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1. The deep relationship that connects human beings and nature:

"Subskin" simultaneously expresses a closer contact between humans and nature - not plundering, but coexisting with nature beneath the skin. We no longer pursue an exquisite appearance, but embrace the original and true existence.

2. It symbolizes the rediscovery of hidden resources:

In extreme or apocalyptic Settings, traditional food sources may disappear. Subskin represents our courage and wisdom in seeking resources "beneath the surface". For instance, using the skin shed by lizards, the shells shed by crabs, and the internal organs spat out by sea cucumbers, etc., does not harm life, but discovers the overlooked nutrients and values.

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Protect animals to maintain ecological balance, build a planet without indiscriminate killing.

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A 5-pound discount coupon. This coupon can be used to purchase any product of subskin

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I find that they have a positive side towards the end of the world. They worry about whether they can afford food

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Recent reports on the application of air-drying technology in the production of jerky cover information on traditional techniques, modern technological innovations, and food safety. From this research, I learned that I could also make a package for dried meat slices, because dried meat is as easy to store as canned meat, providing convenience for people in the end times.

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How Jerky is Made: Inside Rickey’s Jerky Craftsmanship

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How Jerky is Made: Inside Rickey’s Jerky Craftsmanship Jerky, the art of drying meat for preservation and flavor, is an ancient technique still beloved today. At Rickey’s Jerky, we honor tradition with a focus on premium quality and distinctive flavor profiles. The History of Jerky Drying meat to preserve it has been p

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I drew three related animals in a retro style on procreate

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On the end of the world, public transportation has been discontinued, so this poster will not be posted at subway or bus stops. The only safe Posting place I can think of is the shelter.

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I wanted to find some mockup with futuristic elements, but I couldn't find them. So I posted the photos on the white wall

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This is the promotional poster of the canned food

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I showed my poster design to the tutor. He thought it would be best if my poster was different from the previous packaging style because my packaging style was very simple and I needed to break away from this style. I referred to some retro-style posters. I want the most specific collage-style poster

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I reselected brighter colors and added the ingredient list and barcode at the same time

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The tutor gave her opinion during the tutorial. She thought the packaging was too retro and the color didn't look like a food brand.

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This is the deduction process of the new logo.

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This was the initial logo, but during the tutorial with tutor, she pointed out that the design of this logo was very simple. Moreover, it is too retro. What they want to see is a combination of retro elements and future elements, so as to attract the audience.

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These colors are derived from the retro-style posters. I made some modifications to the original colors to make them look brighter. Bright colors can also give people in the end times a kind of hope

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This is a recent report on the application of air-drying technology in the production of jerky, covering information on traditional techniques, modern technological innovations, and food safety. I want to make a package for air-dried slices because I find that air-dried food is as easy to store as canned food, which brings a lot of convenience to people in the end times

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How Jerky is Made: Inside Rickey’s Jerky Craftsmanship

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How Jerky is Made: Inside Rickey’s Jerky Craftsmanship Jerky, the art of drying meat for preservation and flavor, is an ancient technique still beloved today. At Rickey’s Jerky, we honor tradition with a focus on premium quality and distinctive flavor profiles. The History of Jerky Drying meat to preserve it has been p

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I referred to the poster in collage style

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Sea cucumbers protrude and regenerate their internal organs

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Sea cucumbers protrude and regenerate their internal organs

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Sea cucumbers possess a remarkable defense mechanism known as evisceration, wherein they expel their internal organs—such as intestines, respiratory trees, and gonads—through the mouth or anus to deter predators. This process is not fatal; they can regenerate the lost organs over time.

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The morphology of autotomy structures in the sea cucumber Eupentacta quinqesemita before and during evisceration

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Neurosecretory-like processes containing large dense vesicles and axons were present in the connective tissue layers of the autotomy structures in association with extracellular matrix, muscles and neurons. These neuronal elements remained largely

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Crabs are crustaceans that grow by molting their shells. Because their exoskeletons cannot expand, crabs must regularly shed their old shells to form new ones. For instance, blue crabs molt multiple times during their growth, especially in spring and summer. The warm water temperature triggers their reproduction and molting processes.

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Mud Crab Molting Process: A Detailed Guide

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“Discover the fascinating molting process of mud crabs! 🦀✨ From shedding their old exoskeleton to growing new ones, learn how these incredible creatures grow and adapt. #MudCrab #Molting #MarineBiology #Crustaceans”

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Eat the internal organs of sea cucumbers

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Eat the internal organs of sea cucumbers

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In Samoa, the internal organs of certain sea cucumber species are harvested. These internal organs are eaten raw or preserved, and these animals are often released back into the sea to allow them to regenerate.

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In some countries and regions, people eat the shells of crabs. For instance, in Catania, Sicily, Italy, chefs have included the invasive Atlantic blue crab on the menu and prepared dishes such as sushi rice and vegetables, attempting to change the locals' perception of these crabs.

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Lizards regularly change their skin through the ecdysis process, which is crucial for their growth and health. Young lizards, due to their rapid growth, usually molt every 4 to 6 weeks, while adult lizards molt 3 to 4 times a year. Molting helps remove parasites and old, damaged skin, keeping the skin healthy.

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Snake Skin Shedding: Why do snakes shed their skin? Here’s the science behind it | - Times of India

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Trending News: Snakes regularly shed their skin. This process is called ecdysis. Younger snakes shed more often. Bluish eyes and reduced activity signal shedding. Sn

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Through research, I found that lizards shed their skins regularly, crabs shed their shells regularly, and sea cucumbers spit out their internal organs regularly. So I want to create a food brand for the doomsday humans. This brand will take these "renewable biological parts" as the core raw materials to develop sustainable food that can be obtained without slaughtering animals. Against the backdrop of an apocalyptic world where resources are extremely scarce and ecosystems are on the verge of collapse, this circular and low-harm way of obtaining food not only meets human survival needs but also demonstrates respect for the natural ecosystem and a spirit of symbiosis. The brand aims to inspire people to rethink the relationship between humans and nature and seek ways to survive gently even on the verge of destruction.

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In some cultures, lizards are regarded as a source of food. For example, in some tribes in India, Nepal, the Philippines, Australia, South Africa and West Africa, lizard meat is used as a source of supplementary protein. In Vietnam and Thailand, lizard meat and eggs are regarded as delicacies.

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On Java, This Lizard’s Meat Is a Meal and a Medicine

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Diners turn to the water monitor for savory satay and an immunity boost.

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ome of these are the logos that I saw in the university library. These are all logos with a Retro style. I will refer to these to create a brand-new logo for someone. What I want to design is a logo in the Retro futurism style. Since this is a brand designed for future people, this logo cannot be designed too retro. I want to add some modern or future elements

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The visual system of Subskin is not only a tool for brand communication but also a part of the post-apocalyptic worldview. The retro style is full of absurdity and criticism. This style gives people a sense of grey humor, while the critics say that people are the ones who cause the doomsday. Bright colors can also stimulate the purchasing desire of future humans.

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At first, I intended to refer to this simple brand style. However, after conducting research, I found that this style was too monotonous and couldn't attract people in the future

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Food Standards Australia New Zealand said that canned food can be stored for a long time even at room temperature when the containers are intact. Some canned foods have a shelf life of more than two years and even do not need to be labeled with a "best before date".

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Canned foods: purchasing and storing | Food Standards Australia New Zealand

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The airtight sealing of foods in containers in association with heat and/or chemical treatments is a very effective method of preserving food. Foods such as fruit, vegetables, meat, fish, or a combination of these foods (e.g. meat and vegetable condensed soup, sauces and fruit salad) can be stored safely in airtight sealed containers.

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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) points out that as long as canned food remains sealed and undamaged, it is still safe to eat even after the indicated "best before date". Highly acidic foods (such as tomatoes and fruits) can be preserved for 12 to 18 months in their best condition. Low-acid foods (such as meat and vegetables) can be preserved for 2 to 5 years.

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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) points out that as long as canned food remains sealed and undamaged, it is still safe to eat even after the indicated "best before date". Highly acidic foods (such as tomatoes and fruits) can be preserved for 12 to 18 months in their best condition. Low-acid foods (such as meat and vegetables) can be preserved for 2 to 5 years.

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Before You Toss Food, Wait. Check It Out!

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It’s happened to all of us: you’re looking for something in the freezer or pantry, and discover food that has been forgotten. Your first impulse is to throw it out, but wait! Is it still good? Chances are it is!

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Almost 300m people at risk of death through starvation – report

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Aid cuts, conflict, climate and economic shocks contribute to sixth consecutive rise in numbers facing ‘high levels of food insecurity’

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Canned food, due to its sealing property and high-temperature sterilization treatment, has an extremely long shelf life and is an ideal choice for post-apocalyptic survival and long-term storage.

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Retrofuturism is an art and design style that combines the imagination of the future from past eras with contemporary aesthetics. It creates a unique aesthetic that is both nostalgic and forward-looking by combining visual elements from historical periods with future technologies. This style is commonly seen in fields such as literature, film, architecture and fashion, reflecting people's expectations for the future and their nostalgia for the past.

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Explore systematic approaches to identify and classify food waste, and formulate sustainable management strategies to minimize environmental impact and enhance social and economic benefits.

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A Methodology for Sustainable Management of Food Waste - Waste and Biomass Valorization

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As much as one-third of the food intentionally grown for human consumption is never consumed and is therefore wasted, with significant environmental, social and economic ramifications. An increasing number of publications in this area currently consider different aspects of this critical issue, and generally focus on proactive approaches to reduce food waste, or reactive solutions for more efficient waste management. In this context, this paper takes a holistic approach with the aim of achieving a better understanding of the different types of food waste, and using this knowledge to support informed decisions for more sustainable management of food waste. With this aim, existing food waste categorizations are reviewed and their usefulness are analysed. A systematic methodology to identify types of food waste through a nine-stage categorization is used in conjunction with a version of the waste hierarchy applied to food products. For each type of food waste characterized, a set of waste management alternatives are suggested in order to minimize environmental impacts and maximize social and economic benefits. This decision-support process is demonstrated for two case studies from the UK food manufacturing sector. As a result, types of food waste which could be managed in a more sustainable manner are identified and recommendations are given. The applicability of the categorisation process for industrial food waste management is discussed.

