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Helping peripheral communities in Pakistan resist seasonal flooding 

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Helping peripheral communities in Pakistan resist seasonal flooding 

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Helping peripheral communities resist seasonal flooding - Acted

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The village of Sohrab Lashari sits on the tail end of the river Indus in Sindh province, Pakistan. Given the enormous demand on water further upstream.

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Towards sustainable housing in upper Sindh

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Towards sustainable housing in upper Sindh

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It is important to understand the effectiveness of individual measures in terms of flood mitigation impact when considering structural solutions for flood mitigation.

Depending on locality and the nature of the flooding, a number of structural and non-structural mitigation measures may be available. However, flood mitigation measures may only lessen the impact of flooding. No amount of intervention can stop heavy rain or high tides.

Structural flood mitigation

Structural flood mitigation is where physical structures are constructed or modified to reduce the impact of flooding on individual properties or whole catchments and include:

Infrastructure, including dams, levees, bridges and culverts

When considering structural solutions, it is important to understand the effectiveness of individual measures in terms of flood mitigation impact. For example, some works may reduce flooding to a large area by centimetres which provides minimal benefit to a large number of homeowners that are least affected by flooding and almost no benefit to those homeowners that are worst affected.

Maintenance of existing infrastructure

Ongoing maintenance to existing creeks and stormwater drainage systems is vital to maintain the hydraulic performance of drains. Developing and reviewing a regular maintenance schedule for flood prone areas can provide significant benefit during seasonal rains. While targeted clearing of creek systems does not always help reduce the impact of large flood events, it does help reduce the impact of smaller, more frequent floods.

Individual flood proofing measures

Where the inundation of flood water is relatively low (nominally less than 700mm), it may be possible to keep flood waters out of homes by installing solid fences, raising windows, sealing doors with 'stop boards' and limiting sewage contamination through reflux or backflow valves.

Improved traffic access

Improving the flood resilience of roads provides a benefit to flood-affected residents by allowing residents to escape floods and allowing emergency service access. Key routes to essential services such as hospitals and emergency shelters should have at least a Q100 flood immunity.

Non-structural flood mitigation

Property surveys

Detailed surveys of flood affected residences can increase the accuracy of flood modelling so that homeowners, insurers and buyers can understand the actual impact of flooding on each property.

Land use planning controls

Strategic land use planning will identify the extent of flood impacted land to limit the construction of urban and rural residential, commercial and industrial land. The NT Planning Scheme requires all new developments to undertake land suitability investigations to determine the extent of constrained land.

Building and development controls

Existing building controls require new homes or substantial renovations to construct habitable floor levels 300mm above Q100 year flood levels, to provide some level of protection from flooding.

Catchment flood modelling

Maintaining up-to-date flood models of developing catchments assists the Development Consent Authority to understand the impact of new development on existing residents in the catchment. New land developments are required to manage the rate at which stormwater leaves the development to maintain the pre-development rate of flow.

Early warning systems

As many floods occur at night, early warning systems are extremely important in flash flooding events to provide residents with the ability to respond to impending flood waters. This may include relocating of parked vehicles, collecting pets and valuables and implementing personal emergency plans.

Develop a household emergency plan

In conjunction with a household emergency kit, a household emergency plan is essential for all Territorians. Regardless of any mitigation measures, every household must be prepared for extreme weather, including flooding.

Access to information and warnings

The Northern Territory Government's Secure NT website gives advice on planning for emergencies and provides up-to-date information during and after emergencies including major flooding, extreme weather and cyclones. Other useful sites include:

Go to the Northern Territory Government website to view storm surge flood maps and flood plain maps.

Understanding and awareness

Knowing your local flood history and developing an understanding of how floods behave in your area provides you with the ability to respond in time to an impending flood. Monitoring tide and rainfall forecasts can alert residents when the conditions that may result in flooding could occur.

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Flood proofing the Northern Territory and information on storm surge survival and emergency kits.

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Disruption in clean water supply and food. 

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Disruption in clean water supply and food. 

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For decades, Manzoor Hussain Khoso had a good life on his 16-acre farm in Pakistan's Sindh province. The wheat and rice he cultivated allowed the 64-year-old to provide for his family of nine. But all that changed in August 2022 when unprecedented flooding turned his village into a lake. It would remain completely submerged for nearly two months.

"I lost all my crops," Khoso told The New Humanitarian. "The government said they would provide us with seeds for wheat cultivation, but we received nothing."

Families across the country were devastated by the floods. More than 1,700 people died, 33 million were affected, and an estimated eight million were displaced. To make matters worse, some 9.4 million acres of crops were destroyed and more than 1.1 million farm animals perished.

The floodwaters finally receded and the harvesting of cotton, a key crop, resumed in much of Sindh. But residents of the nation's second most-populous province - from landowners to small-scale farmers, from manual labourers to government workers - told The New Humanitarian they're still struggling to feed themselves more than a year later.

"We still live in tents and borrow money to make ends meet," said Khoso.

Scientists have attributed the flood disaster to climate change. But equally crippling in its aftermath have been political and economic crises that have led to soaring food and energy prices, plummeting currency values, and an increasingly angry populace unable to afford basic goods and services.

"Everyone in flood-affected areas [has] lost their livelihoods and, with the inflation, they have no means to support themselves," said Wazir Ali, a 42-year-old farmer with 40 acres of land just outside Khairpur Nathan Shah, a major town in northern Sindh known as K.N. Shah.

Since last year's no-confidence motion that resulted in the ouster of former prime minister Imran Khan, Pakistan's political crisis has been a distraction from efforts to fix the struggling economy, with the humanitarian response in places like Sindh also taking a backseat.

In June, the country of 241 million narrowly avoided default after reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund for a $3 billion rescue package, which included conditions such as increasing fuel prices. Recently, protests against rising petrol and electricity prices have turned violent.

There is food, but people can't afford it

A recent assessment of 43 rural districts in the three provinces most affected by floods - Balochistan, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa - found that 29% of the population were experiencing high levels of hunger.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) system - created to track food insecurity and more accurately predict extreme hunger and famine - has warned that the situation is expected to worsen between November 2023 and January 2024.

Continued food inflation will likely be a contributing factor. Though overall inflation slowed to 27.4% in August from a record high of 38% in May, food prices remained high in both urban and rural areas. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics says food inflation continues to hover between 38.8% and 40.6%.

This has led to a situation where people can't afford food, even when plenty is available, explained Arshad Muhammad, country director for the international aid agency Mercy Corps. Muhammad pointed to this year's bumper harvest of wheat, and Pakistan's position as one of the world's top 10 wheat producers, as further evidence of the paradox millions of Pakistanis now find themselves facing.

Take for example Moomal, whose family lives in K.N. Shah. The 48-year-old said her husband's income as a manual labourer can no longer cover the family's basic expenses.

"We cannot afford to buy [cooking] oil," said Moomal, who only gave one name. "We cook the same vegetables almost every day without any spices. We haven't had meat in months. We can't even afford to make tea in the evenings."

Sitting in the two-room house shared by four families that still bears the marks and cracks caused by last year's floods, Moomal explained how the family has been forced to cut back due to the combination of her husband's decreasing income and the record-high inflation.

