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Projected growth of the global population (Dreval, Popova)

1. Today, the percent of population growth increases by 1,10 per cent per year.

2.At the same time, survival rates increase in all countries as death rates continue to decline throughout the age range.

3.But there are some factors in reason population could stabilize before 20100.

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Most of the increase in global population can be attributed to a small number of countries (Elistratova + Lokteva)

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Most of the increase in global population can be attributed to a small number of countries (Elistratova + Lokteva)

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2017-2050 it’s expected that 1/2 world’s population growth will be concentrated in 9 countries:India, Nigeria,Democratic Republic of Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania,USA, Uganda and Indonesia

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Projected growth of the global population(Dreval, Popova) 

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Projected growth of the global population(Dreval, Popova) 

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Projected growth of the global population

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Globally, population aged 60 or over is growing faster than all younger age groups (Elistratova + Lokteva)

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Globally, population aged 60 or over is growing faster than all younger age groups (Elistratova + Lokteva)

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Population aged 60 and over is growing for about 3% per year. A potential support ratio can be defined as the number of persons aged 20 to 64 divided by the number aged 65 or over. By 2050 36 countries are expected to have potential support ratios below 2.

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Populations in many parts of the world are still young; opportunity for demographic dividend (Lisa Mineeva + Pasha Kislov)

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Populations in many parts of the world are still young; opportunity for demographic dividend (Lisa Mineeva + Pasha Kislov)

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Populations in many regions are still comparatively young. Proportions of children in these regions are projected to decline further in the near future, while numbers and proportions in the prime working ages can be expected to grow. Countries with relatively high ratios of working to dependent populations have the possibility of benefitting from a “demographic dividend,” provided that there are sufficient opportunities for productive engagement in the labour force by the expanded working-age population.

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Europe, Northern America and Oceania are net receivers of international migrants; Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the

Caribbean are net senders. (Dreval, Popova)

1. migration can be a positive force for economic and social development

2. From a demographic perspective, migration is a much smaller component of population change

3.Movements of people from Asia, Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean toward Europe, Northern America and Oceania are a key feature of global migration patterns for almost half a century, migration flows within regions is important.

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Globally, population aged 60 or over is growing faster than all younger age groups. Lokteva, Eli

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Globally, population aged 60 or over is growing faster than all younger age groups. Lokteva, Eli

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Population aged 60 and over is growing for about 3% per year. A potential support ratio can be defined as the number of persons aged 20 to 64 divided by the number aged 65 or over. By 2050 36 countries are expected to have potential support ratios below 2.

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Continued low fertility to lead to shrinking population in some countries (Lisa Mineeva + Pasha Kislov)

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Continued low fertility to lead to shrinking population in some countries (Lisa Mineeva + Pasha Kislov)

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Fertility in all European countries is now below the level required for replacement of the population in the long run (around 2.1 births per woman, on average) and, in most cases, has been below the replacement level for several decades. Fertility for Europe as a whole is projected to increase from 1.6 births per woman in 2010-2015 to nearly 1.8 in 2045- 2050. Such an increase, however, will not prevent a likely contraction in the size of the total population.

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Diversity in population growth rates across regions (Lisa Mineeva + Pasha Kislov)

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Diversity in population growth rates across regions (Lisa Mineeva + Pasha Kislov)

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Although the world’s population is expected to continue growing until the end of the 21st century, the rate at which this growth will occur is expected to continue to fall.
Because of large numbers of children in Africa, their childbearing will contribute to a further increase of population even assuming that they will bear fewer children on average than their parents’ generation. In all plausible scenarios of future trends, Africa will play a central role in shaping the size and distribution of the world’s population over the next few decades.
The concentration of population growth in the poorest countries will make it harder for those governments to eradicate poverty, reduce inequality, combat hunger and malnutrition, expand and update education and health systems, improve the provision of basic services and ensure that no-one is left behind.

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Large variations in fertility levels across countries and regions (Anna Lokteva + Polina Elistratova)

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Large variations in fertility levels across countries and regions (Anna Lokteva + Polina Elistratova)

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Last time many countries have experienced major reductions in the average number of births. The largest fertility level is in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the United Republic of Tanzania, Uganda and Afghanistan.

Intermediate-fertility countries: India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Mexico and the Philippines.

Low-fertility countries now include all of Europe and Northern America, plus 19 countries of Asia, 15 in Latin America and the Caribbean, 3 in Oceania and 2 in Africa.

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Future population growth is highly dependent on the path that future fertility will take (Anna Lokteva + Polina Elistratova)

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Future population growth is highly dependent on the path that future fertility will take (Anna Lokteva + Polina Elistratova)

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Global fertility is projected to fall from just over 2.5 births per woman in 2010-2015 to around 2.4 in 2025-2030 and 2.0 in 2095-2100

Reproductive health care services should improve to achieve couples’ desired family size and as a result to increase the birth rate.

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Increasing longevity around the world; progress against major challenges (Kpumie and Snovalkina)

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Increasing longevity around the world; progress against major challenges (Kpumie and Snovalkina)

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Life expectancy at birth rose frome 67,2 to 70,8 years, the greatest gains were in Africa. Deaths among children under age 5 fell from 70 per 1000 in 2000-2005 to 48 per 1000 in 2010-2015. Life expectancy at birth is projected to rise from 71 years in 2010-2015 to 77 years in 2045-2050 due to effectiveness of treatment, reduction of epidemic deseases and deaths from cancer and hepatitis.

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Snapshot of global population in 2017 (Kpumie and Snovalkina)

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Snapshot of global population in 2017 (Kpumie and Snovalkina)

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The world’s population numbered nearly 7.6 billion people. China and India still remain the two most populous countriesof the world. The numbers of men and women are roughly equal.