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This article discusses how the current pandemic has altered the advertising strategies of various industries such as the automotive, restaurant, and wireless communications industries. The advertising strategies of these industries have shifted to a more empathetic tone by ensuring that the companies are here for the customers during this trying time.

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In Numerator's early look at the impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on advertising strategy, we examined advertising impact across four select categories: disinfectants, paper towels, cold cough & sinus, and personal cleansing. The impact of the pandemic has now stretched across nearly every category, interrupting the release of many brands' planned creative ad campaigns, and resulting in a freeze of new creatives and noticeably fewer breaking ads across all media types.

As we enter the second week of social distancing and government-mandated shelter-in-place orders, Numerator is beginning to see a rise in new, breaking creatives, many with COVID-19 related messaging. These breaking ads span across categories such as automobiles, internet-related technology, retail, restaurants and wireless communications.

Auto Companies Offer Flexibility and Benefits

As car companies look to maintain sales throughout the Coronavirus pandemic, many are offering deferred payments and interest-free financing in their latest advertisements. With many consumers understandably nervous about finances, the promise of deferred payments gives shoppers confidence when shopping for a new car. Some companies are offering additional benefits such as complimentary OnStar and Wifi, and complimentary pickup and delivery for online shopping.

Internet-Related Technology Emphasizes Strong and Secure Connections

With many workers shifting to remote working, internet-related technology companies like NordVPN, Bluescape, Comcast, CenturyLink, and others are changing messaging to let you know they'll be providing strong and secure internet connections for those new to working from home. With additional increased demand on home internet from children on spring break or extended leaves from school, the demand on in-home internet will be reaching new highs with work, streaming, online school work, and video games.

Wireless Communications Assure Reliability

Similar to internet-related technology providers, the wireless communication category seems to be very aware of the changes prompted by working from home, being out of work, and extended school closures by assuring customers that their signal strength will remain strong. Several companies have also advertised their commitment to increase data usage allotment for customers free of charge. For those looking for a new phone or accessories, messaging is encouraging online shopping and offering free delivery for online purchases.

Retailers Take a Variety of Messaging Approaches

As one of our essential businesses during this time, retail stores are releasing new advertising offering a wide range of messaging following Coronavirus. Some stores have added messaging about new store hours, increased focus on cleanliness, and commitment to maintaining product supply. If there was one overarching theme to the latest messaging released from retail stores, it would simply be that they're here for us, or as Walmart puts it in their latest ads, "We stand with you".

Restaurants Pivot to Takeout and Delivery Messaging

With several states prohibiting dining-in at restaurants and fast-food chains, and consumers all over the U.S. practicing social distancing, restaurants and quick-service restaurants have been quick to pivot their messaging to focus on delivery and takeout/pick-up options. A majority of restaurants have even gone so far as to waive delivery fees to make it even easier for consumers to continue enjoying the food they're used to. Another theme consistent throughout the latest creatives has been an increased commitment to cleanliness and hygiene, with restaurants like Burger King and Little Caesars even advertising new contactless payment and pick-up options available in their drive-throughs and stores.

These examples are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to new messaging being introduced that references the Coronavirus or changes brought on by the pandemic. Other categories with new Coronavirus messaging include airlines, beer, casinos, furniture, insurance, travel and many more.

To help you monitor shifts and messaging in ad spend, Numerator has developed a custom attribute tracking flag in our Ad Intel solution to automatically capture advertisements featuring Coronavirus content and messaging. We have also started identifying and collecting native advertising and branded content related to COVID-19 in our Branded Content Intel platform.

We will continue to provide insights and updates into what we are seeing at a market level. Please work with your Numerator Representative for brand, category or media-specific detail, or reach out to us for more information about our data and solutions.

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Update: The Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Advertising Strategy

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Numerator has been actively monitoring the shifts in U.S. consumer buying behavior caused by the impact of COVID-19 by leveraging data from Numerator Insights. Along with the shifts in buying behavior, we've been tracking changes in print and online promotions, and adjustments made in advertisers' media spend and messaging.

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Digital Advertising Affected Negatively by Covid-19

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Digital Advertising Affected Negatively by Covid-19

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This article has data from a survey conducted by the Internet Advertising Bureau that describes how many many programmatic providers and media platforms have taken a hit from the pandemic. More than 200 media platforms were surveyed, and some of the survey's findings found that 98% of publishers expect a decrease in revenue in 2020. Additionally, 86% of publishers said that advertisers had requested to completely pause their ad campaigns. The article also suggests how the drop in bidding prices for ad words could be beneficial for bigger companies.

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The ripple effects from the COVID-19 crisis continue to spread throughout the business world, with the advertising industry now feeling its destructive effects. Those were quantified yesterday in a new Internet Advertising Bureau survey that shows a steep decline expected in ad spending across digital media

The IAB surveyed more than 200 U.S. media properties programmatic providers and media platforms. By nature of its membership, TV was not heavily represented. In fact, TV advertising may come out with less damage than newspapers and print media. But for digital ads, 98 percent of publishers are expecting a decrease in revenue in 2020. According to the survey, news publishers were the most vulnerable with 88 percent of the survey respondents saying they'd had ad buyers ask to cancel campaigns; 86 percent said advertisers had asked to pause ads. The IAB said effects are being felt across ad-supported websites, "as well as companies that provide technical infrastructure to support selling ads" such as network services, brand safety and attribution services.

The IAB survey doesn't come as a complete surprise, although the 98 percent number is steeper than many observers expected. At the end of March, Gartner reported that 65 percent of chief marketing officers (CMOs) surveyed were planning to cut marketing budgets as a result of business disruptions from the coronavirus. The survey showed that 34 percent of businesses expect "reduced levels of business operations" due to COVID-19, 10 percent expect operations to be severely restricted, and 2 percent will cease business operations.

While digital campaigns jumped out in terms of actual quantification, the toll on the newspaper business - already in crisis over the past two years - could be more devastating. L.A. Times President and Chief Operating Officer Chris Argentieri said on Wednesday (April 15) that the newspaper had lost more than 33 percent of its revenue since the crisis hit in earnest last month. "The Times has lost more than one-third of its advertising revenue and expects to lose more than half of its advertising revenue in the coming months," Argentieri wrote.

TV, although the production costs and advertising time costs are much higher, may actually come out ahead in the crisis. According to industry media trade Digiday, TV time is selling at bargain basement rates during April due to an early spate of postponed campaigns. But, "At the same time, some advertisers that had pulled out have begun to push money back into the TV ad market," the report said. "We have clients that, in the initial couple weeks in March, wanted to get off the air and are now slowly coming back on and readjusting," said one agency executive.

While the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the TV ad market in April, "it is unclear how long the change will last," the report noted. "In contrast to the April inventory surplus, May and especially June are slated to see an overload of advertiser demand, the agency executives said," according to the report, which quoted another agency executive as saying, "June is completely tight right now because everyone shifted to the end of the second quarter."

It would make sense that lower costs could work in favor of non-traditional internet advertising, including Google Ad Words and social media campaigns. The wild card here is the amount of small businesses that feed the revenue of ad words and social platforms. Neither Facebook nor Google break down their revenue by business size. If small business start dropping appreciably the client base will drop. If that happens, the bidding price of ad words and social media ads could drop as well. Would bigger companies jump on those more affordable opportunities? Time will tell.

"Both Facebook and Twitter (TWTR) have already warned that they will take a hit from the downturn. Alphabet's Google (GOOGL) no doubt is seeing the same effects, but so far hasn't discussed the matter. Facebook's disclosure was on the vague side. The social network said in a blog post that it has 'seen a weakening in our ads business in countries taking aggressive actions to reduce the spread of Covid-19.' Traffic isn't an issue - Facebook has seen record use almost every day, but it isn't monetizing much of the growth on platforms like Messenger and WhatsApp," said Barrons.

Overall, viewership of most every media is up during the coronavirus crisis, although consumers have widely differing opinions of the trustworthiness of sources, as seen in the PYMNTS COVID-19 tracker. Therein, however, lies another problem. Brands typically shy away from bad news. But in this case consumers don't mind seeing brands in the context of the coronavirus.

"It may be understandable for advertisers to shy from "negative" or "anxious" content like coverage of a pandemic," says eMarketer. "But March 2020 research from Integral Ad Science suggests those concerns may be misplaced: Just 16% of US internet users surveyed said they would have a less favorable opinion of a brand whose ad was adjacent to coronavirus-related content. Almost eight in 10 respondents said such placement wouldn't change their view of a brand."

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Digital Ad Business Withers Under COVID-19 | PYMNTS.com

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The ripple effects from the COVID-19 crisis continue to spread throughout the business world, with the advertising industry now feeling its destructive effects. Those were quantified yesterday in a new Internet Advertising Bureau survey that shows a steep decline expected in ad spending across digital media The IAB surveyed more than 200 U.S.

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This article provides an industry by industry analysis of how different metrics such as impressions, clicks, and ad spend have fluctuated since the start of the year, paying special attention to the fluctuations in the weeks since the World Health Organization declared Covid-19 as a worldwide pandemic.

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Bookmark this page, we'll be updating it with the latest available statistics. Last update on March 31, 2020 includes data up to March 29, 2020.
It's clear that, depending on industry vertical, COVID-19 is having a different impact on ad spend and performance. And everyone has a theory about which ones will come out ahead.

But in digital advertising, it's never a good idea to base your strategy on hunches - you've got to look at the numbers. That's why below we're sharing an analysis based on data from 56,000 active campaigns inside the Acquisio platform.