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Sustainable food systems and resource reuse

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Sustainable food systems and resource reuse

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How do different methods assess the sustainability or resilience of food systems to identify and improve the weak links in the systems

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I find that in the future, more and more people will lack food. So for this project, I want to do a wasteland design, with the timeline being the next 3025 years. In this year, food shortage became a fatal problem. People fought for food resources in the future, leading to the end of the world.

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ReutersMay 16, 202511:51 AM UTCUpdated 3 days ago

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Conflict and climate drive record global hunger in 2024, UN says

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Acute food insecurity and child malnutrition rose for a sixth consecutive year in 2024, affecting more than 295 million people across 53 countries and territories, according to a U.N. report released on Friday.

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Retrofuturism (adjective retrofuturistic or retrofuture) is a movement in the creative arts showing the influence of depictions of the future produced in an earlier era. If futurism is sometimes called a "science" bent on anticipating what will come, retrofuturism is the remembering of that anticipation. Characterized by a blend of old-fashioned "retro styles" with futuristic technology, retrofuturism explores the themes of tension between past and future, and between the alienating and empowering effects of technology. Primarily reflected in artistic creations and modified technologies that realize the imagined artifacts of its parallel reality, retrofuturism can be seen as "an animating perspective on the world".

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Referring to the two post-apocalyptic wasteland design films, "Dune" and "Mad Max", I found that they are both full of retro and punk elements. This integration not only shapes a unique visual aesthetic, but also reflects the survival wisdom and rebellious spirit of human beings in extreme environments. The "Dune" film series integrates the aesthetic concepts of retro-futurism, presenting a universe that is both ancient and futuristic. The "Mad Max" film series, with its unique post-apocalyptic punk style, presents a world of scarce resources and collapsed order. I want to refer to these two movies to create a retro-style packaging design with a post-apocalyptic theme, because retro elements can evoke people's beautiful memories of the past and evoke nostalgic feelings. When facing a rapidly changing and uncertain future, this emotional connection provides psychological comfort and a sense of familiarity. Integrating a retro style into the design helps to establish a deeper emotional connection with the audience.

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From cutting-edge toy stores and action-packed movies to out-there fashion, retrofuturism is everywhere you look. But what exactly is it? And given the genre includes grim steampunk, cheerful space-age fantasies and a whole heap in between, where should designers and product owners start? Here, we cover the history, the features and the most important varieties of retrofuturism and offer plenty of inspiration for how to use it in your designs.

What is retrofuturism?
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A few months ago, the city of Xi'an-the Chinese starting point of the ancient Silk Road and the resting place of the Terracotta Army-a luxurious new toy store opened to an excited fanfare. The theme of its minimalist, industrial interior? The airship, a great flying inflatable that had its heyday almost a century ago. But why would a futuristic space theme itself around a technology that's virtually obsolete?

There's a one-word answer to that: retrofuturism. Officially, retrofuturism is "the use of a style or aesthetic considered futuristic in an earlier era." That can mean people in the past looking forward, but it can also mean us going back, and imagining a mix of modern life with older features or ways of behaving.

Solar-powered zeppelins, chrome barstools and space-age diners all fit the bill. Marvel's visions of Asgard (Vikings in spaceships) are retrofuturist, but so is Niterói Contemporary Art Museum, a cultural-center-meets-flying-saucer above the beach on the outskirts of Rio de Janeiro. Still confused? Let's go back in time, to the beginnings of this playful, back-to-the-future trend.

When did retrofuturism start?
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According to some commentators, the term was coined in a 1967 book called Retro-Futurism, by TR Hinchcliffe. But, fittingly for a genre that mixes the real with the imaginary, there's very little evidence this book was ever actually written or published. The first reliable mention of retrofuturism comes in a 1983 New York Times advertisement for Bloomingdale's department store, which describes jewelry with "silverized steel and sleek grey linked for a retro-futuristic look".

But the trend was gestating long before we found the words for it in the 1980s. Futurism itself began in Italy in the early 1900s, as industrialization and urbanization were transforming our relationship with the world. It fetishized planes, cars and modern inventions, as well as values such as speed, technology and youth.

Models wear stark, angular 1966 outfits from Pierre Cardin and Jacques Heim via L'Officiel USA

As the twentieth century went on, we pushed the throttle even harder. Planes crossed oceans and rockets roared into space. Buildings rose higher and higher, and comic book superheroes still leaped over them. Highways, then malls, spread across much of the world, neon lights banished the dark and clothes were mass-produced from fabrics that hadn't existed a few decades before. Even the food got fast.

People, inevitably, sold products, made designs and told stories based on these changes. American poet Ezra Pound put it neatly in 1920, when he wrote, "The age demanded an image of its accelerated grimace."

From raygun gothic to steampunk: key retrofuturist designs
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Buildings, clothing, sci-fi books and films, art, advertisements and video games moved with the times, and looked forward in both hope and fear to what might come next. When we started looking back on those works, retrofuturism was born. The trend has taken many forms, but here are some of the key types:

Atomic Age: Nuclear weapons and nuclear power were two sides of the same coin. One killed hundreds of thousands in the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the other promised to power the world. This mix of optimism and dread fuels a great deal of retrofuturism. So-called "atompunk" features laboratories, espionage, great factories and classic cars. See: Metropolis, Dr Strangelove, the Fallout series, The Incredibles.

Space Age: Closely tied with the Atomic Age, the space age generally has a more optimistic feel, summed up both by real trips to the moon and the utopian exploration of Star Trek. An American-influenced culture of chewing gum, roadside diners, surfing teens, comic-book heroes and the beginnings of rock 'n' roll, plus dynamic modernist and art deco design, shaped the space-age look, which is sometimes called "raygun gothic". See: The Jetsons, Barbarella, Moonraker

Steampunk: the Wild West and Victorian London are popular settings for this mix of 19th-century tech and science fiction. Steam-powered machines, ornate difference engines (early computers), cogs, gears, burnished bronze and greatcoats are among its features. See: Wild Wild West, the League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, Hugo.

Cyberpunk: when it crash-landed in the 1980s, cyberpunk was arguably pure futurism. Its mix of dystopian settings, virtual reality, drugs and cyborgs came with a distinct look-leather, shades, surveillance cameras and neon lights-that now itself feels retro. See: The Neuromancer, The Matrix, Cyberpunk 2077.

Of course, retrofuturism doesn't stop there. Try watching the Flintstones (modern tech reimagined for the Stone Age, or stonepunk) or Star Wars (swords and princesses in space), or opening your ears to the mix of analog tools (cassettes, vintage synths) with modern R&B production used by artists such as the Weeknd. Some of our oldest stories are arguably retrofuturist-think of the legends of King Arthur, in which 12th-century poets added then-modern innovations (stirrups, chivalry, plate armor) to the myth of a 6th-century British war leader, shaping the way we see the legend to this day.

Why designers love retrofuturism today
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Now that we've seen how we got here, it seems reasonable to ask why. Retrofuturism's appeal is undoubtedly partly about kitsch. Nostalgia is a heady cocktail, and it's fun to look back at the visions of the future people once had. The results can be funny-like kooky robot butlers, pills that taste just like chicken or the belief that the moon might really be made of cheese. There's an opportunity for playful, imaginative humor here that will suit many brands.

Retrofuturism can also be stylish. Fashion in particular is known for its cyclical nature, in which looks fall out of favor then come back with a bang. Art, architecture and clothing constantly reshape the old to find a look that feels powerful today: retrofuturism just makes its classic influences obvious. As a designer, you might mix a Scuba mask and leg warmers because they look awesome, but also because they offer an image that you can play with: the outfit above references late 20th-century leisure trends and space-age optimism, but gives it an austere, almost dystopian modern twist.

We live in a world of climate change and digital addiction, not to mention inequalities and cruelties that stubbornly refuse to go away. The more optimistic end of retrofuturism conjures a time when people really thought that gleaming new buildings or nuclear fusion might take us closer to paradise.

Today's technology also offers plenty of opportunities, but when a transformation like the metaverse is right in front of us, it can look pretty scary. Retrofuturism can help us deal with that fear by presenting transformative technology in a safe, fictional space. But it also reminds us that change is something humans have been grappling with since our ancestors first sharpened a stick or fed a fire. Designers can use retrofuturism to remind consumers of the power of idealism, and make feel like they've found a safe harbor in the storm.

Getting the retrofuturist look
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So how can you bring retrofuturism into your designs? You might take your cues from templates such as steampunk or the space age. But you can also work in general retrofuturist features such as:

a focus on machines or technology

classic or vintage design features

a mix of historic and futuristic objects

a postmodern fusion of styles from different eras

smooth geometric shapes such as spheres and ovals

sharp, clean polygons

the vibrant colors, neon and shining chrome of new technology

the grime, dust and dirt of old machinery

As we can see, retrofuturism can have some contradictory features, with space-age shine contrasting with steampunk grime. But what these approaches have in common is tech, and it's a tech that has a very physical form. Retrofuturist art tends to focus on function, with great pistons, gears or thrusters and exaggerated lines that suggest movement. That's even true of cyberpunk, which tends to avoid wireless technology and instead give its technology solid form, via people equipped with robotic limbs, or cities that seem to squirm with cables. In an age that can seem increasingly virtual, retrofuturism offers something you can touch.

What this does for your brand

So how should brands use retrofuturism? As we've seen, it can look beautiful, but it's also hugely varied. Packaging that majors on space-age optimism will carry a different message to a noirish, steampunk vision. This freedom makes retrofuturism harder to define, but allows brands to build visuals that suit their products. There's plenty of inspiration online-check out the joyous parade of images on Reddit, see the highways of your dreams on Ferrovial or feast on Paleofuture 's wide-ranging analysis.

