# data[].attributes.body
Show only the first 45 minutes or so

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
NOVA WORLD IN BALANCE THE PEOPLE PARADOX Discovery History Life (documentary)

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
In the equations describing growth of populations of organisms, r represents the slope of the line representing exponential growth. The letter K represents the carrying capacity of a habitat for members of a given sort of organism.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
This is post 1 of 6 in a series about the Demographic Transition Model - a fundamental concept in population education, which is covered in Social Studies courses, most notably AP Human Geography.
Beginning in the late 1700s, something remarkable happened: death rates declined. With new technologies in agriculture and production, and advancements in health and sanitation, a greater number of people lived through their adolescent years, increasing the average life expectancy and creating a new trajectory for population growth. This sudden change created a shift in understanding the correlation between birth and death rates, which up to that point had both been relatively equal, regardless of location. Over the past 300 years, population demographics have continued to evolve as a result of the relationship between the birth and death rates within a country. The observation and documentation of this global phenomenon has produced a model, the Demographic Transition Model, which helps explain and make sense of changes in population demographics. Using the Demographic Transition Model, demographers can better understand a country's current population growth based on its placement within one of five stages and then pass on that data to be used for addressing economic and social policies within a country and across nations.

What is the Demographic Transition Model?

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is based on historical population trends of two demographic characteristics - birth rate and death rate - to suggest that a country's total population growth rate cycles through stages as that country develops economically. Each stage is characterized by a specific relationship between birth rate (number of annual births per one thousand people) and death rate (number of annual deaths per one thousand people). As these rates change in relation to each other, their produced impact greatly affects a country's total population. Within the model, a country will progress over time from one stage to the next as certain social and economic forces act upon the birth and death rates. Every country can be placed within the DTM, but not every stage of the model has a country that meets its specific definition. For example, there are currently no countries in Stage 1, nor are there any countries in Stage 5, but the potential is there for movement in the future.

What are the stages of the Demographic Transition Model?

In Stage 1, which applied to most of the world before the Industrial Revolution, both birth rates and death rates are high. As a result, population size remains fairly constant but can have major swings with events such as wars or pandemics.
In Stage 2, the introduction of modern medicine lowers death rates, especially among children, while birth rates remain high; the result is rapid population growth. Many of the least developed countries today are in Stage 2.
In Stage 3, birth rates gradually decrease, usually as a result of improved economic conditions, an increase in women's status, and access to contraception. Population growth continues, but at a lower rate. Most developing countries are in Stage 3.
In Stage 4, birth and death rates are both low, stabilizing the population. These countries tend to have stronger economies, higher levels of education, better healthcare, a higher proportion of working women, and a fertility rate hovering around two children per woman. Most developed countries are in Stage 4.
A possible Stage 5 would include countries in which fertility rates have fallen significantly below replacement level (2 children) and the elderly population is greater than the youthful population.

Limitations of the Demographic Transition Model

Like any model, there will be outliers and exceptions to the rule and the Demographic Transition Model is no different. Additionally, there are limitations of the demographic transition model - things the DTM cannot reveal: the impact of other demographic variables such as migration, are not considered, nor does the model predict how long a country will be in each stage. But even so, the relationship between birth rate and death rate is an important concept when discussing population and any patterns, such as those provided by the DTM, that aid in understanding are helpful.

Demographic Transition Model Case Studies

Over a series of five posts we will explain each stage of the Demographic Transition Model in depth and provide a case study for stages when there is a country that currently fits its parameters.
Demographic Transition Model blog series: Overview, Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3, Stage 4, Stage 5

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
What is the Demographic Transition Model?

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
This overview of the DTM is the first in a 6-part series exploring each stage and providing examples

# data[].attributes.body
Data for graphing or projects

# data[].attributes.body
5-minute TED Talk about how population pyramids help predict the future

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Population pyramids: Powerful predictors of the future - Kim Preshoff

# data[].attributes.body
An hour long video. Population facts c/o Hans Rosling.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
DON'T PANIC — Hans Rosling showing the facts about population

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Cemetery Data Compiling & Computing Table Template

# data[].attributes.body
Full lesson plan included

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Lesson 2: A Demographically Divided World - World Population

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Lesson 2: A Demographically Divided World We live in a demographically divided world with large disparities in population growth rates and the quality of life indicators that impact those growth rates (health, education, wealth). In this lesson, students will use the Fertility and Life Expectancy overlays on the Population Map to see how these trends [...]

# data[].attributes.body
An interactive reading and discussion of these advances from the invention of the microscope and flush toilet to the use of chemical fertilizers, antibiotics, and vaccines. Full lesson plan included.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
As the video World Population illustrates, global population has grown exponentially since the Industrial Revolution. Advances in medicine, nutrition, and sanitation have led to a global decline in the death rate and have been the primary drivers behind population growth in the 20th and 21st centuries. In this lesson, the teacher will use the Timeline to guide students through an interactive reading and discussion of these advances from the invention of the microscope and flush toilet to the use of chemical fertilizers, antibiotics, and vaccines. Then students will create posters capturing a "demographic moment in time" for different points in history, by building population pyramids and researching influential events.

