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Sources for vulnerability of coast line :)

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Hey all I fixed my dot points.

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hey guys I fixed my part up(:

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updates poster
obviously if you want to make changes go ahead
only went for red because it stood out but we can change it if needed.

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I have literally no idea how to use this cite hahahaa so here is my document (':

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Hey these are the dots points for my part of the power point :)

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ok so I've put the info that I've gathered into my spot. its shifted around a little though when it uploaded - shaz :

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I assume you have done focused Google searches on keywords associated
with your topic - Queensland Cyclones Climate Change - and the like.

As you'd know, climate science isn't anywhere near precise enough to
predict that cyclones looming towards or hitting somewhere like
Queensland are caused by climate change - the fallacy of specific
causation - , not the least because the more local weather has a lot to
do with the behaviour of cyclones On the Days and During the Weeks, so
to speak. As you know, climate ain't the weather.

A reporter cannot stand in the middle of a flattened town like Cardwell
and say, "This was caused by climate change". Same with places in
Vanuatu flattened by Cyclone Pam and in Fiji flattened by Cyclone Winston.

BUT - if you tunnel into The Conversation and then follow Links off
that, where scientists have interrogated the data sets from events like
the recent heat waves, they have noted a Spike or an Anomaly which
amplified or made worse the intensity and damage of the cyclone, and
that's climate change Amplifying what are entirely natural phenomena
which have been occurring for millennia.

The IPCC suggests that while there might not be more tropical cyclones
they will probably be more intense, such as we saw with Pam and Winston
and perhaps Yasi too.

As developments occur, so does the vulnerability of infrastructure -
more targets for cyclones, flood, storm surges etc to wreck. Unless
people adapt.

What you're also looking at are specific issues of Adaptation and
Mitigation by local councils and the State and even Commonwealth
Governments steadily more deeply factoring in climate change projected
impacts into development planning, as well as insurance companies
similarly. The latter will almost certainly have a major impact 'cos if
they won't ensure infrastructure or private dwellings because of climate
change risks, they won't be built, probably.

More cyclone resilient buildings and infrastructures, evacuation plans
for coastal and riverine areas and towns, refusing development approvals
for vulnerable locations (no more canal estates), protection for buffer
zones like mangroves and reefs... Changing agricultural practices and
crops grown to take account of more heat waves, deeper droughts, deeper
El Nino and La Nina cycles...

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Cardwell Inundation Study. Community Vulnerability at page 43.

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http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/oceans-and-cryosphere.shtml

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What are the driving mechanisims that are influencing cyclone activity in queensland and how is that impacting the vulnerability of the costal population and urban development?

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State of the environment report- Guardian story- minster for the environment

BOM csiro, report on australian climate 2016

Senator malcolm roberts

heritage foundation

George Christiansen

Denial and commercial greed, capitalism

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http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/intensity.shtml

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012%3C0595%3AOIOCAT%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Identification by looking at:
Spatial smoothing
Location of cyclonic vorticity maxima
Sensitivity to smoothing strategy

Tracking:

Tracking of centers enables cyclone motion and intensification rates to be identified and allows consideration of cyclone life cycles, as in SI95. It also enables a database of cyclone tracks to be constructed from which examples can be readily selected for further analysis, such as for case or composite studies, as outlined in section 4 below. Tracking uses an algorithm first developed by Murray and Simmonds (1991a) and modified by SI94. For each center, a prediction of the location, pressure, and vorticity at the next track position is made from past motion, pressure, and vorticity tendency. To start a track, these predictions are based on climatology. Next, a match is attempted between each of these predictions and the set of nearby centers found at the next analysis time (12 h later for ECMWF). The ensemble of successful matches chosen is the one that minimizes a weighted sum of absolute departures of position, pressure, and vorticity from the predicted values. For more details, see Murray and Simmonds (1991a) and SI94.

General picture of cyclones in Southern Hemisphere:
SH cyclones are more evenly distributed around the hemisphere. They tend to form and intensify in middle latitudes, especially near SST gradients over open oceans, and near the eastern coasts of South America and Australia, and decay at higher latitudes. There is some evidence that newly formed and intensifying cyclones in both hemispheres possess a tighter inner structure than mature and decaying systems.

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sea temperatures affecting cyclone frequency 

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sea temperatures affecting cyclone frequency 

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-The study finds that warmer ocean temperatures, caused by climate change, may be fueling stronger hurricanes, while at the same time, creating fewer storms

-While that includes a moist and unstable atmosphere, as well as weak vertical wind shear, ocean temperatures are also very important. Sea-surface temperatures need to be warm -- usually greater than 80 degrees -- therefore, those warmer oceans would allow for stronger hurricanes and typhoons.

