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Title : Climate change effects on amphibians and reptiles across biogeographical realms and latitude

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Title : Climate change effects on amphibians and reptiles across biogeographical realms and latitude

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Author1: Niovi Chatzinikolaou
Author2: Martin Nielsen, Denmark, University of Copenhagen
Author3: Mishkat Ullah, Pakistan Museum of Natural History, Islamabad-PAKISTAN
Author4: Sofia Chronopoulou, General Secretariat for Lifelong Learning, Athens, Greece
Author5: Francesca Graziani, Associazione culturale Tethys (Florence, Italy)
Author6: Ismini Gkourtsouli-Antoniadou, Graduate of University of Athens
Author7: Georgios Stamatopoulos
Author8: Mariana Tsianou, Department of Ecology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece

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In this report we attempt to assess how climate change affects the herpetofauna of four different countries (Denmark, Greece, Italy and Pakistan). We have used a number of studies mainly at regional scale but also a few from a macroecological perspective of view to report how climate change affects amphibians and reptiles in these four countries. Amphibians and reptiles have been shown to be negatively affected from climate change which according to most studies it does not act alone but synergistically with other pressures such as land use and pathogen diseases (e.g. chytridiomycosis). Climate change will affect species’ distribution (e.g. species moving in northern parts of the countries, species which will be seriously affected because are restricted to their movement e.g. reptiles or amphibian species which might be extinct due to intensive aridity as they live in ponds and other micro-habitats that might be lost due to temperature increase). Furthermore, climate change will affect species’ physiology and reproductive modes (e.g. changes sex ratio in sea turtles has been changed or increased juvenile mortality in land turtles due to climate change). Climate change has been identified as a serious threat for herpetofauna across the globe. As such, the realization that prioritization of conservation efforts needs to be based on knowledge of the spatial distribution both of the different key threats and of biodiversity.

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How does climate change affect the amphibians and reptiles in your HerpetoArea? Analyse any threats or advantages climate change might bring for the amphibians and reptiles of your HerpetoArea. Consider the presence of invasive species, ecological changes, physiological consequences,etc

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Reference: https://media1.giphy.com/media/14clsi3HPEjKDe/source.gif

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Anthropogenic climate change will increase mean global temperatures by more than 4°C (Collins et al., 2013). This change will probably have severe impacts on many species abilities to withstand the intensity of changes (Diffenbaugh et al., 2013). Species based climate change studies are necessary to understand how it affect species’ distribution (e.g. Araújo et al., 2006) or species’ physiology (Parmesan, 2006) to minimize further effects and to take initiatives for conservation actions. which will enable species to cope with changing climates. Species adaptability response depend on their exposure to climatic extremes and sensitivity (Huey et al., 2012; Pacifici et al., 2015). Climate change can affect species both directly (e.g. by causing heat stress or desiccation) and indirectly (e.g. by influencing food availability) (Lawler et al., 2010).

Amphibians and reptiles, being ectothermic species, are strongly connected with their environment. Therefore, they are more directly affected by climatic conditions alternations because of their body temperature depends on the surrounding temperatures (Ockendon et al., 2014). Climate change and global warming are  believed to influence on herps behavior such as offspring sex-ratio (Mazaris et al., 2008), spawning events, activity periods and breeding seasons to name a few (Walther et al., 2002). Although direct evidence between climate change and herpetofauna populations declines has been sparse (Carey & Alexander, 2003). A very large proportion of amphibian species have been identified as particularly vulnerable to .change (Foden et al., 2013) and both amphibian and reptile species will undoubtedly be affected by the occurring climate changes.  Both groups are declining worldwide (IUCN, 2008) and these declines have been partly attributed to climate change (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Huey et al., 2010). However, recent studies reported that among the highest importance threats are anthropogenic land-use changes, leading to habitat destruction and fragmentation, and the fatal disease chytridiomycosis (chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). Climate change is also an important threat, might interact with chytridiomycosis, environmental pollution, direct exploitation for food, medicine and pet trade, increase in ultraviolet-B irradiation due to anthropogenic ozone depletion, and the spread of invasive species (Blaustein & Kiesecker, 2005; Hof et al., 2011).

