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Public Opinion Polls:
https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/latest-poll
https://www.texaslyceum.org/resources/Documents/2018PollPressRelease2.pdf
https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/2018-election-polling-texas
Candidates websites:
https://kenpaxton.com/
https://www.nelsonfortexas.com/
Party websites:
https://www.texasgop.org/
https://www.txdemocrats.org/
https://www.gop.com/
https://democrats.org/

Secretary of State website for the state:
https://www.sos.state.tx.us/

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-I think Ken Paxton will win the election.
-The first reason is because he’s an incumbent. Incumbents usually win elections, especially when their party holds the majority in the state. Texas has usually leaned Republican, and Ken Paxton is a Republican incumbent.
-The second reason is because he’s winning in the most recent popularity polls. The popularity polls give likely outcomes of elections, and while at times they can be wrong, they are often accurate. I believe the popularity polls for this election.
-Justin Nelson could win by highlighting Ken Paxton’s fraud indictment. That alone has brought the race fairly close, so Justin Nelson could win by making Ken Paxton look like a criminal. However, I doubt that would happen since many people either don’t take voting seriously and don’t pay attention to what the candidates are saying about each other. Many Texans are Republican so they’ll probably see that Ken Paxton is Republican and vote for him, or they might recognize his name since he’s an incumbent.

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Honestly, while it's being looked to be replaced, voting straight ticket is still a voting method many use in Texas and, since this is a state mostly made up of Republicans, odds are Paxton will be included in their vote. People also just don't like change that they don't necessarily see as beneficial. Paxton seems to have been doing okay despite these fraud counts, so more conservatives are likely to see this as a negative that still beats voting someone completely new into office (especially since the other person running isn't conservative). Also, people like me who don't watch much TV haven't seen the ads claiming he's committed fraud. I didn't know until I did this project. SO that alone probably will not cause him to lose the election this year.

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One of Nelson's defining tactics in his campaign is that Paxton has been indicted for fraud. One would think this would be enough for people to want him out of office, right?
Well, no, not necessarily.

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-Paxton is winning in popularity polls across the state. He's ahead of Nelson by 5-10% in several polls which may seem close, but is still quite the gap. More interest groups are giving him money, as well, showing that citizens and business are leaning more toward him.
-Paxton is an incumbent meaning he's fighting to keep the position he already has. People generally don't like change and don't find the need to fix what isn't inherently broken. He's also Republican and Nelson is Democrat so the odds of Texas, a conservative state, kicking out their conservative attorney general and issuing in a Democrat to take his place is very unlikely.

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I believe Ken Paxton will win this midterm election for the Texas Attorney General.

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One of Ken Paxton’s main issues is human sex trafficking, which he hasworked  to get rid of in Texas throughout his last term, which falls in line with both parties. Justin Nelson doesn’t focus too much on this issue, which isn’t really the focus of either party.

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Ken Paxton is against illegal immigration, which falls in line with the Republican Party. Justin Nelson is, as Ken Paxton claims, “soft on illegal immigration” which falls in line with the Democratic Party.

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Ken Paxton has been indicted with fraud and could face years of jail time. Justin Nelson is making this the focus of his debate with Paxton. Neither Democrats nor Republicans support fraud indictment so Justin Nelson is falling in line with his party. Ken Paxton is just going against the law.

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Endorsement matters because it shows voters who support different candidates. For example, when President Trump endorses Ted Cruz, that makes him look good to people who agree with and support President Trump.

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-Ken Paxton’s fraud indictment
-Illegal Immigration
-Trafficking

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*Editor's note: This story has been updated to reflect a statement from Justin Nelson's campaign.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has started airing a statewide TV ad against his Democratic challenger, Justin Nelson, as Nelson presses to close the race with an emphasis on the indictment that has dogged the Republican incumbent for most of his first term.

Since last week, Nelson, an Austin lawyer, has been airing a TV commercial highlighting Paxton's 2015 indictment on securities fraud charges, asking, "If Ken Paxton can't follow the law, how can he enforce it?" Nelson has also put up billboards across the state plastered with Paxton's mugshot.

