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People have been indifferent to politics

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People have been indifferent to politics

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Smurf village

Culture n identity crisis

Leveraging their position while they are still number 1

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Joe Biden's leadership did not instill confidence, resulting in middle east crisis and Ukraine war.

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Joe Biden's leadership did not instill confidence, resulting in middle east crisis and Ukraine war.

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Trump comes back with a vengence, to create jobs for US and Corporate taxes/ revenus for trump

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Trump comes back with a vengence, to create jobs for US and Corporate taxes/ revenus for trump

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Trump wants a U.S. centric policy

job security (losing manufacturing jobs)

Reduce trade surplus

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Donald Trump, revenue for USA.

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Increased competition for "common resources" (both hard - Jobs, $$$, and soft - influence/power) driven by perceived inequalities

Increased unhappiness, hence the need for governments to take more drastic and harsher approaches to be seen as decisive (to gain votes)

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1. Power

2. US conflict with China

3. Raise Revenue to reduce debts

4. Donald Trump - Russian Spy

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Economic powerhouses value cash more. Supply and demand. Building a value chain. Competition to become the global superpower.

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Power struggle between US and China that started during Trump's 1st term, when American's were umhappy with rise of China

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Power struggle between US and China that started during Trump's 1st term, when American's were umhappy with rise of China

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1) US wants to remain as #1

2) US wants to bring back manufacturing

3) US wants to go back to the good old days

4) China (in terms of South China Sea)

Resources, etc

5) Why is Canada considering the F35 repurchase?

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Protectionism. Cost of living, inflation. US wants to be the top country. For its own self interest, make many good deals for oneself. Tussle for power, aiming for being the biggest market.

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It looks like the countries in the world are heading towards protectionism, inward looking and away from globalisation.

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It looks like the countries in the world are heading towards protectionism, inward looking and away from globalisation.

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1st: Why is this happening?

The Trump administration is voted into power to Make America Great Again. The voters do not want to give up their world standing and way of life to China who is touted to take over world dominance.

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Globalization and rise of social media, leading to increased interconnectedness of the world

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Trump wants to make US great again amd bring production back to US.

China wants to have apresence in every country. Wants to be super power. Start one belt one road

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Trade Tariffs - Some sectors might benefit? We might benefit from others being slapped higher tariffs? Some trade may also flow into Singapore instead of other countries

Overall nett effect might be greater uncertainty, which will results in slower growth overall given the increased fear.

Singapore, while just a price taker, will also need to dynamically adjust based on global trajectories.

Every crisis will lead to opportunities as well. Perhaps it will drive people to innovate in new sectors to reduce risk?

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Thrown off balAnce

Don’t know who is friends

Reduces trade

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Discontent with Democratic Party. Trump’s vengeance against his old enemies. Bring jobs back to America. Rise of China. They want to make America great again.

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As a country without natural resources, Singapore has to protect herself from other countries. Diplomacy and deterrence are key

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Confusion in the market. Growth will fall.

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Singapore may actually have a rate opportunity as the country with the lowest tarrif in comparison

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Singapore may actually have a rate opportunity as the country with the lowest tarrif in comparison

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Consumers will pay the price at the end of the day.

SG economy is most exposed to global growth. Gdp forecasts will be downgraded.

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Trade war: USA is threatened by China

Rivalry between USA and China the two biggest markets

Donald trump as the leader wants to solve the USA deficit problem and stop earnings of the rest of the world ?

This throws the world and the economy into disarray

Bigger countries will fight back

Singapore will be affected although we only get 10% tariffs

If the USA and China don’t trade , trade will not flow or pass through us .

Shipping will be affected in Singapore

Technological aspect? Micro chips might be affected batteries and Ai ; America wants to change ?

Implication for Singapore : will be accused on importing chips to other countries want

Implications : most markets stay within the country . And then there will be controlled or limited sharing of items/ resources / information. Especially when things come to a standstill

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1) Economy / GDP / Livelihood will be impacted

2) NVIDIA case - implicated even when it is not our fault

3) May be forced to choose sides

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US has become "soft " over the years, and they voted for a strong leader to turn things around and now that he is elected. He is trying to make good of his election promises to MAGA.