"Before the floods, everything was better," she said. "Now, whatever little income we have goes towards food."

The hunger is also having a very real effect on future generations of Moomal's family. Her heavily pregnant daughter-in-law fears the impact her meagre diet could have on the health of her unborn child.

"I feel weak because I do not get to eat," said 27-year-old Noor, now in her ninth month. "I have barely eaten any fruit during this pregnancy."

Illness has prevented her husband from working. "He has stomach issues and TB, so he is unable to work although he is employed as a vaccinator in the hospital," Noor said.

Throughout the country, low-income households in flood-affected areas continue to suffer, even in some of Pakistan's biggest cities.

In Karachi, the capital of Sindh, Parveen Saeed, the founder of the Khana Ghar community kitchen, said she is now feeding 8,000 people a day, compared to 4,000 or 5,000 a couple of years ago.

Established in 2002, the kitchen charges three rupees - about three US cents - for a plate of curry and flatbread, but she has started providing the meals free to those who can't afford it.

"We used to be able to support anyone who asked for help, but now the amount of people asking for donations has increased so much that as a small, independent organisation we aren't able to help everyone," she said.

In the long line of people snaked outside Saeed's office waiting for food, Rizwana told The New Humanitarian she has been relying on Khana Ghar to feed her family of seven for five years: "The queues are getting longer," she said. "Sometimes, I leave without getting food."

Climate crisis continues to loom large

In the mountainous and sparsely populated province of Balochistan to the northwest of Sindh, weather-related disasters have slashed harvests for a populace already used to years of hardship thanks to extreme weather.

Maryam Jamali, the 20-year-old co-founder of Indigenous-led community organisation Madat Balochistan, said recurring floods and droughts have affected her district, Jaffarabad, for the past 15 years. Coming after a prolonged drought, the 2022 floods destroyed rice harvests and seeds for wheat, while heavy rains this year wiped out the wheat harvest.

"There hasn't been a year where there was enough food that I know of in my lifetime," Jamali said. "Many of the places we are working are agricultural-based economies," she explained. "They have no other source of income... so when agriculture is gone they have nothing to survive on."

Jamali said sharecropping, practised by many small-scale Pakistani farmers, was contributing to this plight.

Under this system, farmers rely on loans - either from merchants or informal lenders - to buy fertiliser and seeds and pay them back with a portion of their crops. When harvests are destroyed, farmers end up deeper in debt. Still, agriculture remains the country's largest sector, employing nearly half of the labour force and contributing about 24% of its GDP.

But farming is also highly vulnerable to changes in precipitation and temperature. Farmers, landlords, and aid workers told The New Humanitarian they are seeing more frequent floods and subtle shifts in planting seasons.

"The cropping calendar I have observed in my lifetime has been changing. Pakistan is not prepared or fully adapted to these changes in the climate," said Aamer Irshad, assistant representative for the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization in Pakistan.

Climate change is already bringing both excessive monsoon rainfall and prolonged heat waves to the country, according to World Weather Attribution, a global research collaboration that analyses linkages between extreme weather and climate change.

Irrigation, a key basis for Pakistani farmers, is also under threat as the availability of water is not predictable anymore, said Mercy Corps' Muhammad.

Habib Wardag, a food security expert with Save The Children Pakistan, added that the El Niño phenomenon, associated with drier-than-normal conditions, is already reducing rainfall in parts of Sindh and Balochistan. He warned that if local food production is further reduced as a result of climate change, Pakistan could face trouble on both fronts - higher prices as well as lower production.

Over-reliance on imports and cereals

The combination of rising hunger and malnutrition, economic and political woes, and weather extremes makes it all the more urgent to ensure that Pakistan's food system is resilient and can provide enough nutritious food that is affordable, aid experts said.

But, they added, the country's reliance on imports (including for nearly 90% of its edible oils), the lack of government support for nutritious foods, and the culture of carbohydrate-heavy diets (high in calories but low in nutrients) all pose serious challenges.

Pakistani farmers depend on fertilisers from Ukraine and Russia, and the price of one key fertiliser has increased by nearly five times compared to three years ago, according to Irshad.

Government policies and investment also support cotton and cereals - rice, wheat, sugarcane, and maize - while the development of nutritious foods such as fruits, vegetables, and fish is marginalised, Irshad said: "The government is indirectly supporting less diversity and, therefore, the food that Pakistanis eat is not very healthy."

The government also needs to put more money into researching the best farming practices to mitigate and adapt to climate change, according to Farrah Naz, country director for the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN).

"Many stakeholders are trying to work on climate-smart agriculture and there are efforts at developing more climate-adaptable seed varieties," Naz said, calling for experts with proven track records to help small-scale farmers produce food sustainably and effectively.

But it's not all in the Pakistani government's hands. World leaders also need to keep the commitments made during the last climate negotiations to financially support vulnerable countries like Pakistan, said Muhammad, alluding to promises to set up a loss and damage fund to help those hit by disasters.

"A delay in meeting [those commitments] has an impact on people's lives, their children's lives, and what they eat," he said.

The lack of support, and of solutions, is keenly felt in the flood-hit Sindh village of Bhooro Magrio, where worries about food and health preoccupy Maira, a young mother taking a break with a group of female farm workers.

"We earn 250-300 rupees (almost $3) per day picking cotton, but work is seasonal. What [should] we prioritise with such a low income and high inflation - food or medicines?" asked the 20-year-old, who has been working as a farm labourer for four years.

"My son only gets to eat bread and boiled potatoes," she said. "I always feel weak, and the doctor said I am anaemic and underweight."
(CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) The New Humanitarian puts quality, independent journalism at the service of the millions of people affected by humanitarian crises around the world. Find out more at www.thenewhumanitarian.org

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For Pakistan flood victims, crises collide to fuel growing hunger

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In the aftermath of Pakistan's August 2022 floods, political and economic crises have led to soaring food and energy prices, plummeting currency values, and an increasingly angry populace unable to afford basic goods and services.

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Strain on social services because of devastation floods in Sindh and Baluchistan. 

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Strain on social services because of devastation floods in Sindh and Baluchistan. 

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Pakistan: 2022 Monsoon Floods - Situation Report No. 11 (As of 11 November 2022) - Pakistan

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Situation Report in English on Pakistan about Agriculture, Coordination, Epidemic, Flash Flood and more; published on 13 Nov 2022 by OCHA

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Education snapshot after 2022 floods-Pakistan Education Sector Working Group-EIE.

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Education snapshot after 2022 floods-Pakistan Education Sector Working Group-EIE.

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The education sector has been severely impacted by the recent flood and rain emergency. At least 25,993 schools have been damaged or destroyed in the region of Sindh, Balochistan, Punjab and KP due to the floods with data collection still ongoing. In addition, more than 7,062 schools that were not damaged have turned into relief camps to provide shelter to the flood affected population. The use of schools as temporary shelter for displaced people is disrupting schooling and the ongoing academic year, and expected cause loss of learning materials and further damages to education infrastructure including WASH facilities, requiring cleanng and renovation later. '

Based on current estimation, more than 3.5 millions children have had their education interupted due to the destruction all over the country. In addition, teaching and learing materials including books, copies, blackboards, tables, and other education furniture worth millions of rupees have been completely destroyed as well.

