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Port in a storm: the trailblazing town welcoming climate refugees in Bangladesh

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Port in a storm: the trailblazing town welcoming climate refugees in Bangladesh

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Abstract: "The river town of Mongla is leading the way in a project to resettle people in a region decimated by extreme weather" (Ahmed & Choat, 2022)

As the climate crisis leads to ever more migration within Bangladesh, one coping strategy is the direction of migration flows from the capital of Dhaka towards smaller urban areas.

The article highlights Mongla, one of the towns identified as a potential destination for these migration flows. Mongla has seen infrastructure improvements over the last years, leading to more resilience towards the climate crisis.

In Mongla, divisions between people who lived there before and those migrating to the city play out along class divisions. Local politics wants to actively counter this issue.

QUESTION: What distinguishes the places that people are migrating to when they are forced to migrate within Bangladesh?

POSSIBLE RESEARCH QUESTION: Which effect do the efforts of local politicians in Mongla, Bangladesh have when they are trying to counter divisions within their community that can be linked to migration?

Matriculation number: 1350671

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Port in a storm: the trailblazing town welcoming climate refugees in Bangladesh

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The river town of Mongla is leading the way in a project to resettle people in a region decimated by extreme weather

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When Fishers Become Truckers [Translation] 

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When Fishers Become Truckers [Translation] 

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Abstract: Over the last years, almost five million people had to leave the coastal regions of Bangladesh due to the implications of the climate crisis. In 30 years, [this number] will be up to 25 million. (Montu, 2022) [Translation]

The climate crisis leads to the displacement of people in Bangladesh's coastal regions through typhoons, rising sea levels, flash floods, and the erosion of river banks (Montu, 2022, para. 4).

People who are displaced by the climate crisis relocate first to neighboring places but ultimately often end up in cities' slums. There, they face unemployment and poverty.

Most of the displaced people that are now living in the slums of the country's capital Dhaka want to return to the placed that they were displaced from.

QUESTION: How does the climate crisis affect people living in the coastal regions of Bangladesh?

POSSIBLE RESEARCH QUESTION: How does the forced work migration of their family members affect women's position in Bangladesh's society?

Matriculation number: 1350671

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Wir überleben, indem wir die Naturkatastrophen bekämpfen, Tag für Tag haben wir einen harten Kampf zu bestehen", sagt die 40-jährige Nazma Begum aus dem Dorf Kalabagi an der Südwestküste Bangladeschs. Früher einmal stand das Haus der Familie auf festem Grund. Fünf Umzüge später lebt Nazma Begum in einem "hängenden Haus". Jenseits des neuen Damms im äußersten Süden des Bezirks sieht man unzählige davon. Es sind einfache Pfahlbauten, mit Brettern verschlagene Hütten. Bei Flut scheinen sie im Wasser zu schwimmen, erst wenn die Ebbe einsetzt, sieht man, dass sie sich auf Stelzen einige Meter über der Wasseroberfläche befinden. Die Menschen, die hier leben, haben sie in Eigenregie gebaut, um sich vor den in immer kürzeren Abständen auftretenden Fluten zu schützen.

1988, 2007 und 2009 wurde Kalabagi von Zyklonen heimgesucht. Nach Aila (2009) stand das Dorfgebiet fast fünf Jahre lang unter Wasser. Seit dem letzten Zyklon Amphan (2020) sind manche der Häuser und Siedlungen von der Außenwelt völlig abgeschnitten und zu Inseln geworden. Der 50-jährige Shivpad Mandal, ein Nachbar von Nazma Begum, erinnert sich lebhaft daran, wie es in Kalabagi früher ausgesehen hat. Er erzählt von großen Bäumen in Vorgärten, reichen Ernten auf den Feldern und davon, wie er einst mit dem Auto in die Stadt gefahren ist - ein Weg, den er heute im Boot zurücklegen muss.

Wie viele andere Menschen aus Kalabagi verdiente auch Shivpad Mandal seinen Lebensunterhalt in den Sundarbarns, den größten Mangrovenwäldern der Erde. Jene Dorfbewohner, die nicht vom Fischfang aus dem Shibsa lebten, gingen in den Sundurbans der Landwirtschaft nach. Heute fischen nur noch wenige Menschen im Fluss oder arbeiten in den Sundarbans. Die allermeisten sahen sich in den letzten Jahren stattdessen dazu gezwungen, auf der Suche nach Arbeit ins Ausland zu gehen.

Laut dem Global Climate Risk Index 2020 ist Bangladesch eines der am stärksten vom Klimawandel betroffenen Länder der Erde. Forscherinnen nennen die Region "klimasensitiv". Wirbelstürme, der Anstieg des Meeresspiegels, Sturzfluten und die Erosion von Flussufern gefährden die Lebensgrundlage von Millionen von Menschen. Dem Global Report on Internal Displacement 2021 des in der Schweiz ansässigen Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC) wurden bis 2020 in Bangladesch 4.443.230 Menschen vertrieben. Fast alle von ihnen aufgrund von Naturkatastrophen.

Selbst die Weltbank schlägt mittlerweile Alarm. Deren aktualisierter Groundswell Report vom September letzten Jahres rechnet mit 216 Millionen Klimaflüchtlingen in sechs Regionen der Erde bis zum Jahr 2050 - sofern nicht umgehend notwendige Maßnahmen zur Bekämpfung des Klimawandels ergriffen werden. Allein in Südostasien geht man von 40 Millionen Klimaflüchtlingen aus, die Hälfte davon erwartet die Weltbank in Bangladesch. Bangladeschs Regierung rechnet einem aktuellen Bericht zufolge sogar damit, dass in den nächsten 30 Jahren bis zu 25 Millionen Menschen aus den Küstengebieten zwangsumgesiedelt werden müssen. Dies würde die größte Migrationsbewegung in der Geschichte der Menschheit darstellen.

Brechende Dämme

Das Bild, das sich in Kalabagi zeigt, ist beileibe kein Einzelfall. Die gesamte Küste Bangladeschs, an der über 100 Millionen Menschen leben, ist von der Klimakrise direkt betroffen. Die landwirtschaftlichen Flächen und die Vegetation gehen zurück, die Trinkwasserkrise verschärft sich, der Salzgehalt im Wasser selbst steigt, die Gebiete werden zunehmend unbewohnbar. Wirbelstürme schwächen die bestehenden Dämme immer mehr; auf Initiativen, sie zu erneuern, wartet man vergebens.

In der Nacht des 20. Mai 2020, inmitten der Corona-Pandemie, als der Zyklon Amphan auf das Dorf Sreepur traf, brach der örtliche Damm. Viele Familien erklommen in dieser Nacht gerade noch den Deich und mussten von oben auf ihre Häuser unter Wasser blicken. Das gleiche Bild bot sich in den umliegenden Dörfern.

Putul Rani wohnt mit ihrer fünfköpfigen Familie seit mittlerweile zwei Jahren außerhalb des Deichs - in einem strohgedeckten Ein-Zimmer-Schuppen. Die wiederkehrenden Wirbelstürme haben ihre Familie in den Ruin getrieben. "Es ist schwer geworden, die Kinder zu ernähren", sagt die 36-Jährige. Nur ein paar Meter weiter steht das Haus von Rahima Begum. Die Naturkatastrophen haben auch sie in die Armut gestürzt - und ihrem Ehemann das Leben gekostet. Seit dem Zyklon Amphan steht ihr Ackerland unter Wasser, ihr Haus wurde weggefegt.

Seit der Militärdiktatur Hussain Muhammad Ershads (1983 bis 1990) ist Bangladesch verwaltungstechnisch in acht divisions, 64 zilas oder districts und 594 upazilas unterteilt. Die unterste Verwaltungsebene bilden die mehr als 4.500 sogenannten union parishads oder union councils, die am ehesten mit Gemeinden beziehungsweise Gemeinderäten vergleichbar sind. Der bis dato letzten Volkszählung aus dem Jahr 2011 zufolge leben allein in den drei vom Zyklon Amphan am stärksten betroffenen upazilas, Shyamnagar, Asashuni und Koyra, 779.542 Menschen.

Die nichtstaatliche Entwicklungsorganisation Local Environment Development and Agricultural Research Society (LEDARS) führte in sechs union councils in diesen drei vom Zyklon besonders betroffenen upazilas eine familienbasierte Erhebung durch. Dabei stellte sie fest, dass bis August 2020 3.822 Menschen aus dem Gebiet fliehen mussten. Menschen, die mehr als sechs Monate nach dem Zyklon nach wie vor in Schutzräumen, Schulgebäuden und auf Dämmen lebten, nicht eingerechnet. Die Einheimischen selbst gehen davon aus, dass sich die Zahl der Vertriebenen sogar auf mehr als 25.000 beläuft. Am schlimmsten ist die Situation in Pratapnagar im upazila Asashuni. Von den 18 Dörfern des union parishad Pratapnagar standen 17 mehr als zehn Monate lang unter Wasser.

Kein Geld, keine Sicherheit

Für jene Menschen, die ihr Dorf für immer verlassen müssen, ändert sich zumeist alles: die Wohnumgebung und das soziale Umfeld, die täglichen Wege und vielfach auch der Beruf. So werden aus Fischern Trucker und aus Bauern Tagelöhner. Der 45-jährige Nur Islam aus dem Dorf Kurikahunia in Pratapnagar lebte sein ganzes Leben von der Garnelenzucht. Nach dem Zyklon Amphan stand seine Garnelenfarm unter Wasser. "Kein Bauer in ganz Pratapnagar konnte sich in diesem Jahr auf die Garnelenzucht vorbereiten", erzählt sein Nachbar Mafuar Rahman. Nachdem es für Nur Islam immer schwieriger geworden war, seiner Familie zumindest drei Mahlzeiten pro Tag zu besorgen, verkaufte er seine Kühe und bezahlte dem Besitzer der Garnelenfarm davon die ausständige Pacht. Heute ist er Bootsführer.

Der Weg jener, die in Bangladesch schon jetzt ihren Wohnort in den Küstenregionen aufgrund der extremen Wetterbedingungen verlassen müssen, ist vorgezeichnet: hinter den nächsten Deich, ins Nachbardorf, in den angrenzenden Bezirk. Am Ende landen die allermeisten in den großen Städten des Landes. Inoffiziellen Zahlen zufolge siedeln sich jedes Jahr rund eine halbe Million Klimaflüchtlinge in den Slums von Dhaka, der Hauptstadt Bangladeschs, an. Hier leben bereits über 17 Millionen Menschen, beim Global Liveable Index 2021, der Liste der lebenswertesten Städte der Welt, belegte Dhaka den 137. Platz - von 140 Metropolen.

Einer gemeinsam von den NGOs Bangladesh Nari Sramik Kendra (BNSK) und Change Initiative (CI) durchgeführten Umfrage zufolge stammen etwa 50 Prozent der Menschen, die in den Slums von Dhaka leben, aus den für die zunehmenden Wirbelstürme besonders anfälligen Städten Barisal, Noakhali, Bhola, Khulna und Satkhira. Rund 93 Prozent dieser Menschen haben ihre Lebensgrundlage, 52 Prozent ihre Häuser verloren. Laut der Erhebung finden nur zehn Prozent dieser Menschen auf offiziellem Weg Arbeit, der Rest fristet ein Dasein unter erschreckenden Lebensbedingungen. Kein Wunder, dass rund 86 Prozent der Vertriebenen wieder in ihre Heimat zurückkehren wollen.

Shahida Begum kam gemeinsam mit ihrem Ehemann Iskander Ali Mollah vor neun Jahren aus dem Dorf Naihati im upazila Rupsha in den Kalyanpur-Slum von Dhaka. Damals war sie 51 Jahre alt. "Dieser Slum ist nicht mehr bewohnbar", sagt sie. "Wir sind hierhergekommen, um gut zu leben, nachdem es am Fluss unmöglich geworden war. Aber jetzt wollen wir nur mehr in unser Dorf zurückkehren." Ob und wie das gehen soll, weiß Begum nicht. Es fehlt an Geld - und an Sicherheiten.

Dass es jenen, die es nach Dhaka verschlagen hat, an Perspektiven mangelt, sieht auch Zakir Hossain Khan, Direktor der Change Initiative, so: "Was wir bräuchten, das wären Strategien und gebietsbezogene Pläne", sagt er. "Pläne, um die vulnerabelsten Teile der Bevölkerung auszubilden, ohne dabei auf ihre Fähigkeiten und Bedürfnisse zu vergessen. Und es müssen - auch auf internationaler Ebene - Mittel aufgebracht werden, um die Gründung von Kleinunternehmern zu fördern."

Verheerungen auf allen Ebenen

Anlässlich der COP26, der UN-Klimakonferenz im letzten Jahr, stellte die Regierung Bangladeschs einen Maßnahmenbericht vor. Von den im Budget für die Jahre 2021/22 für den Klimasektor vorgesehenen (und aufgrund der Pandemie später gekürzten) Mitteln für klimapolitische Maßnahmen war darin die Rede, vom Klimatreuhandfonds, den das Land eingerichtet hat, und von den 25 Ministerien, die sich mit dem Klimaschutz und seiner Finanzierung befassen. Schöne Worte, die der Dringlichkeit des Problems nicht gerecht werden.

Der Klimawandel wirkt sich in Bangladesch heute auf allen Ebenen des menschlichen Lebens aus: Klimaflüchtlinge haben keinen Zugang zu akzeptablem Wohnraum und sind in der Regel ökonomisch benachteiligt; ihre Kinder haben keine Chance auf Bildung. Diesen Menschen fehlt es an einer basalen Gesundheitsversorgung und am Geld für eine einigermaßen gesunde Ernährung; sie gehen in aller Regel keiner geordneten, also sowohl sozial als auch wirtschaftlich abgesicherten, Beschäftigung nach - das führt zu finanziellen Krisen und dazu, dass in vielen Familien die Männer in entlegene Städte ziehen, um ihren Lebensunterhalt zu verdienen. In dieser Zeit müssen sich die Frauen um die Familie kümmern, was zu Rückschritten in den Geschlechterverhältnissen führt.

Ganz zu schweigen von den Verheerungen in den Küstenregionen selbst: Vor der Küste Bangladeschs herrscht mittlerweile massive Trinkwasserknappheit, während die Versalzung des Wassers und die Erosion der Flüsse zunimmt. Jede dritte Person in diesem Gebiet leidet aufgrund des hohen Salzgehalts im Trinkwasser an Bluthochdruck.

Saleemul Huq, Direktor des Internationalen Zentrums für Klimawandel und Entwicklung (ICCCCAD), lobt zwar die Zyklonwarnung und das Schutzmanagement in den Küstengebieten von Bangladesch, weiß aber gleichzeitig, dass sich damit selbst auf kurze Sicht kaum etwas gewinnen lässt: "Ich kann den Verlust von Menschenleben verhindern", sagt er, "aber mit dem Anstieg des Meeresspiegels werden die Menschen in den unteren Küstenbezirken von Bangladesch leider allmählich ihre Lebensgrundlage verlieren." Die Folge? "Sie werden zwangsumgesiedelt werden. Es führt kein Weg daran vorbei, dass wir uns damit endlich ernsthaft befassen."

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Wenn aus Fischern Trucker werden - Tagebuch

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Wir überleben, indem wir die Naturkatastrophen bekämpfen, Tag für Tag haben wir einen harten Kampf zu bestehen", sagt die 40-jährige Nazma Begum aus dem Dorf Kalabagi an der Südwestküste Bangladeschs. Früher einmal stand das Haus der Familie auf festem Grund. Fünf Umzüge später lebt Nazma Begum in einem "hängenden Haus".

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The article by Martin Kuebler describes how many governments are planning to resettle those who live in areas that may soon become submerged in water due to rising sea levels. This "managed retreat" is described as an alternative to pushing back the coastline (as done in the Netherlands) that is increasingly a serious consideration for many communities.

The article gives an overview of the action taken by various governments around the world, showcasing that the problem of rising sea-levels affects many globally. It describes the plans set up by governments so far. For example in the United States where in response to disasters like hurricane Katrina and the superstorm Sandy states have subsidized resettlement programs to move people out of at-risk areas. Resettlement is more tricky for countries like Kiribati, which is projected to become submerged entirely. The government has bought land abroad for possible resettlement and is focused on educating its citizens to make migration abroad easier in the future.

They outline some of the issues faced in all of these cases and highlight that the willingness and means of those affected to resettle is key.

Questions:
Who is at risk due to climate change?
Is resettlement a feasible option for mitigating the effects of climate change?
How are governments planning to resettle their citizens?
In what circumstances is it feasible to resettle people living in at-risk areas?
-Susanna Eiselt

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Climate change could force billions to move by the end of the century, displaced by floods and rising sea levels. Some communities are already adapting through managed retreat and moving people to other areas.

People have been pushing back the boundary of the sea for centuries. Whether by building dikes in the Netherlands or creating artificial islands with soil and debris in places such as Hong Kong and Dubai, it once seemed as if nothing could stand in the way of our expanding landmass.

But, with rising sea levels and disastrous flooding becoming ever more common, some communities are beginning to consider the opposite approach to counter the effects of climate change: managed retreat.

This could include moving from big cities. In Sydney, Australia, the latest extreme torrential rain has caused dams to overflow and rivers to break their banks, forcing more than 30,000 residents to evacuate. Areas north and south of the city were deluged with 1.5 meters (59 inches) of rain in 24 hours, which is close to the average rainfall for a year in coastal areas of the state of New South Wales, according to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.

After Sydney also flooded in April, the premier of the state acknowledged that such extreme weather was "becoming more common," and it would be necessary to "respond to the changing environment."

What is a managed retreat from floods?

Managed retreat means permanently moving people and buildings away from vulnerable areas - either in a preventative way or, as is more often the case, after a disaster. That's been the case in New Orleans, ever since Hurricane Katrina devastated the low-lying city at the mouth of the Mississippi River in 2005.

"Climate change is affecting people all over the world, and everyone is trying to figure out what to do about it," A.R. Siders, a disaster researcher at the University of Delaware, wrote in a June 2021 study. "One potential strategy, moving away from hazards, could be very effective, but it often gets overlooked."

In New Orleans, some rebuilding projects have offered low- and middle-income families the chance to relocate to new homes on higher ground, as have buyout schemes in the surrounding state of Louisiana. Similar programs are in place nationwide: As of 2017, the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program run by disaster management agency FEMA had bought up more than 43,000 homes in flood-prone areas across the United States and its territories abroad.

But it's not always so simple: The process can be complicated by government red tape and end up exacerbating social inequalities as long-established communities are displaced.

"Managed retreat is not a low-regrets option, nor is it easily reversed," Miyuki Hino, then a Stanford University doctoral student, wrote for UK-based climate site Carbon Brief in March 2017. "There are social and psychological difficulties in moving people from their homes - particularly if it involves loss of cultural heritage or moving a family from their ancestral lands."

Buying land in other countries to rehome citizens

Kiribati, an archipelago of 33 islands in the central Pacific just barely above sea level, is among the first countries in the world to be threatened by the rising ocean. Some of its islands are already uninhabitable.

With the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicting a global average sea level rise of between 15 and 30 centimeters (6 to 12 inches) by 2050, Kiribati is running out of options. In 2014, the government bought land in Fiji so its citizens could relocate, though the government recently announced plans to use that land for farming to help feed its people, in cooperation with China. It's also working with Australia and New Zealand to develop programs that will give people the necessary skills to find jobs, should they be forced to migrate.

Giving residential areas back to nature

Learning to live with climate change can also mean tearing down existing structures and using the land for the greater good. In the US state of New Jersey, the government has been buying private residences in areas deemed vulnerable to storms or flooding linked to climate change. It's turning that land into recreational and conservation areas that, as the state's Department of Environmental Protection puts it, "will serve as natural buffers against future storms and floods."

The voluntary Blue Acres Program, first launched in the 1990s, was expanded after Superstorm Sandy devastated the area in 2012. The program has since demolished more than 700 homes in the floodplains of the Delaware, Passaic and Raritan rivers and their tributaries.

"New Jersey is going to have a wetter, more flooded future, and making Blue Acres proactive is reflecting that reality," Shawn M. LaTourette, New Jersey's environmental protection commissioner, told NJ Spotlight News in October. "The question will be how many properties can the state buy, how much it will ultimately cost, and how many willing sellers there will be."

People who live close to the sea aren't always willing to let their land be reclaimed by the encroaching waves. "Allowing water to come closer is a frightening concept for the average human being," Hans-Ulrich Rösner, who heads up the Wadden Sea office of the conservation group the World Wildlife Fund for Nature, told DW in December 2019. "You can only do it when people are convinced."

Creating one of Europe's largest floodplains by transforming fields

That was the case at a site in the Humber Estuary in eastern England, west of Hull. An attempt by the UK Environment Agency to manage flooding along the confluence of two rivers river saw about 440 hectares (1,000 acres) of agricultural land transformed into a flood storage area by intentionally removing part of an existing embankment in 2006.

The resulting floodplain, the Alkborough Flats, was one of the largest created in Europe at the time. It has reduced the risk of flooding by tidal estuary waters for about 600 properties and lessened the need for flood defenses upstream. The new wetland habitat has also attracted a variety of birds, insects, fish and vegetation. It's far from unique: The approach has also been successfully introduced in places such as the Netherlands, India and Thailand.

Indonesia mulls moving its disappearing capital city

In what is one of the most extreme examples of managed retreat, Indonesia is planning to move its capital from the overcrowded, rapidly sinking metropolis of Jakarta to a new site about 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles) away.

Parts of Jakarta, a coastal city home to more than 10 million people, are subsiding at a rate of up to 20 centimeters a year, caused in part by overextraction of groundwater; most of North Jakarta could be submerged by 2050 due to rising sea levels and regular flooding. But, even if the government finds a new home, the millions of Jakartans living in slums will most likely have to fend for themselves.
Edited by: Tamsin Walker

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Rising water pushes planned migration - DW - 07/04/2022

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Climate change could force billions to move by the end of the century, displaced by floods and rising sea levels. Some communities are already adapting through managed retreat and moving people to other areas. People have been pushing back the boundary of the sea for centuries.

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I’m a climate refugee. I feel guilty that I escaped while my family remains in danger

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I’m a climate refugee. I feel guilty that I escaped while my family remains in danger

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This first person column published by CBC News is written by Rubaiyat Karim. She tells the story of her and her family's lives which have been heavily influenced by the impacts of climate change.

Her family is from Dhaka, Bangladesh and moved to Los Angeles, in part for economic reasons, but also to escape the political unrest that is largely fueled by the increasingly intense and frequent monsoons in Dhaka. She moved away from Los Angeles to escape the frequent forest fires. Her mother's health suffered especially from the low air quality, so her parents decided to move back to Dhaka. She has decided not to return to Dhaka herself because she is not optimistic about the future existence of much of the city.

The lives and health of her family has been impacted strongly by these climate-related problems, so she cares quite deeply about these issues and worries for her family living in Dhaka.

She sees the responsibility with wealthy nations like Canada with large greenhouse gas emissions to curb these to reduce the number of people who might end up as climate refugees as well.

Questions:
What is it like to be a climate refugee?
What forms of loss might climate refugees experience?
Why do some climate refugees (not) return?
How do climate refugees feel toward those who remain, especially family members?
How can being a climate refugee shape how seriously a person takes issues of climate change?
Who is responsible for combatting climate change?

-Susanna Eiselt

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I feel guilty that I escaped while my family remains in danger

This First Person column is written by Rubaiyat Karim, a Bangladeshi Canadian living in Toronto. For more information about CBC's First Person stories, please see the FAQ.

We stepped through the small opening of our wrought-iron gates onto a small wooden boat. It was large enough to carry us as we rowed through the waters to a nearby shop for some staples. For my eight-year-old gaze, this was an adventure.

People recognize Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, as one of the most densely populated areas of the world. So you are more likely to hear a cacophony of sounds coming from rickshaws, motorcycles, cars, buses, and transport trucks. But on this day, it was the serene splashes of murky, smelly green water with floating bags as my sister and I made the journey through the main streets of the financial district with my grandfather.

He took us out for a joyride and demonstration of the severe impact of climate change. Monsoons occur yearly, but this was unusual. We hadn't left the house for days, and the water had not receded. As a child, I didn't understand the depth of what my grandfather wanted us to understand, but that was likely my first experience of severe weather made stronger and more frequent as a result of climate change.

In hindsight, it foreshadowed how climate change would continue to follow me - and in turn, decide - wherever I have lived.

For most of my childhood in Bangladesh, I recall a regular stream of visitors from the northwest part of the country - where my grandparents were born - staying in our multi-generational home in Dhaka. These people were often farmers who depended on the land to grow jute, tea and rice on the rich soil carried down by the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. But soaring temperatures, melting Himalayan glaciers and rising sea levels meant floods arrived with increasing regularity in our country.

The regular riverbank flooding meant these family friends lost their homes and livelihood all at once. Fortunes changed overnight. They came to the city to work, save money, and rebuild their home. Sometimes they would settle in Dhaka when the riverbanks receded because there was no land to which to return.

Climate change is estimated to displace one in every seven people in Bangladesh by 2050. Bangladesh may lose approximately 11 per cent of its land by then, and up to 18 million people may have to migrate because of sea-level rise alone.

That's what happened to my grandmother's ancestral home in 1991. devoured her brick and mortar home. It saddens me to think she doesn't have a physical marker of our ancestors. Our missing home is a reminder of climate change. The riverbank erosion

Nowadays, we are known as climate refugees. I don't foresee returning home as my parents did. But in 30 years, what will remain? It saddens me to think of it.

2002: Los Angeles, Calif.

It was the final week of my last year at university. I rushed to campus to take an exam, half wishing the university would cancel them due to the wildfires.

"Does anyone ever feel prepared for these things?" I wondered. I glanced over my shoulders to ensure I had locked my car with the steering wheel lock. I was feeling somewhat absent-minded. The skies were overcast. Ash, high winds, and smoke from the dry bush fires in and around the San Fernando Valley covered the horizon. A post-apocalyptic scene.

When I was 14, I immigrated to Los Angeles with my parents. My father, a trained engineer, wanted a fresh start away from Bangladesh's economic and political turmoil. Climate change fuelled the unrest in many ways - land erosion meant the loss of livelihoods, rapid urbanization, lack of economic opportunities and poverty.

While we fled rising waters in Bangladesh, here in California, I faced a new form of climate change: wildfires.

Drought, wildfires and extreme weather sum up southern California chaparral more than the cinematic sand, surf and sunset. Fires were natural to California, but today, they burn regularly. Fifteen of the 20 largest fires in California history have taken place since 2000, and scientists say climate change is the cause of these events. Warmer temperatures rob plants and trees of more water, making them the perfect dry fuel to keep fires raging.

In 2002, the air quality on campus and traffic conditions in the valley were so horrid that my mother's asthma flared up, and she stayed home from work. Stay indoors. Close all doors and windows. Place a damp cloth over your nose if you leave home. I recall the myriad instructions to protect ourselves. It always felt like I wasn't doing enough, that somehow the issue of climate change was a personal failure - for example, maybe we hadn't cleared enough dry bush around our property.

After years of working as a social worker in California with immigrant communities that kept getting battered by American policies, I wanted a fresh start. I also wanted to get away from the annual wildfires. So I arrived in Toronto in 2008, and it has been my home ever since.

When the reports of the devastating heat wave sweeping South Asia in May hit my newsfeeds, I anxiously called my mother in Dhaka. My parents had returned to Bangladesh as empty nesters and started a green energy company focused on installing solar panels and LED lights in large buildings.

My mother has asthma and recounted the poor air quality and stifling heat wave, which she hoped would be dampened by the coming monsoon rains. That season, the temperature exceeded 40 C, and she said it was hard to breathe. She had been nauseous for days.

"Are you staying hydrated?" I asked.

She told me they had lost power, so the generator was on to keep the AC unit going, but it still wasn't enough.

Fear. Guilt. Worry. All these emotions crossed my mind as we continued to chat. The polarity of our experiences at that moment struck me. In Toronto, I have relative control over how I experience the environment. If the heat on my patio gets unbearable, I could step inside and crank up the AC. I rarely contend with power outages. But the privileges afforded me in Toronto were not the ones my parents endured in Dhaka.

I'm so conscious of climate change and how it affects my family that, naturally, it also informs many of my decisions. How could it not? I get fresh local produce from a program that supports Ontario farmers because I know my grandparents' and friends' pain at losing their land in Bangladesh. I compost and grow what my partner calls a veritable rainforest because I do not want to waste and use more resources than I need.

My partner and I chose not to have children because we didn't want to bring another human into this world in crisis.

In anticipation of the return to the workplace once more people were vaccinated against COVID-19, we moved closer to work and wanted to cycle instead of drive. We use public transit and plan to buy an electric vehicle.

As a teacher, I have conversations with my students about who is most impacted by climate change and environmental racism.

Wealthier nations such as Canada are responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions, but developing countries experience the harsher impacts of the climate crisis. The sheer inequity of the climate crisis fuels my guilt - my privileged status as a Canadian protects me.

I try to change the things that are within my control, small though they might feel, because there's not much I can do for my family back in Bangladesh. I'm happy my parents have the choice to return home to Dhaka. It's something they wanted to do for a long time. For myself, I don't have the choice, because I don't believe that home will exist in the next 30 years. I'm a climate refugee, but I hope others can avoid this fate.

Do you have a compelling personal story that can bring understanding or help others? We want to hear from you. Here's more info on how to pitch to us.

About the Author

Rubaiyat Karim Freelance contributor

Rubaiyat Karim is a social worker working as a teacher and counsellor. She enjoys hikes in and around Toronto as the seasons change.

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I'm a climate refugee. I feel guilty that I escaped while my family remains in danger

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I feel guilty that I escaped while my family remains in danger This First Person column is written by Rubaiyat Karim, a Bangladeshi Canadian living in Toronto. For more information about CBC's First Person stories, please see the FAQ . We stepped through the small opening of our wrought-iron gates onto a small wooden boat.

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Why the conversation about climate change and migration needs to change

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Why the conversation about climate change and migration needs to change

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The article discusses central public narratives concerning displacement due to climate change throughout the last few years. It raises important misconceptions that are often portrayed in the media, for example, that climate-influenced migration happens internationally and not within countries (borders).

Q:
What is the narrative of framing migration due to climate change in the public?

Can you isolate climate change as a driver in displacement or does the latter interact with other factors as well?

Elisabeth Drahoss

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BOSTON, United States

If you haven't seen the projections, you've probably still absorbed the gist of them: At some point in the not-too-distant future an astronomical number of people will likely be displaced by climate change. Estimates range from 140 million to 1.2 billion by 2050.

For some, these vast numbers conjure cataclysmic images of hordes of desperate people escaping climate hotspots in the Global South, clamouring to cross borders into Europe and the United States. And they're often accompanied by an important caveat: The worst version of this nightmare scenario can still be avoided if high-polluting countries act now to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

It's a clear and evocative narrative that dovetails neatly with fears and anger about irregular migration in many Global North countries. The only problem is it's riddled with inaccuracy and xenophobic bias - and it has also proven ineffective as a motivator for climate action. Even so, it seems to be increasingly accepted by many as a matter of fact.

"People don't make the distinction of understanding migrating to where, which is a very important question," says Amali Tower, the founder of the NGO Climate Refugees. "It doesn't even matter, because all they hear is, 'They're coming here', when they are not."

A more nuanced picture

From sea level rise and desertification to increased drought and more severe storms, the effects of the climate crisis are already real, menacing, and evermore apparent in day-to-day life. A report next week by the UN-convened Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is expected to give the most worrying assessment yet of these impacts.

It can be tempting to draw a direct line between the effects of climate change and the ever-growing number of displaced people around the world. But the relationship between climate change and displacement is, in reality, more complex. "It can be difficult to isolate people who are solely moving as a result of climate change," Joseph Kofi Teye, director of the Centre for Migration Studies at the University of Ghana, said in a recent interview with The New Humanitarian.

"Climate change has always been one of the drivers of migration, but it doesn't act alone," he explained. "It interacts with other social and economic factors... [and] it also interacts with political factors, such as conflicts."

"It has been over-dramatised, how [climate change] has been linked to international migration,"

There is also a general misconception about who actually migrates, according to Kees van der Geest, a researcher at the United Nations University's Institute for Environment and Human Security.

The assumption tends to be that people who cross borders are destitute, van der Geest explained. But international migration is expensive, and those who undertake long and arduous irregular journeys toward Europe and the United States tend to be from cities and to have resources, some level of education, and connections to diaspora communities in the countries they're trying to reach.

"It's typically the poorer segments of a population, the more rural inhabitants, that are mostly affected by the impacts of climate change on their livelihoods, and they usually lack the means to migrate," said van der Geest, adding that this could potentially change in the future as access to information and migration options evolve.

Read more → Immobility: The neglected flipside of the climate displacement crisis

For now, however, climate-influenced migration tends to be overwhelmingly rural to urban, and within - not between - countries. Even when climate migrants do cross borders, they tend to do so regionally, not from the Global South to the Global North. "It has been over-dramatised, how [climate change] has been linked to international migration," said Teye.

A different conversation?

The over-dramatised narrative about climate change and international migration was initially supposed to serve a purpose. Many of the historically high-polluting countries that need to drastically reduce emissions to prevent the worst impacts of climate change also happen to be Global North countries that are keen on keeping asylum seekers and migrants out. Because of this overlap, some researchers may have initially thought that studying the impacts of climate change on migration would contribute to greater concern and action on the topic, according to van der Geest.

The response, however, has not been what was hoped for.

"When people hear about millions, or tens of millions, or hundreds of millions of people being forced to flee their homes because of climate change, the reaction unfortunately is not that people would fight against the impacts of climate change, but that countries and continents - like Europe and the US - would just fortify their borders to [prevent] those people from coming in," van der Geest said. "We are now seeing that these numbers do not have that kind of positive impact on better climate policy, but rather [lead to] more strict migration policy."

The counterpoint to the over-dramatised narrative, according to Tower, should not be to de-emphasise climate migration, because it is still taking place, just mostly internally and regionally.

"Communities that emit less and bear the brunt of the impact of emissions and are likely to be uprooted."

Even though it's difficult to draw a direct line between climate change and people showing up en masse to the borders of Europe and the United States, high-polluting countries in the Global North still bear a historical and disproportionate responsibility for the very real impacts of climate change that are already making people's lives more precarious in hotspots around the world. "Your [emissions are] destabalising these countries, these regions. This is an unjust situation," Tower said.

"Our responsibility for emissions and our capacity to influence the reduction of emissions globally is very limited, but the consequences and the impact that climate change is having on our territories, on our social and ecosystem, is huge," said Adrián Martínez Blanco, director of the Costa Rican NGO La Ruta Del Cima.

But funding to help low-income countries mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change has been slow to materialise. In 2009, high-income countries pledged to provide $100 billion a year in financing to low-income countries for this purpose by 2020. But 2020 has come and gone, and high-income countries have yet to deliver on that promise. At COP26 last year, the United States and the EU also blocked the creation of a separate fund to address the growing costs of losses and damages incurred by countries in the Global South due to climate change.

Read more → What do rich countries owe the rest of the world?

"Those countries that are responsible for generating this crisis are doing everything they can to avoid dealing with this issue and to avoid responsibility," Martínez said. "That's basically the worst part of this."

For Faisal Garba, a sociology lecturer and migration expert at the University of Cape Town in South Africa, the question of how to address climate displacement and migration must begin with an understanding of global inequalities.

"Communities that emit less [and] bear the brunt of the impact of emissions and are likely to be uprooted - these are the people that are likely not even allowed to move in the first place," Garba said. "The climate crisis is not a standalone issue; it's a product of a long history of exploitation, of inequality, of accumulation."

According to van der Geest, instead of trying to limit the mobility of people displaced by the impacts of climate change, the focus should be on enabling those facing its worst fallout to have more choices about how to respond - including when it comes to migration.

"The more forced a migration movement is, the more likely it is that the effects are negative," he said. "The more [that] people have a choice in where they go, when they go, with whom they go... the more likely it is that the outcomes would be positive for themselves, for their relatives at home, and for the places they go to."
Edited by Andrew Gully.

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Why the conversation about climate change and migration needs to change

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BOSTON, United States If you haven't seen the projections, you've probably still absorbed the gist of them: At some point in the not-too-distant future an astronomical number of people will likely be displaced by climate change. Estimates range from 140 million to 1.2 billion by 2050.

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What if your country disappeared? Nation mulls digital existence as sea waters rise

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What if your country disappeared? Nation mulls digital existence as sea waters rise

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The article discusses possible solutions for a continuing existence of the island nation of Tuvalu, without its own territory.

- Seeking legal security for the continuing existence of the nation
- trying to reach an accord with the international community
- Idea of creating a digital nation --> Virtual recreation of Tuvalu in the metaverse
- legal framework to avert the entire population becoming stateless once all islands are submerged by water
- Buying land on the Fiji islands to create a climate refuge (Nation of Kiribati)
- Two people from Kiribati attempted to get refuge status in New Zealand and were rejected, as there was supposedly no legal basis for claiming refuge based on climate reasons

How can the disappearance of an entire culture be averted?

Maximilian Winkin

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Can you upload an entire country to the cloud? An island nation at risk from climate change is trying | CBC News

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If a country is swallowed up by the sea, does it cease to exist? Leaders are getting creative in how they try to preserve their nations if they become uninhabitable. Tuvalu is turning to the metaverse to try and preserve the pieces of the country that are the most important, before time runs out.

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Prepare for mass migration to cities in climate crisis, UK mayors warn

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Prepare for mass migration to cities in climate crisis, UK mayors warn

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The article argues that cities must be supported in preparing for an in increase in migration, due to the climate crisis.

