# data[].attributes.body
Online education is a trend that has been gaining in prominence over the past few decades and shows no signs of slowing down. With more students approaching college from a non-traditional status, that requires the use of non-traditional methods such as online education. For students that have circumstances that force them to have to adapt their learning to their current situation, online education is a way for them to get around that and still be able to pursue their dream. The biggest hindrance for the future of online education is the failure to adapt. This means student affairs professionals that believe that their class can be taught the same way online as it is in class, which is not true. Not only are there advantages and disadvantages to online education in terms of curriculum, but the students usually require different learning methods. This field can be a great boon for higher education but only if properly adapted.

# data[].attributes.body
Professors physically being on campus even when they don't need to.

Moon, P.A. (2017). Coming to campus to teach online. Inside Higher Ed. Retrieved from        https://www.insidehighered.com/views/2017/10/03/why-online-professors-should-be-campus-essay

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
In a recent blog in Inside Higher Ed, Joshua Kim explored the value of telecommuting, rightly suggesting that the proven success of online education means that one need not be physically present to do a job well. "What we've learned from online education," he wrote, "is that with a combination of thought, investment and a willingness to make data-driven continuous improvements, distance is not a barrier to quality." And he closed by asking, "Should the champions of online learning also be advocating for telecommuting?"

It is absolutely the case that teaching remotely and doing it well is possible, particularly if professors accept that teaching online requires the mastery of new skills, an awareness of online pedagogies and best practices, a commitment to valuing those in digital spaces as much as we value those physically in front of us, and, in some cases more time. And Kim is right to imagine that using the "methods and tools" of online education can help us improve productivity in workplaces that accommodate telecommuters. Certainly, tools like Slack and the Google suite have enabled synchronous collaboration among remotely situated parties.

But while I see a lot of logic and value in telecommuting, I want to make a case for having online educators, in particular, physically present on campuses. My motivation and reasoning stem not from a sense that physical presence is crucial to student learning (it isn't), but from my understanding of the political landscape of academic environments.

In many academic departments, online education continues be the redheaded stepchild of higher education. In faculty meetings and curriculum committees, it remains an afterthought, even among faculty members who are not openly hostile to it.

Let me offer an example. Our faculty recently redesigned one of our undergraduate majors, creating a couple of new foundational courses that we hope will better prepare our majors for success in upper-level classes. Beautifully conceived, the new curriculum effectively pulls our major into the 21st century. After voting to approve the redesigned curriculum, the faculty organized into subcommittees that took up the task of framing out syllabi for each of the new courses. Despite the fact that our department now serves more majors online in 7.5-week courses than we serve face-to-face majors in 15-week courses, the committee developed a master syllabus for a 15-week course. Only after a few online faculty members raised questions did the committee sit down to develop a 7.5-week version of the course. Since faculty members had already invested so much time and effort into developing the 15-week course, the development process for the 7.5-week course was almost unavoidably a reductive rather than a creative one.

Why did this happen? One reason is that non-online educators are disproportionately represented in faculty meeting and on faculty committees. That's because, in many departments, contingent faculty members are central to online programming. Yet because they often work remotely, few contingent faculty members regularly attend faculty meetings, despite the fact that, in our department, full-time contingent faculty enjoy voting privileges on most matters.

Outside of faculty meetings, fewer contingent faculty members bump into their tenure-track colleagues in the breakroom, and fewer are around for spur-of-the-moment lunch dates -- meaning that casual conversations about teaching and learning tend to universalize the experiences of face-to-face teachers and learners. By virtue of their primarily face-to-face teaching load, the faculty members who established the subcommittees for our new major classes were habituated to thinking in terms of 15-week semesters and serving traditional (18- to 22-year-old, residential) students.

In short, the physical absence of contingent faculty from the halls of our department helps keep online education marginalized in our curricular and policymaking discussions. And that's too bad because often it is our online teaching faculty who are the most pedagogically creative and most aware of the needs of non-traditional students.

Despite my contingent status, I come to campus daily because I like my work and value the formal and informal interactions I have with my faculty and staff colleagues. To be sure, technology enables me to communicate with my colleagues remotely if need be, which I do when I'm at conferences or even when I don't want to walk down the hall to ask someone a question.

But my physical presence on campus provides me with insight into the range of issues and challenges -- many of them subtle -- that our department faces, and it means that I am available to serve when the need arises unexpectedly. I bring my identity as an online expert to the table in each and every conversation I have, whether that be in faculty meeting or when I grab coffee with a colleague in an effort to putt off grading for 15 more minutes. My voice in those conversations helps chip away at an educational hierarchy that prioritizes traditional methods and campus-based students.

There are a host of reasons why online educators -- particularly full-time contingent faculty members -- should resist the lure of full-time telecommuting. If we hope to build an educational environment that truly values online spaces and online learners -- not to mention non-tenure track faculty members -- we need to make ourselves impossible to ignore. The best way we can do that is to maintain both an intellectual and physical presence in our academic communities.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Why online professors should be on campus (essay)

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
In a recent blog in Inside Higher Ed, Joshua Kim explored the value of telecommuting, rightly suggesting that the proven success of online education means that one need not be physically present to do a job well.

# data[].attributes.body
Hickey, R. (2014). The history of online education.  Peterson's, a Nelnet Company. Retrieved from https://www.petersons.com/college-search/online-education-history.aspx

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Online education is nothing new. Okay, the technology is relatively new. However, the concept is over 170 years old and has its origins in a correspondence course offered in Great Britain where the instructor sent lessons and received students' completed assignments by mail. Distance learning was born, and today's online courses are modern versions of their humble predecessors.