Which industries are reducing their investment in advertising? How are the industry-specific shifts affecting impressions, clicks, CPCs, and CTRs? Read on to find out if the data backs up what experts are predicting.

Keep Calm And Campaign On

The following verticals were included in our analysis. We'll take an especially detailed look at the automotive sector and local advertisers.

1. Financial

2. Medical

3. Real Estate

4. Legal Services

5. Leisure & Recreation

6. Fitness

7. Education & Employment

8. Travel & Tourism

9. Automotive (broken down into dealerships, rental, repair, and parts businesses)

10. Local Businesses (broken down into retailers and service providers of different types)

For those in the TL;DR club, here's a short summary of our findings before we get into the weeds.

Our data backs up the idea that the hardest hit verticals are the ones you might expect: anything related to travel or physical locations. Consumer demand dropped so significantly that these industries opted to pause campaigns and cut ad spend dramatically.

On the other hand, we're seeing that local grocery establishments that are still advertising are seeing great CPCs and high impressions and clicks. This is an opportunity for any agency serving local audiences to take note of.

Finally, there's one very encouraging finding. When we look at the numbers many industries are hurt by COVID-19 but not to an irreparable extent. Despite alarming reports, from a digital advertising perspective, many verticals are continuing to invest for now.

That's good news for marketers. And it makes sense. While it is tempting to cut back on marketing during a crisis, the reality is that you need to attract potential customers now more than ever.

How the Study Was Conducted

Our analysis is based on data from 56,000 campaigns, created by 7,500 advertiser accounts inside the Acquisio platform from the beginning of 2020 until now. The data comes only from North American campaigns.

Each table shows a week-by-week analysis for each industry since the beginning of 2020. We pay special attention to weeks 11 to 13 of 2020 corresponding to the dates of March 9 to 29, 2020.

This timeframe is crucial. March 11th, 2020 is the date that the World Health Organization officially declared COVID-19 as a worldwide pandemic. And March 16th, 2020 is the date President Donald Trump announced his support for 14 days of social distancing. This is also the period when we began seeing significant drops in global stocks.

Our study looks at medians rather than averages in order to prevent data from being skewed by outliers.

Industry by Industry Analysis

Financial

But in week 13 (March 23-29) we are seeing drops in every metric: impressions, clicks, and ad spend. We will monitor this trend closely to see if it continues in the following weeks.

Medical

Because of the particular effect that COVID-19 has on the health industry, we felt it wise to split our medical vertical data into alternative, elective, and non-elective.

In alternative medicine, which includes acupuncture and chiropractic clinics, impressions have been stable, but clicks saw a 43% drop in the past two weeks. There was also a 36% drop in ad spend. This indicates that alternative medicine practitioners are likely to be pausing campaigns.

There was a slight drop in elective medical advertising impressions in the past two weeks while CPC and CTR hold steady. Time will tell if this trend continues, but indeed many elective health services will likely be closing fully or partially during social distancing. (The elective medical vertical includes services like cosmetic surgery, nutritionists, and dermatologists.)

Non-elective medical advertising was doing well during the first two weeks of social distancing, but the past week we are finally seeing them drop across all metrics. This may be linked to the fact that many hospitals are reducing their service offerings to ensure they can handle the influx of COVID-19 patients.

Real Estate

The real estate sector is seeing a slight drop in both impressions and clicks, while CPC and CTR remain steady.

Legal Services

The legal services is another industry where all metrics have been generally consistent since the beginning of 2020. There has been a slow decline in clicks and impressions in more recent weeks.

Leisure & Recreation

Leisure & Recreation includes businesses like bowling alleys, spas, and movie theaters. In 2019, impressions and clicks for the first two weeks of March saw a boost. It is spring break after all!

So it's especially notable that for the same timeframe in 2020 we are seeing instead a drop in both metrics. People are just not going outside their homes for recreational activities.

Fitness

The Fitness category includes businesses offering dance classes, gym memberships, yoga lessons, and more. So far, there is no indication of a positive or negative impact from COVID-19.

Education & Employment

COVID-19 has precipitated worldwide school closures at every level of education. But despite this, the metrics reflect no drastic changes in this industry's advertising practices. We will be keeping a close eye on this.

While it is predicted that enrollment from international applicants will fall, there is also a possibility of an increase in local enrollment. One effect most seem to agree on is that competition will be even fiercer when it comes to finding potential applicants. A strong, digital-focused advertising strategy will be needed.

Travel & Tourism

Compared to the same time period in 2019, clicks and impressions should be rising as consumers book their spring break vacations. Ad spend has also cratered, dropping by 74%. CPC is rising while CTR remains stable.

Some reports do not expect a full recovery for . But we get an idea of how that could begin happening sooner rather than later by looking at Singapore where COVID-19 cases are beginning to stabilize. There, as social distancing requirements lift, there has been an increase in domestic bookings . Experts predict the same is likely to happen in North America down the line, with an increase in domestic road trips and staycations.

Automotive Sector

COVID-19 has slowed both car sales and manufacturing in the US. As few in the industry are yet to shift over to a digital retailing strategy, showroom visits are still a must for most dealers. So social distancing is absolutely taking its toll.

But the automotive industry is a strong and resilient one. Already, we are seeing pivots towards payment plans better suited for the COVID-19 economic reality. And NADA was successful at lobbying the Trump administration to classify automotive services as essential because of their role in ensuring mobility for frontline workers and the general public.

For our purposes, we'll focus on how the automotive industry is reacting on the digital advertising front. The automotive industry comprises both auto dealerships and related industries like automotive rentals, parts, and repairs. Thus, our analysis is broken down into:

Of those verticals, the ones that have seen a COVID-19 impact are the rental Industry and dealerships. Automotive repair and parts, for now, seem unaffected in terms of PPC metrics.

The car rental industry has seen a significant drop in both impressions and clicks. This mirrors what we see in the Leisure & Recreation and Travel & Tourism verticals where we noted an increase during the spring break period in 2019. Ad spend is also down for car rental businesses by 37%. On the other hand, CPC, and CTR remain stable.

For both luxury and mass-market dealerships, impressions have been slowly dropping since January, although the trend was similar in 2019, so it is possible this is linked to seasonality. The notable difference is that in the past two weeks we began to see a drop in clicks.

Ad spend has also been dropping across dealerships, but time will tell whether the trend will continue. We are not seeing a difference in ad spend or performance between luxury and mass-market dealerships.

Local Businesses

Local businesses lack the deep pockets of large corporations to have a financial buffer through COVID-19. Additionally, many rely substantially on foot traffic. Without a doubt, local advertisers have been one of the most seriously impacted, especially if they happen to fall into a category qualified as "non-essential" in government guidelines.

Luckily, both governments and large corporations are offering measures to support local business. and have both made ad credits available to small businesses. Plus, community organizations are stepping up to spread the word on the importance of supporting local business networks.

Times are tough, but opportunities exist. The businesses that continue to be smart in how they can maintain consumer interest will bounce back the fastest. With that said, let's dive into some local PPC data.

Our analysis of local advertisers can be broken down into Retailers and Service Providers, which are then further broken down into subcategories:

Advertising seems to be continuing for some local businesses. Local retailers related to the home and electronics & appliances and local service providers both general and contractors have been stable.

Median impressions, clicks, and ad spend have been steadily dropping for local hobby retailers which include clothing stores, collectibles stores, pet stores and various businesses of that type.

Local grocery retailers are unsurprisingly seeing an increase in impressions. As restaurants and people stock up their fridges and cook more of their own meals.

We'll Be Updating This Page with the Latest Data

Without a crystal ball to predict what the next development in the pandemic will be and when things will stabilize, the next best thing is to keep a close eye on week-by-week industry shifts.

That's why we'll be updating this blog post with the latest vertical-specific developments in ad performance and spend. With this initiative we hope to support the digital advertising community in forming data-backed strategies.
Special thanks to Acquisio's Lead Research Scientist, Tamas Frajka, for gathering the data, supporting our analysis, and generally being a mensch.
Images:

All graphics: Marie-Michelle Ouellet

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The Impact of COVID-19 on PPC: Industry-by-Industry

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Bookmark this page, we'll be updating it with the latest available statistics. Last update on March 31, 2020 includes data up to March 29, 2020. It's clear that, depending on industry vertical, COVID-19 is having a different impact on ad spend and performance. And everyone has a theory about which ones will come out ahead.

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Google and Facebook Not Immune to Decline in Digital Advertising

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Google and Facebook Not Immune to Decline in Digital Advertising

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As many publishers and advertisers have been impacted by the pandemic, even Google and Facebook have seen a downturn in advertising. The prices of Facebook ads have decreased by about 35 to 50 percent in the last few weeks. Google has had to implement a "sensitive events" policy that restricts ads that relate to the Coronavirus.

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Though ad sales at the two companies are expected to be down, they are likely to fare better than smaller peers and publishers.

While the economic fallout from the coronavirus is hurting Google's and Facebook's ad businesses, what little spending there is will still flow to them. Credit... Jason Henry for The New York Times

OAKLAND, Calif. - Google's and Facebook's advertising businesses, which have roughly tripled in combined size over the last five years, may be headed for a rare stumble as the coronavirus pushes the global economy into a tailspin.

Once-abundant travel and entertainment ads have all but disappeared from Google search. The prices for Facebook advertisements are at record lows. And Wall Street analysts are estimating that annual revenues will decline for the first time in the history of the two companies.