-  Based on a report being commissioned by the mayor migration council, produced by researchers from NYU and Colombia and launched by the UN, they call for immediate action to be taken to address the causes and human costs of forced migration due to the climate crisis
- Cities are key to fighting the causes, as 50% of the world live in densely populated areas  and can contribute by supporting green economic paths
-migrants can aid green transition
-nevertheless investment needed to prepare infrastructure and services to prepare cities for climate related migration
-recommends to involve climate migrants in the green transition of cities.

What is the role of cities in mitigating the climate crisis and possible forced migration?

Maximilian Winkin

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Two of the UK's leading mayors are calling for urgent action to prepare for mass migration to cities due to the climate emergency, as a major report into the issue launches at the UN headquarters in New York on Wednesday.

Mass migration to some of the world's cities due to the climate emergency is already under way and the World Bank has estimated that unless significant action is taken, 216 million people could be on the move by 2050. In 2020, 30 million people were displaced due to the climate crisis, and 70% of people internally displaced due to the climate crisis are living in urban areas. The World Bank predicts that more than 1 billion people are at risk of being driven from their homes for climate-related reasons.

The report, launched during UN Migration Week, uses several countries in Latin America as case studies for what is happening to cities as a result of the climate emergency, and makes recommendations to ameliorate the gloomy projections about the impact of climate emergency-linked migration across the world.

The London mayor, Sadiq Khan, and the Bristol mayor, Marvin Rees, are key players in efforts to tackle climate emergency-related migration to their own and other cities due to climate change.

Khan is chair of C40 Cities, a global network of almost 100 world leading cities dedicated to combating the climate crisis and the devastating human cost of forced and unmanaged migration to cities caused by the climate crisis.

Rees is one of nine mayors around the world in the Global Mayors' Taskforce on Migration The taskforce includes mayors from Lima to Los Angeles, and from Barcelona to Bristol.

The report, which will be launched at the UN headquarters with president of the general assembly, Abdulla Shahid, and secretary general, António Guterres, has been produced by researchers at Columbia and New York City universities and has been commissioned by the Mayors Migration Council, working with the UN.

Khan told the Guardian: "Cities are leading the way in tackling the climate emergency. As chair of C40, one of my priorities is taking urgent action to address the causes and devastating human cost of forced migration created by the climate emergency.

"By tackling the climate crisis we can avoid the worst impacts of climate change while creating new growth and jobs opportunities in our cities. In London I am working towards doubling the size of London's green economy by 2030. All over the world, people are already being forced to move due to the climate crisis. Mayors are taking urgent action to address these issues, but we cannot do it alone. Cities need more funding and powers from national governments to urgently address the climate emergency at a local level."

Rees added: "Cities hold the key to tackling climate change, with over half the world's population living in densely populated urban areas. This percentage will grow as cities will also house the majority of those forced to migrate because of climate change in their home countries. It's therefore imperative that Bristol, alongside other cities in developed nations, show leadership in how to minimise the long-term need for climate displacement. At the same time we recognise that migrants are an asset to our cities and can aid our inclusive green transition by bringing diverse skills and experience."

He called for city mayors to push for the investment needed to futureproof services and infrastructure so that cities can be prepared for climate emergency-related migration in future years.

The report, Climate Migration in Mexican and Central American Cities, makes global recommendations for new projects in cities to tackle the climate emergency, which include migrants as part of the solution to greening economies and making them more sustainable. It also calls for city governments to become more involved in shaping policy on climate migration.

Early planning and local investment in cities could change the new migration from a crisis into an opportunity, says the report.

"Our hope is that this work highlights the clear and immediate urgency for driving national and international investment to city governments and local communities as first responders to climate migration," it adds.

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Prepare for mass migration to cities in climate crisis, UK mayors warn

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Two of the UK's leading mayors are calling for urgent action to prepare for mass migration to cities due to the climate emergency, as a major report into the issue launches at the UN headquarters in New York on Wednesday.

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Planned climate migration: how to stay ahead of sea level rise

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Planned climate migration: how to stay ahead of sea level rise

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Author: Martin Kübler (o4.07.22)
-Billions of individuals will have lost their homes to the climate crisis by the end of the century. Some regions are already seeking solutions for climate refugees.

- There are examples in the US were planned mobilization has been a strategy. But this is not an easy measure to realize, and bureaucratic efforts are huge. Also, it may increase present social inequalities and have a social and psychological toll.

-Other nations like Kiribati (islands) have a more extreme impact and may need to migrate abroad. This government has bought land in Fiji and is developing training programs with Australia and New Zealand, to provide their citizens with the skills needed to find work

- Another strategy is the renaturation of former residential areas to create a "natural buffer against future storms and flooding."

Question:
-> What examples can be found on how nations are seeking solutions to stay ahead of sea level rise and its consequent human mobilization?

(Laura Coral)

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Los holandeses son verdaderos expertos en enfrentarse al aumento del nivel del mar: durante décadas, han logrado ganarle metros y metros de tierra al mar, gracias a la ingeniosa construcción de diques. Pero, ¿bastan la innovación buena planificación de obras para domar las masas de agua?

La respuesta es: no. El nivel del mar va en aumento y las condiciones meteorológicas extremas, cada vez más frecuentes en las costas, provocan regularmente inundaciones en todo el mundo. Para algunos, la única solución es trasladarse y devolver la tierra a la naturaleza. Esta migración controlada de personas de zonas que se están volviendo inhabitables debido al cambio climático, se conoce como "reasentamiento inducido por el clima".

¿Cómo funciona la migración inducida por el clima?

La reubicación obligatoria consiste en que los habitantes abandonen permanentemente las zonas de riesgo. Esto puede hacerse de forma preventiva o directamente después de una catástrofe, como ocurrió en Nueva Orleans. En 2005, el huracán Katrina devastó grandes partes de esta ciudad estadounidense, ubicada en la desembocadura del Misisipi.

"El cambio climático afecta a personas en todo el mundo. Y todos buscan formas de afrontarlo de alguna manera", afirma la investigadora de catástrofes A.R. Siders, de la Universidad de Delaware, en un estudio publicado en junio del 2021. "Si la gente abandonara las zonas de riesgo conocidas, sería una protección eficaz. Pero esta posibilidad todavía no se considera a menudo", observa.

Algunos barrios de Nueva Orleans quedaron completamente abandonados tras las devastadoras inundaciones provocadas por el huracán Katrina.

En Nueva Orleans, se han puesto en marcha programas de reconstrucción para familias de bajos y medianos ingresos. Sus nuevas casas están ubicadas ahora a un poco más de altura y suficientemente alejadas de la zona de inundación.

Existen programas similares en todo Estados Unidos. El Programa de Subvenciones para la Mitigación de Riesgos de la Agencia Federal para el Manejo de Emergencias (FEMA, por sus siglas en inglés), por ejemplo, compró en 2017 más de 43.000 viviendas en zonas propensas a inundaciones, tanto en los propios Estados Unidos como en otros territorios bajo su jurisdicción.

Pero estos traslados no son fáciles. Por un lado, el esfuerzo burocrático es inmenso. Por otro, siempre existe el peligro de que las desigualdades sociales se agraven cuando comunidades establecidas son desplazadas.

"El despoblamiento ordenado de una zona no es un camino que pueda revertirse fácilmente", señalaba ya en 2017 Miyuki Hino, en un informe para Carbon Brief, una página web británica especializada en ciencia y política climática y energética. Según Hino, entonces estudiante de doctorado en la Universidad de Stanford, "el reasentamiento conlleva problemas sociales y psicológicos para los afectados; más aún si el antiguo hogar es un patrimonio cultural o un asentamiento familiar desde hace muchos años."

El agua sube en las costas de todos los continentes. En la isla Santa Elena, Carolina del Sur, EE. UU., estas lujosas casas de playa han tenido que se abandonadas.

Migración al extranjero, cuando todo el país está amenazado

Un caso aún más extremo es el de naciones como Kiribati, una república insular en el Pacífico central, justo por encima del nivel del mar, y uno de los países del mundo más amenazados por el aumento del nivel del mar. Algunas de sus islas ya son inhabitables.

Su Gobierno compró tierras en Fiji, en 2014, para que sus ciudadanos pudieran reasentarse allí. Sin embargo, recientemente anunció que les daría un uso agrícola, para alimentar a la población, en cooperación con China. Además, está desarrollando programas de capacitación con Australia y Nueva Zelanda, para proporcionar a sus ciudadanos las habilidades necesarias para encontrar trabajo, en caso de que se vean obligados a emigrar al extranjero.

Algunas de islas de Kiribati ya son inhabitables.

Renaturalización de antiguas zonas residenciales

El Gobierno del estado norteamericano de Nueva Jersey también está comprando terrenos para prevenir los peligros del cambio climático. En este caso, se trata de viviendas privadas en zonas de alto riesgo de tormentas e inundaciones. Estos terrenos se están convirtiendo en zonas recreativas y de conservación de la naturaleza. De este modo, servirán de "amortiguador natural contra futuras tormentas e inundaciones", explica el Ministerio de Medio Ambiente del Estado.

Bajo el nombre de Blue Acre, este programa de reasentamiento se inició en 1995. Y se amplió tras el devastador huracán Sandy en 2012. Desde entonces, se han demolido más de 700 viviendas en las llanuras de inundación de los ríos Delaware, Passaic y Raritan y sus afluentes.

Nueva Jersey bajo agua tras el huracán Ida en 2021.

"En Nueva Jersey, veremos más inundaciones en el futuro. Por eso, es lógico que sigamos adelante con nuestro programa Blue Acres", declaró en octubre el Comisario de Protección del Medio Ambiente de Nueva Jersey, Shawn M. LaTourette, a NJ Spotlight News. "La cuestión será: ¿Cuántas propiedades puede comprar el Estado, cuántas personas estarán dispuestas a vender y cuánto costará todo esto?"

Y los ejemplos alrededor del mundo crecen. A Jakarta, la capital de Indonesia, de 10 millones de habitantes, el Gobierno planea mudarla a la isla de Borneo, aunque aún no sabe bien cómo.

Pero, a pesar de los peligros cada vez mayores, muchas personas no quieren dejar sus viviendas. Es cierto que para la mayoría de los habitantes de las costas es una idea aterradora saber que el agua se acerca, explica a DW Hans-Ulrich Rösner, jefe de la oficina del Mar de Frisia, de la organización de conservación de la naturaleza WWF. Pero "solo se puede hacer si la gente está convencida de ello".

(ie/rml)

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Migración climática planificada: cómo adelantarse al aumento del nivel del mar | DW | 04.07.2022

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Los holandeses son verdaderos expertos en enfrentarse al aumento del nivel del mar: durante décadas, han logrado ganarle metros y metros de tierra al mar, gracias a la ingeniosa construcción de diques. Pero, ¿bastan la innovación buena planificación de obras para domar las masas de agua? La respuesta es: no.

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Europe's south offers a warm welcome to energy migrants

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Europe's south offers a warm welcome to energy migrants

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Why are some Europeans migrating South to Portugal, Spain and Greece and are they doing this permanently?

Is the huge energy crisis plaguing Europe an opportunity?

Julia Gershenzon

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MADRID/LISBON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Software developer Victor Varlamov logs in every morning to work on a sunny Spanish island off the coast of Africa after the prospect of steep heating bills and a winter made harsher by the Ukraine war drove him to leave his adoptive home in Poland.

He is not alone in pursuing a warmer, cheaper way of life as tourist boards across southern Europe have seized on the cost-of-living crisis to advertise the benefits of wintering abroad to those living in more northerly countries.

Varmalov, 50, together with his wife and teenage daughter, moved from Poland's Baltic coast to Gran Canaria in Spain's Canary Islands two months ago and plans to stay for the coming months.

"The economic crisis and mostly the war situation have pushed me here," said Varmalov, who is Russian by birth.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February drove some energy prices to record levels in August. They have eased, but are likely to stay high and have led to painful levels of inflation.

Before leaving Gdansk, where he has lived since 2016, Varmalov calculated he could save 250 euros ($259) on rent each month and pay 140 euros for all his utilities and internet, instead of the 200 euros he was paying for electricity alone in Poland.

What he now saves, he spends on eating out, he said, and also enjoys beach walks in his lunch breaks.

"The reality is better than my expectations," he said.

The regional government of the Canary Islands, where the average winter temperature is 20 degrees Celsius (68°F), launched a social media campaign in September to attract remote workers, such as Varmalov, and retired people from countries including Britain, Germany and Sweden.

"It is no secret this will be a winter of great economic uncertainty in Europe but in the Canary Islands, we want to turn the situation around," said Yaiza Castilla, the regional tourism chief, describing the islands as an "economic refuge".

Other southern European countries also see the potential.

The Greek tourism minister in September visited Austria and northern European countries, such as Sweden, to "turn this huge energy crisis plaguing Europe into an opportunity".

Portugal's tourism board has also campaigned and its head Luis Araujo said expectations for winter tourists from northern Europe were "very positive".

Tourism data supports his optimism.

Data collected for Reuters by home rental search engine HomeToGo showed that compared to last year, searches from countries such as Britain, Germany and the Netherlands rose 36%, 13% and 3% for winter accommodation in Spain, Greece and Portugal, respectively.

Gabriel Escarrer, CEO of Spanish hotel chain Melia, said people are booking apartments and suites for two or three months this winter in the Canary Islands, with a notable presence of Scandinavian visitors.

'REFUGE FOR WINTER' AND BEYOND

Visitors and more permanent residents are also arriving from Germany, which was highly dependent on Russian gas before the Ukraine war and is anxious about possible winter energy shortages.

Among schools enrolling more students from abroad, the German school in Gran Canaria received 40 applications from foreign students this year, which it said was higher than in previous years without giving precise figures.

Repeople, a co-working association in the Canary Islands, said it had been fully booked for November and 80% full for the rest of the winter.

Among those occupying a slot at Repeople is 31-year-old German freelancer Heiko Schaefer, who plans to stay until Christmas.

"The current rising prices is a reason for many people to move further south," he said. "This island is a refuge for the winter."

Airlines will increase by 31% the number of seats available to the Canary Islands, the regional tourism office said.

TUI fly, the leading airline operating between Germany and the Canary Islands, said it would increase flights by around 10%, adding in a statement energy costs were "a psychological element" in pushing more people south.

Airbnb, the short-term rentals firm, said searches for winter stays in southern Europe tripled between April and June.

STUCK AT HOME OR A PERMANENT MOVE

For the majority of northern Europeans, however, heading south is just a dream when the rise in living costs means they cannot afford the luxury of travel.

Instead they are stocking up on goods to keep themselves warm such as duvets, slow cookers and electric blankets, retail sales figures in Britain show.

Others though have decided to move permanently.

Natasha Caldeiras, from Kent, southern England, and her family are moving just before Christmas to her husband's native Portugal. They said energy prices were the spur.

Caldeiras believes the warmer weather will allow them to turn on the heaters for a shorter period than in Britain, where their monthly bills are around 200 pounds ($242) per month and set to rise.

"Even before the energy crisis, we would have liked to be in Portugal because of the weather," the 28-year-old said. "But with the energy crisis, (being in Portugal) gives us more security because of the climate."

Murat Coskun, chief executive of real estate advisory firm Get Properties, said the cost of living crisis was "fuelling the trend" of Britons deciding it was time to leave.

"I don't think we are at the peak yet," he said. "The winter is going to be tough."

($1 = 0.8270 pounds)

Reporting by Corina Pons in Madrid and Catarina Demony in Lisbon; additional reporting by Karolina Tagaris in Athens; editing by Barbara Lewis

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Catarina Demony

Thomson Reuters

Portugal-based multimedia correspondent reporting on politics, economics, the environment and daily news. Previous experience in local journalism in the UK., co-founded a project telling the stories of Portuguese-speakers living in London, and edited a youth-led news site.

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Europe's south offers a warm welcome to energy migrants

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MADRID/LISBON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Software developer Victor Varlamov logs in every morning to work on a sunny Spanish island off the coast of Africa after the prospect of steep heating bills and a winter made harsher by the Ukraine war drove him to leave his adoptive home in Poland.

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Flooding on the Fiji Islands: How do you move an entire country?

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Flooding on the Fiji Islands: How do you move an entire country?

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"Climate migration has begun - at least in the Pacific. In Fiji, 42 villages will have to be relocated in the next five to ten years because they will otherwise be under water. Six villages have already been relocated."
Fiji is unique for being the first country to have a tangible resettlement plan for which they were confronted by the questions of whether and when to leave, where to build, and who would pay.

This news piece tries to answer the question in the title relating to Fiji's specific situation as one of the first countries, according to the author, to face the immediate need for relocation due to CC.

Julia Gershenzon

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Die Klimamigration hat begonnen - zumindest im Pazifik. Und die Aufgabe ist gewaltig. Auf den Fidschi-Inseln werden in den nächsten fünf bis zehn Jahren 42 Dörfer umsiedeln müssen, weil sie sonst unter Wasser stehen. Sechs Dörfer sind bereits umgezogen.

Fidschi liegt im Südpazifik, 1.800 Meilen östlich von Australien, hat mehr als 300 Inseln und eine Bevölkerung von knapp einer Million. Im Südwestpazifik steigen die Oberflächentemperaturen dreimal so schnell wie im globalen Durchschnitt. Schwere Wirbelstürme suchen die Region regelmäßig heim. Im Jahr 2016 traf der Zyklon Winston auf Fidschi, er tötete 44 Menschen und verursachte Schäden in Höhe von 1,4 Milliarden US-Dollar, das entspricht einem Drittel des Bruttoinlandsprodukts des Inselstaats. Seitdem trafen Fidschi sechs weitere Zyklone. Fünf der 15 Länder, die am stärksten durch wetterbedingte Ereignisse gefährdet sind, liegen im Pazifik. Fidschi liegt auf Platz 14.

Nun hat eine Arbeitsgruppe der Regierung den ersten tief greifenden Umsiedlungsplan vorgelegt: die „Standardarbeitsanweisungen für geplante Umsiedlungen", SOP. Denn die Umsiedlung eines Dorfes ist eine komplexe Aufgabe. „Wir versuchen immer wieder, dies zu erklären", sagte Satyendra Prasad, Fidschis Botschafter bei der UNO. „Es ist nicht damit getan, 30 oder 40 Häuser in einem Dorf abzureißen und sie weiter nach oben zu verlegen. Ich wünschte, es wäre so einfach." Schulen, Gesundheitszentren, Straßen, Strom, Wasser, Infrastruktur, die Dorfkirche: Sie alle müssen mit den Häusern umgesiedelt werden. „Und selbst wenn Sie das schaffen sollten, müssen Sie noch die Gräber der Menschen verlegen. Versuchen Sie das mal."

Kein anderes Land sei in der Planung so weit wie Fidschi, sagt Erica Bower, die als Expertin für Umsiedlungen mit der UNO und der fidschianischen Regierung zusammenarbeitet. „Das sind Fragen, die sich viele Regierungen auf der ganzen Welt in den nächsten zehn, 20, 50 Jahren stellen werden." Wie also siedelt man ein Land um?

1. Die erste Umsiedlung: Eine (Teil-)Erfolgsgeschichte

Vunidogoloa heißt das erste Dorf, das in Fidschi umgesiedelt wurde: ein Dorf mit etwa 140 Einwohnern auf Vanua Levu, der zweitgrößten Insel des Landes. 2014, zum Zeitpunkt des großen Umzugs, war der heute 62-jährige Sailosi Ramatu Dorfvorsteher. Hier wurde er geboren, hier, so, dachte er, würde er sterben. Jetzt ist sein altes Dorf eine Geisterstadt. Etwa 20 verlassene Häuser stehen noch, der Wind pfeift durch die offenen Türen und die zerbrochenen Jalousien. Die Dächer sind eingestürzt, die Dielen fehlen, alles ist überwuchert. Was einst eine grüne Lichtung war, auf der man sich zum Essen und Trinken traf, ist heute ein Sumpf.

Der Umzug war die letzte Option. Das Dorf hatte sich angepasst, bis es sich nicht mehr anpassen konnte. Unten am Sandstrand des alten Dorfes zeigt mir Ramatu Betonblöcke, die aus dem Sand ragen: die Fundamente seines alten Hauses. Als das Wasser immer weiter vorrückte, hatte seine Familie das Haus erst nach hinten, dann wieder nach vorne verlegt. Er zeigt auf die Überreste einer Mauer, wenige Meter vor der Küste. Es war die zweite, die für das Dorf gebaut wurde, nachdem Wellen und Stürme die erste zerstört hatten. Auch sie war unbrauchbar geworden.

Besonders schmerzhaft war es, die Toten zurückzulassen. „Unsere Großeltern, unsere Eltern, wir ließen alles zurück. Als wir an diesem Tag umzogen, war es, als würden wir als Fremde in ein fremdes Land ziehen. Die Leute packten ihre Koffer, sie wurden auf einen Lastwagen verladen. Sie weinten, bevor sie ihr Haus verließen, denn das war das letzte Mal."

Das neue Vunidogoloa besteht aus 30 blassgrünen Häusern, verteilt über einen tiefgrünen Hügel. Im Haus von Sera Naidrua sind die Wände mit bunten Stoffbahnen ausgekleidet, durch die offenen Fenster und Türen weht eine kühle Brise. Naidrua, 74 Jahre alt, schenkt kalten Tee in Plastikbecher und erinnert sich daran, wie sie als Kind die Früchte des Dilo-Baums an der Küste des alten Dorfs pflückte, zum Murmelspielen. Aber, erzählt Naidrua, „wir hatten wegen der Wirbelstürme und der Überflutung des Dorfes durch die Wellen Angst um unser Leben. Hier fühlen wir uns sicherer".

Für eine Umsiedlung braucht eine Gemeinde vor allem zwei Dinge: Land und Holz. Zumindest in dieser Hinsicht hatte Vunidogoloa Glück. Die Dorfbewohner besaßen bereits Land innerhalb der Clan-Grenze, und auch Wald, der Holz für die Häuser liefern konnte. Während die fidschianische Regierung einen großen Teil der Umsiedlung finanzierte und die Internationale Arbeitsorganisation einen Teil der Mittel für die Bezahlung der Bauarbeiter bereitstellte, steuerte das Dorf einen Großteil des Materials bei.

Dennoch wurden auch Fehler gemacht. „Einer der auffälligsten Punkte ist, dass man vergessen hat, Küchen einzubauen", sagte Makereta Waqavonovono von Climate Tok, einer Organisation, die mit ländlichen Gemeinden Aufklärungsarbeit zur Klimakrise leistet. Der ursprüngliche Plan der Regierung sah eine Außenküche für jedes Haus vor, die in einer zweiten Bauphase errichtet werden sollte, was jedoch nie geschah. Schließlich bauten die Dorfbewohner ihre eigenen Küchen. Fehlten hier schlicht die Mittel? Makereta Waqavonovono erklärt es sich anders: „Es bedeutet, dass Frauen nicht beteiligt waren."

Dafür verfügen die neuen Häuser über Klärgruben, Solarzellen und Toiletten mit Wasserspülung. Der Anbau von Lebensmitteln ist hier viel einfacher, da der Boden nicht sumpfig und versalzen ist. Der neue Standort Vunidogoloas liegt in der Nähe einer Straße, die eine bessere Anbindung an größere Städte ermöglicht, um medizinische Versorgung und Schulbildung zu erhalten. Aber das leichtere Reisen hat auch dazu geführt, dass Alkohol in dem zuvor trockenen Dorf Einzug hielt, was Simione Botu, der derzeitige Dorfvorsteher, als „kriminelles Verhalten" bezeichnet. Außerdem liegt der neue Standort im Landesinneren, was den Fischfang erschwert. Viele Bewohner, so Naidrua, gehen zum Fischen noch zwei- oder dreimal pro Woche zum alten Dorf hinunter.

2. Ein Plan muss her

Wenn das Land „iTaukei" ist, also in indigenem Besitz, geht der Antrag auf Umsiedlung an den Bezirksbeirat; ist das Land nicht in indigenem Besitz, geht der Antrag an das Ministerium für Wohnungsbau und kommunale Entwicklung; wenn die Gemeinde als erdbeben- oder erdrutschgefährdet eingestuft wird, sollte die Risikobewertung des Landes von der Abteilung für Bodenschätze durchgeführt werden; handelt es sich um das Risiko von Wirbelstürmen, wird dies vom Meteorologischen Amt der Fidschi-Inseln vorgenommen. Der komplexe nationale Umsiedlungsplan in Fidschi besteht aus zahlreichen Diagrammen, die die erforderlichen Schritte für eine Umsiedlung aufzeigen - je nach Ausgangslage. Dabei wird der SOP ständig angepasst, seine Verfasser bezeichnen ihn als „lebendes Dokument".

„Außenstehende können leicht sagen, dass in jede Entscheidung eine Frau mit einbezogen werden sollte", sagte Christine Fung von der GIZ. „Und dann läuft der Prozess, die Frauen sagen in den Sitzungen ‚Ja', aber wenn man genauer nachhakt, ist das manchmal nicht wirklich die Stimme der Frauen: Kulturell bedingt überlassen die meisten Frauen den Männern das Wort." Man habe dann versucht, Frauen gezielt und separat zu einer möglichen Umsiedlung zu konsultieren. Nun müssen nicht nur 90 Prozent aller Dorfbewohner, sondern auch 90 Prozent der Frauen, 90 Prozent der Männer, 90 Prozent der Älteren, 90 Prozent der Jüngeren, 90 Prozent der LGBTQ-Bewohner und 90 Prozent der Menschen mit Behinderung ihre Zustimmung geben, bevor Gespräche mit der Regierung über eine Umsiedlung beginnen können. Bisher hing die Entscheidung darüber, ob ein Dorf für eine Umsiedlung infrage kam - und der letztendliche Erfolg einer Umsiedlung - in hohem Maße vom Einfluss der Dorfvorsteher ab.

Aber selbst wenn sich alle inklusive der Behörden einig sind, dass eine Umsiedlung unumgänglich ist, braucht es noch Geld - und Land.

3. Ein Dorf in der Schwebe: Umzugsbereit - aber wohin?

Für die Einwohner von Nabavatu war das Problem das Land. Bis zum letzten Jahr hatte dort niemand eine Umsiedlung in Betracht gezogen. Das Dorf, das auf einem Hügel auf der Insel Vanua Levu mit Blick auf den mächtigen Dreketi-Fluss liegt, hatte den schleichenden Anstieg des Meeresspiegels und die allmähliche Vergiftung des Bodens noch nicht erlebt. Dann, im Januar 2021, wurde es vom Zyklon Ana getroffen. „Es war mein erster Zyklon", sagt Eseroma Lava, 66, der stellvertretende Dorfvorsteher. „Ich hatte an diesem Tag wirklich Angst."

Achtzehn Monate nach dem Wirbelsturm war das alte Dorf immer noch ein Schauplatz der Zerstörung. Das Gemeindehaus war völlig kaputt, die Decke eingestürzt, die Kirche mit tiefen Rissen vom Fundament bis zum Dach. Die Vermessungsingenieure der Regierung erklärten den Boden für zu instabil. Die Bewohner mussten das Dorf verlassen, für immer.

Die fast 400 Menschen leben seit über einem Jahr in Katastrophenzelten auf dem Gelände einer Kirche. Kleine Solarbatterien sorgen für Strom - solange die Sonne scheint. Um nach Einbruch der Dunkelheit weiter zu lesen oder Schularbeiten zu erledigen, nutzen die Kinder die Taschenlampen ihrer Telefone, sofern sie welche haben. Die Wasserversorgung ist lückenhaft, und es gibt nicht genügend Toiletten. „Alle 38 Zelte hier benutzen die Kirchentoilette - drei für die Frauen, drei für die Männer", sagt Lava seufzend.

Die Sonne geht unter, und Lavas Tochter Laisana Bilosiliva badet ihr Kind in der Betonspüle der behelfsmäßigen Küche vor ihrem Zelt, in dem sieben Erwachsene und sechs Kinder leben. Die Privatsphäre ist ein Problem, aber die größte Herausforderung sei die Hitze, so Bilosiliva. Tagsüber ist es in den Zelten zu heiß für die Kinder, deshalb verbringt sie einen Großteil des Tages mit ihrer Tochter draußen im Schatten eines Mangobaums. Nachts ist es in den Zelten jedoch eiskalt.

Dass Nabavatu umgesiedelt werden muss, bestritt niemand. Das Problem war, dass es innerhalb seiner Clangrenzen kein geeignetes Land gab. Doch nach anderthalb Jahre erzielten das Dorf und die Regierung eine Einigung über ein fünf Hektar großes staatliches Grundstück in der Nähe. „Nabavatu-Umsiedlung, gesponsert von der fidschianischen Regierung in Absprache mit dem Nabavatu Trust. Ein Projekt zum Klimawandel", steht auf einem Schild.

Das Land ist nun sicher. Doch die Abholzung für die neuen Häuser hat noch nicht begonnen. Und sie wird etwa 18 Monate dauern.

4. Die „Tukuraki-Erfahrung": Wie es schiefgehen kann

Die Frage nach Land stellt sich für jedes der 42 Dörfer auf der Liste der dringlichen Umsiedlung. Indigenes Land kann in Fidschi weder gekauft noch verkauft werden, aber ein Clan kann mit einem anderen eine Vereinbarung treffen, die ihm erlaubt, ein Stück Land für ein neues Dorf zu nutzen. „Es wird kein Geld erwartet", sagt eine am Umsiedlungsprozess Beteiligte, die anonym bleiben möchte. „In unserer Kultur ist das nicht etwas, das wir - das wäre ..." Sie beginnt über die Absurdität zu lachen. „Man gibt es einer Familie oder einem Dorf, damit sie es bewohnen, weil sie in Not sind. Es wird sogar als Ansporn gesehen, dass man das tut, um die Beziehungen zu den benachbarten Clans zu stärken."

Aber das Fehlen einer finanziellen Vereinbarung kann die Dinge manchmal komplizierter machen. 2017 wurde Tukuraki, ein Dorf im Hochland der Hauptinsel Viti Levu, nach einer Reihe von Katastrophen auf das Land eines benachbarten Clans umgesiedelt. Fünf Jahre zuvor erlebte Tukuraki einen Erdrutsch, eine Familie kam dabei ums Leben. Später im selben Jahr traf der Zyklon Evan das Dorf, beschädigte die provisorischen Häuser, zerstörte die Infrastruktur und vernichtete die Ernte. Im Februar 2016 dann kam Zyklon Winston, der schlimmste in der Geschichte Fidschis. Die Dorfbewohner mussten in Höhlen Zuflucht suchen - ein neues Dorf wurde aufgebaut.

Doch es kam zu Konflikten zwischen den umgesiedelten Bewohnern von Tukuraki und Mitgliedern des Clans, auf dessen Land sie nun leben. Letztere waren unzufrieden, als sie feststellten, dass die Häuser, die für das neue Dorf gebaut worden waren - mit Küchen, Toiletten und Bädern -, besser waren als die ihren und dass ein Fischteich, ein Geflügelstall und Bienenstöcke gebaut worden waren, damit die neuen Einwohner ein Einkommen erzielen konnten.

Die „Tukuraki-Erfahrung" hat zu einem neuen Passus im nationalen Umsiedlungsplan geführt: Die Entwicklung der Gastgemeinde muss mitberücksichtigt werden, wenn eine neue Gemeinde diese Entwicklung erhält.

5. Und wer bezahlt's?

Ist die Landfrage geklärt, bleibt die der Finanzierung. Der Prozess ist teuer, und weder die fidschianische Regierung noch die umzusiedelnden Dörfer haben das Geld, um die Rechnung zu bezahlen. Das BIP der Fidschi-Inseln lag 2021 bei 4,59 Milliarden Dollar, ein Rückgang von fast 20 Prozent gegenüber 2019, nachdem Covid die Tourismusindustrie über Nacht zum Erliegen gebracht hatte.

Die internationalen Gelder reichen nicht aus. „Wenn man sich die Höhe der Mittel ansieht, die für die Anpassung an den Klimawandel zur Verfügung gestellt werden", so Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, Minister für Klimawandel auf den Fidschi-Inseln, „dann ist die Zuweisung für den Pazifik nur ein Bruchteil eines Bruchteils davon".

2019 richtete Fidschi den weltweit ersten Treuhandfonds für Umsiedlung ein. Die Anschubfinanzierung stammt aus der staatlichen Klimaanpassungsabgabe, aus Tourismus-Steuern sowie aus Steuern auf hohe Einkommen über 117.000 US-Dollar. Im Februar 2020 spendete Neuseeland als erster internationaler Partner direkt in den Treuhandfonds und steuerte 1,25 Mio. US-Dollar bei. Das Geld im Staatstopf reicht jedoch längst nicht für die Umsiedlung aller betroffenen Gemeinden.

6. Gehen oder bleiben?

Wenn ein Dorf umgesiedelt werden soll, kommen also Berater, Vermessungsingenieure, Regierungsbeamte, Geldgeber - und es kommen: Theologen. „Die Menschen im Pazifik sind immer noch zutiefst spirituell und tief mit dem Land verbunden", sagt Netani Rika von der Pazifischen Kirchenkonferenz (PCC), die Kirchen verschiedener christlicher Konfessionen im gesamten Pazifik verbindet. „Es ist das Land, das Gott euren Vorvätern gegeben hat und das eure Vorväter euch gegeben haben, und wenn ihr jetzt wegzieht, ist das fast ein Zeichen, dass ihr euch eurer Verantwortung entzieht. Manchmal reicht es aus, wenn der Priester, der Pfarrer oder der Pastor sagt: Seht her, ob ihr nun hier seid oder oben auf dem Berg, Gott ist immer noch bei euch. Gott ist überall. Gott war von Anfang an bei dir und wird dich auch auf dieser Reise begleiten. Fühlt euch frei, zu gehen."

Für viele Pazifikbewohner sind die Grabstätten nach wie vor das größte Hindernis bei der Umsiedlung. Dorfbewohner stehen vor der Wahl, entweder die Gebeine ihrer Vorfahren zurückzulassen oder sie zu exhumieren und an den neuen Ort zu bringen. Beide Entscheidungen sind zutiefst traumatisch.

In einer winzigen Siedlung mit einem halben Dutzend Häusern namens Togoru steht der Friedhof bereits unter Wasser. Bei Flut schwimmen Fische um die Grabsteine der Vorfahren von Lavenia McGoon, aber die 70-Jährige will bleiben. Als ich zu Besuch komme, hat McGoon Besuch aus Australien. Ein Boot voller Kinder bricht gerade zu einem Ausflug auf, ein Kleinkind schläft in einer Hängematte zwischen Palmen. „Es ist herrlich, das werden Sie merken. Es ist so schön, so friedlich", sagte sie. „Ich lebe hier mit meinen Enkelkindern. Mein Mann ist 2013 verstorben. Mir geht es gut, ich bin glücklich. Wenn ich Fisch essen will, stelle ich mich einfach hierhin, werfe meine Angel aus und fange meinen Fisch. Wir verkaufen Kokosnüsse und andere Dinge, und das ist genug."

Die Szene ist idyllisch - bis man zum Ufer kommt, etwa 30 Meter von der Stelle entfernt, an der die Straße am Eingang der Siedlung endet. Hier führt McGoon einen verzweifelten Eine-Frau-Krieg gegen das Meer. Sie hat den Strand mit alten, mit Steinen gefüllten Autoreifen bestückt, damit die Wellen bei Flut nicht mit solcher Wucht auf das Land prallen.

Togoru verliert jedes Jahr 1,5 Meter an Land. Aber in den ersten sechs Monaten des Jahres 2022, so McGoon, habe man bereits fünf Meter verloren. Nicht nur wegen der Erderwärmung. Auch die Aufstauung eines nahe gelegenen Flusses für den Reisanbau in der Region habe eine Rolle gespielt. „Wenn man gegen die Natur vorgeht, wird genau das passieren. Und wenn der Ozean erst einmal wütend wird, war's das."

Togoru ist nicht für eine Verlegung vorgesehen - es steht nicht auf der Liste der 42 Orte. Die Regierung hat die Gemeinde wiederholt auf die Möglichkeit einer Umsiedlung angesprochen, aber die Bewohner haben betont, dass sie nicht umziehen wollen.

Die Regierung hat McGoon einen weiteren Schutzwall versprochen, nachdem der erste von den Wellen zerstört worden war. Sie will bleiben, bis sie stirbt. „Ich bin zu alt, um noch einmal von vorne anzufangen." Wenn sie nicht mehr da ist, sieht sie keine Zukunft für Togoru. „Ich sage meinen Enkeln: Versucht, es besser zu machen. Geht zur Schule, erreicht eure Ziele, arbeitet, verdient Geld und haut ab nach Übersee, das ist alles. Denn, wissen Sie, wir sehen schon, was wirklich los ist."

Kate Lyons berichtet als Redakteurin des Guardian in Australien über den Pazifikraum

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Überflutungen der Fidschi-Inseln: Wie zieht man ein ganzes Land um?

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Die Klimamigration hat begonnen - zumindest im Pazifik. Und die Aufgabe ist gewaltig. Auf den Fidschi-Inseln werden in den nächsten fünf bis zehn Jahren 42 Dörfer umsiedeln müssen, weil sie sonst unter Wasser stehen. Sechs Dörfer sind bereits umgezogen. Fidschi liegt im Südpazifik, 1.800 Meilen östlich von Australien, hat mehr als 300 Inseln und eine Bevölkerung von knapp einer Million.

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Landslide kills 14 people attending funeral in Cameroon

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Landslide kills 14 people attending funeral in Cameroon

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Question answered: When/who/where/what of the incident, cause: heavy rains
Not answered: Is CC to blame? Are events like these a cause for migration?

Julia Gershenzon

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The landslide happened after an embankment gave way as people were gathering on a football pitch below [Amindeh Blaise Atabong/ Reuters]

A landslide during a funeral ceremony in Cameroon's capital has killed at least 14 people, the regional governor said, as rescuers continued the search for dozens of others who remain missing.

The disaster occurred on Sunday as people gathered on a football pitch at the base of a 20-metre-high soil embankment in Yaounde.

