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The Global Climate Dashboard helps tracking climate change and natural variability over time.

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gov Science & information for a climate-smart nation

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gov Science & information for a climate-smart nation

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This story map provides examples and practical examples for policy makers on how the climate change indicators outlined in the IPCC reports played out during the recent years. The story map also shows the risks and impacts of extreme events including displacement and the main climate-driven events that cause displacement.

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The global climate system is complex. In order to unpack such complexity, the WMO State of the Global Climate uses seven Climate Indicators to describe the changing climate—providing a broad view of the climate at a global scale. They are used to monitor the domains most relevant to climate change,…

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UNHCR - Key Concepts on Climate Change and Disaster Displacement

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UNHCR - Key Concepts on Climate Change and Disaster Displacement

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United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

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Key Concepts on Climate Change and Disaster Displacement

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Swipe through satellite images to see the effect of climate change: namely, droughts, vanishing of lakes, melting of glaciers, floods, effects of disasters on cities, ice breakups, disappearing farmlands, etc..

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Severe Monsoon Rains Cause Catastrophic Flooding in Pakistan

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These images show the south-central part of Pakistan before and after extreme monsoon rains triggered widespread flooding in August. Described as an "unprecedented climate catastrophe" by the United Nations, the floods follow a period in March and April of intense heat and drought in the country.

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UNHCR Watchlist: Climate Change and Displacement

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UNHCR Watchlist: Climate Change and Displacement

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A series of UNHCR videos (1-3 min long) showing natural hazards & climate change impact on local populations across the world, case by case, e.g.:

Climate change and gang violence in Honduras

South Sudan floods wreak havoc on vulnerable communities

#ClimateChange Leaves Ethiopian Refugees Vulnerable

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Beating the Heat: The Climate Crisis is a Human Crisis #COP26

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World Bank Group - Glossary of Terms and Definitions on Climate

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World Bank Group - Glossary of Terms and Definitions on Climate

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Interactive portal where you explore climate data, risks, and impacts for each country. Follow “Explore by country” and click on a country.

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World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal

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The Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) provides global data on historical and future climate, vulnerabilities, and impacts. Explore them via Country and Watershed views. Access synthesized Country Profiles to gain deeper insights into climate risks and adaptation actions.

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Climate Central - Coastal Risk Screening Tool

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Climate Central - Coastal Risk Screening Tool

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A visual explainer of coastal / land submergence at different sea level rises, supplemented with brief explainers.

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Sea level rise and coastal flood risk maps -- a global screening tool by Climate Central

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Interactive global map showing areas threatened by sea level rise and coastal flooding.

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CarbonBrief - Mapped Extreme Weather Events 

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CarbonBrief - Mapped Extreme Weather Events 

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Map of the world showing all the extreme event that are related to climate change that have happened : every year alone since 2011 and pre-2011.

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ATTRIBUTION | August 4. 2022. 16:30

In the early 2000s, a new field of climate-science research emerged that began to explore the human fingerprint on extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms.

Known as "extreme event attribution", the field has gained momentum, not only in the science world, but also in the media and public imagination. These studies have the power to link the seemingly abstract concept of climate change with personal and tangible experiences of the weather.

Scientists have published more than 400 peer-reviewed studies looking at weather extremes around the world, from wildfires in the US and heatwaves in India and Pakistan to typhoons in Asia and record-breaking rainfall in the UK. The result is mounting evidence that human activity is raising the risk of some types of extreme weather, especially those linked to heat.

To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped - to the best of our knowledge - every extreme-weather attribution study published to date.

Carbon Brief's analysis reveals:

71% of the 504 extreme weather events and trends included in the map were found to be made more likely or more severe by human-caused climate change.

9% of events or trends were made less likely or less severe by climate change, meaning 80% of all events experienced some human impact. The remaining 20% of events and trends showed no discernible human influence or were inconclusive.

Of the 152 extreme heat events that have been assessed by scientists, 93% found that climate change made the event or trend more likely or more severe.

For the 126 rainfall or flooding events studied, 56% found human activity had made the event more likely or more severe. For the 81 drought events studied, it's 68%.

First published in July 2017, this article is the fifth annual update (see endnote) to incorporate new studies. The aim is that it serves as a tracker for the evolving field of "extreme event attribution".

Using the map

The map above shows 504 extreme weather events and trends across the globe for which scientists have carried out attribution studies. The different symbols show the type of extreme weather; for example, a heatwave, flood or drought. The colours indicate whether the attribution study found a link to human-caused climate change (red), no link (blue) or was inconclusive (grey).

How to use our map of attribution studies.

Use the plus and minus buttons in the top-left corner, or double click anywhere, to zoom in on any part of the world. Click on a symbol to reveal more information, including a quote from the original paper to summarise the findings and a link to the online version.

The filter on the left allows users to select a specific type of weather event to look at or, for example, only those found to be influenced by climate change.

The filter can also be used to highlight extreme events from a particular year. (Note: earlier versions of this map classified events by the year that the study or analysis was published.) To isolate studies that assess the changing trends of weather extremes, click the "trend" box in the filter.

The software used to make the map currently only works with a Web Mercator projection (as used by virtually all major online map providers). It is worth noting that this - like all map projections - offers a somewhat distorted view of the world.

It is important to note that the weather events scientists have studied so far are not randomly chosen. They can be high-profile events, such as Hurricane Harvey, or simply the events that occurred nearest to scientific research centres. (More on this below.)

The map includes three different types of studies. The circles and hexagons on the map indicate papers published in peer-reviewed journals. The different shapes refer to whether the study considers an individual extreme event (circles), such as a wildfire or storm, or whether it analyses longer-term trends in extreme weather (hexagons), such as the change in frequency of flooding or marine heatwaves over time.

The third shape - triangles - indicate rapid attribution studies. These are quickfire assessments of the climate change contribution to extreme weather events, published online shortly after an event concludes. (More on this below.)

Finally, it is worth noting that some of the icon locations are approximate - particularly for studies that cover large regions. For example, global studies can be found grouped together in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

Extreme weather types

The events and trends shown on the map are covered by 431 individual scientific papers or rapid studies. Where a single study covers multiple events or locations, these have been separated out into individual entries on the map.

Combining the evidence over the past 20 years, the literature is heavily dominated by studies of extreme heat (30%), rainfall or flooding (25%) and drought (16%). Together, these make up more than two-thirds of all published studies (71%). The full list is available in this Google sheet.

As the chart below shows, the number of extreme events studied has grown substantially over the past 10-15 years. Note that formal studies typically follow a year or so after the event itself as the writing and peer-review process for journal papers can take many months.

The majority of studies included here have been published in the annual "Explaining extreme events" special issues of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ( BAMS). Each bumper volume typically contains around 15-30 peer-reviewed studies of events from the previous year. Other studies have been found through the Climate Signals database and online searches through journals. This update includes studies published up to the end of May 2022.

(Note: The map currently only includes studies published in English.)

Specific types of event can be displayed in the chart below by clicking on the category names at the top.

Number of attribution studies by extreme weather event type and year. Note: the total number of events dipped in 2017 because the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society special report for that year was published in early 2018 rather than late 2017. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.

Most of the categories of extreme weather are self-explanatory, but "storms" and "oceans" require a bit of explanation.

For this latest iteration of the map, a new category of "compound" extreme events has also been added. This includes, for example, a 2021 study that found climate change had contributed to the "high likelihood" of combined dry and hot events in recent decades over most of China.

A man wades through a flooded road in Madagascar, after tropical cyclone Batsirai, Feb 2022. Credit: Xinhua / Alamy Stock Photo.

Such studies show that attribution studies are increasingly considering the impacts of extremes, rather than focusing purely on the weather event.

This shift towards impacts "is quite significant", says Prof Peter Stott, who leads the climate monitoring and attribution team at the Met Office Hadley Centre and has been a co-editor of the BAMS reports since they began in 2012. He tells Carbon Brief:

"Impacts are hard to do because you have to establish a significant link between the meteorology and the impact in question. As editors, we've been trying to encourage more studies on impacts because it's the impacts rather than the meteorology per se that tends to motivate these types of study - and if we only have the attribution on the meteorological event then we only have an indirect link to the relevant impact."

Attribution of climate impacts could even be used in the courts, one 2021 study explained. The authors wrote a Carbon Brief guest post explaining how attribution science can be "translated into legal causality". They wrote:

"Attribution can bridge the gap identified by judges between a general understanding that human-induced climate change has many negative impacts and providing concrete evidence of the role of climate change at a specific location for a specific extreme event that already has led or will lead to damages."

Human influence on extreme weather

Of the attribution studies included here, scientists found that human-caused climate change has altered the likelihood or severity of an extreme weather event in 80% of cases studied (71% made more severe or likely and 9% made less so).

In Carbon Brief's first edition of this analysis in 2017, 68% of events were found to have a human impact (with 63% made more severe or likely and 6% less so).

While these figures are not representative of all extreme weather events - attribution studies have only been conducted on a relatively small number - previous research has taken this broader view. For example, a 2015 study estimated the fraction of all globally occurring heat and heavy rainfall extremes that was attributable to warming. The authors found that around 75% of "moderate daily hot extremes over land" and 18% of "moderate daily precipitation extremes over land" were attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times. These fractions are expected to increase with further warming, the authors noted.

Note that events are classified here as having an human impact if climate change is found to have influenced at least one aspect of that event. For example, a study of the 2011 East Africa drought found that climate change contributed to the failure of the "long rains" in early 2011, but that the lack of "short rains" in late 2010 was down to the climate phenomenon La Niña. This event is, thus, designated as having a human impact.

For the majority of events affected by climate change, the balance has shifted in the same direction. That is, rising temperatures made the event in question more severe or more likely to occur. These events are represented by the red in the chart below. Clicking on the red "slice" reveals that heatwaves account for 40% of such events, rainfall or flooding for 20%, and droughts for 15%. Return to the original chart, and do the same with the other slices to see the proportion of different weather types in each category.

Pie chart showing the proportion of extreme events/studies that were found to have been made more likely/severe by climate change (red segment), less likely/severe (orange), had no link identified (blue) and were inconclusive or lacked sufficient data (grey). Clicking on a segment reveals the makeup of different types of extremes within that category. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.

In 11% of extreme weather events and trends studied, scientists found no discernible influence from human activity. These are coloured blue in the map and the chart above. For a further 9%, the observational data or modelling techniques used in the study were insufficient to reach a reliable conclusion (shown as grey in the map and pie chart).

In 9% of studied weather events and trends, scientists found climate change had made the event less likely or less severe (pale orange in the chart above).

Interestingly, a 2020 study analysed the way links between climate change and the California drought were portrayed in US media. It finds that the links were "covered widely in both local and national news", but notes:

"However, legitimate differences in the methods underpinning the attribution studies performed by different researchers often resulted in a frame of scientific uncertainty or disagreement in the media coverage."

As the case of California's drought shows, it is often necessary to dig deeper to understand the full picture. The rest of this article looks at the evidence for the three most-studied types of extreme weather - heatwaves, heavy rain and floods, and droughts - as well as some of the main issues in event attribution, and where the field as a whole is heading.

Heatwaves

The attribution map includes studies of 152 extreme heat events, of which 142 (93%) have been made more likely or more severe because of climate change. No studies have found a heatwave that has been made less severe by climate change, while studies of two events (1%) identified no influence and a further eight (5%) were inconclusive.

A volunteer pours water on a pedestrian during a heatwave in southern Pakistan, May 2022. Credit: Xinhua / Alamy Stock Photo.

The studies on extreme heat that did not find a role for climate change were an analysis of the Russian heatwave in 2010 and a rapid attribution study of the all-time high temperatures recorded in Rajasthan, India in May 2016. For the latter, the authors suggested that "the lack of a detectable trend may be due to the masking effect of aerosols on global warming and increased use of irrigation".

A particularly well-studied region for heatwaves in the literature is Australia, which accounts for 10% of the heat-related events included here. And climate change was found to play a role in all but one of the 15 Australian heat events studied. It is worth noting for that one event, however, that although the study (pdf, p145) was inconclusive for the city of Melbourne in south-east Australia, the authors did detect a human influence on extreme heat up the coast in Adelaide.

This raises a few important points. First, finding that climate change contributed to an event is not the same as saying it "caused" that event. Attribution is about working out if the likelihood or magnitude of a particular event happening now is different from what it would be in a world that was not warming.

A useful analogy - as explained in the first BAMS report in 2012 - is of a baseball player who starts taking steroids. If the player begins hitting 20% more home runs than before, it would not be possible to say for sure whether a particular home run is because of the steroids or the player's spontaneous skill. But it is possible to say how the steroids have altered the likelihood that the player hits a home run, by comparing their current and historical performances. As the report put it:

"Given that steroids have resulted in a 20% increased chance that any particular swing of the player's bat results in a home run, you would be able to make an attribution statement that, all other things being equal, steroid use had increased the probability of that particular occurrence by 20%."