It can be worth matching different types of retrofuturism to your audience based on age: space age for the boomers, cyberpunk for gen Xers and so on. But retrofuturism's appeal is wider than that. These ideas and images have been reused by modern culture again and again, with Gen Z in particular known for their love of culture and products made long before their birth. Ultimately, retrofuturism is for anyone who's ever dreamed of what could be, or what might have been: you just need to find a vision that fits your brand and speaks to your target market.

How designers can use retrofuturism

Retrofuturism is a wide-ranging style that offers plenty of inspiration for brands and designers. Whether you follow one of the classic templates such as steampunk or raygun gothic, or work in more subtle touches that evoke past visions of the future, it can help you craft designs that will resonate with consumers. Retrofuturism is a compelling mix of optimism and pessimism, but at its heart it celebrates beautiful objects and human ingenuity. And what brand doesn't want to get on board with that?

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Back to the future: why retrofuturism is the look of our times - 99designs

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From cutting-edge toy stores and action-packed movies to out-there fashion, retrofuturism is everywhere you look. But what exactly is it? Including grim steampunk, cheerful space-age fantasies and a whole heap in between, we ask how to define the genre and look at exciting visual inspiration.

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The design style of the Dune series of films integrates retro-futurism, minimalism and epic architectural aesthetics, creating a visual world that is both ancient and futuristic. Director Denis Villeneuve and art director Patrice Vermette jointly constructed a visual universe full of deserts, religious symbols and colonial history.

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Retro-futurism is a design aesthetic that integrates the past and the future. It combines people's imagination of the future in the middle of the 20th century with contemporary design concepts, creating a visual style that is both nostalgic and avant-garde. This style is widely applied in fields such as architecture, fashion, film, music and interior design, reflecting humanity's fantasies about the future and nostalgia for the past.

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The ‘Dune: Part Two’ brutalist sci-fi aesthetic is sweeping fashion

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The film’s oppressive visuals of desolate deserts, strange planets and alien cultures may seem like an odd source of fashion inspiration, but the film’s flowing, retro-futuristic costume designs have already proven inspirational. The same is true of the avant-garde outfits worn by the movie’s cast on the red carpet. Fashion brands are embracing the aesthetic, both officially and unofficially, to capitalize on the excitement around the film’s premiere.

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The Wasteland Style in the movie Mad Max is a unique visual aesthetic that combines post-apocalyptic survivalism, retro punk style and pragmatic design. The wasteland style is not merely a visual style; It embodies the spirit of adaptation, rebellion and creation in adversity. By integrating these elements into the design, works that are both practical and expressive can be created, reflecting human survival wisdom and creativity in extreme environments.

I think the difference between "Mad Max" and other similar post-apocalyptic universe styles lies in the color scheme. Although there are some minor exceptions, most of "Mad Max" continues to use the colors that most frequently occur in nature and organic life, namely the warm tones of red, orange, yellow, green, brown, black and white.

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Wasteland style is a post-apocalyptic aesthetic that combines elements of punk, industry, retro and pragmatism, and is widely used in films, fashion, role-playing and festival events. This style emphasizes survival wisdom and creativity in extreme environments, reflecting the spirit of adaptation and rebellion of humanity in the wasteland world.

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Shop our exclusive collection of Mad Max movie posters at Film Art Gallery, with prices ranging from $150 to $1500. The post-apocalyptic world of George Miller’s 1979 action classic, starring Mel Gibson, is captured in these vintage posters. They reflect the raw energy and dystopian atmosphere of the film that launched

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When seeing reports about the extinction of the dodo, one of the main reasons is excessive hunting by humans to obtain their meat for consumption. When I learned about it, I was extremely shocked. It turns out that human activities can cause the extinction of animals.

I began to ponder: If one day the environment collapses and resources are exhausted, and it's humanity's turn to be on the verge of the end of the world, will we also head towards self-destruction due to excessive exploitation? In such an era, could humans still have safe food? Can you eat with peace of mind?

So I was inspired and wanted to design a food safety packaging for humanity in the "doomsday era". It not only needs to protect the edibility and nutrition of food in extreme environments, but also remind humans to reflect on the harm they have done to nature in the past. This packaging will not only be a container for storing food, but also a symbol: symbolizing humanity's struggle and reflection on the brink of resource depletion.

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The dodo (Raphus cucullatus) was a large, flightless bird that lived on the island of Mauritius in the Indian Ocean until its extinction in the late 17th century. The dodo was first discovered by Dutch sailors in 1598, and it was hunted to extinction less than 100 years later. But what exactly caused the demise of this unique bird that could not fly away from danger? There are several theories about what factors led to the dodo's rapid extinction after humans first set foot on Mauritius.

Overhunting by Humans

One of the main causes of the dodo's extinction was overhunting by humans. When Dutch sailors first arrived on Mauritius, the defenseless dodo was an easy source of meat. The sailors could simply walk up to the birds and club them to death. Dodos did not perceive humans as predators, so they did not run away or try to defend themselves. As more ships stopped at Mauritius to restock supplies on long voyages, dodos were ruthlessly hunted for their meat. Their large size and inability to fly made them easy targets. Sailors could quickly kill many dodos to feed their crews. Within just a few decades, the once abundant dodo population was nearly wiped out by overhunting.

Habitat Destruction

In addition to overhunting, human habitation of Mauritius also destroyed the dodo's natural habitat. The dodo lived in the tropical forests that covered Mauritius before humans arrived. When the Dutch established settlements on Mauritius, they started clearing forests to make room for towns, plantations, and agriculture. This destroyed the dodos' natural home and food sources. Deforestation reduced the population density of dodos by eliminating nesting sites and access to food. It made the remaining dodos more vulnerable by removing their forest shelter. Humans also introduced non-native animals to the island, such as pigs and macaque monkeys, which ate dodo eggs and further damaged their habitat. The destruction of their native Mauritian forest habitat left dodos more exposed to hunters and new predators.

Introduced Species

Pigs, monkeys, rats, and other animals introduced by humans also contributed to the dodo's demise. These new species on Mauritius disrupted the island's native ecosystem. They preyed on dodo eggs,competed for food sources, and damaged the forest habitat. With no natural defenses against these exotic predators,dodos were easy targets. Their nests were raided and eggs were consumed by monkeys, pigs, and rodents. Introduced herbivores such as deer and cattle depleted the dodos' food supply. And invasive predators like rats posed a constant threat to dodo eggs and hatchlings. The new species introduced by humans thus aided the dodo's march toward extinction.

Disease

It has also been hypothesized that new diseases brought by humans and their domesticated animals may have caused dodos to die off. When sailors arrived on Mauritius, they brought rats, pigs, and monkeys aboard their ships. These animals could have introduced foreign pathogens to Mauritius that the immunologically naive dodos had no ability to fight off. Diseases like influenza, smallpox, typhus, and fowl cholera could have spread from introduced animals to dodos. Populations weakened by habitat loss and overhunting would have been even more susceptible to novel infectious diseases. An epidemic may have swept through the remaining dodo population, causing mass mortality. Even diseases that the introduced animals were immune to could have been deadly to the dodos.

Slow Rate of Reproduction

Another factor that contributed to the dodo's extinction was its slow breeding rate. Dodos only laid one egg per clutch. They could not fly, so they nested on the ground where eggs were vulnerable. The dodo's low reproductive rate meant that it could not quickly recover from population declines. Even under natural conditions, it was limited by the slow pace of breeding. When confronted with habitat destruction, hunting, and introduced predators, the dodo's population could not increase fast enough to replace dying individuals. Its slow reproductive cycle amplified the effects of these threats. With only a single egg per year, it was difficult for dodo numbers to bounce back as they were rapidly killed off. Their naturally slow breeding became a fatal liability.

Nesting and Rearing Behaviors

The dodo's unique nesting and rearing behaviors also put it at a disadvantage. Dodos nested on the ground, which made eggs and hatchlings easy targets for predators. Parents did not guard or incubate the egg once it was laid. The male or female dodo would simply lay the egg in a shallow nest and abandon it. This odd behavior left eggs vulnerable to being eaten by animals and humans. Hatchlings were also not properly cared for. Young dodos grew very slowly, and were flightless like the adults. This meant juvenile dodos could not escape predators or flee areas of habitat destruction. The dodo's negligent nesting and rearing habits caused high mortality for eggs and hatchlings, reducing population growth.

Isolation and Lack of Fear

The dodo's 100,000 years of isolation on Mauritius also contributed to its rapid demise. Having evolved with no natural predators on the island, the dodo lost behaviors like fear, aggression, and predator avoidance. This made the dodo exceptionally vulnerable when humans first arrived. Not perceiving humans as a threat, dodos allowed themselves to be easily killed and nests to be raided. Their friendly nature and lack of fear ultimately accelerated their extinction. If dodos had maintained more natural defensive behaviors, they may have reacted to humans as predators and been able to survive longer. But their long isolation on remote Mauritius left them naive and utterly defenseless.

Tameness

Accounts from early sailors described dodos as being unusually tame. They did not react to human presence as most wild animals would. Having no experience with terrestrial predators, dodos had no fear of humans and would not flee or attack. Sailors could walk right up to dodos and grab them. This extreme tameness enabled humans to capture and kill dodos with little resistance. A tamer, more aggressive disposition may have given dodos a greater chance to survive initial contacts with humans. But their tameness only emboldened sailors to hunt them without difficulty.

No Flying Ability

The dodo's inability to fly also sealed its fate. Because Mauritius had no native ground predators, the dodo lost the ability to fly over generations of isolated evolution. When humans arrived, the flightless dodo had no way to escape. Its ponderous, flightless build was no match for speedy human hunters. And without wings, the dodo could not flee areas of habitat destruction or introduced predators. The adaptations of island life that made flight unnecessary doomed the dodo once new dangers arrived that it could not fly away from. If the dodo could fly, it may have been able to survive longer by escaping human activity or dispersing to new regions.

What if the Dodo Wasn't Extinct?