Witnesses told the Reuters news agency that the embankment collapsed on top of dozens of people.

"At the scene we counted 10 bodies, but before our arrival four bodies already had been taken away," said Paul Bea, the governor of the Centre region that includes Yaounde.

"There are also a dozen serious cases dispersed in hospitals," he said.

The governor described the area where the landslide took place as a "very dangerous spot" and encouraged people to stay away from the Damas district in Yaounde's eastern outskirts.

Among those who survived was 50-year-old Marie Claire Mendouga.

"We had just started to dance when the ground collapsed," she told the AFP news agency.

She said she "went to dig with my hands" to try to get people out from under the earth and was still covered in the brown clay from the site.

Landslides occur relatively frequently in Cameroon but are rarely as deadly as Sunday's incident in Yaounde.

Forty-three people were killed in the western city of Bafoussam in 2019 when a landslide triggered by heavy rains swept away a dozen precarious dwellings built on the side of a hill.

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Landslide kills 14 people attending a funeral in Cameroon

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A landslide during a funeral ceremony in Cameroon's capital has killed at least 14 people, the regional governor said, as rescuers continued the search for dozens of others who remain missing. The disaster occurred on Sunday as people gathered on a football pitch at the base of a 20-metre-high soil embankment in Yaounde.

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Indigenous people, women and young people are suffering the most, according to migration expert 

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Indigenous people, women and young people are suffering the most, according to migration expert 

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https://www.derstandard.de/story/2000136758517/migrationsexperte-hurtado-indigene-frauen-und-junge-menschen-leiden-am-staerksten

- Key topic: climate injustice with a particular focus on Guatemala

- Head of the initiative "Asociación Pop No'j" is interviewed about the consequences of climate change, factors that worsen issues related to climate change & climate migration.

Questions:
What are the consequences of climate change in Guatemala?

How do the consequences of climate change affect indigenous people in Guatemala ?

Lena Linortner

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Klima-Ungerechtigkeit

Der Klimawandel trifft Guatemala und die indigene Maya-Bevölkerung besonders hart, sagt Sozialwissenschafter Juan José Hurtado. Er kämpft für Klimagerechtigkeit

Foto: AP/Rodrigo Abd

Guatemala leidet in nahezu beispielloser Weise unter den Folgen des Klimawandels. Es zählt zu jenen Nationen, welche die Konsequenzen der globalen Erwärmung am stärksten zu spüren bekommen. Zur Verschärfung der Lage trägt die fortschreitende Zerstörung der Natur bei, die durch ein auf schnelles Wachstum ausgelegtes Wirtschaftssystem befeuert wird. Wie soziale Ungleichheiten dadurch noch weiter wachsen, zeigt die Klimastudie "Beyond Panic" des Vereins Südwind, in der auch das Beispiel des mittelamerikanischen Staates behandelt wird.

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Migrationsexperte Hurtado: "Indigene, Frauen und junge Menschen leiden am stärksten"

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Der Klimawandel trifft Guatemala und die indigene Maya-Bevölkerung besonders hart, sagt Sozialwissenschafter Juan José Hurtado. Er kämpft für Klimagerechtigkeit Guatemala leidet in nahezu beispielloser Weise unter den Folgen des Klimawandels. Es zählt zu jenen Nationen, welche die Konsequenzen der globalen Erwärmung am stärksten zu spüren bekommen.

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Canada doesn’t appear to have a plan to welcome climate migrants

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Canada doesn’t appear to have a plan to welcome climate migrants

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- Do 'developed' countries recognize liability for climate induced displacement of people in 'developing' countries?
- What obstacle the legal definition of climate refugee poses for migrants looking for it?
- What complementary actions to financial compensation should 'developed' countries advance to address climate migration?

Siwar Ortiz Guzman

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Canada doesn't appear to have a plan to welcome climate migrants | Ricochet

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Growing up in Ghana, Jamima Baada watched her community, including members of her own family, migrate from one region to another less impacted by climate change. Now she teaches climate change and human migration at the University of British Columbia.

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"Its about real people, not just numbers"  

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"Its about real people, not just numbers"  

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https://www.diepresse.com/6187856/sarah-l-nash-es-geht-um-menschen-nicht-um-zahlen

Author: Cornelia Grobner
Published: 13.09.2022

- The article discusses the challenges climate change and climate migration poses. The author also talks about the fact that climate refugees are already normalised and it doesn't shock people anymore that people have to flee because of the adverse effects of climate change.

Question:

Which country is used as an example by the author concerning recent events leading to people fleeing their homes?

What is criticised by the author?

Lena Linortner

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Klimawandel und Umweltmigration bringen neue Herausforderungen für die Menschenrechte. Ihnen ist die Politologin Sarah L. Nash auf der Spur.

Die Bilder aus Pakistan sind apokalyptisch. Starke Monsunregenfälle haben zuletzt für großflächige Überschwemmungen gesorgt. Laut Angaben der Regierung sind mehr als 33 Millionen Einwohnerinnen und Einwohner, 15 Prozent der Gesamtbevölkerung, betroffen, viele davon haben ihr Zuhause verloren. Die dramatischen Ereignisse gliedern sich ein in eine Reihe von Klimawandelfolgen, die die Heimat von vielen Menschen - vorübergehend oder dauerhaft - unbewohnbar macht. Sie werden zu „Klimaflüchtlingen". Betroffen von den Fluten und Dürren sind neben Süd- und Südostasien besonders Lateinamerika sowie große Teile des afrikanischen Kontinents.

Abenteuerliche Prognosen

„Es ist normal geworden zu sagen, dass der Klimawandel zu Massenfluchtbewegungen führt. Das halte ich für gefährlich", sagt die Politikwissenschaftlerin Sarah L. Nash von der Donau Uni Krems (davor: Boku Wien). Sie forscht seit knapp zehn Jahren zu internationaler Klimadiplomatie und innenpolitischen Maßnahmen rund um Klima und Migration, seit 2020 gefördert durch das Marie-Skłodowska-Curie-Programm der EU. Nash kritisiert vor allem die regelmäßig prognostizierten Zahlen zum künftigen Ausmaß der Migrationsbewegungen: „Diese Zahlen, wie sie seit den 1990er-Jahren immer wieder veröffentlicht werden, sind wirklich mit Vorsicht zu genießen." Alarmierend sind sie allemal: So soll es bis zum Jahr 2050 je nach Quelle zwischen 140 Millionen und zwei Milliarden Umwelt- und Klimaflüchtlinge geben.

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Sarah L. Nash: „Es geht um Menschen, nicht um Zahlen"

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Klimawandel und Umweltmigration bringen neue Herausforderungen für die Menschenrechte. Ihnen ist die Politologin Sarah L. Nash auf der Spur. Die Bilder aus Pakistan sind apokalyptisch. Starke Monsunregenfälle haben zuletzt für großflächige Überschwemmungen gesorgt. Laut Angaben der Regierung sind mehr als 33 Millionen Einwohnerinnen und Einwohner, 15 Prozent der Gesamtbevölkerung, betroffen, viele davon haben ihr Zuhause verloren.

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How to move a country: Fiji's radical plan to escape rising sea levels

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How to move a country: Fiji's radical plan to escape rising sea levels

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This article tells the story of communities in Fiji, which have had to relocate due to the consequences of climate change. It outlines the government's relocation plans generally but mostly focuses on the specific consequences for the communities affected. I belive the article attempts to answer the following questions:

How could a country that is threatened by the sea level rise find a relocation solution for whole communities?
-Is this feasible for other countries as well?

-Why do they need to relocate?

-What are the challenges?

-Why didn’t the communities adapt instead?

-How do the relocated persons feel about this?

-Who is actually involved in the relocation

-What are mistakes to learn from?
-Where do these mistakes come from?

-What are the specific difficulties for the villagers after relocation?

(Olivia)

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‘Climate migration is rising — but ‘home’ remains very dear to the displaced'

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‘Climate migration is rising — but ‘home’ remains very dear to the displaced'

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This piece answers the questions:
- Which factors cause climate migration?
- Which parts of the world are facing the most environmental stress, causing displacement?
- How do social inequalities shape migration?

Siwar Ortiz Guzman

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Elizabeth Fussell teaches population studies at Brown University. Speaking to Srijana Mitra Das at Times Evoke, she outlines key trends in climate-driven migration:

What is the core of your research?

In 2005, I began examining the impacts of Hurricane Katrina on the population of New Orleans, looking at all the ways this caused people to move from their homes temporarily or permanently. I then began looking more broadly at the effects of weather events on population mobility.

Which factors cause climate migration?
Let's look at the primary drivers of migration itself first - in the US, the main reason people move is because of an event in their lives, like getting married, having children or retiring. These cause a change in the need for, size and cost of housing. The environment comes to play a role in two ways - first, people often want to move to a more pleasant climate. Second, people move because of environmental disamenities like heatwaves and floods which cost too much to correct or cause a decline in livelihoods.

More drastically, extreme weather events like hurricanes can destroy homes, forcing people to move. What we hadn't seen much of in world history until now is the anticipatory migration taking place today, with people looking into the future and saying, 'In anticipation of sea level rise or high temperatures, I'll move away while I still have choices'. People will increasingly incorporate a climate change-informed future into their mobility decisions. We will also see more disaster-driven migration within countries - growing numbers of internally displaced people (IDPs) will need both short and long-term accommodation. There could also be more involvement by governments in pre-locating people away from hazardous places. Finally, international migration will also grow as people fore see the places they live in becoming increasingly dangerous, like areas with very low elevation.

GROUND REALITIES: Global warming is pushing a prolonged drought in Somalia. As sandstorms and locust infestations cause repeated crop failures, millions are being forced to migrate, many reaching makeshift camps where food and water insecurity is a massive concern. Picture source: iStock

Which parts of the world are facing the most environmental stress, causing displacement?

These would include 'hot spots' or places most threatened by specific hazards now. Locations threatened by sea level rise are being studied - these include islands in the South Pacific, parts of Bangladesh and many deltaic regions of the world where land subsidence and sea level rise are occurring together, impacting the salinity of the soil, affecting agriculture, etc. Migration will grow in such areas. If there are limited choices in moving internally - which an island nation could face - this will propel international migration. In terms of where these people could go, places in the South Pacific or the Caribbean, for instance, have relation ships with mainland countries, either as former colonial powers or through pacts like trade agreements. It is likely that people displaced from such areas could follow these relationships - it could be easier to get a visa or citizenship and integrate socially in such a context. We need more data collection infrastructure to systematically evaluate these dynamics.

NOT JUST PARADISE ISLAND: From the South Pacific to the Caribbean, small island states face an existential threat now with increasing atmospheric warming caused by emissions driving ice melt and rising sea levels - over 190 million people live in areas estimated to come below high tide lines by 2100, with 70% in Asia. Picture source: iStock

How do social inequalities shape migration?

Disasters tend to exacerbate pre-disaster inequalities - when an event affects a place, people who are more advantaged with socio-economic resources, networks that can help them move out of harm's way and insurance against property losses tend to do the best. They suffer the least impacts on their lives and recover faster. People with fewer resources are less likely to have insurance to reimburse their losses. The few resources they do have vanish and they are more likely to find themselves in dire circumstances, reach ing shelters or camps. These places are designed to keep people alive, fed and hope fully healthy but they're not a long-term solution to return to a normal life. Such experiences therefore deepen existing socio-economic disparities.

Is environmental migration reshaping people's sense of home now?

Across diverse contexts, people are very attached to their land, communities and residences - when these are threatened by climate change, we often see that attachment becoming more salient. People are growing aware of what could be lost - and their bond to a place is increasing. In the US, there is an island in Louisiana where an indigenous American tribe has lived for many years. But the land here has been shrinking due to sea level rise. So, the community had to relocate through a negotiated plan with the federal government. However, as part of that negotiation, they maintained their rights and ties to the land they left behind. Their sense of belonging didn't change - the island remained home. We see the same in Kiribati where people are also facing sea level rise. The island communities are experiencing two conversations simultaneously, recognising that migration might become inevitable and being determined to stay on. In both cases, the loss of home is being navigated with very different strategies - but the attachment to the place itself remains very strong.

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'Climate migration is rising - but 'home' remains very dear to the displaced' - Times of India

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Elizabeth Fussell teaches population studies at Brown University. Speaking to Srijana Mitra Das at Times Evoke, she outlines key trends in climate-driven migration: What is the core of your research? In 2005, I began examining the impacts of Hurricane Katrina on the population of New Orleans, looking at all the ways this caused people to move from their homes temporarily or permanently.

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How Climate Change is forcing Kenyan women to leave their homes behind

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How Climate Change is forcing Kenyan women to leave their homes behind

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This article tells the story of several Kenyan women, forced to migrate due to the effects of severe droughts exacerbated through climate change. The article focuses on the fates of the women especially who are affected especially by the consequences of climate change. I believe the article aims to answer several questions:

-What effects do climate crisis caused catastrophes have women today?

-Is the global north political narrative correct or too simplistic/alarmist?

-What are the consequences of forced internal migration for the people affected?

-Is there evidence that climate change is causing the migration?

-Are women/elderly more vulnerable to the consequences of climate change?

-Are those able to migrate luckier than those who remain behind?

-Are women’s voices and needs heard and recognized by those in power?

-What should be done by policymakers?

(Olivia)

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Rebecca Loro's home in Nayana, a small village in northern Kenya. Photo: Victor Ombogo

Climate migration can be the subject of toxic narratives in the global north, but in the global south it is already changing lives. As COP27 opens in Egypt, we spoke to Kenyans experiencing the damages of an exceptional drought.

How climate change is forcing Kenyan women to leave their homes behind

Climate migration can be the subject of toxic narratives in the global north, but in the global south it is already changing lives. As COP27 opens in Egypt, we spoke to Kenyans experiencing the damages of an exceptional drought.

Rebecca Loro's home in Nayana, a small village in northern Kenya. Photo: Victor Ombogo

This story is a collaboration with gal-dem. You can read their story here.
Left with little access to food or water, Susan, who is in her thirties, felt she had no choice but to abandon the village with her children, leaving her husband behind to care for the remaining goats. Travelling south, from village to village and only as fast as the slowest child, they arrived three weeks later in Kalokol, a fishing town on the edge of Lake Turkana, Africa's fourth largest lake.

"When the drought came, everyone had to fend for themselves," she tells us with great difficulty in her voice, sitting by the lake's jade waters, which lap around the wooden fishing boats. The sun beats down on the fishermen behind her, as they prepare to go out.

"Our friends and neighbours moved out of the country to find aid, but some remained and who knows what their next move will be? I feel as though my children and I would be living an awful life, if I remained back home. We would've ended up like our livestock."

Reporting for gal-dem and Unearthed , we came to Turkana, Kenya's most northwestern county, to interview women like Akal who have been displaced as a result of the most prolonged and severe drought that East Africa has seen in decades.

It is a cyclical tragedy caused by La Niña - a weather phenomenon that brings dry weather to East Africa - which is now being exacerbated by the climate crisis. Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia have all been hit hard by the drought, which has persisted for four rainfall seasons, and is expected to continue through a fifth this year. More than seven million livestock have died so far, leaving the people who depend on them vulnerable to starvation. Last year, Kenya's then president, Uhuru Kenyatta, declared the situation "a national disaster".

Internal migration linked to the climate crisis is far more common than cross-border migration, which is often the focus of simplistic media headlines and political narratives in the global north. And when people do cross borders, they are more likely to travel to neighbouring countries than to different continents.

Although the women we interview have not crossed any borders, the decision to move is dramatically changing their lives. They seek new homes and livelihoods, with families often forced to separate in the process and mothers left to take care of children on their own.

It's challenging to gather concrete data on climate migration because so many factors - social, cultural, economic, demographic - can contribute to a person's decision to migrate. The environmental factors involved, most often rising sea levels, crop failure and water stress, can also evolve gradually.

Nowadays the rain and drought seasons are no longer there. You can't know which season is which.

The issue is starkly visible in Pakistan, which is reeling from the impacts of historic flooding that submerged a third of the country and left millions homeles s in August. Pakistan's climate change minister called for financial support for "a new generation of climate migrants" and others experiencing similar loss and damage to be on the agenda at COP27, next month's climate summit in Egypt.

Up to 10.1 million of these migrants could move within East Africa. Migration here is often driven by drought in dryland areas that are already fragile. Turkana is one such area: dry and remote. Around 60% of its people are pastoralists, dependent on livestock for their livelihoods.

Like Akal, Rebecca Loro's family have long been pastoralists, dependent on goats for their living, but their pasture also dried up in the recent drought. Their home is a village called Nayana, around 13km from Lodwar, Turkana's largest town. Draped in the colourful beads of her tribe, Loro's mother Agnes, who is in her fifties, remembers how the landscape - and the lives of pastoralists - has changed over the decades.

"The years we started having our children, when I had Rebecca, the land was good. There was enough rain and enough milk," she tells us. "The rain could go away for four months but it would rain in the fifth. Nowadays the rain and drought seasons are no longer there. You can't know which season is which. It can stay dry for even 10 months."

This kind of life doesn't allow loved ones to miss one another...because of the hurt we are experiencing and how occupied we are.

Intensifying marginalisations
Loro's husband decided to leave Nayana in search of more pasture, leaving her to take care of the family. It's a gender dynamic that can also be seen elsewhere in East Africa, according to Nyathon Hoth Mai, the environment and natural resources program officer at the Sudd Institute, which conducts independent research in South Sudan.

"Because women don't have another source of income, they are left vulnerable and are forced to rely on natural resources. Most of the burden falls on the shoulders of women...It's [their] responsibility to make sure that children and the elderly are safe."

As the UN's Human Rights' Office recognises , older people are often less able to migrate during a disaster because their health makes it harder to travel distances, endure periods without shelter or find food. They can also be more attached to their communities or way of life and less willing to move. If their family members are displaced, this is likely to lead to increased isolation and less support. It can be particularly challenging for older women who are left behind, as they are likely to become responsible for taking care of any remaining children and sometimes the family home and land too.

Left with her three sons and mother to care for, Rebecca, who is in her mid-twenties, eventually decided to leave Nayana. "[My husband] told me to remain behind and decide for myself what to do. There is nothing he left behind... I saw no help forthcoming. This is why I decided to also leave," she says, sitting nestled between the huts of her new community, while children and goats wander around on the dry ground behind her.

Rebecca speaks to us from Lodwar, where she moved to be close to a flowing river, and to her brother, who found her space to live. She found work on a farm and is participating in a community-led adult education program which teaches the women on the farm vital skills such as how to read pesticide labels.

Research suggests that as villages empty of men, women are taking on roles traditionally held by their husbands, brothers and fathers in order to survive. In some countries , this means women are increasingly becoming part of the agricultural labour force. But existing patriarchal societal structures mean that this often doesn't lead to increased decision-making power - and the new workload is additional to existing work and responsibilities at home.

Loro hopes to return home, if her husband can save the goats and the availability of pasture and water in Nayana improves. But ultimately, whether that is possible will be determined by the climate.

Prioritising survival
Unfortunately for Agnes, there was not enough space or resources in Lodwar for her to join her daughter. She returned to Nayana, where her other daughter and grandchildren remain too. Life for them is now about survival. They regularly go two to three days without eating, and sometimes travel to Lodwar to beg. The only source of water keeping them alive is brought in a jerry can from Lodwar by Rebecca's brother. They drink from the bottle cap to ensure they ration it.

Susan Akal has not seen her husband now for months. The only way they can communicate is by word of mouth, their messages travelling 250 kilometres through friends and nomadic intermediaries. "This kind of life doesn't allow loved ones to miss one another," she says. "I don't think of him and we don't miss each other a lot because of the hurt we are experiencing and how occupied we are." She does not get emotional about the magnitude of her experiences, describing in a matter-of-fact way how the focus on survival has stripped back her emotional life.

Akal has also adapted to her new circumstances by changing how she dresses to look more like the people around her, but at the cost of part of her identity. She wears different clothes, and no longer wears her traditional beads which signified both her tribe and her marital status. "The beads are the accessories to us pastoralists. It's similar to how people in town wear chains, earrings and lipstick. Though people only see this beauty when you're well-fed," she tells us.

When Akal arrived in Kalokol, she was focused on finding somewhere to stay and a way to feed her six children. But the work available in Kalokol is limited for women. Social norms dictate they cannot fish themselves, so instead Akal has spent two weeks learning how to cut, gut, clean and dry the fish ready for sale.

"This is the only business I can do here," she says. She found another member of her tribe in the community, who opened up her home to Akal's family. However, because the house is so close to the lake, water often enters the house when levels rise. Due to this, Akal sleeps outside on a mat to see when the waters are encroaching, so that she can get the early catch from the fishermen.

'First responders' of the climate crisis
Despite such contributions, research shows that policymakers, negotiators and NGOs are failing to recognise womens' action and agency in climate crises, including during episodes of migration or displacement. This leads to erasure of their voices and needs, says Amiera Sawas, co-author of the ActionAid research, published in 2021.

"If you exclude or ignore the roles women play in climate migration and fall into a narrative arc that solely sees women as vulnerable and needing to be saved, then you won't consider the solutions they could bring to the table and your solutions will continue to perpetuate patriarchal responses," she says.

"In the longer term, it means that women's vulnerability is compounded". Women have to be given their own seat at the decision making table and their own resources."
Not too late to act
As large-scale climate migration and displacement becomes increasingly inevitable, experts say that we have to prepare proactively, either by supporting people to adapt to climate change where they are, or by supporting them to move if they wish to.

Himani Upadhyay, a researcher on climate change impacts at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, points out that Loro and Akal - and the many others in similar situations - currently have little such agency or support.

"If the burden of the adaptation is on the individual, on the women who have undertaken this migration, and not on the institutions or responsible government authorities, then to what extent can we call such a migration 'adaptation'?" asks Upadhyay. "It's forced migration if they have no other options."

We need to enable people to move at their own will, rather than them being forced to move as a last resort

Although there was some progress on the issue at COP26 in Glasgow, countries from the global north succeeded in blocking the creation of a new fund for loss and damage as a result of the harm wrought by the climate crisis. The issue is likely to be at the centre of the public debate around COP27. Advocates face two challenges: first to overcome opposition to creating a global mechanism that transfers money to the global south from the global north to pay for the impacts of climate change; and second, to have migration recognised as one of those impacts within its framework.

As important as the UN climate summits are, they're "not a one stop shop," says Alex Randall, programme lead at the CMC. "COP27 is definitely important, but it is basically about carbon and money. There are important questions that can't necessarily be addressed there - it is not a forum that is really geared for thinking about migration rights."

But countries in the global south can only do so much alone, says Huq. "We need to think about how we are going to deal with this crisis before it happens - because it will happen. We need to enable people to move at their own will, rather than them being forced to move as a last resort," he explains. "The government of Bangladesh - or Kenya - can create projects like this to support people but ultimately poor countries have very limited resources. The world owes us."

The Kenyan women we spoke to have already felt the decision to move forced upon them, which has uprooted their families, livelihoods and even parts of their identities. Akal admits that the drastic changes in her life are exhausting her.

"I don't have the capacity to miss my husband because this drought has killed his livestock and all he sees in the fields are their bones and corpses which really depresses him . I am struggling too, in terms of providing for my children with food and school supplies. It really takes a toll on me." After a pause she adds: "I told the neighbour to give my greetings to my husband and to tell him I'm persevering."

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Christopher Deane, Michelle Buky, Sandra Mutuku, Emma Howard, Diyora Shadijanova

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How climate change is forcing Kenyan women to leave their homes behind

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Rebecca Loro's home in Nayana, a small village in northern Kenya. Photo: Victor Ombogo Climate migration can be the subject of toxic narratives in the global north, but in the global south it is already changing lives. As COP27 opens in Egypt, we spoke to Kenyans experiencing the damages of an exceptional drought.

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The century of climate migration: why we need to plan for the great upheaval

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The century of climate migration: why we need to plan for the great upheaval

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This article seeks to answer questions such as:
- How can we organise cities in an optimal way, to support more people who are displaced, but in a way which still maintains our lifestyles
- What are the solutions of infratstructure, as climate change necessitates more people to migrate to more livable places every year?
-From where do we build our notions of borders, nationalities, and cultural norms?
-What is the current anti-migrant approach, and what are the multiple facets associated with this?
-How could environmental migrants support their 'ageing nation' crisis?

Research question:
How can we build a more positive and shared worldview on migration, in order to leapfrog towards the necessary policies to support environmental migration?

This article reveals the current situation and future outlook of natural disasters being caused by climate change, as well as what migration will look like, as certain places in the world become more and more unliveable. It addresses specific approaches which would need to be pursued in order to deal with the benefits and challenges of migration, as we expect to see increasing populations of cities. It also pays reference to Benedict Andersons' "Imagined Communities", giving us an historical glimpse into why we view migraton the way we do, and how we should try to adjust our worldview.

Ambroise Centelles

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A great upheaval is coming. Climate-driven movement of people is adding to a massive migration already under way to the world's cities. The number of migrants has doubled globally over the past decade, and the issue of what to do about rapidly increasing populations of displaced people will only become greater and more urgent. To survive climate breakdown will require a planned and deliberate migration of a kind humanity has never before undertaken.

The world already sees twice as many days where temperatures exceed 50C than 30 years ago - this level of heat is deadly for humans, and also hugely problematic for buildings, roads and power stations. It makes an area unliveable. This explosive planetary drama demands a dynamic human response. We need to help people to move from danger and poverty to safety and comfort - to build a more resilient global society for everyone's benefit.

Large populations will need to migrate, and not simply to the nearest city, but also across continents. Those living in regions with more tolerable conditions, especially nations in northern latitudes, will need to accommodate millions of migrants while themselves adapting to the demands of the climate crisis. We will need to create entirely new cities near the planet's cooler poles, in land that is rapidly becoming ice-free. Parts of Siberia, for example, are already experiencing temperatures of 30C for months at a time.

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Arctic areas are burning, with mega-blazes devouring Siberia, Greenland and Alaska. Even in January, peat fires were burning in the Siberian cryosphere, despite temperatures below -50C. These zombie fires smoulder year round in the peat below ground, in and around the Arctic Circle, only to burst into huge blazes that rage across the boreal forests of Siberia, Alaska and Canada.

In 2019, colossal fires destroyed more than 4m hectares of Siberian taiga forest, blazing for more than three months, and producing a cloud of soot and ash as large as the countries that make up the entire European Union. Models predict that fires in the boreal forests and Arctic tundra will increase by up to four times by 2100.

Wherever you live now, migration will affect you and the lives of your children. It is predictable that Bangladesh, a country where one-third of the population lives along a sinking, low-lying coast, is becoming uninhabitable. (More than 13 million Bangladeshis - nearly 10% of the population - are expected to have left the country by 2050.) But in the coming decades wealthy nations will be severely affected, too.

This upheaval occurs not only at a time of unprecedented climate change but also of human demographic change. Global population will continue to rise in the coming decades, peaking at perhaps 10 billion in the 2060s. Most of this increase will be in the tropical regions that are worst hit by climate catastrophe, causing people there to flee northwards. The global north faces the opposite problem - a "top-heavy" demographic crisis, in which a large elderly population is supported by a too-small workforce. North America and Europe have 300 million people above the traditional retirement age (65+), and by 2050, the economic old-age dependency ratio there is projected to be at 43 elderly persons per 100 working persons aged 20-64. Cities from Munich to Buffalo will begin competing with each other to attract migrants.

An aerial view of Fairbourne village in Gwynedd, north Wales, expected to be abandoned by 2045. Photograph: Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP

The coming migration will involve the world's poorest fleeing deadly heatwaves and failed crops. It will also include the educated, the middle class, people who can no longer live where they planned because it's impossible to get a mortgage or property insurance; because employment has moved elsewhere. The climate crisis has already uprooted millions in the US - in 2018, 1.2 million were displaced by extreme conditions, fire, storms and flooding; by 2020, the annual toll had risen to 1.7 million people. The US now averages a $1bn disaster every 18 days.

More than half of the western US is facing extreme drought conditions, and farmers in Oregon's Klamath Basin talk about illegally using force to open dam gates for irrigation. At the other extreme, fatal floods have stranded thousands of people from Death Valley to Kentucky. By 2050, half a million existing US homes will be on land that floods at least once a year, according to data from Climate Central, a partnership of scientists and journalists. Louisiana's Isle de Jean Charles has already been allocated $48m of federal tax dollars to move the entire community due to coastal erosion and rising sea levels; in Britain, the Welsh villagers of Fairbourne have been told their homes should be abandoned to the encroaching sea as the entire village is to be "decommissioned" in 2045. Larger coastal cities are at risk, too. Consider that the Welsh capital, Cardiff, is projected to be two-thirds underwater by 2050.

The UN International Organization for Migration has cited estimates of as many as 1 billion environmental migrants in the next 30 years, while more recent projections point to 1.2 billion by 2050, and 1.4 billion by 2060. After 2050, that figure is expected to soar as the world heats further and the global population rises to its predicted peak in the mid 2060s.

The question for humanity becomes: what does a sustainable world look like? We will need to develop an entirely new way of feeding, fuelling and maintaining our lifestyles, while also reducing atmospheric carbon levels. We will need to live in denser concentrations in fewer cities, while reducing the associated risks of crowded populations, including power outages, sanitation problems, overheating, pollution and infectious disease.

At least as challenging, though, will be the task of overcoming the idea that we belong to a particular land and that it belongs to us. We will need to assimilate into globally diverse societies, living in new, polar cities. We will need to be ready to move again when necessary. With every degree of temperature increase, roughly 1 billion people will be pushed outside the zone in which humans have lived for thousands of years. We are running out of time to manage the coming upheaval before it becomes overwhelming and deadly.

Migration is not the problem; it is the solution.

How we manage this global crisis, and how humanely we treat each other as we migrate, will be key to whether this century of upheaval proceeds smoothly or with violent conflict and unnecessary deaths. Managed right, this upheaval could lead to a new global commonwealth of humanity. Migration is our way out of this crisis.

Migration, whether from disaster to safety, or for a new land of opportunity, is deeply interwoven with cooperation - it is only through our extensive collaborations that we are able to migrate, and it's our migrations that forged today's global society. Migration made us. It is our national identities and borders that are the anomaly.

The idea of keeping foreign people out using borders is relatively recent. States used to be far more concerned about stopping people from leaving than preventing their arrival. They needed their labour and taxes.

Some may think that it's flags, anthems and an army to guard your territory that's needed to develop a sense of nationhood. But in fact, the credit should go to a successful bureaucracy. Greater government intervention in people's lives and the creation of a broad systemic bureaucracy were needed to run a complex industrial society and these also forged national identity in its citizens. For instance, Prussia began paying unemployment benefit in the 1880s, which was issued initially in a worker's home village, where people and their circumstances were known. But it was also paid to people where they migrated for work, which meant a new layer of bureaucracy to establish who was Prussian and therefore entitled to benefits. This resulted in citizenship papers and controlled borders. As governments exerted greater control, people got more state benefits from their taxes, and more rights, such as voting, which engendered a feeling of ownership over the state. It became their nation.

Nation states are an artificial social structure predicated on the mythology that the world is made of distinct, homogenous groups that occupy separate portions of the globe, and claim most people's primary allegiance. The reality is far messier. Most people speak the languages of multiple groups, and ethnic and cultural pluralism is the norm. The idea that a person's identity and wellbeing is primarily tied to that of one invented national group is far-fetched, even if this is presupposed by many governments. The political scientist Benedict Anderson famously described nation states as "imagined communities".

An Afghan family relocating from a drought-stricken area the country's Badghis province in 2021. Photograph: Hoshang Hashimi/AFP/Getty Images

It is hardly surprising that the nation-state model so often fails - there have been about 200 civil wars since 1960. However, there are plenty of examples of nation states that work well despite being made up of different groups, such as Singapore, Malaysia and Tanzania, or nations created from global migrants like Australia, Canada and the US. To some degree, all nation states have been formed from a mixture of groups. When nation states falter or fail, the problem is not diversity itself, but not enough official inclusiveness - equity in the eyes of the state, regardless of which other groups a person belongs to. An insecure government allied to a specific group, which it favours over others, breeds discontent and pitches one group against others - this results in people falling back on trusted alliances based on kinship, rather.

A democracy with a mandate of official inclusiveness from its people is generally more stable - but it needs underpinning by a complex bureaucracy. Nations have navigated this in various ways, for example, devolving power to local communities, giving them voice and agency over their own affairs within the nation state (as is the case in Canada, or Switzerland's cantons). By embracing multiple groups, languages and cultures as equally legitimate, a country like Tanzania can function as a national mosaic of at least 100 different ethnic groups and languages. In Singapore, which has consciously pursued an integrated multi-ethnic population, at least one-fifth of marriages are interracial. Unjust hierarchies between groups make this harder, particularly when imposed on a majority by a minority.

In April 2021, Governor Kristi Noem tweeted: "South Dakota won't be taking any illegal immigrants that the Biden administration wants to relocate. My message to illegal immigrants ... call me when you're an American."

Consider that South Dakota only exists because thousands of undocumented immigrants from Europe used the Homestead Act from 1860 to 1920 to steal land from Native Americans without compensation or reparations. This kind of exclusive attitude from a leader weakens the sense of shared citizenship among all, creating divisions between residents who are deemed to belong and those who are not.

Official inclusion by the national bureaucracy is a starting point for building national identity in all citizens, particularly with a large influx of migrants, but the legacy of decades or centuries of injustice persists socially, economically and politically.

The frontline in Europe's war against migrants is the Mediterranean Sea, patrolled by Italian warships tasked with intercepting small EU-bound vessels and forcing them instead to ports in Libya on the north African coast. One such warship, the Caprera, was singled out for praise by Italy's anti-migrant interior minister for "defending our security", after it intercepted more than 80 migrant boats, carrying more than 7,000 people. "Honour!" he tweeted, posting a photo of himself with the crew in 2018.

However, during an inspection of the Caprera that same year, police discovered more than 700,000 contraband cigarettes and large numbers of other smuggled goods imported by the crew from Libya to be sold for profit in Italy. On further investigation, the smuggling enterprise turned out to involve several other military ships. "I felt like Dante descending into the inferno," said Lt Col Gabriele Gargano, the police officer who led the investigation.

The case highlights a central absurdity around today's attitude to migration. Immigration controls are regarded as essential - but for people, not stuff. Huge effort goes into enabling the cross-border migration of goods, services and money. Every year more than 11bn tonnes of stuff is shipped around the world - the equivalent of 1.5 tonnes per person a year - whereas humans, who are key to all this economic activity, are unable to move freely. Industrialised nations with big demographic challenges and important labour shortages are blocked from employing migrants who are desperate for jobs.

Currently, there is no global body or organisation overseeing the movement of people worldwide. Governments belong to the International Organization for Migration, but this is an independent, "related organisation" of the UN, rather than an actual UN agency: it is not subject to the direct oversight of the general assembly and cannot set common policy that would enable countries to capitalise on the opportunities immigrants offer. Migrants are usually managed by each individual nation's foreign ministry, rather than the labour ministry, so decisions are made without the information or coordinated policies to match people with job markets. We need a new mechanism to manage global labour mobility far more effectively and efficiently - it is our biggest economic resource, after all.

The aftermath of wildfires that burned more than 1m hectares of forests in Siberia's Krasnoyarsk territory in 2019. Photograph: Donat Sorokin/Tass

The conversation about migration has become stuck on what ought to be allowed, rather than planning for what will occur. Nations need to move on from the idea of controlling to managing migration. At the very least, we need new mechanisms for lawful economic labour migration and mobility, and far better protection for those fleeing danger.

Within days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, EU leaders enacted an open-border policy for refugees fleeing the conflict, giving them the right to live and work across the bloc for three years, and helping with housing, education, transport and other needs. The policy undoubtedly saved lives but additionally, by not requiring millions of people to go through protracted asylum processes, the refugees were able to disperse to places where they could better help themselves and be helped by local communities. Across the EU, people came together in their communities, on social media, and through institutions to organise ways of hosting refugees.

They offered rooms in their homes, collected donations of clothes and toys, set up language camps and mental health support - all of which was legal because of the open-border policy. This reduced the burden for central government, host towns and refugees alike.

Migration requires funds, contacts and courage. It usually involves a degree of hardship, at least initially, as people are wrenched from their families, familiar surroundings and language. Some countries make it almost impossible to move for work, and in others, parents are forced to leave behind children who they may never see grow up. An entire generation of Chinese children has reached adulthood seeing their parents only for a week or so once a year, during spring festival.

In China, hundreds of millions of people are caught in limbo between the village and cities, unable to fully transition due to archaic land laws and the lack of social housing, childcare, schools or other public facilities in the cities. The villages are sustained through remittances from absent workers, who cannot sell their farms for fear of losing their land, which is their only social security. Left-behind, isolated children then become primary caregivers for their ageing relatives. Migrant workers cannot afford to buy homes in the city and so return to the village on retirement, restarting the cycle.

In other cases, migrants pay huge fees to people traffickers for urban or foreign work, only to find themselves in indentured positions that are little better than slavery, working out their "contracts" until they can get their passports back and return home. What little money they do earn will be sent home. These include Asian construction workers and domestic workers in the Middle East and Europe, who have little protection and may end up in forced labour in the sex industry or in inhumane conditions in food processing or garment factories. Most migrants are trying to improve their lives, as we all do, by moving. Some are migrating to save their lives.

I've visited people in refugee camps in different countries across four continents, where millions of people live in limbo, sometimes for generations. Around the world, whether the refugee camps were filled with Sudanese, Tibetans, Palestinians, Syrians, Salvadorans or Iraqis, the issue was the same: people want dignity. And that means being able to provide for their families - being allowed to work, to move around, and to make a life for themselves in safety. Currently, too many nations make this wish - though it is very simple and mutually beneficial - impossible for those most in need of it. As our environment changes, millions more risk ending up in these nowhere places. Globally, this system of sealed borders and hostile migration policy is dysfunctional. It doesn't work for anyone's benefit.

