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Coronavirus: Inside Brazil's slums where COVID-19 is at risk of spreading like wildfire | World News | Sky News

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Coronavirus: Inside Brazil’s slums where COVID-19 is at risk of spreading like wildfire

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Sky News’ Stuart Ramsay visits Sao Paulo’s favelas where people are trying to teach each other how to survive.

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We found 2˚C of warming will push most tropical rainforests above their safe 'heat threshold'

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As they photosynthesise and grow, tropical forests remove enormous amounts of carbon from the atmosphere, reducing global warming. However, forests are also themselves affected by this warming. If it gets too hot or too dry, trees will grow less and may start to die faster, decomposing and releasing that carbon back into the atmosphere.

This is why scientists like us are concerned that climate change will mean death outweighs growth, and tropical forests will eventually switch to releasing more carbon into the atmosphere than they take out. Our new research, published in the journal Science, shows that tropical forests can resist small increases in temperature - but only up to a point.

Such forests are found right across the tropics and although they're generally hot and wet, this simplification hides a lot of variation in climate. Some forests at the southern edge of the Amazon reach 35˚C in the hottest months of the year, while others towards the foothills of the Andes reach no more than 26˚C. The jungles of the western Amazon and Borneo are wet all year round, while elsewhere in Amazonia and in Africa there are "rainforests" that have virtually no rainfall in the driest months. We used this variation to understand how climate affects the amount of carbon tropical forests store, and to predict how this might change in the future.

Why did we look at variation between locations to predict changes over time? Because, since individual trees live for a long time, even decades of monitoring cannot tell us exactly how a forest will respond to climate change in the long term. For example, Amazonian forests that are drying fastest are slowly shifting towards more drought-adapted tree species, but this is only evident if we look at the youngest trees.

Aida Cuni Sanchez, Author provided

Looking at variations between different tropical forests gives us a unique perspective on how tropical forests might respond to future climatic conditions, as we can observe how forests grow in a particular climate after having had time to adapt. For example, we can use the difference in the amount of carbon stored by forests growing at 30˚C and 32˚C as a guide for how the former might respond over the long-term to a 2˚C increase in temperature.

So, we joined efforts with 223 other researchers. The international team measured more than half a million trees in 813 forests across the tropics. In each forest patch we recorded tree diameter, species and height. And a few years later we went back to measure how much each tree had grown, if some had died, or if new ones had established. Each tree had a numerical tag, which allowed us to track them over their lives. Overall we identified about 10,000 tree species and made two million measurements of diameter, across 24 tropical countries.

Sullivan et al / Science

We found that tropical forests can tolerate small changes in temperatures, but only up to a point. Once annual mean daytime temperatures in the warmest part of the year hit 32˚C or more, these forests release four times as much carbon to the atmosphere per degree increase in temperature as they would below the threshold. This is mostly because hotter temperatures reduce tree growth, but it's also down to heat combined with drought meaning trees are more likely to die and decompose, which releases carbon back into the atmosphere.

Adaptation is possible - if we act now

Our results indicate that we have an opportunity to ensure forests can adapt to climate change, but we need to act now. Firstly, we need to protect and connect the forests that remain, so that tree species are able to move as the climate warms.

But trees go from place to place very slowly: they can only "move" when animals or the wind carry their seeds somewhere else where climatic conditions are suitable. The more fragmented the forests, the less likely seeds can reach certain patches. Also, smaller patches are more affected by "edge effects" such as increased light, drier air and fire risks, creating challenging conditions for seeds to germinate and grow. Therefore, keeping forests connected is of crucial importance.

Aida Cuni Sanchez, Author provided

Secondly, we need to limit emissions. Even limiting global temperatures to 2°C above pre-industrial levels - already a best case scenario - will push nearly three-quarters of tropical forests above the 32°C heat threshold we identify. As each degree increase above the heat threshold releases 100 billion tonnes of CO₂ from tropical forests to the atmosphere, representing over 280 years of annual fossil fuel emissions by a country such as the UK, there is a clear incentive to avoid further warming.

Of course, reducing emissions is challenging. However, right now, humanity has a unique opportunity. During the current pandemic, emissions from transport, among other sectors, have been significantly reduced. So this shows that we humans can do it. We can design a healthier cooler future for all of us: rainforests and humans.

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We found 2˚C of warming will push most tropical rainforests above their safe 'heat threshold'

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As they photosynthesise and grow, tropical forests remove enormous amounts of carbon from the atmosphere, reducing global warming. However, forests are also themselves affected by this warming. If it gets too hot or too dry, trees will grow less and may start to die faster, decomposing and releasing that carbon back into the atmosphere.

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Visualizing the Countries Most Reliant on Tourism - Visual Capitalist

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What Drives Gasoline Prices?
This was originally posted on Elements. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on natural resource megatrends in your email every week.
Across the United States, the cost of gas has been a hot topic of conversation lately, as prices reach record-breaking highs.

The national average now sits at $5.00 per gallon, and by the end of summer, this figure could grow to $6 per gallon, according to estimates by JPMorgan.

But before we can have an understanding of what's happening at the pump, it's important to first know what key factors influence gasoline prices.

This graphic, using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration ( EIA), outlines the main components that influence gasoline prices, providing each factor's proportional impact on price.

The Four Main Factors

According to the EIA, there are four main factors that influence the price of gas:

Crude oil prices (54%)

Refining costs (14%)

Taxes (16%)

Distribution, and marketing costs (16%)

More than half the cost of filling your tank is influenced by the price of crude oil. Meanwhile, the rest of the price at the pump is split fairly equally between refining costs, marketing and distribution, and taxes.

Let's look at each factor in more depth.

Crude Oil Prices

The most influential factor is the cost of crude oil, which is largely dictated by international supply and demand.

Despite being the world's largest oil producer, the U.S. remains a net importer of crude oil, with the majority coming from Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. Because of America's reliance on imports, U.S. gas prices are largely influenced by the global crude oil market.

A number of geopolitical factors can influence the crude oil market, but one of the biggest influences is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia.

Established in 1960, OPEC was created to combat U.S. dominance of the global oil market. OPEC sets production targets for its 13 member countries, and historically, oil prices have been linked to changes in OPEC production. Today, OPEC countries are responsible for about 60% of internationally traded petroleum.

Refining Costs

Oil needs to be refined into gasoline before it can be used by consumers, which is why refining costs are factored into the price of gas.

The U.S. has hundreds of refineries across the country. The country's largest refinery, owned by the Saudi Arabian company ​​Saudi Aramco, processes around 607,000 barrels of oil per day.

The exact cost of refining varies, depending on a number of factors such as the type of crude oil used, the processing technology available at the refinery, and the gasoline requirements in specific parts of the country.

In general, refining capacity in the U.S. has not been keeping up with oil demand. Several refineries shut down throughout the pandemic, but even before COVID-19, refining capacity in the U.S. was lagging behind demand. Incredibly, there haven't been any brand-new refining facilities built in the country since 1977.

Taxes

In the U.S., taxes also play a critical role in determining the price of gas.

Across America, the average gasoline tax is $0.57 per gallon, however, the exact amount fluctuates from state to state. Here's a look at the top five states with the highest gas taxes:
*Note: figures include both state and federal tax
States with high gas taxes usually spend the extra money on improvements to their infrastructure or local transportation. For instance, Illinois doubled its gas taxes in 2019 as part of a $45 billion infrastructure plan.

California, the state with the highest tax on gas, is expecting to see a rate increase this July, which will drive gas prices up by around three cents per gallon.

Distribution and Marketing Costs

Lastly, the costs of distribution and marketing have an impact on the price of gas.

Gasoline is typically shipped from refineries to local terminals via pipelines. From there, the gasoline is processed further to ensure it meets market requirements or local government standards.

Gas stations then distribute the final product to the consumer. The cost of running a gas station varies-some gas stations are owned and operated by brand-name refineries like Chevron, while others are smaller-scale operations owned by independent merchants.

The big-name brands run a lot of advertisements. According to Morning Consult, Chevron, BP PLC, Exxon Mobil Corp., and Royal Dutch Shell PLC aired TV advertisements in the U.S. more than 44,495 times between June 1, 2020, and Aug. 31, 2021.

How Does the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Impact U.S. Gas Prices?

If only a fraction of America's oil comes from Russia, why is the Russia-Ukraine conflict impacting prices in the U.S.?

Because oil is bought and sold on a global commodities market. So, when countries imposed sanctions on Russian oil, that put a squeeze on global supply, which ultimately drove up prices.

This supply shock could keep prices high for a while unless the U.S. falls into a recession, which is a growing possibility based on how recent data is trending.

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Visualizing the Countries Most Reliant on Tourism - Visual Capitalist

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This was originally posted on Elements. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on natural resource megatrends in your email every week. Across the United States, the cost of gas has been a hot topic of conversation lately, as prices reach record-breaking highs.

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Amazon under threat: fires, loggers and now virus - BBC News

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The Amazon rainforest - which plays a vital role in balancing the world's climate and helping fight global warming - is also suffering as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

Deforestation jumped 55% in the first four months of 2020 compared with the same period last year, as people have taken advantage of the crisis to carry out illegal clearances.

Deforestation, illegal mining, land clearances and wildfires were already at an 11-year high and scientists say we're fast approaching a point of no return - after which the Amazon will no longer function as it should.

Here, we look at the pressures pushing the Amazon to the brink and ask what the nine countries that share this unique natural resource are doing to protect it.

Source Reuters

Coronavirus and the forest

The largest and most diverse tropical rainforest in the world is home to 33 million people and thousands of species of plants and animals.

Since coronavirus spread to Brazil, in March, Amazonas has been the state to register Brazil's highest infection rates - it also has one of the most underfunded health systems in the country.

As elsewhere, social distancing and travel restrictions have been imposed to limit the spread of the virus.

But many of the field agents working to protect reserves have pulled out, Jonathan Mazower, of Survival International, says, allowing loggers and miners to target these areas.

In April, as the number of cases rose and states started adopting isolation measures, deforestation actually increased 64% compared with the same month in 2019, according to preliminary satellite data from space research agency INPE.

Last year, an unprecedented number of fires devastated huge swathes of forest in the Amazon. Peak fire season is from July which some experts worry could coincide with the peak of the coronavirus crisis.

The Brazilian authorities are deploying troops in the Amazon region to help protect the rainforest, tackle illegal deforestation and forest fires. But critics say that the government's rhetoric and policies could actually be encouraging loggers and illegal miners.

Even before this year's spike in deforestation, the rate across the nine Amazon countries had continued to rise.

Brazil and Bolivia were among the top five countries for loss of primary forest in 2018 and both saw a dramatic increase in wildfires last year.

But that is not the only problem.

"To only speak of deforestation when we refer to the loss of the Amazon is what I call "the great green lie"," says climate scientist Antonio Donato Nobre.

"The destruction of the Amazon rainforest up till now is much bigger than the almost 20% that they talk of in the media."

To get a more complete sense of the scale of the destruction, Mr Nobre says it is necessary to take into account the figures for degradation.

This happens when a combination of pressures on a stretch of forest - such as fires, logging or unlicensed hunting - make it hard for the ecosystem to function properly.

Even if an area does not lose all its trees and vegetation, degradation strips the rainforest of properties that are vital to the planet.

Scientists say that if we don't reverse current levels of deforestation and degradation, the consequences of climate change could accelerate.

The Amazon in Brazil is on fire - how bad is it?

Forest loss challenges Paris climate ambition

Source Getty

Not all deforestation is the same

The most common way of measuring deforestation is "tree cover loss" - where forest vegetation has been completely erased.

In 2018 alone, the tree cover loss in the Amazon reached four million hectares (40,000 sq km), according to Global Forest Watch.

Almost half of this was primary forest - 1.7 million hectares of forest that was still in its original state and rich in biodiversity. Its destruction was the same as three football pitches of virgin forest being destroyed every minute in 2018.
Skip "football pitches"
A football pitch is frequently used as a reference because, according to Fifa, the maximum size of a pitch is 1.08 hectares. However, some countries use smaller dimensions, which is why deforestation calculations can vary so much.
End of "football pitches"

This may seem insignificant - only 0.32% of the forest in the whole Amazon biome - but it is also a question of quality.

"Each hectare deforested means part of the ecosystem ceases to function and this affects the rest," says Oxford University rainforest expert Erika Berenguer.

In the last 10 years, figures for primary forest loss have remained high or spiked in most of the Amazon nations.

What role do trees play?

Primary forest is home to trees that can be hundreds or even thousands of years old. They perform a powerful role in mitigating the effects of climate change, as they act as an enormous carbon dioxide store.

A small part of the CO2 absorbed by trees during photosynthesis is released into the atmosphere during respiration. The rest is transformed into carbon which the trees use to produce the sugars needed for their metabolism.

The older and larger the tree, the more carbon it stores.

According to Dr Berenguer, a large tree (with at least three metres circumference) can contain between three and four tonnes of carbon. This is the same as about 10 to 12 tonnes of CO2, or what a family car emits over four years.

Many people believe that to make up for what we've lost in the Amazon, we just need to plant trees elsewhere. But that is not the case Erika Berenguer, Oxford University

One of the direct effects of deforestation is that it releases CO2 stored in the forest. Forest fires or the decomposition of felled trees both transform the carbon within the tree back into gas.

For this reason, scientists fear that the Amazon will stop being a carbon store and will instead become a serious emitter of CO2, accelerating the effects of climate change.

A recent study claimed that 20% of the Amazon is already emitting more CO2 that it absorbs.

Deforested parts of Amazon 'emitting more CO2 than they absorb'

Source Getty

The (in)visible destruction of the Amazon

Experts like Antonio Nobre believe that deforestation does not show the full picture of what is being lost and we should also take into account "degradation".

This phenomenon is as much the result of climatic events - such as drought, as human action - such as burning or illegal logging which strip the forest of its vital functions. However, seen from above, it may seem that the forest is still standing.

We should not cut down another single tree in the Amazon region Antonio Nobre, INPE

"Even though not all the vegetation is lost, the soil is drier and more fragile. This changes the microclimate of the forest and makes it easier for fires to spread because the soil heats up faster," explains Alexander Lees, professor of tropical ecology at Manchester Metropolitan University in the UK.

Scientists also warn that degradation is an important factor in releasing stored CO2. A new study by Raisg says 47% of all the emissions in the Amazon are as a result of degradation.

And in seven of the nine Amazon countries, they say, degradation is the main source of their carbon dioxide emissions.

Degradation also makes the forest less efficient. It loses, for example, the ability to generate some of its own rain.

If we take the deforestation and degradation together, more than 50% of the Amazon no longer performs environmental services for the region's climate, says Antonio Nobre.

Mr Nobre says the degraded areas of the Amazon are nearly twice as big as the deforested areas.

A recent report by the Colombian government confirms that between 2012 and 2015, its own Amazon region lost 187,955 hectares of forest to deforestation and 414,605 hectares to degradation - more than double.

So why don't they talk about degradation when measuring forest loss in the Amazon?

"It is a difficult phenomenon to measure because although you can see degradation on satellite images, you need to have data from the ground to understand the real picture - whether that area is more or less degraded or is recovering," says Alexander Lees.

Among the Amazon countries, only Brazil regularly publishes annual degradation figures. However, scientists from across the region are trying to produce the relevant data to form a wider picture of the current state of the forest.

Source Alexander Lees/RAS

What happens if we lose the forest?

If deforestation and degradation continue at current levels, the Amazon could stop working as a tropical ecosystem, even if some of it is still standing.
Annual loss of primary forest in the Amazon between 2002 and 2018
We could be dangerously close to what scientists call "the tipping point" - when the nature of the Amazon will completely change.

This will happen when total deforestation reaches between 20% and 25% - and that could happen in the next 20 or 30 years.

It would cause the length of the dry season and temperatures in the forest to increase. Trees would start to die and the tropical rainforest could become more like a dry savannah.

The projection, however, still does not take into account degradation because of the difficulty of measuring it across Panamazonas - the joint Amazon biome across the different national borders.

This means it could be even closer than they think. But what could happen after the tipping point?

Less rain

Source Marizilda Cruppe/Red Amazonía Sustentable

Scientists can't say exactly what a sudden transformation of the Amazon rainforest would mean.

But Brazilian climatologist Carlos Nobre, says temperatures in the region could increase by 1.5-3C in the areas which become degraded savannahs. And that is without taking into account possible increases already caused by global warming.

This could have a catastrophic impact on the local economy. Less rain and higher temperatures mean less water for animals or growing crops like soya.

More disease

Source Getty

Some studies link deforestation to an increase in illnesses transmitted by mosquitoes, such as malaria and leishmaniasis.

The process of degradation could make the insects look for other sources of food and get closer to urban settlements.

And temperature increases could lead to more heat-related cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, says Beatriz Oliveira, from Brazil's Climate Change Investigations Network (Red-Clima).

"Even if the conditions we have at the moment stay the same, temperatures in the Amazon region could increase by 8C, taking into account deforestation and global warming by 2070.

"Replacing the rainforest with another ecosystem, this increase could be even greater or could happen sooner."

Can we prevent tipping point?

According to Carlos Nobre, there is a way.

"First, we should adopt a zero deforestation policy in Panamazonas, immediately, together with a reforestation programme in the south, south-east and east of the Amazon, which are the most vulnerable areas."

"If we could restore 60,000 or 70,000 sq km in this large area, where the dry season is already much longer, we could help the forest get back to working better and it would be more resilient."

That doesn't seem an easy task in the near future.

Source Getty

What are the threats in the Amazon's nine countries?

Deforestation and its causes are a major source of friction between the governments of the nine Amazon nations, environmentalists, companies and indigenous groups: the desire for economic development clashes, in the main, with the preservation of the Amazon and its native peoples.
Skip "native peoples"
More than 33 million people live in the Amazon - about 8% of the population of South America - in towns, cities, riverside communities and indigenous villages. There are at least 100 tribes who have had little or no contact with outsiders.
End of "native peoples"
It affects the ecosystem of the whole region, including those who are not part of the Amazon itself, and beyond.

Antonio Nobre says: "The ring made by central-southern Brazil and the River Plate basin would be a desert if it wasn't for the Amazon.

"People have no idea what it would mean to lose this magnificent hydrological system."

So what is driving deforestation in each of the Amazon nations, how much primary forest have they lost and what are their governments doing?

Source reuters

The fires which started in Bolivia in May 2019 destroyed almost two million hectares of forest, according to the Friends of Nature monitoring NGO.

Half of that was in protected areas, known for their wide biodiversity.

Environmentalists say Evo Morales' government has promoted deforestation with policies of selling land in the Amazon region to businessmen and distributing it to farmers.
Loss of primary forest in Bolivia, 2002-18
The expansion of the farming frontier is mainly to encourage soya planting and cattle raising, in the hope of building exports for the Chinese market. In August 2019, Mr Morales celebrated the first beef exports to China from Santa Cruz.

The same region was responsible for nearly half of Bolivia's soya production in 2018 and was most affected by the fires last year.

In response to criticism during the fires crisis, Morales halted land sales in Santa Cruz for what he called "an ecological pause".

We asked the Bolivian environment ministry about its strategy to reduce deforestation, but have had no response.

Brazil received international acclaim for the drop off in deforestation between 2004 and 2014 - an accumulated fall of 80% in almost 10 years.

But the loss of forest has once again started to rise.
Loss of primary forest in Brazil, 2002-18
In November 2019, the government published data confirming expert predictions: that between the middle of 2018 and the middle of 2019, deforestation in the Amazon had increased 30% in relation to the previous year.

They had cleared around 980,000 hectares (9,800 sq km), the largest area of forest cut down since 2008.

And these figures don't take into account August 2019, when Amazon fires were at their worst.

President Jair Bolsonaro's government claimed the fires were down to the dry season. But investigations by IPAM and the Federal University of Acre found otherwise.

According to their report, the Amazon fires are directly related to deforestation.

"After felling the trees, they leave it to dry for a few months then set fire to it to clear the vegetation. The land is then used to plant grass and create pastures," says Erika Berenguer.

Source Reuters

According to the FAO, 80% of tree loss in Brazil is directly or indirectly related to cattle farming. Brazil is the largest beef exporter in the world. It makes up 7% of the country's GDP and 4.6% of exports.

Today, around 40% of the country's cattle is raised in Amazon states. But that is only part of the story.

Around 60 million hectares of the Brazilian Amazon are considered public areas, or rather they have no legal purpose defined by the government.

They are not conservation areas, nor indigenous territories, for example. People clear this land, cut the trees down and put cattle on them, it's the cheapest way to occupy them, says Stabile.

A patch of land without trees is worth more on the market.

The primary use of deforested land in Brazil is cattle. But the aim is not necessarily to earn money from meat production but from the sale of land Marcelo Stabile, of IPAM, the Amazon Environmental Research Institute

The next step in the chain is to illegally obtain a title deed for the land and sell it, says Mr Stabile. They then find another patch of forest and start again. The land is often sold to large-scale farmers and it is hard to tell which was cleared legally and what wasn't.

The same happens in Colombia, Peru and Ecuador.

According to Mr Stabile and other investigators, Brazil could double or triple its number of cattle without felling another hectare of the Amazon rainforest.

"What's happening is land speculation," he says. "If the government defined these public areas, it would cease to be lucrative."

Environmentalists and investigators say statements and policies from Bolsonaro's government are encouraging clearances and the persecution of indigenous people.

Although the government denies this, the president has said he wants to end the "industry of environmental taxes" and believes the country has too many conservation areas. The government also wants to allow mining on land belonging to indigenous tribes.

Between January and September 2019, attacks and invasions of indigenous people's land increased 40% on the previous year. The finger of blame is pointed at those involved in land clearance, logging and mining.

However, as the coronavirus crisis took hold in May, around 4,000 troops were mobilised in the Amazon against illegal logging and other activities until June, although that could be extended into the dry season to help with fire prevention.

Environment Minister Ricardo Salles said the coronavirus outbreak had "aggravated" the situation this year.

President Bolsonaro, however, has spoken against punitive measures taken against loggers and miners - such as the destruction of their equipment when it can't be taken out of the forest. Critics say that sends a message that the government is on their side.

In 2017, the level of deforestation in Colombia was one of the biggest in the Amazon region and the highest in the country's history. More than 140,000 hectares of forest was cleared, twice the previous year's total.

This peak was a result of the peace accord with Farc rebels in 2016, which left a power vacuum in forested areas.
Loss of primary forest in Colombia, 2002-18
Community leaders said Farc had acted as a type of environmental police, controlling when farmers were allowed to clear the forest or burn for agriculture or cattle farming.

"Government officials wouldn't come near the Amazon region because of Farc, who, for their own protection, had an interest in keeping the trees standing. So the rebels could establish strict rules," said Rodrigo Botero, director of Foundation for Conservation and Sustainable Development.

However, Colombia is now facing a race to clear land in the Amazon led by large-scale farmers, local authorities, drug dealers and other paramilitary groups such as the ELN, says Botero.

There is a market for land and the government can't stop it, he says.

Source Alamy

The Colombian government formed a National Council for the Fight against Deforestation in an attempt to tackle the issue.

The group works to identify pockets of deforestation, the causes and what action is needed, according to the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development.

Laws passed in 2018 made the protection of water, biodiversity and the environment priority issues in matters of national security. The government can now intervene to protect areas in the Amazon national park from illegal activities.

They are also carrying out military operations against people clearing land and launching programmes which promote financial incentives for conservation.

But in 2018, deforestation rates only fell by 4%. By 2018, Colombian had lost around 11.7% of its original forest - 14% of which was in the last eight years.

In the north of Ecuador, palm oil production is the main threat to the Amazon, experts say.

The oil is used worldwide in the industrialised production of food such as chocolate, cosmetics, cleaning products and fuels.

Ecuador is the second biggest producer of palm oil in Latin America, and the sixth worldwide.

The expansion of palm oil and cocoa plantations in the last 10 years is the main driver of deforestation, according to Global Forest Watch and Maap.
Loss of primary forest in Ecuador, 2002-18
This is particularly worrying because despite only covering about 2% of the Amazon biome, Ecuador has one of the most diverse parts of the forest. In just one hectare of the Yasuní park area, you'll find 670 tree species - more than in the whole of North America.

Furthermore, according to a study by the country's National Institute of Biodiversity, between 40% and 60% of the species of trees in Ecuador's Amazon region are still unknown.

Source Getty

Mining boom

Mining projects and oil exploration in the Amazon have also made headline news in Ecuador.

One such project is Mirador, an open mine for copper, gold and silver which will be built in two Amazon provinces. It is the biggest project of its type in Ecuador - but not the only one.

The government says industrial mining in the region, carried out by a Chinese company, will be responsible and the income generated will allow investment in infrastructure locally.

However, investigators believe the activity could bring with it serious problems to the Amazon.

"As well as deforestation, we don't know exactly where they are going to put the dams nor how they are going to monitor them," said Carmen Josse, scientific director of the EcoScience Foundation.

They are rugged areas with a lot of biodiversity. We don't want an accident like Brumadinho, in Brazil Carmen Josse, EcoScience Foundation

We asked Ecuador's government about their strategy to prevent mining contributing to deforestation - but they have not responded.

French Guiana soldiers search for illegal miners

Around 75% of it is virgin forest, which has had little or no intervention by humans, according to Global Forest Watch in 2016.

Among the Amazon territories it has the largest percentage of forest in protected areas - almost 50% - and the lowest levels of deforestation.

However, representatives of native people and environmentalists are worried by the advance of legal and illegal mining, encroaching on the protected zones.
Loss of primary forest in French Guiana, 2002-18
At the start of 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron suspended a gold mining megaproject within the Guianan Amazon National Park, which he had initially approved at the start of his tenure. The suspension was the result of national and international campaigns.

Despite this, illegal mining is the main threat to the park. Security forces have detected an increase in the number of illegal mines in the area since 2017.

With a population of less than 300,000 people, French Guiana has between 8,000 and 10,000 illegal miners. The rising price of gold since the 2008 financial crisis has sparked a rush to find the metal in the forests of the world.

Source Getty

"Most of the time, they're poor kids from Brazil looking for easy money. They live in the forest for months and months," explained Captain Vianney, who is leading the Foreign Legion's operations against gold mining.

We asked the ministry of French overseas territories about the government's strategy to combat deforestation but they have not replied.

Ninety five per cent of Guyana is covered by the Amazon.

The country proposes two ways of treating the forest which, for many, seem irreconcilable. On the one hand, it is looking for a way of exploiting it economically while at the same time selling itself as a Green State that protects the Amazon.

The annual rate of deforestation in Guyana is the lowest in the region - 0.051% in 2018, according to government figures.
Loss of primary forest in Guyana, 2002-18
Part of its success is due to strategies such as the creation of a forest management commission, which decides which trees can or cannot be cut down.

However, legal felling controlled by the government is still considered a factor that enables deforestation. According to environmentalists, licences for large international logging companies create access to virgin forest which illegal miners take advantage of.

Guyana's Forestry Commission says it has not opened any new areas of the forest for legal felling since 2015.

In fact, some areas were taken back off the companies who had licences to exploit them and they have become conservation areas, the government said.

Illegal mining - mainly gold - is to blame for 85% of the forest loss, according to the Forestry Commission. Gold is the country's main export.

Source Alamy

The government says it has a "Green State development strategy" for the country which includes more investment in ecotourism and renewable energy, stricter limits on CO2 emissions and increasing forest conservation.

All this is funded by international agreements to preserve the Amazon and the discovery of huge oil reserves at sea.

Small scale agriculture has traditionally been the main cause of deforestation in Peru. Recently, however, cultivation of palm oil, cocoa and coca are catching up.

A 2018 study found that despite making up only 4% of crops in the Amazon, palm oil was responsible for 11% of deforestation between 2007 and 2013. The oil is used worldwide to produce food, cosmetics and fuel.

After some palm oil producers were fined for deforestation, they started to buy land from small farmers who had already cleared the forest illegally, says Sandra Rios, geographical engineer with the Instituto de Bien Comun (IBC Peru).

The State is slow in creating ways of monitoring, controlling and punishing deforestation by these and other means Sandra Ríos, IBC Peru

We have asked Peru's environment minister about their strategy to prevent deforestation - but they have not responded.

Illegal gold mining poses an increasing risk to the Peruvian Amazon. Peru is the biggest exporter of gold in Latin America, and the sixth worldwide. However, experts say up to 25% of its annual production comes from illegal mining.

Since 2006, Peru has been experiencing a new gold rush in the Tambopata Nature Reserve, one of the most biodiverse in the region, driven by rising gold prices and the construction of the Brazil-Peru Transoceanic Highway.
Loss of primary forest in Peru, 2002-18
The road, from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic, not only makes travelling easier, it also opens up previously inaccessible areas of the forest. The group of miners in the area, known as the La Pampa, has grown to have more than 5,000 members.

The miners strip the vegetation from the Amazon soil to look for gold. They use mercury to separate the precious metal from others, poisoning the waters and local animals in the process.

In 2017, the loss of forest as a result of mining reached its highest level since 1985, according to the Center for Amazonian Scientific Innovation (Cincia).

Last March, the government declared a state of emergency for 60 days to carry out military operations against miners in la Pampa.

With almost 94% of its territory within the Amazon, Suriname is one of the countries with the best track record of conservation in biome.

However, since 2012 Suriname has recorded an increase in the loss of forest, mainly as a result of gold mining.

Source Alamy

Between 2000 and 2014, the extent of mining areas, generally on a small scale industrial or artisanal mines, increased by 893%, according to the Foundation for Forest Management and Production Control.

The government foundation says mining is responsible for 73% of the country's deforestation.

Suriname is 10th in the world for gold production relative to its size. And that's without mentioning illegal mining.
Loss of primary forest in Suriname, 2002-18
Most illegal mining takes place in remote areas of the forest, far from the authorities. It is believed that up to 60% of the gold miners in Suriname are Brazilians who cross the border illegally.

In some of the larger areas belong to indigenous tribes or descendents of slaves, mining has become the main source of income for families.

There are no current official figures available for deforestation in Venezuela, but monitoring by local and international scientists show forest loss has increased in the last few years - especially since the creation of the Orinoco Mining Arc.

With the dramatic fall in oil prices and production in Venezuela since 2014, the Maduro government has focused its attention at states rich in minerals - such as the Amazon.

Venezuela has the sixth largest natural gold reserve in the world, with around 7,000 tonnes.

The mining arc, created in 2016, allowed licences for mining precious metals such as gold, diamonds and coltan (a combination of columbite and tantalite used in the production of mobile phones) across an area of 112,000 sq km, about 12% of the country.

The area also covers natural landmarks, forest reserves, an Amazon national park and at least four designated indigenous territories.

"The Orinoco zone is traditionally a mining area, even the indigenous people did it," says ecologist Carlos Pelaez, from the NGO Provita.

"But the law, in some ways, legalised forms of mining that were already in place and did not help reduce activity. This has had an enormous impact on the environment and the local population."

Maduro's plan was to grant concessions to foreign mining companies which would have to form businesses together with state-owned companies in order to operate in the area.

In practice, according to Mr Pelaez, this resulted in an exponential growth in small-scale mining.

In 2018 alone, according to the Central Bank of Venezuela, the state bought 9.2 tonnes of gold on the internal market - the same as the total amount for 2011-2017.
Loss of primary forest in Venezuela, 2002-18
It's having a devastating effect on the region.

"The gold that is there is of very poor quality, it's dirty," says Mr Pelaez. "The amount that is coming out of the ground is very small."

People are destroying the forest and digging wherever they can. They're leaving sterile sand where nothing can grow. The deforestation in this zone is irreversible Carlos Peláez, Provita

Mining is producing tonnes of sediment that is accumulating in the country's main rivers. The use of mercury to separate gold from impurities, is poisoning rivers and indigenous people.

Venezuela has the most illegal mines in the Amazon, according to a study by Raisg. There are 1,899 illegal mines, concentrated in the Orinoco mining arc.

In the midst of Venezuela's political crisis, the National Assembly tried to repeal the law that created the Orinoco Mining Arc and even labelled it "ecocide" or a crime against the environment.

We've asked three government ministries about the strategy to reduce deforestation in the zone, but none have responded.

Credits

Reporting: Camilla Costa

Text: Camilla Costa and Carol Olona

Design and graphics: Cecilia Tombesi

Production: Marta Martí and Marcos Gurgel

Translation: Dominic Bailey

Thanks to: Carlos Nobre, Antonio Nobre, Red Amazonía Sustentable, Red Amazónica de Información Socioambiental Georeferenciada (Raisg), Júlia Jacomini, Gustavo Faleiros, Infoamazônia, Thiago Medaglia, Erika Berenguer, Rodrigo Botero, Mikaela Weisse, Global Forest Watch.

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Amazon under threat: fires, loggers and now virus

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The Amazon rainforest - which plays a vital role in balancing the world's climate and helping fight global warming - is also suffering as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Deforestation jumped 55% in the first four months of 2020 compared with the same period last year, as people have taken advantage of the crisis to carry out illegal clearances.

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Environmental photographer of the year 2019 winners – in pictures | Environment | The Guardian

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Photograph: SL Shanth Kumar/2019 Ciwem environmental photographer of the year

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Environmental photographer of the year 2019 winners – in pictures

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SL Shanth Kumar has won Ciwem environmental photographer of the year 2019 for his image of homes battered by flooding in Mumbai, India

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Coronavirus: 'Children are showing resilience in this crisis' | Tes

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The girl who reminded me of our children's resilience

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The children in headteacher Julian Grenier's school catchment area have not had much to shout about - but the whole community has pulled together in the coronavirus crisis

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Kamrul Islam doesn't dare visit his local supermarket. Over the last few weeks, he said three of his closest friends fell ill with the coronavirus shortly after shopping there. One friend's mother became seriously unwell after contracting the virus and died.

The 40-year-old former cab driver says a day doesn't go by when he isn't aware of a death or infection of someone he knows. While the coronavirus has spread widely across the UK, the pandemic has taken a huge toll on the area where Islam lives, the east London borough of Newham, which has recorded the worst mortality rate in England and Wales.

The borough's rate - 144.3 deaths per 100,000 people - is closely followed by Brent in north London (141.5), and Newham's neighbour Hackney (127.4), according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics. The data confirms what Islam has suspected all along: people living in the poorest parts of the country are dying from Covid-19 at a much higher rate than those in the richest.

On Islam's road and neighbouring street, 22 people have died after contracting coronavirus. "Every day I get a message from someone in my community telling me of people who have died. They are young and old. It's been really tough," Islam said. His wife, who wished to remain anonymous, said: "You hear sad stories of people dying and no one was with them. It does affect people mentally."

The deaths from the coronavirus include Betty and Ken Hill, who were together for more than 40 years and died hours apart; Dr Yusuf Patel, who was the fifth GP to succumb to the virus in the UK; "exceptional" secondary school English teacher Dr Louisa Rajakumari; and Abdul Karim Sheikh, the former ceremonial mayor who founded one of the first mosques in the area.

The pandemic comes nearly a decade after the area hosted the 2012 Olympic Games, and has become a stark reminder that the better jobs, housing and quality of life that were promised have failed to materialise. Though parts of the borough have undergone regeneration and housing prices have rocketed, the legacy of the games wasn't felt by all.

Rokhsana Fiaz, who was elected mayor of Newham nearly two years ago, said: "I've grown up in the borough and lived here all my life. Like many of my friends, the opportunities that were promised with regards to the Olympics weren't necessarily felt by me or my peer group. There's a real sense of haves and have nots in the community. My promise has been we're going to reverse that because everyone in Newham needs to have a stake."

The borough's deprivation and diversity makes it particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus. More than half of children live in poverty, while the rate of households in temporary accommodation is one of the highest in England. A study commissioned by the council found that up to 36,000 people are not paid the legally required national minimum wage.

Newham has the most diverse population profile of any local authority in the country. Some 78% of residents are from ethnic minority communities, which has been reported as a risk factor for the coronavirus. Many live in intergenerational households and there are longstanding health inequalities.

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Tahir Mirza, chair of East Ham Labour party. Photograph: Alecsandra Raluca Dragoi/The Guardian

Tahir Mirza, Newham resident and chair of the local Labour party in East Ham, described the deaths in his area as "truly shocking" and called for more efforts for people in the community to get guidelines on social distancing in their own language. He said many didn't speak English and were simply unaware of the dangers they faced. The consequences of failing to reach these people will be dire, he said: "People will continue to die otherwise."

Dr Zubaida Haque, deputy director of the Runnymede Trust, said areas like Newham show the discussion about PPE and testing needs to go much further than just the NHS. Key workers, from taxi drivers and care workers to grocery shop owners, who are disproportionately from a BAME background, also require protective equipment. "BAME key workers aren't just NHS staff. We need to start asking whether they are getting proper PPE equipment. Are they being protected? Are they being tested? Is that infrastructure there?"

Peter Raison, a 58-year-old train driver for Transport for London who lives across the road from Islam, is also not surprised by the high level of mortality. Many like him on their street have to go to work and even he isn't being provided with PPE. He is upset that there are people still failing to socially distance as the death tolls increase. "People are just assuming it's not going to happen to me."
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'Every day I hear about a Covid-19 death': life in the UK's worst-affected area

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Kamrul Islam doesn't dare visit his local supermarket. Over the last few weeks, he said three of his closest friends fell ill with the coronavirus shortly after shopping there. One friend's mother became seriously unwell after contracting the virus and died.

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Carbon emissions from fossil fuels could fall by 2.5bn tonnes in 2020

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Global carbon emissions from the fossil fuel industry could fall by a record 2.5bn tonnes this year, a reduction of 5%, as the coronavirus pandemic triggers the biggest drop in demand for fossil fuels on record.

The unprecedented restrictions on travel, work and industry due to the coronavirus is expected to cut billions of barrels of oil, trillions of cubic metres of gas and millions of tonnes of coal from the global energy system in 2020 alone, according to data commissioned by the Guardian.

This would lead to the fossil fuel industry's biggest drop in CO ₂ emissions on record, in a single year eclipsing the carbon slumps triggered by the largest recessions of the last 50 years combined.

Climate experts expected global carbon emissions from fossil fuels and cement production to rise in 2020, from an estimated 36.8bn tonnes of carbon dioxide last year. Instead, emissions may fall by about 5%, or 2.5 b n tonnes of CO ₂, to its lowest levels in about a decade.

Dr Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, has warned against viewing the steep decline in emissions from fossil fuels as a climate triumph.

"This decline is happening because of the economic meltdown in which thousands of people are losing their livelihoods, not as a result of the right government decisions in terms of climate policies," he said.

"The reason we want to see emissions decline is because we want a more livable planet and happier, healthier people."

The fossil fuel analysis undertaken by Rystad Energy, a Norwegian energy consultancy, found a sharp contraction in GDP and the abrupt halt of flights and driving could cause the world's oil demand to fall by more than five times the drop in demand triggered by the global financial crisis in 2008.

The analysts estimate demand for crude will fall by an average of 11m barrels of oil a day this year, or 4bn barrels in total. This alone would cut 1.8bn tonnes of CO ₂ emissions, which would otherwise have contributed to the global climate crisis this year, according to Rystad.

The analysts also expected a slump in electricity use and heavy industry to drive demand for gas and coal down by about 2.3% each, erasing carbon emissions from each fossil fuel by 200mtonnes and 500m tonnes respectively.

Erik Holm Reiso, a senior partner at Rystad, said: "The coronavirus pandemic is an unprecedented event for energy markets, which will have a substantial impact on the world's total carbon emissions.

"The last time demand for oil contracted, during the financial crisis in 2008 to 2009, demand fell by 1.3m barrels of oil a day. But Covid-19 could cause oil demand to fall by more than five times as much."

The unprecedented drop in oil demand will emerge in large part due the global aviation industry, he said. Typically there are about 99,700 commercial flights per day but the crackdown on non-essential travel to curb the spread of the virus could see air traffic fall by an average of almost a quarter over the year.

Fewer cars on the road will also dent demand for petrol and diesel by an average of 9.4% over the year, shrinking oil demand in 2020 by an average of 2.6m barrels of oil a day.

The analysts say the use of transport fuels may start recovering in the second half of the year, but found demand would lag the figures recorded last year.

Energy demand in China, the world's biggest importer of oil, is expected to begin recovering next month, four months after the outbreak in the Wuhan province. However it will not make a full return to normal levels until September at the earliest, according to Rystad. This could stoke a slow rise in global energy demand in the second half of 2020 but a recovery to 2019 levels is not forecast for this year.

Resio said: "The real question is over the long-term impact of the virus. If we learn that remote working can work people may begin to question whether we need to take long haul flights to meet people in person. This could alter whether demand for oil ever recovers to the levels we have seen in previous years."

However, Birol said if governments didn't take the right measures to include support for clean energy in new economic stimulus packages "then this decline could be easily wiped out in the rebound of the economy", once Covid-19 is brought under control.

He said: "These figures are important and impressive. But they don't make me happy. For me it's more important about what happens next year, and the year after that."
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Carbon emissions from fossil fuels could fall by 2.5bn tonnes in 2020

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Global carbon emissions from the fossil fuel industry could fall by a record 2.5bn tonnes this year, a reduction of 5%, as the coronavirus pandemic triggers the biggest drop in demand for fossil fuels on record.

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Awakening volcanic region in Iceland 'could cause disruption for centuries'

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Volcanic activity is escalating in a region of Iceland that has not erupted for 800 years, with scientists warning it could cause disruption for centuries to come.

Since 21 January, the Reykjanes peninsula south-west of Iceland's capital, Reykjavik, has experienced more than 8,000 earthquakes and about 10cm of land uplift due to magma intrusions underground.

"It seems that after being relatively inactive for many centuries, this region is waking up," said Dave McGarvie, a volcanologist at Lancaster University.

Situated close to the town of Grindavík and the popular Blue Lagoon tourist attraction, and only nine miles (15km) from Iceland's international airport, the region last erupted about 800 years ago (though there have been more recent eruptions offshore). Geological evidence shows the area is fed by five volcanic systems, which seem to come to life in a coordinated way roughly every 1,000 years.

The last period of volcanic activity on the peninsula began in the 10th century and continued until the 13th. Unlike typical Icelandic volcanoes, which tend to wake for a few years and then die down, when this region gets going it appears to splutter on and off for up to 300 years, producing eruptive episodes (locally known as "fires") lasting a few decades. Long thin cracks known as fissures extend up to five miles (8km), producing fountains of lava, usually without large amounts of ash or explosive activity.

The most recent "fires" occurred between 1210 and 1240 and covered about 50 sq km of land in lava. At least six separate eruptions occurred, each lasting weeks to months, interspersed with gaps of up to 12 years with no activity. Volcanic rock fragments and particles were carried tens of kilometres by the wind and written sources report the rockfall causing problems for livestock in the area.

If a similar series of eruptions occurred today, the Iceland GeoSurvey calculates that runways at Keflavík airport could be coated in 2cm of ash, temporarily halting all flights.

"Wind direction during times of ash production is critical - anything with a slight northerly aspect is going to cause problems for the international airport and the metropolitan area of Reykjavík," said McGarvie.

"The worst-case scenario is if lava flows towards the town of Grindavík," said Kristín Jónsdóttir from the Icelandic Meteorological Office. "There is also other important infrastructure in the vicinity including a geothermal power plant. Hot and cold water supply may be at risk, along with roads, including the road between Reykjavík and Keflavík airport."

Icelanders are rarely fazed by volcanic activity, but they will be keeping a close eye on the Reykjanes peninsula. Because the eruptions are likely to be relatively small and occasional they will be easier to cope with than massive and sudden outpourings of lava like the 1783-84 Laki eruption, but if the pattern is indeed about to repeat, it will present a new kind of challenge for Icelanders.

"People on the Reykjanes peninsula, and their descendants for several generations, may have to be on their guard and ready to evacuate every so often," said McGarvie.

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Awakening volcanic region in Iceland 'could cause disruption for centuries'

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Volcanic activity is escalating in a region of Iceland that has not erupted for 800 years, with scientists warning it could cause disruption for centuries to come. Since 21 January, the Reykjanes peninsula south-west of Iceland's capital, Reykjavik, has experienced more than 8,000 earthquakes and about 10cm of land uplift due to magma intrusions underground.

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New renewable energy capacity hit record levels in 2019

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Almost three-quarters of new electricity generation capacity built in 2019 uses renewable energy, representing an all-time record. New data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) shows solar, wind and other green technologies now provide more than one-third of the world's power, marking another record.

Fossil fuel power plants are in decline in Europe and the US, with more decommissioned than built in 2019. But the number of coal and gas plants grew in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. In the Middle East, which owns half the world's oil reserves, just 26% of new electricity generation capacity built in 2019 was renewable.

The world has invested about $3tn in renewables over the past decade, according to Irena, but annual investments must double by 2030 to tackle the climate emergency.

Almost 75% of new electricity capacity was renewable in 2019

"While the trajectory is positive, more is required to put global energy on a path with sustainable development and climate mitigation," said Francesco La Camera, director general of Irena. "At this challenging time, we are reminded of the importance of building resilience into our economies."

La Camera said the huge spending planned by governments in response to the coronavirus pandemic must support green initiatives rather than fossil fuels. "In responding to today's crisis, governments may be tempted to focus on short-term solutions," he said. "Yet distinctions between short-, medium- and long-term challenges may be deceptive. The pandemic shows that delayed action brings significant economic consequences."

The global oil market is in turmoil, hit by collapsing demand due to Covid-19 lockdowns and a savage price war between Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US. La Camera said: "Renewable energy is a cost-effective source of new power that insulates power markets and consumers from volatility." Solar and wind power are now the cheapest form of electricity in two-thirds of the world.

The Irena data shows the increase in new renewable energy capacity slowed slightly in 2019 - from 179GW to 176GW - but that new fossil fuel power also fell. The total green energy installed to date around the world grew by 7.6%, with the UK's total rising 6.1%. The UK is now 11th in the world for installed renewables.

New solar power provided 55% of the new capacity, most of which was installed in Asia, with China, India, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam leading the way. Other major increases were seen in the US, Australia, Spain, Germany and Ukraine.

Wind power made up 34% of the total, with almost half in China and significant additions in the US. Global wind power capacity remains just ahead of solar, with 95% being onshore turbines.

Other green technologies - hydropower, bioenergy, geothermal and marine energy - all grew modestly year-on-year. While small compared with solar and wind power, geothermal energy - tapping the heat of deep rocks - is growing, with Turkey, Indonesia and Kenya leading the way.

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New renewable energy capacity hit record levels in 2019

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Almost three-quarters of new electricity generation capacity built in 2019 uses renewable energy, representing an all-time record. New data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) shows solar, wind and other green technologies now provide more than one-third of the world's power, marking another record.

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Record-size hole opens in ozone layer above the Arctic

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A rare hole has opened up in the ozone layer above the Arctic, in what scientists say is the result of unusually low temperatures in the atmosphere above the north pole.

The hole, which has been tracked from space and the ground over the past few days, has reached record dimensions, but is not expected to pose any danger to humans unless it moves further south. If it extends further south over populated areas, such as southern Greenland, people would be at increased risk of sunburn. However, on current trends the hole is expected to disappear altogether in a few weeks.