It's the type of downturn that traditional media has experienced before, but was hard to imagine for the duopoly that accounts for more than half of the spending in online advertising.

And yet as gloomy as the situation may appear for Google and Facebook, the outlook for the rest of the digital advertising industry is even bleaker. What little digital spending there is will still flow to them, leaving smaller social media platforms and publishers out in the cold.

"To the extent that people are still spending, it will be even more concentrated with Google and Facebook," said Nicole Perrin, principal analyst at research firm eMarketer. "They are likely going to end up in a stronger position after all this is over."

A shakeout is starting to take shape. The review site Yelp said on Thursday that it was laying off 1,000 employees and furloughing another 1,100. In an email, Jeremy Stoppelman, Yelp's chief executive, said it needed to cut costs in the face of stay-at-home measures that have hammered restaurants, bars and other local business - the company's main advertisers.

After projecting revenue to increase between 5 percent and 11 percent in the first quarter, Twitter withdrew its quarterly estimate last month and forecast revenue to decline slightly. Pinterest pulled its projection of full-year revenue growth of more than 30 percent because, it said, it started to see a sharp decline from mid-March. It did not offer updated guidance.

David Rodnitzky, chief executive of ad agency 3Q Digital, said that during lean times advertisers opted for ads that translated most directly into new business. Combining a wealth of information about users with the most visited destinations on the internet, Google and Facebook are safe.

That's not to say the two companies aren't heading into a rough patch. In an investor note last month, John Blackledge, an analyst for the investment firm Cowen, trimmed his 2020 revenue forecast for Google and Facebook by nearly 20 percent. He now predicts a decline in annual revenue for both.

The prices of Facebook ads have declined 35 percent to 50 percent on average in recent weeks, said Alex Palmer, an analyst for Gupta Media, a digital marketing agency. Last month, Facebook warned that it was already seeing signs of an early pullback.

"Our business is being adversely affected like so many others," Alex Schultz and Jay Parikh, two Facebook vice presidents, wrote in a company blog post in March. "We've seen a weakening in our ads business in countries taking aggressive actions to reduce the spread of Covid-19."

Mark Mahaney, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, ran 50 Google searches last month and found no paid ads for travel and restaurants. "We can't recall ever NOT seeing a 'Paid Ad' under the search term 'Las Vegas Hotels,'" he wrote. "This is indicative of the broader trends across online advertising."

Average daily spending on digital ads slumped more than 20 percent in the latter half of March for sports and entertainment businesses, according to the advertising analytics platform Pathmatics. Cirque du Soleil, for example, went from sometimes spending more than $140,000 a day on digital ads in late February to spending less than $40,000 a day in late March and then nothing in early April.

Travel companies like Korean Air and Norwegian Cruise Line dropped their digital ad spending to near zero in mid-March, according to Pathmatics. The home-rental company Airbnb suspended all marketing, cutting back from a projected $800 million this year.

Advertisers that are still spending are tiptoeing around coronavirus news. Articles or posts about death, illness and economic turmoil are not exactly advertiser friendly, and many mainstream marketers are avoiding any pandemic-related content.

"Many brands are being cautious," said Nancy Smith, chief executive of Analytic Partners, an advertising consulting firm. "People don't want to see, say, a Pantene ad next to their loved one who is in the hospital."

Before the coronavirus upended its plans, the real estate firm Coldwell Banker was preparing for an advertising blitz online and TV during the N.C.A.A. men's basketball tournament. When the pandemic forced the cancellation of games, Coldwell Banker put a freeze on its plans and halted spending on ads for terms like "vacation homes."

But after shutting down advertising, Coldwell, like other brands, is edging back to Google and Facebook. The company debuted a revamped version of its ad campaign on Monday that will run entirely online on Facebook, Instagram and YouTube.

United Airlines pulled nearly all its advertising for four days before returning with a new message about its waived change fees, according to Pathmatics. Ahead of Easter, the chocolatier Godiva said it had placed ads on Google, Instagram and Facebook to direct customers to its online ordering site. Panera Bread said it had bought ads alerting customers to pickup and delivery options, including a new grocery service.

Many advertisers are avoiding coronavirus content on news sites and Facebook feeds. Google said it had controls to ensure that advertisers were comfortable with the content that their brand appeared alongside. It allows advertisers to opt out of coronavirus content as well as sensitive categories like tragedy or infectious diseases. Facebook has a similar feature.

At the same time, Google and Facebook are struggling to strike the right balance in policing problematic ads.

Google said it had started a "sensitive events" policy last month, which restricts ads on coronavirus content. On March 9, it also placed a temporary ban on ads selling masks, citing a supply shortage for medical professionals.

But mask ads served by Google continue to appear on publisher websites across the internet. There are also ads served by Google for hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes from e-commerce sites offering a wide selection of masks and other items in short supply at significant markups.

Google said that it had taken down 50 million ads as of the end of March, and that up to 80 percent of the 10 million or so bad ads it flagged daily were coronavirus related.

Facebook banned the placement of predatory ads for masks, sanitizer and other personal protective equipment, and it eliminated nearly all mask ads across the social network. But its efforts hampered volunteer groups that have banded together in Facebook groups to donate homemade masks to health care professionals.

"This is a continual battle that goes back and forth with sophisticated entities on the other side who are trying to circumvent Google's detection system," said Scott Spencer, a vice president with Google's ads business.

Daisuke Wakabayashi reported from Oakland, Tiffany Hsu from Hoboken, N.J., and Mike Isaac from San Francisco. Erin Griffith contributed reporting from San Francisco.

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Even Google and Facebook May Face an Ad Slump

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Though ad sales at the two companies are expected to be down, they are likely to fare better than smaller peers and publishers. OAKLAND, Calif. - Google's and Facebook's advertising businesses, which have roughly tripled in combined size over the last five years, may be headed for a rare stumble as the coronavirus pushes the global economy into a tailspin.

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This infographic displays how across various media sectors, less advertisements were shown in March of this year compared to March of 2019.

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This article has informative statistics, but has about 60 different statistics gathered all in one place which makes it overwhelming to go through them all.

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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Marketing & Ad Spend Report (Updated July 2021)

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How significant an effect will the virus have on marketing and sales? We recently surveyed 237 brands to see how they are coping with the crisis. You can check the results of our survey, along with the other statistics below.

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This article only briefly talks about how advertisers are adapting to the changes in the realm of advertising brought on by the pandemic.

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The great messaging race has begun. It started with a frantic rush to pull TV ads that may now make viewers cringe.

In one ad for Apple's AirPods, a woman is walking the streets of New York City. It's cramped and overwhelming. She puts in her AirPods and, poof! Manhattan's streets are empty.

Or there's a KFC ad, set to Chopin, in which the camera zooms in on people eating fried chicken, licking their fingers and their partners' fingers.

Television advertising is attempting to make a switch from consumerism to community. Pulling ads is one thing, but it's hard to shoot a compelling new TV commercial under quarantine.

"We're getting a lot of calls from clients asking us: 'Well, what is anyone else doing?'" said Jim Nail, marketing analyst at Forrester. "Just because there's never been an experience like this that you can reach back to or draw on to give you any guidance."

Nail said some companies are replaying old ads, while others are making new ones with unused material from previous shoots. They're pivoting to ads that capture the moment with a tone that's quiet, contemplative and focused on family.

An AT&T ad that started airing in late March shuffles through photos of empty streets and shuttered storefronts. The voiceover says: "These days, it's anything but business as usual. That's why working together is more important than ever."

Companies that can get creative in this chaos will have an audience: Nielsen data shows that when people are forced to stay home, they watch about 60% more content than usual.

"It's easier to get the eyeballs," said Edward Russell, a professor of advertising at Syracuse University, adding that the brands that spend now may fare better during economic downturn. "At the same time, you have to take into account the state that people are in, and what you can do to lessen that and comfort them in some way."

Comfort in uncertain times can come with a familiar theme: red, white and blue. "After 9/11 we saw very pro-American, let's-all-get-together kinds of advertising," said Russell.

After September 11, General Motors put out a series of ads called "Keep America Rolling." They're slices of classic Americana. One is shot as if you're the driver, rolling through what looks like middle America.

Keep America Rolling from Dave Moore on Vimeo.

TV ads like this tell us a lot about the moment we're living in, emotionally and economically. Think back to the Superbowl in February when the market was good, unemployment was rock bottom and we still watched live sports. Commercials were energetic, funny and even snarky. It's likely we won't see ads like that for a while.
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Advertisers are trying to adapt to COVID-19 - Marketplace

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The great messaging race has begun. It started with a frantic rush to pull TV ads that may now make viewers cringe. In one ad for Apple's AirPods, a woman is walking the streets of New York City. It's cramped and overwhelming. She puts in her AirPods and, poof!

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This article does not discuss the impact of Covid-19 on advertising, but rather how many ads seem to have the same or similar messages. Many ads use phrases like "we're here for you" and "apart together."

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Every COVID-19 commercial is exactly the same
YouTube

I help clients search for an ad agency as a pitch consultant, so I get a good look at agencies when I manage pitches. Invariably, in every pitch, every agency shows up with two videos. The first one is the "idea video." The agency writes a script and puts together visuals made of clips of produced commercials, which were originally made and aired for other products. It is supposed to be inspirational and give the client a facsimile of what their finished commercial would look like. Actually, since the clips are taken from some of the best produced commercials, this video is somewhat of an exaggerated reality.

