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What impact do the Wildfires in Canada have on the rest of North America?

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"Canada’s 2023 wildfire season was the most destructive ever recorded."

More than 6,000 fires had torched a staggering 15 million hectares of land

This was more than double the 1989 record

The record was 7.1 million hectares

"By mid-July, there were 29 mega-fires, each exceeding 100,000 hectares."

"From June 1 to 25, more land burned in southern Quebec than in the previous 20 years combined."

"Canada experienced its warmest May to July period in over 80 years, breaking previous national temperature records for the two-month period by 0.8°C."

This shows that climate change was most likely a factor in the increase in wildfires

"Furthermore, they found that wildfire-prone weather conditions in Quebec were 50 percent more intense because of climate change caused by human activity, while the peak intensity recorded was 20 percent higher."

The fire activity in Canada could also impact forest carbon balance, biodiversity, and disrupt local businesses, forest sector economies, and Indigenous communities

Air Quality was very poor throughout the United States during this time

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In 2023, Canada faced a formidable challenge: record-breaking wildfires. These fires were fuelled by record high temperatures and widespread drought conditions across the country. To what extent can climate change be linked to these events? Scientists from around the world did a rapid turn-around study to find answers.
The 2023 experience:

Canada's 2023 wildfire season was the most destructive ever recorded. By the end of the year, more than 6,000 fires had torched a staggering 15 million hectares of land. To put that in perspective, that's an area larger than England and more than double the 1989 record. Normally, an average of 2.5 million hectares of land are consumed in Canada every year. And unlike previous years, the fires this year were widespread, from the West Coast to the Atlantic provinces, and the North. By mid-July, there were 29 mega-fires, each exceeding 100,000 hectares.

"The word 'unprecedented' doesn't do justice to the severity of the wildfires in Canada this year," says Yan Boulanger, research scientist in forest ecology at Natural Resources Canada. "From a scientific perspective, the doubling of the previous burned area record is shocking."

Yan and two other Canadian Forest Services scientists - Jonathan Boucher and Sandy Erni - were part of an international team of 16 scientists involved in a rapid research study focused on Quebec's wildfire season. The team found that climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Quebec.

The study was conducted by World Weather Attribution (WWA), a group that looks at how climate change affects the intensity and likelihood of an extreme weather event. These studies are done very quickly, and while it's important to note that this report hasn't been peer reviewed yet, the study used peer-reviewed methods.

Why study Quebec? Well, Canada is so big that it's difficult to gather data from across all time zones to capture data across the country from coast to coast in a timely manner. Also, Quebec had an early start to the devastating 2023 wildfire season. Warm and dry conditions appeared in early May, setting the stage for June and July. On June 1, more than 120 fires were ignited by lightning in just one day. "Climate change is greatly increasing the flammability of the fuel available for wildfires because the trees, fallen trees, and underbrush are all so dry," explains Yan. "This means that a single spark, regardless of its source, can rapidly turn into a blazing inferno."

From June 1 to 25, more land burned in southern Quebec than in the previous 20 years combined. These conditions led to the largest single fire ever recorded in southern Quebec, which consumed 460,000 hectares. With all this, it's no wonder scientists are trying to find out what's going on.

Researchers used Natural Resources Canada's Fire Weather Index (FWI), a metric that combines temperature, windspeed, relative humidity and precipitation to estimate the level of fire danger. To assess the effect of hot and dry weather conditions from January to July, the scientists also calculated the Cumulative Daily Severity Rating from the FWI.

The role of climate change

"There's no question, extreme weather, record high temperatures and dry conditions caused by climate change intensified this year's wildfire crisis," says Jonathan.

Canada experienced its warmest May to July period in over 80 years, breaking previous national temperature records for the two-month period by 0.8°C. To quantify the effect of climate change on weather, scientists used weather data and computer model simulations to compare the pre-industrial climate to today's conditions, after about 1.2°C of global warming since the late 1800s. The study found that climate change made the extreme intensity of this fire season at least two times more likely than under preindustrial climate while the persistence of these conditions were at least seven times more likely. Furthermore, they found that wildfire-prone weather conditions in Quebec were 50 percent more intense because of climate change caused by human activity, while the peak intensity recorded was 20 percent higher.