In the new spot from Paxton, a narrator asserts Nelson is "running a negative campaign to hide his extreme liberal agenda," portraying the Democrat as soft on illegal immigration. The half-minute commercial then contrasts Nelson with Paxton, who the narrator says "shut down the world's largest human trafficking marketplace" - a reference to the attorney general's role in shuttering the Dallas-based sex ads website Backpage.com.

The ad was seen airing this morning in major markets throughout the state, including Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio.

The anti-Nelson ad is notable for a number of reasons. Beyond U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in his blockbuster battle with Democrat Beto O'Rourke, most of Texas' statewide officials have hardly acknowledged their Democratic opponents, let alone run TV ads against them. And Paxton has until now appeared to have kept his TV advertising positive, airing a spot touting his role in the Backpage.com investigation.

Months after taking office three years ago, Paxton was indicted by a Collin County grand jury on the criminal charges, which allege he misled investors in a company years earlier. Paxton pleaded not guilty to the charges and has since been cleared in a similar, civil case at the federal level. But he still awaits trial in the initial case, and it has loomed over his re-election campaign.

Nelson's campaign denounced the attack ad in a statement.

"If you Google 'desperate,' your results will look a lot like this ad," Nelson spokeswoman Margaret Justus said. "When you're indicted for fraud and facing a century behind bars, investigated for bribery and corruption and hiding from voters, what do you do? If you're Ken Paxton, you lie about your opponent. It's both predictable and pathetic."

(Last year, Kaufman County District Attorney Erleigh Wiley probed whether a gift Paxton had received for his legal defense constituted bribery. Wiley ultimately determined the donation was not bribery and closed the probe without bringing charges.)

Paxton's campaign did not immediately respond to messages seeking comment on the ad.

Read related Tribune coverage

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In notable shift, Attorney General Ken Paxton begins TV offensive against Democratic opponent

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Ken Paxton, the GOP attorney general, has begun running a TV ad against his Democratic opponent, Justin Nelson, who has been hammering Paxton over his 2015 indictment on securities fraud charges.

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-In-State | $2,189,610.60
-Out-Of-State | $479,824.89
--------------------------------
Top Industries:
-Uncoded | $1,530,832.74
-Candidate Contributions | $500,000.00
-Lawyers & Lobbyists | $490,083.13
--------------------------------
Top Sectors:
-Candidate Contributions | $504,300.00
-Lawyers & Lobbyists | $490,083.13
-Labor | $90,558.00

# data[].attributes.body
-In-State | $7,346,742.66
-Out-Of-State | $433,152.37
--------------------------------
Top Industries:
-Uncoded | $3,301,561.26
-Oil & Gas | $1,270,501.32
-Lawyers & Lobbyists | $508,762.02
--------------------------------
Top Sectors:

Energy & Natural Resources | $1,350,251.32
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate | $915,307.43
General Business | $666,350.00

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Ken Paxton: Trusted Leadership for a Safer Texas

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Source: Dixie Strategies Poll
Released: September 2018
SIze: statewide
Sample: 519
Error Margin: +/- 4.3%
Explanation: Paxton is 6% ahead of Nelson in popularity, 45-39 percent.

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Source: Texas Lyceum Poll
Released: August 2018
Size: statewide
Sample: 441 LV
Error Margin: +/- 3.45%
Explanation: Paxton is ahead of Nelson, 35-25 percent.

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Source: University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll
Size: statewide
Sample: 1200 RV
Released/Updated: October 2018
Error Margin: +/- 3.22%
Explanation: Paxton is ahead of Nelson in popularity by 8%,  48-36 percent.

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-MoveOn.org Political Action
-Planned Parenthood Texas Votes
-Sierra Club-Lone Star Chapter
-Texas AFL-CIO
-United Auto Workers

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Vote Smart provides free, unbiased, in-depth information about current officials, candidates, issues, legislation, and voting. Non-partisan and nonprofit since 1988.