The second video is a setup for the "idea video." It's a customized "medley video." This video assembles together snippets of scenes from competitive commercials into a pastiche that show how all the advertising in the pitched brand's category is the same. The premise is that in a sea of sameness, the idea proposed by the pitching agency will be different and will stand out.

There's a lot of sameness in advertising. Perhaps because advertising people are very mobile and move from agency to agency. Or because they are influenced by the same award shows. Sameness has been a problem for a while and one of the reasons for the decline on Madison Avenue. At times, and especially in recent years since the last recession, it seems that agencies have all lost the desire the innovate and the courage to stand apart.

YouTuber's Microsoft Sam's edited a super video of U.S. COVID-19 commercials that all use exactly the same tropes in response to the pandemic. The endless recitation of phrases like "times like these," "more than ever," "home," "family," and "here for you." They are laden with clichés such as, "we've always been there for you," "we may be apart, but we can stay connected," "we'll get through this together." And they are all so very excessively sappy. Here is the video:

I don't mean to poke fun at the agencies that produced the commercials. It must be heroic to put those commercials together during the lockdown so fast, with the agencies closed. I also salute corporate America and their agencies for paying tribute to the medical staff or workers who produce needed equipment. I'm also grateful that companies actually bought some airtime. This has been the most terrible time for Madison Avenue in my working lifetime. Agencies are laying off scores of people and clients are cutting back budgets.

But, as we emerge from this nightmare, even if it is to an unappetizing new or intermediary normal, I hope that agencies and clients will remember this video and try to reach beyond the clichés and groupthink. I think that the tendency will be to create more doughy campaigns. Instead, the looming recession dictates creating advertising that actually sells products and services, and the courage to do so with original, bold ideas.

I'm not optimistic. Purpose-driven marketing was already a buzzword in 2019 and brands and agencies are likely to cling to it even more heavily post-crisis. We'll see more "sensitive" advertising, more "we're all in this together."

That would be a mistake.

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Every COVID-19 Commercial Is Exactly The Same

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I help clients search for an ad agency as a pitch consultant, so I get a good look at agencies when I manage pitches. Invariably, in every pitch, every agency shows up with two videos. The first one is the "idea video."

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This article mentions Facebook's guide on how advertisers should change their strategies during Covid-19.

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The COVID-19 shutdowns across the world have had a huge impact on business, aside from society more broadly. Millions of people have had to adjust to working from home, some business are totally unable to operate, while many other organizations which are reliant on advertising are still measuring the impacts, which will evolve over time as more events are cancelled, more celebrations are wiped out, and the situation continues to divert things from the norm.

In this time, it's difficult to know what brands should be saying, and what response you should expect. Should you still be trying to advertise and promote amid the unfolding tragedy? With more people online, is now a good time to be maximizing reach? Do people really want to hear your latest offers - especially when they're locked inside, and in many cases, have no immediate use for your products anyway?

There are many factors at play, many elements for marketers to consider. To provide some extra assistance on this, Facebook has this week published a new guide to some of the key considerations that advertisers need to keep in mind when measuring the performance of their marketing and advertising campaigns amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

The key focus of Facebook's new guide is performance impact - as Facebook notes:
"As businesses seek to navigate this difficult time, adapt media strategies and determine which marketing activities are most worthwhile, gaining an accurate understanding of ad performance is more important than ever. However, a key issue marketers and strategists face when making these adjustments is that many current behaviors depart from the norm."
Indeed, with social media usage skyrocketing amid the COVID-19 lockdowns, performance data has been altered significantly. So what does that mean for your strategy - and does that change your regular considerations for performance?

Facebook's guide outlines a range of key tips and considerations here:

In essence, your ad performance data will likely be significantly impacted by the broader societal shifts at present, and it's important that you adjust your expectations and performance measures accordingly - though that can be hard to do as your past reference points won't work as an accurate guide. Facebook's advice here is that brands need to re-evaluate their entire assessment process to factor in these shifts.

Facebook's guide covers various key points, including data on specific behavioral changes, notes on accurate A/B testing, and an overview of the metrics that Facebook's seeing significant changes in.

If you're looking to optimize your Facebook ad approach amid the COVID-19 pandemic, it's worth taking a look at this brief guide, and considering the various elements which could be impacting your campaign performance.
You can download the full "Adapting Your Measurement Strategy for COVID-19 Impact" guide here.

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Facebook Publishes New Guide on How Advertisers Should Adjust Their Ad Approaches During COVID-19

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The COVID-19 shutdowns across the world have had a huge impact on business, aside from society more broadly. Millions of people have had to adjust to working from home, some business are totally unable to operate, while many other organizations which are reliant on advertising are still measuring the impacts, which will evolve over time as more events are cancelled, more celebrations are wiped out, and the situation continues to divert things from the norm.

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This article only briefly touches on how Covid-19 could be worse for advertising than the 2008 financial crisis was.

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A view of a CDC billboard in Times Square advising people to watch their hands as the coronavirus ... [+]
Noam Galai/Getty Images

According to a new survey of nearly 400 media buyers and brands, 74% think the coronavirus pandemic will have a larger impact on their advertising spend than the 2008 financial crisis.

The research, conducted by the Interactive Advertising Bureau, found that nearly a quarter of all respondents have paused all advertising for the first and second quarter, while another 46% have adjusted or plan to adjust spending during the first half of this year.

"This is what happens in times of crisis," said IAB President David Cohen. "Typically marketers will press pause for a moment, take a breath, assess the situation, replay and reevaluate."

Digital advertising is expected to fair better than other mediums, with protections for March through June down just 33% compared to the 39% decline for traditional media. Traditional out-of-home advertising is expected to take the biggest hit, with an estimated ad spend decline of 51% for March and April and a decline of 41% for May and June. That makes sense considering far fewer people are outside to see billboards and digital displays while they're at home in self-isolation across the country.

Even with the pauses and shifts, some marketers are instead adjusting their messaging to address the current crisis. According to the IAB, 63% plan to change their messaging strategy as a result of the coronavirus while another 17% still have not yet decided. More marketers also plan to switch to purpose-driven marketing, with 42% planning to increase their mission-based marking and 41% increasing cause-related marketing.

Tactical changes are happening, too. The survey found that 38% plan to increase audience-targeting while 35% plan to increase device targeting for over-the-top media and connected TVs.

"With this commute from home and work from home, media consumption in general is going to grow," Cohen said.

The crisis is likely to also hit the upcoming annual Upfronts in late April and May, when media companies court advertisers for shows on the major networks and streaming services. According to the IAB, 73% of buyers said COVID-19 will impact their upfront plans for 2020 and 2021 while 20% expect to decrease their upfront spend versus their original plan. The more digitally focused Digital Content Newfronts, organized by the IAB, were not mentioned in the survey.

It's uncertain how the postponement of the Olympics might also affect media-planning. According to Sue Hogan, the IAB's senior vice president of measurement, the survey was in progress before the Tokyo games were postponed.

Despite the bleak outlook for the next few months, some say they plan to spend more in the second half of the year. However, 67% said they have not yet made ad spend changes for Q3 and Q4 as a result of COVID-19 while 25% said they do plan to make changes.

The IAB also asked marketers which milestones they'll be watching to calibrate their decisions. While 65% said they're watching the ongoing quarantine status, 62% are keeping an eye on shelter-in-place initiatives, and 49% are focused on the number of coronavirus cases. Rounding out the top five were business openings and closings (47%) and the performance of the stock market (44%).

"I would say that I think the optimism right now for the second half of 2020 is heartening," Hogan said. "There's definitely a pendulum swing in the minds of buyers to move from a pretty tight decrease in ad spend or pause entirely to what we hope will be close to planned by end of year."
Full coverage and live updates on the Coronavirus
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Marketers Think COVID-19 Will Be Worse For Advertising Than The 2008 Financial Crisis

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The research, conducted by the Interactive Advertising Bureau, found that nearly a quarter of all respondents have paused all advertising for the first and second quarter, while another 46% have adjusted or plan to adjust spending during the first half of this year.

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This is another article that talks about how advertisers have had to alter their strategies during the current pandemic.

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A few weeks ago, KFC was still touting its " finger lickin' good" chicken. Beer brands were hoping you'd pop open some ice-cold brews with friends. And Charmin was going on and on about its ultra soft product.

These days when you turn on the TV, the last thing you want to see is a toilet paper commercial.

As we make our way through the socially distant life of the COVID-19 pandemic, advertising agencies and their clients are facing an unprecedented level of uncertainty. The Interactive Advertising Bureau reported that 74% of media buyers, planners and brands say the coronavirus will have a bigger impact on advertising than the 2008 financial crisis. Overall spending on digital ads is down 33% while spending on traditional media is down 39% from what companies had expected to lay out.

But as Nielsen data shows, when people are forced to stay inside, they watch about 60% more content than usual - and brands are taking note. They're ditching their usual ad campaigns to make room for coronavirus-centered content. Ikea is urging us to embrace our abodes, Hershey's chocolate is asking us to spread love from a distance, and Hotels.com's Captain Obvious is stating the obvious: Just stay home.

Commercial shoots, like all film productions, have shut down amid the outbreak. But that hasn't stopped advertisers, marketers and creators from imagining new ways to attract the eyes of the millions of people at home watching television and scrolling through as many digital platforms as humanly possible every minute of each day. And according to experts in the field, brands could effectively enter the COVID-19 conversation, depending on their category, geography and philosophy.

"Marketing pretense and fabrication will be sniffed out in seconds," Jason Bagley, an executive creative director at ad agency Wieden+Kennedy Portland, told HuffPost. "But if brands know who they are, then all they have to do is respond authentically and courageously to whatever is currently happening, and it will connect. That's a brand's best insurance."