Here we specifically investigate how climate change affect amphibian and reptile species in three countries: Denmark, Greece, Italy and Pakistan. Three countries (Denmark, Greece, Italy) belong to Palearctic biogeographical realm (Olson et al., 2001) while Pakistan belongs to Indo-Malayan biogeographic realm (Fig.1). Also, the latitudinal zone, the climate and land use history of the three countries is different. Thus, we expect differences on how climate change affects herpetofauna in the three countries. In this report, we analyze the threats and potential benefits that climate changes might provide and look into invasive species, ecological changes and more.

Fig. 1 Biogeographical realms of the world (Olson et al., 2011)

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As temperature rises species will tend to move northwards (or southwards in the southern hemisphere) to stay within their temperature optimum (Bradshaw & Holzapfel, 2006) and reptiles in Spain has for example been shown to have changed their distribution northward (Moreno-Rueda et al., 2012). Geographic barriers that hinder movement are therefore very important and in Europe it is believed that 98% of the reptile species will go extinct or undergo range retraction if they are restricted in their movement (Araújo et al., 2006). The large area of intensely farmed land in Denmark might be a pronounced barrier for the amphibian and reptile species which need to shift their distribution because of climate change and will likely hinder it completely. This will pose a serious threat for the Danish species. Some species having their Northern distribution edge in Denmark e.g. Alpine Newt (Ichthyosaura alpestris) and European Green Toad (Pseudepidalea viridis) might experience a population increase as temperatures rises and become more favorable while species found in southern Denmark like the Aesculapian snake (Zamenis longissimus) may also move northward and cross the Danish border.

In Greece and Italy, the most frequent response of amphibian and reptile species appears to be the displacement of the distribution according to their ecological requirements. For example, several species might be distributed to northern areas where temperatures that are more suitable will prevail. We expect populations with limited range and / or limited dispersal potential to disappear while other species are expected to be favored from the new climatic conditions settle new areas. The degree of habitat fragmentation, particularly in aquatic environments, is particularly critical for the existence of migratory pathways suitable for amphibian dispersal and therefore is a necessary information for the assessment of vulnerability of all species as well as for the development of conservation plans in the light of the scenarios climate change (Adamopoulou, 2018).

In Pakistan, Mr. Rafaqat Masroor, Associate Curator (Herpetology), Pakistan Museum of Natural History was consulted for his expert opinion in this regard. He concluded that: “Reptiles like different gekko genera i.e., Cyrtodactylus, Cyrtopodion (Ground Gekkos), Alsophylax, Mesodactylus (Stone Geckos), Tenuidactylus (Standstone Gekkos) residing in restricted habitats. Thus, average temperatures variation will cause shift species ranges and distributional limits. Temperature may strongly influence amphibian species geographic distribution, so the species’ distribution limits are determined by the extreme temperatures. As a result, species with broad tolerance to thermal regimens should be able to expand their ranges and then colonize new habitats. Although Pakistan endemic and habitat specific species like Nanorana vicina (Murree Hill Frog), Bufo pseudoraddei baturae (Batura Glacier Green Toad) and Scutiger occidentalis (Deosai Toad) populations will be strongly affected by temperature regime shifting. Climate change will cause species migration to higher altitudes and subsequently leads to habitat shrinkage or loss and distribution. It will also effect on their emergence and reproduction in their habitats.

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Climate change and extreme weather conditions

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Climate change and extreme weather conditions

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The effect of climate changes in Denmark are thought to be increased temperatures, increased precipitation (especially in winter) and rising sea levels. Further do we expect more extreme weather as a consequence of climate changes (Olesen et al., 2014). Increased precipitation may help provide additional habitats for amphibians in the future. But extreme weather situations can prove a fatal challenge for both amphibians and reptiles. Thus, in 2018, Denmark experienced one of the worst summer droughts in its history and many animals have likely suffered during this period.

