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On certain days in May and July a sunset aligns itself along the streets of Manhattan. It is a wonderful moment that brings thousands of New Yorkers together to appreciate the beautiful sunset. If the Jersey shoreline has a sudden construction boom or Earth's axis is tilted due to a comic collision then the view of the Manhattanhenge may be affected.

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People watch and photograph the sunset on 42nd Street during "Manhattanhenge" on July 12, 2016, in New York City.

Credit: Volkan Furuncu/Anadolu Agency/Getty

Sunsets in New York City can be spectacular, but during certain days in May and July, the alignment of Earth and the sun creates an unusually striking phenomenon known as "Manhattanhenge," when the setting sun lines up within the grid layout of the city streets.

On these special days, the sun's descent follows a path that aligns precisely with the exact center of Manhattan numbered streets that run from east to west. As the sun sets, its rays illuminate the asphalt and the buildings that line these streets with a glowing beacon of golden light.

The event that is Manhattanhenge occurs because of urban design - streets set at 90 degree angles - juxtaposed with the timing of Earth's orbit and rotation as the planet travels around the sun. But will the city grid and the setting sun always line up so perfectly? Are there any factors - cosmic or otherwise - that could disrupt the perfect Manhattanhenge alignment? [ Manhattanhenge: Facts About NYC's Special Sunsets]

Manhattanhenge - a term coined by astrophysicist and New Yorker Neil deGrasse Tyson in 2001 - takes place on days that frame the summer solstice. It happens four times on two paired dates at the end of May and mid-July; twice with the half-set sun lining up in the exact center of the "canyons" between buildings, and twice with the full circle of the sun touching down in alignment with the city grid.

This year, Manhattanhenge will light up NYC on May 29 and May 30, and then again on July 12 and 13. The full sun will make its dramatic appearance across the grid on May 30 at 8:12 p.m. and July 12 at 8:20 p.m. local time, while the half sun will touch down on May 29 at 8:13 p.m. and on July 13 at 8:21 p.m., according to the American Museum of Natural History (AMNH) in New York City, which hosts a Manhattanhenge program on July 12.

Manhattanhenge hinges on two factors: the orientation of the city grid and the exact position of Earth relative to the sun based on its orbital path, rotation and tilt. When the timing is just right, a minute of sunset is visible simultaneously at the center of the city's east- and west-facing streets, said astrophysicist Jackie Faherty, a senior scientist and educator at AMNH.

Other gridded cities such as Toronto and Chicago also experience this sunset alignment effect, though on different days than those of Manhattanhenge. But Manhattanhenge's stunning visual impact is due in part to the expanse of the Hudson River and the relatively low buildings on the New Jersey shoreline, which make for an unobstructed view of the sun as it drops to the horizon in the west for "the grid kiss," Faherty told Live Science.

"If all of a sudden there was a big construction boom on the Jersey side, then we'd start to have problems with our view of Manhattanhenge, because you would have buildings that are blocking the moment of sunset," Faherty said. [ Manhattanhenge Images Reveal Stunning NYC Sunsets]

Manhattanhenge's alignment only happens on certain dates because the exact position of the rising and setting sun on the horizon is slightly different every day - the result of Earth being tilted on its axis by 23.5 degrees in its orbital plane, Faherty said. But in addition to Manhattanhenge, the nearly setting sun is visible between the city's cross streets during a range of dates bracketing the summer solstice (falling on June 21 this year), with the so-called "Manhattanhenge Effect" lasting from the first sunset grid kiss in May until the last one in July.

Between May 29 and the summer solstice, the sun is still visible at the center of the city's cross streets, hitting the "sweet spot" just a little higher each day. After the summer solstice, "when the Northern Hemisphere starts to tilt away from the sun," the same thing happens in reverse, with the sun hitting the center of the grid a little lower each day "until the second grid kiss in July, when it's the last time the sun makes it that far north," Faherty said.

However, if Earth were to suddenly tip over even farther on its axis - perhaps following a massive cosmic collision - that would jar the alignment enough to end Manhattanhenge forever.

"It would have to knock us pretty far, though, for it to not happen in Manhattan at all," Faherty said.

Such a devastating impact would cause a host of more immediate concerns than the loss of Manhattanhenge. But luckily, the chances of such an Earth-changing event actually taking place are pretty slim, she said.

"Earth is pretty stable in its orbit, so as far as current humanity goes, we're not losing that anytime soon. No one who's reading this is going to lose the grid kiss unless something catastrophic happens to the Earth, and I don't see anything like that on the horizon."

Original article on Live Science.

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Will 'Manhattanhenge' Always Light Up NYC Streets?

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Sunsets in New York City can be spectacular, but during certain days in May and July, the alignment of Earth and the sun creates an unusually striking phenomenon known as "Manhattanhenge," when the setting sun lines up within the grid layout of the city streets.

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In the northeastern forests there has been a boost in red spruce population. The increase in size caused the air to be cleaner.

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from research organizations
Credit: Alexandra Kosiba, University of Vermont
Red spruce, for decades the forest equivalent of the canary in the coal mine signaling the detrimental effects of acid rain on northeastern forests, is making a comeback. New research by a team of scientists from the USDA Forest Service and the University of Vermont suggests that a combination of reduced pollution mandated by the 1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act and changing climate are behind the resurgence.

The study, "The surprising recovery of red spruce growth shows links to decreased acid deposition and elevated temperature" by lead author Alexandra Kosiba of the University of Vermont with co-authors Paul Schaberg of the USDA Forest Service's Northern Research Station and University of Vermont researchers, was published this week in the journal Science of the Total Environment.

The research team assessed the relationship between red spruce growth and factors that may influence growth such as tree age and diameter, stand dynamics, plot characteristics (elevation, slope, aspect, geographical position), and environmental variables including temperature, precipitation, a suite of climate indices, and sulfur and nitrogen pollution deposition that cause acid deposition. In a study that encompassed 658 trees in 52 plots spanning five states, they found that more than 75 percent of red spruce trees and 90 percent of the plots examined in the study exhibited increasing growth since 2001.

"Our research suggests that the reductions we've seen in acid rain are making a difference to forests in the Northeast," said Schaberg. "Acid rain decline has helped red spruce recover, as well as higher temperatures in the fall, winter, and spring. Higher temperatures help some species and hurt others -- right now, red spruce are benefiting, but they could be vulnerable to change in the future."

Red spruce have unique characteristics that make them particularly susceptible to acid rain. For example, they have little genetic variation and they have only moderate tolerance to the cold. But they are also able to "wake up" and photosynthesize during warm interludes of the dormant season, a characteristic that may better position the species to take advantage of recent climate shifts that extend the functional growing season. Yet the study notes that future changes in habitat suitability may not be as favorable to red spruce as those already experienced -- it will likely depend on how extreme future changes are.

Scientists are confident that their research represents the state of red spruce in the entire region, according to Kosiba. "Our study included a broad range of tree ages and sizes as well as a variety of plot locations and characteristics," she said. "We are confident that we are capturing the regional status of red spruce forests, not just a snapshot of a specific location."

"More broadly our work demonstrates the importance of using research to identify ecosystem problems that inform policy to mitigate those issues, and result in biological recovery," noted Kosiba.

Journal Reference:

Alexandra M. Kosiba, Paul G. Schaberg, Shelly A. Rayback, Gary J. Hawley. The surprising recovery of red spruce growth shows links to decreased acid deposition and elevated temperature. Science of The Total Environment, 2018; 637-638: 1480 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.010

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trees; beer and wine; ecology research; soil types; forest; acid rain; environmental issues; rainforests

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Surprising resurgence of red spruce likely result of cleaner air and warmer winters

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When scientists found a resurgence of red spruce in northeastern forests, they had a lot of questions. Fifty years ago, red spruce was the equivalent of a canary in the coalmine signaling the effects of acid rain on forests. Researchers have identified two factors behind the tree's surprising recovery: reduced inputs of acid rain and warmer fall, winter and spring temperatures.

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By 2050 it is estimated that the world's population will reach 9.8 billion which is a 31% increase from today. Overpopulation causes a great threat to the environment. We are using 1.7 times the amount of resources a year than we should.

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The Earth's population is going to reach 9.8 billion by 2050

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According to the Population Reference Bureau's 2017 World Population Data Sheet, Earth will be home to 9.8 billion people by 2050.

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Availability to basic resources such as electricity, running water and medical supplies and also trained doctors are the answer to reduce maternal mortality rates but people are not sympathetic enough to make a change.

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On a recent visit to Sierra Leone, I met a lovely expectant mother named Susan Kellie. This was the fourth pregnancy for the 23-year-old with a shy smile, and she was sitting in the shade outside a maternal waiting home with other soon-to-be mothers. They had come because they lived far away and, once labor began, wanted to be near a clinic supported by Partners In Health, a global health nonprofit.

