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'I used to think ...'

'Now I think ...'

Write two paragraphs answering the question, 'Why is the weather so hard to predict?'. Your first paragraph should describe what you thought before starting this assignment.

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I used to think the weather forecasters and meteorologists used to look up at the sky, analyze for a while and always end up with accurate results, at least 90% of the times. It used to be fascinating to think that they just knew what the weather would be by looking at a map or just plainly at the sky.

Now I know that it's not all that easy... It takes a lot of effort and work in order to get a somewhat accurate result for us to refer to. It involves a lot of research and work, from using equations to analyzing and reading weather maps. Even though, nowadays the meteorologists and weather forecasters have a lot of recourses, the weather predictions will never be 100% accurate. There will always be some sort of assumptions that they make which will affect the final result. Any little thing can change the result majorly. Which brings me to the topic of the butterfly affect or the chaos affect, the butterfly/chaos affect means that any little change can affect something so majorly that everything changes. Something so little like a butterfly flapping there wings can affect or change into something so major.

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I used to think that weather prediction was extremely easy. You just need to know the humidity of the air and you can predict the weather.

But now I think that weather prediction is extremely hard and unstable. Because there are too many factors in our daily life, even the tiny warm air that on the ground can go up can mix and make it rain. Like convective rain, it is hard to predict because it is created by the convective rain is triggered by the heats from a small patch of ground, so it hard to know will the air masses is enough to let it rise to the sky, how long it will take. It is like the butterfly effect-a butterfly flaps its wing and it causes a massive storm. It tells us, even a small factor can have a big effect.

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I used to think weather was really easy to predict, they look at the sky to predict the rain. I thought they used a really quality machine and they can know what weather it will be. Or they can use the computer to look at the sky and see if the rain is coming. Now I think the weather is difficult to predict, because they predict the actual weather percentage is not as high as I thought. They use weather forecasts to predict it, but it not always accurate, it takes a lot of time and they need to research to predict the weather and a little mistake will change the weather.

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I used to think meteorologists just guess the weather it’s rainy or sunny. Now I think meteorologist uses tools to predict the weather, such as satellite, radar, and surface maps to predict the weather, it can show the high and low pressure. Butterfly effect is butterfly flapping their wings and it may cause one state changes the weather. A butterfly flapped their wings it can make a storm.  Also, they only have one or two weeks of the weather predict, it’s because weather is hard to predict.

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I used to think that it barely took any effort or time to predict the weather and that we could predict the weather by simply looking up at clouds. I used to think that forecasting weather was easy and simple. I did not know that it required numerous calculations, immense investigation and a lot of effort to even get close to predicting the weather.

Now I think that forecasting weather would be difficult and would require a lot of patience and studying. To be able to predict the weather, we would also need to know what are the different kinds of fronts, ways that a specific type of weather would form, and the two different types of rain and how to predict them. Frontal rain is easier to predict than Convective rain as frontal rain happens when a cold front lifts a warm front. A Convective rain prediction is harder to predict as it requires a lot of calculations and investigation. Whatever the forecasters predict could also go wrong due to the butterfly effect. The butterfly effect is when something small happens which changes everything or when a butterfly flaps it’s wings and starts a tornado. This is the very definition of chaos.forecast the weather, we would need a lot of concentration and calculations as if even one thing went wrong, perhaps the whole forecast would be wrong. This relates to the butterfly effect- one small thing could cause chaos and change everything

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I used to think that weather is easy to predict. I thought that we can know about the weather by just guessing or look up the sky and clouds to know if it's going to rain or not. I thought it's a very simple thing that every one could do it easily.

Now I know that it's actually extremely hard to predict weather, the weather changes a lot because of the butterfly effect. The wind that made by a butterfly's wings flipping could easily cause a strong tornado in taxes. Weather predicting is not as simple as only looking at the sky and clouds, it needs to do lots of calculating and analysis from the information to predict weather. The weather is going to change even there is only a little thing happened.

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I used to think that weather forecasting is a very easy thing and I'm confused why the weather forecasters had so many incorrect informations. I used to think if the weather forecasters are just guessing what it would be like.

