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The impact of COVID-19 on Commonwealth countries

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The impact of COVID-19 on Commonwealth countries

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What is the impact of COVID-19 on Commonwealth countries’ global and intra Commonwealth goods and services exports, and what are the prospects for trade recovery?

The pandemic has highly impacted the global economy and the GDP of the Commonwealth nations.  As a consequence, the trade and supply activities also got disrupted.  The import and export activities faced significant challenges, which further affected the social and economic condition of the commonwealth countries during Covid-19.

Commonwealth nations lost trade worth US$345 billion approximately during 2020, which included $60 billion in the context of intra-commonwealth trade. All the Commonwealth members have been affected with a fall in FDI inflows that resulted in a loss of around US$153 billion (The Commonwealth, 2021).

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The pandemic impacted the manufacturing sectors, when the Government declared lockdown and restriction in transport. As a result, the intra-commonwealth goods were not delivered. Furthermore, there was a delay in the export and import of goods in international trades. GVC disruptions also affected production and negatively affected trade and employment across the Commonwealth states. In context of Commonwealth nations, pandemic has caused trade disruptions on the export of goods to Australia, the UK, the EU, China and the USA (Khorana et al., 2020)..

It is also reported that there is a reduction in the export of goods in the international provinces like China. GVC contagion influenced the Chinese exports, reducing by 40-45% during 2020 to prevent the spreading of the Corona Virus (Khorana et al., 2020). . However, it had a highly adverse impact on the economy and trade.  Moreover, it is also observed that there is drop in the demand for several international goods due to the restriction and policies by the Government to prevent the spreading of Covid-19. Hence, bilateral trade growth is also influenced due to disruptions in supply and demand. High scale of output losses in the emerging markets has also influenced the Foreign Direct Investment during the pandemic. As a result, the overall trade scenario is affected with the domestic traders exposed to high vulnerability.

In context of recovery, expansion of merchandised trade can be a prospect for quick recovery of world trade. It is expected that merchandise trade in the global platform would increase by 8.0% in 2021 (World Trade Organization, 2021).  Ramping up the production of vaccines and delivering them to poor countries would further help to improve the trade scenario as supply chain and business activities would be active once again. Moreover, the members can internally support one another to overcome the issues in export and trade.

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Identify and evaluate the sources of future growth including from the Commonwealth advantage. 

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Identify and evaluate the sources of future growth including from the Commonwealth advantage. 

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The Commonwealth states can recover from the negative impacts on the trade by adopting technology and digital tools. The members can focus on mutual support and offer benefits by taking initiatives like Blue Charter, Commonwealth’s Connectivity Agenda and Sustainable Energy Transition Agenda for trade recovery (The Commonwealth, 2021).

Integrating ICT in the business infrastructure can be effective for the Commonwealth nations to improve the trade activities. Digitisation is correlated to labour productivity and can have a positive influence on the economy and poverty-related policies (Ashton-Hart, 2020). Besides, changes in the Supply chains along with taking up digital technology in the businesses offers good scope for enhancing traders. Global value chains can also be accessed as they are a good source for communication and enhancing trade growth in domestic and global platforms. Previously, in 2017, only 45% of the Commonwealth members had access to digital technology and the internet. However, at present, there is high scope for accessing the internet and communication technology by the members with the purpose of online trades.

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The Commonwealth ‘Blue Charter’ agreement involves 54 members actively cooperating to resolve ocean-related problems and focus on sustainable development (The Commonwealth Blue Charter, 2021). Support from the Blue Charter includes Action Groups for the development of the member states. Hence, the Action Groups of Blue Charter can aid in the development of digital tools and technology for the traders in the Commonwealth countries. It can further involve training techniques and policies for the employees in context of digital transformation that can eventually help open new opportunities for growth and businesses. The SDGs undertaken by the Blue Charter Agreement can further influence the economy positively, opening scope for new businesses and trade (The Commonwealth, 2018).

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Commonwealth’s Connectivity Agenda involves the vision of the leaders to expand intra-Commonwealth trade and achieve US$2 Trillion in 2030 (The Commonwealth, 2021). The plan further includes a focus on investment and trade. This platform can be beneficial for the Commonwealth countries to exchange experience and practices for investment. The Connectivity Agenda would also act as a source for opening new opportunities for the poor states by investment in e-commerce, e-government services, digital skills and machinery (The Commonwealth, 2021). Integration of digital technologies with the help of this platform can also boost up intra-Commonwealth trade.

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Sustainable Energy Transition Agenda recommends all the members of Commonwealth work cooperatively and take necessary measures to reduce energy wastage (The Commonwealth, 2021). Sustainable resources of energy in trade and business can not only help increase profit and overcome the challenges of Covid-19 impacts but also contribute to the nation’s economy. The three pillars of in this Agenda are Inclusive Energy Transition, Enabling Frameworks and Technology and Innovation (The Commonwealth, 2021). Hence, it can be observed that this agenda can support the nations to integrate ICT and transform the business procedures for better trade services and overcome the issues in business operations.

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Khorana, S., Martínez-Zarzoso, I. and Ali, S., (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 on the Global and Intra-Commonwealth Trade in Goods. [Online]. Available at: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Khorana%2C+S.%2C+Mart%C3%ADnez-Zarzoso%2C+I.+and+Ali%2C+S.%2C+2021.+The+Impact+of+COVID-19+on+the+Global+and+Intra-Commonwealth+Trade+in+Goods.+&btnG=. [ Accessed 28 December 2021].

The Commonwealth, (2021). US$345 billion loss in trade for Commonwealth countries due to pandemic, The Commonwealth. [Online] Available at: https://thecommonwealth.org/media/news/us345-billion-loss-trade-commonwealth-countries-due-pandemic [Accessed 28 December 2021].

The Commonwealth (2018.) Blue economy, The Commonwealth. [Online] Available at: https://thecommonwealth.org/blue-economy [Accessed 28 December 2021].

The Commonwealth (2021). Commonwealth countries target inclusive shift to clean energy, The Commonwealth. [Online] Available at: https://thecommonwealth.org/media/news/commonwealth-countries-target-inclusive-shift-clean-energy [Accessed 28 December 2021].

The Commonwealth, (2021). Connectivity Agenda | The Commonwealth. [Online]. Available at: https://thecommonwealth.org/connectivity-agenda. [Accessed 28 December 2021]

The Commonwealth Blue Charter, (2021). About us – Commonwealth Bluecharter. [Online] Available at: https://bluecharter.thecommonwealth.org/about-us/. [Accessed 28 December 2021]