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MÉDIATIQUE: Rendre possible ce qui est nécessaire

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MÉDIATIQUE: Rendre possible ce qui est nécessaire

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CLAUDE LAROSE ET CLAUDE CANTIN, ex-présidents du Réseau de transport de la capitale

Le transport en commun = réduire les gaz à effet de serre.

"Nous estimons aujourd’hui que l’heure est venue d’accroître la part modale du transport en commun, contribuant ainsi à réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES)."

Le projet du tramway de Québec = réduire les gaz à effet de serre.

"Ce projet innovant du tramway dispose donc de toute la légitimité nécessaire comme grande infrastructure vouée à la lutte contre les changements climatiques et bénéficiant des deniers des gouvernements du Québec et du Canada."

"Renoncer au tramway, c’est continuer de miser, à grands frais de fonds publics, sur le transport routier qui, au Québec, représente la source la plus importante de GES, soit 34 % des émissions totales¹."

Resistance aux changements des modes de vie.

"À nos yeux, la résistance au projet de tramway s’explique en partie par la résistance au changement face aux habitudes de déplacement de la population."

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Tramway à Québec | Rendre possible ce qui est nécessaire

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Lettre ouverte adressée aux élues et élus de la Ville de Québec, de l’Assemblée nationale et de la Chambre des communes

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Agence science presse (Pascal Lapointe (Rédacteur en chef), 8 décembre 2023)

Conférence de Dubai sur les changements climatiques.

30 novembre au 12 décembre

Les lobbyistes des carburants fossiles étaient 2456, soit quatre fois plus que le précédent record. -> représentent malgré cela plus de personnes que les plus grosses délégations nationales, à l’exception de celles des Émirats arabes unis (4409) et du Brésil (3081)

c’est la première année que la COP exige des inscrits qu’ils indiquent leur employeur, alors que les années précédentes, un nombre indéterminé était simplement inscrit parmi les délégués de leurs pays respectifs. = enlève leur crédibilité

Certes, ils ne participent pas aux différentes négociations en cours (celle sur le texte final, sur le nouveau fonds sur les pertes et dommages, sur les réductions des émissions de méthane, etc.). MAIS influence sur résultat final car "plusieurs ont certainement l’oreille de leurs délégués nationaux."

ex. 28 de ces représentants de l’industrie font partie de la délégation canadienne

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Selon une analyse des listes publiques d'inscrits publiée le 5 décembre par un groupe militant ( Kick Big Polluters Out), ils sont 2456, soit quatre fois plus que le précédent record. Ils étaient 636 à la COP de l'an dernier à Charm el-Cheikh, en Égypte, et 503 l'année d'avant à Glasgow, en Écosse. Toutefois, il y a un progrès, notent les auteurs de l'analyse: c'est la première année que la COP exige des inscrits qu'ils indiquent leur employeur, alors que les années précédentes, un nombre indéterminé était simplement inscrit parmi les délégués de leurs pays respectifs.

L'analyse a défini comme " lobbyiste des carburants fossiles " une personne associée à une compagnie ou une fondation du secteur, ou à une association représentant les intérêts du pétrole, du gaz ou du charbon.

La nouvelle a provoqué des réactions négatives, et pas seulement dans les cercles environnementaux. L'an dernier, une coalition de 126 organisations de la société civile avait signé une déclaration commune, en prévision de la COP27, en appelant à ce que l'organisme des Nations unies qui chapeaute les COP (la Convention-cadre des Nations unies sur les changements climatiques) " se protège contre l'influence indue des intérêts des pollueurs ".

À titre de comparaison, bien que le nombre total d'inscrits à la COP28 cette année soit anormalement élevé, ces 2456 lobbyistes représentent malgré cela plus de personnes que les plus grosses délégations nationales, à l'exception de celles des Émirats arabes unis (4409) et du Brésil (3081). Tous ces chiffres sont provisoires: ils représentent tous les gens qui ont obtenu une accréditation pour la COP28, mais il est possible qu'un certain nombre d'entre eux ne viennent pas.

L'influence directe qu'ont ces lobbyistes est presque impossible à mesurer, notent les observateurs. Certes, ils ne participent pas aux différentes négociations en cours (celle sur le texte final, sur le nouveau fonds sur les pertes et dommages, sur les réductions des émissions de méthane, etc.). Mais plusieurs ont certainement l'oreille de leurs délégués nationaux. Chose certaine, 28 de ces représentants de l'industrie font partie de la délégation canadienne et 26 de la délégation française, dont le PDG de TotalEnergies.

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Ces lobbyistes du pétrole qui s'inscrivent à la COP28

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La COP28 ne passera pas seulement à l'histoire pour son nombre record d'inscrits (au moins 97 000) mais aussi pour son nombre record de... lobbyistes des carburants fossiles

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MÉDIATIQUE: Des hivers de plus en plus chaud

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MÉDIATIQUE: Des hivers de plus en plus chaud

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Florence Dancause, Journaliste

Selon les données de Changement climatique Canada (ECCC)

Le ECCC prévoit un hiver plus chaud qu'à l'habitude car:

« Les changements climatiques d’origine humaine et un fort El Niño contribuent tous deux à ce réchauffement »,

C'est une tendance qui se poursuivra car:

"Mais ce sont les changements climatiques provoqués par les humains qui ont le plus d’impact. « Au cours des dernières décennies, le Canada s’est considérablement réchauffé durant l’hiver, en particulier dans le nord du pays. » L’hiver canadien s’est réchauffé de près de 3 °C depuis 1948, et ce sont près de 2 °C qui sont attribuables aux changements climatiques causés par les humains, selon l’agence fédérale."

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Titulaire d'un baccalauréat en journalisme de l'Université du Québec à Montréal, Florence Dancause a effectué des stages à Radio-Canada et au magazine Châtelaine, avant de se joindre à La Presse en septembre 2019.

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United States Environmental Protection Agency,  agence indépendante

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SCIENTIFIQUE :  Changements climatiques EPA

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SCIENTIFIQUE :  Changements climatiques EPA

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Les changements climatiques ont une influence sur de nombreux secteurs, notamment sur l’agriculture, les écosystèmes, les milieux côtiers ...

Secteur écosystémique:

les changements climatiques...

sont un stresseur important qui contribue à des extinctions d’espèces

augmentent la diffusion des pathogènes, parasites et maladies

modifient les niveaux trophiques (réseaux alimentaires), débalançment des écosystèmes, diminution de la biodiversité

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Valérie Boisclair, journaliste

1. Extinctions en chaîne : La destruction des habitats, causée par les activités antrhopiques et les changements climatiques, mène à l'extinction de plusieurs espèces et d'espèces clés dans leurs écosystèmes (l'extinction entraîne l'extinction).

2. Aquifères épuisés : Sur-utilisation des nappes phréatiques (sources non-renouvellables d'eau) à des fins d'agriculture intensive, ce qui mène à l'assèchement du sol.

3. Disparition accélérée des glaciers : Fonte accélérée (plus rapide que dans les deux dernières décennies), ce qui met en danger les écosystèmes et régions qui en dépendent. Un glacier qui fond se transforme en eau qui fait alors fondre d'autres glaciers.

4. Chaleur insoutenable : La faune et la flore sont incapables de s'adapter aux chaleurs extrêmes, ce point de bascule à déjà été atteint par plusieurs pays.

5. Sinistrés privés d'assurances : Les victimes de catastrophes naturelles ne sont pas bien assurées et l'augmentation du nombre de sinistres empire la situation pour les gens frappés à répétition.

6. Les débris dangereux dans l'espace : Trop de débris dans l'espace qui commence à entrer en collision et à détruire les satellites (qui servent à faire plusieurs suivis hydriques).

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Des chercheurs de l'Institute for Environment and Human Security de l'Université des Nations unies (UNU-EHS) ont voulu étendre le concept de point de bascule, souvent évoqué pour parler des risques liés au climat changeant, afin de déterminer les conséquences qui pèsent sur nos systèmes si nos habitudes demeurent inchangées.

Tel que défini par le Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (GIEC), un point de bascule climatique survient lorsqu'un système subit des perturbations, même mineures, qui viennent modifier son état de façon irréversible. Même si les facteurs qui ont mené à ce changement disparaissent, le système ne peut revenir à ce qu'il était initialement.

Si la calotte glaciaire du Groenland fond, le système s'en trouve fondamentalement modifié : on considère alors qu'il a atteint son point de bascule.

Bien que le phénomène d'un système passant d'un état à un autre ait été de tout temps observé dans l'histoire de l'humanité, les chercheurs sont préoccupés par la vitesse " sans précédent " à laquelle se produisent désormais ces changements.

La cible fixée par l'Accord de Paris en 2015, qui appelle les pays à mettre en œuvre des politiques pour limiter le réchauffement global de la température à 1,5 °C par rapport aux niveaux préindustriels, vise à atténuer les risques et les conséquences des changements climatiques. Franchir ce seuil pourrait déclencher plusieurs points de bascule, qui provoqueraient des effets en cascade.

Le même phénomène peut se produire pour d'autres types de systèmes; c'est pourquoi nous parlons plus largement de points de bascule du risque , explique le Dr Jack O'Connor, auteur principal du rapport Interconnected Disaster Risks 2023 , en entrevue à Radio-Canada.

Nous observons que le risque, s'il dépasse un certain seuil, peut nous mener à un nouvel état très différent du précédent et dont les conséquences peuvent être graves sur l'environnement et la sécurité humaine , énonce le Dr O'Connor.

Comme nos systèmes sont intrinsèquement interconnectés, ce qui représente un risque pour l'un représente un risque pour tous les autres, résument les auteurs du rapport.
Plusieurs points de bascule ont déjà été franchis dans certaines régions du monde et se produiront à l'échelle de la planète si nous n'arrivons pas à limiter le réchauffement à 1,5 °C. Et la façon dont nous vivons, présentement, nous mène vers d'autres seuils qui mettent en péril, par exemple, nos systèmes alimentaires et nos ressources, ajoute le Dr O'Connor. Ceux-ci requièrent aussi notre attention.
D'après les chercheurs, ces six points de bascule du risque ont des causes et des moteurs communs, tous ancrés dans nos actions et nos comportements qui exercent une pression croissante sur nos systèmes jusqu'à les pousser au bord de l'effondrement .

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6 risques de points de bascule dont l'humanité se rapproche | Radio-Canada.ca

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Ces changements sont une menace pour les écosystèmes naturels, les systèmes alimentaires, les ressources en eau et les réseaux de transport et d'information.

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MÉDIATIQUE: La surpêche comme ressource épuisée

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MÉDIATIQUE: La surpêche comme ressource épuisée

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L'Aquarium de Vancouver remarque une diminution des ressources poissonnière car: «(...) environ 90% des grands poissons prédateurs ont disparu depuis le début de la pêche industrielle.»

On prévoit une continuité de cette tendance car:

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La chaîne de supermarchés Save-On-Foods propose désormais à ses clients des poissons certifiés Ocean Wise par l'Aquarium de Vancouver. Il s'agit d'une étiquette posée sur l'emballage indiquant que le stock de poisson vendu n'est pas actuellement menacé.

L'entreprise fait maintenant partie d'environ 650 partenaires Ocean Wise au Canada qui veulent faire comprendre aux consommateurs que la surpêche pose un gros danger aux ressources aquatiques.

Le président de l'Aquarium de Vancouver, John Nightingale, affirme que son programme d'étiquetage permet à des millions de consommateurs de s'impliquer dans la protection des océans. Par ailleurs, dit-il, un tiers de personnes interrogées lors de sondages sont conscientes des dangers de la surpêche.

Les critères Ocean Wise requièrent entre autres qu'un poisson soit abondant en mer et qu'il résiste aux pressions de la pêche. Ses prises doivent être limitées et sa récolte ne doit pas gêner d'autres espèces.

D'après l'Aquarium de Vancouver, la consommation de poisson a doublé dans le monde depuis les années 1970 et environ 90 % des grands poissons prédateurs ont disparu depuis le début de la pêche industrielle.

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Save-On-Foods s'implique dans la lutte contre la surpêche

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La chaîne de supermarchés Save-On-Foods propose désormais à ses clients des poissons certifiés Ocean Wise par l'Aquarium de Vancouver. Il s'agit d'une étiquette posée sur l'emballage indiquant que le stock de poisson vendu n'est pas actuellement menacé.

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Philosophique: Éthique et justice climatique : entre motivations morales et

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Philosophique: Éthique et justice climatique : entre motivations morales et

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amorales

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Philosophique : Hubert Reeves contre le gaz de schiste

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Philosophique : Hubert Reeves contre le gaz de schiste

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Hubert Reeves explique qu'il ne faut pas exploiter les énergies fossiles, mais plutôt se tourner vers les énergies vertes.

«Il ne faut pas se lancer dans plus d'exploitation d'énergies fossiles, que ce soit le pétrole, le charbon, le gaz carbonique ou le gaz de schiste. C'est une mauvaise direction.»

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L'astrophysicien Hubert Reeves s'oppose à l'exploitation du gaz de schiste. Il dit craindre le pire pour l'avenir de la planète si les bonnes décisions environnementales ne sont pas prises.

Reconnu pour son implication dans la défense de l'environnement, Hubert Reeves affirme que l'exploitation et l'exploration du gaz de schiste " c'est un mauvais choix au départ " et que " ça augmente la température de la planète ".

" On sait que l'élément fondamental aujourd'hui que l'on doit arrêter, c'est le réchauffement planétaire. Et le gaz de schiste, c'est du méthane. Et le méthane, c'est plus puissant [pour le]réchauffement de la planète que le gaz carbonique. Alors au départ, il aurait fallu à mon avis laisser ça de côté ", a-t-il déclaré lundi sur les ondes de RDI.

Il ne faut pas se lancer dans plus d'exploitation d'énergies fossiles, que ce soit le pétrole, le charbon, le gaz carbonique ou le gaz de schiste. C'est une mauvaise direction.

Interrogé sur le fait que les défenseurs du gaz de schiste estiment qu'il s'agit d'un procédé plus naturel que les sables bitumineux par exemple, M. Reeves répond que le principe fondamental reste le même : il s'agit du mauvais choix.

" Il faut aller vers les énergies renouvelables tous azimuts ", soutient-il.

Par ailleurs, il qualifie " d'encourageante " l'initiative prise par une délégation de citoyens et d'élus municipaux de la vallée du Saint-Laurent de se rendre en Pennsylvanie pour aller mesurer l'impact de l'exploitation du gaz de schiste dans cette région.

" Personne ne connaît l'avenir, mais il faut être déterminé à faire ce qu'on pense, qu'il faut [le] faire quoi qu'il arrive. Ce sont des initiatives qu'on appelle la démocratie participative, et ça, je trouve ça très bien ", a-t-il indiqué.
" Pour l'avenir de nos enfants "
Hubert Reeves se donne pour mission d'intéresser les jeunes à la science et à l'environnement. Il était d'ailleurs de passage au Québec pour rencontrer 1300 jeunes provenant de 22 écoles secondaires, réunis lundi au Théâtre Maisonneuve de la Place des Arts de Montréal.

" Je me fais du souci à savoir dans quel monde ils vont vivre. Il faut se soucier de l'avenir de nos enfants et de nos petits-enfants ", a-t-il conclu.

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L'exploitation du gaz de schiste est " un mauvais choix ", dit Hubert Reeves

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L'astrophysicien Hubert Reeves s'oppose à l'exploitation du gaz de schiste. Il dit craindre le pire pour l'avenir de la planète si les bonnes décisions environnementales ne sont pas prises.

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SCIENTIFIQUE: Running out? Rethinking resource depletion

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SCIENTIFIQUE: Running out? Rethinking resource depletion

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Auteur: Stuart Kirsch, un professeur de l'Université de Michigan

Date: 2020

Résumé: Nous faisons face à un enjeu de taille qui est le réchauffement drastique de notre planète terre. Plusieurs pays comme l'Allemagne embarque dans le bateau et essaie de réduire leur empreinte de carbone sur notre planète. Ils veulent éliminer complétement l'utilisation du charbon dans leur économie afin de limiter leur pollution dans l'environnement.

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Abstract

Since the 1970s, environmentalists have warned that overconsumption, especially of minerals and fossil fuels, will lead to resource depletion. But there are compelling reasons to question the assertion that we are running out. On the one hand, new technologies and discoveries have increased the supply of petroleum and natural gas. On the other, concerns about global climate change and the competitiveness of renewable energy are turning coal into a sunset industry and threaten to transform oil reserves into stranded assets. In contrast to fossil fuels, which are consumed in the process of generating energy, virtually all of the metals excavated in the past remain available even after they have been put to use. Even though the average size and degree of mineralization of recently-discovered ore bodies is on the decline, there has never been as much copper, silver, and gold available for human consumption as there is today. Whether incorporated into digital technology or infrastructure, the majority of metals remain available for recycling, which is generally less expensive, uses less energy, and has fewer environmental impacts than extracting minerals from the earth. The threat posed by climate change from continued use of fossil fuels, and the impacts of environmental degradation caused by resource extraction, demand greater attention than the misleading specter of peak oil or running out of metals.

Keywords: Climate change, Energy, Minerals, Peak Oil, Recycling

1. Introduction

A fundamental axiom of environmental thought since the 1970s is that overconsumption will lead to resource depletion, especially with regard to minerals and fossil fuels, and thereby imperil the future. Avoiding this fate requires moderating the demand for these resources to ensure that adequate supplies will be available to the members of future generations. These ideas were initially advanced by the Limits to Growth manifesto written by scholars affiliated with the Club of Rome (Meadows et al., 1972), and subsequently incorporated into the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development (Mitcham, 1997). Recognition of the importance of recycling and reuse are also driven by these concerns. But in recent years, the Malthusian fear of running out of minerals and fossil fuels has largely been overtaken by concerns about the contribution of greenhouse gas emissions to global climate change and environmental degradation resulting from resource extraction.

2. Access to energy

There are compelling reasons to challenge the assumption that we are about to run out of fossil fuels. Engineers have been predicting the exhaustion of oil and gas supplies for over a century. When the materialist anthropologist Leslie White (1943) argued that the ability to capture ever larger amounts of energy was the driving force behind the evolution of culture, he expressed concern that the rising demand for oil was outpacing new discoveries. Although the oil crisis of the 1970s was more about cartel politics than petroleum shortages, it nonetheless provoked conversations about the end of oil. The first sentence of (Ferry and Limbert, 2008) edited volume on the temporality of resources raised the alarm about peak oil: "Oil is running out. What's more, its final depletion now seems imminent." Such concerns are logical, of course, because fossil fuels are consumed in their use. If more oil is burned than discovered, eventually it will all be gone.

But the reality of the supply side of the equation is that proven energy reserves have increased with the development of new technology making it possible to exploit deposits that were previously unknown or inaccessible. Fracking technology has made oil and gas supplies locked into shale formations available for extraction. Deep sea oil now accounts for nearly one-third of global oil supplies, and the volume of offshore discoveries greatly outstrips new deposits found on land. While the petroleum industry has not overcome the challenges of oil extraction in the Arctic, especially the outsized risks to fragile environments, its task may be eased somewhat by the melting of the polar ice caps, which will open up formerly inaccessible terrain.

