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Barr, Andy, director. All About Kentucky. YouTube, YouTube, 24 July 2018,

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ug3Ges9MujE.

Barr, Andy, director. Kentucky Values . YouTube, YouTube, 3 Nov. 2018,

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALGGxUKxiYc.

Board, Herald-Leader editorial. “Do Your Country a Favor. Send Amy McGrath to Congress.” Kentucky, Lexington Herald Leader, www.kentucky.com/opinion/editorials/article220685975.html.

“Commonwealth of Kentucky State Board of Elections.” Voter Rights - State Board of Elections,

elect.ky.gov/Voters/Pages/Voter-Rights.aspx.

Congress, Amy McGrath for, director. Inevitable. YouTube, YouTube, 10 Aug. 2018,

www.youtube.com/watch?v=UP3__SYoNLg.

Congress, Amy McGrath for, director. Told Me . YouTube, YouTube, 1 Aug. 2017,

www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjG2fK7kNk.

“DW Home.” Democracy Works, www.democracy.works/.

“Kentucky Election Results 2016.” The New York Times, The New York Times,

www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/kentucky.

“Kentucky Results.” CNN Politics, CNN, www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/states/kentucky.

“Kentucky Sixth Congressional District Map .” Wuky, Legislative Research Commission ,

www.wuky.org/post/closer-look-sixth-congressional-district-map#stream/0.

OnTheIssues.org. “On the Issue Amy McGrath .” Amy McGrath on the Issues,

www.ontheissues.org/House/Amy_McGrath.htm.

McGrath, Amy. “Twitter.” Twitter, twitter.com/AmyMcGrathKY.

OnTheIssues.org. “Andy Barr On the Issues.” Andy Barr on the Issues,

www.ontheissues.org/House/Andy_Barr.htm.

Multiple NYT Contributors. “Midterm Election Poll: Kentucky's 6th District, Barr vs. McGrath.”

The New York Times, The

New York Times, 1 Nov. 2018,

www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ky06-3.html.

“Rep. Andy Barr - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets,

www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00031233.

“Re: Recent Kentucky 6th CD Survey.” Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, Hart Research, 4 Oct. 2018,

static1.squarespace.com/static/594516cd2cba5e0fcda7a240/t/5bb634a5e2c48302b008f21a/1538667686360/pollmemo.pdf

Blizzard, Robert, and Gene Ulm. “Re: Kentucky CD-6 Poll Results.” Public Opinion Strategies, Public Opinion

Strategies, 9 Oct. 2018, www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-5a27-dd6e-a17e-feefbb640001.

“Rep. Garland ‘Andy’ Barr, Amy McGrath Win Kentucky 6th Congressional District

Primaries.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 12 Oct. 2018, www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/kentucky-6th-congressional-district/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6306eb82d526.

US Census Bureau. “Census.gov.” Census.gov, www.census.gov/.

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Our group predicts that Amy McGrath will win the Kentucky 6th District Congressional Race in the 2018 Midterms because voters feel alienated from Andy Barr, and because McGrath is a moderate candidate who appeals to voters from both parties.

It is no secret that Andy Barr has taken a lot of money from large financial and real estate corporations. Barr has also voted on bills that President Trump supports 97% of the time. Taking these into account, it is no wonder that people of Kentucky’s 6th district don’t feel connected to their representative. Meanwhile, McGrath has shown that she is receptive to the wishes of the people, and it shows. McGrath has outraised Barr in campaign funds, and a large percentage of that comes from individual contributions under $200. It is evident that people in Kentucky feel invested in McGrath’s campaign, which will give her a huge advantage going into the voting booths.

Andy Barr has shown time and time again that he is a typical Republican. His stances echo the normal stances of his party. As a result, Democratic voters would be unwilling to vote for him. McGrath, however, has shown herself to be a moderate candidate, with views on both sides of the aisle. Conservatives and liberals alike can find something in McGrath that they agree with, and therefore, she will not only get votes from typically Democratic voters, but from typically Republican voters as well. This is evident on her stance on abortion, where she claims to take the middle path by supporting abortion as well as believing there should be restrictions.

It can be argued that none of this matters. Kentucky is a heavily Republican state that voted Trump in the 2016 election with a 30 point lead, and Barr has received the support of the president himself. Republican voters greatly outnumber Democratic voters, and Barr has done a good job of painting McGrath as too liberal for Kentucky in attack ads.

However, McGrath’s widespread appeal, honorable military service, and connection to the people will give her a large advantage in one of Kentucky’s more liberal districts, even if the district is still largely Republican.