In the refugee villages, 61 schools (26 in KPK & 35 in Balochistan) have been affected and learning process of 27,148 (58.7% girls) children has been affected.

After two years of COVID-19 pandemic school closures, children once again risk further disruption to their learning, in areas where one-third of girls and boys were already out-of-school before the crisis. Restoring access to learning through Temporary Learning Centers and other modalities would mitigate the impact of interruption of education services, provide a safe space and better protection for children, and assist in providing a sense of normalcy.
Despite the overwhelming need, education remains underfunded. So far only USD 5 million has been committed by ECW for supporting education sector oods response of the USD 10.2 million needed for an immediate emergency response

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Pakistan Floods: Education Snapshot - 30 September 2022 - Pakistan

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Infographic in English on Pakistan about Education, Flash Flood and Flood; published on 30 Sep 2022 by Education Cluster, Save the Children and 2count other organizations

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Disruption of education in flooded areas. 

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Disruption of education in flooded areas. 

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How are the children of Pakistan's 2022 floods faring?

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In 2022, catastrophic floods hit Pakistan, impacting access to education for more than 3.5 million children. A year on, the disruption to education and the lack of focus on learning recovery will likely have long-term effects on Pakistan's human capital.

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Women faced worsening mental health and reproductive issues in Sindh and Baluchistan. 

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Women faced worsening mental health and reproductive issues in Sindh and Baluchistan. 

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People from flood-affected areas wait to receive food aid in Lal Bagh, Sindh province, Pakistan, September 13, 2022 [Pervez Masih/AP Photo]

Islamabad, Pakistan - It has been two weeks since Hasina Mugheri returned to her village in Pakistan's southern province of Sindh, which was devastated by unprecedented floods in August.

Each day, Mugheri relives the trauma of the night that she and her family were forced to evacuate from their home in the village of Khair Muhammed Mugheri because of the rising, rushing floodwaters. She was 10-weeks pregnant.

Keep reading

"We did eventually manage to find [a] roof over our heads, so I am very grateful to god for that," said the 42-year-old.

"But it cost me my child."

Mugheri narrated how she, her husband and 21 members of their household spent the night out in the open, before walking more than five kilometres (three miles) in the rain and darkness to reach a government school in the city of Johi where they found shelter.

"Within two days of reaching there, I started bleeding, and asked my husband to take me to the hospital. The doctors said that stress, and all the walking perhaps caused the loss of [my] pregnancy. But what else can I do now, except praying," Mugheri told Al Jazeera.

For Mugheri, the loss of her pregnancy was a painful reminder of the last major flood in her village in 2010. Then, too, she lost a child who was only seven-days old.

The repeated trauma has sent her spiralling into depression, she said.

"I last had a daughter nine years ago. I have already endured multiple miscarriages. You always hope for the best and are looking forward to become a mother again but then things like this happens," she recalled.

"I was just completely bedridden in a room full of people, with no privacy, and no space to grieve."

One in five million women

Mugheri is one of the five million women of reproductive age who are currently living in squalid conditions in Pakistan's flood-affected areas, with a vast majority in the worst-hit province of Sindh.

According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), as of November 10, more than 400,000 women are currently pregnant in the flood-affected regions of Pakistan, with another 136,000 women expected to give birth in the next three months.

Dr Nighat Shah, a women's health specialist associated with Karachi's Aga Khan Hospital, said that more than maternal and reproductive health issues, it is their mental health that concerns her the most.

"We have gone to multiple camps across Sindh where thousands of women are stranded, living in awful conditions, and the displacement has caused immense trauma to them," she told Al Jazeera.

While the floodwaters have started receding, allowing many to return to whatever is left of their homes, there is little hope for the millions of people who lost their belongings and means of livelihood.

Counting the cost

At least 1,739 people, including 647 children, have died and 33 million people were affected after record-breaking rains began lashing Pakistan in June, according to the country's disaster management authority.

Sindh and the adjoining province of Balochistan remain the worst hit, with 799 and 336 deaths, respectively.

At their peak, the floods, caused by a "monsoon on steroids" as described by the United Nations chief Antonio Guterres, left more than one-third of the country submerged.

It resulted in damage to more than 13,000km (8,000 miles) of road networks as well as more than two million houses, which were either partially or completely destroyed. A million livestock was lost as well as thousands of acres of agricultural land.

According to the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment report prepared by the government, with assistance from the UN and other international organisations, the total damage is estimated to exceed $14.9bn, and total economic losses to reach about $15.2bn.

Daily struggles continue

But for thousands of women like Mugheri, it is the daily struggles that overshadow the big numbers and systemic, infrastructure issues.

Tasmina, a 25-year-old mother of two, said she had no choice but to sell her wedding ring, a gift from her mother, to buy medicines for her family and herself.

She said her husband and children suffered from malaria, while she was down with gastroenteritis, when they were living in a camp for displaced people near Johi city in Sindh.

"My ring, which was a wedding present from my mother was worth 10,000 rupees ($44). But when we all fell sick, I did not have money to buy medicines. I ended up selling it for 3,500 rupees ($15)," she told Al Jazeera.

Recalling her time at the camp where she spent more than two months, Tasmina said the conditions were horrific, with no sanitation services or hygiene, as hundreds of men and women were forced to use the same temporary toilet facilities, with limited water.

"When I got [my] periods, it became even more difficult and embarrassing for me. There was no segregation, no clean cloth was available, and not enough water to wash what I had with me. Just thinking about that time is making me cry. Only god is our witness how we spent those days," she told Al Jazeera.

Women suffered the most

Raheema Panhwar, the provincial coordinator for WaterAid, a non-profit group that works in the area of sanitation and hygiene, told Al Jazeera that while the floods inflicted pain and misery across communities, it was the women who often suffered the most.

"Many girls face trauma and anxiety, particularly those who started their periods for the first time. They feel shame and fear because they don't have any knowledge how to manage their periods. And there is no adequate support from the family due to circumstances," she said.

Dr Muhammed Juman, the director general of health in Sindh, acknowledged that the scope of the disaster had made it extremely difficult to provide relief.

Women have suffered anxiety and trauma, which is often reflected in the various ailments they face, he said.

"We have directed a large number of our female health workers to go to these camps and locations where affected communities are, and they have conducted thousands of sessions. But it really is a question of capacity. The flood caused infrastructure damage, resulting in affecting service delivery," he said.

Juman said they were trying to train their health workers to provide psycho-social support.

"There are a lot of psychological issues which are being reported, and we need to prepare for that. We are engaging female staff, such as more doctors, midwives, nurses, etc."

How and what to rebuild

Mugheri, who now lives in a tent with her husband and five children as the floods destroyed her house, wondered how will she rebuild her life.

"I just wish god does not put anybody else through this misery. I often get panic attacks and I remain awake all night," she said.

"I endured one flood, but this time, things are so much worse, and for us women, things are far more difficult for us."

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Women survived Pakistan's floods but face worsening health crisis

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Hundreds of thousands of women are still struggling with reproductive issues and spiralling mental health concerns.

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Situation of women and young girls during flood 2022. 

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Situation of women and young girls during flood 2022. 