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US has become "soft " over the years, and they voted for a strong leader to turn things around and now that he is elected. He is trying to make good of his election promises to MAGA.

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1. Uncertain - Trade wil be affected

Market

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Uncertainty in certain sectors (eg manufacturing) might lead to a generational pivot away from such jobs, towards certain sectors (energy, IT services etc.). Good for Singapore?

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Our export become expensive.

We are tier 2 in terms of technology export from US.

Affect our overall technology investor investment

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Demand of foreign goods reduced in America. Will affect Singapore’s economy and world economy.

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Things are more expensive. Our economy is based on the exports/imports from other countries. Loss of jobs maybe, higher prices, lesser demand for our services if other countries don’t want to invest in us. Need to consider our global position when making policy (loss of independent decision making). 

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Things are more expensive. Our economy is based on the exports/imports from other countries. Loss of jobs maybe, higher prices, lesser demand for our services if other countries don’t want to invest in us. Need to consider our global position when making policy (loss of independent decision making). 

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Inflation forces

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Creation of new market, continue to strengthen foreign relationships with other countries.

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Trade tariffs affect Singapore economy ? Lack of trade flowing through

Technological advances and sharing between countries

Standstill of lack of trade between countries or eventually having to take sides ? Balance between the sides .

Can we use the reduced tariffs in Singapore to our advantage ? How to balance between using to our advantage and abusing it

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Strengthen ASEAN

Improve sg attractiveness for talent

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Govt has done well to develop finance, Mice, f&b industry. That required good foresight. We have to identify the next growth industry and continue to be relevant to the world.

Has the Govt identified potential directions to point us to?

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Expect a lot of bumpiness.

Unity and cohesion will hold Singaporeans together.

Job security will be at risk, cost of living will rise with the tariffs.

Will the ASEAN member countries hold together in the face of tariffs?

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Changing economic power driving the changes, Chinas amassing of geopolitical power is instrumental in 1) securing interests and maintaining internal power within the party. Unstable political conditions caused by leaders, US trying to reposition themselves and withdraw from the role of global policeman to look inwards.

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Singapore is navigating a complex geopolitical landscape in 2025, shaped by global trade tensions, U.S.-China competition, and regional instability. These dynamics present both challenges and opportunities for the nation.

Key Impacts on Singapore:

• Trade and Economy: Rising U.S.-China tensions and protectionist policies, such as new tariffs under President Trump, could disrupt global trade. However, Singapore’s strategic position as a neutral hub and its proximity to ASEAN growth centers make it an attractive location for diversified production and trade flows. Growth is projected at 1-3%, slowed by global uncertainties but supported by trade-related services and manufacturing.

• Foreign Policy: Balancing relations with major powers remains critical. Singapore must carefully manage its ties with the U.S. and China while addressing regional issues like South China Sea disputes. Domestic political shifts and rising foreign interference could further complicate foreign policy decisions.

• Energy and Supply Chains: The Ukraine war and Middle East tensions have increased energy costs and supply chain vulnerabilities. Singapore’s reliance on global trade makes it sensitive to these disruptions.

• Social Cohesion: Geopolitical conflicts, such as the Israel-Gaza war, could strain Singapore’s multicultural society. Rising political scrutiny at home may also affect governance and policy continuity.

Despite these challenges, Singapore’s adaptability and strong diplomatic stance position it to leverage opportunities in a fragmented global order.

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SG may be forced to choose sides between US and China

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SG may be forced to choose sides between US and China

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On tariffs:

- stiff competition, especially from china.- pre-WW2, inwards, but post, has become more outward. Protectionist policies

- increase tariffs for the local domestic market, sell American goods. Buying foreign cars vs American cars due to comparable quality and better price.

- trump's actions are result of his backers, lobbyists. Lobbyists interests are to attract local investment

- republican supporters are blue collared workers, manufacturing, hence he is pandering towards bringing manufacturing back.

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Find new markets, stay relevant and stay united with like minded countries (Asean)

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In the short term, trade will be reduced globally and this would possibly reduce the relevancy of Singapore in terms of a trade hub.

In the long term, if the US does not renegotiate the tariffs, they may actually hasten the loss in trust in the US and the USD. It opens the way for a multi polar world.