Although oil is a finite resource, there are no signs that supplies are drying up. If anything, the trend is moving in the opposite direction, towards oversupply. This became apparent during the oil shock of early 2020, when Russia and Saudi Arabia broke their agreement to maintain oil prices by limiting production. With the expansion of renewable energy, which has become economically competitive with fossil fuels (Hund et al., 2020, p. 32), Saudi Arabia may be re-evaluating its long-term strategy. Protecting its petroleum reserves by capping production rates may not be advisable in the long run if competition from renewables turns these resources into stranded assets, the value of which cannot be recovered. This is already occurring in some sectors of the petroleum market as a result of plummeting demand for oil during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has meant that higher cost sources of oil, including fracking based on cheap money (Mclean 2020) and oil sands, are no longer economically competitive.

Although the threat of peak oil has long managed to perch comfortably on a nearby horizon, never advancing too close or receding too far into the future, it has lost most of its influence over planning or pricing. Far more troubling than running out of oil would be continued dependence on it, in part due to the risks of other accidents like the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico ten years ago, which continues to surprise with the tenacity of its environmental impacts, or the oil spill in Siberia that occurred while I was writing this essay. But even more disconcerting is the contribution of fossil fuel consumption to the myriad of detrimental consequences from global climate change.

In contrast to oil, the story of coal has been one of abundance. Coal fueled the industrial revolution and subsequently provided insurance against the advent of peak oil. Despite coal being synonymous with the past, we asked it to guarantee our future. But the reduction and eventual elimination of coal consumption has become the first priority of the response to climate change due to its disproportionate contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. However, some countries have remained steadfast in their loyalty to coal. In the developing world, China, India, and Indonesia all remain heavy coal users. Australia wants to sell even more coal than it already does to both China and India, but its efforts have become a target of domestic and international criticism. In Eastern Europe, Hungary, and Poland refuse to sacrifice their coal supplies. Japan is one of the few industrialized economies to build new coal-fired power generators, which it used to replace the nuclear power plants taken offline after Fukushima in 2011. In the United States, coal mining has become iconic of the fight between Republicans and Democrats even though it is no longer economically competitive with natural gas or renewable energy (Plumer 2020). Despite the historical identification of union labor and the political left with coal, it has become the target of progressive environmental criticism, fueling climate change denialism on the right. In contrast to lingering coal pessimism on the part of some observers, the conviction that our economies will not be able to function without coal (Eriksen 2016, ), it now appears more likely that we will give up on coal long before it is gone. New investments in coal seek to lock in extraction before the inevitable moratorium, or receive compensation when that day arrives. As one industry observer notes, "Overall, coal is still strong but its expansion is expected to stop and its future is bleak" (Cornot-Gandolphe 2019, p. 6). Like the creative destruction resulting from the digital economy, coal mining is positioned to go the way of fax machines and video stores.

A case in point is Germany, which has the largest economy in the European Union, and draws 35 percent of its power from coal, but recently established a timetable to phase out coal power by 2038 (Egenter and Wehrmann 2019). Between 2019 and 2022, the country will decrease coal use by 12.5 gigawatts. During this time, it plans to convert its reserve generators to natural gas, another 2.3 gigawatts in capacity. From 2023 until 2030, it will reduce coal use by power generators an additional 22.5 gigawatts, which will be replaced by lower-cost renewable energy. Finally, by 2038, and possibly earlier, it plans to end all coal-fired energy generation. Germany hopes to encourage the other countries in the EU still dependent on coal to follow its lead, and to offer technical assistance to developing countries to make this transition as well (see Kirsch 2021). The world is not so much running out of coal as running away from it.

3. Access to minerals and metals

What about metals and minerals? Are we on the verge of running out, especially when considering the demand for new infrastructure to support renewable energy (Hund et al., 2020)? Whereas proven reserves of oil and natural gas have been expanded through the application of new technologies, the conditions differ for minerals and metals. The general consensus is that many of the largest and most accessible ore bodies have already been developed. Recently-discovered ore bodies tend to be smaller in size, to have lower rates of mineralization, and to be located deeper underground. This not only increases the costs of production but also the environmental costs of extraction, as more earth and rock need to be processed per quantity of ore recovered. The disposal of overburden and tailings from open-pit mines, along with the risk from acid mine drainage, have come to haunt the mining industry both in terms of financial obligations for their environmental impacts and the resulting opposition to new projects (Kirsch 2014).

Despite the higher costs and greater environmental impacts, new discoveries of metals and minerals have thus far kept pace with demand. Periodic shortages are almost always revealed to be the result of political bottlenecks or strategic stockpiling. This holds true for most, if not all, minerals. Bauxite, for example, the precursor to aluminum, is a very common element, and the limiting factor for the supply of aluminum is not access to bauxite but rather the accessibility of low-cost energy, as the process of production is energy intensive. Even "rare earth" metals, in demand for everything from cell phones to wind power, are hardly rare. Almost all are refined in China or Malaysia, not because that is where the only deposits are located, but because of differences in environmental regulations and their enforcement. The limiting factor in access to rare earth metals is that they are found in conjunction with radioactive materials, including uranium and thorium, which make them uneconomical to extract and refine according to stricter environmental and health standards.

But even more germane to the question whether we are running out of metals is the fact that, in contrast to fossil fuels, which are consumed in the process of generating energy, the total stock of metals remains largely unchanged by extraction and use rather than being exhausted by it. There has never been more copper, silver, or gold available for human consumption than there is today. Of course, a great deal of the stock of metals is tied up in the cities of the world, but as infrastructure and architecture are renewed, these materials become available again. Whether incorporated into today's digital technology, used for infrastructure, or discarded, the majority of these metals may eventually be recycled, which is generally less expensive, uses less energy, and has fewer environmental impacts than extracting metals from the earth.

4. Conclusion

For nearly fifty years, concerns about resource depletion have motivated environmental politics by advancing the view that human society is at imminent risk of exhausting the supply of fossil fuels and metals needed to maintain our way of life. This concern is manifest in rhetoric about peak oil that continues to circulate despite new discoveries and the availability of econmically competitive forms of renewable energy that threaten to transform existing oil reserves into stranded assets. Coal has already made this transition in many postindustrial countries, and despite its symbolic significance for both the right and the left, is already seen as a sunset industry by most external observers (Cornot-Gandolphe, 2019, p. 6).

Metals and minerals have different life-cycles than energy sources like coal and oil, as they are not consumed in their use. That many recent discoveries are smaller in size and yield lower returns does not mean that we are running out. In contrast, available stocks of metals have been increasing ever since humans first began to exploit them. Virtually all of the metals excavated throughout the course of human history remain available for use through recycling and reuse. We are also gradually transitioning towards a more circular economy in which recycled materials play an expanded role in new production. This trend has already spawned a new movement in design that anticipates the reuse of an object's components in future commodities.

This does not mean that the analysis of the problems posed by unlimited growth identified in the 1970s was wrong then, or should be ignored today, but rather that the risks from climate change and environmental degradation resulting from resource extraction have eclipsed the threat of resource depletion. Moreover, the response to climate change alters the way we make use of fossil fuels. To limit the global temperature rise to 2 °C, while staying as close to 1.5° above preindustrial levels as possible, as stipulated by the Paris Agreement, it will be necessary to replace fossil fuels with renewable sources of energy. Some of these changes will come about as a result of social movement pressure and political change, but they are also being driven by the economic competitiveness of renewables (Hund et al., 2020, p. 32). Similarly, we are less at risk of running out of metals, supplies of which are available through recycling, than we are vulnerable to the environmental impacts from the mining industry (Kirsch 2014).

Rethinking the risk of resource depletion does not imply that we no longer need to manage the earth's resources sustainably. Rather, it encourages us to think about the problems caused by resource extraction in different ways: that the risks posed by the continued use of fossil fuels and the environmental impacts of resource extraction demand greater attention than the misleading specter of peak oil or that the world will run out of these important resources. The shift to renewable sources of energy and the increase in recycling and reuse of metals can help keep the world on track to minimize climate change while limiting environmental degradation from resource extraction.

Acknowledgments

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. It represents the views of the author. I am grateful to Robert Brückmann, Jessica Smith, the editor, and the anonymous reviewer for their valuable comments and suggestions.

Footnotes

² A preliminary version of this argument was first presented at a workshop in 2011 on "History Underground: Environmental Perspectives on Mining" organized by John McNeill and Frank Uekötter at the Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society in Munich.

³Timothy Mitchell (2013, 231) also concludes Carbon Democracy with the assertion that we have entered the "declining decades of the fossil-fuel era" due to diminishing supplies.

⁴ Proven reserves of natural gas have also increased over the last two decades as a result of fracking and offshore drilling, driving prices down.

⁵Investment in new coal-powered generators declined 75 percent from 2015 to 2018 (Fickling, 2019). Decreased energy demand due to the coronavirus pandemic has further reduced coal consumption (Plumer, 2020).

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# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Running out? Rethinking resource depletion

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Since the 1970s, environmentalists have warned that overconsumption, especially of minerals and fossil fuels, will lead to resource depletion. But there are compelling reasons to question the assertion that we are running out. On the one hand, new technologies ...

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François RAMADE : professeur émérite d'écologie à la faculté des sciences d'Orsay, université de Paris-Sud-Orsay

François Ramade émet ce constat et fait part globalement de la situation qui s'est détériorée.

"d'ici à 2050, l'homme va perdre 30 p. 100 des terres cultivables de la planète tandis que, dans le même temps, le nombre d'hommes, pourtant globalement déjà mal nourris, pourrait presque doubler."

Il propose aussi des solutions quant à l'épuisement des ressources naturelles.

"Dès à présent, de nouvelles technologies et un développement systématique du recyclage permettraient d'allonger considérablement les durées d'utilisation des matières premières minérales, comme l'a montré, par exemple, le remplacement du chrome par des matières plastiques pour la construction des pare-chocs dans l'industrie automobile."

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En tant qu'abonnés, vous accédez à Universalis en vous connectant au portail de votre établissement ou de votre bibliothèque.

Si vous êtes un collège ou un lycée français, l'accès se fait via le Médiacentre de votre ENT.
Vous êtes un établissement scolaire, une collectivité, une bibliothèque...

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En tant qu'abonnés, vous accédez à Universalis en vous connectant au portail de votre établissement ou de votre bibliothèque. Si vous êtes un collège ou un lycée français, l'accès se fait via le Médiacentre de votre ENT. Vous êtes un établissement scolaire, une collectivité, une bibliothèque...

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SCIENTIFIQUE: A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures

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SCIENTIFIQUE: A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures

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2022, National Library of Medicine, Environmental Science and Pollution Research Institute

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Abstract

Climate change is a long-lasting change in the weather arrays across tropics to polls. It is a global threat that has embarked on to put stress on various sectors. This study is aimed to conceptually engineer how climate variability is deteriorating the sustainability of diverse sectors worldwide. Specifically, the agricultural sector's vulnerability is a globally concerning scenario, as sufficient production and food supplies are threatened due to irreversible weather fluctuations. In turn, it is challenging the global feeding patterns, particularly in countries with agriculture as an integral part of their economy and total productivity. Climate change has also put the integrity and survival of many species at stake due to shifts in optimum temperature ranges, thereby accelerating biodiversity loss by progressively changing the ecosystem structures. Climate variations increase the likelihood of particular food and waterborne and vector-borne diseases, and a recent example is a coronavirus pandemic. Climate change also accelerates the enigma of antimicrobial resistance, another threat to human health due to the increasing incidence of resistant pathogenic infections. Besides, the global tourism industry is devastated as climate change impacts unfavorable tourism spots. The methodology investigates hypothetical scenarios of climate variability and attempts to describe the quality of evidence to facilitate readers' careful, critical engagement. Secondary data is used to identify sustainability issues such as environmental, social, and economic viability. To better understand the problem, gathered the information in this report from various media outlets, research agencies, policy papers, newspapers, and other sources. This review is a sectorial assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation approaches worldwide in the aforementioned sectors and the associated economic costs. According to the findings, government involvement is necessary for the country's long-term development through strict accountability of resources and regulations implemented in the past to generate cutting-edge climate policy. Therefore, mitigating the impacts of climate change must be of the utmost importance, and hence, this global threat requires global commitment to address its dreadful implications to ensure global sustenance.

Keywords: Climate change, COVID-19, Antimicrobial resistance, Biodiversity, Mitigation measures

Introduction

Worldwide observed and anticipated climatic changes for the twenty-first century and global warming are significant global changes that have been encountered during the past 65 years. Climate change (CC) is an inter-governmental complex challenge globally with its influence over various components of the ecological, environmental, socio-political, and socio-economic disciplines (Adger et al. 2005; Leal Filho et al. 2021; Feliciano et al. 2022). Climate change involves heightened temperatures across numerous worlds (Battisti and Naylor 2009; Schuurmans 2021; Weisheimer and Palmer 2005; Yadav et al. 2015). With the onset of the industrial revolution, the problem of earth climate was amplified manifold (Leppänen et al. 2014). It is reported that the immediate attention and due steps might increase the probability of overcoming its devastating impacts. It is not plausible to interpret the exact consequences of climate change (CC) on a sectoral basis (Izaguirre et al. 2021; Jurgilevich et al. 2017), which is evident by the emerging level of recognition plus the inclusion of climatic uncertainties at both local and national level of policymaking (Ayers et al. 2014).

Climate change is characterized based on the comprehensive long-haul temperature and precipitation trends and other components such as pressure and humidity level in the surrounding environment. Besides, the irregular weather patterns, retreating of global ice sheets, and the corresponding elevated sea level rise are among the most renowned international and domestic effects of climate change (Lipczynska-Kochany 2018; Michel et al. 2021; Murshed and Dao 2020). Before the industrial revolution, natural sources, including volcanoes, forest fires, and seismic activities, were regarded as the distinct sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO ₂, CH ₄, N ₂O, and H ₂O into the atmosphere (Murshed et al. 2020; Hussain et al. 2020; Sovacool et al. 2021; Usman and Balsalobre-Lorente 2022; Murshed 2022). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) struck a major agreement to tackle climate change and accelerate and intensify the actions and investments required for a sustainable low-carbon future at Conference of the Parties (COP-21) in Paris on December 12, 2015. The Paris Agreement expands on the Convention by bringing all nations together for the first time in a single cause to undertake ambitious measures to prevent climate change and adapt to its impacts, with increased funding to assist developing countries in doing so. As so, it marks a turning point in the global climate fight. The core goal of the Paris Agreement is to improve the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping the global temperature rise this century well below 2 °C over pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5° C (Sharma et al. 2020; Sharif et al. 2020; Chien et al. 2021.

Furthermore, the agreement aspires to strengthen nations' ability to deal with the effects of climate change and align financing flows with low GHG emissions and climate-resilient paths (Shahbaz et al. 2019; Anwar et al. 2021; Usman et al. 2022a). To achieve these lofty goals, adequate financial resources must be mobilized and provided, as well as a new technology framework and expanded capacity building, allowing developing countries and the most vulnerable countries to act under their respective national objectives. The agreement also establishes a more transparent action and support mechanism. All Parties are required by the Paris Agreement to do their best through "nationally determined contributions" (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the coming years (Balsalobre-Lorente et al. 2020). It includes obligations that all Parties regularly report on their emissions and implementation activities. A global stock-take will be conducted every five years to review collective progress toward the agreement's goal and inform the Parties' future individual actions. The Paris Agreement became available for signature on April 22, 2016, Earth Day, at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. On November 4, 2016, it went into effect 30 days after the so-called double threshold was met (ratification by 55 nations accounting for at least 55% of world emissions). More countries have ratified and continue to ratify the agreement since then, bringing 125 Parties in early 2017. To fully operationalize the Paris Agreement, a work program was initiated in Paris to define mechanisms, processes, and recommendations on a wide range of concerns (Murshed et al. 2021). Since 2016, Parties have collaborated in subsidiary bodies (APA, SBSTA, and SBI) and numerous formed entities. The Conference of the Parties functioning as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) convened for the first time in November 2016 in Marrakesh in conjunction with COP22 and made its first two resolutions. The work plan is scheduled to be finished by 2018. Some mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce the emission in the prospective of Paris agreement are following firstly, a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, secondly, to aim to limit the rise to 1.5 °C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change, thirdly, on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognizing that this will take longer for developing countries, lastly, to undertake rapid reductions after that under the best available science, to achieve a balance between emissions and removals in the second half of the century. On the other side, some adaptation strategies are; strengthening societies' ability to deal with the effects of climate change and to continue & expand international assistance for developing nations' adaptation.

However, anthropogenic activities are currently regarded as most accountable for CC (Murshed et al. 2022). Apart from the industrial revolution, other anthropogenic activities include excessive agricultural operations, which further involve the high use of fuel-based mechanization, burning of agricultural residues, burning fossil fuels, deforestation, national and domestic transportation sectors, etc. (Huang et al. 2016). Consequently, these anthropogenic activities lead to climatic catastrophes, damaging local and global infrastructure, human health, and total productivity. Energy consumption has mounted GHGs levels concerning warming temperatures as most of the energy production in developing countries comes from fossil fuels (Balsalobre-Lorente et al. 2022; Usman et al. 2022b; Abbass et al. 2021a; Ishikawa-Ishiwata and Furuya 2022).

This review aims to highlight the effects of climate change in a socio-scientific aspect by analyzing the existing literature on various sectorial pieces of evidence globally that influence the environment. Although this review provides a thorough examination of climate change and its severe affected sectors that pose a grave danger for global agriculture, biodiversity, health, economy, forestry, and tourism, and to purpose some practical prophylactic measures and mitigation strategies to be adapted as sound substitutes to survive from climate change (CC) impacts. The societal implications of irregular weather patterns and other effects of climate changes are discussed in detail. Some numerous sustainable mitigation measures and adaptation practices and techniques at the global level are discussed in this review with an in-depth focus on its economic, social, and environmental aspects. Methods of data collection section are included in the supplementary information.

Review methodology

Related study and its objectives

Today, we live an ordinary life in the beautiful digital, globalized world where climate change has a decisive role. What happens in one country has a massive influence on geographically far apart countries, which points to the current crisis known as COVID-19 (Sarkar et al. 2021). The most dangerous disease like COVID-19 has affected the world's climate changes and economic conditions (Abbass et al. 2022; Pirasteh-Anosheh et al. 2021). The purpose of the present study is to review the status of research on the subject, which is based on "Global Climate Change Impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures" by systematically reviewing past published and unpublished research work. Furthermore, the current study seeks to comment on research on the same topic and suggest future research on the same topic. Specifically, the present study aims: The first one is, organize publications to make them easy and quick to find. Secondly, to explore issues in this area, propose an outline of research for future work. The third aim of the study is to synthesize the previous literature on climate change, various sectors, and their mitigation measurement. Lastly, classify the articles according to the different methods and procedures that have been adopted.

Review methodology for reviewers

This review-based article followed systematic literature review techniques that have proved the literature review as a rigorous framework (Benita 2021; Tranfield et al. 2003). Moreover, we illustrate in Fig. 1 the search method that we have started for this research. First, finalized the research theme to search literature (Cooper et al. 2018). Second, used numerous research databases to search related articles and download from the database (Web of Science, Google Scholar, Scopus Index Journals, Emerald, Elsevier Science Direct, Springer, and Sciverse). We focused on various articles, with research articles, feedback pieces, short notes, debates, and review articles published in scholarly journals. Reports used to search for multiple keywords such as "Climate Change," "Mitigation and Adaptation," "Department of Agriculture and Human Health," "Department of Biodiversity and Forestry," etc.; in summary, keyword list and full text have been made. Initially, the search for keywords yielded a large amount of literature.