A woman takes animals to safety as flood water rises in the coastal area in Khulna, Bangladesh, in August 2022. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

We are witnessing the highest levels of human displacement on record, and it will only increase. In 2020, refugees around the world exceeded 100 million, tripling since 2010, and half were children. This means one in every 78 people on earth has been forced to flee. Registered refugees represent only a fraction of those forced to leave their homes due to war or disaster.

In addition to these, 350 million people are undocumented worldwide, an astonishing 22 million in the US alone, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates. These include informal workers and those who move along ancient routes crossing national borders - these are the people who increasingly find themselves without legal recognition, living on the margins, unable to benefit from social support systems.

As long as 4.2 billion people live in poverty and the income gap between the global north and south continues to grow, people will have to move - and those living in climate-impacted regions will be disproportionately affected. Nations have an obligation to offer asylum to refugees, but under the legal definition of the refugee, written in the 1951 Refugee Convention, this does not include those who have to leave their home because of climate crisis.

Things are beginning to shift, though. In a landmark judgment, in 2020, the UN Human Rights Committee ruled that climate refugees cannot be sent home, meaning that a state would be in breach of its human rights obligations if it returns someone to a country where - due to the climate crisis - their life is in danger. However, the rulings of the committee are not internationally binding.

Today, the 50 million climate-displaced people already outnumber those fleeing political persecution. The distinction between refugees and economic migrants is rarely a straightforward one, and further complicated by the climate crisis. While the dramatic devastation of a hurricane erasing whole villages can make refugees of people overnight, more often the impacts of climate breakdown on people's lives are gradual - another poor harvest or another season of unbearable heat, which becomes the catalyst/crisis that pushes people to seek better locations.

This should give the world time to adapt to the mass migrations to come - that ultimate climate adaptation. But instead, as environments grow ever more deadly, the world's wealthiest countries spend more on militarising their borders - creating a climate "wall" - than they do on the climate emergency. The growth in offshore detention and "processing" centres for asylum seekers not only adds to the death toll, but is among the most repugnant features of the rich world's failure to ease the impact of the climate crisis on the poorest regions. We must be alert to "climate nationalists" who want to reinforce the unequal allocation of our planet's safer lands.

The planetary scale crisis demands a global climate migration pact, but in the meantime, regional free movement agreements - of the kind EU member states enjoy - would help. Such agreements have helped residents of disaster-hit Caribbean islands find refuge in safer ones.

Climate change is in most cases survivable; it is our border policies that will kill people. Human movement on a scale never before seen will dominate this century. It could be a catastrophe or, managed well, it could be our salvation.

This article was amended on 19 and 25 August 2022 to remove the suggestion that there are boreal forests in Greenland. Also, an earlier version said the International Organization for Migration "estimates that there could be as many as 1.5 billion environmental migrants in the next 30 years"; in fact, the IOM has cited estimates of up to 1 billion environmental migrants in this period.
This is an edited extract from Nomad Century: How to Survive the Climate Upheaval by Gaia Vince, published by Allen Lane on 25 August. To order a copy, go to guardianbookshop.com
Follow the Long Read on Twitter at @gdnlongread, listen to our podcasts here and sign up to the long read weekly email here.

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The century of climate migration: why we need to plan for the great upheaval

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The long read: People driven from their homes by climate disaster need protection. And ageing nations need them

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"Climate denial is waning on the right. What's replacing it might be just as scary"

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"Climate denial is waning on the right. What's replacing it might be just as scary"

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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/21/climate-denial-far-right-immigration
Questions the article sets out to answer:
- How is the far right's climate denial replaced with a fearmongering climate migrants narrative?
- How does this emergent narrative relate to eco-facist and 'blood and soil' theory?
- How does this narrative play out at the political party level?

Samuel Singer

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tanding in front of the partial ruins of Rome's Colosseum, Boris Johnson explained that a motive to tackle the climate crisis could be found in the fall of the Roman empire. Then, as now, he argued, the collapse of civilization hinged on the weakness of its borders.

"When the Roman empire fell, it was largely as a result of uncontrolled immigration - the empire could no longer control its borders, people came in from the east and all over the place," the British prime minister said in an interviewon the eve of crucial UN climate talks in Scotland. Civilization can go into reverse as well as forwards, as Johnson told it, with Rome's fate offering grave warning as to what could happen if global heating is not restrained.

This wrapping of ecological disaster with fears of rampant immigration is a narrative that has flourished in far-right fringe movements in Europe and the US and is now spilling into the discourse of mainstream politics. Whatever his intent, Johnson was following a current of rightwing thought that has shifted from outright dismissal of climate change to using its impacts to fortify ideological, and often racist, battle lines. Representatives of this line of thought around the world are, in many cases, echoing eco-fascist ideas that themselves are rooted in an earlier age of blood-and-soil nationalism.

In the US, a lawsuit by the Republican attorney general of Arizona has demanded the building of a border wall to prevent migrants coming from Mexico as these people "directly result in the release of pollutants, carbon dioxide, and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere". In Spain, Santiago Abascal, leader of the populist Vox party, has called for a "patriotic" restoration of a "green Spain, clean and prosperous".

In the UK, the far-rightBritish National party has claimed to be the "only true green party" in the country due to its focus on migration. And in Germany, the rightwing populist party Alternative for Germany has tweaked some of its earlier mockery of climate science with a platform that warns "harsh climatic conditions" in Africa and the Middle East will see a "gigantic mass migration towards European countries", requiring toughened borders.

Meanwhile, France's National Front, once a bastion of derisive climate denial, has founded a green wing called New Ecology, with Marine Le Pen, president of the party, vowing to create the "world's leading ecological civilization" with a focus on locally grown foods.

We are seeing very, very little climate denialism in conversations on the right now

Catherine Fieschi

"Environmentalism [is] the natural child of patriotism, because it's the natural child of rootedness," Le Pen said in 2019, adding that "if you're a nomad, you're not an environmentalist. Those who are nomadic ... do not care about the environment; they have no homeland." Le Pen's ally Hervé Juvin, a National Rally MEP, is seen as an influential figure on the European right in promoting what he calls "nationalistic green localism".

Simply ignoring or disparaging the science isn't the effective political weapon it once was. "We are seeing very, very little climate denialism in conversations on the right now," said Catherine Fieschi, a political analyst and founder of Counterpoint, who tracks trends in populist discourse. But in place of denial is a growing strain of environmental populism thathas attempted to dovetail public alarm over the climate crisis with disdain for ruling elites, longing for a more traditional embrace of nature and kin and calls tobanish immigrants behind strong borders.

Millions of people are already being displaced from their homes, predominately in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia, due to disasters worsened by climate change such as flooding, storms and wildfires. In August, the United Nations said Madagascar was on the brink of the world's first "climate change famine".

People living in and around Tsihombe, Madagascar, gather at holes dug to access water. Photograph: Alice Rahmoun/AP

The number of people uprooted around the world will balloon further, to as manyas 1.2 billion by 2050 by some estimates, and while most will move within their own countries, many millions are expected to seek refuge across borders. This mass upending of lives is set to cause internal and external conflicts that the Pentagon, among others, has warned will escalate into violence.

The response to this trend on the right has led to what academics Joe Turner and Dan Bailey call "ecobordering", where restrictions on immigration are seen as vital to protect the nativist stewardship of nature and where the ills of environmental destruction are laid upon those from developing countries, ignoring the far larger consumptive habits of wealthy nations. In an analysis of 22 far-right parties in Europe, the academics found this thinking is rife among rightwing partiesand "portrays effects as causes and further normalizes racist border practices and colonial amnesia within Europe".

Turner, an expert in politics and migration at the University of York, said the link between climate and migration is "an easy logic" for politicians such as Johnson as it plays into longstanding tropes on the right that overpopulation in poorer countries is a leading cause of environmental harm. More broadly, it is an attempt by the right to seize the initiative on environmental issues that have for so long been the preserve of center-left parties and conservationists.

"The far right in Europe has an anti-immigration platform, that's their bread and butter, so you can see it as an electoral tactic to start talking about green politics," Turner said, adding that migrants are being blamed in two ways - first, for moving to countries with higher emissions and then adding to those emissions, as rightwing figures in Arizona have claimed; and secondly for supposedly bringing destructive, polluting habits with them from their countries of origin.

A mixture of this Malthusian and ethno-nationalist thinking is being distilled into political campaigning, as in a political pamphlet described in Turner and Bailey's research paper from SVP, the largest party in Switzerland's federal assembly, which shows a city crowded by people and cars belching out pollution, with a tagline that translates to "stop massive immigration". A separate campaign ad by SVP claims that 1 million migrants will result in thousands of miles of new roads and that "anyone who wants to protect the environment in Switzerland must fight against mass immigration".

The far right depict migrants as being "essentially poor custodians of their own lands and then treating European nature badly as well", Turner said. "So you get these headlines around asylum seekers eating swans, all these ridiculous scaremongering tactics. But they play into this idea that by stopping immigrants coming here, you are actually supporting a green project."

Experts are clear that the main instigators of the climate crisis are wealthy people in wealthy countries. The richest 1% of the world's population were responsible for the emission of more than twice as much carbon dioxide as the poorer half of the world from 1990 to 2015, research has found, with people in the US causing the highest level of per capita emissions in the world. Adding new arrivals to high-emitting countries doesn't radically ramp up these emissions at the same rate: a study by Utah State University found that immigrants are typically "using less energy, driving less, and generating less waste" than native-born Americans.

Still, the idea of personal sacrifice is hard for many to swallow. While there is strengthening acceptance of climate science among the public, and a restlessness that governments have done so little to constrain global heating, support for climate polices plummets when it comes to measures that involve the taxing of gasoline or other impositions. According to a research paper co-authored by Fieschi, this has led to a situation where "detractors are taking up the language of freedom fighters".

"We are seeing the growth of accusations of climate hysteria as a way for elites to exploit ordinary people," Fieschi said. "The solutions that are talked about involve spending more money on deserving Americans and deserving Germans and so on, and less on refugees. It's 'yes, we will need to protect people, but let's protect our people.'"

This backlash is visible in protest movements such as the gilets jaunes (yellow vests) in France, which became the longest-running protest movement in the country since the second world war by railing against, among other things, a carbon tax placed on fuel. Online,favored targets such as Greta Thunberg or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have been shown in memes as Nazis or devils intent on impoverishing western civilization through their supposedly radical ideas to combat climate change. Fieschi said the right's interaction with climate is far more than just about borders - it is animating fears that personal freedoms are under attack from a cosseted, liberal elite.

Protesters in Marseille set a model of Earth on fire during a demonstration where members of Extinction Rebellion were supported by gilets jaunes, in July. Photograph: Gerard Bottino/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock

"You see these quite obviously populist arguments in the US and Europe that a corrupt elite, the media and government have no idea what ordinary people's lives are like as they impose these stringent climate policies," said Fieschi, whose research has analyzed the climate conversation on the right taking place on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and other social media platforms.

This sort of online chatter has escalated since the Covid-19 pandemic started, Fieschi said, and is being fed along a line of influence that begins with small, conspiratorial rightwing groups spreading messages that are then picked up by what she calls "middle of the tail" figures with thousands of followers, and then in turn disseminated by large influencers and into mainstream center-right politics.

"There are these conspiratorial accusations that Covid is a dry run for restrictions that governments want to impose with the climate emergency, that we need to fight for our freedoms on wearing masks and on all these climate rules," Fieschi said. "There is a yearning for a pre-Covid life and a feeling climate policies will just cause more suffering.

"What's worrying," Fieschi continued, "is that more reasonable parts of the right, mainstream conservatives and Republicans, are being drawn to this. They will say they don't deny climate change but then tap into these ideas." She said center-right French politicians have started disparaging climate activists as "miserabilists", while Armin Laschet, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union who sought to succeed Angela Merkel, has said Germany should focus on its own industry and people in the face of cascading global crises.

The interplay between environmentalism and racism has some of its deepest roots in the US, where some of the conservation movement's totemic figures of the past embraced views widely regarded as abhorrent today. Wilderness was something viewed in the 19th century as bound in rugged, and exclusively white, masculinity, and manifest destiny demanded the expansion of a secure frontier.

John Muir, known as the father of national parks in the US, described native Americans as "dirty" and said they "seemed to have no right place in the landscape". Madison Grant, a leading figure in the protection of the American bison and the establishment of Glacier national park, was an avowed eugenicist who argued for "inferior" races to be placed into ghettoes and successfully lobbied for Ota Benga, a Congolese man, to be put on display alongside apes at the Bronx Zoo. This focus on racial hierarchies would come to be adopted into the ideology of the Nazis - themselves avowed conservationists.

There has been something of a reckoning of this troubling past in recent years - a bronze statue of Theodore Roosevelt on horseback flanked by a native American man and an African man is to be removed from the front of the American Museum of Natural History in New York and at least one conservation group named after the slaveholder and anti-abolitionist John James Audubon is changing its name. But elsewhere,themes of harmful overpopulation have been picked up by a resurgent right from a liberal environmental movement that now largely demurs from the topic.

Law enforcement and fire personnel wait to enter an area encroached by flames during the Bear fire, in Oroville, California, in September 2020. Photograph: Josh Edelson/AFP/Getty Images

Republicans, aware that many of their own younger voters are turned off by the relentless climate denial as they see their futures wreathed in wildfire smoke and flood water, have sensed an opportunity. "The right is reclaiming that older Malthusian population rhetoric and is using that as a cudgel in green terms rather than unpopular racist terms," said Blair Taylor, program director at the Institute for Social Ecology, an educational and research body.

"It's weird that this has become a popular theme in the US west because the west is sparsely populated and that hasn't slowed environmental destruction," he added. "But this is about speaking to nativist fears, it isn't about doing anything to solve the problem."

The spearhead for modern nativism in the US is, of course, Donald Trump who has, along with an often dismissive stance towards climate science itself, sought to portray migrants from Mexico and Central America as criminals and "animals" while vowing to restore clean air and water to deserving American citizens. If there is to be another iteration of a Trump presidency, or a successful campaign by one of his acolytes, the scientific denial may be dialed down somewhat while retaining the reflex nativism.

We will see weird theories that will spread blame in all the wrong directions

Blair Taylor

The Republican lawsuit in Arizona may be a prelude to an ecological reframing of Trump's fetish for border walls should the former president run again for office in 2024, with migrants again the target. "We will see weird theories that will spread blame in all the wrong directions," Taylor said. "More walls, more borders, more exclusion - that's most likely the way we are heading."

A recasting of environmentalism in this way has already branched out in different forms throughout the US right, spanning gun-toting preppers who view nature as a bastion to be defended from interlopers - "a 'back to the land' ideology where you are an earner and provider, not a not soft-handed soy boy," as Taylor describes it - to the vaguely mystic "wellness" practitioners who have risen to prominence by spreading false claims over the effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines.

The latter group, Taylor said, includes those who have a fascination with organic farming, Viking culture, extreme conspiracy theories such as the QAnon fantasy and a rejection of science and reason in favour of discovering an "authentic self". These disparate facets are all embodied, he said, in Jake Angeli, the so-called QAnon shaman who was among the rioters who stormed the US Capitol on 6 January. Angeli, who became famous for wearing horns and a bearskin headdress during the violent insurrection, was sentenced to 41 months in prison over his role in the riot. He gained media attention for refusing to eat the food served in jail because it was not organic.

Angeli, who previously attended a climate march to promote his conspiracy-laden YouTube channel and said he is in favor of "cleansed ecosystems", has been described as an eco-fascist, a term that has also been applied to Patrick Crusius, the Dallas man accused of killing 23 people in a mass shooting at a Walmart in El Paso, Texas, in 2019.

In a document published online shortly before the shooting, Crusius wrote: "The environment is getting worse by the year ... So the next logical step is to decrease the number of people in America using resources. If we can get rid of enough people, then our way of life can become more sustainable." The shooting came just a few months after the terrorist massacre of 49 people in two mosques in Christchurch in New Zealand, with the perpetrator describing himself as an eco-fascist unhappy about the birthrate of immigrants.

Such extreme, violent acts erupting from rightwing eco-populist beliefs are still rare but the "'alt-right' has been adept at taking concerns and making them mainstream", said Taylor. "It has fostered the idea that nature is a place of savage survival that brings us back to original society, that nature itself is fascist because there is no equality in nature. That's what they believe."

Advocates for those fleeing climate-induced disasters hope there will be a shift in the other direction, with some advocating for a new international refugee framework. The UN convention on refugeesdoes not recognize climate change, and its effects, as a reason for countries to provide shelter to refugees. An escalation in forced displacement from drought, floods and other calamities will put further onus on the need for reform. But opening up the convention for a revamp could see it wound back as much as it could be expanded, given the growing ascendancy of populism and authoritarianism in many countries.

"The big players aren't invested in changing any of the definitions around refugees - in fact the US and UK are making it even more difficult to claim asylum," said Turner. "I think what you're going to see is internally displaced people increasing and the burden, as it already is, falling on neighbors in the global south."

Ultimately, the extent of the suffering caused by global heating, and the increasingly severe responses required to deal with that, will help determine the reactionary response. While greater numbers of people will call for climate action, any restrictions imposed by governments will provide a sense of vindication to rightwingers warning of overreaching elites.

"My sense is that we won't do enough to avoid others bearing the brunt of this," Fieschi said. "Solidarity has its limits, after all. Sure, you want good things for the children of the world. But ultimately you will put your children first."

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Climate denial is waning on the right. What's replacing it might be just as scary

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tanding in front of the partial ruins of Rome's Colosseum, Boris Johnson explained that a motive to tackle the climate crisis could be found in the fall of the Roman empire. Then, as now, he argued, the collapse of civilization hinged on the weakness of its borders.

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Environmental migrants: the human face of climate change in South America

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Environmental migrants: the human face of climate change in South America

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Between 1998 and 2020 in Latin America and Caribbean more than 300.000 people died and more than 227 million people were affected by climate change induced phenomena.

The situation of (potential) climate migrants is complex and highly dependent on contextual factors as inequality, poverty, population density, exploitation of natural resources...

In July 2022 the UNFCCC organized the Latin American and Caribbean Climate Week in Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic)

This was a good opportunity for social actors from different societies to discuss some questions, which were also discussed in this article:

How is the process of climate mitigation and adaption working? How can it be improved?
What role should play the international community?
Which role for the development of the left/target regions does climate migration play?
Which role do safe migrants routes play?
How can the voice of the migrants be incorporated in climate/migration policies?

Julian Tito

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Cambio climático

Tribuna

i

Artículos estrictamente de opinión que responden al estilo propio del autor. Estos textos de opinión han de basarse en datos verificados y ser respetuosos con las personas aunque se critiquen sus actos. Todas las tribunas de opinión de personas ajenas a la Redacción de EL PAÍS llevarán, tras la última línea, un pie de autor -por conocido que éste sea- donde se indique el cargo, título, militancia política (en su caso) u ocupación principal, o la que esté o estuvo relacionada con el tema abordado

Más de 300.000 personas han muerto por fenómenos climáticos y geofísicos en América Latina y el Caribe en dos décadas. Es urgente abordar las consecuencias del calentamiento global en la movilidad humana, advierte el director regional de la Organización Internacional para las Migraciones

Una mujer ayuda a un niño a cruzar una calle inundada en Huachipa, en Lima (Perú), el 19 de marzo de 2017. Mariana Bazo

Entre 1998 y 2020, los fenómenos climáticos y geofísicos causaron 312.000 muertes y afectaron directamente a más de 277 millones de personas en América Latina y el Caribe, según el informe sobre el estado del clima de la Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM). Los impactos del calentamiento global no se vislumbran solo en el futuro, sino también en el presente, y además se ven multiplicados por las características de la región. En palabras del Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC, por sus siglas en inglés), esta situación se ve amplificada por la desigualdad, la pobreza, el crecimiento poblacional, la ocupación de lugares de alto riesgo y la elevada densidad, así como también, en algunos casos, la falta de una planificación sostenible de la explotación de los recursos naturales.

El cambio climático tiene una influencia clara en la movilidad humana en la región, en particular dentro de las fronteras de los países. Solo en 2021, el Centro de Monitoreo del Desplazamiento Interno registró más de 1,6 millones de nuevos desplazamientos por desastres en las Américas, una cifra que ascendió a 4,5 millones en 2020. Para el año 2050, el Banco Mundial cifra en 17 millones el número potencial de migrantes climáticos en América Latina si se cumplen los escenarios más pesimistas.

Para el 2050, el Banco Mundial cifra en 17 millones el número potencial de migrantes climáticos en América Latina, según los escenarios más pesimistas

La Semana del Clima de América Latina y el Caribe, organizada por ONU Cambio Climático en Santo Domingo (República Dominicana) del 18 al 22 de julio de 2022, representa una ocasión ideal para evaluar el progreso realizado en la región en términos de mitigación y adaptación al calentamiento global. Aunque las propuestas existen, los resultados concretos son limitados, siendo necesarios más esfuerzos para asegurar una transición exitosa hacia economías más verdes, resilientes y sostenibles, que protejan a las poblaciones más vulnerables.

Más que un evento sobre cambio climático

La Semana del Clima, además de un evento sobre cambio climático, debe ser un encuentro sobre las sociedades de la región, sobre cómo enfrentan situaciones cada vez más complejas y sobre cómo la comunidad internacional debe apoyar en esta tarea. Entre la tecnicidad de los debates se destaca la necesidad de poner de relieve el rostro humano del fenómeno: el de las personas y comunidades que sufren los embates de amenazas cada vez más severas que afectan a los medios y las condiciones de vida a lo largo y ancho de la región.

Muchas de estas personas recurren a la migración como mecanismo de respuesta ante los desastres, la degradación ambiental, la pérdida de medios de vida y los impactos adversos del cambio climático.

Los desplazamientos masivos registrados en Perú en 2017 provocados por El Niño, la movilidad de comunidades amazónicas que enfrentan incendios cada vez más devastadores, la persistente sequía en la zona central de Chile, las inundaciones que afectaron el noreste brasileño a finales de 2021 o la necesidad de reubicar poblaciones costeras afectadas por la subida del nivel del mar son algunos de los ejemplos que reflejan sociedades en movimiento en contextos de amenazas ambientales.

La migración no es solo un resultado de la falta de adaptación a estas situaciones. También contribuye al desarrollo y la resiliencia de las comunidades de origen y de destino. Los esfuerzos para prevenir la migración forzada deben complementarse con el desarrollo de vías de migración segura y regular para personas afectadas por desastres súbitos y graduales, como lo recomienda el Pacto para una Migración Segura, Ordenada y Regular, principal acuerdo global en materia migratoria.

América del Sur representa un espacio de innovación en la búsqueda de soluciones a estas cuestiones tan complejas. Los países de la región han avanzado en estrategias novedosas para abordar los impactos del cambio climático en la movilidad humana. Desde el desarrollo de planes de acción y alineamientos nacionales sobre migración climática, hasta la reubicación de poblaciones en zonas de riesgo, pasando por la creación de visas humanitarias para las víctimas de los desastres.

No podemos, sin embargo, cesar en la ambición de fortalecer el trabajo junto a las comunidades y las personas en movimiento más vulnerables para avanzar en acciones que aseguren su protección bajo la óptica de los Derechos Humanos, los alineamientos del Pacto Mundial para la Migración y en apoyo a la concreción de la Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible. Para esta labor, la coordinación entre los diferentes actores, el intercambio de experiencias y el apoyo de la comunidad internacional es fundamental. Desde la Organización Internacional de las Migraciones hemos señalado que las negociaciones climáticas son un espacio fundamental de discusión para integrar la cuestión migratoria, bajo la premisa de que no es posible emprender una acción climática sin abordar las consecuencias del calentamiento global en la movilidad humana.

No es posible emprender una acción climática sin abordar las consecuencias del calentamiento global en la movilidad humana

Tanto en la Semana del Clima, como en las preparaciones hacia la edición 27 de la Conferencia de las Partes de la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre Cambio Climático (COP27) que se reunirá en Egipto en noviembre de 2022, resulta crucial integrar las perspectivas de las poblaciones migrantes, sus necesidades y sus capacidades.

Las migraciones climáticas en América del Sur son tan variadas como las circunstancias en las que se producen: no migran de la misma manera poblaciones del Caribe, de los Andes, de la Amazonía o del Chaco. Todos estos movimientos nos recuerdan que se requiere actuar con urgencia en la mejora de las políticas y con una mayor ambición y contundencia para hacer frente a las consecuencias del cambio climático.

Marcelo Pisani es director regional para América del Sur de la Organización Internacional para las Migraciones (OIM).

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Más información

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Migrantes ambientales: el rostro humano del cambio climático en América del Sur

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Más de 300.000 personas han muerto por fenómenos climáticos y geofísicos en América Latina y el Caribe en dos décadas. Es urgente abordar las consecuencias del calentamiento global en la movilidad humana, advierte el director regional de la Organización Internacional para las Migraciones

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Climate change will make it harder for world’s poorest to migrate, study says 

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Climate change will make it harder for world’s poorest to migrate, study says 

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https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-will-make-it-harder-for-worlds-poorest-to-migrate-study-says/

Question the articles responds to:
- How does climate change (CC) affect individuals mobility, in turn determined by economic resources, when impacted by CC-related events?
- How, then, does 'resource-constrained (im)mobility' affect migration patterns in the context of CC?

Samuel Singer

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Climate change will make it harder for world's poorest to migrate, study says - Carbon Brief

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Climate change will make it harder for the world's poorest people to migrate - leaving them "extremely vulnerable" to continued impacts and increased poverty, new research finds. The paper, published in Nature Climate Change, finds that as the impacts of climate change become more severe, people will be increasingly affected by "resource-constrained immobility" - meaning that they do not have the resources to migrate.

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The article sheds light on the internal migrants in the Ningxia state in China, wherein the locals living in environmentally deteriorated regions of Xihaigu are given “an ultimatum” by the government to move to northern regions in the state to break the so-called PPE cycle – poverty, population, and environment cycle.

The area of origin of the migrants are an important region for water and soil conservation, as well as preventing the spread of desertification. Therefore, it is particularly important to restore and protect the ecology in the region.

For the environmental restoration to take place, the government is expecting entire villages to relocate. To ensure efficient relocation, they are also planning to carry out demolition of villages; villages not able to relocate entirely would need to relocate at least part of its population.

However, the relocation plan is not efficient in integrating migrants to their newly located regions, where industrial sector is more developed than the agricultural, which poses a huge challenge of skill-mismatch for the migrants and demand and supply discrepancy for the labor market.

Migrants express a feeling of frustration with the government plan, as well as uselessness within the new community, as most of them come from an agricultural background and do not fulfill the eligibility criteria (e.g., high school completion or literacy) to work in the manufacturing sector. The authors point out this increases the risk of migrants returning home or being pushed into poverty.

Questions:

How is poverty and environmental vulnerability connected in the rural northwest region of China?

Is the State’s approach in relocating local villagers without structural support effective in fighting poverty?

Anudari Gunbaatar

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气候移民

当偏房的屋顶被七手八脚掀落的时候，马国清一家新的生活就要仓促开始了。他只是拿到一个有地址有门牌的新房钥匙，而对新家是什么样一无所知。那天是2013年12月清冷的一天，政府雇来的搬迁车队停在村口，此时距离人们得到确切搬家通知不过两天，大多数人都只能像他那样象征性的收拾几样家具：床、柜子，几件衣物和一袋土豆。就这样，浩浩荡荡的搬家队伍从宁夏南部山区向北部平原出发，留下处处是残缺旧屋的村庄。

马国清今年31岁，他和父母妻儿生活在宁夏西吉一个叫芦子窝的村里。他还有3个儿子，分别只有7岁、5岁和不到周岁。跟村子其他年轻人比起来，马国清说话做事甚少犹豫。搬家的前两月，当乡政府通知他去签搬迁协议时，他甚至都没看文本便落了名。

"外面地方平，用水方便，小孩读书方便，我考虑什么？"他说。

马家的搬迁，源于宁夏一项涉及35万人的移民计划。这份叫做宁夏"十二五"中南部生态移民的规划中写到：迁出地"处于我国半干旱黄土高原向干旱风沙区过渡的农牧交错地带，生态脆弱，干旱少雨，土地瘠薄，资源贫乏，自然灾害频繁，水土流失严重。"

从素有"塞上江南"之称的银川平原向南，便进入规划所指的黄土高原区。从卫星地图上看，宁夏地势南高北低。北部的贺兰山由南向北，扼守沿山洪积平原，由青藏高原发源的黄河过黑山峡，河面豁然开朗，自此大致沿着贺兰山的走向，纵贯整个宁夏平原，造就了"天下黄河富宁夏"。然而在这个南北狭长的自治区南下，穿过引黄灌区，则是由风沙统治的王国。在春天来临之前，那里是一片单调干涸的黄土坡，不长其余颜色，车子急驶而过，风在窗外夹着泥沙旅行，然后落在深陷的沟壑里，不着痕迹的改变着地貌。

就是这块干涸的黄土高原，亦是我国连片扶贫区之一，生活着回、汉等民族。它有个更为人所熟知的名字--西海固。

"中国西北干旱环境早在晚白垩纪和早第三纪就开始形成，并不是短期内造成的。"宁夏大学资源环境学院教授汪一鸣说，"喜马拉雅造山运动之后青藏高原大幅度隆升，干旱程度就加剧了。"

不过，如今的全球气候变化似乎使事情向更糟的方向发展。

根据宁夏气象局的研究，近50年那里的平均气温上升了2.2℃，干旱及其它极端气候事件也比过去来得更加频繁。政府间气候变化专门委员会认为，全球海陆表面平均温度在过去130年间升高了0.85℃，而宁夏的变化显然高于世界平均水平。

气温上升有可能会使未来降水增加，但宁夏所处的西北干旱半干旱区生态脆弱，这使得气候专家林而达认为升温同时会导致蒸发增加，可能抵消甚至超过降水量增加的作用，无助于解决干旱缺水的程度，也就使得世代生活在那里的人面临着维持生计的困扰。

一项由中英瑞三国于2010年联合开展的中国适应气候变化项目研究显示，宁夏中南部为雨养农业，农田除了靠天吃饭，缺乏灌溉水，而随着气候变化，一来粮食亩产呈现递减趋势，仅为30公斤左右，不足黄灌区的1/10，二来气象灾害造成的粮食产量损失呈不断上升趋势。

在马国清父亲马炳武的记忆里，西海固从1970年代开始雨水就愈加少，1990年代中，水少到一根草也不长，庄稼全部绝收，为了不让家里人饿死，他只好带着年幼的马国清一路行至银川乞讨。

家里的晚餐是简单的土豆面--西海固最常见的主食，暗黄的灯光照在屋里，一家人围坐在短腿桌旁，孩子的眼睛则盯着电视眨也不眨，这是除了电灯外家里唯一的电器。妻子马晓红从县城捎回来几样蔬菜，放进沸水和辣椒一煮，给晚餐增加了滋味。绿色蔬菜在村庄的饭桌上并不常见，就连串门的叔叔都说这是芦子窝最丰富的晚餐。马国清还记得随父亲行乞的景象。"我那时候就想，以后要每天都能吃上一碗土豆面就好！"

把像芦子窝这样受到气候变化影响的贫困人口迁出，便是宁夏所采取的应对战略之一。如果按照国际移民组织的定义，这部分人则是事实上的气候移民。

该组织发布的《2010国际移民报告》中指出气候变化可以从以下方面影响人类的迁徙：持续增温及干旱影响农业生产，降低生计水平和清洁用水的利用，导致人们被迫离开家园；又或者因为气候变化影响生态系统服务，人对自然资源的争夺导致社会冲突和人口流动。

在芦子窝，尽管没有人知道这个词，但国际移民组织在2013年预测，在今后的40年里全球将有2亿到10亿人成为气候移民，如果以今天的人口规模来算，这意味着全世界每100个人中就有2-14人加入这一阵营。

在中国，如果把西海固这样的生态脆弱区和《中国农村扶贫开发纲要（2011-2020）》中提到的连片特困地区、重点县和扶贫村放在同一张地图上，会发现它们在地理上有惊人的重合。环境保护部2005年统计显示，中国95%的绝对贫困人口生活在生态环境极度脆弱的地区，而这部分地区对气候变化更为敏感。

关注于抗击贫困的非政府组织乐施会在中国注意到了全球变暖与贫困问题的关系，他们的报告直陈：气候变化将直接或间接加剧贫困，而国家应当加大相关气候变化适应对策及技术研发的投入，并在气候变化的国际谈判中，将适应气候变化与扶贫结合作为中的议题加以讨论，以达成一个真正关注贫困人群利益的协议。

最后通牒

芦子窝的名字来自于山沟里一窝野生的芦草，它们在落了雪花一样的盐碱地里生长。山坡上散落着四四方方的民居院落，他们逐渐取代传统的土窑，而后者大多已成为牛羊的圈所。山谷里偶尔传来年轻人们追捕野兔的奔跑声和笑声。除此而外，乡村生活实在乏善可陈。

芦子窝位于宁夏南部固原市西吉县，人口50余万，据省会银川370余公里。那里是陇西黄土高原的腹地，东部六盘山所发挥的小气候调节作用有限。在西吉，干旱经年累月，初来乍到的人，直觉得嗓子眼儿都皱起来，就像裂开的黄土地。

那里有多旱？西吉气象局的统计表明，西吉年均降水量为200-650毫米，蒸发量1500-2000毫米之间，蒸发量大大高于降水量。

水是村庄的头等大事。西海固的俗语说：喝一口水，眼泪汪汪，饮一瓢水，就是天堂。赶驴挑水，是每家每户清晨起来的第一件事。

细小的山泉在峡谷的深处，沿着曲折陡峭的山路要走40分钟。近的地方还有一眼泉，流出来却是苦咸水，只有牲口能喝，远的泉才是清水，人可饮用。话这么说，可马国清用"清泉水"泡茶，在外人吃起来，杯盖里仍旧是苦味。

根据西吉县水务局的调查，这里的地下水溶解性总固体和硫酸盐超过国家生活饮用水标准数倍。在县城里的人家都购买外来的纯净水使用，在村里，人们只好守着传统生活。

马国清匐在蓄水池口，全身弯下去一桶一桶把水舀上来。蓄水池口又低又滑，他的母亲有一次就失足整个人掉下去。接好水以后，准备赶着驴回去，但他的驴好像怕人再让它负重，还没等水桶盖拧紧就要跑，马国清大喝了它一声，结果驴跑得更快，人只好小跑，跟着驴赶路。

除了挑水，户户都要造水窖，水窖的外形四四方方，通过收集地面、屋顶的雨水并存储起来供人畜使用。

马国清家里的水窖能装8、9吨水，足全家5月之需。"这要是在你们城里，还不洗几次澡就没了？"他说。

妻子马晓红出生在西吉县城，2006年他们结婚时，她的弟弟来送亲，到了亲家屋门前，一看这惨淡模样，不禁替姐姐抹眼泪。这也是马晓红第一次来芦子窝，马国清早跟她说："我只有两间屋、一头牛给你。"结果她答说，"再怎么样，看上的是你的人，又不是你的家。"

也不是每个人都像马国清这么幸运，曾经就有西海固人娶了外来的媳妇，娘家人嫌弃村里穷，硬是把新娘给带走了。

虽然外面的人不愿来，但西海固的人口之多及由此导致的资源匮乏又是大问题。

据研究宁夏人口变迁问题的杨新才讲述，在上世纪40年代末，由于清朝末年回民起义遍及西北，及至几十年战后恢复，西海固人口不足20万人。随后又经过民国烽火和地震等灾害，到上世纪40年代末，人口增加，但总数也不足50万人。相比较，现在仅西吉一县就有50余万人口。

曾任宁夏发展和改革委员会副主任的马忠玉说，"上世纪八九十年代，中国科学院、国家土地管理局，还有联合国粮农组织共同估算，宁夏中南部地区的人口承载能力只有130万人左右，但是现在当地人口已经230万人了。超载会导致更加贫困，环境更加退化。所以在全球气候变化的大背景下，宁夏一定要积极应对气候变化。"

宁夏大学资源环境学院教授汪一鸣明确支持移民主张。他说，宁夏的中南部是一方水土养育不了一方人，通过移民来缓解当前的环境压力，也能尽快让老百姓摆脱那些不具备生存条件的土地，走出贫困。

2011年"十二五"生态移民计划启动，芦子窝被列入搬迁名单，接收他们的是500公里外、宁夏北面的村庄庙庙湖。

实际上，许多西海固人从1980年代开始就自发向自然资源相对丰富的银川平原一带迁徙。在1983年，宁夏政府开始号召南部山区的贫困人口向北部迁徙，并在黄河灌溉区进行拓荒，开始新的生活。

从2001年开始，宁夏政府提出"生态移民"的概念，和前一阶段的移民不同，这一阶段强调生态修复的功能，强调移民不仅仅是为了扶贫，也为了重建迁出区脆弱的生态环境。宁夏扶贫办的统计显示，自1983年以来两个阶段共移民78.58万人。

按照规划，迁出地要实施生态修复，要求自然村或行政村整体搬迁，为了让村民能尽快搬走，才出现了一开始政府要求拆房一幕。不能马上搬走的，也要拆掉一部分。宁夏移民局副局长郭建繁说，过去没有这个政策，出现了移民在迁出地和迁入地两头生活的情况，给人口管理和生态修复都带来了很多问题，为了让人不再两头摆动不得已就要拆房子。

回到芦子窝，就是否应该搬迁，留守的中老年人和外出打工的年轻人形成了不同的阵营。

北方民族大学教授范建荣一直关注宁夏移民问题。他对"十二五"移民的研究发现，中老年搬迁意愿并不强烈，有的是因为对外界的适应能力不如年轻人，而有的则是因为"故乡情结"。