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Addressing Persistent Challenges Faced by Flood-Affected Women and Girls in Pakistan – one year on

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ISLAMABAD, August 30, 2023 – A year after Pakistan faced the unprecedented devastation caused by Monsoon floods followed by a declaration of national state of emergency, the dire situation for women and girls

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Quantifying the poverty impacts of flood on Sindh and Baluchistan

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Quantifying the poverty impacts of flood on Sindh and Baluchistan

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Exacerbated by climate change, the 2022 Monsoon Floods in Pakistan severely affected the lives and livelihoods of millions of people, especially in the Sindh and Balochistan provinces. The floods particularly impacted the poorest and most vulnerable, who are disproportionately more likely to live in flood-affected areas. Pakistan’s Post Disaster Needs Assessment estimates suggest that the floods may have led as many as 9.1 million people--or four percentage points--into poverty. This work was featured by the government of Pakistan as part of its advocacy for ‘loss and damages’ at COP 27.

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Exacerbated by climate change, the 2022 Monsoon Floods in Pakistan severely affected the lives and livelihoods of millions of people, especially in the Sindh and Balochistan provinces. The floods particularly impacted the poorest and most vulnerable, who are disproportionately more likely to live in flood-affected areas. Pakistan's Post Disaster Needs Assessment estimates suggest that the floods may have led as many as 9.1 million people--or four percentage points--into poverty. This work was featured by the government of Pakistan as part of its advocacy for 'loss and damages' at COP 27.

How then were those estimates constructed?

Measuring poverty in real-time

Quantifying the poverty impact informs the humanitarian response and the allocation of resources during the recovery. It also highlights the relevance of sub-national patterns because natural disasters are often geographically concentrated and disproportionally affect specific segments of the population-notably farmers in rural areas.

In an emergency, the limited availability of real-time data on the ground poses a particular constraint requiring innovative approaches. The availability of satellite data overlaid with household survey data allows for rapid estimates of the extent and severity of the flooding. This combination of data allowed us to calculate how the damage impacted people and, from there, derive an estimate of the increase in poverty. These estimates were later validated using data collected by the government in flood-affected districts.

Leveraging geospatial data

Within days, multiple space agencies published satellite data of the fluvial flooding. These high-resolution images showed the geographic extent of the flooding, highlighting large parts of the country along the southern Indus River, which were underwater.

This remotely sensed maximum flood extent closely resembles the probabilistic scenarios representing events with a frequency of 1 in 100 and 1 in 1,000 years floods, presented in the recent Pakistan Climate Change and Development Report (CCDR). We combined this flood layer together with other geospatial information, such as population distribution and indicators of economic activity, to calculate their exposure to floods. The spatial modeling of the population comes from the 2019 World Settlement Footprint.

Integrating household data

The impact of floods on household welfare is measured by various factors. These factors include the location of the household, the percentage of homes, land, and livestock exposed to floods within that district, and household characteristics that help determine the likelihood of being impacted by floodwater. The satellite data on flood exposure were combined with data from the 2018-2019 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), the source used to calculate official poverty figures. The resulting combined data confirmed that the calamity-affected districts were poorer than the national average, with an average poverty rate of 31.4 percent compared to 21.9 percent nationally.

Merging the dataset allowed the estimations to consider household characteristics when assessing the damages. Households who worked in agriculture would be exposed to losses to their livelihoods since arable land was underwater. Households who lived in mudbrick homes would be more likely to see them washed away by the floods. Households with livestock would risk losing their animals and, therefore, an essential source of income. These risks were factored into a model that 'shocked' affected households, reducing their consumption based on a damage function. We iterated 500 times to reduce the potential bias from assigning damages to households based on probabilities.

Finally, to factor in the effect of disruptions to the supply chain, the model factored in how price increases could have affected food consumption. This was done using the monthly Consumer Price Index reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Losses to household welfare were proportional to the total consumption dedicated to food.

Validating with Government reports

This model was validated against reports from the National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA). Official estimates of the population, buildings, land, and livestock exposed were substituted for the geospatial estimates to rerun the model.

The results were closely aligned (figure 2). Effects on poverty are spatially concentrated in calamity-hit provinces; affected households had overlapping characteristics, making them vulnerable to losses through various channels. The exception is Balochistan, where the government reports a larger share of the population being affected by flooding compared to what is suggested by the geospatial data. An explanation for this could be that satellite images could capture standing water but could not detect quick pluvial cumulation and flash floods that likely caused large damages in this region.

NDMA results were used to construct the official estimates of the impact on poverty, which were between 3.7 and 4 percentage points, or about 9 million people. The depth of poverty (distance to the poverty line) increased as well, with an estimated 7 million additional people living more than 20 percent below the poverty line. These are short-term estimates, and the recovery will depend on the quality of relief and reconstruction efforts. Even in the best case, reversing these adverse shocks to household welfare will take considerable time.

Data-intense assessments will be needed even more in the future

Climate change projections suggest that natural disasters such as floods may become increasingly severe and frequent in the following decades. Projections from the CCDR suggest that due to these cumulative shocks, hard-won gains in terms of poverty reduction may stall or be reversed.

Through this work, it has become clear that it is essential to continue strengthening our capacity to align poverty estimates based on geospatial, administrative and survey data. It also highlights the importance of regularly collected household survey data both before and after the shock. This can help policymakers identify potential risks that households and communities face as the climate evolves. It can also provide insights on how to help them adapt and be more resilient. And when a shock occurs, such analysis can help assess the damage quickly and deploy support more effectively.

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Quantifying the poverty impact of the 2022 floods in Pakistan

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Exacerbated by climate change, the 2022 Monsoon Floods in Pakistan severely affected the lives and livelihoods of millions of people, especially in the Sindh and Balochistan provinces.

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The impact of the 2022 floods on Pakistan’s rural communities and agriculture has been devastating, resulting in the loss of crops, livestock, and essential infrastructure. The country is now facing an unprecedented food security crisis. Nationally, Pakistan’s Sindh Province accounts for 42% of the rice production, 23% of the cotton production, and 31% of the sugarcane production. In our report, we assess potential crop production losses for these crops at the sub-district level using a remote-sensing approach. The analyses are designed to support the Government of Pakistan’s rehabilitation and compensation planning processes.

In the summer (kharif) season, most of the area in Sindh is cultivated under three commercial crops: rice, cotton, and sugarcane. The flood inundation is highest in the rice crop zone, which has resulted in an overall estimated loss of 1.8 million tons of rice, or an 80% loss of the expected total rice production in Sindh.

Sugarcane and cotton zones received relatively lesser inundation during the flood. However, both zones received several exceptionally high daily rainfall spells, which almost completely devastated cotton crops at maturity (with cracked cotton balls).

In economic terms, rice, cotton, and sugarcane together faced a direct loss of USD 1.30 billion (rice: USD 543 million, cotton: USD 485 million, and sugarcane: USD 273 million).

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AUTHORS

Faisal Mueen Qamer, Bashir Ahmad, Sawaid Abbas, Abid Hussain, Aneel Salman, Sher Muhammad, Muhammad Nawaz, Sravan Shrestha, Bilal Iqbal, Sunil Thapa
Summary
Nationally, Pakistan's Sindh Province accounts for 42% of the rice production, 23% of the cotton production, and 31% of the sugarcane production. The 2022 Pakistan floods caused unprecedented damage to agriculture crops, livestock, and infrastructure, including storage facilities with millions of tons of grain, posing the risk of an unprecedented food security crisis in the country.