Another important point is that in cases where attribution science finds that climate change is making a given type of extreme weather more likely, it does not necessarily follow that the chance of experiencing that kind of weather gets incrementally higher each year. Natural variability means that there will still be ups and downs in the strength and frequency of extreme events.

Finally, there is usually a level of confidence attached to attribution results. So, while two studies might both find a role for human influence in a given weather event, the signal may be stronger for one than the other. For the purposes of this analysis, the attribution map does not distinguish between high- and low-confidence results, but users can click through to each study for more details.

Heavy rain and flooding

Of the 126 rainfall or flooding events included in the attribution map, 71 (56%) found human activity had made the event more likely or more severe - a far smaller proportion than for heat-related studies. Nineteen studies (15%) found that climate change had made the whole event less likely to occur. Of the remaining heavy rainfall events, studies of 24 (19%) found no evidence of a link to climate change, while 12 (10%) were inconclusive.

That there is a more divided set of results for extreme rainfall than for heatwaves could suggest several things. In some cases, limited data might make it difficult to detect a clear "signal" of climate change above the "noise" of weather considered normal for a particular region. In other cases, an inconclusive result could reflect the fact that rainfall or flooding events are inherently more complex than heatwaves, with many ways for natural variability to play a role. Human factors, such as land use and drainage, also play a part in whether heavy rain leads to flooding.

Volunteers help move sandbags to protect a home from rising flood waters near Ottawa Canada, during 2019 floods. Credit: Colin Clarke / Alamy Stock Photo.

Take the UK, for example. While one study found climate change had increased the risk of floods in England and Wales in Autumn 2000 by at least 20% (and even up to 90%), another found little influence on summer rainfall in 2012 (pdf, p36).

This raises another important point. When it comes to interpreting the results of event attribution studies, it matters what the question is. For example, a 2013 study asked whether recent wet summers in north-western Europe were a response to retreating Arctic sea ice (pdf, p32). The answer from the study was "no". But, as a foreword from that year's BAMs report explains:

"Given the numerous ways climate change could influence precipitation in this region, a 'no' result for the role of Arctic sea ice should not be interpreted as an absence of any role at all for climate change."

The paper notes that, in a chaotic weather system, the complex dynamics of the atmosphere mean the size and path of a storm or heavy rainfall event has a large element of chance. This can make it tricky to identify where climate change fits in, potentially underestimating its influence.

Therefore, rather than analysing the weather patterns that bring a storm to an area, the authors argue that scientists should be looking at how the impact of that storm has been boosted by temperature changes - known as "thermodynamic" effects. Higher temperatures mean warmer seas, higher sea levels and more moisture evaporating into the atmosphere. These are changes that scientists can be more confident in, the authors wrote, and so should be the focus for attribution studies - rather than looking at changes to circulation patterns in the atmosphere.

For example, the paper reexamines an earlier study (pdf, p15) that suggested climate change had reduced the chances of the five-day heavy rainfall event that hit north-east Colorado in September 2013. Trenberth and colleagues argue that while climate change might not have made the specific weather system that brought the rain more likely, it will have contributed to the sheer volume of moisture in the atmosphere.

Chart shows the number of studies for each type of extreme event that fall within each category of human influence: More severe/likely (red), less severe/likely (yellow), no influence (blue) and inconclusive (grey). Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.

While attribution studies of heatwaves are generally more straightforward than storms - as they focus on thermodynamic influences - the type of question they are asking is still important. The Russian heatwave in 2010 is a good example of this. One study looking at the severity of the event did not find a role for climate change. Yet another one, which did find an influence, looked at the likelihood of the event.

This apparent contradiction is tackled by a third study that reconciles the other two. It explains that "the same event can be both mostly internally-generated [i.e. by natural variability] in terms of magnitude and mostly externally-driven [i.e. by human-caused climate change] in terms of occurrence probability".

Otto, who is lead author of the third study, tells Carbon Brief:

"The studies, thus, only appear to be contradictory, but are, in fact, complementary."

It is also important to stress that the absence of evidence for a link to climate change is not the same as evidence of absence. In other words, it does not necessarily mean there was no human influence, just that a particular analysis did not find one. This is why a single study should never be considered the final word on how climate change influences a given type of extreme weather.

Drought

Of the 81 drought events and trends considered here, climate change was found to have increased the severity or likelihood of 55 (68%). Of the remainder, the likelihood or severity was reduced for one event (1%), while no discernible link with human activity was found for 15 (19%) and 10 (12%) were inconclusive.

This mixed bag of results reflects the inherent complexity of droughts. And, again, the specific question matters. Conclusions about the role of climate change in a specific drought could depend on whether a study looks at temperature, rainfall or soil moisture, for example.

As the 2015 BAMS report explains:

"Drought continues to be an event type where the results require significant context, and easy answers often remain elusive because of the many meteorological, hydrological, and societal drivers that combine to cause drought."

(For more on the different ways that droughts can be categorised, see this Carbon Brief guest post from 2018.)

Geographical reach

While much has been achieved in the field of extreme event attribution in a short space of time, scientists are constantly looking for ways to tailor their work to suit the people who might use it.

One major goal since the early days of the field has been to expand extreme event attribution to cover a larger and more diverse geographical area.

Where in the world scientists can carry out attribution studies - and for what kind of events - will always be limited by the quality and availability of observed data and appropriate models. The attribution map highlights, for example, that there are relatively few studies of extreme weather in Africa and South America.

In another example, scientists hoping to analyse Super Typhoon Mangkhut - which hit the Philippines in September 2018 - were unable to in part because of "very poor quality" observed data in publicly available datasets and a lack of models.

At the moment, there is also a heavy leaning towards weather events that are local to the modelling groups, or that have a particular scientific interest. Otto explains:

"For example, scientists often do attribution studies because an event occurs on their doorstep. The UK, California and Boulder [in Colorado] are, therefore, studied much more than other parts of the world, but that does not necessarily make them places particularly impacted by climate change."

This means that while the studies carried out so far are indicative of the role climate change is playing in extreme weather around the world, they should not be considered representative of all types of extreme weather everywhere, says Otto. She tells Carbon Brief:

"[The studies so far] are part of a picture, but we don't know what's on the missing puzzle pieces. And, crucially, we don't know how many pieces are missing."

For example, Otto recently penned a Carbon Brief guest post on how the lack of monitoring of heatwaves in Africa means they are a "forgotten impact" of climate change.

Real-time extreme weather attribution

As well as expanding the science to cover different types of weather and more of the world, scientists are getting faster at turning the handle on extreme event attribution studies - sometimes crunching the numbers just days after an event has occurred.

The rapid studies included here are all produced by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative, described earlier, or the UK Met Office.

An example of analysis performed by the latter includes their review of the UK's weather in 2020, which was published by Carbon Brief. This showed that climate change increased the likelihood of the UK's warm year by approximately a factor of 50.

While the WWA individual rapid assessments are not individually peer-reviewed, they are conducted using methods that have been through the peer-review process. As the 2014 BAMS report explains:

"Much like other routine analysis, such as an operational seasonal forecast, statements made about heat events using these methods do not necessarily need to go through the peer-reviewed literature to be considered credible."

By conducting the analysis in the immediate aftermath of a weather event, these rapid studies provide almost-real-time information on the influence of climate change, rather than having to wait many months for a formal study.

(In some cases, these rapid assessments are later published in peer-reviewed journals. In these instances, the formal study is included in the attribution map, rather than the initial analysis. In some cases, this means earlier rapid assessments are removed from the Carbon Brief map in order to add in the relevant peer-reviewed paper once it is published.)

The Trans Canada highway remains partially submerged by flood water after rainstorms lashed the western Canadian province of British Columbia in November 2021. Credit: Reuters / Alamy Stock Photo.

This collaboration between the UK Met Office, German weather service (DWD), Meteo France, Dutch weather service (KNMI) and the University of Oxford will "demonstrate how attribution of extreme weather events can be carried out operationally by national meteorological services", Prof Stott tells Carbon Brief:

"In this project we are developing and testing the protocols we will need to enable rapid and reliable assessments of the extent to which recent extreme weather events have been made more or less intense or more or less likely by climate change. We started at the beginning of the year and so far we have tested our procedures on an analysis of the 2018 heatwave in Europe."

The progress to date has "demonstrated the importance of international collaboration for developing new techniques and processes", says Stott. But "national meteorological services across Europe will continue to have a particular remit to deliver advice on weather and climate in their own countries", he adds:

"At the Met Office in the UK we are developing our operational attribution capability to help inform the public, policymakers and journalists about the extent to which damaging extreme weather events like the floods in Yorkshire [in 2019] have been affected by climate change."

An evolving science

As the science of extreme event attribution has matured and become more nuanced, so has the choice of terminology around extreme weather and climate change.

While some attest that all extreme weather must be affected by a world that is warming, this warrants some caution. As the first BAMS report in 2012 noted:

"While it has been argued that in the Anthropocene, all extreme weather or climate events that occur are altered by human influence on climate...this does not mean that climate change can be blamed for every extreme weather or climate event. After all, there has always been extreme weather."

But while it would be premature to suggest that any single study is the last word, it is clear that - in many cases - the science can do better than that. Similarly, scientific thinking has clearly moved on from the unsatisfactory statement that it is not possible to attribute any individual weather event to climate change. Indeed, as mentioned earlier, there have been some studies that have concluded that an event - or aspect of an event - would have been impossible without climate change.

Russian Federal Agency for Forestry works to put out a forest fire in Basly, Russia in August 2020. Credit: Reuters / Alamy Stock Photo.

Ultimately, there are no blanket rules in attribution. Scientists need to examine the circumstances of each individual weather event - or a longer pattern of events for trend studies. It is only by combining evidence from all around the world that they can begin to draw broader conclusions.

Attribution studies, therefore, rely heavily on the quality and availability of observational data and climate model simulations. In a short paper for the journal Weather, Dr Otto says that "the models used for attribution need to be able to reliably estimate the likelihoods of the types of events being attributed".

As discussed earlier, attribution studies of heatwaves tend to be more straightforward because of their focus on thermodynamic effects, rather than atmospheric circulation. Yet, Otto tells Carbon Brief that recent studies suggest models overestimate the year-to-year variability of heat extremes in some parts of the world, and thus underestimate the trend and the role of climate change.

In a rapid attribution study of the western Europe summer heatwave in 2019, for example, Otto and her colleagues found that, for the month of June, the models "show about 50% smaller trends than observations in this part of Europe and much higher year-to-year variability than the observations". Similarly, a study of the 2019-20 Australian bushfires noted that "models underestimate the observed trend in heat" and so the "real increase could be much higher".

These findings emphasise how important it is to analyse models and observations together, Otto says:

"This made me realise just how important attribution is for the scientific community - and everyone using climate science - at bringing observations and models together in a very concrete real-world test case.

Attribution can, therefore, be used to help scientists "identify where the models are doing well and for what they are not in a much more direct way than the classical skill assessment of climate projections does", adds Otto.

Forecasted attribution

One attempt to move attribution science forward was the very first "advance forecasted" attribution analysis, which quantified the impact of climate change on the size, rainfall, and intensity of Hurricane Florence before it made landfall in North Carolina in September 2018.

The analysis ran two sets of short-term forecasts for the hurricane: one as the climate is today and the other in a simulated world without human-caused climate change. The researchers concluded at the time:

"We find that rainfall will be significantly increased by over 50% in the heaviest precipitating parts of the storm. This increase is substantially larger than expected from thermodynamic considerations alone. We further find that the storm will remain at a high category on the Saffir-Simpson scale for a longer duration and that the storm is approximately 80km in diameter larger at landfall because of the human interference in the climate system."

The analysis received a mixed reaction. Prof Stott told Carbon Brief that it was "quite a cool idea", but would be dependent on being able to forecast such events reliably. Dr Kevin Trenberth, distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, described it as "a bit of a disaster". He told Carbon Brief that the quality of the forecast was questionable for the assessment:

"The forecasts made were not good: the intensity of the forecast storm at landfall was category 4 or 5 as I recall, instead of category 2. And so the statements made were based on quite flawed assumptions: namely, that they had a good forecast."

A key requirement for a reliable attribution study is for models to accurately replicate the extreme event, Trenberth added, but "obviously one can not assess the goodness of the forecast if one does this in advance".

Houses in North Carolina sit in floodwater caused by Hurricane Florence. Credit: Reuters / Alamy Stock Photo.

The authors subsequently published a paper in Science Advances that "reviews the forecasted attribution with the benefit of hindsight". The findings show that climate change increased rainfall amounts "associated with the forecasted storm's core" by around 5%, and contributed to Hurricane Florence being "about 9km larger in mean maximum diameter (or a 1.6% increase in storm area) due to climate change".