Low temperatures in the northern polar regions led to an unusual stable polar vortex, and the presence of ozone-destroying chemicals such as chlorine and bromine in the atmosphere - from human activities - caused the hole to form.

"The hole is principally a geophysical curiosity," said Vincent-Henri Peuch, director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. "We monitored unusual dynamic conditions, which drive the process of chemical depletion of ozone. [Those dynamics] allowed for lower temperatures and a more stable vortex than usual over the Arctic, which then triggered the formation of polar stratospheric clouds and the catalytic destruction of ozone."

The hole is not related to the Covid-19 shutdowns that have drastically cut air pollution and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. It is also too early to say whether the unusually stable Arctic polar vortex conditions are linked with the climate crisis, or part of normal stratospheric weather variability.

Peuch said there were no direct implications for the climate crisis. Temperatures in the region are already increasing, slowing the depletion of ozone, and the hole will start to recede as polar air mixes with ozone-rich air from lower latitudes. The last time similar conditions were observed was in spring 2011.

The hole was tracked by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, based partly in Reading and funded by the European commission.

While a hole over the Arctic is a rare event, the much larger hole in the ozone layer over the Antarctic has been a major cause for concern for more than four decades. The production of ozone-depleting chemicals has been drastically reduced, under the 1987 Montreal Protocol, but some sources appear still to be functioning - in 2018, unauthorised emissions were detected from eastern China.

The Antarctic ozone hole was the smallest in 35 years last November, showing the success of efforts to cut the production of the harmful pollutants. The ozone layer protects the earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet radiation from the sun.

New sources of ozone-depleting chemicals were not a factor in the hole observed in the Arctic, said Peuch. "However, this is a reminder that one should not take the Montreal Protocol measures for granted, and that observations from the ground and from satellites are pivotal to avoid a situation where the chlorine and bromine levels in the stratosphere could increase again."

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Record-size hole opens in ozone layer above the Arctic

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A rare hole has opened up in the ozone layer above the Arctic, in what scientists say is the result of unusually low temperatures in the atmosphere above the north pole. The hole, which has been tracked from space and the ground over the past few days, has reached record dimensions, but is not expected to pose any danger to humans unless it moves further south.

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Wildlife destruction 'not a slippery slope but a series of cliff edges'

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Wildlife species will die out and natural ecosystems collapse in the near future if the climate crisis goes unchecked, scientists have warned, as new research shows that the natural world is at far greater risk from climate breakdown than previously thought.

Catastrophe could strike this decade for some species, as key temperature thresholds are crossed. Instead of the anticipated gradual decline of species, there are likely to be a series of sudden collapses.

Ocean ecosystems will be first hit, as the seas have already warmed to an unprecedented extent, and problems such as lack of oxygen and an increase in acid worsen.

By the 2040s, a similarly abrupt collapse is likely to spread to the land, causing devastation among key species in Indonesia, the Amazon, India, northern Australia and sub-Saharan Africa and the Congo rainforest.

"It's not a slippery slope, but a series of cliff edges, hitting different places at different times," said Alex Pigot of University College London, lead author of the study, published today in the journal Nature.
'Tipping points' could exacerbate climate crisis, scientists fear
What appears to happen, according to the study's authors, is that most species can cope with warming temperatures for a while. But when a certain temperature threshold is crossed, suddenly a large proportion of species face conditions they have not experienced before, and the ecosystem can abruptly collapse.

The authors base their projections on dividing the globe into square cells of 100km by 100km, and within those cells studying the geographic ranges of more than 30,000 species of birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fish, and other animals and plants. They mapped this data against our knowledge of the climate from 1850 to 2005.

Then they broke down climate predictions from now until 2100 on an annual basis, examining when the species in each grid cell were likely to experience temperatures higher than they had before. That showed a different picture than had been previously possible, by giving a slow-motion projection, a bit like a time-lapse photograph, at a very fine scale, of how species would react each year as their habitats warmed.

The sound of an iceberg melting
The sound of an iceberg melting

Sorry your browser does not support audio - but you can download here and listen https://uploads.guim.co.uk/2020/04/08/melting-glacier--trimmed.mp3

"Despite many hundreds of studies looking at the impacts on biodiversity of climate change, this abrupt pattern [of collapse] hasn't previously been detected, because most studies have focused on projections for one - or a few - snapshots of the future, say the year 2070 or 2100," Pigot explained.

"In our study, we instead quantified how the risks to biodiversity from climate change will change over time at annual resolutions."

The scientists found that, on average, 73% of the species facing unprecedented temperatures before 2100 will cross that threshold simultaneously. If global temperatures rise by 4C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, as they will if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, then at least 15% of ecosystems will have an "abrupt exposure event", meaning more than one fifth of their constituent species will cross the threshold in the same decade, causing irreversible damage.

But at less than 2C of warming, the limit set under the Paris agreement, only 2% of ecosystems will go through such abrupt change, sparing many of the species at risk from higher temperatures.

That means taking urgent action on emissions could save tens of thousands of species by "flattening the curve" of the impact, and providing more time for species and ecosystems to adapt.

"It is not too late to stop extinctions from climate change," said Christopher Trisos, of the University of Cape Town, co-author of the three-year study.

"Our research shows that rapid action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions this decade will effectively flatten the curve of species at risk. Similar to the Covid-19 pandemic, early action to limit the risk pays off in a big way. It does not eliminate all risk from climate change, but reduces the number of species and ecosystems exposed by a massive amount."

Scientists have known for years about the likely existence of "tipping points" in the world's climate, when global heating triggers abrupt or self-reinforcing changes: for instance, the melting of the Arctic ice cap uncovers dark sea beneath, which absorbs more heat than the reflective ice and, in turn, results in more melting.

This new paper is one of a growing body of research showing there could be similar tipping points in the natural world, related to climate breakdown. It adds to other studies that have shown the Amazon and other major rainforests are likely to turn from carbon sinks to carbon sources, and shown the extent to which the sea and land have already absorbed the impacts of global heating.

Mark Wright, director of science at WWF-UK, said: "There is already more than enough evidence that climate change is impacting the natural world and that we risk losing up to a million species. We know what the solutions are to halt climate change and biodiversity loss.

"The world is currently rightly focused on tackling the global health emergency. However, this new research reinforces that, after we are through this extremely difficult time, we will need renewed ambitious action to address the climate and nature crisis."
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Wildlife destruction 'not a slippery slope but a series of cliff edges'

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Wildlife species will die out and natural ecosystems collapse in the near future if the climate crisis goes unchecked, scientists have warned, as new research shows that the natural world is at far greater risk from climate breakdown than previously thought. Catastrophe could strike this decade for some species, as key temperature thresholds are crossed.

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Chris Packham vows to continue HS2 legal battle

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The broadcaster Chris Packham has said he will continue his fight against the construction of HS2, which environmentalists say is leading to irreversible destruction of ancient habitats and woodlands.

Last week Packham applied for an urgent injunction to halt construction work and argued for a judicial review of the government's decision-making process in relation to the £106bn high-speed railway.

The high court dismissed his case, concluding: "The clearance works were long ago authorised by parliament and there is a strong public interest in ensuring that, in a democracy, activities sanctioned by parliament are not stopped by individuals merely because they do not personally agree with them."

On Saturday Packham said he would appeal against the decision. "In these times of climate and environmental emergency, resilience is key," he said. "Now is not the time to give up, now is the time to muster and protect what we have left."

He said he was heartbroken at the failure to halt the ongoing clearance works on the project and said ancient trees and important habitats were being lost.

"These are ancient woodlands that used to provide a safe and stable home to an abundance of wildlife, parts of which are now gone forever," he said. "The works are completely irreversible. Yet still we fight on, as we must try to protect all the other precious flora and fauna which is at risk from the HS2 project."

A number of MPs wrote to HS2 Ltd's chief executive, Mark Thurston, last month detailing residents' concerns about the project and urging him to halt all construction work during the coronavirus emergency.

There have been claims that construction teams were ignoring the government's physical distancing rules during the lockdown.

The RSPB has also urged HS2 not to clear woods during the April-September nesting season. Destruction of active birds' nests is illegal, and the charity has asked local people to report any incidents they see to the police.

Five ancient woodlands are the focus of HS2 "enabling" works: Broadwells Wood, Birches Wood, Crackley Woods and Ashow Road Wood in Warwickshire and Fulfen Wood in Staffordshire.

Packham had been seeking an interim injunction from the high court to halt all clearance and construction works. He was also seeking a judicial review of the decision to allow HS2 to proceed, on the basis that it was predicated on the findings and recommendations of the Oakervee review. Packham said the review - by a former chair of HS2 Ltd - failed to provide an independent, impartial and rigorous appraisal of relevant environmental and climate change factors.

Carol Day, a solicitor at the law firm Leigh Day,which is representing Packham, argued that the high court had failed to "properly address parts of his claim in relation to the loss of irreplaceable ancient woodlands and climate change".

She added: "He [Packham] believes that if the government is determined to proceed with this costly and damaging project, it must be on the basis of a full and proper understanding of the environmental impacts. Now more than ever it should be recognised that meeting our international environmental obligations has a vital part to play in protecting nature and human health."

A spokesperson for HS2 saidall its ecology work was carried out in accordance with the law under the supervision of professionally qualified ecologists. It said licences from Natural England ensured the correct safeguards were in place to protect wildlife.

Its statement added: "To ensure the health, safety and wellbeing of our workforce and the communities in which we are working, only construction sites that can maintain government guidelines and are critical to the delivery of HS2 will remain operational."

It said work had paused at some sites, "although some sites may remobilise if our contractors are confident they can operate in line with PHE and industry guidance".

It said: "Those sites still working are doing so because they are confident they are operating within PHE guidelines, and will be monitored and remain under constant review."

A DfT spokesperson said: "We have tasked HS2 Ltd with delivering one of the UK's most environmentally responsible infrastructure projects. While our current priority is combating the spread of coronavirus, we must continue our work to level up the country. HS2 will be crucial to that ambition, boosting capacity and connectivity across our rail network."

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Chris Packham vows to continue HS2 legal battle

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The broadcaster Chris Packham has said he will continue his fight against the construction of HS2, which environmentalists say is leading to irreversible destruction of ancient habitats and woodlands. Last week Packham applied for an urgent injunction to halt construction work and argued for a judicial review of the government's decision-making process in relation to the £106bn high-speed railway.

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'It's positively alpine!': Disbelief in big cities as air pollution falls

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The screenshots began to circulate on Delhi WhatsApp groups last week, captioned with varying expressions of disbelief. Having checked the air quality index, something of a sadistic morning ritual among residents of India's capital, most could not believe their eyes.

Gone was the familiar menacing red banner, indicating how each intake of breath is really just a toxic blast on the lungs, replaced instead by a healthy, cheerful green. Could it really be that Delhi's pollution levels now fell into the category of ... "good"? "It's positively alpine!" exclaimed one message.

A nationwide lockdown imposed across India on 24 March to stop the spread of the coronavirus - the largest lockdown of its kind attempted anywhere - has led to widespread chaos and suffering, especially among the country's 300 million poor. Yet in Delhi, the world's most polluted city, it has also resulted in some of the freshest air the capital has seen in decades.

New Delhi pollution then and now

It is a lockdown silver lining being repeated across the world, as toxic megacities such as Bangkok, Beijing, São Paulo and Bogotá, where varying coronavirus restrictions have been imposed, all reported an unprecedented decline in pollution. Yet it is countered with one cruel irony: with most residents of these cities strictly confined to their homes, few have any way to appreciate this newly fresh air, except through an open window or a during speedy trip to the supermarket.

In Delhi, air quality index (AQI) levels are usually a severe 200 on a good day (anything above 25 is deemed unsafe by World Health Organization). During peak pollution periods last year they soared well into a life-threatening 900 and sometimes off the measurable scale. But as Delhi's 11m registered cars were taken off the roads and factories and construction were ground to a halt, AQI levels have regularly fallen below 20. The skies are suddenly a rare, piercing blue. Even the birdsong seems louder.

Dr Shashi Tharoor, a politician and author who has been vocal on environmental issues, said he hoped that it was a wake-up call. "The blissful sight of blue skies and the joy of breathing clean air provides just the contrast to illustrate what we are doing to ourselves the rest of the time," said Tharoor. "Today the typical Delhi AQI hovers around 30 and one blissful afternoon, after a spurt of rain, it dropped to 7."

"Seven," Tharoor exclaimed again in disbelief. "In Delhi! Pure joy!".

New Delhi's India Gate war memorial on 17 October 2019 and on 8 April 2020

Tharoor's sister Smita, who was visiting from the UK when the lockdown was imposed and found herself stuck in Delhi, was equally effusive. As someone with asthma, she said the city's air, normally thick with pollution, was usually a health nightmare. But now: "The air is clear, the skies are blue. I see the evening stars with clarity and hear the chirruping of excited birds at this unexpected bonus they have received."

While India's powerful car lobby has long disputed that cars are a major cause of Delhi's pollution, Sunita Narain, director of the Centre for Science and Environment, said the lockdown and resulting rapid drop in pollution showed once and for all just what a polluting role vehicles had in the city.

Narain also stressed that while she wished Delhi was like this "all the time", adding: "I don't want people to say 'Oh, environmentalists are celebrating this lockdown:' we are not. This is not the solution. But whatever the new normal is post-Covid-19, we have to make sure we take this breath of fresh air and think about the serious efforts we need to deal with pollution in Delhi."

It is not just Delhi experiencing the clearest skies in years. As pollution dropped to its lowest level in three decades this week this week, residents of Jalandhar in Punjab woke up to an incredible sight in the distance: the Dhauladhar mountain range in Himachal Pradesh. The peaks, which are over 120 miles away, had not been sighted on the Punjab horizon for almost 30 years.

It is the absence of cars on some of the world's most congested roads that seems to be making the most crucial differences. Thailand's capital, Bangkok, which only last month had closed schools because the pollution got so bad, has experienced a similar transformation in the air since partial lockdown, mainly due to the fall in road traffic. "We can see quite a big gap between the air quality standard that we have [compared with this time last year]," says Tara Buakamsri, Thailand director for Greenpeace.

New Delhi pollution then and now 2

But residents of Bangkok lamented how the places to enjoy the fresh air were swiftly disappearing. Playgrounds, sporting grounds and even parks, a rare source of solace in the bustling, intensely urban environs of Bangkok, have all now been shut. "I feel sad for the old people who use the park to hang out and meet friends. I think they will be so sad at home," said Nantawan Wangudomsuk, 31, a producer who used to run in the parks.

Across South America's most populous city of São Paulo, ground zero of Brazil's brewing coronavirus crisis, notorious traffic queues and smoggy horizons are also giving way to calm streets and clearer skies.

During weekday rush-hour, downtown São Paulo's João Goulart elevated highway - nicknamed Minhocão, the Big Worm - normally heaves with traffic as thousands of cars cram four narrow lanes and beeping motorbikes weave through daringly small spaces. But with the city's coronavirus lockdown, Minhocão now resembles a small-town avenue instead of a major road in a metropolis of 12 million people.

"The air is certainly better," said Daniel Guth,an urban mobility consultant. "I've felt the improvement in air quality both as a cyclist and as a quarantined citizen," he laughed. "We should use this as a moment to reflect on what transport methods we should prioritise when this crisis is over."

Despite being under lockdown, many Paulistas, as the city's residents are known, are still finding ways to enjoy the cleaner air, taking to windows and apartment balconies for nightly pot-banging protests against Brazil's far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who has repeatedly dismissed the coronavirus as just "a little flu".

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Empty roads in Bogota on 21 March, after quarantine was imposed on the city. Photograph: Raúl Arboleda/AFP via Getty

Bogotá, the sprawling mountaintop capital of Colombia, is also usually choking with traffic so bad that officials occasionally ban cars for entire days. But since the nationwide coronavirus quarantine took hold on 24 March, exhaust fumes have fallen as the city ground to a halt. Yet the newly fresh air has been taunting Bogotá's residents, who are allowed to leave home only for food and medicines, not even a daily dose of outdoor exercise. "Without a doubt this pandemic is helping us improve air quality," said Carolina Urrutia, Bogotá's district environment secretary. "With the city shut down, we are able to focus our efforts on other environmental factors."

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An avenue in Cali, Colombia, on 1 April. Photograph: Luis Robayo/AFP via Getty Images

Cali, Colombia's third city and usually a smokey, congested metropolis, has also been spared from the usual forest fires, allowing residents to breathe fresher air. "The thick cloud that usually hangs over us has been lifted," said Christian Camilo Villa, an air quality activist and Cali resident. "The concern is that it will return when the quarantine ends."

Indeed, the fear among environmentalists and residents is that, rather than attempting to maintain the low levels of pollution in the world's biggest capitals, when industry and cars kick back into action post-lockdown, the situation will go back to square one, and perhaps even worsen, as people and industry attempt to make up for the lost months.

The signs from China, which is coming out of the other side of the coronavirus outbreak and where lockdowns are loosening up, are not positive. For the first four weeks after the Chinese new year holiday in late January, when the coronavirus outbreak was at its worst, pollution levels fell 25% across the country. But since early March, levels of nitrogen dioxide pollution have begun to inch back up as the country gets back to work with factories, businesses and power plants re-opening and traffic returning.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst for the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said: "The big question is whether government stimulus measures lead to pollution levels rebounding above the levels before the crisis, like happened after the 2008 financial crisis."
Topics

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'It's positively alpine!': Disbelief in big cities as air pollution falls

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The screenshots began to circulate on Delhi WhatsApp groups last week, captioned with varying expressions of disbelief. Having checked the air quality index, something of a sadistic morning ritual among residents of India's capital, most could not believe their eyes.

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Chilean desert comes alive with rare super-flower bloom

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The Atacama Desert in Chile has areas so dry no rainfall has been recorded, but every five to seven years it transforms into a "desierto florido," or flowering desert.

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Remote Amazon tribe records its first coronavirus case

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Remote Amazon tribe records its first coronavirus case: Boy, 15, becomes infected amid fears COVID-19 could 'wipe out' native communities

The boy belongs to the Yanomami community on the Brazil-Venezuela border

He is in intensive care in Roraima state after suffering with sore throat and fever

Seven tribesmen have now contracted the deadly virus in the northern states

A remote Amazon tribe has recorded its first case of coronavirus after a 15-year-old boy fell critically ill.

The teenager, who belongs to the Yanomami community along the Brazilian-Venezuelan border, is in intensive care with COVID-19 symptoms.

He was admitted to the General Hospital of Roraima, Brazil's northernmost state, on April 3 suffering with shortness of breath, chest pain, a sore throat and fever.

The native initially tested negative, but fears of coronavirus were later confirmed in a second examination, according to the country's Globo newspaper.

The Yanomami tribe is believed to be the largest indigenous people in Brazil and occupies over 200 villages across 2.3million acres.

They are a remote community, but it is reported that the boy, travelled back to his reserve on the banks of the Mucajaí River after his school classes were suspended to stem the tide of Brazil's outbreak.

Seven tribesmen have now contracted the deadly virus across the Amazon states of Pará, Amazonas and Roraima.

Their infections have compounded fears among Brazil's medical experts that the country's indigenous communities face an unprecedented crisis.

The community's elders are most vulnerable to the lethal effects of the virus, and their deaths would strip the tribe of its highly valued wisdom and hierarchy which could unleash 'chaos' their structures.

To tackle the outbreak, members of some communities are breaking off into smaller groups equipped with hunting supplies to isolate themselves.

Federal University of São Paulo researcher Dr Sofia Mendonça told BBC News: 'There is an incredible risk of the virus spreading across the native communities and wiping them out.

'Everyone gets sick, and you lose all the old people, their wisdom and social organization. It's chaos.'

Previous epidemics, such as the 1960s measles outbreaks which killed 9 per cent of the Yanomami tribe, have wreaked havoc on Brazil's native population as they have not built up immunity and are not equipped with adequate medication.

President of the Federation of Indigenous Organizations of Rio Negro (Foirn) Marivelton Baré said some local communities are 'in a panic'.

'We'll need to take the food to the villages so that they don't expose themselves during this critical moment.'

Members of the communities have been told to use stop sharing eating utensils and to isolate those who have become infected with the bug.

Although the recorded cases in the tribes have so far been kept low, Brazil has more than 18,000 cases and 957 deaths.

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Remote Amazon tribe records its first coronavirus case

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The boy belongs to the Yanomami community on the Brazil-Venezuela border He is in intensive care in Roraima state after suffering with sore throat and fever Seven tribesmen have now contracted the deadly virus in the northern states A remote Amazon tribe has recorded its first case of coronavirus after a 15-year-old boy fell critically ill.

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How coronavirus inspired a gangland truce in South Africa

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How coronavirus inspired a gangland truce

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A truce has broken out in the notorious, gang-infested townships around South Africa's Cape Town.

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Mesmerising, amazing, massive, surprising, never-before. There's been no dearth on social media of words to express what people in Jalandhar district of Punjab in India were feeling.

Sant Balbir Singh Seechewal says he has never seen anything like this before.

Highlights:

"We can see the snow-covered mountains clearly from our roofs. And not just that, stars are visible at night. I have never seen anything like this in recent times," says Mr Seechewal, who has been working to raise awareness of environmental pollution for over 30 years.

Images of the snow-clad Dhauladhar range of Himalayas have been shared widely.

Former Indian cricketer Harbhajan Singh said it's a never-before experience.

Never seen Dhauladar range from my home rooftop in Jalandhar..never could imagine that's possible..clear indication of the impact the pollution has done by us to Mother Earth 🌍.. this is the view pic.twitter.com/laRzP8QsZ9
- Harbhajan Turbanator (@harbhajan_singh) April 3, 2020

"Never seen Dhauladar range from my home rooftop in Jalandhar. Never could imagine that's possible. A clear indication of the impact the pollution has done by us to mother earth," Mr Singh posted on Twitter.

India pollution to 'unbelievably low levels'

India, a country of nearly 1.4 billion people, has been under lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic since 22 March.

"Not just normal traffic is off the roads, but most industry is also shut down. This has helped bring the pollution level to unbelievably low levels," Mr Seechewal said.

India's Central Pollution Board says the nationwide Janta Curfew on March 22, and lockdown since March 22, have resulted in significant improvement in air quality in the country.

In Delhi alone, overall, there was a reduction of up to 44 per cent in PM10 March 22-23, 2020 compared to the previous day.

According to the India Today Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) from March 16-27, the air quality index improved by 33 per cent on an average in the country.

"Data shows that on average, Indian cities had an AQI of 115 between March 16 and 24. The air quality started showing improvements from the first day of the 21-day lockdown. The average AQI fell to 75 in the first three days of the lockdown," reads the report.

A picture captured today from sialkot LOC . Kashmir mountains. This kind of clear we are seeing after around more than 30 years pic.twitter.com/67KVRNJTOr
- Khawar S Khawaja (@khawajaks) April 4, 2020

The World Health Organisation says the safe limit for air quality is to keep the particulate matter PM2.5 below 20mg/m3.

India, during most of the year, records five times higher (PM 2.5 higher than 100mg/m3) than the global safe limit.

Official figures suggest the lockdown has so far helped keep the spread of coronavirus under control.

According to the latest figures from India's health ministry, the total number of COVID-19 cases in the country has passed the 4,000 mark with over 100 people dead so far.

Balbir Singh Seechewal says this should be taken as a wake-up call.

"I had never imagined I would experience such a clean world around me. The unimaginable has happened. It shows nothing is impossible. We must work together to keep it like that," he said.

Worldwide pollution levels drop amid Coronavirus measures

The shutdown of businesses and activities related to Covid-19 has also led to a decrease in nitrogen dioxide concentration across the world.

The European Union's space agency (ESA) has detected reductions in the pollutant nitrogen dioxide associated with shutdowns due to the coronavirus across the world.

New research is now looking at why the mortality rate was up to 12 per cent in parts of northern part of Italy compared to approximately 4.5 per cent in the rest of the country.

Scientists at Aarhus University say they found a "probable correlation between air pollution and mortality in two of the worst affected regions in northern Italy."

Their research has been published in the scientific journal Environmental Pollution.

People in Australia must stay at least 1.5 metres away from others and gatherings are limited to two people unless you are with your family or household.

If you believe you may have contracted the virus, call your doctor (don't visit) or contact the national Coronavirus Health Information Hotline on 1800 020 080. If you are struggling to breathe or experiencing a medical emergency, call 000.

SBS is committed to informing Australia's diverse communities about the latest COVID-19 developments. News and information is available in 63 languages at sbs.com.au/coronavirus.

Tune into SBS Hindi at 5 pm every day and follow us on Facebook and Twitter

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Himalayas visible for first time in 30 years as pollution levels in India drop

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As the lockdown to stop the spread of coronavirus in India continues, pollution levels across much of the country have dropped sharply. Now some residents in northern India say they can see the snow-capped Himalayas 200 kilometres away for the first time in 30 years.

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Indigenous communities in the Amazon region and elsewhere in Brazil are in danger of being "wiped out" by the coronavirus, according to health experts.

Respiratory illnesses - such as those that develop from the influenza virus - are already the main cause of death for native communities.

By Sunday 5 April, Brazil had reported more than 11,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 486 deaths.

Infections were initially concentrated in the industrialized state of São Paulo. However, they have now spread across the country, including to indigenous territories in the Amazon basin that are the size of France and Spain combined.

The first case among indigenous peoples was recorded in Amazonas state.

"There is an incredible risk of the virus spreading across the native communities and wiping them out," says Dr Sofia Mendonça, a researcher at the Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp).

Dr Mendonça is the co-ordinator of a university-led health project among indigenous peoples in the Xingu river basin in the Amazon rainforest.

She fears the coronavirus could have a similar impact to previous major outbreaks of highly contagious respiratory diseases such as measles.

In the 1960s, a measles outbreak among members of the Yanomami community living near the border with Venezuela killed 9% of those infected.

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"Everyone gets sick, and you lose all the old people, their wisdom and social organization," Dr Mendonça says. "It's chaos."

In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, she adds, some communities are planning to split into smaller groups and seek refuge inside the forest. That is how they avoided extinction during past epidemics.

"They will gather materials needed for hunting and fishing and will set up camps, waiting there until the dust settles," she says.

Many communities lack the means to reduce the risk of contagion, such as washing hands with soap and water, or using hand sanitizer.

People also often live in close quarters with each other and share bowls and glasses, both of which help infectious diseases spread more quickly.

They are now being advised to stop sharing utensils and to use traditional seclusion practices - such as those applied to women after they give birth - to isolate people with the symptoms of Covid-19.

Indigenous communities also live in areas where there is limited access to healthcare, particularly intensive care beds.

Taking measures into their own hands

But as the virus spreads across Brazil, many are questioning whether the government will seek to protect indigenous groups, which make up 0.5% of the population.

President Jair Bolsonaro is seen by many indigenous leaders as an enemy of their cause. He has said Brazil's indigenous lands are too big and that their natural resources should be shared with the rest of the population.

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While many governors and mayors have ordered restrictions to reduce infections, the president has compared the coronavirus to a "a little flu" and advocated reopening schools and shopping centres.

In the face of government inaction, several indigenous organisations have asked their communities to suspend trips to cities and prevent visitors from entering their territory.

"Whoever is a true friend understands our fragility. Let's keep the coronavirus away from the villages," said a banner posted on a road in Mato Grosso state by members of the Karajá indigenous people.

Even with such precautions, experts say it is likely Covid-19 will eventually reach some villages and that it will be necessary to isolate the sick before they infect people in contact with them.

Experts also warn about the grave threat the coronavirus poses to indigenous groups who already live in voluntary isolation.

According to the federal agency for indigenous affairs, Funai, there are 107 known indigenous groups in Brazil's Amazon that have no contact with the outside world.

However, illegal loggers, hunters and evangelical missionaries are operating in their territories. And indigenous organisations and NGOs say there has been a sharp increase in incursions in recent years.

Funai has also had its budget slashed by consecutive administrations, making it harder for the agency to protect remote communities.

There are now fears that the battle against the coronavirus will further reduce its resources to protect the forest and those living in it.

While most indigenous groups agree they should avoid visiting cities to reduce the risk of infection, many leaders say people could go hungry if they have no access to markets.

In São Gabriel da Cachoeira, an Amazonian municipality that borders Colombia and Venezuela, thousands of members of local groups travel on boats to the city each month to receive pensions and access government cash-transfer programmes.

The expansion of such programmes in recent decades means some communities have stopped hunting for and growing their own food, and now rely on them to survive.

Marivelton Baré, president of the Federation of Indigenous Organizations of Rio Negro (Foirn), says many local communities are "in a panic".

"We'll need to take the food to the villages so that they don't expose themselves during this critical moment," he says.

There are no ventilators in São Gabriel da Cachoeira's hospital, so a seriously ill patient would need to be sent to the capital of Amazonas, Manaus - a 1,000km-long (620-mile) boat journey away.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a nurse working for the Special Secretariat for Indigenous Health (Sesai) says its staff have no testing kits to detect Covid-19, and that there are not enough protective masks and other equipment to deal with cases in indigenous villages.

Sesai itself told the BBC it had provided "a series of technical documents, so that indigenous peoples, managers and employees could be guided to adopt measures to prevent coronavirus infection".

The agency added that all its health teams had received training on how to treat patients.

But it did not comment on the fears of food shortages in villages.

Funai, the federal agency for indigenous affairs, did not say how it would tackle hunger and land invasions during the pandemic.

Mr Baré says the government has not offered any help and that people will start to ignore the advice to stay in their villages if their food stocks run out.

"If the choice is either being infected or going hungry, most will choose the first," he warns. "Then the consequences will be dire."

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Coronavirus 'could wipe out Brazil's indigenous people'

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Indigenous communities in the Amazon region and elsewhere in Brazil are in danger of being "wiped out" by the coronavirus, according to health experts. Respiratory illnesses - such as those that develop from the influenza virus - are already the main cause of death for native communities.

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Ecuador's tallest waterfall has run dry after a sinkhole opens up

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Tallest waterfall in Ecuador runs dry after mysterious sinkhole opens up under the river that feeds it

The San Rafael waterfall in Ecuador, the tallest in the country, has run dry

A large sinkhole opened up underneath the river that fed the falls

Local officials are researching the cause of the sinkhole

Some claim it was caused by a hydroelectric plant that opened upstream in 2016

Others say it could have been caused by seismic activity in the region

The San Rafael waterfall in Ecuador has run dry.

Local officials have traced the cause to a large sinkhole that opened beneath the river that once fed the falls.

Located in Cayambe Coca Park, part of the Ecuadorian Amazon near the border with Colombia, the falls ranked as the tallest in the country at more than 500 feet.

Scroll down for video

The waterfall had previously attracted tens of thousands of visitors a year, and was hailed by the government as a 'symbol of eco-tourism in Ecuador'.

The government has restricted access to the site of the falls and surrounding area as a team investigates what caused the sinkhole, according to a report in Mongabay.

Ecuador's environment ministry said park rangers had noticed a 'possible undermining of the river's path prior to the waterfall' which had 'caused the water to take a new course'.

The once-impressive waterfall stopped flowing on February 2, according to NASA's Earth Observatory.

Some have pointed to a hydroelectric plant 12 miles upstream as a possible cause.

'A waterfall that has been there for thousands of years does not collapse, coincidentally, a few years after opening a hydroelectric project,' Emilio Cobo, coordinator at the South America Water Program with the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, told Mongabay.

'These are processes that are in scientific papers and there is sufficient evidence that a dam can cause effects of this type on a river.'

The plant, which was built by the Chinese company SinoHydro and opened in 2016, isn't directly on the river, but it has a diversion reservoir that's designed to remove between 90 and 100 percent of the sediment from the river before its waters reach the plant.

Sediment acts as a protective layer in riverbeds, helping to insulate the ground below from water erosion.

Without a steady flow of new sediment from upstream, the older sediment is eventually washed away, leaving more of the riverbed susceptible to erosion, a condition researchers describe as 'hungry waters.'

Geologist and former secretary of Natural Capital at Ecuador's Ministry of Environment Alfredo Carrasco argues that the 'hungry waters' phenomenon could also have been caused by seismic activity in the region.

'There are many quite intense earthquakes here. In March 1987, a very strong one appeared that caused tremendous damage to the trans-Ecuadorian oil pipeline that passes right through it,' Carrasco said.

'For me, the phenomenon is eminently of natural origin.'

In Carrasco's theory, sediment from upstream could have been blocked by a natural dam that was formed after an earthquake, which over time would have limited the amount of sediment flowing downstream, potentially causing erosion sufficient to create the sinkhole.

Whatever the cause, researchers agree the sinkhole will radically reshape the region as the once unitary river has now been split into three smaller streams, each of which have formed their own small waterfalls along the jungle ridge.

The three new waterfalls cannot be seen from the viewing platforms which were located around the original landmark.

These newer and smaller waterfalls, will bring added risk of landslides and potentially threaten the wellbeing of fish and other invertebrates that had been a part of the river's ecosystem for years.

'In the scientific world, many do not see rivers as ecosystems, when in reality it is a reduced surface that ends up absorbing many of the environmental impacts,' Cobo said.

Ecuador's government does not plan to perform the reconstruction on the riverbed which would be necessary to restore the waterfall.

Visitors had previously been encouraged to take a half-hour walk from a nearby road and see the butterflies who lived near the waterfall.

'The waterfall is now part of history,' the NASA Earth Observatory says.

WHAT ARE SINKHOLES?

A sinkhole is a hole in the ground created by erosion and the drainage of water.

They can range in size from a few feet in diameter to the size capable of swallowing entire buildings.

They are a natural phenomenon but the process is often amplified by human processes and interference.

There are two basic types of sinkhole which are separated by how they form.

Slow developing ones are known as a cover-subsidence sinkhole and those that appear suddenly are called a cover-collapse sinkhole.

The sudden holes which seize headlines are the latter and can cause devastation and even death.

Often, it involves soluble rock, such as limestone, becoming moist and eroding rapidly.

This then leads to a swift loss of land and a sinkhole emerges.

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Ecuador's tallest waterfall has run dry after a sinkhole opens up

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The San Rafael waterfall in Ecuador, the tallest in the country, has run dry A large sinkhole opened up underneath the river that fed the falls Local officials are researching the cause of the sinkhole Some claim it was caused by a hydroelectric plant that opened upstream in 2016 Others say it could have been caused by seismic activity in the region The San Rafael waterfall in Ecuador has run dry.

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Hungry monkeys brawl over food as coronavirus hits tourism in Thailand – video

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A large crowd of monkeys has been filmed brawling over a pot of yoghurt in a street in Thailand. A fall in tourist numbers amid the Covid-19 outbreak has resulted in far fewer people offering them food. The video was filmed in Lopburi, a city north-east of Bangkok that is famed for its monkey population

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Hungry monkeys brawl over food as coronavirus hits tourism in Thailand - video

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A large crowd of monkeys has been filmed brawling over a pot of yoghurt in a street in Thailand. A fall in tourist numbers amid the Covid-19 outbreak has resulted in far fewer people offering them food.

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Coronavirus: Goats take over empty streets of seaside town - BBC News

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A herd of goats has taken over a deserted town centre, eating hedges and flowers from gardens.

Usually, the wild herd of about 122 Kashmiri goats venture from the Great Orme into Llandudno during bad weather.

But town councillor Carol Marubbi believes the lack of people around because of coronavirus has drawn them down.

"They are curious, goats are, and I think they are wondering what's going on like everybody else," she said.

The goats - some of which have recently had kids - have been spotted nibbling flowers.

Wild goats flock to Llandudno in bad weather

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She said everyone in Llandudno was "very proud" of the animals and they had been providing "free entertainment" to people from their windows.

Image Copyright @AndrewStuart @AndrewStuart Report

Image Copyright @AndrewStuart @AndrewStuartReport

"There are very few visitors on the top [of the Orme], so they have come down in their droves," she said.

"There isn't anyone else around so they probably decided they may as well take over."

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Goats take over empty streets of seaside town

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A herd of goats has taken over a deserted town centre, eating hedges and flowers from gardens. Usually, the wild herd of about 122 Kashmiri goats venture from the Great Orme into Llandudno during bad weather. But town councillor Carol Marubbi believes the lack of people around because of coronavirus has drawn them down.

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- As the coronavirus pandemic continues to spread across Brazil, organized crime gangs in Rio de Janeiro have stepped forward to enforce their own lockdowns in a bid to minimize damage to the city's favelas or slums.

The move comes as far-right President Jair Bolsonaro faces a wave of criticism over his handling of the novel virus, which he has dismissed as a " little flu" and a " fantasy"-sparking demands from the left for his resignation as well as rumblings about a military plot to oust the notorious head of state.

Brazilian media have reported that gangsters have been circulating messages through WhatsApp and other platforms demanding that locals comply with an evening curfew or otherwise be taught a lesson in " respect " that they wouldn't forget.

Brazilian digital newspaper G1 reports that one message read:

"Attention all residents of Rio das Pedras, Muzema and Tijuquinha! Curfew starting today 20 hours. Whoever is seen on the street after this time will learn to respect others!"

While a similar message read:

"We want the best for the population. If the government does not have the capacity to fix it, organized crime solves it."

In the favelas, it's the crime gangs, not Bolsonaro's government, that enforce the lockdown (FT today) pic.twitter.com/di8JGpACOj

- Alexandre Afonso (@alexandreafonso) March 28, 2020

Extra also reported that in the western Rio-based Cidade de Deus, or "City of God"-the sprawling favela made famous in the 2002 blockbuster film of the same name-gangsters have been driving around issuing warnings to residents to obey the lockdown or face disciplinary measures.

One message said:

"We're imposing a curfew because nobody is taking this seriously. Whoever is in the street screwing around or going for a walk will receive a corrective and serve as an example. Better to stay home doing nothing. The message has been given."

Social media posts also show community organizations and civic associations conducting outreach activities in poor neighborhoods in hopes of raising awareness about the need to stay at home and be conscious of hygiene.

Quer Ajudar as Favelas do Rio a Mitigar os Efeitos do Covid-19? Aqui Está uma Lista de Pontos Comunitários de Doação https://t.co/h364dcTtRQ

Soluções das próprias comunidades garantem uma resposta direta, dinâmica e eficaz para responder à situação. Participe! pic.twitter.com/jN2gIdeT3C

- RioOnWatch.org (@RioOnWatch) March 28, 2020

The message comes as residents prepare for the pandemic to reach monstrous proportions in neglected urban zones where basic sanitation has been described by locals as "terrible." Jefferson Maia, a 27-year-old resident of the City of God slum complex, told Reuters:

"Sometimes, we don't even have water to wash our hands properly. We are very concerned with the coronavirus issue."

Edmilson Migowski, an infectologist at Federal University in Rio, said that the favelas could become a hotbed for the virus in the coming days. He explained:

"The entry of coronavirus into denser, less planned and less culturally assisted areas could be devastating. Where water, soap and detergent are lacking, it will be difficult to stop the spread."

In the meantime, Bolsonaro has been accused of recklessly denying the facts about the novel virus, even going so far as rebuking his own health minister's appeal for social distancing on Sunday with the declaration: "We'll all die one day."

Que Vergüenza!!😠
A falta de Gobierno, los narcotraficantes de Brasil imponen #ToqueDeQueda en algunas favelas para prevenir el contagio con el Coronavirus, Por su lado el presidente Jair Bolsonaro califica al coronavirus como un simple Resfriado.#SolidaridadYUniónNacional pic.twitter.com/a0ET0tuGUp

- Somos Río Crecido (@SOMOSRIOCRECID) March 25, 2020

On Monday morning, a range of opposition figures and intellectuals published a statement in the Folha de São Paulo newspaper denouncing Bolsonaro's irresponsible management of the crisis. The declaration, Brazil Cannot Be Destroyed By Bolsonaro, said:

"Brazil and the world are facing an emergency unprecedented in modern history ... [and] in our country the emergency is exacerbated by an irresponsible president. Jair Bolsonaro is the greatest obstacle to urgent decisions being taken to reduce the spread of the infection [and] save lives.

Continuing, the statement read:

"Bolsonaro is in no position to keep governing Brazil ... He commits crimes ... lies and fosters chaos, taking advantage of the despair of our most vulnerable citizens. We need unity and understanding to face up to the pandemic, not a president who goes against public health authorities and puts his authoritarian political interests above the lives of everyone else.

The statement concluded:

"Bolsonaro is more than a political problem - he has become a public health problem ... He should resign. He needs to be urgently contained and must answer for the crimes he is committing against our people."
By Elias Marat | Creative Commons | TheMindUnleashed.com
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Gangs in Brazil Enforce Their Own Lockdown After Bolsonaro Writes Off Coronavirus as "Fantasy"

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A decade after the earthquake, Haiti still struggles to recover

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More than 300,000 people were killed, several hundred thousand were injured and nearly 1.5 million were left homeless when magnitude 7 earthquake hit Haiti on Jan. 12, 2010.

On that day, the workspace that my colleague Joseph Jr Clorméus, who co-authored this article, usually occupied at the Ministry of National Education completely collapsed. He witnessed an apocalyptic spectacle: colleagues had lost their lives while others were having limbs amputated to escape certain death under the rubble. Outside, corpses littered the streets of the capital while the horrifying spectacle of blood mixed with concrete and dust offered itself to the desolate gaze of a traumatized population.

Ten years later, Haiti hasn't recovered from this disaster, despite billions of dollars being spent in the country.

Two main factors explain, in our view, the magnitude of this tragedy: the weakness of Haitian public institutions and the disorganization of international aid, particularly from NGOs.

AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos

The weakness of the Haitian state

Haiti is vulnerable to earthquakes. Historically, they have been managed by the military, which played an important role in both national development and natural disaster management. But the speedy dismantling of the national army under Jean-Bertrand Aristide's presidency did not allow for the transfer of the army's natural disaster management skills to other civilian public institutions.

Indeed, a great deal of know-how disappeared. Despite the presence of several government bodies that had tried to develop skills in relation to earthquakes, no reliable operational body was able to manage the institutional vacuum left by the army. Today, Haiti remains very vulnerable to natural disasters on its territory.

Read more: Haiti crisis highlights the need for a strong civil service

The succession of unstable governments over the past four decades hasn't helped either. These have significantly weakened the central administration, which then had little capacity to manage and control the country's territory.

For example, Port-au-Prince, a city originally designed for 3,000 people, was home to almost a million. Ten years later, we can only note that nothing has really changed in this respect. The Haitian state has shown itself incapable of decentralizing and developing its rural environment, which is experiencing an exodus year after year.

The capital and its surroundings are overpopulated and there are no real urban planning policies to impose standards and counter the anarchic constructions that proliferate the city. In this context, any major earthquake could only lead to the disastrous consequences that the country has experienced.

Another problem: in 2010, the Haitian public administration, far from having been reformed, was mainly concerned with collecting taxes on property without any real control over the territory.

The combination of overcrowding, chaotic urban development without a regional development policy, a flagrant lack of resources to intervene on its territory and the skills of its staff has meant that the Haitian public administration has never been able to anticipate the impacts of an earthquake.

AP Photo/Rodrigo And, File

Disorganized international aid

The weakness of the Haiti's public administration is compounded by the disorganization of international aid. Following a decree adopted in 1989 (which amended Article 13 of the 1982 law governing NGOs), responsibility for the co-ordination and supervision of NGO activities on the territory of the Republic of Haiti was entrusted to the Ministry of Planning and External Co-operation (MPCE).

In the aftermath of the earthquake, many studies reported on the presence of thousands of NGOs in the country. However, on its official list, the MPCE recognized barely 300 of them. It can therefore be concluded that the majority of these NGOs were operating in near obscurity.

Several studies have also shown, and we've seen on the ground, that the international community's assistance deployed immediately after the earthquake failed to meet a humanitarian challenge of such magnitude. There was no co-ordination in the interventions of friendly countries in order to optimize the efforts on behalf of the victims. There was great humanitarian disorganization and even a failure on the part of the international community, which had to improvise ineffectively to co-manage a disaster.

With a presence on the ground as early as 2012, we've observed that the majority of NGOs arrived in Haiti not to respond to a need expressed by the Haitian government, but rather to serve their own interests, as Dr. Joanne Liu, former president of Médecins Sans Frontières, reports.

There was no co-ordination between them, nor was there any co-ordination with the government. Furthermore, although UN forces deployed with MINUSTAH were present in Haiti, the forces were fragmented and operated under often incompatible models and values. Aid was inefficient, even harmful. The scandal of the reintroduction of cholera in Haiti underscores this reality.

AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos, File

Post-earthquake

Despite the fact that billions of dollars had been spent in the country, according to international reports, five years after the disaster, debris was still lying in the streets, thousands of people were still living in refugee camps and the majority of public buildings had not been rebuilt.

All of this testifies to the serious difficulties of co-ordination on the ground.

A decade later, the challenges are still immense for Haiti since it must develop construction policies that fit into a certain vision of urban planning. It must also rebuild the archives of public institutions that have been damaged or have disappeared, and it must help post-earthquake generations learn from the past, develop and implement an emergency plan for natural disasters, and design and implement policies and spaces adapted for people with disabilities.

Today, international development practices are seen to be based on a wealth accumulation perspective, giving priority to private sector interests. Canada's initiatives to direct its aid to the development of the mining sector and free-trade zones in Haiti are evidence of this.

What's more, Canada's decision to freeze funding for new projects in Haiti raises several questions: why leave Haiti in such a difficult position? Is the decision intended to make the Haitian state face up to its responsibilities or simply to take the Canadian government off the hook for the failure of international aid in that country? Is this an admission of powerlessness in the face of the profound institutional weaknesses in Haiti?

As we look back at Jan. 12, 2010, we raise a question as troubling as it is fundamental: Has the Haitian government and the international community really learned any lessons from the earthquake?

[ Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation's newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today's news, every day. ]

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A decade after the earthquake, Haiti still struggles to recover

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More than 300,000 people were killed, several hundred thousand were injured and nearly 1.5 million were left homeless when magnitude 7 earthquake hit Haiti on Jan. 12, 2010. On that day, the workspace that my colleague Joseph Jr Clorméus, who co-authored this article, usually occupied at the Ministry of National Education completely collapsed.

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Covid-19: Traficantes impõem recolher obrigatório em favelas perante inação do governo - Mundo - SÁBADO

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Milicianos e traficantes do estado brasileiro do Rio de Janeiro impuseram um toque de recolher obrigatório às comunidades de favelas daquela região de forma a travar a disseminação do novo coronavírus, segundo o portal de notícias G1.

De acordo com moradores das favelas de Muzema, Rio das Pedras e Tijuquinha, localizadas na zona oeste do Rio de Janeiro, as mensagens foram enviadas pelas redes sociais, e indicam à população que não saia de casa depois das 20h00 (hora local, 23h00 em Lisboa).

"Atenção todos os moradores de Rio das Pedras, Muzema e Tijuquinha! Toque de recolher a partir de hoje 20h00. Quem for visto na rua após este horário vai aprender a respeitar o próximo!", diz a mensagem divulgada pelo G1.

"Queremos o melhor para população. Se o governo não tem capacidade de dar um jeito, o crime organizado resolve", indica uma outra mensagem.