Following this pattern, Greece being a Mediterranean country faces the problem of increased desertification, with its islands being listed as areas of high desertification risk. The islands of the Aegean, areas with intense relief and low vegetation cover face major confrontations. The impacts of these specific changes are expected to influence significantly biodiversity, composition and functionality of ecosystems, soil structure, water reserves and island landscape. The predictions for the island ecosystems are particularly ominous, since climate change is expected to sharpen further the environmental problems already derived from the abandonment of traditional land uses (i.e. cultivation of terraces). These problems include soil erosion and loss of fertile land, as well as increased flammability of vegetation and subsequently high fire risk. The natural island environment will also be subjected to negative impacts, e.g. increase in ecosystem susceptibility and reduction of abundance of species and biodiversity (Karamanos and Voloudakis, 2011). A recent census of the wetlands in the Aegean islands from WWF Hellas recorded 352 wetlands in 51 islands and islets in Aegean apart from Crete, of many types and rich in biodiversity (Vella et al., 2011). The islands of the Aegean Sea host numerous herpetological species (reptiles and amphibians), from highly venomous vipers to the very rare Mediterranean common chameleons (Archipelagos). The wetlands of these islands are key habitats for the conservation of the populations of several hundreds of wetland-dependent vertebrate such as the amphibians: Rana ridibunda, R. cerigensis (endemic to Karpathos), Bufo bufo, Bufo viridis, Hyla arborea; and the reptiles: Mauremys rivulata, Emys orbicularis, Natrix natrix, N. tesselata (Catsadorakis et al., 2007). As such, extreme weather conditions such as increased aridity and desertification will negatively affect micro-habitats especially ponds and isolated biotopes and thus herpetofauna. Lyciasalamandra helverseni which is endemic to three Aegean islands: Karpathos, Saria, and Kasos. exhibit significant local isolations and high degree of inbreeding, mostly due to extensive degradation and habitat destruction, climatic alterations and human activities. As a result, the species is classified as Near Threatened, but on the island of Kasos it is considered as Critically Endangered (Lymberakis et al., 2009).

In Italy also the main problem is the drought that seriously affect fresh water and alter habitats. Increasingly often draught events take place in the country, and this is a damage for temporary waters that are reproductive sites for amphibians such as tree frogs (genus Hyla) and the emerald toads (genus Bufo) (Stoch and Naselli-Flores, 2014). or the reptiles of the genus Emys (marsh turtles present in Italy with two species and various subspecies) which can use the temporary waters as reproductive sites. In all these cases, species survival is often guaranteed by metapopulations, which occupy not one but a series of small neighboring basins; species that inhabit ponds isolated or peripheral are generally more in danger of extinction (Stoch & Naselli-Flores, 2014).

Pakistan climate is mostly arid subtropical with few rains. In climate change scenario there is considerable variation in the timing of receding of glaciers, which resulted in changing duration and intensity of the monsoon precipitation. This is especially threatening because Indus Basin 50-70% flow mostly depends on the glaciers melt water. Monsoon rains average annual rainfall is not expected to have a significant long-term trend, but is expected to exhibit large inter-annual variability in Pakistan. This precipitation change will effect on population of amphibians because of highly permeable skin, and both aquatic and terrestrial life stages. These attributes make Pakistan’s endemic amphibian fauna very sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation.

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Climate change and physiology - reproduction

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Climate change and physiology - reproduction

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Reptiles and amphibians are ectothermic (cold blooded), which means that their internal temperature is governed by ambient temperature. Therefore, their behavior is highly temperature dependent, becoming increasingly active after basking on sunny days and less active during cold periods of the year. In the peak summer months, when temperatures become very high, these animals become very elusive. This adaptive physiology means that herpetofauna has very low energy expenditure and can survive long periods with very little food.