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-Texas conservative leaders (such as Ann Hettinger)
-National conservative leaders (such as Dick Armey)
-Those who support Pro-Life and Family Values (such as Texas Right To Life)
-Those who support the Second Amendment (such as Gun Owners of America)
-Elected and State officials (such as Senator Charles Perry)
-Conservative and Grassroots organizations (such as FreedomWorks)
-Those who support Business and Medical (such as Texas Medical Association)
-Law Enforcement and First Responders (such as Dallas Police Association)
-Harris County Leadership endorsements (such as Al Hartman)
-Grassroots leaders and activists (such as Scott Franklin)
-Current and former SREC members (such as Stephen Lee)
-Over 220 Tyler/Smith County business and community leaders, Republican activists, and current and former elected officials
-Over 100 Tea Party leaders and activists across Texas

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Ken Paxton | Republican for Attorney General

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Endorsements | Ken Paxton | Republican for Attorney General

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Texas Conservative Leaders Ann Hettinger Carol Everett Cathie Adams Chad Hennings David Barton Dr. Steve Hotze JoAnn Flemming Jonathan Saenz Julie McCarty Kaye T. Goolsby Kelly Shackelford Norm and Jeanie Mason Peggy Venable Rick Green Tim Lambert Dave Welch Dr. and Mrs. Robert B. Sloan, Jr.

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Ken Paxton

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- Must be a citizen of the United States
-Must be a resident of the county in which the application for registration is made
-Must be at least 17 years and 10 months old (must be 18 to vote)
-Must not be convicted of felony, and if convicted, must have fully discharged punishment
-Must have not been declared mentally incompetent by final judgment of a court of law

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-Must have some form of ID with you to vote. If one doesn't have an ID, they need to sign a sworn statement and show a birth certificate, bank statement, etc. that is accepted by the government.

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Population: 26,956,435
Race:                             Age:
White: 43.4%                65+: 11.5%
Hispanic: 38.3%          40-64: 30.6%
Black: 11.9%                22-39: 25.6%
Asian: 4.4%                 18-21: 5.86%
Mixed: 1.6%                 0-17: 26.5%
Other: 0.4%

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-Uncontested in primary race for Democratic candidate
-First time running
-Lawyer
-Professor at UT Law School
Former law clerk to Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Conner
-Founder of the non-profit One Nation One Vote
-Native-born Texan

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The Choice is Clear

Hi, I'm Justin Nelson, the Democratic candidate for Texas Attorney General. I am a husband and father of three, a lawyer, a law professor, a former law clerk to Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, and a proud, native-born Texan.

I will fight for ALL Texans to stop corruption, fraud, and government waste, to safeguard consumer protections, and to ensure everyone is treated equally under the law.

Voting for the Texas Attorney General is deciding who we want to hire as the top lawyer for Texas. On November 6, choose the candidate who will uphold the rule of law and will fight against corruption. We need an Attorney General who will enforce the law, not break it. Vote for Justin Nelson.

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My Vision

From fighting corruption and gerrymandering to supporting healthcare and immigration, learn where Justin Nelson stands on the issues affecting the people of Texas.

Initiatives

Help us fight to keep healthcare for millions of Americans.
Our indicted Texas Attorney General is suing to strip away healthcare coverage from millions of Americans with preexisting conditions.
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Voters should pick their politicians, not the other way around.
"Walk the Lines" is our initiative to END partisan gerrymandering. Organize a walk, run, ride, or pub crawl along your district line today!
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Nelson for Texas - Justin Nelson for Texas Attorney General

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Join my campaign for Texas Attorney General and help me fight to ensure everyone is treated equally under the law. Donate, subscribe for updates, and follow me on the campaign trail.

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-Fighting Corruption by protecting and defending the Texas Ethics Commission
-Liberal views on Public education
-End Gerrymandering

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-Candidate for Texas Attorney General
-Democrat
-Running against an incumbent

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-Conservative views on abortion, gun rights, border security, and religious-based rights

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-Uncontested in primary race for Republican candidate
-Part of the House of Representatives from 2002-2010 (TX District 70)
-Part of the Senate from 2013-2015 (TX District 8
-Worked as part of the in-house counsel for J.C. Penney Company
-Headed his own law firm in McKinney, TX, for 14 yrs
-He is under indictment for 3 fraud-related felonies from private business dealings in 2011-2012

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-Current Texas Attorney General
-Republican
-Incumbent