The authors acknowledged that the "quantitative aspects of our forecasted attribution statements fall outside broad confidence intervals of our hindcasted statements and are quite different from the hindcasted best estimates". In short, the results are quite a way off what they forecasted.

However, the authors also said they have identified what went wrong with their forecasted analysis. Problems with the way their "without climate change" model runs were set up created a larger contrast against their real-world simulations. The results thus suggested that climate change would have a bigger impact than it actually did.

Nonetheless, the study did identify a quantifiable impact of climate change on Hurricane Florence, adding to the evidence from studies by other author groups, the researchers concluded:

"As the climate continues to warm, it is expected that extreme tropical cyclone precipitation events and resulting inland flooding will become yet more frequent."

In addition, a 2021 study of the record Australian heat event of October 2015 noted the potential of their methods "to provide attribution statements for forecast events within an outlook period". This will "allow for informed messaging to be available as required when an extreme event occurs, which is of particular use to weather and climate services", the authors wrote.

On the topic of forecasts, a 2021 study showed how it was possible to use a weather forecast model for attribution. The researchers, who penned a Carbon Brief guest post about their work, tested their methods using the European heatwave of February 2019 - an event their model successfully predicted:

"We find that the direct impact of the extra carbon dioxide (CO2) that humans have pumped into the atmosphere made the event 42% more likely for the British Isles and at least 100% (two times) more likely for France."

Their work "so far represents just the first few steps towards an operational forecast-based attribution system", they noted.

Finally, as well as casting forwards, attribution can also look back in time. A 2020 study on the US " Dust Bowl " heat and drought events of the 1930s takes an unconventional approach of looking at how the past event "would behave" with present-day levels of greenhouse gases.

The researchers find that "the return period of a 1-in-100-year heatwave summer (as observed in 1936) would be reduced to about 1-in-40 years" in today's climate.

Carbon Brief will continue to add new extreme event attribution studies to the map and update the accompanying analysis every year. Please get in touch with any suggestions of attribution studies that could be included.

This is the fifth iteration of Carbon Brief's attribution map. This is the fourth iteration of Carbon Brief's attribution map. The first, second and third and fourth editions, published in July 2017, March 2019 and April 2020, respectively, are still available at the archived links included here.

Original interactive map by Rosamund Pearce for Carbon Brief. Revised and updated by Tom Prater and Joe Goodman.

Please note: International borders are determined by the mapping software, not Carbon Brief.

Update: This article was updated on 05/08/2022 to include a mention of a 2015 attribution study of all global heat and heavy rainfall extremes.

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Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world

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In the early 2000s, a new field of climate science research emerged that began to explore the human fingerprint on extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms.

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Migration Data Portal - Environmental Migration

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Migration Data Portal - Environmental Migration

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Database that provides key definitions according to NGOs and international organisations, recent trends, data sources, data strengths and limitations.

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Definition

Three key terms are important in the context of migration and environmental and climatic changes:

Environmental migrants are defined as "persons or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move within their country or abroad." (IOM, 2011: 33 in IOM, 2014:13).

Environmentally displaced person refers to "persons who are displaced within their country of habitual residence or who have crossed an international border and for whom environmental degradation, deterioration or destruction is a major cause of their displacement, although not necessarily the sole one" (IOM, 2011:34 in IOM, 2014:13). The term disaster displacement "refers to situations, where people are forced or obliged to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of disasters triggered by natural hazards. Such displacement may take the form of spontaneous flight or an evacuation ordered or enforced by authorities. Such displacement can occur within a country, or across international borders. " (The Nansen Protection Agenda, 2015)

Planned relocation refers to persons whose livelihoods have been re-built in another place (IOM, 2014a). Others have defined planned relocation as referring solely to the collective movement of a community, the "permanent (or long-term) movement of a community (or a significant part of it) from one location to another, in which important characteristics of the original community, including its social structures, legal and political systems, cultural characteristics and worldviews are retained: the community stays together at the destination in a social form that is similar to the community of origin" (Campbell, 2010:58-59).

Although the term "climate refugees" is often used in relation to forced migration in the context of climate and environmental change, this is not a legally valid term as the 1951 Refugee Convention does not recognize environmental factors as criteria to define a refugee.

Data sources

Comprehensive datasets on environmental migration or planned relocation do not yet exist at the global level, but several initiatives have started to collect information across several countries. The following list provides an overview of the existing available information, including more qualitative research.
Primary data collection:
National authorities collect information on displacement and evacuations linked to disasters, in particular fast onset ones. Local-level disaster displacement data are available from (international and national) humanitarian agencies (NGOs, UN agencies) engaged in relief operations, which collect data in order to respond to the needs of affected populations.

Administrative data sources, such as the numbers of humanitarian visas (such as in the US, Brazil, Ecuador or Mexico) or residence permits granted (for instance, by Argentina) linked to disasters, can provide information on cross-border displacement and movements in the context of environmental events more generally.

IOM's Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) is a system used to track and monitor disaster displacement and population mobility. Data are regularly captured, processed and disseminated to provide a better understanding of the movements and evolving needs of displaced populations and migrants, whether in situ or en route, before, during and in the aftermath of disasters. The data are presented in the DTM Data Portal.

Innovative data sources include mobile phone-based sources such as call detail records (CDRs). Big data generated by mobile phone users before and after disasters, such as the 2010 earthquake in Haiti ( Bengtsson et al., 2011) and several typhoons in the Philippines and Bangladesh ( Lu et al., 2016), can indicate where displaced persons moved to and help deliver prompt and targeted humanitarian assistance or to understand internal movements ( Laczko and Rango, 2014; GMG, 2017). This can be a means to collect complementary quantitative data on movements at small-scale and on seasonal patterns linked to adaptation to environmental change and disasters that are difficult to account for in traditional household survey tools ( Lu et al., 2016). Other projects aim at using big data sources, such as satellite images or social media data, to identify early the environmental stressors that could lead to displacement (see for instance Isaacman et al., 2017).

Several research projects have and are collecting new data on the links between the environment and human mobility, but few with a comparative approach. There are two notable exceptions. First, the Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Evidence for Policy (MECLEP) project, implemented by IOM and six research partners in 2014-2017, and funded by the EU, conducted a comparative quantitative and qualitative study of six countries (Dominican Republic, Haiti, Kenya, Papua New Guinea, Mauritius and Viet Nam). The methodology developed for the project could easily be applied to other countries.

Second, the Pacific Climate Change and Migration (PCCM) project by ILO, UNESCAP and UNDP focused on Tuvalu, Nauru and Kiribati. The United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) released findings detailing how climatic changes are impacting these Pacific island states.
Secondary data sources and research:
The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) has compiled data on internal displacement in the context of disasters since 2008 globally (data are generated by event, not by country) through its online Global Internal Displacement Database (GIDD). The estimates are based on information by national authorities, UN agencies such as IOM, the International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC) and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), non-governmental organizations and in particular media reports. Figures are published in the annual Global Report on Displacement (GRID), which also covers internal displacement due to conflict and violence. IDMC is developing methodologies to map and assess future disaster displacement risks and is starting to gather data on cross-border displacement.

The HELIX project (High-End Climate Impacts and Extremes) provided research on climate impacts and adaptation in relation to varying global warming scenarios (2, 4 and 6 degrees Celsius), using predictive analytics. Human migration was included in the impact studies. The recent Groundswell: Preparing for internal climate migration report (Rigaud et al., 2018) developed a model for future population distribution in 2050 in three regions (sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America) if no action is taken.

The CLIMIG database of studies on environmental migration, both of qualitative and quantitative nature, was developed by the University of Neuchatel (Switzerland).

The Environmental Migration Portal by IOM, features a searchable research database, initially based on the People on the Move in a Changing Climate: A Bibliography, published by IOM in collaboration with University of Neuchatel. The database also includes migration and environment country assessments published by IOM.

The thematic working group on "Environmental change and migration" of the Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD) produced an annotated bibliography on Environmental Migration and developed a toolkit on planned relocation with many case study examples (Georgetown University, UNHCR and IOM, 2017).

The first "Atlas on Environmental Migration" was produced by IOM and Sciences Po, Paris (published with Routledge in 2017). The publication brings together, for the first time, existing knowledge on the links between migration and environmental change, presented through comprehensive maps, diagrams and case studies.

The Hugo Observatory at the University of Liége (Belgium) focuses on research on environmental changes and Migration.

Data strengths & limitations

Over the past decade, important advances on methodologies and data collection have been made. Academic researchers and specialized agencies are working on improved methodologies for comparative cross-country or cross-region studies, agent-based models and multi-factor simulators designed to predict future trends (such as drought-induced displacement modelling, Ginnetti and Franck, 2014, or IDMC's Global Displacement Risk Model focused on sudden-onset disasters based on housing destructions), and hotspot identification triangulating environmental and social data, all of which can contribute greatly to improving current evidence and future projections of environmental migration trends so as to better inform policies and action.

Innovative data sources: Big data can provide opportunities that can further be strengthened in trying to estimate the extent of movements in contexts of disasters and degrading environments. These new methods can fill gaps in time series data, indicate where people have moved from and to and enhance the timeliness of this information. In some cases, these new methods could be used to inform life-saving early warnings. At the same time, privacy safeguards and ethical considerations need to be adhered to.

Nonetheless, difficulties remain.

It is challenging to differentiate when the environment is the main factor triggering migration, rather than or in combination with other factors: In most cases, environmental factors are closely linked to socioeconomic, political, demographic, cultural and personal factors that play a role in leading to or preventing mobility (Laczko and Aghazarm, 2009; Foresight, 2011), which makes data collection beyond fast onset disasters leading to evacuations difficult. Information on people moving due to more gradual, so-called slow-onset processes like sea level rise or salinization, is scarce for methodological reasons.

The most comprehensive data available only track people newly displaced internally that year: Thanks to IDMC's work, data on internal displacement due to natural hazards are available for almost all countries. However, differing definitions used by data providers and a lack of reporting by countries remains a challenge, leading to media reports being an important source of events covered in the estimates. IDMC's data aggregates focus exclusively on people newly displaced during the year of interest. This figure reflects the flows of people during one year (or stocks by the end of the year) and does not capture the duration of people's displacement, their return home or relocation elsewhere, those not sheltered in camps or people caught in long-term displacement, so-called protracted situations, from year to year. Data collection on cross-border movements after disasters is only starting and limited to localized case studies (IDMC, 2018 (a)). Further research on cross-border disaster displacement is being supported as part of the work of the Data and Knowledge Working Group of the State-led Platform on Disaster Displacement.

Underreporting: The quality and the availability of data on displacement vary between countries and from event to event: small-scale events or disasters that occur in isolated and marginalized areas are under-reported and thus not included in the available aggregate estimates (IDMC, 2017: 98; IDMC, 2018 (a)).

Little information on links between conflict and disaster displacement: In cases where conflict is linked to disasters information on movements is lacking, in particular on displacement histories that could inform future predictions (IDMC data for instance are only available since 2008 but since 2017 include drought figures).

Comprehensive datasets on environmental migration or planned relocation are needed: Data on environmental migration and planned relocation have improved in recent years, as an increasing number of studies have been conducted in affected areas. The research databases listed above are important tools providing an overview of the existing available information. However, comparable quantitative, longitudinal, disaggregated and georeferenced data are needed to assess how different forms of mobility can be a beneficial adaptation strategy and what potential risks need to be minimized. The majority of existing surveys focus mainly on the links between migration and the environment as a driver, and are mostly qualitative in nature. More information is needed on the impacts of those movements on adaptation to environmental and climate change.

Few data on trapped populations: Some populations affected by environmental degradation and disasters may not be able to move due to a lack of financial resources or social networks. They are highly vulnerable populations, but data to inform action and protection are scarce.

Better predictive analytics are needed: When it comes to predicting future trends, the disconnection between the environmental sciences and social sciences communities constitutes an additional challenge, in a context where environmental migration research would greatly benefit from multidisciplinary research and better integration of climate and population data.

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Three key terms are important in the context of migration and environmental and climatic changes: Environmental migrants are defined as "persons or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move within their country or abroad."

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IPCC WGI Interactive Atlas - Regional information

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IPCC WGI Interactive Atlas - Regional information

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A novel tool for flexible spatial and temporal analyses of much of the observed and projected climate change information underpinning the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, including regional synthesis for Climatic Impact-Drivers (CIDs).

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The Climate Change Laws of the World map helps you visualise our data by showing climate laws, policies and litigation cases in relation to key contextual indicators.

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Use our database to search and browse climate laws, policies and litigation cases globally.

Featured country profiles

Visualise data on the map

Latest additions

Visualise data on the map

The Climate Change Laws of the World map helps you visualise our data by showing climate laws, policies and litigation cases (content - left dropdown) in relation to key contextual indicators (context - right dropdown). Select two options from the dropdown menus below to get started.