Online education is nothing new. Okay, the technology is relatively new. However, the concept is over 170 years old and has its origins in a correspondence course offered in Great Britain where the instructor sent lessons and received students' completed assignments by mail. Distance learning was born, and today's online courses are modern versions of their humble predecessors. Online education overcomes the biggest drawback of correspondence courses, mail transit time, and allows students to interact not only with the instructor but the other students in the class in real time.

How did this all get started?
1960 - The University of Illinois
While the Internet would not be created by the Department of Defense for another nine years, the University of Illinois created an Intranet for its students in 1960. It was a system of linked computer terminals where students could access course materials as well as listen to recorded lectures.

This would evolve into PLATO (Programmed Logic for Automatic Teaching Operations). At its height, PLATO operated on thousands of terminals across the globe. More interestingly, PLATO would be used to create many of the concepts of social networking that we know today: message boards, chat rooms, screen sharing, and even MMORPGs ( source).
1979 - Lemonade Stand
Arguably the first massively played educational computer game, Lemonade Stand was released in 1979 for Apple II, and the game was included with Apple software packages throughout the 80s. The concept was simple, create a successful lemonade stand, but the impact was great. It introduced a generation to the idea of learning with computers and, more specifically, to the idea of learning in virtual environments ( source).
1984 - Electronic University Network (EUN)
Established with the mission of helping colleges and universities expand the availability of online courses, EUN offered its first online course in 1986 for use with DOS and Commodore 64 computers. However, this was before the invention of the World Wide Web, and students had to use proprietary software and communicate over telephone lines. The EUN began collaborating with America Online in 1992, serving as its higher education coordinator ( source).
1994 - CALCampus
This was the year when access to the Internet was exploding with companies such as America Online, Delphi, CompuServe and a host of other local Internet providers transforming stand-alone desktop computers in people's homes into windows to the world. The greater number of people with Internet access allowed what was formerly a small, offline adult learning center, CALC (Computer Assisted Learning Center), to evolve into CALCampus, which offered the first courses that we would recognize as 'online' with real-time instruction and interaction ( source) over the Internet.
1997 - California Virtual University (CVU) and the Journal of Asynchronous Learning Networks (JALN)
CVU was established in 1997 as a clearinghouse to provide information about all online courses available from accredited California colleges and universities. While it would ultimately fold in 1999 for political reasons, the concept spurred numerous online resources providing students with information about online education opportunities, such as California Virtual Campus ( source).

Despite the rather confusing title of the publication, the Journal of Asynchronous Learning Networks (JALN) was a watershed moment in online education. Created by the prestigious Sloan Consortium, JALN is a peer-reviewed journal that provided a dedicated space for academic research focused solely on online education. This made it distinctive from other publications that also included research on other types of distance learning ( source).
1999 - Accreditation for Jones International University
North Central Accreditation is offered to Jones International University in 1999. This marked a turning point for online education, taking it from the sidelines of college education and improving its image as a legitimate alternative to traditional, classroom-based college instruction ( source).
2002 - OpenCourseWare Project
MIT begins offering lectures and course materials online through its OpenCourseWare project in 2002, most of which is provided free of charge to anyone in the world. The goal is to offer these materials for all MIT courses. However, the legal logistics of intellectual property issues - not instructor willingness - present obstacles as the materials are released under a Creative Commons license. Even so, as of 2010, MIT offered materials for over 2000 undergraduate and graduate courses online ( source).
2009 - The tides have turned
As we approached the end of the first decade of the new century, the impact of online learning on education could no longer be denied. The number of students taking online courses jumped a whopping 187%, and there were about 5.5 million students worldwide who were taking at least one class online ( source). Moreover, traditional universities began expanding not only the number of online courses but the number of entire degree programs available online.

More than three-quarters of CEOs and small business owners stated that they viewed the quality of online education programs to be on par with traditional degree programs, refuting arguments that online courses and programs would not be recognized by employers. Previously a task assigned to adjunct faculty or associate professors, prestigious faculty at traditional universities begin recognizing the opportunity and start teaching online courses.
2014 - The future is now
So, what is the future of online learning? Predictions that online learning would completely replace traditional programs have proven unfounded. However, there is little doubt about predictions that the number of students expected to have at least one online course in their class schedule will quadruple in the coming decade.

From the first online correspondence course to now, the biggest change has been with our perceptions. No longer something that a student chooses only when it is impossible to take a class in a traditional setting, online learning has emerged triumphant as a viable education choice in its own right. Each student choosing an online course or an online program gets to play a small role in that evolution, shaping the course of online learning for the students of tomorrow.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Online education is nothing new. Okay, the technology is relatively new. However, the concept is over 170 years old and has its origins in a correspondence course offered in Great Britain where the instructor sent lessons and received students' completed assignments by mail.

# data[].attributes.body
Regulations
Learning Strategies
Pedagogy
Access and Cost

Shearer, R. (2015). Four evolving trends that may shape the future of distance education.The

Evolllution. Retrieved from https://evolllution.com/opinions/evolving-trends-shape-future-distance-education/

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
As distance education continues to evolve and move from the fringe of higher education to the mainstream there are and will be new challenges for the field. In the past ten years we have seen a dramatic shift in how distance education is positioned within institutions. Whether it has been relocated within the mainstream academic arm of institutions or where outreach and extension divisions have garnered new attention and support, it is clear there is now a major focus on distance education and online learning at almost every institution in the United States and in many other countries. Further, distance education is now seen as a predominantly online initiative, at least in the United States, and other delivery channels have taken a back seat.

