# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
The seven states that rely on the Colorado River for power and drinking water have reached a deal on cuts to keep the drought-stricken river flowing.

Three states - Arizona, California and Nevada - have agreed on a plan to conserve at least 3 million acre-feet of water by 2026 - roughly the equivalent to the amount of water it would take to fill 6 million Olympic-sized swimming pools.

The Biden administration, which helped broker the agreement, announced the consensus deal Monday in a news release.

The seven states that rely upon the Colorado River were on the precipice of crisis after decades of overuse. Before a banner winter of snowfall, officials grew concerned as dams at Lake Mead and Lake Powell neared "dead pool" status - when flow would be cut off to lower regions of the river as water levels dropped too low to pass through the dams.

About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for drinking water. Utilities depend on it to generate electricity at dams on Lake Mead and Lake Powell and keep power flowing in several states.

The deal could avert the near-term crisis and put the states on a more sustainable trajectory for water use, but it calls for less conservation than some scientists say is required to stabilize the river after a more than two-decade drought. The deal prevents a political predicament for the Biden administration, which would have been compelled to enforce cuts unilaterally if the states could not negotiate an agreement among themselves.

Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said in the release that the announcement was "a testament to the Biden-Harris administration's commitment to working with states, Tribes and communities throughout the West to find consensus solutions in the face of climate change and sustained drought."

Once analyzed and officially approved by the Bureau of Reclamation, which operates the dams on Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the new agreement would be in place through 2026.

"This is a big deal," said Robert Glennon, a professor emeritus at the University of Arizona who specializes in water law and policy, adding that the problems states faced were "truly historic and potentially catastrophic if either Lake Powell or Lake Mead hit dead pool."

As part of the agreement, the administration would use funding from the Inflation Reduction Act to compensate some farmers and other water users who temporarily agree to cuts.

As it analyzes the new agreement, the Biden administration has agreed to temporarily withdraw the plans it drew up for dramatic cuts in case the state negotiations failed.

Glennon said the proposals from the federal government - which laid out competing proposals with stark consequences if states couldn't find common ground - "focused the minds" of negotiators and forced them to find tolerable cuts. The federal dollars from the Inflation Reduction Act will provide compensation for more than three quarters of the water conserved in the deal.

"Without that money, this deal doesn't happen," Glennon said.

The federal money will fund water conservation programs to compensate farmers, tribal communities, cities and other water users that take steps to voluntarily and temporarily cut back on water use, said Dave White, a professor at Arizona State University and the leader of the Arizona Water Innovation Initiative. Such programs could push farmers to grow less water-intensive crops, use more efficient irrigation methods or fallow fields temporarily.

The governors of California, Arizona and Nevada - the lower basin states that agreed to the cuts - cheered the agreement.

"California has stepped up to make significant cuts to water usage and now, this historic partnership between California and other Lower Basin states will help maintain critical water supply for millions of Americans as we work together to ensure the long-term sustainability of the Colorado River System for decades to come," California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a news release.

Negotiators for the four upper basin states - Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming - have said they support the decision to submit the new plan for the federal government's consideration and to avoid emergency measures imposed by the federal government.

In a letter to the Bureau of Reclamation, the governors of California, Arizona and Nevada said they hoped the new agreement would allow negotiations to "pivot to discussions on post-2026 operations that will address the impacts of climate change on system water supply availability and the existing overallocation of water."

The Bureau of Reclamation will open up that process in the coming weeks, according to the news release from the Interior Department.

Glennon said California, Arizona and Nevada have strengthened their positions in future negotiations or if the federal government must impose additional cuts later.

"There will be time enough to ask the upper basin states to take a greater share later," Glennon said.

The Colorado River's water is apportioned among seven states, 30 tribal nations and Mexico. The river has been overallocated, meaning users collectively have rights to more water than what typically flows through each year, since its use was divided up in the 1922 Colorado River Compact and in subsequent agreements. The effects of climate change - which is heating and drying the Colorado basin - is squeezing the water supply even further.

Solving the Colorado Rivers' long-term water supply imbalance remains a daunting task.

"We need to reduce demand by up to 3 million acre feet per year to reach a balance in terms of our current supply and demand. This is a fraction, maybe a third, of what is likely necessary, but it is an important step," White said.

As water levels dwindled in recent years, an outsized snowfall this winter forestalled the most dire impacts. Many western western states got more than twice as much snow as yearly averages. The snowpack - which is now rapidly melting and flowing into key reservoirs - gave state negotiators months of extra time to reach an agreement about cuts.

The winter precipitation "was a gift we did not want to squander," said Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke, who was involved in the negotiations.

Buschatzke said negotiators should continue pushing for permanent solutions.

"The stakes for the 40 million people and farmland reliant on this water are too high," Buschatzke said. "We can't stop and take a long break and breathe a sigh of relief and say we've fixed our problems because we haven't for the long term."

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Three states agree to reduce water usage so the Colorado River doesn't go dry

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
A new plan would conserve at least 3 million acre-feet of water by 2026 in an effort to ensure the crucial waterway continues to generate power and provide drinking water.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

For much of the last 23 years, the Colorado River has been ravaged by unrelenting dryness, its reservoirs falling to their lowest levels since they were filled. New research shows that global warming is a major culprit, shrinking the river's flow and robbing the region of a vast amount of water.

A team of scientists at UCLA estimated that from 2000 to 2021, rising temperatures led to the loss of about 32.5 million acre-feet of water in the Colorado River Basin, more than the entire storage capacity of Lake Mead, the country's largest reservoir.

The scientists said that if it weren't for the effects of climate change, the river's reservoirs probably would not have declined to the point of triggering the first-ever government-declared shortage.

The river's flow has decreased an estimated 10.3% because of higher temperatures, and the researchers warned that the water supply is set to shrink further as warming driven by the burning of fossil fuels continues to dry out the watershed.

"The long-term increase in temperature has had a large impact on this basin, and that's what we quantified," said Benjamin Bass, a water scientist at UCLA and the study's lead author. "We're going to continue to see reductions in runoff due to rising temperatures."

Average temperatures in the Colorado River Basin have already risen about 2.7 degrees, according to the study, which was published in the journal Water Resources Research. The scientists estimated that for each additional 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit of warming, the river's flow could shrink by about 7%.

The Colorado River provides water for cities, farmlands and tribal communities across seven states and northern Mexico. The river has long been overallocated, and its reservoirs have declined dramatically since 2000.

(Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)

Storms this winter left the Rocky Mountains with one of the largest snowpacks in years, and the runoff has been boosting reservoir levels.

Still, Lake Mead remains depleted. The reservoir near Las Vegas - which stores water for Arizona, California, Nevada and Mexico - sits at 32% capacity.

The seven states that depend on the river have agreed on proposed plans to cut water use over the next three years, and the federal government in June initiated negotiations on long-term plans for dealing with shortages after 2026, when the existing interim rules expire.

The current system of dividing water among the states is based on the 1922 Colorado River Compact, which assumed a stable climate and overpromised what the river could provide. The negotiations on new long-term plans have brought calls for revamping the system to adapt to drier conditions and address the chronic gap between supply and demand.

"Going into the future, we may get some natural variability, wet or dry swings, but this study highlights that there's been a decreasing trend in runoff," Bass said. "In the long run, that's likely to continue if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced."

The study adds to a growing body of research detailing the toll the warming climate is taking on the Colorado River. Scientists have found that roughly half the decline in the river's flow has been caused by higher temperatures, and that climate change is driving the aridification of the Southwest. In multiple studies, researchers have estimated that by mid-century, the river's average flow could decline 30% or 40%, or more, below the average of the past century.

Already, the river's flow has shrunk about 20% since 2000 during a megadrought that scientists have described as the driest 22-year period in the American West in at least 1,200 years.

Bass and his colleagues at UCLA sought to build on previous research by analyzing how increasing carbon dioxide levels affect the amount of water that plants take in and release as water vapor, thereby influencing the amount of runoff that reaches the river and its tributaries. They examined climate data, stream gauge measurements and other records, and used a model to analyze changes in hydrology as well as the response of vegetation to rising CO2 levels between 1880 and 2021.

(Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)

They estimated that warming-driven water losses began to appear in the watershed around 1980, initially with reductions of about 2.5% in runoff. In recent years, the estimated losses have reached about 10%.

The researchers pointed out that this Lake Mead-sized loss of water from 2000 to 2021 totaled more than 10 trillion gallons. That quantity of water, if spread across Los Angeles County 's 2.6 million acres, would be about 12 feet deep.

Bass said he was surprised to see how sensitive the Colorado River Basin is to warming compared with other watersheds in the western U.S. He called it "a wake-up call to the climate change impacts we are living today."

Much of the river's water originates as snow and rain in the Rocky Mountains. The scientists found that parts of the watershed that are usually snow-covered in winter have been losing water about twice as fast as areas that typically remain snowless.

"Basically, the most crucial part of the basin in terms of water supply is drying at a faster rate than the rest of the basin," Bass said.

The authors focused on how warming has affected the river's flow, saying the exceptional warmth since 2000 has compounded a decrease in precipitation "primarily driven by natural variability." They didn't evaluate how much of the decrease in precipitation might be driven by climate change, and suggested that's an important area for additional research.

Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan who wasn't involved in the study, said the research makes a valuable contribution by detailing the changes affecting the Colorado River.

"I'm just worried that the actual sensitivity is larger," Overpeck said. "The effect of climate change on river flows may actually be larger than they're estimating."

If the declines in precipitation are being driven partly by climate change, which appears likely, the effects on the river could be more extreme in the coming decades, Overpeck said.

"Half of the flow of the Colorado River may be lost due to climate change by mid-century," Overpeck said. "I think that would be a more prudent way to look at it. Because it's well within the scientific understanding at this point, and you don't want to assume that you have more water than you really do."

Overpeck said the research underscores the importance of stopping the burning of fossil fuels as quickly as possible, and also the need for the Southwest to curb overuse of the river's water as well as groundwater. To adapt to the drying climate, Overpeck said, the region should come up with a "verifiable strategy for sustainable water use."

He said that should include efforts to recycle water and use water more efficiently. He also pointed out that large quantities of water are being used to grow water-intensive crops like alfalfa, some of which is exported to feed cattle in other countries.

"It's all about using water a lot more wisely, and using Colorado River water less," Overpeck said.