The floods struck before the harvesting stage of key crops, including cotton, rice, and sugarcane. Using an approach based on satellite imagery, we assessed potential crop production losses for major crops at the subdistrict-level to support the Government of Pakistan's rehabilitation and compensation planning processes in Sindh Province.

According to flood extent mapping using Sentinel-1 satellite images acquired during 22-28 August, flood waters directly inundated about 2.5 million hectares of land (over 18% of Sindh's total area), which resulted in obstructed access and mobility in around three-fourths of the province area. The northwestern districts of Jacobabad, Larkana, Shikarpur, and Kashmore were the worst-affected areas. The satellite data of 3 September shows that the expansion of flood water is continuing through the water coming from the western mountain region of Balochistan and is increasing river discharge at Guddu barrage, resulting in additional flooding in the Indus River.

The total agricultural area of Sindh is about 4.9 million hectares. In summer (kharif) season, most of the area is cultivated under three commercial crops: rice, cotton, and sugarcane. The flood inundation is highest in the rice crop zone, which has resulted in an overall estimated loss of 1.9 million tons of rice, or an 80% loss of the expected total rice production in Sindh.

Sugarcane is predominantly grown in the northeastern districts, where flood inundation remained relatively lower. Damage amounted to 10.5 million tons, or a 61% loss of the expected production of sugarcane. Like the sugarcane zone, the cotton zone also received relatively lesser inundation. However, this zone received several exceptionally high daily rainfall spells, which almost completely devastated cotton crops at maturity (with cracked cotton balls). We expect a loss of about 88% of the total expected cotton production (3.1 million bales) as a result of the flood inundation and exceptionally high rainfall in the cotton-growing areas of Sindh.

In economic terms, these three crops faced a direct loss of USD 1.30 billion (rice: USD 543 million, cotton: USD 485 million, sugarcane: USD 273 million). In addition, three key vegetable crops - tomato, onion, and chilli - face losses totalling USD 374 million in the affected districts, with the highest losses in Thatta, Badin, and Mirpur. As per estimates, floods killed 42,273 livestock, including sheep, goats, camels, cows, buffaloes, and donkeys, causing a direct loss of around USD 13 million to livestock in the province.

The economic losses in agriculture are much beyond the estimated direct losses to crop production and livestock. Direct damages and losses to agriculture tools and machinery, infrastructure in farms and rural areas, and trees are likely to compound the economic losses. The indirect costs involved in draining and land rehabilitation, increased cost of transportation resulting from damaged roads and infrastructure, losses in successive crop cycles due to water logging and delays in sowing, and the government's rehabilitation and compensation support are likely to have deeper and long-term impacts on Pakistan's agriculture.

This rapid assessment does not cover other agricultural losses such as loss of agriculture infrastructure and equipment and disruption in agriculture services.

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The 2022 Pakistan floods: Assessment of crop losses in Sindh Province using satellite data - Pakistan

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Assessment in English on Pakistan about Agriculture, Flash Flood and Flood; published on 9 Sep 2022 by ICIMOD

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Sharon Burke, Liz Saccoccia, Susanne Schmeier, Mohd Faizee, Marlena Chertock

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How Floods in Pakistan Threaten Global Security

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As climate change contributes to more catastrophic water events in Pakistan, there’s a greater security risk for instability and political destabilization.

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Security Implications of Pakistan floods. 

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Security Implications of Pakistan floods. 

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The Security Implications of the Pakistan Floods: A Roundtable Discussion

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Floods and compromised National security. 

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Floods and compromised National security. 

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The ongoing floods in Pakistan devastated communities and the country's infrastructure and economy. The rising frequency of floods, extreme rainfall, and heatwaves has moved climate change from a theoretical discussion point to a palpable burden on the country and its people. From a human perspective, the losses are too grave to quantify. But in political terms, they speak to the missing domain of climate security in the state's national security architecture, which could pose existential challenges for Pakistan.

Between 2010 to 2022, on average, there has been a major flood every other year in Pakistan, causing hundreds of casualties. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected more frequent and severe extreme weather events. This summer, Pakistan experienced fatal heatwaves and unprecedented monsoon downpours that led to floods. With the world's current level of action against global warming, precipitation-related disasters such as floods are 2.7 times more likely, and heat-based events such as heatwaves are 5.6 times more likely. One may infer from the IPCC's projections that the frequency of similar disasters could more than double over the coming decade, with socioeconomic losses piling up to unforeseen levels.

Climate change's impacts are pervasive and multisectoral, meaning that socioeconomic losses lead to an added burden on the state's resources and security. Geopolitical foes no longer remain the only threat but just one of a myriad of factors that may now threaten the state. National security must now be viewed through comprehensive security and climate security frameworks to identify the most pressing and existential threats facing Pakistan.
Framework to Analyze Climate Change Threats
Pakistan's recent National Security Policy (NSP) introduced a "comprehensive national security" framework that embodied the essence of the Comprehensive Security Framework by the Copenhagen School. The National Security Division, which released the policy, is not active in the same way anymore. However, the policy was a valuable step because it broadened Pakistan's security framework by adding societal, political, economic, and environmental sectors as areas of national security-while retaining the existing importance of military and defense. The NSP's broadening of traditional security paradigms makes it evident that extreme climate events-such as floods-can threaten state security and the state itself. There remains a need for continued action to expand on the NSP's positive precedent through more vociferously integrating climate security within Pakistan's existing national security architecture.

The 2022 floods have displaced entire communities, ended livelihoods and income streams, and increased already high internal migration and urbanization levels.

Climate security demonstrates the interplay between climate change and various security sectors. At its core, climate security looks at the threats, risks, and impacts of climate change at multiple levels and across various fields. The common understanding is that climate security addresses the exacerbation of existing fault lines, which then cause security and conflict-related situations. This is known as the threat multiplier effect of climate change. However, the threat multiplier effect is not the only effect of severe climate change-induced events because they pose direct threats to different sectors of security.
A Multisectoral Threat to Comprehensive National Security
Pakistan's ongoing floods are not a normal occurrence. Balochistan, one of the most affected provinces, is known to be arid, deprived of rainfall, and often struck with droughts. This monsoon season, however, Pakistan's Meteorological Department reported that Balochistan experienced 371 percent higher rainfall, causing flash floods and significant humanitarian losses. Current estimates show that over 33 million people have been affected, with over a thousand people paying the ultimate price (so far). While quantifiable economic damages will come with time, the 2010 floods-considered less severe than the 2022 floods-cost roughly $43 billion in economic damages. These economic costs will only rise as the frequency of extreme climate events increases.

While economic losses can be quantified, climate catastrophes also impact societal and political cohesion. The 2022 floods have displaced entire communities, ended livelihoods and income streams, and increased already high internal migration and urbanization levels. Suppose relief efforts are not comprehensive and affected communities feel they have not been provided for after a calamity they did not induce. In that case, their belief in the legitimacy or governing authority of the state could be adversely impacted, creating downstream risks of mass unrest. Individually, peoples' sense of self remains in constant flux every time there is an extreme climate catastrophe. Destroyed inter-generational homes, internal displacement, and camp-like makeshift arrangements will pose significant identity-based challenges and create socioeconomic insecurities among affected communities. Such effects severely damage the societal and political sectors of security, undermining national cohesion.