With this level of dramatic change has come increased scrutiny by the Department of Education (DOE) with increased regulations pending. We have also seen an interesting commodification in the education sector, from online bookstores, online counseling, online tutoring, advising, and other areas all carried out by third-party entities. Also, in the past few years we have seen an emergence or re-emergence of educational models such as competency-based programs, courses at scale (MOOCs-the new version of independent study compiled with interaction features), and adaptive learning.

So given these fairly dramatic shifts in the past 10 years, what should we expect over the next 5 to 10 years in the field of distance education?
1. Regulations
With what could be considered exponential growth in DE enrollments across the education spectrum, we are likely to see increased scrutiny and regulations. As a larger percentage of financial aid is directed to this education modality, and with the increase in fraud and identity theft, we will continue to see discussions and possible legislation around identify verification (beyond online proctored exams), and a greater focus on outcomes for students. We will also continue to see the evolution of the state authorization system and new accreditation standards emerge. Key to many of the new regulations will be the upcoming reauthorization of the higher education act (likely to gain momentum in 2015 with a possible legislation in 2016).
2. Learning Systems
Although we have been questioning the future of the learning management system for the past 5 years, as we look forward to the next 5 to 10 years it now becomes a bigger question. We are starting to see the companies that were defined by their Learning Management Systems (LMSs) morph into education companies where the LMS is just one of the many services they provide. The overall education service ecosystem is far greater than the LMS and it is quite possible that the LMS will fade as we rethink the education experience in the classroom and online. LMSs have been great at replicating the classroom experience of old, and have managed the student, but not really the learning. Thus, as we look forward, it is very likely that how we view learning system environments will be very different.
3. Pedagogy
By definition the art and science of how people learn will not necessarily change; however the affordances that technologies bring to the table will drive us to explore new approaches to pedagogical practices. A recent report from the Open University in the UK, "Innovating Pedagogy 2014," highlights 10 innovations that may shape the future. Of note include: #8 Learning through storytelling-while not new, we are seeing a continued shift away from lecturing and old methods of delivering content, and into new modalities of exploring content; #9 Threshold concepts-setting the stage for exploring concepts in a new way other than the traditional presentation of content; and #10 Bricolage-this relates to the idea of tinkering or hands-on building. In other words, real-life experiences. These three innovations hold great promise for how we view our online course designs and again for how we move our courses away from the traditional replication of face-to-face experience.
4. Access and Costs
There is no doubt that both access and the cost of higher education have become front-and-center in the discussions of the value of a degree. Institutions will continue to have to find ways to cut or at least maintain current cost structures while continuing to provide a quality learning experience, and support faculty and research. Whether we will see analytics provide efficiencies is yet to be seen, and whether distance education and online can truly reduce costs is still open for debate. This will depend greatly on how institutions shift from face-to-face to online and what it means for the current physical infrastructure. Further, can we truly find a way to develop courses at scale that also provide a quality experience in terms of a social-constructive pedagogical approach, or will the ideas of connectivism as envisioned by Stephen Downs and George Siemens take root for our upper division courses?
Conclusion
This is an exciting time for distance education and institutions. Every concept of how we have thought about higher education is being examined and it opens the doors for great exploration and innovation in our pedagogical approaches and overall structures of institutions.

Regardless of which of the above may or may not occur it is evident that distance education and online learning will continue to push institutions of higher education to re-examine their existing educational models and how they look at serving the post-traditional students who are now the majority. Ultimately what we must stay focused on is that this is about learning; it is about changing our mental model and helping learners challenge existing ideas and expand their views of the disciplines and the world, and it is about access and success. The regulations, technologies and the rest are in support of these goals.

- - - -
References
Sharples, M. et. al. (2014). Innovating Pedagogy 2014: Exploring new forms of teaching, learning and assessment, to guide educators and policy makers. Open University Innovation Report 3, The Open University. Retrieved from http://www.open.ac.uk/blogs/innovating/

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Four Evolving Trends that May Shape the Future of Distance Education - The EvoLLLution

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
As distance education continues to evolve and move from the fringe of higher education to the mainstream there are and will be new challenges for the field. In the past ten years we have seen a dramatic shift in how distance education is positioned within institutions.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
The Future of Online Teaching and Learning in Higher Education: The Survey Says...

A survey substantiates some ideas about online learning and refutes others

Institutions of higher education have increasingly embraced online education, and the number of students enrolled in distance programs is rapidly rising in colleges and universities throughout the United States. In response to these changes in enrollment demands, many states, institutions, and organizations have been working on strategic plans to implement online education. At the same time, misconceptions and myths related to the difficulty of teaching and learning online, technologies available to support online instruction, the support and compensation needed for high-quality instructors, and the needs of online students create challenges for such vision statements and planning documents.

In part, this confusion swells as higher education explores dozens of e-learning technologies (for example, electronic books, simulations, text messaging, podcasting, wikis, blogs), with new ones seeming to emerge each week. Such technologies confront instructors and administrators at a time of continued budget retrenchments and rethinking. Adding to this dilemma, bored students are dropping out of online classes while pleading for richer and more engaging online learning experiences. ¹ Given the demand for online learning, the plethora of online technologies to incorporate into teaching, the budgetary problems, and the opportunities for innovation, we argue that online learning environments are facing a "perfect e-storm," linking pedagogy, technology, and learner needs. ²

Considering the extensive turbulence created by the perfect storm surrounding e-learning, it is not surprising that opinions are mixed about the benefits of online teaching and learning in higher education. As illustrated in numerous issues of the Chronicle of Higher Education during the past decade, excitement and enthusiasm for e-learning alternate with a pervasive sense of e-learning gloom, disappointment, bankruptcy and lawsuits, and myriad other contentions. ³ Appropriately, the question arises as to where online learning is headed. Navigating online education requires an understanding of the current state and the future direction of online teaching and learning.