Now I know that weather forecasting needs a huge work, there are many wrong informations because there are a variety of factors, weatherforecasting is chaos. Even if a small factor may effect the whole weather forecasting to inaccurate, for example, the butterfly effect, if a butterfly flapped its wings, it may create inaccurate informations. Additionally, there are extremely many different types of weathers, so it's very hard to know the special type of the weather, different kind of rains, and fronts,this made weather forecasting even more difficult. Also, weather forecasting may need many equipments such as satelites and more. Therefore, predicting the weather is a difficult and complicated work.

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I used to think that weathers could be predicted by simply just looking up in the skies, and observing the color of the clouds. Also, I thought that all weather forecasts would be a 100% correct because I thought it took barely any time to predict them.

Now I think, predicting weather is extremely difficult. I learned that it requires multiple programs and machines to be run at once to even have a chance to predict weather. Also weather forecasts aren’t really that correct due to most of the rains being convection. Meteorologists needs to know how hot the ground is how many water vapors are there to know convection rain. I learned that meteorologists usually can’t predict those kind of weathers that I mentioned, even if they use a machine they will have no idea what the radius of the weather is. One more thing I learned was the butterfly effect if a butterfly flaps it’s wings it will create a storm that will affect multiple areas. Which means smaller things can cause chaos.

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I used to think that the weather forecasters used huge scientific technologies or machineries on Earth that predicts the weather. Now I know that there is machines outside of Earth like satellites and technologies inside of Earth like weather dishes. Weather dishes help meteorologists detect warm and cold fronts to predict the weather at a certain place, satellites send down messages of what it sees in space to meteorologists so that they can predict the weather and make us the weather forecasts.

Weather prediction is a challenging task due to various factors that make the Earth's atmosphere a complex and dynamic system. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere, known as chaos theory, means that small initial differences can lead to significant variations in weather outcomes over time. This sensitivity to initial conditions, often referred to as the "butterfly effect," poses a challenge for long-term weather forecasting.

Additionally, the atmosphere is influenced by a multitude of interconnected factors such as temperature, pressure, humidity, wind patterns, and more. The interactions between these variables create a complex web of atmospheric processes that are difficult to model accurately. Weather forecasting models rely on mathematical equations to simulate these processes, but simplifications and assumptions introduce uncertainties into the predictions.

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I used to think that weather forecasts were really easy for predicting because I can see the weather just outside (clouds and humidity) or my phone (checking the weather in a few days) so I can tell everyone the weather in the next several minutes or hours.

Now I think the weather forecasts are not that accurate because forecasting a weather is a complicated process when meteorologists need to use satellites and check fronts to give predictions on the news. Sometimes a 5-day weather forecast isn’t that accurate even though the accuracy is 90%. Also now I know that sometimes weather forecasts can’t be that accurate because it has a chaos theory, or the butterfly effect, which before the meteorologist said that there should be sunny weather expected, but then something happened to cause a cold front approach and brought either heavy precipitation (cold front) or showers (warm front) to the city or town.

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I used to think that predicting weather is a easy thing to do. I thought the weather predicting AI automatically showed the results, which are 85% accurate of what kind of weather it will be in the last 2 days. Moreover, because I had this kind of opinion, I thought weather forecasters and meteorologists were an easy job to get. However, it was not.Now I think forecasting weather is a difficult and hard thing to do. I didn't know that one needs to put a lot of effort to find an accurate result of the weather. It is extremely hard to predict the weather. For example, convection rain, which occurs when the sun heats the ground and causes the air to become warm, then rises up and becomes cool, is very difficult to predict. The amount of heat and

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I use to think weather prediction is easy and the forecasters just took a look at the map and front and was able to tell the weather on the spot and all weather was predict able and the un-predicted weather was a sudden change in weather that was unexpected. I also thought that big storms and rain were just huge clouds raining from the sky and the atmosphere can’t hold it anymore, and the wind was formed before hand.

Now I think, weather prediction is extremely hard and that it took a lot of effort and there are really hard to predict weather, that consists of heating up the ground and in to the sky, the butterfly witch is a sub for chaos caused all that crazy rain and typhoons and winds and it was not just big clouds, and predicting the weather could only be seven days as after the seven days it has a night chance of inaccuracy.