Earth's temperatures have met three major milestones recently, setting the set the stage for warmer conditions:

Earth's temperature has warmed 1.53 degrees Fahrenheit from 1880 to 2012, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

NOAA said average sea-surface temperature across the globe in 2014 was 1.03 degrees above the average during the 20th century -- the highest on record with records dating back to 1880.

2014 was the warmest year across the globe for land and sea surface temperatures in 134 years of records.

https://weather.com/science/environment/news/climate-change-study-changing-intensity-number-hurricanes

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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-02-02/australias-worst-cyclones/1926526

Cyclone Yasi (2011)

Category five Cyclone Yasi crossed the far north Queensland coast near Mission Beach early on February 3, 2011, bringing peak wind gusts estimated at 285 kilometres per hour. The massive storm destroyed homes, shredded crops and smashed marinas and island resorts as it roared ashore. Because it was such a large, strong storm, Yasi maintained considerable intensity as it tracked inland, finally weakening to a tropical low near Mount Isa more than 20 hours after it crossed the coast. The damage bill exceeded $800 million.

Cyclone Larry (2006)

Larry crossed the north Queensland coast near Innisfail as a category four system on March 20. The cyclone was considered the worst to hit Queensland in more than 70 years and damaged 10,000 homes in the region and hit farmers hard. The federal government put the damage bill at $1.5 billion. No lives were lost and no serious injuries were reported.

Cyclone Monica (2006)

Monica was the 17th and last cyclone of the 2005-06 season and terrorised Australia's north for more than a fortnight after starting life off the south-eastern tip of PNG. Monica crossed the Queensland coast near Lockhart River as a category three on April 19. The cyclone was a category one when it entered the Gulf of Carpentaria but strengthened into an intense category five system before it crossed near Maningrida in the Northern Territory on April 24. Despite Monica's intensity, it caused no serious injuries and did relatively little damage to infrastructure. But the uninhabited coastal crossing point in the NT suffered severe vegetation damage, with 50 to 70 per cent of all trees felled, as well as evidence of a five to six-metre storm surge zone in Junction Bay.

Cyclone Ita (2014)

Cyclone Ita was a category five system but weakened to a category four in the hours before it crossed the North Queensland coast near Cape Flattery on April 12, 2014. It was the strongest cyclone to impact Queensland since Cyclone Yasi three years earlier. Cooktown received the most damage, with 16 buildings destroyed or severely damaged and 200 receiving mostly minor damage. As the storm moved further south, flooding developed which cut access to communities including Ingham.

Cyclone Marcia (2015)

Marcia, a category five cyclone, crossed the Queensland coast near Shoalwater Bay on February 20, 2015. It caused an estimated $750 million in damage and left more than 60,000 homes without power in Yeppoon, Rockhampton and Bundaberg as it moved south and eventually out to sea.

Information sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology. Damage estimates are quoted in the dollar values of the time.

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http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/eastern.shtml#history

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CategoryStrongest gust (km/h)Typical effects 1 Tropical Cyclone  | Less than 125 km/h
Gales | Minimal house damage. Damage to some crops, trees and caravans.Boats may drag moorings.
2 Tropical Cyclone | 125 - 164 km/h
Destructive winds  | Minor house damage. Significant damage to signs, trees and caravans. Heavy damage to some crops. Risk of power failure. Small boats may break moorings.
3 Severe Tropical Cyclone | 165 - 224 km/h
Very destructive winds  | Some roof and structural damage. Some caravans destroyed. Power failure likely.
4 Severe Tropical Cyclone | 225 - 279 km/h
Very destructive winds  | Significant roofing and structural damage. Many caravans destroyed and blown away. Dangerous airborne debris. Widespread power failures.
5 Severe Tropical Cyclone | More than 280 km/h
Extremely destructive winds  | Extremely dangerous with widespread destruction.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/

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Storm surge and tides

Potentially, the most destructive phenomenon associated with tropical cyclones that make landfall is the storm surge. Storm surge is a raised dome of water about 60 to 80 km across and typically about 2 to 5 m higher than the normal tide level. If the surge occurs at the same time as a high tide then the area inundated can be quite extensive, particularly along low-lying coastlines.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/

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The Beaufort Scale - how tropical cyclones are measured

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The Beaufort Scale - how tropical cyclones are measured

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Australian region tropical cyclone warnings, forecasts, seasonal outlooks, cyclone history, climatology and related information

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Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia

15 February to 21 February 2015
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/marcia.shtml

Summary

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia crossed the coast at Shoalwater Bay (north northwest of Yeppoon) during the morning of 20th February 2015. Marcia crossed the coast at category 5 intensity in a largely uninhabited area, although significant damage was recorded at Yeppoon and Rockhampton as the system weakened after making landfall.