If not for the multiple threats caused by humans, the dodo may have survived on Mauritius into the modern era. Protection laws and active conservation efforts could have prevented its extinction. We can only speculate what the outcomes would have been if the dodo persisted. Tourism, scientific study, and ecosystem balance could have benefited. Tragically, the dodo was lost in less than a century due to the actions of careless humans. Its story serves as a cautionary tale about the fragility of island species when faced with foreign invaders. By understanding what doomed the dodo, perhaps we can prevent other extinction events and preserve endangered island wildlife. The dodo's sad demise should motivate us to be better stewards of the natural world.

Conclusion

The rapid extinction of the dodo within 100 years of encountering humans was the result of multiple factors. Overhunting for food and habitat destruction by human settlement dealt a severe population blow. Predation by invasive species and disease amplified the decline as the dodo had no natural defenses to these novel threats. The dodo's biology, including slow breeding, ground nesting, and lack of parental care, hampered its ability to recover. And its evolution in isolation left the dodo ecologically naive and vulnerable once humans arrived. The combination of human impacts and the dodo's inherent biological constraints caused a perfect storm that drove the species to annihilation. The dodo's swift demise was a tragic convergence of human carelessness and natural evolutionary limitations. Its extinction should motivate us to be wise stewards of our precious natural heritage. With vigilance and compassion, we can avoid repeating the preventable ecological mistakes that led to the loss of the dodo and other extinct creatures.

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One of the main causes of the dodo's extinction was overhunting by humans. When Dutch sailors first arrived on Mauritius, the defenseless dodo was an easy

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Mycorena is a Swedish food technology company specializing in fungi fermentation to produce sustainable mycoprotein-based products. Their flagship product, Promyc, is a versatile mycoprotein ingredient suitable for various vegan food applications. Subskin and Mycorena share several core similarities in their missions and approaches to sustainable food innovation

Strengths:

Sustainable Production: Utilizing fungi fermentation, Mycorena offers a sustainable alternative to traditional animal-based proteins.

Product Versatility: Promyc can be incorporated into a wide range of vegan food products, enhancing their nutritional profile.

European Partnerships: The company has established strategic partnerships across Europe, aiding in market penetration and product development.

Weaknesses:

Market Awareness: As a relatively new entrant, Mycorena may face challenges in brand recognition compared to established competitors.

Scaling Production: Expanding production capacity to meet growing demand could present logistical and financial challenges.

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Nature’s Fynd produces Fy™, a nutritional fungi protein derived from a microbe discovered in Yellowstone National Park. This protein is cultivated through fermentation and is utilized in various products, including meatless breakfast patties and dairy-free cream cheese.

Nature’s Fynd and Subskin, though differing in their specific approaches, share several foundational similarities in their missions and innovations within the sustainable food industry

Advantages: Fy™ is a complete vegan protein source containing all 20 amino acids, including the 9 essential ones. It is also a good source of fiber, including beta-glucans and prebiotic fiber.

Efficient Resource Utilization: The fermentation process used to produce Fy™ requires significantly less land and water compared to traditional agriculture.

Product Versatility: Fy™ has been incorporated into various products, from breakfast patties to cream cheese, and even featured in dishes at Michelin-starred restaurants.

Challenges:

Consumer Awareness: As a novel protein source, consumer familiarity and acceptance may be limited, necessitating educational marketing efforts.Food & Wine

Market Competition: The alternative protein market is becoming increasingly competitive, requiring continuous innovation and differentiation.

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Nature's Fynd - Fungi-Based Foods for Optimists

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We make our fungi-based protein, Fy™️, into delicious foods you know and love. Vegan, nutritious, sustainable. What more could you ask for?

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Transforms byproducts of traditional beer brewing into high-quality foods and meat

Advantages:

Innovative upcycling of spent brewer’s yeast and malt into consumable products.

Offers a range of products, including muesli, pizzas, and meat alternatives, promoting sustainability.

Challenges:

Relies on plant-based byproducts, differing from Subskin's animal-derived materials.

Consumer acceptance of products made from brewing byproducts may vary.

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The combination of spent malt, lentil protein and wheat protein gives our brewbee plant-based products their irresistible flavour. Try now

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Produces "Solein," a protein-rich powder derived from single-cell organisms, using air and electricity.

Solar Foods and Subskin are pioneering brands in the realm of sustainable food innovation. While their methodologies differ, they converge on several key principles aimed at reshaping the future of food.

Advantages:

Revolutionary approach to sustainable food production, potentially reducing land and carbon footprints.

Received approval in Singapore, with plans

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For the first time in history, humankind can produce food without burdening our home planet.

Liberating protein production

Food production, as we know it, is entirely dependent on land and weather conditions. Protein production is a massively disproportionate squanderer of the Earth's resources. It's time to enter the era of sustainable food production to liberate our planet from the burdens of agriculture.

Harvesting natural microscopic food

Our unique bioprocess can grow a single microorganism, one of the billions found in nature, into an endless supply of edible food with air, electricity and fermentation. This bioprocess may not be traditional, but it is as natural as the air we breathe.

Solein® - protein out of thin air

Solein is the purest and most sustainable protein in the world. It is nutritionally rich. It can taste and look like anything you use it for. It is unparalleled in its functionality - it can be used in any food, regardless of diet.

A radical impact on the future of food

Food production, as we know it, is entirely dependent on land and weather conditions. Protein production is a massively disproportionate squanderer of the Earth's resources. It's time to enter the era of sustainable food production to liberate our planet from the burdens of agriculture.

From a vision to concrete action

We lead by example. We started the construction of Factory 01 in 2021. We will be ready to produce the world's most sustainable protein in 2024. And this factory is only the first of many to come.

Join the food revolution

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© 2023, Solar Foods, All rights reserved.

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For the first time in history, humankind can produce food without burdening our home planet. Liberating protein production Food production, as we know it, is entirely dependent on land and weather conditions. Protein production is a massively disproportionate squanderer of the Earth's resources.

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Produces lab-grown chicken cells for pet food, marking the first approval of its kind globally.

Meatly and Subskin are both pioneering brands in the sustainable food innovation sector, albeit with distinct approaches and target markets

Advantages:

Innovative upcycling of spent brewer’s yeast and malt into consumable products.

Offers a range of products, including muesli, pizzas, and meat alternatives, promoting sustainability.

Challenges:

Relies on plant-based byproducts, differing from Subskin's animal-derived materials.

Consumer acceptance of products made from brewing byproducts may vary.

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We create real meat for our pets without hurting other animals. Find out more from the world’s leading cultivated pet food company

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Human activities have affected the ecological balance, which can cause the Cascade Effect

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Human activities have affected the ecological balance, which can cause the Cascade Effect

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When a key species becomes extinct, other species that depend on it may also become extinct one after another. This phenomenon is called the cascade effect. For example, in China, excessive fishing of sparrows has caused locust disasters, and locust disasters have led to food shortages.

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Bottom trawling has a cascading or domino effect on marine life and a butterfly effect that reaches both the depths and the atmosphere. %

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I want to create a brand that can solve two problems in the future. I have found that Ecosystem Balance and the problem of food shortage can be combined because sometimes the reduction or even extinction of species comes from human slaughter. To solve the food problem, such as the extinction of the dodo bird.

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The dodo bird and factors for its extinction | Britannica

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Dodos once lived on an island in the Indian Ocean. They became extinct less than 200 years after humans arrived on the island.

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Loss of Top Predators Disrupts Ecosystem Balance

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Loss of Top Predators Disrupts Ecosystem Balance

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The reduction of any living organism leads to the disruption of the biological chain

Research from the University of British Columbia shows that the decline of top predators such as lions and wolves has led to an overabundance of herbivores, resulting in vegetation loss and dynamic changes in diseases. This nutritional degradation has a profound impact on the structure and function of the ecosystem.

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Extinctions at the Top of the Food Chain Have Surprising Cascade Impacts on Ecosystems: UBC Researchers

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The loss of large predator animals across the globe is having unanticipated impacts on processes as diverse as human disease dynamics, wildfires and biogeochemical cycles, according to new research by an international team of scientists that includes UBC zoologists.

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The number of birds in North America has decreased 

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The number of birds in North America has decreased 

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According to a study in the journal Science, about 75% of bird species in North America are on the decline, especially in areas once regarded as ecologically strong regions such as grasslands, arid regions and the Arctic. The main reasons include agricultural expansion, habitat destruction, climate change and pesticide use.

The Guardian

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Bird populations across North America are falling most quickly in areas where they are most abundant, according to new research, prompting fears of ecological collapse in previously protected areas.

Analysis of nearly 500 bird species across North America has found that three-quarters are declining across their ranges, with two-thirds of the total shrinking significantly.

The study, published in the journal Science, indicates that former strongholds for bird species are no longer safe, particularly in grasslands, drylands and the Arctic.

In one of the most ambitious uses of citizen science data so far, scientists at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology used observations from eBird, a popular application used by birdwatchers to record sightings, to model changes between 2007 and 2021. The granularity of the data allowed researchers to track the rate of change in 27 sq km (10 sq miles) segments across North America, showing dramatic declines in areas where less than two decades ago bird species had thrived.

Williamson's sapsucker is threatened in more than half of the states and provinces where it breeds, according to the report. Photograph: Blair Dudeck/Cornell Lab of Ornithology/Macaulay Library

"We've known for several years that a lot of bird species in North America have been declining. With this study, we were aiming to understand in much finer spatial resolution where birds were declining and where they might be increasing. Rather than having a range-wide trend to see if a species is going up or down, we want to know where it is going up and down," said Alison Johnston, director of the Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling at the University of St Andrews, UK, who led the study.

"The main ecological finding is that the locations where these species were thriving in the past, where the environments were really well suited to birds, are now the places where they are suffering the most," she said.

The researchers said further studies were needed to explain the reasons behind the changes, many of which were dramatic, with populations falling by more than 10% a year in some areas. Global heating and habitat change were put forward as the main theories behind the shifts, but Johnston said they ultimately did not know.