马国清的叔叔、45岁的马存子是主张留下的人之一。他的院子在山头，往下一望是深深的峡谷。四季更迭、天地苍凉，于他，都是院外的风景。

尽管政府已经下了最后通牒，但马存子仍没有放弃留守的念头。春播一到，他拎着土豆和小麦种子又上地里去了。

马存子的儿子马存宝20岁，要不是去年在外与人起冲突腿上受了伤，他不会提前返乡。村里的年轻人们都陆陆续续搬了家，他终日无事可做，只好盯着手机网上与人聊天。马存子也知道儿子的心意，这个四处是断壁的乡村托不起儿子的城市梦，去了庙庙湖就离银川更进了一步，但他要考虑全家人的出路。

马存子也不是没有那样的梦想。1995年西吉大旱，他领着全家投奔远嫁新疆的姐姐，不想那一年移民计划遭到挫折，开垦的棉花地没有收成，等到1997年西吉下了雨，旱情缓解，马存子思前想后，决定又返回西海固。

"在外面过得不容易，经过了那次，才想着安稳一点，不要往外搬。"他说。

生态修复

西部的民歌调子《花儿》有一曲如此唱到：沟岔里的水干了，我的嗓子干得冒火了。在西海固，干渴的又哪里仅仅是人。

芦子窝的山泉在几十年以前还不是涓涓细流，80岁的老阿訇马德录清清楚楚的记得。他们一家是村里最早的定居者，他听他的长辈说，一家人于1894年从甘肃逃荒而来。祖爷爷来的时候，就是看这里有泉，便在黄土坡上修了土窖住下来。再后来，才慢慢有了其他家庭，从一户到一组再到一村。

给芦子窝带来最大改变的还是垦荒。马德录说，人民公社时候，为了提高粮食产量，把能开荒的山头都开了。

"泉水原来不小，过几年就不行了，高处的没有了，又在低处挖。"他用细小的声音说。

离开农村到西吉县城，发源于宁夏月亮山南麓的葫芦河只剩下干涸的河床，孩子们只知道它的名字却没见过它的样子。

西吉自来水公司的经理高玉杰因为与水打交道而对此深刻，"在20年以前，葫芦河岸还有很多树，我小时候还在河里玩水。"高玉杰将此归罪于过度的开发和全球气候变暖。这个受困于水的地方，在去年底县城才刚刚有了远调而来的自来水，过去，县城靠着地下水运转，这些地下水不仅在各项指标上都达不到国家生活用水标准，而且停水2、3天甚至更长都是家常便饭。

干涸的河道在一些地方成了种植西芹的农田，过去几年西芹价格看涨，这种需要大量水供养而生长的蔬菜在西吉得到了大力推广，县政府甚至将其作为与土豆这种抗旱作物同等重要的优势产业。高玉杰无奈的说，"我们研究水的人都知道发展西芹是个问题，但它又确实在农民增收上作用很大。"

2003年夏天西吉遭遇暴雨，葫芦河河床20年来首次有了流水，暴雨把浑黄的泥浆冲得七零八落，当地媒体以"干涸的河床长出了水草，两岸绿意盎然"来形容那时景象，不过这只是昙花一现，一时的暴雨不仅没能拯救葫芦河，还造成了西芹和其他农作物减产。

脆弱的环境迫使人们利用更多的自然资源扩大生产，而这种生产又反过来导致环境愈加恶化，形成了所谓的PPE怪圈--贫困、人口、环境互为因果关系。

对此，汪一鸣说，移民，就是让自然资源的承载量逐渐回归到一个合理的水平。迁移不代表退缩，人与自然之间，需要这样的妥协。

钻研西北生态问题的宁夏大学资源环境学院教授宋乃平在迁出区看到了改变。根据他的研究，年降水量300毫米是宁夏干旱、半干旱区生态修复的临界点。300毫米以上，自然界的修复能力较强，不需要人工干预，植被生态在一定时间就能得到恢复；而300毫米以下的地区，则需要人工干预。

"降水和土壤状况好一点的地方自然能恢复到什么样？基本上植被覆盖一年就能恢复60%。"宋乃平说。

宋乃平通过遥感技术观测到的数据进行分析，解析宁夏植被覆盖率和气候与人为活动的关系，并期望为宁夏的生态修复提供经验。植被的生长虽然与自然因素休戚相关，但一些地方的研究表明，尽管有的地区年平均降水量并未增加，甚至略有降低，但封育草场的人为努力还是增加了植被覆盖度。在有的地方，因为植被的恢复，小气候也得到改善。

一个典型的例子便是位于宁夏东部的盐池县。盐池位于宁夏中部干旱带，许多村子就在毛乌素沙地边缘。那里自2000年开始实行禁牧、苜蓿种植等生态修复措施。遥感技术能够帮助人们分析区域植被变化，而监测数据显示十几年来盐池县的植被覆盖度在向好的方向发展。

依据过去的生态修复经验，在迁出地，移民政策着力于通过减少人口对资源的使用和破坏来维护生态。宁夏的计划是，退出了人和地，就要对土地实行封禁管护，而在少数有条件的地方，则实施人工种林种草工程，重建稳定的林草生态系统，提高森林碳汇和水源涵养能力。

宁夏《生态移民迁出区生态修复工程规划》中说，"十二五"移民将退出土地700万亩，占迁出区土地总面积的12.4%。这份规划认为：迁出区处于西北重要的水源涵养、水土保持和防风固沙生态功能区，是西北东部重要的生态屏障，因此修复和保护这里的生态尤为重要。

人退草进，此消彼长。

在西吉其他的村里，那些已经搬出了一年以上的地方，苜蓿和不知名的野草已经在暖暖的空气里露芽。

新村困境

留守在芦子窝的人还在等着政府"最后通牒"，村子越发冷清，过一天是一天。而在宁夏的另一头，新村庙庙湖已经是人声鼎沸。

在距离黄河岸仅仅数公里的毛乌素沙地边缘，成百上千的房屋和院子从一片荒芜的黄沙中被建造起来，它们的外观差别之小，以至于那些最早的居民，即便搬来大半年的光景，也常常要靠数门牌号来辨认方向。

庙庙湖位于宁夏北部石嘴山市平罗县，与内蒙古鄂尔多斯市鄂托克前旗相邻，由银川驱车向北100公里，再跨过黄河便是。按照规划，它一共接纳西吉移民1414户、共计6800人。

2014年初，清真寺还只是在彩钢房里的临时设施，针对女人和小孩的学习班已经办起来了，念诵《古兰经》的声音一阵阵传来。阿訇马应成说，搬来后一些农民无事可做，有的人连宗教基本常识都不懂，这一组织起来，对村秩序也有好处。

马国清的新家在庙庙湖七区，因为房屋对于三代同堂的家庭来说太小，他决定在扩建屋子前让父母先搬进来。

他的母亲马翠芳搬来了几个月，却因为不识字也不认得几个邻居，轻易不敢离开村子。阳光好的时候，她背着手在四分大的院子里来回踱步。

"心里闷得慌呗，就在院子里走。"她说。

"为什么闷得慌？"

"老家有牛可以养，这里什么事都没有。"她答。

可是这些话马翠芳都忍着不告诉儿子。荒漠上的风一吹，丈夫马炳武的手背上开裂了，过去多少年在山村里都没有过，也没告诉孩子。

嘴上一个劲儿说好，儿子打电话来的时候，马炳武却忍不住在电话一头偷偷抹眼泪，他总惦念着家里的牛和农田，用他自己的话说，他在这里变成了"没用的人"。

按照移民安置政策，政府分给村民的耕地应为人均一亩。但是这些耕地在移民还未入住前由乡政府承包给外来的企业。平罗县移民局解释说，这是考虑到统一经营有更大的收益，这些收益也会还之于民。

马炳武骑着借来的自行车到菜市场转了一圈，什么也没买，回来闷声的说，"这里的菜比我们西吉贵着呢！土豆家里5毛，这里一块（每公斤）！"

年纪大的人高兴不起来，年纪轻的人也在担忧自己的未来。临近入春招工的季节，这种焦虑像传染病一样在年轻人中蔓延开来。村支书的家里挤满了人，都是来打听招工信息和反映各种困难的。"政府把我们搬过来了，可现在我们就觉得像一盘散棋，不知道该怎么走了！"不知道谁在人群中冒出这样一句话，引起人附和。

庙庙湖村委会的招贴栏提供附近工业园区的招工信息，却鲜有人看。这一天早上，平罗县劳动就业服务局派车组织村里人到周边的工业园区参观，28岁的马兵匆匆的吃好早饭准备加入他们。

马兵从小没有念书，招贴栏对他来说就是天书。2004年他参加西吉县的劳务输出，被介绍到北京郊区家禽屠宰场上班，在那里他和未来的妻子李虎叶相识。2010年他们的孩子到了要上学的年纪，夫妻两就回了老家。

马兵和李虎叶都羡慕那些能在北京生活的人。他们在屠宰场的时候，每天要工作10个小时，连周末和节假日也不能休息。工资高的时候，一个人每月赚2500块钱。虽然在北京住了这么多年，但他们到市区的时候寥寥可数，"就看过一次天安门，出门还要花钱，得省着点。"李虎叶说。

因为没有自来水，他们结婚时买的洗衣机在芦子窝从没用过，在新村总算派上用场。马虎叶兴致勃勃的往洗衣机里倒水，依照提示设定洗涤时间，机器转了几次，衣服却洗不干净。

串门的人提醒她水放得太少，马虎叶这算是第一次知道洗衣机的正确用法，她自己都乐了。"我不知道要这些水！"她说。

马兵跟着政府组织的参观队伍到了工业园区，负责就业安置的工作人员开始说园区如何如何好，跟他们的老家西吉比起来工业是如何发展，马兵只是看着那些高大的烟囱沉默不语。他听说在园区找工作也不容易，他的很多同龄人甚至根本没想过有一天能进入工厂。虽然他看不懂，但是村委会提供的就业信息上绝大部分岗位都注明要高中或同等以上学历，能够读书认字是最起码的要求。

一份由平罗县劳动就业服务局提供的庙庙湖移民调查表揭示了这里存在的问题。根据这份调查表，整个村已经移民的6026人中拥有高中及以上文化程度的仅有86人，占总人口1.4%，其中有很多是在读的学生，文盲1088人，占总人口18%。根据平罗县2014年政府工作报告，平罗拥有精细化工、多元合金等产业园，享有国家"十佳最具竞争力市县"、"最具投资潜力中小城市百强县市"的头衔，这里2013年的地区生产总值125亿元，是西吉41.5亿元的3倍还多，平罗的经济依赖于工业发展而非农业。

劳动力市场的人才结构矛盾并不是平罗所遇到的个案。根据银川市政府2013年6月对移民家庭的统计，在"十二五"期间已经搬迁的26017人中，文盲、半文盲占搬迁总人数的15%，初高中以下文化占78%；大中专仅占搬迁总人数的7%。在整个宁夏自治区，2013年，15岁及以上人口文盲率为7.74%，人均受教育年限8.56年，这高出于2010年第六次全国人口普查的文盲率4.08%（15岁及以上不识字的人占总人口比率）。

"一方面是招工企业找不到合适的人，另一方面很多移民又找不到合适的工作，县政府也组织了很多培训，关键还是要移民转变观念，提高自身的素质。"平罗县劳动就业服务局的王兴龙说。

因为文化程度偏低，有的移民不得不从事任务繁重或是高污染的工作。在庙庙湖附近的移民村三棵柳，48岁的移民明耀虎就不得不在镁厂从事高强度的工作。"一天下来浑身都痛，不吃安乃近（解热镇痛药）睡不了觉。"他说。

在这个村子，一些移民安置房空闲下来，因为在新环境里找不到工作，有的人回到老家投靠亲戚；少数的空房又很快被从更偏远地方来的移民承租下来，带着对新生活的计划和向往。

但是，迄今没有一份官方的统计显示有多少移民返贫或返回原住地。在学术界，政府采取切断移民与原居住地联系的"断根"方式却引发了争议。中国社会科学院城市与展与环境研究所博士后孟慧新在考察了气候移民案例后说，人口流动是现代社会的重要特征，宁夏的移民规划对移民迁入和迁出行动的管制，不认可移民通过流动进行的自发性调适，使得移民定居和就业的不稳定与社会保障的缺失互相强化。"如果移民不能适应新的生产生活方式，适应气候变化的目标也难以实现。"她补充道。

宁夏"十二五"移民规划里提出让移民"搬得出、稳得住、能致富"的口号。但是由于就业市场的供需矛盾存在，宁夏移民局副局长郭建繁承认，要真正让移民稳得住，仍然是考验决策者的难题。

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当偏房的屋顶被七手八脚掀落的时候，马国清一家新的生活就要仓促开始了。他只是拿到一个有地址有门牌的新房钥匙，而对新家是什么样一无所知。那天是2013年12月清冷的一天，政府雇来的搬迁车队停在村口，此时距离人们得到确切搬家通知不过两天，大多数人都只能像他那样象征性的收拾几样家具：床、柜子，几件衣物和一袋土豆。就这样，浩浩荡荡的搬家队伍从宁夏南部山区向北部平原出发，留下处处是残缺旧屋的村庄。 ...

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Why the conversation about climate change and migration needs to change

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Why the conversation about climate change and migration needs to change

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The article aims to show how the mainstream narrative regarding climate change and migration have been framed in a highly negative and exaggerated manner.

The piece also emphasizes the necessity to shift to a new conversation that reflects the historical and structural contexts affecting environmental migration and its implication to the Global North.

Questions:

Why the conversation about climate change and migration needs to change?

Why has the narrative been framed in such an exaggerated and negative way?

What we can focus on instead to create a new conversation?

Anudari Gunbaatar

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BOSTON, United States

If you haven't seen the projections, you've probably still absorbed the gist of them: At some point in the not-too-distant future an astronomical number of people will likely be displaced by climate change. Estimates range from 140 million to 1.2 billion by 2050.

For some, these vast numbers conjure cataclysmic images of hordes of desperate people escaping climate hotspots in the Global South, clamouring to cross borders into Europe and the United States. And they're often accompanied by an important caveat: The worst version of this nightmare scenario can still be avoided if high-polluting countries act now to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

It's a clear and evocative narrative that dovetails neatly with fears and anger about irregular migration in many Global North countries. The only problem is it's riddled with inaccuracy and xenophobic bias - and it has also proven ineffective as a motivator for climate action. Even so, it seems to be increasingly accepted by many as a matter of fact.

"People don't make the distinction of understanding migrating to where, which is a very important question," says Amali Tower, the founder of the NGO Climate Refugees. "It doesn't even matter, because all they hear is, 'They're coming here', when they are not."

A more nuanced picture

From sea level rise and desertification to increased drought and more severe storms, the effects of the climate crisis are already real, menacing, and evermore apparent in day-to-day life. A report next week by the UN-convened Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is expected to give the most worrying assessment yet of these impacts.

It can be tempting to draw a direct line between the effects of climate change and the ever-growing number of displaced people around the world. But the relationship between climate change and displacement is, in reality, more complex. "It can be difficult to isolate people who are solely moving as a result of climate change," Joseph Kofi Teye, director of the Centre for Migration Studies at the University of Ghana, said in a recent interview with The New Humanitarian.

"Climate change has always been one of the drivers of migration, but it doesn't act alone," he explained. "It interacts with other social and economic factors... [and] it also interacts with political factors, such as conflicts."

"It has been over-dramatised, how [climate change] has been linked to international migration,"

There is also a general misconception about who actually migrates, according to Kees van der Geest, a researcher at the United Nations University's Institute for Environment and Human Security.

The assumption tends to be that people who cross borders are destitute, van der Geest explained. But international migration is expensive, and those who undertake long and arduous irregular journeys toward Europe and the United States tend to be from cities and to have resources, some level of education, and connections to diaspora communities in the countries they're trying to reach.

"It's typically the poorer segments of a population, the more rural inhabitants, that are mostly affected by the impacts of climate change on their livelihoods, and they usually lack the means to migrate," said van der Geest, adding that this could potentially change in the future as access to information and migration options evolve.

Read more → Immobility: The neglected flipside of the climate displacement crisis

For now, however, climate-influenced migration tends to be overwhelmingly rural to urban, and within - not between - countries. Even when climate migrants do cross borders, they tend to do so regionally, not from the Global South to the Global North. "It has been over-dramatised, how [climate change] has been linked to international migration," said Teye.

A different conversation?

The over-dramatised narrative about climate change and international migration was initially supposed to serve a purpose. Many of the historically high-polluting countries that need to drastically reduce emissions to prevent the worst impacts of climate change also happen to be Global North countries that are keen on keeping asylum seekers and migrants out. Because of this overlap, some researchers may have initially thought that studying the impacts of climate change on migration would contribute to greater concern and action on the topic, according to van der Geest.

The response, however, has not been what was hoped for.

"When people hear about millions, or tens of millions, or hundreds of millions of people being forced to flee their homes because of climate change, the reaction unfortunately is not that people would fight against the impacts of climate change, but that countries and continents - like Europe and the US - would just fortify their borders to [prevent] those people from coming in," van der Geest said. "We are now seeing that these numbers do not have that kind of positive impact on better climate policy, but rather [lead to] more strict migration policy."

The counterpoint to the over-dramatised narrative, according to Tower, should not be to de-emphasise climate migration, because it is still taking place, just mostly internally and regionally.

"Communities that emit less and bear the brunt of the impact of emissions and are likely to be uprooted."

Even though it's difficult to draw a direct line between climate change and people showing up en masse to the borders of Europe and the United States, high-polluting countries in the Global North still bear a historical and disproportionate responsibility for the very real impacts of climate change that are already making people's lives more precarious in hotspots around the world. "Your [emissions are] destabalising these countries, these regions. This is an unjust situation," Tower said.

"Our responsibility for emissions and our capacity to influence the reduction of emissions globally is very limited, but the consequences and the impact that climate change is having on our territories, on our social and ecosystem, is huge," said Adrián Martínez Blanco, director of the Costa Rican NGO La Ruta Del Cima.

But funding to help low-income countries mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change has been slow to materialise. In 2009, high-income countries pledged to provide $100 billion a year in financing to low-income countries for this purpose by 2020. But 2020 has come and gone, and high-income countries have yet to deliver on that promise. At COP26 last year, the United States and the EU also blocked the creation of a separate fund to address the growing costs of losses and damages incurred by countries in the Global South due to climate change.

Read more → What do rich countries owe the rest of the world?

"Those countries that are responsible for generating this crisis are doing everything they can to avoid dealing with this issue and to avoid responsibility," Martínez said. "That's basically the worst part of this."

For Faisal Garba, a sociology lecturer and migration expert at the University of Cape Town in South Africa, the question of how to address climate displacement and migration must begin with an understanding of global inequalities.

"Communities that emit less [and] bear the brunt of the impact of emissions and are likely to be uprooted - these are the people that are likely not even allowed to move in the first place," Garba said. "The climate crisis is not a standalone issue; it's a product of a long history of exploitation, of inequality, of accumulation."

According to van der Geest, instead of trying to limit the mobility of people displaced by the impacts of climate change, the focus should be on enabling those facing its worst fallout to have more choices about how to respond - including when it comes to migration.

"The more forced a migration movement is, the more likely it is that the effects are negative," he said. "The more [that] people have a choice in where they go, when they go, with whom they go... the more likely it is that the outcomes would be positive for themselves, for their relatives at home, and for the places they go to."
Edited by Andrew Gully.

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Why the conversation about climate change and migration needs to change

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BOSTON, United States If you haven't seen the projections, you've probably still absorbed the gist of them: At some point in the not-too-distant future an astronomical number of people will likely be displaced by climate change. Estimates range from 140 million to 1.2 billion by 2050.

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Climate Migration: Indian kids find hope in a new language

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Climate Migration: Indian kids find hope in a new language

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The article tries to show the experience of climate migration by the perspective of the migrants. Therefore the experience of the family Islam with father Jaidul, mother Pinjira, son Raju and daughter Jerifa is shown. Because of severe floods they migrated from the countryside in the North East of India to the South to the city of Bangalore.

The article shows the difficulties of the family Islam not only migrate to a new place, but also to learn a new language in that place.

The two children learn the language relatively fast, especially younger children or when there is a support system. The success of learning the language helps the children to integrate and it is also a personal success and motivates them.

However, it has to be mentioned that the drop-out rate from school for migrants children is significantly higher.

For the parents it is a more difficult situation as learning the language is more difficult for them for various reasons. They try to find jobs in the informal service sector and care a lot for their children. The well-being of the children is central to them.

The article answers the question:
What is the motivation for people affected by climate change to migrate and why do they choose the places they are going to? How is the experience for children, especially if they have to learn a new language? How is the experience for the parents? What kinds of jobs do they find and how do they care for their children?

Julian Tito

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BENGALURU, India (AP) - Eight-year-old Jerifa Islam only remembers the river being angry, its waters gnawing away her family's farmland and waves lashing their home during rainy season flooding. Then one day in July of 2019, the mighty Brahmaputra River swallowed everything.

Her home in the Darrang district of India's Assam state was washed away. But the calamity started Jerifa and her brother, Raju 12, on a path that eventually led them to schools nearly 2,000 miles (3,218 kilometers) away in Bengaluru, where people speak the Kannada language that is so different from the children's native Bangla.

Those early days were difficult. Classes at the free state-run schools were taught in Kannada, and Raju couldn't understand a word of the instruction.

But he persisted, reasoning that just being in class was better than the months in Assam when submerged roads kept him away from school for months. "Initially I didn't understand what was happening, then with the teacher explaining things to me slowly, I started learning," he said.

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EDITOR'S NOTE: This story is part of an ongoing series exploring the lives of people around the world who have been forced to move because of rising seas, drought, searing temperatures and other things caused or exacerbated by climate change.

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The children were born in a low-lying village, flanked by the Himalayas and the river. Like many parts of northeastern India, it was no stranger to heavy rains and naturally occurring floods.

But their father, Jaidul Islam, 32, and mother Pinjira Khatun, 28, knew something had changed. The rains had become more erratic, flash floods more frequent and unpredictable. They were among the estimated 2.6 million people in the Assam state affected by floods the year they decided to move to Bengaluru, a city of over 8 million known as India's Silicon Valley.

No one in their family had ever moved so far from home, but any lingering doubts were outweighed by dreams of a better life and a good education for their children. The couple spoke a little Hindi - India's most widely used language - and hoped that would be enough to get by in the city, where they knew nearby villagers had found work.

The two packed what little they could salvage into a large suitcase they hoped to someday fill with new belongings. "We left home with nothing. Some clothes for the kids, a mosquito net, and two towels. That was it," said Islam.

The suitcase is now filling up with school exercise books - and the parents, neither with any formal education, said their lives center on ensuring their kids have more opportunities. "My children will not face the same problems that I did," the father said.

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The family fled the low-lying Darrang district, which receives heavy rainfall and natural flooding. But rising temperatures with climate change have made monsoons erratic, with the bulk of the season's rainfall falling in days, followed by dry spells. The district is among the most vulnerable to climate change in India, according to a New-Delhi based thinktank.

Floods and droughts often occur simultaneously, said Anjal Prakash, a research director at India's Bharti Institute of Public Policy. The natural water systems in the Himalayan region that people had relied on for millennia are now "broken," he said.

In the past decade, Prakash said, the number of climate migrants in India has been growing. And over the next 30 years, 143 million people worldwide will likely be uprooted by rising seas, drought and unbearable heat, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported this year.

India estimates it has around 139 million migrants, but unclear is how many had to move because of climate change. By 2050, cities like Bengaluru are predicted to become the preferred destination for the nearly 40 million people in South Asia forced by climate change to leave their homes, according to a 2021 World Bank report.

"Especially if you've aspirations for your second generation, you have to move," said Prakash.

In the suburban area where Jerifa and her family now live, most people are from Assam state, many forced to migrate because of climate change and dreaming of a better future: There is Shah Jahan, 19, a security guard who wants to be a YouTube influencer. There is Rasana Begum, a 47-year-old cleaner who hopes her two daughters will become nurses. Their homes, too, were washed away in floods.

Pinjira and Jaidul have both found work with a contractor who provides housekeeping staff to the offices of U.S. and Indian tech companies. Jaidul earns $240 a month, and his wife about $200 - compared to the $60 he'd made from agriculture. Raju's new private school fees cost a third of their income, and the family saves nothing. But, for the first time in years, in their new home - a 10 feet by 12 feet (3 meters by 3.6 meters) room with a tin roof and sporadic electricity - they feel optimistic about the future.

"I like that I can work here. Back home, there was no work for women. ... I am happy," said Pinjira.

For now, Raju dreams of doing well at his new school. He has benefitted from a year-long program run by Samridhi Trust, a non-profit that helps migrant children get back to the education system by teaching them basic Kannada, English, Hindi and math. Teachers test students every two months to help them transition into state-run free schools that instruct in Kannada - or in some cases, like Raju's, English.

"My favorite subject is math," said the 12-year-old, adding that his favorite time of day was the bus ride to school. "I love looking out of the window and seeing the city and all the big buildings."

His sister, who wants to be a lawyer someday, has picked up Kannada faster than he has and chats happily with new classmates at her nearby government school, switching easily between her native and adopted tongues.

Their parents work alternate shifts to ensure somebody is home in case of emergencies. "They are young and can get into trouble, or get hurt," said Khatun. "And we don't know anybody here."

Their anxiety isn't unique. Many parents worry about safety when they send their children to schools in unfamiliar neighborhoods, said Puja, who uses only one name and coordinates Samridhi Trust's after-school program.

Children of migrants often tend to drop out, finding classes too hard. But Raju considers his school's "discipline" refreshing after chaotic life in a poor neighborhood.

His mother misses her family and speaks with them over the phone. "Maybe I'll go back during their holidays," she said.

Her husband does not want to return to Assam - where floods killed nine people in their district this year - until the children are in a higher grade. "Maybe in 2024 or 2025," he said.

Every afternoon, the father waits patiently, scanning the street for Raju's yellow bus. When home, the boy regales him with stories about his new school. He says he now knows how to say "water" in Kannada, but that none of his new classmates know what a "real flood" looks like.

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Follow Aniruddha Ghosal in Twitter: @aniruddhg1

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Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP's climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Climate Migration: Indian kids find hope in a new language

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BENGALURU, India (AP) - Eight-year-old Jerifa Islam only remembers the river being angry, its waters gnawing away her family's farmland and waves lashing their home during rainy season flooding. Then one day in July of 2019, the mighty Brahmaputra River swallowed everything.

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Climate-related migration is on the rise in North America as extreme weather prompts people to move

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Climate-related migration is on the rise in North America as extreme weather prompts people to move

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Questions:
- What is a 'climate refugee' and what are the dimensions of cross-border climate migration?
- How are North American countries affected by climate change and (im)mobilities connected with it?
- How are Californian cities trying to become more resilient to extreme weather events?

(Better) Research Questions:
- When and in what contexts did the term 'climate refugee' originate? What are the meanings different groups of people associate with it? What views do environmental migrants have on the term? How do they refer to themselves?
- How are North American countries affected by climate change and (im)mobilities connected with it? (leave it as it is)
- What approaches do local governments in California employ for adapting to extreme weather events? Who benefits from these approaches? Which perspectives do they leave out?

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Every year, millions of people are forced to leave their homes due to a variety of climate or natural disasters, ranging from floods - one-third of Pakistan was inundated last summer - to droughts and topical storms.

The term "climate refugee" has entered the environmental lexicon and the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) has said there could be 1.2 billion such refugees by 2050 as the planet turns into a frying pan. The number is a guess, but perhaps not a wild one. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees says that an annual average of 21.5 million people have been displaced by extreme weather events since 2008, though it's an open question whether global warming specifically can take the blame.

Typically, we consider climate-induced movements - "disaster displacement" or "cross-border disaster displacement," to use the technical terms - to be a southern hemisphere phenomenon, especially in the poorest countries that cannot afford climate mitigation and adaptation programs. But the weather is changing everywhere and we are seeing the start of climate-related exoduses not just to North America but within it.

Oakland, on the east side of San Francisco Bay, in California, is a case in point. The city sent a small delegation to COP27 in Egypt and considers itself at the forefront of the continental climate crisis.

Daniel Hamilton, the city's sustainability and resilience officer - an ever more serious job as California heats up and gets whacked by climate disasters - said in an interview at COP27 that climate is at least partly responsible for the net exodus from his city. "We are seeing more people leaving Oakland than coming in," he said. "We think that climate is influencing their departures and that is what we are hearing, especially from people with health issues like asthma."

Precise data on Oakland's climate-related exodus are not available, since climate can be one of several reasons to hit the road. Job opportunities, work-life balance, cheaper housing and the better ability to work remotely are among the factors that push families out of big, crowded, expensive cities.

But more and more reports, studies and media interviews with those leaving Oakland and other Californian cities suggest that climate is playing a bigger role than ever in the decision to flee. A 2021 survey by the academic journal Climatic Change found that 57 per cent of American respondents said that "weather or climate-related issues" would influence their decision to move in the next decade.

In America, the urge to flee appears especially acute in California, which alone in 2020, during a record heat wave, had 8,000 wildfires, a few of them deadly. The infamous 2018 Camp wildfire in Butte County, about 250 kilometres north of Oakland, which was triggered by a faulty electrical transmission line and accelerated by the region's extreme drought, killed 85 people, covered more than 600 square kilometres, destroyed the towns of Paradise and Concow and burnt some 18,000 buildings and homes to the ground.

California is getting hotter and drier, as are other parts of the United States and Canada. In British Columbia in 2021, more than 1,500 wildfires burned at least 8,700 square kilometres of land amid punishing heat waves and droughts. The Lytton Creek wildfire destroyed the town and left two dead.

California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment report, from 2021, reveals a potential climate horror show in the making. By the end of the century, assuming greenhouse gases continue to rise - a good assumption, given the lack of progress at the endless UN-sponsored climate conferences - the report found that the frequency of big fires (those covering more than 25,000 acres) would increase by 50 per cent, and the average area burned by 77 per cent. A third to two-thirds of California beaches "may completely erode."

Oakland itself and the rest of the San Francisco Bay area are at the forefront of the unfolding climate disasters. The same report said that the area's average annual maximum temperatures climbed by nearly 1-degree C by 2005. The sea level has risen by 20 centimetres in the last century. The 2012 to 2016 drought, which came with record low snowpack, was the worst in 1,200 years, turning forests and farmlands into tinderboxes and causing billions of dollars of economic losses in the agriculture and recreation industries.

The California Department of Finance found that 352,000 residents left the state between April, 2020, and January, 2022. It is almost certain that some of them left for climate reasons.

Oakland and other California cities are trying to make themselves more resilient and find ways to protect their citizens when disaster hits.

In Oakland, new homes in at-risk fire areas are not connected to gas lines, just the electricity grid, since gas is highly explosive. Compost is being spread in nearby forests to help the forest floors retain moisture. The city is also building "climate resilience hubs."

The first of about six of them opened last week in First Baptist Church in East Oakland. They will essentially operate as relief shelters when extreme climate or weather incidents shut down local electricity supplies. The church is equipped with solar panels connected to batteries to keep the lights on and the air conditioners running during extreme heat.

Mr. Hamilton has been talking to his counterparts in Vancouver and other big American and Canadian cities about climate migration and how it might reshape urban areas as temperatures rise. He thinks that any city has to plan for this phenomenon. "Migration pressures from climate disasters like wildfires and drought are growing more common across North America," he said. "Cities need to understand how these pressures will impact their migration patterns, and I expect planning for climate migration to become commonplace in the near future."

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Climate-related migration is on the rise in North America as extreme weather prompts people to move

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Every year, millions of people are forced to leave their homes due to a variety of climate or natural disasters, ranging from floods - one-third of Pakistan was inundated last summer - to droughts and topical storms. The term "climate refugee" has entered the environmental lexicon and the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) has said there could be 1.2 billion such refugees by 2050 as the planet turns into a frying pan.

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Canada must prepare for climate change refugees - The nation's economy may just depend on it

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Canada must prepare for climate change refugees - The nation's economy may just depend on it

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Questions:
- How will climate change alter ecosystems around the world in the next few decades and what will the implications be for the habitability of the affected places?
- In which ways will Canada be affected by these ecosystem changes due to climate change?
- What adaptation strategies will be necessary to accommodate internal as well as 'international' climate migrants in Canada?

Kassandra Friedrichs

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The nation's economy may just depend on it

With climate change rendering parts of the globe unlivable, many individuals will be forced to seek refuge in foreign countries to survive. Canada is likely to become a very sought-after geographic location for climate refugees as climate change progresses, and we should be prepared for them.

An article by the Canadian Climate Institute describes Canada as a "climate winner," meaning Canada may stand to benefit from climate change processes. Moody's Analytics projects that Canada could not only see a GDP increase of $9 billion per year but might additionally benefit from increased farmland and economic activity as a result of climate change.

However, Canada was simultaneously the 10th largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in 2019, with 737 mega tonnes of carbon dioxide. Sarah Kamal, a researcher with the Climate Migrants and Refugees Project stated the following: "when we're talking about who's being the most exposed, it's unfortunately, the people that have contributed the least." Canada is one of the largest contributors of greenhouse gasses, yet is projected to see minimal change and possible benefits because of climate change compared to equatorial countries contributing less.

In 2020, studies revealed that roughly one per cent of the globe was already "a barely livable hot zone," which could see an increase to 19 per cent by the year 2070. The remaining semi-arid regions of Guatemala that are being increasingly affected by droughts brought on by El Niño weather patterns will soon be classified as desert. This change in ecosystem, as a result, has already seen Guatemalan refugees migrating en masse to the United States.

The United States has already begun creating systems to tackle increased climate migration. In February of 2021, President Joe Biden put forth an executive order that plans to manage the influx of climate migrants. Additionally, the U.S. Congress put forth legislation which aims at creating "climate-displaced person" status representation.

As this type of migration becomes frequent, an emerging trend presents itself that shows migratory directions to the north will become increasingly common. Hundreds of millions of people is an estimate of those who could be displaced from their homes by climate change in the future. We are now in 2022 and statistics have shown that roughly 85 per cent of Earth's population has been negatively affected by climate change.

Looking at the issue on a local level, Canadians themselves have been subject to climate migration regardless of whether it's being recognized or not. Increased evacuation in summers due to wildfires and evacuations in the fall or winter due to flooding are results of climate change processes. It is also estimated that increased coastal erosion rates will occur, the prairies will experience prolonged droughts, and Arctic permafrost volumes will reduce at a greater rate in the coming years.

Although the effects seen in Canada may be less damaging than what other global locations will experience, Canada itself is not immune to change and will also suffer.

Seeing as Canada will ultimately be subject to creating relief systems for its own citizens, the creation of systems to balance the influx of potential immigrants will be crucial. To somewhat reiterate Canada's unique position during climate change: previously uninhabitable areas of the country will become more temperate. Although these changes will bring their own struggles, Canada will soon be able to expand its settlements, which could raise the country's carrying capacity.

An incredibly unfortunate component to immigration that will make these systems all the more important is the number of children involved in migration. In 2020, UNICEF reported that out of 281 million international migrants, 36 million were children under the age of 18. The Canadian Council for Refugees has additionally revealed that there is a gap between federal responsibility and provincial responsibility when it comes to separated refugee children. There are even discrepancies when trying to find a common definition of the term "separated children" in government literature.

An academic piece written by Mehrunnisa Ahmad Ali in 2006 titled "Children Alone, Seeking Refuge in Canada" represents just one of the scarce number of articles that highlight Canadian migratory issues relating to migrant children.

Reform will be crucial for Canada to be prepared for the influx of refugees that are almost guaranteed to begin showing up at its borders. Controversy such as that experienced on the Greek island of Lesbos - which saw an influx of refugees that proved to be too overwhelming for government control - can be avoided in Canada with a plan.

Reform on behalf of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) will also be necessary. In a recent CBC article, Adrian Edwards, the global spokesperson for the UNHCR, stated the following: "at present, climate factors themselves are not seen in the refugee convention as grounds for refugee status." Climate migration is real and is already occurring, which means it is time to rewrite the literal rule books for migration. By doing so it will ensure that countries feeling lesser sudden impacts from climate change are prepared.

Canada must implement systems that aim at ensuring the safe and easy integration of immigrants that are inevitably going to be arriving in the country. These systems must not solely focus on the preservation of the Canadian economy, but instead they must have the preservation of human life at their core.

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Canada must prepare for climate change refugees

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With climate change rendering parts of the globe unlivable, many individuals will be forced to seek refuge in foreign countries to survive. Canada is likely to become a very sought-after geographic location for climate refugees as climate change progresses, and we should be prepared for them.

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Climate migration: How one Alaska village resists despite threats

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Climate migration: How one Alaska village resists despite threats

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In Shishmaref, Alaska, the Indigenous Inupiat community is resisting migration despite climate threats, like rising seas, erosion, melting ice, etc., in part because they have such strong ties to the land and region.

They rely on their environment for their livelihoods and survival, including hunting, arts & crafts, and education.

The Inupiat people have maintained their traditional lifestyle for thousands of years, but it is threatened by climate change.

Question:

Why doesn't the community living in Shishmaref, Alaska, migrate, given the threats of climate change? What is tying them to their environment?

Taylor Black

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Climate migration: How one Alaska village resists despite threats

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Climate change is partially to blame for the rising seas, flooding, erosion and loss of protective ice and land that are threatening Shishmaref. The situation is dire. And yet, it is only part of the story.

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Louisiana Communities Show the Many Contours of Climate Migration

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Louisiana Communities Show the Many Contours of Climate Migration

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Forced climate migration is becoming more prevalent along the US Gulf Coast, and it both disproportionately impacts BIPOC folks and exacerbates existing social inequalities.

Community organizers are increasingly advocating for climate-displaced people, providing resources, and increasing community resiliency.

Currently, there is no legal framework that includes climate change as a driver for migration, making the pathway for many international climate refugees to gain asylum more difficult.