Take Guinness, which was one of the first brands to address the coronavirus head-on. In the lead-up to St. Patrick's Day, the beer company released a poignant message about the cancellation of celebrations in light of safety guidelines. "Don't worry, we'll march again," the narrator says as footage of a parade appears on screen.

Ace Metrix research found that the spot earned positive responses for likability, relatability and information delivered, with 7 in 10 beer drinkers having increased purchase intent.

A similar response happened with Ford, which was the first carmaker to run ads offering financial relief programs to help customers affected by the outbreak. Now, the entire auto industry is rallying behind this approach. Used car retailer CarMax, for example, has ramped up its presence with pandemic-pegged ads that are frequently appearing during morning shows like "Today."

Motor City can pull at the heartstrings, too. On March 31, the Doner ad agency released " When the Motor Stops," a black-and-white spot featuring the eerie, empty streets and desolate landmarks of Detroit. "Here, we don't stop in the name of fear," the narrator says. "Here, we stop in the name of love."

"The idea for this film came from a young brand strategist ... who said, 'We can't make ventilators or masks - that's not in our skillset - but we can make content,'" Jimmy Kollin, Doner's executive vice president of business development and communications, told HuffPost.

From there, Zeke Anders, director of content production, built a camera rig for his car and shot the deserted streets of Detroit before editing the footage on his at-home system. Copywriter Olivia Hill recorded the voiceover in her closet before an audio engineer mixed it from home. "None of the content was pre-shot," Kollin said. "And everyone worked separately to bring a powerful film together."

Like Doner, some production teams are sending out one photographer to capture footage while other agencies are relying on pre-taped, animated or miscellaneous content to splice together a piece. Standups are being recorded via Zoom or other video platforms, and audio taping is being done remotely. Most of the ads we're seeing were created quickly using resources the respective creators already had on hand.

"We are finding that makers want to make, and the best artists want to help find innovative ways to contribute right now, which can happen outside of big shoots with high-end production values," said Eric Baldwin, another executive creative director at Wieden+Kennedy Portland. "With health and safety guidance in mind, we've found ways to crowd-source filmmakers, livestream-capture performances, remote-operate small shoots, and brief artists to create in their home studios, and we are utilizing our emerging tech capabilities in ways that will change the landscape for our clients."

"The worst thing that agencies and brands can do right now is start from the perceived production limitation and reverse engineer all their ideas from there," Bagley added. "When you look back over the past decade at some of the best ideas we've seen, many of them pioneered totally original forms of production and execution."

Although there are a lot of creative juices flowing, many of the ads today feel like public service announcements, with their static shots or b-roll scenes, voiceovers and animated text. W+K's text-only spot for McDonald's highlights the line, "We can still be here to take your order." And David The Agency's Budweiser commercial ― with images of health care professionals, teachers and other essential workers ― declares that the brand is shifting its sports investments to take care of those on the front lines of the fight against COVID-19.

"People are looking for truth, authenticity and human connection from brands more than ever," Bagley said.

The Ad Council has been looking to its own history when creating coronavirus content, which of course includes PSAs and urgent messaging around the national crisis. So far, the nonprofit has worked on the #AloneTogether campaign, NBC's " The More You Know" spots and Sesame Workshop's family-focused segments, as well as with organizations like Feeding America and AARP. Alongside a host of partners that have donated time, talent and resources, the Ad Council - which started during World War II and continued its work in the aftermath of tragedies like 9/11 and Superstorm Sandy - is aiming to quickly distribute critical, life-saving information.

"Our mission has always been to harness the power of communications for social good, and in times like now - when unease, fear and confusion are reaching across the globe - our work is more important than ever," the council's president and CEO, Lisa Sherman, told HuffPost. "We are proud to do our part to bring the industry together to provide guidance, education, support and comfort."

In times like these, it's more important than ever to come together.

IBM is proud to join the #StayHome initiative to encourage everyone to stay home if you can to help slow the spread of COVID-19. Together we can save lives. #AloneTogether pic.twitter.com/YQu5g2M3Nx
- IBM at 🏠 (@IBM) April 8, 2020

After convening with the White House, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Ad Council's campaign kicked off with messaging about higher-risk populations, social distancing and hygiene. But now it's leaning into mental health issues and the impact of isolation. The content is all unbranded and open source for media companies and platforms to customize for their own channels. MTV, ViacomCBS, ABC/Disney, WarnerMedia, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google and HuffPost's parent company Verizon Media are just some of the platforms that have been part of the push.

On Wednesday, the Ad Council released new research regarding Americans' varied responses to the coronavirus pandemic. The " Coping with COVID-19 " study, conducted pro bono by agency C+R Research, highlights how brands, foundations, media and other mission-driven organizations can help address the needs of citizens during the pandemic. A nationally representative sample of 1,000 English-speaking adults across the United States was surveyed online between April 3 and April 5 on topics including needs, worries, connectedness, emotional well-being and unanswered questions. The findings show that the "health of frontline workers" and "people not taking the pandemic seriously" remain high on the list of concerns.

So far, consumers appear to be highly receptive to brands' COVID-19 marketing approaches. An Ace Metrix report released April 1 found that people are open to and appreciative of efforts to reference the global crisis. On average, coronavirus ads scored 18% higher on relevance than the industry norm, 11% higher on likability and 12% higher on information. But consumers said actions speak louder than words: They don't want to see brands grabbing for cash; they want to know what brands are doing to help or give back.

The study also found that consumers would rather hear "COVID-19" than some vague reference to "the times." And yes, quality still matters - people want information but also want to be entertained, as evidenced by the conversation on social media.

I'l watching TV shows all filmed before #coronavirus & suddenly many of the commercials start talking about "In these difficult times . . . " & I feel like I'm repeatedly awakening from pleasant dreams to a real-life that's a nightmare!😿
- Deanna O 😸 (@DeannaONaperton) April 7, 2020

Tired of all the coronavirus-themed "We care" TV commercials. Bring back the idiots who are stunned that the Chevy Equinox won a J.D. Power Award for Best Seat Belts
- Jason O. Gilbert (@gilbertjasono) April 8, 2020

Commercials changed quick AF for this #Coronavirus era huh? All these commercials sound calming and reassuring now.
- M'BlockU (@rodimusprime) April 6, 2020

Some brands aren't fortunate enough to be able to adapt to the circumstances. For the time being, ads for cinemas, hotels and airlines are irrelevant. It's impossible, and frankly wrong, to promote a popcorn deal at AMC Theatres or a stay at a Marriott property when world leaders are telling citizens to stay at home. So, ads for these businesses have essentially disappeared.

At this point, the majority of advertisers have changed their messaging, pushing mission-based and cause-related marketing over simply selling their products. NBCUniversal advertising and partnerships chairman Linda Yaccarino announced this week that the company's channels will run less commercial time and more uninterrupted content, but will waive fees for creative services and resources to help marketers shift their plans.

"Some brands are feeling disruption more than others, but I think we can all agree everyone is having to prepare for the new business and cultural landscape to come," Baldwin of W+K said.

Doner CEO David DeMuth agreed: "Some are postponing, some are dialing back, others are doubling down. But coming out of this, I think consumers are going to look to brands, especially admired brands, to give them permission to get out and buy."

The advertising and marketing world, like the economy itself, will no doubt suffer greatly in the weeks and months ahead. People everywhere are losing friends and family members as well as jobs, paychecks and health insurance to the coronavirus. Consumers aren't spending as much as they used to, and they want brands to show their compassionate, philanthropic side.

As we've all had to do, brands must adapt to flatten the curve. But here's hoping finger lickin' good times are ahead.
A HuffPost Guide To Coronavirus

BEFORE YOU GO

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The Strategy Behind All Those Coronavirus Ads You're Seeing

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A few weeks ago, KFC was still touting its " finger lickin' good" chicken. Beer brands were hoping you'd pop open some ice-cold brews with friends. And Charmin was going on and on about its ultra soft product. These days when you turn on the TV, the last thing you want to see is a toilet paper commercial.

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This article only talks about how Facebook will be affected by the pandemic, but not advertising as a whole.

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Tech companies like ( Facebook NASDAQ:FB) may not be the first ones you think of being hurt by COVID-19, but it may see a huge impact from the virus. Sure, people will continue to log on to Facebook to connect with friends and family, in some cases as much as 50% more than before. But that's not how Facebook makes money.

At the end of the day, it's an advertising-driven company: 98% of its revenue comes from advertising, and there's no indication that will change. So if advertising dries up in the next few quarters, it makes sense that Facebook would feel the brunt of that cutback. And there's reason to believe the cutback in Facebook spending may be worse than elsewhere.

Advertising spending is plunging

According to a survey by the Interactive Advertising Bureau, 24% of respondents had paused all advertising spending for the first and second quarters of 2020, and another 46% had reduced spending over that time. The company said that traditional media is already down 39%, with digital ad spend down 33%.

Social media rival ( Twitter NYSE:TWTR) recently pulled its first-quarter revenue and earnings guidance and indicated that results will be worse than previously expected. Michael Levine of Pivotal Research estimated that March would be down 35% to 40% for Twitter, and the second quarter may not be much better.

We'll know in the next few weeks how much social media spending has been affected by COVID-19, but we can assume that revenue will be down while engagement (and costs) will be up. But that's not why I'm worried about Facebook in particular.