Furthermore, extreme weather events account for short-term disaster relief and long-term strain on state resources. With greater displacement, poverty and unemployment rates go up as more people lose breadwinners or become climate refugees. Violence against women tends to increase as does the risk of human trafficking. Children drop out of school, particularly young girls, as infrastructure is damaged. People have less access to food and clean water, disease rates go up, and quality of life declines-all of which are multisectoral concerns.

Expending military resources to HADR will naturally take away from responding to other crises and potentially inhibit the military's function of protecting Pakistan's borders.

Another indirect threat is to the military. The military has played an active and comprehensive role in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) for flood-affected areas. The military has lost high-ranking officials, including Commander 12 Corps (a Lieutenant General), while overseeing relief activities in the Lasbela district in Balochistan. Given the increased likelihood estimates from the IPCC reports, Pakistan's HADR requirement will only increase over time. Expending military resources to HADR will naturally take away from responding to other crises and potentially inhibit the military's function of protecting Pakistan's borders.
Moving Forward
Pakistan's comprehensive national security is threatened by the negative impacts of extreme weather events across various sectors. It is not just about economic security versus traditional security anymore. National security can never be one or the other because national power consists of all elements and resources that provide the state with the ability to pursue its interests. Thus, all those elements, resources, and sectors form a part of its security. As a result, to address the entire gambit of multi-sectoral threats, a comprehensive view of national security is required with equal focus on all sectors, while prioritizing climate security due to its severity and immediacy. The NSP began this conversation officially, but its focus on the environmental sector was not adequate given the seriousness of its threat to national security. Primarily, this is due to a narrow focus by policymakers regarding the threats from climate change, such as considering its impact on food, water, and energy security alone without evaluating the threat potential on other sectors. As a result, climate change is not viewed as an existential threat to the state. However, as the threats from climate change induced disasters continue to increase it will be essential to implement concrete policies which are focused on addressing climate change's multisectoral impact.

Moving forward, Pakistan might need to reconsider the way it perceives climate change and climate action on a political level. Developing an interdisciplinary perspective is vital to address the needs of the people directly affected by the climate crisis. Practically, this can translate into holistic stakeholder engagement, functional accountability mechanisms, or even integrating climate action into government operations. Moving beyond planning and strategizing to address climate change's adverse impacts and security threats, driving implementation will be the key to ensuring constructive outcomes. Policy implementation has to be sector-specific since climate action in the societal and political sectors could be different from the requirements for the economic or military sector. The government should follow the NSP model and engage public and private stakeholders in all security sectors to create a sector-specific climate security threat profile for the country. Implementation must then be driven by each sector's own stakeholders while focusing on mitigating climate vulnerability and enhancing climate adaptation.

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Click here to read this article in Urdu.

Image 1: Irin Photos via Flikr

Image 2: Oxfam International via Flikr

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Pakistan Floods & Climate Security: Rethinking Comprehensive National Security - South Asian Voices

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The ongoing floods in Pakistan devasted communities and the country's infrastructure and economy.

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Compromised health and poor sanitation in flood-hit areas. 

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Compromised health and poor sanitation in flood-hit areas. 

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Nine die of gastroenteritis, diarrhoea and malaria in Sindh in the last 24 hours as the crisis overwhelms the country's health system.

A dengue fever patient lies under a mosquito net at Lady Reading Hospital in Peshawar [Fayaz Aziz/Reuters]

Islamabad, Pakistan - Water-borne diseases are a new concern in flood-ravaged Pakistan, with the authorities reporting at least nine such deaths in the last 24 hours, according to government data.

All the deaths caused by diarrhoea, malaria and gastroenteritis were reported in the southeastern Sindh province where more than 300 people have died of flood-related ailments since July.

Sindh officials said more than 500,000 people are still displaced by the calamity and living in makeshift camps across the province.

Meanwhile, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) on Tuesday said the death toll in the catastrophic floods has risen to 1,559.

Pakistan was battered by record rains and melting glaciers beginning in the middle of June. The floods at one point submerged one-third of the nation of 220 million people, destroying more than a million homes and dozens of roads, railways and bridges.

The government, already facing an economic crisis, estimates the total financial losses due to the floods at $30bn and has appealed to the global community for help.

Officials in Sindh, home to 48 million people, said more than 137,000 cases of diarrhoea, over 10,000 cases of dysentery and at least 4,000 confirmed cases of malaria were reported in the province this month, adding that they have set up 450 medical camps to tackle the health crisis.

"The biggest challenge we are facing is because of malaria and gastroenteritis. We don't have enough protective nets or medical kits to detect malaria. Relief organisations and the government are regularly supplying us with required material but the magnitude of the problem is just so huge," Amjad Mastoi, a health official in Sindh's Dadu district told Al Jazeera.

Shahnawaz Solangi, a 53-year-old teacher in Sindh's Naushero Feroz district, said his family was not receiving much help from the government.

"Two of my children, 12 and 18 years old, have malaria for the last two weeks. We have run out of tablets. The fever breaks at times but returns in the evening," he told Al Jazeera over the telephone.

Solangi said his family of 12 members is living in a makeshift house they built on higher ground after their village was swept away a month ago. "We don't have any family in other cities so we along with few others from our village decided to stay back," he said.

Last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned of a looming health disaster in Pakistan.

"I am deeply concerned about the potential for a second disaster in Pakistan: a wave of disease and death following this catastrophe, linked to climate change, that has severely impacted vital health systems leaving millions vulnerable," he said in a statement.

The WHO chief said pregnant women were at risk in the affected areas. "All this means more unsafe births, more untreated diabetes or heart disease, and more children missing vaccination, to name but a few of the impacts on health," he said.

The United Nations Population Fund in August cautioned that more than 650,000 pregnant women in flood-affected areas require urgent maternal health services, with at least 73,000 women expected to give birth in September.

Dr Khalid Memon, a health official in Sindh, told Al Jazeera they are compiling data on pregnant women taking refuge in makeshift camps.

"Our district health officers are deployed across all the affected areas and so far we have registered at least 9,500 pregnant women," he said, adding that expecting mothers were being given food supplements and anti-tetanus vaccines.

Sindh's health minister Dr Azra Fazal Pechuho said many villages remain inaccessible and a true picture of the spread of disease and displacement of people will only emerge once the waters recede.

"Floods have drowned most roads and highways ... Boats are being deployed as not just means to rescue people but also as mobile health camps," she told Al Jazeera.

"We are also asking medical universities to send their final-year students for assisting in flood relief efforts."

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People dying of water-borne diseases in flood-hit Pakistan

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Nine die of gastroenteritis, diarrhoea and malaria in Sindh in the last 24 hours as the crisis overwhelms health system.

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Waterborne diseases faced by flooded areas of Pakistan. 

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Waterborne diseases faced by flooded areas of Pakistan. 