Since 2020, it has been impossible to review all the articles found; some restrictions have been set for the literature exhibition. The study searched 95 articles on a different database mentioned above based on the nature of the study. It excluded 40 irrelevant papers due to copied from a previous search after readings tiles, abstract and full pieces. The criteria for inclusion were: (i) articles focused on "Global Climate Change Impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures," and (ii) the search key terms related to study requirements. The complete procedure yielded 55 articles for our study. We repeat our search on the "Web of Science and Google Scholars" database to enhance the search results and check the referenced articles.

In this study, 55 articles are reviewed systematically and analyzed for research topics and other aspects, such as the methods, contexts, and theories used in these studies. Furthermore, this study analyzes closely related areas to provide unique research opportunities in the future. The study also discussed future direction opportunities and research questions by understanding the research findings climate changes and other affected sectors. The reviewed paper framework analysis process is outlined in Fig. 2 .

Natural disasters and climate change's socio-economic consequences

Natural and environmental disasters can be highly variable from year to year; some years pass with very few deaths before a significant disaster event claims many lives (Symanski et al. 2021). Approximately 60,000 people globally died from natural disasters each year on average over the past decade (Ritchie and Roser 2014; Wiranata and Simbolon 2021). So, according to the report, around 0.1% of global deaths. Annual variability in the number and share of deaths from natural disasters in recent decades are shown in Fig. 3 . The number of fatalities can be meager-sometimes less than 10,000, and as few as 0.01% of all deaths. But shock events have a devastating impact: the 1983-1985 famine and drought in Ethiopia; the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami; Cyclone Nargis, which struck Myanmar in 2008; and the 2010 Port-au-Prince earthquake in Haiti and now recent example is COVID-19 pandemic (Erman et al. 2021). These events pushed global disaster deaths to over 200,000-more than 0.4% of deaths in these years. Low-frequency, high-impact events such as earthquakes and tsunamis are not preventable, but such high losses of human life are. Historical evidence shows that earlier disaster detection, more robust infrastructure, emergency preparedness, and response programmers have substantially reduced disaster deaths worldwide. Low-income is also the most vulnerable to disasters; improving living conditions, facilities, and response services in these areas would be critical in reducing natural disaster deaths in the coming decades.

The interior regions of the continent are likely to be impacted by rising temperatures (Dimri et al. 2018; Goes et al. 2020; Mannig et al. 2018; Schuurmans 2021). Weather patterns change due to the shortage of natural resources (water), increase in glacier melting, and rising mercury are likely to cause extinction to many planted species (Gampe et al. 2016; Mihiretu et al. 2021; Shaffril et al. 2018).On the other hand, the coastal ecosystem is on the verge of devastation (Perera et al. 2018; Phillips 2018). The temperature rises, insect disease outbreaks, health-related problems, and seasonal and lifestyle changes are persistent, with a strong probability of these patterns continuing in the future (Abbass et al. 2021c; Hussain et al. 2018). At the global level, a shortage of good infrastructure and insufficient adaptive capacity are hammering the most (IPCC 2013). In addition to the above concerns, a lack of environmental education and knowledge, outdated consumer behavior, a scarcity of incentives, a lack of legislation, and the government's lack of commitment to climate change contribute to the general public's concerns. By 2050, a 2 to 3% rise in mercury and a drastic shift in rainfall patterns may have serious consequences (Huang et al. 2022; Gorst et al. 2018). Natural and environmental calamities caused huge losses globally, such as decreased agriculture outputs, rehabilitation of the system, and rebuilding necessary technologies (Ali and Erenstein 2017; Ramankutty et al. 2018; Yu et al. 2021) (Table ​(Table1). 1 ). Furthermore, in the last 3 or 4 years, the world has been plagued by smog-related eye and skin diseases, as well as a rise in road accidents due to poor visibility.

Table 1

Key natural hazards statistics from 1978 to 2020

Climate change and agriculture

Global agriculture is the ultimate sector responsible for 30-40% of all greenhouse emissions, which makes it a leading industry predominantly contributing to climate warming and significantly impacted by it (Grieg; Mishra et al. 2021; Ortiz et al. 2021; Thornton and Lipper 2014). Numerous agro-environmental and climatic factors that have a dominant influence on agriculture productivity (Pautasso et al. 2012) are significantly impacted in response to precipitation extremes including floods, forest fires, and droughts (Huang 2004). Besides, the immense dependency on exhaustible resources also fuels the fire and leads global agriculture to become prone to devastation. Godfray et al. ( 2010) mentioned that decline in agriculture challenges the farmer's quality of life and thus a significant factor to poverty as the food and water supplies are critically impacted by CC (Ortiz et al. 2021; Rosenzweig et al. 2014). As an essential part of the economic systems, especially in developing countries, agricultural systems affect the overall economy and potentially the well-being of households (Schlenker and Roberts 2009). According to the report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, i.e., CH 4, CO ₂, and N ₂O, are increased in the air to extraordinary levels over the last few centuries (Usman and Makhdum 2021; Stocker et al. 2013). Climate change is the composite outcome of two different factors. The first is the natural causes, and the second is the anthropogenic actions (Karami 2012). It is also forecasted that the world may experience a typical rise in temperature stretching from 1 to 3.7 °C at the end of this century (Pachauri et al. 2014). The world's crop production is also highly vulnerable to these global temperature-changing trends as raised temperatures will pose severe negative impacts on crop growth (Reidsma et al. 2009). Some of the recent modeling about the fate of global agriculture is briefly described below.

Decline in cereal productivity

Crop productivity will also be affected dramatically in the next few decades due to variations in integral abiotic factors such as temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, and CO ₂. These all factors are included in various regulatory instruments like progress and growth, weather-tempted changes, pest invasions (Cammell and Knight 1992), accompanying disease snags (Fand et al. 2012), water supplies (Panda et al. 2003), high prices of agro-products in world's agriculture industry, and preeminent quantity of fertilizer consumption. Lobell and field ( 2007) claimed that from 1962 to 2002, wheat crop output had condensed significantly due to rising temperatures. Therefore, during 1980-2011, the common wheat productivity trends endorsed extreme temperature events confirmed by Gourdji et al. ( 2013) around South Asia, South America, and Central Asia. Various other studies (Asseng, Cao, Zhang, and Ludwig 2009; Asseng et al. 2013; García et al. 2015; Ortiz et al. 2021) also proved that wheat output is negatively affected by the rising temperatures and also caused adverse effects on biomass productivity (Calderini et al. 1999; Sadras and Slafer 2012). Hereafter, the rice crop is also influenced by the high temperatures at night. These difficulties will worsen because the temperature will be rising further in the future owing to CC (Tebaldi et al. 2006). Another research conducted in China revealed that a 4.6% of rice production per 1 °C has happened connected with the advancement in night temperatures (Tao et al. 2006). Moreover, the average night temperature growth also affected rice indicia cultivar's output pragmatically during 25 years in the Philippines (Peng et al. 2004). It is anticipated that the increase in world average temperature will also cause a substantial reduction in yield (Hatfield et al. 2011; Lobell and Gourdji 2012). In the southern hemisphere, Parry et al. ( 2007) noted a rise of 1-4 °C in average daily temperatures at the end of spring season unti the middle of summers, and this raised temperature reduced crop output by cutting down the time length for phenophases eventually reduce the yield (Hatfield and Prueger 2015; R. Ortiz 2008). Also, world climate models have recommended that humid and subtropical regions expect to be plentiful prey to the upcoming heat strokes (Battisti and Naylor 2009). Grain production is the amalgamation of two constituents: the average weight and the grain output/m ₂, however, in crop production. Crop output is mainly accredited to the grain quantity (Araus et al. 2008; Gambín and Borrás 2010). In the times of grain set, yield resources are mainly strewn between hitherto defined components, i.e., grain usual weight and grain output, which presents a trade-off between them (Gambín and Borrás 2010) beside disparities in per grain integration (B. L. Gambín et al. 2006). In addition to this, the maize crop is also susceptible to raised temperatures, principally in the flowering stage (Edreira and Otegui 2013). In reality, the lower grain number is associated with insufficient acclimatization due to intense photosynthesis and higher respiration and the high-temperature effect on the reproduction phenomena (Edreira and Otegui 2013). During the flowering phase, maize visible to heat (30-36 °C) seemed less anthesis-silking intermissions (Edreira et al. 2011). Another research by Dupuis and Dumas ( 1990) proved that a drop in spikelet when directly visible to high temperatures above 35 °C in vitro pollination. Abnormalities in kernel number claimed by Vega et al. ( 2001) is related to conceded plant development during a flowering phase that is linked with the active ear growth phase and categorized as a critical phase for approximation of kernel number during silking (Otegui and Bonhomme 1998).

The retort of rice output to high temperature presents disparities in flowering patterns, and seed set lessens and lessens grain weight (Qasim et al. 2020; Qasim, Hammad, Maqsood, Tariq, & Chawla). During the daytime, heat directly impacts flowers which lessens the thesis period and quickens the earlier peak flowering (Tao et al. 2006). Antagonistic effect of higher daytime temperature d on pollen sprouting proposed seed set decay, whereas, seed set was lengthily reduced than could be explicated by pollen growing at high temperatures 40◦C (Matsui et al. 2001).

The decline in wheat output is linked with higher temperatures, confirmed in numerous studies (Semenov 2009; Stone and Nicolas 1994). High temperatures fast-track the arrangements of plant expansion (Blum et al. 2001), diminution photosynthetic process (Salvucci and Crafts‐Brandner 2004), and also considerably affect the reproductive operations (Farooq et al. 2011).

The destructive impacts of CC induced weather extremes to deteriorate the integrity of crops (Chaudhary et al. 2011), e.g., Spartan cold and extreme fog cause falling and discoloration of betel leaves (Rosenzweig et al. 2001), giving them a somehow reddish appearance, squeezing of lemon leaves (Pautasso et al. 2012), as well as root rot of pineapple, have reported (Vedwan and Rhoades 2001). Henceforth, in tackling the disruptive effects of CC, several short-term and long-term management approaches are the crucial need of time (Fig. 4 ). Moreover, various studies (Chaudhary et al. 2011; Patz et al. 2005; Pautasso et al. 2012) have demonstrated adapting trends such as ameliorating crop diversity can yield better adaptability towards CC.

Climate change impacts on biodiversity

Global biodiversity is among the severe victims of CC because it is the fastest emerging cause of species loss. Studies demonstrated that the massive scale species dynamics are considerably associated with diverse climatic events (Abraham and Chain 1988; Manes et al. 2021; A. M. D. Ortiz et al. 2021). Both the pace and magnitude of CC are altering the compatible habitat ranges for living entities of marine, freshwater, and terrestrial regions. Alterations in general climate regimes influence the integrity of ecosystems in numerous ways, such as variation in the relative abundance of species, range shifts, changes in activity timing, and microhabitat use (Bates et al. 2014). The geographic distribution of any species often depends upon its ability to tolerate environmental stresses, biological interactions, and dispersal constraints. Hence, instead of the CC, the local species must only accept, adapt, move, or face extinction (Berg et al. 2010). So, the best performer species have a better survival capacity for adjusting to new ecosystems or a decreased perseverance to survive where they are already situated (Bates et al. 2014). An important aspect here is the inadequate habitat connectivity and access to microclimates, also crucial in raising the exposure to climate warming and extreme heatwave episodes. For example, the carbon sequestration rates are undergoing fluctuations due to climate-driven expansion in the range of global mangroves (Cavanaugh et al. 2014).

The CC-impacted species extinction is widely reported in the literature (Beesley et al. 2019; Urban 2015), and the predictions of demise until the twenty-first century are dreadful (Abbass et al. 2019; Pereira et al. 2013). In a few cases, northward shifting of species may not be formidable as it allows mountain-dwelling species to find optimum climates. However, the migrant species may be trapped in isolated and incompatible habitats due to losing topography and range (Dullinger et al. 2012). For example, a study indicated that the American pika has been extirpated or intensely diminished in some regions, primarily attributed to the CC-impacted extinction or at least local extirpation (Stewart et al. 2015). Besides, the anticipation of persistent responses to the impacts of CC often requires data records of several decades to rigorously analyze the critical pre and post CC patterns at species and ecosystem levels (Manes et al. 2021; Testa et al. 2018).

Nonetheless, the availability of such long-term data records is rare; hence, attempts are needed to focus on these profound aspects. Biodiversity is also vulnerable to the other associated impacts of CC, such as rising temperatures, droughts, and certain invasive pest species. For instance, a study revealed the changes in the composition of plankton communities attributed to rising temperatures. Henceforth, alterations in such aquatic producer communities, i.e., diatoms and calcareous plants, can ultimately lead to variation in the recycling of biological carbon. Moreover, such changes are characterized as a potential contributor to CO ₂ differences between the Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods (Kohfeld et al. 2005).

Climate change implications on human health

Climate change and antimicrobial resistance with corresponding economic costs

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an up-surging complex global health challenge (Garner et al. 2019; Lemery et al. 2021). Health professionals across the globe are extremely worried due to this phenomenon that has critical potential to reverse almost all the progress that has been achieved so far in the health discipline (Gosling and Arnell 2016). A massive amount of antibiotics is produced by many pharmaceutical industries worldwide, and the pathogenic microorganisms are gradually developing resistance to them, which can be comprehended how strongly this aspect can shake the foundations of national and global economies (UNEP 2017). This statement is supported by the fact that AMR is not developing in a particular region or country. Instead, it is flourishing in every continent of the world (WHO 2018). This plague is heavily pushing humanity to the post-antibiotic era, in which currently antibiotic-susceptible pathogens will once again lead to certain endemics and pandemics after being resistant(WHO 2018). Undesirably, if this statement would become a factuality, there might emerge certain risks in undertaking sophisticated interventions such as chemotherapy, joint replacement cases, and organ transplantation (Su et al. 2018). Presently, the amplification of drug resistance cases has made common illnesses like pneumonia, post-surgical infections, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, etc., too difficult and costly to be treated or cure well (WHO 2018). From a simple example, it can be assumed how easily antibiotic-resistant strains can be transmitted from one person to another and ultimately travel across the boundaries (Berendonk et al. 2015). Talking about the second- and third-generation classes of antibiotics, e.g., most renowned generations of cephalosporin antibiotics that are more expensive, broad-spectrum, more toxic, and usually require more extended periods whenever prescribed to patients (Lemery et al. 2021; Pärnänen et al. 2019). This scenario has also revealed that the abundance of resistant strains of pathogens was also higher in the Southern part (WHO 2018). As southern parts are generally warmer than their counterparts, it is evident from this example how CC-induced global warming can augment the spread of antibiotic-resistant strains within the biosphere, eventually putting additional economic burden in the face of developing new and costlier antibiotics. The ARG exchange to susceptible bacteria through one of the potential mechanisms, transformation, transduction, and conjugation; Selection pressure can be caused by certain antibiotics, metals or pesticides, etc., as shown in Fig. 5 .

Certain studies highlighted that conventional urban wastewater treatment plants are typical hotspots where most bacterial strains exchange genetic material through horizontal gene transfer (Fig. 5 ). Although at present, the extent of risks associated with the antibiotic resistance found in wastewater is complicated; environmental scientists and engineers have particular concerns about the potential impacts of these antibiotic resistance genes on human health (Ashbolt 2015). At most undesirable and worst case, these antibiotic-resistant genes containing bacteria can make their way to enter into the environment (Pruden et al. 2013), irrigation water used for crops and public water supplies and ultimately become a part of food chains and food webs (Ma et al. 2019; D. Wu et al. 2019). This problem has been reported manifold in several countries (Hendriksen et al. 2019), where wastewater as a means of irrigated water is quite common.

Climate change and vector borne-diseases

Temperature is a fundamental factor for the sustenance of living entities regardless of an ecosystem. So, a specific living being, especially a pathogen, requires a sophisticated temperature range to exist on earth. The second essential component of CC is precipitation, which also impacts numerous infectious agents' transport and dissemination patterns. Global rising temperature is a significant cause of many species extinction. On the one hand, this changing environmental temperature may be causing species extinction, and on the other, this warming temperature might favor the thriving of some new organisms. Here, it was evident that some pathogens may also upraise once non-evident or reported (Patz et al. 2000). This concept can be exemplified through certain pathogenic strains of microorganisms that how the likelihood of various diseases increases in response to climate warming-induced environmental changes (Table ​(Table2 2 ).

A recent example is an outburst of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the Republic of China, causing pneumonia and severe acute respiratory complications (Cui et al. 2021; Song et al. 2021). The large family of viruses is harbored in numerous animals, bats, and snakes in particular (livescience.com) with the subsequent transfer into human beings. Hence, it is worth noting that the thriving of numerous vectors involved in spreading various diseases is influenced by Climate change (Ogden 2018; Santos et al. 2021).

Psychological impacts of climate change

Climate change (CC) is responsible for the rapid dissemination and exaggeration of certain epidemics and pandemics. In addition to the vast apparent impacts of climate change on health, forestry, agriculture, etc., it may also have psychological implications on vulnerable societies. It can be exemplified through the recent outburst of (COVID-19) in various countries around the world (Pal 2021). Besides, the victims of this viral infection have made healthy beings scarier and terrified. In the wake of such epidemics, people with common colds or fever are also frightened and must pass specific regulatory protocols. Living in such situations continuously terrifies the public and makes the stress familiar, which eventually makes them psychologically weak (npr.org).

CC boosts the extent of anxiety, distress, and other issues in public, pushing them to develop various mental-related problems. Besides, frequent exposure to extreme climatic catastrophes such as geological disasters also imprints post-traumatic disorder, and their ubiquitous occurrence paves the way to developing chronic psychological dysfunction. Moreover, repetitive listening from media also causes an increase in the person's stress level (Association 2020). Similarly, communities living in flood-prone areas constantly live in extreme fear of drowning and die by floods. In addition to human lives, the flood-induced destruction of physical infrastructure is a specific reason for putting pressure on these communities (Ogden 2018). For instance, Ogden ( 2018) comprehensively denoted that Katrina's Hurricane augmented the mental health issues in the victim communities.

Climate change impacts on the forestry sector

Forests are the global regulators of the world's climate (FAO 2018) and have an indispensable role in regulating global carbon and nitrogen cycles (Rehman et al. 2021; Reichstein and Carvalhais 2019). Hence, disturbances in forest ecology affect the micro and macro-climates (Ellison et al. 2017). Climate warming, in return, has profound impacts on the growth and productivity of transboundary forests by influencing the temperature and precipitation patterns, etc. As CC induces specific changes in the typical structure and functions of ecosystems (Zhang et al. 2017) as well impacts forest health, climate change also has several devastating consequences such as forest fires, droughts, pest outbreaks (EPA 2018), and last but not the least is the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities. The rising frequency and intensity of another CC product, i.e., droughts, pose plenty of challenges to the well-being of global forests (Diffenbaugh et al. 2017), which is further projected to increase soon (Hartmann et al. 2018; Lehner et al. 2017; Rehman et al. 2021). Hence, CC induces storms, with more significant impacts also put extra pressure on the survival of the global forests (Martínez-Alvarado et al. 2018), significantly since their influences are augmented during higher winter precipitations with corresponding wetter soils causing weak root anchorage of trees (Brázdil et al. 2018). Surging temperature regimes causes alterations in usual precipitation patterns, which is a significant hurdle for the survival of temperate forests (Allen et al. 2010; Flannigan et al. 2013), letting them encounter severe stress and disturbances which adversely affects the local tree species (Hubbart et al. 2016; Millar and Stephenson 2015; Rehman et al. 2021).