Até ao último domingo, o Rio de Janeiro tinha 186 casos de coronavírus, dos 1.546 registados em todo o Brasil, sendo o segundo estado mais atingido, atrás de São Paulo.

A covid-19 já chegou também às favelas, com a comunidade da Cidade de Deus, também na zona oeste do Rio de Janeiro, a registar no último fim de semana o seu primeiro caso positivo, situação que preocupa moradores e especialistas, devido à falta de recursos básicos para enfrentar a pandemia.

"A chegada do vírus nas favelas deveria ser alvo de um planeamento estruturado por parte da prefeitura e dos governos estadual e federal porque, se tudo nos falta, a tendência é que isto se alastre de forma a que o controlo, que as entidades governamentais estão a tentar manter, seja perdido", afirmou à agência Lusa Jota Marques, morador da Cidade de Deus.

A falta de água canalizada está entre os problemas enumerados, o que inviabiliza os mínimos da higiene básica, como uma eficaz lavagem de mãos.

"O nosso grande temor, pensando nas periferias do Brasil, é a falta de saneamento básico, que vai prejudicar não apenas a prática de prevenção, mas também prejudicar na hora de diminuir o contágio. Por exemplo, aqui, na região da Cidade de Deus, não há água canalizada. Como é que os moradores não infetados poderão fazer a sua higiene pessoal, e como é que os infetados se vão cuidar neste processo?", questionou Jota Marques.

Apesar do isolamento domiciliar ter sido recomendado como medida preventiva contra o novo coronavírus, Jota Marques, que é também conselheiro tutelar daquela região, assegura que tal é impossível para a maioria dos moradores de favelas, que vivem em "barracos" de reduzidas dimensões.

"Impossível ficarem em isolamento. Estamos a falar de regiões onde as pessoas vivem em barracos, onde não tem como se isolar. Estamos a falar de um barraco onde, num só espaço, está a cozinha, a sala de estar e o quarto. Quase ninguém mora sozinho. Há, no mínimo, dois a três membros em cada família, a conviver num espaço que é do tamanho de um quarto de uma casa normal", descreveu Marques à Lusa.

O novo coronavírus, responsável pela pandemia da covid-19, já infetou mais de 345 mil pessoas em todo o mundo, das quais mais de 15.100 morreram.

Depois de surgir na China, em dezembro, o surto espalhou-se por todo o mundo, o que levou a Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) a declarar uma situação de pandemia.

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Covid-19: Traficantes impõem recolher obrigatório em favelas perante inação do governo

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Milicianos e traficantes do estado brasileiro do Rio de Janeiro impuseram um toque de recolher obrigatório às comunidades de favelas daquela região de forma a travar a disseminação do novo coronavírus, segundo o portal de notícias G1.

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The Amazon rainforest is being burned

Leo Correa/AP/Shutterstock

Deforestation of the Amazon has continued at record levels this year, leading observers to warn that the rainforest is disappearing faster than ever before.

Under Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, who has encouraged deforesting parts of the Amazon for development, the area of rainforest cleared last year jumped by 29.5 per cent to its highest level in a decade.

With official data from Brazil's space agency INPE now in for the whole of January and February 2020, it is clear there has been no let-up for the Amazon. A 470-square-kilometre area - ...

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Amazon deforestation looks set to hit a record high in 2020

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Deforestation of the Amazon has continued at record levels this year, leading observers to warn that the rainforest is disappearing faster than ever before. Under Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, who has encouraged deforesting parts of the Amazon for development, the area of rainforest cleared last year jumped by 29.5 per cent to its highest level in a decade.

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Salford may have been fondly dubbed a "dirty old town" by folk singer Ewan MacColl and depicted as full of smoky chimneys by LS Lowry, but new research has crowned it the greenest place to live in England and Wales.

The city, part of Greater Manchester, is more sustainable than places such as Brighton, where Caroline Lucas is Britain's only Green party MP, and Bristol, a former European Green Capital, according to a study to be released this week by the Centre for Thriving Places.

In this socialist stronghold of the north-west - represented by the Momentum-backed Labour leadership hopeful Rebecca Long-Bailey - the leftwing council, run by Labour mayor Paul Dennett, is building the most energy-efficient new homes in England and Wales and preserving and creating more green space than any other council.

The city also has lower-than-average CO ₂ emissions, lower-than-average energy consumption levels and higher-than-average recycling rates.

"There have been a lot of innovative things going on in the north-west in terms of participatory democracy, community wealth-building and the environment," said Liz Zeidler, chief executive of the Centre for Thriving Places. "Places such as Salford seem to be quite cleverly absorbing these ideas. Its leaders have been willing to try something new and now they are starting to see the results."

Dennett said Salford had invested millions in green infrastructure and had embraced the decarbonisation agenda long before it was in vogue. "Our carbon management programme was put in place in 2009 and has helped to save 14,000 tonnes of CO ₂," he said. "And 60% of Salford is now green space."

According to the study, the least sustainable area in England and Wales is Stockton-on-Tees in the north-east. It has well over double the average CO ₂ emissions, nearly half the average recycling rates, and fewer trees than most authorities.

The full analysis - which rates 363 local authorities on 60 indicators covering sustainability, equality and local conditions - reveals that Richmond upon Thames offers the best quality of life overall. Residents of the affluent south London borough have the best mental and physical health, along with the most trusting neighbours.

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Stockton-on-Tees, which according to the study is the least sustainable area in England and Wales. Photograph: Henry Clare/PA

Stockton-on-Tees also has one of the worst scores overall. Its poorest children make less progress than those living in most other areas, while the scale of its health challenges dwarfs those found elsewhere. It has the largest life-expectancy gap in England and Wales, with people in deprived areas dying on average more than 16 years earlier than in the better-off parts of the borough.

One of the most culturally diverse areas in the study, Brent in north-west London, was found to be the most egalitarian place in England and Wales. Its council chamber is fully representative of its black and minority ethic population - an achievement matched by only 21 other councils. It has more than half the average gender pay gap, with children from disadvantaged backgrounds standing a better chance of doing well at school and getting good jobs than those in 80% of areas in England.

Brent said its good schools enabled equality of opportunity. "The other secret to our success is that we know that diversity is our greatest strength, so we proudly celebrate it," said its deputy council leader, Margaret McLennan.

Stockton-on-Tees said it accepted it had problems, but the study did not reflect the area's many strengths. "We're the economic powerhouse of the Tees Valley, contributing about a third of its economic output, and we're home to internationally recognised brands," said Bob Cook, leader of the council. "But we do, of course, have our challenges. We have significant areas of deprivation and serious health inequalities."

He added that the area's energy-intensive industries were meeting government emissions targets, and its weekly bin collections were popular with residents.
Topics

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Salford beats Brighton and Bristol to title of 'greenest place to live'

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Salford may have been fondly dubbed a "dirty old town" by folk singer Ewan MacColl and depicted as full of smoky chimneys by LS Lowry, but new research has crowned it the greenest place to live in England and Wales.

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Climate change: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

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The UK cannot go climate neutral much before 2050 unless people stop flying and eating red meat almost completely, a report says.

But it warns that the British public do not look ready to take such steps and substantially change their lifestyle.

The report challenges the views of campaign group Extinction Rebellion.

It believes the UK target of climate neutrality by 2050 will result in harm to the climate.

The claim comes from the government-funded research group Energy Systems Catapult, whose computer models are used by the Committee on Climate Change, which advises government.

Its report says: "A number of groups have called for net zero to be accelerated to 2025, 2030 or 2040.

"Achieving net zero significantly earlier than 2050 in our modelling exceeds even our most speculative measures, with rates of change for power, heat and road transport that push against the bounds of plausibility."

Glimmer of good news

But the authors offer some optimism too. They calculate that the UK can cut emissions fast enough to be climate neutral by 2050 - but only if ministers act much more quickly.

They say the government urgently needs to invest in three key technologies: carbon capture and storage with bioenergy crops; hydrogen for a wide variety of uses; and advanced nuclear power.

The report modelled options for society to 2050. It concluded that if decisions are made early, the cost of climate neutrality can be held down to 1-2% of national wealth - GDP.

Scenarios rely on some technologies still in their infancy, which will be controversial. For instance, it draws heavily on burning energy crops, capturing the carbon emissions and burying them underground.

It says hydrogen use will need to grow to supply industry, heat and heavy transport.

Electricity generation will need to double with heavy reliance on solar power and offshore wind.

Controversially, it calls for small, modular nuclear reactors to support three-quarters of heating in cities through district heating systems. Modular reactors are much smaller than conventional reactors, and brought to a site in a kit of parts to be assembled.

It warns that livestock production for dairy and meat may need to be cut by 50% rather than the 20% currently envisaged by the Committee on Climate Change. And people will need to eat less meat and dairy by the same amount.

The report's author, Scott Milne, said: "Whichever pathway the UK takes, innovation, investment and inducements across low-carbon technology, land use and lifestyle are essential to achieve net zero.

"And there are massive economic opportunities for the UK to lead the world in these areas."

However, the report warns that the public do not appear ready for substantial lifestyle changes. It warns, for instance, that if people's homes are better insulated, they may choose to spend the same amount on heating to deliver a warmer home.

It says: "Early evidence suggests a general willingness to adopt new technologies (such as new heating or mobility) as long as these can deliver the same experiences as before.

"Conversely, approaching the subject of dietary change or aviation often elicits a more resistant and emotional response."

Some experts will be critical of the report's expectation that new technologies such as carbon capture and storage will be rapidly adopted.

A recent report said it was unrealistic to expect that carbon capture and hydrogen will develop fast enough to achieve the net zero target.

A spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion told BBC News: "The global response to coronavirus shows we can radically address crises if we put our minds to it. Meanwhile, the net zero date has not been put to the people of the UK.

"The science tells us that net zero by 2050 means a hell of a lot worse than giving up flying and red meat - people are dying now around the world as you read this due to governmental inaction."

The report was not welcomed by the National Beef Association.

Its spokesman Neil Shand told BBC News that scientific studies typically underestimate the role of livestock in capturing carbon in the soil.

He said: "It does seem rather unfortunate that the report links beef production and aviation in this way.

"The timing is more than a little ironic; the shops are full of people panic-buying and it seems clear that the nation's food sector relies very heavily on imports, and the associated transport that brings them into the UK.

"Food produced on their own doorstep, using a system where animal and non-animal foods are symbiotic requires very little air travel, and makes excellent use of the resources our beautiful country provides. Foreign travel does not have the same necessity."

In addition, a report from a group of environmentally-minded business leaders has called on the government to show increased ambition and delivery of carbon-cutting policies to get the UK on track to meet climate goals.

It said there was an urgent need especially for policies to bring low-carbon heating to people's homes.

Follow Roger on Twitter.

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UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

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The UK cannot go climate neutral much before 2050 unless people stop flying and eating red meat almost completely, a report says. But it warns that the British public do not look ready to take such steps and substantially change their lifestyle. The report challenges the views of campaign group Extinction Rebellion.

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Climate change is set to cause major changes across the world: sea levels will rise, food production could fall and species may be driven to extinction.
The UN has warned that the world needs to limit climate change to below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. But scientists say that keeping to the 1.5C target will require "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes" in all aspects of society.

So how warm has the world got and what can we do about it?

1. The world has been getting hotter

The world is now nearly one degree warmer than it was before widespread industrialisation, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The global average temperature for the first 10 months of 2018 was 0.98C above the levels of 1850-1900, according to five independently maintained global data sets.

(If you can't see this chart tap or click here )

The 20 warmest years on record have been in the past 22 years, with 2015-2018 making up the top four, the WMO says.

If this trend continues, temperatures may rise by 3-5C by 2100.

One degree may not sound like much, but, according to the IPCC, if countries fail to act, the world will face catastrophic change - sea levels will rise, ocean temperatures and acidity will increase and our ability to grow crops, such as rice, maize and wheat, would be in danger.

2. The year 2019 set all sorts of records

Almost 400 all-time high temperatures were set in the northern hemisphere during the summer of 2019.

Records were broken in 29 countries for the period between 1 May and 30 August. A third of the all-time high temperatures were in Germany, followed by France and the Netherlands.

These European records were set amid heatwaves across the continent that sent temperatures soaring in June and July.

Over the period shown on the map below (May to August 2019), the yellow dots show where a heat record was broken on a given date, pink indicates places that were the hottest they had ever been in the month shown, and dark red represents a place that was the hottest since records began.

More than 30 all-time records were broken in the US, according to the Berkeley Earth data. In Japan, where 11 people died as a result of the summer heatwave, 10 all-time temperature highs were set.

3. We are not on track to meet climate change targets

If we add up all the promises to cut emissions made by countries that are party to the Paris climate agreement, the world would still warm by more than 3C by the end of this century.

Over the past few years, climate scientists have shifted the definition of what they believe is the "safe" limit of climate change.

For decades, researchers argued the global temperature rise must be kept below 2C by the end of this century to avoid the worst impacts.

Countries signing up to the Paris agreement pledged to keep temperatures "well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5C".

But scientists now agree that we actually need to keep temperature rises to below 1.5C.

4. The biggest emitters are China and the US

The countries emitting the most greenhouse gases by quite a long way are China and the US. Together they account for more than 40% of the global total, according to 2017 data from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

US environmental policy has shifted under the Trump administration, which has pursued a pro-fossil fuels agenda.

President Donald Trump has begun the process of withdrawing the US from the Paris climate change agreement.

Mr Trump said the deal struck in 2015 would disadvantage US businesses and workers.

5. Urban areas are particularly under threat

Almost all (95%) of cities facing extreme climate risks are in Africa or Asia, a report by risk analysts Verisk Maplecroft has found.

And it's the faster-growing cities that are most at risk, including megacities like Lagos in Nigeria and Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Some 84 of the world's 100 fastest-growing cities face "extreme" risks from rising temperatures and extreme weather brought on by climate change.

6. Arctic sea ice is also in danger

The extent of Arctic sea ice has dropped in recent years. It reached its lowest point on record in 2012.

Sea ice has been reducing for decades, with melting accelerating since the early 2000s, according to the UK Parliament's Environmental Audit Committee.

The Arctic Ocean may be ice-free in the summer as soon as the 2050s, unless emissions are reduced, the committee has said.

The extent of Arctic sea ice in 2019 was tied with 2007 and 2016 as the second lowest on record. The maximum extent, reached in March 2019, was tied with 2007 as the seventh lowest in the 40-year satellite record.

7. We can all do more to help

While governments need to make big changes - individuals can play a role too.

Scientists say we all have to make major changes to our lifestyles, in order to avoid severely damaging climate change.

The IPCC says we need to: buy less meat, milk, cheese and butter; eat more locally sourced seasonal food - and throw less of it away; drive electric cars but walk or cycle short distances; take trains and buses instead of planes; use videoconferencing instead of business travel; use a washing line instead of a tumble dryer; insulate homes; demand low carbon in every consumer product.

One of the biggest ways to reduce your environmental impact on the planet is to modify your diet to include less meat - according to recent studies .

Scientists say we ought to eat less meat because of the carbon emissions the meat industry produces, as well as other negative environmental impacts.

A recent study published in the journal Science highlighted a massive variation in the environmental impact of producing the same food.

For example, beef cattle raised on deforested land produces 12 times more greenhouse gas emissions than those reared on natural pastures.

Crucially, the analysis shows that meat with the lowest environmental impact still creates more greenhouse gas emissions than growing vegetables and cereal crops in the least environmentally-friendly way.

But as well as altering our diets, research suggests that farming practices need to change significantly to benefit the environment.
By Nassos Stylianou, Clara Guibourg, Daniel Dunford, Lucy Rodgers, David Brown and Paul Rincon Correction 24 February 2020: A previous version of this story said that "the single biggest way to reduce your environmental impact on the planet is to modify your diet to include less meat". This has been amended to now refer to "one of the biggest," taking account of different individual lifestyles and circumstances. We have also replaced the in-line link with a research article on 'The global impacts of food production'.

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Climate change: Where we are in seven charts and what you can do to help

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Climate change is set to cause major changes across the world: sea levels will rise, food production could fall and species may be driven to extinction. The UN has warned that the world needs to limit climate change to below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

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Ecosystems the size of Amazon 'can collapse within decades'

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Even large ecosystems the size of the Amazon rainforest can collapse in a few decades, according to a study that shows bigger biomes break up relatively faster than small ones.

The research reveals that once a tipping point has been passed, breakdowns do not occur gradually like an unravelling thread, but rapidly like a stack of Jenga bricks after a keystone piece has been dislodged.

The authors of the study, published on Tuesday in the Nature Communications journal, said the results should warn policymakers they had less time than they realised to deal with the multiple climate and biodiversity crises facing the world.

To examine the relationship between an ecosystem's size and the speed of its collapse, the authors looked at 42 previous cases of "regime shift". This is the term used to describe a change from one state to another - for example, the collapse of fisheries in Newfoundland, the death of vegetation in the Sahel, desertification of agricultural lands in Niger, bleaching of coral reefs in Jamaica, and the eutrophication of Lake Erhai in China.

They found that bigger and more complex biomes were initially more resilient than small, biologically simpler systems. However, once the former hit a tipping point, they collapse relatively faster because failures repeat throughout their modular structure. As a result, the bigger the ecosystem, the harder it is likely to fall.

Based on their statistical analysis, the authors estimate an ecosystem the size of the Amazon (approximately 5.5m km ²) could collapse in approximately 50 years once a tipping point had been reached. For a system the size of the Caribbean coral reefs (about 20,000 km ²), collapse could occur in 15 years once triggered.

The paper concludes: "We must prepare for regime shifts in any natural system to occur over the 'human' timescales of years and decades, rather than multigenerational timescales of centuries and millennia.

"Humanity now needs to prepare for changes in ecosystems that are faster than we previously envisaged through our traditional linear view of the world, including across Earth's largest and most iconic ecosystems, and the social-ecological systems that they support."

The paper says this could be the case in Australia where the recent Australian bushfires followed protracted periods of drought and may indicate a shift to a drier ecosystem.

Scientists were already aware that systems tended to decline much faster than they grew but the new study quantifies and explains this trend.

"What is new is that we are showing this is part of a wider story. The larger the system, the greater the fragility and the proportionately quicker collapses," John Dearing, professor in physical geography at the University of Southampton and lead author of the study, said.

"What we are saying is don't be taken in by the longevity of these systems just because they may have been around for thousands, if not millions, of years - they will collapse much more rapidly than we think."

Dearing said he was concerned that one of the possible implications of the study was that complete destruction of the Amazon could occur within his grandchildren's lifetimes.

"This is a paper that is satisfying from a scientific point of view, but worrying from a personal point of view. You'd rather not come up with such a set of results," he said.

A separate study last week warned the Amazon could shift within the next decade into a source of carbon emissions rather than a sink, because of damage caused by loggers, farmers and global heating.

Experts said the new findings should be a spur to action.

"I think the combination of theory, modelling and observations is especially persuasive in this paper, and should alert us to risks from human activities that perturb the large and apparently stable ecosystems upon which we depend," said Georgina Mace, professor of biodiversity and ecosystems at University College London, who was not involved in the studies.

"There are effective actions that we can take now, such as protecting the existing forest, managing it to maintain diversity, and reducing the direct pressures from logging, burning, clearance and climate change."

These views were echoed by Ima Vieira, an ecologist at Museu Emílio Goeldi in Belém, Brazil. "This is a very important paper. For Brazil to avoid the ecosystem collapse modelled in this study, we need to strengthen governance associated to imposing heavy fines on companies with dirty supply chains, divestment strategies targeting key violators and enforcement of existing laws related to environmental crimes. And we have to be quick."

However, the methodology was not universally accepted. Erika Berenguer, a senior research associate at the University of Oxford and Lancaster University, said the regime shifts paper relied too much on data from lakes and oceans to be useful as an indicator of what would happen to rainforests.

"While there is no doubt the Amazon is at great risk and that a tipping point is likely, such inflated claims do not help either science or policy making," she said.

The authors said their study was not a forecast about a specific region but a guide to the speed at which change could occur.

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Ecosystems the size of Amazon 'can collapse within decades'

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Even large ecosystems the size of the Amazon rainforest can collapse in a few decades, according to a study that shows bigger biomes break up relatively faster than small ones. The research reveals that once a tipping point has been passed, breakdowns do not occur gradually like an unravelling thread, but rapidly like a stack of Jenga bricks after a keystone piece has been dislodged.

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David Attenborough calls for ban on 'devastating' deep sea mining

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Sir David Attenborough has urged governments to ban deep sea mining, following a study warning of "potentially disastrous" risks to the ocean's life-support systems if it goes ahead.

The study, by Fauna and Flora International (FFI), warns proposed plans to mine the seabed could cause significant loss of biodiversity, disruption of the ocean's "biological pump", and the loss of microbes important for storing carbon. The process, requiring machines operating thousands of metres under the sea, could also create plumes of sediment that smother areas far from the mining sites and kill wildlife.

Dozens of exploratory licences, two of which are sponsored by the UK, have already been granted for huge tracts of the sea bed, ahead of a race to mine commercially for ores and minerals such as copper, used in mobile phones and batteries. But the rules to govern the responsible exploitation of this global resource are not finalised - they are expected to be completed at a meeting in July at the UN International Seabed Authority.

Attenborough, the vice president of FFI, said deep sea mining could create a "devastating series of impacts" threatening processes critical to the health and function of the oceans, and called on governments to be guided by scientists.

"Fauna & Flora International is calling on global governments to put in place a moratorium on all deep sea mining - a call I wholeheartedly support," Attenborough said.

In a foreword to the report, Attenborough said it was "beyond reason" for countries to consider the destruction of deep sea places before they have understood them or the role they play in the health of the planet.

Attenborough said: "The rush to mine this pristine and unexplored environment risks creating terrible impacts that cannot be reversed. We need to be guided by science when faced with decisions of such great environmental consequence."

FFI warned that human activity was already putting a huge strain on the oceans, which have absorbed a third of our carbon emissions and 93% of the extra heat trapped by the rising concentration of greenhouse gases.

Oceans are becoming more acidic because of the carbon dioxide dissolving into them, fisheries are under pressure as a result of over-exploitation and there are hundreds of huge "dead zones", it said.
In too deep: why the seabed should be off-limits to mining companies | Chris Packham
Pippa Howard, director at FFI and lead author of the report, called for a moratorium on deep sea mining. She said: "The conclusions we have come to after extensive study could hardly be more troubling.

"From methane release to disruption of the ocean's life-support systems and the destruction of unstudied ecosystems, the risks of deep sea mining are numerous and potentially disastrous."

Louise Casson, of Greenpeace's Protect the Oceans campaign, said the UK government's holding of exploration contracts for deep sea mining was at odds with its position as a "global ocean champion".

Casson said: "The UK government now has a choice to make: listen to industry and press ahead with this dangerous new practice, or listen to scientific warnings, public concern and the creator of Blue Planet himself and ban deep sea mining."

A government spokesman said: "The UK continues to press for the highest international environmental standards, including on deep sea mineral extraction.

"While we have sponsored two exploration licences, these allow only for marine research to understand the effects of deep sea mining.

"We will not issue a single exploitation licence without a full assessment of the environmental impact."
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David Attenborough calls for ban on 'devastating' deep sea mining

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Sir David Attenborough has urged governments to ban deep sea mining, following a study warning of "potentially disastrous" risks to the ocean's life-support systems if it goes ahead. The study, by Fauna and Flora International (FFI), warns proposed plans to mine the seabed could cause significant loss of biodiversity, disruption of the ocean's "biological pump", and the loss of microbes important for storing carbon.

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Climate crisis blamed for rains and floods that have killed 150 in Brazil

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About 150 people have been killed or are missing following record-breaking heavy rains, landslides and flooding in three Brazilian states this year.

Scientists say global heating is contributing to more "extreme rainfall" events in the country, and warned that such disasters could become "the new normal".

Monsoon rains kill Brazilians every summer, with floodwaters filling streets and landslides afflicting poorer communities and favelas built on steep hillsides, often without proper drainage or sanitation.

But global temperatures have climbed steeply since the 1980s, and a warming atmosphere causes more evaporation, making more water available for precipitation.

Official data sent to the Guardian showed "extreme rainfall events" - when more than 80mm or 100mm falls within 24 hours - have soared over the past 30 years in the capitals of the south-eastern states of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte, where the deadly rains happened.

Scientists blame a combination of growing cities and climate breakdown.

"We are seeing more and more extreme events happening in big and important cities," said Tercio Ambrizzi, a professor of climatology at the University of São Paulo. "There is a relationship with the increase in average global temperatures."

In Guarujá, a coastal town 25 miles from São Paulo, 282mm fell in just 12 hours last week - more than the total expected for the entire month of March.

"I never saw a day it rained like that," said Rafael Soares, 22, a tyre factory worker from the town's hillside Barreira do João Guarda community, hit by a landslide on 3 March that buried dozens of houses, killing 18 people and leaving dozens still missing.

Soares heard a deafening boom at about 1am and ran up the hill behind his house to find that part of his community had been buried.

"You couldn't see anything, just earth and mud," he said, describing "just hearing cries, people crying, not knowing what to do. There was no light, there was nothing."

He spent days with neighbours and rescue workers digging survivors and the dead out of the earth and was housed with hundreds of other residents in a local school before being allowed to go home.

Days earlier, five people died during heavy rains across Rio de Janeiro. One man drowned when the Acari favela in north Rio was flooded. Bruna Aguiar, an activist from the favela's Fala Akari collective, said rains have worsened there since a flood in 2013.

"Older people talk about other floods in the 1970s, but nothing of this magnitude," she said.

According to data from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), one Rio de Janeiro weather station logged 134 extreme rainfalls from 1960 to 1990, and 221 from 1990 to 2020. A São Paulo weather station reported 15 from 1960 to 1990 and 44 since.

"There's clearly been an increase of extreme events in the south-east of Brazil," Ambrizzi said.

His own research from São Paulo - capital of the state where four people died in two days in February following heavy rainfall - backs this up.

Data from two weather stations in the city showed an increase in extreme rain events, according to a paper Ambrizzi and other scientists published in Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences last month. The dry season has begun extending from September into October in recent decades, they found.

"This, together with the inappropriate occupation of risky areas, such as slopes and banks of water-courses, leads to inundation, flooding and landslides," the paper said. "Changes in extremes can be partly due to natural climate variability but can also be related to global warming and/or urbanisation."

"Urban heat islands" created by the concrete and lack of vegetation in big cities increase temperatures, scientists said, and lack of permeable ground means more flooding. Global warming exacerbates the effect.

"When it is hotter, it rains more, and this gets worse if you have urban areas, areas of concrete and asphalt," said José Marengo from Brazil's National Centre for Monitoring and Alerts of Natural Disasters, and another of the paper's authors.

Not all scientists hold global warming responsible. Brazil's Space Research Institute said the rains were "meteorological phenomena typical of summer", and blamed them on the South Atlantic convergence zone - "a band of clouds that channels moisture from the Amazon and the tropical Atlantic Ocean" for three days or more, producing heavy rain and cold fronts. Nor has the rain increased everywhere: the north-east has seen more extreme droughts, it said.

"You can't generalise everything and blame global warming for everything," said Josélia Pegorim, a meteorologist from the Climatempo weather service, while noting summer's rains have been exceptional. "We are breaking records," she said.

In January, 59 people were killed during heavy rains in Minas Gerais state. According to Inmet data, its capital Belo Horizonte saw 30 "extreme rain" events from 1960 to 1990, and 52 from 1990 to 2020.

In Belo Horizonte, 13 people were killed in January, when 935mm of rain was recorded at one weather station - the highest level since 1910, and more than half the rainfall expected for the whole year.

Extreme rain events and consecutive droughts are likely to continue, said Carlos Nobre, one of Brazil's leading climate scientists and a senior researcher at the University of São Paulo's Institute for Advanced Studies. "This is the new normal," he said.
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Climate crisis blamed for rains and floods that have killed 150 in Brazil

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About 150 people have been killed or are missing following record-breaking heavy rains, landslides and flooding in three Brazilian states this year. Scientists say global heating is contributing to more "extreme rainfall" events in the country, and warned that such disasters could become "the new normal".

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Salford beats Brighton and Bristol to title of ‘greenest place to live’

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Salford may have been fondly dubbed a "dirty old town" by folk singer Ewan MacColl and depicted as full of smoky chimneys by LS Lowry, but new research has crowned it the greenest place to live in England and Wales.

The city, part of Greater Manchester, is more sustainable than places such as Brighton, where Caroline Lucas is Britain's only Green party MP, and Bristol, a former European Green Capital, according to a study to be released this week by the Centre for Thriving Places.

In this socialist stronghold of the north-west - represented by the Momentum-backed Labour leadership hopeful Rebecca Long-Bailey - the leftwing council, run by Labour mayor Paul Dennett, is building the most energy-efficient new homes in England and Wales and preserving and creating more green space than any other council.

The city also has lower-than-average CO ₂ emissions, lower-than-average energy consumption levels and higher-than-average recycling rates.

"There have been a lot of innovative things going on in the north-west in terms of participatory democracy, community wealth-building and the environment," said Liz Zeidler, chief executive of the Centre for Thriving Places. "Places such as Salford seem to be quite cleverly absorbing these ideas. Its leaders have been willing to try something new and now they are starting to see the results."

Dennett said Salford had invested millions in green infrastructure and had embraced the decarbonisation agenda long before it was in vogue. "Our carbon management programme was put in place in 2009 and has helped to save 14,000 tonnes of CO ₂," he said. "And 60% of Salford is now green space."

According to the study, the least sustainable area in England and Wales is Stockton-on-Tees in the north-east. It has well over double the average CO ₂ emissions, nearly half the average recycling rates, and fewer trees than most authorities.

The full analysis - which rates 363 local authorities on 60 indicators covering sustainability, equality and local conditions - reveals that Richmond upon Thames offers the best quality of life overall. Residents of the affluent south London borough have the best mental and physical health, along with the most trusting neighbours.

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Stockton-on-Tees, which according to the study is the least sustainable area in England and Wales. Photograph: Henry Clare/PA

Stockton-on-Tees also has one of the worst scores overall. Its poorest children make less progress than those living in most other areas, while the scale of its health challenges dwarfs those found elsewhere. It has the largest life-expectancy gap in England and Wales, with people in deprived areas dying on average more than 16 years earlier than in the better-off parts of the borough.

One of the most culturally diverse areas in the study, Brent in north-west London, was found to be the most egalitarian place in England and Wales. Its council chamber is fully representative of its black and minority ethic population - an achievement matched by only 21 other councils. It has more than half the average gender pay gap, with children from disadvantaged backgrounds standing a better chance of doing well at school and getting good jobs than those in 80% of areas in England.

Brent said its good schools enabled equality of opportunity. "The other secret to our success is that we know that diversity is our greatest strength, so we proudly celebrate it," said its deputy council leader, Margaret McLennan.

Stockton-on-Tees said it accepted it had problems, but the study did not reflect the area's many strengths. "We're the economic powerhouse of the Tees Valley, contributing about a third of its economic output, and we're home to internationally recognised brands," said Bob Cook, leader of the council. "But we do, of course, have our challenges. We have significant areas of deprivation and serious health inequalities."

He added that the area's energy-intensive industries were meeting government emissions targets, and its weekly bin collections were popular with residents.
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Salford beats Brighton and Bristol to title of 'greenest place to live'

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Salford may have been fondly dubbed a "dirty old town" by folk singer Ewan MacColl and depicted as full of smoky chimneys by LS Lowry, but new research has crowned it the greenest place to live in England and Wales.

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Climate change: Where we are in seven charts and what you can do to help - BBC News

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Climate change is set to cause major changes across the world: sea levels will rise, food production could fall and species may be driven to extinction.

The UN has warned that the world needs to limit climate change to below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. But scientists say that keeping to the 1.5C target will require "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes" in all aspects of society.

So how warm has the world got and what can we do about it?

The global average temperature for the first 10 months of 2018 was 0.98C above the levels of 1850-1900, according to five independently maintained global data sets.

(If you can't see this chart tap or click here)

The 20 warmest years on record have been in the past 22 years, with 2015-2018 making up the top four, the WMO says.

If this trend continues, temperatures may rise by 3-5C by 2100.

One degree may not sound like much, but, according to the IPCC, if countries fail to act, the world will face catastrophic change - sea levels will rise, ocean temperatures and acidity will increase and our ability to grow crops, such as rice, maize and wheat, would be in danger.

Almost 400 all-time high temperatures were set in the northern hemisphere during the summer of 2019.

Records were broken in 29 countries for the period between 1 May and 30 August. A third of the all-time high temperatures were in Germany, followed by France and the Netherlands.

These European records were set amid heatwaves across the continent that sent temperatures soaring in June and July.

Over the period shown on the map below (May to August 2019), the yellow dots show where a heat record was broken on a given date, pink indicates places that were the hottest they had ever been in the month shown, and dark red represents a place that was the hottest since records began.

More than 30 all-time records were broken in the US, according to the Berkeley Earth data. In Japan, where 11 people died as a result of the summer heatwave, 10 all-time temperature highs were set.

If we add up all the promises to cut emissions made by countries that are party to the Paris climate agreement, the world would still warm by more than 3C by the end of this century.

Over the past few years, climate scientists have shifted the definition of what they believe is the "safe" limit of climate change.

For decades, researchers argued the global temperature rise must be kept below 2C by the end of this century to avoid the worst impacts.

Countries signing up to the Paris agreement pledged to keep temperatures "well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5C".

But scientists now agree that we actually need to keep temperature rises to below 1.5C.

The countries emitting the most greenhouse gases by quite a long way are China and the US. Together they account for more than 40% of the global total, according to 2017 data from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

US environmental policy has shifted under the Trump administration, which has pursued a pro-fossil fuels agenda.

President Donald Trump has begun the process of withdrawing the US from the Paris climate change agreement.

Mr Trump said the deal struck in 2015 would disadvantage US businesses and workers.

And it's the faster-growing cities that are most at risk, including megacities like Lagos in Nigeria and Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Some 84 of the world's 100 fastest-growing cities face "extreme" risks from rising temperatures and extreme weather brought on by climate change.

The extent of Arctic sea ice has dropped in recent years. It reached its lowest point on record in 2012.

The Arctic Ocean may be ice-free in the summer as soon as the 2050s, unless emissions are reduced, the committee has said.

The extent of Arctic sea ice in 2019 was tied with 2007 and 2016 as the second lowest on record. The maximum extent, reached in March 2019, was tied with 2007 as the seventh lowest in the 40-year satellite record.

While governments need to make big changes - individuals can play a role too.

Scientists say we all have to make major changes to our lifestyles, in order to avoid severely damaging climate change.

The IPCC says we need to: buy less meat, milk, cheese and butter; eat more locally sourced seasonal food - and throw less of it away; drive electric cars but walk or cycle short distances; take trains and buses instead of planes; use videoconferencing instead of business travel; use a washing line instead of a tumble dryer; insulate homes; demand low carbon in every consumer product.

Scientists say we ought to eat less meat because of the carbon emissions the meat industry produces, as well as other negative environmental impacts.

For example, beef cattle raised on deforested land produces 12 times more greenhouse gas emissions than those reared on natural pastures.

Crucially, the analysis shows that meat with the lowest environmental impact still creates more greenhouse gas emissions than growing vegetables and cereal crops in the least environmentally-friendly way.

By Nassos Stylianou, Clara Guibourg, Daniel Dunford, Lucy Rodgers, David Brown and Paul Rincon

Correction 24 February 2020: A previous version of this story said that "the single biggest way to reduce your environmental impact on the planet is to modify your diet to include less meat". This has been amended to now refer to "one of the biggest," taking account of different individual lifestyles and circumstances. We have also replaced the in-line link with a research article on 'The global impacts of food production'.

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Climate change: Where we are in seven charts and what you can do to help

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We look at how hot the world has got and what can we can all do to tackle global warming.

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This illustration shows the impact of storm surge on coastal infrastructure and people with and without mangrove forests. Credit: © World Bank and Punto Aparte

The natural coastal defenses provided by mangrove forests reduce annual flooding significantly in critical hotspots around the world. Without mangroves, flood damages would increase by more than $65 billion annually, and 15 million more people would be flooded, according to a new study published March 10 in Scientific Reports.

"Mangroves provide incredibly effective natural defenses, reducing flood risk and damages," said Pelayo Menéndez, a postdoctoral fellow in the Institute of Marine Sciences at UC Santa Cruz and first author of the paper.

Climate change is increasing the risk of coastal flooding through its effects on sea level rise and the intensity of hurricanes. According to the study's authors, conservation and restoration of natural defenses such as mangroves offers cost-effective ways to mitigate and adapt to these changes.

The researchers provided high-resolution estimates of the economic value of mangrove forests for flood risk reduction across more than 700,000 kilometers of coastlines worldwide. They combined engineering and economic models to provide the best analyses of coastal flood risk and mangrove benefits. Their results show when, where, and how mangroves reduce flooding, and they identified innovative ways to fund mangrove protection using economic incentives, insurance, and climate risk financing.

"Now that we can value these flood protection benefits, it opens all kinds of new opportunities to fund mangrove conservation and restoration with savings for insurance premiums, storm rebuilding, climate adaptation, and community development," said coauthor Michael Beck, research professor in the Institute of Marine Sciences at UC Santa Cruz.

Mangrove forests occur in more than 100 countries globally. But many mangroves have been lost to aquaculture and coastal development, including the construction of public infrastructure such as ports and airports. In the early 1900s, vast areas of mangroves were filled throughout Florida, and whole developments were created where there once were islands and mangrove forests.

The loss of mangrove forests leads to increased coastal flooding, but these forests can be easily restored to make people and property safer, Beck said. Mangroves are resilient, and scientists know how to restore them-projects across Vietnam, Philippines, and Guyana have restored 100,000 hectares of mangroves.

"Mangroves are resilient and can grow like weeds, even around cities, if we give them half a chance," Beck said.

The new study rigorously valued the social and economic coastal protection benefits provided by mangroves globally. Many 20-kilometer coastal stretches, particularly those near cities, receive more than $250 million annually in flood protection benefits from mangroves.

The researchers are working with insurance companies, the World Bank, and conservation groups to use these results for risk reduction and conservation.

The study used the "expected damage function" approach, commonly used in engineering and insurance sectors to assess flooding. Hydrodynamic models were used to calculate the flooding that occurs globally under current and no- mangrove scenarios. By identifying the places where mangroves provide the greatest flood reduction benefits, this study informs policies for adaptation, sustainable development, and environmental restoration.

"We have combined rigorous tools from engineering and economics to show that mangroves really work for flood risk reduction," said coauthor Íñigo Losada, chief scientist at IH Cantabria.

More information: Scientific Reports (2020). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-61136-6

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Research shows mangrove conservation can pay for itself in flood protection

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The natural coastal defenses provided by mangrove forests reduce annual flooding significantly in critical hotspots around the world. Without mangroves, flood damages would increase by more than $65 billion annually, and 15 million more people would be flooded, according to a new study published March 10 in Scientific Reports.

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In the last decade, climate-fueled disasters were the No. 1 force behind internal displacement, according to a report from Oxfam, driving 20 million people from their homes a year.

While extreme weather events aren't exclusive to poorer or developing countries, they tend to affect them most severely.

NGO Germanwatch listed the 15 places most severely affected by extreme weather events between 1999 and 2018 in the 15th edition of its global climate risk index. The US commonwealth of Puerto Rico ranked at the top.

Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

Climate change is making extreme weather events more likely. As well as claiming countless lives, climate-fueled disasters beat conflict as the No. 1 driver behind internal displacement in the last 10 years, according to a report from Oxfam.

In the last decade, they forced roughly 20 million people from their homes on a yearly basis.

Today, it's three times likelier that you'll be internally displaced by a flood, a cyclone, or a wildfire than by conflict, Oxfam's report suggested.

While climate-related disasters aren't exclusive to poorer or developing countries, they tend to affect them most severely.

NGO Germanwatch's 15th edition of its global climate risk index underlined that poorer countries "are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change", with 80% of people displaced by extreme climatic events in the last decade based in Asia, home to over a third of the world's poorest people.

These are the 15 places that were most severely affected by extreme weather events between 1999 and 2018, taking into account the number of deaths caused and the economic impact for each state, according to Germanwatch.

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The 15 places most affected by extreme weather events in the last 20 years

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In the last decade, climate-fueled disasters were the No. 1 force behind internal displacement, according to a report from Oxfam, driving 20 million people from their homes a year. While extreme weather events aren't exclusive to poorer or developing countries, they tend to affect them most severely.

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A snowless winter around Europe – in pictures

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A snowless winter around Europe - in pictures

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Struggling ski resorts are having to get creative as slopes dry out during a record-breaking few months

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Killer heat: how a warming land is changing Australia forever

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Patricia and Norman Frank say extreme heat is changing the daily lives of people who have lived on the land for generations. The siblings are traditional owners from Tennant Creek in the heart of the Northern Territory outback.

The region around Tennant Creek is one of the hottest parts of Australia.

On the day the Guardian visited, it was 41C - but that's mild compared to the hottest day last year, which was four degrees higher. The average maximum temperature last year was 33.9C, up nearly a degree since 1970.

Patricia says it's now too hot for kids to play in the daytime. Instead, they wait until night to walk the streets.

Plants that were traditionally used for food either no longer grow, or grow poorly. "Animals are hibernating and aren't coming out in the right season," she says.

People used to live in tin sheds all year round, says Norman, but that is no longer possible.

"Today you go underneath a tin shed, you'll be fried."

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Killer heat: how a warming land is changing Australia forever

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Patricia and Norman Frank say extreme heat is changing the daily lives of people who have lived on the land for generations. The siblings are traditional owners from Tennant Creek in the heart of the Northern Territory outback. The region around Tennant Creek is one of the hottest parts of Australia.

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The race to save Polesia, Europe's secret Amazon

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On the banks of the Pripyat River lies a forest. On a crisp winter afternoon with an expansive blue sky above and hardened snow underfoot, the area is criss-crossed with the tracks of hares, deer and wolves. This is the south-eastern tip of Belarus, home to sleepy villages steeped in tradition, where people hang their Christmas trees upside-down from the ceiling and eat raw pig fat as an afternoon snack.

It is also part of Polesia, Europe's largest wilderness. More than two-thirds the size of the UK (18m hectares) and spread across Poland, Belarus, Ukraine and Russia, in spring this brittle landscape blooms into a labyrinth of gigantic bogs and swamps that supports large populations of wolves, bison, lynx and 1.5 million migratory birds. It has been called "the Amazon of Europe" for its extraordinary biodiversity.

Drone footage

However, unlike its Brazilian cousin, this region is not best-known for its wildlife but something more sinister. In April 1986 this forgotten part of the Soviet Union made headlines after reactor 4 of the Chernobyl power plant blew up. The explosion cast a long shadow over Belarus, which absorbed 70% of the escaped radiation, making it one of the most contaminated places on Earth.

Now another catastrophe could be about to befall its people: the construction of the E40 waterway, a 2,000km (1,240-mile) inland shipping route linking the Black Sea and the Baltic that would slice through the wilderness and involve dredging inside the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Experts say this will destroy vast ecosystems and stir up radioactive sludge that accumulated on the bottom of the river following the explosion, potentially contaminating the drinking water of millions of people.

Route - graphic

Dredging is due to start in the coming months following what campaigners have called a "quick and dirty" feasibility study that failed to consider the potentially catastrophic loss of biodiversity, radioactive contamination of drinking water, or loss of carbon from draining wetlands.

"We call E40 the death of Polesia. It would completely kill the south of the country," says Alexandre Vintchevski, founder of APB-BirdLife Belarus, the country's largest wildlife NGO. "Very few people know we have our own mini Amazon in Europe which is threatened by the construction of a waterway that no one has heard of."

Linking the Black and Baltic seas

The ambition to link the Black and Baltic seas dates back thousands of years. The ancient Greeks knew about this region and thought it must have been a sea because there was so much water, while Vikings paddled through Polesia's rivers during repeated attacks on Constantinople.

Small vessels can already pass through regulated stretches of the route but the rivers would need to be significantly broadened, with dams and dykes built and meanders cut off to allow ships at least 80 metres long to pass. The water will need to be at least 2.5 metres deep along the whole route. Up to seven million tonnes of cargo (mainly oil, fertilisers and wood) would pass through each year.

The E40 would stretch from Gdansk in Poland to Kherson in Ukraine, impacting five rivers en route: the Vistula, the Bug, the Pina, the Pripyat and the Dnieper, according to the feasibility study led by the Maritime Institute in Gdansk. At its closest it would pass only 2.5km from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor, potentially contaminating a reservoir downstream that provides water for 2.8 million people in Kyiv.

Comparison of project - graphic

The E40 project is being pushed by a coalition of organisations and government ministries from Belarus, Poland and Ukraine, which is being led by the the Dnieper-Bug Republican Unitary Maintenance and Construction Enterprise. A coalition of wildlife organisations led by APB-BirdLife Belarus, Frankfurt Zoological Society (FZS) and the National Ecological Centre of Ukraine is trying to stop the E40 going ahead.

One of Europe's least spoilt waterways

The Pripyat river is one of the least spoilt waterways in Europe and is an integral part of the biodiversity of Polesia. More than 90% of all birds in Belarus are found in Polesia (which comprises the southern third of the country) and there are a number of unique ecosystems, including floodplain oak groves and black alder forests. The waterway will have a direct impact on 12 internationally important wildlife reserves that protect a number of rare species. Bird Life estimates that three-quarters of the world's aquatic warblers are threatened by the construction of E40.

There are no other places in Europe where creatures can have so much space, yet because it was behind the iron curtain people don't know about it

Dr Helen Byron, Save Polesia campaign

The Mid Pripyat Reserve covers 120km of the river and is designed to protect the largest area of natural river floodplain in Europe. Along this stretch alone, 182 bird species have been recorded, many of which are rapidly losing habitats elsewhere.

One town within the reserve, Turov, has stood on the site for 1,000 years. The name is believed to originate from tur, the Slavic word for the aurochs, an ancestor of the cow which once would have been common here. These towns are the "bloodlands" of Europe where some of the worst crimes of the 20th century took place, including early Nazi pogroms. In Turov, 500 Jewish people were executed by the Nazis. Today it is home to about 3,000 people, has an ageing population and limited opportunities for the young. Like many towns in Belarus, it has kept Lenin-related street names, statues of Lenin and Soviet murals.

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A colourfully decorated log home in Kudrychy village near the town of Pinsk in Brest region. The village is located on the fringe of the Middle Pripyat Reserve

It is also one of Europe's most important sites for migratory birds, and just outside the town is a 144-hectare meadow managed by APB-BirdLife Belarus.

Over winter it looks like a large, unremarkable field where cattle are grazing. Networks of shrew tunnels and packs of stray dogs looking for trouble are the main signs of life. Volunteers regularly cut the scrub because wading birds like low grass as it allows nesting females to have a better view of potential danger.