The study described here surveyed instructors and administrators in postsecondary institutions, mainly in the United States, to explore future trends of online education. In particular, the study makes predictions regarding the changing roles of online instructors, student expectations and needs related to online learning, pedagogical innovation, and projected technology use in online teaching and learning.

Review of Literature

We began this project with a review of past studies of the issues and trends in online teaching and learning in higher education.

Online Teaching and Learning

A recent survey of higher education in the United States reported that more than 2.35 million students enrolled in online courses in fall 2004. ⁴ This report also noted that online education is becoming an important long-term strategy for many postsecondary institutions. Given the rapid growth of online education and its importance for postsecondary institutions, it is imperative that institutions of higher education provide quality online programs.

The literature addresses student achievement and satisfaction as two means to assess the quality of online education. Studies focused on academic achievement have shown mixed reviews, ⁵ but some researchers point out that online education can be at least as effective as traditional classroom instruction. ⁶ Several research studies on student satisfaction in online courses or programs reported both satisfied and dissatisfied students. ⁷

Faculty training and support is another critical component of quality online education. Many researchers posit that instructors play a different role from that of traditional classroom instructors when they teach online courses, ⁸ as well as when they teach residential courses with Web enhancements. ⁹ Such new roles for online instructors require training and support. Some case studies of faculty development programs indicate that such programs can have positive impacts on instructor transitions from teaching in a face-to-face to an online setting. ¹⁰

Pedagogy and Technology for Online Education

Several research studies have covered effective pedagogical strategies for online teaching. Partlow and Gibbs, for instance, found from a Delphi study of experts in instructional technology and constructivism that online courses designed from constructivist principles should be relevant, interactive, project-based, and collaborative, while providing learners with some choice or control over their learning. ¹¹ Additionally, Keeton investigated effective online instructional practices based on a framework of effective teaching practices in face-to-face instruction in higher education. In this study, Keeton interviewed faculty in postsecondary institutions, who rated the effectiveness of online instructional strategies. These instructors gave higher ratings to online instructional strategies that "create an environment that supports and encourages inquiry," "broaden the learner's experience of the subject matter," and "elicit active and critical reflection by learners on their growing experience base." ¹²

In another study of pedagogical practices, Bonk found that only 23-45 percent of online instructors surveyed actually used online activities related to critical and creative thinking, hands-on performances, interactive labs, data analysis, and scientific simulations, although 40 percent of the participants said those activities were highly important in online learning environments. ¹³ In effect, a significant gap separated preferred and actual online instructional practices.

Technology has played and continues to play an important role in the development and expansion of online education. Accordingly, many universities have reported an increase in the use of online tools. Over the past decade, countless efforts have sought to integrate emerging Internet technologies into the teaching and learning process in higher education. Several studies have reported cases related to the use of blogs to promote student collaboration and reflection. ¹⁴ Some researchers also have promoted the plausibility of using wikis for online student collaboration, ¹⁵ and podcasting is beginning to garner attention from educators for its instructional use. ¹⁶ Although some discussions in the literature relate to effective practices in the use of emerging technologies for online education, empirical evidence to support or refute the effectiveness of such technologies, or, perhaps more importantly, guidance on how to use such tools effectively based on empirical evidence, is lacking.

Method

This study was based on a survey of individuals believed to have relevant experience with and insights into the factors affecting the present and future state of online education.

Participants

An online survey was conducted of college instructors and administrators who were members of either the Multimedia Educational Resource for Learning and Online Teaching (MERLOT) or the Western Cooperative for Educational Telecommunications (WCET), both premier associations for online education. MERLOT is a free and open resource for higher education with membership that, at the time of this study, included more than 12,000 college professors, instructional designers, and administrators who share and peer-evaluate their Web resources and materials (today, MERLOT has more than 35,000 members). WCET is an organization with 500-600 members that provides resources and information regarding the effective use of telecommunications technology in learning. Also surveyed were those who had posted one or more course syllabi at the World Lecture Hall (WLH), which has approximately 2,000 members and was developed by the University of Texas for faculty to share syllabi.

This study is a part of a longitudinal effort to understand the use of technology in teaching, within both higher education and corporate training settings. The second author had previously surveyed MERLOT and WLH members on the state of online learning ¹⁷ as well as corporate trainers on online training ¹⁸ and blended learning.

Instrument

Using an online survey service, SurveyShare, we developed an online questionnaire as an instrument for this survey study. The questionnaire consisted of 42 questions grouped into three sections related to the current status and future trends of online education in higher education. The first section included 10 questions regarding respondents' demographic information. The second section included seven questions about the current status of online learning at the respondents' organizations. The third section included items regarding predictions about online teaching and learning. The survey used various types of questions, including Likert-type, multiple-choice, and open-ended questions.

Data Collection and Analysis

The survey took place from late November 2003 to early January 2004. An invitation was sent by e-mail to the sample of instructors, instructional designers, and administrators described earlier. The e-mail included information about the study as well as the URL to the survey site. Of more than 12,000 who received the e-mail request, 562 completed the survey. The participants responded to the survey anonymously, and the data were stored in the hosted online survey service. Descriptive data analyses (such as frequencies) were conducted using the data analysis tool provided in the online survey site.