We must facilitate migration with dignity for those who must move, and support those who want to stay, too.

Question:

What are community organizers doing in light of increased climate-induced migration along the US Gulf Coast?

What are the legal hurdles to climate refugees seeking asylum?

How can we support climate migrants?

Taylor Black

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Since he purchased his 311-acre property in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, in 1998, John Allaire has watched 60 acres of it disappear. He has witnessed a series of climate disasters rapidly wash away Louisiana's coastline, devastating already-overlooked communities like his.

In 2005, he lost his home to Hurricane Rita. He applied for federal assistance to rebuild his home but was rejected. Instead, he was compensated with a temporary trailer, which he then lost to Hurricane Ike in 2008. He has been moving between Texas and Lafayette, Louisiana, for work since then.

Climate events like these are becoming more frequent and higher in magnitude across the U.S. Gulf and Coastal South, and they're displacing more and more people-especially BIPOC folks, who have been disproportionately affected by climate change across the globe.

"We have to acknowledge that disaster outcomes exacerbate sociopolitical inequalities," says Sara McTarnaghan, senior research associate at Metropolitan Housing and Communities Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Underserved communities are already at a disadvantage from the inception of a climate event, and the institutions set up to provide relief often aren't accessible or relevant to their particular needs.

In the aftermath of the 2020 Hurricanes Laura and Delta, for example, Allaire says the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) came and did an assessment but offered no direct relief. "It was all community organizations," Allaire says.

In 2021, 59.1 million people were internally displaced worldwide by the climate crisis, and there will be more than 200 million climate migrants by 2050. Yet institutionalized protections for climate-displaced people are not guaranteed.

In the U.S., the national apparatuses for disaster and displacement management-the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Department of Housing and Urban Development-are marred by discrimination scandals and perpetually stuck in the dysfunctional dynamics of determining the jurisdictions of state versus federal government. Globally, climate migrants can't be granted asylum and have no legal protections under international law.

Operating outside the limitations of these institutions, community organizers are tackling climate displacement from all angles-advocating for climate-displaced people, providing them with resources, and making their communities more climate-resilient.

The Limits of Institutional Support

Right before Hurricane Ida struck his community in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, in 2021, Justin Fitch of the United Houma Nation-the largest state-recognized tribe in Louisiana-made the decision to stay in his home with his wife, and used the family's funds to have their children stay in Texas, away from the storm.

Fitch is an activist who works for the nonprofit Healthy Gulf and says that those hit hardest by climate disasters and who most need to leave are usually BIPOC like him. "People do not have an extra $4,000, $5,000 to leave," Fitch says. "That's the reason I didn't leave."

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, Fitch says residents turned to groups like Gulf South Rising and The Gulf Coast Center for Law & Policy (now Taproot Earth) for help. Mutual aid can help mitigate some of the financial stress that affects homeowners dealing with buyouts, or help unhoused people who have lost access to shelters and resource centers impacted by climate events. Hotel assistance, for example, can provide a person with a few days of shelter, but it requires an application and is often an outright cost to be reimbursed later. That makes this option out of reach for many.

To combat this exclusion, Roishetta Ozane has been helping temporarily shelter people in disaster-prone areas. Her organization, The Vessel Project of Louisiana, put an estimated 300 people in hotels across Louisiana, Texas, and Mississippi during the winter storm in 2021.

"I started Vessel because I realized a lot of organizations had a lot of red tape," Ozane says.

Instead, her organization meets folks where they're at: no demands for documents or proof. It works to provide emergency shelter, food, oxygen tanks, and document recovery. It even helps folks apply for more traditional forms of aid.

In her work, Ozane has assisted undocumented people, unhoused people, and other marginalized folks who are sidelined by restrictive assistance. Her no-questions-asked policy is key to establishing trust while providing support.

The approach is based on her own experience: Faced with a series of climate events and the pandemic, Ozane struggled to support herself and her children after their home became unlivable in the aftermath of Hurricane Laura in 2020. She tried to obtain a mobile trailer from FEMA but didn't receive it until a year later. So she knows how hard it can be and how individualized the struggles are.

"I can't tell you what's an emergency to you," Ozane says.

Around 7,500 people in Louisiana live in FEMA's interim mobile shelters, many of whom have received temporary housing assistance since 2021. Some people are there because they have nowhere to go, others because they were renters before the storms, and still others are facing an unstable housing market that is particularly tumultuous in a climate-unstable environment.

Others are awaiting assistance to rebuild or relocate. Those who choose to relocate may find themselves in an endless web of insurance companies, lawyers, government officials, and protocols. FEMA runs buyout programs that allow residents in disaster-prone areas (particularly flooding) to sell their homes to the government and relocate to areas with lower risk.

Buyouts can be risky, they require extensive paperwork, the requirements are inaccessible for many, and there's no guarantee of success. The median wait time from the aftermath of the disaster to the completion of the buyout can be as long as five years. And oftentimes, people are pursuing buyouts for uninhabitable homes, which means this effort is on top of finding a place to live.

Other residents are shut out of traditional systems altogether, including homeowners without insurance, homeowners with heirs' property, renters, and undocumented folks. These populations don't typically have access to a dignified move that utilizes traditional modes of assistance, though their immediate needs are still ever-present.

Thirteen months after Ida made landfall, Fitch says, "I still have friends and family that are homeless, living in FEMA trailers."

Lacking a Legal Framework

While folks in climate-unstable areas are making decisions in reaction to climate change, "climate change might not be how people conceive of their experience," says Ama Francis, climate displacement project strategist for the International Refugee Assistance Project, "even as they are experiencing climate change."

In many parts of the world, people still don't consider their negative climate experiences as catalysts for their migration. Unfortunately, neither does the law.

"One of the constraints that I work with is that people need to fit into frameworks to access a legal benefit," Francis says. "We have asylum law, for example, and for that framework, you have to experience harm or persecution from a human."

Currently, there is no legal framework that denotes climate change as a driver for migration. Not only does this make a pathway to asylum for climate migrants cumbersome, but it also creates difficulties for climate migrants trying to receive resettlement assistance.

Part of systemic advocacy like Francis' is to bring awareness to this fact. So, while the International Refugee Assistance Project champions the expansion of temporary protected status, new Department of Justice opinions, and other legal recompenses to help climate migrants, the organization is also working to document the experiences of those displaced by climate change and sociopolitical events surrounding it. These stories can then inform policy recommendations.

For this reason, equitable access to climate education is imperative to address climate displacement. It enables people to correlate their experiences in the larger context of the global issue. In the context of the U.S. South (and the Global South at large), anti-climate-change propaganda is rampant, even as these communities are impacted by its effects.

Resource extraction and manufacturing put food on the table. Talk of climate change signals a possible disruption to even basic needs being met, especially to those who don't speak the "highfalutin language" in which these issues are explained in policies.

"That's the case in impoverished communities that have been exploited," Rev. Michael Malcom of The People's Justice Council explains. "They just want to get out of [poverty]."

Speaking to folks' priorities is the best way to get people to engage with climate change as a concept. Local southern organizations, like the Partnership for Southern Equity, are running programs to combat the effects of the climate crisis on public health, focusing on communities that have been excluded from equitable access to health care. The People's Justice Council promotes solar buybacks and weatherization programs, and the Athens Land Trust's invasive-plant removal program has encouraged buy-in from communities. The programs are economically advantageous while making people environmentally conscious.

Organizers are already seeing the benefits of climate education in their efforts to mobilize communities: The People's Justice Council received an estimated 90,000 signatures on its "No Dirty Deals" collaborative petition to reject the contradictory climate actions in the Inflation Reduction Act that it says would disproportionately impact already marginalized communities.

Standing With Community

After Hurricane Ike destroyed John Allaire's FEMA trailer in 2008, he was lucky enough to have the means to relocate temporarily. Since 2020, John has returned and is working toward building a home on his property in Cameron. Allaire talks of the good life he and his family have there, close to nature and his community of friends- a community he refuses to give up on.

Discussions on climate displacement often focus on the simple facts of who leaves or stays, and they exclude the real connections people have to their homes-their ties to the land, their livelihoods, and their communities. The overarching goal of efforts to address climate displacement, therefore, should be to provide a range of possible solutions: solutions to curb climate change, solutions to help facilitate safe and dignified migration, and solutions to support those who stay in climate-unstable areas.

"Some people do need to move, and we want to facilitate and ensure that people do so with dignity," Francis says. "For some people, the right to stay is important, and we need to support that as well."

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Louisiana Communities Show the Many Contours of Climate Migration

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Since he purchased his 311-acre property in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, in 1998, John Allaire has watched 60 acres of it disappear. He has witnessed a series of climate disasters rapidly wash away Louisiana's coastline, devastating already-overlooked communities like his. In 2005, he lost his home to Hurricane Rita.

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Climate Migration: Filipino families to flee amid typhoons

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Climate Migration: Filipino families to flee amid typhoons

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5 million people were displaced from their homes after the Haiyan Typhoon in Philippines in 2013. After the disaster, government announced a 3.79 billion dollars of reconstruction project. However, reconstruction was not easy for this impoverished country. Lots of people died, people lost their beloved ones and survivals lived in very bad conditions for months.

Question: Is it fair that people in some regions of the world are exposed to extensive amount of natural disasters, although they do not result these disasters?

Possible research question: How does the level of economic development of a country effect the vulnerability of people against natural disasters?

Kemal Burç Avcı

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MICHAEL CASEY, JOEAL CALUPITAN and AARON FAVILA

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Climate Migration: Filipino families to flee amid typhoons

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TACLOBAN, Philippines (AP) — After Typhoon Haiyan’s towering waves flattened scores of Philippines villages, Jeremy Garing spent days helping with recovery from the historic storm that left more than 7,300 people dead or missing and inflicted billions of dollars in damage.

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Climate migrants flee Iraq’s parched rural south, but cities offer no refuge

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Climate migrants flee Iraq’s parched rural south, but cities offer no refuge

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The United Nations describes Iraq as the fifth most vulnerable country to the climate change. In the Southern part of Iraq people cannot cultivate the land because of the extreme heat. People sell their livestock in rural and move to big cities, such as Basra, for their survival. After their migration, they live in suburbs of the city where there is no water nor electricity and they are not able to access schools and hospitals. The economic situation is also already very bad for locals, and they think that migration makes it even worse.
Question: Do the interactions of locals and migrants differ depending on the society?

Possible research question: How does the economic situation of the destination country affect the relationship between locals and migrants?

Kemal Burç Avcı

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BASRA, Iraq - What happens when the land dries up?

The world is facing this question; Iraq is already learning the answers.

First the farmers and the fishermen try to stay. Then, one by one, they reach their breaking point. Migration starts slowly, but the exodus to towns and cities soon swells, and as temperatures rise, so do tensions.

The United Nations describes Iraqas the fifth-most-vulnerable country to climate change. Temperatures have increased by 1.8 degrees Celsius (3.2 degrees Fahrenheit) in three decades,according to Berkeley Earth, well above the global average,and in the summers, the mercury now regularly hits 50 Celsius (122 Fahrenheit). The heat is burning crops and desiccating marshes. As upstream dams in Turkey and Iran weaken the flows of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, a salty tide is creeping north from the Persian Gulf, poisoning the land - and the jobs it once created.

In Iraq, especially the south, the changing climate is forcing families to sell off their livestock and pack up for urban centers such as the region's largest city, Basra, in search of jobs and better services.

But they find little welcome here.

When asked recently about the new arrivals, one Basra shopkeeper frowned in disapproval. "We don't get involved with those people," he said.

Embedded in Basra's troubles is a warning: As hotter, more-crowded cities become the future of a warming world, a lack of preparedness will only exacerbate the discontent already fraying the social fabric.

Basra was once one of Iraq's jewels, a thriving trade hub where the 14th-century traveler Ibn Battuta observed: "No place on earth excels it in quantity of palm groves." More recently, its freshwater canals and elegant walkways drew comparisons to Venice.

But decades of U.S.-backed sanctions and war, combined with the weight of corruption and neglect, have left Basra's infrastructure unable to adequately support the 2 millionpeople the city already houses - let alone the rising tide of newcomers.

Oil powers Iraq's economy, and Basra is at the heart of where most of it is produced, but little of that money seems to trickle down to its inhabitants. Swaths of the city lack streetlights or paved roads. In 2018, the water supply was so polluted that it became toxic.

According to official figures, Basra province has a population of over 3 million - an increase of at least 20 percent in 10 years. And most of that growth has been in its urban areas.

Iraqi authorities have neither tried to connect a growing constellation of informal settlements in the cities to any service grid, nor taken meaningful steps to address the water mismanagement and scarcity that are causing the migration.

For longtime residents of the swelling cities, new arrivals often represent an extra strain on the already faltering infrastructure. Politicians have seized on blaming "infiltrators" - rather than their own failures - for the mess.

Crumbling crops, drying marshlands

Across rural sweeps of the south, families say their migration is existential: Any chance of survival here is evaporating with the water. In a survey by the Norwegian Refugee Council last year, nearly 40 percent of farmers across the country reported an almost total loss of their wheat crop.

With each passing summer, families try new things to buy a few more years on their land. Abandoning one crop to focus on the survival of another, or last-ditch attempts to grow new ones altogether. In the town of Abu al-Khaseeb on a recent day, Malik Ali Abdulkareem crumbled a husk from his beloved okra plants between his fingers as he nodded toward a pile of metal carcasses on the river shore.

"These boats are how we're making money now," he said. "We cut these up and we sell them as scrap, but the money ..." he trailed off. "Really, it's nothing. I have 16 people to feed."

His sunburned arms had been further scorched by the cutting torch and one friend had lost a finger. The men also knew that their supply of broken ships wasn't endless.

Social media has been awash with photos showing water buffaloes lying dead on the cracked mudflats of southern Iraq's dried-out marshlands, and Abu al-Khaseeb has been no exception. Many in this town have lost animals.

"There's no future here," farmer Ammar Jassim Mohammed said in a tone more exasperated than his friend's. "Everyone is leaving."

Accurate migration figures for the city of Basra are hard to come by, because in many ways, the newcomers live in the shadows: Their makeshift housing is built on parched land cut off from any water or electricity services, and aid groups say they are less likely to have access to the city's schools or health infrastructure.

In one recent survey, researchers from the United Nations' International Organization for Migration found that 12 percent of residents were newcomers who had settled in Basra over the past decade, mostly because of water scarcity and a lack of economic opportunities. The number is even higher in other southern Iraqi cities, such as Shatrah and Amarah.

Although measures such as better irrigation management, a hydraulic dam and a water treatment plant have been proposed to alleviate the region's water crisis, officials say there aren't enough funds.

"The ministries are neither serious nor fast. We've been discussing that dam since 2009," said Dergham al-Ajwadi, deputy governor of Basra province.

Figures compiled by the South Basra Environmental Directorate suggest that water degradation in the province cost Iraq $400 million in lost animals, palm trees and crops in 2018 alone.

And as temperatures keep climbing, the flight from the countryside is only accelerating.

"The families bring blocks and plastic ceilings and then they build," said Kadhim Atshan, who oversees Dour al-Qiyada, a sprawling shantytown in Basra city built by waves of migration. "But then they find there aren't jobs, there's no services. They have to rely on themselves."

On a baking hot night in the city's densely packed Hayyaniyah district, 45-year-old Raed Awdeh was at a loss as to how. He said he had moved to Basra the week before, but although his family had a roof over their heads, they had no idea what came next. "We don't know how to settle," he said, picking nervously at his thumbnail. The family of six would depend on his ability to find construction work, but he'd already suffered heatstroke on the job.

"We're suffocating," he said. "I'm finding work maybe one day out of seven. How are we going to manage here?"

But all across town, longtime residents had the same worries.

Qusay Ali, 40, said he had worked for the state oil company for three months before his job, along with hundreds of others, was terminated.

Now bills were mounting and he could barely afford to feed his family, even after pulling two daughters out of school. Hoping to get his job back, the father of five had joined protests outside Basra's state-run oil company at 5 a.m. each day - a last resort.

"What do you expect from a man who has told his girls they can't go to school anymore, a man who can't even pay for an operation that his father really needs," Ali said, in the sweltering old yellow-brick house his family shares with four others.

As he saw it, migration was only making the situation worse, and he felt that the slow tide of arrivals was changing his city. "Their mind-set is different; we don't know how to deal with them," he said. "They don't respect the laws here."

Decades of government neglect in rural areas, particularly in the education sector, have left many of the migrants illiterate. Farmers who grew up working the land often struggle to access the city's formal labor market and instead rely on temporary employment as construction workers or truck drivers, or hawking goods from carts in the street. And their habits and attitudes clash with those of their urban cousins.

The informal areas where they live also experience higher rates of crime, according to security officials. The head of Basra's investigative court, Ammar Shaker Fajr, estimated that about 60 percent of the drug cases it received involved arrests in the city's new shantytowns.

As the issue of newcomers grows more contentious, political leaders in southern Iraq have started blaming the city's crime rate - as well as other problems - on its migrants.

In 2018, the governor of Basra province, Asaad Abdulameer al-Eidani, gained popularity by barring legal residency in the city without proof of homeownership. In the years since, his pronouncements have sounded a steady drumbeat of hostilitytoward the newcomers.

That rhetoric has provided an escape valve of sorts for the city's politicians, who are increasingly unpopular. A few years ago, huge demonstrations decrying corruption and unemployment were crushed with deadly force. Since then, every summer has brought scattered daily protests over authorities' failure to provide basic services.

"Local politicians use the flow of immigrants to justify their poor governance," said Maha Yassin, a climate researcher at the Netherlands-based Clingendael Institute, who is from Basra.

When a raid against an alleged drug dealer turned deadly in the summer of 2019, Eidani vowed that the city would demolish "every home that harbors a criminal from outside the province," and said the action was for "the people of Basra."

"All the crimes in the city are being done by people who immigrated," he said in televised comments. "We need to stand against it."

But Yassin echoed what other officials in the province have long argued: that the marginalization of the people in the city's informal areas is pushing up the crime rate.

"This is how you drive these people into criminality, by discriminating," she said. "They move to irregular neighborhoods where there's no proper public services and no employment. And then social issues will emerge."

In Dour al-Qiyada, Atshan, the community leader, worried that the authorities' stance was making things worse.

"When they call them 'infiltrators,' the impact feels as bad as racial discrimination," he said. "No one provides us with anything. Trust me, everyone here is just trying to make a living."

When a heat wave forced the shutdown of Basra's power grid in August, the homes of newcomers and longtime residents alike were plunged into darkness as millions spent sleepless nights drenched in sweat. At midnight, it was still 100 degrees. The children were crying in Ali's cramped house, he said, and relations among the adults felt tense. In Awdeh's shantytown, the heat seemed to smother every breath he took.

Authorities blamed extreme heat and surging demand for the outages. But even when the grid was working again, residents of the home of Iraq's lucrative energy industry were still relying mostly on private generators that belched fumes as they powered the bare minimum: weak fans and white lights that flickered on the unsteady current.

Asked about plans to upgrade the grid, officials did not respond to requests for comment. But residents said that without improvements, they fear what future summers will bring.

Recently, as heat shimmered on the city's asphalt, a motorized rickshaw edged slowly out of a makeshift neighborhood and onto gridlocked roads. On the canvas of the rickshaw's cabin, the owner had summed up his situation.

"My dreams in this country are being lived by a dog in Europe," the neat white lettering read.
Chris Mooney and Kasha Patel in Washington contributed to this report.

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Climate migrants flee Iraq's parched rural south, but cities offer no refuge

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BASRA, Iraq - What happens when the land dries up? The world is facing this question; Iraq is already learning the answers. First the farmers and the fishermen try to stay. Then, one by one, they reach their breaking point. Migration starts slowly, but the exodus to towns and cities soon swells, and as temperatures rise, so do tensions.

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Middle East: towards millions of people displaced by climate change?

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Middle East: towards millions of people displaced by climate change?

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-People from Middle Eastern, and North African countries are at higher risk of being displaced due to climate change and increased natural disasters. These hazards are making it increasingly more difficult to live in cities or countries where climate change is causing havoc to their lives, and livlihoods. In 2021, Africa saw almost 3 million people leave their homes because of climate change, and it's predicted that by 2050, if nothing is done, there will be more than 216 million climate migrants. In Egypt, they say that climate change could be responsible for wiping out half of the agricultural sector, which is a huge factor for many people migrating from African countries.

Question: What are some of the biggest implications of climate change for people from Africa or the middle east, espcecially related to the various economic systems?

Ambroise Centelles

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Moyen-Orient : vers des millions de déplacés en raison du changement climatique ?

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Dans la région du monde la plus pauvre en eau, le changement climatique pourrait faire des millions de déplacés, charriant avec eux le risque d’une urbanisation néfaste pour l’environnement

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How AI can help us better prepare for climate Migration

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How AI can help us better prepare for climate Migration

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(not really a news piece but I wanted to post it anyway because it's so controversial :o)

Questions the article addresses:

How can AI help predicting migration flows in the wake of environmental disasters?

How can AI facilitate bureaucratic processes (identification!) when people are dislocated?

How can AI help with the large-scale relocation of people?

Why is the implementation of AI potentially risky?

by Maie Klingenberg

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Extreme weather leads to climate migration. Image: Photo by Jonathan Ford on Unsplash

Coordinator on the AI and ML team , World Economic Forum

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How AI can help us better prepare for climate migration

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Extreme weather leads to climate migration. Image: Photo by Jonathan Ford on Unsplash Coordinator on the AI and ML team , World Economic Forum Stay up to date: Artificial Intelligence Follow Discover How is the World Economic Forum fighting the climate crisis?

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The global North has a responsibility: We need a climate passport for climate refugees

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The global North has a responsibility: We need a climate passport for climate refugees

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One main idea: Citizens of island states threatened by climate change should be the first ones eligible for a climate passport that allows them to migrate safely.

Questions the article answers:

Why does the climate crisis pose moral questions of responsibility and justice?

How should the global North respond to the coming climate refugee crisis, given its ecological debt?

Which citizens should be the first to make use of such a climate passport?

by Maie Klingenberg

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- Katrin Göring-Eckardt ist Grünen-Politikerin und seit 2021 Vizepräsidentin des Bundestags.

Vor ein paar Wochen: Eine giftige Wolke zieht über Delhi. Eine riesige Müllkippe steht in Flammen. Löschen ist wegen der herrschenden Temperaturen von bis zu 50 Grad unmöglich. Eine massive Hitzewelle trifft Indien. Bangladesch erlebt die schwersten Überflutungen seit fast 20 Jahren. Die Dürre rund um das Horn von Afrika ist verheerend. Tote, verdurstete Tiere. Hungernde Menschen, die ihr Zuhause verlassen, auf der Suche nach Essen und Trinken.

[Alle aktuellen Nachrichten bekommen Sie mit der Tagesspiegel-App live auf ihr Handy. Hier für Apple- und Android-Geräte herunterladen.]

Was wie der Anfang eines apokalyptischen Films klingt, ist Wirklichkeit, geschieht im Hier und Jetzt. Die Menschheit spürt die Folgen dessen, was sie selbst verursachtet hat: Verwüstung, Versteppung, Überflutung. Wir sollten uns klar machen: Die Folgen unseres Lebens, Wirtschaftens, Handelns in den reichen Industrieländern laden wir anderen auf: der Natur, den Menschen des globalen Südens, den Arten, die unwiederbringlich verschwinden. Weg. Für immer. Unsere heutige Lebensart macht die Erde wüst und leer, bringt auf Dauer unseren Planeten zum Kollabieren.

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Die Zahl der Menschen, die ihre Heimat wegen der Folgen der Klimakrise verlassen müssen, hat sich seit den 70er Jahren vervierfacht. Heute schon werden innerhalb der betroffenen Länder mehr Menschen durch klima- und umweltbedingte Katastrophen - Überflutungen, Dürre, Stürme - vertrieben als durch Gewalt und Konflikte. Es ist absehbar, dass in Zukunft ganze Inseln von den Landkarten verschwinden werden.

140 Millionen Klima-Flüchtlinge bis 2050 erwartet die Weltbank

Die Weltbank rechnete in einer Studie von 2018 mit 140 Millionen klimabedingt Vertriebenen allein in Subsahara-Afrika, Südasien und Südamerika bis 2050. Eine Zahl, die damals Schlagzeilen macht, aber eben nicht nur eine Zahl ist. Dahinter steckt das potenzielle Leid von vielen Millionen Menschen, die eine Antwort brauchen. Eine realistische Betrachtung, frei von Ideologie. Hoffen, dass es schon nicht so schlimm werde, ist unzulässig.

Die Weltbank-Studie ging vor vier Jahren noch davon aus, dass etwa 80 Prozent der Vertreibung durch ambitionierten Klimaschutz vermeidbar sind. Heute dürfte die Zahl geringer sein. Es ist einfach: Wir haben keine Zeit mehr. Und wir haben auch nicht mehr genug, um die Folgen so zu mildern, dass wir es schon nicht spüren werden. Die immer noch bestehende Vermeidbarkeit jedenfalls eines Teils der gravierenden Folgen verlangt uns jede Energie, Entschlossenheit und alle denkbaren Allianzen ab.

Unser Lebensstil wird sich ändern müssen

Was ist die Antwort? Die erste kann nur eine äußerst konsequente Klimapolitik sein: Unser Lebensstil wird sich zwangsläufig ändern. Ja, es wird für alle unbequemer, doch so auch erträglich und sicherer. Nicht nur für uns und unsere Kinder heute, sondern auch für deren Kinder und Enkelkinder, wenn wir längst nicht mehr sind.

Die zweite Antwort: Konsequenter Klimaschutz erfordert einen neuen Gerechtigkeitsvertrag mit einem neuen Verständnis von Verantwortung. Reichtum verpflichtet. Dieses Prinzip muss wieder stärker gelten. Das, was uns noch bleibt, das müssen wir so verteilen, dass es gerecht zugeht, dass nicht die Empfindlichsten, Ärmsten, die am wenigsten Lauten das meiste tragen.

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Manche können eine höhere Stromrechnung abfedern, tauschen den Benziner gegen ein E-Auto. Andere aber trifft die Klimakrise auch bei uns hier härter. Natürlich macht es einen Unterschied, ob jemand im schlecht gedämmten Haus an der lauten Straße der Hitze und Luftverschmutzung ausgesetzt ist oder im modernen Haus mit dem Garten ins Grüne.

Eine kaputte Umwelt und ein Klima in der Krise bedeuten eben auch Spaltung und Armut. Das gilt es so gut es geht auszugleichen. Dabei ist klar: Der Staat kann nicht alle Folgen ausgleichen. Zumutungen werden spürbar sein. Für alle. Es kann nur darum gehen, sie möglichst gerecht zu verteilen. Auch für alle. Statt Prinzip Gießkanne sollte das Prinzip einer neuen klimagerechteren Umverteilung gelten: Wir können nicht jede Zumutung und Belastung ausgleichen. Wir können die Belastung nur für die ausgleichen, die sie nicht aushalten können.

Migration ist eine Anpassungsstrategie

Es geht längst nicht mehr nur darum wie wir leben, sondern wie wir als Menschheit überleben. Die Klimakrise heizt Konflikte um knappe Ressourcen an und löst neue Verteilungskämpfe aus. Auch global gilt: Wir können vieles nicht mehr verhindern, wir können es nur erträglich machen, so gut es geht. Dazu gehört, dass wir einen fairen deutschen Beitrag zur internationalen Klimafinanzierung beisteuern - gemäß dem Verursacherprinzip.

Eine konsequente Klimapolitik und eine neue Politik der Gerechtigkeit, global wie national, kann nur ein Teil der Antwort sein. Die dritte große Aufgabe für die Industrieländer: Wir dürfen diejenigen, die von der Klimakrise schon jetzt und ganz unmittelbar betroffen sind, nicht auf unseren Kosten sitzen lassen. Wir können bei der Anpassung unterstützen und die Resilienz stärken, aber wir dürfen nicht die Verantwortung für die Lösung des Problems von uns als Verursacher*innen auf die Betroffenen abladen.

[Der Nachrichtenüberblick aus der Hauptstadt: Schon rund 57.000 Leserinnen und Leser informieren sich zweimal täglich mit unseren kompakten überregionalen Newslettern. Melden Sie sich jetzt kostenlos hier an.]

Deshalb haben wir auch über Migration und Flucht zu sprechen. Denn auch Migration ist eine "Anpassungsstrategie", um mit veränderten Lebensbedingungen vor Ort umzugehen. Deswegen ist es wichtig, dass wir unser Einwanderungsrecht darauf einstellen. Wenn wir reguläre Migration ermöglichen, vermeiden wir erzwungene Flucht. Und doch: Flucht wird stattfinden.

Wir sollten die Idee eines Klimapasses für Klimavertriebene international vorantreiben. In der ersten Phase könnte dieses Hilfsangebot Bevölkerungen kleiner Inselstaaten zur Verfügung stehen, deren Gebiete unmittelbar unbewohnbar werden. Wir sollten auch prüfen, Katastrophenvertriebene unter subsidiären Schutz zu stellen. Das ist eine globale Aufgabe, die wir nicht auf unbestimmt in die Zukunft vertagen dürfen.

Fast 50 Grad heiß Klimawandel hat Indiens Megahitze 30-mal wahrscheinlicher gemacht

Schließlich: Die fossile Sucht hat uns abhängig gemacht von Diktatoren, wir sind gerade nicht resilient, die Globalität der Abhängigkeiten hat uns zu Gefangenen des Wohlstands gemacht. Industrien, die auf Gaslieferungen angewiesen sind, das Ernährungsprogramm, das den Weizen braucht, der in Odessa im Silo liegt. Es ist höchste Zeit, dass wir die alten Abhängigkeiten aufbrechen und resilient werden. Der Anfang ist gemacht. Der Weg ist weit. Aber eine Rückkehr ist keine Option.
Katrin Göring-Eckardt Zur Startseite

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Der Globale Norden steht in der Pflicht: Wir brauchen einen Klimapass für Klimaflüchtlinge

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Katrin Göring-Eckardt ist Grünen-Politikerin und seit 2021 Vizepräsidentin des Bundestags. Vor ein paar Wochen: Eine giftige Wolke zieht über Delhi. Eine riesige Müllkippe steht in Flammen. Löschen ist wegen der herrschenden Temperaturen von bis zu 50 Grad unmöglich. Eine massive Hitzewelle trifft Indien. Bangladesch erlebt die schwersten Überflutungen seit fast 20 Jahren.

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The century of climate migration: why we need to plan for the	great upheaval

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The century of climate migration: why we need to plan for the	great upheaval

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The questions posed in the article range from more utopian and holistic questions, such as how a sustainable world could look, to more concrete, such as the introduction of regional and global free movement agreements.

It broadly discusses how climate change will affect different countries and drive climate migration. Here, the article frames migration as a solution to local disparities (droughts, flooding) induced by the climate crisis. As such, it advocates introducing policies which favour and generate safe migration due to climate change. Possible unwillingness to migrate due to climate change is not considered/mentioned in the article …

Elisabeth Drahoss

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A great upheaval is coming. Climate-driven movement of people is adding to a massive migration already under way to the world's cities. The number of migrants has doubled globally over the past decade, and the issue of what to do about rapidly increasing populations of displaced people will only become greater and more urgent. To survive climate breakdown will require a planned and deliberate migration of a kind humanity has never before undertaken.

The world already sees twice as many days where temperatures exceed 50C than 30 years ago - this level of heat is deadly for humans, and also hugely problematic for buildings, roads and power stations. It makes an area unliveable. This explosive planetary drama demands a dynamic human response. We need to help people to move from danger and poverty to safety and comfort - to build a more resilient global society for everyone's benefit.

Large populations will need to migrate, and not simply to the nearest city, but also across continents. Those living in regions with more tolerable conditions, especially nations in northern latitudes, will need to accommodate millions of migrants while themselves adapting to the demands of the climate crisis. We will need to create entirely new cities near the planet's cooler poles, in land that is rapidly becoming ice-free. Parts of Siberia, for example, are already experiencing temperatures of 30C for months at a time.

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Arctic areas are burning, with mega-blazes devouring Siberia, Greenland and Alaska. Even in January, peat fires were burning in the Siberian cryosphere, despite temperatures below -50C. These zombie fires smoulder year round in the peat below ground, in and around the Arctic Circle, only to burst into huge blazes that rage across the boreal forests of Siberia, Alaska and Canada.

In 2019, colossal fires destroyed more than 4m hectares of Siberian taiga forest, blazing for more than three months, and producing a cloud of soot and ash as large as the countries that make up the entire European Union. Models predict that fires in the boreal forests and Arctic tundra will increase by up to four times by 2100.

Wherever you live now, migration will affect you and the lives of your children. It is predictable that Bangladesh, a country where one-third of the population lives along a sinking, low-lying coast, is becoming uninhabitable. (More than 13 million Bangladeshis - nearly 10% of the population - are expected to have left the country by 2050.) But in the coming decades wealthy nations will be severely affected, too.

This upheaval occurs not only at a time of unprecedented climate change but also of human demographic change. Global population will continue to rise in the coming decades, peaking at perhaps 10 billion in the 2060s. Most of this increase will be in the tropical regions that are worst hit by climate catastrophe, causing people there to flee northwards. The global north faces the opposite problem - a "top-heavy" demographic crisis, in which a large elderly population is supported by a too-small workforce. North America and Europe have 300 million people above the traditional retirement age (65+), and by 2050, the economic old-age dependency ratio there is projected to be at 43 elderly persons per 100 working persons aged 20-64. Cities from Munich to Buffalo will begin competing with each other to attract migrants.

An aerial view of Fairbourne village in Gwynedd, north Wales, expected to be abandoned by 2045. Photograph: Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP

The coming migration will involve the world's poorest fleeing deadly heatwaves and failed crops. It will also include the educated, the middle class, people who can no longer live where they planned because it's impossible to get a mortgage or property insurance; because employment has moved elsewhere. The climate crisis has already uprooted millions in the US - in 2018, 1.2 million were displaced by extreme conditions, fire, storms and flooding; by 2020, the annual toll had risen to 1.7 million people. The US now averages a $1bn disaster every 18 days.

More than half of the western US is facing extreme drought conditions, and farmers in Oregon's Klamath Basin talk about illegally using force to open dam gates for irrigation. At the other extreme, fatal floods have stranded thousands of people from Death Valley to Kentucky. By 2050, half a million existing US homes will be on land that floods at least once a year, according to data from Climate Central, a partnership of scientists and journalists. Louisiana's Isle de Jean Charles has already been allocated $48m of federal tax dollars to move the entire community due to coastal erosion and rising sea levels; in Britain, the Welsh villagers of Fairbourne have been told their homes should be abandoned to the encroaching sea as the entire village is to be "decommissioned" in 2045. Larger coastal cities are at risk, too. Consider that the Welsh capital, Cardiff, is projected to be two-thirds underwater by 2050.

The UN International Organization for Migration has cited estimates of as many as 1 billion environmental migrants in the next 30 years, while more recent projections point to 1.2 billion by 2050, and 1.4 billion by 2060. After 2050, that figure is expected to soar as the world heats further and the global population rises to its predicted peak in the mid 2060s.

The question for humanity becomes: what does a sustainable world look like? We will need to develop an entirely new way of feeding, fuelling and maintaining our lifestyles, while also reducing atmospheric carbon levels. We will need to live in denser concentrations in fewer cities, while reducing the associated risks of crowded populations, including power outages, sanitation problems, overheating, pollution and infectious disease.

At least as challenging, though, will be the task of overcoming the idea that we belong to a particular land and that it belongs to us. We will need to assimilate into globally diverse societies, living in new, polar cities. We will need to be ready to move again when necessary. With every degree of temperature increase, roughly 1 billion people will be pushed outside the zone in which humans have lived for thousands of years. We are running out of time to manage the coming upheaval before it becomes overwhelming and deadly.

Migration is not the problem; it is the solution.

How we manage this global crisis, and how humanely we treat each other as we migrate, will be key to whether this century of upheaval proceeds smoothly or with violent conflict and unnecessary deaths. Managed right, this upheaval could lead to a new global commonwealth of humanity. Migration is our way out of this crisis.

Migration, whether from disaster to safety, or for a new land of opportunity, is deeply interwoven with cooperation - it is only through our extensive collaborations that we are able to migrate, and it's our migrations that forged today's global society. Migration made us. It is our national identities and borders that are the anomaly.

The idea of keeping foreign people out using borders is relatively recent. States used to be far more concerned about stopping people from leaving than preventing their arrival. They needed their labour and taxes.

Some may think that it's flags, anthems and an army to guard your territory that's needed to develop a sense of nationhood. But in fact, the credit should go to a successful bureaucracy. Greater government intervention in people's lives and the creation of a broad systemic bureaucracy were needed to run a complex industrial society and these also forged national identity in its citizens. For instance, Prussia began paying unemployment benefit in the 1880s, which was issued initially in a worker's home village, where people and their circumstances were known. But it was also paid to people where they migrated for work, which meant a new layer of bureaucracy to establish who was Prussian and therefore entitled to benefits. This resulted in citizenship papers and controlled borders. As governments exerted greater control, people got more state benefits from their taxes, and more rights, such as voting, which engendered a feeling of ownership over the state. It became their nation.

Nation states are an artificial social structure predicated on the mythology that the world is made of distinct, homogenous groups that occupy separate portions of the globe, and claim most people's primary allegiance. The reality is far messier. Most people speak the languages of multiple groups, and ethnic and cultural pluralism is the norm. The idea that a person's identity and wellbeing is primarily tied to that of one invented national group is far-fetched, even if this is presupposed by many governments. The political scientist Benedict Anderson famously described nation states as "imagined communities".