In spring, the grassy island comes to life as it is swallowed up by the Pripyat. Globally threatened birds such as lesser white-fronted geese and black-tailed godwits flock here. More than 30 species of birds nest on Turov meadow, including half a million ruff, which have extraordinary mating rituals with some males disguising themselves as females to improve their chances of finding a partner. It has the highest breeding densities of northern lapwing and redshank in the world. There's an annual party in the village to celebrate the arrival of spring migrants and Vintchevski says international birders are also starting to show an interest in the region.

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A frozen lake in Pripyat National Park in Gomel Region

Four hours' drive downriver is the 190,000-hectare Pripyat National Park, nestled between the rivers Pripyat, Stviga and Ubort. It is visited by 256 bird species and contains rare alluvial oak forests unique to eastern Europe. The spring floods spread nutrients over the forest floor, making it particularly fertile. In winter the woods are still, but tracks in the snow show they are home to hares, wild boar and deer. It is completely silent except for the shrieks of siskin in the canopy.

Dr Helen Byron, the Save Polesia campaign coordinator at the FZS, explains that in spring the Pripyat floods in a similar way to the Amazon. "The rivers, the meanders and the marshes are all similar to those found in the Amazon. Its size and importance as a stopover for a large number of birds is widely unknown. There are no other places in Europe where creatures can have so much space, and yet because it was behind the iron curtain people just don't know about it," she says.

Drone footage

Climate change has already had an impact on the flooding, which means Polesia is becoming an increasingly fragile environment. Between 1955 and 1965, the river initially flooded in the first week of March but now it happens 16 days earlier. Fish are spawning between five and six days earlier. Winter floods are also becoming more frequent, with less flooding in spring, causing large areas of floodplain meadows, marshes, old lakes, wet oak and black alder forests to dry out.

Normally in January everything is frozen, but the last January snow fell in 2014, according to Vasil Blotski, who lives in the village of Verasnica with his wife Anastasia Blotskaja, head of Zhytkavichy APB-BirdLife Belarus branch. For Blotski, the river is a good place to take his two children fishing (they once caught a two-metre long catfish). He points out marks on the reeds that show the water level is more than two metres lower than it should be for this time of year.

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A fisherman makes holes in the ice on a lake in Pripyat National Park

Today he's caught a small perch, bream and roach in the space of 15 minutes which he'll cook for supper. He passes around chocolates and raw pig fat as he guts the fish. An eagle owl can be heard hooting in the background. "I'm worried that my children will no longer be able to enjoy this," he says. "The beauty of this local nature reserve is that it's unspoilt. It would be absolutely terrible if the E40 went ahead as I'm afraid we're going to lose this river and it will just become a channel for ships."

In addition to implications for Polesia, these wetlands are an important carbon sink, with 2,000 square kilometres of valuable carbon-sequestering peatland. According to FZS, if 50% of peatlands in Polesia turned to forest and 50% to grassland, it would release the same amount of carbon dioxide as one to two million extra cars on UK roads every year.

The effects of radiation

Further downstream, the Pripyat glides into the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Despite being the "worst nuclear disaster in history", the official death toll is 54. Researchers believe the actual number could be as high as 200,000. Sizeable amounts of radioactive contamination fell far from the exclusion zone and thousands of deaths have not been properly investigated.

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A neatly arranged pile of logs sits near the Pripyat River. Approximately 40% of Belarus, or about 8m hectares, is forested Photograph: Vincent Mundy/the Guardian

Polesia experienced a spike in cancers and birth defects following the disaster - the "Belarusian necklace" refers to the horizontal scar after surgery for thyroid cancer. Some estimates suggest one in five people in Belarus still live on contaminated land. Poor people have the greatest exposure to radiation because they eat locally sourced food such as wild mushrooms, berries and milk.

Dredging will stir up nucleoids that have been concentrated in the silt for decades

Prof Wladimir Wertelecki

However, for many people life carries on as normal. "Because radiation is invisible no one was scared of it. I went to the 1 May parades after the explosion and had no idea it had happened. We still have very little information - the only bits I get are from the TV," says Siarhei Stasienok, 65, a retired policeman who lives with his sister Tatiana, 64, in Kalinichy, just outside the exclusion zone.

"I was happy with Chernobyl and it would have been nice if it had exploded 10 or 20 years earlier. Everything was polluted after the explosion and money was put into the village to get better roads and clean water. We got new fences and there was generally a lot of investment in the village."

Stasienok has a 3D portrait of Lenin on the outside his house. Inside, doilies cover the windows and an old-fashioned rotary dial telephone sits on the windowsill. There is still no running water.

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Siarhei Stasienok, 65, approaches his home in Kalinichy, which is on the edge of the Chernobyl exclusion zone

Before Chernobyl there were 100 people living in Kalinichy, now there are 10. "People have been dying in this village but not until a few years after the explosion. We don't know if they were killed by the radiation because doctors are not allowed to officially put cancer on death certificates," he says. When someone dies their house is destroyed to prevent others moving in.

Stasienok had heard about the E40 plans but didn't know much more than that. "I only believe things I can see," he says.

The zone of exclusion should stay a zone of exclusion as it was designed ... these are long-lived con

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The race to save Polesia, Europe's secret Amazon

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On the banks of the Pripyat River lies a forest. On a crisp winter afternoon with an expansive blue sky above and hardened snow underfoot, the area is criss-crossed with the tracks of hares, deer and wolves.

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Morrison government to stop funding international collaboration on shift to zero emissions

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The Morrison government has told researchers at two of Australia's leading universities it will break a commitment to fund an international collaboration into what is required to shift to a zero emissions future.

The Australian-German Energy Transition Hub was announced in 2017 by then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and German chancellor Angela Merkel as a collaboration that would "help the technical, economic and social transition to new energy systems and a low emissions economy".

Based at the University of Melbourne, the Australian National University and three German institutions, it was to receive $4m over five years from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade as part of an eventual full cross-country funding of $20m.
Angus Taylor to announce shift in climate investment away from wind and solar
But in an email to staff on Friday afternoon, hub managers said the department had told them the government had decided it would "not follow through on its original commitment to fund the hub until 2022".

Government funding for the hub will end in June. Guardian Australia has been told there is $1.75m unpaid from the original agreement.

Some researchers said the decision made little sense given the hub's work included areas of government interest, particularly the development of a clean hydrogen industry. Other hub projects focus on energy storage, energy system modelling, plans for a just transition to clean energy and integrating solar energy into the grid.

Dylan McConnell, from the University of Melbourne's climate and energy college, said: "It's seems pretty hypocritical and counter-intuitive to be talking about this [hydrogen] and at the same time cutting funding."

The email said the department had indicated it hoped the hub would "continue to deliver" but it wanted to "refocus" resources "at a time of tight budgets". It said negotiations between the University of Melbourne and the department were under way, and the university was "looking at the options for different levels of support".

"Now, it is very early days to say what comes next," the email, by hub managing director Rebecca Burdon and co-directors, Malte Meinshausen and Frank Jotzo, said.

"We know that our contribution is filling a key niche in the Australian and international research landscape, on a topic that is continuing to gain in importance. And we know that we have a great group of researchers (you!) working on crucial issues, and that we've established powerful networks.

"We also know that industry and most state governments, and many parts of the federal government, are keenly interested in the energy transition. And we know that the bilateral relationship between Australia and Germany is and remains important, including on energy. We will need to recalibrate our activities in order to maximise opportunities for alternative funding."

The email said the department had noted in its reasoning that the German government had not continued funding for its side of the hub, which was for two and a half years. But it said the German institutes remained involved and were part of a separate upcoming major project funded by the government that was designed to advance the energy transition.

On Friday night, a department spokesperson said the goals of the hub were to strengthen Australia's bilateral relationship with Germany and better coordinate investments in research in energy transition. They said the remaining funding would be reallocated "to support our strategic priorities with Germany and other European partners more effectively, including potential collaboration with Germany on hydrogen".

Jotzo, Meinshausen and hub chairman Ross Garnaut declined to comment.
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Morrison government to stop funding international collaboration on shift to zero emissions

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The Morrison government has told researchers at two of Australia's leading universities it will break a commitment to fund an international collaboration into what is required to shift to a zero emissions future.

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This winter in Europe was hottest on record by far, say scientists

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This winter has been by far the hottest recorded in Europe, scientists have announced, with the climate crisis likely to have supercharged the heat.

The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) data dates back to 1855. It said the average temperature for December, January and February was 1.4C above the previous winter record, which was set in 2015-16. New regional climate records are usually passed by only a fraction of a degree. Europe's winter was 3.4C hotter than the average from 1981-2010.

The unseasonal heat has led to the failure of the ice-wine harvest in Germany and snow having to be imported for sporting events in Sweden and Russia. In Helsinki, Finland, the average temperature for January and February was more than 6C higher than the 1981-2010 average. In the UK, serious flooding is likely to have been made worse by higher temperatures, as in 2015.

"Whilst this winter was a truly extreme event in its own right, it is likely that these sorts of events have been made more extreme by the global warming trend," said Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S.

But he added: "Seeing such a warm winter is disconcerting, but does not represent a climate trend as such. Seasonal temperatures, especially outside the tropics vary significantly from year to year."

Nonetheless, scientists expect global heating to increase the number of temperature extremes and this is continuing around the world. Australia, which has suffered catastrophic bushfires, has just recorded its second-hottest summer on record, only a little cooler than the record set the year before.

In Antarctica, the temperature rose above 20C for the first time on record in February, almost a full degree higher than the previous record set in 1982.

Across the globe as a whole, 2019 was the second hottest on record for the planet's surface and both the past five years and the past decade were the hottest in 150 years. The previous hottest year was in 2016, but temperatures were boosted that year by a natural El Niño event. The heat in the world's oceans reached a new record level in 2019, showing "irrefutable and accelerating" heating of the planet, according to scientists.

In the UK, the Met Office said in January that a series of high temperature records were broken in 2019 as a consequence of the climate crisis. This included the hottest temperature ever recorded in the country: 38.7C on 25 July in Cambridge.

2020 is a crucial year in the fight to halt the climate emergency and prevent the damaging impacts worsening. The UK is hosting a vital UN climate summit in November at which the world's nations must dramatically increase their pledges to cut carbon emissions to avoid a disastrous 3-4C rise in global temperatures.
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This winter in Europe was hottest on record by far, say scientists

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This winter has been by far the hottest recorded in Europe, scientists have announced, with the climate crisis likely to have supercharged the heat. The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) data dates back to 1855. It said the average temperature for December, January and February was 1.4C above the previous winter record, which was set in 2015-16.

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The government must abandon its fossil fuel power projects. If not, we’ll sue

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No longer should our survival be an afterthought. If we are to withstand the climate crisis, every decision should begin with the question of what the planet can endure. This means that any discussion about new infrastructure should begin with ecological constraints. The figures are stark. A paper published in Nature last year showed that existing energy infrastructure, if it is allowed to run to the end of its natural life, will produce around 660 gigatonnes of CO2. Yet, to stand a reasonable chance of preventing more than 1.5°C of global heating, we can afford to release, in total, no more than 580 gigatonnes.

In other words, far from building new fossil power plants, the survival of a habitable planet means retiring the damaging projects that have already been built. Electricity plants burning coal and gas and oil will not secure our prosperity. They will destroy it.

But everywhere special interests dominate. Construction projects are driven, above all, by the lobbying of the construction industry, consultancies and financiers. Gigantic and destructive schemes, such as the Oxford-Cambridge Expressway, are invented by lobbyists for the purpose of generating contracts. Political support is drummed up, and the project achieves its own momentum; then, belatedly, a feeble attempt is made to demonstrate that it can somehow become compatible with environmental promises. This is what destroys civilisations: a mismatch between the greed of economic elites and the needs of society.

But last week something momentous happened. The decision to build a scheme with vast financial backing and terrible environmental impacts was struck down by the court of appeal. The judges decided that government policy, on which planning permission for a third runway at Heathrow was based, had failed to take account of the UK's climate commitments, and was therefore unlawful. This is - or should be - the end of business as usual.

The Heathrow decision stands as a massive and crucial precedent. Now we must use it to insist that governments everywhere put our survival first, and the demands of corporate lobbyists last. To this end, with the Good Law Project and Dale Vince, the founder of Ecotricity, I'm pursuing a similar claim. In this case, we are challenging the UK government's policy for approving new energy projects.

On Tuesday, we delivered a "letter before action" to the Treasury solicitor. We've given the government 21 days to accept our case and change its policy to reflect the climate commitments agreed by parliament. If it fails to do so, we shall issue proceedings in the high court to have the policy declared unlawful. We'll need money, so we've launched a crowdfunding appeal to finance the action.

It's hard to see how the government could resist our case. The Heathrow judgment hung on the government's national policy statement on airports. This, the judges found, had not been updated to take account of the Paris climate agreement. New fossil fuel plants, such as the gas burners at Drax in Yorkshire the government approved last October, are enabled by something very similar: the national policy statements on energy infrastructure. These have not been updated since they were published in 2011. As a result, they take no account of the Paris agreement, of the government's new climate target (net zero by 2050, as opposed to an 80% cut) or of parliament's declaration of a climate emergency.

The main policy statement says that the EU Emissions Trading System "forms the cornerstone of UK action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector". As we have left the EU, this obviously no longer holds. The planning act obliges the government to review its national policy statements when circumstances change. It has failed to do so. It is disregarding its own laws.

Once a national policy statement has been published, there is little objectors can do to prevent damaging projects from going ahead, as the statements create a presumption in favour of new fossil fuel plants. In approving the Drax plant, Andrea Leadsom, the secretary of state for business and energy at the time, insisted that the policy statement came first, regardless of the climate impacts. Catastrophic decisions like this will continue to be made until the statements change. They are incompatible with either the government's new climate commitments or a habitable planet.

While we are challenging the government's energy policies, another group - the Transport Action Network - is about to challenge its road-building schemes on the same basis. It points out that the national policy statement on road networks is also outdated and incompatible with the UK's climate commitments. The policy statement, astonishingly, insists that "any increase in carbon emissions is not a reason to refuse development consent", unless the increase is so great that the road would prevent the government from meeting its national targets. No single road project can be disqualified on these grounds. But the cumulative effect of new road-building ensures that the UK will inevitably bust its carbon targets. While carbon emissions are officially disregarded, minuscule time savings on travel are used to justify massive and damaging projects.

Transport emissions have been rising for the past five years, partly because of road-building. The government tries to justify its schemes by claiming that cars will use less fossil fuel. But because they are becoming bigger and heavier, new cars sold in the UK now produce more carbon dioxide per kilometre than older models.

The perverse and outdated national policy statement locks into place such damaging projects as the A303 works around Stonehenge, the A27 Arundel scheme, the Lower Thames crossing, the Port of Liverpool access road, the Silvertown tunnel in London and the Wensum link road in Norfolk. A government seeking to protect the lives of current and future generations would immediately strike down the policy that supports these projects, and replace it with one that emphasised walking, cycling and public transport.

Let's enjoy some good climate news: the block on UK onshore wind farms is no more | Max Wakefield

A third action has been launched by Chris Packham and the law firm Leigh Day, challenging HS2 on similar grounds. Its carbon emissions were not properly taken into account, and its environmental impacts were assessed before the government signed the Paris agreement.

Already, the Heathrow decision is resonating around the world. Now we need to drive its implications home, by suing for survival. If we can oblige governments to resist the demands of corporate lobbyists and put life before profit, humanity might just stand a chance.

* George Monbiot is a Guardian columnist
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The government must abandon its fossil fuel power projects. If not, we'll sue | George Monbiot

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No longer should our survival be an afterthought. If we are to withstand the climate crisis, every decision should begin with the question of what the planet can endure. This means that any discussion about new infrastructure should begin with ecological constraints. The figures are stark.

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Europe experiences exceptionally warm winter

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The 2019/2020 winter has been the warmest on record for Europe, with average temperatures 1.4C above the previous high of 2015/2016.

Winter is defined as the months of December, January, and February.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) says the warmth was very evident in the north and east of the continent where a number of local temperature records were being broken.

Last month was also the second hottest February on record globally.

It was cooler by only 0.1C compared with the previous high of 2016.

The C3S reports the numbers in its latest climate bulletins.

It said the mild conditions this winter led to a number of impacts across Europe, including "difficulties for reindeer herding in northern Sweden, failure of the ice-wine harvest in Germany, and having to import snow for sporting events in Sweden and Russia".

The December-February average was 3.4C above the 1981-2010 norm. This made 2019/20 by far the warmest European winter in the data records from 1979 on which the service's climate bulletins are based.

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Europe experiences exceptionally warm winter

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The 2019/2020 winter has been the warmest on record for Europe, with average temperatures 1.4C above the previous high of 2015/2016. Winter is defined as the months of December, January, and February. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) says the warmth was very evident in the north and east of the continent where a number of local temperature records were being broken.

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Edinburgh University researchers use drones to map retreating Andes glaciers

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An Edinburgh university researcher has used drones to capture a bird's-eye view of some of the highest glaciers in South America.

Rosie Bisset is part of a project to map the Andes glaciers which are retreating in the face of global heating, despite their high altitude.

Experts say these glaciers are a vital resource which are under threat.

The glaciers in Peru have shrunk by about 30% in the last couple of decades.

Peter Nienow, professor of geology at the University of Edinburgh, said it could have a devastating effect on local people.

"In the Andes in Peru, which have about 70% of the world's glacier area in the tropics, those glacial areas are retreating," he said.

"As they retreat that impacts downstream communities because they rely on the water resources for agriculture, for industry, for hydroelectric power."

'Major obstacle'

Doctoral student Rosie Bisset knew this before she trekked high into the Andes with her drones.

She wanted to know more about both the extent of the retreat and exactly how glaciers melt.

The altitude of 4,600m (15,000 ft) presented a major obstacle.

"At that altitude the air is really thin, making it difficult to operate many drones," she said.

"So we collaborated with a local company called Skytech Aerial to help us build a drone that would cope with the high altitude but also have the sensors we needed."

Skytech Aerial's owner David Redpath customised two commercially available drones and taught Rosie to fly them in a matter of weeks.

He says propellers need to spin faster in thinner air to create lift, running down the battery faster. On the plus side cold air is denser, making it easier to create lift.

"We were able to merge ideas and customise one of the drones," David says.

"What Rosie specifically was looking for was a drone with a thermal camera underneath that would be able to do the thermal imaging of the glacier."

Rosie and her field assistant Callum Reay climbed two glaciers, each carrying a drone in their rucksack.

They spent some nights under canvas in sub-zero temperatures to capture images in both visible and infrared light.

Back in the relative warmth of Edinburgh, Rosie is building a 3D digital model of the Llaca glacier.

"We can compare this to 3D models that were collected in previous years in order to tell us how the glacier's structure and size is changing."

On to the model she pieces a mosaic of the data gathered by the infrared camera.

"Using the thermal imagery we can generate a map of surface temperature on the glacier.

"This will tell us more about the properties of the surface and how it's influencing the melt rates of the glaciers."

Rosie worked with Edinburgh University's Airborne Geosciences Facility. It has a fleet of aerial vehicles that can be used for research abroad and here at home.

The projects range from precision agriculture to hunting dinosaur footprints in the Highlands and Islands.

It is run by professional pilot Thomas Wade, who says these eyes in the sky offer a powerful advantage over satellites:

"We're talking about very high resolution imagery, sub-millimetre resolution in some cases, which you just can't do with satellites at the moment."

Dr Andrew Gray works in Edinburgh for the National Centre for Earth Observation, a research centre spread across several UK universities.

He and his colleagues provide equipment enabling researchers to "ground truth" their data.

"We host different types of sensors - multispectral cameras," he said. "They're sort of like normal cameras but they can see further into the electromagnetic spectrum. They're very precisely calibrated as well.

"They have any number of applications, things like looking at different types of vegetation, biodiversity, studying biomass or different ecosystems.

"For example you could map forests and things like rhododendron encroachment."

Rosie Bisset is still working on her findings for inclusion in her PhD thesis. Her research is primarily funded by the Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) with additional support from the Scottish Alliance for Geoscience, Environment and Society.

Her work is also funded through a collaborative research programme between NERC and the Peruvian Council for Science, Technology and Technological Innovation.

The project, called CASCADA, partners Peruvian experts in water resources, glaciology and ecology with UK glaciologists, geochemists and technologists to investigate and come up with solutions to the impact of retreating glaciers on Peru's rivers.

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Drones used to study shrinking Andes glaciers

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An Edinburgh university researcher has used drones to capture a bird's-eye view of some of the highest glaciers in South America. Rosie Bisset is part of a project to map the Andes glaciers which are retreating in the face of global heating, despite their high altitude.

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Global rescue plan for nature 'overlooks genetic diversity'

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A global plan to halt the loss of nature is "weak" in one key area, say scientists.

The new 10-year strategy to stop extinction must aim to protect the gene pools of all life on earth, according to conservation experts.

The action agenda must explicitly refer to the genetic diversity of all species not just those regarded as of value to humans, they say.

New targets will be agreed at October's Convention on Biological Diversity.

The first draft of the biodiversity plan, published in January, does not go far enough to protect the genetics of wild animals and plants, say 20 international researchers in a letter to the journal, Science.

They say the goal suggested for genetic diversity is "weak" and does not explicitly state that minimising the loss of the gene pool is crucial for all species, not just a few.

Prof Michael Bruford of Cardiff University, UK, said the previous target only considered domestic animals and plants, their wild relatives, and certain other species considered of importance for cultural or economic reasons.

"This as you can imagine is very much an anthropocentric view of biodiversity," he said. "The purview of the genetic target has to take into account all genetics of life on earth - all life has DNA or RNA and so why would we only be considering that for species that are of value to man?

"If we don't have good, sensible and explicit targets then nobody's going to even work towards conserving that diversity."

The year 2020 is considered a "super year for nature", when plans to tackle biodiversity loss over the next decade will be agreed at the conference of the parties in Kunming, China.

Last year, an intergovernmental panel of scientists warned that human activity is killing species in greater numbers than ever before, with an estimated one million species facing extinction within decades.

Scientists who signed the letter say the draft plan must include wider monitoring and evaluation of genetic diversity.

"What you really want to do is be looking at preserving genetic diversity within all species as a default, because genetic diversity allows species to be resilient to things like climate change and extreme events," said Prof Bruford.

Follow Helen on Twitter.

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Global rescue plan for nature 'overlooks genetic diversity'

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A global plan to halt the loss of nature is "weak" in one key area, say scientists. The new 10-year strategy to stop extinction must aim to protect the gene pools of all life on earth, according to conservation experts.

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Storm payouts average out at £32,000 per household

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Insurers are set to pay out an average £32,000 per household for flood claims after destructive UK winter storms, an industry body has said.

The bill to clean up after storms Dennis and Ciara is set to total more than £360m, the Association of British Insurers (ABI) said.

About £214m is going on flood claims and £149m on wind damage.

However, affected people should not expect a hike in premiums, a spokeswoman said.

This is because insurers use some of their premiums to pay a levy into a scheme each year - the government's Flood Re fund - which helps them pay out for flood damage.

In the immediate aftermath of the two storms, insurers paid more than £7.7m in emergency funds to get home owners and businesses back on track, including paying for temporary accommodation when homes were uninhabitable.

Mark Shepherd, the ABI's head of general insurance policy, said: "With some properties still under water, making emergency payments and arranging emergency alternative temporary accommodation or trading premises is very much a live issue."

Previous payouts

The last time several significant storms struck in quick succession was in December 2015, when storms Desmond, Eva and Frank caused damage to the cost of £1.3bn, the ABI said.

It also put the cost of flooding in parts of south Yorkshire and the Midlands in November last year at more than £110m.

ABI spokesman Malcolm Tarling said: "Insurers take these events on the chin. They expect flooding and bad weather to occur, and they plan for it.

"Insurers will look at the predictions for bad weather. They know that flooding is going to get worse and become more significant, and insurers will take that into account when they set their prices."

In 2019, researchers said that climate change would drive a "robust increase" in UK flooding.

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Storm payouts average out at £32,000 per household

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Insurers are set to pay out an average £32,000 per household for flood claims after destructive UK winter storms, an industry body has said. The bill to clean up after storms Dennis and Ciara is set to total more than £360m, the Association of British Insurers (ABI) said.

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Nigeria housing: 'I live in a floating slum' in Lagos - BBC News

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As a UN report is released condemning the poor state of housing provision in Nigeria, the BBC's Mayeni Jones visits a precarious community in the commercial capital, Lagos.

From above, the Oko-Agbon neighbourhood, in the infamous Makoko floating slum, looks almost picturesque.

Little wooden shacks on stilts sit on top of dark water.

Residents move from one to another on canoes, calling out to neighbours and friends. Some outsiders have fancifully described it as the Venice of Africa.

However, get closer and it is a different picture.

The water is full of household rubbish, including needles and human faeces. There is a suffocating smell of rotten fish hanging in the air.

Hundreds of people live here in very close quarters and there is little privacy.

Yet despite these conditions, this has been a refuge for some.

Fisherman Dosu Francis moved here three years ago, after being evicted from Otodo Gbame, another waterfront community about 25km (16 miles) away by road.

He has been sleeping, with his wife and one of his sons, in a small shed that is used for smoking fish. The shed belongs to one of his brothers and was only meant to be a temporary shelter, but three years on, he has not been able to find anywhere else to live.

'Sent my children away'

"Since we were evicted, it hasn't been easy at all for me to live," says Mr Francis in a soft voice.

"I have three children of school age, but I can't afford their fees and I can't afford to feed them, so I've had to send two of them away to my first daughter who's married.

"Only one of my sons lives here with me."

Nigeria's housing need

While showing me the shed, a modest structure made of a few planks of wood and plastic sheeting for a roof, he explains that they still smoke fish in it during the day. At night, he clears the uneven ground as much as he can in order to sleep.

I notice holes in the roof and ask what they do during the rainy season.

"We plug up the holes with plastic bags," he replies.

Nothing has been given to us, no-one has given us any money, they just told us to leave"

Dosu Francis
Fisherman

Mr Francis says he and other residents of Otodo Gbame were violently evicted in 2017 after a neighbouring community, who wanted their land, sent the police to kick them out.

"They started moving us bit by bit. We thought we might be able to do a deal with the police but they didn't agree, and one day they came and drove everyone out."

I ask if he ever got any compensation since being evicted.

"Nothing has been given to us," he explains, "no-one has given us any money, no-one has given us a house, nothing has been given to us, they just told us to leave."

Mr Francis' story is far from unique. Millions have been evicted from the country's slums over the past 20 years, often with very little notice and without being given alternative housing.

According to Amnesty International, between 2000 and 2009, Nigerian authorities forcibly evicted over two million people.

There have been several high-profile forced evictions in Lagos state alone.

In February 2013, state authorities evicted at least 9,000 people from Badia East in central Lagos, to make way for a government building project. In September 2015, another 10,000 people were evicted from the area.

And earlier this year, an estimated 10,000 people were given an hour to pack up their things before being asked to leave the beachfront community of Tarkwa Bay, a popular weekend destination for Lagosians.

Despite some public outrage on social media, many of their houses were soon demolished by the navy.

In late January, I met some of them outside the high court in Ikoyi, where they had come to get an injunction to stop the demolition work.

They said their village was destroyed to make way for a luxury development:

"We believe that it is for the economic benefit of a few pockets," one former resident told me. "Historically, other evicted sites have been turned into private estates and properties."

The authorities deny this, saying they evicted the community there because some of their members were illegally tapping into oil pipelines.

But when I headed to Tarkwa Bay to find out for myself, members of the navy and armed men in military fatigues asked me to leave. They said they had nothing to hide but that we needed to go through the proper channels and come back on a supervised visit.

It is easy to understand why residents might be suspicious.

After Mr Francis' old neighbourhood, Otodo Gbame, was cleared three years ago, luxury apartments started springing up in the area.

But many say these developments are often too expensive for the majority, and tend to remain empty.

"You'll be surprised to know that there are some vacant buildings in Lagos, while you have thousands of people sleeping rough, with no access to adequate housing," says Dr Muyiwa Agunbiade, a lecturer in urban and regional planning at the University of Lagos.

If people have titles to their land, then residents will feel secure enough to build good quality housing"

Dr Muyiwa Agunbiade
Urban planning lecturer

"In Nigeria we haven't gotten to the stage [of providing social housing]. Most importantly I don't think the government has the resources to take care of that."

He believes a workable solution would be to formalise the ownership of land. Without that, people who live in informal settlements, can always be moved on, he says.

"But if the government gets it right, and you have a good land registration system, where people have titles to their land, then residents will feel secure enough to build good quality housing and you won't need to evict them."

In the meantime forced evictions continue to happen, leaving many like Mr Francis and his family in limbo.

Stuck in their shed, with the smell of smoked fish everywhere and no guarantee they will not get pushed out again.

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Nigeria housing: 'I live in a floating slum' in Lagos

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Millions of Nigerians live in flimsy housing under very precarious circumstances.

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Carbon capture and storage has stalled needlessly – three reasons why fears of CO₂ leakage are overblown

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The idea is simple: capture and concentrate CO₂ before it's released to the air and store it deep underground where it can't escape. Instead of adding to the climate crisis, carbon capture and storage could turn power plants and factories into CO₂-sucking behemoths, filling underground reservoirs that otherwise held fossil fuels or salty water.

The world's first dedicated CCS project, Sleipner (in the Norwegian North Sea), started injecting CO₂ into underground reservoirs in 1996. Since then, it has successfully stored more than 20 million tonnes (Mt). That might sound impressive, but it's nowhere near enough. The International Energy Agency recommends that 21,400 Mt of CO₂ should be captured and stored by 2030 to limit global warming to 2°C. But, by the end of 2017, only 442 Mt had been injected and stored.

Stephanie Flude, CC BY

Why has the world been so slow to adopt CCS? A big issue is the upfront cost needed to build capture plants. These are expensive in the short term, but much cheaper than doing nothing about CO₂ emissions in the long run. But there are other issues too. If a CO₂ storage site should contain the injected carbon for thousands to millions of years, but a company operating that site only exists for a few decades, who should pay to fix it if CO₂ starts to leak out? And how much insurance should operators pay to cover the cost of hypothetical future problems?

This fear of CO₂ leaking out of storage is slowing progress on developing CCS at the scale needed. Bad reporting of CCS research, combined with a general distrust of the fossil fuel industry - as well as people wrongly assuming that there's a link between CCS and fracking - seems to have convinced many people that the risk of CO₂ leakage is bigger than it really is.

Luckily, there are many reasons why sequestered CO₂ is likely to stay safely locked away underground for millions of years. Much of this relies on natural processes that can be optimised in CCS by choosing the right places and procedures to store CO₂.

Read more: Carbon capture on power stations burning woodchips is not the green gamechanger many think it is

1. Mimic oil and gas reservoirs

Oil and gas are buoyant fluids. They move upwards through porous and permeable rocks until they reach an impermeable rock layer. This impermeable layer is like a lid on these fluids, stopping them from leaking out. Here, they accumulate in the underlying, porous reservoir rock, held in place for thousands to millions of years by the overlying, impermeable seal (at least until a fossil fuel company drills a well to extract them, that is).

This process, called structural trapping, is what keeps oil and natural gas underground - and it can do the same for stored CO₂. A good CO₂ storage reservoir will have multiple layers between the reservoir and the surface that CO₂ can't penetrate.

But what if this impermeable layer is cut by a fault, or an old well that hasn't been sealed properly? Good regulation is the first line of defence, but even if mistakes are made and the CO₂ does find a way out, there are other mechanisms that will keep the vast majority trapped underground.

Stephanie Flude, CC BY

2. Trap microscopic CO₂ bubbles in pore spaces

Soaking a sponge in water, you may notice that no matter how long it's submerged, there are still air bubbles in the sponge. This process is called residual trapping. It happens when gases mix with water in the pore spaces of rocks and make it very difficult to remove all of the gas. When CO₂ is injected, it mixes with the salty water already in the reservoir's pore spaces, and some of it will get stuck as microscopic bubbles.

Experiments on rocks that are typical of storage reservoirs suggest that between 12 and 92% of injected CO₂ could be immobilised by this process.

3. Dissolve CO₂ in subterranean brine

CO₂ is soluble in water, and the pore spaces of rocks underground are filled with salty water. When CO₂ is injected, it will start to dissolve in this brine almost immediately. The carbon from dissolved CO₂ will only be released if the pressure, temperature and chemical conditions in the reservoir change drastically, which is very unlikely far underground.

Even better, CO₂-saturated brine is denser than regular brine, meaning it will start to sink. This not only moves the carbon further away from the atmosphere, but it also increases mixing of brine within the reservoir, meaning more and more CO₂ can dissolve over time.

Over hundreds to thousands of years, the dissolved carbon will react with metal ions in the brine and start to precipitate carbonate minerals, making it even more difficult to release the carbon as CO₂. This is the same mechanism that the Carbfix project in Iceland uses to trap CO₂ in basalt.

Worth the risk

Accidents can and will happen - CCS, like any other human activity, carries a degree of risk. But we know for certain that if a site were to fail, far less CO₂ would leak than was injected, because a lot of the CO₂ becomes permanently trapped anyway. All of these natural trapping mechanisms ensure that the vast majority of the CO₂ (up to 98%) will remain safely trapped below ground for 10,000 years. Even in an unlikely, badly-regulated, worst-case scenario, at least 78% of the injected CO₂ is likely to stay locked up.

GLF Media/Shutterstock

The risks of CO₂ leaking from storage should be weighed against the risks of not storing it at all. Currently, the alternative is to emit 100% of that CO₂ to the atmosphere. For industries such as steel and cement manufacturing - essential ingredients for many renewable energy technologies - CCS is the only way to reduce CO₂ emissions from many industrial plants. CCS can also help developing countries limit CO₂ emissions while reducing energy poverty.

Maintaining atmospheric CO₂ concentrations low enough to avoid catastrophic climate change will be incredibly difficult, and much more expensive, without CCS. We cannot afford to delay this important technology any longer.

Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn't.

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Carbon capture and storage has stalled needlessly - three reasons why fears of CO₂ leakage are overblown

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
The idea is simple: capture and concentrate CO₂ before it's released to the air and store it deep underground where it can't escape. Instead of adding to the climate crisis, carbon capture and storage could turn power plants and factories into CO₂-sucking behemoths, filling underground reservoirs that otherwise held fossil fuels or salty water.

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The government must abandon its fossil fuel power projects. If not, we’ll sue

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No longer should our survival be an afterthought. If we are to withstand the climate crisis, every decision should begin with the question of what the planet can endure. This means that any discussion about new infrastructure should begin with ecological constraints. The figures are stark. A paper published in Nature last year showed that existing energy infrastructure, if it is allowed to run to the end of its natural life, will produce around 660 gigatonnes of CO2. Yet, to stand a reasonable chance of preventing more than 1.5°C of global heating, we can afford to release, in total, no more than 580 gigatonnes.

In other words, far from building new fossil power plants, the survival of a habitable planet means retiring the damaging projects that have already been built. Electricity plants burning coal and gas and oil will not secure our prosperity. They will destroy it.

But everywhere special interests dominate. Construction projects are driven, above all, by the lobbying of the construction industry, consultancies and financiers. Gigantic and destructive schemes, such as the Oxford-Cambridge Expressway, are invented by lobbyists for the purpose of generating contracts. Political support is drummed up, and the project achieves its own momentum; then, belatedly, a feeble attempt is made to demonstrate that it can somehow become compatible with environmental promises. This is what destroys civilisations: a mismatch between the greed of economic elites and the needs of society.

But last week something momentous happened. The decision to build a scheme with vast financial backing and terrible environmental impacts was struck down by the court of appeal. The judges decided that government policy, on which planning permission for a third runway at Heathrow was based, had failed to take account of the UK's climate commitments, and was therefore unlawful. This is - or should be - the end of business as usual.

The Heathrow decision stands as a massive and crucial precedent. Now we must use it to insist that governments everywhere put our survival first, and the demands of corporate lobbyists last. To this end, with the Good Law Project and Dale Vince, the founder of Ecotricity, I'm pursuing a similar claim. In this case, we are challenging the UK government's policy for approving new energy projects.

On Tuesday, we delivered a "letter before action" to the Treasury solicitor. We've given the government 21 days to accept our case and change its policy to reflect the climate commitments agreed by parliament. If it fails to do so, we shall issue proceedings in the high court to have the policy declared unlawful. We'll need money, so we've launched a crowdfunding appeal to finance the action.

It's hard to see how the government could resist our case. The Heathrow judgment hung on the government's national policy statement on airports. This, the judges found, had not been updated to take account of the Paris climate agreement. New fossil fuel plants, such as the gas burners at Drax in Yorkshire the government approved last October, are enabled by something very similar: the national policy statements on energy infrastructure. These have not been updated since they were published in 2011. As a result, they take no account of the Paris agreement, of the government's new climate target (net zero by 2050, as opposed to an 80% cut) or of parliament's declaration of a climate emergency.

The main policy statement says that the EU Emissions Trading System "forms the cornerstone of UK action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector". As we have left the EU, this obviously no longer holds. The planning act obliges the government to review its national policy statements when circumstances change. It has failed to do so. It is disregarding its own laws.

Once a national policy statement has been published, there is little objectors can do to prevent damaging projects from going ahead, as the statements create a presumption in favour of new fossil fuel plants. In approving the Drax plant, Andrea Leadsom, the secretary of state for business and energy at the time, insisted that the policy statement came first, regardless of the climate impacts. Catastrophic decisions like this will continue to be made until the statements change. They are incompatible with either the government's new climate commitments or a habitable planet.

While we are challenging the government's energy policies, another group - the Transport Action Network - is about to challenge its road-building schemes on the same basis. It points out that the national policy statement on road networks is also outdated and incompatible with the UK's climate commitments. The policy statement, astonishingly, insists that "any increase in carbon emissions is not a reason to refuse development consent", unless the increase is so great that the road would prevent the government from meeting its national targets. No single road project can be disqualified on these grounds. But the cumulative effect of new road-building ensures that the UK will inevitably bust its carbon targets. While carbon emissions are officially disregarded, minuscule time savings on travel are used to justify massive and damaging projects.

Transport emissions have been rising for the past five years, partly because of road-building. The government tries to justify its schemes by claiming that cars will use less fossil fuel. But because they are becoming bigger and heavier, new cars sold in the UK now produce more carbon dioxide per kilometre than older models.

The perverse and outdated national policy statement locks into place such damaging projects as the A303 works around Stonehenge, the A27 Arundel scheme, the Lower Thames crossing, the Port of Liverpool access road, the Silvertown tunnel in London and the Wensum link road in Norfolk. A government seeking to protect the lives of current and future generations would immediately strike down the policy that supports these projects, and replace it with one that emphasised walking, cycling and public transport.

Let's enjoy some good climate news: the block on UK onshore wind farms is no more | Max Wakefield

A third action has been launched by Chris Packham and the law firm Leigh Day, challenging HS2 on similar grounds. Its carbon emissions were not properly taken into account, and its environmental impacts were assessed before the government signed the Paris agreement.

Already, the Heathrow decision is resonating around the world. Now we need to drive its implications home, by suing for survival. If we can oblige governments to resist the demands of corporate lobbyists and put life before profit, humanity might just stand a chance.

* George Monbiot is a Guardian columnist
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The government must abandon its fossil fuel power projects. If not, we'll sue | George Monbiot

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No longer should our survival be an afterthought. If we are to withstand the climate crisis, every decision should begin with the question of what the planet can endure. This means that any discussion about new infrastructure should begin with ecological constraints. The figures are stark.

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Tropical forests losing their ability to absorb carbon, study finds

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Tropical forests are taking up less carbon dioxide from the air, reducing their ability to act as "carbon sinks" and bringing closer the prospect of accelerating climate breakdown.

The Amazon could turn into a source of carbon in the atmosphere, instead of one of the biggest absorbers of the gas, as soon as the next decade, owing to the damage caused by loggers and farming interests and the impacts of the climate crisis, new research has found.

If that happens, climate breakdown is likely to become much more severe in its impacts, and the world will have to cut down much faster on carbon-producing activities to counteract the loss of the carbon sinks.

"We've found that one of the most worrying impacts of climate change has already begun," said Simon Lewis, professor in the school of geography at Leeds University, one of the senior authors of the research. "This is decades ahead of even the most pessimistic climate models."

For the last three decades, the amount of carbon absorbed by the world's intact tropical forests has fallen, according to the study from nearly 100 scientific institutions. They are now taking up a third less carbon than they did in the 1990s, owing to the impacts of higher temperatures, droughts and deforestation. That downward trend is likely to continue, as forests come under increasing threat from climate change and exploitation. The typical tropical forest may become a carbon source by the 2060s, according to Lewis.

"Humans have been lucky so far, as tropical forests are mopping up lots of our pollution, but they can't keep doing that indefinitely," he told the Guardian. "We need to curb fossil fuel emissions before the global carbon cycle starts working against us. The time for action is now."

At this year's UN climate talks, known as Cop26 and to be held in Glasgow in November, many countries are expected to come forward with plans to reach net zero emissions by mid-century. But some rich countries and many companies plan to reduce their emissions via offsetting, often by preserving, replanting or growing new forest.

This research shows that relying on tropical forests is unlikely to be enough to offset large-scale emissions. "There is a lot of talk about offsetting, but the reality is that every country and every sector needs to reach zero emissions, with any small amount of residual emissions needing to be removed from the atmosphere," said Lewis. "The use of forests as an offset is largely a marketing tool for companies to try to continue with business as usual."

The uptake of carbon from the atmosphere by tropical forests peaked in the 1990s when about 46bn tonnes were removed from the air, equivalent to about 17% of carbon dioxide emissions from human activities. By the last decade, that amount had sunk to about 25bn tonnes, or just 6% of global emissions.

The difference is about the same as a decade of fossil fuel emissions from the UK, Germany, France and Canada put together.

Climate scientists have long feared the existence of "tipping points" in the climate system, which when passed will condemn the world to runaway global heating. There are many known feedback mechanisms: for instance, the melting of Arctic ice leaves more of the sea uncovered, and, as it is darker than the reflective ice, it absorbs more heat, thus leading to more melting.

These feedback mechanisms have the potential to accelerate the climate crisis far ahead of what current projections suggest. If forests start to become sources of carbon rather than absorbers of it, that would be a powerful positive feedback leading to much greater warming that would be hard to stop.

Forests lose their ability to absorb carbon as trees die and dry out from drought and higher temperatures, but the loss of forest area from logging, burning and other forms of exploitation is also a leading factor in the loss of carbon sinks.

Tom Crowther, founder of the Crowther Lab, who was not involved with the research, told the Guardian: "This analysis provides concerning evidence that, along with continuing deforestation rates, the carbon sequestration rate of tropical forests could also be threatened by increasing tree mortality under climate change. This is very important information, as the capacity of tropical forests to capture anthropogenic carbon emissions could be severely impaired."

The study, published on Wednesday in the journal Nature, tracked 300,000 trees over 30 years, providing the first large-scale evidence of the decline in carbon uptake by the world's tropical forests. The researchers combined data from two large research networks of forest observations in Africa and the Amazon, as well as years spent travelling to remote field sites, including a week spent in a dug-out canoe to reach Salonga national park in the troubled Democratic Republic of the Congo.

They used aluminium nails to tag individual trees, measuring the diameter and estimating the height of every tree within 565 patches of forest, and returning every few years to repeat the process. This enabled them to calculate the carbon stored in the trees that survived and those that died. They found that the Amazon sink started weakening first, but that African forests are now rapidly following. Amazonian forests are exposed to higher temperatures, faster temperature increases, and more frequent and severe droughts, than African forests.

Their projection that the Amazonian forest will turn into a carbon source in the mid-2030s is based on their observations and a statistical model and trends in emissions, temperature and rainfall to forecast changes in how forests will store carbon up to 2040.

Doug Parr, the chief scientist at Greenpeace UK, said governments should heed the science and make strong commitments to cut greenhouse gases at the Cop26 summit, and agree to measures to protect and restore forests. "For years, we have had scientific warnings about tipping points in the Earth system and they've been largely ignored by policy and decision-makers," he said. "That forests are now seemingly losing the ability to absorb pollution is alarming. What more of a wake-up call do we need?"
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Tropical forests losing their ability to absorb carbon, study finds

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Tropical forests are taking up less carbon dioxide from the air, reducing their ability to act as "carbon sinks" and bringing closer the prospect of accelerating climate breakdown.

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This winter in Europe was hottest on record by far, say scientists

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This winter has been by far the hottest recorded in Europe, scientists have announced, with the climate crisis likely to have supercharged the heat.

The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) data dates back to 1855. It said the average temperature for December, January and February was 1.4C above the previous winter record, which was set in 2015-16. New regional climate records are usually passed by only a fraction of a degree. Europe's winter was 3.4C hotter than the average from 1981-2010.

The unseasonal heat has led to the failure of the ice-wine harvest in Germany and snow having to be imported for sporting events in Sweden and Russia. In Helsinki, Finland, the average temperature for January and February was more than 6C higher than the 1981-2010 average. In the UK, serious flooding is likely to have been made worse by higher temperatures, as in 2015.

"Whilst this winter was a truly extreme event in its own right, it is likely that these sorts of events have been made more extreme by the global warming trend," said Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S.

But he added: "Seeing such a warm winter is disconcerting, but does not represent a climate trend as such. Seasonal temperatures, especially outside the tropics vary significantly from year to year."

Nonetheless, scientists expect global heating to increase the number of temperature extremes and this is continuing around the world. Australia, which has suffered catastrophic bushfires, has just recorded its second-hottest summer on record, only a little cooler than the record set the year before.

In Antarctica, the temperature rose above 20C for the first time on record in February, almost a full degree higher than the previous record set in 1982.

Across the globe as a whole, 2019 was the second hottest on record for the planet's surface and both the past five years and the past decade were the hottest in 150 years. The previous hottest year was in 2016, but temperatures were boosted that year by a natural El Niño event. The heat in the world's oceans reached a new record level in 2019, showing "irrefutable and accelerating" heating of the planet, according to scientists.

In the UK, the Met Office said in January that a series of high temperature records were broken in 2019 as a consequence of the climate crisis. This included the hottest temperature ever recorded in the country: 38.7C on 25 July in Cambridge.

2020 is a crucial year in the fight to halt the climate emergency and prevent the damaging impacts worsening. The UK is hosting a vital UN climate summit in November at which the world's nations must dramatically increase their pledges to cut carbon emissions to avoid a disastrous 3-4C rise in global temperatures.
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This winter in Europe was hottest on record by far, say scientists

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This winter has been by far the hottest recorded in Europe, scientists have announced, with the climate crisis likely to have supercharged the heat. The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) data dates back to 1855. It said the average temperature for December, January and February was 1.4C above the previous winter record, which was set in 2015-16.

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Nigeria housing: 'I live in a floating slum' in Lagos - BBC News

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As a UN report is released condemning the poor state of housing provision in Nigeria, the BBC's Mayeni Jones visits a precarious community in the commercial capital, Lagos.

From above, the Oko-Agbon neighbourhood, in the infamous Makoko floating slum, looks almost picturesque.

Little wooden shacks on stilts sit on top of dark water.