The tropical low that eventually became severe tropical cyclone Marcia was first identified in the Coral Sea on Sunday, February 15th 2015. Marcia was tracked over the next few days as it drifted eastward with little change in intensity (Figure 1).

During the afternoon of Wednesday February 18th, the low pressure system reached tropical cyclone intensity and was named Marcia, before beginning to move towards the southwest. Tropical cyclone Marciacontinued to intensify during February 18th and was estimated to have reached category 2 intensity by that evening.

Thursday February 19th, saw tropical cyclone Marcia continue on a south-westerly track and undergo a period of extremely rapid intensification, increasing by two categories to a category 4 severe tropical cyclone in approximately 12 hours. This increase in intensity is well above the average rate of intensification for tropical cyclones anywhere in the world.

Late on February 19th, Marcia made a sharp turn towards the south and intensified even further, and was estimated to have reached category 5 intensity at 4am on Friday 20th February (Figure 2.)

Prior to landfall in the early hours of February 20th, the automatic weather station on Middle Percy Island recorded a maximum sustained (10 minute average) wind speed of 84 knots (156 km/h) and a maximum wind gust of 112 knots (208 km/h), or the equivalent of a strong category 3 system. This weather station was located to the west of tropical cyclone Marcia's core and would not have experienced the cyclone's maximum winds in its eye-wall. At that time, intensity estimates inferred from satellite imagery indicated Marcia was a category 5 system at its core. High resolution radar imagery (Figure 3) shows that Middle Percy Island was located just outside the eye wall of Marcia (represented by the strong reflectivity returns near the centre of the system).

Figure 1: Track of severe tropical cyclone Marcia, showing estimated areas affected by winds associated with categories of cyclone intensity.

Map Legend:

>= Category 3 Winds

Category 2 Winds

Category 1 Winds

Figure 2: Zoomed in track of severe tropical cyclone Marcia, showing estimated areas affected by winds associated with categories of cyclone intensity.

Map Legend:

>= Category 3 Winds

Category 2 Winds

Category 1 Winds

Figure 3: RADAR reflectivity (dBZ) image at 4:30am AEST on February 20th 2015, showing the eye of severe tropical cyclone Marcia moving in a southerly direction and passing to the east of the Middle Percy Island automatic weather station. Wind barb symbol indicates sustained winds in excess of 80knots (148km/h) from the southwest.

Based on all the evidence collected and detailed reanalysis of satellite imagery, severe tropical cyclone Marcia crossed the coast at Shoalwater Bay (north northwest of Yeppoon) as a category 5 system at around 8am AEST on February 20th. Severe tropical cyclone Marcia was a relatively compact system compared to other severe tropical cyclones such as severe tropical cyclone Yasi and weakened quickly as it moved over land during the day. It is believed that only a small part of the coastline within about 15km of the cyclone centre would have experienced category 5 strength winds.

As Marcia moved over land, the township of Byfield sustained major damage as did the surrounding pine forest plantations. Yeppoon also received significant damage with the automatic weather station recording a maximum sustained wind speed (10 minute average) of 65 knots (120 km/h), or the equivalent of a category 3 system, as the category 4 centre of Marcia passed to the west.

The eye of Marcia passed over the city of Rockhampton where a maximum wind speed (10 minute average) of 40 knots (75 km/h) was recorded at the automatic weather station at Rockhampton Airport. Analysis of radar imagery indicated that the strongest part of the eye wall missed the automatic weather station and it is concluded that parts of Rockhampton experienced winds of high-end category 2 strength.

Marcia then turned to the south-southeast and impacted the town of Biloela early that evening, where wind gusts to 85 km/h were recorded.

Marcia was downgraded to a tropical low at 2 am Saturday 21 February, located to the south of Monto. The low tracked further southeast during 21 February and crossed the Sunshine Coast back out to sea at 3 pm 21 February.

Wind Damage

The area of Shoalwater Bay, where Marcia made landfall, had widespread areas of uprooted trees and evidence of storm surges and beach erosion, particularly along the coast north of Yeppoon. The Shoalwater Bay Training Area (SWBTA) is used for military training exercises by the Australian Defence Force and as a result is largely uninhabited with limited buildings. The eye of Marcia passed directly over Townshend Island (Figure 2) within the SWBTA and experienced the full force of winds when at category 5 intensity. Aerial photography taken very soon after the passage of Marcia shows almost complete defoliation of trees on Townshend Island (Figure 4). Access to the area is restricted but permission was granted to a team of Bureau of Meteorology and Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation (DSITI) staff on the 8-9 March 2015. The coastline of Pearl Bay (Figure 2 and Figure 5) clearly shows extensive tree defoliation and soil erosion as it experienced the outer edge of the very destructive wind core generated by Marcia at its maximum intensity just before landfall.