Results

Our study confirmed some commonly held beliefs about online education, refuted others, and provided a range of predictions about the future of technology-enabled education.

Demographics of Online Instructors

Sixty-six percent of the survey respondents held teaching positions (professors, instructors, or lecturers), while nearly one-fourth were administrators or instructional designers. Respondents represented institutions of various types: approximately half were employed by public, four-year colleges or universities; 23 percent by community colleges or vocational institutes; and 16 percent by private postsecondary institutions. A large majority (87 percent) said their institutions offer online courses, and about 70 percent of them had taught online courses.

As shown in Figure 1, respondents' experience with online teaching varied from none to more than 10 years. Although not every respondent had online teaching experience, more than 95 percent had experience integrating computer or Web technology into their face-to-face teaching.

Survey results show that women appear to be teaching online in far greater numbers than just a few years ago. In fact, more than half of the respondents (53 percent) were women. Such findings were surprising because a similar study conducted a few years earlier was dominated by male instructors who were full professors at tier-one universities. ¹⁹ Perhaps female instructors had become more comfortable teaching and sharing activities online during the few years that elapsed between surveys, or perhaps support for instructors had improved on college campuses, or both.

Emerging Technology

When asked about several emerging technologies for online education, 27 percent of respondents predicted that use of course management systems (CMSs) would increase most drastically in the next five years. Those surveyed also said that video streaming, online testing and exam tools, and learning object libraries would find significantly greater use on campus during this time. Between 5 and 10 percent of respondents expected to see increases in asynchronous discussion tools, videoconferencing, synchronous presentation tools, and online testing.

The survey also asked what technology would most impact the delivery of online learning during the next five years. Respondents could select one of 14 key technologies. About 18 percent of respondents predicted that reusable content objects and wireless technologies would have the most significant impact. Smaller percentages (from 7 to almost 14 percent) selected peer-to-peer collaboration, digital libraries, simulations and games, assistive technologies, and digital portfolios. In contrast, less than 5 percent predicted that e-books, intelligent agents, Tablet PCs, virtual worlds, language support, and wearable technologies would have significant impact on the delivery of online learning. These findings seem to reflect the perceived importance of online technologies for sharing and using preexisting content.

Additionally, respondents predicted that advances in Internet technology (for example, greatly extended bandwidth and wireless Internet connections) are likely to increase the use of multimedia and interactive simulations or games in online learning during the next five to 10 years. Only about one in 10, however, predicted that advances in Internet technology would enhance videoconferencing or international collaboration, and just one in 16 thought it might offer greater chances to interact with field experts or practitioners. Again, the focus was on enhancing content and associated content delivery, not on the social interactions, cross-cultural exchanges, or new feedback channels that wider bandwidth could offer. Such responses indicate that respondents still see learning as content-driven, not based on social interactions and distributed intelligence. The emphasis remains on a knowledge-transmission approach to education, not one rich in peer feedback, online mentoring, or cognitive apprenticeship.

Enormous Learner Demands

Our study revealed a number of trends related to areas of growth in online education, future needs for online instructors, and the dominance of online versus face-to-face instruction.

Growth of Online Programs/Degrees. Comparing current online offerings and projected future online offerings at respondents' institutions yields predictions about the areas of growth in online programs and degrees. Most respondents expected considerable growth in online certification and recertification programs in the next few years, as well as in associate's degrees. Yet, our survey respondents predicted little growth in the number of institutions that offer online master's or doctoral programs in the future. Although more than half of the respondents (54 percent) expected that their institutions would offer online master's or doctoral programs in the coming years, almost the same number of respondents (53 percent) reported that their institutions were presently offering online master's or doctoral programs. In contrast, respondents predicted that certification and recertification programs would see 10-20 percent growth from present offerings. Such responses indicate that higher education institutions might be wise to explore certificate and short-program offerings rather than full degree programs.

Online Instructors' Readiness. Will online instructors be ready to meet the challenges brought by the projected increases in learner demands for online education? About half of the respondents predicted that monetary support for and pedagogical competency of online instructors would most significantly affect the success of their online programs (see Table 1). In addition, instructors' technical competency was the third most pressing factor. Nevertheless, as illustrated in Table 2, pedagogical skill was deemed more important than technological skill for effective online teaching. With regard to the needs for pedagogical competency of online instructors, a majority of the respondents expected that online instructors would typically have received some sort of training in online teaching either internally or externally by the year 2010.

The Rise of Blended Learning. The survey asked respondents for their predictions related to the growth of online education in the next few years. Respondents indicated that more emphasis is expected on blended learning-instruction that combines face-to-face with online offerings-than on fully online courses. Those surveyed predicted a distinct shift from about one-quarter of classes being blended today to perhaps the vast majority of courses having some Web component by the end of the decade (see Figure 2).

Enhanced Pedagogy

Although the use of CMSs in higher education has increased rapidly and is likely the foundation for the rapid increase in the number of online learners during the past decade, ²¹ some researchers argue that CMSs are promoted as ways to manage learners rather than to promote rich, interactive experiences. ²² As a result, enhancing pedagogy is perhaps the most important factor in navigating the perfect e-storm. In the present study, respondents made predictions about the quality of online education in the near future and about how online courses would be taught and evaluated.

The Quality of Future Online Education. Survey respondents generally agreed with recent Sloan reports that the quality of online education will improve in the future. ²³ Sixty percent of respondents expected that the quality of online courses would be identical to traditional instruction by the year 2006 (see Figure 3). Also, a majority of the respondents predicted that the quality of online courses would be superior to (47 percent) or the same as (39 percent) that of traditional instruction by 2013. Only 8 percent predicted that the quality of online courses would be inferior in 2013.