In collaboration with

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Use our database to search and browse climate laws, policies and litigation cases globally. Featured country profiles Visualise data on the map Latest additions The Climate Change Laws of the World map helps you visualise our data by showing climate laws, policies and litigation cases (content - left dropdown) in relation to key contextual indicators (context - right dropdown).

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The ND-GAIN Country Index summarizes a country's vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges in combination with its readiness to improve resilience. It aims to help governments, businesses and communities better prioritize investments for a more efficient response to the immediate global challenges ahead.

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Marketing Communications: Web // University of Notre Dame

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Country Index // Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative // University of Notre Dame

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Copyright © 2024 University of Notre Dame

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UNHCR - Displaced on the frontlines of the climate emergency

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UNHCR - Displaced on the frontlines of the climate emergency

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An interactive overview of the statistics, trends and patterns, and case studies at the intersection of displacement and climate emergency.

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Displaced on the frontlines of the climate emergency

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From the Sahel to Central America, climate change is driving displacement and increasing the vulnerability of those already forced to flee.

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Global Dispatches - Climate Security Series

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Global Dispatches - Climate Security Series

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Climate-related mobility and conflict: Pathways to peace and human security (9 June 2022)

Is Climate Migration a Security Threat? (24 June 2021): does the mass movement of people fleeing climate shocks undermine political and human security?

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Learn about the effect of ocean warming and how they regulate climate and weather on land and access various databases that shows the different impacts of ocean warming.

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KEY CONCEPTS

We all depend on the oceans. They regulate climate and affect weather on land. They also host vast biodiversity, provide nutrition, and support livelihoods in the U.S. and around the world.

But the oceans are warming, rising, and acidifying-disrupting each of these critical functions.

Summer sea surface temperatures have warmed from 1982-2021 in nearly all major U.S. ocean regions, with exceptional rates of warming in Alaska and the Northeast.

We explore ocean warming trends and impacts on people and ecosystems across 11 major U.S. ocean regions.

We also provide a snapshot of summer 2022 ocean temperatures and discuss implications for this year's Atlantic hurricane season.

Climate Central's Extreme Weather Toolkits, now available in English and Spanish, provide quick facts and reporting resources on extreme heat, rainfall, wildfires, and more.
We all depend on the oceans

Regardless of where we live, we all depend on the oceans-which account for 71% of our blue planet's surface and play a major role in regulating the climate by moving heat and water around the globe.

Harvests from oceans and inland waters provide a critical source of nutrition for over 3.3 billion people, and fisheries and aquaculture alone support the livelihoods of about 60 million people globally. The oceans are also an enormous source of cultural resources, contain vast biodiversity, and produce at least half of Earth's oxygen.

And in the U.S., about 30% of the population lives in coastal counties, where marine and coastal ecosystems protect communities and infrastructure from storms and sea level rise, provide nutrition, recreation, and support a thriving 'blue economy.' In 2020, the U.S. marine economy accounted for about $361 billion of national gross domestic product, generated $610 billion in sales, and supported 2.2 million jobs.

But the oceans are warming, rising, and acidifying

Human-caused emissions trap heat in the atmosphere. The oceans have absorbed about 93% of the heat trapped in the atmosphere since 1970 because of their vast depth and area, and seawater's higher heat capacity compared to the atmosphere. As a result, sea surface temperatures have increased over the last 140 years. In 2021, the total amount of heat stored in the ocean set a global record.

Ocean warming has limited the severity of global warming on land, but with consequences for humans and ecosystems alike. Unusually warm conditions in the ocean can devastate coral reefs, and exacerbate low-oxygen dead zones that inhibit marine life. Ocean heatwaves can impact ocean ecosystems and the fisheries and other activities that depend on them.

In addition to absorbing excess heat, the oceans have also absorbed about 26% of human-caused CO2 emissions from 2011-2020. Dissolved CO2 also leads to an increase in ocean acidity, which has surged by 30% over the past 250 years-with significant impacts on many species. And when the ocean warms, sea levels rise, contributing to flooding in coastal communities around the world.

The importance of sea surface temperatures

When it comes to ocean warming, sea surface temperatures are a very important metric. The vast majority (93%) of excess heat trapped on Earth ends up in the oceans-of which about two-thirds is absorbed in the upper 700 meters (about 0.4 miles) of the ocean, making sea surface temperature a critical indicator of global warming.

Warming in the upper ocean directly affects ocean ecosystems and vast marine biodiversity. The surface oceans are also where human recreational and commercial activities take place, including fisheries that support diets and economies.

Sea surface temperatures also influence the weather we all experience on land. Warm water is a necessary ingredient for tropical storms and hurricanes, and water temperatures also fuel winter storms like nor'easters. Warm summer waters in both oceans and lakes also impact recreational and commercial fisheries and can boost harmful algal blooms that impact water quality and put wildlife at risk.

Long-term summer sea surface warming around the U.S.

Looking at summer sea surface temperature trends from satellites operated by NOAA and NASA, we see that nearly all major U.S. ocean regions have warmed over the period 1982-2021, although the rates of warming are variable.

The oceans around Alaska and in the Northeast have warmed exceptionally quickly over this period and are some of the fastest-warming ocean regions in the world.

The Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Islands region around Hawaiʻi have both experienced gradual warming

Waters off the west coast have warmed the least, due in part to the cool conditions in the last few years caused by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the recent La Niña

The Great Lakes are major inland water bodies and are critical for regional economies, drinking water, ecosystems, and culture-and they too have warmed quickly over the last 40 years.

The regional impacts of these warming trends can vary from disrupting major fisheries in the Northeast to enhancing hurricane activity and rainfall amounts in the Gulf of Mexico and growing risks of toxic algal blooms on water quality in the Great Lakes, a major regional source of drinking water.

Summer 2022 sea surface temperature snapshot

One major feature of global sea surface temperature this summer is the cool water in the equatorial Pacific. This large area of cool water is an indicator of the La Niña phase of ENSO that we're currently experiencing. La Niña conditions are associated with drought conditions in the southwestern U.S. as well as with higher Atlantic hurricane activity. NOAA forecasts an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season-with 14-20 named storms and three to five major hurricanes-in large part due to persistent La Niña conditions.

POTENTIAL LOCAL STORY ANGLES

Looking for region-specific ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes data?
The Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) is NOAA's national-regional partnership that collects high-quality data relevant to the nation's ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes regions. IOOS operates across 11 U.S. regional associations. Each regional association's website is a hub for region-specific data.

How are we adapting to climate-driven changes in the oceans?
NOAA's National Marine Protected Areas Center enables marine habitat conservation and restoration-important nature-based solutions for our changing oceans. NOAA's interactive Restoration Atlas can be used to find coastal and marine habitat restoration projects throughout the U.S. The EPA's Coastal Adaptation Toolkit provides resources on coastal change, impacts, and adaptation options. The EPA's Climate Ready Estuaries site tracks adaptation projects in coastal U.S. states.

What are the current and forecasted ecological risks from warming waters?
NOAA's Coral Reef Watch provides near-real-time data used to monitor and predict coral bleaching events globally. NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science produces harmful algal bloom forecasts and coastal hypoxia forecasts by region.

Who is most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in the oceans?
A recent IPCC report identifies coastal populations, small-scale fisheries, shellfish gatherers, small island developing states, and Indigenous Peoples as being especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in the oceans.

Livelihoods that depend on specific species (e.g., a lobster fishery) are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. To learn more about livelihood-supporting species in your region:
NOAA Fisheries' Species Directory, searchable by U.S. region, provides facts about each species' biology, range, fishery management, and harvest. NOAA FishWatch includes resources on sustainable fisheries management, as well as a sustainable seafood database that is searchable by U.S. region.

LOCAL EXPERTS

The SciLine service, 500 Women Scientists or the press offices of local universities may be able to connect you with local scientists who have expertise on ocean warming and climate change. The American Association of State Climatologists is a professional scientific organization composed of all state climatologists.

NATIONAL EXPERTS

Boyin Huang, PhD
NOAA/NCEI (OISST)
Contact: boyin.huang@noaa.gov
Related expertise: global sea surface temperature

Katherine Mills, PhD
Research Scientist
Gulf of Maine Research Institute
Contact: kmills@gmri.org (please contact or cc Elijah Miller, emiller@gmri.org, who will support timely responses to inquiries)
Related expertise: marine ecosystem change and fisheries impacts

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We all depend on the oceans. They regulate climate and affect weather on land. They also host vast biodiversity, provide nutrition, and support livelihoods in the U.S. and around the world. But the oceans are warming, rising, and acidifying-disrupting each of these critical functions.

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Drought and floods — the climate exodus: Documentation of the displacement caused by climate change and natural hazards across the world.

Fleeing climate change — the real environmental disaster: How many millions of people will be forced to leave their homes by 2050? This documentary looks at the so-called hotspots of climate change in the Sahel zone, Indonesia and the Russian Tundra.

Climate change: Europe's first heat officer: Eleni Myrivili, Athens' "chief heat officer," is working on ways to prepare the Greek capital for the consequences of climate change. That's no small feat: The city has 3 million residents — and is almost unbearable in summer.

Kiribati: a drowning paradise in the South Pacific: Climate change and rising sea levels mean the island nation of Kiribati in the South Pacific is at risk of disappearing into the sea.

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Drought and floods — the climate exodus | DW Documentary

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NASA has been investigating sea level rise for decades and the causes of sea level rise with high accuracy and precision. In this section, descriptions of the processes causing global and regional sea-level change are provided and connected to the observing tools used to study them.

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Rising Waters: How NASA is Monitoring Sea Level Rise

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Our global sea level is rising at a faster and faster rate-impacting communities along coastlines worldwide. From space, planes, and ships, @NASA is #SeeingTheSeas while studying the causes and effects of our rising waters.

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The concentration of GHG emissions in the atmosphere is one of the key indicators to evaluate the state of the climate. This is mainly because it causes global temperature to rise with a host of impacts and catastrophic consequences. Global average temperature is set to exceed 3°C this century which entails extreme variations in weather.

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Climate Change is Happening Now (19 March 2019): why people displaced by climate change don’t have refugee status - and how we can use existing legal frameworks to ensure their protection.

Climate Change: How Local Communities Can Build Resilience to Climate Change (2 April 2019): Interview with Walter Kaelin. How can communities affected by cross-border climate-related displacement make their voices heard in these intergovernmental negotiations?

Climate Change: Former President of Ireland Mary Robinson on Climate Justice (9 April 2019): the links between climate change-related displacement, human rights, and global equality.

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The world is facing the largest displacement crisis since WWII as a number of humanitarian emergencies rage on. Grant Gordon and Ravi Gurumurthy from the International Rescue Committee (IRC) have in-depth conversations with leading humanitarians, foreign policymakers, and innovators to understand how they think about, and tackle these global crises.
rescue.org/displaced

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The world is facing the largest displacement crisis since WWII as a number of humanitarian emergencies rage on. Grant Gordon and Ravi Gurumurthy from the International Rescue Committee (IRC) have in-depth conversations with leading humanitarians, foreign policymakers, and innovators to understand how they think about, and tackle these global crises.

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We invite to read the following real life stories related to climate change and forced displacement:

India's Climate Trapped: Odisha's Heatwave

UN's Chris Hodder on climate change and more driving displacement in Somalia

Lake Chad Basin Loss & Damage

Repeat wildfires, Repeat Displacements

Ecological Degradation and Climate Change: Drought Conditions in Bentiu, South Sudan March 2022

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The Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) gathers and analyzes data to disseminate critical multi layered information on the mobility, vulnerabilities, and needs of displaced and mobile populations that enables decision makers and responders to provide these populations with better context specific assistance

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Base map from Google and country shapes from ESRI are for illustration purposes only. Names and boundaries do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by IOM.

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Climate Unpacked - Climate change and migration: myth or reality?

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Climate Unpacked - Climate change and migration: myth or reality?

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In this episode Dr. Caroline Zickgraf talks about the relationships between climate change and migration. Dr. Zickgraf is a lecturer for the course "Environment and Migration" at Sciences Po Paris, a member of the Advisory Group to the UNFCCC Task Force on Displacement and the Deputy Director of the Hugo Observatory at the University of Liège, which is a research centre studying the interactions between environmental changes, human migration, and politics.

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Climate Unpacked: Climate change and migration: myth or reality? | Ausha

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Hello and welcome to our first episode of the Climate Unpacked podcast! In this episode we had an insightful discussion with Dr. Caroline Zickgraf about the relationships between climate change and migration.

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ECOLEX - The Gateway to Environmental Law

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ECOLEX - The Gateway to Environmental Law

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ECOLEX is an information service on environmental law, operated jointly by FAO, IUCN and UNEP.

Its purpose is to build capacity worldwide by providing the most comprehensive possible global source of information on environmental law.

The ECOLEX database includes information on treaties, international soft-law and other non-binding policy and technical guidance documents, national legislation, judicial decisions, and law and policy literature. Users have direct access to the abstracts and indexing information about each document, as well as to the full text of most of the information provided.