Kellie knows the importance of good care. She mourns the loss of a previous child, at a different clinic, and is doing all she can to keep this one - and herself - alive.

That's no small task. Sierra Leone has one of the world's worst maternal mortality rates. Nearly 1 in 17 women will die in pregnancy or childbirth, according to the World Bank. It's an abysmal statistic, especially when compared to the United States, where the rate is 1 in 3,800.

It's no mystery why maternal mortality is so high in Sierra Leone. With few other choices, most women give birth at home, where there is no electricity or running water. No sterile sheets or equipment. No doctor nearby, should complications arise. And no surgical ward or lifesaving medications, in case of obstructed labor or hemorrhaging.

For Sierra Leonean women, pregnancy is a life-threatening condition. And they are hardly alone. More than 300,000 women around the world died due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth in 2015, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Here in the United States, most women don't spend a lot of time thinking, "I hope I don't die in childbirth." It's not part of our day-to-day reality, any more than is dying from Ebola, malaria, or tuberculosis.

But that is false comfort.

Research shows that U.S. women run an outsized risk of dying in childbirth compared to other high-income countries. The New York Times, NPR and ProPublica, among others, have recently reported about the crisis. Black women are at especially high risk - being three to four times more likely to die during pregnancy or childbirth than white women.

The United States' maternal mortality rate places us behind countries including Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Bosnia and Herzegovina - despite our possession of the world's most advanced and expensive health care system.

The reason why some women die in childbirth and others don't has nothing to do with biology or culture, and everything to do with apathy.

What I'm advocating for is not a miracle ... It's [a] system that values mothers and mothering.

We have the tools to reduce maternal mortality, to stop what my colleagues would call "stupid deaths," especially in poor countries like Sierra Leone. There is no need for high-tech inventions. The need simply is for everyday interventions - such as electricity, sterile birth kits, blood banks, medications to stop hemorrhaging, doctors trained to provide emergency cesarean sections and nurse anesthetists to assist in this most routine of operations.

We need community health workers who know when their neighbors are pregnant so they can accompany them to prenatal checkups, where complications are detected early. And we need waiting homes where expectant mothers, many of whom live far from health facilities, can stay to be near trained professionals when labor begins.

What I'm advocating for is not a miracle. It's a health system that patients can rely on for quality, reliable care. It's also a system that values mothers and mothering. We need both for humane maternal care - and that's true from the poorest to the richest nations in the world.

After meeting Kellie, I walked through the newly renovated Koidu Government Hospital, which also is supported by PIH. I passed through sections dedicated to labor and delivery. Nearby, an operating room stood open 24 hours a day, seven days a week, for emergency C-sections. I ended my tour in the recovery ward, where new mothers cuddled healthy infants.

None of these sections were fully functioning when PIH arrived at the height of the Ebola epidemic in 2014. Thankfully, for mothers like Kellie, they are now.

After returning home to Boston, I learned that nurses escorted Kellie from the maternal waiting home to the government hospital. Her labor wasn't progressing properly, and doctors knew they had to act quickly. She was admitted and prepped for surgery. Soon thereafter, a surgeon performed a cesarean section and delivered Kellie's healthy baby into her arms.

Since 2016, in the government-related hospitals PIH works with in Sierra Leone, births have increased 15 percent, neonatal deaths have dropped significantly and the waiting time for a C-section has dropped from a peak of 16 hours to just 45 minutes.

Think of what more could be done - there and in every nation where women risk their lives by giving life.

Follow Cognoscenti on Facebook and Twitter, and sign up for our twice-weekly newsletter.

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We Know How To Reduce The Number Of Women Who Die In Childbirth. Do We Have The Will?

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On a recent visit to Sierra Leone, I met a lovely expectant mother named Susan Kellie. This was the fourth pregnancy for the 23-year-old with a shy smile, and she was sitting in the shade outside a maternal waiting home with other soon-to-be mothers.

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Over 400,000 people die prematurely a year due to air pollution. If petrol and diesel powered cars were removed from Europe 4% of premature deaths could be prevented.

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What would happen if all petrol and diesel-powered vehicles were removed from a smaller European city? Up to 4% of all premature deaths could be prevented, according to a new study from Lund University in Sweden. The researchers used Malmö, Sweden, as a case study to calculate the health costs of inner city traffic.

Every year, over 400,000 people in Europe die prematurely due to air pollution -- and there is clear evidence that the mortality rate is higher among people living in areas with more polluted air.

Malmö, Sweden, with a population of 320,000, generally stays below the recommended EU threshold for small particles and nitrogen oxides annually. Despite this, the health benefits of removing exhaust fumes from the city would be significant.

"Decreased pollution would prevent 55-93 premature deaths (2-4% of all cases) each year, 21 new cases of childhood asthma (6% of all cases), 95 cases of childhood bronchitis (10% of all cases), 30 hospitalisations for respiratory diseases (1% of all cases), 87 dementia cases (4% of all cases) and 11 cases of pregnant women with preeclampsia (11% of all cases)," explains Ebba Malmqvist, researcher at the Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine at Lund University.

The change would also prevent 2 729 days of sick leave and 16 472 days of reduced activity due to ill health, the study found.

The researchers have been very cautious in their interpretations, and the effects of decreased air pollution would probably be far greater in reality.

In Malmö, seven times more people die from these sources of air pollution than from traffic accidents.

"Our vision is zero traffic deaths, and considerable investments are made to ensure this -- yet we turn a blind eye to the health effects of air pollution," says Ebba Malmqvist.

Malmö generally stays below EU average air pollution levels of small particles and nitrogen oxides. According to the researchers, the chosen threshold is a compromise between the World Health Organisation's guidelines and political considerations. However, the epidemiological studies do not include limit values; as the values increase so do the risks.

"The limit value is to give EU citizens some protection against high levels of particles, but it does not represent a safe level. There is nothing to suggest that simply being below the limit value would have any health effects -- on the contrary, we see negative effects even at levels below the EU value," says Anna Oudin, also researcher at the Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine.

Despite the fact that researchers have been working on environmental considerations for more than 10 years, the decision-makers have apparently not absorbed the information.

"There is a tendency to believe that because we currently meet the environmental quality standards, our work is essentially done," says Anna Oudin.

As a result of the study, a number of workshops will be offered for employees working with urban planning issues in the City of Malmö, to discuss how to solve environmental issues in the future. One of several ideas is to introduce environmental zones:

"Environmental zones exist in other cities, where the strictest zone prohibits cars fuelled by petrol or diesel. But Malmö must figure out what suits them. However, we have shown that promoting cleaner air and better health of the population is worthwhile," concludes Ebba Malmqvist.

EXPLAINER VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz5eyg-12WE

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diseases and conditions; teen health; workplace health; health policy; air pollution; environmental issues; air quality; pollution

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The health effect of air pollution from traffic

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What would happen if all petrol and diesel-powered vehicles were removed from a smaller European city? Up to 4% of all premature deaths could be prevented, according to a new study. The researchers used Malmö, Sweden, as a case study to calculate the health costs of inner city traffic.

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15 million km contains acceptable conditions for permafrost, over time it will have a great decrease due to climate change.

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from research organizations

Understanding the thermal conditions of the ground in the Arctic is of utmost importance in order to assess the effects of climate change on the occurrence of permafrost, on the ecosystems and societies of Arctis, and the global climate system. Juha Aalto and Miska Luoto, researchers in natural geography at the University of Helsinki, participated in this study. The findings of the study have been published in the international journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The research has been carried out by Juha Aalto and Miska Luoto (Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki / Finnish Meteorological Institute), and Olli Karjalainen and Jan Hjort (Geography Research Unit, University of Oulu).
Support from statistical methods
The research modelled the temperatures of the ground and the thickness of the active layer, i.e. the layer above the permafrost, which thaws in summer. The study covered most of the northern hemisphere.

The modelling was based on a database combining very extensive field measurements and digital environmental data. The study utilised statistical ensemble methods with a spatial resolution of 1km2, an accuracy hitherto unseen.

"This is a significant step forward, as previous studies have only been able to provide a very general overview of the thermal conditions of Arctic ground and their changes," says Postdoctoral Researcher Juha Aalto.
Great changes in permafrost occurrence expected
According to the research findings, an area of around 15 million square kilometres contains favourable conditions for permafrost at the moment, taking modelling uncertainty into consideration.

"However, this area will shrink a great deal in future as a result of climate change," Aalto says.

Based on the best-case scenario for climate change (RCP2. 6), for example, conditions favourable to permafrost in the northern hemisphere will reduce with over one third by year 2050 as temperature and rain conditions change.

According to the worst-case scenario (RCP8. 5), areas favourable to permafrost would already have reduced by 47% at that point.

It is also remarkable that our models show that the relatively greatest changes will happen in areas where current soil temperatures are low, but the predicted climate change extensive. Such areas are e.g. the large permafrost areas in mid-Siberia," says Juha Aalto.