Recent discussions among the region's water management officials have focused largely on efforts to reduce water use with support from $1.2 billion in federal funds made available through the Inflation Reduction Act. Interior Department officials have said much of the reductions in water use will come by paying agricultural landowners, water districts, tribes and others to conserve water, helping to reduce the pressures on the limited supply in Lake Mead.

Meanwhile, environmental groups are urging the Interior Department and the Bureau of Reclamation to start putting solar panels atop thousands of miles of canals - including some that connect the Colorado to Southern California and Arizona. A coalition of groups, among them the Center for Biological Diversity and the Mojave Desert Land Trust, said in a letter to the agencies that installing solar systems over canals and aqueducts owned by the federal government could generate clean power for millions of homes while reducing the amount of water lost to evaporation.

They cited the negotiations aimed at cutting water use along the Colorado River, saying that despite this year's wet winter, "much of the western United States remains in a long-term drought that is likely to worsen as climate change intensifies."

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Colorado River losing vast amounts of water due to warming climate, study finds

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
New research examines how much global warming has sapped the Colorado River since 2000. It shows the region has lost more water than Lake Mead can hold.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
I suggest that the field of ecology is fragmenting into two large visions of the science which for the sake of simplicity I will call Global Science and Local Science. This fragmentation is not entirely new, and some history might be in order.

Local Science deals with local problems, and while it aspires to develop conclusions that apply to a broader area than the small study area, it has always been tied to useful answers for practical questions. Are predators the major control of caribou declines in northern Canada? Can rats on islands reduce ground-nesting birds to extinction? Does phosphate limit primary production in temperate lakes? Historically Local Science has arisen from the practical problems of pest control and wildlife and fisheries management with a strong focus on understanding how populations and communities work and how humans might solve the ecological problems they have largely produced (Kingsland 2005). The focus of Local Science was always on a set of few species that were key to the problem being studied. As more and more wisdom accumulated on local problems, ecologists turned to broadening the scope of enquiry, asking for example if solutions discovered in Minnesota might also be useful in England or vice versa. Consequently, Local Science began to be amalgamated into a broader program of Global Science.

Global Science can be defined in several ways. One is purely financial and big dollars; this not what I will discuss here. I want to discuss Global Science in terms of ecological syntheses, and Global Science papers can often be recognized by having dozens to hundreds of authors, all with data to share, and with meta-analysis as the major tool of analysis. Global Science is now in my opinion moving away from the experimental approach that was a triumph of Local Science. The prelude to Global Science was the International Biological Program (IBP) of the 1970s that attempted to produce large-scale systems analyses of communities and ecosystems but had little effect in convincing many ecologists that this was the way to the future. At the time the problem was largely the development of a theory of stability, a property barely visible in most ecological systems.

Global Science depends on describing patterns that occur across large spatial scales. These patterns can be discovered only by having an extensive, reliable set of local studies and this leads to two problems. The first is that there may be too few reliable local studies. This may occur because different ecologists use different methods of measurement, do not use a statistically reliable sampling design, or may be constrained by a lack of funding or time. The second problem is that different areas may show different patterns of the variables under measurement or have confounding causes that are not recognized. The approach through meta-analysis is fraught with the decisions that must be made to include or exclude specific studies. For example, a recent meta-analysis of the global insect decline surveyed 5100 papers and used 166 of them for analysis (van Klink et al. 2020). It is not that the strengths and limitations of meta-analysis have been missed (Gurevitch et al. 2018) but rather the question of whether they are increasing our understanding of the Earth's ecology. Meta-analyses can be useful in suggesting patterns that require more detailed analyses. In effect they violate many of the rules of conventional science in not having an experimental design, so that they suggest patterns but can be validated only by a repeat of the observations. So, in the best situations meta-analyses lead us back to Local Science. In some situations, meta-analyses lead to no clear understanding at all, as illustrated in the conclusions of Geary et al. (2020) who investigated the response of terrestrial vertebrate predators to fire:

"There were no clear, general responses of predators to fire, nor relationships with geographic area, biome or life-history traits (e.g. body mass, hunting strategy and diet). Responses varied considerably between species." (page 955)

Note that this study is informative in that it indicates that ecologists have not yet identified the variables that determine the response of predators to fire. In other cases, meta-analysis has been useful in redirecting ecological questions because the current global model does not fit the facts very well (Szuwalski et al. 2015).

The result of this movement within both ecological and conservation science toward Global Science has been a shift in the amount of field work being done. Rios-Saldana et al. (2018) surveyed the conservation literature over the last 35 years and found that fieldwork-based publications decreased by 20% in comparison to a rise of 600% and 800% in modelling and data analysis studies. This conclusion could be interpreted that ecologists now realize that less fieldwork is needed at this time, or perhaps the opposite.

In an overview of ecological science David Currie (2019) described an approach to understanding how progress in ecology has differed from that in the physical sciences. He suggests that the physical sciences focused on a set of properties of nature whose variation they analyzed. They developed 'laws' Like Newton's laws or motion that could be tested in simple or complex systems. By contrast ecology has developed largely by asking how processes like competition or predation work, and not by asking questions about the properties of natural systems, which is what interests the general public trying to solve problems in conservation or pest or fisheries management. Currie (2019) summarized his approach as follows:

"Successful disciplines identify specific goals and measure progress toward those goals. Predictive accuracy of properties of nature is a measure of that progress in ecology. Predictive accuracy is the objective evidence of understanding. It is the most useful tool that science can offer society." (page 18)

Many of these same questions underlay the critical appraisal of ecology by Peters (1991).

There is no one approach to ecological science, but we need to continue to ask what progress is being made with every approach. These are key questions for the future of ecological research, and they are worthy of much more discussion because they determine what students will be taught and what kinds of research will be favoured for funding in the future.

Currie, D.J. (2019). Where Newton might have taken ecology. Global Ecology and Biogeography 28, 18-27. doi: 10.1111/geb.12842.

Geary, W.L., Doherty, T.S., Nimmo, D.G., Tulloch, A.I.T., and Ritchie, E.G. (2020). Predator responses to fire: A global systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of Animal Ecology 89, 955-971. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.13153.

Gurevitch, J., Koricheva, J., Nakagawa, S., and Stewart, G. (2018). Meta-analysis and the science of research synthesis. Nature 555, 175-182. doi: 10.1038/nature25753.

Kingsland, Sharon .E. (2005) ' The Evolution of American Ecology, 1890-2000 ' (Johns Hopkins University Press: Baltimore.) ISBN: 0801881714

Peters, R.H. (1991) ' A Critique for Ecology.' (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, England.) ISBN: 0521400171

Ríos-Saldaña, C. Antonio, Delibes-Mateos, Miguel, and Ferreira, Catarina C. (2018). Are fieldwork studies being relegated to second place in conservation science? Global Ecology and Conservation 14: e00389. doi: 10.1016/j.gecco.2018.e00389.

Szuwalski, C.S., Vert-Pre, K.A., Punt, A.E., Branch, T.A., and Hilborn, R. (2015). Examining common assumptions about recruitment: a meta-analysis of recruitment dynamics for worldwide marine fisheries. Fish and Fisheries 16, 633-648. doi: 10.1111/faf.12083.

van Klink, R., Bowler, D.E., Gongalsky, K.B., Swengel, A.B., Gentile, A. and Chase, J.M. (2020). Meta-analysis reveals declines in terrestrial but increases in freshwater insect abundances. Science 368, 417-420. doi: 10.1126/science.aax9931.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
I suggest that the field of ecology is fragmenting into two large visions of the science which for the sake of simplicity I will call Global Science and Local Science. This fragmentation is not ent...

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Mulch and microirrigation help to reduce watering. DWR/2014.

Water is a precious and limited resource, especially in drought-prone California where the next dry period could be right around the corner. As a result, water conservation and the efficient use of California's water supply are major priorities for the State.

In coordination with the Association of California Water Agencies, we organized the Save Our Water program to help Californians learn ways to save water at home to reduce the effects of drought. Even the simplest changes to daily routines can have a significant impact. By making conservation a way of life in California, we save water, minimize water waste, rebuild our underground aquifers, prepare for the uncertainties of climate change, and minimize the harmful effects of drought.

We encourage all Californians to embrace wise water use as a daily habit, whether we are experiencing a year of heavy or meager rain. Start by following the water conservation tips below, and visit Save Our Water and your local water agency for more tips, tools, and incentives - including rebates. You can also view photos of our past California State Fair water-wise garden exhibits for ideas on how to create your own low-water use landscape.

Indoor Conservation Tips

Fix leaks, including leaky toilets

Install high-efficiency toilets, aerators on bathroom faucets, and water-efficient shower heads

Take shorter (5 minute) showers

Track your water bill and meter to curtail water use

Turn off water when brushing teeth or shaving

Use dishwashers and washing machines with full loads only

Outdoor Conservation Tips

Plant drought-tolerant/resistant plants and trees

Recycle indoor water to use on plants

Refrain from watering your home landscape when it rains

Replace your grass/turf with water-wise plants

Use a broom to clean driveways, patios, and sidewalks instead of water from a hose

Water your outdoor landscape earlier in the day when temperatures are cooler

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Water is a precious and limited resource, especially in drought-prone California where the next dry period could be right around the corner. As a result, water conservation and the efficient use of California's water supply are major priorities for the State.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Current state-level drought information for Colorado: 1.5 Million people in Colorado are affected by drought 64 counties with USDA disaster designations 10th wettest January was in 2023, over the past 129 years 10th wettest year to date was in 2023, over the past 129 years .

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
The upper-level circulation over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (September 20-26) consisted of an upper-level ridge of high pressure, that extended from the southern Plains to Hudson Bay, and a low-pressure trough over the eastern Pacific. The trough sent weather systems spinning across the CONUS, with their fronts and surface low pressure systems generating areas of rain across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ophelia moved up the East Coast, spreading rain from North Carolina to southern New England. These areas were wetter than normal for the week. Some of the rain was locally heavy, with over 5 inches reported in places. Much of the rain fell over severely dry areas, which resulted in contraction or reduction in the intensity of drought in parts of the Great Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Mid-Atlantic states. It was drier than normal across the rest of the West, large parts of the central to southern Plains, and most of the country between the Mississippi Valley and Appalachians. The continued dry conditions from the Ohio Valley to central Gulf of Mexico Coast resulted in expansion or intensification of drought and abnormal dryness in these areas. Temperatures averaged warmer than normal beneath the ridge across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes. The week was cooler than normal in the West and across the East Coast states.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia spread 2 inches of rain across an area from Delaware and the eastern half of Maryland to Connecticut and Rhode Island. Weekly rainfall totals of half an inch or more extended west into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, and north to Massachusetts, and also occurred over northern Maine. The rest of the Northeast region had little to no precipitation. Abnormal dryness and moderate to severe drought were reduced in Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. Low streamflow and soil moisture prompted the expansion of abnormal dryness in western New York.