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ECOLEX | The gateway to environmental law

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What is ECOLEX? ECOLEX is an information service on environmental law, operated jointly by FAO, IUCN and UNEP. Its purpose is to build capacity worldwide by providing the most comprehensive possible global source of information on environmental law .

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The Global Climate Action Map helps to track the progress of non-state actors and initiatives on climate action.

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Discover Global Climate Action on our new interactive map, showcasing actions from countries, regions, cities, companies, investors and organizations. Please refer to our About page to learn more and provide us with your feedback.

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They Carry Us With Them: The Great Tree Migration

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They Carry Us With Them: The Great Tree Migration

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An interactive explainer to the phenomenon of tree migration and the changing ecosystems. Explains the patterns of tree migration (using examples in North America), the reasons behind it (atmospheric CO2 concentration, historic dispersion of plant species by humans, etc) as well as its impact on humans.

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The Spread of Emerald Ash Borer

In 2002, foresters in Michigan finally figured out what was killing all of the ash trees. That summer the Michigan Department of Agriculture issued a quarantine in the five counties surrounding Detroit, the epicenter of the emerald ash borer invasion-where 99.7 percent of mature ash trees had died-and began urgent educational campaigns about the borer (commonly referred to as EAB). But by the end of 2003, EAB was in thirteen counties in Michigan and had been found in Ohio. In 2004, the United States Department of Agriculture began cutting down healthy ash to create buffer zones. Canada cut a swath of ash trees that was six miles wide, from Lake St. Clair down to Lake Erie. By 2012, EAB was in fifteen states and two Canadian provinces, and an estimated 50-100 million ash trees had been lost. The economic impact of tree removal and replacement across a twenty-five-state region was projected at $10.7 billion.

On its own, the beetle might only move a half mile a year, but people were cutting dead ash trees, not knowing what had killed them, and chopping them into firewood, which was sold and carried across county and state lines-neither the sellers nor the buyers ever aware that beetle larvae were nestled inside.

Despite years of education campaigns, expanding quarantine zones, and bans on moving firewood, the borer, as of this writing, has spread into thirty-five states and five Canadian provinces. APHIS-the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service-has since abandoned quarantines and firewood bans as effective strategies for control, though individual states like Maine still have quarantines and bans in place. APHIS is instead focusing its efforts on other methods of slowing EAB's spread, such as biological control: in this case, releasing parasitoid wasps that are native to EAB's habitat in Asia and a known predator of the beetle. So far, this strategy has had a limited but encouraging effect.

In 2017, the International Union for the Conservation of Nature added six species of North American ash to its Red List, with black ash, blue ash, green ash, and white ash listed as critically endangered.

All of them had been common species in 2002.

The present-day story of tree migration in Maine-indeed, anywhere-is not a simple one. While one can broadly point to climate change as the culprit, the closer one looks, the more complex the image appears. When I asked Patty Cormier, director of the Bureau of Forestry and Maine's state forester, if she could give me a big-picture overview of how forests in Maine are changing in response to a changing climate, she said: "Nope. It's very complex. There's so much that goes into it. You can't simply look at one factor with our forests and make predictions about the future."

The fact that Maine's boreal forest is creeping north into cooler climes does not directly and wholly correlate with rising temperatures-though the annual average temperature in Maine has increased by 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1895, with most of the warming occurring in the winter months. That sugar maples and birch are being increasingly replaced by beech trees in what used to be widespread beech-maple-birch forest ecosystems, where the three species had coexisted in a balanced relationship, cannot be fully attributed to changes in seasonal patterns nor to the fact that summers have lengthened by about two weeks while winters have shortened by the same amount. And the ongoing decline of eastern hemlock, which has been plagued by the rapid expansion of hemlock woolly adelgid, can be accounted for only in part by the decreasing depth of annual snowfall.

The external factors that affect the health, makeup, and movement of forests are as complex as the forests themselves. The phenomenon of tree migration arises from interrelated and overlapping causes, such as changes in climate, past and present land use and management, the proliferation of native pests and plants, the introduction of non-native species, and the built landscape. And because researching tree migration often requires studies that last at least several decades, in most cases we do not yet have enough data to see the picture fully. Attempting to follow the trees-or trying to predict where they will go-currently means a lot of guesswork and few definitive answers.

But Maine is nonetheless a useful case study for a better understanding of tree migration within the United States. With 89 percent of its land forested, Maine has the highest percentage of forest of any state. Additionally, the forests of Maine exist in a transitional ecotone, with boreal forests (primarily spruce and fir) to the north and temperate hardwood forests (primarily maples, birches, and beeches) to the south: thus, many species already exist at or near the edge of their natural range, making it easier to perceive where those edges are expanding or contracting.

Other noteworthy factors for our purpose: 93 percent of Maine's forest is privately owned and managed; 97 percent of Maine's forests are classified as timberland. The forest products industry-which includes pulp and paper, hardwood and softwood boards, panels, dowels, wood composites, Christmas trees, firewood, and maple syrup-contributes upwards of $5 billion to Maine's economy every year, while forest-based recreation contributes nearly $3 billion. "The trees are all over the state, and it's our identity," says Patty Cormier. "So it's huge. I take that very seriously. I want to keep it that way."

At the time of European settlement in the 1600s, there were 18.2 million acres of forest in Maine, compared with today's 17.6 million. Though this might give the impression that comparably little forest has been lost in the last four hundred years, that impression is false. Most of the forests of southern Maine were razed to make way for agriculture. Following the industrialization of the Northeast in the mid-1800s and the relocation of much of the nation's agriculture to the Midwest, many of southern Maine's farms and remaining forests were felled under increasing pressure from development, which has only increased into today. Between 1980 and 2000, development altered 850,000 acres of the state's forests. Landscape disturbance is a particular threat to tree migration. One study attests that once 70 percent of an area has been disturbed, the ability of plants to migrate is effectively halted.

Following settlement, the northern part of the state was quickly identified as prime timber country. Bangor was known as the "Lumber Capital of the World" by the mid-1800s, and the subsequent rise of the pulp and paper industry shortly thereafter kept forests in the northern part of the state under a near-constant regime of cutting. The forests that have regrown on what was farmland in northern Maine are younger forests with reduced diversity. Though the forest products industry has been in decline in the state for the last decade, demand for forest products remains a major factor in the state's economy, only recently outpaced by the service industry.

The state's history of clear-cutting in the north and clearing for agriculture in the south has by and large determined what tree species make up Maine's forests today. Thus, in considering where forests will be in the future, one must take into account where they have been in the past, as well as the fact that the majority of those forests have already been drastically-and repeatedly-altered since European settlement. There are only about six thousand acres of old-growth forests remaining in the state. Everything else has been felled at least once.

"Northeastern forests continue to recover from a long period of intensive agricultural clearing and lumbering that peaked in the late nineteenth century," one study of New England forests notes. "Despite the pervasive influence of many novel agents of global change, recovery dynamics ... continue to be the dominant process driving forest change in the region." Even black ash, a comparably rare species in Maine-making up about 2 percent of forests-exists where it does in the state today largely because of agricultural use of the land. Many stands in central and southern Maine are part of early-successional forests that are less than a hundred years old, having regenerated on abandoned farmland.

In other words, humans have been altering the future paths of Maine's trees for centuries.

Climate models predict that Maine will be between three and fourteen degrees warmer in winter by the year 2100-a wide range that underscores the unpredictability of the climate crisis. Precipitation is expected to increase, primarily in the form of rain; the number of days with extreme high temperatures is expected to double; and average snowfall is expected to continue to decrease. The decline in winter snow will bring changes to the biological processes of soil, will lead to the increased proliferation of pests, and will affect wildlife foraging and nesting. Without the insulation of snow, cold snaps can freeze soil and fine roots.

Broadly speaking, Maine is expected to see a large decline in its boreal forests-which are dominated by red spruce, black spruce, white spruce, and balsam fir-by the end of the twenty-first century. These trees are moving north and upslope, and while they are likely to find some refuge in the higher elevations of New England's mountains, their populations are likely to greatly diminish. One study from the University of Vermont predicted that New England will lose between 71 and 100 percent of its boreal conifer forest by 2085. In the meantime, northern deciduous hardwood forests are also predicted to decline, while the oak-hickory forest type will shift northward by an estimated one hundred kilometers. Hardwood species with established southern ranges-red maple, northern red oak, and beech-are expected to move farther northward and to increase in abundance as Maine's climate transforms into something more akin to that of Pennsylvania.

These predictions raise what are for Jesse Wheeler-vegetation program manager at Acadia National Park-an uncomfortable but urgent set of questions about the role of human intervention in the movement of forests. "How much do we try to facilitate what's going to be coming in? What I mean by that is, if there are species that aren't growing in the park now-that aren't natural to this area in 2021-but do have suitable habitat and are growing in populations, let's say, 50-100 miles from here, what can we do to allow for those to come in and establish? ... It's unlikely with natural seed dispersal that they'll be able to get here, even within the next century, let alone decades, because of the built landscape primarily just prohibiting that. You've got concrete and pavement that's really preventing ... natural dispersal."

In other words, stepping back and allowing trees to arrive naturally on their own time is, in many places, not an option. And while comparably rapid changes in temperature and precipitation would already be enough to move forests, there are other factors that have the potential to change where trees will be able to thrive: particularly invasive plants and pests.

Dr. William Livingston, associate professor of forest resources at the University of Maine, has spent thirty-five years observing Maine's forests. In that time, the most significant changes he's seen have not been drastic shifts in ranges of native trees but the arrival of invasive plants. "That's happening to a much faster extent and impacting the natural communities to a great extent," he says. "If there're any vegetation changes I'm concerned about, it's with the invasive plant species coming and getting into our natural systems."

Even if species could find green corridors through the built environment, many non-native plants and insects are poised to move into transitioning forests faster than the trees. Jesse Wheeler and his colleagues, therefore, have to do their best to predict-decades ahead of concrete research-which trees will lose suitable habitat and which trees might be able to replace them, while factoring in ongoing management of the many invasives that have already arrived. "What do we select?" he asks. "And how do we select? And how do we grow and source?" Human management is a must, at least in parts of Acadia, if the forests are to remain forests.

Before the threat of the emerald ash borer, Maine's population of black ash trees was widely expected to sustain losses in habitat. With predicted changes in precipitation-including wetter wet periods and drier dry periods-there were likely to be changes in the hydrology of the wetland and riparian ecosystems where the trees grow. It was not fully known how the trees would respond, in part because such things are difficult to predict, and in part because the trees make up such a small percentage of Maine's forests-having little value in the state's mainstream economy-and thus has not been extensively studied. But even in his lifetime, Richard has seen black ash leave the Littleton area, a phenomenon he believes is not entirely to be blamed on logging.

Wabanaki people in Maine have been watching closely and with a clear sense of what is at stake as the emerald ash borer moves east. Black ash is not only an ecological keystone species but a cultural keystone species as well. The tree is part of Wabanaki cosmology and creation stories. Passing down the knowledge of basketry has long meant passing down stories, language, and tradition. Baskets have provided a critical source of economic, and therefore social and physical, well-being for tribal basketmakers since the arrival of European settlers and into today.

As the emerald ash borer-considered the most destructive forest pest in the country's history-has moved east across the United States, it has left graveyards of ash trees in its wake. Most predictions are dire: the borer is expected to eventually kill 98 to 99 percent of ash trees in North America.

Can we say, then, that black ash is migrating? Is it shifting its range, or is its range being erased? Can we tease out the patterns of global trade that brought the borer to American shores from the bigger pattern of a warming planet? From the demand for timber? From people fleeing the arrival of the climate crisis elsewhere-fire and drought and floods-and coming to Maine and clearing forests and developing land that will buy them and their families a more secure climate future?

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They Carry Us With Them: The Great Tree Migration - Emergence Magazine

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Around the world, scores of species of trees are moving north, or west, or upslope. What is at stake as the forests change around us? Experience four stories of tree migration.

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“To a Lesser Degree” is an 8-episode-long podcast on climate change from The Economist, covering the technologies, the adaptation and the politics needed to address extreme climate change.

We recommend listening to Episode 5 on Adaptation with Bill Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft.

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RISING GLOBAL temperatures have already increased the frequency of floods, wildfires, droughts and heatwaves around the world. If humanity does not change course rapidly, the effects of climate change will become more extreme. What can be done to avoid this outcome?

"To a Lesser Degree" is a thought-provoking new podcast series on climate change from The Economist. Over eight episodes we take a clear-eyed look at the technologies, the adaptation and the politics needed to address extreme climate change.

On the eighth and final episode of "To a Lesser Degree": COP26 has come to a close. What does the outcome mean for the future of the planet? We measure it against earlier landmarks of environmental summitry.