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I used to think that weather prediction is very simple, I thought that you just have to look at the sky, and if there is a lot of cloud, if there is there will be rain.

Now I think that prediting weather is really hard, there are a lot of factors in our life, and a tiny amout of wind can mix into the rain, so it will be really hard. The wind and the rain can form into a lot of different kinds.

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I used to think that meteorologists had like huge machines and put it outside to predict weather. Like for example, using satellites from space to look down on us, so we can see what weather is happening and what could happen next. I knew it would be 60% accurate for every forecast. I thought Weather dishes like detect the clouds, to see if it’s heavy rain or light rain.

Now I think that detecting weather is in fact really difficult to predict. I learned that weather shows chaotic behavior, which means the smallest changes can become a different weather. That makes it hard for the weather forecasters and meteorologists to predict weather. Accurately predicting the time and place the weather will be is another challenge for them, for it’s hard to be accurate for weather. It is also difficult to accurately predict or measure the model and forecast, there is only a 50/50 chance of it being correct.

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I used to think that the accuracy of predicting the weather was extremely high—nearly 100%. I also think that the prediction of the weather won’t be hard work for a meteorologist, so when I checked the weather and walked through the door, the differences shocked me, and I was straight-forwardly confused.

Now I think, the prediction of weather isn’t just how simple that I used to think about it. For instance the Frontal rain and Convective rain the frontal rain is easy to predict but the convective rain isn’t the same with frontal rain and this is because of the small things affect it which is also known as chaos theory. The result of prediction could change easily, because on earth everything changes daily. A theory that could support this is called the “Chaos Theory” and because weather is a chaotic system therefore the prediction for weather could be hard and confusing. Just like what Edward N. Lorenz have mentioned about the Chaos Theory, “Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?" which reflects how small things changes and affects different places.

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I used to think, meteorologists look at the sky and predict the weather. And I thought it was easy.

Now I think, it’s not just easy thing. I didn’t know that they have to do many works. The atmosphere is changing all the time and we can’t collect data from the future. And if they predict with satellite or other tools, it’s not accurate so they have to study hard.

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12 AB, Allan

I used to think that the what ever the meteorology predict it is right, and it is super easy to predict. You just have to know where is the wind blowing and what is the temperature.

But later I know that only frontal rain is easy to predict. Not like convection rain it is much harder to predict. It form by when the one place of the ground got warmer, and it raises to the air then causing water vapor to rain. Because it is hard to predict what is the temperature, how high will it raise, how much water vapor contain, and how long will it stay. The main factor that cause hard to predict water is butterfly effect, it means a small change might totally change the answer. Ludvig Lorenz find this effect. In 1973 he was trying to predict the weather he did two sets of data he accidentally round a number to the nearest tenth place, then he found out that the result is changing bigger and bigger.

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I used to think predicting weather is just look at the sky and the winds. And see the color of the sky, and I thought the butterfly effect is that a little butterfly flapping its wing and causing a big tornado. But now I know that the predicting the weather is using many technology and comparing to know what is the weather. But from now the technology of predicting the weather is getting better and better. The butterfly effect is telling us that a small event can turn into a big event.

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I used to think that every upcoming weathers, such as heavy rains, are easy for meteorologists to track and to predict, and I have also thought there was also one kind of rain, the long, durable gray sky rain, and animals can predict about the weathers too, such as flying away or running away, and meteorologists check the weather by sending questions to the satellite on the space to tell them what is the weather alike on earth.

Now I think that rains hard to predict and meteorologists made mistakes in weather forecasting after watching some videos about why are weathers difficult to predict. I have learnt about some of the rains are hard to predict on small scales, and butterfly effect can cause chaos in the weather and around the city, and it is hard to identify the weather by it.

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I used to think there will be a lot scientists in a science lab discussing about the date and calculate every second whether water evaporates or droplets fall, and I also used to think that scientists will use things like thermometers to predict the future weather.

But after I watch the video I knew the scientists cannot predict perfectly accurate, because it is impossible to map every molecule and their trajectory in the atmosphere. Based on that, I understand weather is hard to predict, because even a tiny movement of wind can change the weather, so the weather report cannot be 100% accurate. That also remind me butterfly effect, means a little action can cause huge changes. The weather is a example of butterfly effect.