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KENTUCKY 6TH DISTRICT HOUSE RACE: OUR PREDICTION

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KENTUCKY 6TH DISTRICT HOUSE RACE: OUR PREDICTION

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One issue of contention in the KY-6 House District race has been Healthcare.

For Amy McGrath, affordable healthcare is a must for a civilized society. She strongly supports the Affordable Care Act.

Barr has voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act many times, calling it “a 2700-page job destroyer”. Barr prefers free-market based health insurance over federal health insurance.

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Perhaps the greatest issue on the campaign trail in Kentucky’s 6th district has been whether the candidates would support the party’s wishes, or the people’s wishes.

Amy McGrath has been the target of negative attack ads by Barr containing clips where she called herself “the most progressive person in the state of Kentucky.” McGrath denies this, saying that the clip was taken out of context. Furthermore, McGrath also stated that the Democrats supported her opponent in the primary, and presents herself as a multi-faceted candidate with opinions on either side of the spectrum.

Barr has been criticized for simply being a puppet of the Republican party. He voted for legislation that Trump supported 97% of the time. Barr has fired back by stating that Kentucky’s economy is doing better than ever, and that they are accomplishing significant legislative goals.

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A minor, but no less significant issue in the race has been each candidate’s stance on abortion.

In attack ads by Andy Barr, McGrath was claimed to support late-term and nine-month abortions. McGrath has denied this, claiming that there was no evidence to back up the statement. She describes herself as pro-choice, but admits that there should be restrictions on abortion.

Andy Barr considers himself pro-life, even going so far as to say that unborn babies should be protected under the 14th amendment. Barr also opposes providing birth control to women.

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Let's look at some of the ISSUES that this race is debating

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Let's look at some of the ISSUES that this race is debating

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McGrath has received an endorsement from Democratic congressman Seth Moulton from Maine, who flew to Kentucky to help her campaign.

McGrath has been endorsed by the United Steelworkers, and by the Kentucky Herald-Leader, who described her as careful, disciplined, reasonable, and impressively positive.

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Andy Barr has received a personal endorsement from President Donald Trump, and his son, Donald Trump Jr., will campaign for Andy Barr on November 5th, the day before the elections.

Andy Barr has also been endorsed by some organizations such as the National Rifle Association, National Right to Life, Kentucky Professional Firefighters, and the National Vietnam & Gulf War Veterans.

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Donald Trump won the 6th district with 55% of the votes in the 2016 Presidential Election (Clinton received 39%)

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                                             Amy McGrath

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                                             Amy McGrath

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Amy McGrath has received around 25% ($1.8million) of her campaign funds from small individual donations under $200, outnumbering the amount of PAC money she has made, which totals only 4% ($300,000).

McGrath has also self-financed her campaign with $3,573.

The rest of the money McGrath has made comes from large individual contributions, chief among them from Universities. The top two individual donations to McGrath’s campaign came from the University of Kentucky ($68,115) and the University of California ($31,421). Harvard College has also donated $18,502.

McGrath loves to boast about she’s running a campaign for the people, and criticize Barr’s financial connections. Her donations back up this claim, as unlike Barr, she personally donated to her own campaign. She also received nearly a quarter of her money from small individual contributions, mostly people of Kentucky.

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Andy Barr has been the recipients of several PACs and has received a total of $1,892,784 in the 2018 cycle from PACs alone. He received almost $800,000 from Finance, Real Estate, and Insurance industries alone.

Barr has received a large amount of money from the Securities and Investment Industry. Top contributors to the Republican party in this industry include the Blackstone Group, Citadel LLC, and Elliott Management.

These top investors indicate that Barr either has a friendly relationship with top financial organizations, or that they believe he represents their interests.

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10/6-10/8: Taken by Public Opinion Strategies, Barr leads the race by 2% (48-46)

Margin of Error: 4.9, fairly high within the acceptable range

Sample: 400 RV, small sample size, and of Registered Voters who may or may not be likely to vote.

Source: Public Opinion Strategies is a neutral organization. However, their roots are in campaign strategy, and they claim their research is focused on getting results. As a result, this poll is also fairly untrustworthy, especially when you factor in the high margin of error and use of Registered Voters over Likely Voters.

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9/30-10/2: Taken by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, Amy McGrath leads the race by 7% (51-44)

Margin of Error: 4.5, slightly high but within an acceptable range

Sample: 501 LV, sample size is on the small side of average.

Source: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group is a partisan polling organization that provides polls for “Democratic candidates and progressive causes”. As a result, this source is highly partisan, and when combined with the outlandish result, it paints a clear picture that this poll cannot be trusted.