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2. Open Market - Value added

3. Stay Relevant

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Be calm, working based on our principles. Embrace the changes. Continue to find good opportunities.

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Group 4: Trump may be accelerating China's rise, by driving Europe to trade more with China

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Group 4: Trump may be accelerating China's rise, by driving Europe to trade more with China

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Are there ways to further promote Singapore as a 'safe haven'?

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Are there ways to further promote Singapore as a 'safe haven'?

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1. Stay low. Be glad for pur strengths. Look ahead and plan carefully like we always do :)

2. Find opportunities during crisis. Diversify to hedge against over exposure to certain risks.

3. Continue to build bridges! Especially as an open economy (build our welcoming brand, welcome business as a gateway for US/ASEAN and vice versa) - eg HK's precadiment led to businesses flowing to SG

4. Maintain our relevance to the world and global powers (but how exactly? Sector specific measures? Continue to be proactive and find niche for SG to excel)

5. Constanly communicate and assure Singaporeans!

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Tariffs:

SG is a net importer of goods, will not affect us to a large negative extent. However, If all countries follow suit and trend is set that agreements are no longer respected, we will move towards a space where countries no longer trust in agreements.

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Expand new market with other countries. Reduce reliance in America’s market. Increase Singapore’s productivity.

Work closer with BRICS. 😅

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Group 4: debate in our group about whether Trump's tariffs will be a nett positive or a nett negative for Singapore

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Group 4: debate in our group about whether Trump's tariffs will be a nett positive or a nett negative for Singapore

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- We will not impose reciprocal actions, but engage diplomatically to show that we have a trade surplus, hence the "reciprocal tariffs" are not justified

- bolster our ties with other countries diplomatically to reduce our reliance on US both on trade and defence since we have seen that US can no longer be reliably trusted as the voice of reason

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We got tax advantages due to a relatively lower additonal taxes. We can pick what sectors we want to invest and capitalise to benefit from the uncertainties

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We got tax advantages due to a relatively lower additonal taxes. We can pick what sectors we want to invest and capitalise to benefit from the uncertainties

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Negotiate with Trump. Build resilience, innovate. New regional supply chains. Attract more investments. Don’t get into the chaos and focus on the future. 

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Negotiate with Trump. Build resilience, innovate. New regional supply chains. Attract more investments. Don’t get into the chaos and focus on the future. 

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Singapore can respond to current global geopolitical complexities and tensions by leveraging its strategic strengths and adopting a multifaceted approach:

Economic Strategies

• Diversification: Singapore should continue diversifying its economy, focusing on sectors like electronics, ICT, and finance, which are resilient to global uncertainties.

• Trade Agreements: Strengthening free trade agreements and regional cooperation within ASEAN can help mitigate risks from protectionist policies.

• Semiconductor Leadership: Capitalizing on its role in the semiconductor supply chain to support AI and consumer electronics growth.

Diplomatic Neutrality

• Strategic Neutrality: Maintaining balanced relations with major powers like the US and China ensures Singapore remains a trusted partner amid geopolitical tensions.

• Global Advocacy: Advocating for small states through platforms like the Forum of Small States (FOSS) enhances its influence in international governance.

Security Measures

• Cybersecurity: Investing in robust cybersecurity infrastructure to counter increasing cyber warfare risks.

• Defense Capabilities: Building credible defense forces to ensure national security amidst regional instability.

Innovation and Sustainability

• Biotech and AI: Developing leadership in emerging fields like biotechnology and artificial intelligence strengthens economic competitiveness.

• Green Economy: Promoting green initiatives aligns with global decarbonization efforts while reducing reliance on volatile energy markets.

By balancing pragmatism, innovation, and diplomacy, Singapore can navigate geopolitical challenges while sustaining growth and stability.

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Rules based global order is going to be shaken. Precedents about international trade and security are being torn down

Isolationism and protectionism are trends that are going to be on the rise. Grave concerns about the loss of jobs and possibly even an economic recession. Companies shifting supply chains towards their country

Security and small nations, regarding the risk that invasion is imminent or on the horizon. Singapore will have to bolster its security

Escalation of racist rhetoric perpetuated by Trump. Radicalisation has been on the rise with the advent of free speech.