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I used to think that weather predictions are easy to get right. I thought that just by some machines and technology we have an accurate prediction for the next month, that is rarely incorrect. And when it was incorrect, I would be irritated, as if why couldn’t meteorologists write proper information if they are scientist.

Now I think that it makes sense for the prognostic to sometimes be false, since it’s more of an educated guess rather than an actual detailed prediction. Machines such as satellites or weather radars predict the pressure, temperature, and humidity. And only after a serious amount of calculations, meteorologists get a more or less accurate result. If we also contribute to the Chaos Effect, we could see how uneasy it is to know what the weather will be in a few days. Somethings as gentle as a butterfly’s wing can accelerate to a storm. A small movement of air could contribute a lot to the system and break any prediction. Now, I hold no anger for scientists, as the job they are doing is visibly exhausting.

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I used to think that weather reports are around 90% correct because there are techniques to detect. However, the truth is that only 40% of the weather can be predicted.

40% of the weather is frontal weather. They can be predicted because its forming progress is steady. However, the other 60% of the weather is convective weather and they formed irregularly. It is hard to predict the weather because there were many variables in it, and these variables were hard to find, such as the small warm air masses on the ground. These variables caused the difficulty to predict the weather. I learned that small things can also affect the outcome such as a butterfly can cause a hurrican in Texas

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I used to think the weather can not be touch or seen, it is far from us. So it is hard to predict. The weather can change very quickly, some factors may affect the weather, like forest fire and volcano eruption. Because there are many factors can affect the weather, we can not make sure that all the details are captured.

Now, I think there are 6 reasons to make the weather hard to predict: 1 we should know how warm the ground will be. 2 we should know that how far up the hot air will rise. 3 we should know how much water vapor the are holds. 4 we should predict how long the water on air will stay. 5 Chaos Theory. 6 The Perfection is impossible. We can not measure all the factors that affect weather, and accuracy is limited.

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I used to think that they have to see and study with clouds or sky. Or I thought they use the predictable machines to guess the weather. Also I believed that it's pretty easy to predict the weather.
However, now I knew it's actually takes lot of work to predict and forecast to people. Since we can't get any data from the future,  models have to use estimates and assumptions to predict future weather. Because the atmosphere changing by global wind all the time, it's hard to expect the weather. One of the reasons that makes it difficult to predict the weather is the butterfly effect. Butterfly effect is basically about small thing can bring major changes. I mean butterfly's flipping can make tornadoes or strong storm. Because of that, weather forecasting is not 100%  accurate. And hard to predict.

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I used to think that it isn’t hard to predict weather, I thought they had a screen that will tell them the weather.

Now I know that it is hard to predict weather. You can easily predict frontal rain, but convective rain is not. Convective rain can suddenly appear. It is hard to find the amount of rain, where is the rain, and how long it will last. Also something small like a butterfly can ruin the data.

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I used to think that predicting weather was easy. All they have to do is look at the map or the sky and get the information what will the weather be on an accuracy 80-90%.

Now I know that when meteorologist trying to predict the weather, they need to put many work in there and effort. Because even a tiny of wind can effect the weather and effect the accuracy of getting the weather. For example, the butterfly effect, if a butterfly flapped its wings, this may effect the accuracy of getting the correct weather. Another reason it hard to predict is because of convective rain, convective rain is formed when heat from the ground warms up a small masses of air, which then rises and cools, causing the water vapor in it to condense and fall to the ground. Because convective rain is triggered by heat from small patch of ground this cause it hard to know how warm various parts of the ground will be at a particular time, whether will the heat be enough to life a particular mass of air to a particular height or how much water vapor that particular mass of air hold and how long that particular mass of air will stay over that particular path of warm ground. These four reason all made convective rain hard to predict.

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I used to think that predicting weather was very easy, like checking up the sky or check the clouds if they were wet. I also used to think that forecasters and meteorologists were always right.

Now i think it’s really hard to predict the weather. Because we can’t really predict what’s going to happen in the future. And i realized how much time, efforts, money and programs we should use to predict the weather and it’s not even 100percent accurate. There is really lots of factors in our life and tiny warm air can mix into rain so it’s difficult to predict and butterfly effect can ruin the data, and this means small major things can effect the data.

