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Bill Nelson - Democratic

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Rick Scott - Republican

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The median age in Florida is approximately 41, with 51.1% females and 48.9% males in the state.

Racial Diversity of Florida: There are approximately 75.9% Caucasians, 16.1% African American, 2.6% Asian, 2.5% other race, 2.5% two or more races, and .1% Native Islanders within the population of Florida.

The Florida population is recorded as 70% Christian based faiths, 24% no particular faith, and 6% non-Christian faith based.

The hispanic population in Florida consists of mainly people of Cuban descent. The majority of the hispanic population is conservative.

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Voter turnout in last election (2012) (if available)

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Voter turnout in last election (2012) (if available)

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-Voter turnout generally increased across the state of Florida in 2016 (74% of registered voters voted) as compared to 2012 (72% of registered voters voted)
-Thirteen of 14 North Central Florida counties — including Alachua, Hernando and Marion, the three largest in the area in terms of population — saw an increase in voter turnout from their 2012 levels

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*Registration Requirements:
-Must be at least 18 years of age
-A citizen of the United States
-Legal resident of Florida and the county in which he or she intends to vote
-Registration forms must be completed at least 29 days prior to the election one wishes to vote
-Identification is required to register
*Voter ID laws:
-Voters in Florida are required to present photo and signature identification on Election Day. If a voter's photo ID does not display his or her signature, he or she will need to supply a second form of identification that does
*Voting by mail:
-Florida permits voting by mail
*Early voting:
-Florida permits no-excuse early voting

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Background Information on Candidates' Primary Race

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Background Information on Candidates' Primary Race

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*Bill Nelson: No Democratic primary was held due to both of Nelson’s opponents’ failures to qualify for the ballot.
*Rick Scott: The republican primary was considered a formality, as the governor’s only challenger was a perennial candidate that was also running in eight other states.

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How does this candidate fit in their party (moderate, more ideological?)

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How does this candidate fit in their party (moderate, more ideological?)

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*Bill Nelson
-In the Senate, he is generally considered a moderate democrat
*Rick Scott
-Rick Scott is generally considered an extreme and conservative republican

- neither candidate is involved in a scandal

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Which interest groups are spending money? Any from outside of the state?

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Which interest groups are spending money? Any from outside of the state?

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Below the chart (provided by opensecrets.org) is a comparison of the contributions of different sectors of interest groups (agribusiness groups, electronic, construction, defense, energy/natural resource, finance, health, lawyer and lobbyists, transportation, misc business, ideology, single issue, other unspecified groups, and labor. ) According to the comparison of sectors, ideology and single issue sectors have contributed the most to both candidates.
According to opensecrets.org, Bill Nelson has raised 50.2% ($10,795,732) of his contributions out of state, and Rick Scott has raised 29.2% ($3,254,769) of his contributions out state. This can indicate that there are other states that want a Democratic candidate in congress.

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Support for Trump in the 2016 presidential election

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Support for Trump in the 2016 presidential election

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Trump won Florida by 100,000 votes in 2016 - ultimately dividing the state on the President. Morning Consult reported 50% of Floridians approve of Trump and 46% disapprove.
Rick Scott initially chaired a pro-Trump Super PAC, endorsing the future President, and spoke at the Republican National Convention. However, he has been distancing himself and less likely to support Trump publicly on some issues because of the controversies.

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Report a public opinion poll and evaluate the credibility (sample size, margin of error, source)

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Report a public opinion poll and evaluate the credibility (sample size, margin of error, source)

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According to FiveThirtyEight, taking the weighted average of polls (67 in total) from the race, polls of similar races, and non-polling factors called fundamentals:
- Democrats (Bill Nelson) have a 70.4% chance at winning while Republicans (Rick Scott) have a 29.6% chance of winning.
- The forecasted turnout estimates that 7,090,000 out of 13,300,000 eligible voters will cast a ballot. (53.3%)
- The weighted average margin of error of these 67 polls is D+3.0 which is not significant considering the estimated results between the Democrats and Republicans is so large.

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Bill Nelson is endorsed by:

American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) Florida

Communications Workers of America

End Citizens United

Feminist Majority Political Action Committee

Florida AFL-CIO

Florida NOW PAC-CCE

Giffords

League of Conservation Voters

National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare

National Education Association

National Organization for Women

NRDC Action Fund

Ocean Champions

Palm Beach County Human Rights Council

Planned Parenthood Action Fund

Pride Fund to End Gun Violence

Sierra Club

The Coalition to Stop Gun Violence

United Auto Workers

VoteVets.org

Rick Scott is endorsed by:

Associated Builders and Contractors

Associated General Contractors of America

Campaign for Working Families

Florida Chamber of Commerce

Florida Family Action

Florida Right to Life

National Federation of Independent Business

The Club for Growth

United States Chamber of Commerce

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What are the big issues? Are they national or local?

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What are the big issues? Are they national or local?

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National issues prominent in this race include gun safety, health care, and immigration. Local issues include the effects of Hurricane Michael, including the management of agriculture and the effects of climate change.