The eastern half of North Carolina and Virginia, and parts of Florida, received 2 or more inches of rain this week, with rainfall totals over 6 inches locally in coastal North Carolina. Interior portions of the Southeast region received little to no rain. Abnormal dryness and moderate drought were reduced in North Carolina and Virginia. Spotty heavy rains in western Florida contracted D0-D2, while other parts of the west-central coast continued dry and D0-D3 expanded. Severe drought expanded in the Florida panhandle and parts of Alabama; abnormal dryness and moderate drought grew in Alabama, Georgia, and Florida; and abnormal dryness expanded in the western Carolinas.

Bands of heavy rain fell across eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and the ArkLaTex, with amounts over 5 inches recorded. Amounts of half an inch to 2 inches extended outward from this central band. But the western half of Texas and Oklahoma, and much of Mississippi and Tennessee received little to no rain. Hydrological impacts were severe in parts of the South region, with Falcon International Reservoir in south Texas near record-low levels, comparable to the levels reached during the droughts of 2002 and 1956 (during the Great Plains 1950s Drought). Temperatures were warmer than normal across most of the region, with anomalies reaching 8 to 12 degrees above normal over Texas. Moderate to exceptional drought expanded in Mississippi, extreme drought expanded in southwest Oklahoma and southern Texas, and abnormal dryness and some moderate drought spread across parts of Tennessee. Abnormal dryness and moderate to exceptional drought were trimmed in parts of Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana, with 2-category changes occurring in places. Arkansas had contraction of drought in the west and expansion or intensification in the central to eastern parts. The lack of precipitation and persistently hot temperatures during the last several months in the South have severely dried out soils. According to September 24 U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) statistics, 80% of the topsoil moisture in Louisiana was short or very short (dry or very dry). The statistics were 75% for Mississippi, 66% for Texas, 63% for Oklahoma, 62% for Arkansas, and 38% for Tennessee.

Western parts of the Midwest region were inundated with heavy rain while eastern parts received little to no rain this week. Large areas in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri, received 2 inches or more, with locally 5+ inches of rain observed. Abnormal dryness and moderate to exceptional drought were reduced in these states, with some 2-category changes occurring. Meanwhile, abnormal dryness and moderate drought expanded across much of Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky, where soils were drying, streams were low, and the last 1 to 2 months were extremely dry, and in parts of Michigan, Missouri, and Illinois. Reports received by the Indiana Extension Office included rapid maturation of crops, trees losing leaves, plants dying, large cracks in soils, stunted lawns, and dropping pond levels across the state, with burn bans in place. In Missouri, there were reports of dry ponds in the Bootheel. Temperatures were warmer than normal across most of the region, with anomalies reaching 8 to 12 degrees above normal over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Soils continued to dry in the Ohio Valley. According to USDA statistics, 68% of the topsoil in Indiana was short or very short of moisture; this was an increase of 12% compared to last week. The statistics were 55% in Ohio (an increase of 12% compared to last week), 52% in Kentucky (up 9%), and 30% in Michigan (up 16%). The rain in the Upper Mississippi Valley improved soil moisture, but not by much. In Iowa, 73% of the topsoil moisture was still short to very short, 70% in Minnesota, 60% in Wisconsin, and 58% in Missouri.

Northern and eastern parts of the High Plains region received half an inch to over 2 inches of rain this week, while Colorado and parts of Wyoming and Kansas received little to no rain. D0-D4 contracted in Nebraska, D0-D3 were reduced in Kansas and North Dakota, and D0-D2 shrank in South Dakota. On the other hand, abnormal dryness returned to Wyoming and abnormal dryness and moderate drought expanded in Colorado. Two-thirds (67%) of the topsoil in Kansas was still short or very short of moisture, according to USDA statistics.

The southerly flow ahead of the eastern Pacific trough created an atmospheric river event that resulted in half an inch to 2 inches of precipitation across coastal areas from northern California to Washington. While the precipitation was helpful, it did not make up for deficits that have built up over the last several months; parts of Washington are still 10 inches or more below normal over the last 6 months. Severe drought was eliminated over southwest coastal Oregon where rainfall totals exceeded 3 inches and the total for the month was above normal. Much of Montana and parts of the northern Rockies received widespread 1 to 3 inches of precipitation; this resulted in contraction of D0-D2 in Montana. The rest of the West region received little to no precipitation. Abnormal dryness and severe drought expanded in Arizona, and extreme to exceptional drought expanded in southern New Mexico. USDA statistics indicated that three-fourths or more of the topsoil moisture was short or very short in Washington (82%), New Mexico (78%), Montana (77%), and Oregon (74%).

Puerto Rico had a mostly drier-than-normal week with warmer-than-normal temperatures continuing. Low streamflow and mounting precipitation deficits resulted in the expansion of D0 and addition of new D1 in eastern parts of the island. Rain in northwest Puerto Rico shrank D0 and D1 there.

Abundant rains fell on the U. S. Virgin Islands last autumn (September - November 2022), but since December of last year, rainfall totals have consistently been well below normal. Well-above-normal to record-high temperatures have accompanied the dryness starting between late April to early July 2023 (depending on location), increasing the rate and extent of surface moisture and groundwater depletion. And for roughly the past 2 months, winds have peaked at 20 mph or higher on most days, further aggravating the degrading moisture budget.

The confluence of these conditions for an extended period led to worsening the drought classification to D4 (exceptional drought) on both St. Croix and St. Thomas last week -- the most extreme designation possible in the Drought Monitor (note that D4 means conditions this extreme occur about once every 50 years based on local climatology; it does not necessarily imply the worst conditions on record). This past week, below-normal precipitation and record or near-record high temperatures persisted, so the D4 designation on both St. Croix and St. Thomas was left intact. Rohlsen Airport on St. Croix reported 0.31 inch of rain this past week - more than most weeks in the recent past, but well under the weekly normal of approximately 1.14 inches. At the same time, daily high temperatures averaged over 95.1 deg. F, which is 6.5 deg. F above normal. King Airport on St. Thomas reported only 0.03 inch of rain September 20 - 26, inching September rainfall totals to 1.85 inches, which is 3.2 inches below normal. Temperatures ticked up during the last 4 days of the period on St. Thomas. For September 23 - 26. Mean temperatures averaged 3.25 deg. F above normal, which was the highest 4-day mean departure since August 16 - 19 averaged 3.5 deg. F warmer than normal. Meanwhile, farther to the east, St. John is also experiencing problematic dryness, but conditions are not as extreme. This past week, one location near Cruz Bay, St. John recorded 1.8 inches of rain on September 20, contributing to a weekly total of 2.2 inches, but such totals were the exception and not the rule. Windswept Beach, St. John got just under an inch of rain last week - a non-trivial amount, but September totals are still less than half of normal.

Of the three U. S. Virgin Islands assessed in the Drought Monitor, St. Croix is probably experiencing the most extreme conditions, at least according to the statistics. Over the past 9.5 months, rainfall deficits are very slightly better than on St. Thomas; however, almost 25 percent of the 9.5-month-total fell on one day, significantly reducing any benefit the rainfall might have induced. In addition, the heat has been more extreme on St. Croix than elsewhere, with near-record to record high temperatures common over the past couple of months.

From December 1, 2022 to September 26, 2023 St. Croix received 13.47 inches of rain, which is a foot below (and less than 52 percent of) normal [25.98 inches]. But of this total, 3.19 inches fell on one day (June 29), which limits how much benefit the rainfall can provide. Discounting this day, rainfall has been less than 42 percent of normal during this period. Much-above-normal temperatures have accompanied the dryness since late April, with frequent periods of record heat since early August. Since May 8, temperatures have averaged almost 2.8 deg. F above normal, with the lack of surface moisture allowing daytime highs to reach extreme to unprecedented levels more recently. Since April 27, only one day has averaged cooler than normal. Daily record high temperatures were tied or exceeded on 19 of the 24 days from August 27 - September 9, and again on 27 of 31 days since August 27, including 19 of the last 20 days. On August 14, the temperature at Rohlsen Airport topped 95 deg. F for the first time since October 1995. Since then, the temperature topped 95 deg. F 6 more times. From August 27 - September 26, the average high temperature was 94.2 deg. F - over 5.2 deg. F above normal, and over 0.65 deg. F above the average record high during this period.

St. Thomas has been even a little compared to normal since December 1. Through September 26, 13.75 inches of rain have been recorded, which is less than half the normal of 29.3 inches. Temperatures, however, have been considerably closer to normal than on St. Croix this year. September temperatures have averaged slightly over 1.7 deg. F above normal. This is unfavorably high, but below the extreme conditions observed on St. Croix.

Somewhat less than normal rainfall was observed at Windswept Beach on St. John last week (0.97 inch), but September monthly totals are still under half of normal. December 2022 - September 2023 rainfall is well below normal, but less so than on St. Croix and St. Thomas. The 24.74 inches observed during this period is about 73 percent of normal.

The drought, exacerbated by heat and wind, has significantly impacted agriculture. Farmers across the island report localized, sporadic rain, but it is not penetrating the hard, hot, and dry soil. Over 200 head of cattle and 20 horses have died from these conditions, and egg production is only about half of normal due to the affects of the heat and dryness on chickens. Farm animal populations have been kept thin to reduce the amount of water needed, and hay is being purchased and stored in anticipation of food shortages created by sparse, poor-quality grasses. The Adventure 28 Well has been monitored for several years now. According to the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS), water was less than 10 feet below the surface in mid-November 2017. Frequent periods of drought have caused the water level to drop over the past few years. After abundant September - November 2022 rainfall, the water level rose to about 25 feet below ground level, but the last 10 months of worsening drought have caused the water level to drop to over 34 feet below ground level on September 19.