Facebook relies on small businesses

What makes Facebook unique in the advertising space is that it's built for smaller businesses. It doesn't take a large ad spend to get in the door, like it would with TV or radio; a few dollars for an ad can have an impact for a small business. During the fourth-quarter 2019 conference call with investors, Mark Zuckerberg said that more than 140 million small businesses use Facebook's services, and while the company didn't disclose how many are advertising with Facebook, it's safe to say it's well into the millions.

The hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be small businesses, which don't have the finances to survive months of being shut down. Restaurants, movie theaters, and other small venues that used Facebook to reach customers will no doubt be cutting back their spending. Small retail shops or product makers will also be saving every dollar they can. The impact will be widespread, with Karen Mills, the former head of the Small Business Administration, saying "maybe 20%, even 30% of small businesses could fail even in a good scenario."

Not only will closed small businesses no longer be advertising on Facebook, but they also won't be driving up the price of ad auctions. Less demand means lower prices, and the impact could last for years.

Don't expect a quick bounce back

If you think about Facebook as an advertising business with small businesses at its core, it's easy to see why I think investors should be pessimistic. Advertising is fundamentally a supply-and-demand business, and all evidence says that demand is going to be down big in the short term. And I think Facebook will be particularly affected by the (likely) long-term reduction in the number of small businesses advertising on its platform.

COVID-19 is affecting business in strange ways, and don't think that Facebook and other technology stocks won't feel some of the pain that's going around the world's small businesses right now.

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Facebook May Be Hit Harder Than You Think by COVID-19 | The Motley Fool

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Tech companies like ( Facebook NASDAQ:FB) may not be the first ones you think of being hurt by COVID-19, but it may see a huge impact from the virus. Sure, people will continue to log on to Facebook to connect with friends and family, in some cases as much as 50% more than before.

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This article focuses on the impact of Covid-19 on the print news industry.

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For the Portland Mercury, the early warning of impending disaster came from its sister paper in the Pacific Northwest.

The Stranger, which was distributed for free every other week in Seattle, was at ground zero of the first full-blown U.S. coronavirus outbreak. Almost overnight, the community paper's advertising business collapsed as the pandemic emptied movie theaters, music clubs, concert halls and arts venues.

"That's when we knew we were in trouble and that we had to make moves fast. We knew it was coming to Portland," Portland Mercury editor in chief Wm. Steven Humphrey told USA TODAY. "We took drastic measures right away to stay in business and hopefully ride it out."

Nearly every advertiser that might place an ad and every spot readers might pick up a copy - bars, restaurants or theaters - had gone dark. The small but feisty paper, which had been distributed for two decades as reliably as the Oregon rain, stopped publishing its print edition. The final gut punch for Humphrey was letting go 10 of 18 staffers as the ban on public gatherings choked advertising sales.

During the nation's struggle with the coronavirus, the outlook for news organizations - whether legacy newspapers with robust online operations or digital-only outlets - is precarious.

Last week, in a bid to avoid layoffs, BuzzFeed said it would cut employees' pay by as much as 25%, and CEO Jonah Peretti would forgo pay during the coronavirus crisis. "We don't know how long this will last, but we want to move quickly to make sure our business remains sustainable," Peretti wrote in a memo to staff.

Staffers appeared supportive under the circumstances. "Personally, I'd rather lose money than lose colleagues," Jane Lytvynenko, senior reporter at BuzzFeed News, tweeted.

Monday, Gannett, which owns USA TODAY and more than 250 local papers, told employees it would institute a series of immediate cost reductions, including a furlough program in its news division in April, May and June, as a result of the economic pressures brought on by the pandemic. Other departments are taking separate cost-saving measures. CEO Paul Bascobert told employees, "I will not be taking any pay until these furloughs and pay reductions have been reversed."

McClatchy, one of the largest U.S. news publishers, is in bankruptcy. Chains such as Gannett, Lee Enterprises and Tribune, are also deeply in debt.

The pain is felt across the industry. The Tampa Bay Times, Florida's biggest newspaper, will deliver only twice a week on Wednesdays and Sundays, starting next week - a move that should help it offset a 50% drop in advertising, according to publisher Paul Tash.

"In the last two weeks, retailers have canceled more than $1 million in advertising they had already scheduled," Tash said in a statement. "Until ad revenues recover, we must sharply reduce the costs of producing and delivering an edition in print."

Tash said in an interview Monday that he belongs to a generation who loves to feel the printed page with the first cup of coffee. But as thousands turn to the web for updates on the coronavirus, the crisis offers an opportunity to help readers get comfortable with online version of the newspaper as well.

"This isn't the new and permanent normal," Tash said. "But we hope people will find it an acceptable substitute."

Across the country, The Los Angeles Times is cutting back on print sections and won't be hiring for open positions "other than those essential to keep the presses rolling and ensure distribution of the paper," said spokeswoman Hillary Manning.

"As members of the news media, which is designated as an essential business and continues to operate under challenging circumstances, we are focused on supporting our existing workforce to ensure their health, safety and wellbeing during the crisis," she said in a statement.

When the coronavirus outbreak struck, the news industry was still suffering the lingering effects from the Great Recession, the unrelenting march of readers from print to online and the precipitous decline of print advertising dollars flowing to newspapers.

Now, newsrooms and news markets across the country are bracing for a sudden and potentially devastating broadside that could shutter or significantly hobble publications just as communities stricken by the coronavirus need them most.
COVID-19 social distancing: Coronavirus strike: More than 150K Instacart workers threaten to walk out over hazard concerns Together apart, screen time connects isolated kids with family, friends
For newspapers in major metro markets to small-town news outlets, the extent of the pandemic's economic toll is not yet known, but it is already drawing comparisons to the 2008 financial crisis - only this time it could be worse, with even more dire consequences for the industry, analysts say.

The response from news organizations covering one of the world's biggest news events while watching the lifeblood of their businesses drain with each store closure and each shelter-in-place order has been has been swift and painful.

Print editions have been canceled. Journalists have been laid off. And some papers have thrown in the towel, the preexisting challenges to their businesses turning the coronavirus into a crisis they simply don't think they can survive.

Emergency measures are desperately needed to stop the bleeding, such as tapping federal bailout money and ramping up appeals to potential subscribers, as Americans are glued to the news during the pandemic, according to Ken Doctor, a news industry analyst with Newsonomics.
Small business pain: Dangerous aisles? Are grocery stores and pharmacies vectors for the coronavirus? It's not just restaurants and movie theaters cutting jobs. Small business layoffs spread.
Craig Aaron, president and co-CEO of Free Press, a group advocating for media transformation, last week proposed doubling federal funds for public media and establishing a "First Amendment Fund" in an article in the Columbia Journalism Review titled "Journalism Needs a Stimulus. Here's What it Should Look Like."

Steven Waldman, co-founder of Report for America, and Charles Sennott, CEO of the GroundTruth Project, wrote a piece in The Atlantic, " The Coronavirus Is Killing Local News," in which they called for news organizations to be considered in future stimulus packages, such as placing public health ads in local media outlets.

Analysts anticipate that newspapers may shrink the size of daily editions, reduce the number of print editions or stop printing altogether. Other ideas being floated include asking foundations to subsidize coverage of the coronavirus crisis or offering employees extended unpaid time off.

Some help is coming from a major internet player. Facebook announced Monday it would give $25 million in grants to local news outlets and spend $75 million on a marketing initiative for the news industry.

Newspaper and digital outlet advertising dollars for years have migrated to Facebook and Google.

American newspapers have lost more than 70% of their advertising dollars since 2006, according to Doctor. The hit has come largely in print. Although online advertising and digital subscriptions have grown across much of the industry, those gains have not offset the print advertising losses.

In March, advertising revenues will be off 10% to 25%, Doctor says. And he's forecasting a 30% to 50% drop in the second quarter. And things will only get worse if stores and other businesses remain closed, layoffs continue to mount and purse strings cinch tighter.

"Clearly this is going to be an extinction event for some news publishers," Doctor said.

The fallout from the crisis will hit publishers unevenly, but the most vulnerable will be those that have not weaned themselves off a near total dependence on advertising, Doctor says.

"It is an acceleration of trends that we have already seen,'' he says. "Those companies that are most reliant on advertising as a way to operate their businesses have been in free fall for 12 years now."

Few local and regional newspapers have attracted enough digital subscriptions to make up for the print subscriptions they've shed. Even when online readership shoots up during major news events, digital advertising has not filled the coffers the way print ads did.

With coronavirus dominating every home page and headline, some advertisers are recoiling. They don't want their brands appearing alongside sickness and death, even if that's what people are obsessively reading. And with many businesses shutting down as Americans hunker down in their homes, demand for advertising has fallen as have advertising rates.

Advertising budgets are shrinking "both because advertisers are trying to stay away from the content and because of what's likely to be relative weakness in the overall advertising industry," said Brian Wieser, president of business intelligence for GroupM, the media buying arm of advertising giant WPP Plc.

Amid the gloom, Ed Wasserman, dean of the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism, says the pandemic marks the biggest opportunity since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks "to restore to the news media this central importance to civic life that it used to have."

He recalls how, during World War II, the New York Times refused to cut back on its news coverage only to reap the benefits in reader loyalty and public goodwill after the war ended.

During the coronavirus, "people are discarding all of this dark undercurrent of suspiciousness about news media, and the belief that the media were in the business of fabricating things. And they are now really placing their trust in the media in an extremely important way and they are relying on news media to come through with the information that is both accurate and pertinent to how they should be living their lives," Wasserman told USA TODAY. "That to me is an extraordinarily important moment for the media which had been rocked back on their heels by economic reversals and by political antagonism."