"The new data produced through the research will give us new opportunities to assess e.g. carbon cycle processes and the risks to the infrastructure posed by the permafrost melting," says Miska Luoto, professor in natural geography. The research is still on-going and more exact estimates of how the melting frost will affect such things as buildings and roads will be prepared.

The research is a collaboration between the University of Helsinki, the Finnish Meteorological Institute, and the University of Oulu, and is a part of the INFRAHAZARD project funded by the Academy of Finland. The project studies Arctic ground surface processes under climate change, and assesses the risks it poses to human activities.

Journal Reference:

J. Aalto, O. Karjalainen, J. Hjort, M. Luoto. Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness. Geophysical Research Letters, 2018; DOI: 10.1029/2018GL078007

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global warming; climate; environmental awareness; environmental issues; tundra; geography; weather; environmental policy

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More detailed data on thermal conditions of Arctic ground: Data on thermal conditions: Northern hemisphere modelled to accuracy of 1 km2

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Understanding the thermal conditions of the ground in the Arctic is of utmost importance in order to assess the effects of climate change on the occurrence of permafrost, on the ecosystems and societies of the Arctic, and the global climate system.

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Producers could come from the same product and still have different effects on the environment. Location and if the product is animal based or plant based are considered factors in the difference of impact.

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Researchers at Oxford University and the Swiss agricultural research institute, Agroscope, have created the most comprehensive database yet on the environmental impacts of nearly 40,000 farms, and 1,600 processors, packaging types, and retailers. This allows them to assess how different production practices and geographies lead to different environmental impacts for 40 major foods.

They found large differences in environmental impact between producers of the same product. High-impact beef producers create 105kg of CO ₂ equivalents and use 370m ² of land per 100 grams of protein, a huge 12 and 50 times greater than low-impact beef producers. Low-impact beef producers then use 36 times more land and create 6 times more emissions than peas.

Aquaculture, assumed to create relatively little emissions, can emit more methane, and create more greenhouse gases than cows per kilogram of liveweight. One pint of beer, for example, can create 3 times more emissions and use 4 times more land than another. This variation in impacts is observed across all five indicators they assess, including water use, eutrophication, and acidification.

"Two things that look the same in the shops can have very different impacts on the planet. We currently don't know this when we make choices about what to eat. Further, this variability isn't fully recognised in strategies and policy aimed at reducing the impacts of farmers." says Joseph Poore from the Department of Zoology and the School of Geography and Environment.

A small number of producers create much of the impact. Just 15% of beef production creates ~1.3 billion tonnes of CO ₂ equivalents and uses ~950 million hectares of land. Across all products, 25% of producers contribute on average 53% of each product's environmental impacts. This variation and skew highlights potential to reduce impacts and enhance productivity in the food system.

"Food production creates immense environmental burdens, but these are not a necessary consequence of our needs. They can be significantly reduced by changing how we produce and what we consume" says Joseph Poore.

"One of the key challenges is finding solutions that are effective across the millions of diverse producers unique to agriculture. An approach to reduce environmental impacts or enhance productivity that is effective for one producer can be ineffective or create trade-offs for another. This is a sector where we require many different solutions delivered to many millions of different producers."

For producers, the researchers present evidence in favour of using new technology. This technology often works on mobile devices, taking information on inputs, outputs, climate, and soil, to quantify environmental impacts. The technology then provides recommendations on how to reduce these impacts and increase productivity.

However, producers have limits on how far they can reduce their impacts. Specifically, the researchers found that the variability in the food system fails to translate into animal products with lower impacts than vegetable equivalents. For example, a low-impact (10th percentile) litre of cow's milk uses almost two times as much land and creates almost double the emissions as an average litre of soymilk.

Diet change, therefore, delivers greater environmental benefits than purchasing sustainable meat or dairy.

Further, without major changes in technology that disproportionately target animal products, the researchers show that animal product-free diets are likely to deliver greater environmental benefits than changing production practices both today and in the future.

Specifically, plant-based diets reduce food's emissions by up to 73% depending where you live. Staggeringly, global agricultural land would also be reduced by ~3.1 billion hectares (76%). "This would take pressure off the world's tropical forests and release land back to nature" says Joseph Poore.

The researchers show that we can use take advantage of variable environmental impacts to access a second scenario. Reducing consumption of animal products by 50% by avoiding the highest-impact producers achieves 73% of the previous scenarios GHG emission reduction for example. Further, lowering consumption of discretionary products (oils, alcohol, sugar, and stimulants) by 20% by avoiding high-impact producers reduces the greenhouse gas emissions of these products by 43%.

This creates a multiplier effect, where small behavioural changes have large consequences for the environment. However, this scenario requires communicating producer (not just product) environmental impacts to consumers. This could be through environmental labels in combination with taxes and subsidies.

"We need to find ways to slightly change the conditions so it's better for producers and consumers to act in favour of the environment" says Joseph Poore. "Environmental labels and financial incentives would support more sustainable consumption, while creating a positive loop: Farmers would need to monitor their impacts, encouraging better decision making; and communicate their impacts to suppliers, encouraging better sourcing."

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agriculture and food; food and agriculture; food; nature; environmental issues; sustainability; environmental policy; environmental awareness

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Research reveals how the same foods create markedly different environmental impacts: And outlines a new approach to reduce them

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Researchers at Oxford University and the Swiss agricultural research institute, Agroscope, have created the most comprehensive database yet on the environmental impacts of nearly 40,000 farms, and 1,600 processors, packaging types, and retailers. This allows them to assess how different production practices and geographies lead to different environmental impacts for 40 major foods.

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In May of this year sea levels rose in the Central-Pacific causing temperatures to rise. The Kelvin wave-warm water created when winds change from easterlies to westerlies, is slowly making it's way to the Pacific.

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Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

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After a mild La Niña late last year, temperatures, convection and rainfall rates in the equatorial Pacific Ocean returned to normal by early April of this year. An April 9 image of sea level height from the U.S./European Jason-3 satellite mission showed most of the ocean at neutral heights. But by the beginning of May, high sea levels began to build up in the Central Pacific. In the tropics, high sea levels are usually caused by a layer of warm water at or below the surface.

This patch of high sea level is slowly traveling eastward through the tropical Pacific Ocean along the equator. Known as a downwelling Kelvin wave, this type of signal is often a precursor to an El Niño event.

The Kelvin wave formed after a few short periods when winds changed from the prevailing easterlies to westerly -- known as westerly wind bursts -- in the far western Pacific in early 2018. In addition, there has been a general weakening of the easterly winds along the equator since January. Both of these wind conditions combine to create the Kelvin wave, which moves east along the equator and results in the spreading of warm water layers that are normally confined to the western Pacific Ocean eastward into the central Pacific. The red pattern visible at the equator on May 9 is the result of this downwelling Kelvin wave.

During a large El Niño, like the 2015-16 event, a huge area where sea levels are more than a foot (30 centimeters) higher than normal is visible in Jason-3 images. The high sea level is caused by a thick layer of warm water in the upper several hundred feet of the ocean. Such large El Niño events affect weather and climate across the globe, particularly in the western United States. In California, El Niños usually mean above-average winter rainfall, while Oregon and Washington typically see drier-than-normal winters.

El Niños happen when a series of Kelvin waves like this one spread warm water from west to east along the equator, causing high sea levels in the Central Pacific and sometimes as far east as the coastlines of Central and South America. The warm water is currently confined to the subsurface, with no warming at the ocean surface -- a first indicator of an upcoming El Niño event. But forecasters at agencies like NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) will be watching closely for more Kelvin waves like this one as summer approaches.

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, manages the Jason-3 mission for NASA. NOAA operates Jason-3 in partnership with NASA, the French space agency (CNES), and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT).

News media contact

Alan Buis
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California
818-354-0474
Alan.Buis@jpl.nasa.gov

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Warm water creeps into otherwise-calm Central Pacific - Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

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After a mild La Niña late last year, temperatures, convection and rainfall rates in the equatorial Pacific Ocean returned to normal by early April of this year. An April 9 image of sea level height from the U.S./European Jason-3 satellite mission showed most of the ocean at neutral heights.

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New York City recently proposed a bill that prohibits the use of single use straws in eateries throughout the city. This will decrease the amount of plastic being wasted and thrown out.

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New York Today

Updated, 10:50 a.m.
Good morning on this warming Wednesday.
As you sip your iced coffee this morning, imagine doing it without a straw.

A bill being introduced in the City Council today would outlaw plastic straws at eateries across the boroughs.

"It's important for New Yorkers to understand that the plastic straw is not a necessity; it's more of a luxury, and our luxury is causing great harm to other environments," said the bill's lead sponsor, Councilman Rafael L. Espinal Jr., a Democrat from Brooklyn.

The measure comes on the heels of proposals to ban single-use plastic bags statewide and the sale of disposable plastic bottles in city parks.