Residents move from one to another on canoes, calling out to neighbours and friends. Some outsiders have fancifully described it as the Venice of Africa.

However, get closer and it is a different picture.

The water is full of household rubbish, including needles and human faeces. There is a suffocating smell of rotten fish hanging in the air.

Hundreds of people live here in very close quarters and there is little privacy.

Yet despite these conditions, this has been a refuge for some.

Fisherman Dosu Francis moved here three years ago, after being evicted from Otodo Gbame, another waterfront community about 25km (16 miles) away by road.

He has been sleeping, with his wife and one of his sons, in a small shed that is used for smoking fish. The shed belongs to one of his brothers and was only meant to be a temporary shelter, but three years on, he has not been able to find anywhere else to live.

'Sent my children away'

"Since we were evicted, it hasn't been easy at all for me to live," says Mr Francis in a soft voice.

"I have three children of school age, but I can't afford their fees and I can't afford to feed them, so I've had to send two of them away to my first daughter who's married.

"Only one of my sons lives here with me."

Nigeria's housing need

While showing me the shed, a modest structure made of a few planks of wood and plastic sheeting for a roof, he explains that they still smoke fish in it during the day. At night, he clears the uneven ground as much as he can in order to sleep.

I notice holes in the roof and ask what they do during the rainy season.

"We plug up the holes with plastic bags," he replies.

Nothing has been given to us, no-one has given us any money, they just told us to leave"

Dosu Francis
Fisherman

Mr Francis says he and other residents of Otodo Gbame were violently evicted in 2017 after a neighbouring community, who wanted their land, sent the police to kick them out.

"They started moving us bit by bit. We thought we might be able to do a deal with the police but they didn't agree, and one day they came and drove everyone out."

I ask if he ever got any compensation since being evicted.

"Nothing has been given to us," he explains, "no-one has given us any money, no-one has given us a house, nothing has been given to us, they just told us to leave."

Mr Francis' story is far from unique. Millions have been evicted from the country's slums over the past 20 years, often with very little notice and without being given alternative housing.

According to Amnesty International, between 2000 and 2009, Nigerian authorities forcibly evicted over two million people.

There have been several high-profile forced evictions in Lagos state alone.

In February 2013, state authorities evicted at least 9,000 people from Badia East in central Lagos, to make way for a government building project. In September 2015, another 10,000 people were evicted from the area.

And earlier this year, an estimated 10,000 people were given an hour to pack up their things before being asked to leave the beachfront community of Tarkwa Bay, a popular weekend destination for Lagosians.

Despite some public outrage on social media, many of their houses were soon demolished by the navy.

In late January, I met some of them outside the high court in Ikoyi, where they had come to get an injunction to stop the demolition work.

They said their village was destroyed to make way for a luxury development:

"We believe that it is for the economic benefit of a few pockets," one former resident told me. "Historically, other evicted sites have been turned into private estates and properties."

The authorities deny this, saying they evicted the community there because some of their members were illegally tapping into oil pipelines.

But when I headed to Tarkwa Bay to find out for myself, members of the navy and armed men in military fatigues asked me to leave. They said they had nothing to hide but that we needed to go through the proper channels and come back on a supervised visit.

It is easy to understand why residents might be suspicious.

After Mr Francis' old neighbourhood, Otodo Gbame, was cleared three years ago, luxury apartments started springing up in the area.

But many say these developments are often too expensive for the majority, and tend to remain empty.

"You'll be surprised to know that there are some vacant buildings in Lagos, while you have thousands of people sleeping rough, with no access to adequate housing," says Dr Muyiwa Agunbiade, a lecturer in urban and regional planning at the University of Lagos.

If people have titles to their land, then residents will feel secure enough to build good quality housing"

Dr Muyiwa Agunbiade
Urban planning lecturer

"In Nigeria we haven't gotten to the stage [of providing social housing]. Most importantly I don't think the government has the resources to take care of that."

He believes a workable solution would be to formalise the ownership of land. Without that, people who live in informal settlements, can always be moved on, he says.

"But if the government gets it right, and you have a good land registration system, where people have titles to their land, then residents will feel secure enough to build good quality housing and you won't need to evict them."

In the meantime forced evictions continue to happen, leaving many like Mr Francis and his family in limbo.

Stuck in their shed, with the smell of smoked fish everywhere and no guarantee they will not get pushed out again.

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Nigeria housing: 'I live in a floating slum' in Lagos

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Millions of Nigerians live in flimsy housing under very precarious circumstances.

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Fairbourne is the first community set to be decommissioned due to rising sea levels.

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Beavers introduced to Yorkshire in 2019 may have prevented Storm Dennis flooding with their dams - Yorkshire Post

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A pair of beavers introduced to a Yorkshire forest last year may have played a vital role in preventing flooding this month.

The beavers' dam in Cropton Forest pictured in October 2019

The male and female were taken from Scotland to live in Cropton Forest, near Pickering in the North York Moors, a part of a managed re-introduction programme.

They were released in April 2019 at the Forestry England-owned site and have since settled in so well that they had two babies, known as kits, that summer.

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The beaver being released into Cropton Forest in April 2019

It is the first time beavers have lived in the wild in Yorkshire since the 16th century.

One of the aims of the programme is to encourage natural flood management by enticing the beavers to build dams. In Cropton Forest, there are already several artificial dams to protect nearby homes.

Beaver monitoring projects around the UK reported that the animals' activities in areas where they had been re-introduced had helped to mitigate the effects of Storm Ciara and Storm Dennis this month. Their dams trap water and slow down the flow downstream, preventing a deluge.

In Cropton Forest, the pair have built a large dam and helped to reconnect the river with its floodplain.

One of the Cropton Forest beavers with a kit

Foresty England ecologist for Yorkshire Cath Bashforth said: "The beavers have been busy and made a large dam in the river. They have also fixed 'leaks' in ponds that were already there, meaning that more water is being stored in them. Their activity has definitely made a difference to how the water moves through the enclosure. The dam appears to be reconnecting the river to its floodplain and we are collecting detailed information on how this is slowing the flow. It is too early to say what impact the beavers have had on reducing flooding downstream."

Beavers were hunted for their fur and wild populations in Britain had been wiped out by the 16th century.

In 2009, four beaver families were relocated from Norway to Knapdale in Argyll, Scotland, and released into the wild.

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Beavers introduced to Yorkshire in 2019 may have prevented Storm Dennis flooding with their dams

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The beavers' dam in Cropton Forest pictured in October 2019 The male and female were taken from Scotland to live in Cropton Forest, near Pickering in the North York Moors, a part of a managed re-introduction programme.

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The government is set to approve the controversial High Speed 2 (HS2) rail project, the BBC has learned.

An announcement on the route linking London to Birmingham, and then on to Manchester and Leeds, is expected by the prime minister on Tuesday.

Supporters of the plan say it will improve transport times, create jobs and rebalance the UK's economy.

But the rising cost of the project and accusations of mismanagement have provoked anger from critics.

HS2 - which is due to be completed by 2040 - is already over budget and behind schedule.

The government is expected to approve the whole line. However, it will try to make changes to the second phase of the project - the routes to Manchester and Leeds - to save money.

Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, told the BBC the train line would help cut overcrowding: "We need a better backbone for our public transport services,

"The capacity HS2 is going to deliver is absolutely crucial."

Many smaller businesses have also welcomed the plan. Lee Kemp, who runs Vermillion Films in Birmingham, which makes corporate training films, said HS2 is "really good news for us as a city and as a region".

"With this actually moving forward people can start making plans around it," he told the BBC.

However, the building of HS2 has also had its casualties.

Ron and Anne Ryall have been ordered to leave their home in March, because it is on the planned route and is due to be demolished.

Ron told the BBC: "It's completely wrecked our lives. I'm finding it difficult that someone can just walk into your life and destroy it. My family has lived in this lane for 100 years. I was born here."

'Level up'

A source close to the project has confirmed that Boris Johnson will also announce a series of other transport projects on Tuesday. The projects are aimed at answering critics who fear the high cost of HS2 will mean other infrastructure projects are sidelined.

Some of them will be situated in the north of England and the Midlands as part of the government's manifesto promise to "level up" the UK by investing more in regions outside of London.

Approving the plan could be seen as a risky move for Mr Johnson as there has been opposition to the scheme within the Conservative Party.

His chief adviser Dominic Cummings called HS2 a "disaster zone" last summer, while several MPs who represent constituencies that could be affected by the building works are also against the project.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has defended the right of Tory MPs to oppose the plan, saying they were entitled to represent the views of their constituents.

Former Conservative cabinet minister David Lidington, said he feared HS2 was "20th Century technology and infrastructure for a 21st Century economy".

Labour peer Lord Berkeley - former deputy chairman of the project's independent review - said HS2 would not help commuters in the north, but would be good for people travelling between London and Birmingham.

Environmental groups say HS2 will boost carbon emissions and spoil areas of natural beauty.

In 2015, it was estimated that the cost of HS2 would be £56bn, but a review has warned that it could rise to as much as £106bn.

Work to prepare the ground for the first phase of HS2 linking London and Birmingham has been going on for years. But a green light from the government means construction of the railway will begin relatively soon.

It is also expected that work on the line between Birmingham and Crewe will be rolled into the first phase. It had originally been slated to begin at a later stage.

Construction on the second phase of the project, originally planned to link Crewe to Manchester and Birmingham with Leeds, is at a much earlier stage.

The BBC has been told that the government will commission a further review of this part of the line to find ways of making it more affordable.

It also wants to ensure that these lines can be better integrated into the existing railway network along with other planned upgrades such as Northern Powerhouse Rail, which aims to improve east-west links across the north of England.

What is the HS2 route?

The initial plan was for a new railway line between London and the West Midlands carrying 400m-long (1,300ft) trains, with as many as 1,100 seats per train.

The line would enable trains to reach speeds of up to 250mph and would run as often as 14 times an hour in each direction.

This would be followed by a V-shaped second phase taking services from Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds.

The Department for Transport (DfT) has said that the project will triple the capacity of trains across the entire route.

According to the latest estimates, the first stage would be completed between 2028 and 2031 - long after the original opening date of 2026.

Meanwhile, the second stage would be ready in 2035-2040.

The announcement on High Speed 2 broadly mirrors some of the main recommendations from the government's still unpublished review into the project.

I've read the full report and it emphasises that any significant changes to the first phase of HS2, linking London to Birmingham, would have caused further delays.

No-one in government wanted that.

The Crewe to Manchester and Birmingham to Leeds phase will undergo another review because it is at such an early stage, and ministers believe savings can be found. They also want the high-speed lines to be better integrated with our existing rail network and future infrastructure projects.

Politics and pledges to voters in the north of England and the Midlands was a big part of this decision. But so too was the amount of work which has already been done on the first phase of the project.

Ultimately, the government felt that turning back wasn't an option.

Its much higher price tag has made HS2 politically toxic, so the government is also announcing a massive cash injection for buses and cycling in England.

I'm told that figures within government who weren't sold on HS2 wanted those other transport pledges at the same time.

Why have the costs and timetable slipped so far off track?

Essentially, because they were over-optimistic in the first place.

The National Audit Office has warned in successive reports over a number of years that HS2 had an "unrealistic timetable".

In its most recent analysis, it said that the risks of the project were never properly assessed when initial costs were estimated.

HS2 began under the Labour government in 2009, but the cost has continued to balloon under subsequent administrations.

What are the proposed advantages of HS2?

Once it is built, journeys will be shorter. London-to-Birmingham travel times will be cut from one hour 21 minutes to 52 minutes, according to the DfT.

And while it is being built, it is expected to create thousands of jobs and provide a stimulus to economic growth.

Darren Caplan, head of the Railway Industry Association. told the BBC that the line would also "increase capacity on the East Coast Main Line, the Midlands Main Line and the West Coast Main Line. There are benefits all round".

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Government to give High Speed 2 the go-ahead

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The government is set to approve the controversial High Speed 2 (HS2) rail project, the BBC has learned. An announcement on the route linking London to Birmingham, and then on to Manchester and Leeds, is expected by the prime minister on Tuesday.

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What a difference a year makes in London. Whole areas are rearranged in the blink of an eye and the streets you used to be able to wander down without a guide are rendered unrecognisable.

If so much can alter in a year, looking back on how the city used to be a decade ago is sure to shock some faithful Londoners.

To celebrate the fifteenth anniversary of Google Maps, here's a selection of before-and-after pictures of different areas of the capital that show how much our usual haunts have changed over the years...

Blackfriars

Prior to its facelift, Blackfriars didn't carry the same wow factor as other more polished areas of the city. Now, the bustling station has been redesigned and is encased in a sleek all-glass exterior.

King's Cross

For decades King's Cross represented the grittier side of London. It was synonymous with grey concrete, urban decay, railway infrastructure and empty warehouses. A vested effort to regenerate the area began around 2008, and now it's unrecognisable from its previous image, with new buildings, public spaces, parks and shops.

Borough

The Shard was just a twinkle in an architect's eye in 2008 when Borough was known for its quaint Georgian terraces and famous market. Now, the glass building is officially the tallest structure in London, dominating the skyline from every possible vantage point in the city.

The City

The Leadenhall building has been a key feature of the London skyline since construction began in 2011. Its angular design and distinctive wedge shape inspired its adorable nickname, the Cheesegrater.

Completed in 2011, 110 Bishopsgate (also popularly known as Heron Tower) is the tallest building in the City of London and third tallest in Greater London.

Canary Wharf

The business mecca has gone through some serious changes in the last decade and erected more towering buildings than you'd ever think would fit in one small space, including One Canada Square, the second tallest building in the city.

Waterloo Bridge

The view from Waterloo Bridge shows just how much the city skyline has changed. Familiar sites such as the Shard, the Leadenhall building, the Gherkin, and Heron Tower are now as much a visual part of London as the Thames.
Love those views? Here are eight places you can see the London skyline for free. See the city from a different perspective at one of these great rooftop bars.

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These Google Maps pics prove just how much London has changed in the last decade

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What a difference a year makes in London. Whole areas are rearranged in the blink of an eye and the streets you used to be able to wander down without a guide are rendered unrecognisable. If so much can alter in a year, looking back on how the city used to be a decade ago is sure to shock some faithful Londoners.

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To understand the resources of the near future, geologists need to understand the volcanoes of the distant past. Exploration of ancient magma chambers in places such as Greenland has the potential to provide new sources of the rare metals that underpin modern green technologies.

Many rare metals - such as neodymium, niobium and dysprosium - essential to the production of wind turbines and electric cars, are mined from fossil volcanoes.

Volcanoes are nature's way of bringing material from deep within the earth up to the surface. Melting processes within the mantle - the interior part of the Earth between the super-heated core and the thin outer crust - produce magma which rises up hundreds of kilometres and eventually erupts on to the surface as volcanoes.

The earth's crust is made up of semi-rigid tectonic plates which move around and collide to form mountains or sink underneath one another at regions called subduction zones. The volume of material brought to the Earth's surface by volcanoes is balanced by similar amounts of material going back into the mantle via sinking tectonic plates.

This points to what we call "element cycles", where material from depth comes up to the surface via volcanoes and then returns again to the mantle via subduction. One of the big questions in Earth Sciences is what happens to this subducted material and how long it resides in the mantle.

Our recent research studied a group of ancient volcanoes in southern Greenland. Around 1.3 billion years ago, Greenland was a volcanic landscape with deep rift valleys much like modern East Africa. Substantial volcanoes erupted on to the land surface and major river systems similar to the Nile carried minerals from these volcanoes over huge areas.

The rivers and volcanoes in Greenland are now long eroded, but the sediments that the river transported can still be found, and the volcanic "plumbing systems" that operated beneath these ancient volcanoes have preserved samples of the magmas that erupted.

We wanted to understand how element cycling relates to the concentration of critical metals in these ancient volcanoes in Greenland. While it is useful to study the valuable elements themselves, sometimes we can learn more about Earth's element cycles by studying other elements associated with them.

In our study we used the element sulphur of which there are four stable forms (called isotopes). Each has a slightly different mass. This is important because natural processes can selectively separate lighter isotopes from heavier isotopes. Much like snacking on a bag of M&M's where you prefer the red ones and leave behind the brown M&Ms, geological processes lead to variations in the relative abundances of each element in different materials.

By measuring the amount of isotope in rocks, we can learn about the processes that formed them. Sulphur isotopes are particularly useful because bio- and geochemical processes on the Earth's surface (at low temperatures) are very efficient at modifying sulphur signatures, whereas magmatic processes (at high temperatures) do not create much variation between light and heavy sulphur.

So the variations in sulphur signatures in magmatic rocks allow us to fingerprint traces of recycled crustal material in the mantle source. By choosing volcanoes that were active at different periods of geological time, we reconstruct how the mantle composition and sulphur cycling have varied over Earth's history.

Geologists have known for a long time that Earth's surface has changed profoundly over the past 4.5 billion years as life emerged and became progressively more complex. The increasing imprint of life on the sulphur cycle has dramatically changed the sulphur isotope ratio of sediments at the surface of the Earth, but this imprint has not previously been documented in rocks from the mantle.

Our work shows for the first time that the sulphur signature of the Earth's mantle changed in a manner that broadly matches the changes in sulphur on the Earth's surface. Biological and atmospheric impacts on the surface sulphur signature appear to have been transferred all the way into the Earth's interior.

This means that the Earth's surface and mantle are strongly connected - one responding to changes in the other - although timescales of this recycling remain unknown. Our data show that sulphur that was once on the Earth's surface went back into the mantle through tectonic plate activity and then - 1.3 billion years ago - found itself coming back to the surface in the Greenland volcanoes. It's like geological déjà-vu.
One cycle or many?
How many times has sulphur been recycled between the Earth's crust and mantle over geological time? We do not currently know the answer to this but our research paints a picture of the Earth as a global element conveyor belt with surface sulphur and mantle closely linked.

The study has many implications. A major question in geology is how rare metal deposits form, particularly the high-tech metals that are essential for the green energy revolution. The story from sulphur seems to be consistent with our work on other isotopes. For example, one of the world's biggest deposits of the element tantalum (used in electronics and also concentrated in one of the ancient volcanoes in Greenland) has isotopic fingerprints that also hint at crustal recycling.

It may be that these global cycles have taken elements from surface to mantle and back again many times, effectively concentrating those elements each time. The global cycle that we have documented in sulphur may be an essential precursor to generate the metal deposits that are crucial to modern technologies. By understanding plate tectonics and magmatic processes that took place billions of years ago, we gain insights into how to identify and understand the mineral resources of the future.

World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with our Terms of Use.

This article is published in collaboration with The Conversation.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

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How volcanoes can teach us a thing or two about renewable energy

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To understand the resources of the near future, geologists need to understand the volcanoes of the distant past. Exploration of ancient magma chambers in places such as Greenland has the potential to provide new sources of the rare metals that underpin modern green technologies.

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It's perhaps the best known and more worrisome of climate feedback loops: As the planet warms, permafrost-landscapes of frozen soil and rock-begins to thaw. And when it does, microbes consume organic matter, releasing CO ₂ and methane into the atmosphere, leading to more warming, more thawing, and even more carbon emissions.

But here's something you've probably never heard of, and it's something not even the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has really considered: thermokarst. That's the land that gets ravaged whenever permafrost thaws rapidly. As the ice that holds the soil together disappears, hillsides collapse and massive sinkholes open up. Climate scientists have been working gradual permafrost thaw into their models-changes that run centimeters deep over decades or centuries. But abrupt permafrost thaw happens on the scale of meters over months or years. That shocks the surrounding landscape into releasing potentially even more carbon than would have if it thawed at a more leisurely pace.

Today in the journal Nature Geoscience, researchers argue that without taking abrupt thaws into account, we're underestimating the impact of permafrost thaw by 50 percent. "The amount of carbon coming off that very narrow amount of abrupt thaw in the landscape, that small area, is still large enough to double the climate consequences and the permafrost carbon feedback," says study lead author Merritt Turetsky, of the University of Guelph and University of Colorado Boulder.

Less than 20 percent of northern permafrost land is susceptible to this kind of rapid thaw. Some permafrost is simply frozen rock, or even sand. But the kind we're worried about here contains a whole lot of water. "Where permafrost tends to be lake sediment or organic soils, the type of earth material that can hold a lot of water, these are like sponges on the landscape," says Turetsky. "When you have thaw, we see really dynamic and rapid changes."

That's because frozen water takes up more space than liquid water. When permafrost thaws, it loses a good amount of its volume. Think of it like thawing ice cubes made of water and muck: If you defrost the tray, the greenery will sink to the bottom and settle. "That's exactly what happens in these ecosystems when the permafrost has a lot of ice in it and it thaws," says Turetsky. "Whatever was at the surface just slumps right down to the bottom. So you get these pits on the land, sometimes meters deep. They're like sinkholes developing in the land."

"Essentially, we're taking terra firma and making it terra soupy," Turetsky adds.

As the earth turns to soup, the landscape begins to scar. The process is so rapid and so violent, Turetsky says, that sometimes when she returns to a site she's monitoring to check her temperature and methane sensors, she'll find they are gone. "When you come back in, it's a lake and there's three meters of water at the surface. You have to probably say goodbye to your equipment," she says.

When these lands thaw, they play host to a number of processes. As ice turns to liquid water, trees flood and die off. Thus more light reaches the soil, further accelerating thawing. This is in contrast to gradual thaw, when the plant community largely stays the same as the ice thaws. Defrosted soil at the surface gets thicker and thicker, but it doesn't catastrophically collapse.

In addition, when you think of permafrost regions, you might think of featureless tundras, but most is actually boreal forest. These northern forests have recently seen an unprecedented number of wildfires. "Much of the boreal forest burns more and more often, and when the ecosystem burns, it can actually accelerate the permafrost thaw," says David Olefeldt of University of Alberta, coauthor on the paper. Without cover from these trees to shade it, the soil warms ever more intensely.

Abrupt warming also exacerbates emissions from permafrost. In a gradual thaw, the warming top layers of the soil open up to hungry microbes, which consume nutrients and give off CO ₂. "In the summer, permafrost-the top layer at least-thaws, and then cracks can build," says Northern Arizona University biogeochemist and plant ecophysiologist Christina Schaedel, who collaborates with the authors of this new paper, but wasn't involved in the work. In the fall it freezes back up, creating a cycle in which soil layers get mixed down to the bedrock, concentrating carbon at the bottom. "With abrupt thaw, you're exposing deeper layers to much warmer temperatures, and deep layers in permafrost can contain very high amounts of carbon," Schaedel says.

This can become particularly problematic from an emissions standpoint if the collapsed land forms a pond of water with low oxygen content, and with a layer of rich carbon at the bottom. The microbes that thrive in this kind of environment produce methane as a byproduct, a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO ₂.

Here's an important consideration: When permafrost melts abruptly, it doesn't just release carbon and then retire. That ecosystem can heal and begin sequestering carbon again. If the land has thawed, then collapsed and become inundated with water, new trees can't grow. Instead, that ecosystem is likely to become dominated by mosses and grass-like sedges. Because the plant material is waterlogged, decomposition actually slows as it forms peat-thick, mucky, layers of organic matter.

"So this rapid post-thaw peat accumulation that happens is eventually how it recovers some of the carbon that was lost," says USGS research geologist Miriam Jones, coauthor on the new paper. "But I will say that in the permafrost, carbon has accumulated over millennia. And so upon thaw, it's rapidly lost within years to decades."

It will take centuries or millennia, depending on the ecosystem, to sequester all that carbon again. And of course in the Arctic, which is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, the composition of vegetal species that make up some of its ecosystems are transforming, in turn changing how they sequester carbon.

The more closely scientists can parse what happens when permafrost thaws rapidly, the better they account for how these landscapes emit greenhouse gases-and eventually sequester some, too. The bad news is, the emissions could be the equivalent of an entire industrialized nation's greenhouse output. The better news is, it won't be as much as humanity's global toll. "Even though these are hot spots of carbon release, it's going to take decades for those hot spots to become large enough to seriously impact the climate system," says Turetsky. "But this is still something we need to take seriously."

And it's something that needs far more research. Any climate modeling comes with inherent uncertainties-there's no way to perfectly represent such complex systems. The uncertainty here is projecting how much land might succumb to abrupt thawing, says University of Alaska Fairbanks permafrost geophysicist Vladimir Romanovsky, who wasn't involved in the work. Scientists have only begun to study these rapid thaw events, which often happen at extremely small scales.

"It's very difficult in this particular case to use the past to predict the future," says Romanovsky. "That's understandable, and definitely there are some ways to try to narrow down this uncertainty. But that uncertainty will be there for forever, because of the limitation of all the models to predict this process in the future, in particular the entire area of permafrost existence."

What's clear, though, is that ecosystems in the Arctic are literally in upheaval. And the faster we cut emissions, the less they will suffer.

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Permafrost Is Thawing So Fast, It's Gouging Holes in the Arctic

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It's perhaps the best known and more worrisome of climate feedback loops: As the planet warms, permafrost-landscapes of frozen soil and rock-begins to thaw. And when it does, microbes consume organic matter, releasing CO 2 and methane into the atmosphere, leading to more warming, more thawing, and even more carbon emissions.

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CUBA is the most sustainably developed country in the world, according to a new report launched today.

The socialist island outperforms advanced capitalist countries including Britain and the United States, which has subjected Cuba to a punitive six-decades-long economic blockade.

The Sustainable Development Index (SDI), designed by anthropologist and author Dr Jason Hickel, calculates its results by dividing a nation's "human development" score, obtained by looking at statistics on life expectancy, health and education, by its "ecological overshoot," the extent to which the per capita carbon footprint exceeds Earth's natural limits.

Countries with strong human development and a lower environmental impact score highly, but countries with poorer life expectancies and literacy rates as well as those which exceed ecological limits are marked down.

Based on the most recent figures, from 2015, Cuba is top with a score of 0.859, while Venezuela is 12th and Argentina 18th.

The SDI was created to update the Human Development Index (HDI), developed by Pakistani economist Mahbub ul Haq and used by the United Nations Development Programme to produce its annual reports since 1990.

The HDI considers life expectancy, education and gross national income per capita, but ignores environmental degradation caused by the economic growth of top performers such as Britain and the US.

"These countries are major contributors to climate change and other forms of ecological breakdown, which disproportionately affects the poorer countries of the global South, where climate change is already causing hunger rates to rise," Mr Hickel said.

"In this sense, the HDI promotes a model of development that is empirically incompatible with ecology and which embodies a fundamental contradiction: achieving high development according to HDI means driving de-development elsewhere in the world. For a development indicator that purports to be universal, such a contradiction is indefensible."

Britain, ranked 14th in 2018's HDI, falls to 131st in the SDI, while the US, 13th in the ul Haq index, is 159th out of 163 countries featured in the new system.

Mr Hickel added: "The SDI ranking reveals that all countries are still "developing" - countries with the highest levels of human development still need to significantly reduce their ecological impact, while countries with the lowest levels of ecological impact still need to significantly improve their performance on social indicators."
The SDI is available at sustainabledevelopmentindex.org.

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Cuba found to be the most sustainably developed country in the world, new research finds

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CUBA is the most sustainably developed country in the world, according to a new report launched today. The socialist island outperforms advanced capitalist countries including Britain and the United States, which has subjected Cuba to a punitive six-decades-long economic blockade.

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Tsunami warning issued for Jamaica and Cuba after 7.3-magnitude quake

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Huge 7.7-magnitude earthquake hits Caribbean leaving trail of damage and sparking tsunami warning as buildings in Miami are evacuated and 'sewage' spills into streets in the Cayman Islands

The 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck at 2.10pm EST Tuesday in the strait between Jamaica and Cuba

The quake's epicenter was about 72 miles northwest of Lucea, Jamaica, at a depth of 6.2 miles

The quake caused extensive damage but no deaths or injuries have yet been reported

Buildings in Jamaica and Cuba were evacuated after people reported feeling tremors for about a minute

The quake was felt as far away as Miami, where several downtown skyscrapers were evacuated

Later a 6.1-magnitude aftershock struck off coast of Cayman Islands, followed by dozens more aftershocks

A huge 7.7-magnitude earthquake hit the Caribbean on Tuesday between Jamaica and Cuba, leaving a trail of destruction and sparking a brief tsunami alert, with evacuations throughout the region.

The tremors were felt as far as the US mainland, where police in Miami evacuated some buildings as a precaution.

No deaths or injuries have been reported and the extent of the damage is still emerging as new images show massive sinkholes opened up on roads in the Cayman Islands and residents say what appears to be sewage is spilling out of broken pipes.

The US Geological Survey said the quake hit at a depth of six miles at 2:10 pm (1910 GMT) - 78 miles northwest of Lucea, Jamaica.

Hours later, a 6.1 magnitude aftershock hit off the coast of the Cayman Islands, part of a cluster of more than a dozen aftershocks which were mainly in the four-to-five magnitude range and lasted well into the evening, the USGS said.

The US Pacific Tsunami Warning Center initially warned there was a threat of tsunami waves reaching 0.3 to one meter (about one to three feet) above tide level for the coasts of Jamaica, Belize, Cuba, Honduras, Mexico and the Cayman Islands. But it lifted the alert update about two hours later.

The first, bigger quake rattled several tall buildings in the Cuban capital Havana, which were immediately evacuated.

The earthquake was felt in several provinces including Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba in the east, Cienfuegos in the center and Havana in the northwest, the official Cubadebate website reported.

But there were no preliminary reports of damage or injuries.

Jawara Rawjers, a resident of Kingston, Jamaica told AFP: 'I felt the house trembling and realized that it was a quake.

'It lasted about 20 seconds. I checked my watch and it was 2:12 pm. I checked on my family but they didn't feel anything in their part of the house.'

Machel Emanuel, a doctor in the same city, added: 'I was on the second floor of a building and there was a sustained shaking of the building. I felt dizzy. The door was slamming consistently for a while.'

Many Jamaicans took to social media in the immediate aftermath to post pictures, unverified by AFP, of swimming pools shaking violently.

In Miami, police said buildings were being evacuated as a precaution after reports of tremors being felt in some areas of the city.

Claude Diedrick, 71, who owns a fencing business in Montego Bay, Jamaica, about 86 miles southeast of the epicenter, told AP he was sitting in his vehicle reading when the earth began to sway.

'It felt to me like i was on a bridge and like there were two or three heavy trucks and the bridge was rocking but there were no trucks,' he said.

Diedrick said he had not seen any serious damage in the area.

Strong shaking was reported in Santiago, the largest city in eastern Cuba.

'We were all sitting and we felt the chairs move,' Belkis Guerrero, who work's at a Catholic cultural center in the heart of Santiago, told AP. 'We heard the noise of everything moving around.'

Guerrero said there was no apparent damage in the center of the colonial city.

'It felt very strong but it doesn't look like anything happened,' she said.

The Cayman Islands Disaster Management Agency warned citizens who are near the shore to 'evacuate vertically' as a precaution.

Tremors felt on the island, which sits about 155 miles from the epicenter, reportedly left cracks in the road and what appeared to be sewage spilling from cracked mains.

Dr Stenette Davis, a psychiatrist at a Cayman Islands hospital, told AP she had seen manhole covers blown off by the force of the quake and sewage exploding into the street, but no more serious damage.

USGS initially reported that the earthquake was a 7.3, but it was upgraded after people as far as Miami, Florida, said they felt tremors.

The epicenter was directly on the Cayman Trough, which is part of the Gonave plate.

It was relatively shallow at about six miles below the surface of the ocean, prompting fears of damage as shallower quakes tend to be more destructive.

If the magnitude of 7.7 is confirmed, it would be the largest since an 8.0 quake in Peru that killed two people and injured 30 last May.

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Tsunami warning issued for Jamaica and Cuba after 7.3-magnitude quake

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The 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck at 2.10pm EST Tuesday in the strait between Jamaica and Cuba The quake's epicenter was about 72 miles northwest of Lucea, Jamaica, at a depth of 6.2 miles The quake caused extensive damage but no deaths or injuries have yet been reported Buildings in Jamaica and

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A powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake in the sea between Jamaica and Cuba has triggered a tsunami warning for parts of the Caribbean.

The powerful tremor struck 72 miles (117 km) northwest of the coastal town of Lucea at a relatively shallow depth of around six miles (10 km), the US Geological Survey (USGS) said.

The International Tsunami Information Center warned that "hazardous tsunami waves" could occur "within 186 miles (300 km) of the epicenter along the coasts of Jamaica... Cayman Islands and Cuba."

It said waves of up to three feet (1m) could also land on the coasts of Mexico, Belize and Honduras, before announcing the tsunami warning had passed around 90 minutes later.

"The tsunami threat has now largely passed," the centre said.

The quake was centred in the sea, 86 miles (139 km) northwest of Montego Bay and around the same distance from Niquero, Cuba.

It hit at 2.10pm local time (7.10pm GMT) and was initially measured at 7.3 magnitude before being upgraded.

Buildings shook in Miami while several South Florida buildings were evacuated as a precaution, city officials said.

No injuries or road closures have been reported.

The quake was felt in several provinces of Cuba, the island's government said, but it was not strongly felt in the capital of Havana.

Officials said there were no immediate reports of damage or injuries.

The quake could be felt strongly in Santiago, according to Belkis Guerrero, who works in the centre of the southeastern city.

"We were all sitting and we felt the chairs move. We heard the noise of everything moving around. It felt very strong but it doesn't look like anything happened,'' she told The Associated Press.

An aftershock measured at 6.5-magnitude was felt in in the Cayman Islands, the USGS said, but there were no reports of deaths, injuries or damage to buildings, a spokeswoman for the territory's Disaster Management Agency said.

But there were reports of sinkholes appearing, the agency added, as it urged people to "evacuate vertically" in strong multi-storey buildings.

Teacher Hannah Smye, 37, felt "the whole room moving" during her French class at Cayman Prep and High School on Grand Cayman.

She told her 25-strong class of 10 and 11-year-olds to get under the classroom tables, which themselves were shaking.

Luckily she said, the room was on the second floor and they had practiced what to do in an earthquake two years ago.

The ordeal, she said, lasted around two minutes after which she took her class outside and waited for parents to arrive to collect their children.

Her own child, Leonora, who is nearly two, was having lunch at home with her partner Tyrone, who grabbed the little girl and "dived under the table".

People did report some damage to buildings and to a swimming pool at a resort in the south of the island, Angie Watler, a spokeswoman for police on Cayman Brac, the island nearest the epicenter of the quake, said.

Videos on social media, apparently from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, showed water sloshing out of pools during the quake.

Ms Watler said there were no reports so far of injuries but that authorities were still making checks on the area.

Dr Stenette Davis, said she had seen manhole covers blown off by the force of the quake, and sewage exploding into the street, but no more serious damage.

There are so few earthquakes on the Cayman Islands, staff in the Cayman Compass newspaper were puzzled when it hit, editor-in-chief Kevin Morales said.

"It was just like a big dump truck was rolling past. Then it continued and got more intense."

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Powerful earthquake triggers tsunami warning off Jamaican coast

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A powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake in the sea between Jamaica and Cuba has triggered a tsunami warning for parts of the Caribbean. The powerful tremor struck 72 miles (117 km) northwest of the coastal town of Lucea at a relatively shallow depth of around six miles (10 km), the US Geological Survey (USGS) said.

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Zero-carbon hydrogen injected into gas grid for first time in groundbreaking UK trial

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Zero-carbon hydrogen has been injected into a UK gas network for the first time in a groundbreaking trial that could help to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

The 20% hydrogen and natural gas blend is being used to heat 100 homes and 30 faculty buildings at Keele University in Staffordshire. Unlike natural gas, when hydrogen is burned it produces heat and water as opposed to carbon dioxide.

"Heat hasn't been particularly decarbonised to date and it's a very big challenge," said Lorna Millington, the future networks manager at Cadent, the gas distribution network that led the £7m HyDeploy project. "The aim was to turn the theoretical evidence into something real and tangible that the consumers within the Keele network are now getting to experience every day."

Heating homes and businesses accounts for half of the UK's energy consumption and a third of its carbon dioxide emissions. Rolling the 20% hydrogen blend out across the country could save about 6m tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions a year, the equivalent of taking 2.5m cars off the road.

The hydrogen is captured using an electrolyser, which runs electricity through water to split it back into hydrogen and oxygen. This can then be injected into existing modern gas networks, with no need for customers to change appliances or pipework.

The Health and Safety Executive granted the project exemption in 2018 from the current 0.1% limit on hydrogen in the UK gas network after an extensive examination of evidence to ensure it would be safe. Keele University was identified as an ideal location, because it owns and operates a private gas network that can be isolated from the main network.

Two years of preparation involved gas safety checks on all buildings in the trial, laboratory tests on gas appliances and research on the effect of hydrogen on materials found in the gas network.

All appliances sold after 1996 must be able to sustain 23% hydrogen under current regulations. "The materials we use in our network are actually more than capable of dealing with the levels of hydrogen that we were looking at," said Millington.

The trial will run until July and if successful a pilot will be rolled out in the north-east to deliver the 20% hydrogen blend to 670 domestic and commercial properties in Winlaton, Gateshead.

Mark Horsley, the chief executive officer at Northern Gas Networks, said: "We're really excited about the opportunity. There is a strong groundswell for decarbonisation, and I think opportunities for each individual home to contribute to that is quite powerful."

The pilot, the first of its kind in the UK, would start in December and run for 10 months. Customers have already been notified about the upcoming change. "Early indications are that it's going to be very positively received," said Horsley.

The project is part of global exploration into the potentials of a "hydrogen economy", in which the gas could also be used to generate electricity and produce heat with benefits for transport, heavy industry and domestic energy use.

The energy needed to produce hydrogen from water can be provided by solar, hydro or wind power to produce "green hydrogen", but there are challenges in doing so at scale.

It still may be some time before the technology can be rolled out nationally, but "the 20% is a massive step forward for us as an industry and for the UK in achieving that net zero goal", Horsley said.
Topics

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Zero-carbon hydrogen injected into gas grid for first time in groundbreaking UK trial

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Zero-carbon hydrogen has been injected into a UK gas network for the first time in a groundbreaking trial that could help to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The 20% hydrogen and natural gas blend is being used to heat 100 homes and 30 faculty buildings at Keele University in Staffordshire.

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Cacao not gold: ‘chocolate trees’ offer future to Amazon tribes

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The villagers walk down the grassy landing strip, past the wooden hut housing the health post and into the thick forest, pointing out the seedlings they planted along the way. For these Ye'kwana indigenous men, the skinny saplings, less than a metre high, aren't just baby cacao trees but green shoots of hope in a land scarred by the violence, pollution and destruction wrought by illegal gold prospecting. That hope is chocolate.

"We want to plant and develop income for the community," says Júlio Ye'kwana, 39, president of the Ye'kwana people's Wanasseduume association, which came up with the idea. "And it is not destructive for the forest."

In the last two years, thousands of Theobroma cacao trees have been planted near Waikás and other villages in the remote Yanomami indigenous reserve. The saplings were planted within the forest because cacao likes shade, an idea borrowed from agroforestry techniques successfully used for cacao elsewhere in the Amazon.

Villagers hope that within a few years rich, organic chocolate will be produced from the golden cacao fruit these trees bear. The project - run by the reserve's indigenous associations Wanasseduume and Hutukara with Brazilian non-profit group Instituto Socioambiental (ISA) - is ambitious, but experts say it is based on a potential commercial reality.

'Like a bomb going off': why Brazil's largest reserve is facing destruction

Located in the far north of the Brazilian Amazon, Yanomami is Brazil's biggest indigenous reserve, spread over 9.6 million hectares (23.7m acres). But its wild, mountainous forests are overrun by an estimated 20,000 wildcat goldminers, called garimpeiros.

Ye'kwana and Yanomami indigenous leaders called for the garimpeiros to be expelled with a letter and group photo later shared by actor Leonardo DiCaprio.

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A barge used by illegal miners to suck up mud and extract gold particles, hidden near the Uraricoera River. Photograph: João Laet/The Guardian

But the country's far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, has claimed that indigenous people really yearn for white society's consumer lifestyles, said the Yanomami reserve is too big for its population and may be sued for racism by the Brazilian Indigenous People's Association after comments during a Facebook Live broadcast this week. "The indigenous changed, they are evolving," he said. "Indigenous are increasingly becoming human beings just like us."

"The president says indigenous people are poor. We are not poor. Nobody goes hungry here," says Júlio Ye'kwana. "We eat for free."

The Guardian was invited to visit by the Hutukara Yanomami Association, founded by Davi Kopenawa, a leader and shaman who fought to create the reserve with photographer Claudia Andujar and non-profit group Survival International.

Five villages from both tribes are participating in the cacao project. Cacao trees are native in this area, but around 3,000 new seedlings have been planted to boost production, with 7,000 expected by the end of 2021.

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Edmilson Estevão shows a ripe cacao fruit. Photograph: João Laet/The Guardian

Edmilson Estevão shins up a mature cacao tree to bring down some of the heavy yellow fruit. Inside each thick shell is a sticky cluster of seeds, packed in a sweet, delicious, pale paste. These are dried and roasted to make chocolate.

"One tree like this can bear up to 20 fruit," says Estevão, 33, who was raised in Waikás and works for Wanasseduume.

These mature trees were planted more than a decade ago by Luiz Ye'kwana. He was murdered by garimpeiros after refusing to transport them upriver, villagers say.

Violence is a recurrent problem around garimpeiros, as becomes graphically evident the next day. Outside the health post, two garimpeiros are wrapping a dead body in a tarpaulin. The dead man was known as Eduardo at Tatuzão, the illegal gold mining camp two hours' boat ride upstream. But everybody uses an alias there. The nurse who fought to save his life discovered that his real name was Ralf Cabral and he was 21. The garimpeiros say he shot himself.

His eyes are wide open, he is dressed in black football shorts, and there is a bandage over the bullet hole in his chest. "He's been here for five months, and now he's done this," says Manoel dos Santos, 49, wrapping Cabral's body. "I have no idea why."

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The aftermath of illegal goldmining. Photograph: João Laet/The Guardian

The health post was built by the Brazilian government to serve the village's 150 Ye'kwana people, but also handles hundreds of garimpeiro cases each year, including miscarriages, malaria, snake bites, broken limbs, knife and gunshot wounds. "It's a war here," says Giselle Dornellas, 33, the nurse who kept Cabral alive for 12 hours.

Garimpo gold is seductive and buys televisions and phones. Four villagers work as boat pilots, others deliver food, and even the village community centre was built with garimpo money.

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Cacao seeds, which are dried and roasted to make chocolate. Photograph: João Laet/The Guardian

But the cacao project will offer an alternative, says its coordinator, ISA anthropologist Moreno Saraiva. "We're trying to build another possible future," he says. "It will take five years, but if we don't do this now there will never be another alternative."

The project was inspired by another ISA project that since 2016 has produced edible mushrooms in other Yanomami villages. On paper the cacao project makes sense. Most of the world's cacao production is in Africa, but the plant is native to the Amazon and was domesticated in South America 4,000 years ago. The Aztecs used the beans as money. And a Spanish map from 1775 called the Yanomami area the " Pais de los cacaguales " - or "Cacao Land".

"You have a traditional and well-spread presence of native cocoa trees," says food researcher Roberto Smeraldi, vice-president of the Atá Institute founded by Alex Atala - the Michelin starred Brazilian chef renowned for using ingredients from the Amazon.

Smeraldi recruited César de Mendes, a chocolate specialist based near the Amazon city of Belém for the cacao project. ISA and the indigenous associations organised well-attended workshops with de Mendes in Waikás in 2018 and 2019 to show villagers how cacao seeds are processed to make chocolate.

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It will take five years for the cacao project to be fully operational, but it offers an alternative to illegal mining. Photograph: João Laet/The Guardian

Fruit from mature Yanomami cacao trees was used to produce a trial run. A thousand 50g barsof the bitter, delicious Yanomami chocolate quickly sold out at an event in São Paulo last December, despite a £9.20 price tag. Customers were happy to pay to compensate for the destruction caused by garimpo, de Mendes says. Profits went to both indigenous associations.

"I am not being much of a businessman, I am being more an activist," de Mendes says. "We are selling to an aware public."

He learned his trade from his grandmother, who made her own chocolate in an Amazon riverside community, and singles out the Yanomami chocolate's notes of almond oil and flowers, light acidity and sweetness. "These give this cacao its own personality," he says.

Smeraldi argues that the Yanomami cacao's origins in this isolated jungle could make its genetic properties attractive to the world cacao industry, which is vulnerable to climate change and blights such as the witches' broom fungus which ravaged cacao plantations in the state of Bahia three decades ago.

And the chocolate's strong, persistent taste could find its niche in the booming, specialist chocolate market, he says. Distinct fruits and flavours are increasingly sought out, as happened with wine when customers graduated from ordering "red" or "white" to specific grapes and countries. "It is a product of high complexity," Smeraldi says.

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Cacao not gold: 'chocolate trees' offer future to Amazon tribes

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The villagers walk down the grassy landing strip, past the wooden hut housing the health post and into the thick forest, pointing out the seedlings they planted along the way. For these Ye'kwana indigenous men, the skinny saplings, less than a metre high, aren't just baby cacao trees but green shoots of hope in a land scarred by the violence, pollution and destruction wrought by illegal gold prospecting.

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Northern rail to be renationalised – and some Beeching closures could reopen

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Ministers will pledge to reopen closed rail lines in the north this week as the government prepares to renationalise the failed Northern franchise.

The promise of hundreds of millions in investment to restore some lines axed in the Beeching closures in the early 1960s will come at about the same time as the expected announcement of the termination of the Northern franchise, operated by Arriva.

Blyth Valley, a former Labour stronghold in the north-east that turned Conservative in the election and presaged the collapse of the "red wall", is likely to be among the first places to benefit from the reopening of passenger services.

The decision to renationalise Northern, which the transport secretary, Grant Shapps, is due to deliver by Thursday, is likely to be welcomed in the north, but it represents another embarrassing failure of the privatised rail system.

Northern politicians and transport bodies said a possible short-term management contract for Arriva - still yet to be officially ruled out by Shapps - would be unacceptable, leaving it almost certain that it will become the second major franchise to be renationalised by the Conservatives in less than two years. The state-owned "operator of last resort", which has run LNER since June 2018, would take over the running of Northern.

The franchise was awarded in 2016, but plans to improve services have foundered on the back of delays to infrastructure, including track electrification, and a long-running dispute with unions leading to widespread strikes. Punctuality and reliability collapsed around the introduction of the May 2018 timetable and have largely failed to recover.

The results of the national rail passenger survey, due on Tuesday morning, are - despite official questions over its statistical relevance - likely to highlight increasing dissatisfaction with the Deutsche Bahn-owned train operator, as well as widespread discontent around the network.

But in an effort to regain political impetus, and following the promise of "levelling up" the regions post-Brexit, the Department for Transport will this week set out details of lines that could be reopened.

Earlier this month, Shapps visited Blyth, where he discussed a £100m council blueprint for the reintroduction of passenger services on a Northumberland rail line linking Newcastle to Ashington via Blyth, currently partly used for freight services. He said there was £500m set aside for reopening lines.

