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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiTgV8eQczs

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRggtYdponk

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJE31gqYcAc

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKl8Kfi1_Mo

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Race Distribution of the Minnesota 1st Congressional District

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Race Distribution of the Minnesota 1st Congressional District

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White - 90.25%
Black - 3.04%
Asian - 2.66%
Hispanic - 6.36%
Native American - 0.5%

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Urban-Rural Population Distribution of the Minnesota 1st Congressional District

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Urban-Rural Population Distribution of the Minnesota 1st Congressional District

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Urban - 62.53%
Rural - 37.47%

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White - 74.9%
Black - 11.9%
Asian - 4.2%
Hispanic/Latino - 38.4%
Pacific Islander - 0.1%

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Urban-Rural Population Distribution of Texas

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Urban-Rural Population Distribution of Texas

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Urban - 85%
Rural - 15%

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Our Prediction for the Minnesota 1st House Election

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Our Prediction for the Minnesota 1st House Election

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Dan Feehan will become the representative for the Minnesota 1st congressional district by a close margin. One of the main reasons that Feehan will take it is that the previous incumbent Tim Walz as well as previous president Barack Obama has endorsed him. These endorsements are especially important since the district has historically voted Walz into office since 2007 and also have voted Obama in both years that he ran. Another important aspect is that Feehan has outfunded and outspent Jim Hagedorn almost 3 to 1. He has raised $3,572,977 while Hagedorn has only raised $1,355,111 and this indicates that Feehan has been able to reach more potential voters through the increased outreach that his money brings than Hagedorn. However, Jim Hagedorn has run twice against Tim Walz and in 2016 and lost by a difference of less than 1%. This statistic coupled with the facts that the district voted for Trump by a large margin of 14.8% along with Hagedorn’s similar views and endorsement from Trump as also with the demographics, 37.47% rural and 90.5% White, leaning towards a Republican majority illustrates that he also has many things going for him. Recent polling has also shown that this district is a toss-up, but in the end - regardless of political views- both candidates have received strong endorsements and precedence for the seat, but only one has gone the extra mile and spent more into this election which means that many more potential voters in the district will know that Dan Feehan exists over Jim Hagedorn.

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Incumbent Texas Senator

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Candidate for Texas Senator Position

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Candidate for Minnesota 1st House Seat

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Candidate for Minnesota 1st House Seat

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Our Prediction for the Texas Senate Election

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Our Prediction for the Texas Senate Election

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Cruz will be re-elected as the Texas Senator. Cruz reflects the beliefs and desires of Texans much more than Beto O’Rourke, who despite having traveled to all 254 Texas counties and developing a rhetoric as a unifier, has not changed any of his strictly left beliefs to match those of the Texas people. And while many may argue that Texas has similar beliefs to Beto, we are not so sure raising taxes of the oil industry that is so essential to Texas would help the economy. Additionally, Texas doing well economically, and the only way Beto is raising support is by unifying everyone against Trump and the Republicans. By leading a great grassroots campaign, Beto does have a chance. He is adopting a lot of unique and effective techniques such as rallying support from voters who aren’t often targeted and using yard signs heavily to advertise. Beto also receives a lot of funding from Democrats all across the nation hoping to unseat a major Republican seatholder, proving their acclaimed Blue Wave. However, these strategies, at the end of the day, aren’t what will drive voters to the polls overwhelmingly enough to flip Texas blue. Beto’s charisma and relatability to a more diverse voter subset could help, but his policies are dramatically different from the improvements that Texas needs.

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Texas Senate

Benning, Tom. “Fact Check: Is Ted Cruz Correct That Beto O'Rourke Supported a $10 per Barrel Tax on Oil?” Dallas News, 9 Oct. 2018, www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/10/08/fact-check-ted-cruz-correct-beto-orourke-supported-10-per-barrel-tax-oil.

“Beto for Texas.” Beto for Senate, betofortexas.com/.

Diaz, Kevin, and Alejandra Matos. “Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz Draws Millions in Contributions from Outside of Texas.” HoustonChronicle.com, Houston Chronicle, 12 July 2018, www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Beto-O-Rourke-vs-Ted-Cruz-draws-millions-in-13066862.php.

Murphy, Ryan. “Texas Primaries 2018: Full Election Results.” The Texas Tribune, 6 Mar. 2018, apps.texastribune.org/elections/2018/primary-election-results/.

News, Global. “Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke Square off in Final Debate before Midterm Election.” YouTube, YouTube, 24 Oct. 2018, www.youtube.com/watch?v=9t32LMWL-fg.

News, NBC. “Ted Cruz And Beto O'Rourke Face Off In First Debate | NBC News.” YouTube, YouTube, 21 Sept. 2018, www.youtube.com/watch?v=efTm9eZ1qvM&t=1010s.

“Splash Page.” Ted Cruz for Senate, www.tedcruz.org/.

State of Texas - Secretary of State. “Texas Secretary of State World Wide Web Homepage.” Texas Secretary of State, www.sos.state.tx.us/.