Farmers on St. Thomas report increasing concerns with ponds slowly evaporating, but also that the limited and sporadic rain has helped recharge soil moisture a little. Many are still not planting due to the drought, heat, and wind. Efforts to increase water efficiency are underway to prepare for continued drought. Orchards and fruit trees have been watered as much as possible, and so far, large-scale losses have not occurred. Herders are rotating livestock, separating males from females to keep herd populations down due to the lack of forage and water. They are purchasing grain and hay to ensure enough food for the animals.

Los agricultores de St. Thomas informan de una creciente preocupación por la lenta evaporación de los estanques, pero también de que las lluvias limitadas y esporádicas han ayudado a recargar un poco la humedad del suelo. Muchos todavía no están plantando debido a la sequía, el calor y el viento. Se están realizando esfuerzos para aumentar la eficiencia del agua a fin de prepararse para una sequía continua. Se han regado al máximo los huertos y árboles frutales y hasta el momento no se han producido pérdidas a gran escala. Los pastores rotan el ganado, separando a los machos de las hembras para mantener bajas las poblaciones de rebaños debido a la falta de forraje y agua. Compran cereales y heno para garantizar suficiente alimento para los animales.

This week was cooler than normal for Alaska and wetter than normal across the panhandle but drier than normal for the rest of the state. No change was made to the depiction, with only a small area of D0 remaining in the east-central region near Yukon Flats.

Trade-wind showers have been benefitting windward slopes across Hawaii, but they haven't been enough to improve drought conditions although stream levels have improved. The showers haven't been getting to the leeward areas, where vegetation continues to be stressed and producer reports indicate very poor pasture conditions. Moderate drought (D1) expanded on Kauai and the Big Island, severe drought (D2) was added to Kauai and Oahu, and D2 expanded on the Big Island.

The islands stretching across (west to east) Palau, The Mariana Islands, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands are free of drought (D1 or worse), and D0 (abnormally dry) conditions are restricted to central and northern sections of the Marshall Islands. Meanwhile, moderate drought (D1) persisted at Tutuila on Pago Pago - this is the only location in the U. S. Affiliated Pacific Islands experiencing drought (D1 or worse). The only change in classification from last week occurred on Pingelap, where moderate to heavy rains ended abnormally dry (D0) conditions.

Despite some missing data, September 1 - 26 adds up to over 10 inches of rain at Koror. Anywhere from 13.4 to 26.9 inches of rain fell during each of the prior 4 months, making the Republic is free of any impacts from dryness, and the past few months of heavy rain will probably keep any problems at bay even if conditions dry out during the next couple of months.

It was a wet week on the southernmost island of Guam in the Marianas, with 3.8 to 4.2 inches falling. Islands to the north received considerably less precipitation, as Rota, Tinian, and Saipan measured only 0.8 to 1.2 inches September 20 - 26. Normal weekly amounts at this time of year range from about 2.4 inches of rain on the northernmost inhabited islands to 3.3 inches in parts of Guam Island. Rainfall totals in September have been unremarkable, with Saipan recording somewhat above normal rainfall and most other sites receiving 70 to 90 percent of normal. All sites report over 8 inches for the month, which is enough to meet up with water loss and usage each month. This follows abundant August rainfall of 18 to 19.5 inches at most sites. As a result, there are no concerns about dryness for the time being, nor are any expected for the foreseeable future.

In general, rainfall totals increased from west to east across the islands of Micronesia last week. Amounts ranged from near or slightly under 2 inches in western locations like Yap and Ulithi, to between 4.4 and 5.3 inches in central locations like Lukunor and Chuuk Lagoon, to over 6 inches in eastern areas like Pingelap and Kosrae. A few spots on the northern tier of islands were slightly drier outliers (Fananu received about 2 inches of rain), and in southernmost sections of Micronesia, a slightly wetter than normal week at Kapingamarangi (2.3 inches of rain) added to an already-soaking September. Month-to-date totals are now just shy of 23.5 inches there, making September 2023 the wettest month at Kapingamarangi since June 2019 (23.68 inches) with four days to go. Elsewhere, September totals range from considerably below normal at Ulithi and Yap in the West (40 to 60 percent of normal, although a few days are missing) to near normal in central Micronesia, to somewhat wet (near 130 percent of normal) in Nukuoro and Pohnpei. The exceptional amount reported at Kapingamarangi is almost 3 times normal for September.

Last week, there were no drought designations anywhere in Micronesia, and the only site with any notable dryness was Pingelap (D0). Rainfall there, however, has increased since early September. The 3.65 inches reported last week pushes the September 1 - 26 total to 12.1 inches, which is about normal and well over the amount needed to keep up with demand. This has prompted the removal of D0 from Pingelap, and all monitored sites in Micronesia are now free of any drought or abnormal dryness. There is no immediate concern brought about by the subnormal September rainfall in western sections of the Nation - nost notably Yap and Ulithi - since exceedingly heavy rains (44 to 47 inches) fell the prior two months.

Unlike areas farther west, three of the six monitored locations were experiencing abnormal dryness (D0) last week (Kwajalein, Ailinglapalap, and Wotje), and these three locations remain in abnormal dryness this week. Weekly rainfall totals increased from north to south during September 20 - 26, with about 2.75 inches falling on Jaluit and Mili in the South, near-normal totals of 1 to 1.4 inches reported in Ailinglapalap and Majuro, and subnormal amounts of rain in Kwajalein (0.74 inch) and Wotje (no rain). These rains were insufficient to provide any relief in abnormally dry areas but were enough to stave off any deterioration into drought. With 4 days left in September, the month has brought much wetter than normal weather to Mili (16.8 inches, or 185 percent of normal) and typical rainfall totals to Jaluit (9.1 inches, or 90 percent of normal). Other areas have not seen as much rain, with Kwajalein receiving 6.4 inches (70 percent of normal) while Ailinglapalap, Majuro, and Wotje accumulated only 3.7 to 4.8 inches (43 to 55 percent of normal). September will be the second or third consecutive month with subnormal rainfall at these drier locales, And the third consecutive month short of the 8 inches needed to keep the moisture budget from declining. Conditions in the D0 sites are similar, but Kwajalein is a little drier than the others, at least mathematically. For July-September, 18.7 inches of rain has fallen there, which is more than 11 inches below (63 percent of) normal. But to date, no significant impacts have been reported due to the dryness, so the designation remains D0.

Following a few exceptionally wet days in early September, a pattern of below normal rainfall returned to Pago Pago after the first week of September. The Austral winter (June - August 2023) is a dry time of year in the territory, with normal rainfall of 18.63 inches. This year, however, only 13.71 inches fell, with a meager 2.26 inches observed in August (36 percent of normal). Early September brought a few days of very heavy rain to Pago Pago, with 6.77 inches dousing the region September 6 - 7. But these rains did not herald a lasting pattern change. A little less than 3.1 inches fell during September 8 - 26 when close to 5 inches would be expected. Due to meager rains earlier in the austral winter, reports of continuing vegetative stress, and a return to subnormal rains since the early-September downpours, moderate drought (D1) remains in place this week.

Looking Ahead

In the two days since the Tuesday valid time of this USDM, the atmospheric river continued in the Pacific Northwest and rain has fallen across parts of the Midwest, Texas, and Florida. For September 28-October 3, a slow-moving weather system will drop 1 to locally 2 inches of rain across the Ohio Valley and parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, while a Pacific weather system will move across the northwestern CONUS, spreading 1 to 2 inches of precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and Montana, with heavier amounts (up to 4 inches or more expected) in coastal areas of Washington and Oregon. The Florida peninsula is forecast to get 2 to 4 inches of rain, while the Gulf Coast, Rio Grande Valley, and Mid-Atlantic states can expect an inch or less. The Southwest, New England, Carolina Piedmont, and most of New York and the southern Plains to Iowa are predicted to receive little to no precipitation. Temperatures are progged to be above normal from the Plains to Northeast and near to below normal across the Southeast and West.

For much of the next 2 weeks, the atmospheric circulation will consist of an upper-level trough over the western CONUS and a ridge over the Mississippi Valley. The trough/ridge system will slowly shift east during the period. The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) 6-10 Day Outlook (valid October 3-7) and 8-14 Day Outlook (valid October 5-11) favor a fairly stable pattern of warmer-than-normal temperatures from the Plains to East Coast and cooler-than-normal temperatures over the West and over the southeastern half of Alaska. The outlook is for above-normal precipitation over the Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, northern half of the West, and most of Alaska. Odds favor below-normal precipitation over the Northeast and Appalachian Mountain chain, extending into the Ohio Valley and to the central Gulf Coast, as well as in the Alaska panhandle.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
The upper-level circulation over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (September 20-26) consisted of an upper-level ridge of high pressure, that extended from the southern Plains to Hudson Bay, and a low-pressure trough over the eastern Pacific.

# data[].attributes.headline
Paper on possible solutions to the Colorado River Crisis

# data[].attributes.subject
Paper on possible solutions to the Colorado River Crisis

# data[].attributes.body
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/toc/10.1111/(ISSN)1752-1688.colorado-river-drought?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=VI_World_Combat_Drought_Colorado_River&utm_term=JAWR&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=organic&HootpostID=721dea58-5456-4538-8f66-b9109321a97f&Profile=wileyearthspace

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
A Breakthrough Deal to Keep the Colorado River From Going Dry, for Now

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
The agreement on cuts, aided by a wet winter and $1.2 billion in federal payments, expires at the end of 2026.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
What is drought? Causes, impact & countries most affected

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
East Africa is facing its worst drought in 40 years, with over 1.4 million people displaced by drought in Somalia alone. Learn more about drought, what causes it, and how we can support those most impacted.

# data[].attributes.headline
Colorado River water cut back-except for California

# data[].attributes.subject
Colorado River water cut back-except for California

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Colorado River water cut back - except for California

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
As California and six other western states scramble to reach a deal to cut use of Colorado River water, what will the federal government do?

# data[].attributes.body
As of my last knowledge update in September 2021, the Colorado River Basin was experiencing a prolonged and severe drought. However, I do not have access to real-time information, so I recommend checking the latest news and reports for the most up-to-date information on the Colorado River drought situation in 2023.

Here is some background information on the Colorado River drought up to 2021:

1. Drought Conditions: The Colorado River Basin, which spans seven U.S. states (Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, and California) and supplies water to about 40 million people and irrigates over 5 million acres of land, was facing an extended period of drought. The drought conditions were exacerbated by rising temperatures and decreasing snowpack in the Rocky Mountains.