An Afghan family relocating from a drought-stricken area the country's Badghis province in 2021. Photograph: Hoshang Hashimi/AFP/Getty Images

It is hardly surprising that the nation-state model so often fails - there have been about 200 civil wars since 1960. However, there are plenty of examples of nation states that work well despite being made up of different groups, such as Singapore, Malaysia and Tanzania, or nations created from global migrants like Australia, Canada and the US. To some degree, all nation states have been formed from a mixture of groups. When nation states falter or fail, the problem is not diversity itself, but not enough official inclusiveness - equity in the eyes of the state, regardless of which other groups a person belongs to. An insecure government allied to a specific group, which it favours over others, breeds discontent and pitches one group against others - this results in people falling back on trusted alliances based on kinship, rather.

A democracy with a mandate of official inclusiveness from its people is generally more stable - but it needs underpinning by a complex bureaucracy. Nations have navigated this in various ways, for example, devolving power to local communities, giving them voice and agency over their own affairs within the nation state (as is the case in Canada, or Switzerland's cantons). By embracing multiple groups, languages and cultures as equally legitimate, a country like Tanzania can function as a national mosaic of at least 100 different ethnic groups and languages. In Singapore, which has consciously pursued an integrated multi-ethnic population, at least one-fifth of marriages are interracial. Unjust hierarchies between groups make this harder, particularly when imposed on a majority by a minority.

In April 2021, Governor Kristi Noem tweeted: "South Dakota won't be taking any illegal immigrants that the Biden administration wants to relocate. My message to illegal immigrants ... call me when you're an American."

Consider that South Dakota only exists because thousands of undocumented immigrants from Europe used the Homestead Act from 1860 to 1920 to steal land from Native Americans without compensation or reparations. This kind of exclusive attitude from a leader weakens the sense of shared citizenship among all, creating divisions between residents who are deemed to belong and those who are not.

Official inclusion by the national bureaucracy is a starting point for building national identity in all citizens, particularly with a large influx of migrants, but the legacy of decades or centuries of injustice persists socially, economically and politically.

The frontline in Europe's war against migrants is the Mediterranean Sea, patrolled by Italian warships tasked with intercepting small EU-bound vessels and forcing them instead to ports in Libya on the north African coast. One such warship, the Caprera, was singled out for praise by Italy's anti-migrant interior minister for "defending our security", after it intercepted more than 80 migrant boats, carrying more than 7,000 people. "Honour!" he tweeted, posting a photo of himself with the crew in 2018.

However, during an inspection of the Caprera that same year, police discovered more than 700,000 contraband cigarettes and large numbers of other smuggled goods imported by the crew from Libya to be sold for profit in Italy. On further investigation, the smuggling enterprise turned out to involve several other military ships. "I felt like Dante descending into the inferno," said Lt Col Gabriele Gargano, the police officer who led the investigation.

The case highlights a central absurdity around today's attitude to migration. Immigration controls are regarded as essential - but for people, not stuff. Huge effort goes into enabling the cross-border migration of goods, services and money. Every year more than 11bn tonnes of stuff is shipped around the world - the equivalent of 1.5 tonnes per person a year - whereas humans, who are key to all this economic activity, are unable to move freely. Industrialised nations with big demographic challenges and important labour shortages are blocked from employing migrants who are desperate for jobs.

Currently, there is no global body or organisation overseeing the movement of people worldwide. Governments belong to the International Organization for Migration, but this is an independent, "related organisation" of the UN, rather than an actual UN agency: it is not subject to the direct oversight of the general assembly and cannot set common policy that would enable countries to capitalise on the opportunities immigrants offer. Migrants are usually managed by each individual nation's foreign ministry, rather than the labour ministry, so decisions are made without the information or coordinated policies to match people with job markets. We need a new mechanism to manage global labour mobility far more effectively and efficiently - it is our biggest economic resource, after all.

The aftermath of wildfires that burned more than 1m hectares of forests in Siberia's Krasnoyarsk territory in 2019. Photograph: Donat Sorokin/Tass

The conversation about migration has become stuck on what ought to be allowed, rather than planning for what will occur. Nations need to move on from the idea of controlling to managing migration. At the very least, we need new mechanisms for lawful economic labour migration and mobility, and far better protection for those fleeing danger.

Within days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, EU leaders enacted an open-border policy for refugees fleeing the conflict, giving them the right to live and work across the bloc for three years, and helping with housing, education, transport and other needs. The policy undoubtedly saved lives but additionally, by not requiring millions of people to go through protracted asylum processes, the refugees were able to disperse to places where they could better help themselves and be helped by local communities. Across the EU, people came together in their communities, on social media, and through institutions to organise ways of hosting refugees.

They offered rooms in their homes, collected donations of clothes and toys, set up language camps and mental health support - all of which was legal because of the open-border policy. This reduced the burden for central government, host towns and refugees alike.

Migration requires funds, contacts and courage. It usually involves a degree of hardship, at least initially, as people are wrenched from their families, familiar surroundings and language. Some countries make it almost impossible to move for work, and in others, parents are forced to leave behind children who they may never see grow up. An entire generation of Chinese children has reached adulthood seeing their parents only for a week or so once a year, during spring festival.

In China, hundreds of millions of people are caught in limbo between the village and cities, unable to fully transition due to archaic land laws and the lack of social housing, childcare, schools or other public facilities in the cities. The villages are sustained through remittances from absent workers, who cannot sell their farms for fear of losing their land, which is their only social security. Left-behind, isolated children then become primary caregivers for their ageing relatives. Migrant workers cannot afford to buy homes in the city and so return to the village on retirement, restarting the cycle.

In other cases, migrants pay huge fees to people traffickers for urban or foreign work, only to find themselves in indentured positions that are little better than slavery, working out their "contracts" until they can get their passports back and return home. What little money they do earn will be sent home. These include Asian construction workers and domestic workers in the Middle East and Europe, who have little protection and may end up in forced labour in the sex industry or in inhumane conditions in food processing or garment factories. Most migrants are trying to improve their lives, as we all do, by moving. Some are migrating to save their lives.

I've visited people in refugee camps in different countries across four continents, where millions of people live in limbo, sometimes for generations. Around the world, whether the refugee camps were filled with Sudanese, Tibetans, Palestinians, Syrians, Salvadorans or Iraqis, the issue was the same: people want dignity. And that means being able to provide for their families - being allowed to work, to move around, and to make a life for themselves in safety. Currently, too many nations make this wish - though it is very simple and mutually beneficial - impossible for those most in need of it. As our environment changes, millions more risk ending up in these nowhere places. Globally, this system of sealed borders and hostile migration policy is dysfunctional. It doesn't work for anyone's benefit.

A woman takes animals to safety as flood water rises in the coastal area in Khulna, Bangladesh, in August 2022. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

We are witnessing the highest levels of human displacement on record, and it will only increase. In 2020, refugees around the world exceeded 100 million, tripling since 2010, and half were children. This means one in every 78 people on earth has been forced to flee. Registered refugees represent only a fraction of those forced to leave their homes due to war or disaster.

In addition to these, 350 million people are undocumented worldwide, an astonishing 22 million in the US alone, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates. These include informal workers and those who move along ancient routes crossing national borders - these are the people who increasingly find themselves without legal recognition, living on the margins, unable to benefit from social support systems.

As long as 4.2 billion people live in poverty and the income gap between the global north and south continues to grow, people will have to move - and those living in climate-impacted regions will be disproportionately affected. Nations have an obligation to offer asylum to refugees, but under the legal definition of the refugee, written in the 1951 Refugee Convention, this does not include those who have to leave their home because of climate crisis.

Things are beginning to shift, though. In a landmark judgment, in 2020, the UN Human Rights Committee ruled that climate refugees cannot be sent home, meaning that a state would be in breach of its human rights obligations if it returns someone to a country where - due to the climate crisis - their life is in danger. However, the rulings of the committee are not internationally binding.

Today, the 50 million climate-displaced people already outnumber those fleeing political persecution. The distinction between refugees and economic migrants is rarely a straightforward one, and further complicated by the climate crisis. While the dramatic devastation of a hurricane erasing whole villages can make refugees of people overnight, more often the impacts of climate breakdown on people's lives are gradual - another poor harvest or another season of unbearable heat, which becomes the catalyst/crisis that pushes people to seek better locations.

This should give the world time to adapt to the mass migrations to come - that ultimate climate adaptation. But instead, as environments grow ever more deadly, the world's wealthiest countries spend more on militarising their borders - creating a climate "wall" - than they do on the climate emergency. The growth in offshore detention and "processing" centres for asylum seekers not only adds to the death toll, but is among the most repugnant features of the rich world's failure to ease the impact of the climate crisis on the poorest regions. We must be alert to "climate nationalists" who want to reinforce the unequal allocation of our planet's safer lands.

The planetary scale crisis demands a global climate migration pact, but in the meantime, regional free movement agreements - of the kind EU member states enjoy - would help. Such agreements have helped residents of disaster-hit Caribbean islands find refuge in safer ones.

Climate change is in most cases survivable; it is our border policies that will kill people. Human movement on a scale never before seen will dominate this century. It could be a catastrophe or, managed well, it could be our salvation.

This article was amended on 19 and 25 August 2022 to remove the suggestion that there are boreal forests in Greenland. Also, an earlier version said the International Organization for Migration "estimates that there could be as many as 1.5 billion environmental migrants in the next 30 years"; in fact, the IOM has cited estimates of up to 1 billion environmental migrants in this period.
This is an edited extract from Nomad Century: How to Survive the Climate Upheaval by Gaia Vince, published by Allen Lane on 25 August. To order a copy, go to guardianbookshop.com
Follow the Long Read on Twitter at @gdnlongread, listen to our podcasts here and sign up to the long read weekly email here.

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The century of climate migration: why we need to plan for the great upheaval

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The long read: People driven from their homes by climate disaster need protection. And ageing nations need them

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Environmental migrants: the human face of climate change in South America

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Environmental migrants: the human face of climate change in South America

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Author: Marcelo Pisani (19.Jul.2022)
-Between 1998 and 2020, 312,000 people died and more than 277 million individuals were impacted by climatic and geophysical events in LAC.

-  Risks are aggravated by inequality, poverty, population growth, settlement at high-risk sites, exploitation of natural resources, among other factors.

-   Climate change has a clear influence on human mobility in the region, particularly within country borders

-  Climate Week was held in the Dominican Republic in July, among technical discussions, the need to highlight the human face of climate change was bought to the table.

-  Efforts to prevent forced migration should be complemented by the development of safe and regular migration pathways for individuals affected by sudden and gradual disasters.

-  Countries in the region have started to look for solutions and strategies, but efforts should not cease to ensure Human Rights protection. Climate negotiations are a fundamental space for discussion to integrate the migration issue

-   Climate migrations in South America are as varied as the circumstances in which they are produced. All these movements remind us that urgent action is needed to improve policies and to be more ambitious and forceful in dealing with the consequences of climate change.

Questions:

-> What are the human impacts of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean?
->What has been the (policy) reaction of countries towards climate migration and what is the way forward?
(Laura Coral)

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Cambio climático

Tribuna

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Artículos estrictamente de opinión que responden al estilo propio del autor. Estos textos de opinión han de basarse en datos verificados y ser respetuosos con las personas aunque se critiquen sus actos. Todas las tribunas de opinión de personas ajenas a la Redacción de EL PAÍS llevarán, tras la última línea, un pie de autor -por conocido que éste sea- donde se indique el cargo, título, militancia política (en su caso) u ocupación principal, o la que esté o estuvo relacionada con el tema abordado

Más de 300.000 personas han muerto por fenómenos climáticos y geofísicos en América Latina y el Caribe en dos décadas. Es urgente abordar las consecuencias del calentamiento global en la movilidad humana, advierte el director regional de la Organización Internacional para las Migraciones

Una mujer ayuda a un niño a cruzar una calle inundada en Huachipa, en Lima (Perú), el 19 de marzo de 2017. Mariana Bazo

Entre 1998 y 2020, los fenómenos climáticos y geofísicos causaron 312.000 muertes y afectaron directamente a más de 277 millones de personas en América Latina y el Caribe, según el informe sobre el estado del clima de la Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM). Los impactos del calentamiento global no se vislumbran solo en el futuro, sino también en el presente, y además se ven multiplicados por las características de la región. En palabras del Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC, por sus siglas en inglés), esta situación se ve amplificada por la desigualdad, la pobreza, el crecimiento poblacional, la ocupación de lugares de alto riesgo y la elevada densidad, así como también, en algunos casos, la falta de una planificación sostenible de la explotación de los recursos naturales.

El cambio climático tiene una influencia clara en la movilidad humana en la región, en particular dentro de las fronteras de los países. Solo en 2021, el Centro de Monitoreo del Desplazamiento Interno registró más de 1,6 millones de nuevos desplazamientos por desastres en las Américas, una cifra que ascendió a 4,5 millones en 2020. Para el año 2050, el Banco Mundial cifra en 17 millones el número potencial de migrantes climáticos en América Latina si se cumplen los escenarios más pesimistas.

Para el 2050, el Banco Mundial cifra en 17 millones el número potencial de migrantes climáticos en América Latina, según los escenarios más pesimistas

La Semana del Clima de América Latina y el Caribe, organizada por ONU Cambio Climático en Santo Domingo (República Dominicana) del 18 al 22 de julio de 2022, representa una ocasión ideal para evaluar el progreso realizado en la región en términos de mitigación y adaptación al calentamiento global. Aunque las propuestas existen, los resultados concretos son limitados, siendo necesarios más esfuerzos para asegurar una transición exitosa hacia economías más verdes, resilientes y sostenibles, que protejan a las poblaciones más vulnerables.

Más que un evento sobre cambio climático

La Semana del Clima, además de un evento sobre cambio climático, debe ser un encuentro sobre las sociedades de la región, sobre cómo enfrentan situaciones cada vez más complejas y sobre cómo la comunidad internacional debe apoyar en esta tarea. Entre la tecnicidad de los debates se destaca la necesidad de poner de relieve el rostro humano del fenómeno: el de las personas y comunidades que sufren los embates de amenazas cada vez más severas que afectan a los medios y las condiciones de vida a lo largo y ancho de la región.

Muchas de estas personas recurren a la migración como mecanismo de respuesta ante los desastres, la degradación ambiental, la pérdida de medios de vida y los impactos adversos del cambio climático.

Los desplazamientos masivos registrados en Perú en 2017 provocados por El Niño, la movilidad de comunidades amazónicas que enfrentan incendios cada vez más devastadores, la persistente sequía en la zona central de Chile, las inundaciones que afectaron el noreste brasileño a finales de 2021 o la necesidad de reubicar poblaciones costeras afectadas por la subida del nivel del mar son algunos de los ejemplos que reflejan sociedades en movimiento en contextos de amenazas ambientales.

La migración no es solo un resultado de la falta de adaptación a estas situaciones. También contribuye al desarrollo y la resiliencia de las comunidades de origen y de destino. Los esfuerzos para prevenir la migración forzada deben complementarse con el desarrollo de vías de migración segura y regular para personas afectadas por desastres súbitos y graduales, como lo recomienda el Pacto para una Migración Segura, Ordenada y Regular, principal acuerdo global en materia migratoria.

América del Sur representa un espacio de innovación en la búsqueda de soluciones a estas cuestiones tan complejas. Los países de la región han avanzado en estrategias novedosas para abordar los impactos del cambio climático en la movilidad humana. Desde el desarrollo de planes de acción y alineamientos nacionales sobre migración climática, hasta la reubicación de poblaciones en zonas de riesgo, pasando por la creación de visas humanitarias para las víctimas de los desastres.

No podemos, sin embargo, cesar en la ambición de fortalecer el trabajo junto a las comunidades y las personas en movimiento más vulnerables para avanzar en acciones que aseguren su protección bajo la óptica de los Derechos Humanos, los alineamientos del Pacto Mundial para la Migración y en apoyo a la concreción de la Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible. Para esta labor, la coordinación entre los diferentes actores, el intercambio de experiencias y el apoyo de la comunidad internacional es fundamental. Desde la Organización Internacional de las Migraciones hemos señalado que las negociaciones climáticas son un espacio fundamental de discusión para integrar la cuestión migratoria, bajo la premisa de que no es posible emprender una acción climática sin abordar las consecuencias del calentamiento global en la movilidad humana.

No es posible emprender una acción climática sin abordar las consecuencias del calentamiento global en la movilidad humana

Tanto en la Semana del Clima, como en las preparaciones hacia la edición 27 de la Conferencia de las Partes de la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre Cambio Climático (COP27) que se reunirá en Egipto en noviembre de 2022, resulta crucial integrar las perspectivas de las poblaciones migrantes, sus necesidades y sus capacidades.

Las migraciones climáticas en América del Sur son tan variadas como las circunstancias en las que se producen: no migran de la misma manera poblaciones del Caribe, de los Andes, de la Amazonía o del Chaco. Todos estos movimientos nos recuerdan que se requiere actuar con urgencia en la mejora de las políticas y con una mayor ambición y contundencia para hacer frente a las consecuencias del cambio climático.

Marcelo Pisani es director regional para América del Sur de la Organización Internacional para las Migraciones (OIM).

Se adhiere a los criterios de

Más información

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Migrantes ambientales: el rostro humano del cambio climático en América del Sur

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Más de 300.000 personas han muerto por fenómenos climáticos y geofísicos en América Latina y el Caribe en dos décadas. Es urgente abordar las consecuencias del calentamiento global en la movilidad humana, advierte el director regional de la Organización Internacional para las Migraciones

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Hundreds of thousands of people are suffering in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger due to government failures to invest in preventive infrastructure

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Hundreds of thousands of people are suffering in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger due to government failures to invest in preventive infrastructure

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Floods in 2022 have devasted West Africa, particularly agricultural regions in Cameroon and Nigeria.

Rice fields have been badly damaged, and 14,000 farms have been destroyed.

More than 100,000 Nigerians have been forced to live in shelters.

Several public health risks have arisen, including the continuation of spreading Cholera.

Factors exacerbating the crisis include poor drainage networks, dam management and a lack of state preparation.

According to the latest IPCC report, Africa accounts for 17% of the global population and 3.8% of emissions. Call for richer nations who emit more to assist. The 2009 target to provide US$100 billion annually was never met.

QUESTIONS

What land-management solutions should be invested in to protect critical sectors (e.g. agriculture)? Can these be combined with ecological solutions (e.g. impact of rewilding strategies making soil 67 times more water absorbant).

Which infrastructure needs to be upgraded to make it more resilient, and how can richer nations support these projects?

Rowan Carew

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Welcome to Foreign Policy 's Africa Brief.

The highlights this week: African leaders demand United Nations Security Council reform, Guinea faces sanctions, and South Africa sells its new military aircraft.
If you would like to receive Africa Brief in your inbox every Wednesday, please sign up Floods Threaten Nigeria's Food Supply here.
Floods along Nigeria's borders with Niger, Chad, and Cameroon have killed hundreds of people and left tens of thousands homeless, according to local authorities.

The most affected areas in Cameroon and Nigeria are agricultural districts that supply the majority of food in the region, particularly rice fields. There is a looming health and nutrition crisis; in Kano State alone, more than 14,000 farms have been destroyed while the United Nations' humanitarian agency warns that a cholera outbreak is spreading among communities already displaced by insurgencies. There are reports of corpses being washed up from inundated cemeteries.

In Chad, the worst downpours experienced in 30 years continue and have affected more than 400,000 people since late August, according to the country's Ministry of Public Health and National Solidarity. In Niger, over the last week, the number of people affected by the floods increased 60 percent to 226,000 people, according to the U.N.

In an emergency meeting last week, the director-general of the Nigeria National Emergency Management Agency, Mustapha Habib Ahmed, said flooding has affected 29 out of Nigeria's 36 states, including the capital, Abuja, since February this year. Nigeria's hydrological agency issued alerts six months ago, but those early warning systems lacked detail about the severity, and there was a lack of adequate preparation by authorities. More than half a million people have been impacted, and 100,000 Nigerians are now living in shelters.

Poorly maintained drainage networks across Nigeria and a planned dam release this month in Cameroon have not helped matters. "The released water complicates the situation further downstream as Nigeria's inland reservoirs-including Kainji, Jebba, and Shiroro-are also expected to overflow between now and October," Ahmed said. Like the recent floods in Pakistan, officials neglected to invest in flood defenses that water experts had sounded the alarm on for years. Over the last decade, floods had become more frequent without any action being taken by the government to improve infrastructure.

Many houses and unofficial settlements in Nigeria-particularly in the financial capital of Lagos-are built in flood plains, leaving poorer communities dangerously vulnerable. Nigerian authorities are trying to address some of the country's challenges, but the sources of climate change are primarily elsewhere.

Indeed, Africa-despite making up 17 percent of the world's population-contributes just 3.8 percent of global carbon emissions but is experiencing the greatest effects, according to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Both the European Union climate chief Frans Timmermans and U.S. special envoy John Kerry argued this month that fixing the climate crisis should not be focused on who is responsible for creating the emissions.

At the U.N. General Assembly, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari rejected this argument-lambasting richer nations for failing to take action on their emissions. "We are, in effect, literally paying the price for policies that others pursue. This needs to change," he said. Buhari called on world leaders to honor their fiscal climate adaptation commitments. In 2009, richer nations committed to $100 billion of assistance annually for poorer countries to help them adapt to extreme weather events, but those funding targets have never been met.

"Africa's young people, the entire continent, are waiting for polluting countries to comply with promises made," Madagascar's president, Andry Rajoelina, said.

Wednesday, Sept. 28, to Friday, Sept. 30: The African Union hosts a workshop in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe, on its Continental Operational Centre for combating irregular migration.

Saturday, Oct. 1: Nigeria celebrates 62 years of independence from Britain.

Monday, Oct. 3, to Friday, Oct. 7: The Africa Oil Week conference is held in Cape Town, South Africa.

Africa wants a permanent seat. Senegalese President Macky Sall and current chairman of the African Union led calls by African countries-including Nigeria, Chad, and Ghana-for "just" representation on the world stage. At the U.N. General Assembly, Sall reminded his fellow world leaders that African leaders have demanded two permanent seats on the Security Council and that the continent does not wish to become the stage for another proxy war. "I have come to say that Africa has suffered enough of the burden of history, that it does not want to be the breeding ground of a new cold war," Sall said.

U.S. President Joe Biden called for reforms to allow the Security Council to become "more inclusive" and better able to respond to the world's needs. The United States "supports increasing the number of both permanent and nonpermanent representatives of the council," Biden said. "This includes permanent seats for those nations we've long supported and permanent seats for countries in Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean." The United States and Russia have expressed support for India and Brazil as the most likely candidates.

Observers perceived the remarks on Africa as politicking. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told African ministers last month that Tokyo would push for a permanent African seat. China promised the same. However, expansion of the council has been debated for decades with numerous proposals, each backed by a different set of countries, and there are still only five permanent members.

CAR constitution change. The Central African Republic's Constitutional Court on Friday annulled President Faustin-Archange Touadéra's decrees setting up a committee to rewrite the constitution to remove term limits so he can keep running for office. The court ruled the decrees "unconstitutional and invalid."

Touadéra was elected in 2016 and reelected in 2020 amid an offensive by rebel groups, including those backing ex-President François Bozizé. Touadéra sought the help of Russian military contractors to beat back attacks on the capital, Bangui. He has since relied on Russia's Wagner Group to maintain the government's security. Under the current constitution, he cannot run for a third term. (In recent years, the presidents of Rwanda, the Republic of Congo, Ivory Coast, and Guinea have pushed through constitutional or legal changes that allow them to stay in office.)

In Benin, President Patrice Talon is maneuvering to secure himself a third term. Despite rejecting military coups, as Adem K. Abebe, noted in Foreign Policy, the African Union "has repeatedly condoned constitutional maneuvers effectively establishing life presidencies."

Guinea sanctions. West African leaders will impose sanctions on individuals in Guinea's military government in response to last year's coup. Heads of state within the Economic Community of West African States made the decision while attending the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

Although the bloc has not decided who would be included on the list of "gradual sanctions," those within the Guinean junta will be identified "very soon." Guinea's military leaders say they need three years to return the country to democracy and reject the bloc's demand for a maximum two-year transition.

South African arms sales. A private South African firm has sold the first combat aircraft to be designed and made in the country in nearly two decades. Paramount Group announced it had sold nine of its Mwari aircraft, a precision-strike aircraft, to two undisclosed clients.

Paramount has so far invested more than $250 million in the aircraft's development as a lower-cost alternative to high-maintenance military spy planes used for counterinsurgency operations. A basic model costs around $10 million, with add-on options including advanced control systems, electronic intelligence-gathering, and night vision.

Alternatives to Eskom. The South African government signed the first of three agreements to increase its renewable energy supplies and reduce reliance on poorly maintained coal-fired power stations. The deal struck on Thursday was with independent producers to supply wind energy.

The state energy provider, Eskom, has suffered from a lack of investment, strikes, and allegations of corruption and mismanagement leading to unprecedented power outages. South Africa's GDP shrank by 0.7 percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to official figures released this month, in part due to rolling backouts.

Xenophobic attacks by anti-migrant vigilante groups have increased in South Africa, fueled by rhetoric from South African politicians that African migrants are to blame for an increase in crime and for the country's high unemployment rates.

One analysis published this month looking at data from between 2012 and 2017 suggests those arguments are misleading. Rather than taking jobs from South Africans, "there is evidence that the opposite is true-that immigrants often create employment for South Africans," the study found. World Bank data shows that "one immigrant worker generates approximately two jobs for locals."

Nigeria's "ghost soldiers." British government officials believe thousands of soldiers fighting terrorism in northern Nigeria "exist only on paper," according to government documents obtained by Declassified UK. British officials wrote of concerns over "cruel, inhumane" treatment by the Nigerian Army but still offered to lend the country 1.5 billion pounds (about $1.62 billion) to buy British weaponry, judging that Nigeria is the "third biggest supplier of oil to the UK."

British and U.S. governments continue to arm and train Nigeria's security forces, including its police, despite widespread abuses. According to Declassified, ministers planned to keep offering weaponry because they believed that "there would likely be minimal reporting from domestic media" in Britain about the sales or abuse, thereby avoiding reputational risk.

Kenya state plunder. A new platform created by the Nairobi-based Africa Uncensored catalogues corruption allegations involving Kenya's governments since 1978. The aggregated data set is based on financial scandals reported in Kenyan media outlets under each administration.

According to the data, former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta's administration had the biggest alleged misappropriation of funds, totaling 586.1 billion shillings (about $4.85 billion). However, it noted that "the information could be a reflection of reforms, such as the presence of more vigilant oversight agencies," according to Africa Uncensored.

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Hundreds of thousands of people are suffering in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger due to government failures to invest in preventive infrastructure.

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Climate change will force up to 113m people to relocate within Africa by 2050

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Climate change will force up to 113m people to relocate within Africa by 2050

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People expected to move elsewhere for better opportunities in the face of climate change will rise from 1.5% of Africa's population today to 5% by 2050 - representing 113 million people.

Most climate migration will take place within countries. "Cross-border climate mobility" is expected to reach 1.2 million people by 2050, a small proportion of the total 11-12 million people migrating across borders in Africa.

Climate change is negatively affecting economic opportunity in Africa. A study is cited showing that between 1991-2010, GDP per capita was 13.6% lower than it could have been were climate change not a factor. The agricultural, education and healthcare sectors will be badly impacted.

Coastal areas are expected to be hit hard. In the Horn of Africa, 9% of the total population could be forced to migrate.

Climate change affects the most vulnerable. Migration is an option of last resort which is only available to those with the financial and physical means of doing so. Those who cannot move risk becoming stranded, starving or forcefully evacuated.

The article discusses a number of actions. These include top-down and bottom-up solutions. The former refer to a proactive welfare state, financial investment into mitigation projects, protection for those moving, and a strategy to help those who must relocate. Bottom-up solutions involve community-led responses to lessen the impact of climate change, develop disaster-response mechanisms and co-operatively manage local natural resources.

QUESTION:

What policies can African states adopt to support those expected to migrate due to Climate Change? In particular, how are disaster-relief funds raised & distributed, and what protections are offered to people who are on the move?

Rowan Carew

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Climate change will force up to 113m people to relocate within Africa by 2050 - new report

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Millions of Africans could be uprooted or trapped where they are through climate-induced displacement and migration.

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-          The article tells the story of a family who have left their home after the 2021 flooding out of fear that it would happen again

-          Shows that there are different ways of reacting to environmental disasters (migration or hope/preparation/forgetting)

-          The family in the article regards themselves as climate refugees

QUESTIONS: Are the people who left the Ahrtal after the flooding in 2021 German climate refugees?
How do people in Germany react to environmental disasters?

POSSIBLE RESEARCH QUESTIONS: What are the defining characteristics of climate/environmental migration? What types of environmental migration do exist?

Sarah Nowak

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Das Wasser flutet das Haus. Als es immer weiter steigt, kommt auch die Angst. Das angrenzende Haus ihres Onkels ist höher, also steigt Henrichs aus dem Dachfenster, klettert hinüber, löst eine Wellplatte aus dem Dach. Dann, erzählt sie, habe sie nacheinander alle drei Kinder hinübergetragen. Ihr Vater kann kaum laufen, er bleibt zurück im Obergeschoss und versucht, das steigende Wasser herauszuschöpfen. Als der Pegel am höchsten steht, schwappt es ihm bis zu den Knöcheln. Am nächsten Morgen, als das Wasser nur noch knietief durch die Straße fließt, kommt ihr Schwager mit einer Leiter und holt alle fünf zu sich ins Haus gegenüber.

Sie schaue nun öfter nach dem Wetterbericht, sagt Henrichs. Wenn es viel regne, bekomme sie Angst. Die Angst gehört dazu, sie ist der Preis für das Bleiben, der Preis dafür, das Zuhause zu behalten. Sie ist die Kehrseite der Hoffnung.

"Nach der Flut hat's mich wieder hergezogen", erzählt Henrichs. Sie will bald wieder im Haus ihres Vaters wohnen. Ob sie keine Sorge habe, dass es wieder eine Flut gibt? "Doch", sagt Henrichs. Aber sie und ihre drei Geschwister sollen das Haus einmal erben. Und außerdem habe sie einen Notfallplan: Beim nächsten Starkregen will Henrichs mit ihrer Tochter sofort zu einer Freundin weiter oben am Berg fahren. Ausweise, den Grundriss vom Haus, all das habe sie nun immer in einer Aktentasche greifbar. "Man packt jetzt anders", sagt Henrichs.

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Anders als die Eltern, anders als die Großeltern. Die rechneten noch nicht mit einer nächsten Katastrophe. Zwischen zwei Fluten war immer gerade genug Zeit, um die verheerenden Folgen zu verdrängen. "Flutdemenz" nennen Beobachter das. Geograf Roggenkamp hat, als er im vergangenen Jahr im Ahrtal unterwegs war, mit vielen Menschen gesprochen. "Die Älteren sagten, die Flut von 1910 ist ihnen ein Begriff, die Großeltern haben davon erzählt." Doch viele kannten bis 2016 kein nennenswertes Hochwasser. Das beeinflusse, wie risikobewusst die Menschen sind, auch im Alltag: Ob sie bei Starkregen noch in den Keller gingen oder das Auto aus der Tiefgarage holten.

In Liers, der früheren Heimat der Mattschalls, ist bei dieser Flut niemand gestorben. Doch viele im Ahrtal kennen eine Familie, die eines der 134 Opfer zu beklagen hat. Zwei Menschen werden noch immer vermisst, fünf Suizide im Zusammenhang mit der Flut zählen Behörden. Und viele erzählen Geschichten wie jetzt Heiko Mattschall, während er seinen Mercedes durch das Tal lenkt: Dort in Ahrbrück habe ein Arzt die Hand seiner Frau nicht mehr festhalten können, die Flut riss sie und die gemeinsame Tochter mit, beide starben. So steht es auch in mehreren Medienberichten. Kurz darauf habe der Arzt Suizid begangen, sagt Mattschall. Doch eine Nachfrage bei Polizei und dem Opferbeauftragten von Rheinland-Pfalz ergibt: Von so einem Fall ist dort nichts bekannt. Ebensowenig wie von Kindern und Jugendlichen, die sich nach der Flut selbst getötet haben sollen - noch so eine falsche Geschichte, die sich verselbstständigt hat, durch das Tal geistert und die Flut im Nachhinein noch schrecklicher erscheinen lässt, als sie ohnehin schon war.

Obwohl der Fluss so viele Leben beendet und zerstört hat, scheinen sich viele Menschen im Ahrtal mit ihm versöhnen, ihn wieder umdeuten zu wollen von der tödlichen Gefahr zu einem Verbündeten. " We AHR Liers" steht an einem Bauzaun in dem Dorf, " You'll nevAHR walk alone" kurz vor Altenahr an der Straße, " We AHR back" kündigt ein Dienst für freiwillige Helfer auf einem Faltblatt an. Ohne den Fluss geht es nicht.

Doch Versöhnung mit dem Fluss allein reiche nicht, sagt Roggenkamp. Warum gibt es kein Flutmuseum, fragt er, warum keinen Flutalarm als Übung in der Schule? "Es muss viel stärker dafür gesorgt werden, dass das Risiko wahrgenommen wird." Die kollektive Erinnerung müsse hochgehalten werden. Immerhin erstelle das Landesumweltamt inzwischen Gefahrenkarten, die die historischen Hochwasser einbeziehen.

"Ich bewundere alle, die wieder aufbauen", sagt Heiko Mattschall. Hündin Elly rennt voraus, es ist ihr alter Spazierweg von Liers flussabwärts, die Bienen summen in den Apfelblüten. "Nicht abreißen!!" ist an die Wand eines kaputten Hauses gesprüht, in einer offenen Garage steht ein roter Nissan, bis oben voll mit Schlamm. In der Astgabelung eines Ahorns am Ufer, vier Meter über dem frisch asphaltierten Weg, hängt noch Treibgut. "Aber ob sie beim nächsten Mal dann wieder aufbauen?", fragt Mattschall. Viele werden in den kommenden Jahren noch aufgeben, glaubt er. So wie er und seine Frau. Ob er mit dem Begriff Klimaflüchtling etwas anfangen könne? Mattschall bleibt stehen, blinzelt in die Sonne. "Bin ich auch, ne?" sagt er. "Sind wir auch." Deutsche Klimaflüchtlinge. Hinter ihm rauscht die Ahr, unbeeindruckt.

Die einen gehen, aber andere kommen, auch das gehört zur Geschichte des Ahrtals ein Jahr nach der Flut. Mehr als 2.000 Menschen haben in den betroffenen Gemeinden und Städten zwischen Juli 2021 und Februar 2022 neu ihren Wohnsitz angemeldet. Obwohl ihnen die Linie an vielen Häusern auffallen müsste: die Linie aus Schlamm, die der Ausnahmepegel auf Häuserwände gezeichnet hat und die Spaziergängern allgegenwärtig macht, dass hier in der Nacht zum 15. Juli 2021 oft nicht einmal ihr Kopf aus dem Wasser geragt hätte. Auch auf dem Garagentor an Mattschalls früherem Haus ist sie zu sehen, weder er noch die neue Besitzerin haben sie entfernt.

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Flutkatastrophe im Ahrtal : Deutschlands Klimaflüchtlinge

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Das Wasser flutet das Haus. Als es immer weiter steigt, kommt auch die Angst. Das angrenzende Haus ihres Onkels ist höher, also steigt Henrichs aus dem Dachfenster, klettert hinüber, löst eine Wellplatte aus dem Dach. Dann, erzählt sie, habe sie nacheinander alle drei Kinder hinübergetragen.

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Climate change is forcing Kenyan women to leave their homes behind

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Climate change is forcing Kenyan women to leave their homes behind

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-          The article tells the story of Susan Akal, Rebecca Loro and Agnes Loro, three Kenyan women who had to leave their homes due to severe droughts or stayed while family members left (internal displacement, (im)mobilities)

-          Shows how (even internal) migration dramatically affects the lives of the (non)migrating women (family separation, more care work, taking over traditional men’s work in addition to care work, building a new life and finding new work, can often not leave – women and elderly people are often left behind, isolation, mental health problems, loss of identity)

-          Shows how women and elderly women are affected by the climate crisis in a particular way (intensifying marginalisations - intersectionality)

-          Highlights women’s agency and refuses the narrative of women “needing to be saved”

QUESTION: How are women in Kenya affected by migration due to the climate crisis?

POSSIBLE RESEARCH QUESTION: From an intersectional perspective, what is the role of women in environmental migration in Kenya and how are they affected by it?

Sarah Nowak

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Threatened by sea level rise: doing nothing is not an option

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Threatened by sea level rise: doing nothing is not an option

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Author: Bob van Huët

Date: 10.11.22

written after a dutch ambassador visited the island Tonga and was interviewed about the importance of action

600.000 people will become climate refugees from the Indian and Pacific Ocean

Articles tries to point out the urgency of the crises

talks about the potential role of the Netherlands in dealing with the crisis that sea level rise will cause on smaller islandes, for example in the combatting of salinization of groundwater and other solutions only focused on technological innovation

The Netherlands will lead a waterconference in New York talking also about solution for the Indian and Pacific Ocean

Question

What is the Dutch state doing to help smaller island states adapt to the sea level rise threats in the Indian and pacific ocean?

Why is rising sea level a problem?

link: https://www.parool.nl/wereld/bedreigd-door-de-stijgende-zeespiegel-niets-doen-is-geen-optie~b22e6270/

Eva Aarts

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Tuvalu could disappear into the sea within this century. It is already becoming unlivable. What happens to the inhabitants?

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Tuvalu could disappear into the sea within this century. It is already becoming unlivable. What happens to the inhabitants?

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Author: Meike Wijers

written within the context of the Sharm-el-Sheikh COP

interviews 3 Tuvaluan migrants that have moved to Auckland, some 24 years ago others more recent

There are two main ideas in the article:

the Tuvaluan people living abroad missing their island (nature, culture, specifically, the sea)

the feeling insecurity of what will happen with their identities with the island physically dissapearing.