“United States Senate Election in Texas, 2018.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2018.

Minnesota 1st

Brodey, Sam. “The Race in Minnesota's 1st Congressional District Is Either about Politics or Personality - Depending on Which Candidate You Ask.” MinnPost, Minnesota Post, 26 Oct. 2018, www.minnpost.com/national/2018/10/the-race-in-minnesotas-1st-congressional-district-is-either-about-politics-or-personality-depending-on-which-candidate-you-ask/.

Feehan, Dan. “Minnesota's 1st Congressional District.” Dan Feehan for Congress, danfeehan.com/.

Hagedorn, Jim. “Hagedorn for Congress.” Hagedorn for Congress, www.jimhagedorn.org/.

“Minnesota's 1st Congressional District Election, 2018.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2018.

Nelson, Cody. “Minnesota Voter Guide: Where the 1st District Candidates Stand on the Issues.” Minnesota Public Radio News, 10 Oct. 2018, www.mprnews.org/story/2018/10/10/feehan-vs-hagedorn-minnesota-1st-congressional-district-voter-guide.

“Office of the State Of Minnesota Secretary of State.” Minnesota Secretary Of State - Home, www.sos.state.mn.us/.

Orrick, Dave. “A Lot Is at Stake in Tuesday's Elections. Here's a Refresher.” Twin Cities, Twin Cities, 4 Nov. 2018, www.twincities.com/2018/11/04/theres-a-lot-at-stake-in-tuesdays-elections-heres-a-refresher/.

Silver, Nate. “Minnesota 1st - 2018 House Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight, 3 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/minnesota/1/

General

Bafumi, Joseph, et al. “Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election Using National Polls and District Information.” PS: Political Science & Politics, vol. 51, no. S1, 2018, pp. 7–11., doi:10.1017/s1049096518001579.

Bergad, Laird W. “Can Beto O'Rourke Defeat Ted Cruz in the November 2018 Texas Senatorial Race? Race, Age, Voter Registration and Participation Rates in the Lone Star State.” CUNY Academic Works, academicworks.cuny.edu/clacls_pubs/81/.

Campbell, James E. “Introduction: Forecasting the 2018 US Midterm Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics, vol. 51, no. S1, 2018, pp. 1–3., doi:10.1017/s1049096518001592.

“Data on Campaign Finance, Super PACs, Industries, and Lobbying.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/.In-text CitationCheck for GrammarCheck for Plagiarism

“Republican National Committee.” GOP, www.gop.com/.

“The Democrats.” Democrats, democrats.org/.

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Incumbent Texas Senators
Ted Cruz (R) and John Cornyn (R)
However it is Ted Cruz's seat that is up for re-election

John Cornyn (R)
Texas Senator since 2002, current Senate Majority Whip, and previously served as Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

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The two candidates for the Texas Senate Race are Beto O'Rourke (D) and Ted Cruz (R)

Beto O'Rourke (D)
Fourth generation Texan who has served on the El Paso City Council and in Congress where he was on the House Committees for Armed Services and Veterans Affairs. Much of his focus lies on improving veterans' ability to get health care and other benefits.

Ted Cruz (R)
Cruz maintains a background in law and has influenced several Supreme Court cases and is recognized for his staunchly conservative opinions regarding several hot topics including abortion, and gun control.

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Controversial Topics in the Minnesota 1st

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Controversial Topics in the Minnesota 1st

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Healthcare

Jim Hagedorn, like a good little conservative, believes that ObamaCare should be repealed and that the private health sector should be bolstered in order to  promote free market ideals and competition.

Dan Feehan is a big supporter of the Affordable Health Care for America Act as he believes that many people can't afford private health care and that universal health care coverage is possible to implement.

Immigration

Jim Hagedorn supports the Trump administration's views regarding immigration as he supports the wall, ICE, and strong border security.

Dan Feehan supports the DACA program and believes that comprehensive immigration reform that should provide a pathway to citizenship for those that pay taxes and don’t have a criminal record, targets those who hire and “bait” undocumented immigrants into coming into the US, develop a guest worker system.

Climate Change

Once again, Jim Hagedorn follows the Trump administration's lead and is against the Paris Climate Agreement and carbon taxes.

Dan Feehan is for carbon taxes and the Paris Climate Agreement and advocates for a shift toward alternative green energy sources.

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The two candidates for the Minnesota 1st are Dan Feehan (D) and Jim Hagedorn (R)

Dan Feehan (D)
- Veteran, Former Teacher, Former Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Obama Administration. His campaign strategy can be likened to that of incumbent Tim Walz as they both emphasize the character qualities of the candidate.

Jim Hagedorn (R)
- Has been running for his district's House position for the past 5 years. Hagedorn's campaign is focused on his stance on certain hot topic issues like abortion, national defense, and gun control.

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Currently held by Tim Walz (D)
-incumbent giving up the seat
-race between former Obama administration official (Dan Feehan) and former US Treasury Official (Jim Hagehorn)

Interesting election
-district voted for Obama twice, but flipped in favor of Trump by 15-point margin as a pivot district in 2016