Climate change impacts on forest-dependent communities

Forests are the fundamental livelihood resource for about 1.6 billion people worldwide; out of them, 350 million are distinguished with relatively higher reliance (Bank 2008). Agro-forestry-dependent communities comprise 1.2 billion, and 60 million indigenous people solely rely on forests and their products to sustain their lives (Sunderlin et al. 2005). For example, in the entire African continent, more than 2/3rd of inhabitants depend on forest resources and woodlands for their alimonies, e.g., food, fuelwood and grazing (Wasiq and Ahmad 2004). The livings of these people are more intensely affected by the climatic disruptions making their lives harder (Brown et al. 2014). On the one hand, forest communities are incredibly vulnerable to CC due to their livelihoods, cultural and spiritual ties as well as socio-ecological connections, and on the other, they are not familiar with the term "climate change." (Rahman and Alam 2016). Among the destructive impacts of temperature and rainfall, disruption of the agroforestry crops with resultant downscale growth and yield (Macchi et al. 2008). Cruz ( 2015) ascribed that forest-dependent smallholder farmers in the Philippines face the enigma of delayed fruiting, more severe damages by insect and pest incidences due to unfavorable temperature regimes, and changed rainfall patterns.

Among these series of challenges to forest communities, their well-being is also distinctly vulnerable to CC. Though the detailed climate change impacts on human health have been comprehensively mentioned in the previous section, some studies have listed a few more devastating effects on the prosperity of forest-dependent communities. For instance, the Himalayan people have been experiencing frequent skin-borne diseases such as malaria and other skin diseases due to increasing mosquitoes, wild boar as well, and new wasps species, particularly in higher altitudes that were almost non-existent before last 5-10 years (Xu et al. 2008). Similarly, people living at high altitudes in Bangladesh have experienced frequent mosquito-borne calamities (Fardous; Sharma 2012). In addition, the pace of other waterborne diseases such as infectious diarrhea, cholera, pathogenic induced abdominal complications and dengue has also been boosted in other distinguished regions of Bangladesh (Cell 2009; Gunter et al. 2008).

Pest outbreak

Upscaling hotter climate may positively affect the mobile organisms with shorter generation times because they can scurry from harsh conditions than the immobile species (Fettig et al. 2013; Schoene and Bernier 2012) and are also relatively more capable of adapting to new environments (Jactel et al. 2019). It reveals that insects adapt quickly to global warming due to their mobility advantages. Due to past outbreaks, the trees (forests) are relatively more susceptible victims (Kurz et al. 2008). Before CC, the influence of factors mentioned earlier, i.e., droughts and storms, was existent and made the forests susceptible to insect pest interventions; however, the global forests remain steadfast, assiduous, and green (Jactel et al. 2019). The typical reasons could be the insect herbivores were regulated by several tree defenses and pressures of predation (Wilkinson and Sherratt 2016). As climate greatly influences these phenomena, the global forests cannot be so sedulous against such challenges (Jactel et al. 2019). Table ​Table3 3 demonstrates some of the particular considerations with practical examples that are essential while mitigating the impacts of CC in the forestry sector.

Climate change impacts on tourism

Moreover, the dependence on imported food items, poor hygienic conditions, and inadequate health professionals are dominant aspects affecting the local terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity. Meanwhile, the greater dependency on ecosystem services and its products also makes a destination more fragile to become a prey of CC (Rizvi et al. 2015). Some significant non-climatic factors are important indicators of a particular ecosystem's typical health and functioning, e.g., resource richness and abundance portray the picture of ecosystem stability. Similarly, the species abundance is also a productive tool that ensures that the ecosystem has a higher buffering capacity, which is terrific in terms of resiliency (Roscher et al. 2013).

Climate change impacts on the economic sector

Climate plays a significant role in overall productivity and economic growth. Due to its increasingly global existence and its effect on economic growth, CC has become one of the major concerns of both local and international environmental policymakers (Ferreira et al. 2020; Gleditsch 2021; Abbass et al. 2021b; Lamperti et al. 2021). The adverse effects of CC on the overall productivity factor of the agricultural sector are therefore significant for understanding the creation of local adaptation policies and the composition of productive climate policy contracts. Previous studies on CC in the world have already forecasted its effects on the agricultural sector. Researchers have found that global CC will impact the agricultural sector in different world regions. The study of the impacts of CC on various agrarian activities in other demographic areas and the development of relative strategies to respond to effects has become a focal point for researchers (Chandioet al. 2020; Gleditsch 2021; Mosavi et al. 2020).

With the rapid growth of global warming since the 1980s, the temperature has started increasing globally, which resulted in the incredible transformation of rain and evaporation in the countries. The agricultural development of many countries has been reliant, delicate, and susceptible to CC for a long time, and it is on the development of agriculture total factor productivity (ATFP) influence different crops and yields of farmers (Alhassan 2021; Wu 2020).

Food security and natural disasters are increasing rapidly in the world. Several major climatic/natural disasters have impacted local crop production in the countries concerned. The effects of these natural disasters have been poorly controlled by the development of the economies and populations and may affect human life as well. One example is China, which is among the world's most affected countries, vulnerable to natural disasters due to its large population, harsh environmental conditions, rapid CC, low environmental stability, and disaster power. According to the January 2016 statistical survey, China experienced an economic loss of 298.3 billion Yuan, and about 137 million Chinese people were severely affected by various natural disasters (Xie et al. 2018).

Mitigation and adaptation strategies of climate changes

Adaptation and mitigation are the crucial factors to address the response to CC (Jahanzad et al. 2020). Researchers define mitigation on climate changes, and on the other hand, adaptation directly impacts climate changes like floods. To some extent, mitigation reduces or moderates greenhouse gas emission, and it becomes a critical issue both economically and environmentally (Botzen et al. 2021; Jahanzad et al. 2020; Kongsager 2018; Smit et al. 2000; Vale et al. 2021; Usman et al. 2021; Verheyen 2005).

Researchers have deep concern about the adaptation and mitigation methodologies in sectoral and geographical contexts. Agriculture, industry, forestry, transport, and land use are the main sectors to adapt and mitigate policies(Kärkkäinen et al. 2020; Waheed et al. 2021). Adaptation and mitigation require particular concern both at the national and international levels. The world has faced a significant problem of climate change in the last decades, and adaptation to these effects is compulsory for economic and social development. To adapt and mitigate against CC, one should develop policies and strategies at the international level (Hussain et al. 2020). Figure 6 depicts the list of current studies on sectoral impacts of CC with adaptation and mitigation measures globally.

Conclusion and future perspectives

Specific socio-agricultural, socio-economic, and physical systems are the cornerstone of psychological well-being, and the alteration in these systems by CC will have disastrous impacts. Climate variability, alongside other anthropogenic and natural stressors, influences human and environmental health sustainability. Food security is another concerning scenario that may lead to compromised food quality, higher food prices, and inadequate food distribution systems. Global forests are challenged by different climatic factors such as storms, droughts, flash floods, and intense precipitation. On the other hand, their anthropogenic wiping is aggrandizing their existence. Undoubtedly, the vulnerability scale of the world's regions differs; however, appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures can aid the decision-making bodies in developing effective policies to tackle its impacts. Presently, modern life on earth has tailored to consistent climatic patterns, and accordingly, adapting to such considerable variations is of paramount importance. Because the faster changes in climate will make it harder to survive and adjust, this globally-raising enigma calls for immediate attention at every scale ranging from elementary community level to international level. Still, much effort, research, and dedication are required, which is the most critical time. Some policy implications can help us to mitigate the consequences of climate change, especially the most affected sectors like the agriculture sector;

1. Seasonal variations and cultivation practices

Warming might lengthen the season in frost-prone growing regions (temperate and arctic zones), allowing for longer-maturing seasonal cultivars with better yields (Pfadenhauer 2020; Bonacci 2019). Extending the planting season may allow additional crops each year; when warming leads to frequent warmer months highs over critical thresholds, a split season with a brief summer fallow may be conceivable for short-period crops such as wheat barley, cereals, and many other vegetable crops. The capacity to prolong the planting season in tropical and subtropical places where the harvest season is constrained by precipitation or agriculture farming occurs after the year may be more limited and dependent on how precipitation patterns vary (Wu et al. 2017).

2. The genetic component is comprehensive for many yields, but it is restricted like kiwi fruit for a few. Ali et al. ( 2017) investigated how new crops will react to climatic changes (also stated in Mall et al. 2017). Hot temperature, drought, insect resistance; salt tolerance; and overall crop production and product quality increases would all be advantageous (Akkari 2016). Genetic mapping and engineering can introduce a greater spectrum of features. The adoption of genetically altered cultivars has been slowed, particularly in the early forecasts owing to the complexity in ensuring features are expediently expressed throughout the entire plant, customer concerns, economic profitability, and regulatory impediments (Wirehn 2018; Davidson et al. 2016).

3. Changes in management and other input factors

To get the full benefit of the CO ₂ would certainly require additional nitrogen and other fertilizers. Nitrogen not consumed by the plants may be excreted into groundwater, discharged into water surface, or emitted from the land, soil nitrous oxide when large doses of fertilizer are sprayed. Increased nitrogen levels in groundwater sources have been related to human chronic illnesses and impact marine ecosystems. Cultivation, grain drying, and other field activities have all been examined in depth in the studies (Barua et al. 2018).

4. The technological and socio-economic adaptation

The policy consequence of the causative conclusion is that as a source of alternative energy, biofuel production is one of the routes that explain oil price volatility separate from international macroeconomic factors. Even though biofuel production has just begun in a few sample nations, there is still a tremendous worldwide need for feedstock to satisfy industrial expansion in China and the USA, which explains the food price relationship to the global oil price. Essentially, oil-exporting countries may create incentives in their economies to increase food production. It may accomplish by giving farmers financing, seedlings, fertilizers, and farming equipment. Because of the declining global oil price and, as a result, their earnings from oil export, oil-producing nations may be unable to subsidize food imports even in the near term. As a result, these countries can boost the agricultural value chain for export. It may be accomplished through R&D and adding value to their food products to increase income by correcting exchange rate misalignment and adverse trade terms. These nations may also diversify their economies away from oil, as dependence on oil exports alone is no longer economically viable given the extreme volatility of global oil prices. Finally, resource-rich and oil-exporting countries can convert to non-food renewable energy sources such as solar, hydro, coal, wind, wave, and tidal energy. By doing so, both world food and oil supplies would be maintained rather than harmed.

IRENA's modeling work shows that, if a comprehensive policy framework is in place, efforts toward decarbonizing the energy future will benefit economic activity, jobs (outweighing losses in the fossil fuel industry), and welfare. Countries with weak domestic supply chains and a large reliance on fossil fuel income, in particular, must undertake structural reforms to capitalize on the opportunities inherent in the energy transition. Governments continue to give major policy assistance to extract fossil fuels, including tax incentives, financing, direct infrastructure expenditures, exemptions from environmental regulations, and other measures. The majority of major oil and gas producing countries intend to increase output. Some countries intend to cut coal output, while others plan to maintain or expand it. While some nations are beginning to explore and execute policies aimed at a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuel production, these efforts have yet to impact major producing countries' plans and goals. Verifiable and comparable data on fossil fuel output and assistance from governments and industries are critical to closing the production gap. Governments could increase openness by declaring their production intentions in their climate obligations under the Paris Agreement.

It is firmly believed that achieving the Paris Agreement commitments is doubtlful without undergoing renewable energy transition across the globe (Murshed 2020; Zhao et al. 2022). Policy instruments play the most important role in determining the degree of investment in renewable energy technology. This study examines the efficacy of various policy strategies in the renewable energy industry of multiple nations. Although its impact is more visible in established renewable energy markets, a renewable portfolio standard is also a useful policy instrument. The cost of producing renewable energy is still greater than other traditional energy sources. Furthermore, government incentives in the R&D sector can foster innovation in this field, resulting in cost reductions in the renewable energy industry. These nations may export their technologies and share their policy experiences by forming networks among their renewable energy-focused organizations. All policy measures aim to reduce production costs while increasing the proportion of renewables to a country's energy system. Meanwhile, long-term contracts with renewable energy providers, government commitment and control, and the establishment of long-term goals can assist developing nations in deploying renewable energy technology in their energy sector.

Author contribution

KA: Writing the original manuscript, data collection, data analysis, Study design, Formal analysis, Visualization, Revised draft, Writing-review, and editing. MZQ: Writing the original manuscript, data collection, data analysis, Writing-review, and editing. HS: Contribution to the contextualization of the theme, Conceptualization, Validation, Supervision, literature review, Revised drapt, and writing review and editing. MM: Writing review and editing, compiling the literature review, language editing. HM: Writing review and editing, compiling the literature review, language editing. IY: Contribution to the contextualization of the theme, literature review, and writing review and editing.

Availability of data and material

Data sources and relevant links are provided in the paper to access data.

Declarations

Ethics approval and consent to participate

Not applicable.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

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A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures

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Climate change is a long-lasting change in the weather arrays across tropics to polls. It is a global threat that has embarked on to put stress on various sectors. This study is aimed to conceptually engineer how climate variability is deteriorating the ...

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Médiatique: freiner le declin de la biodiversité

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Médiatique: freiner le declin de la biodiversité

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Auteurs: Binh An Vu Van (Journaliste scientifique canadienne) et Sylvie Mallard (Réalisatrice du reportage sur le même sujet)

Biodiversité diminue de 70% depuis 1970

Modélisation des possibilités

Trois majeures:

catastrophique, perte de 54% de la densité animale

intermédiaire, biodiversité réaugmente légèrement après 2050

ambitieux, bonne augmentation et rétablissement

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Le grand objectif de la Convention cadre sur la biodiversité biologique, telle que formulée en 2010 par les chefs d'État et les gouvernements, est de vivre en harmonie avec la nature avant 2050. L'objectif est noble, mais difficile à mesurer. C'est pour ça que depuis quelques années, les scientifiques tentent de traduire cette vision en un objectif plus tangible, mesurable. Plus concrètement, comment cette idée pourrait se traduire en termes de tendances, d'indices de biodiversité à l'échelle mondiale? Et il est devenu de plus en plus clair que ça se traduisait par l'idée d'inverser le déclin , explique David Leclère, un spécialiste de modélisation à l'International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, à Vienne en Autriche.

Pour bien comprendre cette idée de renverser le déclin (ou bending the curveen anglais), imaginez cette courbe de la diversité biologique comme un grand toboggan qui descend de manière continue, particulièrement depuis le siècle dernier. L'idée est donc de faire plier ou de renverser cette courbe, afin qu'elle se remette à croître avant 2050. Depuis que cette idée est sur la table, c'est une vision qui est de plus en plus partagée, et qui est maintenant au cœur du nouveau plan pour la biodiversité qui est négocié à Montréal , raconte David Leclère.

Toutefois, est-il vraiment possible d'arrêter cette grande dégringolade de la biodiversité? De stopper l'effondrement de la vie sur Terre avant 2050? Nous avons voulu savoir si cet objectif ambitieux est vraiment réalisable, et quoi faire pour y parvenir. Pour répondre à cette question, David Leclère s'est appuyé sur son expertise en modélisation des sols et, comme la tâche était immense et complexe, il s'est aussi associé avec une soixantaine de chercheurs, issus d'une quarantaine d'équipes de recherche.

Ces modèles informatiques de la biodiversité sont des représentations de la planète. Ils permettent de tester les conséquences de nos choix. David Leclère et ses collègues ont évalué sept scénarios, sept avenirs possibles, élaborés à partir du travail fait depuis des décennies pour modéliser le climat.

Parmi ces possibilités, le scénario usiness as usual est le plus pessimiste, celui où on ne change rien à nos habitudes. Grosso modo, on reproduit ce qu'on connaît de la période historique, la croissance économique, les rendements agricoles, etc. , détaille David Leclère. Dans un scénario intermédiaire, l'humanité augmente ses efforts de restauration et accroît la surface des aires protégées. Le scénario le plus ambitieux, lui, incorpore en plus des modes plus durables, où on produit plus sur moins de terres. À cela s'ajoutent une réduction du gaspillage alimentaire et une diète plus végétale. On remplace la consommation de viande et de lait par des protéines d'origine végétale, à l'exception des régions pour lesquelles on sait qu'il y a clairement une déficience en production de protéines. Aussi, on intensifie de manière soutenable les rendements , ajoute David Leclère.

Ensuite, les modèles évaluent l'effet de chaque scénario sur l'usage des sols d'ici 2050. Ils créent des cartes mondiales, où sont représentées les terres agricoles ainsi que les aires conservées et restaurées. Puis, ces cartes sont introduites dans une autre série de modèles, qui vont cette fois évaluer l'effet de l'usage des sols sur l'état de la biodiversité.

C'est ainsi que les chercheurs ont un aperçu de la biodiversité de l'avenir. Ils obtiennent un ensemble de mesures de l'état de la biodiversité, de ses diverses facettes : la densité des populations animales, les habitats, les risques d'extinction et plusieurs autres. Toutes ces mesures sont ensuite traduites en courbes. Dans un scénario ambitieux, elles peuvent toutes être inversées. Tous les indicateurs peuvent revenir au vert.

Cette infographie représente trois scénarios qui ont été évalués par David Leclère. En bas, la courbe d'évolution de la biodiversité usiness as usual, avec un déclin d'à peu près tous les indicateurs jusqu'à la fin du siècle. On aura perdu au passage 54 % de la densité animale. Au milieu, le résultat d'une augmentation des efforts de conservation et de restauration. On voit un léger redressement. En haut, les approches intégrées ambitieuses. Elles permettent de renverser le déclin avant 2050.

Nous avions l'intuition que l'objectif était réalisable, mais c'est la première fois qu'on a pu démontrer qu'il était réaliste, atteignable , observe David Leclère. Notre recherche envoie un message d'optimisme.

Comment expliquer que nous n'avions pas encore eu cette confirmation jusqu'à tout récemment? Parce que nous ne disposions pas des modèles pour le faire , note David Leclère. La science de la biodiversité a en effet des décennies de retard sur la science du climat, en partie parce que la biodiversité est plus complexe à modéliser, mais ce retard traduit aussi le peu de priorité accordé à ces questions, concède David Leclère.