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"By a faction, I understand a number of citizens, whether amounting to a majority or a minority of the whole, who are united and actuated by some common impulse of passion, or of interest, adversed to the rights of other citizens, or to the permanent and aggregate interests of the community.."         -Alexander Hamilton

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Cruz, Ted, director. Stand. YouTube, YouTube, 12 Sept. 2018,
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKl8Kfi1_Mo.

“Data on Campaign Finance, Super PACs, Industries, and Lobbying.”
OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/.

OnTheIssues.org. “OnTheIssues.org - Candidates on the Issues.”
OnTheIssues.org - Candidates on the Issues, www.ontheissues.org/.

“Emerson Poll: West Virginia Senate Race Tightens as Texas Senate Race Remains Close; Republicans Look to Hold Three House Seats in WV.” Emerson College, 1 Nov. 2018, www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv#.W9r91pNKiUl.

Fink, Jack, and Geoff Petrulis. “Wave Not So Blue in Texas; Cruz, Abbott Pull Ahead In Latest Poll.” CBS Dallas / Fort Worth, 30 Oct. 2018, dfw.cbslocal.com/2018/10/30/cruz-abbott-pull-ahead-in-latest-poll/.

“CNN Texas Senate Race Poll.” CNN, CNN, 16 Oct. 2018, cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/10/16/rel1_tx.pdf.

Staff, Washington Post. “Texas Primary Election Results 2018:
Governor, Senate and House Races.” The Washington

Post, WP Company, 26 Oct. 2018,
www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/texas-march-6/2018-
primary-results/?utm_term=.d286c95de527.

State of Texas - Secretary of State. “Texas Secretary of State World
Wide Web Homepage.” Texas Secretary of State,

www.sos.state.tx.us/.

Texas, Beto for, director. Showing Up . YouTube, YouTube, 26 July
2018, www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZUFA67aS1Q.

“For U.S. Senate: Beto O'Rourke.” HoustonChronicle.com, Houston Chronicle, 20 Oct. 2018, www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/recommendations/article/Senate-Beto-ORourke-Ted-Cruz-2018-endorsement-13320986.php.

El Paso Times Editorial Board. “Texas Needs More Bipartisanship: We Endorse Beto O'Rourke for US Senate.” El Paso Times, El Paso Times, 21 Oct. 2018, www.elpasotimes.com/story/opinion/2018/10/21/texas-needs-more-bipartisanship-we-endorse-beto-orourke-senate/1712587002/.

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Our group predicts that Ted Cruz will win the Texas Senate Race in the 2018 Midterms because he has the support of Republican leadership in a state that voted for Donald Trump, and because Beto O'Rourke's stance on immigration does not resonate with the majority of Texas.

In the past, Ted Cruz has been a polarizing figure in the Republican party. However, the support of Donald Trump, Mike Pence, and Republican leadership in the senate is a large advantage in a state that voted for Trump by 8 points. Voters who are satisfied with Trump or the work of the Republican party may be swayed to vote for a candidate they don’t support on the basis of party support alone.

Ted Cruz has maintained a hardline stance against illegal immigration, but Beto O’ Rourke has argued that our current immigration policies lack compassion, and that we need to make it easier for people to enter the country. While this stance resonates with a sizeable amount of Texas voters, the majority of Texans believe that immigration is an epidemic. With recent fears being stoked about the caravan, Ted Cruz’s stances will earn him a lot of support.

It can be argued that Beto O’ Rourke has a real chance of winning because he appears compassionate, honest,  and down to Earth. He has visited every county in Texas, and in debates, he is quick to point out lies in his opponent’s argument. His honesty, compassion, and charm resonates with the voter base, especially when his opponent has been painted as a liar and criminal by the President in the past.

However, even though Beto is winning on charm, Ted Cruz has garnered more support for his policies and accomplishments from a largely Republican state. Even the most generous polls show Beto O’ Rourke losing comfortably, and that is no coincidence. In its current state, Texas is unwilling to support a Democratic candidate.

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                                         BIBLIOGRAPHY

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A contested but less focused-on issue is Climate Change.

Beto O’ Rourke believes that man-made climate change is a real problem. He supports the Paris Climate Agreement, as well as renewable energy. This stance is consistent with the Democratic Party.

Ted Cruz believes there is not enough evidence to support the notion that man-made climate change is occurring. He supported the President’s decision to pull out from the Paris Climate Agreement. This stance is fairly consistent with the Republican Party.

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Another heavily contentious issue on the campaign trail has been Healthcare.