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I use to think predicting weather is just looking at the sky to know what is the weather when I am small, when the sky is cloudy, it might rain. When the sun is shiny, it might be hot. I thought it was easy to predict the weather.

But now, I knew that predicting weather is a hard thing. The weather is unpredictable because it changes every minute every second. Meteorologists use many tools to predict the weather. For example, they have to use the satellite data in accurate weather forecasting, providing high-quality, timely information about conditions around the globe. They also have to use AWIPS to generates weather graphics and hazardous weather watches and warnings. They have to use lot of tools to predict the weather, so this is why the weather is so hard to predict.

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I used to think the news reporter was the ones that would guess out the weather by looking out at the window and report it to the forecasters, before I knew anything about meteorologist. I actually believed that the weather forecast will always be right not until onetime, I was listening to the forecast and looking the window at the same time. The forecast said it was gonna rain in Shenzhen before 12P.M, but it was already 1P.M and it hasn't rain yet.

Now I think it is takes quite a work to 100% guess out the weather without any mistaking on the humidity, pressure, wind etc. Because now I know that they would have to use a lot of machines and our satellite just to predict the weather, but not 100% fully correctly. Especially when it comes to the butterfly effect, it causes a chaos on guessing the weather since it is like a butterfly flapping it's wings and it can cause a heavy storm. Fronts, pressure, heat, humidity, these kinds of elements were the things the forecasters can't miss when predicting the weather.

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I used to think that it is easy to predict the weather. I thought that meteorologists predict the weather by just looking at the sky, or just feeling the humidity to guess whether there would be rain or not. And i thought that the weather forecasts are a hundred percent correct.

Now i think that predicting the weather is not easy, and i know that meteorologists use tools to learn the patterns. I also know that you would need to learn a lot of things before predicting the weather. I also know that there are a lot of ways that the weather can change, which means that the weather forecast might not be a hundred percent correct.

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I used to think the weather forecast only needed a weather forecaster to look at the sky and take note for the number and side of clouds and the speed of winds to get the basic information, then put the information in some mathematical formula to get the weather information of later week. Also, this way can be nearly 98% right and can predict most of the weather.

Now I think the weather prediction is not an easy thing. There are many things that will affect the weather, and most of them are hard to get information. Any small difference will cause entirely different weather. Although nowadays Meteorologists and the weather forecasters have many machines and ways to get the information of weather data, the weather is still hard to predict.

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I used to think the weather forecast only needed a weather forecaster to look at the sky and take note for the number and side of clouds and the speed of winds to get the basic information, then put the information in some mathematical formula to get the weather information of later week. Also, this way can be nearly 98% right and can predict most of the weather.

Now I think the weather prediction is not an easy thing. There are many things that will affect the weather, and most of them are hard to get information. Any small difference will cause entirely different weather. Although nowadays Meteorologists and the weather forecasters have many machines and ways to get the information of weather data, the weather is still hard to predict.

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I used to think that the meteorologists predict the weather by just looking at the sky or looking at the Earth in the outer space. And it is Easy to predict.

Now i think that predicting the weather is not that easy. They will need a lot of coculations and the predict maybe will have some mistakes. For example, the butterfly effect, if one of the butterfly flaps its wings, it might affect the weather. The little affects could change the weather.

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Before I watched video, I used to think that predict weather is easy to do. Because I thought they use technological machines to predict weather. So, I think it's quite easy to do. In addition, they had many experiences with predict weather. After I watched video, I knew that it's required much more efforts. The reason that the weather always changing. Also, meteorologists need to track various condition like in one moment. They need to study hard for predict weather and calculate timings. There is butterfly effect can change original data and it also occur tornadoes or storm. It shows that how does butterfly effect strong. It tells that small effect can cause huge tragedy.

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I used to think the weather forecast only needed a weather forecaster to look at the sky and take note for the number and side of clouds and the speed of winds to get the basic information, then put the information in some mathematical formula to get the weather information of later week. Also, this way can be nearly 98% right and can predict most of the weather.