It would prohibit bars, restaurants and other service establishments - from small food carts to large stadiums - from offering single-use plastic straws or stirrers with drinks. Paper straws would still be allowed.

"New Yorkers need to know and understand that plastic isn't the only type of straw available," Mr. Espinal said. "There are paper straws, aluminum straws and bamboo straws that are much safer for our environment, to name just a few."

More than 60 restaurants here have already gone straw-free. The ban, if passed, would be enforced by the city departments of consumer affairs, sanitation and health. Violators could face fines starting at $100.

Mr. Espinal said the proposal took on added urgency in April after a whale washed ashore in Spain with more than 60 pounds of trash - including plastic bags and a plastic drum - in its guts. Working with the Wildlife Conservation Society, which launched its Give a Sip project to support the plastic straw legislation, Mr. Espinal hopes to draw attention to how New York's plastic consumption is affecting turtles, fish, birds and even whales living in our own waterways.

Only 9 percent of plastic waste is recycled; much of the rest, piling up in landfills or littered on the ground, can end up in the ocean by way of wind, water or humans.

"I don't believe there are any huge obstacles," Mr. Espinal said. "It's not like plastic bags, where consumers felt it was important for them to carry out their groceries. A straw is not a necessity for most New Yorkers, so I think this is more of a change of thinking."

Here's what else is happening:

Weather

Partly sunny and partly sweaty.

The high shouldbreak 80 today and is likely to stay there - during the day, at least - into Memorial Day weekend. (Saturday could hit 90!)

T. G. I. almost F.

In the News

* Joseph J. Lhota, the chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, is actively involved in many other businesses, which pay him well. A New York Times examination revealed a web of potential conflicts of interests. [ New York Times]

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Joseph J. Lhota, center, at the M.T.A.'s Genius Transit Challenge conference at the Hammerstein Ballroom in Midtown last June. Credit Victor J. Blue for The New York Times

* Michael Cohen, the president's personal lawyer, could face more pressure from the special counsel after his business partner agreed to work with prosecutors. [ New York Times]

* Barbara Underwood has been approved as the state's attorney general, and she is the first woman to hold that position. [ New York Times]

* After a bumpy first couple of months on the campaign trail, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo has begun to find his footing. [ New York Times]

* A sweeping plan to fix the subways is soon to be unveiled. And the cost is $19 billion. [ New York Times]

The subway's new leader, Andy Byford, is expected to unveil a $19 billion plan to overhaul the city's subway system. Credit Karsten Moran for The New York Times

* The toll of overdoses on synthetic marijuana in Brooklyn has reached 56. [ New York Times]

* Time is running out for the city to select a public housing monitor. [ New York Times]

* The man who stabbed a 6-year-old boy to death and left a 7-year-old girl fighting for her life in an elevator in Brooklyn was sentenced to 50 years to life in prison. [ New York Times]

* The lawyer who insulted Spanish-speaking workers at a Manhattan restaurant apologized after a week of strong backlash across the city. [ New York Times]

* Ever wonder what it's like to spend the day aboard a Mister Softee truck? [ New York Times]

* It's festival season. Here are some local dance festivals to catch this summer. [ New York Times]

* Have you ever wanted to go ice skating in summertime? You will soon be able to on Governors Island. [ am New York]

* Dogs in Brooklyn are getting sick with a strain of the flu. [ The Brooklyn Paper]

* Today's Metropolitan Diary: " Biking and Beeping "

* For a global look at what's happening, see Your Morning Briefing.

Coming Up Today

* The Broadway Green Alliance hosts a textile drive in Times Square, collecting clothes and household items from shows, theaters and fans, to be donated and recycled. 11 a.m. [Free]

* The swing band Svetlana and the Delancey Six leads a dance party by the fountain terrace in Bryant Park in Midtown. 6 p.m. [Free]

* " New York's Big Comeback," a conversation with the former deputy mayor Daniel Doctoroff and the New York Times reporter Charles Bagli, at the Museum of the City of New York in East Harlem. 6:30 p.m. [$20]

* " Whose War on Drugs? " - a town hall meeting with local leaders and activists about drug policy and its effects on Brooklyn - at BRIC House in Fort Greene. 6:30 p.m. [Free]

* An outdoor screening of " Wonder " at Happy Warrior Playground on the Upper West Side. 7:30 p.m. [Free]

* Yankees at Rangers, 7:05 p.m. (YES). Mets host Marlins, 7:10 p.m. (WPIX).

* Alternate-side parking remains in effect until Monday.

* For more events, see The New York Times's Arts & Entertainment guide.

And Finally...

Celebrating one of our favorite reading spots. Credit Vincent Tullo for The New York Times

Happy birthday, New York Public Library.

The institution was not the first of its kind for our city; first there were the Astor Library, created by John Jacob Astor and housed in what is now the Public Theater, and the Lenox Library, founded by the merchant and real estate investor James Lenox, at the site of what is now the Frick Collection. The former governor Samuel J. Tilden had also dedicated his fortune to the building of "a free library and reading room."

A decade after Tilden's death, his trust was combined with the Astor and Lenox libraries to form the New York Public Library on May 23, 1895.

Construction at 42nd Street and Fifth Avenue could begin only after workers cleared out a reservoir on the site. "The People's Palace," completed more than a decade later, was dedicated on May 23, 1911.
New York Today is a morning roundup that is published weekdays at 6 a.m. If you don't get it in your inbox already, you can sign up to receive it by email Also, we are experimenting with a limited-run newsletter this summer to offer you the best events, food and drink in New York. Sign up for Summer in the City here. As a weekly newsletter, it's not a commitment. And like summer, it's fleeting - it will only publish through Labor Day. here.

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New York Today: The Scourge of Plastic Straws

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New York Today Updated, 10:50 a.m. Good morning on this warming Wednesday. As you sip your iced coffee this morning, imagine doing it without a straw. A bill being introduced in the City Council today would outlaw plastic straws at eateries across the boroughs.

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80% of homes in Poland run on coal, making 33 of it's 50 cities the dirtiest cities in Europe. It is estimated that 48,000 Pole die every year to illnesses due to pollution.

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ZAR MOUNTAIN, Poland - High atop the ski lift at Zar Mountain in southern Poland, the villages below disappear. At first, they seem obscured by morning fog. But the yellow haze does not lift. It hangs heavy, the contrast with the white snow making it clear that something is off.

What is off is the air. Poland has some the most polluted air in all of the European Union, and 33 of its 50 dirtiest cities. Not even mountain retreats are immune.

The problem is largely a result of the country's love affair with coal. Like elsewhere in Poland, most of the homes in the villages below Zar Mountain are still heated by coal. Some 19 million people rely on coal for heat in winter. In all of the European Union, 80 percent of private homes using coal are in Poland.

Coal, commonly referred to as "black gold," is seen as a patriotic alternative to Russian gas in this country, which broke away from Soviet control three decades ago and remains deeply suspicious of its neighbor to the east. Burning coal is part of daily life.

Many street corners, near bus and tram stops, feature containers known as braziers that burn coke, a coal derivative that is chiefly carbon. On a recent morning in Swietochlowice, to the north, children threw in sticks and paper, sucking in the fumes.

Outdated furnaces burn coal, too. Andrzej Machno, who lives in the small city of Skawina, northeast of Zar Mountain, has used the same furnace for more than three decades.

He has been waiting for local government funding to change to a newer, cleaner-burning model. But it is not clear when the money will arrive, or if he will qualify.

"I think all the promises come with elections," Mr. Machno said. But once the campaigns are over, he said, all the grand ideas fade away.

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In the meantime, the smog is everywhere.

Driving through small villages near Rybnik, about two hours to the northwest of the mountain and one of the cities ranked as the European Union's most polluted, smoke poured out of the houses that hug the main road.

It was evening, but strangely bright as smoke particles diffused the light from street lamps, creating an eerie orange glow. "This doesn't look right," a father said as he hurried past with his son, his jacket pulled above his mouth.

In Krakow, with its majestic castle looming over the old town, many of the buildings are still equipped with furnaces dating back decades. At the beginning of the winter, coal deliverymen make the rounds.

But now so do eco-consultants for the local government, which has undertaken one of the most ambitious projects in the country to wean people off burning coal or wood.

The Krakow government has outlawed the use of the cheapest, most polluting coal, and by 2019, aims to ban all burning of coal and wood.

The government workers try to help residents with the transition to cleaner fuel and furnaces, and guide them to available funds to pay for it.

If the effort succeeds, it may provide a model for other cities around the country. Already it has cut the number of outdated furnaces to about 10,000, from more than double that several years ago.

Other municipalities, like Katowice, about an hour's drive west of Krakow, are using drones to monitor household emissions.

But overall action has been lacking from the national government of the Law and Justice party, which has long championed the politically powerful coal industry.

In December, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki used one of his first speeches to announce plans to build two new coal mines in Silesia, the industrial region in southwest Poland.