À lire aussi du même auteur :

Son article Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy publié dans Nature a suscité énormément d'enthousiasme, et a généralisé l'emploi de l'expression bending the curve, ou renverser le déclin. Mais cet article a aussi ajouté une bonne dose de réalisme, car pour atteindre ces objectifs, il faudra mettre en place des changements profonds. Il faut absolument, entre autres, s'engager dans une transformation plus globale d'un système alimentaire, de la ferme à la fourchette , affirme David Leclère.
Il faut accepter sans doute de revoir nos représentations de choix alimentaires. Il améliore le système de production pour les rendre plus performants et plus soutenables. Et sans ces deux facteurs, en fait, on n'arrivera pas à inverser les courbes avant 2050. Bref, sans concertation et ambition à une échelle qu'on n'a encore jamais réussi à obtenir pour l'instant au niveau mondial, on n'arrivera pas à réaliser ce scénario ambitieux.
Les modélisations révèlent aussi que si on se contente d'étendre les aires protégées, sans autre modification dans les modes de production, on pourrait faire face à une augmentation importante des prix agricoles. Par contre, si on met en place des mesures de consommation et de production soutenables, on arrive aussi à quelque part à juguler ces effets-là.

Et à ces efforts doivent s'ajouter ceux pour le climat. Toutes les études qui prennent en compte les évolutions futures de l'usage des sols et celles du climat montrent que si on n'atteint pas les objectifs de Paris, il y a de très fortes chances qu'on n'arrive pas à inverser les courbes de déclin de la biodiversité , note David Leclère.

Le collègue de David Leclère, Piero Visconti, un autre spécialiste en modélisation des sols qui a aussi contribué au cadre mondial pour la biodiversité, note : Bref, c'est certainement possible, mais il faudra toutes les mains sur le volant. Il n'y a pas UN secteur qui pourra sauver à lui seul la biodiversité. Ce n'est pas seulement les choix des consommateurs, ou des changements de production, ou la conservation. Il faut faire tous ces changements pour y arriver. C'est un défi immense , observe-t-il. Cependant, mon impression est que l'article de David Leclère a galvanisé les ONG, les scientifiques et même certains gouvernements. On observe aussi que la Commission européenne a démarré plusieurs projets suite à cette analyse. Je crois que les travaux de David ont permis à plusieurs organisations internationales d'accepter de viser des cibles plus ambitieuses qu'elles ne le faisaient autrefois.

Bref, ces travaux ont rendu les cibles ambitieuses plus acceptables pour certains gouvernements, parce qu'elles sont désormais soutenues par la science. L'idée d'inverser la courbe est à présent infusée dans le premier des quatre grands objectifs du cadre mondial pour la biodiversité qui sera négocié à Montréal. Reste à savoir s'il sera adopté, puis réalisé par les pays membres.

Le reportage de Binh An Vu Van et de Sylvie Mallard est diffusé à l'émission Découverte le dimanche à 18 h 30 sur ICI Radio-Canada Télé.
La photo du tigre malaisien en page couverture est l'œuvre de Saeed Khan Getty Images/AFP.

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Freiner le déclin de la biodiversité, possible? | Radio-Canada.ca

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DÉCOUVERTE - Le cadre mondial propose de freiner le déclin et même de renverser la tendance avant 2050.

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MÉDIATIQUE: La biodiversité, à la fois victime et outil de lutte contre le réchauffement climatique

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MÉDIATIQUE: La biodiversité, à la fois victime et outil de lutte contre le réchauffement climatique

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Auteur: Cyrielle Cabot (Journaliste formée au CELSA)

Cet article explique d’abord le principe d’équilibre au sein de la biodiversité. Il continu ensuite en expliquant que la biodiversité est victime des réchauffements climatiques mais qu’ils sont également l’arme contre les réchauffements:

"C'est un cercle vicieux. La biodiversité est une victime du réchauffement climatique, mais elle est aussi l'un des outils majeurs pour lutter contre", explique Sébastien Barot, chercheur à l'Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD). "Les écosystèmes jouent un rôle majeur dans le stockage du carbone. Les forêts, les zones humides, les mangroves ou encore les eaux profondes sont de vrais puits de CO₂. Quand ils disparaissent, c'est autant d'émissions relâchées dans l'atmosphère", rappelle-t-il. Aujourd'hui, les scientifiques estiment que les terres et l’océan absorbent déjà près de 50 % du CO₂ des émissions humaines.

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Après la COP27 sur le climat, les représentants du monde entier se retrouvent à partir de mercredi à Montréal pour la COP15 Biodiversité, avec un nouveau défi : approuver une feuille de route à même de sauvegarder la nature d'ici 2030. Un enjeu crucial, martèlent les scientifiques, notamment pour le rôle majeur que joue la biodiversité dans la lutte contre le dérèglement climatique, alors même qu'elle en est l'une des premières victimes.

Les populations de vertébrés ont chuté de 69 % en moyenne en moins de 50 ans, alertait le Fonds mondial pour la nature (WWF) dans son dernier rapport "Planète vivante" publié en octobre 2022. En parallèle, la déforestation mondiale atteint des records et environ 40 % des sols de la planète sont dégradés, d'après les chiffres de l'ONU. C'est avec ce constat alarmant que s'ouvrira mercredi 7 décembre, à Montréal, la COP15 Biodiversité, qui affiche un objectif ambitieux : adopter un nouveau cadre mondial pour la sauvegarde de la nature.

"L'enjeu est crucial. Nous vivons actuellement une crise de la biodiversité", martèle Philippe Grandcolas, écologue et directeur de recherche au Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS). "Or, elle est indispensable à la survie humaine. Elle nous sert à nous nourrir, à avoir de l'eau potable et elle joue un rôle majeur sur notre santé. Mais surtout, elle a un rôle indispensable dans l'équilibre de la planète."

Au total, aujourd'hui, selon l'IPBES - les experts biodiversité de l'ONU, l'équivalent du Giec dans le domaine du climat -, 70 % des écosystèmes mondiaux sont dégradés, largement à cause de l'activité humaine, et plus d'un million d'espèces sont menacées de disparition. Chez les vertébrés, qui représentent 5 % des espèces animales connues mais aussi les plus suivies, "notre précédent rapport 'Planète vivante' faisait état d'une chute de 68 % de la population totale en 2020", note Pierre Cannet, directeur du plaidoyer à WWF France. "Perdre 1 % en deux ans, c'est énorme. Pour des espèces déjà peu nombreuses, cela peut signifier l'extinction."

Le dérèglement climatique, une menace de plus en plus forte

Depuis plusieurs années, l'IPBES étudie en détail les causes de cette "crise de la biodiversité". Selon un classement qu'elle a établi, la première menace qui pèse sur les espèces est le changement d'usage des terres et la fragmentation des espaces, notamment en lien avec l'agriculture. Ensuite vient la surexploitation avec la pêche, la chasse ou encore le braconnage. Suit le dérèglement climatique, à égalité avec les pollutions et les espèces invasives.

"Dans la majorité des cas, les facteurs sont en réalité multiples", précise Philippe Grandcolas, membre de l'institution. "Mais le dérèglement climatique est en passe de devenir la menace la plus importante. Plus il s'accentue, plus les écosystèmes sont perturbés, avec des conséquences sur la faune et la flore."

Les exemples ne manquent pas. Depuis trente ans, la population d'éléphants de forêt africains a diminué de 86 %. En cause, en premier lieu, le braconnage et le commerce illégal, responsables de la mort de 20 000 à 30 000 pachydermes chaque année, selon le WWF. Mais avec les sécheresses à répétition induites par le dérèglement climatique, les ressources en eau, vitale pour cette espèce qui en consomme 150 à 200 litres tous les deux jours, viennent à manquer et mettent en péril leur survie.

Même constat pour les tortues luth, en Guyane. En vingt ans, leur population a diminué de 95 %. Un effondrement qui s'explique par la dégradation de leur habitat par les humains et par la pêche illégale. "Mais le dérèglement climatique vient aussi perturber leur reproduction car la température de l'air et du sable influe sur la probabilité que naisse un mâle ou une femme", détaille WWF. La population se retrouve ainsi déséquilibrée au gré des vagues de chaleur successives.

Épisodes de mortalité massive

"Aujourd'hui, il y a peu d'espèces dont on attribue l'extinction uniquement au réchauffement climatique", poursuit Camille Parmesan, directrice de recherche au CNRS et autrice d'un rapport conjoint du Giec et de l'IPBES sur les liens entre réchauffement climatique et biodiversité publié en 2021 - le premier du genre. "C'est le cas du Melomys de Bramble Cay, un petit rongeur qui vivait sur de petites îles entre l'Australie et la Papouasie-Nouvelle-Guinée. Les scientifiques ont montré que sa disparition est due à la submersion de son habitat", détaille-t-elle. "Nous avons aussi relevé la disparition de 92 espèces d'amphibiens, tués à cause de la prolifération d'un champignon. On a la preuve que celui-ci s'est développé parce que le dérèglement climatique, en modifiant les écosystèmes, lui a offert des conditions propices."

Si le nombre d'espèces éteintes à cause du dérèglement climatique reste faible, l'augmentation des phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes provoque aussi de plus en plus d'épisodes de mortalité massive aussi bien chez les mammifères que chez les oiseaux, poissons ou arbres. "En Australie, on a dénombré la mort de 45 000 renards volants, une espèce de chauve-souris, en une seule journée de canicule", s'exclame-t-elle. Autre exemple : cet été, en France, les records de température ont entraîné des phénomènes de canicule marine en Méditerranée, tuant des milliers de poissons et de crustacés.
>> À lire aussi : "Canicule : dans les mers et océans aussi, les espèces suffoquent"
"À cela, il faut ajouter tous les changements de comportement, notamment les migrations, induits par la modification du climat. Certaines espèces essaient de se déplacer vers des milieux qui leur sont plus favorables, perturbant encore les écosystèmes", abonde-t-elle.

La biodiversité, acteur majeur du stockage du carbone

Cette crise de la biodiversité a de multiples conséquences sur les activités humaines. À certains endroits, elle peut perturber une économie dépendant de la pêche ou de la chasse, ou encore avoir des conséquences néfastes sur le secteur du tourisme... Mais surtout, ces évolutions ont des effets sur la régulation du climat.

"C'est un cercle vicieux. La biodiversité est une victime du réchauffement climatique, mais elle est aussi l'un des outils majeurs pour lutter contre", explique Sébastien Barot, chercheur à l'Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD). "Les écosystèmes jouent un rôle majeur dans le stockage du carbone. Les forêts, les zones humides, les mangroves ou encore les eaux profondes sont de vrais puits de CO ₂. Quand ils disparaissent, c'est autant d'émissions relâchées dans l'atmosphère", rappelle-t-il. Aujourd'hui, les scientifiques estiment que les terres et l'océan absorbent déjà près de 50 % du CO ₂ des émissions humaines.
>> À lire aussi : "Déforestation, réchauffement climatique... les arbres aussi sont menacés d'extinction"
"Citons aussi l'eau et les sols, qui filtrent nos pollutions, ou encore les bourdons, qui sont indispensables à la reproduction des végétaux", poursuit-il.

Et toute la biodiversité joue un rôle. "Dans le cas des végétaux, l'impact sur le climat est évident : on voit une forêt brûler, on voit le puits de carbone disparaître", illustre Philippe Grandcolas. "Mais la survie de la planète tient dans un savant équilibre. Disons qu'un groupe de grenouilles meurt subitement dans un habitat donné. Aussi insignifiant que cela puisse paraître, cela aura un impact : en disparaissant, elle modifie les conditions du milieu dans lequel elle vit. Cela peut, par exemple, permettre à d'autres espèces de se développer, mettre à mal la flore et amener progressivement à la destruction de l'écosystème. Celui-ci ne jouera donc plus son rôle de régulation climatique."

Deux crises, une même solution ?

Face à ce constat, tous les spécialistes interrogés par France 24 ont le même message : il faut lutter conjointement contre la crise climatique et la crise de la biodiversité. "On a tendance à traiter les deux séparément. Mais les deux vont de pair. Elles doivent faire l'objet d'un combat commun, avec la même importance", insiste Philippe Grandcolas. "Et pour cela, il faut rendre la place qu'elle mérite à la nature."

À la veille de la COP15, les scientifiques et le WWF appellent ainsi à multiplier les "solutions basées sur la nature". Parmi elles, la principale mesure consiste à augmenter la densité des espaces protégés. Ces derniers couvrent actuellement 17 % des terres et 8 % des océans. "Il faudrait que ce soit entre 30 et 50 % de la planète", estime l'écologue, qui réclame aussi une politique mondiale plus efficace dans la lutte contre la déforestation. Un levier d'action, qui contribuerait à préserver la biodiversité tout en réduisant les émissions de gaz à effet de serre de 0,4 à 5,8 milliards de tonnes de CO ₂ par an, selon l'IPBES.

"Il y a aussi beaucoup de choses à réfléchir du côté de l'agriculture", lance Sébastien Barot. "Nous avons besoin d'une agriculture plus durable, en développant l'agroécologie et l'agroforesterie. Nous pouvons améliorer la gestion des terres cultivées, limiter l'utilisation des engrais... Là encore, cela aiderait à la fois la biodiversité et le climat."

"Mais protéger ne suffit plus. 70 % des terres sont aujourd'hui dégradées. Il est aussi indispensable de mettre en place des politiques plus importantes de restauration des écosystèmes", continue de son côté Camille Parmesan. "Cela permettra de recréer des habitats pour les animaux et les plantes, et les conséquences bénéfiques pour le climat suivront d'elles-mêmes."

"Et tout doit être réfléchi en synergie", insiste la directrice de recherche au CNRS. "Par exemple, il ne faut plus planter des arbres uniquement pour compenser son empreinte carbone. Il faut le faire en réfléchissant à l'équilibre des écosystèmes. Car les grandes plantations en monocultures ne sont pas bonnes pour la biodiversité. D'ailleurs, elles ne sont pas très bonnes non plus pour le climat car elles sont plus vulnérables aux aléas climatiques..."

Au total, estiment les trois scientifiques, "les solutions fondées sur la nature pourraient fournir environ un tiers des mesures d'atténuations climatiques". "Mais la nature ne peut pas tout. Il faut évidemment accélérer les réductions des émissions de gaz à effet de serre liées aux activités humaines."

Autant de leviers d'action qui sont au menu de la COP15 pour la biodiversité. Mais avant de parvenir à un accord, l'argent risque de rester une question brûlante. Le Brésil, soutenu par 22 pays, a demandé que les États riches fournissent "au moins 100 milliards de dollars par an jusqu'en 2030" aux pays en développement pour financer la protection de la nature. Une demande à laquelle les Européens restent réticents.

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La biodiversité, à la fois victime et outil de lutte contre le réchauffement climatique

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Après la COP27 sur le climat, les représentants du monde entier se retrouvent à partir de mercredi à Montréal pour la COP15 Biodiversité, avec un nouveau défi : approuver une feuille de route à même...

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KSABC (Korean Society for Applied Biological Chemistry

L'effet combiné des microplastiques et composés chimiques sont peu étudiés sur les plantes. Dans cette étude, deux composés sont testés sur une plante spécifique et leur action combiné provoque un phénomène de synergie : l'effet combiné est plus extrême que la somme des effets individuels.

En prenant en compte que les combinaisons testées ne font qu'une infime partie des produits utilisés dans le domaine de l'agriculture, les effets de ces combos sont particuliètrement imprévisibles.

"The increasing Cd or PCM absorption tendency in the co-presence of microplastics (Fig.  4) can also support the negligible increases in the lettuce length and number of lettuce leaves in the co-presence of microplastics (Fig. 3)."

En d'autres mots, le cadmium absorbe les composés des pesticides (l'autre produit chimique) et son contact avec le film de microplastique lui permet de s'étendre plus facilement dans le sol.

La consommation de ces produits par les humains, et le ruissellement de ceux-ci dans les écosystèmes est un enjeux de santé.

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Explore millions of resources from scholarly journals, books, newspapers, videos and more, on the ProQuest Platform.

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PHILOSOPHIQUE: Enjeux de la science et de la gouvernance de la biodiversité

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PHILOSOPHIQUE: Enjeux de la science et de la gouvernance de la biodiversité

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Michel Loreau, chercheur (Doctorat) Directeur du Centre for Biodiversity Theory

" tout processus de production est un rapport à la nature en ce qu’il la transforme et en dépend tout à la fois. À mesure que l’homme transforme la nature, il transforme également les conditions de sa propre existence. "

L'humain dépend de la biodiversité dans tous les aspects de sa vie, s'en inspire dans tous les secteurs.

"Si l’on prend un peu de recul par rapport aux succès de la science et de la technologie, on découvre que l’humanité dépend de la biodiversité à de nombreux égards."

1. la biodiversité nous fournit un grand nombre de biens qui présentent des valeurs d’usage direct, comme l’alimentation, le bois, le textile et les médicaments.

2. elle constitue une source d’innovations inépuisable.

3. La biodiversité représente par ailleurs un patrimoine naturel à l’origine de multiples valeurs esthétiques, spirituelles, culturelles et récréatives.

EN RÉSUMÉ: l’érosion de la biodiversité représente une menace sérieuse pour le développement durable des sociétés humaines et la qualité de vie des générations à venir.

Question philo: La puissance de l’humanité justifie-telle la destruction de la nature et des autres espèces ?

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SCIENTIFIQUE : Des “supers-enzymes” en mesure de décomposer le plastique

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SCIENTIFIQUE : Des “supers-enzymes” en mesure de décomposer le plastique

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Créés par un groupe de scientifique, ils sont 6 fois plus efficaces que les bactéries naturellement développées pour décomposer le plastique.

Elles sont utilisées pour le plastique le plus abondant, soit le PET (polyéthylène téréphtalate)

https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mBio.02155-21

Journal original où l’article a été publié.

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SCIENTIFIQUE : Débalancement des invertébrés marins benthiques dans la Manche

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SCIENTIFIQUE : Débalancement des invertébrés marins benthiques dans la Manche

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2023

Jean-Claude Dauvin (Docteur en sciences marines et océanographie)

https://doi.org/10.4000/vertigo.39835

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Médiatique : De la pollution en quantité astronomique dans l'espace

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Médiatique : De la pollution en quantité astronomique dans l'espace

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Date de publication : 9 Aout 2019

Auteur :

Entrevue de Robert Lamontagne, astrophysicien à l'Université de Montréal et coordonnateur du Centre de recherche en astrophysique du Québec, par Maxime Cloutier, animateur de "La matinale d'été".

Résumé:

Statistiques...

Dizaine de milliers d'objets de 10 cm et plus

Centaine de millions d’objets de 1 cm et moins

Ils s'accumulent depuis plus de 60 ans.

Le spécialiste en la matière dit : " Il y a un problème de sécurité nationale : les objets voyagent à une vitesse de 30 000 km/h. De plus, nous avons de la misère à suivre les petits débris donc si nous voulons éventuellement voyager il sera impossible de prévoir leur trajectoire et de se protéger contre eux.

Nous sommes en recherche de solutions depuis une dizaine d'années...

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De la pollution en quantité astronomique dans l’espace

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La matinale d’été | Il n’y a pas que sur la Terre qu’un problème de pollution persiste. Les débris sont de plus en plus nombreux en orbite autour de notre planète. À court de solutions pour nettoyer le cosmos, la Défense nationale et les Forces armées canadiennes ont lancé un appel aux scientifiques et aux ingénieurs.