Subjects: World History (General and AP), World Geography, AP Human Geography, AP Environmental Science

Key Concepts: Human population dynamics, human population history, age-structure diagrams, industrialization and innovation, historical causation

Lesson Materials

Lesson 1: Download All

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Lesson 1: The Peopling of Our Planet - World Population

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Lesson 1: The Peopling of Our Planet As the video World Population illustrates, global population has grown exponentially since the Industrial Revolution. Advances in medicine, nutrition, and sanitation have led to a global decline in the death rate and have been the primary drivers behind population growth in the 20th and 21st centuries.

# data[].attributes.body
Estimating population size using paper

# data[].attributes.body
Three different models to determine population size

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Dynamic Change

Like the individual organism, the population is a real and functional unit in biology. Defined as groups of organisms that are genetically and spatially distinct from other such groups, the population is the fundamental unit of evolution. Populations are dynamic, they grow, decline, colonize new populations, and go extinct. Understanding how and why populations change over time is critical to such wide-ranging practical issues as pest control, endangered species protection, and even human population growth. In this section there are models exploring population growth and how to estimate population sizes.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Like the individual organism, the population is a real and functional unit in biology. Defined as groups of organisms that are genetically and spatially distinct from other such groups, the population is the fundamental unit of evolution. Populations are dynamic, they grow, decline, colonize new populations, and go extinct.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Species that can live in many different types of environments, and have a varied diet are considered generalists. Raccoons are the classic example of a generalist species. Their range extends throughout North and Central America. They are omnivores that can thrive on many different foods, including human garbage. It is this ability to be successful in a variety of different environments that has enabled the raccoon to maintain large population sizes.

Specialist species are animals that require very unique resources. Often, these species have a very limited diet, or need a specific habitat condition to survive. Tiger salamanders are an example of specialists. They cannot reproduce unless they live in wetland habitats that do not dry out throughout the spring and summer. They also require an abundance of insects and worms for their diet.

Specialist species are more likely to suffer from habitat loss and disruption than generalist species. As a result, many specialist species are becoming threatened, endangered, and extinct due to human activities. In contrast, generalist species are becoming more common. Raccoons are often considered a nuisance animal due to their ability to find shelter and food close to and sometimes in human homes and buildings.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Wildlife Encounters: Adaptations - Specialist & Generalist

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Species that can live in many different types of environments, and have a varied diet are considered generalists. Raccoons are the classic example of a generalist species. Their range extends throughout North and Central America. They are omnivores that can thrive on many different foods, including human garbage.

# data[].attributes.body
Videos, card sort activity, and lots of graphs

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Gapminder uses cookies to improve its statistics and user experience. By continuing to use the site you agree to our cookie policy. X
Close

# data[].attributes.body
A good project for students to do

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
World of 8 Billion | Student Video Contest for Grades 6-12

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
As the world population continues to grow every day, World of 8 Billion aims to educate our children on sustainability, population trends, and the environment. Learn more about our student video contest and find teacher resources to support these topics here!

# data[].attributes.body
Live count of the human population

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
This site requires Javascript enabled to retrieve and display data.

Northeast Midwest West South

Is this page helpful?

Yes

No

255 characters maximum 255 characters maximum reached

Thank you for your feedback.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Shows estimates of current USA Population overall and people by US state/county and of World Population overall, by country and most populated countries.

# data[].attributes.body
Online lab with two species of  Paramecium

# data[].attributes.body
Online simulation re: carrying capacity

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Interactivate: Rabbits and Wolves

Rabbits and Wolves: Experiment with a simple ecosystem consisting of grass, rabbits, and wolves, learning about probabilities, chaos, and simulation.

On a mission to transform learning through computational thinking, Shodor is dedicated to the reform and improvement of mathematics and science education through student enrichment, faculty enhancement, and interactive curriculum development at all levels. Student development of numerical models and simulations integrated with core curriculum provides an opportunity to gain practical experience in computational science. Additionally, the National Computational Science Institute (NCSI) provides nation-wide workshops portraying resources and instructional ideas to middle school, high school, and undergraduate instructors for use in the classroom. Resources and materials offered to these instructors are available free of charge from Shodor's website and are largely developed by Shodor student interns. Shodor's academic program efficiently guides participants from excitement to experience to expertise through computational explorations, research opportunities, and service.

We're sorry!

We have detected JavaScript as being disabled in your browser.

The links below provide instructions for enabling JavaScript dependent on your browser.

Mozilla Firefox Users
Internet Explorer Users
Safari Users

After enabling JavaScript, refresh the page.
You may also try using the help feature of your browser.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Interactivate: Rabbits and Wolves On a mission to transform learning through computational thinking, Shodor is dedicated to the reform and improvement of mathematics and science education through student enrichment, faculty enhancement, and interactive curriculum development at all levels. Student development of numerical models and simulations integrated with core curriculum provides an opportunity to gain practical experience in computational science.