2. Water Levels in Reservoirs: The two largest reservoirs in the Colorado River Basin, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, were experiencing significant declines in water levels. Lake Mead, in particular, was at historically low levels, triggering water shortage declarations and impacting water allocations for states and users downstream.

3. Water Shortage Declarations: Due to the declining water levels in Lake Mead, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation declared a water shortage in August 2021. This triggered mandatory reductions in water allocations to Arizona and Nevada, with potential future cutbacks for California and Mexico if the situation did not improve.

4. Efforts to Address the Drought: Various stakeholders, including states, water agencies, and environmental groups, were working on drought contingency plans and agreements to manage water resources more effectively during the drought. These efforts aimed to balance the competing needs of water users, agriculture, municipalities, and the environment.

5. Climate Change Impact: Climate change was considered a significant factor contributing to the prolonged drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin. Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns were affecting the region's water resources, making long-term planning and sustainable water management even more critical.

Since conditions can change rapidly, it is essential to consult the most recent reports and updates from authoritative sources such as the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the Colorado River Basin states, and environmental organizations for the current status of the Colorado River drought in 2023.

# data[].attributes.headline
What will happen if the Drought doesn't improve?

# data[].attributes.subject
What will happen if the Drought doesn't improve?

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
The Colorado River, one of the most important river systems in the country, is drying up at an alarming rate.

The issues surrounding depleting water levels along the Colorado River basin have become as heated as the arid climate contributing to the moisture-sapping megadrought persisting in the region for decades.

Despite an extremely wet winter that eased the effects of the longstanding drought, regional officials and environmental experts are expressing concern over future severe dips in the water supply and other ramifications dwindling water levels could have on local economies and human health.

The Colorado River is now considered the more endangered river in the world by conservation nonprofit American Rivers.

An ample water supply is a "critical component" of human health and public safety, Sinjin Eberle, Southwest region communications director for the nonprofit American Rivers, told ABC News.

"If there's not a healthy environment, we don't have healthy drinking water supplies, and we don't have healthy ecosystems and we don't have habitat for wildlife," Eberle said. "We don't have sustainability and we don't have certainty in the water supplies."

The Colorado River is one of the most important systems in the country

The Colorado River Basin supplies drinking water to 40 million people in the U.S., as well as two states in Mexico, according to the Bureau of Reclamation. It also fuels hydropower resources in eight states and remains a crucial resource for 30 Tribal Nations and agriculture communities across the West.

The river system supports $1.4 trillion of the annual U.S. economy and 16 million jobs in California, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming-- equivalent to about 1/12 of the total U.S. domestic product, economists at the University of Arizona found in 2015. More than 90% of the country's winter leafy greens and much of its vegetables are grown in Yuma, Arizona -- the state that would experience the most drastic water cuts under current regulations.

Lake Mead was producing 25% less hydroelectricity as its elevation reached a record low at 1,067 feet in December 2021. The reservoir was dangerously close to hitting dead pool status, when water levels are too low to flow downstream to generate power, last June as surface elevation measured in at just 1,043 feet.

This past March, water levels in Lake Mead measured at 1,046 feet, according to the Bureau of Reclamation.

Dead pool status is "not far in the future," and could possibly happen this decade, in the event of five or six consecutive dry winters, Zach Zobel, risk scientists at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, told ABC News.

If the West is not diligent in learning to live within the water system, it could have "serious ramifications" on other sectors, such as the semiconductor industry in Phoenix, a billion-dollar industry that provides tens of thousands of jobs in Arizona, Eberle said.

Without water from the Colorado River, Arizona's gross state product would drop by more than $185 billion in a year and the state would lose more than 2 million jobs, the 2015 report found.

In addition, electricity bills and water bills have the potential to skyrocket, and the region will need to consider building infrastructure for other power sources, such as solar and wind, Eberle said.

"Even more alarming" is that water could get so low that it can not be pumped and delivered to the states, communities and agricultural industries that rely on it, Richard Frank, professor of environmental practice at the University of California Davis School of Law, told ABC News.

The dip in water levels is widely due to climate change

Over the past 20 years, the West has been undergoing a substantial period of drought, much of it driven by anthropogenic, or human-caused, climate change, according to experts.

For every 1 degree Celsius in temperature rise, flow along the Colorado River has dipped 9.3%, scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey announced in 2020. This has led to the depletion of 1.5 billion tons of water, much of is lost to evaporation or lack or melting snowpack, according to the study.

The Colorado River has about 19% less volume than in the year 2000, Eberle said. By 2050, that number is expected to drop to 30% less than in 2000 if temperatures continue to rise, he added.

The Colorado River is over-allocated, experts say

In 1922, the Colorado River Compact divvied up the river's water -- as to how the water supplies from the Colorado River and its tributaries would be allocated -- among the seven states that rely on it. The upper basin states were established as New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming and Colorado, while the lower basin consists of California, Nevada and Arizona. Two states in Mexico -- Baja California and Sonora -- were added to the Compact in the 1940s.

However, the amount of water that was apportioned "was not consistent" and "exceeded significantly" the amount of water that was actually available, even by 1922 standards, Frank said.

"There were overestimations of how much water there would be to allocate among the states," Frank said. "So it was a flawed premise to begin with."

At the time of its inception, those in charge of dividing the water resources assumed they were working with a 17-million acre-foot river, based off an extremely wet period in the beginning of the 20th century, Eberle said. These days, the river is closer to 12 or 11 million acre-feet, he said.

When the contract was signed, there were only about half a million people living in the basin. Fast-forward to the 21st century, and a population explosion in the region with three of the largest cities in the country that rely on the Colorado River -- Phoenix, San Diego and Los Angeles -- has grown that number to more than 40 million, Eberle said.

Climate change over the past century has only worsened the inevitable problem, Frank said.

"So we have an additional challenge of less water availability at a time when we are we're attracting more people who want to reside in the Southwest," Frank said. "That's a problem."

Even in the absence of climate change, the Colorado River would likely be in decline due to the population growth, Zobel said.

1 year of heavy precipitation isn't enough to solve problem

At the start of the fall, the visual evidence of overallocation, combined with years of severe drought, was striking along the Colorado River system. Prominent bathtub rings showing where water levels once were could be seen in Lake Mead and Lake Powell. Parts of Lake Mead were so dry that human remains began to emerge in riverbeds once covered in freshwater.

Then, as winter rolled in, an "amazing and completely unpredicted series of events" occurred, Eberle said.

A series of atmospheric rivers -- essentially rivers in the sky that collect moisture from tropical areas and redistribute the water to other latitudes -- have been pummeling the West Coast with an influx of precipitation since December, bringing round after round of heavy rain and snow to the parched region.

"The snowpack is amazing, and in some ways it kind of takes the foot off the gas in terms of how dire things could be," Eberle said, but added that water levels could just as easily dip to record lows a year from now if urgent measures aren't taken to conserve water.

In the future, the trend will be for greater, longer, more protracted droughts interrupted occasionally, by periods of plentiful rainfall, scientists say.

This year will be an "important case study" on how much of the water that was lost in the past five years from the largest reservoirs can be recovered, Zobel said.

"If things can't recover in the good years, then the situation is still not looking good for the future," Zobel said.

Climate scientists don't expect many "average" years of precipitation anymore, Zobel said. Instead, what will likely happen is either all of the precipitation will come at once, or none at all -- what is referred to the "boom or bust precipitation pattern," he said.

While atmospheric rivers are expected to occur more frequently as global temperatures continue to rise, relying on the uncertainty that these events could occur again is not an adequate management strategy, Eberle said, especially since climate scientists expect snowpacks to trend much leaner in the future.

The influx of moisture into the coast has not yet been added to the water supply in the Colorado River system, but it will once the snowpack melts, the experts said.

In the sub-basin near Durango Colorado, the snowpack is about 180% above normal levels, Eberle said.

"That will bring a lot of water into Lake Powell and Lake Mead eventually," he said.

The immediate steps needed to maintain water levels

It will be up to the federal government to step in and encourage a tightening of water usage and address the imbalance between supply and demand, especially as the population in the Southwest, the fastest-growing region in the country -- continues to implode, the experts said.

The policy needs to include "major" water cuts, especially to the agriculture industry, Zobel said.

It would be "magical thinking" to assume that water from the Colorado River would be indefinitely available for the lower basin states, Frank said.

Officials may be coming to a consensus that too much water is leaving the Colorado River system.

On April 11, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation announced it was considering a landmark proposal that includes scenarios to conserve water by reducing the amount of water released from Glen Canyon Dam or cutting water allotments evenly among all the lower basin states if basin states don't find a way to conserve 4 million acre feet of water in by 2024 -- or roughly 20% of current water usage -- a directive made by Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton last summer.

"We're in the third decade of a historic drought that has caused conditions that the people who built this system would not have imagined," Tommy Beaudreau, deputy secretary of the Interior Department, told reporters on April 11.

Conversation among states to reduce water without federal intervention have become "very fractious and difficult," Frank said, adding that Mexico's entitlement further complicates matters.

The Interior Department will have the "ultimate say," Frank added.

The Biden Administration will also be providing a $15.4 billion investment to enhance the West's resilience to drought, which will include reducing water demand, maximizing water resources and protecting the communities along the Colorado River Basin.

Some of those solutions should include the modernization of agriculture industry systems, which uses up to 80% of the water supply in several regions, the experts said.

Water concerns are so rampant in Arizona that the city of Scottsdale cut off water delivery to Rio Verde Hills, an affluent neighborhood on the outskirts of the city.

"We have to address the imbalance between how much water there is, how much water there is going to be, and how much water is demanded for various aspects of life, like agriculture, drinking water in cities, and for recreation and water for the environment -- a key component of the sustainability of human health and public safety across the basin," Eberle said.

If the problem isn't solved, lack of adequate water supply will have a "profound effect" on communities and businesses in the West and the nation overall, Frank said.

"What does Tom Cruise say in 'Mission Impossible?' Hope is not a strategy," Eberle said.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Here's what will happen if Colorado River system doesn't recover from 'historic drought'

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
The issues surrounding depleting water levels along the Colorado River basin have become as heated as the arid climate contributing to the moisture-sapping megadrought.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Skip to main content

The .gov means it's official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you're on a federal government site.

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

California Drought Resources

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Current state-level drought information for California: .

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Nearly every part of the U.S. experiences periods of reduced rainfall. Planning in advance for a drought can protect us in dry years.