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Scientifique : Extinction locale du moustique tigre

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Scientifique : Extinction locale du moustique tigre

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Note de lecture : Extinction locale du moustique tigre (Aedes albopictus) à la suite de l'éradication des rats de l'atoll de Palmyre par Lafferty KD, McLaughlin JP, Gruner DS, et al

Bulletin de la Societe de Pathologie Exotique; Heidelberg

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Note de lecture : Extinction locale du moustique tigre (Aedes albopictus) à la suite de l’éradication des rats de l’atoll de Palmyre par Lafferty KD, McLaughlin JP, Gruner DS, et al - ProQuest

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Explore millions of resources from scholarly journals, books, newspapers, videos and more, on the ProQuest Platform.

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Les déchets des avions, l’autre pollution

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Les déchets des avions, l’autre pollution

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Radio-Canada, 2024

Les politiques de déchets dans les aéroport canadiens sont hors de norme, et les efforts écologique sont négligeables.

Les déchets internationaux en quelques chiffres

1,43 kg par passager et par vol

6,4 millions de tonnes en 2019

3,1 millions de tonnes en 2020

5,7 millions de tonnes en 2024 (estimation)

20 % des déchets sont des aliments non consommés.

Source : IATA

-Les métaux recyclés doivent être fondus à 700 degrés Celcius

-6000 tonnes de déchets enfouis par les aéroports de montréal

-Les réglement en termes d'écologie sont supposément presque non-existants

-On cherche mettre en place un nouvelle réglementation similaire aux aéroports américains et ceux de l'UE

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Une directive de l'Agence canadienne d'inspection des aliments (ACIA) force la destruction de tous les déchets produits dans les avions qui atterrissent au Canada. Des compagnies aériennes, des aéroports et des écologistes réclament des modifications afin de permettre le recyclage.

Une canette en aluminium, un gobelet en carton, une assiette en plastique... Il ne viendrait plus à l'esprit de mettre ces objets à la poubelle tant les gestes de tri sont ancrés dans la routine des Canadiens. C'est pourtant ce que les compagnies aériennes sont obligées de faire, en vertu d'une directive fédérale datant de 2002.

Ce règlement sur les déchets internationaux relève de l'Agence canadienne d'inspection des aliments. Comme son nom l'indique, il est censé concerner les déchets provenant des vols internationaux qui atterrissent dans un aéroport canadien.

Toutefois, comme les risques de contact avec d'autres déchets ne peuvent pas être écartés, le règlement s'applique également, la plupart du temps, aux vols intérieurs.

En 2024, on estime que le volume de déchets internationaux atteindra 5,7 millions de tonnes dans le monde. C'est l'équivalent de ce que tous les Québécois jettent à la poubelle chaque année.

Agent de terrorisme agricole

L'objectif initial du règlement est d'éviter une contamination environnementale.

Je ne crois pas que le Canada veuille vivre un épisode de peste porcine africaine ou de fièvre aphteuse, qui aurait des conséquences dévastatrices sur l'économie du pays et sur la santé animale , explique Marie-Lou Gaucher, de la Faculté vétérinaire de l'Université de Montréal.

Oui, la mesure peut paraître stricte, selon la titulaire de la chaire de recherche en salubrité des viandes, mais elle n'est pas .

L'ACIA décrit en des termes tout aussi alarmants l'éventualité d'une éclosion de fièvre aphteuse qui serait une catastrophe nationale : La fièvre aphteuse doit aussi être considérée comme un agent possible de terrorisme agricole.

Les failles du système

Tout ce qui a pu être en contact avec un produit alimentaire à bord de l'avion subit donc le même sort lorsqu'il arrive en sol canadien : destruction systématique, soit par incinération, soit par enfouissement.

Mais il y a des failles. Rien n'empêche un voyageur de rapporter chez lui l'intégralité de son plateau-repas, puis de décider de composter et de recycler son contenu.

On comprend au départ l'idée d'être soucieux de la sécurité et de la santé des Canadiens et on ne remet pas ça en cause , assure Martin Massé, vice-président chargé du développement durable pour Aéroports de Montréal.
Ce qu'on dit, par contre, c'est qu'à partir du moment où l'objet, selon qu'il est transporté par le passager ou par le service traiteur, [subit] un traitement différent, à ce moment-là, manifestement, on n'atteint pas l'objectif.
Selon un rapport préparé en 2018 pour l'Association du transport aérien international (IATA), il n'existe aucun précédent dans le monde où un virus transporté par un déchet provenant de l'étranger aurait été à l'origine d'une éclosion.

Le Canada est un des pays du monde qui a les règles les plus strictes , affirme Nicolas Jammes, directeur adjoint durabilité de l'.

Des réglementations similaires, mais moins restrictives, sont en place dans l'Union européenne, en Nouvelle-Zélande ou encore aux États-Unis.

L', qui regroupe près de 300 compagnies aériennes, souhaite permettre à ses membres de recycler ce qui est recyclable, de réutiliser ce qui est réutilisable, tout en étant proche d'un risque zéro de contamination .

6000 tonnes par année à Montréal

Une fois les déchets récupérés dans l'avion par les équipes de ménage ou par le traiteur de la compagnie aérienne, le protocole exige qu'ils prennent le chemin le plus court vers leur destruction.

À Toronto et à Vancouver, ils sont incinérés. À Montréal, le centre d'enfouissement de Terrebonne doit leur préparer une tranchée spéciale dans son monticule de détritus.

Le camion déverse ses déchets internationaux et on va remblayer la tranchée avec des déchets locaux, sans que la machinerie soit en contact direct avec les déchets internationaux , explique Michèle-Odile Geoffroy, responsable environnement pour Enviro-Connexions..

Le même ballet se répète quatre fois par semaine. Selon Aéroports de Montréal, 6000 tonnes de déchets sont ainsi enfouies chaque année.

C'est un règlement qui est un peu abusif et hors norme aujourd'hui , soutient Karel Ménard, directeur général du Front commun québécois pour une gestion écologique des déchets.

Il décrit le transport aérien comme l'une des industries les plus polluantes qui existent , mais il plaide, comme les transporteurs, pour une révision qui permettrait de verdir un peu le secteur.
Regardez ce qu'on vous donne. Tout est suremballé : le sel, le poivre, le jus, tout. Et ça va directement au dépotoir. Donc, je pense qu'on est mûrs pour revoir nos façons de faire au Canada et peut-être assouplir ces règlements qui sont un peu mammouth.
Un projet pilote sur l'aluminium?
Commençons au moins par un projet pilote, plaide Martin Massé d'. Par exemple, sur les canettes de boissons gazeuses.
L'Agence canadienne d'inspection des aliments prévoit une mise à jour de la directive au cours de l'année 2025, sans évoquer la possibilité du recyclage. En attendant, des voix s'élèvent pour réclamer des actions à court terme.

Pas besoin de convaincre Danielle Coudé, convertie à la cause chez Alu Québec. La coordonnatrice valorisation et recyclage juge scandaleux qu'on trouve des métaux, dont l'aluminium, [enfouis] .

On s'entend que ce ne seront pas des gisements énormes, mais chaque initiative de ce type-là vient contribuer à réduire l'enfouissement des métaux , dit-elle.

Pour être recyclés, les ballots de canettes d'aluminium doivent être fondus. Le point de fusion de l'aluminium se situe autour de 700 degrés Celsius.

Ça revient pratiquement au même que de passer à l'incinérateur , analyse de son côté Marie-Lou Gaucher, qui collabore ponctuellement avec l'.

La survie d'une bactérie à de telles températures est impossible. Si ces déchets-là suivent un parcours qui est reconnu et qui limite les risques d'exposition associés, selon moi, ce serait acceptable , juge-t-elle.

D'ici là, l'économie circulaire aérienne reste vouée au dépotoir.

Les déchets internationaux en quelques chiffres

1,43 kg par passager et par vol

6,4 millions de tonnes en 2019

3,1 millions de tonnes en 2020

5,7 millions de tonnes en 2024 (estimation)

20 % des déchets sont des aliments non consommés.

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Les déchets des avions, l'autre pollution

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L'ACIA demande la destruction de tous les déchets produits dans les avions. Certains croient qu'il est temps d'amorcer un virage vers le recyclage.

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Les déchets de plastique dans les océans ont revêtu avec raison une importance particulière lors des discussions du G7 parce qu’ils constituent une menace pour les écosystèmes marins et la santé humaine, tout en constituant une perte importante de valeur sur le plan économique, de ressources et d’énergie.

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MÉDIATIQUE - Écolos, les Québécois? Oui mais…

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MÉDIATIQUE - Écolos, les Québécois? Oui mais…

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La seule habitude écologique ancrée depuis les 10 dernières années est le recyclage

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Sommes-nous écolos ? Oui, mais beaucoup moins qu'on voudrait le penser, selon une étude sur la progression de nos habitudes vertes depuis les 10 dernières années. Portrait de la situation en cinq faits tirés du 10 e Baromètre annuel de la consommation responsable, dévoilé mardi par l'Observatoire de la consommation responsable (OCR) de l'ESG UQAM.

Mon cher bac bleu

Le recyclage est devenu une habitude dans la vaste majorité de nos foyers et lieux publics. Le bac bleu est certainement le symbole du début d'une prise de conscience environnementale, mais recycler est aussi le seul geste réellement acquis depuis 10 ans au Québec.

" En 10 ans, un seul comportement s'est implanté solidement dans les habitudes des Québécois : le recyclage. Déjà en 2010, il s'imposait comme le comportement avec le plus d'adeptes fréquents, une place qu'il n'a jamais perdue depuis ", peut-on lire dans l'étude menée auprès de 1002 répondants.

À l'instar du recyclage, les comportements responsables qui ont le mieux cheminé au cours de la dernière décennie sont ceux pour lesquels le consommateur est encadré, observe Fabien Durif, directeur de l'OCR et professeur titulaire au département de marketing de l'École des sciences de la gestion de l'UQAM.

" Par exemple, le recyclage, on a éduqué les gens, on les a sensibilisés. Si on prend le cas du compostage, les installations se sont améliorées, on a mieux informé les citoyens... Tous ces facteurs contextuels là font progresser les comportements ", explique M. Durif.

" Voulez-vous un sac ? "

N'est-il pas devenu gênant de sortir de l'épicerie, sacs de plastique à la main ? Ce n'est pas une impression, le nombre de citoyens qui refusent un sac dans un magasin a fait un bond phénoménal dans la dernière décennie. Aujourd'hui, 6 citoyens sur 10 répondent " Non merci " à la question " Voulez-vous un sac ? ", alors que cette proportion était de 1 sur 10 il y a 10 ans. Des commerces les ont carrément retirés et des municipalités commencent à les interdire - Saint-Lambert l'a fait, Montréal y songe. Le même phénomène s'observe pour les bouteilles d'eau : 63 % des gens ont fait la transition vers une gourde d'eau, alors qu'environ une personne sur quatre avait éliminé les bouteilles jetables de son quotidien en 2009.

Zéro déchet

Dosettes de café jetables, produits suremballés, verre de café à usage unique... Les consommateurs sont de plus en plus nombreux à refuser de consommer des produits générant des déchets instantanés et superflus. Plus de 60 % des répondants croient qu'il faudrait carrément interdire les pailles de plastique, les fruits et légumes emballés dans du plastique et les sacs de plastique.

" Ça démontre des prises de conscience sur certains sujets qui sont plus poussés par l'actualité, comme le zéro déchet. Ça amène les utilisateurs à prendre conscience de l'impact des sacs et des bouteilles, par exemple, sur l'environnement. Et ça peut les amener à passer à l'action ", analyse M. Durif, qui observe que ce type de comportement était pratiquement inexistant il y a 10 ans.

" Si on prend le marché des dosettes de café, il était moins important, on réfléchissait moins à l'impact. Depuis, une sensibilisation a été faite et on voit un rejet de plus en plus important. "

Moins de viande

Autre observation : une personne sur deux a réduit sa consommation de viande rouge au cours de la dernière année seulement. Les femmes universitaires de 18 à 24 ans sont surreprésentées dans cette catégorie. Toutefois, cette transition est entreprise d'abord pour des raisons de santé et non environnementales.

72,1 % : proportion des Québécois qui ont l'impression de consommer de façon responsable, mais 40 % souhaitent en faire davantage.

" L'impact environnemental n'est pas assez connu, il n'est pas très bien communiqué, croit le directeur de l'OCR. Le transport et le secteur animalier sont les secteurs les plus impactants au niveau de l'environnement. La pollution, les émissions de gaz à effet de serre... Plusieurs études le démontrent. "

Seulement une personne sur cinq parmi celles qui ont diminué leur consommation de viande rouge au cours de la dernière année l'a fait pour des motifs environnementaux.

Femmes défricheuses

Il y a 10 ans, la consommation responsable était " une consommation de niche, de femmes de 45 ans et plus ", sauf pour l'utilisation des transports en commun. Au fil des ans, les femmes demeurent souvent les premières à adopter de nouveaux comportements, mais les hommes emboîtent le pas beaucoup plus rapidement, révèle l'étude.

" Pour l'âge, on a aussi vu une évolution sur 10 ans. On remarque que les comportements se définissent en fonction des générations. Les 65 ans et plus sont enclins à la consommation locale, les 25-44 ont une plus forte tendance pour la redistribution, les vêtements de seconde main, les plus jeunes sont plus ouverts sur le transport local, la protection animale ", soulève Fabien Durif.

Il est à prévoir, dit-il, si la tendance se maintient, que les habitudes de consommation responsable des Québécois soient très profilées, non pas en fonction du sexe ou du revenu, mais en fonction de la génération à laquelle le consommateur appartient.

Fabien Durif, professeur titulaire et directeur de l'OCR

" Depuis 10 ans, des comportements sont devenus pratique courante, comme le recyclage, d'autres se sont installés, comme la consommation locale, d'autres ont progressé, comme le compostage, d'autres émergent, comme le collaboratif... mais il reste énormément de passage à l'action pour qu'il y ait une réelle transition ", poursuit M. Durif.

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Sommes-nous écolos ? Oui, mais beaucoup moins qu'on voudrait le penser, selon une étude sur la progression de nos habitudes vertes depuis les 10 dernières années. Portrait de la situation en cinq faits tirés du 10e Baromètre annuel de la consommation responsable, dévoilé mardi par l'Observatoire de la consommation responsable (OCR) de l'ESG UQAM.

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Un écosocialisme trans-environnemental est d'aller plus loin que l'environnementalisme actuel, dans le sens de dépasser un écologisme étroit.

Nancy Fraser, philosophe féministe, affirme que le capitalisme, de la manière dont il existe en ce moment, mène à des crises environnementales et n'est donc pas compatible avec l'idée de l'environnementalisme. «Pour sauver la planète toute écopolitique doit être anticapitalisme et trans-environnementale.» Critique du capitalisme vert et des concepts environnementaux de la dernière décennie.

Arguments: «Le capitalisme comporte une contradiction écologique profondément ancrée qui le prédispose intrinsèquement à des crises environnementales; deuxièmement, que ces dynamiques sont inextricablement liées à d’autres propensions aux crises « non environnementales » et ne peuvent pas être résolues indépendamment de ces dernières.»

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Pour un écosocialisme trans-environnemental - Nouveaux Cahiers du socialisme

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Pour un écosocialisme trans-environnemental. Un article de la revue Nouveaux Cahiers du socialisme (L'écosocialisme, une stratégie pour notre temps) diffusée par la plateforme Érudit.

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COP28 is flooded with oil and gas advocates | CBC News

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• Benjamin Shingler - journaliste de la CBC

•Supervisée par un CEO d'une compagnie de pétrole

•Se passe aux Émirats arabes unies (grand exportateur pétrolier)

•Subventions aux entreprises - financement du gouvernement versé aux industries pétroliers

- Financement a augmenté de 5 milliards depuis le conférence de Glasgow (2021)

•Lobbyistes doivent maintenant se déclarer

•Conflit d'intérêt (lobbyistes vs militants environnement)

•But de l'année : la suppression progressive de l'exploitation des fossiles combustibles.

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With tens of thousands in Dubai for the climate talks, environmentalists and policy experts are expressing concern over the growing presence of fossil fuel lobbyists at the meetings.

COP28 is viewed by climate scientists and activists as a pivotal conference to cutting global greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, after a summer of record-setting heat.

A of has shown a need to quickly transition away from oil and gas toward renewables, or face ever-rising global temperatures.

An from a coalition of advocacy groups found representatives of the fossil fuel industry have been in attendance a total of 7,200 times at the annual United Nations climate talks over the past two decades.

"There is a conflict of interest there," Andréanne Brazeau, a policy analyst with the Montreal-based environmental group Equiterre, said in an interview before heading to Dubai.

"It's a bit like inviting tobacco companies to a health summit."

WATCH | Fossil fuel companies at COP the 'reality we're in,' McKenna says:

Last year, Canada had one of the largest delegations from the fossil fuel sector - second only to Russia, according to an analysis by the Associated Press. Eleven representatives from the industry were part of the Canadian delegation.

In all, close to 400 people connected to fossil fuel industries attended the climate conference in 2022, a grouping that was larger than all but two of the national delegations sent by countries, according to AP's data analysis of the more than 24,000 participants.

The same analysis also found there are many environmental activists at the meetings - more than 750 last year, though many said they don't hold the same sway.

"Access does not equal influence," said Caroline Brouillette, executive director for Climate Action Network Canada. Brouillette, who is part of the Canadian delegation in Dubai, pointed out it has been a challenge to simply get countries to acknowledge that fossil fuels need to be phased out.

She sees her role, and those of other civil society groups, as attempting to balance out "corporate interest" and keep negotiations on track so that policies that will lead to a reduction in emissions are achieved.

A preliminary list of attendees for this year's event is expected to be released during the meeting, which runs from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12.

Changes at COP28

COP28 is being overseen by Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, one of the world's largest oil producers.

Earlier this week, BBC News reported Al Jaber had used the climate meetings with foreign governments to make oil and gas deals. (Al Jabar has strongly denied the report.)

The United Nations added a requirement for COP28 that fossil fuel lobbyists identify themselves as such when registering for the summit, though advocates are skeptical it's enough.

"For something to change radically at COP, it would take a lot more than a disclosure requirement," said Alix Dietzel, a senior lecturer in climate justice at the University of Bristol who has followed the history of the negotiations.

"I think it's more about the structure of how negotiations take place, who can afford to go to COP and how many people they bring and what sway they have at the international level."

Among the Canadian oil and gas sector representatives headed to the summit are a team from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) and another contingent from Pathways Alliance, an oilsands group.

"Our presence there is really to signal that we're prepared to be part of the solution," Kendall Dilling, the CEO of Pathways Alliance, said in an interview.

"Obviously, oil and gas [and] fossil fuels generally are a major, major part of global emissions, and you can't tackle this problem without tackling that."

CAPP president Lisa Baiton said in an email the group is going to "contribute to the dialogue" on global decarbonization efforts.

WATCH | The state oil executive leading COP28:

Watered-down language in past meetings

At COP27 last year, Dietzel said she was immediately struck by the presence of oil and gas companies in the exhibition area, where wealthy oil-producing nations and companies host gatherings in glitzy pavilions.

The influence of oil and gas companies in the closed-door meetings can be more difficult to measure, but can result in softening the language of agreements during negotiations over the final text, she said.

As an example, Dietzel cited the 2021 meeting in Glasgow, where initially there was talk to "phase out" coal power and put an end to new coal power plants, as well as fossil fuel subsidies.

In the end, countries agreed to language calling for a "phase-down" of coal power and the commitment to end "inefficient" fossil fuel subsidies.