Gro Harlem Brundtland, a former Norwegian prime minister and pioneer of environmental dealmaking, tells us the process is yielding results. And science fiction author Kim Stanley Robinson makes the case for optimism. Listen here:

On the seventh episode: the COP26 conference is taking place amid an energy crisis. How will political pressures on the negotiators from activists, public opinion, and a troubled energy market influence the outcome?

UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed tells us why the negotiations are so important to the poor world. We go to The Netherlands, where green activists have turned to the courts and we look at America's tricky energy politics. Listen here:

On the sixth: as the COP26 climate conference begins in Glasgow, much is at stake. Will the leaders gathered there be able to reach an agreement to slow global warming?

US climate envoy John Kerry tells us why he is optimistic. We report from Australia, one of the rich countries lagging in its climate commitments, to look at the politics behind the negotiations. Listen below:

In the fifth episode: can humanity learn how to adapt to a hotter world? Actions to combat climate change have been primarily focused on mitigation - limiting the amount of greenhouse-gas emissions in the atmosphere. But even with those efforts, the planet's temperature will continue to rise, leading to more extreme weather events. How will humanity adapt?

Bill Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft, tells us why adaptation in agriculture is critical to feeding the world. We go to China to explore a "sponge city," designed to absorb water. And we look at the peril and promise of solar geoengineering. Listen here:

In episode four: the green revolution won't be cheap, but there is enough money to make it happen - if it goes to the right places. What role can finance play in steering economies towards a low-carbon future?

Elemental Excelerator's Dawn Lippert tells us why Hawaii is the best place to help climate start-ups find funding. Tariq Fancy, who ran sustainable investments for Blackrock, asks whether environmental investing makes any difference at all. Listen below:

In episode three: lowering gas emissions won't be enough to stop the world from overheating. Carbon needs to be sucked out of the atmosphere. But can that be done quickly enough -- and on what scale?

Nathalie Seddon of the Nature-Based Solutions Initiative explores the ways ecosystems can be enhanced to store carbon. And we go to Iceland to visit the world's largest direct air capture facility that removes carbon from the air, which is then injected into volcanic rock. Listen below:

In episode two: eating less meat or giving up flying are palpable ways people can help mitigate climate change. But how much does personal action matter? And how should societies meet the challenge of lowering greenhouse gas emissions?

Yael Parag of the Reichman University in Tel Aviv weighs the merits of individual carbon budgets. Bruce Friedrich of the Good Food Institute highlights the impact of eating beef. And Jon Fasman, The Economist's US digital editor, tries a lab-grown meat substitute to assess its flavour and potential. Listen to the episode:

And in the first episode of "To a Lesser Degree": our editors map out the challenge. It's not too late to avert a climate disaster. The question is, how?

We map out the three priorities: reducing emissions and finding ways to suck carbon out of the air, adapting to climate change; and navigating the fraught global politics to reach agreement at November's UN Climate Conference in Glasgow. John McDermott, The Economist's Chief Africa Correspondent, reports from South Africa on the difficulties of weaning the country off coal. Listen below:

Each episode draws on the expertise of special guests and The Economist 's global network of correspondents, to report on the decisions that matter for the future of our planet.

World leaders gather in November in Glasgow, Scotland, for a United Nations climate conference known as COP26. The goal is to agree on action to slow the heating of the Earth.

It's the most significant meeting since the 2015 Paris summit, when almost 200 countries agreed to keep the Earth's temperature well below 2.0°C over pre-industrial levels and preferably no more than 1.5°C. The global average has already increased by roughly 1.1°C - 1.2°C and if dramatic action isn't taken, it could hit 3°C-a catastrophe for the critical Earth systems upon which humanity relies.

In the run up to the conference, we'll be asking:

Can humanity slow the pace of global warming?

How well can people adapt to climate change?

Who will pay the price of a hotter planet?

What innovations could counteract the damage done by climate change?

The new podcast is hosted by Vijay Vaitheeswaran, The Economist 's global energy & climate innovation editor, with Catherine Brahic, environment editor, and Oliver Morton, briefings editor.

Together they ask expert guests whether and how the pace of global warming can be slowed and explore how everything - from finance to agriculture, transport to international policy - might need to change in order to do it.

The series will map out the path to tackling climate change with intelligent and informed analysis of the three key steps that need to happen: reducing emissions and removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere; adapting to climate change; and getting the politics right in Glasgow and beyond.

"To a Lesser Degree" is an eight-part special series, with new episodes published every Monday, starting 27th September 2021. Subscribe and listen on: or wherever you get your podcasts
"To a Lesser Degree" is part of our collection of award-winning podcasts which include "The Intelligence", "The Economist Asks", "Money Talks" and "Checks and Balance".

The podcast is complemented by our newsletter "The Climate Issue", published fortnightly on Mondays and in this package we aim to give our readers and listeners fair-minded analysis of a politically, and emotionally, heated topic.

Subscribe and listen on: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Pocket Casts | Google | Overcast

To dig deeper and follow the global climate story:

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To a Lesser Degree-a climate podcast from The Economist

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RISING GLOBAL temperatures have already increased the frequency of floods, wildfires, droughts and heatwaves around the world. If humanity does not change course rapidly, the effects of climate change will become more extreme. What can be done to avoid this outcome? "To a Lesser Degree" is a thought-provoking new podcast series on climate change from The Economist.

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Reimagine Law - Climate Migration and Displacement

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Reimagine Law - Climate Migration and Displacement

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This episode looks at what we mean by climate migration, why it is an imminent threat, and how it links to matters of social justice.

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‎Reimagine Law: Climate Migration and Displacement on Apple Podcasts

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This episode discusses the vital issues of displacement of people through climate change.

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Science Magazine Podcast - Keeping ads out of dreams, and calculating the cost of climate displacement

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Science Magazine Podcast - Keeping ads out of dreams, and calculating the cost of climate displacement

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09:04-21:50: Bina Desai, head of Programs at the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre in Geneva, discusses how to predict the economic impact of human displacement due to climate change as part of a special issue on strategic retreat.

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First this week, News Intern Sofia Moutinho joins host Sarah Crespi to discuss scientists concerns about advertisers looking into using our smart speakers or phones to whisper ads to us while we sleep.

Next, Bina Desai, head of Programs at the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre in Geneva, discusses how to predict the economic impact of human displacement due to climate change as part of a special issue on strategic retreat.

This week's episode was produced with help from Podigy.
Listen to previous podcasts About the Science Podcast
Download a transcript (PDF)

[Image: Ramakrishna Math and Ramakrishna Mission Belur Math/Amphan Cyclone Relief Services; Music: Jeffrey Cook]

Authors: Sarah Crespi; Sofia Moutinho

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Keeping ads out of dreams, and calculating the cost of climate displacement

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First this week, News Intern Sofia Moutinho joins host Sarah Crespi to discuss scientists concerns about advertisers looking into using our smart speakers or phones to whisper ads to us while we sleep.

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IDOS - Climate change and migration: How do they connect?

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IDOS - Climate change and migration: How do they connect?

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Migration and climate change are both highly complex phenomena. In the public debate we often hear about „climate related migration“ or even „climate refugees“, and very often this is done with a note of alert.

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Climate change and migration: How do they connect?

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UNSW - All at sea: A story of climate change displacement

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UNSW - All at sea: A story of climate change displacement

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Every year about 26 million are displaced by climatic events yet no law exists to protect them. Produced by UNSW for the Grand Challenge on Refugees and Migration.

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All at sea: A story of climate change displacement

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IPCC - Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability

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IPCC - Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability

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Video of Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability, the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

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Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability - Full video

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IPCC - Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change

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IPCC - Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change

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Video of Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

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Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change - Full video

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Adaptation Community - Climate Change & Migration: Useful Materials

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Adaptation Community - Climate Change & Migration: Useful Materials

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An explainer about migration as an adaptation strategy for climate change-induced human mobility.

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Climate Change and Migration - Adaptation Community

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With its increasing adverse effects, climate change will continue to have significant impacts on human mobility and be a major influencing factor in people's decisions to leave their homes. Impacts will include loss of land and livelihoods, and heavy and recurring damage to infrastructure.

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ICRC - The Inequalities of Climate Change

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ICRC - The Inequalities of Climate Change

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Of the countries the most vulnerable to climate emergency, the majority are at war. How do you survive two simultaneous catastrophes? In this video, people living through conflict frequently tell about the massive environmental changes they are witnessing. Their daily lives are not only made more difficult by the violence they experience, but also by a changing climate and environment.

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International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)

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The inequalities of climate change - ICRC

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The publication provides a summary on the state of the climate indicators in 2022 including the most recent findings on climate related risks and impacts on food security, humanitarian and population displacement aspects and impact on ecosystems.

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WMO e-Library provides free access to a vast collection of publications on meteorology, climatology, hydrology, and related fields. It contains materials produced by WMO, jointly produced with other agencies, or sponsored/co-sponsored by WMO, as well as legacy publications by WMO's predecessor - the International Meteorological Organization (IMO), founded 151 years ago in 1873.

e-Library offers a variety of search, filtering and browsing options. Users can also create custom collections, bookmark search results, and receive notifications of new uploads. For more information on how to use the e-Library, please consult the page. Any other inquiries may be sent via the form.

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Berkeley Earth - Global Temperature Report for 2022

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Berkeley Earth - Global Temperature Report for 2022

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Data collected and analysed by Berkeley Earth showing the temperature rise for the year 2022.

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Berkeley Earth, a California-based non-profit research organization, has been preparing independent analyses of global mean temperature changes since 2013. The following is our report on global mean temperature during 2022.

We conclude that 2022 was nominally the fifth warmest year on Earth since 1850. Our estimate of the global mean temperature in 2022 was slightly warmer than 2021 and similar to 2015. Given the uncertainties associated with temperature measurements, 2022 and 2015 are essentially tied, making 2022 consistent with either the fifth or sixth warmest year. .

The last eight years have included all eight of the warmest years observed in the instrumental record.

Year-to-year rankings are likely to reflect short-term natural variability. In 2021 and 2022, a persistent La Niña event has reduced temperatures somewhat compared to years without a La Niña event. Overall, the long-term trend remains consistent with an ongoing pattern of global warming. The cyclic warming and cooling due to El Niño and La Niña are one of the largest sources of year-to-year internal variability in the global average temperature, often adding or subtracting 0.1 °C from the global average. It is fairly likely that once El Niño related warming returns, that we will also see a new record warm year.

While not a record warm year overall, 8.5% of the Earth's surface did have a record warm annual average locally in 2022. By chance, these areas coincided with a number of major population centers, including in Western Europe. We estimate that 850 million people experienced a record warm annual average in 2022. None of the Earth's surface had a record cold annual average in 2022.

In addition, 2022 was notable for:

New national record high annual averages for 28 countries, including the UK, Spain, France, Germany, New Zealand, and China

Record warmth in Western Europe, including the first ever 40 °C day in the United Kingdom

Ongoing long-lived La Nina event, providing a extended period of slightly reduced temperatures

March heatwave in Antarctica that produced the highest temperature excursion above normal ever measured anywhere on Earth

Droughts affecting Europe, China, and US Southwest. Floods in Pakistan.

Nominally the 7th warmest year on land and the 6th warmest year in the oceans.

Annual Temperature Anomaly

The global mean temperature in 2022 is estimated to have been 1.24 °C (2.24 °F) above the average temperature from 1850-1900, a period often used as a pre-industrial baseline for global temperature targets. This is ~0.03 °C (~0.05 °F) warmer than in 2021. As a result, 2021 is nominally the fifth warmest year to have been directly observed, though the years 2015, 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2022 all cluster closely together relative to their uncertainty estimates. In particular 2022 and 2015 are essentially tied, and 2022 could just as easily be regarded as the 6 th warmest year.

This global mean temperature in 2022 is equivalent to 0.91 °C (1.64 °F) above the 1951-1980 average, which is often used as a reference period for comparing global climate analyses.

The last eight years stand out as the eight warmest years to have been directly observed.

The temperature uncertainties can be visualized using the schematic below where each year's temperature estimate is represented by a distribution reflecting its uncertainty. In the analysis that Berkeley Earth conducts, the uncertainty on the mean temperature is approximately 0.03 °C (0.05 °F) for recent years. The global mean temperature in 2022 fell squarely between those observed in 2015 & 2017. These three years have substantially overlapping uncertainties, leading to an associated uncertainty in the true relative rankings of these years.

The last eight years have been part of a period of significant warmth well above all previous years since 1850. This reflects the long-term trend towards global warming. Though 2022 is cooler than some of the other recent years, its overall temperature remains consistent with the long-term warming trend.

Land Average Temperature in 2022

On land, 2022 was nominally the seventh warmest year observed, and is effectively tied with 2021 and 2015.

In 2022, the land average temperature was 1.70 ± 0.04 °C above the average temperature from 1850 to 1900. As discussed below, though it was only the fifth warmest year globally, some territories saw record warm annual averages in 2022.