Graphic showing decline of bird species

"The way I interpret this result is that it's indicative of major changes in our world," she said. "The fact that where birds used to have strongholds, where there used to be a lot of resources, where the environments were really suitable, are now the places where they are declining most, that suggests to me that we are just seeing fundamental changes to the environments around us. The birds are like the canary in the coalmine," she said.

The research adds to a recent series of studies that have documented severe declines of birds in nature reserves and protected areas.

Despite the worrying overall picture, the researchers found pockets of stability in bird populations in their analysis, such as the Appalachians and western mountains. In addition, 97% of all bird species had some pockets where their populations were increasing.

The team at Cornell University has previously developed methods for reliably converting citizen science observations in apps such as eBird into data that can be used to monitor population changes in a single species. The study authors only included results that had passed strict reliability checks.

Prof Amanda Rodewald from the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, a co-author on the study, said the methods would allow conservationists to target their efforts.

"It is this kind of small-scale information across broad geographies that has been lacking and it's exactly what we need to make smart conservation decisions," she said. "These data products give us a new lens to detect and diagnose population declines and to respond to them in a way that's strategic, precise and flexible. That's a gamechanger for conservation."

Ian Burfield, a global science coordinator with BirdLife, who was not involved in the study, welcomed the research and said it highlighted areas for further investigation.

"North American birds are one of very few taxonomic groups and regions where such data exist to facilitate this approach. This emphasises the vital need for more field data collection, both through formal monitoring schemes and citizen science efforts, in many other parts of the world, especially in the biodiversity-rich tropics," he said.
Find more age of extinction coverage here, and follow the biodiversity reporters Phoebe Weston and Patrick Greenfield in the Guardian app for more nature coverage

This article was amended on 2 May 2025. An earlier version incorrectly attributed the referenced study to Princeton, rather than Cornell University.

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Collapsing bird numbers in North America prompt fears of ecological crisis - research

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Study using citizen data finds three-quarters of nearly 500 species in decline, with steepest trend in areas where they once thrived

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According to the prediction of "Scientific Reports", small-scale species extinction may occur in the coming decades, which leads to this problem. The reason is that humans have failed to control greenhouse gas emissions, pollution and deforestation

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The ongoing species extinction rates, which reached the 1% level on land and the 0% level in seas from 1800-1900 to 2010, are far from the major mass extinction magnitude (> 60%)4; however, the percentage of threatened species reaches 28% of all species at present on Earth5. Recently, some papers have suggested that a major mass extinction will occur due to human activity in the near future. Since five major mass extinctions have occurred since animals became common on Earth 540-520 Myr ago4,6, this expected major mass extinction is called the sixth major mass extinction. However, analyses of future extinction magnitudes have not yet been reported due to unknown relationships between the causes of future extinctions and the different causes of the Phanerozoic mass extinctions and the current extinction4.

The causes of mass extinctions in the Phanerozoic after the invasion of land by plants and animals are summarized as climate change, pollution, deforestation, and sunlight reduction. Changes in these four categories should have always occurred throughout the major mass extinctions, as evidenced by many geochemical analyses4,7. The ongoing current-future extinction of animals occurred in parallel with rapid global warming, with deforestation and pollution marked by mercury, CO, and black carbon emissions and plastic production3. Only the sunlight reduction category is not ongoing. When a nuclear war occurs, stratospheric soot is formed, thus causing sunlight reductions and global cooling15. Therefore, when nuclear war occurs, all four causes are active.

Although the relatively large surface temperature anomalies correlate well with the large extinction magnitudes of marine animals and terrestrial tetrapods in the Phanerozoic4, no relationships between other causes and extinction magnitudes in the Phanerozoic have been reported. First, I clarify the relevant relationships (Fig. 1). Second, I estimate the changes in the four causes listed above from 1700 to 2500 CE (Fig. 2). Third, I approximate the future extinction magnitude monitored by each cause and all causes together (Figs. 3, 4). The four causes are monitored in both the past and future by (i) measured historical global surface temperature anomalies4 and estimated future anomalies8,9, (ii) the increased rate of mercury concentration in sediments, used herein as a representative proxy for past pollution10 and CO ₂ emission amounts accompanied by pollutant materials for future pollution11, (iii) occupancy percentages of deforestation areas in pre-event forest areas for the past12 and human population harmonized with deforestation for the future13, and (iv) the amounts of stratospheric soot resulting from the K-Pg asteroid impact for the past14 and estimated nuclear war15 for the future. Only soot introduced by nuclear war is independent of the other causes, whereas the other causes are related both in the past and future. I analyze (i) the former three causes of global warming events on land and shallow seas because the current ongoing crisis is accompanied by global warming and (ii) the global cooling event at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary (K-Pg) for the latter cause, soot, because the formation of aerosols causing reduced sunlight is a common cause of major and minor mass extinctions. The rapid global warming itself may not cause a mass extinction, because the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) at 56 Myr ago characterized by global warming17 lacks deforestation18,19 and a mass extinction20,21. The ongoing biotic crisis without nuclear war is similar to PETM in having global warming, mercury concentration22, and lacking stratospheric aerosols causing global cooling. Whereas, the ongoing crisis with nuclear war will be similar to the past mass extinctions, whereas the ongoing crisis without nuclear war is similar to PETM except for deforestation. Therefore, I calculated animal species extinction magnitude (%) under the PETM case and the mass extinction case.

Relationships between the four causes of mass extinctions and the species extinction magnitude. The causes include global surface temperature anomalies4 ( a), mercury amounts (relative to pre-event values) as a proxy for pollution ( b)10,22,29,30,31, the deforestation area % ( c)12,18,19,24, and the amount of soot present in the stratosphere inducing sunlight reduction and global cooling due to nuclear war in future or the asteroid impact at the K-Pg boundary ( d)14 (see Methods and Supplementary Table S1). Data in a- c are from the end-Ordovician, end-Guadalupian, end-Permian, and Holocene-Anthropocene, characterized by global warming and terrestrial-nearshore animal extinctions. Blue circle: marine animals. Red square: terrestrial tetrapods. Open blue circles and red squares show data at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), which lacks deforestation, stratospheric aerosol formation causing global cooling and a mass extinction. There are the mass extinction case and PETM case on global surface temperature anomaly ( a). An increase in global surface temperature by 6.5 °C, which is converted from the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly (4-5 °C) of Zachos et al. 17 using the figure of Kaiho4 for the conversion) at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). These data are shown in Supplementary Table S1.

Changes in global surface temperature anomalies ( a)8,9, mercury concentrations (relative to pre-event values) as a proxy for pollution (see Methods and Supplementary Table S2 for future mercury rate) ( b)11,25,26, deforestation areas % (see Methods and Supplementary Table S2 for future deforestation) ( c)12,28, and stratospheric soot amounts introduced by nuclear war inducing sunlight reduction and global cooling ( d)15 from CE 1700 to 2500. Solid line in ( a- c): the most likely case. Dushed line in ( a- c): the worst case (see " Methods"). ( d) shows stratospheric soot amount by two nuclear war scenarios after Coupe et al.15 and no nuclear war case. The light blue and orange bars under the horizontal axes show the timing of the stoppage of GHG emissions in the most likely case and in the worst case, respectively. These data are shown in Supplementary Table S2.

Animal species extinction percentages in the marine (blue) and terrestrial (red) realms from CE 1700 to 2500 resulting from global surface temperature changes in the PETM case ( a), those in the mass extinction case ( b), pollution ( c), deforestation ( d), and stratospheric soot introduced by nuclear war ( e) in the most likely case (solid line) and the worst case (dushed line). This figure is made from data in Figs. 1 and 2. The light blue and orange bars under the horizontal axes show the timing of the stoppage of GHG emissions in the most likely case and in the worst case, respectively. These data are shown in Supplementary Tables S3 and S4.

Animal species extinction percentages in the marine (blue circle) and terrestrial (red square) realms from CE 1700 to 2500 by all causes without nuclear war in the PETM case ( a), those under minor nuclear war in the PETM case ( b), those under major nuclear war in the PETM case ( c), those without nuclear war in the mass extinction case ( d), those under minor nuclear war in the mass extinction case ( e), those under major nuclear war in the mass extinction case ( f), in the most likely case (solid lines with closed dots) and the worst case (dushed lines with open dots). Thick lines: different contribution case. Thin lines: equal contribution case. The light blue and orange bars under the horizontal axes show the timing of the stoppage of GHG emissions in the most likely case and in the worst case, respectively. The maximum values of species extinction (%) correspond to the final species extinction magnitude. These data are shown in Supplementary Tables S5- S8. The maximum extinction magnitude occurred in ~ 2100 CE under no nuclear war case.

The relationship between each cause and the species extinction magnitude

The first analysis indicates the following four results on the relationship between each cause and the species extinction magnitude. There is a positive relationship between global surface temperature anomalies and the species extinction magnitude under the mass extinction case4 (Fig. 1a). Under the PETM case, species extinction magnitude could have been < 10% because of no mass extinction. The larger mercury amount ratio values measured during extinction events compared to the pre-event values correspond to the relatively high extinction percentages in the marine and terrestrial realms (Fig. 1b). Both marine and terrestrial extinction magnitudes were low (1%)1,2 under at least < 40% deforestation compared to forests in ~ 4000 BC12; however, the 100% deforestation rate identified from plant fossil data in the Permian-Triassic transition23,24 corresponded to 80% and 97% species extinctions in sea and land regions, respectively (Figs. 1c). Globally distributed stratospheric soot absorbing sunlight and inducing global cooling can be a cause of animal extinctions14. The stratospheric soot amounts measured in correspondence with the K-Pg asteroid impact event and future estimated nuclear wars15 and the resulting global cooling anomalies are predicted to induce 10-20%, 40-50%, and 70% species extinctions when minor nuclear war (e.g., between India and Pakistan), major nuclear war (e.g., between USA and Russia), and the K-Pg impact event occur, respectively (Fig. 1 d).