Beto O’ Rourke has voted in favor of the Affordable Care Act as a member of the House. He believes that everyone should be given healthcare, and that everyone should be able to pay for it. O’ Rourke has claimed many times that Ted Cruz is trying to take Texans’ healthcare away. This stance is consistent with the party at large.

Ted Cruz has voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act multiple times. He believes there should be a different and smarter solution to healthcare. He has supported certain elements of the ACA, mainly coverage for pre-existing conditions. This stance is consistent with the party at large.

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One of the most contentious issue of the Texas Senate Race has been immigration.

Coming from a border city made of immigrants, Beto O’ Rourke has made a firm stance supporting compassionate and comprehensive border reform. O’ Rourke also wants to make Dreamers into U.S. Citizens. Democrats generally agree with this ideology, but Beto O’ Rourke considers it one of his number one issues.

Ted Cruz has maintained a similar stance to most of his fellow Republican lawmakers. He supports strong and protected borders, deportation of illegal immigrants, and has taken a negative stance on the “caravan”.

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Let's look at some ISSUES that this race is debating

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Let's look at some ISSUES that this race is debating

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O’ Rourke has been endorsed by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Whip Dick Durbin, as well as other prominent Democratic senators like Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren. This is to be expected, as Democratic voters will be likely to vote for O’ Rourke with the support of prominent Democrats.

Interestingly, many celebrities have chosen to endorse O' Rourke unlike Cruz. Kevin Bacon, Stephen King, Mark Ruffalo, Ron Perlman, Sarah Jessica Parker, and Aubrey Plaza have all chosen to endorse Beto O’ Rourke. This is important because people who follow these celebrities will listen to them and may be encouraged to vote by their support.

Many Texas newspapers such as the Austin Chronicle, the Houston Chronicle, the El Paso Times, and Dallas Morning News have endorsed O’ Rourke. People who read newspapers either in paper or online may be moved to vote for Beto O’ Rourke.

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Cruz has been endorsed by many prominent Republicans, including President Donald Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, senior Texas legislator and Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, and Texas Governor Greg Abbot t. This is important because Texas is a largely Republican state, and those who are satisfied with the work the Republican party is doing will be inclined to vote for Ted Cruz even if they don’t support him as an individual.

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Which presidental candidate won the state of Texas?

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Which presidental candidate won the state of Texas?

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1. Donald Trump won the state of Texas with 52.23% of the votes in the 2016 Presidential Election.

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Beto O’ Rourke is the #1 recipient of funds from exclusively Democratic/Liberal organizations and interest groups such as “Swing Left”.

O’ Rourke has received almost no money from PACs, and all of the PAC money spent was by Candidate Committees such as “Jim Himes for Congress”.

Much like Ted Cruz, the types of organizations spending money on Beto O’ Rourke’s race has indicates a high level of national attention that outweighs state-level participation.

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Ted Cruz has been the top recipient of funding from exclusively conservative/Republican interest groups such as the “American Action Network” and “One Nation”, both national groups.

Ted Cruz has also been the top recipient of funds from Gun Rights organizations, most notable the National Rifle Association (NRA)

In general, Ted Cruz has been receiving most of his funds from national or party organizations, not from state organizations. This shows that the entire Republican party has a huge interest in the outcome of this race.

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9/6 to 9/8: Compiled by The New York Times, Andy Barr leads the race by 1% (47-46) Likely toss up.

Margin of Error: +4.9, a fairly high MoE, cause for concern

Sample: 506 people, sample is within an acceptable range of people.
Source: Conducted by the New York Times Upshot and Siena College. The New York Times leans left on the political spectrum. The poll was taken a few months back, so whether or not it still applies is in question. In addition, the margin of error was quite large. This poll cannot be used reliably to predict the winner of the race, but gives insight into how it has changed over time.

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Kentucky does not offer early voting. Voter ID law is required to vote under most circumstances. Without Voter ID, you may fill out a provisional ballot, which may or may not be counted come Election Day. Kentucky does offer online voter registration, and people can vote by mail. Kentucky does also offer absentee ballets.

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In the 2016 Presidential Election, 59.1 percent of the electorate in Kentucky turned out to vote, with 54% of those who voted being women.
In the 2012 Midterms, approximately 59.7% of the Voting Age Population turned out to vote.

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Kentucky is home to 4.4million proud Kentuckians. 

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Kentucky is home to 4.4million proud Kentuckians. 