Temperature Distribution in 2022

The following map shows how local temperatures in 2022 have increased relative to the average temperature in 1951-1980. Prominent warmth over Europe and Asia is visible this year, as is La Niña associated cooling in the Pacific.

As can be expected from the global warming caused by greenhouse gases, the temperature increase over the globe is broadly distributed, affecting nearly all land and ocean areas. In 2022, 88% of the Earth's surface was significantly warmer than the average temperature during 1951-1980, 7% was of a similar temperature, and only 5% was significantly colder.

We estimate that 8.5% of the Earth's surface set a new local record for the warmest annual average. As discussed below, these locations with record warm annual averages are home to ~850 million people.

In 2022, no places on Earth experienced a record cold annual average.

Land areas generally show more than twice as much warming as the ocean. When compared to the 1850-1900 averages, the land average in 2022 has increased 1.70 ± 0.04 °C (3.07 ± 0.07 °F) and the ocean surface temperature, excluding sea ice regions, has increased 0.86 ± 0.04 °C (1.55 ± 0.06 °F).

2022 is nominally the 7 th warmest year on land, though the difference between 5 th, 6 th, and 7 th is negligible. For the ocean surface, we find that 2022 nominally ranks as the 6 th warmest year. However, the differences between the 5 th, 6 th, 7 th and 8 th warmest years in the ocean are all small compared to the measurement uncertainty. The following figure shows land and ocean temperature changes relative to the average from 1850 to 1900. The tendency for land averages to increase more quickly than ocean averages is clearly visible.

As in other recent years, 2022 also shows strong warming over the Arctic that exceeds the Earth's mean rate of warming. Over the last 40 years, the Arctic has warmed at ~4 times the average global rate. This is consistent with the process known as Arctic amplification. By melting sea ice and decreasing snow cover, warming in the Arctic allows more sunlight to be absorbed, which in turn leads to additional warming. However, 2022 was not as warm as other recent years, and is ranked only 10 th overall, slightly ahead of 2021, but significantly cooler than 2020 or 2016. Similarly, Arctic sea ice melt in 2022 was less extreme than other recent years, though still well ahead on what was typical 30 years ago.

Both the tendency for land to warm faster than ocean and the higher rate of warming over the Arctic are expected based on our understanding of how increases in greenhouse gas concentrations will impact the Earth's climate. As has been reported by the Global Carbon Project and other observers, 2022 saw a new record for the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This is due to the continued accumulation of carbon dioxide from human activities. The annual amount of carbon dioxide emitted in 2022 was 1.0% higher than 2021 and set a new all-time high. The previous record high for carbon dioxide emissions occurred in 2019 before a brief decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Development of La Niña

The emergence of the La Niña weather phenomenon in the latter half of 2020 had a substantial influence on temperatures at the end of 2020, and an even larger impact on 2021 and 2022.

La Niña is characterized by the emergence of a large area of relatively cool water in the eastern equatorial Pacific, as can be clearly seen in the annual average map above. In addition to the immediate cooling in the Pacific, La Niña can have far-reaching effects on global circulation and weather patterns. This disruption of weather patterns tends to be associated with an extended period of somewhat reduced global average temperatures that can last for months beyond the peak of the La Niña in the Pacific.

Notably, the monthly time series of ocean average temperatures shifted sharply lower at the end of 2020 due to La Niña, and has remained below the highs seen in 2016 and 2020. These somewhat reduced ocean temperatures helped to keep the global average temperature in 2022 lower than in other recent years.

Ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have maintained their La Niña conditions throughout 2022. The current La Niña began in 2020 and is expected to continue into early 2023, making it relatively long-lived. During La Niña conditions, the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean is characterized by below normal temperatures, and increased downward transport of surface heat. As a result, global mean temperatures tend to be somewhat lower during La Niña years. During El Niño years, the opposite is present, as warm water in the Eastern Pacific releases extra heat into the atmosphere.

Roughly speaking, we expect each 1 °C (2 °F) temperature shift in the main El Niño / La Niña region to drive a corresponding ~0.1 °C (~0.2 °F) variation in the global mean temperature, with a lag of 3-6 months. In other words, we expect the effect of La Niña in 2022 was roughly to make the annual average ~0.1 °C (~0.2 °F) colder than it might otherwise have been.

When the variability in the Pacific inevitably shifts back towards an El Niño - as appears likely in mid-to-late 2023 - the additional 0.1-0.2 °C (0.2-0.4 °F) of warmth expected to be released by El Niño will greatly increase the odds that the following year will be a new record for global average temperature (i.e. a possible 2024 record, if El Niño does return in mid/late 2023).

National Average Temperature

Though the focus of our work is on global and regional climate analysis, it is also possible to use our data to estimate national temperature trends.

In Berkeley Earth's estimation, 2022 had the warmest annual average since instrumental records began in the following 28 countries:

Afghanistan, Andorra, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, China, Croatia, Fiji, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Kyrgyzstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Morocco, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Portugal, San Marino, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Tajikistan, Tonga, Tunisia, and Vanuatu

This is similar to 25 countries that set national average records in 2021 and significantly fewer than the 45 countries that experienced record warming in 2020. However, it still represents a substantial fraction of the world's population that has just lived through the warmest year in their local history. Looking at the specific sub-national locations where record annual averages occurred, we estimate that approximately 850 million people live in places that observed their locally warmest year during 2022.

The following chart provides a summary of the warming that countries experienced in 2022 relative their 1951 to 1980 averages.

These estimates for the changes in national annual average temperatures are derived from our global temperature fields. Due to uncertainties in the analysis and the limits of our spatial resolution some national average estimates may differ slightly from the values reported by their respective national weather agencies.

During 2023, Berkeley Earth will be launching an updated high resolution analysis which will improve our ability to characterize such local, regional, and national changes, and reduce uncertainties associated with topography and small-scale weather variability.

Temperatures in Europe

Western Europe was particularly noteworthy for extraordinary warmth in 2022, with many countries setting new national records, including, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom.

Governments in Europe attributed more than 26,000 deaths to summer heat waves, though this may be an underestimate as 53,000 excess deaths were reported in July alone. The summer heat waves included the first ever 40 °C (104 °F) day in the UK, a milestone that would be virtually impossible without global warming and was also met with an outbreak of wildfires.

The associated summer drought was one of the worst in Europe during the last 500 years. Warm weather in Europe continued all the way into winter, and has resulted in unusually low levels of snow in the Alps.

Considered as a whole, the European continent experienced it's second warmest year on record in 2022.

Weather station chart showing the July heat wave that ultimately pushed multiple UK weather stations above 40 °C for the first time since observations have begun, greatly exceeding previous measurements at this site and setting a new all-time record in the process.

Antarctic Heatwave

One of the most remarkable weather events in 2022 was the March heatwave impacting Antarctica.

An intrusion of an atmospheric river into the Antarctic plateau briefly pushed local temperatures at the manned Vostok station +38.5 °C (+69.3 °F) above normal for this time of year.

This is the largest temperature excursion above normal ever measured at any weather station anywhere on Earth.

Monthly Temperature Patterns

Every month in 2022 was at least 1.0 °C (1.8 °F) warmer than the 1850 to 1900 average. However, the first several months of the year were relatively cool compared to other recent years, partly due to the effects of La Niña. June was the only month in 2022 that set a record high average for the month. The relatively coldest month was November which ranked 13 th in 2022.

Long-term Trend

Though it is interesting to understand the characteristics of individual years, global warming is ultimately about the long-term evolution of Earth's climate. The following chart shows a ten-year moving average of the Earth's surface temperature, plotted relative to the average temperature from 1850-1900.

Since 1980, the overall trend is +0.19 °C/decade (+0.34 °F/decade) and has changed little during this period. By continuing this trend, we can make a rough guess of how the near-future climate may develop if the forces driving global warming continue to progress at their present rate.

As shown in the chart, several recent years have had temperatures more than 1.2 °C (2.2 °F) above the average temperature from 1850-1900, often used as an estimate of the pre-industrial climate. The Paris Agreement on Climate Change aims to keep global temperature rise to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) and encourages parties to strive for warming of no more than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). At the current rate of progression, the increase in Earth's long-term average temperature will reach 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above the 1850-1900 average by around 2034 and 2 °C (3.6 °F) will be reached around 2060. The increasing abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities is the direct cause of this recent global warming. If the Paris Agreement's goal of no more than 2 °C (3.6 °F) warming is to be reached, significant progress towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions needs to be made soon.

Global Mean Temperature Prediction for 2023

Based on historical variability and current conditions, it is possible to roughly estimate what global mean temperature might be expected in 2023. Our current estimate is that 2023 is likely to be similar to 2022 or slightly warmer. With the current continuation of La Niña conditions, it is likely that 2023 remains relatively cool. The swings from El Niño to La Niña and back again are the largest source of interannual variability in the global temperature record, with La Niña associated with cooler conditions. However, there remains a modest chance (14%) that 2023 could end up as a new warmest year if the El Niño / La Niña system swings back to warmth early in 2023.

It is nearly certain (>99% likelihood) that 2023 will remain within the top-ten warmest years; however, there is a ~50% chance that 2023 will rank no higher than the 5 th warmest year.

Though 2023 is expected to be somewhat cool, that does not mean that global warming has stopped. Like 2022, the central estimate for 2023 remains close to the long-term trend. Minor year-to-year fluctuations are entirely natural and may provide the world with a year of slightly less exceptional weather, but over the long-term temperatures are expected to continue along a warming trend as long as humans continue to add additional greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

A potential shift towards El Niño in mid-to-late 2023 would likely push 2024 towards record warmth.

Comparisons with Other Groups

When preparing our year-end reports, Berkeley Earth traditionally compares our global mean temperature analysis to the results of four other groups that also report global mean surface temperature. The following chart compares Berkeley Earth's analysis of global mean temperature to that of the NASA's GISTEMP, NOAA's GlobalTemp, the UK's HadCRUT, and ECMWF 's reanalysis. All of these groups produce a similar understanding of recent climate change. As of the time this document was being finalized, 2022 values for HadCRUT were not available.

While Berkeley Earth and ECMWF view 2022 as nominally the 5 th warmest year, NASA and NOAA place 2022 as nominally the 6 th warmest year. Given the tiny margin of difference between the 5 th and 6 th warmest years, we don't consider these differences between analysis groups to be significant.

Slight disagreements in the ranking are common and reflect both the uncertainty in these estimations and the differences in how various research programs look at the Earth. Each uses a somewhat different selection of source data and different methods of interpolation and correcting for measurement errors. Some methods are more limited than others. For example, NOAA omits most of the polar regions when estimating mean temperature changes. As a result, it is not surprising to see small disagreements among the groups.

Methodology

In reconstructing the changes in global mean temperature since 1850, Berkeley Earth has examined 21 million monthly-average temperature observations from 50,498 weather stations. Of these 18,460 stations and 168,000 monthly averages are available for 2022.

The weather station data is combined with sea surface temperature data from the UK Met Office's Hadley Centre (HadSST). This ocean data is based on 456 million measurements collected by ships and buoys, including 13 million observations obtained in 2022. We reprocess and interpolate the HadSST data to provide a more complete picture of the oceans. After combining the ocean data with our land data, we arrive at a global picture of climate change since 1850.

Uncertainties arise primarily from the incomplete spatial coverage of historical weather observations, from noise in measurement devices, and from biases introduced due to systematic changes in measurement technologies and methods. The total uncertainty is much less than the long-term changes in climate during the last 170 years.

This report is based on such weather observations as had been recorded into global archives as of early January 2022. It is common for additional observations to be added to archives after some delay. Consequently, temperature analysis calculations can be subject to revisions as new data becomes available. Such revisions are typically quite small and are considered unlikely to alter the qualitative conclusions presented in this report.

Copyright

This report was prepared by Berkeley Earth. The contents of this report, including all images may be reused under the terms of the Creative Commons BY-NC 4.0 copyright license for any non-commercial purpose and in any forum, consistent with the terms of that license.

Members of the news media may also use the materials in this report for any news reporting purpose provided that Berkeley Earth is properly acknowledged, without concern for whether or not the CC BY-NC 4.0 license is followed.

For more information about licensing for commercial purposes, please contact admin@berkeleyearth.org.

Data

Updated data files will appear at our data page, and are updated monthly.

In particular, monthly and annual time series are available.

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Global Temperature Report for 2022 - Berkeley Earth

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2022 was nominally the fifth warmest year on Earth since 1850. Slightly warmer than 2021, but likely still cooled by the ongoing La Niña.

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IDMC - 2021 Global Report on Internal Displacement

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IDMC - 2021 Global Report on Internal Displacement

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The GRID report is the official data repository on internal displacement. The GRID 2021 discusses specifically the relationship between climate change, disasters, and displacement.