Before a Drought

The best way to prepare for a drought is to conserve water. Make conserving water a part of your daily life.

Indoor Water Conservation Tips Before a Drought
GENERAL

Never pour water down the drain when there may be another use for it. For example, use it to water your indoor plants or garden.

Fix dripping faucets by replacing washers. One drop per second wastes 2,700 gallons of water a year.

Check all plumbing for leaks and have any leaks repaired by a plumber.

Retrofit all household faucets by installing aerators with flow restrictors.

Install an instant hot water heater on your sink.

Insulate your water pipes to reduce heat loss and prevent them from breaking.

Install a water-softening system only when the minerals in the water would damage your pipes. Turn the softener off while on vacation.

Choose appliances that are more energy and water efficient.

BATHROOM KITCHEN
Outdoor Water Conservation Tips Before a Drought
GENERAL

If you have a well pump, check it periodically. If the automatic pump turns on and off while water is not being used, you have a leak.

Plant native and/or drought-tolerant grasses, ground covers, shrubs and trees. Once established, your plants won't need as much watering. Group plants together based on similar water needs.

Don't install ornamental water features (such as fountains) unless they use re-circulated water.

Consider rainwater harvesting where practical.

Contact your local water provider for information and assistance.

LAWN CARE POOL
During a Drought

Always observe state and local restrictions on water use during a drought. Contact your state or local government for current information and suggestions.

Indoor Water Conservation Tips During a Drought
BATHROOM LAUNDRY KITCHEN
Outdoor Water Conservation Tips During a Drought
LAWN CARE

A heavy rain eliminates the need for watering for up to two weeks. Most of the year, lawns only need one inch of water per week.

Check the soil moisture levels with a soil probe, spade or large screwdriver. You don't need to water if the soil is still moist. If your grass springs back when you step on it, it doesn't need water yet.

If your lawn does require watering, do so early in the morning or later in the evening, when temperatures are cooler.

Water in several short sessions rather than one long one, in order for your lawn to better absorb moisture and avoid runoff.

Use a broom or blower instead of a hose to clean leaves and other debris from your driveway or sidewalk.

Avoid leaving sprinklers or hoses unattended. A garden hose can pour out 600 gallons or more in only a few hours.

In extreme drought, allow lawns to die in favor of preserving trees and large shrubs.

CAR WASHING

Use a commercial car wash that recycles water.

If you wash your own car, use a shut-off nozzle that can be adjusted down to a fine spray on your hose.

Associated Content

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Planning in advance for a drought can protect us in dry years. Learn what to do before, during, and after a drought. Before a Drought During a Drought Associated Content Nearly every part of the U.S. experiences periods of reduced rainfall. Planning in advance for a drought can protect us in dry years.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Feds ease water cuts on Colorado River after blockbuster winter | CNN

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Federal officials are easing water restrictions on the Colorado River next year, an incredible improvement after above-average winter snowpack helped shore up plummeting water levels at the nation's two largest reservoirs.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.provider_name
Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Our Trajectory

Earth Will Continue to Warm and the Effects Will Be Profound

The potential future effects of global climate change include more frequent wildfires, longer periods of drought in some regions, and an increase in the wind intensity and rainfall from tropical cyclones. Credit: left - Mike McMillan/USFS, center - Tomas Castelazo / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0, right - NASA.

Global climate change is not a future problem. Changes to Earth's climate driven by increased human emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are already having widespread effects on the environment: glaciers and ice sheets are shrinking, river and lake ice is breaking up earlier, plant and animal geographic ranges are shifting, and plants and trees are blooming sooner.

Effects that scientists had long predicted would result from global climate change are now occurring, such as sea ice loss, accelerated sea level rise, and longer, more intense heat waves.

" The magnitude and rate of climate change and associated risks depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions, and projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages escalate with every increment of global warming."

- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Some changes (such as droughts, wildfires, and extreme rainfall) are happening faster than scientists previously assessed. In fact, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - the United Nations body established to assess the science related to climate change - modern humans have never before seen the observed changes in our global climate, and some of these changes are irreversible over the next hundreds to thousands of years.

Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures will continue to rise for many decades, mainly due to greenhouse gases produced by human activities.

A Degree of Difference

So, the Earth's average temperature has increased about 2 degrees Fahrenheit during the 20th century. What's the big deal?

Read more

The IPCC's Sixth Assessment report, published in 2021, found that human emissions of heat-trapping gases have already warmed the climate by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since 1850-1900. The global average temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5 degrees C (about 3 degrees F) within the next few decades. These changes will affect all regions of Earth.

What's the difference between climate change and global warming?

"Global warming" refers to the long-term warming of the planet. "Climate change" encompasses global warming, but refers to the broader range of changes that are happening to our planet, including rising sea levels; shrinking mountain glaciers; accelerating ice melt in Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic; and shifts in flower/plant blooming times.

detailed answer

The severity of effects caused by climate change will depend on the path of future human activities. More greenhouse gas emissions will lead to more climate extremes and widespread damaging effects across our planet. However, those future effects depend on the total amount of carbon dioxide we emit. So, if we can reduce emissions, we may avoid some of the worst effects.

" The scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human wellbeing and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted global action will miss the brief, rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future." ²

- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Future Effects in the U.S.

U.S. Regional Effects

U.S. Regional Effects

Climate change is bringing different types of challenges to each region of the country. Some of the current and future impacts are summarized below. These findings are from the Third and Fourth National Climate Assessment Reports, released by the U.S. Global Change Research Program.

Is it too late to prevent climate change?

Humans have caused major climate changes to happen already, and we have set in motion more changes still. However, if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, the rise in global temperatures would begin to flatten within a few years. Temperatures would then plateau but remain well-elevated for many, many centuries.

detailed answer

Northeast. Heat waves, heavy downpours, and sea level rise pose increasing challenges to many aspects of life in the Northeast. Infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, and ecosystems will be increasingly compromised. Farmers can explore new crop options, but these adaptations are not cost- or risk-free. Moreover, adaptive capacity, which varies throughout the region, could be overwhelmed by a changing climate. Many states and cities are beginning to incorporate climate change into their planning.

Northwest. Changes in the timing of peak flows in rivers and streams are reducing water supplies and worsening competing demands for water. Sea level rise, erosion, flooding, risks to infrastructure, and increasing ocean acidity pose major threats. Increasing wildfire incidence and severity, heat waves, insect outbreaks, and tree diseases are causing widespread forest die-off.

Southeast. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to the region's economy and environment. Extreme heat will affect health, energy, agriculture, and more. Decreased water availability will have economic and environmental impacts.

Midwest. Extreme heat, heavy downpours, and flooding will affect infrastructure, health, agriculture, forestry, transportation, air and water quality, and more. Climate change will also worsen a range of risks to the Great Lakes.

Southwest. Climate change has caused increased heat, drought, and insect outbreaks. In turn, these changes have made wildfires more numerous and severe. The warming climate has also caused a decline in water supplies, reduced agricultural yields, and triggered heat-related health impacts in cities. In coastal areas, flooding and erosion are additional concerns.

References
References
Header image shows cracked mud stretches across sections of the Panamint Valley. Credit: NPS/Kurt Moses; A degree of concern thermometer image credit: Pixabay/geralt

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.keywords[]
intergovernmental panel on climate change

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Vital Signs of the Planet: Global Climate Change and Global Warming. Long-term effects of global climate change in the United States.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.provider_name
Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Our Trajectory

Earth Will Continue to Warm and the Effects Will Be Profound

The potential future effects of global climate change include more frequent wildfires, longer periods of drought in some regions, and an increase in the wind intensity and rainfall from tropical cyclones. Credit: left - Mike McMillan/USFS, center - Tomas Castelazo / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0, right - NASA.

Global climate change is not a future problem. Changes to Earth's climate driven by increased human emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are already having widespread effects on the environment: glaciers and ice sheets are shrinking, river and lake ice is breaking up earlier, plant and animal geographic ranges are shifting, and plants and trees are blooming sooner.

Effects that scientists had long predicted would result from global climate change are now occurring, such as sea ice loss, accelerated sea level rise, and longer, more intense heat waves.

" The magnitude and rate of climate change and associated risks depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions, and projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages escalate with every increment of global warming."

- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Some changes (such as droughts, wildfires, and extreme rainfall) are happening faster than scientists previously assessed. In fact, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - the United Nations body established to assess the science related to climate change - modern humans have never before seen the observed changes in our global climate, and some of these changes are irreversible over the next hundreds to thousands of years.

Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures will continue to rise for many decades, mainly due to greenhouse gases produced by human activities.

A Degree of Difference

So, the Earth's average temperature has increased about 2 degrees Fahrenheit during the 20th century. What's the big deal?

Read more

The IPCC's Sixth Assessment report, published in 2021, found that human emissions of heat-trapping gases have already warmed the climate by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since 1850-1900. The global average temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5 degrees C (about 3 degrees F) within the next few decades. These changes will affect all regions of Earth.

What's the difference between climate change and global warming?

"Global warming" refers to the long-term warming of the planet. "Climate change" encompasses global warming, but refers to the broader range of changes that are happening to our planet, including rising sea levels; shrinking mountain glaciers; accelerating ice melt in Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic; and shifts in flower/plant blooming times.

detailed answer

The severity of effects caused by climate change will depend on the path of future human activities. More greenhouse gas emissions will lead to more climate extremes and widespread damaging effects across our planet. However, those future effects depend on the total amount of carbon dioxide we emit. So, if we can reduce emissions, we may avoid some of the worst effects.

" The scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human wellbeing and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted global action will miss the brief, rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future." ²

- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Future Effects in the U.S.

U.S. Regional Effects

U.S. Regional Effects

Climate change is bringing different types of challenges to each region of the country. Some of the current and future impacts are summarized below. These findings are from the Third and Fourth National Climate Assessment Reports, released by the U.S. Global Change Research Program.

Is it too late to prevent climate change?

Humans have caused major climate changes to happen already, and we have set in motion more changes still. However, if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, the rise in global temperatures would begin to flatten within a few years. Temperatures would then plateau but remain well-elevated for many, many centuries.

detailed answer

Northeast. Heat waves, heavy downpours, and sea level rise pose increasing challenges to many aspects of life in the Northeast. Infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, and ecosystems will be increasingly compromised. Farmers can explore new crop options, but these adaptations are not cost- or risk-free. Moreover, adaptive capacity, which varies throughout the region, could be overwhelmed by a changing climate. Many states and cities are beginning to incorporate climate change into their planning.