A project to restore the line linking Poulton-le-Fylde, nearBlackpool, to Fleetwood, visited by Boris Johnson in November on the election campaign, is also likely to be a prime candidate for funding.

It could be the second time in a little over two years that the government has talked of reversing Beeching cuts to mask the collapse of a rail franchise. In November 2017, the plan to reopen old lines was announced by Chris Grayling, the then transport secretary, on the same day the government published plans to rip up the Virgin-Stagecoach East Coast rail franchise - which was eventually nationalised in June 2018.

Grayling invited proposals from local partners to pitch for funds to reopen lines where there was a strong business case.

More than 4,000 miles of track were removed from the British railway - about a third of the entire network at the time - on the guidance of the reports by Richard Beeching in the 1960s.

Labour's shadow transport secretary, Andy McDonald, said: "The Tory claim to be reversing the Beeching cuts is risible. Passengers haven't forgotten that this is a government which has cut hundreds of millions of pounds of rail investment."

Meanwhile, there are fears in the north that it could be the victim of cuts to the HS2 high-speed rail network, as the government considers whether to proceed with the full route. Forecast costs are now reported to be estimated as high as £106bn in the Oakervee review, and the second phase north of Birmingham would be easier to cut.
* Sign up to the daily Business Today email here or follow Guardian Business on Twitter at @BusinessDesk.
* This article was amended on 28 January 2020. An earlier version stated incorrectly that the project visited by Boris Johnson during the election campaign aimed to restore the line linking Blackpool to Fleetwood. The proposed line is from Poulton-le-Fylde to Fleetwood.
Topics

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Northern rail to be renationalised - and some Beeching closures could reopen

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Ministers will pledge to reopen closed rail lines in the north this week as the government prepares to renationalise the failed Northern franchise. The promise of hundreds of millions in investment to restore some lines axed in the Beeching closures in the early 1960s will come at about the same time as the expected announcement of the termination of the Northern franchise, operated by Arriva.

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38 killed on smart motorways in last five years

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Thirty-eight people have been killed on smart motorways in the last five years, the government has told BBC Panorama.

It is the first time that the total number of deaths has been reported.

Smart motorways have been criticised because they do not have a hard shoulder and drivers who break down can be trapped in the speeding traffic.

The network is facing an overhaul with the results of a government review due to be announced shortly.

A Freedom of Information (FoI) request sent by Panorama to Highways England revealed that on one section of the M25, outside London, the number of near misses had risen 20-fold since the hard shoulder was removed in April 2014.

In the five years before the road was converted into a smart motorway there were just 72 near misses. In the five years after, there were 1,485.

A "near miss" is counted every time there is an incident with "the potential to cause injury or ill health".

The FoI request also revealed that one warning sign on the same stretch of the M25 had been out of action for 336 days.

The idea behind smart motorways was to improve the flow of traffic through the most congested parts of the network by using the hard shoulder as an extra lane.

The figure of 38 deaths over five years on the smart motorway network is significant because it only makes up a small proportion of the total miles of road.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps told BBC Panorama he wants to fix smart motorways because they are too confusing for drivers.

He said: "We absolutely have to have these as safe or safer than regular motorways or we shouldn't have them at all."

A government review, the results of which are due to be announced shortly, is expected to recommend reforms to improve safety.

Panorama understands that radar will be fitted across the whole smart motorway network over the next three years.

The car detection system - which is currently only fitted on two sections of the M25 - can spot stranded vehicles as soon as drivers break down.

Nationally, motorists currently have to wait an average of 17 minutes to be spotted, and a further 17 minutes before they are rescued.

The government is also planning to scrap so-called dynamic hard shoulders, which are sometimes used as a hard shoulder and sometimes used as a live lane for traffic.

The BBC understands there will also be more emergency lay-bys.

It is unlikely to satisfy road safety campaigners.

The former government minister who approved the roll-out of smart motorways told Panorama he was misled about the risks of taking away the hard shoulder.

Sir Mike Penning agreed to the expansion in 2010 after a successful pilot on the M42 near Birmingham.

The pilot worked well because there were safe stopping points for motorists, called emergency safety refuges, on average every 600 metres.

But when the scheme was expanded across the country, the safety refuges were placed further apart. On some sections, they are 2.5 miles apart.

"They are endangering people's lives," said the Conservative MP. "There are people that are being killed and seriously injured on these roads, and it should never have happened."

An all-party group of MPs, led by Sir Mike, will publish a report on Monday that accuses Highways England of "a shocking degree of carelessness".

The MPs say there should be no further roll-out of smart motorways until further research is conducted into their safety.

Highways England said the plans to expand smart motorways were approved by ministers and that it was working to gather the facts about safety.

A spokesperson said: "Any death on our roads is one too many, and our deepest sympathies remain with the family and friends of those who lost their lives."

Eight-year-old Dev Naran was killed on a smart motorway when he was on his way home from visiting his critically ill brother in Birmingham Children's Hospital.

His grandfather stopped the car on the inside lane of the M6 and the vehicle was hit by a lorry 45 seconds later.

Mum Meera Naran told the programme that after the accident Dev's body was then taken back to the hospital where his brother was being treated.

"I had both my boys, one fighting for his life still and Dev just there. It wasn't right, my two sons, one really sick, and the healthy one left me."

AA president Edmund King said that taking away the hard shoulder had made breakdowns on the motorway more dangerous.

"It's just the most awful situation when you've broken down and your kids are in the back of the car, and there's nothing you can do to protect your kids.

"I certainly believe smart motorways are a scandal because, as we've been saying from the outset, they are dangerous, they're not fit for purpose."
Panorama, Britain's Killer Motorways? is on BBC One at 20:30 GMT on Monday 27 January, or watch later on iPlayer

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38 killed on smart motorways in last five years

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Thirty-eight people have been killed on smart motorways in the last five years, the government has told BBC Panorama. It is the first time that the total number of deaths has been reported. Smart motorways have been criticised because they do not have a hard shoulder and drivers who break down can be trapped in the speeding traffic.

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HS2: Cabinet minister has 'gut feeling' rail project will be cleared

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A cabinet minister has told the BBC it is his gut feeling that the HS2 high-speed rail line will get the go-ahead.

Stephen Barclay told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show that the project was vital for "levelling up" the UK's transport network and improving capacity.

The Brexit secretary's comments come amid a row over the rising cost of the project, which could reach £106bn.

The first phase of the project is due to link London and Birmingham, followed by extensions to Leeds and Manchester.

Mr Barclay was asked by Andrew Marr for his "gut feeling" about whether the HS2 would be approved. "Yes", he replied firmly.

He said the government had given a "clear commitment to level up all parts of the United Kingdom... HS2 plays an important part in that".

That levelling up was not just about improving the speed of transport, but also improving capacity in the UK.

Mr Barclay stressed, though, that it was "important that we also get value for money".

Earlier this month, a leaked government-commissioned review suggested the total cost of HS2 could reach £106bn.

The findings of the independent review, conducted by former HS2 Ltd chair Doug Oakervee, have not yet been officially published. The Department for Transport has indicated it will be published soon.

Lord Berkeley, a vocal critic of HS2 who was deputy chairman of the Oakervee review before withdrawing his backing, published an independent assessment of the project.

He put the cost at at least £108bn, adding that the government should scrap the project to concentrate on improving the rail network in the north of England.

That drew criticism from northern political leaders and businesses, who said HS2 should be built in its entirety.

Whitehall's spending watchdog said last week that HS2 is over budget and behind schedule because its complexity and risks were under-estimated.

The National Audit Office (NAO) warned that it is impossible to "estimate with certainty what the final cost could be".

HS2 was allocated £56bn in 2015. Phase One between London and Birmingham was due to open in 2026, but full services are now forecast to start between 2031 and 2036.

Construction firms have warned that scrapping HS2 would cause major damage to the industry, while several environmental groups say going ahead with the project will have a huge impact on natural habitats and ancient woodland.

The Sunday Telegraph reported that former senior figures involved in HS2 have given signed statements to the prime minister's advisers, alleging the government-owned firm behind HS2 covered up spiralling costs on multiple occasions.

In a statement, HS2 responded: "Following the collapse of Carillion, HS2 Ltd recognised the need to engage a healthy industry while continuing to protect value for money for the taxpayer.

"Instead of artificially passing risk back and forth, as has happened on other publicly-funded projects, contractors who do not meet the required performance will lose a proportion of their fee.

"This incentivises good performance and also prevents windfall profits from public money."

The statement said that by revising the terms and conditions, "contractors have been able to reduce their prices and HS2 Ltd estimates £1bn of savings as a result".

By Peter Saull, BBC political reporter:

HS2 is the talk of Westminster at the moment. Will it get the go ahead or come off the rails? Or somewhere in between? Perhaps unsurprisingly, the government is at pains to avoid saying what might happen next.

Ministers don't want to pre-empt the findings of the Oakervee review, which despite a series of leaks, is yet to be officially published.

Steve Barclay has gone further than any of his Cabinet colleagues by revealing he has a hunch that the project will get the green light. But it's unclear how much insight he has.

While the Brexit secretary has a seat at the Cabinet table for now, he might not be there for too much longer. The Department for Exiting the EU will be wound up following the UK's departure this week.

Ultimately the decision on HS2 lies with Boris Johnson, in consultation with his chancellor and transport secretary.

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'Gut feeling' HS2 will be approved, says minister

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A cabinet minister has told the BBC it is his gut feeling that the HS2 high-speed rail line will get the go-ahead. Stephen Barclay told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show that the project was vital for "levelling up" the UK's transport network and improving capacity.

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Revealed: the £12bn bill for scrapping high-speed rail link

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Scrapping the HS2 rail project will cost at least £12 billion in write-offs and compensation and plunge major construction companies into financial peril, ministers are being warned.

Sources close to the beleaguered scheme told the Observer that extra costs of £3bn-£4bn would be incurred even if it were scrapped immediately. £9bn has been spent already. With the issue causing tension inside the Conservative party, Whitehall insiders said that Boris Johnson could decide on the fate of the project as soon as this week as concerns grow that costs are spiralling out of control. Billions have already been spent on the first leg of the line linking Birmingham and London.

In an attempt to rescue the scheme, Andy Street, the Tory mayor of the West Midlands, said "very senior and influential business people have been in contact with the PM" before an imminent decision. He said it was "Narnia-land" to believe the project could be scrapped without huge costs.

"Businesses have invested billions of pounds in the commitment of the British government from 2015," Street said. "If you suddenly welch on that, where does it leave us as an international power where our word is our bond? I think that could be incredibly damaging. There would be a huge write-off. We are already committed to things that wouldn't go ahead. There is also the question of how those who invested in good faith would respond to that." He added: "We went into paralysis while we sorted out how we were going to sort out Brexit. We are just coming through that, making our great statements about Global Britain open to the world, and what's the next thing we do? We lose our nerve on probably the best demonstration of our self-confidence."

The intervention comes after a torrid week for high-speed rail project. A government review, leaked in draft form, found the costs of the high-speed rail link could reach £106bn. The National Audit Office also warned of further cost rises, admitting that it was "impossible to estimate with certainty" the eventual bill.

It is understood that HS2 Ltd, the state-funded body responsible for delivering the line, has spent about £9bn on the project. However, sources said that, in the event of cancellation, billions more would have to be spent on ceasing "enabling works" such as site clearance, ecology surveys and ground improvements, as well as contract terminations and safely dismantling construction sites.

Internal assessments of the risks of scrapping the project have warned of the impact on "potentially vulnerable primes" in the construction sector - a reference to the economic blow that cancelling HS2 would have on major companies. Kier, Balfour Beatty and Costain are among those involved. Large contractors have already written to the prime minister, warning of the damage done by cancellation.

Noble Francis, economics director at the Construction Products Association, said: "The average pre-tax margin of the top-10 UK contractors was -0.1% in 2018-19 and average margins have been negative for the last three years. As we have seen from large contractors such as Carillion, Kier and Amey in recent years, it only takes one or two big contracts to cause them financial problems."

Sources close to HS2 Ltd warned that compensation schemes and purchases in progress would have to continue even if the project were cancelled - while it could take more than a decade to recoup just a fraction of the money spent on land and property. Insiders said this would also result in an avalanche of legal action.

Officials are examining the ripple effect on other companies should the project be cancelled. The direct supply chain currently consists of about 2,000 companies, 70% of which are small or medium-sized businesses, while 98% are based in the UK. At peak construction, 30,000 jobs will be supported by the project, including 2,000 apprentices. Meanwhile, significant funds have been spent by local authorities on development corporations related to HS2, such as the Urban Growth Company in the West Midlands.

The London to Birmingham link was due to open in 2026, but could be delayed until 2031. The second phase, to Leeds and Manchester, was to open in 2032-33. However, those sections may not be completed until 2040.

A spokesperson for HS2 Ltd said: "Phase one of HS2 is the only shovel-ready major transport project in the UK. It has taken 10 years of expert design and development, parliamentary scrutiny and public consultation to get to this point. No other major projects are within at least five years of being where HS2 is today, and upgrades to the existing network cannot deliver the same benefits.

"The UK construction sector, the companies working on the project and those relocating to cities along the route, and the civic leaders in the Midlands and north eager to benefit from the investment HS2 will bring to their regions are all united in support for HS2 being built as soon as possible."
Topics

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Revealed: the £12bn bill for scrapping high-speed rail link

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Scrapping the HS2 rail project will cost at least £12 billion in write-offs and compensation and plunge major construction companies into financial peril, ministers are being warned. Sources close to the beleaguered scheme told the Observer that extra costs of £3bn-£4bn would be incurred even if it were scrapped immediately.

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PETER HITCHENS: Even I can see that HS2 is madness 

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As a small boy, I actually cried when they tore up the railways. It was fury as much as it was sorrow. I could see it was wrong and stupid, but nobody else could.

Railways were not just beautiful and perfectly suited to our intimate, gentle landscape.

They were plainly far safer and more efficient than horrible cars and grinding, stinking lorries, with their endless scraping, scouring traffic noise that we have had to endure ever since, everywhere and all the time.

Almost everyone told me it was inevitable progress, that I was a silly nostalgist in love with the past.

And this was when I was aged 12.

The closure of two lines in particular broke my heart. The first was the express route which ran from Exeter to Plymouth around the top of Dartmoor.

It was, as such things often are, a magnificent feat of engineering, in the midst of a rugged and lonely landscape.

Everyone now knows its closure was a mistake. Every time the sea washes away the other westbound route at Dawlish (which seems to be quite often), it is obvious that it was crazy to destroy this alternative.

And in the peak months of summer, the surviving line cannot cope with the demand and so, of course, the roads to the West are jammed.

The same is true of the other line I missed the most, the 'Hayling Billy', which rattled and wheezed past the bottom of our Hampshire suburban garden every 20 minutes.

Because its picturesque tank engines were actually Victorian, it worked unfailingly. You could set your watch by it.

Nowadays, anyone wanting to reach the beaches of Hayling Island in summer has to sit in a traffic queue for the inadequate road bridge. Try it.

As you drum your fingers impatiently on the steering wheel, you can admire the surprisingly solid remnants of the dismantled railway bridge alongside.

Similar remnants are to be found all round my home town, and probably yours as well.

Fair-sized market towns, now much bigger than they were in the 1960s, were cut off from train services by some modern-minded idiot in Whitehall in thick-rimmed glasses and a stripy suit.

The result? More traffic, more accidents, more filthy air, more noise, more imported cars and oil.

And more blighting of the landscape by ugly new roads. So I should surely be cheering on any plans to build new railway lines, such as HS2. Well, I am not. HS2 is a stupid waste of space and money.

Our country is too small to benefit from the high-speed lines that work well only in the huge empty spaces of France and Spain.

The gains are not worth the ever-increasing cost. What is more, we are no good at this sort of thing.

My journey to work has been bedevilled for years by endless costly renewal projects. Paddington Station has been besieged by construction works for nearly ten years, thanks to work on the Crossrail tunnel, which never seems to be finished and has risen in cost by 25 per cent since it began.

I am also now supposed to be benefiting from the separate Great Western electrification, which has never been finished because the costs tripled and work overran so much that important chunks of it were pathetically abandoned.

Flashy-looking new trains were delivered with what must be among the most uncomfortable seats ever inflicted on passengers - a decision for which nobody, anywhere, takes responsibility.

The fares are high enough to make Bill Gates wince. And the trains are still reliable for one thing only - they are almost always late.

By contrast, Isambard Kingdom Brunel built the whole Great Western line from London to Bristol, to superb standards, in just five years from 1836 to 1841.

I think the trouble is that, when we privatised the railways, we scattered to the winds more than a century of accumulated wisdom and experience, which we are now painfully trying to recreate.

If we have billions to spend on railways, and I hope we really do, can it be spent first of all on putting back what was so stupidly destroyed in the 1960s?

It'll take us much longer to restore than it took the Victorians to build it, but we might relearn the skills we have lost.

What do we mean by 'conservative'?

A lot of people would say that Rupert Murdoch's media organisation and especially his TV station, Fox News, fitted the description.

But not me.

I never forget that Mr Murdoch, a very clever man, is a republican with little time for monarchy, and kept a bust of Lenin in his rooms when he studied at Oxford. He's mainly about money and power.

So is Fox TV, which (I suspect without meaning to) helped create the monster which is Donald Trump.

Was it conservative for Fox's grotesque, lecherous boss Roger Ailes to deliberately display attractive women's bodies to bring in viewers? I don't think so.

Conservatism supports modesty and courtesy, not the crude exploitation of flesh. But it certainly worked.

Nor was it conservative for Ailes to do as he is shown doing in the fascinating film Bombshell, using his casting power to molest and harass his married anchorwomen, including Gretchen Carlson.

Caught out, Ailes foolishly hoped his boss would rescue him.

But the canny Murdoch, played by an actor lost in the midst of a hundredweight of wrinkled latex, explained that the world had changed.

From now on, Fox was going to be as #MeToo as everyone else.

Nobody, especially the mighty Mr Murdoch, wanted even to hear Ailes's case, even though he was all-powerful a few weeks before.

This is real ruthlessness, smooth and successful. Lenin would have been proud of him.

The chemical atrocity - that never was

Compare and contrast.

Here is Mr Eliot Higgins.

He dropped out of a media studies course, is a keen video gamer and once worked in the ladies' underwear industry.

He runs a website called Bellingcat, which (what luck!) is partly financed by the United States government through its 'National Endowment for Democracy'.

His pronouncements on the war in Syria and many other things are treated respectfully by many media. He was recently accorded a pretty generous personal interview by the BBC World Service.

Now here is Mr Ian Henderson.

He is a chemical engineer and a military veteran, who served in the artillery of his country's army, with considerable practical experience in ballistics.

He worked first for the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) from 1997 to 2005, having risen to the post of inspection team leader.

Then he left the OPCW (which prefers its staff to work on brief contracts rather than for life) and went to work in the chemical industry. Very unusually, because of a shortage of expertise, he was rehired by the OPCW in June 2016.

He was there until May 2019 when he was suspended from duty following the leaking (not by him) of some of his work on the alleged poison gas attack in Douma, Syria.

He did some tough jobs.

He was the OPCW team leader who developed and launched the highly intrusive inspections of the Barzah scientific centre, just outside Damascus.

He has been, personally, to the scene of the alleged poison gas attack in Douma, which was used as a pretext for a joint French, British and American missile strike on Syria in April 2018.

Last week he gave brief but devastating evidence to a special meeting of the United Nations Security Council, in which he said that the findings in the final OPCW report on Douma 'were contradictory, were a complete turnaround' from what the on-the-spot investigators had understood during and after their inspection.

He added: 'By the time of the release of the interim report in July 2018, our understanding was that we had serious misgivings that a chemical attack had occurred.'

Media, who are quick to take seriously Mr Higgins and his Bellingcat organisation on this subject, have totally ignored this astonishing testimony. I think they have the whole thing upside down.

Listen to Ian Henderson. He knows what he is talking about.

If you want to comment on Peter Hitchens

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PETER HITCHENS: Even I can see that HS2 is madness

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As a small boy, I actually cried when they tore up the railways. It was fury as much as it was sorrow. I could see it was wrong and stupid, but nobody else could. Railways were not just beautiful and perfectly suited to our intimate, gentle landscape.

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Officials warn they have no idea of total cost of HS2

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HS2 high-speed rail project could be delayed by a DECADE... and officials have no clue how much it will end up costing taxpayers, new report reveals

The economy will lose 20p on every £1 spent on HS2 on the project's first phase

The National Audit Office warned HS2 will not deliver good value for money

The first section of the line will run between London and Birmingham

The northern section of the line will see £1.40 returned for every £1 invested

Ministers have no idea how much HS2 will end up costing, a damning report reveals today.

The high-speed rail project is running wildly over budget and will not deliver good value for money, according to a probe by the National Audit Office.

The Government spending watchdog says the benefit to the immediate economy will be as low as 80p for every £1 spent on 'phase one' from London to Birmingham. This rises to a meagre £1.40 for every £1 invested in the full line connecting the capital to the North.

Construction work on the project must begin by the end of March if the first phase of HS2 is to open between 2029 and 2033 as planned, the report warns.

Even so, full passenger services from Euston to the Midlands might not begin until 2036, ten years later than scheduled -and the full line could take 20 years to finish. So far £7.4billion has been spent without a single piece of track being laid. The Prime Minister and senior ministers will decide within weeks whether to go ahead with the troubled project, scale it back or scrap it entirely. The NAO's findings will fuel calls for a major rethink of the scheme, the official cost of which could hit £106billion - triple the original £32billion estimate.

Investigators also found that the number of HS2 staff has doubled since 2016 to 1,250.

In all, HS2's official cost estimate of £88billion, set by the Department for Transport (DfT) in September last year, is 58 per cent more than the available funding of £55.7billion.

The report says HS2's early £7billion contingency fund was not enough to cover 'significant increases in cost' which emerged as issues came to light.

It is impossible to say how much HS2 will cost overall as the second phase of the line, from Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds, is at a very early stage, the NAO added. The 'ambitious' programme will take decades, the watchdog concluded.

'In not fully and openly recognising the programme's risks from the outset, the Department and HS2 Ltd have not adequately managed the risks to value for money', it said.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has commissioned extra data on potential alternatives to HS2 before making a final decision on its future next month.

Last night Andy McDonald, Labour transport spokesman, accused the Tories of 'woeful' political leadership over HS2. A DfT spokesman said: 'We recognise that there have been significant underestimations of both the cost and schedule of HS2 in the past which is why we commissioned the Oakervee review to provide advice on whether and how to proceed with HS2.'

WHAT ARE THE PROPOSALS FOR A 1,000-MILE UK HIGH-SPEED RAIL NETWORK?

A report by Surrey-based think tank Greengauge 21, titled Beyond HS2, said boosting national productivity should be the guiding priority for re-designing the rail network.

The proposals lead to a re-orientation of Britain's railway - from a single hub around London to a national railway network.

Key proposals include:

1. An upgraded fast route from Birmingham to Bristol Parkway carrying HS2 trains, continuing to the South West and South Wales.

2. A major upgrade to the East Coast mainline for the first time since the 1980s.

3. New high speed lines in Scotland, achieving a three-hour 15-minute journey time between Edinburgh and London.

4. New lines in East Essex and Anglia, alleviating the West Anglia and Great Eastern Mainlines, both of which are at capacity.

5. Bringing Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Bradford, Sheffield, Newcastle and Hull together with new connections to form 'an effective and powerful economic unit'.

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Officials warn they have no idea of total cost of HS2

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The economy will lose 20p on every £1 spent on HS2 on the project's first phase The National Audit Office warned HS2 will not deliver good value for money The first section of the line will run between London and Birmingham The northern section of the line will see £1.40 returned for every £1 invested Ministers have no idea how much HS2 will end up costing, a damning report reveals today.

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TAGAYTAY, Philippines - A small volcano south of the Philippine capital that draws many tourists for its picturesque setting in a lake erupted with a massive plume of ash and steam Sunday, prompting thousands of people to flee and officials to shut Manila's international airport.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said Taal Volcano in Batangas province south of Manila blasted steam, ash and pebbles up to 6 to 9 miles into the sky in a dramatic escalation of its growing restiveness, which began last year.

The volcanology institute raised the danger level around Taal three notches on Sunday to level 4, indicating "a hazardous eruption may happen within hours or days," said Renato Solidum, who heads the volcanology institute. Level 5, the highest, means a hazardous eruption is underway and could affect a larger area.

There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage, but authorities scrambled to evacuate more than 6,000 villagers from an island in the middle of a lake, where the volcano lies, and tens of thousands more from nearby coastal towns, officials said.

"We have asked people in high-risk areas, including the volcano island, to evacuate now ahead of a possible hazardous eruption," Solidum said.

Renelyn Bautista, a 38-year-old housewife who was among thousands of residents who fled from Batangas province's Laurel town, said she hitched a ride to safety from her home with her two children, including a 4-month-old baby, after Taal erupted and the ground shook mildly.

"We hurriedly evacuated when the air turned muddy because of the ashfall and it started to smell like gunpowder," Bautista said by phone.

All departing and arriving international and domestic flights were suspended Sunday night at Manila's international airport "due to volcanic ash in the vicinity of the airport" and nearby air routes, the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines said.

Taal lies around 37 miles south of Manila.

Norwegian Tonny Roger, who had flown to the Philippines to visit his wife, said he wasn't happy that his flight back to Norway was canceled, but he thought of the bright side. "Well, I can see her more. I will go back to her now," he told The Associated Press at the airport.

Authorities said they were considering diverting flights to unaffected airports outside Manila.

The volcanology institute reminded the public that the small island where the volcano lies is a "permanent danger zone," although fishing villages have existed there for years. It asked nearby coastal communities "to take precautionary measures and be vigilant of possible lake water disturbances related to the ongoing unrest."

Heavy to light ashfall was reported in towns and cities several miles from the volcano, and officials advised residents to stay indoors and don masks and goggles for safety. Motorists were hampered by poor visibility, which was worsened by rainy weather.

Hotels, shopping malls and restaurants line an upland road along a ridge overlooking the lake and the volcano in Tagaytay city, a key tourism area that could be affected by a major eruption.

Authorities recorded a swarm of earthquakes, some of them felt with rumbling sounds, and a slight inflation of portions of the 1,020-foot volcano ahead of Sunday's steam-driven explosion, officials said.

Classes in a wide swath of towns and cities were suspended Monday, including in Manila, to avoid health risks posed by the ashfall.

One of the world's smallest volcanoes, Taal is among two dozen active volcanoes in the Philippines, which lies along the so-called Pacific "Ring of Fire," a seismically active region that is prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

About 20 typhoons and other major storms each year also lash the Philippines, which lies between the Pacific and the South China Sea, making it one of the world's most disaster-prone countries.

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Thousands flee as volcano erupts in the Philippines, Manilla airport closed

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TAGAYTAY, Philippines - A small volcano south of the Philippine capital that draws many tourists for its picturesque setting in a lake erupted with a massive plume of ash and steam Sunday, prompting thousands of people to flee and officials to shut Manila's international airport.

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Reuters 4 days ago By Robenson Sanon

By Robenson Sanon

PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) - Ten years and billions of dollars of aid later, Haiti is still rebuilding itself from one of the deadliest earthquakes in history and the devastation it caused.

Recovery has been slow and uneven.

The 7.0 magnitude quake on Jan. 12, 2010 killed tens of thousands of people and left many more homeless, levelling many of the most recognizable buildings in Port-au-Prince.

"Haiti has neither a mother nor a father," Haitian Jean Brune Wilga said near the remains of the National Palace, the president's former residence. "Because 10 years after the earthquake, the palace should not still be in ruins."

It and other iconic buildings, including the Notre Dame l'Assomption cathedral, have not been rebuilt. Tens of thousands of people still live in provisional housing.

Estimates of the number of dead vary widely, from below 100,000 to as high as 316,000, the official government figure.

Worshippers attend what Father Guy Chrispin described as a "temporary cathedral", a steel-framed edifice that seats 1,500 people in open air built by the ruins of the original church.

"We say temporary because we're planning to rebuild the other one, but that requires a lot of money," Chrispin said. After the quake, more than 12,000 aid groups launched one of the largest ever humanitarian and reconstruction operations.

Since then, their efforts have come under intense criticism. U.N. peacekeepers also accidentally started a cholera epidemic that killed 9,300 people and sickened another 800,000. Other aid workers stand accused of abusing women and children.

In a country where nearly 60% of the population survives on less than $2.40 a day, reconstruction of the Hospital of the State University of Haiti, the capital's main public hospital, is one of the more advanced projects.

Building materials lay stacked outside the building next to the stretched but still functioning General Hospital.

Jean Rodney, whose son was being treated in the facility, said he appreciated efforts by medical staff working with such limited resources. Like most Haitians, he had high hopes for the new medical centre.

"We all need it - it's been too long for us," Rodney said. "It should have been finished a long time ago. But we know that this is because of the country's political problems."

Haitian President Jovenel Moise has called on international support to tackle an ongoing humanitarian crisis. More than one-in-three Haitians, nearly 3.7 million people, need urgent assistance to meet their daily food requirements.

(Reporting by Robenson Sanon; Writing by Stefanie Eschenbacher; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

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Slow and uneven, Haiti rebuilds 10 years after devastating quake

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Reuters 4 days ago By Robenson Sanon By Robenson Sanon PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) - Ten years and billions of dollars of aid later, Haiti is still rebuilding itself from one of the deadliest earthquakes in history and the devastation it caused. Recovery has been slow and uneven. The 7.0 magnitude quake on Jan.

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England's beavers have had a big impact since they've been back

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Beavers were hunted to extinction in England centuries ago but have returned in a river in the southwest where researchers are trying to understand if they have a positive or negative effect on the environment.

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'There’s a lot of weirdness in a slum': making a living in Kenya's anarchic mud city

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Living in a slum is the reality for 1 billion people and rising across the world. More than half of Africa's city dwellers live in "informal settlements" and the continent's biggest is Kibera, in Kenya. We heard from people there about their struggles, aspirations and their innovation, busting the myths and stereotypes about being poor and powerless.

Mammito Eunice, 25, is a stand-up comic.

"I can make a living as long as I can make people laugh.

"This place has a lot of material. There's a lot of weirdness in a slum, there's a special weirdness in Kibera. And you cannot be sad all day.

"My comedy comes from pain, having lived and grown up in Kibera. This is the life I know, I can't compare it to anything else. To me, having a "teatime" is funny, why would you have meals between meals that are already a struggle to find? If anything bad happens to me I have to laugh at it. First I cry, then I laugh. There's a sad and a funny side to everything.

"In my show there are a lot of NGO jokes. I make jokes about the small kids in the 20-year-old (donated) T-shirts that are too big, jokes about how many verses of song the children will sing for the money the white lady has donated to the school. There's a lot of laughter to be had at the uniqueness of this place. I talk about issues, corruption, leadership, just through the prism of comedy.

"I come from a single-mother family and my mum is very chilled about what I do. Maybe if my dad was around he would be very harsh about my job.

Men are a difficult area for me. It's challenging because men [in Kibera] still have the thing: 'I am a man and no woman can tell me anything', which is frustrating for a career woman. They want to change you, distract you.

"In Kibera there is a great network of creative people, musicians, dancers, actors, even people making beadwork. We only have very small spaces and that is something I think that needs to, and will, change."

The hotel owner

Tom Aduda, 48, is the proprietor of Dreams, a hotel and one of very few buildings in Kibera above a single storey.

The hotel has grown over the years - wood, metal, panels, stairs and floors have been tacked and welded together with an ingenuity perfected in a place where conventional building materials are beyond reach. Aduda employs eight people and works 20-hour days. He moved to Kibera as a schoolboy when his dad left home, leaving his mother to bring up eight children alone.

"Things were better then in Kibera, cleaner. The water was clean in the river. We played football. Now, where I played football, there are buildings, and where we used to swim, there's dirty garbage.

"It's hard for the children. Kids have to be kids. They have no place to play, no place to run. I would not start a family here.

"My mother made illicit beer, that's what paid to bring us up. I don't drink now because of what I saw growing up around alcohol. I went to college. Then I started with a tiny shop and then built up the hotel bit by bit. Now I have 10 rooms and a reputation for cleanliness. I am proud of this place.

"This is a tough job, you are your own security. But I am a tough guy. 99% of business in Kibera is about survival.

"I don't pay tax but I don't get any services from the government either. The police are just out to collect money at every opportunity.

"You have to pay off the police, whether you have a licence or not. Every week I have to give the police something, and on a monthly basis as well.

"You'd rather do your business than have disruption so you pay it. I'm from here and known here, so for me the gangs are not so much of a problem, but for women it's very bad here. Very bad.

"When Kibera was began building up there were so many rooms. Now you can't find a room anywhere that's vacant.

"My clientele come here from up country to look for jobs and find it's not the place they thought, but 99% don't go back. Life is cheap, so they get used to it and stay. In my mind I would rather be up country. I would love to retire with some chickens and goats and have a simple, good life. It would be lovely.

"I don't believe anything is changing. They [the government] talk about upgrading, but they have been saying that for years and then they spend the money somewhere else.

"Nothing changes in Kibera."

The shopkeeper

Evaline Atieno, 36, has been running her chip shop for six years, expanding from a stall to a back room with two long tables and benches for sit-in customers. A bucket of cold water holds bottles of neon-coloured drinks. She employs four people and sends her three children to school.

"It is called Eva's Place," she says. "Our special thing is that this place is very clean."

You have to maintain the price, you have to maintain the cleanliness

Between her and her friend Caroline Ayuma, they peel their way through six buckets of potatoes each day by hand.

"We are different tribes, Luo and Luhya, but here we work for the same thing. We have to be a special place, better than the others.

"The problem is that we now have a lot of competition here in Kibera. So many new people are arriving all the time and setting up new places. It is becoming harder and harder to earn a living. It takes a lot of time and a lot of energy to keep a business going in this place."

"You have to maintain the price, you have to maintain the cleanliness. That is what makes my place the best."

The IT businesswoman

Margaret Aoko, 23, was born and lives in Kibera. "It is a very difficult place to live. There's a lot of harassment for women. It's embarrassing and it's difficult and you just can't do anything about it. You have to accept it."

Aoko, the fifth of seven children of a mechanic and a seamstress, founded a company called Papshop - linking entrepreneurs to wider markets, connecting them to consumers, and building their brand awareness and sales on and offline.

"I was passionate about local artisans and I was blogging their stories so people could see the amazing things they were doing. So this was the natural next step."

After school she won a place to study IT with local charity Shofco, and then a scholarship to study entrepreneurship in Ghana. She left the slum to study, but suffered from depression and anxiety in an unfamiliar culture. "I was so low in weight, I was constantly sick, I cried all the time. It just got really messy. I was drawn to come back.

"My family didn't understand what I was doing. When I started my business no one believed in me. They said you should get a job, you won't survive. But this is something I love. I feel I need to grow. More connections need to be made between people.

"There are so many problems that I want to solve in Kibera, I wouldn't just leave here. I can't leave here."

The musician

Henry "Octopizzo" Ohang a, 31, is a successful Kenyan rap artist, born in Kibera: "My dad met my mum here when she was running a groundnut stall. My dad bought a lot of groundnuts before she would be persuaded to marry him.

"I wanted to be a horticulturist - I thought it must be wonderful to see flowers. Growing up, I counted that I saw maybe five flowers in 21 years in Kibera. Can you imagine a flower at every door here? The peace that might bring?

"My parents died when I was 14. The three youngest children went back to our village but my mum was in a microfinance scheme so I was able to finish school. Afterwards, I just wanted to find a job but it's hard in Kibera, you have to know people such as a family member. I applied for college but I could not afford the fees.

"I soon realised nobody was telling our story. The only thing people know about Kibera is poverty and disaster, but it's more than that.

"Young people need spaces to create and be ourselves. Kids want to be poets, dancers, footballers. But they cannot express themselves. When we grew up we thought mental health was a rich person's disease. We don't even talk to our parents. The only time my dad said 'I love you', he died the next day. I never heard my mum say it. But she fed us so she must have. There were no hugs.

"You were not allowed to cry or complain. You were dubbed weak. Because you can't survive if you cry. So you hold a lot of stuff in and that's a lot of trauma.

"I Googled 'how to be a dad' when my daughter was born.

"Here people don't consider you a success with art until you are really successful. My aunt didn't talk to me for three years because she thought rap was a shameful thing. The problem with this generation of ours is that people are so afraid of failing that they don't even try: 99% are so convinced they will never make it out of here that they never try.

"People assume if you come from here you are a thug. If you can't speak English they think you are stupid. But that is not us. The young people here are creative, there is a slang called Sheng, a mix of Swahili, English and our mother tongues. It changes every day, it's a vibrant, amazing thing, and that is who the people here are.

"I love this place to death. There is nowhere in the world like Kibera."

The teacher

Cecilia Ayoti, 38, was 15 when she was forced to leave home afterfalling pregnant. "I was a bright daughter and my father was very bitter, he was a drunkard and he would get mad every time he looked at me. I thought leaving home would be better for everyone else in the family.

"But my baby's father believed in witchcraft and sorcery and was very violent. He would try to force me to have sex in front of the children. You are programmed from an early age that you have to make your marriage work. And society already saw me as a bad girl because I got pregnant at an early age. This society, your family, your brothers and fathers, can be very harsh.

"The more you suffer rejection the more you start to die inside.

"I read some magazine articles and I joined some workshops and I got the courage to leave [my husband]."

There is a great challenge in working with the poorest of the poor as they will not ask for anything

Cecilia Ayoti

For a single mother "there are challenges" to make ends meet in Kibera, Ayoti says simply. She nearly starved. There are also, she insists, "real positive energies around". She started sharing childcare with two other single mothers, then expanded to a daycare centre. She now has a school for 350 students, half of whom were street orphans.

"My kids are all fabulous, everyone is unique. In other schools they will expel you for disruption, but we really try to help correct them with love because we know most of them have gone through so much. We lose some girls. From nine upwards they go to live as women - they are so used to that kind of life that they are not children anymore."

Ayoti has nine children, four of whom are adopted, and in 2013 she sat her high school certificate alongside the son she had aged 15. In 2017 she was elected to the county assembly to represent her ward in Kibera and has already won funding for a new vocational training centre to be built. "Our financial struggles need big solutions," she says.

"The great challenge in working with the poorest of the poor is that they will not ask for anything."

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'There's a lot of weirdness in a slum': making a living in Kenya's anarchic mud city

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Living in a slum is the reality for 1 billion people and rising across the world. More than half of Africa's city dwellers live in "informal settlements" and the continent's biggest is Kibera, in Kenya. We heard from people there about their struggles, aspirations and their innovation, busting the myths and stereotypes about being poor and powerless.

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Samson Otieno: 'Without art I don’t think I would be where I am today'

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Samson Odhiambo Otieno's early life was never going to be easy. Born into a life of poverty in Kibera, Nairobi, at a young age he endured the death of his mother and siblings, and rejection by his new step-mother. Forced out of the only home he knew he became one of Kenya's street children, living on the road, making his way through life the best he could.

Otieno, now 29, attended the launch of the Guardian's Kibera: living in the slum exhibition to catch up with the life he once knew and memories he treasures dearly, through the images of his hometown - a far cry from where he is now.

Otieno wanted to contribute to the series by sharing his story.

"My mother was only 14 when she had me. Her waters broke when she was alone, her screams alerted our neighbour who rushed to help her. They delivered me there and then, in a small plastic bathing basin.

"My mother and father went on to have six more children, three of whom died at an early age from complications that even now I can't fully understand."

When he was 10 years old, Otieno's mother died from an unknown illness. Living in a struggling household he dropped out of school, his father remarrying a year later. Otieno hoped that his stepmother would unite the family but he was wrong.

"I could not get along with my stepmother. She thought I was too opinionated to be in the same house as her and made my father choose between me and her. I decided to leave, I was only 11 years old. I left Kibera and lived on the streets between Kisumu and Nairobi.

"Life was tough, I had no money and no one to care for me. I would hang around with boys of my own age. We would all sleep in the same areas for safety, usually around bus shelters. Sometimes there would be up to 15 of us together. We had no money for food so we ate from bins or begged passersby for money. I avoided stealing as I knew this would bring trouble with the police. I had no clothes to speak of, I would find sacks and turn them into shoes. The larger ones we would wear or sleep in to keep out the weather.

"I was a street child for four years, but I was one of the lucky ones," says Otieno, who was rescued by Kisumu Urban Apostolate Programmes, an organisation that rehabilitates and reunites street children with their families. "They helped me and other street children acquire different skills, from masonry and mechanical engineering to carpentry and fine arts amongst others. I qualified as a stonemason.

"I have seen too many life changing opportunities pass me by because I didn't have the qualifications or the right papers. If it wasn't for art I don't think I would be where I am today."

More than 60% of all African city dwellers live in slums. As the climate crisis continues to drive people away from rural areas and into cities, urbanisation has become a growing issue across the globe.

The Guardian's Global development team travelled to Africa's biggest slum, Kibera, in Nairobi, Kenya, in an effort to look beyond the stereotypes and myths of life in a slum.

Many people living in Kibera work hard, long days. They pay high rents for flimsy shacks on land owned by the government and effectively squatted on by landlords. They have no services and the only taxation comes in the form of protection money demanded by police and gangs. Each day is a struggle to scrape together enough money and food to reach the next.

Electricity, clean water, toilets, healthcare and schools are either non-existent or not available to all residents. At any one time, 50% of Kibera's 15- to 25-year-old women are pregnant. Abortion is illegal and contraception scarce. Rape and child sex abuse is endemic. Abuse of drink and drugs is rife. Food is cheap but unhealthy - fizzy drinks are easier to get than clean water.

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Otieno was taken in by his aunt and uncle in Kibera, people he describes as being "the most selfless people I know".

Following Kenya's post-election violence in 2007-08, Otieno and his friends became involved in a peace initiative and in 2010 he became a founding member of Kibera's first free community library. From a young age, when he sang in a church choir in Kibera, he had a passion for music.

"I lived in a neighbourhood brimming with talent. I hung out with older boys trying to make it in the music industry. We had small gatherings performing for the neighbourhood at the 'practice space' in Kibera. My first performance was a song written by my then girlfriend who was a poet, I was so nervous, sweaty and couldn't stop shaking. But people liked it and encouraged me to practice to build my confidence," he says.

"I believe that my music saved my life, I would have most likely joined a gang or been killed by the police for being gang affiliated. With police brutality and killings, it just feels like they [police in Kibera] are bloodthirsty. Sometimes they would just decide to kill innocent people and plant guns or drugs on them for fun. A lot of young people, especially men, have been unlucky enough to suffer this fate."

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Samson Otieno, aged 22, teaching young boys in Kibera. Photograph: Courtesy of Samson Otieno

"Being involved with the local charities and arts groups helped me stay out of trouble and to build a reputation with the community. It's important, as if you are popular in Kibera, they [the police] can't just gun you down. That could bring too much heat. But sometimes they do, because the police there operate with impunity, and are unlikely to face any serious consequences for their actions."

Otieno met his British partner Belinda at a festival in Kenya in 2014, when she was working for a human rights organisation. Two years later they were married, and they now have a five-year-old daughter, Kayla Keshi.

'The people have power': Kenya's gang leader turned community builder

Otieno continued to pursue the goals he set for himself, with disappointments and setbacks along the way. "But in 2016, my good friends Mohammad Abdullah, AKA Shamir, and Louis Oketch, AKA DJ Lorc, urged me to get back in the ring - Shamir offering vocal lessons and producing most of my music."

A Kiberan star was born, as Otieno's unique style of afro-pop took shape. "I like to experiment. I often have an element of more than one genre in my projects. My art is inspired by my environment and personal experiences. My biggest influences include Bob Marley, Shamir Tadeiya, Oliver Mtukudzi, Ray Charles and Lucky Dube," he explains.

In 2017, Otieno and his family moved to the UK. "I got here, loved it, and now we're building our lives here. This is my third year in the UK."

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Samson Otieno with his wife Belinda Goodman and daughter Kayla Keshi, aged five, shopping in London. Photograph: Courtesy of Samson Otieno

Using the stage name Tymilyfe, Otieno's success began to grow. "I released my debut single Lipstick on 14 February 2019 to a warm reception in east Africa. The audio was recorded in Kibera but the visuals shot in London. I later released my second single Wrong Information in May 2019, followed by my latest single Agenda in July, which was also well received."

Otieno is keen to help others less fortunate than himself. He has set up Tymilyfe Limited, a Kenyan-based company committed to supporting talent from less privileged backgrounds in Kenya's informal settlements. They provide vocal coaching and audio-visual production workshops taught by experts.

"My dream is to be the inspiration that Shamir was to me. I want to be the reason why someone does not give up on their dreams, why someone's art is putting food on their table. I want to be their inspiration."

Tymilyfe is an acronym for "thank you mum I love you forever".
Topics

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Samson Otieno: 'Without art I don't think I would be where I am today'

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Samson Odhiambo Otieno's early life was never going to be easy. Born into a life of poverty in Kibera, Nairobi, at a young age he endured the death of his mother and siblings, and rejection by his new step-mother.

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‘We won’t refuse anyone in need’: the paramedics taking on Nairobi’s slum

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No day is the same for Evalyne Nyangweso, entrepreneur and owner of an ambulance service dedicated to an unforgiving community prone to poor health, disease and high crime rates.

Operating in Kibera, Africa's largest slum, where traditional ambulances daren't go and even police tread carefully, Nyangweso and her crew are the first responders to medical emergencies.

More than 60% of all African city dwellers live in slums. As the climate crisis continues to drive people away from rural areas and into cities, urbanisation has become a growing issue across the globe.

The Guardian's Global development team travelled to Africa's biggest slum, Kibera, in Nairobi, Kenya, in an effort to look beyond the stereotypes and myths of life in a slum.

Many people living in Kibera work hard, long days. They pay high rents for flimsy shacks on land owned by the government and effectively squatted on by landlords. They have no services and the only taxation comes in the form of protection money demanded by police and gangs. Each day is a struggle to scrape together enough money and food to reach the next.

Electricity, clean water, toilets, healthcare and schools are either non-existent or not available to all residents. At any one time, 50% of Kibera's 15- to 25-year-old women are pregnant. Abortion is illegal and contraception scarce. Rape and child sex abuse is endemic. Abuse of drink and drugs is rife. Food is cheap but unhealthy - fizzy drinks are easier to get than clean water.

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Thank you for your feedback.

From domestic violence to gang rape, rapid response paramedics encounter extremes. Punctuality and compassion are key, and failure can result in being pelted with stones by frustrated bystanders. It's not a job for the faint-hearted - homes in Kibera are constructed of timber stakes, mud walls and corrugated steel roofs and are built on animal and human waste. Cholera and typhoid are rife. HIV/AIDS affects 11.5-14% of the adult population, and only 60% of those infected are aware they have the disease.

Despite this, Nyangweso remains dedicated and on call 24/7 to 250,000 of Kenya's poorest people. In the little spare time she has, she advertises, handing out calling cards in hospitals and churches and posting stickers around Kibera.

Rapid Response is now in its third year. Nyangweso came up with the idea after she was made redundant from Nairobi's St Mary's Mission hospital.