The cold blooded nature of these animals and their semi-permeable skin makes them perfect environmental indicators, especially with regards to climate change and water toxicity. However, according to some particular studies, because reptiles are known to favour warm areas, they might therefore be less severely affected by increasing temperatures or may even benefit from global warming in colder regions (Winter et al., 2016). Furthermore, as studies have shown, the sex of the sea turtle for example is affected by the temperature at which the egg is incubated, so that climate change causes almost most sea turtles (reptiles) to be born females (Jensen et al., 2018). In Greece it is already evident that climate change threatens coastal ecosystems and nesting beaches of sea turtles (Dr. Minotou for WWF).

Also, Fernandez-Chacon et al. (2011) examined the effects of climate variability on the population dynamics of Hermann’s tortoise (Testudo hermanni), a threatened reptile species endemic to the Mediterranean region, to forecast the population responses to the regional climate changes predicted for this area. They showed that a shift to a more arid climate would have negative consequences for population persistence, enhancing juvenile mortality and increasing quasi extinction risk because of a decrease in recruitment.

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In Pakistan, the red-eared slider (Trachemys scripta elegans), also known as the red-eared terrapin, is a semiaquatic turtle belonging to the family Emydidae. It is a subspecies of the pond slider. It is the most popular pet turtle in the United States and is popular as a pet in the rest of the world. It has become the most commonly traded turtle in the world. It is native to the southern United States and northern Mexico, but has become established in other places because of pet releases, and has become an invasive species in many areas, where it outcompetes native species. The red-eared slider is included in the list of the world's 100 most invasive species published by the IUCN. This turtle is highly invasive and threat for Pakistan indigenous freshwater turtle fauna. Its illegal online trade need to be timely checked by National Council for Conservation of Wildlife (NCCW) and provincial Wildlife departments. Its invasive status is not yet determined in field.

It is believed that climate changes and especially warmer temperatures will increase the risk of getting new invasive species in Denmark or provide better circumstances for current ones (www.klimatilpasning.dk). For example, might the red-eared slider (Trachemys scripta elegans) get even better living conditions posing an even larger threat to the native species. The American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus), which so far has not established any populations in Denmark, might also suddenly be able to proliferate in the Danish nature due to climate changes. In Greece, there is one observation for an amphibian alien species which its expanding in the country probably has been driven by climate change (Demertzis & Iliadis, 2017).

In many areas of the world, chytridiomycosis has been spread into native ecosystems via biological invasions caused by alien invasive species, translocations of native species, and the amphibian trade (Cunningham et al., 2005, Fisher & Garner, 2008). Batrachochytrium dendrobatidishas not yet been reported in Pakistan. Although this disease is a major issue of amphibian conservation, patchy distributed surveys will be extremely useful for the early detection of new infections hotspots across wide, poorly investigated areas. Chytrid fungus has unfortunately been reported in a few Danish amphibian species (Martin Nielsen personal observation, unpublished). So far, its presence has not been associated with any mortalities in Denmark but it is likely that the changes induced by climate change might alter the amphibian-fungus relationship and interactions which might lead to reduced fitness and mortalities (Bosch et al., 2006; Rohr & Raffel, 2010).

An amphibian species endemic to the appennic region of Italy, Bombina pachypus is endangered according to IUCN. This is because of multiple threats, like habitat degradation, destruction of reproductive sites but it also emerged from the Environment Ministry of Italy that global warming favors pathogenic agents (Canestrelli et al., 2014).

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Climate change, land use change, chytridiomycosis from a macroecological perspective for amphibians

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Climate change, land use change, chytridiomycosis from a macroecological perspective for amphibians

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Hof et al. (2011) assessed the spatial distribution and interactions of climate change, land-use change and pathogen diseases in relation to the global distribution of amphibian species. They have shown that the greatest proportions of species negatively affected by climate change are projected to be found in Africa, parts of northern South America and the Andes. He also reported that regions with the highest projected impact of land-use and climate change coincide, but there is little spatial overlap with regions highly threatened by the fungal disease. Although, from the figures published in this paper we can extract some interesting results. For amphibians, climate change acts synergistically with other human pressures such as land use and pathogen disease chytridiomycosis. In addition, what we also see that the countries analyzed in this report (Denmark, Greece, Italy and Pakistan) show different spatial patterns on how climate change, land use change and pathogen disease will affect amphibians. For example, it seems that amphibians in countries like Denmark are affected mostly from climate change or chytridiomycosis while in Pakistan land use seems to have a more negative effect. In Mediterranean countries such as Greece and Italy it seems that the pathogen disease and climate change both threaten amphibians.