Demand for news is surging. Web traffic was up about 23% at top news sites the week of March 9 from the previous week and up 31% from the week of January 6, according to Comscore, an advertising and audience measurement firm. Digital subscriptions are soaring and fewer subscribers are canceling as reader loyalty increases during the crisis, industry analysts say.

At the Portland Mercury, online traffic rose nearly 45% in March. Readers devoured breaking news, in-depth coverage of bleak conditions for the homeless and helpful tips such as how to make face masks for health care workers on the front lines.

Donations rolled in, too, along with notes of appreciation. Portland Mercury publisher Rob Thompson says nearly 1,900 readers so far have chipped in anywhere from $5 to several hundred dollars apiece.

The Portland Mercury has also had some success selling web banners, social posts and dedicated emails for restaurants offering take-out and delivery as well as cannabis dispensaries offering delivery and curbside pick-up. And the community paper is taking some of its live events online, charging admission to a streaming cannabis film festival.

None of these small wins can make up for the massive plunge in revenue. The coronavirus has wiped out nearly all - some 90% - of revenue from advertising, ticketing fees and events, Thompson says.

Major national newspapers with bigger audiences and more diverse revenue streams may be better positioned to ride out the turbulence, but they are not immune, analysts say. The New York Times said on March 2 it expected total advertising revenues to decline by a rate in the mid-teens in the current quarter, with digital ad revenues expected to decline 10%.

Nancy Lane, CEO of the Local Media Association, which represents a broad range of newspapers, digital publishers and broadcasters, says "it's devastating given the state of industry to have this hit right now."

Some newspapers had zero ads last week, she said. The publisher of an African-American newspaper told her it collected $330 dollars in revenue. She's banking on philanthropic funding to help news organizations hang on. Newspapers will also have a shot at a cash infusion from the $2 trillion federal stimulus package signed into law last week but any aid they can secure may come too late for some.

One bright spot: Seattle, where the news industry was walloped by the coronavirus earlier than anywhere else. Alan Fisco, president of The Seattle Times Co.,said his company has seen a drop in both print and digital ad revenues, but so far it has avoided layoffs and print frequency reductions.

"We are now starting to model a late summer return of revenue," Fisco said. "Again, the question is not only when it happens, but how much comes back."

The silver lining: The newspaper's focus on paid subscriptions, which now account for nearly two-thirds of annual revenues. Digital subscriptions have increased during the coronavirus crisis and traffic to the website is up 2 to 3 times, with spikes that have hit 10 times pre-crisis levels.

Local Media's Lane agrees there's reason for optimism. "If we can keep doors open through summer, I think we can come out of this," she says, but warns, "some will make it; ones that were teetering to begin with are not going to get through this."

Joshua Benton, director of the Nieman Journalism Lab, predicts unemployment in the U.S. could reach as high as 30% before the crisis subsides and newspapers could be looking at three to six months of hardship.

"This will be the event where they ask: Is this sustainable?" Benton said.

Voice Media Group, which owns six alternative weeklies in major metro areas from Denver to Miami, also implemented a 25% across the board pay cut.

The Riverfront Times in St. Louis, Missouri says it laid off nearly its entire staff "with the hope that if we act now, we can rebuild and bring them back later," the weekly paper reported on March 18. "One day, you're a profitable newspaper, doing better every year; the next, almost all of your ad revenue is wiped out with no clear sign of when it will return."

In New Orleans, with coronavirus fears just beginning to take hold during Mardi Gras celebrations in late February, Judi Terzotis was quick to start planning for what southern Louisiana has become quite used to: disaster.
Contributing: Josh Salman
Terzotis, publisher at the Times Picayune/New Orleans Advocate, cut back on newsprint, furloughed 40 of 400 employees across the chain's three daily and 16 weekly newspapers, and asked remaining employees to take a temporary 20% pay cut.

She believes these steps will get her company through the crisis, and she is cautiously optimistic that business will rebound by May or June.

Doctor isn't as confident.

"If we return to normal life in a couple of months and sustain six weeks of damage that's one thing," he said. "But if it lasts three to six months, then all bets are off."

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Coronavirus' next casualty: The nation's biggest story could devastate news industry

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For the Portland Mercury, the early warning of impending disaster came from its sister paper in the Pacific Northwest. The Stranger, which was distributed for free every other week in Seattle, was at ground zero of the first full-blown U.S. coronavirus outbreak.

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This article provides tips for how brands should interact differently with consumers during the current crisis.

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Movie cinema billboard with three basic rules to avoid the coronavirus or Covid-19 epidemic of wash ... [+]
Getty

There is little doubt that there are some difficult times ahead for the advertising industry and for some brands, at least in the short-term. Work stoppages along with quarantines are changing the landscape for marketers. In this new environment, connecting with consumers digitally can be challenging. Yet, it is especially important for both brands experiencing hard times as well as those experiencing booms to communicate effectively.

According to a Berlin Cameron/Perksy study, a high proportion of millennials believe that marketers can play an important role during the COVID-19 crisis and want to see communications that address the situation in their tone and/or focus on brand initiatives. With this in mind, marketers need to be innovative and creative in their communications with consumers.

I asked Jaysen Gillespie, Vice President and Head of Analytics of Criteo for his perspective on how firms should interact with customers during the COVID-19 crisis. Four insights arose from the conversation:
1) Social media channels currently offer special opportunity for innovative engagement

Facebook invitation to virtual wine tasking
Angelina Mondavi

With so many people spending more time at home, internet usage is even higher than normal. In this vein, we are seeing some brands engage in innovative engagement. For example the Mondavi Sisters of CK Mondavi wines and are running virtual educational tastings for their Aloft and Dark Matter wine brands. Co-proprietor and winemaker Angelina Mondavi notes that they were considering this strategy prior to COVID-19, but realized they needed to implement the tastings earlier than usual. She states, "Our goal from the beginning was to connect with people that may not have the opportunity to visit us in the Napa Valley and continue to grow a stronger and closer relationship with our Aloft and Dark Matter members."

The ability to interact with the proprietor in addition to learning about the product and/or simply having fun has been a big hit with the company's members.

Another example in this vein is the virtual concerts by musical acts who cannot currently perform live shows put on by everyone from the Dropkick Murphy's to the New York Philharmonic Orchestra, Robin Wilson of the Gin Blossoms and Scott Blasey of the Clarks. While these shows have generally been free and focused on fundraising, they surely build up goodwill. In addition, they keep the act top of mind, and likely have the potential to spur online purchases of albums and merchandise, especially if scheduled regularly. These innovative types of strategies can be especially valuable in some industries that are heavily impacted by the virus.
2) Influencer marketing strategies may need to be changed to target "homefluencers"
As with everyone else, the lives of social media influencers have been impacted by COVID-19. Gillespie of Criteo stresses that there is a major opportunity for brands who have capitalized on influencers from Instagram, Youtube or other social media channels to capture what he calls the new "homefluencers." He notes that influencers "...are suddenly facing a moment where the cocktail dress they've been trying to sell is no longer for a night out, but for a mirror selfie or a virtual happy hour," and that, "Influencers who have depended on 'location candy' suddenly find their backdrops unavailable." To stay relevant, these individuals become homefluencers and find ways to connect with their followings.

Gillespie observes that these influencers tend to instinctively understand where they fit into a consumer's life during a crisis and many are good at adapting to new situations. As a result, homefluencers can be highly effective in educating audiences on social impact initiatives or simply entertaining customers while promoting a brand that they use.
3) Strong consumer brands should deliver simple messages that address COVID-19 and social responsibility
Gillespie suggests that bigger brands that have influence within consumer communities keep their messages simple, obvious, and informative. He cites Coca Cola's recent out of home ad in Times Square that delivered an effective social distancing message as an example:

"Recently, Coca-Cola featured their impossible to miss logo with the letters spread out in Times Square. The vital marketing campaign was a testament to the success that can be derived from keeping the messaging light - yet powerful - all while spreading a message about the importance of social distancing."

Given that young consumers are especially prone to reward a brand that they believe shares their values, this is a good time for large brands to address COVID-19 and deliver socially responsible messages.
4) Tone and human-centric messages are especially important for companies experience an uptick or shift in distribution channels during the crisis
The public is well aware that this crisis has hit many individuals very hard. As a result, messages that focus on the human element are likely to enhance effectiveness. Gillespie cites Hyundai's recent television ad campaign in which the company puts out the offer that for those affected by COVID-19 the company will cover six months of payments as a good example. He says, "While it's designed to boost sales at a slow time, it's not 'sales-y' and comes across as caring about the consumer. This approach will likely build strong loyalty for those who happen to need to take advantage of it."

For companies making products for which their is an increase in consumption, such as alcohol or grocery retail, sensitivity is especially important. Gillespie cites Diageo's (owner of the Guinness and Johnnie Walker brands) promise of over $1 million to support bartenders and other affected groups around the world of a good example of incorporating the human element into marketing messages. While some companies may even achieve sales gains, remaining sensitive to the human side of things, and especially job displacements and hardship is important to consumers and resonates.

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How Brands Can Successfully Engage With Consumers Quarantined Due To COVID-19

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There is little doubt that there are some difficult times ahead for the advertising industry and for some brands, at least in the short-term. Work stoppages along with quarantines are changing the landscape for marketers. In this new environment, connecting with consumers digitally can be challenging.