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Kentucky’s 6th district is mostly white, and the average citizen makes between 50-75 thousand dollars. The largest percentage of workers in this district work in education. 90% of people in this district are high-school educated, opposed to ~85% statewide. 31.7% of people have at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to 22.7% statewide. In this district alone of Kentucky, citizens are more educated than the national average! The district itself has been highly contested every election and has flopped since the 1970’s.

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McGrath believes that man-made climate change is occurring, wants stronger gun-control, supports renewable energy and the jobs it would create, and strongly supports the ACA.
McGrath’s candidacy is not fully supported by her party.  She was a registered independent prior to running. McGrath was a former member of the NRA, but dropped out prior to running as well.

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Andy Barr strongly believes in limited government and supports agriculture and manufacturing industries in Kentucky. Most notably, he opposes the ACA, which has been a big point of contention with McGrath. He is a moderate Republican in that his views are unremarkable for those in his party.

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"We electors have an important constitutional power placed in our hands; we have a check upon two branches of the legislature..."                                                                                                                                                                                                   ~John Adams

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10/28 - 10/30: Taken by Emerson, Cruz 3 points ahead (50-47)
Margin of Error: 3.7, pretty good range, Sample: 781 Likely Voters, sample size is within an acceptable range.

Source:  There is no strong bias to either party from this source. The sample size and margin of error are acceptable and the poll is recent. The result does raise some eyebrows because of the outlier result, creating a sharp contrast between the Dixie Strategies poll taken just 2 days earlier.

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10/25 to 10/26: Taken by CBS/Dixie Strategies, Cruz 10 points ahead (52-42)

Margin of Error: 4.0, acceptable Margin of Error
Sample: 588 Likely Voters, sample size is a little small
Source: The source does not seem to have a large political bias but the poll’s credibility is called into the question by the small sample and outlier result. According to this poll, within the most generous scenario, O’ Rourke is unlikely to win.

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10/9 to 10/13: Taken by CNN, Ted Cruz 7 points ahead (52-45)

Margin of Error: 4.5, fairly high but within an acceptable range.

Sample: 716 Likely Voters, sample size is acceptable

Source: CNN is a fairly liberal organization, but seeing as this poll doesn’t seem to give Beto O’ Rourke a sizable advantage over other polls, it is fairly reliable. However, the poll was taken almost a month ago, relevance is questionable.

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Texas has strict voter ID laws for all elections, and voting by mail is not standard practice. Early voting is available in Texas for approximately two weeks, starting in October. Texas offers provisional and absentee ballots.

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In the 2016 Presidential Election, ~60% of registered Texan voters turned out, equivalent to ~46.5% of the Voting Age Population.

In the 2014 Midterms, by contrast, only 36.4% of the Voting Age Population voted.

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Andy Barr won the Republican primary on May 22 with 82.3% of the votes.
Amy McGrath won the Democratic primary narrowly with 48.7% while her Democratic primary opponent Jim Gray had 40.5%.

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Andy Barr: Incumbent Republican
v.
Amy McGrath: Challenger Democrat

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Andy Barr is the incumbent Senator and has been re-elected 3 times since 2012 and he’s running for reelection again this year 2018 for the 4th time. Andy Barr has been a member of the Financial Services Committee.
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Amy McGrath was commissioned as Second Lieutenant in the US Marine Corps, and became the first woman to fly F-18 on a combat mission in Afghanistan. She flew a total of 89 missions before retiring.

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Approximately 28.3 million people live in Texas. Of those people, 40% identify as Hispanic and Latino, far greater than the rest of the US. 35% speak a language other than English at home.

Beyond that, Texans make about the same amount of money as the average citizen of the United States. However, they are twice as likely (20% vs 10%) to not have health insurance before age 65.

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Beto O’ Rourke is a good fit with the Democratic party platform, while he does stray further left than the average, he works well with his fellow lawmakers in the Democratic party.

Ted Cruz has been a polarizing figure in the Republican party, often straying from the party line and portraying a further right ideology than the party generally appeals to.

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Beto O’ Rourke is a former member of the House of Representatives from El Paso. 2018 is his first bid for Senator of Texas.

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Ted Cruz is the incumbent Senator, finishing up his first term in the Senate. Cruz was formerly the Solicitor General for the state of Texas.

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Ted Cruz: Incumbent Republican v. Beto O’ Rourke: Challenger Democrat

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Ted Cruz: Incumbent Republican v. Beto O’ Rourke: Challenger Democrat

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In the Republican Primary, Ted Cruz won 85.3%.In the Democratic Primary, Beto O’ Rourke won 61.8%.

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  KENTUCKY 6th DISTRICT                                      

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  KENTUCKY 6th DISTRICT                                      

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House Race