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Water-borne diseases and food insecurity threaten Pakistan as Red Cross ramps up efforts | IFRC

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Islamabad / Kuala Lumpur, 7 October 2022 - As widespread flash floods in Pakistan continue to trigger waves of displacement, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) and Pakistan Red Crescent are scaling up their humanitarian assistance.

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Jeopardized health of affected communities. 

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Jeopardized health of affected communities. 

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1. 1Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, UK

2. 2Faculty of Public Health, Special Interest Group: Disasters and Humanitarian Response

3. 3Faculty of Public Health, Special Interest Group: Pakistan

4. 4UK Health Security Agency, International Health Regulations (IHR) Strengthening Project, Pakistan

5. 5Midlands Partnership University NHS Foundation Trust, St Georges Hospital, Stafford, UK

A year after the floods that devastated Pakistan, action must be taken to prepare for and mitigate the health and environmental damage caused by climate change, write Mohammad Rizwan Ali and colleagues

People in Pakistan continue to suffer one year after the disastrous flooding of July 2022. Monsoon rains unleashed significant floods that wreaked havoc on the lives of 33 million people-more than one sixth of Pakistan's population-and over 1000 lives were lost. 1 The economic impact was estimated at $30bn, requiring $16bn for reconstruction alone. 2 These challenges are compounded by Pakistan's severe economic downturn, characterised by high inflation, limited mechanisms to mitigate the decline in citizens' purchasing power, and low economic resilience. 3 4 Climate related flooding has transformed land once arable for rice and wheat cultivation into floodplains, depriving many individuals of their livelihoods and exacerbating food scarcity.

Challenges in accessing clean water and food add to significant health concerns. The situation is dire for the millions of people who lack access to safe and clean water. 5 This is exacerbated by summer temperatures of up to 51°C, 6 some of the highest globally. 7 Running water is scarce. Groundwater usually extracted through tube wells is now inaccessible because of flooding, and available water is at risk of contamination. Recent estimates have shown that 10.5 million people, particularly children, are facing food insecurity. 8 The prevalence of malnutrition has necessitated immediate public health interventions and targeted education on breastfeeding and infant feeding, 9 given that 44% of children in the country have stunted growth attributed to malnutrition. 10

Comprehending the health emergency in Pakistan after the flooding required rapid implementation of robust data collection methods to assess the health situation. Efforts were made to quantify the extent of ill health in flooded areas in real time. This allowed health professions to identify outbreaks of acute diarrheal and respiratory illness, skin diseases, and malaria across different regions of the country. 11

Varying healthcare provision across regions has led to significant disparities in the incidence and prevalence of communicable diseases such as cholera and malaria, which persist a year after the floods. Such discrepancies have disproportionately affected the Sindh region, which has inadequate healthcare infrastructure, primarily because of economic deprivation. Despite the use of data systems for targeting resources, the failing health infrastructure, weak coordination mechanism, and lack of funding severely hindered an effective response to the floods.

Numerous aid agencies attempted to organise an international response shortly after the floods. But lack of coordination between them and the state sectors in Pakistan meant this was suboptimal. The probability of future serious flooding in Pakistan is high-up to 72% in 2023 12-and recent monsoons have caused additional loss of life. 13 Funding for healthcare is insufficient. 8 Inadequate healthcare provision, particularly in rural areas and those with low incomes, exacerbates the effects of natural disasters in Pakistan. Identifying those at highest risk and increasing the resilience of local health systems are vital steps. This includes determining regions acutely at risk for further flooding by using climate disaster modelling. 14 Mitigation strategies must prioritise upstream prevention, implement effective interventions, identify healthcare provisions, and ensure the rapid delivery of aid in disasters. A more coordinated and well funded response is urgently needed to recover after the 2022 floodings and prepare for future incidents. This means establishing a resilient healthcare infrastructure that can adapt to climate change, and includes local laboratories, primary care facilities, and transportation networks.

Pakistan is among the most water stressed countries in the world, but opportunities exist to stabilise water levels in the long term. Careful planning and climate resilient agriculture practices will help Pakistan adapt to the changing climate. These practices include educating farmers in water-stressed areas to use new technologies and acquire specialised training in cultivating crops 15 16 such as rice, wheat, and maize. 17 18 This should be combined with sustainable groundwater management, using floodings to replenish low groundwater levels 15 Insights from other countries that have successfully implemented interventions will be valuable, particularly as monsoon seasons intensify. Examples include the Netherlands, which has created more capacity for rivers to accommodate floodwaters, 19 Japan, where underground tunnels and reservoirs have been constructed, 20 or the US, where "at risk" land has been purchased by the government and converted into natural floodplain areas. 21

The need to strengthen healthcare and infrastructure in Pakistan is urgent, as is an adequate response to future crises and mitigation of the worst effects of climate disasters. In 2022, some rapid and successful efforts were made to quantify health issues in flood-affected regions. But the state of ill health in Pakistan has worsened because of climate change, 10 driven by lack of trauma care resources 22 and inadequate healthcare provision, particularly for children. 23 Enhanced stakeholder coordination between the Pakistan government, aid agencies, and local and national healthcare providers and increased funding are essential for providing adequate healthcare and protecting vulnerable populations from crises driven by climate change. Concerns remain about future climate driven events, especially among those who have already experienced their consequences. With a high probability of recurrence, global communities must learn from these events and take proactive measures.

Footnotes

Competing interest statement: All authors declare no support from any organisation for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years.

Provenance and peer review: not commissioned; not externally peer reviewed.

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One year on-the persistent plight of the 2022 floods on health in Pakistan

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A year after the floods that devastated Pakistan, action must be taken to prepare for and mitigate the health and environmental damage caused by climate change, write Mohammad Rizwan Ali and colleagues People in Pakistan continue to suffer one year after the disastrous flooding of July 2022.

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Annual Report | Islamic Relief Worldwide 

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Annual Report | Islamic Relief Worldwide 

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Poverty and financial catastrophe in flood-ravaged Sindh and Baluchistan.

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Poverty and financial catastrophe in flood-ravaged Sindh and Baluchistan.

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A year on, the devastating long-term effects of Pakistan’s floods are revealed

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Country’s health and economy ruined as Islamic charity says rich nations must compensate those suffering worst of climate crisis

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Affected people of Sindh and Baluchistan living in flood relief camps.

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Affected people of Sindh and Baluchistan living in flood relief camps.

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Sea-like flood waters ravage Pakistan; affecting millions of people | IFRC

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Note: Since publishing this press release on 27 August, the IFRC has launched an emergency appeal for the Pakistan monsoon floods crisis. Find out more here.

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Worth 30 billion dollars loss of property, agricultural land and infrastructure. 

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Worth 30 billion dollars loss of property, agricultural land and infrastructure. 

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Post-Disaster Needs Assessment calls for urgent support to implement a Recovery and Reconstruction that 'Builds Back Better'

ISLAMABAD, October 28, 2022- A damage, loss, and needs assessment following the unprecedented floods in Pakistan calls for ' building back better', based on the principles of the poor first, transparency, inclusion, and climate resilience. The assessment estimates total damages to exceed USD 14.9 billion, and total economic losses to reach about USD 15.2 billion. Estimated needs for rehabilitation and reconstruction in a resilient way are at least USD 16.3 billion, not including much needed new investments beyond the affected assets, to support Pakistan's adaptation to climate change and overall resilience of the country to future climate shocks.

