño BACKGROUND El Niño is the name given to the occasional warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

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El Nino is a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean with on average five year intervals. It is characterized by variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean - warming or cooling known as El Nino and La Nina respectively - and air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific - the Southern Oscillation.

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It looks like we're in for a strong, lengthy El Niño this year.

Warmer-than-usual water in parts of the Pacific Ocean indicates that a developing El Niño is intensifying and might become one of the strongest on record. And National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists think the weather phenomenon probably will continue through the winter of 2015-16, and into the spring of 2016.

El Niños have been occurring at least since the end of the last Ice Age about 10,000 years ago. But scientists have only been able to effectively monitor the events since the advent of weather satellites. In that time, there have only been two strong El Niños-one in 1982-83 and another in 1997-98.

Given the lack of past data, precise predictions can be difficult. And it's too early to tell whether this El Niño will set any records. But meteorologists say the list of possible effects is unsettling and includes torrential rainfall and flooding in some places, drought in other areas, powerful hurricanes in the Pacific, and winter tornadoes in Florida and the U.S. Southeast.

El Niño has already made this summer a stormy one in the Pacific. Eight tropical storms have formed since mid-May, and three of those have become very powerful hurricanes with winds exceeding 130 miles per hour (209 kilometers per hour).

The warmer water usually fuels powerful winter thunderstorms in North America and South America. So the developing El Niño could bring badly needed rain to California later this year. But that carries a risk. The 1982-83 event caused flooding in California and the southern U.S., and the 1997-98 El Niño caused deadly flooding in Peru and Ecuador.

Ecuador and northern Peru also saw heavy rains in 1982-83. The rain spurred plant growth, which attracted swarms of grasshoppers. That was followed by a surge in toad and bird populations. The wetness caused a huge increase in mosquitoes and, subsequently, an uptick in malaria.

But it's not all storms. The 1997-98 El Niño led to a severe drought in Indonesia, along with unusually high temperatures. Huge forest fires there burned an area larger than the state of Indiana, says Jeff Masters, meteorological director for the website Weather Underground.

If there's a silver lining to a powerful El Niño, it's that the activity usually increases upper-level winds over the Atlantic Ocean. This makes it much more difficult for hurricanes to form in the Atlantic. So far this summer, the Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet.

Concern for Fish

A powerful El Niño could affect fish and wildlife. When the warming waters in the equatorial Pacific set an El Niño into motion, the prevailing east-to-west winds relax and even reverse. Warm water then moves eastward over the ocean.

The warmer water disrupts the normal upwelling of nutrients from cooler depths, and that "messes up the food chain in the ocean," says meteorologist Stanley Goldenberg at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division in Miami. "It tends to almost wipe out anchovy fishing. That's not a big deal to people who don't like anchovies on their pizza, but anchovies also provide the fish meal that is used to feed livestock. So it has a ripple effect."

Anchovies also are a major food source for many other fish, seabirds and marine mammals.

This year, there's concern that unusually warm water off the Peruvian coast has already cut off the flow of nutrients. That will diminish the catch of commercial fishermen, sending a shock through Peru's economy. And Peruvian officials have declared a state of emergency in expectation of heavy rainfall and flooding this winter, Weather Underground's Masters says.

The reversal of prevailing winds can also cause sea levels to rise in the eastern Pacific and drop elsewhere. During the 1982-83 El Niño, the rise caused seabirds on Christmas Island to abandon their young. Fur seals and sea lions died, and fish from Chile to British Columbia left in search of more temperate waters.

The drop can expose the tops of coral reefs. Most of the reefs around the Galapagos Islands were killed during the 1982-83 El Niño.

Officials in Hawaii are very worried that the current El Niño could cause a massive die-off of coral there.

More to Study

Scientists aren't sure whether human-induced climate change will be a factor in the developing El Niño. "That's a big question," says Neal Dorst, a meteorologist at the Hurricane Research Division. "We don't have a long enough record of El Niños."

Nor do they know whether the global sea level rise might become a factor.

Masters says climate change "could lead to some surprising effects," but it's hard to predict what those effects might be, or even if they will occur.