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution and pairwise overlap of the three main factors threatening global amphibian biodiversity, projected for the year 2080. a, Climate change and chytridiomycosis. b, Climate change and land-use change. c, Chytridiomycosis and land-use change. Figure has been published at Hof et al. (2011).

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In this report we examined the effect of climate change on herpetofauna of four different countries Denmark, Greece, Italy and Pakistan belong to two different biogeographical (Palearctic and Indo-Malayan) across various latitudes and thus climate. We found that climate change has implications on the distribution of species and the physiology (and reproduction behavior) on herpetofauna. For Mediterranean countries but also Pakistan one of the most negative effects of climate change is intensive drought which will drive amphibian species to lose their habitats (e.g. ponds, inland water etc.) Other species in northern countries (e.g. Denmark will face changes in their distribution moving northern but also extinct if they are restricted in their movements such as reptile species). However, maybe this will act as a barrier for the north countries whereas species diversity of herpetofauna will be increased because species from the southern countries of Europe will be distributed in the north. Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that sex ratio in sea turtles has been changed or increased juvenile mortality has been reported in land turtles due to climate change. As far as the pathogen disease of chytridiomycosis, there are no formal reports from the four countries except from Italy but personal observations and unpublished data inform us that this pathogen disease is expanded and acts together with climate change causing serious influences on amphibians. In conclusion, we would like to indicate that prioritization of conservation efforts needs to be based on knowledge of the spatial distribution both of the different key threats and of biodiversity.

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Executive Summary: Mariana Tsianou

Introduction: Mariana Tsianou

Results: Sofia Chronopoulou, Ismini Gkourtsouli – Antoniadou, Francesca Graciani, Niovi Hatzinikolaou, Martin Nielsen, Georgios Stamatopoulos, Mariana Tsianou, Mishkat Ullah

Conclusions: Sofia Chronopoulou, Ismini Gkourtsouli – Antoniadou, Francesca Graciani, Niovi Hatzinikolaou, Martin Nielsen, Georgios Stamatopoulos, Mariana Tsianou, Mishkat Ullah

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Why are Amphibians so Sensitive to Climate Change?

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Projected impact of climate change on the potential distribution of reptiles and amphibians in 2050 

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Projected impact of climate change on the potential distribution of reptiles and amphibians in 2050 

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https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/projected-impact-of-climate-change-on-the-potential-distribution-of-reptiles-and-amphibians-in

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Can the Frog Apocalypse be Stopped by a New "Vaccine" ? | Deep Look

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Can the Frog Apocalypse be Stopped by a New "Vaccine" ? | Deep Look

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Reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IXVcyCZVBg

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Can the Frog Apocalypse be Stopped by a New "Vaccine" ? | Deep Look

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Pakistan facing climate 'calamity' if warnings go unheeded

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Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe - M. B. Arau´jo, W. Thuiller and R. G. Pearson

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Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe - M. B. Arau´jo, W. Thuiller and R. G. Pearson

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20 years of continuous observations of plant life on land and at the ocean’s surface, from September 1997 to September. 2017

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20 years of continuous observations of plant life on land and at the ocean’s surface, from September 1997 to September. 2017

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This visualization shows . On land, vegetation appears on a scale from brown (low vegetation) to dark green (lots of vegetation); at the ocean surface, phytoplankton are indicated on a scale from purple (low) to yellow (high). Credit: NASA
Reference: https://climate.nasa.gov/system/news_items/main_images/2765_mollweide_cycle.gif