Nyangweso and her husband are both trained nurses, with children aged nine, 14 and 19, for whom they have high hopes. "It's a medical family. I like it and would like them to be in the same field. If not the ambulance [service], maybe doctors or surgeons," she says.

She knew the Red Cross were struggling to cope with demand in Kibera. After completing a paramedic course, she bought a fully equipped ambulance and a second compact vehicle to negotiate the narrow dirt tracks. Both were second-hand. Next she recruited staff: Timon and George, trained emergency vehicle drivers, and Winnie, a Red Cross-trained paramedic.

The next challenge was communication. With no hi-tech call centre, Nyangweso uses her own mobile, juggling business and personal calls. She hopes one day she will make enough money for a second phone, as her current one has a broken screen.

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Evalyne Nyangweso briefs her team of first responders. Photograph: Rod Austin/The Guardian

"We collected a pregnant woman from Kibera and delivered her to hospital, but her child died. She had no phone and wanted to ring her husband to ask him to take the child to the mortuary, as the hospital won't do this without payment. I lent her my phone. Carried away by emotions, she threw it, damaging the screen. She had no money to pay for it or the ambulance journey. It's difficult when people live below the poverty line. There was nothing I could do," she says.

Kenya's health service is not free and the briefest contact with a medical practitioner is met with a demand for payment. "With most clients we simply agree a figure. Within Nairobi we're supposed to charge 5,000 shillings [£38.90] for each trip. In Kibera, they cannot afford that, so I charge between 3,000 and 3,500 shillings depending on the strength of their family. We won't refuse someone in need because they don't have money.

"Some patients don't pay. They promise and don't honour it," she says. "One woman had her baby prematurely, the baby needed to be taken to intensive care. She had no money but said she would pay the next day, so we took them. Unfortunately, the baby passed away. The next day I rang the woman who asked: 'Why are you calling? Why do you want me to pay when my baby is no more?' - so she didn't pay. That is life in Kibera. If the result is not good, they do not care."

'We lose so many women': the tragedy of unsafe abortion in Kibera

The liveried vehicles sit on standby in Nairobi's Uhuru Gardens car park from 8am to 6pm, six days a week and staff are on call throughout the night. Nyangweso monitors response times; drivers must be at their vehicle within five minutes of a call and ambulances must arrive at the scene within 20 minutes, even through the dark streets of Kibera where road accidents, muggings, assaults, and shuttle runs between hospitals are commonplace.

- Estimates of how many people live in Kibera range from 250,000 to 1 million.

- Life expectancy is 30 years.

- The biggest killers come from diet and dirt. Diabetes is rife from cheap, high-sugar food.

- One in four children attends school.

- One toilet block serves approximately 50 shacks, with each shack housing roughly eight people.

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"Conditions in Kibera are not easy. It's overpopulated, with no discipline. It's every man for himself, which makes our work difficult," says Nyangweso. "Problems occur during disputes. You're there to take one party to hospital but the other side does not want you to, so they start pulling you about. We've never been attacked but I know of cases where ambulances have arrived late and the patient had deteriorated. The crowd became angry and beat the crew brutally."

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Children play by a river choked with plastic and human waste that runs alongside the houses in the centre of Kibera. Photograph: Kate Holt/The Guardian

Nyangweso's primary concern is for women. "Life is hard for women. I don't know why they have so many children, when both parents are not working. The men are idle, drinking alcohol all day, it's up to women to fetch food for the family. When they get home their men take their money to buy more drink. There will be a quarrel - he's drunk, feels inferior and unable to provide for the family. That's why there are a lot of rapes and domestic violence. It's brutal, men use sticks, pangas (machetes) and knives on women. Neighbours call us, and often we cannot stop the bleeding, we can only wrap the injury and stretcher the woman to hospital," says Nyangweso.

Kibera has a prolific rape crisis. Perpetrators target the young, the elderly and those with disabilities. "Incidents of rape are high at any time of the day. Girls aged 9-15 being raped by middle-aged men is most common," she says.

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Men drink home brewed alcohol through straws in a bar in Kibera. Photograph: Kate Holt/The Guardian

"Victims often run away, so it comes down to the parents to follow up the case. If they don't, the police take no action. If the girl comes from a poor family and the boy a well-off one, corruption gets involved and the case is ignored. Unless you find them or they are held by a parent until we arrive, it is difficult, as they run, especially teenagers," says Nyangweso.

"Yesterday we attended a call to a young girl who had had sex with man with HIV. We don't know whether it was with consent or rape as she ran away. Here after 24 hours or a bath you cannot prove it was rape. We spent the day searching for her then gave up."

If rape is suspected the paramedics have to stop at Kibera's police station to report it before going to hospital. "At the police station they check outer clothing for signs of assault or semen. Only if they agree it's rape - [then] we take the victim to hospital. If the family give consent the hospital will go through the examination process but up until recently it was not free, they had to pay. Likewise for DNA tests, but this changed recently. Sometimes having to pay is a problem, so maybe they leave it, treat the victim and go back home. Then later you hear that the father or husband of the raped woman has fought the suspect and a grudge builds between the two families."

A significant number of the guilty go unpunished. "It's bad, imagine as a parent, having a girl of 15 and a man who knows he has a disease goes with her. A girl whom you as a parent are trying to bring up to be somebody in society. Then he does something like that and goes unpunished. It hurts."

Prostitution is rife in Kibera, including among the very young, says Nyangweso. "They do it to help their mothers ... mothers send them to do it, saying: 'Bring money so I can feed your younger brothers and sisters,'" she says. Women are also trapped into having sex with other men to feed their children, says Nyangweso.

She says the government must be stronger on rape, prostitution and violence against women "because that is the beginning of the family. Without rights there is no future."

She adds that the government should create jobs for Kibera's men. "Many are idle, drinking cheap brews, causing indiscipline and shortening their lives - but I think they simply don't care. [They think:] 'I will never be a victim because I can [punch] somebody. I cannot allow it to happen, I'm capable.' These things happen to women in Kibera because they are not independent, but I can live my own life with my children and if my husband starts, I can tell him to leave. I am independent."
Topics

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'We won't refuse someone in need': the paramedics taking on Nairobi's slum | Rod Austin

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No day is the same for Evalyne Nyangweso, entrepreneur and owner of an ambulance service dedicated to an unforgiving community prone to poor health, disease and high crime rates. Operating in Kibera, Africa's largest slum, where traditional ambulances daren't go and even police tread carefully, Nyangweso and her crew are the first responders to medical emergencies.

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I spent 21 years of my life angry before I realised we in the slums must lead change

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The future is shining in Kenya. By many measures, life is better than it has ever been. A decade of steady economic growth has made Kenya a rising middle-income country. Reports on the health and education of the population show indicators are marching upwards. On the streets, a sense of hope and hustle prevails. This is progress.

However, there is a rebellion brewing. As rural to urban migration continues to push more young people into slums, only to be met with despair, an uprising looms. I say this not as an alarmist, but as an activist.

In the cities, a growing majority of Kenyans are struggling to realise the promise of urban life. The World Bank estimates that 56% of Kenya's urban population live in slums, amounting to more than 4 million people. As urbanisation pushes the economy upwards, the growing slum problem cannot be overlooked.

Too many poor families are leaving their village for the city, only to find their dream of urban life wasan illusion. This is how my life began three decades ago. I was born in rural Kenya during a long drought. It drove my family to the city, drawn by the "bright lights of opportunity". Arriving in Nairobi, uneducated and unskilled, my family struggled to survive. From the age of two, I grew up in Kibera slum, the largest in Africa.

More than 60% of all African city dwellers live in slums. As the climate crisis continues to drive people away from rural areas and into cities, urbanisation has become a growing issue across the globe.

The Guardian's Global development team travelled to Africa's biggest slum, Kibera, in Nairobi, Kenya, in an effort to look beyond the stereotypes and myths of life in a slum.

Many people living in Kibera work hard, long days. They pay high rents for flimsy shacks on land owned by the government and effectively squatted on by landlords. They have no services and the only taxation comes in the form of protection money demanded by police and gangs. Each day is a struggle to scrape together enough money and food to reach the next.

Electricity, clean water, toilets, healthcare and schools are either non-existent or not available to all residents. At any one time, 50% of Kibera's 15- to 25-year-old women are pregnant. Abortion is illegal and contraception scarce. Rape and child sex abuse is endemic. Abuse of drink and drugs is rife. Food is cheap but unhealthy - fizzy drinks are easier to get than clean water.

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Thank you for your feedback.

Life in Kibera is a harsh and grinding reality. Growing up as a disempowered young person makes it so easy to be angry. I saw many organisations parachute into my community with grand plans. I watched as each of their programmes somehow went astray. I'll always remember one aid group that came in and built a public latrine. After they left, a neighbour shacked up inside the structure and declared it his home. I'm sure they never returned to discover that their grand plan had turned out to be one man's home makeover.

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'I spent 21 years of my life enraged by the lack of access to basic services like running water'. Photograph: Kate Holt/The Guardian

I spent 21 years of my life angry, enraged by the lack of access to basic services like running water, electricity, healthcare, or any kind of opportunity. Unable to afford school fees, I had to teach myself to read by studying newspapers from the garbage. Eventually, against all odds, I found a better path.

I taught myself to read by studying newspapers from the garbage. Eventually, I found a better path

Whilst urbanisation is not a new trend, it is one that is accelerating. According to UN statistics, two-thirds of the world will live in cities by 2030. Africa is the fastest urbanising continent on the planet. If our society fails to create dignity and opportunity in growing slum communities, urbanisation will push slum dwellers to the brink.

Most young people in the slums never get an opportunity to overcome their circumstances. We must transform urban slums so that young leaders can chart a new course for their communities, and for our increasingly urban world.

My organisation, Shining hope for communities (Shofco), is leading a grassroots movement for urban slum transformation across Kenya. We work hand in hand with community leaders through a programme called Shofco Urban Network (Sun), which puts community leaders in charge of the agenda for slum development. Sun provides an organising mechanism to help slum dwellers hold charitable organisations and government officials to account. This gives power back to the people.

To tackle the challenges of slum development, it matters who sets the agenda, and who does the work. Truly grassroots or indigenous organisations are still on the fringe. But anyone who lives in a slum will tell you that our problems cannot be solved in isolation. We need to break the system that keeps people in poverty. The community knows best how to achieve this.

Sun is active in nine urban slums across Kenya's major cities: Kibera, Mathare, Kawangware and Mukuru kwa Njenga in Nairobi, Bangladesh, Maweni and Mashimoni in Mombasa, and Obunga and Nyalenda in Kisumu.

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Kennedy Odede next to the water tower built by Shofco, which runs an aerial water pipe across the slum, bringing clean water to people living nearby. Kibera, Nairobi. Photograph: Atieno Muyuyi/The Guardian

Our leaders act like community councils, promoting peace and social cohesion across ethnic/tribal lines and organising community clean-ups, education and cultural awareness through the arts. We also engage with local politicians to push for accountability around campaign promises.

Anyone can become a Sun member and gain access to basic economic resources. We have trained community members to form savings and loans groups. Last year, our 8,347 savings group members made the equivalent of $223,000 (£179,000) in peer-to-peer loans. Our network demonstrates that it is possible to restore dignity and empowerment without relying on aid. Our self-empowerment model focuses on inspiring a new wave of grassroots leaders who want to shape a better future for their communities.

It is time for funders and policymakers to recognise the legitimacy and revolutionary power of community-based leadership. Only when we empower slum communities to design their own large-scale projects and policies, will we stand a chance at solving the slum problem for good. Only then can we unlock the hope that makes all people shine.

Kennedy Odede is the co-founder of Shining hope for communities (S hofco). Odede came to Kibera as a boy and lived on the streets, running with criminal gangs. It was when he got a job in a factory and came across the writings of Martin Luther King Jr that he decided to save his earnings to buy a football, start a football team and finally build up his social entrepreneur network, which now educates and provides services to a large part of Kibera.

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I spent 21 years of my life angry before I realised we in the slums must lead change | Kennedy Odede

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The future is shining in Kenya. By many measures, life is better than it has ever been. A decade of steady economic growth has made Kenya a rising middle-income country. Reports on the health and education of the population show indicators are marching upwards. On the streets, a sense of hope and hustle prevails.

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'I fear for the children': the families battling to beat the odds in Kibera – photo essay

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Rosemary Achia, 53, has two daughters. One has a job washing clothes in Nairobi and the other works in a hotel, so all seven grandchildren live with her.

"I am a little old for this," she says. "I have been 11 years a widow. He was a good man but God gives and God takes away."

Now she takes in washing, knits pullovers, and sells tomatoes.

"When you are alone, you have to do everything. You cannot choose."

As she talks, twitching at the yarn dollies on the armchair that she crochets at a church women's craft group, Velma, 12, Mary, 11, and 10-year-old Owen are poking through the plastic sheeting on the roof, looking for the small dead body of a rat we can all smell but not find.

Along with Millicent, 26, Ashly, nine, and Junior, two, they live in two cell-sized rooms, swept and clean. "My biggest worry is my daughters will find new husbands and forget these children. I can just about feed them, but it is a challenge. I am afraid for these children growing up in this slum. Last week two were drowned because of the water, the river came into the house. The mother went after the baby when it was swept out. It's sad, very sad. If anything happened to my children like that I would too follow them.

"They tell us they are going to build proper houses here and knock down our homes soon. So I am preparing to take them all back to the country. I am saving, and I hope by December we can go." Rosemary needs £60 to buy them all a ride on a lorry back to her village. But, like many in Kibera, she hasn't been back to the rural area where she was born since 1974 and has only word of mouth to rely on for what might await her there.

"I came here because of hunger. I'm still here."

Collins holds his baby daughter, Raquelle, who is 11 months old, as he stands with her mother, Sharon, 23, next to the Nygong river that flows through the centre of Kibera. The couple are not married, but have been together for four years and live with Collins' aunt. His parents died when he was very young. "Life is hard in Kibera, there is no work and every day we must go out and find a way of feeding our baby."

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'I fear for the children': the families battling to beat the odds in Kibera - photo essay

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Family takes many shapes and guises - and in Africa's largest slum the ties of love and blood are especially tested, cruelly sculpted by epidemics like HIV as well as strained by economic and climate crisesAll photographs by Kate Holt

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'This place used to be green': the brutal impact of oil in the 🤬 Delta

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Almost every day, Udengs Eradiri is informed of another oil spill in Bayelsa state, in the Niger Delta. Most of the time, little or nothing is done to clean up the mess, says Eradiri, the state's commissioner for the environment.

"You just need to take a tour to understand the magnitude of the environmental abuse," he adds. "[Bayelsa] used to be green, you could go to farm or fish. We used to have very impressive harvests. You would spend just an hour in the water and you have a lot of fish."

Today, he added, you can spend the whole day without catching anything.

Oil was first pumped in Bayelsa in 1956 by Shell. Since then, several international oil companies have extracted oil from across the Niger Delta.

In Bayelsa and elsewhere, communities have faced an environmental catastrophe. About 40 million litres of oil are spilled every year across the Niger Delta, according to the Rise for Bayelsa campaign.

Air, land and water have all been contaminated, with studies reporting devastating effects on residents' health and livelihoods. Vast areas of the state's waterways and mangrove swamps - one of the most diverse ecosystems in Africa - have been destroyed or put at risk. Farmland has been cloaked in oil, contaminating crops and exposing people to high levels of heavy metals such as chromium, lead and mercury.

Rather than processing gas, oil companies resort to the cheaper option of burning it as a waste product

Meanwhile, gas flares - where natural gas associated with petroleum extraction is burned off in the atmosphere - have filled the air with pollutants, and created acid rain.

"It's really telling on the people," saysEradiri. Of Bayelsa's estimated population of 2 million people, three-quarters rely on fishing or farming to support themselves. "Those communities are getting involved in other ways of surviving. And that's why there's been a lot of upsurge in criminal activities as well as artisan refining, all to survive."

Shell, one of the international oil companies operating in Bayelsa, says that oil spills due to crude oil theft, illegal refining and sabotage cause the most environmental damage in the Niger Delta.

"Our aim is to run a responsible business, which means operating safely without harm to people and protecting the local environment. In Nigeria, we operate to the same standards as other Shell-operated ventures globally. No spill is acceptable, and we work hard to prevent them," Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria said in a statement.

"We work closely with the regulators, local communities and other stakeholders to address this challenging issue and, irrespective of cause, we clean up and remediate areas affected by spills from our facilities or pipeline network," the statement added.

It said that in the case of operational spills, compensation is paid to people and communities impacted.

The company says its efforts to clean up areas have at times been hampered by instability, as its employees are unable to safely access affected areas.

"If you want to resolve the issues in the Niger Delta, if you want to totally eradicate the compromise on infrastructure, you must involve communities in the contractual agreement," says Eradiri. "That means it is not just owned by other people with other interests."

The effect of the oil industry on people's health in Bayelsa is still emerging. "Life expectancy is cut short - as low as 45. We used to have a very old population but, right now, that's not as visible as it used to be," says Eradiri. "You see premature babies, you see all kinds of funny illnesses, cancer, that [are] not normal for young people."

'All we see is oil in the forest. No more periwinkles to pick. No more crabs at the river. What is happening to our creeks?': Pelepre Newton, fisher and farmer

A recent study estimated that, in 2012 alone, 16,000 babies died within the first month of life because of oil pollution in the Niger Delta.

'When we complain, they attach negative labels to us like militants and vandals, to reduce the validity of our complaint': Nyinama Amos, youth leader

Separate research, cited by the interim report of theBayelsa State Oil and Environmental Commission, has found that pollution is placing communities at heightened risk of kidney damage, as well as diseases such as cancer, diabetes, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's. Campaigners report increased cases of diarrhoea and child malnutrition.

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'This place used to be green': the brutal impact of oil in the Niger Delta

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Almost every day, Udengs Eradiri is informed of another oil spill in Bayelsa state, in the Niger Delta. Most of the time, little or nothing is done to clean up the mess, says Eradiri, the state's commissioner for the environment. "You just need to take a tour to understand the magnitude of the environmental abuse," he adds.

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Plastic in paradise: the battle for the Galápagos Islands' future – video

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The Galápagos Islands are supposedly one of the most pristine locations on the planet, but plastic pollution arriving by sea is threatening this unique habitat and wildlife. Leah Green travels to the islands to see how our reliance on plastic is affecting even the most remote of locations, and to see how the archipelago is hoping to lead the worldwide fight against plastic

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Plastic in paradise: the battle for the Galápagos Islands' future - video

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The Galápagos Islands are supposedly one of the most pristine locations on the planet, but plastic pollution arriving by sea is threatening this unique habitat and wildlife.

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Liberia's miracle oil brings farmers only empty promises

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The sign at the entrance to the palm oil plantation in Grand Bassa has faded thanks to Liberia's relentless cycle of scorching sun and torrential rain. Even so, it's possible to make out the phrase: "Your community is rich: Let's have a fair share."

Several miles farther on, past endless rows of carefully cultivated palm trees, it's a slogan that bears little relation to reality. Gbenee Town is a small huddle of huts surrounded by a plantation more than six times the size of London's Richmond Park.

The townspeople say that the benefits of the plantation's expansion have passed them by and they have been duped by a government that took the land they were living off and gave it to foreign investors.

"The level we're living here is very deplorable," says G Hilary Gbah, one of the town's elders. "We are starving to death."

Gbah, 54, remembers the arrival in 2012 of Equatorial Palm Oil, the London-headquartered company that owns the plantation. "We embraced the company because we wanted development," he says, remembering the promises of schools and clinics if local people gave up land.

"We were expecting education for our children, employment, healthcare."

He still has a dog-eared list distributed by Liberia's government. It promised huge rewards if farmers agreed to the clearance of their land, at fixed amounts per plant for crops such as rubber and cassava. "They came and encouraged us ... that if we gave them the land then they were going to develop it, all the crops that we had on the land they were going to pay good prices."

Gbah - and many others - jumped at the chance. But when the time came for payment EPO handed over less than 10% of what they were expecting.

People talk of receiving $100 or less for the clearance of crops that could have sustained them for life. The clinics and schools never materialised. One local expert on community compensation, who asked not to be named, said the prices - promised by the government rather than the company - were always wildly unrealistic.

But those in nearby communities such as Blayah Town say they had no reason to doubt what they had been told. "They only fooled us and took our land," says Gbah.

Now farmers who once grew their own crops rely on charity or the offer of work from friends in neighbouring towns.

The palm oil industry, meanwhile, is thriving. Oil milled from palm fruit is something of a miracle product that has become indispensable to billions of consumers around the world, spawning $60bn industry that continues to grow.

Palm oil is found in everything from chocolate to bread, cereal and shampoo. It keeps crisps crispy and stops ice-cream from melting. There is a global process designed to promote ethics in the industry - the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) - but it has limited power to effect change.

Around the world palm oil continues to play a significant role in deforestation, threatening wildlife and fuelling the climate crisis. In rural Liberia, one of the world's poorest countries, the immediate concern is the impact that the industry's appetite for land is having on the people who live here.

For many people in Gbenee and nearby towns, land is the only thing of value that they have. Those who have given up their land, even after compensation offers were drastically reduced, say they did so for one reason alone: fear.

In communities from Blayah Town to Qwarkpojlian and Paye Town, elders and women's representatives recount a similar story.

When EPO arrived in 2012 to survey the land it had been awarded by the government, local people concerned that they had not been consulted gathered to protest. The company's representatives were accompanied by an armed police unit, a terrifying sight in a country still recovering from civil wars that left hundreds of thousands dead.

"Since the war finished in Liberia, that was the first day to see arms," said Garamondeh Banwun. "We were afraid." Banwun, like many people here, reports beatings handed out by police, some of whom - it is claimed - rode in EPO vehicles.

The company is keen to expand further in Grand Bassa but communities that were once open to development no longer trust the process to improve their lives. The alleged role of Liberia's underesourced state in this dynamic is crucial.

While neighbouring Ivory Coast's economy is the fifth fastest growing in the world, Liberia's is forecast to shrink by 1.4% this year. The government's annual budget is a paltry $570m. Former footballer George Weah swept to the presidency in 2017 but two years later optimism has given way to disillusionment among many of his supporters. Government employees are going without pay for up to four months at a time.

Beyond long-established rubber plantations and some iron ore mining, there is no industry to pull Liberia out of its slump. Palm oil's meteoric rise meant plantations have been seen as a huge opportunity. Little wonder that successive governments granted vast concessions, equivalent to around 25% of the country's land mass, to companies in the rubber, logging and palm oil trades.

But the companies involved are struggling to develop in a way that benefits those whose ancestral land has been sold from beneath them.

Historically, few of these communities have been included in the proper consultation process that advocacy groups refer to as free, prior and informed consent (FPIC). James Otto represents the Sustainable Development Institute (SDI), a non-governmental organisation based in Liberia's capital Monrovia with strong ties to palm oil communities.

"Companies continue to knowingly rob communities of their land and forest resources to their disadvantage - posing serious threats to their livelihoods and living spaces," says Otto.

SDI wants communities to be properly consulted over the benefits they will receive - such as schools, clinics and employment - and is calling for signed memorandums of understanding. "Consistent failure of oil palm companies including EPO to fulfil their social and environmental commitments continues to weaken the trust of communities and has dented the opportunities of communities for development," he says.

"Financiers of oil palm companies should ensure that the companies are in compliance with FPIC, respect labour rights and environmental standards."

EPO, however, is not certified by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil.

SDI and the communities in Grand Bassa are not inherently opposed to the palm industry, which has the power to create jobs and help develop infrastructure. And there has been at least some progress in ensuring that communities have more robust powers to protect themselves.

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The oil from palm fruits has become essential in the manufacture of products such as bread and chocolate. Photograph: Lai Seng Sin/Reuters

The Land Rights Act, which was passed last year, is key to that effort. It gives communities ownership of ancestral lands, allowing them to make demands of firms that want to exploit it. But it does not apply retroactively and, in a country with limited state presence, there are lingering doubts about whether it leads to the desired outcomes.

In some cases, the new law is having unintended consequences. A hundred miles south-east of Grand Bassa, down a mud-bath of a road lined with the rusting hulks of broken-down cars and trucks - lies the town of Shampee in Sinoe County. Here, EPO did bring benefits: employment and much-needed schools and clinics, staffed by teachers and nurses paid by the company.

But a protracted land dispute between neighbouring communities has deterred the company from further investment. Earlier this year it announced plans to pull out.

Like many of the staff in the clinic and school, midwife Caroline Weah was a contractor. She has worked in the company's clinic for six years but has limited redundancy rights. What's more, she says the company began slowing supplies to the clinic months ago.

"They usually gave us drugs every quarter," she says. "From July we don't have medicine so the patient load starts going down. Right now, no medicine. Somebody come, If I assess what they need, I don't have it. I give them prescription and they're not able to afford to buy."

"What will become of the pregnant women and the children?"

EPO's departure appears to have hit Shampee as hard as its arrival in Gbenee.

Such cases have convinced SDI that Liberia would be better off with smaller community-run plantations that could supply multinational firms' thirst for palm oil and put the wealth into the community. This model, says Otto, is the "only hope for prosperity and development that recognises rights and protects the environment".

Traidcraft Exchange, a UK-based campaign group, wants to see pressure applied through legal safeguards in markets such as the UK where demand for palm oil is created. "Things would have been very different if EPO had been required to consider the impact of these big land deals on local people," said senior policy adviser Tom Wills. "That's why Traidcraft Exchange and others are calling for new legislation that would make UK companies assess what risks they pose to human rights, and hold them to account in the courts for any abuses."

Equatorial Palm Oil is listed on London's Alternative Investment Market (Aim). Its ultimate majority owner is Malaysian firm Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad.

EPO declined to comment on the record. However, the company indicated that allegations about its role in violence by state police dated from some time ago. It also said it had been working hard to build consensus with local communities and indicated that the Liberian government had agreed to assume responsibility for the clinic in Shampee.

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Liberia's miracle oil brings farmers only empty promises

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The sign at the entrance to the palm oil plantation in Grand Bassa has faded thanks to Liberia's relentless cycle of scorching sun and torrential rain. Even so, it's possible to make out the phrase: "Your community is rich: Let's have a fair share."

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'We realised we can't stop this': locals flee inferno that smashed NSW village of Wingello

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When the sky turned an angry red and the wind roared like a freight train, David Bruggeman knew it was time to flee.

Bruggeman's place was among the first in Wingello, a sleepy village in the southern highlands region of New South Wales, to meet the fire front that tore in from bushland to the south on Saturday night.

He and other residents thought they would only face ember attacks from the distant Currowan fire, burning on the opposite side of the Shoalhaven River.
Explainer: how effective is bushfire hazard reduction on Australia's fires?
They were instead confronted by an inferno.

"I thought 'oh my goodness'. I said 'we've got to go'," he said.

What firefighters had feared for days had come to pass. Once the fire jumped the river, it grabbed hold in the dramatic and dense bushland of Moreton national park.

It lit up forests to Wingello's south, creating a new bushfire that tore northwards, out-of-control, flamed by strong winds.

"When the southerly hit, that's when things really got interesting. It formed pyro clouds. One had formed earlier in the day, but it formed three," Peter Lockerby, the RFS head of the Bundanoon Wingecarribee district, said.

"That means only one thing - the fires are moving quickly and burning profusely.

"It took a run of about 12km in two hours, which is just ridiculous. We have seen it before this season, up north, but we never thought for a second we'd experience it down here."

The fire split into two flanks, one to the north hitting Bundanoon and Exeter, and a southern point smashing Wingello, roaring through the state forest with "amazing speed", catching Forestry firefighters in an overrun which they were able to escape from.

"One moment it was darkness, and then it was dark red," Lockerby said.

In town,Bruggeman's plan to stay and fight quickly became futile.

"We heard this huge noise, like a freight train, then the red sky, all these embers raining down ... that's when we realised 'we can't stop this' and retreated," he told the Guardian.

Bruggeman fled to the general store he has owned and run for 11 years, a building that also serves as Wingello's post office.

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David Bruggeman, who miraculously escaped Wingello ahead of a bushfire that tore through the town on Saturday night. Photograph: Supplied by the Bruggeman family/Supplied

Within 20 minutes, the flames caught up. The fire approached the store's backyard.

He piled seven of his kids, his mother and father-in-law, and two friends into a van, and the family again fled, this time leaving town entirely for the relative safety of the Mittagong RSL, where they stayed during the horrors of last night.

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David Bruggeman took this photo of his store in Wingello as he escaped from a bushfire on Saturday night. Photograph: Supplied by David Bruggeman/Supplied

Around him, Bruggeman watched an apocalyptic scene. Homes were in flames all around him.

"We watched all these fires breaking out all across Wingello," he told the Guardian.

Kangaroo Island fires: Farmers shoot injured sheep after 'unfightable' bushfire ravages SA island

"We got the chance to escape, out by the main road, and we looked behind us and thought 'we've lost everything'. We were actually quite happy just to be alive."

Wingello has known fires before. The town's name is said to derive from an Indigenous language term meaning to "to burn". Bushfires destroyed houses and killed residents in 1965, and threatened the town again in 1998.

On his way out of town, Bruggeman took a picture of the inferno he was leaving behind and posted to Facebook.

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David Bruggeman took this photo of Wingello as he escaped from a bushfire that tore through the town on Saturday night. Photograph: Supplied by the Bruggeman family./Supplied

"Unless there is some stupendous miracle that defies any reason, we have lost the house and the shop. We fully expect to return to ashes where the house and shop now stand."

The morning brought with it extraordinary news. His son went into town and reported back that both the store and the home had somehow survived.

"He took a photo of the backyard of the shop ... not one blade of grass is blackened. The next door neighbours had a destroyed backyard, and across the road had a destroyed backyard, but our little block there somehow survived," he said.

"So we're just amazed."

Scott Maddox, who helps run Wilmotte cottage, a small bed and breakfast in the picturesque village, had left nothing to chance, making sure he was out of the area well in advance. He said information from the town had been limited, but said he'd been assured his place was safe. "Our place is still standing," he told the Guardian.

Many people in Wingello, Bundanoon and Penrose had left much earlier to avoid any risk of being trapped by the fire, and on Sunday the highlands villages were like ghost towns. Smoke hung heavy on the road, obscuring any columns which might indicate a blaze was nearing.

Fire and Rescue NSW crews fight bushfires in Bundanoon - video

But the weather and the quiet were incongruous to the massing of trucks and firefighters at Wingello station.

On the corner of the next block a property was laid waste, a smoking reminder of what could come again. Among the charred rubble and cars, blackened vines wrapped around a still standing chimney.

At what seemed to be the former front entrance, some bricks were still blonde and statues stayed upright. The red number 75 shone from the blue column next to stairs that now go nowhere.

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Klaus Elber in his fire bunker at his property in Penrose, NSW. Photograph: The Guardian

North of tiny Wingello and even tinier Penrose, Klaus Elber was staying on Sunday to defend as the fire continued to burn. It was just him and the bushland property he's spent so many years building and perfecting.

He's a former RFS volunteer, and had cleared as much as he can.

If that's not enough, he's built a bunker. There's a few around, but his is pretty rudimentary. The old diesel tank buried under two feet of dirt, with a sealable air vent and stairs leading down to the door. It's not pretty, it's not comfortable, but come a fire front, it's liveable, he says.

"It's better than a wombat hole," he said.
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'We realised we can't stop this': locals flee Wingello fires inferno that smashed NSW village

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When the sky turned an angry red and the wind roared like a freight train, David Bruggeman knew it was time to flee. Bruggeman's place was among the first in Wingello, a sleepy village in the southern highlands region of New South Wales, to meet the fire front that tore in from bushland to the south on Saturday night.

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Rebel alliance ready to put a halt to the ‘disneyfication’ of Edinburgh

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For 800 years or so the castle that keeps watch above Scotland's capital has borne witness to the bloody rise and fall of kingdoms and nations. Now, the war is one of ideas, with Edinburgh's eternal soul on the line.

On one side is Underbelly, the London events company which claims to have taken Edinburgh's Hogmanay celebrations to another level. It is backed by a city council which has gleefully watched the numbers rise in those indexes that confer tourism superstardom: unique-users, profits and exposure.

Facing them is a rebel alliance of permanent residents and community enterprises who are aghast at the creeping "disneyfication" of one of Europe's most beautiful cities. Mike Small is co-founder of Citizen, launched last April to bring together local groups seeking to restore Edinburgh as "a place for people rather than profit".

"Tourists have flocked to Edinburgh for centuries, attracted by its natural beauty and its wonderful built heritage," he told the Observer. "It doesn't need to put on cheap makeup and fancy new clothes to make itself look good. Each year the Hogmanay celebration and the Christmas market on Princes Street Gardens that accompanies it, together with the ever-growing international festival and fringe, eats up more and more of our public spaces."

In the wake of claims that permanent residents were made to wear wristbands and seek permits for private visitors to their own homes during the Hogmanay celebrations, more than 1,000 residents have applied to join Citizen. A campaign of "civic sabotage" has already been discussed. Protesters could film roped-off events on smartphones and then beam footage onto buildings in neighbourhoods where residents resent being charged up to £170 to go into their own city centre to see them. Flash crowds well-briefed in Scotland's public access and right of way laws may also seek admission at entry hotspots in the security cordon.

Underbelly and the council claim their winter festivals are raising the profile of Edinburgh and bringing in much-needed tourism revenue. The company said 183,857 people attended the city's Hogmanay last year, and there were 929,219 registered visitors to the Christmas market - 99% of whom rated it "good" or "very good". A further 28,000 tickets to Edinburgh's Christmas were given to young people and community groups. From this the company calculated that the community benefit was more than £1m and that the combined contract for the two events saves the city £1m per year.

Edinburgh doesn't need to put on cheap make-up and fancy new clothes to make itself look good

Mike Small, Citizen

Underbelly's Ed Bartlam, who co-directed Edinburgh's Hogmanay last week, said: "Balance is the key word. You've got to find the balance of viewpoints. There's a view of some people in the city that there's too many events related to tourism. But there's a huge majority, I think, that just love these events, love Hogmanay."

Small questioned how savings to the city were calculated. "It's disingenuous to talk about savings and huge visitor increases. Edinburgh has been one of Europe's most popular visitor destinations for decades. Have we reached a point where the main measure of a city's worth is calculated in increased profits and privatising the heart of the city?

"At this time of year our own citizens who pay for the city's year-round upkeep want to come together with friends, family and visitors from overseas without paying a private company for the privilege.

"What we are seeing here is a process where everything is commoditised and where the need to make bigger profits is more important than the lived experience and culture of the city itself. Nor has there been anything resembling a public consultation about any of this."

As well as producing Edinburgh's Christmas and Hogmanay, Underbelly has put on Christmas in Leicester Square, West End Live in Trafalgar Square and Pride in London for Westminster city council. Critics say it may soon become difficult to differentiate one festival from another as their unique identities are lost in endless pop-up stalls, "Bavarian" markets and open-air concerts.

In Glasgow, where the local economy is bracing itself for further cuts in public spending, the suggestion that it too could attempt its own lucrative Hogmanay festival was given short shrift by a council source: "We'd never turn Glasgow into a theme park."
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Rebel alliance ready to put a halt to the 'disneyfication' of Edinburgh

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For 800 years or so the castle that keeps watch above Scotland's capital has borne witness to the bloody rise and fall of kingdoms and nations. Now, the war is one of ideas, with Edinburgh's eternal soul on the line. On one side is Underbelly, the London events company which claims to have taken Edinburgh's Hogmanay celebrations to another level.

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Britons reach Africans’ annual carbon emissions in just two weeks

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The average British person will have emitted more carbon dioxide in the first two weeks of this year than a citizen of any one of seven African nations does in an entire year.

This is the key finding of an Oxfam project, published on Sunday, which discovered that someone in the UK will take just five days to emit the same carbon as someone in Rwanda does in a year.
In 2020, the UK must seize the chance to lead the world on the climate emergency
And by next Sunday, 12 January, the average Briton's emissions will have overtaken the annual per capita emissions of a further six African countries: Madagascar, Malawi, Ethiopia, Uganda, Guinea and Burkina Faso.

The study revealed that annual emissions of carbon dioxide, per head of population, is 0.09 tonnes in Rwanda, 0.19 in Malawi and 0.25 in Burkina Faso. Further up the scale, it was found that Nigeria emits 0.49 tonnes of carbon per person every year while in India the figure is 1.68. These figures compare with a global average of 4.7 tonnes per person per year. In Britain the figure is 8.3.

Danny Sriskandarajah, the chief executive of Oxfam GB, described the scale of global inequality revealed by the study as staggering. "It's a shock to realise that in just a few days our high-carbon lifestyles here in the UK produce the same emissions as the annual footprint of people in some poor countries. However, the encouraging thing is the willingness of the British public to take action."

This view is supported by the results of a YouGov poll, carried out for Oxfam and also published on Sunday. It shows that 61% of people in Britain want the government to do more to address the climate emergency. Most respondents also say they would be willing to act to reduce their own carbon footprints.

The poll found that 55% of Britons say they worry about the impact of global heating and as many as 79% said they were likely to take one of a number of actions to reduce their carbon footprint.

Responses ranged from 79% of people who said they were likely to recycle more, down to 38% who were likely to change their diet, such as by eating less meat or dairy. More than two-thirds (68%) said they were likely to use energy-efficient products or utility providers, and almost half to limit their air travel (49%) or buy ethically made or second-hand products (49%).

"Just as large numbers of the public are resolving to reduce their carbon footprint, we need a bold new year's resolution from the prime minister to get us on track to net-zero emissions much earlier than the current 2050 deadline," added Sriskandarajah. "As the UK government gets ready to host global climate talks later this year, it needs to show that it is deadly serious about leading the fight against climate change."
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Britons reach Africans' annual carbon emissions in just two weeks

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The average British person will have emitted more carbon dioxide in the first two weeks of this year than a citizen of any one of seven African nations does in an entire year.

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The land of giants and dwarfs

Islands are both a land of giants and dwarfs. Komodo has its famous dragons and Madagascar a giant hissing cockroach. On the tiny side of things, islands are home to everything from rabbits, foxes and snakes that are smaller than their mainland counterparts - right through to the ultimate oxymoron, the pygmy mammoth, which once existed in numerous forms from the Channel Islands off the coast of California to Wrangel Island in the Siberian Arctic.

When it comes to learning all about a particular species, size is everything. Professor Felisa Smith is a paleoecologist from the University of New Mexico, she specialises in how species evolve and how they change when they become isolated. Professor Smith spoke to us for the Isolation episode of the BBC Earth Podcast.

"When new species go to islands - maybe they rafted there on a log, or were isolated there by rising sea levels - this can lead to strange morphologies [the form and structure of organisms], and for mammals it's often the case that they get bigger or smaller," she tells us.

"Rodents, for example, tend to become very large on islands, whereas larger-bodies creatures - deer, for instance - get smaller."

This phenomenon even has a name: Foster's rule, or the 'island effect'. Foster's rule was the first attempt to account for their evolutionary roulette seen across various species. In 1964, a young biologist named J Bristol Foster discovered some interesting island trends. Rodents living on islands tend towards gigantism, while carnivores, artiodactyls (including deer and hippos) and lagomorphs (rabbits and hares) are more likely to become dwarfed. So why does this happen?

"Body size is the single-most important thing about an animal - it regulates everything," says Professor Smith. "If you know the body size of an animal, you know how much it eats, how fast it walks, how long its lifespan is likely to be, how many babies it's going to have, the kinds of food it can eat or not eat. All those things are tied in to body size."

Are komodo dragons an island dwarf? © Elizabeth White/BBC NHU 2016

There is active selection on body size occurring all the time. That's why, in a mainland environment, being large is often a safer and adaptive form of avoiding predators. Being on an island, with no natural predators and less competition, means there is no longer an advantage to being really big, in fact, it can be a hindrance as the animal will need a lot more food in order to survive and reproduce.

On an island, food sources can be limited, so over evolutionary time there is a shrinkage and this happens astonishingly fast. You could have an elephant dwarfing to the size of an Old English Sheepdog in a relatively speedy, 10,000 years. "In some cases, you went from having mammoths that weighed 10 tonnes reduce down to the size of a Shetland pony, or maybe even a very large dog," Professor Smith tells us.

In a mere 6,000 years after it found itself isolated on Jersey, one of the Channel Islands off the coast of France, the red deer dwarfed to one-sixth its size on continental Europe.

Many biologists have found that island species evolve much quicker than their mainland counterparts. Not only does this happen in recent years, but it has also occurred in the Mesozoic age where so large dinosaurs known as sauropods experienced dwarfism when they came to live on islands.

One of the most curious evolutionary cases is that of the Komodo dragon, the world's largest lizard. By all appearances, this voracious monitor lizard represents an archetypal case of gigantism. The Komodo can grow up to 3m long (10 feet) and weigh 150kg (330 pounds), but a much heftier monitor, a 7m long (23 foot), 621kg (1,370 pound) monster, lived on the mainland in Australia during the Pleistocene era, 11,700 years ago.

Which then begs the question: could the Komodo dragon, the deadliest lizard on Earth, actually be an island dwarf? A terrifying thought, indeed.

BBC Earth presents a podcast the size of a planet, telling stories about nature, science and our human experience.

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Featured image by anankkml/Getty

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Giant rats and tiny hippos: the weird world of islands

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The land of giants and dwarfs Islands are both a land of giants and dwarfs. Komodo has its famous dragons and Madagascar a giant hissing cockroach.

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London borough of Newham enjoys Britian's biggest house price rise

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Interest in Stratford spiked in wake of the Olympics which saw cash ploughed into the once sleepy borough

Injection of funding has seen apartments, restaurants and the massive Westfield shopping centre spring up

Nine of the top 10 areas to see the biggest average house price increases are all boroughs in the capital

Homeowners in Newham have enjoyed the largest property price increases in the country over the last decade.

A scramble to snap up properties in Stratford spiked in the wake of the 2012 Olympics which saw cash ploughed into the once sleepy East London Borough as part of a colossal regeneration project.

This injection of funding has seen apartments, restaurants and the massive Westfield shopping centre spring up at breakneck speed.

But even this rampant housing drive has not kept up with the huge demand from would-be buyers, and since 1999 the average property price has jumped from £76,000 to £400,500, a 429 per cent hike.

Newham bags the top spot in a list compiled by mortgage titan Halifax, which has plotted the climbs in house values by area over the last 10 years.

In 1999, the average cost to buy a home was £91,199 but this has since ballooned to £279,999 - an increase of 207 per cent.

Although every corner of the country has seen swelled house prices - and no area has had anything less than a 100 per cent climb - London has by far excelled the typical rise.

Nine of the top 10 areas to see the biggest average house price increases are all boroughs in the capital.

Hot on the heels of Newham is neighbouring Waltham Forest, whose house prices have soared from £94,091 to £487,488, a 418 percent hike.

Like Stratford, Walthamstow has also been overhauled in recent years and now boasts excellent transport links with the City - one can get from the borough to Liverpool Street in 20 minutes on the overground train.

Lewisham, Redbridge and Hackney round out the top five, seeing gains of 379 per cent, 346 per cent and 339 per cent respectively.

The only non-London outlier in the top 10 is Brighton and Hove, which has seen house price increases of 315 per cent from £93,492 to £387,750.

In recent years the seaside town has become an enclave for young, trendy liberals which has made it attractive to young would-be buyers.

Stratford estate agent Ian Merchant told the Guardian: 'When I started working here 18 years ago we were lucky to get £170,000 for a terraced house.

'We thought they would never go through £200,000. Now they sell for £500,000.'

The ultra-modern flats in the East Village offer spectacular views of the sprawling Olympic Park, which itself still fizzes with activity seven years on from the Games.

Every other weekend, thousands of West Ham fans flock to the stadium to watch their team play, and other sporting events still take place in the aquatics centre, velodrome and Copperbox Arena.

In 2016 questions arose this this week about whether overseas investors should be banned from buying in Britain after a developer stated it would sell 'only to' British buyers.

The developer - East Thames Group - backtracked immediately after it was suggested that the wording in the marketing literature for it's new development in London's Stratford could be illegal.

The wording stated: 'East Thames has committed to selling only to owner/occupiers or UK based investors.'

The developer backtracked after it was highlighted to them, blaming the error on its creative agency and insisting that the wording was 'categorically incorrect'.

Large swathes of new developments in the capital have been sold to overseas buyers in recent years, prompting concerns they're inflating prices and squeezing out first-time buyers.

However, with prices starting at more than £360,000 for a one bedroom flat, it may only be investors - or buyers with a significant deposit or annual salary - who can afford to buy one.

Outside of the capital, some areas have only seen meager increases in their house prices, with a disproportionate of the bottom 10 in Northern Ireland.

The cost of a home in Newry, Mourne and Down, on the east coast of the peninsula, is only just double what it was in 1999. It has risen from £78,843 to £162,222, a gain of 106 per cent.

But despite the shallow climb, locals are optimistic that revived transport links will motivate people to snap up homes while they are relatively cheap.

Coun Charlie Casey said: 'We're roughly halfway between Dublin and Belfast and we're finding now that some people are buying here and commuting every day on the train down to Dublin'.

Two other Northern Irish places, Antrim and Newtonabbey and Derry and Strabane are also in the bottom five with similarly gloomy increases.

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London borough of Newham enjoys Britain's biggest house price rise

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Interest in Stratford spiked in wake of the Olympics which saw cash ploughed into the once sleepy borough Injection of funding has seen apartments, restaurants and the massive Westfield shopping centre spring up Nine of the top 10 areas to see the biggest average house price increases are all boroughs in the capital Homeowners in Newham have enjoyed the largest property price increases in the country over the last decade.

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A former down-at-heel corner of east London, the borough of Newham, has witnessed the steepest rise in property prices in the UK this century, according to data from Halifax, while the slowest increases have been in Newry in Northern Ireland.

The average house price in Newham has leapt by 429% since the start of the century, from £75,762 in 2000 to £400,574, a gain of 429%. The borough encompasses Stratford, home to the 2012 Olympics, and is peppered with new glass and steel residential towers, as well as some of the most deprived wards in the UK.

"When I started working here 18 years ago we were lucky to get £170,000 for a terraced house," said estate agent Ian Merchant, of Bairstow Eves in Stratford. "We thought they would never go through £200,000. Now they sell for £500,000."

The 429% gain in Newham compares with the UK average 207% increase in house prices in the two decades to November 2019, according to figures prepared exclusively for the Guardian by Britain's biggest mortgage lender. The second most rapid price growth was in Waltham Forest, a north-east London borough. Hackney, Barking and Dagenham and Redbridge, all boroughs in east or north-east London, all featured among the top 10 risers.

Only one local authority outside of London - Brighton and Hove - was ranked in the top 10 for price growth this century.

But the figures also reveal how far house prices have marched ahead of wage growth since the start of the millennium. While the average UK house price has tripled from £91,199 to £279,998 over the past 20 years, wages have risen only by about 70%.

There were no price rises of less than 100% anywhere in the UK over the two decades.