Assessing events such as wildfires and weather presents a unique challenge. Jonathan emphasizes the need to constantly update climate models to account for ever-evolving weather patterns. "For instance, this summer's record temperatures and low humidity in Quebec was extreme by today's standards," he says. "But they could be the norm by the end of the century."

Long-term consequences:

The increasing risk of wildfires highlighted by the WWA study raises some key questions: How do we prepare? How do we adapt? What about wildfire response, containment and recovery? The WWA publishes results soon after the event, instead of waiting for a long review process, so they can provide context and lessons learned quickly after an extreme event.

This year's fire activity could also impact forest carbon balance, biodiversity, and disrupt local businesses, forest sector economies and Indigenous communities.

Looking ahead:

As wildfire risks will continue to intensify as the climate warms, Canada needs to reduce fossil fuel consumption and adapt fire management and mitigation strategies. There are different ways to manage wildfire risk, including controlled burns, revised forestry guidelines, and procedures to manage fuel around communities and infrastructure. It's a balance of these techniques that can help deal with future challenges.

"A changing climate means a proactive approach must be taken," says Sandy Erni. "Studies like this can offer important lessons to be better prepared for the next time a devastating event like this occurs."

For more information:

Canadian Wildland Fire Information System
Fire Weather Maps (Natural Resources Canada)
World Weather Attribution

Impact of climate change on forest fires (Simply Science podcast)

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Canada's record-breaking wildfires in 2023: A fiery wake-up call

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In 2023, Canada is facing a formidable challenge: record-breaking wildfires. These fires are fueled by record high tempe

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Air pollution traveled as far as Europe and China

There were billions of dollars in property damage

"This amount of tree cover loss produced roughly 3 billion tons of carbon dioxide."

"Due to Canada’s emissions accounting methods, most of the country’s wildfire-related emissions will not be officially reported in the UN’s global inventory, despite their substantial contribution to climate change."

Canada started to show what the increase in climate can do to forests and the fires it can create

"As larger forested areas burn, more carbon is emitted into the atmosphere, further exacerbating climate change and contributing to even more fires."

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Canada’s Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfires Released Nearly 4 Times More Carbon than Global Aviation

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Canada’s 2023 wildfires made international headlines, causing billions of dollars in property damage, displacing thousands of people from their homes, and spewing air pollution that traveled as far as Europe and China. A new analysis shows that the wildfires also had a massive effect on greenhouse gas emissions.

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The acceleration in climate change is making wildfires bigger, faster, and more frequent

"In 2024, wildfires continued to devastate the country, becoming the sixth-most destructive season on record, with over 5.3 million hectares burned."

Research shows that governments need to keep people out of unsafe ecosystems while also pushing for a reduction in fossil fuel use

In Canada, the area burned in 2023 was more than six times the historical average

"Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada in 2023 (World Weather Attribution 2023)."

"93% of the area burned in Canada in 2023 was from fires ignited by lightning; only 7% by human ignition (Jain et al. 2024)."

The smoke from the wildfires causes many health problems and school closures

A single week of smoke in Ontario created a cost of close to 1.2 billion dollars for healthcare

People in Western Canada have started to develop asthma from the smoke

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FACT SHEET: Climate change and wildfires in Canada

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With Canada warming twice as fast as the global average, the country is now experiencing this consequence of global heating firsthand.

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"Wildland fire has been a persistent feature of the Canadian landscape for millennia (Richard 1993; Price et al. 2013)."

" On average, fires have burned 1.96 Mha per year in Canada from 1959 to 2015, and the annual area burned is trending upward (Hanes et al. 2019)."

Lightning and people have been the main causes of these fires

They account for roughly 50% of the fires each

"The seasonality of human- and lightning-caused fires differs, with human-caused fires occurring more often during spring and autumn, and lightning-caused fires occurring more often during the summer months."

Scientific research on Canadian Wildfires began in the 1920s

"A major accomplishment of early wildland fire research was the development of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS)."

This system includes a Fire Weather Index and a Fire Behaviour Prediction system

Research of these fires now is much more complex and computer based which is helping deal with the fires a little better

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These wildfires released a significant amount of carbon dioxide, decreased air quality, and demonstrated the consequences of climate change. Ultimately, these wildfires had a very negative impact on the rest of North America.