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This article talks about how the relationship between consumers and brands will change in the future as a result of Covid-19.

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The COVID-19 pandemic continues to force retail stores to close, signaling an unprecedented disruption of commerce. Incumbents rarely do well in this type of disruption. None of the ice-harvesting barons invested in ice factories, and all the ice factories failed to foresee the advent of at-home ice makers.

Retailers and brands face a daunting multitude of short-term challenges around health and safety, supply chain, labor force, cash flow, consumer demand and marketing. Yet successfully navigating these issues alone will not assure a bright future, or any future at all. That's because once we get through this pandemic - and we will get through it - we will emerge in a very different world from the one we left prior to the outbreak.

In order to ensure a future where businesses not only survive, but thrive, it is critical to anticipate what a post-pandemic world will look like, and then begin to transform to better match this new reality.

What will that new landscape mean for brands and retailers in North America? The post-pandemic commerce world will be shaped by three forces:

Consumers will have adopted short-term behaviors during the pandemic that in many cases will become permanent.

Consumers will emerge from the pandemic in a new economic reality, changing commerce behaviors in profound ways.

A significant consolidation of retailers will fundamentally alter the competitive and partner landscape.

1. Consumer Behaviors During the Pandemic May Become Permanent Transition to Digital
Even before the pandemic, the most profound behavioral change in commerce was the shift to digital shopping. Many product categories had already been significantly disrupted by digital over the past two decades (books, entertainment and consumer electronics), while others, like apparel, were earlier in their transition to digital. Most importantly, one of the largest consumer categories, grocery, was still nascent in terms of its transition to digital. According to Nielsen, just 4% of grocery sales in the United States came online in 2019.

The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly accelerating the transition to digital commerce. As consumers are being asked to practice social distancing, e-commerce orders for groceries and other essentials have become a survival tool for the American family. Many families are trying digital grocery services for the first time. The mobile application tracking company Apptopia reported that the average daily downloads for popular digital grocery apps Instacart, Walmart Grocery and Shipt have surged since February.

According to data from Rakuten Intelligence, online order volume from full-assortment grocery merchants rose 210.1% from March 12 through March 15, compared with the same period a year earlier.

Households that rely upon curbside pickup or home delivery during the pandemic are likely to continue to use those services once it's over.

This very much mirrors the aftermath of the 2003 SARS epidemic in China. More than 8,000 people were infected by SARS, and nearly 800 died. Schools, factories and shops were closed, and China's bustling cities quickly turned into ghost towns. But the epidemic was also a catapult for digital shopping in the market. Prior to SARS, Alibaba was primarily a B2B e-commerce site doing approximately $10 million a year in sales, while Jing Dong Trading was a small chain of electronics stores primarily selling through physical markets. Within a few short years, Alibaba and JD.com grew to become two of the largest e-commerce firms in the world.

Potentially mitigating this trend is the fact that that the digital grocery experience is currently derogated due to high demand. Many are finding it hard to secure a delivery slot, product inventory remains in flux, and lead times are much longer than usual. It's also possible that the competition for orders will act as a form of scarcity and make the service even more desirable to consumers. It remains to be seen exactly how these factors will impact the post-pandemic grocery consumer, but what's certain is that COVID-19 has dramatically accelerated the digital disruption of grocery.

This has significant implications for retailers. Due to order picking and delivery costs, digital grocery orders are less profitable than traditional in-store shopping trips. Retailers will need to find ways to improve the unit economics of digital grocery. Further, the digital experience does not lend itself to impulse buys, immediate consumption purchases or new product trials. Retailers will need to invent online means to recreate these traditional behaviors.
Germaphobia
The pandemic will likely not end with the eradication of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, but rather due to an abatement of cases thanks to herd immunity, and eventually, a vaccine. COVID-19 or variants could re-emerge seasonally, and an entirely new pandemic remains a possibility. Faced with this new reality, consumers are likely to be more germ cautious than ever before. No-touch deliveries may become the new normal. Bulk self-service food items, communal buffets and salad bars are likely to be less popular. Consumers may be less receptive to in-store food sampling and more hesitant to use public touch screens or keypads. Community play areas may be less appealing. Retailers will need to develop no-touch customer experiences with an emphasis on hygiene.
In-Homing
Consumers that learned to cook while quarantined at home may continue to do so. Consumers that broke their daily Starbucks habit may not return to it. Those that bought a Peloton bike are unlikely to resume their gym membership. Families that added a streaming media subscription may choose to keep it. A large portion of the workforce may permanently shift from working in an office, to working from home. To the extent these behaviors become permanent, they will fundamentally shift demand for various goods and services.
Brand Loyalty

Target Corporation

As grocery shelves for popular items sit empty, consumers brand preference erodes. You may prefer Charmin toilet paper, but when confronted with the reality of not having toilet paper, any brand will do. COVID-19 is forcing consumers beyond their preferred brands like never before. Those consumers could emerge from the pandemic with entirely new brand preferences or lower overall brand loyalty. This was already trending before the pandemic, with exclusive store brands gaining marketshare, but this trend will now be amplified.
Hoarding Hangover
Several product categories were aggressively shopped as consumers rushed to stock their homes in preparation for shelter in place orders. Some of these products, like toilet paper and cold medicine, are unlikely to be consumed as quickly. The result will be a delayed decline in sales in those categories as consumers work through their home inventory.
2. New Economic Reality
It is very possible that the U.S. will emerge from the pandemic in a recession. Morgan Stanley and the Goldman Sachs Group have both warned of a record plunge in output during the second quarter that could lead to a deeper global recession.

A Morgan Stanley report also projects American gross domestic product to fall at an annual rate of 30.1% in April-June, and that unemployment could average 12.8% over the period. Goldman Sachs is projecting a 24% annualized drop in output in the next quarter.

The Labor Department reported that unemployment claims in the U.S. rose to a record to 3.28 million for the week ending March 20, shattering previous record highs from the Great Recession peak.

Consumer spending is dramatically curtailed during a recession. Not only do consumers become more financially conservative, but consumer credit may become less available and a large cohort may go into default on their debt, dramatically limiting purchasing power.

Even when the economy rebounds, consumers can experience "economic scarring" that lasts far longer than the actual recession. There is substantial evidence that economic outcomes are passed across generations. Economic hardships for parents can mean more economic hurdles for their children. Therefore, a recession should not be considered a one-time event that stresses consumers for a few years. An economic downturn will have consequences for consumer spending for years to come.

In this climate, discount retailers and value-oriented brands stand to win. This will also boost the trend toward value-oriented store brands. Spending will aggregate on need based categories, with discretionary categories declining.
3. New Competitive Landscape and Partner Ecosystem
The economic impacts of the pandemic will not affect all brands and retailers equally. Many retailers enter the pandemic with a weak balance sheet loaded with debt. The economic climate for retailers is so uncertain, that many are retracting their earnings governance, and declining to provide investors estimates for their performance this year. Already by the second week of March, U.S. retail traffic was down more than 30% year-over-year, according to data from Cowen, and if much of America remains shut down, that traffic will continue to decline.

What emerges is a great retail bifurcation, where a few retailers, those that sell high-demand pandemic necessities like Amazon, Walmart and Costco, are relatively not impacted by the economic effects of the pandemic. Online sales at general merchandise retailers climbed 50% on March 13, according to Rakuten Intelligence, which tracks electronic receipts. These retailers are aggressively hiring to meet demand, they are increasing employee pay and boosting their supply chains. These retailers could well emerge with record quarterly growth.

Conversely, retailers of non-essential products that are forced to shut down will bear the brunt of the economic impact. Online sales for apparel and footwear retailers fell 37% on March 11 alone, according to Rakuten. Foot traffic to U.S. stores fell 58.4% in the third week of March, according to ShopperTrak. If the retail shutdown is prolonged, those with the bulk of their inventory trapped in stores and without a strong balance sheet may find they are economically unable to continue operations. Independent businesses may be the least prepared for a significant lapse in cash flow. JPMorgan Chase estimates that the median independent retailer has a cash buffer of 19 days.

The net result for retail may be that a few retailers emerge stronger than ever, and that many specialty stores and independents no longer exist. This is precisely the scenario that Jim Cramer vocalized on a recent episode of Mad Money on CNBC: "Can you imagine what it means for this country to just have three retailers?"

Even well-positioned retailers may find they have to permanently close under-performing stores and take drastic cost cutting efforts to bolster their balance sheets. It's easy to imagine the U.S. having 20% less retail space by the end of the pandemic.

This dramatic consolidation would result in the surviving retailers having increased leverage over their manufacturer partners. This is a trend that was well underway before COVID-19, as a recent Deloitte study found that between 2017 and 2019 retail had experienced significant consolidation, while consumer package goods had experienced additional fragmentation during the same period. The COVID-19 pandemic will only accelerate this trend.

The combination of these three forces, will significantly disrupt commerce as we know it, but this is still no a retail apocalypse. The COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating the inevitable digital disruption of commerce. Commerce will emerge from the pandemic a vibrant and critical part of consumer life. Some retailers and brands will be more ingrained in the consumers life than ever before. Retail will look and feel very different, but that is not a bad thing.
Full coverage and live updates on the Coronavirus
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The Impact Of COVID-19 On U.S. Brands And Retailers

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The COVID-19 pandemic continues to force retail stores to close, signaling an unprecedented disruption of commerce. Incumbents rarely do well in this type of disruption. None of the ice-harvesting barons invested in ice factories, and all the ice factories failed to foresee the advent of at-home ice makers.