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Double down on relationships with other countries

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Double down on relationships with other countries

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Singaporeans have to be resilient in handling the short term pain.

In the long term, we need to double down in deepening our relationships with other countries, including the US. As the world turns multi polar, it is more important than ever for us to be a channel for communication. And we can only do this with trust from other countries.

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We should maintain neutral stance when caught between China and USA.

Invest further on our international trade hubs status.

Upskill our workers to attract investment into Singapore. We have the minimum tariff rate slapped on us so we are more attractive to international businesses now.

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We cannot afford to offend , we need to be friendly.

We continue to work hard to brand ourselves as efficient , good governance , safe , country.

Strike win win situation / collaboration projects at government level with both US, China and other countries.

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1) Be calm

2) Continue to be neutral

3) Monitor situation closely

4) Respond intelligently, don't retaliate mindlessly

5) Rule based trade with other countries minus US

6) Continue to maintain friendly relationship with US

7) Increase trade other countries

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Make friends with everyone stay neutral ,we need to be to wise.

more cdc ? For inflation ?

Individually ? How can we respond ?

Is it just wait and see , how can we prepare in the meantime ?

In difficult times we might have to watch out for each other and help each other along the way .

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Government can give more reassurance to people, communications. We must educate and upskill, and maintain a cool head. Singaporeans are opportunistic and can seize the ability to cultivate trust. Also try to keep the free trade going. What is within the governments ability is to strengthen. The relationship with east Asia can be further curtailed. Singaporean’s must also be aware and fully cognisant of the country’s vulnerability

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1. Emotions, ego, incompetence, miscalculation -> Trump's tariffs may backfire, Putin's invasion did not succeed in one week, contrary to expectations

2. Americans have a hard time swallowing that they may lose their spot as "world number 1"

3. Covid-19 shocked many countries, made them more hesitant to trade so widely, so they may want to friendshore instead of globalise

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Look at things from SG perspectives and pick our battles to fight

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Look at things from SG perspectives and pick our battles to fight

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A: Situation didn't start from Trump, but countries like Russia exert influence, as well as China in South China Sea, things became vocal under Trump.

B: World economy and countries are progressing. Companies like Meta progress a lot, so humans feel useless when there's tech. So when jobs taken away, nervous and Govts need to show how they are strong. Eg is China trying to take over Taiwan due to it being "part of China". Tech, they feel unsecure, but with military, they feel more secure. That's why with power, they feel more protected. On US vs China, the blue workers are more respected, have protections, quite independent. So Trump tries to build a fantasy, that he's pro-crypto. Overpromised, and now in debt. That's how politicians control narrative. Another way is using AI for control.

C: People feel left behind, so they would use tariffs to show they are doing something, but its counterintuitive. Reason for Taiwan, Ukraine and Gaza wars are attributed to leaders trying to act powerful.

D: Its about Nationalism. Boundaries being enforced, so countries are protecting themselves, so tariffs used. But agrees with C that its counterintuitive.

E: Same as D. For us, we are small and don't have resources, so won't have a position. But larger countries have lots of resources, so they can use tech and military to get powerful.

D: Talked abt protecting oneself first on aircraft as analogy.

E and D were saying abt FTA on SG but still tariffed. Participants also talked about Russia getting no tariff, but actually have at 10%. Went to F, where falsehoods are one of the factors, then C said about manosphere and farright threats, citing the recent ISD arrest of a farright guy.

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On 2nd and 3rd q, we talked about how we're not spared, and how imports are 3 times of exports. And how it seems unfair that even with division of deficit with trade value, may seem unfair on poor.

We talked about Malaysia having 48% tariffs, and how US may do this cos of covering debt.

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Talked about tech and how we should make friends with every country, dont offend everyone. And we can be a hub for transshipment, so that ships can escape tariffs. But Mexico route from China via Mex to US slapped with tariffs, and yea.

On US, we were not being treated kindly, so why not China instead of US? China also does things for their benefit. And in SG, we make friends with everyone, but we stand on principles, like opposing Russia on Ukraine invasion, or saying that Israel acts in Gaza is wrong. Or we support no one. We need to be careful. And allies are disappointed. Need to have some sort of fairness, to know needs and wants. And about how US is protecting their interests.