As the toll mounts from the pollution problem, especially for children, the government is also coming under greater pressure, including the prospect of fines for violating European Union standards.

Some 48,000 Poles are estimated to die annually from illnesses related to poor air quality. Greenpeace estimated that 62 percent of Poland's kindergartens are in heavily polluted areas.

In response, the government announced that it will spend $8.8 billion by 2028 to combat smog.

"We don't want our children to associate winter with masks on their faces, but with snow and sleds and snowmen," Mr. Morawiecki said.

Industry and transportation are also big contributors to the smog. Poland is infamous for having the oldest cars in the European Union, with the average age of the car 13 years.

A social movement has sprung up across the country to combat pollution and educate people, especially children.

A physiotherapist by profession, Jolanta Sitarz-Wojcicka became an activist two years ago, when she had a baby and realized that the air outside was so bad she could not leave her home without risking the health of her newborn.

She took up the cause in her hometown of Zakopane, the southeast of the mountain, and now it is her sole focus. Winning the war on smog requires changing habits deeply embedded in the culture. She starts with educating school children.

At a primary school in Nowe Bystre near Zakopane, she showed the kids different pictures of trash and asked them which is O.K. to burn in a furnace.

"The smaller the village, the more interesting the responses," she said. It is not what they are taught, she said, but what they see. And they often see people burning anything that will burn.

Thanks to a grant from the European Union, she can dedicate herself full time to the cause. But she is worried.

If the situation does not improve in the next few years, she said, she plans to move to Sweden.

Others already move to escape the pollution. Andrzej Bargiel, a well-known Polish mountaineer, used to live in downtown Zakopane, where the air gave him constant headaches. He feels better since relocating above the city, he said.

Aneta Seidler, a local leader of a Smog Alert group in Nowy Targ, in southern Poland, who has one child and is pregnant with a second, tries not to let her family leave the house, where they have plenty of air filters. They often leave the country in the winter.

"To breathe," she said.

Oliwer Palarz, an activist with the Rybnik Smog Alert group, makes his children Antoni and Tymon wear anti-smog masks while outside. He is suing the Polish government, claiming that its lack of action on pollution has violated his civil rights.

Many are not optimistic things are headed in the right direction. The European Court of Justice ruled that Poland infringed air quality laws between 2007 and 2015 by continuously exceeding pollution values.

While the European Union continues to play a leading role in action to limit global warming, Poland is likely to be an outlier for some time.

Poland's appetite for coal is so great, it is even importing more and more of it from the United States, where the Trump administration has been trying to revive its own coal industry.

In Belchatow, Poland maintains Europe's largest coal-fired utility plant, at the edge of a coal mine eight miles long and two miles wide.

It shows no signs of slowing, and continues to belch out carbon at an astounding rate. It is the largest carbon emitter in Europe.

Correction:

Because of an editing error, an earlier version of a picture caption with this article mischaracterized where a well-known Polish mountaineer moved. He moved above Zakopane, not to Zakopane.

A version of this article appears in print on , on Page A4 of the New York edition with the headline: Coal Warms Poland's Hearths, and Fouls Its Skies. Order Reprints | Today's Paper | Subscribe

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Smothered by Smog, Polish Cities Rank Among Europe's Dirtiest

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ZAR MOUNTAIN, Poland - High atop the ski lift at Zar Mountain in southern Poland, the villages below disappear. At first, they seem obscured by morning fog. But the yellow haze does not lift. It hangs heavy, the contrast with the white snow making it clear that something is off.

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A mud bath is used to wash off grime and dirt from the Taj Mahal. Pollution and poor air quality has increased greatly over the years and has been a huge issue in India.

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Prominent politicians have shown up for the cleaning, including Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, the state that includes Agra. Mr. Adityanath, a Hindu nationalist, came under fire last year for questioning the centrality of the Taj Mahal, with its Muslim heritage, in India's tourism circuit. But on a recent visit, he, too, picked up a broom to sweep near an entry gate, calling the monument a "unique gem."

Investment has recently poured into Agra. In 2012, a fast-track highway connecting New Delhi, India's capital, with Agra opened, allowing visitors to reach the Taj Mahal in around three hours.

In December, the World Bank announced that it would provide a $40 million loan to the Indian and Uttar Pradesh governments to develop the Taj Mahal and other monuments. It is unclear how much - if any - of that money will be spent on the cleaning, which officials are hoping to complete by November.

Although tourism numbers at the Taj Mahal have dropped slightly over the last few years, perhaps because of the scaffolding, the crowds are still enormous, prompting the Archaeological Survey of India to float a proposal to cap the number of daily visitors at 40,000 people and limit entry to three hours for each tourist.

Fodor's Travel Guide has advised visitors to skip the Taj Mahal until restoration work on the dome, which has yet to start, is completed. But Shamsuddin Khan, a longtime tour guide in Agra, said he was unconcerned. He expressed confidence that people from all over the world would continue to wake up before dawn, just as they have for years, to catch a glimpse of the tomb blanketed in soft, golden light.

"The Taj Mahal is going to remain the Taj Mahal," he said.

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To Rid the Taj Mahal of Its Grime, India Prescribes a Mud Bath

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Prominent politicians have shown up for the cleaning, including Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, the state that includes Agra. Mr. Adityanath, a Hindu nationalist, came under fire last year for questioning the centrality of the Taj Mahal, with its Muslim heritage, in India's tourism circuit.

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Just days before World Ocean Day a pilot whale died on the coast of Thailand due to pollution. He was seen struggling to swim, people spent 5 days trying to keep the whale alive, his stomach was clogged with 80 plastic bags.

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A pilot whale that swallowed more than 80 plastic bags is seen in this still image from a June 1 video taken by Thailand's Department of Marine and Coastal Resources.

Credit: Thailand's Department of Marine and Coastal Resources/Social Media/REUTERS/Newscom

More than 80 plastic bags were found clogging the stomach of a small male pilot whale that died in Thailand on Friday (June 1), just days before World Ocean Day on June 8.

Veterinarians tried to save the whale for five straight days after spotting it in a Thai canal by the Malaysian border, according to National Geographic. When rescuers first spotted the whale, it was struggling to swim and breathe. So, rescuers used buoys to keep it afloat and opened red umbrellas to keep the whale from getting a sunburn.

Although the whale spit up five plastic bags, that wasn't enough to save it. A necropsy (an animal autopsy) revealed that it had more than 17 lbs. (8 kilograms) of plastic bags and other human-made trash in its stomach, according to Reuters. [ Photos: Pilot Whales in Trouble off Everglades]

The whale likely mistook the plastic bags for food, said Regina Asmutis-Silvia, the executive director of Whale and Dolphin Conservation's North American operation. As the bags piled up in its stomach, the animal would have felt full and may have stopped hunting for its natural diet of squid, fish and octopus.

"At some point, their stomach fills up with trash and they can't eat real food," Asmutis-Silvia told National Geographic. "You're not getting any nutrients in, and you've basically completely clogged your digestive system."

This pilot whale is hardly the only creature that has mistakenly dined on plastic with fatal consequences. At least 300 marine animals die in Thai waters each year after gulping down too much plastic, Thon Thamrongnawasawat, a marine biologist and lecturer at Kasetsart University in Bangkok, told Agence France-Presse. Worldwide, seabirds also mistake plastic trash for food, as do turtles, other whales, dolphins, seal pups and tiny crustaceans living in the Mariana Trench, the deepest place in the ocean, Live Science previously reported.

Some 18 billion lbs. (8 million kg) of plastic waste end up in the oceans annually, according to National Geographic. In the United States, the average person discards 185 lbs. (84 kg) of plastic trash, but this number can be reduced if people avoid single-use products - such as plastic bags and straws - and by properly recycling plastic products.

Original article on Live Science.

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Pilot Whale Dies After Eating More Than 80 Plastic Bags

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More than 80 plastic bags were found clogging the stomach of a small male pilot whale that died in Thailand on Friday (June 1), just days before World Ocean Day on June 8. Veterinarians tried to save the whale for five straight days after spotting it in a Thai canal by the Malaysian border, according to National Geographic.

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Since the beginning of mass-produced plastics in 1950, humans have produced 9 billion tons of plastic. Half of which has been made in the past 13 years.

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(Image credit: Jenna Jambeck/University of Georgia)
"I just want to say one word to you. Just one word. Are you listening? Plastics."
This famous line from the 1967 classic film "The Graduate" was meant as advice for Dustin Hoffman's character, Benjamin Braddock, but in retrospect, it should have been a warning.

A new study, which is the first global analysis of all mass-produced plastics ever made, finds that since large-scale manufacturing of plastics took off in the 1950s and until 2015, humans have produced approximately 9 billion tons (8.3 billion metric tons) of plastic. [ In Photos: World's 10 Most Polluted Places]

To put that in perspective, all that plastic would be equivalent to 85,567 aircraft "supercarriers" like the USS Gerald R. Ford, which weighs 107,000 tons (97,000 metric tons), according the U.S. Navy.