Housing; Agriculture and Livestock; and Transport and Communications sectors suffered the most significant damage, atUSD 5.6 billion, USD 3.7 billion, and USD 3.3 billion, respectively. Sindh is the worst affected province with close to 70 percent of total damages and losses, followed by Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Punjab.

The Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives led the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA), which was conducted jointly with the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the European Union (EU), the United Nations agencies with technical facilitation by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the World Bank. The PDNA, in addition to estimating damages, economic losses and recovery and reconstruction needs, also assesses broader macro-economic and human impacts and recommends principles along which to develop a comprehensive recovery and reconstruction framework.

The floods affected 33 million people and more than 1730 lost their lives. They are particularly impacting the poorest and most vulnerable districts. The situation is still evolving, with flood waters stagnant in many areas, causing water-borne and vector-borne diseases to spread, and more than 8 million displaced people now facing a health crisis. The crisis thus risks having profound and lasting impacts on lives and livelihoods. Loss of household incomes, assets, rising food prices, and disease outbreaks are impacting the most vulnerable groups. Women have suffered notable losses of their livelihoods, particularly those associated with agriculture and livestock.

The PDNA Human Impact Assessment highlights that the national poverty rate may increase by 3.7 to 4.0 percentage points, potentially pushing between 8.4 and 9.1 million more people below the poverty line.

Multidimensional poverty can potentially increase by 5.9 percentage points, implying that an additional 1.9 million households are at risk of being pushed into non-monetary poverty.

Compounding the existing economic difficulties facing the country, the 2022 floods are expected to have a significant adverse impact on output, which will vary substantially by region and sector. Loss in gross domestic product (GDP) as a direct impact of the floods is projected to be around 2.2 percent of FY22 GDP. The agriculture sector is projected to contract the most, at 0.9 percent of GDP. The damage and losses in agriculture will have spillover effects on the industry, external trade and services sectors.

The Government is providing immediate relief to the impacted communities and supporting the early recovery, while aiming to ensure macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability. Moving forward, as recovery and reconstruction spending rises, the loss in output could be mitigated. Yet, significant international support will be needed to complement Pakistan's own commitment to increase domestic revenue mobilization and save scarce public resources, and to reduce the risk of exacerbating macroeconomic imbalances.

Although the early loss and damage estimates may increase as the situation is continuously evolving on the ground, the PDNA lays the groundwork for an agenda for recovery and reconstruction that is designed to build back a better future for the most affected people in Pakistan. While the recovery will require massive efforts for the rehabilitation and reconstruction of damaged infrastructure, buildings and livelihoods, it will also be an opportunity to strengthen institutions and governance structures.

The report puts forth recommendations for developing a comprehensive recovery framework. While the primary focus will be on the affected areas, such framework presents an opportunity to embed systemic resilience to natural hazards and climate change in Pakistan's overall development planning. This tragic disaster can be a turning point, where climate resilience and adaptation, increased domestic revenue mobilization and better public spending, and public policies and investments better targeted to the most vulnerable populations; all figure at the core of policy making going forward.

In the short term, targeted mechanisms such as social assistance and emergency cash transfers, provision of emergency health services, and programs to restore shelter and restart local economic activities, particularly in agriculture, should be prioritized. Reconstruction and rehabilitation should rest on key principles of: participatory, transparent, inclusive, and green recovery for long-term resilience-"building back better "; pro-poor, pro-vulnerable, and gender sensitive, targeting the most affected; strong coordination of government tiers and implementation by the lowest appropriate level; synergies between humanitarian effort and recovery; and a sustainable financing plan.

Given Pakistan's limited fiscal resources, significant international support and private investment will be essential for a comprehensive and resilient recovery. The Pakistani authorities are committed to accelerate reforms to generate additional domestic fiscal resources and improve efficiency and targeting of public spending. Beyond the immediate needs of floods reconstruction, these reforms, while protecting the most vulnerable, will be important to generate fiscal space to invest more broadly into more climate-resilient infrastructure and adaptation to climate change, as well as to build buffers to face future shocks, while addressing macroeconomic imbalances. This commitment of the Government will also be key to mobilize further international support as well as to unlock private sector sources of financing-both of which will be absolutely critical to face the current climate change-induced shock.

The ADB, the EU, the UNDP and the World Bank are fully committed to working with the Government and people of Pakistan during the ensuing recovery phase, and to increase the country's climate resilience.

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Pakistan: Flood Damages and Economic Losses Over USD 30 billion and Reconstruction Needs Over USD 16 billion - New Assessment

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Post-Disaster Needs Assessment calls for urgent support to implement a Recovery and Reconstruction that 'Builds Back Better'

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A catastrophic flood for Sindh destroying millions of houses. 

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A catastrophic flood for Sindh destroying millions of houses. 

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Sindh, which is one of largest and densely populated provinces of Pakistan, was hit the hardest by flooding this year. This makes a lot of sense when we look at the topography of the region. Sindh is a low-lying area and the only ‘outlet’ for water coming from the upper parts of almost the entire country.

During the monsoon season, which typically lasts from July to September, the Arabian Sea warms up and causes heavy rainfall all over Pakistan. This rainfall is then channelled into the rivers and low-lying areas as floodwater. The Indus River and its tributaries in Sindh are very active during the monsoon season and, therefore, not only carry this excess water downstream, but also cause a lot of flooding in the coastal areas and on both sides of the river.
Floods in Sindh are happening more frequently and with greater intensity than before. There are multiple reasons behind this phenomenon, for instance, climate change. There has been an increase in extreme and erratic weather patterns; and it has also been recorded that the frequency of extreme precipitation events has increased in the last few decades. Extreme precipitation events occur when the amount of rain in one day exceeds the expected amount.

In Sindh, the number of extreme precipitation events are increasing every year. The second reason for increased flooding in Sindh is the increased flow of water into the province due to melting of glaciers and the flow of water into Sindh from Afghanistan, China, India and Tajikistan has also increased.

The other reasons include low and extreme land elevation, the high rate of urbanisation, poor water management practices, low-lying land, lack of river flow management, none or few flood barriers and dams, and weak governance. These are all the main reasons that the southern province of the country has been facing devastation frequently for a few years.

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Boats and boating--Equipment and supplies

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The beginning of the deadliest floods, June 14, 2022. 

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The beginning of the deadliest floods, June 14, 2022. 

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The minister of climate change of Pakistan, Sherry Rehman, said that the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan had received more rainfall than the August average, with 784% and 500% more, respectively. Higher than-average monsoon rains were also recorded in India and Bangladesh. The Indian Ocean is one of the fastest warming oceans in the world, warming by an average of 1 °C (1.8 °F) (while worldwide temperatures are now at 1.2 °C (2.2 °F) above pre-industrial temperatures, oceans in general are at around 0.7 °C (1.3 °F)). The rise in sea surface temperatures is believed to increase monsoon rainfall. In addition, southern Pakistan experienced back-to-back heat waves in May and June, which were record-setting and themselves made more likely by climate change. Climate change is the most important cause of floods 2022.