Northwest. Changes in the timing of peak flows in rivers and streams are reducing water supplies and worsening competing demands for water. Sea level rise, erosion, flooding, risks to infrastructure, and increasing ocean acidity pose major threats. Increasing wildfire incidence and severity, heat waves, insect outbreaks, and tree diseases are causing widespread forest die-off.

Southeast. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to the region's economy and environment. Extreme heat will affect health, energy, agriculture, and more. Decreased water availability will have economic and environmental impacts.

Midwest. Extreme heat, heavy downpours, and flooding will affect infrastructure, health, agriculture, forestry, transportation, air and water quality, and more. Climate change will also worsen a range of risks to the Great Lakes.

Southwest. Climate change has caused increased heat, drought, and insect outbreaks. In turn, these changes have made wildfires more numerous and severe. The warming climate has also caused a decline in water supplies, reduced agricultural yields, and triggered heat-related health impacts in cities. In coastal areas, flooding and erosion are additional concerns.

References
References
Header image shows cracked mud stretches across sections of the Panamint Valley. Credit: NPS/Kurt Moses; A degree of concern thermometer image credit: Pixabay/geralt

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.keywords[]
intergovernmental panel on climate change

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Vital Signs of the Planet: Global Climate Change and Global Warming. Long-term effects of global climate change in the United States.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
The Colorado River, one of the most important river systems in the country, is drying up at an alarming rate.

The issues surrounding depleting water levels along the Colorado River basin have become as heated as the arid climate contributing to the moisture-sapping megadrought persisting in the region for decades.

Despite an extremely wet winter that eased the effects of the longstanding drought, regional officials and environmental experts are expressing concern over future severe dips in the water supply and other ramifications dwindling water levels could have on local economies and human health.

The Colorado River is now considered the more endangered river in the world by conservation nonprofit American Rivers.

An ample water supply is a "critical component" of human health and public safety, Sinjin Eberle, Southwest region communications director for the nonprofit American Rivers, told ABC News.

"If there's not a healthy environment, we don't have healthy drinking water supplies, and we don't have healthy ecosystems and we don't have habitat for wildlife," Eberle said. "We don't have sustainability and we don't have certainty in the water supplies."

The Colorado River is one of the most important systems in the country

The Colorado River Basin supplies drinking water to 40 million people in the U.S., as well as two states in Mexico, according to the Bureau of Reclamation. It also fuels hydropower resources in eight states and remains a crucial resource for 30 Tribal Nations and agriculture communities across the West.

The river system supports $1.4 trillion of the annual U.S. economy and 16 million jobs in California, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming-- equivalent to about 1/12 of the total U.S. domestic product, economists at the University of Arizona found in 2015. More than 90% of the country's winter leafy greens and much of its vegetables are grown in Yuma, Arizona -- the state that would experience the most drastic water cuts under current regulations.

Lake Mead was producing 25% less hydroelectricity as its elevation reached a record low at 1,067 feet in December 2021. The reservoir was dangerously close to hitting dead pool status, when water levels are too low to flow downstream to generate power, last June as surface elevation measured in at just 1,043 feet.

This past March, water levels in Lake Mead measured at 1,046 feet, according to the Bureau of Reclamation.

Dead pool status is "not far in the future," and could possibly happen this decade, in the event of five or six consecutive dry winters, Zach Zobel, risk scientists at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, told ABC News.

If the West is not diligent in learning to live within the water system, it could have "serious ramifications" on other sectors, such as the semiconductor industry in Phoenix, a billion-dollar industry that provides tens of thousands of jobs in Arizona, Eberle said.

Without water from the Colorado River, Arizona's gross state product would drop by more than $185 billion in a year and the state would lose more than 2 million jobs, the 2015 report found.

In addition, electricity bills and water bills have the potential to skyrocket, and the region will need to consider building infrastructure for other power sources, such as solar and wind, Eberle said.

"Even more alarming" is that water could get so low that it can not be pumped and delivered to the states, communities and agricultural industries that rely on it, Richard Frank, professor of environmental practice at the University of California Davis School of Law, told ABC News.

The dip in water levels is widely due to climate change

Over the past 20 years, the West has been undergoing a substantial period of drought, much of it driven by anthropogenic, or human-caused, climate change, according to experts.

For every 1 degree Celsius in temperature rise, flow along the Colorado River has dipped 9.3%, scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey announced in 2020. This has led to the depletion of 1.5 billion tons of water, much of is lost to evaporation or lack or melting snowpack, according to the study.

The Colorado River has about 19% less volume than in the year 2000, Eberle said. By 2050, that number is expected to drop to 30% less than in 2000 if temperatures continue to rise, he added.

The Colorado River is over-allocated, experts say

In 1922, the Colorado River Compact divvied up the river's water -- as to how the water supplies from the Colorado River and its tributaries would be allocated -- among the seven states that rely on it. The upper basin states were established as New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming and Colorado, while the lower basin consists of California, Nevada and Arizona. Two states in Mexico -- Baja California and Sonora -- were added to the Compact in the 1940s.

However, the amount of water that was apportioned "was not consistent" and "exceeded significantly" the amount of water that was actually available, even by 1922 standards, Frank said.

"There were overestimations of how much water there would be to allocate among the states," Frank said. "So it was a flawed premise to begin with."

At the time of its inception, those in charge of dividing the water resources assumed they were working with a 17-million acre-foot river, based off an extremely wet period in the beginning of the 20th century, Eberle said. These days, the river is closer to 12 or 11 million acre-feet, he said.

When the contract was signed, there were only about half a million people living in the basin. Fast-forward to the 21st century, and a population explosion in the region with three of the largest cities in the country that rely on the Colorado River -- Phoenix, San Diego and Los Angeles -- has grown that number to more than 40 million, Eberle said.

Climate change over the past century has only worsened the inevitable problem, Frank said.

"So we have an additional challenge of less water availability at a time when we are we're attracting more people who want to reside in the Southwest," Frank said. "That's a problem."

Even in the absence of climate change, the Colorado River would likely be in decline due to the population growth, Zobel said.

1 year of heavy precipitation isn't enough to solve problem

At the start of the fall, the visual evidence of overallocation, combined with years of severe drought, was striking along the Colorado River system. Prominent bathtub rings showing where water levels once were could be seen in Lake Mead and Lake Powell. Parts of Lake Mead were so dry that human remains began to emerge in riverbeds once covered in freshwater.

Then, as winter rolled in, an "amazing and completely unpredicted series of events" occurred, Eberle said.

A series of atmospheric rivers -- essentially rivers in the sky that collect moisture from tropical areas and redistribute the water to other latitudes -- have been pummeling the West Coast with an influx of precipitation since December, bringing round after round of heavy rain and snow to the parched region.

"The snowpack is amazing, and in some ways it kind of takes the foot off the gas in terms of how dire things could be," Eberle said, but added that water levels could just as easily dip to record lows a year from now if urgent measures aren't taken to conserve water.

In the future, the trend will be for greater, longer, more protracted droughts interrupted occasionally, by periods of plentiful rainfall, scientists say.

This year will be an "important case study" on how much of the water that was lost in the past five years from the largest reservoirs can be recovered, Zobel said.

"If things can't recover in the good years, then the situation is still not looking good for the future," Zobel said.

Climate scientists don't expect many "average" years of precipitation anymore, Zobel said. Instead, what will likely happen is either all of the precipitation will come at once, or none at all -- what is referred to the "boom or bust precipitation pattern," he said.

While atmospheric rivers are expected to occur more frequently as global temperatures continue to rise, relying on the uncertainty that these events could occur again is not an adequate management strategy, Eberle said, especially since climate scientists expect snowpacks to trend much leaner in the future.

The influx of moisture into the coast has not yet been added to the water supply in the Colorado River system, but it will once the snowpack melts, the experts said.

In the sub-basin near Durango Colorado, the snowpack is about 180% above normal levels, Eberle said.

"That will bring a lot of water into Lake Powell and Lake Mead eventually," he said.

The immediate steps needed to maintain water levels

It will be up to the federal government to step in and encourage a tightening of water usage and address the imbalance between supply and demand, especially as the population in the Southwest, the fastest-growing region in the country -- continues to implode, the experts said.

The policy needs to include "major" water cuts, especially to the agriculture industry, Zobel said.

It would be "magical thinking" to assume that water from the Colorado River would be indefinitely available for the lower basin states, Frank said.

Officials may be coming to a consensus that too much water is leaving the Colorado River system.

On April 11, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation announced it was considering a landmark proposal that includes scenarios to conserve water by reducing the amount of water released from Glen Canyon Dam or cutting water allotments evenly among all the lower basin states if basin states don't find a way to conserve 4 million acre feet of water in by 2024 -- or roughly 20% of current water usage -- a directive made by Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton last summer.

"We're in the third decade of a historic drought that has caused conditions that the people who built this system would not have imagined," Tommy Beaudreau, deputy secretary of the Interior Department, told reporters on April 11.

Conversation among states to reduce water without federal intervention have become "very fractious and difficult," Frank said, adding that Mexico's entitlement further complicates matters.

The Interior Department will have the "ultimate say," Frank added.

The Biden Administration will also be providing a $15.4 billion investment to enhance the West's resilience to drought, which will include reducing water demand, maximizing water resources and protecting the communities along the Colorado River Basin.

Some of those solutions should include the modernization of agriculture industry systems, which uses up to 80% of the water supply in several regions, the experts said.

Water concerns are so rampant in Arizona that the city of Scottsdale cut off water delivery to Rio Verde Hills, an affluent neighborhood on the outskirts of the city.

"We have to address the imbalance between how much water there is, how much water there is going to be, and how much water is demanded for various aspects of life, like agriculture, drinking water in cities, and for recreation and water for the environment -- a key component of the sustainability of human health and public safety across the basin," Eberle said.

If the problem isn't solved, lack of adequate water supply will have a "profound effect" on communities and businesses in the West and the nation overall, Frank said.

"What does Tom Cruise say in 'Mission Impossible?' Hope is not a strategy," Eberle said.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Here's what will happen if Colorado River system doesn't recover from 'historic drought'

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
The issues surrounding depleting water levels along the Colorado River basin have become as heated as the arid climate contributing to the moisture-sapping megadrought.