"Over the course of those two weeks in those negotiations, the fossil fuel lobbyists in the room who are often part of negotiating teams for countries raised objections," she said.

"It really muddled language, where nobody's really committing to anything."

Last year, a proposal by India to phase out all fossil fuels that was supported by the U.S. and many European nations never got on the agenda.

Global fossil fuel subsidies have risen since the Glasgow climate conference from $2 trillion to $7 trillion, according to the International Monetary Fund, as governments around the world moved to protect consumers from rising energy prices.

The lobbying begins prior to the meetings themselves, she said, as countries prepare their priorities in the months leading up to the meeting.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has made it clear that a "commitment to phase out fossil fuels" must be the goal this year.

After taking the gavel on the first day of climate negotiations, Al Jaber referred to the need for change in the way the world gets its energy. He also talked about the "bold choice" of including oil companies more in climate talks.

"I know there are strong views on the idea of including language on fossil fuels,'' Al Jaber said. "I ask you all to work together. Be flexible. Find common ground. Come forward with solutions and achieve consensus."

'Range of perspectives' in Canadian delegation

The Canadian delegation will again include representatives from the oil and gas industry, but a spokesperson for Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said their participation will be limited.

Canada has no events hosted by oil and gas companies planned at its pavilion, after a presentation last year by Pathways Alliance drew the ire of activists.

Saskatchewan is also hosting a pavilion, at a cost of $765,000, where it will hold panels by industry leaders.

"The Canadian delegation benefits from the broad range of perspectives and expertise that it encompasses, reflective of Canada's many and diverse regional perspectives and interests," Guilbeault's spokesperson Kaitlin Power said in an email.

"I hope that these delegates will make a valuable contribution to the fight against climate change, commensurate with the industry's impact in fuelling the climate crisis."

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COP28 is flooded with oil and gas advocates | CBC News

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With tens of thousands arriving in Dubai for the COP28 climate talks that begin today, environmentalists and policy experts are expressing concern over the growing presence of fossil fuel lobbyists at the meetings.

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énigme de la consommation: consommation est son propre effet et cause

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Fabrice FLIPO : professeur à l'Institut Mines Télécom

Explique brièvement différents théories en économie par rapport à la consommation dont le courant populaire du développement durable. Pourtant la décroissance volontaire serait une théorie beaucoup plus efficace pour faire face à la nature fini des ressources naturelles de la planète. Ce serait la « thèse dominante des "objecteurs de croissance" », mais qu'elle demeure très peu répandue chez les économistes.

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Scientifique : Effet environnemental de différents régimes 

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Scientifique : Effet environnemental de différents régimes 

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La production de la nourriture pour les personnes avec un régime comme végétarien ou végane produit moins de CO2.

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Abstract

Modelled dietary scenarios often fail to reflect true dietary practice and do not account for variation in the environmental burden of food due to sourcing and production methods. Here we link dietary data from a sample of 55,504 vegans, vegetarians, fish-eaters and meat-eaters with food-level data on greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water use, eutrophication risk and potential biodiversity loss from a review of 570 life-cycle assessments covering more than 38,000 farms in 119 countries. Our results include the variation in food production and sourcing that is observed in the review of life-cycle assessments. All environmental indicators showed a positive association with amounts of animal-based food consumed. Dietary impacts of vegans were 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 15.1-37.0%) of high meat-eaters (≥100 g total meat consumed per day) for greenhouse gas emissions, 25.1% (7.1-44.5%) for land use, 46.4% (21.0-81.0%) for water use, 27.0% (19.4-40.4%) for eutrophication and 34.3% (12.0-65.3%) for biodiversity. At least 30% differences were found between low and high meat-eaters for most indicators. Despite substantial variation due to where and how food is produced, the relationship between environmental impact and animal-based food consumption is clear and should prompt the reduction of the latter.

Main

The substantial impact of the global food system on the environment is well established. It is estimated that the food system was responsible for 18 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO ₂e) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2015, comprising 34% of total global GHG emissions that year1. The food system is also responsible for 70% of the world's freshwater use and 78% of freshwater pollution2,3. About three quarters of the World's ice-free land area has been affected by human use, primarily agriculture4, and land-use change (primarily deforestation for agriculture) is a major source of biodiversity loss5,6.

To feed a growing global population while remaining within proposed safe environmental boundaries for GHG emissions, land use, water use, water pollution and biodiversity loss, we will need changes in diets7. Other means to reduce the environmental impact of the food system (for example, technological advances, closing yield gaps, reducing food waste) will not be enough without major dietary change7,8. The environmental impact of animal-based foods is generally higher than for plant-based foods because of both direct processes related to livestock management (for example, methane (CH ₄) production by ruminants) and indirect processes through the inefficiency of using crops for animal feed rather than directly for human consumption3,9,10. For this reason, proposed diets for global sustainable food production require most high-income countries to radically reduce consumption of animal-based foods and converge on levels that are higher than currently consumed in many low-income countries8.

Systematic reviews of modelled dietary scenarios have shown that vegan and vegetarian diets have substantially lower GHG emissions, land use and water use requirements than meat-containing diets11,12 and that diets with reduced animal-based foods tend to be healthier and have lower environmental impact13. However, modelled dietary scenarios may not reflect true dietary practice, and modelled environmental and health outcomes can be strongly affected by assumptions made by the modellers. Also, previous modelled dietary scenarios have not reflected the considerable variation in environmental indicators due to both region of food production and agricultural production methods3 and therefore will have underestimated the uncertainty associated with their findings. While we continue to use average values of environmental impact for food categories, we cannot know whether the observed differences in environmental impact between dietary groups still exist after accounting for variation in food production systems. We therefore need to link data from dietary surveys of real-life dietary patterns with large datasets of environmental indicators to ascertain whether the relationship between animal-based food consumption and environmental outcomes shown in modelling studies is robust.

Previously, we estimated the dietary GHG emissions associated with real-life diet groups in the UK14. These estimates only captured one aspect of the environmental impact of food systems, and the data for GHG emissions were derived from a single source with no information about variation within individual food groups due to sourcing or production15. Also, GHG emissions data were not presented as disaggregated gases, losing climatically important information16. In this paper, we link a validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) to estimates from a review of 570 life-cycle assessments3 (LCAs) to estimate the GHG emissions (CH ₄, nitrous oxide (N ₂O) and carbon dioxide (CO ₂), in addition to combined CO ₂e emissions), water use, land use, water pollution and biodiversity impact associated with observed diets of vegans, vegetarians, fish-eaters and meat-eaters in the UK (Fig. 1). Our approach allows for direct comparisons of the environmental indicators for each diet group, incorporating uncertainty due to food sourcing and production, and individual-level diet choice.

Flow chart shows how data from different sources have been linked for these analyses. Further information about the linkages is provided in the Supplementary Data 1 (Supplementary Section 1).

Results

The participants and their dietary intake are described in Table 1. Vegans and vegetarians were younger than fish-eaters and meat-eaters, and vegans reported a lower dietary intake of energy than all other diet groups. Fish consumption was similar in fish-eaters and low meat-eaters (with higher levels of consumption in medium and high meat-eaters), suggesting that fish-eaters were not replacing meat with fish. While total dairy consumption was lower in vegetarians and fish-eaters compared to meat-eaters, there was higher consumption of cheese in these two groups.

Table 1 Baseline dietary intakes of 55,504 EPIC-Oxford participants overall and by diet group

Estimates of environmental indicators of the diet groups are shown in Tables 2- 4, and relative impacts compared to the high meat-eaters are shown in Figs. 2 and 3. The uncertainty associated with sourcing and production is highly correlated between diet groups. This is because food-level draws that produce Monte Carlo iterations with low estimates for the vegan diet group are highly likely to produce low estimates of environmental impact for all other diet groups. For this reason, the results in Tables 2- 4 can be used to show uncertainty in absolute estimates of environmental impact for any single diet group, but for comparisons between diet groups the results in Figs. 2 and 3 should be used (which account for the correlation in the uncertainty between diet groups). The results shown in Figs. 2 and 3 represent re-analyses of the dataset and cannot simply be calculated from the data presented in Tables 2- 4. Tables with full results for these figures are provided in Supplementary Tables 8- 10.

Table 2 Dietary GHG emissions (CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O) by diet group, standardized to 2,000 kcal and by age and gender

Table 3 Dietary GHG emissions by diet group aggregated using the GWP100, GTP100 and GWP20, standardized to 2,000 kcal and by age and gender

Table 4 Land use, water use, eutrophication and biodiversity impact by diet group, standardized to 2,000 kcal and by age and gender

Uncertainty intervals are 2.5th to 97.5th percentiles of a Monte Carlo analysis ( n  = 1,000).
Source data

Uncertainty intervals are 2.5th to 97.5th percentiles of a Monte Carlo analysis ( n  = 1,000).
Source data

For GHG emissions, there was a positive association with amount of animal-based food consumption (Table 2, Fig. 2 and Supplementary Table 8). Dietary CO ₂ emissions for vegans were 30.3% (17.0-45.5%) of the high meat-eaters group. There were also substantial differences in dietary CO ₂ emissions between groups of meat-eaters. Dietary CO ₂ emissions of low meat-eaters were 57.2% (37.8-74.9%) of the high meat-eaters. CH ₄ is a GHG that, in terms of agricultural emissions, is predominantly associated with production of ruminants-it is therefore unsurprising to see wide disparities in CH ₄ emissions associated with the different diet groups. CH ₄ emissions from high meat-eaters were 15.3 (10.3-27.1) times higher than from vegan diets. N ₂O emissions are predominantly associated with fertilizer use, and therefore gradients in N ₂O emissions by diet group are mostly a result of the inefficiencies associated with raising crops for animal feed. This gradient is shallower than for CH ₄ but still substantial, with N ₂ O emissions for high meat-eaters 3.6 (2.4-6.0) times higher than for vegans.

Table 3 (and Supplementary Table 9 for relative differences between diet groups) show that using the 100-year Global Temperature change Potential (GTP100) measure resulted in smaller aggregated GHG footprints for all diets, as would be expected given the lower valuation of both N ₂O and especially CH ₄ compared to 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP100). The ranking of different dietary emission footprints remained the same, but the relative advantage of vegans over diets incorporating animal products decline slightly, with the high meat-eaters responsible for 3.6 (2.4-6.1) times greater GTP100 emissions than vegans, and low meat-eaters 1.8 (1.4-2.6) times greater. For the 20-year Global Warming Potential (GWP20), all footprints were greater, and the relative difference between vegan and other footprints was even more pronounced: high meat-eater diets were 5.1 (3.5-8.4) times greater than vegans.

Table 4, Fig. 3 and Supplementary Table 10 show results for land use, water use, eutrophication and biodiversity impact, all of which show trends in environmental burden from vegans (lowest) to high meat-eaters (highest). For both land use and eutrophication, there is a large difference between the high meat-eaters and all other groups. For eutrophication, the low-meat diet has an impact that is 57.4% (49.6-68.4%) of the high-meat-eating group. For land use, the impact of low meat-eaters is 43.8% (20.7-65.4%) of the high meat-eaters. For both water use and biodiversity impact, there are much bigger gaps for the plant-based groups (for water use, the gap emerges for vegetarians and vegans, whereas for biodiversity impact, it applies to vegans only). However, for both of these environmental indicators, there is far less certainty in both absolute estimates for individual diet groups and also in comparisons between diet groups. Figure 3 shows how this uncertainty propagates, with far wider uncertainty intervals for water use and biodiversity impact than for other measures. For example, the biodiversity impact of vegetarian diets is estimated to be 64.8% of high meat-eaters, but the uncertainty interval (24.5-102.3%) overlap with parity between the groups. The larger uncertainty intervals for these two environmental indicators reflect wide variations in the food-level LCAs.

The results of our sensitivity analyses where we did not standardize diets to 2,000 kcal d −1 are shown in Supplementary Section 3 (with equivalent results for the regression-based results in Supplementary Section 2). As shown in Table 1, the measured kilocalorie content of the diet is higher in meat-eaters than in vegetarians and vegans, and high meat-eaters have higher measured kilocalorie intake than low meat-eaters. Therefore, it is unsurprising that not standardizing for kilocalorie intake amplifies the differences in environmental impact across diet groups. In the sensitivity analysis, the environmental footprint of vegan diets is between 5% (CH ₄) and 38% (water use) of the footprint of high meat-eaters. For low meat-eaters, the impact is between 37% (land use) and 67% (water use) of high meat-eaters.

Discussion

Statement of principal findings

Diet-related environmental impacts vary substantially by diet groups within this cohort of UK adults which includes a large sample of vegans, vegetarians and fish-eaters. For measures of GHG emissions, land use, water use, eutrophication and biodiversity, the level of impact is strongly associated with the amount of animal-based products that are consumed. Point estimates for vegan diets were associated with less than half of the impact of high-meat-eater (>100 g d −1) diets for all indicators, and 95% uncertainty intervals were below 50% for all outcomes except water use and biodiversity. There are also large differences in the environmental impact of diets for groups with lower (but still some) meat consumption. For GHG emissions, eutrophication and land use, the impact for low meat-eaters was at least 30% lower than for high meat-eaters. Large food-level variation in the environmental indicators due to region of origin and method of food production does not obscure differences between diet groups.

Implications of research

The UK has a legal commitment to a 78% reduction in GHG emissions by 2035 compared to 199017 and of halting biodiversity loss by 203018. The UK Committee on Climate Change has stated that if the government is to achieve its ambitious targets for carbon reductions, then rapid progress must be made across all sectors including implementing measures to encourage consumers to shift diets19. Shifts in diets towards plant-based consumption was also emphasized in the 2021 National Food Strategy, which called for a 30% reduction in meat consumption20. Previous scenario modelling work has shown that global improvements in food technology, closure of yield gaps and reductions in food waste could potentially reduce dietary GHG emissions by about 15%, primarily through adoption of more efficient technologies in low- and middle-income countries7. Our results suggest that much bigger reductions can be achieved by increasing the uptake of plant-based diets, which aligns with other results from this field7,8,11.

There are many population-level interventions that could be implemented to support transitions towards lower meat diets. The UK Health Alliance on Climate Change recommends that sustainable diets should be supported by mandatory environmental labelling on foods, regulation of promotions and taxation of high-carbon foods21. All of these are variants on policies aimed at increasing healthy diets that either have already been introduced (for example, traffic light labelling, the UK Soft Drink Industry Levy) or have been proposed in the UK Childhood Obesity Plan22. The UK Government's dietary policy is underpinned by its food-based dietary guidelines (FBDGs), known as the Eatwell Guide23. A recent systematic review of national FBDGs found that the large majority are not compatible with the proposed downscaling of 'planetary boundaries' for food production-if the UK population consumed the diet recommended by the Eatwell Guide, it would not stay within boundaries for GHG emissions, water use, land use and eutrophication suggested by the paper24. Incorporating environmental sustainability into FBDGs (such as the Eatwell Guide proposed by Plant-based Health Professionals UK25) may be the first step towards implementation of population-level policies that have been shown to support shifts away from animal-based foods26.

Strengths and limitations

This paper uses one of the largest datasets available on the diets of vegans and vegetarians to compare the environmental impact of different diet groups over ten environmental measures. The analyses contribute to the literature that shows the benefit of low-meat diets for reduction of GHG emissions14, land use, water use, water pollution and biodiversity. The paper uses only empirical measures of diet, thereby verifying previous modelling work that has suggested multiple environmental benefits of low-meat diets7,8,27. By using self-identification as vegan, vegetarian and fish-eater, we ensure that our methods include all dietary patterns within those categories including those that breach some of the definitions of the groups-this means our estimates are likely to reflect real dietary practices as opposed to comparison of idealized diet groups.

A key strength of our analysis is that it incorporates the uncertainty around the environmental parameters drawn from a review of 570 LCAs covering results from over 38,000 farms in 119 countries covering five continents3-henceforth, 'the Poore and Nemecek database'. Doing this shows that although uncertainty for any single food group is large, when this uncertainty is combined over multiple food groups to produce aggregated dietary estimates, we can still observe clear differences between diet groups. Our primary results are based on a Monte Carlo analysis where 1,000 estimates of each food's environmental impact are produced based on varying measures due to food sourcing and production methods. In our secondary results (shown in Supplementary Tables 1 and 2 and based on regression models that take the median estimate of the environmental parameter for each food group and ignore the underlying variation), not only are the confidence intervals much tighter than in the primary analysis, but the point estimates are also lower. The discrepancy between the two sets of results is due to the computational mathematics involved with combining multiple distributions, many of which are heavily right-skewed, all of which are bounded by zero, and in which negative scalars are not possible (as negative consumption of food is not possible). Although each random draw from the food group distributions is equally likely to be either lower or higher than the median, draws that are higher than the median are, on average, further from the median than those that are lower. When summed, these random draws produce median estimates that are larger than the sum of the medians for the individual food groups. The same principle is shown by rolling two dice. For two normal 1-6 dice (which have no skew), the median score when rolling two dice is 7, which is twice the median score for rolling each dice separately (3½). However, consider rolling two 'doubling dice' from backgammon that are heavily right-skewed (with faces 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 and 64). Here, the median score when rolling two dice is 35, much higher than the sum of the median scores for each single dice (which is 12).

Our secondary results (shown in the Supplementary Information) show that ignoring the uncertainty around food-level parameters can result in both underestimation of the uncertainty in diet-level outcomes and bias in the results which can reduce observed differences between diet groups. For example, our primary results show a difference in water use between high meat-eaters and vegans of 480 l d −1, with high meat-eaters consuming 2.2 times as much water as vegans, whereas the secondary results show an absolute difference of 210 l d −1 and a relative difference of 1.7. The issue of food-level uncertainty affects all areas of nutritional epidemiology that rely on food diaries or FFQs to estimate dietary intake. For example, estimates of sugar consumption produced by these methods do not account for uncertainty in the sugar level of food groups, but we know that wide variability in sugar levels for similar foods exists28.

An additional contribution of our research was providing disaggregated GHG emissions and exploring multiple CO ₂-equivalence metrics, whereas most previous studies report only GWP100 CO ₂e. Reporting emissions only as aggregated GWP100 totals results in ambiguity in climate impacts29, whereas providing footprints under multiple metrics gives users insight into temporal differences where there are both short- and long-lived gases involved, as highlighted by the Life Cycle Initiative30. As food system emissions contain important amounts of CH ₄, a relatively short-lived gas, metric selection can have a pronounced impact on CO ₂e emission reporting31. Here, however, using the alternative pulse-emission metrics explored in this study did not greatly affect results, with a fairly small change in total footprints and relative performance between dietary groups. A caveat is that emissions data from the Poore and Nemecek database are not separated into different gases, and while they are categorized to broadly infer gas compositions (for example, assuming that the CO ₂e emissions reported for fertilizer application represented N ₂O, and enteric fermentation CO ₂e represented CH ₄), for other components we had to assume emissions were entirely CO ₂. We reiterate calls for studies on GHG emissions, particularly those relating to agriculture and food, to provide disaggregated emissions to enable the most reliable analyses31.

