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A difference with this election is that the early voter turnout rivals that of the 2016 presidential election which can indicate a possible shift in political party voting

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Rapper, Travis Scott, spoke at a Beto rally

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Professional basketball player, Lebron James, wearing a Beto cap

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In the 2018 Texas Senate Race, it is predicted that Republican Ted Cruz will win reelection and remain in his seat in Senate. In the public poll taken by CNN, as well in the other polls, it is shown that Cruz is more likely to gain voters over Democrat O'Rourke. The CNN poll has a 95% confidence level for the total respondents with a +/- 3.8 margin of error. With this it supports the prediction as this confidence level is for Cruz winning with 50% registered voters and Beto only getting 45%. Another piece is that Texas has voted republican for over 40 years and just in the 2016 Presidential Election, Texas voted Republican with 52.2% and Democratic with 43.2%. This example also shows how Texan voters are overwhelmingly Republican and despite this Senate race have a smaller difference in percentages than previous elections, Republicans still remain in the lead.
Although the evidence of the poll and past elections support the conclusion that Cruz would win, there is the possibility the Beto could pull through. This possibility comes from the basis on trends of large cities turning Democratic and record breaking midterm voter turnout - turnout rivaling that of the 2016 presidential election. From the top 30 counties with the most registered voters, 4.8 million people voted early this year. This outnumbers the 4.7 million early and Election Day votes in the 2014 midterms.  Despite this possibility, Cruz would still win because even though the gap between the candidates is smaller than past elections, there will not be enough votes in time for Beto to successfully beat Cruz.

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Both Candidates receive endorsements and donations from varying institutions and interest groups. Both also

Beto O'Rourke top contributors include University of Texas, University of California, and AT&T Inc.

Ted Cruz's top contributors include Woodforest Financial Group, Senate Conservatives Fund, and NorPAC.

Senator Cruz also has an advantage in this race as he is endorsed by the current president Donald Trump who can sway Texas voters if they are undecided as this gives Cruz attention to his campaign and ideals.

Beto O'Rourke gets a lot of endorsements from celebrities which boosts his ability to get noticed as the celebrities get a lot of media coverage.

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“About Beto.” Beto for Senate, betofortexas.com/about/.

Bragman, Walker, et al. “Hear Me Out: Beto O'Rourke Is Going to Win Texas.” Pastemagazine.com, www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2018/11/hear-me-out-beto-orourke-is-going-to-win-texas.html.

“Early-Voting Turnout in Dallas, Other North Texas Counties More than Double Past Midterm Elections.” Dallas News, 3 Nov. 2018, www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/11/03/early-voting-turnout-dallas-north-texas-counties-double-past-midterm-elections.

“Midterm Election Poll: Texas Senate, Cruz vs. O'Rourke.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 8 Oct. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-txsen-2.html.

Moritz, John C. “Where Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke Stand on the Issues in Texas' US Senate Race.” Corpus Christi Caller-Times, Corpus Christi Caller Times, 29 Oct. 2018, www.caller.com/story/news/local/texas/state-bureau/2018/09/10/beto-orourke-ted-cruz-texas-senate-race-health-care-education-and-impeachment/1221571002/.

Ramsey, Ross. “Ted Cruz Leads Beto O'Rourke by 6 in Texas Senate Race, UT/TT Poll Finds.” The Texas Tribune, Texas Tribune, 26 Oct. 2018, www.texastribune.org/2018/10/26/ut-tt-poll-ted-cruz-leads-beto-orourke-texas-senate/.

“Rep. Beto O'Rourke - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033540.

“Sen. Ted Cruz - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033085.

“Texas Election Results 2016.” The New York Times, The New York Times, www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/texas.

“Texas Senate Primary Election Results.” The New York Times, The New York Times, www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-senate-primary-election.

“U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Texas.” Census Bureau QuickFacts, www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/tx/PST045217.

Wallace, Jeremy. “Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke Differ Sharply on Key Foreign Policy Issues.” Houston Chronicle, Houston Chronicle, 30 Oct. 2018, www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Ted-Cruz-and-Beto-O-Rourke-differ-sharply-on-13337626.php.

Whyte, Luke, and Annie Daniel. “Here's Where Texas Voters Turned out and Where They Didn't.” The Texas Tribune, Texas Tribune, 9 Nov. 2016, www.texastribune.org/2016/11/09/heres-where-texas-voters-turned-out-and-where-they/.