Of those 9 billion tons, half was made in the last 13 years, said Roland Geyer, an associate professor of industrial ecology at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and lead author of the new study, which was published online today (July 19) in the journal Science Advances.

"You could say, 'What a phenomenal success story,' but I do think it will come with some heavy environmental collateral damage," he told Live Science.

As of 2015, about 7 billion tons (6.3 billion metric tons) of plastic have been disposed of as waste, with only 9 percent of it recycled, 12 percent incinerated, and a whopping 79 percent finding its way into landfills, the researchers report.

If this doesn't change, 13.2 billion tons (12 billion metric tons) of plastic waste will be disposed of in landfills by 2050, Geyer and his colleagues wrote in the study.

Those were really stunning numbers at the time, Geyer said, and he was compelled to get a more comprehensive view of society's plastic use and management. But now that he knows the big picture, Geyer said he's no longer surprised by the amount of plastic marine debris.

"It's a lot, but it's only a fraction of the total amount we're making," he said.

Currently, the world produces 440 million tons (400 million metric tons) annually, he said. The amount in the ocean is about 1 or 2 percent of that total. [ In Images: The Great Pacific Garbage Patch]

To arrive at their finding, Geyer and his colleagues pulled data, available publicly and privately, from several different industry associations describing production of high-density polyethylene (PE), low-density and linear low-density PE, polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS), polyvinylchloride (PVC), polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and PUR resins; and polyester, polyamide and acrylic (PP&A) fibers. The study did not include bio-based or biodegradable plastics, which account for 4.4 tons (4 metric tons) annually.

Originally, the researchers compiled numbers for plastics that people use in everyday situations, such as packaging, household items, car parts, electronics and other common products. But then, Geyer said the researchers decided to include plastic fibers used in textiles, such as in fleece and polyester, which are used to make clothing, carpets, curtains and furniture.

"I was really surprised by how big the production numbers were," he said.

In 2015, 66 million tons (60 million metric tons) of synthetic fibers were manufactured, about as much as the amount of aluminum that was made in that same year, he said.

When the scientists looked at the life cycle of plastics, they found that 60 percent of all plastics produced has been discarded into landfills or some other part of the environment. Plastics, which are made from fossil fuels, do not biodegrade. Instead, they break down into tinier "micro-plastics," which have been shown to infiltrate marine and freshwater sources where their impact is still largely unknown, Geyer said.

Geyer is convinced that dealing with the plastic waste problem requires a solution that goes beyond recycling. "It's not up to the job," he said.

Rather, he said the problem needs to be tackled with the entire tool kit of sustainable materials management, which includes not only recycling but also substitution, reducing the amount of materials required to make a product or construct a building, and perhaps creating energy through incineration.

"Hopefully, everyone who reads this article will come away with the same idea, that we need to change the way we make use of and manage plastics," he said.
Original article on Live Science.

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Humans Have Produced a Whopping 9 Billion Tons of Plastic

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(Image credit: Jenna Jambeck/University of Georgia) "I just want to say one word to you. Just one word. Are you listening? Plastics." This famous line from the 1967 classic film "The Graduate" was meant as advice for Dustin Hoffman's character, Benjamin Braddock, but in retrospect, it should have been a warning.

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Over the years the speed of tropical storms have declined, more hurricanes are lingering causing more damage to land.

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A new study shows that storms are staying in one place longer, much like Hurricane Harvey did last year.

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Hurricane Harvey over the Gulf of Mexico in August 2017. The storm stalled over Texas and dropped nearly 50 inches of rain in some places. Credit NOAA/NASA GOES Project

With wind speeds that can top more than 180 miles per hour, hurricanes are not usually thought of as slow. Yet tropical cyclones, which include hurricanes, have grown more sluggish since the mid-20th century, researchers say. That may mean bad news for people residing in their path.

A study published Wednesday in the journal Nature focuses on what is known as translation speed, which measures how quickly a storm is moving over an area, say, from Miami to the Florida Panhandle. Between 1949 and 2016, tropical cyclone translation speeds declined 10 percent worldwide, the study says. The storms, in effect, are sticking around places for a longer period of time.

Lingering hurricanes can be a problem, as Texans learned last year when Hurricane Harvey stalled over the state, causing devastating flooding and billions of dollars of damage. The storm dropped more than 30 inches of rain in two days and nearly 50 inches over four days in some places. A report released this month by Harris County, which includes Houston, found that Harvey's rainfall exceeded every known flooding event in American history since 1899.

" The really, really high rainfall totals were because the storm moved so slowly," said Deanna Hence, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, who was not involved in the new research. "The large amount of rain that is going to come out of a tropical storm or hurricane anyway fell in the same place over a long period of time."

To analyze the changes in translation speeds, James Kossin, a climate scientist with theNational Centers for Environmental Information at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, tapped into a global data set on past tropical storms. The data include estimates of the latitude and longitude of each named storm's center at six-hour intervals.

By comparing a given storm's positions over time, Dr. Kossin was able to measure how quickly it had moved across the landscape. He then calculated the average speeds of the storms from year to year, and found that tropical cyclones had been slowing over time.

There are limitations to the analysis, said Dr. Hence. The study does not say how much of the extra rainfall produced by a storm like Harvey was caused by the storm staying in one place, as compared to other contributing factors, like the unusually warm ocean waters that fueled the hurricane.

There is also the question of what is causing the slowdown. The new paper is a study based on analysis of observations, so it does not answer that question directly. But broader evidence suggests that climate change is playing a role.

Belts of wind known as steering winds are responsible for moving hurricanes along their paths. "Hurricanes are carried passively by the winds that they're sitting in," Dr. Kossin said. "It's not quite like a cork in a stream, but not too different, either."

The steering winds draw power from the temperature differences between the tropics and the poles. But because of climate change, that temperature difference is declining, weakening the winds. The slower steering winds move hurricanes more slowly.

Adding to the evidence, researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research compared computer simulations of 22 past storms with simulations of those same storms based on future climate conditions. They found that average hurricane translation speeds slowed in the future simulations. The Journal of Climate published their conclusions this year.

A growing body of research is showing that hurricanes are becoming more dangerous. A recent analysis by noted climate scientists, though not a peer-reviewed study, suggested that even as the winds that move hurricanes along are getting weaker, the winds inside hurricanes are getting stronger.

The threats aren't limited to those who live along coastlines. " Freshwater flooding is particularly dangerous because that happens inland and people don't typically evacuate," Dr. Kossin said. "If you live in a place with any sort of mountainous area - or any topography at all, really - then you have that compound danger of mudslides. As it's turning out, it's the freshwater flooding that poses the highest mortality risk nowadays in certain regions."

Kendra Pierre-Louis is a reporter on the climate team. Before joining The Times in 2017, she covered science and the environment for Popular Science. @kendrawrites

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Hurricanes Are Lingering Longer. That Makes Them More Dangerous.

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A new study shows that storms are staying in one place longer, much like Hurricane Harvey did last year. With wind speeds that can top more than 180 miles per hour, hurricanes are not usually thought of as slow. Yet tropical cyclones, which include hurricanes, have grown more sluggish since the mid-20th century, researchers say.

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Old ice that can withstand more heat is melting in the Arctic,which a huge threat to surrounding species such as narwhals.

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Sea Ice EXTENT in EARLY march

Sea Ice EXTENT in EARLY march

Sea Ice EXTENT in EARLY march

Sea Ice EXTENT in EARLY march

Sea Ice EXTENT in EARLY march

Sea Ice EXTENT in EARLY march

In the Arctic Ocean, some ice stays frozen year-round, lasting for many years before melting. But this winter, the region hit a record low for ice older than five years.

This, along with a near-record low for sea ice over all, supports predictions that by midcentury there will be no more ice in the Arctic Ocean in summer.

As darker, heat-absorbing water replaces reflective ice, it hastens warming in the region. Older ice is generally thicker than newer ice and thus more resilient to heat. But as the old ice disappears, the newer ice left behind is more vulnerable to rising temperatures.

"First-year ice grows through winter and then to up to a maximum, which is usually around in March," said Mark A. Tschudi, a research associate at the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research at the University of Colorado, Boulder. "As summer onsets, the ice starts to melt back."

Some of the new ice melts each summer, but some of it lingers to grow thicker over the following winter, forming second-year ice. The next summer, some of that second-year ice survives, then grows even thicker and more resilient the next winter, creating what is known as multiyear ice. Some ice used to last more than a decade.

Percentage of Arctic Ice in Early March

Percentage of Arctic Ice

in Early March

Percentage of Arctic Ice in Early March

Today, Arctic sea ice is mostly first-year ice. While the oldest ice has always melted when currents pushed it south into warmer waters, now more of the multiyear ice is melting within the Arctic Ocean, leaving more open water in its wake.