Our analyses are subject to the following further limitations. The data on the environmental footprint of foods are taken from a snapshot of food and drink on sale in the UK in 2019 linked to the most comprehensive publicly available dataset of LCAs of the environmental impact of foods currently available3. However, the data on dietary consumption were collected in the 1990s, and dietary preferences are likely to have changed since then. This is mitigated somewhat by the fact that the FFQ was linked to the environmental footprint of food and drink on sale in the UK in 2019, but this will not account for category-level changes in consumption since the 1990s. More recent datasets of dietary consumption in the UK are available, including datasets based on a representative sample of the UK population (for example, Kantar Fast-Moving Consumer Goods panel32 and the National Diet and Nutrition Survey33). However, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Oxford dataset (used for this analysis) is the most recent data available in the UK that has a large sample of vegan and vegetarian diets, necessary for these analyses. Data collection is underway on the Feeding the Future study34, which aims to update estimates of food intake in vegans and vegetarians (and meat-eaters) in the UK. Updating our analyses using more timely data will provide evidence of whether trends in new meat and dairy alternatives have affected the environmental impact of plant-based diets.

Our database of food and drink on sale in 2019 was not adjusted for sales, so we were not able to put extra weight on more popularly consumed foods. For our analyses, we standardized daily diets to 2,000 kcal so that differences between diet groups are entirely a result of the composition of the diets-this may result in underestimates of the difference between diet groups as meat-eaters tend to consume more calories than vegans and vegetarians35. Our sensitivity analysis (Supplementary Tables 5- 7 and 11- 13) shows results that have not been standardized for energy content, which suggests larger differences between the diet groups, but these figures should be treated with caution as some of the difference in kilocalorie intake between groups is caused by artefact. For example, the FFQ used to estimate dietary consumption assumes fixed portion sizes for food groups, but it is likely that portion sizes of cereals, fruit and vegetables are higher in those consuming more plant-based diets.

The FFQ that we used has been validated against food records and biomarkers for estimation of the nutritional quality of the diet, but no such validation has taken place for estimating environmental outcomes. However, a previous validation study compared dietary GHG emissions estimated by a different FFQ with estimates from a 24 h diet recall and showed acceptable levels of agreement between the two36. The FFQ in our study did not measure agricultural production methods, so differences between diet groups based on (for example) differing levels of consumption of organic produce could not be assessed. While we included multiple environmental indicators in our analyses, there are other ethical aspects that vary by region and method of agricultural production that are not included here (for example, agricultural working conditions, animal welfare). Finally, as the Poore and Nemecek database is not comprehensive and our uncertainty analyses are not weighted towards more common food production practices, our uncertainty intervals do not fully incorporate all the uncertainty associated with these comparisons between diet groups. As new agricultural practices aimed at reducing the environmental impact of the food system (for example, feed additives, genetic selection, lab-grown meat) becomes more widespread and LCA data become more readily available, our analyses should be updated.

Comparison with other literature

By scaling our results to the national level, we can compare our absolute estimates of environmental impact with other estimates from the literature. To do this, we used data from the UK's gold standard diet monitoring programme, the National Diet and Nutrition Survey33, which estimated that in 2016-2019 the average consumption of all meat (that is, processed and unprocessed meat including poultry but excluding fish) in 19-64 year olds was 99 g d −1, and 77 g d −1 in the 65+ age group. We estimated the prevalence of vegans and vegetarians using data from a recent Ipsos Mori survey37. Using these data to scale our results to the population of the UK, we estimate that the annual dietary environmental footprint of adults in the UK amounts to 120 MT of CO ₂e, 230,000 km ² of agricultural land, 15 km ³ of agricultural water, 690 kT of phosphate equivalents (PO ₄e) and 0.06 terrestrial vertebrate species destined for extinction. Our estimate of 120 MT of CO ₂e is similar to the most recent estimate from EDGAR-FOOD (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research)38, which produces globally comparable estimates using Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations food balance sheet data and estimates UK food systems emissions in 2015 to be 113 MT of CO ₂e. Our estimates for water use, eutrophication and biodiversity are similar to results for the UK published by the World Wildlife Fund39 of 19 km ³ of agricultural water, 645 kT of PO ₄e and 0.03 species destined for extinction each year. While our estimate of total GHG emissions is similar to that from EDGAR-FOOD, the proportion of individual gases is different. For our estimates, the contribution to CO ₂e of N ₂O is about 7% for all diet groups, and for CH ₄ the contribution increases from 6% in vegans to 21% in high meat-eaters. Equivalent estimates from EDGAR-FOOD for the UK are 17% for N ₂O and 35% for CH ₄. This may be a result of discrepancies in how we derive separate N ₂O, CH ₄ and CO ₂ emissions making inferences from the Poore and Nemecek database, as noted above, and the way separate gases are handled in the Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics Division (FAOSTAT) emissions in EDGAR-FOOD, further highlighting the challenges in obtaining individual gas data.

Previous estimates of dietary GHG emissions for vegans, vegetarians, fish-eaters and meat-eaters in the EPIC-Oxford cohort have been made using a similar method based on GHG emissions data from a single study14. The estimates presented here are slightly lower for plant-based diet groups and slightly higher for meat-eating groups. Other studies have compared the environmental impacts of observed diet groups defined by exclusion of meat or dairy40,41,42, but they have not included as many environmental measures as here nor incorporated uncertainty in estimates due to region of origin and production method. Dietary GHG emissions for US vegetarians in the Adventist Health Study 2 cohort41,42, standardized to a 2,000 kcal diet, were 70.8% (70.5-71.2%) of emissions from non-vegetarian diets, similar to the difference between vegetarians and the medium meat-eaters (58.5%) observed in our sample. An analysis of 29,210 French adults in the NutriNet-Sante Study included data on 464 pesco-vegetarians (equivalent to fish-eaters in our study), 406 vegetarians and 297 vegans40. For both GHG emissions and land use, that study40 found the same relationship as shown in our paper, with lowest environmental impact for vegans, similar impact for vegetarians and fish-eaters, and highest impact for meat-eaters. They also found similar relative differences between vegans and meat-eaters, with dietary GHG emissions of vegans being 24.5% (19.2-29.8%) of the meat-eaters and 35.6% (29.9-41.3%) for land use.

Conclusion

There is a strong relationship between the amount of animal-based foods in a diet and its environmental impact, including GHG emissions, land use, water use, eutrophication and biodiversity. Dietary shifts away from animal-based foods can make a substantial contribution to reduction of the UK environmental footprint. Uncertainty due to region of origin and methods of food production do not obscure these differences between diet groups and should not be a barrier to policy action aimed at reducing animal-based food consumption.

Methods

See the data availability statement for details of where to access the data for this study.

Recruitment and dietary assessment

Data on food consumption comes from the baseline data collection of the EPIC-Oxford prospective cohort study43. Between 1993 and 1999, data were collected on 65,411 adults aged 20 years and over. Individuals were recruited through advertising in vegetarian and health food magazines, through direct mailout from vegetarian and vegan societies and through collaborating general practices. Recruited individuals were then encouraged to recruit acquaintances. All participants were residents in the UK.

Dietary assessment was conducted using a 130-item FFQ that assesses the usual levels of consumption of food items over the previous 12 months. The FFQ has been validated against weighed food records and several recovery and concentration biomarkers44. The FFQ was used to estimate food group and nutrient intakes, and participants were classified into self-identified dietary groups (vegans, vegetarians, fish-eaters and meat-eaters) by their responses to the following four yes or no questions:

Do you eat any meat (including bacon, ham, poultry, game, meat pies, sausages)? (Vegans, vegetarians and fish-eaters respond 'No'.)

Do you eat any fish? (Vegans and vegetarians respond 'No'.)

Do you eat any eggs (including eggs in cakes or other baked goods)? (Vegans respond 'No'.)

Do you eat any dairy products (including milk, cheese, butter, yoghurt)? (Vegans respond 'No'.)

In addition, we split the meat-eaters into three groups based on amount of daily consumption: low meat-eaters (0 to <50 g d −1), medium meat-eaters (≥50 to <100 g d −1) and high meat-eaters (≥100 g d −1). These cut-offs were selected as they split the cohort into three similarly sized groups and allow for direct comparison with other published studies.

For these analyses, we excluded participants if they were aged 80 years or over, or under the age of 20 years at recruitment, did not complete at least 80% of the FFQ, did not complete the questions required for classification into dietary groups, or produced estimates of daily energy intake that were deemed unfeasible45 (for men, <3.3 MJ or >16.7 MJ, and for women <2.1 MJ or >14.7 MJ; n total excluded  = 9,907).

Environmental data

The environmental data on emissions of CH ₄, N ₂O and CO ₂ and estimates of water use, land use, eutrophication (dense growth of algae and plant life caused by excess nitrogen and phosphorus levels in the water) and biodiversity impact on terrestrial vertebrates, were taken from the Poore and Nemecek database-a review of 570 LCAs covering results from over 38,000 farms in 119 countries covering five continents3. Disaggregated GHG estimates were not always available in the Poore and Nemecek database. Where they were not available, CH ₄ and N ₂O emissions were assumed to be the sum of emissions from agricultural practices where these GHGs dominate (for example, CH ₄ for enteric fermentation) and CO ₂ was assumed to be the remaining component. We selected all of the environmental indicators available in the Poore and Nemecek database except acidification (because of gaps in the data) and water scarcity (because it is heavily based on water use, which we already use). The life cycle estimates are valid up to the retail setting. The database contains LCAs published between 2000 and 2016 that met inclusion criteria based around a minimum standard of reporting.

We used data on the GHGs to estimate aggregated GWP100 (CH ₄ conversion factor = 27, N ₂O = 273) using conversion factors from the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change46. As agricultural emissions contain a substantial non-CO ₂ component, aggregated CO ₂e emission footprints can vary depending on the method used to define CO ₂-equivalence. Following United Nations Environment Programme and Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (UNEP-SETAC) Life Cycle Initiative guidance30, we explored total dietary footprints using two additional metrics in addition to the de facto standard GWP100. These were the GTP100 (CH ₄ conversion factor = 11, N ₂O = 297), suggested as representing longer-term climate impacts, and the GWP20 (CH ₄ conversion factor = 86, N ₂ O = 268), suggested as providing insight into very short-term impacts.

The exact measures used for our environmental measures are:

GHG emissions measured in kg total GWP100/GTP100/GWP20 CO ₂e, kgCO ₂e, and separate emissions of CH ₄ and N ₂O in grams, and CO ₂ in kilograms.

Agricultural land use, including both cropland and pastureland, measured in m ².

Agricultural water use, measured in m ³ (1 m ³  = 1,000 litres).

Eutrophication potential measured in g of PO ₄e, gPO ₄ e (combining the eutrophication potential of major nitrogen and phosphorus pollutants).

Biodiversity impact, which is measured as the number of species destined for extinction as a result of agricultural practices. This variable accounts for the impacts of land cover expansion (for example, conversion of natural ecosystems to cropland or pastureland) and ongoing use of agricultural land, and is weighted depending on the location of land use47. The index is specific to 170 crops in 184 countries48. The measure we use only accounts for the impact of land-based food production on terrestrial vertebrates, and therefore does not account for biodiversity loss of terrestrial plants or invertebrates, or any aspect of marine biodiversity. This measure is not usually used to assess the potential biodiversity impact of diets consumed by a single individual on a single day. Therefore the units of measurement are very small (10 −12 species destined for extinction), and the measure is better understood as a comparative measure across diet groups.

Linkage of datasets

The process for linking EPIC-Oxford data with environmental assessments is summarized in Fig. 1, and tables demonstrating the links at each stage in the process are provided in the Supplementary Data 1 (Supplementary Section 1). We first ascertained the relevant food codes corresponding to the 130-item FFQ using the UK foods composition tables available at the time of data collection; this yielded 289 foods codes49,50. We then linked the 289 food items with the environmental indicators data via an intermediary step involving a database (foodDB) of all food and drink items available for purchase in eight UK online supermarkets28. We linked an extract of 57,000 food and drinks from October 2019 with the environmental dataset using a process that is described in detail elsewhere51. Briefly, each ingredient in each product in the data extract was linked with food categories from the Poore and Nemecek database. Then, for each food product, the percentage composition of each ingredient was estimated in a two-stage process: first, the per cent composition provided in the ingredients list by the manufacturer was used if it was provided; second, for the remaining ingredients, we used an algorithm to estimate the per cent composition of remaining ingredients using composition and nutrition information from similar products and following UK food-labelling regulations, such that the composition of all ingredients in a product sums to 100% and each ingredient accounts for at least as much of the product as the subsequent ingredient. The accuracy of the approach was assessed by applying the algorithm to a subset of 1,550 foods in the database where the percentages of all ingredients were known. In the extreme scenario where it was assumed that no per cent composition of any ingredient was known, the algorithm on average produced estimates of environmental measures that were within 2% of the known environmental measure across all assessed products. While most products and ingredients identified in foodDB do not provide information on the agricultural methods used for their production, where we identified foods or ingredients labelled as 'organic' we linked them with data on LCAs for organic production methods in the Poore and Nemecek database.

To link the 289 food items from the FFQ with environmental data, we first identified those foods ( n = 132) that could be linked directly with data from the Poore and Nemecek database. These foods were either single-ingredient foods (for example, peaches, salmon, beefsteak, milk) or were commonly consumed staples (for example, bread, alcoholic drinks). These links are shown in the Supplementary Data 1 (Supplementary Section 1).

For the remaining 157 foods, we matched on keywords with products from the food and drinks in the foodDB data extract. We matched with 4,015 unique food and drink products. The median number of product matches was 11, ranging from 1 for frozen mousse to 500 for chips. To link with multiple foods, we used the mean of the environmental impact. These links are shown in the Supplementary Data 1 (Supplementary Section 1), as are the links between these 4,015 food and drink products and the food categories from the Poore and Nemecek database. We made adjustments to convert from weight as sold to weight as consumed using conversion factors from our previous study14.

Statistical analysis

We compared age, gender and measures of dietary intake across the diet groups, and differences were assessed by analysis of variance for continuous variables and Pearson's chi-squared test for categorical variables. To account for different energy intakes across diet groups, environmental measures were standardized to a daily diet of 2,000 kcal by proportionately scaling all consumption of different food and drinks. This allowed us to isolate the differences between the diet groups that are purely a result of the composition (rather than the amount) of food consumed. As kilocalorie intake varies by age and gender, and these variables also vary by diet group, standardizing the kilocalorie intake also protects our results from confounding. In addition, standardizing the kilocalorie intake of diets avoids the potential for artificial differences that could result if the average portion sizes for fruit, vegetables and cereals differ across diet groups. However, standardizing by kilocalorie intake also obscures differences that result from variation in kilocalorie intake by diet group; therefore, as a sensitivity analysis we reproduced all results without standardization to a daily diet of 2,000 kcal.

All of the results that compare environmental measures by diet group have been standardized by the age and gender breakdown in the full EPIC-Oxford sample, so that the influence of age and gender are removed from comparisons. Our results are presented for both genders combined. We have also analysed the data separately for men and women and did not find any differences for any environmental indicators in our primary analyses.

Our primary results are derived from a two-stage Monte Carlo analysis that accounted for uncertainty due to variation in agricultural production methods and where food is produced. For example, the EPIC-Oxford FFQ collects data on consumption of beef. This FFQ item is linked with two items from the McCance and Widdowson nutrition tables (beefsteak and beef fat). The environmental footprint of beefsteak varies depending on how it is produced (for example, pasture fed or intensively reared) and where it is produced (for example, UK or Brazil). This variability is captured by the LCAs in the Poore and Nemecek database-there are 24 LCAs of 'bovine meat (beef herd)' in the database. Stage 1 of our Monte Carlo analysis produced distributions of environmental indicators for all of the foods that were linked to the EPIC-Oxford FFQ simultaneously. For each food, we randomly drew 1,000 samples from the distributions of each environmental indicator in the Poore and Nemecek database (for multi-ingredient foods, this would involve drawing across multiple Poore and Nemcek categories-see the Supplementary Data 1 for more information). In stage 2, we used these 1,000 estimates of food-level environmental indicators to generate 1,000 estimates of the environmental indicators for the diets of each of the EPIC-Oxford participants. The 95% uncertainty intervals around our primary results are taken from the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of these iterations. Ratios of the environmental impact are presented, with high meat-eaters as the baseline group. These ratios (and accompanying 95% uncertainty intervals) are the median (and 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles) from results derived separately in each of the 1,000 iterations.

Our secondary analysis accounts for uncertainty due to variation in individual-level diet choices for the EPIC-Oxford participants. We estimated marginal results from a regression analysis adjusted for age and gender, where environmental indicators are fixed at the median level from the Poore and Nemecek database. The marginal results are equivalent to the age and gender standardized results from the primary analysis but only incorporate uncertainty from sampling variance. The secondary results are shown in Supplementary Tables 1 and 2.

Acknowledgements

This paper would not be possible without access to J. Poore's excellent database of life-cycle assessments, and we thank him for his support on this paper. C. Stewart (previously of the Nuffield Department of Primary Health Care Sciences at Oxford University; now at the University of Edinburgh) kindly re-analysed NDNS data to help with scaling our estimates of the impact of the food system to the UK population. We acknowledge the use of the University of Oxford Advanced Research Computing (ARC) facility in carrying out this work ( https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22558). This work was supported by the Wellcome Trust, Our Planet Our Health (Livestock, Environment and People-LEAP) (grant number 205212/Z/16/Z), Cancer Research UK (grant number C8221/A29017) and the UK Medical Research Council (grant number MR/M012190/1). P.S. is supported by the NIHR Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre at Oxford. K.P. is supported by Cancer Research UK (C570/A16491 and A29186). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

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Author notes

Independent Researcher: Anika Knuppel.

Authors and Affiliations

1. Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Oxford, UK

Peter Scarborough & Richard Harrington

2. NIHR Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre at Oxford, Warneford Hospital, Oxford, UK

Peter Scarborough & Richard Harrington

3. Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

Michael Clark & Marco Springmann

4. Griffith University, Southport, Queensland, Australia

Linda Cobiac

5. Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

Keren Papier & Tim Key

6. Nature-based Solutions Initiative, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

John Lynch

Contributions

P.S., M.C., K.P., A.K., J.L., R.H., T.K. and M.S. conceived of and designed the experiments. P.S., M.C., L.C. and K.P. performed the experiments. P.S., M.C., L.C. and K.P. analysed the data. P.S., M.C., L.C., K.P., A.K., J.L., R.H., T.K. and M.S. contributed materials/analysis tools. P.S. wrote the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Peter Scarborough.

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Supplementary Tables 1-13.

Supplementary data tables.

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Scarborough, P., Clark, M., Cobiac, L. et al. Vegans, vegetarians, fish-eaters and meat-eaters in the UK show discrepant environmental impacts. Nat Food 4, 565-574 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00795-w
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Vegans, vegetarians, fish-eaters and meat-eaters in the UK show discrepant environmental impacts - Nature Food

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Modelled estimates of the environmental impact of dietary choices often fail to reflect true dietary practice. This study links a dietary dataset from 55,000 UK consumers with food-level data on GHG emissions, land use, water use, eutrophication and biodiversity to compare the environmental burden of different levels of meat consumption.

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Denis Saint-MartinL’auteur est professeur titulaire de science politique à l’Université de Montréal.

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Les manchettes rapportaient dernièrement que le commissaire au lobbying du Québec avait formulé plus d’une centaine de recommandations pour réformer les lois et les institutions qui encadrent la transparence et l’éthique en matière de lobbying.