Water temperatures off the coast of California and Mexico are the warmest on record, Masters says, and that eventually could produce powerful rainstorms that will cause flooding worse than that seen during earlier El Niños. And a warmer winter could reduce snowfall in the Sierra Mountains, meaning there would be less snowpack during the spring melt that normally provides irrigation and drinking water.

Still, the El Niño's effects will end eventually.

"It is stressful on animals and plants," said Dorst. "It's altering their ecological conditions, the warmth of the water and the amount of rain. But it's short-lived. Things go back to normal conditions, and they recover."

And when it's over, scientists will have a third strong El Niño to help improve their predictions for the fourth.
North Carolina author Willie Drye's latest book, For Sale-American Paradise, will be published October 1 by Lyons Press.

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El Niño Could Mean Extreme Weather, Fewer Anchovies

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It looks like we're in for a strong, lengthy El Niño this year. Warmer-than-usual water in parts of the Pacific Ocean indicates that a developing El Niño is intensifying and might become one of the strongest on record.

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Economic Consequences of El Niño: and the influence on prices worldwide

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A reduction of the fish population reduces the amount of fishmeal produced and exported (by local industry) to other countries for feeding poultry and livestock. If the world's fishmeal supply decreases, more expensive alternative feed sources must be used, resulting in an increase in poultry prices worldwide.

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BluePlanet - GEOG- 9-10- Oceanography- The general impacts of La Nina

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BluePlanet is a Water and Environmental Education website for High School students. Information on the website links directly to the NSW Science, Geography, Agriculture and Marine Studies syllabuses. Resources include local case studies, games, and factsheets.

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La Niña, the cooler sibling of El Niño, is here.

The La Niña climate pattern - a natural cycle marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the central Pacific Ocean - is one of the main drivers of weather in the U.S. and around the world, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring.

Federal government forecasters announced La Niña's formation Thursday. The Climate Prediction Center says this year's La Niña (translated from Spanish as "little girl") is on the weak side, but it should still continue through the winter.

This is the second consecutive La Niña winter. Last year's episode was unusually brief, forming in November and gone by February.

A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according to the prediction center. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic also tend to see warmer-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter.

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More: Winter weather forecast: Warm, dry for southern U.S.; snowy and cold in the Northwest, Great Lakes

New England and the Upper Midwest into New York tend to see colder-than-average temperatures, the Weather Channel said.

Because La Niña shifts storm tracks, it often brings more snow to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. "Typically La Niña is not a big snow year in the mid-Atlantic," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. "You have a better chance up in New England."

Sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, as compared to average. Blue areas are cooler-than-average, while orange areas are warmer-than average. La Niñ a is the blue area that stretches west of South America. (Photo: Climate.gov)

Texas A&M University agricultural economist Bruce McCarl said La Niña years are often bad for agriculture in Texas and the surrounding region. U.S. production of most crops - except corn - generally goes down in La Niña years, according to research by McCarl.

Globally, La Niña often brings heavy rainfall to Indonesia, the Philippines, northern Australia and southern Africa.

The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a see-saw dance of warmer and cooler seawater in the central Pacific Ocean.
Contributing: Associated Press
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La Niña is here. What does that mean for our winter?

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CLOSE La Niña, the cooler sibling of El Niño, is here. The La Niña climate pattern - a natural cycle marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the central Pacific Ocean - is one of the main drivers of weather in the U.S. and around the world, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring.

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If you've ever found it hard to understand why Australia's swings between drought and floods, help is at hand, thanks to cartoonist John Shakespeare and Science Editor Nicky Phillips.

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What is El Nino and La Nina? How are they  formed? Explanation and diagrams.

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Detailed explanation of how El Nino and La Nina works. I use both an animation and also hand drawn notes to help explain the process. This video is perfect for GCSE, AS/A Level and IB DP Geographers to help them in their notes and examinations.

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Comparing El Nino and La Nina
You must use a minimum of 5 of these sources to conduct research to answer your Guiding Question. This should be cited in your Evidence- Example: According to ______, El Nino impacts N. USA _____________.
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