Now I think the weather prediction is not an easy thing. There are many things that will affect the weather, and most of them are hard to get information. Any small difference will cause entirely different weather. Although nowadays Meteorologists and the weather forecasters have many machines and ways to get the information of weather data, the weather is still hard to predict.

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I used to think that wether forecasting is very easy to predict, just look up at the sky and observe the cloud. If there are a lot of clouds and big wind it might rain. If it’s very dry, then it might be hot.

Now I think weather is super hard to predict. Meteorologist can’t plot out every molecule in the atmosphere. Butterfly effect will also affect the weather. If a butterfly flaps its wings, the weather might have a big change. So, it is hard for meteorologists to predict the weather 100% correctly.

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I used to think that is simple to predict the weather meteorologists just need to look at the sky

now I think that its hard to predict weather and meteorologists need to put a lot of work on that because even small changes can lead to huge differences in outcomes also the accuracy of weather forecasts is challenged by the complexity of the climate system. The atmosphere is composed of many variables and factors, such as pressure, humidity, temperature, wind direction, and wind speed. These variables interact with each other making weather patterns very complex and difficult to predict

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I used to think that it's easy for people to predict what the weather is going to be like. I used to think that the way to predict every kind of weather is the same, and I also did not know that predicting the forecasting weather is that difficult for the meteorologists. I did not know that for predicting forecasting weather needs a lot of processes of investigation and calculations.

Now I think that it's really complicated for meteorologists to predict weather, because many things will effect the weather, it is hard to predict what is the weather going to be like for the rest of the week. Weathers are changing every time. I bet you have seen a sunny day right? Did you ever seen in sunny day and it just suddenly rains? It's normal for weathers, and that's the point of why it's hard for meteorologists to predict weathers. meteorologists have to investigate the temperature of today, the moisture content, detection with radar, and many other processes for predicting the weather. Sometimes when you want to see what the weather is going to be like for the next two days, when it passes two days you might find out that it's not 100% accurate. That's because of the strange, diversity weather.

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I used to think that predicting the weather would be simple and it would just be determined by looking at the color of the sky. However after watching the video i learned that there are two types of rain.Frontal rain is 40% of the rain we experience and is easy to predict. It is caused when cold wind runs into the warm one which lifts the warm wind up.The warm air quickly cools off and vaporize causing little droplets, which is rain. These fronts are large and easy to detect by radar systems which can help weather forecasters to accurately forecast to the world. The majority of the rain we predict is a process called convection, or convective rain. This happens when heat from the ground warms up a small mass of air which then rises and cools causing the water to vaporize and become rain. Because convective rain is triggered from a small patch of heat from the ground its much more complicated and hard to detect as it is hard to know how warm various parts of the ground will be at a particular time and other reasons as well.

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I used to think that weather is easy to predict. I think that we can just look up at the sky to know if it's raining or not, or look at the dragonfly flying up or down then we will know about the weather direction.

Now I know that it is extremely hard to predict the weather, the butterfly effect always changes a lot. a small wind made by a little thing would cause many disasters to happen, it not just easy like looking up at the sky, it need a lot of calculating of the information to predict weather.

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I used to think all why can’t all the thing that we invent predict the criteria weather? How can the weather so erratic? Butterflies flap their wing it will cause storm or typhoon I use to think it was wrong.

Now I think in two initial conditions some very little changes will affect weather. Additionally nothing will be 100% accurate including collected data.

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I used to think predicting weather is just people watching the clouds from the satellites and using thermometer to detect the temperature and create a weather forecasting.

Now I know that predicting the weather is very hard. Even one single wrong calculation could cause a huge difference. I also learned that there's two types of rain, frontal rain is one of them. Frontal rain is the rain that we experience 40% of the time when there's a rain. This kind of rain is very reliable and easy to predict. The other kind of rain occurs because of man made heat, so it's very hard to predict.

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Before I think they just predict the weather by looking at the sky because if there is rain the cloud will turn gray, or they have a screen that tell then the weather.

Now I know that it is hard to predict weather. They can predict frontal rain easily but convective is not easy to predict. convective rain can appear any time. They don't know how long will it rain and how big will the rain be so it is hard to predict.