Similarly, a large majority of respondents predicted that learning outcomes of online students would be either the same as (39 percent) or superior to (42 percent) those of traditionally taught students by 2013. In effect, the trend is for course quality and learner outcomes to steadily and significantly improve during the coming decade. Although we did not ask about reasons for the increase in quality, such numbers should be interesting and valuable to administrators, instructors, students, and other online learning stakeholders.

In terms of factors that can improve online learners' success, respondents said that training students to self-regulate their learning (22 percent) was needed most, followed by better measures of student readiness (17 percent), better evaluation of student achievement (17 percent), and better CMSs to track student learning. Nine percent said additional technology training is needed. This concern about learner self-regulation is ironic in a world dominated and driven by learning management systems that are primarily used to manage students, as alluded to earlier. Follow-up surveys might address whether learners perceive this mixed message and whether they prefer to be managed online or engage in more self-directed online environments.

As Carmean and Haefner argued, there is a need for CMS environments that foster deeper student learning and engagement. ²⁴ They noted that such environments might foster student choice among various activities, reflection, apprenticeship, synthesis, real-world problem solving, and rich, timely feedback. More recently, Weigel added to this argument by suggesting that the next-generation CMS should foster a more learner-centered environment that rich in critical thinking, student exploration, peer learning and knowledge construction, interdisciplinary experiences incorporating a community of educators (practitioners, business leaders, alumni, and others), and educational opportunities. ²⁵

Online Teaching Skills. Instructors' abilities to teach online are critical to the quality of online education. Unlike our earlier study related to the state of online learning in 2001, which included many questions about online learning tools and features, the present study focused more on learning outcomes and pedagogical skills. For instance, this study found that the most important skills for an online instructor during the next few years will be how to moderate or facilitate learning and how to develop or plan for high-quality online courses (see Table 2). Being a subject-matter expert was the next most important skill. In effect, the results indicate that planning and moderating skills are perhaps more important than actual "teaching" or lecturing skills in online courses. As Salmon pointed out, online instructors are moderators or facilitators of student learning. ²⁶

Pedagogical Techniques. Over half of the survey respondents predicted that online collaboration, case-based learning, and problem-based learning (PBL) would be the preferred instructional methods for online instructors in the coming decade. In contrast, few respondents expected that instructors would rely on lectures, modeling, or Socratic instruction for their online teaching in the future (see Table 3). In other words, survey respondents predicted that more learner-centered techniques would be used in the future, indicating a marked shift from traditional teacher-directed approaches.

Existing research indicates that online instructors tend to use easy-to-implement tools, resources, and strategies rather than complex PBL, virtual teaming, cross-cultural collaboration, simulations, and other forms of rich interactive media. ²⁷ If the prediction for more learner-centered pedagogies online is realized, it would be interesting to study whether those teaching online transfer such pedagogical skills to their face-to-face instructional activities.

Our findings also indicated that, in general, respondents envisioned the Web in the next few years more as a tool for virtual teaming or collaboration, critical thinking, and enhanced student engagement than as an opportunity for student idea generation and expression of creativity. This is not surprising, given that most instruction in higher education is focused on consumption and evaluation of knowledge, not on the generation of it. Perhaps online training departments and units need to offer more examples of how to successfully embed creative and generative online tasks and activities.

Evaluation and Assessment of Online Courses. Evaluation is an important part of ensuring the quality of online courses and programs. Table 4 summarizes respondents' predictions about future trends concerning the evaluation of online learning. When asked how the quality of online education will be most effectively measured during the coming decade, 44 percent answered that a comparison of online student achievement with that of students in face-to-face classroom settings would be the most effective, followed by student performance in simulated tasks of real-world activities (15 percent), calculations of return on investment (10 percent), and student course evaluations (9 percent). Clearly, respondents believe that face-to-face instruction provides a valid benchmark for teaching and learning outcomes and that online performance should at least equal its effectiveness. Such views, while politically important, seem to forget that much of the learning that occurs online could not take place in a face-to-face delivery mode (for example, asynchronous online discussions or online mentoring). It also assumes that face-to-face instruction is superior. What if institutions took the opposite stance and measured face-to-face courses based on whether they could accomplish all that online instruction can?

As for the forms of evaluation that will be used during the next few years, respondents predicted that online practice quizzes and exams would be most highly used, followed by online surveying and polling, course evaluations, and online quizzes and exams. In particular, more than 90 percent of the respondents predicted that online surveys would be used as an important student research tool or as a teaching device in addition to student assessment and course evaluation. This finding affirms our belief that online surveys offer the chance to be learner-centered because they allow students to collect, analyze, and report on real-world data and projects.

Discussion and Conclusion

As institutions of higher education continue to embrace and debate online learning, it is important to envision where the field is headed. What might the next generation of online learning environments look like? Will they move from warehousing students in online environments to engaging them in interactive and motivational activities? What technological and pedagogical advantages will they offer? Current studies provide a glimpse of the pedagogical and technological possibilities. Clearly, we are entering a unique and exciting era in online teaching and learning. And perhaps the perfect e-storm is becoming less cloudy and ominous.

Implications of the Findings

Institutions of higher education need to consider whether they are ready to meet growing learner demands in the coming years. First of all, most respondents agreed that blended learning would have greater significance in higher education in the future. Although some institutions have already embraced blended learning, many others are slower at adopting it for various reasons. Perhaps leadership from the institution is crucial for faculty to receive adequate support to implement changes in the teaching process.