Changes in the proxies representing the four causes

The second analysis indicates the following results regarding the changes in the proxies representing the four causes. In the most likely case, global surface temperature anomalies will reach 3.0 °C in 2100 CE, 3.5 °C in 2200 CE, and 3.8 °C in 2500 CE8 on average with global warming from 1861 to 1880 CE (Fig. 2a). A large increase in pollution is predicted from 1800 to 2100 CE, followed by a decrease until 2500 CE (Fig. 2b). Ongoing deforestation will likely mostly stop increasing in 2100 CE and then slightly decrease between 2200 and 2500 CE in the most likely case as the human population slightly decreases27; in the worst case, ongoing deforestation will continue at the maximum level because humans will not return farmland or cities to wild forests (Fig. 2c). Figure 2d shows the increased stratospheric soot amount resulting from nuclear war at three levels, namely, no nuclear war, minor nuclear war (e.g., between India and Pakistan), and major nuclear war (e.g., between the USA and Russia)15. The introduction of stratospheric soot by nuclear war will cause sunlight reduction, causing global cooling over a few years.

Species extinction magnitude changes

The third analysis indicates the following results on the species extinction magnitude changes resulting from each cause using Figs. 1 and 2 and Supplementary Tables S1 and S2 (Fig. 3, Supplementary Tables S3, S4) and all causes using Fig. 3 and Supplementary Table S3, S4 (Fig. 4, Supplementary Tables S5- S8). The extinction magnitudes shown in Fig. 3 correspond to the case in which the extinction magnitudes controlled by the four causes can be monitored using only a single cause. The species extinction magnitude resulting from temperature anomalies will increase from 2000 to 2500 CE, and be low in PETM case (Fig. 3a) and higher in the mass extinction case (Fig. 3b). The species extinction magnitude estimated by pollution will peak at approximately 2100 CE and then decrease rapidly to an extinction rate of zero (Fig. 3c). The extinction rate induced by deforestation will peak in approximately 2100 CE, then gradually decrease to 60% of the maximum magnitude or maintain the maximum value (Fig. 3d). The extinction severity caused by stratospheric soot will depend on the occurrence magnitude of nuclear war calculated from the number of weapons deployed, and the average explosive power of the nuclear weapons15 (Fig. 3 e shows the occurrences in each century).

Under no nuclear war case, the species extinction magnitudes, in percentages, obtained in correspondence with the four causes under two different contribution scenarios in the PETM case indicate that 3-13% marine animal species loss and 15-17% terrestrial tetrapod species loss will occur under the most likely case, and 9-16% marine animal species loss and 31-36% terrestrial tetrapod species loss will occur under the worst case (Fig. 4a, Supplementary Table S9). Those in mass extinction case indicate that 4-12% marine animal species loss and 19-21% terrestrial tetrapod species loss will occur under the most likely case, 24-30% marine animal species loss and 36-41% terrestrial tetrapod species loss will occur under the worst case (Fig. 4d, Supplementary Table S9).

Those in minor nuclear war case in the PETM case indicate that 8-15% marine animal species loss and 22-24% terrestrial tetrapod species loss will occur under the most likely case, 15-33% marine animal species loss and 38-42% terrestrial tetrapod species loss will occur under the worst case (Fig. 4b, Supplementary Table S9). Those in mass extinction case show that 9-15% marine animal species loss and 25-28% terrestrial tetrapod species loss will occur under the most likely case, and 28-33% marine animal species loss and 43-47% terrestrial tetrapod species loss will occur under the worst case (Fig. 4e, Supplementary Table S9).

Those in major nuclear war case in the PETM case indicate that 26-28% marine animal species loss and 29% terrestrial tetrapod species loss will occur under the most likely case, 34-44% marine animal species loss and 46-49% terrestrial tetrapod species loss will occur under the worst case (Fig. 4c, Supplementary Table S9). Those in mass extinction case show that 26-28% marine animal species loss and 32-36% terrestrial tetrapod species loss will occur under the most likely case, 44-55% marine animal species loss and 52-54% terrestrial tetrapod species loss will occur under the worst case (Fig. 4c, Supplementary Table S9).

When nuclear war does not occur, 12-14% marine and terrestrial species loss in average is predicted under the most likely case (PETM case-mass extinction case) while a magnitude of 23-33% is predicted under the worst case (Fig. 5, Supplementary Table S9). When a major nuclear war occurs, the extinction magnitudes increase double to 28-31% species loss under the most likely case and 43-51% under the worst case (Fig. 5, Supplementary Table S9).

Marine animal and terrestrial tetrapod species extinction percentages corresponding to major and selected minor mass extinctions in the Phanerozoic with coincident global surface temperature anomalies. Numbers 1 to 5: the five major mass extinctions. Marine species extinction values in geologic ages shown by blue columns based on Bambach20. Terrestrial tetrapod species extinction values in geologic ages shown by red columns based on Benton et al.32 and Sahney and Benton21. These extinction % data are comparable because of the usage of similar methods (conventional method and substage or substage-like short intervals)4. Closed bars in the Anthropocene show species extinction rate (%) in the case of the most likely case. Closed plus open bars in the Anthropocene show that in the case of the worst case. Global temperature anomaly: Global surface temperature anomaly. O: Ordovician. F-F: Frasnian-Famennian boundary. G: Guadalupian. P: Permian. T: Triassic. J-K: Jurassic-Cretaceous boundary. K-Pg: Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. Nc war: major nuclear war case. PETM: PETM case. ME: Mass extinction case. likely: most likely case. worst: worst case. Each silhouette shows a representative vertebrate animal from each age.

A minor mass extinction, 20-50% animal species loss, will occur under both the most likely and worst cases when minor or major nuclear wars and/or the worst case for global warming, pollution, and deforestation occurred. Under most likely case without minor and major nuclear wars, a mass extinction will occur, but low, 10-15% animal species loss (Fig. 5, Supplementary Table S9). The magnitude of this extinction event under the former cases will be similar to those of the end-Guadalupian (middle Permian) and Jurassic-Cretaceous (J-K) boundary crises (Fig. 5).

The most likely case corresponds to decreases in GHG emissions, pollution, and deforestation over 40-50 years corresponding to global warming total of 3.0 °C in 2100 CE and 3.8 °C in 2500 CE since 1861-1880 CE, resulting in 8% marine, 16-20% terrestrial animal species extinctions in average, and 12-14% in average of the both without any future nuclear war (the range is due to the PETM case or the mass extinction case), which less than the total extinction magnitude of the end-Guadalupian (25%). However, minor and major nuclear wars under the most likely case will cause 17-19% and 28-31% species extinctions in average, respectively. To avoid a mass extinction (> 10% animal species loss), humans must decrease GHG emissions over 20-30 years corresponding to a global warming total of less than 2.5 °C in 2100 CE since 1861-1880 CE, corresponding to less than the mid of Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 and 4.5 (RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5); this scenario involves decreasing pollution and deforestation at a similar rate in this century and preventing nuclear war in the future.

Humans are inducing deforestation and air/water/soil pollution due to industrial chemical reactions and the combustion of fossil fuels3,26, resulting in global warming. At the same time, humans are facing the danger of nuclear war. The magnitudes of future extinctions mainly depend on the feasibility of (i) the CO ₂ reductions implemented by current world politics, (ii) stopping pollution, (iii) stopping deforestation, and (iv) preventing nuclear war. Humans should continuously monitor GHG emission amounts, temperature anomalies, environmental conditions including air, water, and vegetation conditions, and animal biomasses and species losses on land-near-shore sea areas; in addition, humans should conserve the environment and wildlife and prevent nuclear war to avoid a higher-magnitude crisis and to maintain ecological balance in the current human age, the Anthropocene. These measures will benefit not only animals other than humans but also humans themselves because failure to stop the four causes described above will lead to a significant decrease in biodiversity, the collapse of ecological balance, and a significant decrease in the human population.

Selection of environmental-biotic events to be studied

In global warming events associated with mass extinctions, the current environmental changes are similar to those recorded during the end-Ordovician, end-Guadalupian, and end-Permian mass extinctions. Therefore, I analyzed global surface temperature anomalies, mercury pollution concentrations, and deforestation percentages in these three mass extinctions and in the current crisis. The asteroid impact at the K-Pg boundary and nuclear war cause the formation of stratospheric soot aerosols distributed globally, thus inducing sunlight reductions and global cooling (impact winter and nuclear winter). I also analyzed stratospheric soot aerosols as a possible cause of future extinctions.

Most likely case and worst case

The most likely case corresponds to the reduction of CO ₂ emissions resulting from human conduct, the protection of forests, and the introduction of anti-pollution measures in the future under the Paris Agreement on Climate change and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The worst case corresponds to the scenario in which humans fail to stop increasing global surface temperatures, pollution, and deforestation until 2100-2200 CE.

I use the average of the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 cases in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)8 as the most likely case of GHG emissions, representing the middle of the four potential GHG emissions cases (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) in Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC8, approximately corresponding to the middle of SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 in Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC9. The timing of decreased global GHG emissions is 2060-2080 CE. Therefore, I use the average GHG emissions and global surface temperature anomalies of the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 cases as the most likely values and those of the RCP8.5 case as the worst-case scenario, marked by stopping GHG emissions from 2090 to 2100 CE8,9, as this case corresponds to the highest GHG emissions8,9.

Surface temperature anomaly, environment, and extinction magnitude data

Data on surface temperature anomalies and extinction percentages are from Kaiho4. Changes in industrial GHG emissions and global surface temperature anomalies are sourced from the Fifth and Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC8,9.

Pollution can be represented by mercury concentrations measured in sedimentary rocks recording mass extinctions8 and in recent sediments deposited in seas and lakes25,26 because mercury is toxic to plants and animals and because its sources include volcanic eruptions, meteorite impacts, and the combustion of fossil fuels10,33, which are common sources of pollutants, and because it can be commonly measured from sedimentary rocks recording mass extinctions33. The mercury concentration is related to the CO ₂ emission amount during global warming because of the common sources of mercury and CO ₂ (volcanism and fossil fuel combustion influencing global warming). Thus, the future mercury concentrations are estimated based on the CO ₂ emission amounts estimated by the IPCC8,9. Since mercury and the other pollutants mainly come from oil, coal, and vegetation33, the amount of mercury released should change in parallel with industrial CO ₂ emissions because there is a good correlation between mercury and CO ₂ emissions11.