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This poll was conducted from October 9, 2018 to October 13, 2018 among a sample of 1,004 respondents in Texas

The margin of sampling error for total respondents is +/-3.8 at the 95% confidence level, for results among the 862 registered voters it is +/-4.1, and for results among the 716 likely voters it is +/-4.5

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An October poll, 15th to 21st, in which results continue to show Ted Cruz at 51% ahead of Beto O'Rourke. at 45%

This internet survey of 1,200 registered voters has an overall margin of error of +/- 2.83 percentage points. The likely voter sample of 927 voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.22 percentage points. This data may indicate credibility

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Foreign Affairs

Beto supported the Iran nuclear deal made during the Obama Administration and along with Cruz he supports Israel

Cruz is against the Iran nuclear deal and says that it was a catastrophic failure, funneling billions of U.S. dollars to the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism

Economy

Beto promotes regulations on business and industry that protect consumers, promote competition and grow the economy. He supports stronger antitrust regulations to break up monopolies he says stifle competition and innovation.

Cruz supports the 2017 tax cut package, wants to reform Social Security, and says he would raise retirement age gradually

Immigration

Beto is a fierce opponent of the building of a wall and has rallied to protest  the administration's family separation policy for people who enter the United States without documentation. He supports a path to citizenship for immigrant children who crossed the border with parents or other family members.

Cruz's arguments mainly support the Trump idea of building the wall on the US-Mexican border. He is also against a Trump-backed initiative to offer 1.8 million young immigrants citizenship

Health Care

Beto calls for strengthening and extending Obamacare

Cruz is an outspoken critics of former President Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act.  He wants the law to be replaced with a law that would allow Americans to purchase health insurance across state lines.

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In a October poll (Oct 8 - 11) with a sample of 800 voters, Ted Cruz was favored over Beto O'Rourke

The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is seven points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate’s vote share

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Texas has not voted Democratic since 1976 and has not voted for any Democrat to statewide office since 1994

Each candidate is greatly representative of the far ends of their parties - Beto is running as an unabashed progressive and Cruz personifies Tea Party activism

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According to this data, Texas voted for Donald Trump (R) in the 2016 Presidential Election

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Registration Laws in Texas you must be 18 years or older on election day, a United States citizen, and a resident of the county where the application is submitted

Must not be finally convicted of a felony or, if so, have completed the terms of the jail sentence, probation or parole, and have not been declared by a court exercising probate jurisdiction to be either totally mentally incapacitated or partially mentally incapacitated without the right to vote

To vote you are required to have an acceptable photo ID

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Voter Turnout History (Presidential Election 2016)

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Voter Turnout History (Presidential Election 2016)

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Voter Turnout in Texas has remained low only increasing during general elections. This shows how there a very few people who have a genuine and strong interest in politics and which candidates are chosen

Texas is known for low voter turnout. Fewer than 2 million of the state's 19 million adults voted in 2014's primaries, and only 4.7 million voted in the general elections

Democrats in 2008. That year, nearly 2.9 million Texans showed up to choose between Hillary Clinton and Obama — the first time more than 2 million Democrats showed up for a primary since 1972

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In Texas, white accounts for 79.2% of the population, hispanic/latin origin account for 39.4% and black or African American accounts for 12.7%.

Only 28.1% of the population holds a higher-level educational degree.

19.4% of the population does not have health care

14.7% of the Texas population is categorized as in poverty.

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O'Rourke beat both Hernandez and Kimbrough by a large amount

O'Rourke won majority of the state but only did not secure the southern part of Texas which went to Hernandez

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“About Beto.” Beto for Senate, betofortexas.com/about/.

Agiesta, Jennifer. “CNN Polls: Tight Senate Contests in Arizona, Nevada in Final Week.” CNN, Cable News Network, 31 Oct. 2018, www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/politics/cnn-poll-arizona-nevada-senate-races/index.html.

“Arizona Primary Election Results.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 28 Aug. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/28/us/elections/arizona-primary-elections.html.

“Arizona Senate Race.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/races/contributors?cycle=2018&id=AZS2&spec=N.

Blanton, Dana. “Fox News Poll: Trump Approval Remains High in Senate Battleground States.” Fox News, FOX News Network, www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-trump-approval-remains-high-in-senate-battleground-states.