This is especially bad for animals like narwhals, the so-called unicorns of the sea, that use sea ice to avoid predators like killer whales. As the sea ice disappears, killer whales spend more time in narwhal waters, eating the narwhals and driving them from the richest feeding grounds.

"I've been on record saying that it may be 2030 that we could see a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean," said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. "Some people have said that that's too aggressive, that we're looking at maybe sometime in the 2040s. But we are definitely on track to lose that summer sea ice cover. Honestly, I don't think there's any going back at this point."

Sources: National Snow and Ice Data Center and the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research.

Note: Early March is defined as the ninth week of each year, which is a commonly used yearly interval for evaluating Arctic ice attributes.

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In the Arctic, the Old Ice Is Disappearing

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Sea Ice EXTENT in EARLY march Sea Ice EXTENT in EARLY march Sea Ice EXTENT in EARLY march Sea Ice EXTENT in EARLY march Sea Ice EXTENT in EARLY march Sea Ice EXTENT in EARLY march In the Arctic Ocean, some ice stays frozen year-round, lasting for many years before melting.

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If climate change continues to increase so does the population of atmospheric rivers.

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Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

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A new NASA-led study shows that climate change is likely to intensify extreme weather events known as atmospheric rivers across most of the globe by the end of this century, while slightly reducing their number.

The new study projects atmospheric rivers will be significantly longer and wider than the ones we observe today, leading to more frequent atmospheric river conditions in affected areas.

"The results project that in a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate, there will be about 10 percent fewer atmospheric rivers globally by the end of the 21st century," said the study's lead author, Duane Waliser, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "However, because the findings project that the atmospheric rivers will be, on average, about 25 percent wider and longer, the global frequency of atmospheric river conditions -- like heavy rain and strong winds -- will actually increase by about 50 percent."

The results also show that the frequency of the most intense atmospheric river storms is projected to nearly double.

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow jets of air that carry huge amounts of water vapor from the tropics to Earth's continents and polar regions. These "rivers in the sky" typically range from 250 to 375 miles (400 to 600 kilometers) wide and carry as much water -- in the form of water vapor -- as about 25 Mississippi Rivers. When an atmospheric river makes landfall, particularly against mountainous terrain (such as the Sierra Nevada and the Andes), it releases much of that water vapor in the form of rain or snow.

These storm systems are common -- on average, there are about 11 present on Earth at any time. In many areas of the globe, they bring much-needed precipitation and are an important contribution to annual freshwater supplies. However, stronger atmospheric rivers -- especially those that stall at landfall or that produce rain on top of snowpack -- can cause disastrous flooding.

Atmospheric rivers show up on satellite imagery, including in data from a series of actual atmospheric river storms that drenched the U.S. West Coast and caused severe flooding in early 2017.

The study

Climate change studies on atmospheric rivers to date have been mostly limited to two specific regions, the western United States and Europe. They have typically used different methodologies for identifying atmospheric rivers and different climate projection models -- meaning results from one are not quantitatively comparable to another.

The team sought to provide a more streamlined and global approach to evaluating the effects of climate change on atmospheric river storms.

The study relied on two resources -- a set of commonly used global climate model projections for the 21st century developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's latest assessment report, and a global atmospheric river detection algorithm that can be applied to climate model output. The algorithm, developed earlier by members of the study team, identifies atmospheric river events from every day of the model simulations, quantifying their length, width and how much water vapor they transport.

The team applied the atmospheric river detection algorithm to both actual observations and model simulations for the late 20 th century. Comparing the data showed that the models produced a relatively realistic representation of atmospheric rivers for the late 20 th century climate.

They then applied the algorithm to model projections of climate in the late 21 st century. In doing this, they were able to compare the frequency and characteristics of atmospheric rivers for the current climate with the projections for future climate.

The team also tested the algorithm with a different climate model scenario that assumed more conservative increases in the rate of greenhouse gas emissions. They found similar, though less drastic changes. Together, the consideration of the two climate scenarios indicates a direct link between the extent of warming and the frequency and severity of atmospheric river conditions.

What does this mean?

The significance of the study is two-fold.

First, "knowing the nature of how these atmospheric river events might change with future climate conditions allows for scientists, water managers, stakeholders and citizens living in atmospheric river-prone regions [e.g. western N. America, western S. America, S. Africa, New Zealand, western Europe] to consider the potential implications that might come with a change to these extreme precipitation events," said Vicky Espinoza, postdoctoral fellow at the University of California-Merced and first author of the study.

And secondly, the study and its approach provide a much-needed, uniform way to research atmospheric rivers on a global level -- illustrating a foundation to analyze and compare them that did not previously exist.

Limitations

Data across the models are generally consistent -- all support the projection that atmospheric river conditions are linked to warming and will increase in the future; however, co-author Marty Ralph of the University of California, San Diego, points out that there is still work to be done.

"While all the models project increases in the frequency of atmospheric river conditions, the results also illustrate uncertainties in the details of the climate projections of this key phenomenon," he said. "This highlights the need to better understand why the models' representations of atmospheric rivers vary."

The study, titled "Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers," was recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

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intergovernmental panel on climate change

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Climate change may lead to bigger atmospheric rivers - Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

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A new NASA-led study shows that climate change is likely to intensify extreme weather events known as atmospheric rivers across most of the globe by the end of this century, while slightly reducing their number. The new study projects atmospheric rivers will be significantly longer and wider than the ones we observe today, leading to more frequent atmospheric river conditions in affected areas.

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In countries like South Africa where unsafe abortions are performed more abortion regulations are needed to provide women with the correct care they need. About 30% of women in South Africa don't even know that abortion is legal because it is performed in an unsafe and uncivilized way.

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I have been an abortion provider for as long as I have been a qualified doctor. In the past five years, I have been inundated with emails, social media requests and calls from women from all walks of life desperate for my help.

I will never forget one young woman who came to the public clinic in the West Rand township near Johannesburg, panicking about massive blood loss from her vagina. It was only after some prompting that she and a family member admitted to using abortion pills purchased outside a shopping centre. She bought the pills after being denied an abortion by the local clinic, where health workers told her "We don't do those things here," and shamed her for being young and sexually active.

Paramedics were soon on the scene as she needed resuscitation and they transported her to the nearest private hospital. Two hours later, I learned that she had gone to the operating theatre, where she was undergoing a hysterectomy as a result of sepsis and haemorrhage. She was only 17.

This happened in South Africa, a country that liberalised abortion 21 years ago. And it serves as a warning to those rejoicing over the referendum victory in Ireland: after the laws have been passed, the hard work of implementation begins.

The Choice on Termination of Pregnancy Act (Ctop) came into effect in South Africa in February 1997, with hopes it would promote female reproductive autonomy by providing free access to abortion. It has been described by the Guttmacher Institute as "one of the most liberal abortion laws in the world" and secured all South African women - and minors - the right to decide to have an abortion.

While the Act is celebrated as a historic moment for women, today's reality could not be more different. There is a lack of access to information on legally recognised sexual and reproductive rights - including how and where to access legal abortion services - and too few authorities help make abortion accessible. The law is necessary, but it is not sufficient to ensure that women have access to abortion - in South Africa and across the rest of the world.

There are several reasons why abortion service provision has essentially ground to a halt despite South Africa's liberal abortion law.

The formal health system does as little as it can to comply with the law. A recent survey by Bhekisisa, the Mail & Guardian newspaper's health journalism centre, found that less than 5% of public clinics and hospitals offer the procedure. The National Department of Health's website fails to list any information on abortion and neither do its four mobile apps.

Instead, women turn to illegal and unsafe means to terminate pregnancies. According to a 2017 study, 32% of South African women do not know abortion is legal. Experts believe that 50% of abortions occur outside designated health facilities. Illegal abortion flyers have become recognisable on many lamp-posts across the country, including at the entrance of the Department of Health. They promise same-day abortions, which can include an indiscriminate concoction of pills and procedures that risk incomplete abortions, sepsis and even death.

There is little political will to uphold the law. Authorities take no preventative measures to control or prosecute street and cyber marketing for illegal abortion services. The minister of health, Aaron Motsoaledi, has been named a champion of the She Decides movement, yet he has led a department that has regressed in the last decade over abortion services. He is unresponsive and inaccessible to women's movements and shows little stewardship in ensuring the Ctop Act is translated into services.

As a doctor, I have seen what lack of access to abortions means: too many South African women suffer needless complications and preventable deaths. But I cannot get much more specific than that, as the Health Systems Trust said in its 2011 report that the government's abortion statistics are "increasingly unreliable".

The Department of Health estimated that between 2008 and 2010, 23% of maternal deaths resulting from septic "miscarriages" in public health facilities were the direct result of unsafe abortions. The true number of maternal deaths resulting from abortion complications remains unknown, and is likely to be under-reported.