Figure 4: The eye of severe tropical cyclone Marcia passed directly over Townshend Island while at category 5 intensity. (Source: J. Bowman)

Figure 5: Extensive defoliation and soil erosion at Pearl Bay due to severe tropical cyclone Marcia. Photo taken on March 9th 2015. (Source: Bureau of Meteorology and Queensland Government Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation(DSITI)). Transport provided by Queensland Department of National Parks, Sport and Racing.

Figure 6: Sandy Creek Road, Byfield before (upper photo) and following (lower photo) severe tropical cyclone Marcia, February 2015 showing widespread tree damage. (Source: Fugro ROAMES)

There was structural damage to houses, uprooted trees, downed power lines and evidence of storm surge elsewhere in parts of the Capricornia district, including (but not limited to) the towns of Byfield (Figure 6), Yeppoon (Figure 7 and 8) and Rockhampton.

Figure 7: Image of roof damage in Yeppoon from severe tropical cyclone Marcia. (Source: 7 News Brisbane)

Figure 8: Image of significant structural damage in Yeppoon from severe tropical cyclone Marcia. (Source: ABC News)

Storm Tides and Waves

A large storm surge was recorded across the Capricorn coastline, with significant beach erosion and structural damage impacting Great Keppel Island in particular (Figure 9). Fortunately, the storm surge from Marcia along the coast near and to the south of Yeppoon coincided with a falling tide and did not produce significant inundation or damage. The DSITI storm tide gauge at Rosslyn Bay recorded a storm surge of 0.6m producing a storm tide height of only 0.06m above highest astronomical tide (HAT) (Figure 10). There was however evidence of significant erosion and large deposits of pumice stone indicative of much higher water levels being reached on beaches to the north of Yeppoon between One Mile Beach and Farnborough Beach, and particularly at 9 Mile Beach.

The DSITI storm tide gauge at Port Alma observed a storm surge of 2.0 metres (Figure 11) while the wave rider buoy at Emu Park registered a significant wave height of 4.1m and peak height of 7.0 metres with waves coming from the northeast and a peak period of 9 to 10 seconds (Figure 12). The storm tide gauge at Port Alma almost recorded water levels close to but not exceeding HAT as the surge coincided with low tide. It is believed that the storm surge at Port Alma is likely to have been enhanced by the shape of the coastline relative to the track of the cyclone.

For further detail see the DSITI Coastal Impacts Unit fact sheet 'Severe tropical cyclone Marcia: storm tide and wave monitoring data'.

Figure 9: Great Keppel Island holiday cabins toppled onto the beach from severe tropical cyclone Marcia. (Source: ABC News)

Figure 10: Sea level measurements from the Qld State Government (DSITI) storm tide gauge at Rosslyn Bay. (Source: DSITI Coastal Impacts Unit fact sheet 'Severe tropical cyclone Marcia : storm tide and wave monitoring data')

Figure 11: Sea level measurements from the Qld State Government (DSITI) storm tide gauge at Port Alma. (Source: http://www.qld.gov.au/tides)

Figure 12: Significant wave height and direction measurements from the Qld State Government (DSITI) wave rider buoy at Emu Park. (Source: www.qld.gov.au/waves)

Rainfall and Flooding

Heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclone Marcia affected catchments extending from the far eastern parts of Fitzroy River catchment south to the Queensland - New South Wales border. The heaviest rainfall was recorded over the Don and Dee Rivers and Callide Creek in the Fitzroy River catchment area, where up to 300 mm of rainfall was recorded in 6-8 hours during the afternoon and evening of 20 February as tropical cyclone Marcia tracked through the region.

Flooding above the major flood level occurred in the following basins:

Don and Dee Rivers and Callide Creek in the Fitzroy River catchment

Burnett River and Three Moon Creek in the Burnett River catchment

Mary River, Six Mile Creek and Tinana Creek in the Mary River catchment

For more information on the flooding that was produced by severe tropical cyclone Marcia see here.

Coastal Crossing Details

Crossing time:

8am EST Friday 20th February, 2015

Crossing location:

Shoalwater Bay, 90km north northwest of Yeppoon

Category when crossing the coast:

5

Extreme Values During Cyclone Event (estimated)

Maximum Category:

5

Maximum sustained wind speed:

205 km/h

Maximum wind gust:

295 km/h

Lowest central pressure:

930 hPa

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"The Far North Queensland coast was declared a natural disaster zone after the severe impact of tropical Cyclone Larry on 20 March 2006. The category five cyclone registered winds of up to 290 km/h. Major damage was caused to homes, other buildings and agricultural crops, but no loss of life occurred. $A1.5 billion was the estimated total damage bill for the affected regions."
http://www.australia.gov.au/about-australia/australian-story/natural-disasters

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Tropical cyclone Larry 2006, compared to 1971, it dates back but source is reliable and has a lot of info about how Larry affected Queenslands coast.