“The Democrats.” Democrats, democrats.org/.

“Home.” McSally for Senate, mcsallyforsenate.com/home/.

“House Republicans.” Gop.gov, www.gop.gov/.

“An Independent Voice for Arizona.” Sinema for Arizona, kyrstensinema.com/.

“McSally Wins Arizona Senate GOP Primary over Arpaio and Ward, NBC Projects.” NBCNews.com, NBCUniversal News Group, www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/arizona-senate-republican-primary-election-results-n904601.

Norrander, Barbara. “Race for the Senate 2018: Key Issues in Arizona.” Brookings, Brookings, 2 Nov. 2018, www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/10/25/race-for-the-senate-2018-key-issues-in-arizona/.

“Polls.” RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Sinema, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html.

“TRF AZ '18 Oct Poll Report.pdf.” Google Drive, Google, drive.google.com/file/d/1oHHpZeg9PCRtMsMFReBfxiKAF1XYlbiD/view.

“U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: ARIZONA.” Census Bureau QuickFacts, www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045217.

“Voter Registration & Historical Election Data.” Voter Registration & Historical Election Data | Arizona Secretary of State, azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data.

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Ted Cruz had an overwhelming win with no competition

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In the 2018 Arizona Senate Race, it is predicted that Democrat Kyrsten Sinema will win the open seat in the Senate. In the public opinion poll taken by CNN, it is shown that Sinema is able to garner more likely voters even in the presence of a narrow lead. Also the margin of error of  +/-3.7 at the 95% confidence level provided with the data indicates a small margin or error that would not affect the results of the polling data. Additionally, with Angela Green from the Green Party dropping out of the election and rallying support for Sinema, it is more likely that the Green Party members will vote for Sinema instead of voting Republican. Due to Green dropping out the election, it has put Sinema at a higher advantage in terms of voter turnout for the democratic vote. Although the evidence of the poll will provide the candidates the the public with an outlook on how likely voters may vote, it is not a direct representation of how the actual voter turnout will look during the actual election period, for there may be a larger turnout for the Republican vote. Nevertheless, the poll will still be able to serve as a glimpse into the voting behavior on Election Day such behavior may not change dramatically from the polls to the ballots. Additionally, it may be possible that the Green party voters may vote for McSally instead of Sinema in order to maintain Arizona as a Republican state. However, McSally would find it increasingly difficult to garner Green Party votes due to her advocation for an increase in military support and spending and her constant war sentiments in her campaigns.

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Health Care/Social Security

Sinema focuses many of her advertisements around health care, both in protecting those with preexisting medical conditions and maintaining Medicare in its current format.

Although McSally denies having plans to agree with privatizing Social Security and Medicaid, she has outlined her support of raising the retirement age and cutting program spending.

National Security

McSally has a focus on illegal drugs flowing across the border, rather than undocumented immigrants.

Sinema does not agree with the building of a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico.

Military Spending

McSally has a tendency to voice her military past in a way to advocate for an increase in military spending and raise military salaries. Although Sinema has voiced some agreements, she is not as passionate on the topic as she is with health care.

Overview: Both Sinema and McSally's stances on the major issues that are discussed within their campaigns do fall in line with their ideology and their party's platforms.

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According to the data, it is shown that Arizona voted for Donald Trump (R) for president in 2016.

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In the interest groups supporting both candidates, there is a dramatic difference in the types of groups that choose to endorse either candidate.

For Sinema, the major interest groups supporting her include EMILY's List (a PAC that strives to elect pro-choice female leaders), Democracy Engine, and some Universities in both Arizona and California.

For McSally, her supporting interest groups mainly include business corporations, such as Elliott Management, Raytheon Co., and Alliance Resource Partners.

Although Sinema has rallied support from Angela Green, former opponent, McSally has garnered widespread support from influential politicians, including President Trump, which is important because not only could it be used as a potential advantage, but it also brings more awareness to her campaign and her ideology. However, for those who do not agree with President Trump, this could prove to be detrimental for McSally's campaign as those who do not agree with Trump's moral may not want to vote for the person whom he is endorsing.

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This October poll, running from October 30 to November 1, is the most recent of such public opinion polls and includes a random group of 2166 likely voters, one of the largest groups of any other public opinion polls.