If the quality of online education is to improve as projected from this study, campuses must also look at the pedagogical issues in online learning. Collaboration, case learning, and PBL are likely to be the preferred methods of online instructors, with few relying solely on traditional methods. The data presented here also indicate that the continued explosion in online learning will bring increased attention to workshops, courses, and degree programs in how to moderate or mentor with online learning. Given that many respondents expect to receive some sort of training and support from their institutions to be ready for online teaching, colleges and universities need to consider how they will respond to these needs.

In addition, our study indicates that postsecondary institutions are finally focusing on how online learning can develop student collaboration and evaluation skills. In fact, most now see the potential of the Web in the coming years as a tool for virtual teaming or collaboration, critical thinking, and enhanced student engagement, though not necessarily as a tool for creative and individual expression. Do current CMSs provide tools to realize the potentials of the Web for innovative teaching and learning? Perhaps recent developments in open source courseware will force CMS vendors to develop and market more pedagogically engaging tools and resources.

This survey also forecasts enormous growth in online certification and recertification programs, as well as some growth in associate's and master's degree programs during the coming decade. In terms of technology, the study reveals interest among online instructors in wireless technologies, simulations, digital libraries, and reusable content objects. Perhaps we are entering a world where learning objects will be at our fingertips. Learning objects on different topics will likely be something you can grab like magazines and newspapers on the way into a plane, bus, or train. In addition, as bandwidth increases with the next-generation Internet technologies and capabilities, simulation and gaming tasks that online students engage in will be more realistic and authentic.

Study Limitations and Recommendations for Research

More than two years have passed since we conducted the survey. This time gave us the opportunity to see how the predictions our survey respondents made have played out. We have continued to witness accelerating growth of learner demands for online learning as well as the potential for enhanced online pedagogy due, in part, to the recent open source movement. Predictions related to emerging technologies seem to have been inaccurate, given that only 1 percent said that the use of blogs would increase dramatically by 2008. Given the thousands of new blogs each day, it is safe to say that this prediction did not hold.

This study did not explore actual online teaching and learning practices. It is likely that some responses were related to recent fads that may or may not be sustainable. In addition, we did not survey students for their perceptions of online learning trends and possibilities. A study of students might indicate that they deem different technologies to be important and on the cusp of significant growth. In a learner-centered world, who can better predict technology trends today-instructors or students? This study also indicated that blended learning will perhaps be a more significant growth area than fully online learning. Follow-up studies might focus on aspects of blended learning that institutions need to address, such as types of blended learning, activities that lead to blended-learning success, and instructor training for blended-learning situations. ²⁸

Endnotes

1. C. J. Bonk, "Online Teaching in an Online World" (executive summary), USDLA Journal, Vol. 16, No. 1, January 2002, < http://www.usdla.org/html/journal/JAN02_Issue/article02.html> (accessed August 8, 2006); and C. J. Bonk, "Online Training in an Online World" (executive summary), USDLA Journal, Vol. 16, No. 3, March 2002, < http://www.usdla.org/html/journal/MAR02_Issue/article02.html> (accessed August 8, 2006).

2. C. J. Bonk, The Perfect E-Storm: Emerging Technologies, Enhanced Pedagogy, Enormous Learner Demand, and Erased Budgets (London: The Observatory on Borderless Higher Education, 2004); and K.-J. Kim, C. J. Bonk, and T. Zeng, "Surveying the Future of Workplace E-Learning: The Rise of Blending, Interactivity, and Authentic Learning," E-Learn Magazine, June 2005, < http://www.elearnmag.org/subpage.cfm?section=research&article=5-1> (accessed August 8, 2006).

3. R. Detweiler, "At Last, We Can Replace the Lecture," Chronicle of Higher Education, July 9, 2004, p. B8; and R. Zemsky and W. F. Massy, "Why the E-Learning Boom Went Bust," Chronicle of Higher Education, July 9, 2004, p. B6.

4. E. I. Allen and J. Seaman, Growing by Degrees: Online Education in the United States, 2005 (Needham, Mass.: The Sloan Consortium, 2005).

5. I. Jung and I. Rha, "Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Online Education: A Review of the Literature," Educational Technology, Vol. 40, No. 4, 2000, pp. 57-60; and T. Russell, "No Significant Difference Phenomenon," < http://www.nosignificantdifference.org> (accessed August 10, 2006).

6. E. I. Allen and J. Seaman, Entering the Mainstream: The Quality and Extent of Online Education in the United States, 2003 and 2004 (Needham, Mass.: The Sloan Consortium, 2004); and T. M. Olson and R. A. Wisher, "The Effectiveness of Web-Based Instruction: An Initial Inquiry," International Review of Research in Open and Distance Learning, Vol. 3, No. 2, 2002, < http://www.irrodl.org/index.php/irrodl/article/view/103/182> (accessed August 8, 2006).

7. For a review of the literature on online student satisfaction, see J. R. Hill et al., "Exploring Research on Internet-Based Learning: From Infrastructure to Interactions," in Handbook of Research for Educational Communications and Technology (2nd ed.), D. H. Jonassen, ed. (Mahwah, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2004), pp. 433-460.

8. M. Sammons, "Exploring the New Conception of Teaching and Learning in Distance Education," in Handbook of Distance Education, M. G. Moore and W. G. Anderson, eds. (Mahwah, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2003), pp. 387-400.

9. R. G. Wingard, "Classroom Teaching Changes in Web-Enhanced Courses: A Multi-Institutional Study," EDUCAUSE Quarterly, Vol. 27, No. 1, 2004, pp. 26-35, < http://www.educause.edu/apps/eq/eqm04/eqm0414.asp> (accessed August 4, 2006).