Deforestation occurs by the expansion of agricultural areas and urban areas, which are strongly related to human populations13,28. Thus, future deforestation percentages are estimated based on estimated future population data27 (Supplementary Table S2). The severity of deforestation in each event is expressed by the occupancy % of the deforested area in the pre-event forest area in (i) the Permian-Triassic transition marked by the largest mass extinction based on plant fossil records24 and (ii) 2005-2015 CE as a representative of the Anthropocene epoch based on the actual forest area relative to the pre-agriculture phase before 4000 BP. Deforestation is related to the human population because agriculture and urbanization have caused deforestation13,28. I estimate the past and future deforestation percentage using human population data in the past and future21 based on the parallel growth of the human population and deforestation13,28.

Amount of stratospheric soot was calculated using a method of Kaiho and Oshima34 (Supplementary Table S1). I obtained global surface temperature anomaly caused by stratospheric soot using Fig. 5 of Kaiho and Oshima34.

I then use those data to estimate the future extinction magnitude based on the assumption that the Earth and contemporary life at the time of each crisis are more or less mutually comparable throughout time and to the present day.

I estimate the magnitude of the species animal extinction crisis between 2000 and 2500 CE using Figs. 1, 2 and Supplementary Tables S1 and S2 in each cause under the most likely case and worst case under three nuclear war scenarios (zero, minor, and major; Fig. 2d)15 in the PETM and mass extinction cases, respectively (Supplementary Tables S3, S4; Fig. 3). Finally, I estimate the magnitude of current animal extinction crisis by the four causes as an average of the species extinction magnitude by the four causes in Fig. 3. I use two different contribution rates of temperature anomalies, pollution, deforestation, and stratospheric soot by nuclear wars, 1:0.2:0.1:1 for marine animals and 1:0.5:1:1 for terrestrial tetrapods (different contribution case considering lower influence of pollution and deforestation to marine animals rather than terrestrial animals) and 1:1:1:1 for marine animals and 1:1:1:1 for terrestrial tetrapods (equal contribution case considering high influence of pollution and deforestation to marine animals via rain and soil erosion) (Supplementary Tables S5- S9). These contribution rates are estimated as end-members to show ranges of animal species extinction magnitude (%).

This study was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (KAKENHI Grants in-Aid for Scientific Research; Grant Numbers JP22H01345. I thank Department of Pediatric Surgery, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Takashi Kaiho, Akira Miyazaki, and Tsutomu Katsuta for donation and an anonymous referee for useful comments.

Authors and Affiliations

Department of Earth Science, Tohoku University, Aoba-Aza, Aramaki, Aoba-Ku, Sendai, 980-8578, Japan

Kunio Kaiho

Contributions

K.K. designed the study, analyzed the data, interpreted the data, and wrote the article including figures and tables.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kunio Kaiho.

Competing interests

The author declares no competing interests.

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Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
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Extinction magnitude of animals in the near future - Scientific Reports

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There have been five major mass extinctions and some minor mass extinctions of animals since early animal diversification 540-520 Myr ago. It is said that a sixth mass extinction is already underway. However, the future extinction magnitude has not been quantitatively estimated.

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The global food supply is heavily reliant on just three crops—rice, maize, and wheat—which provide 50% of human calories. This lack of diversity makes the food system vulnerable to pests, diseases, and climate change. Experts advocate for increased genetic diversity in crops and a reduction in meat consumption to mitigate environmental impacts and enhance food security.

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The world currently produces more than enough food to feed everyone, yet 815 million people (roughly 11% of the global population) went hungry in 2016, according to the U.N.

By 2050, with the global population expected to reach 9.8 billion, our food supplies will be under far greater stress. Demand will be 60% higher than it is today, but climate change, urbanization, and soil degradation will have shrunk the availability of arable land, according to the World Economic Forum. Add water shortages, pollution, and worsening inequality into the mix and the implications are stark.

Among those trying to mitigate the risk of collapse is Richard Deverell, director of Britain's Royal Botanic Gardens at Kew. The gardens, which house "the largest and most diverse botanical and mycological collections in the world" are a key resource for scientists studying a multitude of food security issues: from wild rice varieties that require less water than their domestic counterpart to the proclivity of enset, a banana-like plant that has helped stave off famine in some regions of Ethiopia. The gardens also host the Millennium Seed Bank, which Deverell describes as an "insurance policy" against the extinction of plants in the wild.

TIME recently caught up with Deverell at the British Government-backed GREAT Festival of Innovation in Hong Kong to discuss ways to avert a global crisis.

What is global food security and why should we be concerned about it?

Food security is a really serious issue facing all of humanity. In essence, it's about how we feed a growing population at a time of climate change, which is unpredictable and not fully understood. Globally, we are reliant on a very slender thread of genetic diversity. According to the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), more than 50% of all human calories come from just three plants: rice, maize, and wheat.

Read more: Hungry Planet: What The World Eats

How vulnerable are our food sources to climate change or disease?

Over thousands of years of agriculture, humans have selected plants for particular characteristics, typically their yield. High yield is important for feeding a growing population but it means that our food crops are very homogenous. Currently, only 12 crops account for 75% of all human calories. If a particular pest or pathogen arises, or a particular vulnerability to changing climates, the entire crop becomes vulnerable because of the lack of genetic variability within it. We've seen this happen before. In the 1950s, the global banana supply was largely based on a single variety called the Gros Michel. The Panama Virus wiped it out because there was a lack of variability within the crop. But I'm confident there are solutions if we make the right decisions now. There are about 5,500 different varieties of edible plants, and yet we have found ourselves concentrating on a very narrow selection. Another factor is the balance of vegetable-based diets versus meat-based diets.

Why are meat-rich diets such a big problem?

One of the greatest causes of biodiversity loss and therefore extinction is the conversion of forest and woodland into grazing for cattle. A kilogram of beef is about 30-times more demanding on the environment than a kilogram of plant protein. For a sustainable future, I suspect that quite radical change to our diets is needed. One of the pressures is that developing societies are shifting to a meat-based diet. If the populations of India or China were to adopt the same meat-rich diet as America that would be extremely demanding on global resources.

Women in a paddy field during rice harvesting season in Srinagar,Indian administered Kashmir on Sept. 24, 2017. SOPA Images-LightRocket/Getty Images

Many Americans see meat as an integral part of every meal. How can this change?

The campaign should start with consumers being made aware of what they're eating and the consequences of that. Do people understand that eating beef is significantly more demanding on the environment than eating pork or chicken? Do people know where their food is coming from? But we are already seeing an uptick in interest in vegan and vegetarian diets - or perhaps eating vegetarian meals three or five times per week. I was in San Francisco last autumn and I was surprised to see the number of posters up urging a vegan diet - in 20 years time, will eating meat in San Francisco be as socially unacceptable as drinking and driving is now?

"Meatless meats" are gaining traction but there's also resistance to the idea of eating food grown in test tubes. Is this the future?

There will always be resistance to new technologies. But it's interesting because they are marketing plant-based burgers not to vegans or vegetarians, but to people who enjoy a beef burger. They are basically saying: try this, this tastes just as good, it's healthier for you, it's less expensive and it's certainly a lot better for the environment. Genetic modification (GM) is another issue where a poor public understanding of the underlying technology has led to an understandable concern. It's often alleged that GM is not natural. Well, orthodox agriculture is not natural, it's extremely damaging to the environment and if GM crops can be produced that require less herbicide, or pesticide, or water, then I think we as a society have to understand that there are some benefits involved.

Read more: A Turning Point for Hunger in America

What do you think will be on our dinner plates in 20 years time?

I would hope there would be a greater diversity of food sources; they would be more seasonal, and perhaps locally sourced. I think we'll still be eating meat but perhaps it will be seen as more of a treat, something that's special. Our diet evolves all the time: 30 years ago an avocado was a very rare and exotic thing in Britain, and bananas only appeared after the Second World War.

What can Americans do now to eat more sustainably?

Eat smaller portions. Eat less meat, perhaps fewer times per week. And try to reduce the miles that your food has had to travel. Locally sourced, seasonal food is good for your health and good for the environment. People might also think of growing their own food on a balcony, a roof, or in a garden. Not only is it really enjoyable, but it also reconnects individuals with nature.

- Video by Aria Chen / Hong Kong

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We Are Headed for a World Food Crisis. Here's How to Stop It

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Here are a few easy ways to be healthier and help avert a global food crisis at the same time

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According to the budget of the United Nations, by 2050, humans may consume up to 140 billion tons of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass each year, which is three times the current consumption. The consumption of mineral resources leads to water pollution and soil pollution

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By 2050, humanity could consume an estimated 140 billion tons of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass per year -- three times its current appetite -- unless the economic growth rate is "decoupled" from the rate of natural resource consumption, warns a new report from the United Nations Environment Programme.

Citizens of developed countries consume an average of 16 tons (ranging up to 40 or more tons) of those four key resources per capita. By comparison, the average person in India today consumes four tons per year.

With the growth of both population and prosperity, especially in developing countries, the prospect of much higher resource consumption levels is "far beyond what is likely sustainable" if realized at all given finite world resources, warns the report by UNEP's International Resource Panel.

Already the world is running out of cheap and high quality sources of some essential materials such as oil, copper and gold, the supplies of which, in turn, require ever-rising volumes of fossil fuels and freshwater to produce.

Achieving a rate of resource productivity ("doing more with less") greater than the economic growth rate is the notion behind "decoupling," the panel says. That goal, however, demands an urgent rethink of the links between resource use and economic prosperity, buttressed by a massive investment in technological, financial and social innovation, to at least freeze per capita consumption in wealthy countries and help developing nations follow a more sustainable path.

The trend towards urbanization may help as well, experts note, since cities allow for economies of scale and more efficient service provision. Densely populated places consume fewer resources per capita than sparsely populated ones thanks to economies in such areas as water delivery, housing, waste management and recycling, energy use and transportation, they say.