This poll also contains a +/- 2.1 margin of error, which is also a narrow margin in comparison to other public opinion polls.

Within the poll, it is shown that Sinema received 47.9% of votes while McSally received 46.9%. Such a margin of error does indicate a sense of credibility, however errors within the sampling can be attributed to the large sampling group.

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In an October poll ran from October 27 to October 29, there was a random sample of 710 registered voters with a defined amount of 643 voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

In this race, both candidates tie 46% amongst likely voters, which shows a decrease in both Sinema and McSally's poll data from previous polling periods.

The margin of sampling error indicated within the poll shows that there is credibility and that the race between both candidates is becoming narrower.

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Ted Cruz is currently the incumbent candidate in this race

Has worked as an attorney

Cruz ran for Republican Presidential nomination for the 2016 Presidential election but finished second to Mr. Trump for nomination

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Beto O'Rourke began his political career by running for El Paso City Council and served two terms before running for U.S. Congress

O'Rourke currently serves on the House Committees for Armed Services and Veterans Affairs where he has made it a priority to work to secure bipartisan support for his legislation

He is the a U.S. Representative for Texas' 16th district

Much of Beto's focus has been on improving the ability for veterans to get the healthcare and earned benefits they need

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In a recent October poll (10/24-10/29) with 702 likely voters, the tides have shifted from previous polls as the lead between Kyrsten and Sinema has narrowed from a previous 7-point lead, as polled in September. According to polling data, the divide between the two in well within the poll's margin of sampling error.

The margin of sampling error
for total respondents is +/-3.7 at the 95% confidence level, for results among the 867 registered voters it is +/-4.0,
and for results among the 702 likely voters it is +/-4.4. This data may indicate credibility within the results given.

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As with nationwide voting laws, you must be a U.S. citizen, a resident of Arizona and the county listed on your registration, and be at least 18 years old at the time of voting. Additionally, you may not vote if you are a felon who has not had his/her civil rights restored.

You may register to vote online, in person, or via mail.

You do not need an ID to vote early, however on election day, you will need an adequate photo ID bearing your name and address. If you are without an ID you will be able to vote a conditional provisional ballot, in which you will be given 3 business days to supply your information.

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Voter Turnout History (Presidential Election 2016)

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Voter Turnout History (Presidential Election 2016)

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As seen in the tables, the Democratic and Republican parties, along with those categorized as  other of partisan groups, account for most of the registered voters in Arizona.

According to the historical general election information, it can be seen that in 2012, the voter turnout was 74.36%, and in 2016, the voter turnout was 74.17%. Although there was a decrease, there wasn't a significant dramatic decrease at all.

Voter turnout also indicates that there is more voter participation in the general elections, than in midterms, which is imperative for the candidates running in the midterm this year.

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In Arizona, white accounts for 83.1% of the population, while those of hispanic/latin origin account for 31.4%.

Only 28% of the population holds a higher-level educational degree.

12% of the population does not have health care

14.9% of the Arizona population is categorized as in poverty.

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Sinema defeats Deedra Abboud with a whopping 80.5% of state votes across 1,420 precincts

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McSally defeated former Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Kelli Ward

McSally had 51.4% of state votes

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There are no incumbents running for the Arizona Senate

The senate race is for the open seat left by Senator Jeff Flake, who will not be running for re-election

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Angela Green, candidate of the Green Party, dropped out of the race and rallied support for the Democratic candidate, Kyrsten Sinema.

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Kyrsten Sinema has served as a U.S. Representative from Arizona's 9th Congressional District since 2013.

Sinema began her political career as a Green Party activist before joining the Democratic Party and becoming a state legislator.

If elected, she will be the first openly bisexual person elected to the U.S. Senate and the second openly LGBTQ+ person ever to serve in the Senate.

Due to many of Sinema's beliefs, her ideology fits farther left on the political spectrum, leaning towards liberal.

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Congresswoman Martha McSally currently represents Arizona’s Second Congressional District in the United States House of Representatives.

She serves on the Armed Services and Homeland Security Committees, and she also chairs the Border and Maritime Security Subcommittee.

Before her election in 2004, she retired from the Air Force, where she was deployed six times and reached the rank of Colonel

McSally's voting history within Congress has shown her to have an ideology further right on the political spectrum.