10. J.-L. Lee and A Hirumi, "Analysis of Essential Skills and Knowledge for Teaching Online," paper presented at the Association for Educational Communications and Technology, Chicago, Ill., 2004; and V. E. Varvel, Jr., M. Lindeman, and I. K. Stovall, "The Illinois Online Network Is Making the Virtual Classroom a Reality: Study of an Exemplary Faculty Development Program," Journal of Asynchronous Learning Networks, Vol. 7, No. 2, 2003, pp. 81-95.

11. K. M. Partlow and W. J. Gibbs, "Indicators of Constructivist Principles in Internet-Based Courses," Journal of Computing in Higher Education, Vol. 14, No. 2, 2003, pp. 68-97.

12. M. T. Keeton, "Best Online Instructional Practices: Report of Phase I of an Ongoing Study," Journal of Asynchronous Learning Networks, Vol. 8, No. 2, 2004, pp. 75-100.

13. C. J. Bonk, Online Teaching in an Online World (Bloomington, Ind.: CourseShare, 2001).

14. J. Baggaley, "Blogging as a Course Management Tool," The Technology Source, July/August 2003, < http://technologysource.org/article/blogging_as_a_course_management_tool/> (accessed August 8, 2006); T. Martindale and D. A. Wiley, "Using Weblogs in Scholarship and Teaching," TechTrends, Vol. 49, No. 2, 2005, pp. 55-61; and J. A. Oravec, "Weblogs as an Emerging Genre in Higher Education," Journal of Computing in Higher Education, Vol. 14, No. 2, 2003, pp. 21-44.

15. B. Lamb, "Wide Open Spaces: Wikis, Ready or Not," EDUCAUSE Review, Vol. 39, No. 5, September/October 2004, pp. 36-48, < http://www.educause.edu/pub/er/erm04/erm0452.asp> (accessed August 6, 2006).

16. S. Sloan, "Podcasting in Education," paper presented at the EDUCAUSE Western Regional Conference, San Francisco, Calif., 2005.

17. Bonk, 2001, op. cit.; Bonk, January 2002, op. cit.

18. Bonk, March 2002, op. cit.

19. Bonk, 2001, op. cit.

20. C. J. Bonk and C. R. Graham, The Handbook of Blended Learning: Global Perspectives, Local Design (San Francisco, Calif.: Pfeiffer Publishing, 2006).

21. C. Carmean and J. Haefner, "Mind over Matter: Transforming Course Management Systems into Effective Leaning Environments," EDUCAUSE Review, Vol. 37, No. 6, November/December 2002, pp. 27-34, < http://www.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/erm0261.pdf> (accessed August 4, 2006).

22. C. J. Bonk, R. A. Wisher, and J.-Y. Lee, "Moderating Learner-Centered E-Learning: Problems and Solutions, Benefits and Implications," in Online Collaborative Learning: Theory and Practice, T. S. Roberts, ed. (Hershey, Pa.: Idea Group Publishing, 2003), pp. 54-85; and J. Stephenson, "Learner-Managed Learning: An Emerging Pedagogy for Learning Online," in Teaching and Learning Online: Pedagogies for New Technologies, J. Stephenson, ed. (London: Kogan Page, 2001), pp. 219-224.

23. Allen and Seaman, 2004, op. cit., and E. I. Allen and J. Seaman, Sizing the Opportunity: The Quality and Extent of Online Education in the United States, 2002 and 2003 (Needham and Wellesley, Mass.: The Sloan Consortium, 2003).

24. Bonk, Wisher, and Lee, op. cit.

25. V. Weigel, "From Course Management to Curricular Capabilities: A Capabilities Approach for the Next-Generation CMS," EDUCAUSE Review, Vol. 40, No. 3, May/June 2005, pp, 54-67, < http://www.educause.edu/apps/er/erm05/erm0533.asp> (accessed August 4, 2006).

26. G. Salmon, E-Moderating: The Key to Teaching and Learning Online (Sterling, Va.: Stylus Publishing, 2000); and G. Salmon, E-Tivities: The Key to Active Online Learning (Sterling, Va.: Stylus Publishing, 2002).

27. X. Liu et al., "Technology Use in an Online MBA Program: Issues, Trends and Opportunities," in Handbook of Research on Instructional Systems and Technology, T. Kidd, ed. (Hershey, Pa.: Idea Group, Inc., [in press]); D. Miodus

er et al., "Web-Based Learning Environments (WBLE): Current Implementation and Evolving Trends," Journal of Network and Computer Applications, Vol. 22, No. 4, 1999, pp. 233-247; K. Peffers and S. Bloom, "Internet-Based Innovation for Teaching IS Courses: The State of Adoption: 1998-2000," Journal of Information Technology Theory and Applications, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1999; and Wingard, op. cit.

28. C. J. Bonk and C. R. Graham, op. cit.

Kyong-Jee Kim ( kjkim@pdx.edu) is Senior Instructional Designer, Center for Academic Excellence, at Portland State University. Curtis J. Bonk ( cjbonk@indiana.edu) is Professor, Department of Instructional Systems Technology, in the School of Education at Indiana University.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.keywords[]
the future of online teaching and learning in higher education: the survey says

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
The Future of Online Teaching and Learning in Higher Education: The Survey Says

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
The Future of Online Teaching and Learning in Higher Education: The Survey Says... A survey substantiates some ideas about online learning and refutes others Institutions of higher education have increasingly embraced online education, and the number of students enrolled in distance programs is rapidly rising in colleges and universities throughout the United States.