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Thesis - take a side and predict the election outcome

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Thesis - take a side and predict the election outcome

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Based on our statistics and information gathered on the Senate Florida Midterm Election, we predict that Democrat, Bill Nelson will win the Midterm Election.

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DESCRIBE (definition + description) + EXPLAIN why the 2 pieces of evidence support your prediction (Use Core 4) 

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DESCRIBE (definition + description) + EXPLAIN why the 2 pieces of evidence support your prediction (Use Core 4) 

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*Bill Nelson has incumbency advantage.
-He is the current U.S Senator and was first elected to the senate in 2000.
1) Define: An incumbent is a government official who currently holds office. The officeholder has name recognition, casework, campaign financing, and usually redistricting on his side.
2) Explain: Because the officeholder has name recognition, casework, etc. on his side, the incumbent  has an advantage over his challenger. This makes Bill Nelson more likely to win the midterm election.
3) Example: Nelson has already served three terms. He has earned name recognition. The more people recognize his name on the ballot, the more votes he earns.
4) Thus: Bill Nelson's role as an incumbent will allow him to win the Midterm Election.

*Because of President Trump's negative impact on Rick Scott from 2016, Democrats have a higher chance of winning
1) Define: President Trump (Republican) has negatively impacted Rick Scott (Republican). It is common for a president's party to loose seats in the midterm election as over the past 21 midterm elections, the President's party has lost an average 30 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate
Explain: Especially because Rick Scott is known supporter of Trump, Trump's negative impact (travel ban, opening the Arctic Refuge for oil drilling, etc.),is greater for Rick. Rick Scott is known for heading a Super PAC that has raised 20 million for Trump's election and known as being supported by Trump because so.  The negative impact on the Republican Party  which has more voters disapproving (44%) compared to approving of  Trump (41%) has caused voters to vote for Bill Nelson, a democrat, instead.
3) For example, after Trump was elected in 2016, Democrats led by an average of 8.4% percentage points in polls of the generic congressional ballot.
4) Thus, President Trump's negative impact on Rick Scott from 2016 allow Democrats to have a higher chance of winning.

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Offer an alternate perspective - highlight a weakness in your evidence or another piece of evidence that points in the other direction

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Offer an alternate perspective - highlight a weakness in your evidence or another piece of evidence that points in the other direction

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Even though Democrats lead in the generic congressional ballot, Florida is 5.4 percentage points more Republican leaning than the country overall based on how it voted in recent presidential and state legislative elections.  However because there are more Florida voters who disapprove (44%) than approve of the current republican president (41%), the fact that it is more Republican may not make a strong difference.

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Bousquet, Steve. “One Week out, Voter Turnout Tops 3 Million in Florida.” Tampa Bay Times, Tampa Bay Times, 30 Oct. 2018, www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/30/total-early-turnout-tops-3-million-in-florida/.

Chokey, Aric, and John Maines. “More Young People Signed up to Vote in Florida This Year than before the 2014 Midterms.” Www.sun-Sentinel.com, Sun Sentinel, 29 Oct. 2018, projects.sun-sentinel.com/2018/fl-voters/.

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Public Opinion Polls (Pew, Gallup, media sources)

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Public Opinion Polls (Pew, Gallup, media sources)

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Silver, Nate. “Florida - 2018 Senate Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight, 3 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/florida/.

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Bill Nelson:
“Bill Nelson for U.S. Senate.” Bill Nelson for U.S. Senate, nelsonforsenate.com/.

Rick Scott:
Ironcore. Rick Scott for Florida, rickscottforflorida.com/.

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Secretary of State Website for the State 

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Secretary of State Website for the State 

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Florida Department of State, dos.myflorida.com/.

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*Demographic makeup of state: “Florida Population 2018.” Florida Population 2018 (Demographics, Maps, Graphs), worldpopulationreview.com/states/florida-population/.

*Voter Registration Laws:
“Voting in Florida.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Voting_in_Florida.In

*Bill Nelson moderate democrat
“Bill Nelson.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 2 Nov. 2018, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Nelson.

*Voter Turnout
Flores, Jocelyn, and Alex Sargent. “Florida Voter Turnout Climbs From 2012, Analysis Shows.” WUFT News, WUFT News, 7 Dec. 2016, www.wuft.org/news/2016/12/07/florida-voter-turnout-climbs-from-2012-analysis-shows/.

*Donald Trump's negative impact:
“Donald Trump.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 4 Nov. 2018, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump.

*Vote Smart:
“The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, votesmart.org/.
Koger, Gregory. “Race for the Senate 2018: Key Issues in Florida.” Brookings, Brookings, 2 Nov. 2018, www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/10/22/race-for-the-senate-2018-key-issues-in-florida/.

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“Florida Senate 2018 Race.” OpenSecrets, The Center for Responsive Politics, www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=FLS1.

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“The Florida Senate.” District Maps - The Florida Senate, The Florida Senate, www.flsenate.gov/Senators/Districts.

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The 2018 Mid-term Florida Senate elections is known to be the most expensive campaign.
The Senate election will be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2018. with 35 seats available. Florida, as a swing state, currently has Bill Nelson (from 2001) who has served three terms and running again and Marco Rubio (from 2011) still ongoing his second term.