"Decoupling makes sense on all the economic, social and environmental dials," says UN Under Secretary-General Achim Steiner, UNEP's Executive Director.

"People believe environmental 'bads' are the price we must pay for economic 'goods.' However, we cannot, and need not, continue to act as if this trade-off is inevitable," he says. "Decoupling is part of a transition to a low carbon, resource efficient Green Economy needed in order to stimulate growth, generate decent kinds of employment and eradicate poverty in a way that keeps humanity's footprint within planetary boundaries."

"Next year's Rio+20 meeting represents an opportunity to accelerate and scale-up these 'green shoots' of a Green Economy, which are emerging across the developed and developing world."

The new report from UNEP's International Resource Panel, the fourth in a series, was launched in New York at the annual meeting of the UN Commission on Sustainable Development, where sustainable consumption and production are key issues. And it precedes by a year the global UN Conference on Sustainable Development 2012 meeting (or "Rio+20" in Rio de Janeiro 4-6 June 2012) with its two central themes of a Green Economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication, and achieving agreement on an international framework for sustainable development.

While the report doesn't offer detailed policy and technology options -- that's for later reports -- it says technologies that have helped humanity extract ever-greater quantities of natural resources need to be re-directed to more efficient ways of using them.

Global average annual per capita resource consumption in year 2000 was 8 to 10 tons, about double the rate of 1900. In 2000, the average rate in industrialized countries (home to one-fifth of world population) was roughly twice the global average and four or five times that of the poorest developing countries.

Global (and national) consumption rates per capita are calculated by dividing total world (and national) extractions of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass by world (and national) population figures.

Rapidly expanding international trade, however, obscures responsibility for resource consumption and associated environmental impacts, the authors note.

Over the past century, pollution controls and other measures have reduced the environmental impacts of economic growth. And, thanks to innovations in manufacturing, product design and energy use -- aided by the rising number of people living more efficient lifestyles in cities -- the global economy has grown faster than resource consumption growth.

Still, those improvements have only been relative. In absolute terms -- with population growth, continuing high levels of consumption in the industrialized countries, and increased demand for material goods, particularly in China, India, Brazil and other quickly-emerging economies -- total resource use grew eight-fold, from 6 billion tons in 1900 to 49 billion tons in 2000. It is now estimated at up to 59 billion tons.

Decoupling is occurring but "at a rate that is insufficient to meet the needs of an equitable and sustainable society," the report says. Between 1980 and 2002, the resources required per $1,000 (U.S.) of economic output fell from 2.1 to 1.6 tons.

The report details progress in four countries where government policy supports decoupling. Germany and Japan have both demonstrated the possibilities.

Germany has established goals for energy and resource productivity -- aiming to double both by 2020. There are also ambitious 2020 targets for meeting heating, electricity and other energy needs from renewable sources, and the target of a 30 per cent cut in carbon dioxide emissions by that same year.

Japan is committed to becoming a "Sustainable Society" focused on low carbon, the reduction, reuse and recycling of materials, and harmony with nature. The flow of materials is carefully accounted. Japan's measures "are probably the most advanced examples (of) increasing resource productivity and minimizing negative environmental impacts in practice," the report states.

South Africa's Constitution requires "ecologically sustainable development and use of natural resources." Policies explicitly call for "resource and impact decoupling" and greenhouse-gas emission cuts of 30 to 40 per cent by 2050. Progress, though, is undermined by a growing reliance on exports of coal and other minerals. Its carbon intensity is the world's highest and emissions per person are double the global average.

China aims to build an "ecological civilization," with resource and environmental concerns top priorities. It has created decoupling indicators and fixed mandatory targets, including a 20 per cent reduction of energy intensity and has run nationwide energy saving and pollution-reduction programs. A National Action Plan on Climate Change targets a 40 to 45 per cent reduction in carbon dioxide intensity by 2020.

China, in particular, is a global test case, "because it wants to continue its rapid economic growth but use resources more sustainably," the report says.

"The measures that China introduces to reconcile these objectives will be of crucial significance for every other developing country with similar policy intentions."

The report emphasizes that cutting the rate of resource consumption and impacts is possible, in theory, if national economic improvement is defined in terms other than physical growth.

"It is time to recognize the limits to the natural resources available to support human development and economic growth," the authors say. Decoupling "will require significant changes in government policies, corporate behaviour, and consumption patterns by the public. ... Innovation, even radical innovation, will be required."

The report describes three scenarios whereby developed and developing countries consume resources equitably: 'convergence by 2050'

Scenario 1: Business as usual in developed countries, convergence by others

Per capita resource consumption in the industrialized countries remains stable, as it has for the past three decades, and the rest of the world continues the current trend to catch up. This path leads to annual total consumption of 140 billion tons of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass, or 16 tons per capita for a population of 9 billion, by 2050. Says the report: this "represents an unsustainable future in terms of both resource use and emissions, probably exceeding all possible measures of available resources and assessments of limits to the capacity to absorb impacts."

Scenario 2: moderate contraction of consumption in developed countries, convergence by others

Industrialized nations halve average per capita consumption to 8 tons and other countries rise to that level. The result: total world consumption of 70 billion tons in 2050. "This scenario presupposes substantial structural change amounting to a new pattern of industrial production and consumption that would be quite different from the traditional resource-intensive Western industrial model," the report says.

This scenario results in global consumption of 70 billion tons by 2050 -- about 40% more annual resource extraction than in 2000. Average emissions of carbon dioxide per capita would rise almost 50% to 1.6 tons per capita and global CO2 emissions would more than double.

Absolute cuts in consumption -- well short of the scale required in scenario two -- have occurred in just a handful of countries, and in some cases only because they have lowered their per capita consumption rate by importing resources from elsewhere.

Scenario 3: tough contraction of consumption in developed countries, converging with others

Industrialized nations reduce per capita consumption by two thirds and other nations remain at current rates, resulting in a global per capita consumption rate of 6 tons and total world consumption of about 50 billion tons, the same as in year 2000.

This scenario would be so restrictive, and so unappealing to politicians, that it "can hardly be addressed as a possible strategic goal," the authors admit.

Yet, even such tough measures would maintain global consumption at levels many scientists still consider unsustainable. Average CO2 per capita emissions would be reduced by roughly 40% to 0.75 tons/capita and global emissions would remain constant at their 2000 level.

"These scenarios challenge our current thinking and assumptions about development," says the report. "If investments in developing and developed countries are made today that lock humanity into a business-as-usual or moderately improved resource intensive growth path, the risks of running into ecological and supply constraints will worsen."

"This finding has spurred the International Resource Panel to focus future reports on how to improve resource productivity and find viable alternatives for policy makers."

Challenges ahead include:

Policymakers and the general public aren't yet convinced of the absolute physical limits to the quantity of resources available for human use.

The wide discrepancies in per person consumption mean different levels of action are required. Poorer nations, likely the first to feel the impacts of resource shortages, must have a chance to improve conditions in the developed world. But if they emulate a profligate style of growth, they not only expose their economies to supply constraints, the planet's resource bank will go far deeper into the red.

The best and most easily accessible mineral ores and fossil fuels are being exhausted. New sources are generally more remote and of lower quality. Finding and extracting them takes more energy and increases the environmental impact. About three times more material needs to be moved for the same ore extraction as a century ago, with corresponding increases in land disruption, water impacts and energy use.

Resource extraction increasingly occurs in countries with lower legal and environmental standards, meaning "environmental impacts per unit of extracted material might become more severe."

As trade expands, it becomes more difficult to assign responsibility for resource consumption, a crucial consideration if each country is required to limit per capita consumption. Should the reduction of mining and its impacts, for example, be the responsibility of the country where the extraction takes place, the one where the ore is processed into a manufactured product, or the one where that product is consumed?

A "rebound" effect often leads to increased consumption after energy or manufactured goods become more efficient as consumers take advantage of cost savings to buy something else, or use a device more often -- for example: putting more kilometres on a fuel-efficient car.

Reasons for optimism:

According to the report, the certainty that resource shortages will eventually preclude business as usual ensures that any country "ahead of the game" by investing in innovation "will clearly reap the benefits when pressures mount for others to change rapidly."

Developing countries, unburdened by existing technologies, can leapfrog to less resource-intensive processes and goods, as much of Africa has, for example, by bypassing hard-wired telephone services and moving directly to wireless.

The rising cost of many resources creates an economic imperative to use less -- although, at the same time, higher prices could allow exploitation of more expensive, environmentally hazardous sources such as oil from the high Arctic.

Urbanization can reduce a population's consumption rate since it makes the provision of services more efficient and "concentrate(s) the knowledge, financial, social and institutional resources required for sustainability oriented innovations." However, the consumption numbers for cities can be artificially low if the urban area depends on energy and resources from the surrounding countryside. In addition, urban dwellers consume more as the economy grows. "This captures the dilemma of cities for sustainability," the report states. "They drive the global unsustainable use of resources, but they are also where the greatest potential exists for sustainability-oriented innovations."

Even today, there is a vast difference in resource use rate across countries, even those with the same GDP per capita. This indicates that it is possible for countries to be much more resource productive and still grow their economies.

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energy policy; energy and resources; fossil fuels; sustainability; environmental policy; energy and the environment; resource shortage; environmental policies; energy issues

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Humanity can and must do more with less, experts urge

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By 2050, humanity could consume an estimated 140 billion tons of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass per year -- three times its current appetite -- unless the economic growth rate is "decoupled" from the rate of natural resource consumption, warns a new report.

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The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity is a 2020 non-fiction book by the Australian philosopher Toby Ord, a senior research fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute in Oxford. It argues that humanity faces unprecedented risks over the next few centuries and examines the moral significance of safeguarding humanity's future.

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The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity (London: Bloomsbury, 2020), by Toby Ord * Journal of Futures Studies

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Humanity is now on the precipice of extinction. According to Toby Ord, senior research fellow at the University of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute, there is a 1 in 6 chance that civilization will come to an end in the next century. Throughout the twentieth century, that chance was 1 in 100.