We cannot ignore the role the US has played in limiting South Africa's legal milestones. The Mexico City policy, also known as the "global gag rule", denies foreign organisations receiving US government funds the right to provide information, referrals or services for legal abortions. Trump's expansion of the rule further restricts NGOs to using their own funds to save lives. This will lead to preventable deaths and life-long ill health from complications due to unsafe procedures.

In response to the lack of provision for women wanting a pregnancy terminated in South Africa, Amnesty International and the University of Cape Town made important recommendations for what is required to ensure women can access abortion services as provided for by law, in a safe and timely manner.

It's been 21 years since abortion was legalised in South Africa, but we have not seen the political will to uphold basic human rights for women. It is possible for people to be aware of their rights, to build an inclusive policy and ensure access to quality services. What will it take for my country to step up?

Dr Tlaleng Mofokeng is a doctor based in Johannesburg and a sexual and reproductive health and rights activist

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It takes more than pro-choice laws to end deaths from unsafe abortions | Dr Tlaleng Mofokeng

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I have been an abortion provider for as long as I have been a qualified doctor. In the past five years, I have been inundated with emails, social media requests and calls from women from all walks of life desperate for my help.

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If Ireland does not come up with a climate change plan they will not meet their international emissions target by 2020.

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Last week the Irish Environmental Protection Agency confirmed that Ireland will miss its 2020 international emissions target by a wide margin. The goal is 20% cuts on 2005 levels; in reality we're on track for 1%.

It further predicted that the gap between stated ambition and reality will, if anything, widen over the coming years. Starting from 2020 this will almost certainly mean fines - potentially of millions of euros - being levied by the European commission.

Plans such as a 20% increase in milk production to satisfy export markets in China and beyond point Ireland unambiguously in the wrong direction. Peat, the most dirty fuel of all, is still commercially extracted and burned to produce some of the country's electricity. As well as increasing our carbon footprint it degrades our national ecosystems. Microgeneration of electricity cannot be pushed back on to the grid, even for free, making Ireland a sore thumb anomaly internationally and curtailing domestic renewables uptake. Electric vehicle take-up remains abysmally low. Ireland has a lot to do just to play catch-up, let alone take a leadership role, in tackling climate change.

Ireland has also been heavily in the news recently over the referendum to repeal the eighth amendment, which prohibited abortion. The role of the Citizens' Assembly, an exercise in deliberative democracy, in the process has, quite rightly, been lauded. It proved that given time, access to expert evidence, the absence of the proverbial megaphones of vested interests, and a conducive environment to discuss issues, citizens can, and will, come to informed and nuanced opinions.

Less well known, at least outside Ireland, is that the assembly have considered a number of additional topics. These included how the state can help make Ireland a leader in tackling climate change. As noted already, Ireland's progress to date on this issue has been wholly inadequate.

It was my privilege to serve on the expert advisory group of the assembly for its climate deliberations. Citizens were presented over two weekends with what amounted to a crash course in, not just the evidence basis for climate change, but also what critical aspects of their life, such as energy, transport, agriculture, and our homes might look like 30 years hence, were Ireland to become a leader in tackling climate change. They were also shown inspiring present day exemplars such as the Dublin fire brigade station that has gone carbon neutral, through community owned renewable energy efforts in Tipperary, to organic low-impact farmers.

Crucially, these discussions were undertaken without the voices of vested interests, from both ends of the spectrum. These all too often tend to obfuscate, and discussions of climate change in the public sphere turn into a slanging match.

At the end of the two weekends citizens voted on a range of questions. If the citizens are as representative of broader society as implied by the eight amendment deliberations, where the assembly ballot results almost exactly matched the referendum result, then the results were awe-inspiring. They should act as a real wake-up call to both the current government and future governments. Every single question given to the citizens attained at least 80% agreement. Most attained close to unanimous agreement.

Real efforts were made to ensure that the questions given were balanced and nuanced and properly reflected trade-offs that would be required in the real-world. There were no questions, for example, about subsidies without a commensurate counterweight of a source of increased revenues to cover the costs.

But they also recognised aspects such as equity that could and should be achieved. So, for example, there was a question around raising taxes on carbon intensive activities. But the funds would then be ringfenced and used to enable the transition to lower-intensity activities, with priority given to those in fuel poverty and community owned activities.

The citizens were almost unanimous in desiring an act similar to the UK Climate Change Act with a watchdog similar to the Climate Change Committee charged with setting sector-wise targets but given real teeth - the ability to sue the government or other public bodies for non-conformance.

The citizens also voted strongly for the imposition of tax and subsidy basis for the farming sector to penalise carbon intensive activities and encourage more climate friendly behaviours in the sector. They also wanted Ireland to reimagine its approach to transport, in both urban and rural areas.

The recently unveiled 2040 strategy of the government, if enacted in full, starts to make substantive progress in addressing many, but by no means all, of the issues raised. But, unless and until strategy is translated into action and results across successive governments the jury must remain out.

There is clearly an enormous appetite to make Ireland live up to its reputation as the emerald island by being a leader in addressing climate change. Citizens recognised the competitive advantages of energy independence and first mover advantage, as well as co-benefits such as air quality improvements.

Will our politicians give the same due diligence to the Citizens' Assembly's climate change considerations as the eighth amendment? Time will tell.

* Peter Thorne is the director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units at Maynooth University and a coordinating lead author on the IPCC sixth assessment report
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It's time for Ireland to deliver a credible climate plan | Peter Thorne

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Last week the Irish Environmental Protection Agency confirmed that Ireland will miss its 2020 international emissions target by a wide margin. The goal is 20% cuts on 2005 levels; in reality we're on track for 1%. It further predicted that the gap between stated ambition and reality will, if anything, widen over the coming years.

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In May of 2018 there were reports that China were considering getting rid of all limits on family size, while Egypt stated that "two is more than enough" because of their rising birthrate.

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How many children are enough? How many are too many? People's feelings about their childhood, their partners and their jobs all shape these intimate choices. Yet in aggregate, clear patterns emerge. One of the most personal decisions a couple can make has profound repercussions for their country's future, when it may strain resources or reduce the labour force supporting an ageing population.

This is the most common reason, though not the only one, for governments to intrude into the sex lives of their citizens. They may do so coercively, though measures such as forced sterilisation are banned under international law. They may seek to encourage procreation: Mongolia's "First Order of Glorious Motherhood" is awarded to women who have borne six children or more.

Reports emerged last month that China is considering scrapping all limits on family size - after a more modest shift from the "one-child" policy to a universal two-child rule three years ago failed to produce the baby boom officials had sought. Though birthrates have fallen dramatically in many Asian countries, Beijing's strict birth control policies played a major part in turning the demographic dividend, which fuelled its economic miracle, into a demographic timebomb.

Meanwhile, Egypt has declared " two is enough" as it struggles to hold back a rising birthrate. The country's president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, has placed population growth on a par with terrorism as the greatest danger to the country: there are almost 105 million Egyptians already, and on current trends there will be 23 million more by 2030. Egypt's slogan mimics Singapore's " stop at two" edict in the 1970s. How much of a role the campaign played in cutting family sizes is debatable; social and economic changes certainly had a bigger impact. But the birthrate in Singapore plummeted from 4.85 in the 1960s to 1.24 in 2015. As the government now attempts to reverse course, it has tried everything from offering cash payments for each baby and prioritised access to government-built flats to issuing pheromone-laced fragrances and arranging speed-dating events.

China isn't handing out perfume yet. But it too is discovering that the precise factors shaping the birthrate are both hard to pin down and predict, and slow to respond to government diktat. Punishments and benefits don't always produce the results anticipated. Handouts don't always do much to address the broader concerns about the future, or the sense of stress and pressure in daily life, which can discourage people from having more babies. In the US, births are at a record low despite a growing number of women of childbearing age: the decline began in 2008, the year of the financial crisis.

Population matters, but panics about both low and high levels tend to be exaggerated. The former might be better addressed through measures such as immigration and increased productivity than telling people to make more babies. In the latter case, the education and empowerment of women, improved access to contraception and family planning advice (the central pillar of the Egyptian campaign) and social support (so that children aren't the only pension and health plan on offer) are all part of the solution.

Still, Egypt might want to proceed with care. As China and Singapore have found, an apparently desirable fall in the birthrate can have unanticipated consequences. Governments are able, in the last resort and at great human cost, to enforce maximal limits. Making people have more children is trickier.
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The Guardian view on family planning policies: two kids or too many? | Editorial

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How many children are enough? How many are too many? People's feelings about their childhood, their partners and their jobs all shape these intimate choices. Yet in aggregate, clear patterns emerge. One of the most personal decisions a couple can make has profound repercussions for their country's future, when it may strain resources or reduce the labour force supporting an ageing population.

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To protect the environment and the health of humans, families must have fewer kids. If more countries have fewer children fertility rates will decline and stay low.

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Create a new document and edit with others at the same time -- from your computer, phone or tablet. Get stuff done with or without an internet connection. Use Docs to edit Word files. Free from Google.