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IDMC's Global Report on Internal Displacement is the official repository of data and analysis on internal displacement. This year's GRID discusses the relationship between climate change, disasters and displacement, and presents good practices from across the globe in advancing policy, displacement risk reduction and effective response.

Part 1: the data

Global internal displacement in 2020

In 2020, conflict and disasters triggered 40.5 million new internal displacements across 149 countries and territories.

Countries and territories with most new displacements in 2020You can interact with this infographic to see in-depth data

New displacements in 2020

Twenty five countries and territories with most new displacements in 2020You can interact with this infographic to see in-depth data

Displacement breakdown by conflict and disaster type

New displacements in 2020: Breakdown for conflict, violence and disasters

People living in displacement

There were 55 million internally displaced people across the world at the end of 2020, 48 million as a result of conflict and violence, and 7 million as a result of disasters.

A record 48 million people were living in internal displacement as a result of conflict and violence in 59 countries and territories as of 31 December 2020. This figure is the highest ever recorded.

People internally displaced by conflict and violence as of 31 December 2020 You can interact with this infographic to see in-depth data

At least 7 million people were internally displaced by disasters across 104 countries and territories as of 31 December 2020. This is only the second time we have compiled such a global figure, and it should be considered an underestimate.

People internally displaced by disasters as of 31 December 2020 You can interact with this infographic to see in-depth data

Social and economic impacts of displacement

More than 23 million people under the age of 18 were internally displaced worldwide, with significant impacts on their education. The global cost of one year of displacement was $20.5 billion in 2020. The figure includes the cost of providing people displaced by conflict and violence with support for their housing, education, health and security, and accounts for their loss of income.

Breakdown of IDPs by age group

Estimated number of people of different age groups living in internal displacement as a result of conflict, violence and disasters globally at the end of 2020

Regional overviews

Most new displacements triggered by conflict and violence in 2020 were recorded in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa. The majority took place in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria and Ethiopia, as in previous years.

Most new displacements triggered by disasters in 2020 were recorded in East Asia and the Pacific as well as South Asia. Tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and floods hit highly exposed areas that are home to millions of people.

Part 2

Internal displacement in a changing climate

Persistent misconceptions surround disaster displacement, with serious implications for people, policy and responses. These misconceptions include, for example, that disaster displacement is short-term, when in reality it often becomes protracted. The role that climate change plays in driving disaster displacement is also often seen as a direct one. However, not all weather-related disasters and their associated displacement are directly related to climate change.

New displacements by disasters: breakdown by hazards (2008-2020)

There have been significant advances in the development of national and regional policies on disaster displacement and climate-related migration, and global attention on the issue is growing. A number of countries now recognise it as an issue of national and global priority. Implementation, and assessing progress in doing so, are the next priorities.

Filling the data gaps on displacement associated with disasters and climate change is essential if we are to understand how the phenomenon impedes progress on achieving the sustainable development agenda.

Special feature: Impacts of Covid-19 on internal displacement

The Covid-19 pandemic heightened IDPs' needs and generated new risks in 2020, while creating significant operational and financial challenges for governments and their humanitarian partners. Special feature: Impacts of Covid-19 on internal displacement→

In their own words

Alexandra Bilak, Director, IDMC

Jan Egeland, Secretary general, NRC

Niels Annen, Minister of State, German Federal Foreign Office

Raouf Mazou, Assistant Secretary-General, UNHCR

Saleemul Huq, Director, ICCAD

Download

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2021 Global Report on Internal Displacement

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The world's most trusted source of data and analysis on the risk, scale and impacts of internal displacement.

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World Bank - Groundswell Part 2 : Acting on Internal Climate Migration

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World Bank - Groundswell Part 2 : Acting on Internal Climate Migration

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This sequel to the Groundswell report includes projections and analysis of internal climate migration for three new regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Qualitative analyses of climate-related mobility in countries of the Mashreq and in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are also provided. This new report builds on the scenario-based modeling approach of the previous Groundswell report from 2018, which covered Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. The two reports’ combined findings provide, for the first time, a global picture of the potential scale of internal climate migration across the six regions, allowing for a better understanding of how slow-onset climate change impacts, population dynamics, and development contexts shape mobility trends.

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Groundswell Part 2 : Acting on Internal Climate Migration

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This sequel to the Groundswell report includes projections and analysis of internal climate migration for three new regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Qualitative analyses of climate-related mobility in countries of the Mashreq and in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are also provided.

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IFRC - Displacement in a changing climate

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IFRC - Displacement in a changing climate

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This report presents a collection of case studies of how Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies worldwide are protecting and assisting communities in the context of climate-related displacement. And it calls for more ambitious climate action and investment in local communities and local organizations to address this urgent humanitarian challenge.

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IFRC - Responding to Disasters and Displacement in a Changing Climate

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IFRC - Responding to Disasters and Displacement in a Changing Climate

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This report analyses climate-related displacement as well as a post-earthquake response across eight countries, examining response by National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies in coordination with governments and other agencies. The research finds that displacement disproportionately affects already marginalised and at-risk groups including women, children, the elderly, people with a disability, migrants and refugees.

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Boats and boating--Equipment and supplies

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Changing Climate, Changing Migration- "When Climate Change Comes to Refugee Settings"

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Changing Climate, Changing Migration- "When Climate Change Comes to Refugee Settings"

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Environmental disasters can force people out of their homes and communities, complicating responses to ongoing humanitarian protection efforts. As a result, many humanitarian organizations have started paying attention to the impacts of climate change for multiple aspects of their refugee protection work. For this episode, the executive director of Jesuit Refugee Service/USA speaks about how natural disasters and other environmental harms affect her organization’s work and its faith-based mission.

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When Climate Change Comes to Refugee Settings

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Environmental disasters can force people out of their homes and communities, complicating responses to ongoing humanitarian protection efforts. As a result, many humanitarian organizations have started paying attention to the impacts of climate change for ...

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World Bank - The Human Toll of Climate Change: Taking Action on Internal Climate Migration

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World Bank - The Human Toll of Climate Change: Taking Action on Internal Climate Migration

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Climate change is increasingly driving migration and could lead 216 million people around the world to move within their countries by 2050. People will migrate because of water scarcity, declining crop productivity, and sea-level rise. But with collective action on climate and development, internal climate migration could be reduced by as much as 80%. The World Bank’s updated Groundswell report provides a series of policy recommendations that can help slow the factors driving climate migration and prepare for expected migration flows.

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The Human Toll of Climate Change: Taking Action on Internal Climate Migration

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Mary Robinson - Why climate change is a threat to human rights (2015): Former President of Ireland & founder of Mary Robinson Climate Justice Foundation talks about her journey to climate justice. She uses examples of displacement in the climate change-affected communities & points at the complementarities between sustainable development and green future.

Colette Pichon Battle - Climate change will displace millions. Here's how we prepare (2019): A talk by climate activist and lawyer, founder of Taproot Earth, about the dangers of the 'climate refugee' terminology misuse, the climate gentrification phenomenon, and the necessary urban planning & policy action for climate migration.

Susan Ruffo - The ocean's ingenious climate solutions (2019): From storing carbon to providing protection to coastal communities, Susan Ruffo highlights the ocean's ready-made solutions to the climate crisis and asks: With more than eighty percent of the ocean still unexplored, what new solutions are waiting to be discovered?

Angelica De Vito - Climate Change and displacement - TEDxBassanoDelGrappa (2022): Angelica De Vito's commitment is to raise awareness of how man and nature are the result of their environment. This is why there is a strong correlation between mass migration and climate change.

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Get a daily email featuring the latest talk, plus a quick mix of trending content.

By subscribing, you understand and agree that we will store, process and manage your personal information according to our Privacy Policy

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Get a daily email featuring the latest talk, plus a quick mix of trending content. By subscribing, you understand and agree that we will store, process and manage your personal information according to our Privacy Policy

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Université de Neuchâtel - Climig Database 

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Université de Neuchâtel - Climig Database 

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Compiled at the Institute of Geography at the University of Neuchâtel (Switzerland), the CliMig bibliographic database is the first comprehensive collection of resources specifically concentrating on migration, the environment and climate change. The project consists of a fully searchable version of the bibliography on the web that is continuously updated with new publications.

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Climig | The migration, climate change and the environment database

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A dedicated site for researchers on the topic of climate change and migration

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Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC)

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UNICEF - Children Displaced in a Changing Climate

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UNICEF - Children Displaced in a Changing Climate

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The report analyses the most common weather-related hazards that lead to the largest number of displacements: floods, storms, droughts, and wildfires. It notes that 43.1 million internal displacements of children were linked to weather-related disasters over a six-year period – equivalent to approximately 20,000 child displacements per day. Almost all – 95 percent – of recorded child displacements were driven by floods and storms.

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World Bank - World Development Report 2023

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World Bank - World Development Report 2023

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The World Development Report 2023 proposes an integrated framework to maximize the development impacts of cross-border movements on both destination and origin countries and on migrants and refugees themselves.

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"The priestly leaders of the Parsis were brought before the local ruler, Jadhav Rana, who presented them with a vessel full of milk to signify that the surrounding lands could not possibly accommodate any more people. The Parsi head priest responded by slipping some sugar into the milk to signify how the strangers would enrich the local community without displacing them. They would dissolve into life like sugar dissolves in the milk, sweetening the society but not unsettling it. The ruler responded to the eloquent image and granted the exiles land and permission to practice their religion unhindered if they would respect local customs, and learn the local language, Gujarati."

-Parsi Legend

________________

About

Migration is a development challenge. About 184 million people-2.3 percent of the world's population-live outside of their country of nationality. Almost half of them are in low- and middle-income countries. But what lies ahead?

As the world struggles to cope with global economic imbalances, diverging demographic trends, and climate change, migration will become a necessity in the decades to come for countries at all levels of income. If managed well, migration can be a force for prosperity and can help achieve the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.

World Development Report 2023 proposes an integrated framework to maximize the development impacts of cross-border movements on both destination and origin countries and on migrants and refugees themselves. The framework it offers, drawn from labor economics and international law, rests on a "match and motive" matrix that focuses on two factors: how closely migrants' skills and attributes match the needs of destination countries and what motives underlie their movements. This approach enables policy makers to distinguish between different types of movements and to design migration policies for each. International cooperation will be critical to the effective management of migration.

Main Messages

Focus on people who live outside their country of nationality. The main difference between a migrant and a non-migrant is citizenship (or lack thereof) of the destination country and its associated rights. Once a migrant is naturalized, they no longer are a migrant: they face the same challenges and opportunities as other citizens-albeit in some cases with the added difficulties encountered by national minorities.

Recognize the complexity and the increasing necessity of cross-border movements. About 2.3 percent of the world's population-184 million people, including 37 million refugees-live outside their country of nationality. Some 43 percent live in low- and middle-income countries. Many countries, at all income levels, are both the origin and destination of migrants at the same time. Because of demographic divergences and climate change, migration will become increasingly necessary over the next decades for countries at all income levels.

Distinguish between various types of movements to identify appropriate policy responses. How well migrants' skills and attributes match the needs of destination countries largely determines the economic effects of their movements. The motives underlying movements determine destination countries' obligations under international law.

Maximize net gains when people bring skills and attributes that strongly match the needs of their destination society-for them, their countries of destination, and their countries of origin.

Provide international protection to refuges in a manner that can be sustained, financially and socially-because most refugee situations last many years.

Reduce the need for distressed movements, while respecting migrants' human rights and dignity-and recognize development's key role in this effort.

Manage migration strategically- in both origin and destination countries. Governments in origin countries should make labor migration an explicit part of their development strategy, while governments in destination countries should use "strong match" migration to meet their labor needs.

Manage cross-border movements differently. Use bilateral cooperation to strengthen the match of migrants' skills and attributes with the needs of destination economies. Organize regional and global responses to address refugee movements and reduce the need for distressed movements. Develop new and predictable financing instruments. And listen to voices that are currently underrepresented in many policy debates.

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World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees, and Societies

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World Development Report 2023 proposes an integrated framework to maximize the development impacts of cross-border movements on both destination and origin countries and on migrants and refugees themselves.

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Platform on Disaster Displacement - Resources

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Platform on Disaster Displacement - Resources

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This section presents some of the leading research, laws and policies addressing displacement, disasters and climate change, as well as the relationship between disasters, climate change and human mobility more generally.

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The predecessor of the Platform on Disaster Displacement - the Nansen Initiative consultation process - has repeatedly identified the need to develop new and innovative tools to generate better data, research and analysis on cross-border disaster displacement. Understanding of the complex causes, dynamics and magnitude of disaster displacement continues to grow. This section presents some of the leading research, laws and policies addressing displacement, disasters and climate change, as well as the relationship between disasters, climate change and human mobility more generally.

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The predecessor of the Platform on Disaster Displacement - the Nansen Initiative consultation process - has repeatedly identified the need to develop new and in