# data[].attributes.headline
How the Colorado River water levels impact Law

# data[].attributes.subject
How the Colorado River water levels impact Law

# data[].attributes.body
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877343518300770

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
During the last 50 years, construction of dams in the western United States declined. This is partly because of increasing recognition of diverse and unintended social-ecological consequences of dams. Today, resource managers are recognizing the wide array of tradeoffs and are including a more diverse group of stakeholders in decision making for individual dams. Yet decisions at the regional scale maintain a focus on a limited number of resources and objectives, leading to inefficient and inequitable outcomes. Social-ecological changes compounded by climate change challenge this management paradigm. Increasing water demands for humans and the environment and renewed interest in hydropower present opportunities for operations that include climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies while considering tradeoffs and equitable responses at the regional scale.

Introduction

Historians typically summarize the evolution of water resource development as beginning with individual, single purpose projects. With time, authorizing legislation and project planning have become more complex and wide ranging, such that individual projects typically have multiple purposes, and, in many cases, multiple projects with multiple purposes have been funded by the same authorizing legislation and are operated as a unified system. This sequence of development schemes necessarily has broadened the assessment of the benefits and costs of river regulation and inevitably introduced both regional ⁷ and segment-specific ⁸ considerations into the decision framework for operating dams and diversions.

In the case of the Colorado River basin (CRB), regional considerations include the allocation and distribution of water that is diverted for consumptive uses, the production and allocation of hydroelectricity generated by powerplants at dams, and the recovery of wide-ranging fish species that have threatened or endangered status under the Endangered Species Act. Segment-scale considerations are numerous and differ depending on location within the CRB and include recreational, ecosystem, and tribal concerns. Today, there are many segment-scale multi-stakeholder programs in the CRB, including the Upper Colorado River Basin Endangered Fish Recovery Program and the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program. While these segment-specific programs frequently consider a broad range of resource priorities, regional considerations often constrain segment-specific management. However, the regional considerations typically only include a narrow range of resource priorities.

In most of the CRB, decisions about the daily pattern of reservoir release are made based on trade-off analysis among a suite of river resources unique to each segment. However, larger-scale decisions about water storage and allocation, such as the division of water supply between the Upper Basin states and the Lower Basin states, are determined primarily by national and regional considerations that consider local social and/or ecological benefits and costs to a limited extent. During the past 15 years, watershed runoff has been declining and reservoir storage, especially in Lakes Powell and Mead, has declined significantly [1 **]. Regional decisions and new negotiations concerning water supply allocation during times of protracted drought have the potential to have profound impacts on river resources at the segment scale, because the quantity of water transferred from upstream to downstream reservoirs has a strong effect on river ecosystems and societal values. We argue that a broader set of benefits and costs could be considered in the decision process to integrate segment-specific and regional environmental and social concerns into large-scale water supply management decisions.

More specifically, regional decisions in reservoir operations throughout the CRB in response to climate change and structural change in the energy sector could include impacts on resources at segment and at regional scales. As dam operations are reconfigured to incorporate climate related objectives, thoughtful analysis of water supply management and energy generation and its impacts on the regional scale is vital [2, 3, 4]. Resource management strategies that could incorporate both regional and segment-specific approaches to management of reservoirs to address resource challenges such as warming river temperatures, mitigation of electricity sector emissions, and the inclusion of diverse cultural preferences in decision making.

Section snippets

Addressing change for wildlife, energy, and culture with existing water storage and hydropower facilities

Large dams are a locus of coupled social-ecological systems, offering opportunities to restructure tradeoffs and possibly provide co-benefits when attempting to manage for climate change at the regional and segment scale. Moreover, as drought and hydrological variability increase, the operational flexibility of dams may provide opportunities to respond to, and mitigate for, rapid changes that may be otherwise impossible, excessively costly, or untimely with other structurally based management

Conclusion

Managing novel ecological and ever-changing human systems is no small task; central to this challenge is managing the existing novel ecosystem functions and services that have been created by the dramatic development of dams and diversions in the CRB while at the same time balancing the values associated with water, energy, and cultural ecosystem services at the segment and regional scales. Here, we describe a holistic approach to planning for reservoir reoperations that might address the

Funding

This work was coordinated through the National Science Foundation Research Coordination Network Grant #1617413. This work was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Conflict of interest statement

Nothing declared.

References and recommended reading

Papers of particular interest, published within the period of review, have been highlighted as:

Brown trout in the Lees Ferry reach of the Colorado River: evaluation of causal hypotheses and potential interventions
U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2018-1069

The serial discontinuity concept of lotic ecosystems

View full text

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Incorporating social-ecological considerations into basin-wide responses to climate change in the Colorado River Basin

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
During the last 50 years, construction of dams in the western United States declined. This is partly because of increasing recognition of diverse and ...

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Colorado River water cut back - except for California

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
As California and six other western states scramble to reach a deal to cut use of Colorado River water, what will the federal government do?

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
The Red Cross provides drought preparedness tips by conserving water and limiting water use. Learn more about drought preparedness and water conservation today!

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Jessica Ellis

Jessica Ellis

Ecology is the study of how organisms interact with each other and their surroundings in a given environment. Ecologists spend their lives compiling data on ecosystems, giving both the scientific and broader world valuable data on how species are surviving and what is happening to the environment. Although many ecologists choose to specialize in a particular type of ecosystem, such as marine ecology or freshwater ecology, these ecosystems don't exist in a vacuum. The planet Earth is one vast ecosystem in and of itself, and global ecology is the study of how all organisms interact and survive in their planetary environment.

Since the earliest days of scientific study, attempts have been made to observe and report on the flora and fauna of every ecosystem. With 20th and 21st century advances in travel, technology and communication, field scientists have been able to share gathered data with nearly impossible speed and accuracy. As many governments and influential groups have focused their attention on creating the concept of a global community, many people have begun to think of the planet as one interdependent ecosystem worthy of study. These advances have created a shift in thinking that has contributed to the creation of many highly-funded and lauded centers for global ecology, such as the Carnegie Department of Global Ecology at Stanford University.

There are many jobs in global ecology that do not require a science background.

Global ecology is a tremendously complex form of science that requires a broad spectrum of knowledge. If it is accepted that the planet is an interdependent system, every aspect of every local ecosystem must be considered to fully understand a problem. For instance, if a logging or mining project starts at one end of a river, global ecologists might look at not only the localized effects, but how the runoff would effect the whole river, ecosystems far down stream, and even the possible added pollution to the ocean at the end of the river. Additionally, scientists might study how the added pollution would affect the composition of the air, how far any fumes or gases might rise, if harmful vapors might be absorbed into clouds, and where the contaminated rain might then fall.

Studying the way that logging not only affects the forests, but also water and air quality, is an example of global ecology.

Clearly, global ecologists need a tremendous amount of data from specialized studies in order to conduct their work. Keeping tabs on Earth-wide environmental issues, such as the thinning of the ozone layer, require dozens if not hundreds of dedicated field researchers obtaining information in different areas around the globe. While a relatively new form of research, global ecology can capitalize and even invent new technology to improve communication speed and data sharing, and even boost relationships with other nations through scientific collaboration.

Production chemicals, such as those found in aerosols, can be damaging to an area's ecology.

Some critics consider global ecology to be heavily biased toward environmentalists and anti-industry by nature. As a serious science, global ecology is motivated primarily by the search for data, rather than for political or even environmental concerns, but by nature it has certain overtones consistent with an environmentalist position. Most research on global ecology suggests that no one part of the world is expendable; that to protect humans, people must protect the Earth.

Jessica Ellis

With a B.A. in theater from UCLA and a graduate degree in screenwriting from the American Film Institute, Jessica is passionate about drama and film. She has many other interests, and enjoys learning and writing about a wide range of topics in her role as a AllTheScience writer.

Jessica Ellis

With a B.A. in theater from UCLA and a graduate degree in screenwriting from the American Film Institute, Jessica is passionate about drama and film. She has many other interests, and enjoys learning and writing about a wide range of topics in her role as a AllTheScience writer.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Global ecology is the study of how organisms interact with each other and their surroundings in an environment. As global ecology...

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Skip to main content

The .gov means it's official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you're on a federal government site.

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
View current Drought Information for the Colorado River Basin Watershed. Explore impacts on Agriculture and Water Supply, and view detailed Historical Conditions for the Colorado River Basin.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
We live in a world where humans are increasingly changing the physical and chemical environment at a global scale. Climate is warming, the populations of many species are in decline, pollution is affecting ecosystems and human health, and human societies now face new risks in terms of sea-level changes, disease, food security, and climate extremes.

This has fostered a greater awareness by scientists of ecology at spatial scales larger than ecosystems. Scientists who study global environmental change are interested in learning how drivers of environmental change (including human population growth and consumption, energy use, land use changes, and pollution) impact biological systems across many scales - from the level of the individual organism, to populations, communities, and ecosystems. They study structure, process, and change within the context of global systems.

The emergence of the global perspective has been driven by the development of tools such as aerial photography, remote sensing satellites, geographic information systems (GIS), handheld global positioning systems (GPS), and radiotelemetry that allow scientists to view the environment at larger scales. As well, the ability to analyze this information is constantly growing thanks to better computers, new statistical methods, and computer models.

Landscape ecology is a subdiscipline of global ecology that focuses on understanding the extent, origin, and ecological consequence of spatial heterogeneity across a range of scales. Landscape ecology specifically recognizes that disturbance, whether anthropogenic or caused by natural processes, creates spatial heterogeneity that is the normal condition of ecosystems.

Concepts and methods from landscape ecology, which focus specifically on causes and consequences of spatial heterogeneity for ecological processes, have converged with research efforts in population and community ecology to create the recognized area of study called spatial ecology. Spatial ecology centers on how specific spatial arrangements of organisms, populations, and landscapes influence ecological dynamics. In particular, much of spatial ecology is closely related to conservation biology because it emphasizes the study of habitat loss and fragmentation caused by human activities.

Scientists in these fields of global ecology are tackling a whole host of environmental issues that we face in the twenty-first century, and the field is rapidly growing. To develop a rich understanding of global ecology, begin with this introductory overview, and then explore the more than twenty other summaries you'll find below.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Global and regional ecology considers the application of the science of ecology to the management of natural resources. Articles in this room introduce these emerging fields.