House price changes

However, interest rates have tumbled since 2000, easing the pain for homebuyers, as well as underpinning high prices. In 2000, a two-year, fixed-rate mortgage for first-time buyers from Abbey (now Santander) carried an interest rate of 6.79%. Today, the bank's best deal is priced at 1.89%.

The local authority with the lowest price growth has been Newry, Mourne and Down, in the south-east of Northern Ireland, where the average price rose from £78,843 to £162,222.

In late 1999, the typical home in that part of the Northern Ireland, dominated by the Mourne mountains in the south and Strangford Lough in the north, fetched a few thousand more than the average home in Newham. But today, while £250,000 will buy a four-bed, three-bathroom detached home in about a quarter of a hectare (0.5 acres) in Newry, it's only enough for a one-bed ex-council flat in Stratford.

Four local authority areas in Northern Ireland appeared at the bottom of the table for price growth in the UK, with Newry joined by Derry, Antrim and Lisburn.

The factors driving house prices in Northern Ireland are markedly different from the rest of the UK. In the early part of the century, the peace dividend spurred price rises, followed by the extraordinary Celtic Tiger property boom in the Republic that reverberated across the border into Newry, before spectacularly crashing. More recently, Brexit and its impact on the border with Ireland has dominated the property market.

"House prices have always been on the low side here," said Charlie Casey, Sinn Féin councillor and chairperson on the Newry, Mourne and Down council. But with the market soaring again in the Dublin area, some people are taking advantage of low prices around Newry. "We're roughly halfway between Dublin and Belfast and we're finding now that some people are buying here and commuting every day on the train down to Dublin.

"A hard border would have been an absolute disaster," Casey added. "A Brexit border down the Irish sea at least leaves the island of Ireland as more of a single economic entity. Let's see how that works out."

In Newham, the Olympics sparked a construction boom in the area, which has transformed the skyline. "I remember very well the day they announced the Olympics were coming to London," says Merchant. "We had a three-bedder on at £200,000. The day after the announcement, we had an offer of £250,000 on it."

House price rises in the area cooled markedly after 2015, said Merchant, with many properties still 10% below their peak, partly because tax on buy-to-let homes has removed many investment buyers. "Five years ago, about 70% of buyers were buy-to-let. Now, most landlords are selling up or sticking with what they have because of the changes in tax."

But a cooling market is little comfort for Newham council, which says housing stress in the borough is intense. The borough's population has risen more rapidly than almost anywhere else in the UK, jumping from 243,891 in the 2001 census to an estimated 352,005 in 2018, an increase of 44%.

Newham's mayor, Rokhsana Fiaz, wrote to the chancellor, Sajid Javid, this week following the Conservative election victory. "Of all London boroughs, Newham spends the most on temporary accommodation, a figure of some £61.1m in 2017-18. We have a housing waiting list of over 27,000, and high levels of homelessness in our borough. Truly, the sharp edge of the housing crisis is felt by Newham residents," she said.

Fiaz is deeply concerned that in the days before the election, the government quietly raised the interest rate for council borrowing by one percentage point, making it more difficult for Newham to finance new council houses.

Meanwhile, looking back over the past year, the fastest-rising prices have not been in London but in the north-east and north-west of England.

In Billingham, Co Durham, average house prices grew by the most, from £192,717 in October 2018 to £216,328 in the same month in 2019, a rise of 12.3%. House prices in the town, birthplace of the Billy Elliot actor Jamie Bell, are around eight times that of the average salary (£26,471).

At the opposite end of the table are many locations around London and the south-east where prices have fallen. In Harrow, north London, prices declined by 3.6% in the year to October 2019, said Halifax.

One area of London manages to appear in both the top 10 over 20 years and the bottom 10 over one year. Prices in Bexleyheath fell by 0.1% over the last 12 months, said Halifax but the Bexley local authority area recorded a gain of 311% over 20 years.
Topics

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Newham in east London has steepest house price rises of the century

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A former down-at-heel corner of east London, the borough of Newham, has witnessed the steepest rise in property prices in the UK this century, according to data from Halifax, while the slowest increases have been in Newry in Northern Ireland.

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Cornwall, Porthcurno, 2017. From the recent exhibition Only Human by Martin Parr (Magnum Photos / Hollandse Hoogte). You can read more about these pictures underneath the article.

During the four weeks of eventually called at the end of October, than again was usual for that time of year. At the time of writing - -

Against this backdrop, much else has been happening that hasn't received sustained - if any - attention.The numbers of people dying, week in, week out, tell us more about the four countries of the UK than we could ever hope to learn from the attention given to Brexit. This is a kingdom falling apart.

So, what is going on?

In early 2014, Read the article here. trying to highlight that the fact that something very unusual was happening:

The authorities then tried to blame the flu, but these death rates did not rise and fall as they would following an influenza epidemic - and an epidemic would have been noticed across Europe.

A country obsessed with just one issue - Brexit

In normal times, in a normal country, a fall in life expectancy would be a big deal. But nothing is normal about the UK.

Since the Brexit referendum, British press, politicians and people have become obsessed with just one issue. The fall in life expectancy after 2014 was officially described as a 'slowdown'

A boy ends up being treated on the floor of a hospital because the beds are all full, and the beds are full because the system is not working overall. Premature deaths among elderly people in the UK began rising after the social service facilities they relied on were massively cut and NHS funding was first severely squeezed. And deaths continued to rise as the cuts got deeper.

There has also been a rise in infant mortality. In England and Wales, this rise was concentrated in those same years of maximum public spending cuts. In 2014, 3.6 babies died for every 1,000 born. That rose to 3.7 in 2015, 3.8 in 2016, and 3.9 in 2017 (which sadly is the latest year for which we have data, as funding for ONS has also been cut).

Though the change appears to be minuscule,according to the ONS, each rise was statistically significant. It means that enough extra babies died to increase that statistic by an amount that almost certainly did not occur by chance. Policy played a part - most importantly, policy concerning the funding of maternity units, the training of midwives, and the social services available to pregnant women. Most of the additional infant deaths each year occurred in the first few days or weeks of the child's life.

The effects of austerity

Austerity in the UK was a political choice made in the summer of 2010. Its effects have been devastating.

The UK has reduced public spending to 36% of GDP by the end of 2019 from a peak of 41% in 2006. Today, rates of public spending in the UK as a whole are only a fraction above those of the US. Almost every other country in the EU spends more on its public services than the UK does; almost every other country in Europe now has a lower infant mortality than the UK. These are facts the British have simply accepted because we have been distracted by Brexit. These are the facts that very few British voters knew when they voted on 12 December 2019. Messages about them were either ignored or crowded out.

Today, rates of public spending in the UK as a whole are only a fraction above those of the US. Almost every other country in the EU spends more on its public services than the UK

The UK is also now the most unequal large nation in Europe. It had been the second most equal large nation in the 1970s (after Sweden) but became the most unequal by not curtailing greed. Under Margaret Thatcher, the former prime minister,the share of income taken by the top 1% was allowed to grow and grow. Taxes on the well-off were reduced and wages for the worse-off fell in real terms; fell even more for those who could not work.

The unequal kingdom

Once a state becomes highly unequal, it can enter a spiral of decline. All the most unequal rich nations in the world are now falling apart in one way or another and all have a "strong man" in charge: USA, Russia, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, Israel. On 12 December 2019, the people of the UK confirmed their membership in that club of the world's most unequal affluent countries headed by a strong man.

More equitable countries tend not to have a leader who matters all that much, a head of government who is not that well known. They also tend to have lower far-right voting, higher overall turnout at elections, higher spending on public goods as a proportion of GDP, fewer (social class)-segregated schools, better quality secure housing, less homelessness, much better mental health, and higher life expectancy. Jobs in such countries are better paid for the majority of people and less precarious.

For those in the middle of the spectrum of the income distribution, it is paying the rent that is their biggest expense. The average person aged under 65 in the UK now rents privately with almost no security of tenure. For those towards the bottom, it is the dependency on food banks, greatly increased precarity, and the very real risk of homelessness.

For everyone, life expectancy has fallen. The middle classes experienced it first as many of the elderly women who saw their life expectancy drop in 2014 were middle class. Working-class women have never lived as long.

What happens now?

Sometimes things fall apart. The centre does not hold, but in Britain anarchy is not immediate. Instead, there has been a long, slow disintegration of social norms and expectations. Today, new independent countries are hardly ever formed, but the UK has gone about creating the circumstances in which still future separation is possible.

Other scenarios are also possible. Great social change has often happened in the past when a younger generation has been fully exposed to the folly of their parents and grandparents.

Following Suez, young people voted differently to their parents in sufficient number to bring in governments in 1964 and 1966 that helped to slowly transform the UK, making it one of the most equitable countries in Europe. Read about the whole history in my book Inequality and the 1% (third edition), which has just been published. so that almost all children could, for the first time, be educated together. Social security was brought in for mothers, rights to housing were extended. There was both full and well-paid employment. And the greed of the rich was curtailed. This resurgence after crisis could well happen again.

Britain's leaders show scant regard for the environment; they're indifferent to plans to take away the freedom to work or study in the rest of the EU or to marry whom they want to marry - unless, of course, their income is high enough to warrant them staying in the UK. Our unfair private rented housing system prevents huge numbers from thinking they can start their own family.

If you were trying to stir up the young, this is how you might go about it.

About the images British photographer Martin Parr has spent decades documenting the idiosyncrasies of mass culture and British identity. Since the country voted to leave the European Union, he has mainly pointed his lens at the heartlands of anti-EU sentiment. Even though his photographs are famous for their humour and absurdism, Parr's intent is serious: he wants to explore what it means to be British. (Lise Straatsma, image editor) See more work by Martin Parr

Dig deeper

The British are going to miss Europe. Not for what it is, but for what it's not How Boris Johnson will deliver Brexit is yet to be seen. One thing is for sure: it's hard for the British to truly see what they'll be missing once they leave the EU because the story of Europe is largely an account of all that has vanished. Read more here

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The biggest story in the UK is not Brexit. It's life expectancy

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Cornwall, Porthcurno, 2017. From the recent exhibition Only Human by Martin Parr (Magnum Photos / Hollandse Hoogte). You can read more about these pictures underneath the article. During the four weeks of eventually called at the end of October, than again was usual for that time of year.

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Treasury breaks old rules so more money can be spent on the North

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Treasury bosses will rip up decades-old rules to allow more money to be spent in the North and Midlands

Treasury 'rewriting regulations that make it hard for investment to be approved'

Part of Boris Johnson's election promise to invest tens of billions in communities

Advisor Dominic Cummings says existing rules favour London and south east

Treasury officials are to tear up decades-old rules to allow more money to be spent in the Midlands and north of England.

They are understood to be rewriting the regulations which critics say make it hard for government investment decisions to be approved in those areas.

Greater weight would be given to improving the wellbeing of people rather than simply focused on overall economic growth, The Times reported.

The change is seen as key to Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plans to invest tens of billions of pounds in communities which backed the Tories for the first time at the election.

His most senior advisor, Dominic Cummings, has argued that the existing rules favour London and the south east because they have to maximise economic return.

They are used to evaluate everything from transport infrastructure to spending decisions on scientific research.

A senior Treasury official told The Times: 'It is a very big thing. You have to think about all the outcomes you want to achieve and work it backwards.'

The proposal was also endorsed by Lord O'Donnell, the former Cabinet Secretary who said it was an 'excellent idea'.

Mr Johnson has repeatedly said he wants to reduce the disparity between different parts of the country and 'level up' by spending on those which have been denied spending in the past.

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Treasury breaks old rules so more money can be spent on the North

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Treasury 'rewriting regulations that make it hard for investment to be approved' Part of Boris Johnson's election promise to invest tens of billions in communities Advisor Dominic Cummings says existing rules favour London and south east Treasury officials are to tear up decades-old rules to allow more money to be spent in the Midlands and north of England.

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Jane and Noel have never met. They probably never will, even though they go about their lives within sight of each other.

Jane is a 30-year-old mother of five. On the Thursday before Christmas, Jane walked through the pouring rain to a food bank in a Salvation Army church in Poplar, east London. She is unemployed and has had her benefits stopped as she waits to be transferred on to the government's "simplified" universal credit system. She won't get her first payment until 20 January.

Noel Quinn is the interim chief executive of HSBC. He spent his Thursday morning running one of the world biggest banks from his office on the top floor of HSBC's global headquarters in adjacent Canary Wharf. Quinn is the frontrunner to be appointed permanent CEO. His predecessor, John Flint, was paid £4.6m last year, and was in line to collect a maximum of £11.9m this year.

The panoramic view from Quinn's luxurious office suite takes in the Salvation Army church, where Jane is telling her life story to case workers at the First Love Foundation food bank as other volunteers pack up bags of food to help her through the next month with no money coming in. She turned down some of the more expensive foods on offer, saying: "There are people more in need of it than me, save it for them."

Jane, who recently had a miscarriage and suffered years of domestic abuse, is living in a two-bedroom flat. "The two little ones are in with me," she says. "The boys share the other room, and my eldest daughter is on a pull-out bed in the lounge." Her daughter suffers from congenital incontinence, and hasn't had a dry night in a decade.

The father of her 10- and nine-year-old boys took his own life a month after the younger boy was born. Jane says he was struggling with self-esteem issues because he thought he couldn't properly provide for his family. The father of her youngest two children subjected her to years of domestic abuse, and stole child support income to feed his heroin and crack cocaine addiction. He is now in jail.

The local authority, Tower Hamlets, began public law outline (PLO) proceedings, the start of the formal process to consider taking her children into care. She fought back, and has kept custody of them, but social workers still make regular assessments.

When Jane is switched over to universal credit she is likely to be hit by the benefit cap and see the total she receives fall by £346 a month. Jane will also be hit by the two-child limit on child benefits. She is already struggling to pay her rent and is thousands of pounds in arrears.

She is on the council's waiting list for a four-bedroom home, but has been told to expect a 14-year wait. More than 20,000 families are on the waiting list in Tower Hamlets - almost one in six of all households in the borough. A more realistic option, for Jane and others with larger families, is to arrange a housing swap with a council outside London.

Jane had stopped eating in order to scratch together enough money to feed her children. It shows. She is painfully thin and has lost several of her teeth, a sign of malnutrition. "I go without food," she tells Denise Bentley, the co-founder and chief executive of the First Love Foundation. "You've got to sacrifice to ensure your children don't go hungry."

Jane tells Bentley that she has gone for weeks at a time only eating bread, because it momentarily makes her feel full.

Tower Hamlets has the capital's highest level of child poverty, at 43%. This is despite hosting many of highest-paid people in the world, working in the headquarters of banks including HSBC, Barclays, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan in Canary Wharf, a 10-minute walk away from the food bank.

More than 3,500 bankers - mostly working in Canary Wharf or the City of London - are paid more than £850,000 a year, according to data published by the European Banking Authority. Thirty bankers were paid more than £8.5m and one asset manager collected £35m.

HSBC said it supports community investment programmes across the UK, including the East London Business Alliance and Cardboard Citizens, which are based in Tower Hamlets. It did not state how much money or time it contributes. Barclays said its staff volunteer for the First Love Foundation and had donated 50,000 food items.

Bentley, who founded the First Love Foundation in 2010, used to work in the City. "I was one of them," she says gesturing to the towers. "I worked as a forex [foreign exchange] trader until I was made redundant in the [2008-9] financial crisis," she says. "What is happening to people here is horrendous, and I had to do something."

The First Love Foundation provides food to 150 people in crisis every month. An additional 200 people will receive a cardboard box Christmas hamper and presents for children. "But our mission is to not have any more clients to feed," Bentley says. "We want to solve the underlying problems that have led people into crisis." Most of the problems, she says, are caused by the introduction of universal credit and public spending cuts. At the centre, clients are given help and support with housing and ensuring they are getting all the benefits they are entitled to.

Rachel Blake, the Labour deputy mayor of Tower Hamlets, says the crisis facing Jane and thousands of others in the borough and across the county is due to "the Conservative government's decade of austerity and cuts".

"The benefit system is completely and totally broken, and we have a housing crisis," she says. "Universal credit should be scrapped, now."

Blake says the council is "taking a stand for our residents" and has pumped £6.6m into a "tackling poverty fund" supporting 834 people with housing payments and with cash to help those struggling with the five-week wait to switch to universal credit.

"The food banks are papering over the cracks, but residents should not be reliant on the kindness of strangers," Blake says. "We need a social security system that works for everyone.

"We know we are a borough of contrasts," she says when asked about the proximity of the global banking headquarters to the food bank. "The characterisation of London being wealthy doesn't ring true to our residents - the inequalities could not be starker."

Jane hasn't really considered the gleaming towers of Canary Wharf that are literally casting shadows over the food bank as she makes her way home with a trolley full of food. "I know they must be making a lot of money up there, but they must have worked very hard to get there and have good qualifications," she says. "Good luck to them, I say. Merry Christmas."
The First Love Foundation has been overwhelmed with long-life foods, but financial donations can be made here. Jane's name has been changed. Topics

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A tale of two cities: London's rich and poor in Tower Hamlets

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Jane and Noel have never met. They probably never will, even though they go about their lives within sight of each other. Jane is a 30-year-old mother of five. On the Thursday before Christmas, Jane walked through the pouring rain to a food bank in a Salvation Army church in Poplar, east London.

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Trump Attacks Windmills in Speech to Conservative Group: ‘I Never Understood Wind’

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Banana Island, which is Nigeria's answer to Paris's Seventh Arrondissement, San Diego's La Jolla, New York City's Tribeca and Tokyo's Shibuya and Roppongi, is a small man-made island in the Ikoyi neighborhood of Lagos.

Completed in 2000, it's a billionaires' paradise populated by the country's richest and most well-known families, who savor its quiet, peaceful atmosphere far from the clamor and crowds of Lagos, the country's largest city and financial center.

Its name comes from its distinct shape.

Boundaries

The 1.63-million-square-meter sand-filled island in Lagos Lagoon is a little more than 5 miles east of Tafawa Balewa Square, the commercial and ceremonial heart of Lagos. A dedicated road connects it to a network of roads near Parkview Estate. First Avenue in the north and Second Avenue in the sound merge and run around its perimeter.

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Price Range

As in the rest of the country, real estate prices on Banana Island are based on the value of the land, which according to Roberta Nouboue, managing director of Madingwa Real Estate, is NGN400,000 (US$1,101 per square meter).

Ms. Nouboue said prices for detached houses, which rarely come on the market because there are not many on the island, start at NGN1 billion (US$2.75 million). The most expensive listing now on the market, NGN5 billion, is for a six-bedroom detached house on 2,600 square meters of land, she said.

She added that four-bedroom, single-family terrace/townhouses that are on average 400 square meters and are on 1,000 square meters of land generally range from NGN350 million to NGN500 million.

One current listing, she said, is for NGN750 million. That's the price for each of the twin townhouses on 600 square meters of land.

The island also has three prominent condo developments: Ocean Parade Towers, Bella Vista Towers and Lakepoint Apartments.

More: Glasgow's Pollokshields Has Mansions, Green Spaces and an Artsy Vibe

"There are more apartments and terrace houses than detached single-family homes because land is so scarce and land prices are so high," Ms. Nouboue said. "Most of them are owned by individuals and rented out to tenants who pay NGN25 million to NGN30 million annually."

She said it's possible to buy a unit for about NGN363 million "because value has dropped significantly in the last three years with the devaluation of the naira. It's illegal to market real estate in anything but naira."

Of the three condo developments, Ocean Parade is considered the most top-notch, she said, because of its many amenities, which include tennis courts, an Olympic-size pool, two gyms and children's areas.

Housing Stock

As originally planned, Banana Island was to be an uber-exclusive enclave of single-family detached estates divided into 535 property plots that ranged from 1,000 to 4,000 square meters. House heights were to be capped at three stories.

The first homes were built on the south side of the island, but as land prices skyrocketed through the years, high-rise condo developments were built on the north side, which also houses the area's commercial corridor. There are three mixed-use high-rises-the Adunola, the oldest, and Lakepoint Towers and Desiderata, which were built in the last two years.

"The first houses that were built are in British and Dubai traditional styles," Ms. Nouboue said. "They are very ostentatious and have nice gardens. The newer ones are more modern, with straight angles, and they are less elongated because they are on less land."

More: Fiesole, Italy, Offers a Village Feel Just Outside Florence

Buyers have a choice of two- to four-bedroom en-suite flats, maisonettes and terrace houses, added Charles Onyenze, an associate at Knight Frank. "Typically, a very large percentage of homes are customized, while a few are large estates accommodating a number of prototype houses," he said.

Swimming pools, Ms. Nouboue said, are quite popular. And nearly every house has a gym, she added.

Apartment buildings, Mr. Onyenze said, come fully stocked with amenities that include fitted kitchens, walk-in-wardrobes, intercom systems, security surveillance systems and standby generators.

What Makes It Unique

Beauty and seclusion set Banana Island apart.

"Banana Island is a piece of heaven in the middle of noisy Lagos," said Ms. Nouboue, adding that the island has two parks. "It offers security, tranquility and privacy. To get to the island, you have to pass through a security gate. It's by invitation only."

She added that because there is not much car traffic, "you can jog in peace."

Mr. Onyenze said the island's security network, good roads, 24/7 street lighting and proximity to the waters of Lagos Lagoon make it special.

It also offers status. "Having a presence in Banana Island is an indication of your societal class," he said.

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Luxury Amenities

Although Banana Island's main street offers little more than a café, a barbershop and a large supermarket, chic shopping areas and restaurants on Victoria Island are only a 12-minute car ride away.

"Victoria Island is like Manhattan," Ms. Nouboue said.

Her favorite restaurants include NOK by Alara, which serves new African cuisine; Z Kitchen, which offers succulent steaks; and R.S.V.P., which specializes in international dishes.

"R.S.V.P. is a great place to go on Friday nights," she said. "It's elegant, and they invite the biggest DJs in the world. They serve cocktails, and there's a pool."

For art, residents head to Ikoyi, which is five minutes away by car. It is home to Arthouse Contemporary, a local auction house; the Wheatbaker hotel, which holds art exhibits and art-related events; and the Nigerian National Museum, which features the best in Nigerian art.

More: Comporta, a Portuguese Village Where the Well-Heeled Go for Some Privacy

Ikoyi also is a shopping destination. Exclusive shops include the handbag purveyor Zashadu, the high-fashion clothier named for the Nigerian designer Ejiro Amos Tafiri, and the functional/fashionable clothing designs of Grey.

Ms. Nouboue also praised Alara, the Victoria Island shop that celebrates African craft. "It's a beautiful concept store designed by architect David Adjaye, and it has everything from fashion to furnishings," she said.

Although Banana Island School, which enrolls boys and girls who are 1 to 5 years old, and Olive Dale Preparatory School, which is a nursery-through-primary school, are the only ones on the island, there are a variety of top-notch schools in Ikoyi.

They include Lagos Preparatory & Secondary School, a co-ed day school for students 18 months old to over 16 years; the British International School, a British curriculum secondary school for students 7 through 13 years old that offers a boarding option; and St. Saviours, a British curriculum school for children up to 6 years of age.

"Most of the schools stop at the primary level because people tend to send their children to boarding schools in the U.K. and the U.S.," Ms. Nouboue said.

Residents also are attracted to the high-tech infrastructure on the island that's not available in the rest of the country. Banana Island's electrical and water systems are underground, there's a central sewage system and treatment plant as well as street lighting and satellite telecommunications networks.

More: Abu Dhabi's Al Reem Island Is a (High-End) Work in Progress

Who Lives There

In addition to Nigeria's wealthiest people, Banana Island draws a variety of ex-pats from the United States, Britain, Lebanon, India and France. They work for multinationals as well as the mega mobile-network operator Etisalat Nigeria; Airtel Nigeria, the provider of prepaid, postpaid mobile and 4G services; Ford Foundation Nigeria, a nonprofit whose mission is to advance human welfare; and the law firm of Olaniwun Ajayi & Co., which all have headquarters there.

"A big set of people are tenants in the high-rises," Ms. Nouboue said. "Most of the owners of single-family homes live here full time, but they also have houses in the U.K. or the U.S.."

The island is ideal for families, she said, adding that the residents are well established and around 45 years old.

More: The Beach is Always Close in Cottesloe, by Perth, Australia

Notable Residents

Mike Adenuga, the billionaire owner of Globacom, the country's second largest telecom operator and of the oil exploration firm Conoil, lives on the island, according to Ms. Nouboue and published reports.

So, according to published reports, does Iyabo Obasanjo, daughter of the former president Olusegun Obasanjo; Sayyu Dantata, son of Alhassan Dantata, who, when he died in 1955 was one of the wealthiest men in West Africa; Kola Abiola, the son of the businessman/politician MKO Abiola; identical twins Peter and Paul Okoye, aka P-Square, the Nigerian R&B duo; and Nigerian mega-blogger Linda Ikeji.

Outlook

When Banana Island was built nearly two decades ago, there was no other luxury spot like it in Nigeria, but it now has competition.

Ms. Nouboue said that Eko Atlantic City, a 10-district, 10-square-kilometer luxury high-rise community being constructed on Victoria Island on land reclaimed from the Atlantic Ocean, has created a sea change in the Banana Island market even though only the first buildings have been completed.

"It looks more like Miami, and the ex-pats are starting to like it more," she said, adding that the project is due to be completed in about 15 years. "As Banana Island did in the beginning, it restricts the types of homes that can be built. Built on a beach, it has water views and roads like those in the U.S. It has not impacted the prices in Banana Island significantly, though the fact that there are more options in the luxury market has definitely reduced the high and fast increase of prices that we could have noticed a decade ago."

More: Click for more profiles of high-end neighborhoods around the world

Ms. Nouboue said that the prices at Eko are higher than those at Banana Island, adding that it's not unusual for a flat to be listed for NGN1billion.

"Banana Island is all about location," she said. "It offers easier access to the mainland, and it's closer to the airport. But the habits of people change. Everyone wants smaller homes because their kids leave and more people are selling their mansions to live in three-bedroom flats, where they don't have to worry about maintenance and using a generator for electricity."

Mr. Onyenze remains convinced that the "real estate market looks promising in the future, as there are visible signs of massive development in progress."

He conceded that prices have dropped about 30%, but said that "the economy will improve. It will not be slowed down in perpetuity."

He said Banana Island's exclusivity always will remain attractive to "the highest echelon of the society."

Mr. Onyenze conceded that prices have dropped about 30% in the last three-and-a-half years because of a combination of factors, including the devaluation of the naira, decreased prices for crude oil, inflation, high interest rates, job cuts and divestment by multinational organizations from the Nigerian economy.

But he said that he's optimistic that "the economy will improve. It will not be slowed down in perpetuity."

He pointed to recent reports by the National Bureau of Statistics that indicated that the non-oil sector, which includes construction and real estate, grew by 2.05%, and that the Nigerian recession ended in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Given all these factors, he said Banana Island's exclusivity always will remain attractive to "the highest echelon of the society."

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Banana Island in Lagos is a Billionaire's Paradise

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Banana Island, which is Nigeria's answer to Paris's Seventh Arrondissement, San Diego's La Jolla, New York City's Tribeca and Tokyo's Shibuya and Roppongi, is a small man-made island in the Ikoyi neighborhood of Lagos.

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News organization Reuters has released the pictures of the decade.

The images include royal weddings, historic moments and scenes that show the power of nature.

This is a selection of 10 of the best photos of the 2010s.

As the second decade of the century draws to a close, Reuters has released its Pictures of the Decade. These images show some of the people, places and events that have shaped our recent history.

This selection, based on Reuters' 142 Pictures of the Decade, marks some of the highs and lows of the past 10 years.

1. The Northern Lights are seen above the ash plume from the Eyjafjallajӧkull volcano in Iceland, 22 April 2010.

Image: REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/

2. Britain's Prince William and his wife Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge, kiss on the balcony at Buckingham Palace following their wedding in London's Westminster Abbey, UK, 29 April 2011.

3. Usain Bolt of Jamaica looks at Andre De Grasse of Canada as they compete in the 2016 Rio Olympics, Men's 100m Semi-Finals at the Olympic Stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 14 August 2016.

4. Pakistani teenage activist Malala Yousafzai, who was shot in the head by the Taliban for campaigning for girls' education, signs a copy of her book before an event launching her memoir at the Southbank Centre in London, UK, 20 October 2013.

5. Smoke billows as fire engulfs the spire of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris, France, 15 April 2019.

6. A tree in the Amazon rainforest burns as the area is cleared by farmers in Rio Pardo, Rondȏnia, Brazil, 15 September 2019.

7. An aerial view of a coastal town devastated by Super Typhoon Haiyan in Samar province, Philippines, 11 November 2013.

8. Lone activist Ieshia Evans stands her ground while offering her hands for arrest as she is approached by riot police during a protest outside the Baton Rouge Police Department in Louisiana, USA, 9 July 2016. ( REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman)

9. US President Donald Trump meets with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the demilitarized zone separating North and South Korea, in Panmunjom, South Korea, 30 June 2019. ( REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque)

10. Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg joins French Youth for Climate campaigners at the "questions to the government" session at the National Assembly in Paris, France, 23 July 2019. ( REUTERS/Philippe Wojazer)

World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with our Terms of Use.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

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10 striking images that tell the stories of the decade

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News organization Reuters has released the pictures of the decade. The images include royal weddings, historic moments and scenes that show the power of nature. This is a selection of 10 of the best photos of the 2010s. As the second decade of the century draws to a close, Reuters has released its Pictures of the Decade.

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How do you stop a megacity grinding to a halt? A cartoon

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Until four years ago Dar Es Salaam had no public transport. Artist Popa Matumula looks at the impact a new bus system is having on the city's legendarily bad traffic

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Cornwall, Porthcurno, 2017. From the recent exhibition Only Human by Martin Parr (Magnum Photos / Hollandse Hoogte). You can read more about these pictures underneath the article.

During the four weeks of eventually called at the end of October, than again was usual for that time of year. At the time of writing - -

Against this backdrop, much else has been happening that hasn't received sustained - if any - attention.The numbers of people dying, week in, week out, tell us more about the four countries of the UK than we could ever hope to learn from the attention given to Brexit. This is a kingdom falling apart.

So, what is going on?

In early 2014, Read the article here. trying to highlight that the fact that something very unusual was happening:

The authorities then tried to blame the flu, but these death rates did not rise and fall as they would following an influenza epidemic - and an epidemic would have been noticed across Europe.

A country obsessed with just one issue - Brexit

In normal times, in a normal country, a fall in life expectancy would be a big deal. But nothing is normal about the UK.

Since the Brexit referendum, British press, politicians and people have become obsessed with just one issue. The fall in life expectancy after 2014 was officially described as a 'slowdown'

A boy ends up being treated on the floor of a hospital because the beds are all full, and the beds are full because the system is not working overall. Premature deaths among elderly people in the UK began rising after the social service facilities they relied on were massively cut and NHS funding was first severely squeezed. And deaths continued to rise as the cuts got deeper.

There has also been a rise in infant mortality. In England and Wales, this rise was concentrated in those same years of maximum public spending cuts. In 2014, 3.6 babies died for every 1,000 born. That rose to 3.7 in 2015, 3.8 in 2016, and 3.9 in 2017 (which sadly is the latest year for which we have data, as funding for ONS has also been cut).

Though the change appears to be minuscule,according to the ONS, each rise was statistically significant. It means that enough extra babies died to increase that statistic by an amount that almost certainly did not occur by chance. Policy played a part - most importantly, policy concerning the funding of maternity units, the training of midwives, and the social services available to pregnant women. Most of the additional infant deaths each year occurred in the first few days or weeks of the child's life.

The effects of austerity

Austerity in the UK was a political choice made in the summer of 2010. Its effects have been devastating.

The UK has reduced public spending to 36% of GDP by the end of 2019 from a peak of 41% in 2006. Today, rates of public spending in the UK as a whole are only a fraction above those of the US. Almost every other country in the EU spends more on its public services than the UK does; almost every other country in Europe now has a lower infant mortality than the UK. These are facts the British have simply accepted because we have been distracted by Brexit. These are the facts that very few British voters knew when they voted on 12 December 2019. Messages about them were either ignored or crowded out.

Today, rates of public spending in the UK as a whole are only a fraction above those of the US. Almost every other country in the EU spends more on its public services than the UK

The UK is also now the most unequal large nation in Europe. It had been the second most equal large nation in the 1970s (after Sweden) but became the most unequal by not curtailing greed. Under Margaret Thatcher, the former prime minister,the share of income taken by the top 1% was allowed to grow and grow. Taxes on the well-off were reduced and wages for the worse-off fell in real terms; fell even more for those who could not work.

The unequal kingdom

Once a state becomes highly unequal, it can enter a spiral of decline. All the most unequal rich nations in the world are now falling apart in one way or another and all have a "strong man" in charge: USA, Russia, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, Israel. On 12 December 2019, the people of the UK confirmed their membership in that club of the world's most unequal affluent countries headed by a strong man.

More equitable countries tend not to have a leader who matters all that much, a head of government who is not that well known. They also tend to have lower far-right voting, higher overall turnout at elections, higher spending on public goods as a proportion of GDP, fewer (social class)-segregated schools, better quality secure housing, less homelessness, much better mental health, and higher life expectancy. Jobs in such countries are better paid for the majority of people and less precarious.

For those in the middle of the spectrum of the income distribution, it is paying the rent that is their biggest expense. The average person aged under 65 in the UK now rents privately with almost no security of tenure. For those towards the bottom, it is the dependency on food banks, greatly increased precarity, and the very real risk of homelessness.

For everyone, life expectancy has fallen. The middle classes experienced it first as many of the elderly women who saw their life expectancy drop in 2014 were middle class. Working-class women have never lived as long.

What happens now?

Sometimes things fall apart. The centre does not hold, but in Britain anarchy is not immediate. Instead, there has been a long, slow disintegration of social norms and expectations. Today, new independent countries are hardly ever formed, but the UK has gone about creating the circumstances in which still future separation is possible.

Other scenarios are also possible. Great social change has often happened in the past when a younger generation has been fully exposed to the folly of their parents and grandparents.

Following Suez, young people voted differently to their parents in sufficient number to bring in governments in 1964 and 1966 that helped to slowly transform the UK, making it one of the most equitable countries in Europe. Read about the whole history in my book Inequality and the 1% (third edition), which has just been published. so that almost all children could, for the first time, be educated together. Social security was brought in for mothers, rights to housing were extended. There was both full and well-paid employment. And the greed of the rich was curtailed. This resurgence after crisis could well happen again.

Britain's leaders show scant regard for the environment; they're indifferent to plans to take away the freedom to work or study in the rest of the EU or to marry whom they want to marry - unless, of course, their income is high enough to warrant them staying in the UK. Our unfair private rented housing system prevents huge numbers from thinking they can start their own family.

If you were trying to stir up the young, this is how you might go about it.

About the images British photographer Martin Parr has spent decades documenting the idiosyncrasies of mass culture and British identity. Since the country voted to leave the European Union, he has mainly pointed his lens at the heartlands of anti-EU sentiment. Even though his photographs are famous for their humour and absurdism, Parr's intent is serious: he wants to explore what it means to be British. (Lise Straatsma, image editor) See more work by Martin Parr

Dig deeper

The British are going to miss Europe. Not for what it is, but for what it's not How Boris Johnson will deliver Brexit is yet to be seen. One thing is for sure: it's hard for the British to truly see what they'll be missing once they leave the EU because the story of Europe is largely an account of all that has vanished. Read more here

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The biggest story in the UK is not Brexit. It's life expectancy

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Cornwall, Porthcurno, 2017. From the recent exhibition Only Human by Martin Parr (Magnum Photos / Hollandse Hoogte). You can read more about these pictures underneath the article. During the four weeks of eventually called at the end of October, than again was usual for that time of year.

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Too often the concept of a circular economy is muddled up with some kind of advanced recycling process that would mean keeping our industrial system as it is and preserving a growing consumption model.

This idea is based on a belief that recycling will take care of everything.

One of the most startling examples of this is the part of the European Union's Circular Economy Action Plan which aims to increase recycling rates: up to 70% of all packaging waste by 2030 and 65% of all municipal waste by 2035. In a properly built circular economy, one should rather focus on avoiding the recycling stage at all costs. It may sound straightforward, but preventing waste from being created in the first place is the only realistic strategy.

While we obviously need to continue recycling for quite some time, putting the emphasis on genuine circular innovations - that is, moving us away from a waste-based model - should be our sole objective.

Recycling is linear

In a linear economy, we do not account for the side-effects generated by a product once sold to an end customer. The aim is to sell a maximum number of products at minimal cost. Continuous pressure to reduce costs leads to the creation of many of these side-effects - called externalities by economists. The higher a company's rate of production and the higher its efficiency, the more successful it will be at selling its goods in a fiercely competitive environment.

What is a circular economy?

This worked well in the 20th century when resources were easily available and raw material prices kept decreasing. Waste, as an economic externality, was not the producers' responsibility. Managing waste cycles, dumping it out of sight or, at best, recycling it - but only when it was cost-effective - were under the control of our national institutions.

Visionary manufacturers, who understand the upcoming challenges of increasing their economic resilience, know better: a product that is returned for repair will cost less to fix and sell again, than manufacturing it from scratch.

In our current model, we extract resources, transform them into products, and consume or use them, prior to disposing of them. Recycling only starts at the throwing-away stage: this is a process that is not made to preserve or increase value nor to enhance materials.

We need to understand that recycling is not an effective strategy for dealing with unused resource volumes in a growth model. We will find ourselves in a never-ending pursuit of continuously generated waste, rather than seeing the avoidance of waste as a path to beneficial innovations on many levels.

Of course, it is easier to think about recycling. This avoids changing the whole of our volume-based production model. But in a world where we have to shift our consumption patterns and use less energy, recycling no longer has all the answers.

Recycling is 'business-as-usual'

Since we cannot stop the volume of waste overnight, investments in the recycling industry are needed. But truly meaningful investment in developing a circular economy takes place outside of the recycling space. Indeed, the more we recycle and the more we finance recycling factories, the more we stay 'linear'. We mistakenly believe this is the best route to solve our problems - but by staying in a recycling-based economy, we will delay the transition to an advanced circular economy.

In a circular economy, resources do not end up as recyclables since products are made to last several lifecycles. Products' lifespans are extended via maintain, repair, redistribute, refurbishment and/or re-manufacture loops, thus they never end up in the low-value, high-need-for-energy loop: recycling.

We live in a world in dire need of disruptive innovations. Closing loops next to where customers live while avoiding waste is a short and longer-term win-win for any leading re-manufacturer. Short-term because you are in direct contact with your customers, and taking back a product that needs maintenance is an opportunity to better understand their needs and help them with additional services. Long-term because you will lower your exposure to future financial risks. Any of the feedback loops that exist prior to the recycling loop are an opportunity to take back control over your stock of resources - taking control away from the raw material markets, which may become highly volatile. Increased interactions with your customers, both commercial and financial, and an in-depth understanding of their needs, would increase customer loyalty and a business' overall resilience.

Re-using, re-distributing and/or remanufacturing strategies are the preferred approaches in a circular economy, as they are based on parts durability. Caring for and preserving the value of product components increases corporate economic resilience, while diminishing external market risks. Whether you are acting in a highly advanced or a developing economy, these strategies make crystal-clear sense: they are less costly in the long-run because repairing a product made to last is always less expensive than producing it from scratch.

Leapfrogging into valued supply chains

Following this approach, we must move away from activities that devalue the material, such as recycling, and instead invest in those activities that preserve it: reuse and remanufacture. These two are especially important since they create many more secure jobs. Walter R. Stahel, the godfather of the modern circular economy, introduced the metric of labor input-per-weight ratio (man-hour-per-kg, or mh/kg) to measure job creation in relation to resource consumption. He found that the ratio of mh/kg when building a remanufactured engine from used resources compared to making the same engine from virgin materials is 270:1. The impact on employment is huge.

The re-localization and the re-sizing of activities closer to customers become critical. Production sites should migrate from a highly centralized global hub to units designed to fulfill local needs. In developed markets, a possible plan could be to develop strategic partnerships with local service providers, who can provide the infrastructure. In emerging markets, where there is often an urgent need for jobs, leapfrogging straight into a national re-manufacturing strategy is the way forward. Becoming the next 'world factory' hub is an obsolete vision today.

One way to start thinking like a leader in the next economy while creating jobs could be in order of priority:

- Reuse by repairing (goods) through re-hiring (people), while sharing the radical benefits (awareness) of such a model

- Redistribute by promoting access (goods) through collaboration (people), while sharing information (awareness) about this model

- Remanufacture via the ease of disassembly (goods) by training (people), while sharing the acquired knowledge (awareness) through this model

- Migration of recycling activities by diverting (goods) to service models, transferring skills (people) to remanufacturing processes (awareness).

All of the above make sense in a world where planetary limits have already hit most economies.

Adopting a circular strategy by avoiding reliance on recycling is the way forward.

This is about genuine innovation derived from genuine leadership.

This article was originally published in UNIDO's Making It magazine

World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with our Terms of Use.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

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For a true circular economy, we must redefine waste

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Too often the concept of a circular economy is muddled up with some kind of advanced recycling process that would mean keeping our industrial system as it is and preserving a growing consumption model. This idea is based on a belief that recycling will take care of everything.

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'I fear for the children': the families battling to beat the odds in Kibera – photo essay

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Rosemary Achia, 53, has two daughters. One has a job washing clothes in Nairobi and the other works in a hotel, so all seven grandchildren live with her.

"I am a little old for this," she says. "I have been 11 years a widow. He was a good man but God gives and God takes away."

Now she takes in washing, knits pullovers, and sells tomatoes.

"When you are alone, you have to do everything. You cannot choose."

As she talks, twitching at the yarn dollies on the armchair that she crochets at a church women's craft group, Velma, 12, Mary, 11, and 10-year-old Owen are poking through the plastic sheeting on the roof, looking for the small dead body of a rat we can all smell but not find.

Along with Millicent, 26, Ashly, nine, and Junior, two, they live in two cell-sized rooms, swept and clean. "My biggest worry is my daughters will find new husbands and forget these children. I can just about feed them, but it is a challenge. I am afraid for these children growing up in this slum. Last week two were drowned because of the water, the river came into the house. The mother went after the baby when it was swept out. It's sad, very sad. If anything happened to my children like that I would too follow them.

"They tell us they are going to build proper houses here and knock down our homes soon. So I am preparing to take them all back to the country. I am saving, and I hope by December we can go." Rosemary needs £60 to buy them all a ride on a lorry back to her village. But, like many in Kibera, she hasn't been back to the rural area where she was born since 1974 and has only word of mouth to rely on for what might await her there.

"I came here because of hunger. I'm still here."

Collins holds his baby daughter, Raquelle, who is 11 months old, as he stands with her mother, Sharon, 23, next to the Nygong river that flows through the centre of Kibera. The couple are not married, but have been together for four years and live with Collins' aunt. His parents died when he was very young. "Life is hard in Kibera, there is no work and every day we must go out and find a way of feeding our baby."

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'I fear for the children': the families battling to beat the odds in Kibera - photo essay

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Family takes many shapes and guises - and in Africa's largest slum the ties of love and blood are especially tested, cruelly sculpted by epidemics like HIV as well as strained by economic and climate crisesAll photographs by Kate Holt

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'This place used to be green': the brutal impact of oil in the 🤬 Delta

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Almost every day, Udengs Eradiri is informed of another oil spill in Bayelsa state, in the Niger Delta. Most of the time, little or nothing is done to clean up the mess, says Eradiri, the state's commissioner for the environment.

"You just need to take a tour to understand the magnitude of the environmental abuse," he adds. "[Bayelsa] used to be green, you could go to farm or fish. We used to have very impressive harvests. You would spend just an hour in the water and you have a lot of fish."

Today, he added, you can spend the whole day without catching anything.

Oil was first pumped in Bayelsa in 1956 by Shell. Since then, several international oil companies have extracted oil from across the Niger Delta.

In Bayelsa and elsewhere, communities have faced an environmental catastrophe. About 40 million litres of oil are spilled every year across the Niger Delta, according to the Rise for Bayelsa campaign.

Air, land and water have all been contaminated, with studies reporting devastating effects on residents' health and livelihoods. Vast areas of the state's waterways and mangrove swamps - one of the most diverse ecosystems in Africa - have been destroyed or put at risk. Farmland has been cloaked in oil, contaminating crops and exposing people to high levels of heavy metals such as chromium, lead and mercury.

Rather than processing gas, oil companies resort to the cheaper option of burning it as a waste product

Meanwhile, gas flares - where natural gas associated with petroleum extraction is burned off in the atmosphere - have filled the air with pollutants, and created acid rain.

"It's really telling on the people," saysEradiri. Of Bayelsa's estimated population of 2 million people, three-quarters rely on fishing or farming to support themselves. "Those communities are getting involved in other ways of surviving. And that's why there's been a lot of upsurge in criminal activities as well as artisan refining, all to survive."

Shell, one of the international oil companies operating in Bayelsa, says that oil spills due to crude oil theft, illegal refining and sabotage cause the most environmental damage in the Niger Delta.

"Our aim is to run a responsible business, which means operating safely without harm to people and protecting the local environment. In Nigeria, we operate to the same standards as other Shell-operated ventures globally. No spill is acceptable, and we work hard to prevent them," Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria said in a statement.

"We work closely with the regulators, local communities and other stakeholders to address this challenging issue and, irrespective of cause, we clean up and remediate areas affected by spills from our facilities or pipeline network," the statement added.

It said that in the case of operational spills, compensation is paid to people and communities impacted.

The company says its efforts to clean up areas have at times been hampered by instability, as its employees are unable to safely access affected areas.

"If you want to resolve the issues in the Niger Delta, if you want to totally eradicate the compromise on infrastructure, you must involve communities in the contractual agreement," says Eradiri. "That means it is not just owned by other people with other interests."

The effect of the oil industry on people's health in Bayelsa is still emerging. "Life expectancy is cut short - as low as 45. We used to have a very old population but, right now, that's not as visible as it used to be," says Eradiri. "You see premature babies, you see all kinds of funny illnesses, cancer, that [are] not normal for young people."

'All we see is oil in the forest. No more periwinkles to pick. No more crabs at the river. What is happening to our creeks?': Pelepre Newton, fisher and farmer

A recent study estimated that, in 2012 alone, 16,000 babies died within the first month of life because of oil pollution in the Niger Delta.

'When we complain, they attach negative labels to us like militants and vandals, to reduce the validity of our complaint': Nyinama Amos, youth leader

Separate research, cited by the interim report of theBayelsa State Oil and Environmental Commission, has found that pollution is placing communities at heightened risk of kidney damage, as well as diseases such as cancer, diabetes, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's. Campaigners report increased cases of diarrhoea and child malnutrition.

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'This place used to be green': the brutal impact of oil in the Niger Delta

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Almost every day, Udengs Eradiri is informed of another oil spill in Bayelsa state, in the Niger Delta. Most of the time, little or nothing is done to clean up the mess, says Eradiri, the state's commissioner for the environment. "You just need to take a tour to understand the magnitude of the environmental abuse," he adds.