Questions:

- What is happening with Tuvaluan citizens that have migrated to Auckland, New Zealand?

- How is it for these migrants to see the current and coming climate disasters on their island?

link: https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2022/11/11/tuvalu-vanuatu-kiribati-wat-gebeurt-met-de-inwoners-van-een-land-dat-in-zee-verdwijnt-a4147999

Eva Aarts

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[translation]COP27: what will become of the states and populations doomed to be swallowed up by the waters?

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[translation]COP27: what will become of the states and populations doomed to be swallowed up by the waters?

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-especially small island states like Tuvalu are directly threatened by rising sea levels
-representatives of presently threatened regions call upon world leaders for increased climate protection at the cop27 summit
-living alternatives, like floating cities, are sought for the population of unsalvageable regions
Question: Which living space alternatives are most effective in saving nations who lose their land to climate change?
Research Question: Are living space alternatives, like floating cities, a viable alternative to climate migration?

Hannah Müller

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Le projet Oceanix City pourrait accueillir 10 000 habitants. (OCEANIX / BIG - BJARKE INGELS GROUP)

À cause du réchauffement climatique, les océans vont gagner près d'un mètre supplémentaire autour des îles du Pacifique et de l'océan Indien d'ici la fin du siècle, selon les projections des scientifiques. Si cela reste certes en-dessous du point culminant des petits États insulaires les plus plats, la multiplication des tempêtes et des vagues-submersions aura toutefois raison des îles et atolls, les rendant inhabitables. Qu'adviendra-il alors des États et des populations qu'ils abritent ? De colloques en conférences internationales, les cris d'alarme se succèdent et la COP27 en Égypte est à nouveau l'occasion pour ces petits pays insulaires de plaider leur cause.
>> Montée des eaux : l'incroyable idée d'un barrage sur le détroit de Gibraltar refait surface
Hormis le mythe platonicien de l'Atlantide, cette île mythique de la taille d'un continent qui aurait brutalement sombré au-delà de Gibraltar quelque neuf millénaires avant J.C., la situation est inédite. Des États ont certes déjà disparu au cours de l'Histoire, absorbés ou divisés par les guerres, mais aucun n'a encore été totalement rayé de la carte par une catastrophe naturelle. Pourtant, ce sinistre scénario semble inévitable pour au moins cinq États insulaires d'ici la fin du siècle, selon les experts qui étudient les effets du réchauffement climatique.

Un pays rayé de la carte par la nature, un cas d'école

Le niveau moyen des mers et des océans a augmenté d'environ 23 cm depuis 1880 mais leur hausse s'est fortement accélérée ces 25 dernières années. D'après la National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), d'ici à 2050, il aura gagné 30 cm de plus et 77 cm d'ici 2100, selon le dernier rapport du Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (Giec). Combiné aux catastrophes naturelles qui vont se multiplier, les îles vont devenir inhabitables avant d'être avalées. Sont ainsi condamnées, selon le Giec, les Maldives (océan Indien), Kiribati et Tuvalu (Polynésie), les îles Marshall et Nauru (Océanie).

Au détour de l'océan Indien: les atolls des Maldives, coin de paradis menacé par la montée des eaux #changementclimatique #ODD #FridayIsland pic.twitter.com/i0bh982F2x
- Thomas Pesquet (@Thom_astro) April 28, 2017

Selon la Convention de Montevideo sur les droits et les devoirs des États de 1933, un État souverain est constitué d'un territoire défini, d'une population permanente, d'un gouvernement et de la capacité à interagir avec d'autres États. Quid du statut d'Etat quand le territoire disparaît ? Que reste-t-il aux yeux de la communauté internationale à ces Etats sans terres pour continuer à exister ?

Pour anticiper ce scénario catastrophe, la "plus grande tragédie qu'un peuple, qu'un pays, qu'une nation puisse affronter", selon les termes de l'ancien président des Maldives Mohamed Nasheed, plusieurs gouvernements du Pacifique ont lancé en septembre l'initiative Rising Nations. L'idée: "Convaincre les membres de l'ONU de reconnaître notre nation, même si nous sommes submergés par les eaux, parce que c'est notre identité", a déclaré le Premier ministre des Tuvalu Kausea Natano. Un "droit à une existence permanente" pour les petits États insulaires, défendu dès 2015 lors de la COP21 à Paris.

Comment fonctionneraient ces États-Nations 2.0 ? On pourrait avoir le territoire quelque part, la population ailleurs et le gouvernement à un troisième endroit, suggère Kamal Amakrane, directeur du Centre pour la mobilité climatique à l'Université Columbia. Cela nécessiterait d'abord une "déclaration politique" de l'ONU, puis un "traité" entre l'État menacé et un État dit " hôte", prêt à accueillir le gouvernement en exil dans une sorte d'ambassade permanente. Sa population aurait alors une double nationalité. Le processus politique doit être lancé "dès que possible" pour préserver les futurs États inhabitables, appelle Kamal Amakrane.

L'an dernier, lors de la COP26, le ministre de Affaires étrangères de l'archipel des Tuvalu, Simon Kofe, avait enregistré une déclaration les pieds dans l'eau pour marquer les esprits. Cette année, lors d'une conférence de presse en septembre, il a évoqué l'idée d'un " jumeau numérique" hébergé dans le métavers pour permettre à l'archipel de maintenir son statut d'État.

Petite subtilité tout de même : la Convention de Montevideo ne précise pas si, quand on parle de territoire, c'est de la terre ferme ou aussi du territoire maritime qu'il est question. Or, pour la République insulaire de Kiribati, par exemple, le détail est loin d'être anodin. Minuscule en termes de surface terrestre, elle possède en revanche l'une des zones économiques exclusives (ZEE) les plus grandes au monde avec ses 33 îles éparpillées sur 3,5 millions de km ² dans le Pacifique, ce qui rendrait sa disparition compliquée. Les membres du Forum des îles du Pacifique, dont l'Australie et la Nouvelle-Zélande, s'en sont déjà inquiétés. Ils ont proclamé dans une déclaration d'août 2021 que leurs zones maritimes "continueraient à s'appliquer, sans réduction, nonobstant tout changement physique lié à la hausse du niveau de la mer".

Des villes flottantes autonomes pour accueillir les populations?

Selon les projections du Giec, ce sont des millions de personnes qui risquent de perdre leur lieu de vie, voire donc aussi leur pays et leur identité pour quelque 600 000 futurs "réfugiés climatiques apatrides". Les États littoraux se sont tous lancés dans des travaux d'aménagements pour tenter de contenir les eaux. En marge de la COP27, l'archipel des Tuvalu a rappelé lundi 7 novembre travailler à un plan avec le soutien du Programme des Nations Unies pour le développement (PNUD) : "Te Lafiga o Tuvalu" (le refuge de Tuvalu). Pour l'heure, il ne s'agit que de modélisation mais le plan est ambitieux, prévoyant une élévation des sols de la capitale sur 3,6 kilomètres carrés et une relocalisation des habitants et des infrastructures stratégiques comme les hôpitaux ou les écoles

Mais ces aménagements ne feront sans doute que retarder le pire. D'après le rapport de l'Organisation météorologique mondiale publié le 6 novembre, l a fonte des glaciers est spectaculaire. La Suisse a par exemple perdu 6% de glace entre 2021 et 2022 et globalement, les glaciers alpins ont perdu entre trois et quatre mètres d'épaisseur en 2022.

En 1995, le film Waterworld avec Kevin Costner projetait un tel monde, transformé en immense océan. Pour survivre, les humains avaient bâti avec les débris de l'ancien monde des villes flottantes. "Les humains sont ingénieux, ils trouveront des moyens flottants pour continuer à vivre là", assure l'ancien président des Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, évoquant des villes flottantes.

Vivre sur l'eau ? Le concept suit son chemin malgré quelques doutes sur sa viabilité. Et justement, aux Maldives, le gouvernement va mener une expérience pilote : en janvier sera lancé le chantier de Maldives Flotting City (MFC), une ville flottante composée d'un assemblage de plateformes proposant au total 5 000 maisons pouvant accueillir quelque 20 000 personnes et vendues autour de 250 000 euros l'unité, 150 000 euros pour un appartement [ selon les données de la Banque mondiale, le salaire mensuel moyen aux Maldives en 2019 s'élevait à 806 dollars contre 906 dollars en moyenne dans le reste du monde].

L'installation prendra place à l'intérieur d'un lagon de 200 hectares protégé des vagues par une barrière de corail, à 10 minutes de bateau de la capitale Malé. Conçu par les architectes néerlandais de Waterstudio et réalisé par l'entreprise Dutch Docklands, le projet a concouru en mars dernier au salon mondial de l'immobilier (Mipim) à Cannes (Alpes-Maritimes). "Pas un luxe mais une nécessité", a insisté auprès de l'AFP Paul van de Camp, le promoteur du projet, alors que 80% du territoire est à moins d'un mètre au-dessus du niveau de la mer. Le président maldivien estime que ce projet pourrait être achevé d'ici 2027.

Un autre projet a été dévoilé le 26 avril 2022 au siège des Nations Unies, celui d'une ville flottante durable dont le prototype sera testé dans la ville portuaire de Busan (Corée du Sud). Cette Atlantide 2.0 imaginée par l'architecte danois Bjarke Ingels et la start-up Oceanix a été baptisée Oceanix City. Livrable en 2025, elle relève plusieurs défis : être durable et autosuffisante.

L'Oceanix City de Busan sera composée de six plateformes hexagonales modulables de deux hectares pouvant accueillir chacune 300 personnes. Extensible, la ville pourra abriter jusqu'à 100 000 personnes, selon l'architecte. Chaque "quartier" a un rôle assigné, nourriture, habitat, recherche etc. dans le but d'une parfaite autonomie. Jardins et serres sont prévus pour cultiver les fruits et légumes ainsi que des fermes sous-marines... toute la nourriture est produite sur place. Un matériau durable, le biorock, sera utilisé pour la construction. On s'en sert déjà pour réparer les dommages causés aux récifs coralliens car non seulement il absorbe les minéraux de l'eau de mer pour fabriquer naturellement un revêtement de calcaire plus résistant que le béton classique, mais il est également autosuffisant et se répare seul au fil du temps. L'eau sera récupérée de la pluie ou de la mer, désalinisée, recyclée en circuit fermé, l'énergie sera fournie par des panneaux solaires, des mini-éoliennes et des bouées flottantes, chargées de convertir l'énergie des vagues en électricité. Côté mobilité, seuls les vélos, drones et véhicules 100% propres seront autorisés. Enfin les déchets seront automatiquement collectés et acheminés pour retraitement via des réseaux de tuyaux. Coût estimé : près de 630 millions d'euros. Ces villes "ne sont pas consommatrices de ressources, mais au contraire, permettent de régénérer l'Océan", affirme Marc Collins Chen, co-fondateur et PDG d'Oceanix.

En obtenant le soutien d'ONU-Habitat, le Programme des Nations unies pour les établissements humains, Marc Collins Chen veut s'assurer que son projet ne sera pas phagocyté par les promoteurs immobiliers. "Il est impossible que cette initiative se transforme en un scénario dans lequel les riches regardent les pauvres suffoquer sur la plage", insiste-t-il.

La question du financement des "pertes et préjudices" causés par les impacts du réchauffement est l'un des point brûlants de la COP27 en Égypte car les États les plus menacés n'ont pas les ressources pour financer seuls des solutions comme les villes-flottantes. Ils réclament donc le soutien financier des pays riches, responsables du réchauffement climatique. La menace des eaux ne pèse pas seulement sur quelques États insulaires. La vie de près de 1,4 milliard de personnes vivant sur les littoraux est menacée. Plus de 280 millions de personnes risquent de devenir des "réfugiés climatiques". En France, c'est près d'un demi-million de personnes qui seront sans doute contraintes d'abandonner leur lieu de vie, principalement en Nouvelle-Aquitaine et dans les Hauts-de-France.

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COP27 : que vont devenir les États et les populations voués à être engloutis par les eaux ?

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D'ici la fin de ce siècle, quelque 600 000 personnes vont se retrouver "réfugiés climatiques apatrides" et des centaines de millions d'autres SDF, en raison de l'élévation du niveau des eaux. Sans habitat ou sans pays, quel avenir les attend ?

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[translation]Migration: is the world ready for massive displacements of people due to climate change?

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[translation]Migration: is the world ready for massive displacements of people due to climate change?

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-in 2022 the number of people forced to migrate due to climate change will reach 100 million, this number only keeps growing
-destination countries frequently do not accept migrants and leave dozens of people seeking help to die at their borders
-the population keeps growing especially in the places that are likely to be affected most by climate change
-migrants contribute around 10% to global GDP
Question: With regard to these future prospects, are national borders an outdated and adverse concept?
Research Question: To what extent do national borders influence the dynamics of global climate migration?
Hannah Müller

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Alors que l'on s'attend à ce que trois milliards de personnes soient déplacées par les effets du réchauffement climatique d'ici la fin du siècle, cela devrait-il conduire à un changement dans notre façon de penser les frontières nationales, demande Gaia Vince ?

J'ai une obsession pour les cartes depuis que j'ai cherché pour la première fois à m'orienter dans le "Bois des Cent-Aker" de Winnie l'ourson, en essayant de découvrir les endroits "agréables pour les piknicks" et l'emplacement des maisons des personnages.

J'ai passé mon enfance à étudier et à dessiner des cartes au trésor, à cartographier des terres imaginaires et à tracer des itinéraires vers des lieux lointains que j'avais hâte de visiter.

Aujourd'hui, ma maison est tapissée de cartes que j'ai collectionnées ou que l'on m'a offertes - des rappels de lieux qui me sont chers. Près de mon bureau, j'ai une grande carte du monde, dont les continents se distinguent des océans par leur mosaïque de couleurs. Chaque tache de couleur est un pays, séparé de son voisin par une ligne nette tracée sur cette représentation bidimensionnelle de notre monde.

Les frontières sont proprement définies, l'encre séparant des nationalités destinées à des destins différents. Pour moi, ces lignes marquent des possibilités excitantes, avec un potentiel d'exploration et d'aventure, pour visiter des cultures étrangères avec des aliments et des langues différents. Pour d'autres, elles sont des murs de prison qui limitent toutes les possibilités.

Les frontières définissent notre destin, notre espérance de vie, notre identité, et bien plus encore. Pourtant, elles sont une invention, tout comme les cartes que j'avais l'habitude de dessiner. Nos frontières n'existent pas comme des facettes immuables du paysage, elles ne sont pas des parties naturelles de notre planète, et ont été inventées relativement récemment.

On peut toutefois faire valoir que la plupart de ces lignes imaginaires ne sont pas adaptées au monde du 21e siècle, avec sa population galopante, son changement climatique dramatique et la rareté des ressources. En effet, l'idée de garder les étrangers à l'extérieur en utilisant les frontières est relativement récente.

Autrefois, les États se souciaient bien plus d'empêcher les gens de partir que de les empêcher d'arriver. Ils avaient besoin de leur main-d'œuvre et de leurs impôts, et l'émigration constitue toujours un casse-tête pour de nombreux États.

Il existe cependant de véritables frontières humaines fixées non pas par la politique ou des souverains héréditaires, mais par les propriétés physiques de notre planète. Ces frontières planétaires pour notre espèce de mammifères sont définies par la géographie et le climat. Les humains ne peuvent pas vivre en grand nombre en Antarctique ou dans le désert du Sahara, par exemple.

À mesure que les températures mondiales augmentent, entraînant un changement climatique, une élévation du niveau de la mer et des conditions météorologiques extrêmes au cours des prochaines décennies, de grandes parties du monde qui abritent certaines des populations les plus importantes deviendront de plus en plus difficiles à vivre. Les côtes, les États insulaires et les grandes villes des tropiques seront parmi les plus durement touchés, selon les prévisions des climatologues.

Incapables de s'adapter à des conditions de plus en plus extrêmes, des millions - voire des milliards - de personnes devront se déplacer.

Crédit photo, Getty Images

Légende image,

Les frontières sont aujourd'hui souvent un obstacle à la circulation, mais cela pourrait-il changer à l'avenir ?

La majeure partie de la population mondiale est concentrée entre les 25e et 26e parallèles nord, qui sont traditionnellement les latitudes où le climat est le plus agréable et les terres les plus fertiles. On estime que 279 millions de personnes sont entassées dans cette mince bande de terre, qui traverse des pays comme l'Inde, le Pakistan, le Bangladesh, la Chine, les États-Unis et le Mexique.

Mais les conditions y sont en train de changer. En moyenne, les niches climatiques, c'est-à-dire la gamme de conditions dans lesquelles les espèces peuvent normalement exister, se déplacent vers le pôle à un rythme de 1,15 m par jour, bien que ce soit beaucoup plus rapide dans certains endroits.

Pour s'adapter à l'évolution du climat, il faudra suivre l'évolution de notre propre niche - qui, pendant la plus grande partie de l'histoire de l'humanité, s'est située dans une fourchette de températures allant de -11°C à 15°C (12F à 59F) - au fur et à mesure qu'elle migre vers le nord de l'équateur.

Les véritables limites de l'habitabilité sont les frontières dont nous devons nous préoccuper alors que le monde se réchauffe au cours de ce siècle, entraînant une chaleur insupportable, des sécheresses, des inondations, des incendies, des tempêtes et une érosion côtière qui rendent l'agriculture impossible et déplacent les populations.

Chaque année, un nombre record de personnes sont contraintes de fuir leur foyer. En 2021, on comptait 89,3 millions de personnes, soit le double du nombre de personnes déplacées de force il y a dix ans, et en 2022, ce nombre atteindra 100 millions, les catastrophes climatiques déplaçant beaucoup plus de personnes que les conflits.

Les inondations ont déplacé 33 millions de personnes au Pakistan cette année, tandis que des millions d'autres personnes en Afrique ont été touchées par la sécheresse et la menace de famine, de la Corne de l'Afrique à la côte ouest du continent.

Le Haut-Commissaire des Nations unies pour les réfugiés, Filippo Grandi, a appelé les dirigeants mondiaux présents à la conférence sur le changement climatique COP27 à prendre des mesures audacieuses pour faire face aux conséquences humanitaires du réchauffement de la planète. Ce changement doit être "transformationnel", selon le HCR. "Nous ne pouvons pas laisser des millions de personnes déplacées et leurs hôtes affronter seuls les conséquences du changement climatique", déclare M. Grandi.

Les migrants représentent environ 10 % du PIB mondial, soit 6,7 milliards de dollars (5,9 milliards de livres).

Si rien n'est fait, des centaines de millions de personnes devront quitter leur foyer d'ici 2050, selon certaines estimations. Une étude réalisée en 2020 prévoit que d'ici 2070, en fonction des scénarios de croissance démographique et de réchauffement, "un à trois milliards de personnes devraient se trouver en dehors des conditions climatiques qui ont bien servi l'humanité au cours des 6 000 dernières années".

Avec autant de personnes en mouvement, cela signifie-t-il que les frontières politiques inventées, ostensiblement imposées pour la sécurité nationale, deviendront de plus en plus insignifiantes ? La menace posée par le changement climatique et ses répercussions sociales éclipsent celles de la sécurité nationale. Les vagues de chaleur tuent déjà plus de personnes que celles qui meurent en conséquence directe de la violence des guerres.

En outre, la population mondiale continue de croître, en particulier dans certaines des régions les plus touchées par le changement climatique et la pauvreté. La population de l'Afrique devrait presque tripler d'ici 2100, alors même que la croissance des autres régions ralentit.

Cela signifie qu'il y aura un plus grand nombre de personnes dans les régions mêmes qui risquent d'être les plus touchées par la chaleur extrême, la sécheresse et les tempêtes catastrophiques. Un plus grand nombre de personnes auront également besoin de nourriture, d'eau, d'électricité, de logements et de ressources, alors même que ces besoins deviennent de plus en plus difficiles à satisfaire.

Dans le même temps, la plupart des pays du Nord sont confrontés à une crise démographique, les gens ne faisant pas assez d'enfants pour soutenir une population vieillissante. Une migration massive gérée pourrait donc contribuer à résoudre bon nombre des plus grands problèmes du monde, en réduisant le nombre de personnes vivant dans la pauvreté et la dévastation du climat, et en aidant les économies du Nord à développer leur main-d'œuvre.

Mais le principal obstacle est notre système de frontières - les restrictions de mouvement imposées soit par le propre État d'une personne, soit par les États dans lesquels elle souhaite entrer. Aujourd'hui, un peu plus de 3 % de la population mondiale sont des migrants internationaux.

Cependant, les migrants contribuent à environ 10 % du PIB mondial, soit 6,7 milliards de dollars (5,9 milliards de livres) - quelque 3 milliards de dollars (2,6 milliards de livres) de plus que ce qu'ils auraient produit dans leur pays d'origine. Certains économistes, comme Michael Clemens du Center for Global Development aux États-Unis, estiment que la libre circulation pourrait doubler le PIB mondial.

En outre, nous assisterions à une augmentation de la diversité culturelle, dont les études montrent qu'elle améliore l'innovation. À une époque où nous devons résoudre des problèmes environnementaux et sociaux sans précédent, cela pourrait être exactement ce dont nous avons besoin.

Crédit photo, Getty Images

Légende image,

Après la Seconde Guerre mondiale, la Grande-Bretagne a encouragé l'immigration en provenance des pays du Commonwealth afin de pallier la pénurie de main-d'œuvre.

Supprimer les frontières ou les rendre beaucoup plus flexibles, notamment en ce qui concerne les flux de main-d'œuvre, pourrait améliorer la résistance de l'humanité aux contraintes et aux chocs du changement climatique mondial. Bien gérée, la migration pourrait profiter à tous.

Et si nous considérions la planète comme un patrimoine mondial de l'humanité, dans lequel les gens seraient libres de se déplacer où ils le souhaitent ? Nous aurions besoin d'un nouveau mécanisme pour gérer la mobilité de la main-d'œuvre mondiale de manière beaucoup plus efficace et efficiente - il s'agit de notre plus grande ressource économique, après tout. Il existe déjà des accords commerciaux mondiaux de grande envergure pour la circulation d'autres ressources et produits, mais peu traitent de la circulation de la main-d'œuvre.

Environ 60% de la population mondiale a moins de 40 ans, dont la moitié (et de plus en plus) a moins de 20 ans, et elle constituera la majorité de la population mondiale pour le reste du siècle. Nombre de ces jeunes demandeurs d'emploi pleins d'énergie feront probablement partie de ceux qui se déplaceront à mesure que le climat changera - contribueront-ils à la croissance économique pour construire des sociétés durables, ou leurs talents seront-ils gaspillés ?

Le débat sur les migrations s'est figé sur ce qui devrait être autorisé, plutôt que sur la planification de ce qui se produira. Je pense que les nations doivent passer de l'idée de contrôler les migrations à celle de les gérer.

Au minimum, nous avons besoin de nouveaux mécanismes pour la migration économique légale de la main-d'œuvre et la mobilité, et d'une bien meilleure protection pour ceux qui fuient le danger. Chacun pourrait se voir offrir une forme officielle de citoyenneté des Nations unies en plus de sa citoyenneté de naissance.

Pour certaines personnes, comme celles qui sont nées dans des camps de réfugiés, qui n'ont pas de papiers, ou les citoyens de petits États insulaires qui cesseront d'exister dans le courant du siècle, la citoyenneté des Nations unies pourrait bien être leur seul accès à la reconnaissance et à l'aide internationales, même si la citoyenneté est un droit humain. Des passeports pourraient être délivrés sur cette base.

Le théoricien politique David Held a affirmé que nous avons dépassé nos frontières nationales grâce à la mondialisation croissante et que nous vivons désormais dans des "communautés de destin qui se chevauchent", à partir desquelles nous devrions former une démocratie cosmopolite au niveau mondial.

Aujourd'hui, nous vivons une crise planétaire et je crois qu'il est temps de nous considérer comme les membres d'une seule et même espèce mondialement dispersée qui doit coopérer pour survivre. L'ampleur de la crise climatique exige une nouvelle coopération mondiale et, je crois, une nouvelle citoyenneté internationale avec des organismes mondiaux pour la migration et pour la biosphère - de nouvelles autorités payées par nos impôts et devant lesquelles les États-nations sont responsables.

Actuellement, les Nations unies n'ont aucun pouvoir exécutif sur les États-nations, mais cela pourrait bien devoir changer si nous voulons faire baisser les températures mondiales, réduire la concentration de dioxyde de carbone dans l'atmosphère et restaurer la biodiversité de la planète.

La gouvernance mondiale pourrait également s'avérer utile pour coordonner l'immense nouvelle main-d'œuvre mobile, peut-être en utilisant un système de quotas internationaux pour aider à affecter les personnes à des postes lors des migrations climatiques massives de ce siècle. Mais elle serait également confrontée aux défis créés par la bureaucratie, la corruption et le lobbying de puissantes entreprises.

Toutefois, la gouvernance mondiale doit également s'appuyer sur des États forts. La tension entre les désirs et les besoins de l'individu et de la société est bien réelle pour nous tous, et elle est déjà difficile à concilier lorsque notre société est un petit groupe très soudé, sans parler de la population de la planète entière.

Il est difficile de se soucier, par exemple, d'un étranger sans nom et sans visage dans un pays que vous n'avez jamais visité, alors que vous faites des choix concernant votre propre vie dans une ville située à des milliers de kilomètres de lui. La plupart des gens trouvent difficile de concilier les besoins d'un étranger situé à une rue de chez eux.

Les États-nations qui réussissent aident à gérer cette situation grâce à des structures et des institutions qui garantissent un niveau utile de coopération entre les étrangers, ce qui nourrit une société forte dans laquelle nous pouvons tous réussir. En tant qu'individus, nous faisons volontiers de petits sacrifices quotidiens de temps, d'énergie et de ressources - en payant des impôts, par exemple - pour assurer le fonctionnement de nos sociétés. La plupart d'entre nous le font parce que c'est notre société, notre famille sociale, notre État-nation.

L'invention de l'État-nation a été un outil très puissant pour nous permettre de coopérer aussi bien. Comme l'a dit le théoricien politique David Miller : "Les nations sont des communautés qui font des choses ensemble".

Il semblerait donc peu judicieux d'essayer de démanteler complètement ou d'abandonner notre système géopolitique actuel dans le peu de temps dont nous disposons pour nous préparer aux perturbations massives qui devraient se produire au cours de ce siècle.

Seuls des États-nations forts seront capables de mettre en place les systèmes de gouvernance qui aideront notre espèce à survivre au changement climatique. Seuls des États-nations forts seront capables de gérer un mouvement massif de migrants de différentes géographies et cultures vers la population indigène.

Il faudra peut-être plutôt un mélange d'internationalisme et de nationalisme.

Au cours des dernières décennies, la croissance de la mondialisation a conduit à un plus grand internationalisme - un citoyen de Londres peut souvent se sentir plus proche d'un citoyen d'Amsterdam ou de Taïwan que d'un citoyen d'une petite ville de campagne en Grande-Bretagne.

Cela n'a peut-être pas d'importance pour de nombreux citadins prospères, mais les natifs de zones plus rurales peuvent se sentir abandonnés par leur propre pays, à mesure que les industries autrefois dominantes déclinent et que les espaces sociaux et les traditions culturelles s'amenuisent. Cela crée un ressentiment et une peur du type de ceux qui peuvent conduire à des préjugés contre les immigrants, comme on l'a vu dans certaines parties du Royaume-Uni pendant le débat sur le Brexit.

Crédit photo, Getty Images

Légende image,

Les inondations au Bangladesh, en Inde et au Pakistan ont déplacé des millions de personnes en 2022.

Cependant, l'ouverture des frontières ne signifie pas nécessairement l'absence de frontières ou l'abolition des États-nations. Il peut être nécessaire d'explorer différents types d'États-nations, avec différentes options de gouvernance.

Les États les plus touchés par le changement climatique achèteront-ils ou loueront-ils des territoires dans des endroits plus sûrs ? Ou bien verrons-nous des villes fondées sur des chartes qui fonctionnent selon des juridictions et des règles différentes de celles du territoire qui les entoure, ou encore des États flottants qui construisent de nouveaux territoires sur les vagues ?

Il faudra travailler à réinventer le concept d'État-nation pour qu'il devienne plus inclusif et qu'il renforce les liens locaux tout en créant des réseaux mondiaux plus vastes et plus équitables.

Il y a de multiples avantages à encourager les points communs, une parenté avec nos semblables, sur la base de notre projet de société partagé, de notre langue et de nos œuvres culturelles. Ces traits sont suffisamment importants pour que le patriotisme devienne une puissante source d'identité.

Alors pourquoi ne pas susciter également un sentiment patriotique à l'égard de l'air, de la terre et de l'eau de nos nations, afin d'encourager les gens à en prendre soin ? Une approche, puisque nous sommes tous confrontés à des menaces environnementales, pourrait consister à faire participer l'armée et d'autres institutions de sécurité à la lutte contre le changement climatique.

Le service national pour les jeunes citoyens et les immigrés afin d'aider aux secours en cas de catastrophe, à la restauration de la nature, aux efforts agricoles et sociaux pourrait être une autre étape créatrice de solidarité. Enfin, nous devrons peut-être restaurer ou inventer de nouvelles traditions nationales bénéfiques pour l'environnement ou la société, et pour lesquelles les citoyens peuvent éprouver de la fierté et du respect.

Il pourrait s'agir de groupes et de clubs sociaux qui chantent, créent, font du sport ou se produisent ensemble, et auxquels les membres peuvent appartenir à vie. Ces traditions peuvent contribuer à préserver la dignité dans les moments difficiles et à donner aux immigrants un sens patriotique auquel s'assimiler.

Le nouveau récit patriotique pourrait porter sur le nationalisme civique, fondé sur le bien commun, avec des droits et des devoirs, et un attachement culturel passionné à la nature, ainsi qu'à la protection et à la conservation des lieux d'importance nationale (ou internationale).

Le Costa Rica, par exemple, a adopté le terme pura vida, qui signifie en gros "bonne vie", comme éthique, mantra et identité nationale. Son utilisation s'est généralisée à partir des années 1970, lorsque les réfugiés des violents conflits qui sévissaient dans les pays voisins (Guatemala, Nicaragua et Salvador) se sont installés en grand nombre dans le pays.

Le Costa Rica, petit pays d'Amérique centrale qui n'a pas d'armée permanente et investit massivement dans la protection et la restauration de la nature, ainsi que dans les services sociaux tels que la santé et l'éducation, a utilisé cette conception de la vie pour définir son caractère et intégrer les nouveaux immigrants.

"Une personne qui choisit d'utiliser cette expression ne fait pas seulement allusion à cette idéologie et à cette identité communes, elle construit en même temps cette identité en l'exprimant", explique Anna Marie Trester de l'université de New York. "Le langage est un outil très important de construction de soi".

Cela nous offre une nouvelle façon d'envisager la fierté nationale. Il ne s'agit pas nécessairement de considérer que "votre peuple" est meilleur que celui des autres nations, ni de centraliser le sens et le pouvoir. Au contraire, elle peut impliquer la dévolution des traditions et une appréciation de la régionalité et de l'énorme valeur culturelle des nouveaux citoyens.

L'Union européenne est un exemple d'identité supranationale qui permet aux citoyens de se sentir européens et de s'identifier aux valeurs de l'UE, sans pour autant devoir renoncer à leur identité nationale.

Une idée similaire peut s'appliquer aussi bien au sein des nations qu'entre elles. Au Royaume-Uni, par exemple, le quartier chinois de Londres est, à juste titre, une destination touristique très visitée, tout comme Little India - ils font partie de l'identité de la nation, même si les Britanniques d'origine chinoise et les Indiens d'origine britannique sont souvent victimes de préjugés et de désavantages socio-économiques.

Pour gagner la fierté nationale plutôt que de subir le tribalisme qui divise, une nation doit réduire les inégalités. L'État doit investir dans le peuple pour que le peuple se sente investi dans l'État. Cela signifie qu'il doit accorder la priorité aux questions sociales et environnementales de manière à ce qu'elles profitent à tous, et non à une petite tribu d'aristocrates mondiaux.

Les Green New Deals proposés dans l'Union européenne et aux États-Unis sont des exemples de politiques visant à restaurer les économies, à fournir des emplois et à renforcer la dignité tout en aidant à unir les gens dans un plus grand projet social de transformation environnementale.

Essayez, si vous le voulez bien, de chasser de votre esprit l'idée que les gens sont fixés à un endroit où ils sont nés, comme si cela affectait votre valeur en tant que personne ou vos droits en tant qu'individu. Comme si la nationalité était autre chose qu'une ligne arbitraire tracée sur une carte. Voyez plutôt ces lignes comme des fusions de richesses culturelles, des transitions plutôt que des barrières à travers les possibilités que les terres de la Terre nous offrent à tous.

*Gaia Vince est l'auteur de Nomad Century : How to Survive the Climate Upheaval et est journaliste scientifique et diffuseur indépendant.

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Le monde est-il prêt pour une migration massive due au changement climatique - BBC News Afrique

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Alors que l'on s'attend à ce que trois milliards de personnes soient déplacées par les effets du réchauffement climatique d'ici la fin du siècle, cela devrait-il conduire à un changement dans notre façon de penser les frontières nationales, demande Gaia Vince ?

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From WA to Alaska, coastal tribes face displacement with insufficient financial help

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From WA to Alaska, coastal tribes face displacement with insufficient financial help

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https://crosscut.com/news/2022/04/wa-alaska-coastal-tribes-face-displacement-insufficient-financial-help

This article tells the story of the Yup’ik people who have to leave their 'native lands' due to its erosion caused by rising sea levels. It tells their story, their struggle with politicians and the bureaucracy to organise the migration of their people to another place suitable for living the way they want to. Thereby, this piece demonstrates the importance of including the communities affected by disaster, climate change... in the process of deciding which measures to take in order to mitigate their hardship.

Q: How does the Yup'ik community perceive the measurements taken by state authorities to relocate their village?

RQ: How does the relocation of the Yup'ik community to a place outside of their 'ancestral lands' influence their cultural practices?

Luis Willis

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From WA to Alaska, coastal tribes face displacement with insufficient financial help

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A new documentary spotlights efforts of the Yup'ik people of Alaska to relocate from their ancestral lands because of sea level rise.

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How climate migrants can help power the clean economy

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How climate migrants can help power the clean economy

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The article makes the case for more legal migration to sustain economic growth in high income countries:
-Migration can help to compensate for labour shortages in high-income counties with shrinking populations (Canada is discussed exemplarily)
-During the transition towards a clean economy, many green-economy sectors will face even greater labour shortages
-High income/industrialised states should enable more migration by proactively creating legal pathways especially in areas facing increased vulnerability due to climate change
The argument itself could be considered valuable (if ur not in the degrowth camp). It can be used to counter xenophobic fear of migration by arguing that it is actually beneficial for 'us' because it secures economic growth. At the same time, this pure receiving country perspective reduces individual human beings, migrating for various reasons to far away places, to a labour force.

Q: Is migration beneficial for receiving countries?

RQ: What impact does emigration of skilled labour force in country/region xyz have on the structure and organisation of local/national economies?

Luis Willis

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How climate migrants can help power the clean economy | Corporate Knights

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Those fleeing the fall-out from the climate crisis could fill green growth areas

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Women, the most affected by the climate crisis in Central America's Dry Corridor.

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Women, the most affected by the climate crisis in Central America's Dry Corridor.

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According to a study made by Oxfam, women are the most affected by the effects of the climate crisis in the Central American Dry Corridor (a region in Central America characterized by extreme climatic conditions) due to the conditions of poverty and gender inequality in which they live. For example, when natural disasters cause crop losses, women are usually the first responsibles for ensuring the survival of families and providing them access to water, food, among others. In adittion, women are the ones who perform the greatest proportion of household and care tasks.

Questions:
-How is the gender equation regarding the climate crisis in the Central American Dry Corridor?
-Why are women the most affected by the effects of the climate crisis in the Central American Dry Corridor?

Paola Jiménez de León

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Noticias de El Salvador - La Prensa Gráfica | Informate con la verdad

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Las mujeres son las más afectadas por las sequías prolongadas y las lluvias torrenciales derivadas de la crisis climática en el corredor seco centroamericano debido a las condiciones de pobreza y de desigualdad en la que viven, alertó la organización humanitaria Oxfam.

"Las mujeres son vulnerabilizadas por las condiciones sociales, políticas, económicas y por el impacto de la crisis climáticas", dijo a EFE Carlos Aguilar, responsable de Justicia Climática para América Latina de Oxfam.

Afirmó que las mujeres están en "la primera línea de efectos colaterales de los fenómenos climáticos extremos" y, además, son las que realizan en mayor proporción las tareas del hogar y de cuidados. "Hemos podido constatar que cuando hay carencia de alimentos, las mujeres son las que menos comen o las últimas en comer, primero comen los varones y los niños; si alcanza, comen ellas", señaló Aguilar.

El cambio climático "profundiza los grados de vulnerabilidad" de las mujeres en el corredor seco, donde ellas también son víctimas de la cultura patriarcal y machista, agregó. Según el estudio "La Vida entre Pérdidas y Daños: Narrativas Centroamericanas", citado por Aguilar, las personas pobres, especialmente las productoras agrícolas, son más dependientes de las condiciones ambientales y de los recursos naturales, por lo que se ven afectadas de manera desproporcionada por el cambio climático.

"Las mujeres se ven más impactadas por el cambio climático debido a que un porcentaje importante viven en condiciones de extrema pobreza, sumado a esto las desigualdades de género, ya que son usualmente las responsables de asegurar la supervivencia de las familias y proveer acceso a agua, alimentos, vestido, y combustibles", destaca el documento.

Los efectos del cambio climático "van a continuar agravándose" en el corredor seco centroamericano, una de las zonas más vulnerables del mundo a fenómenos climáticos y en los últimos años está viviendo episodios de extremas sequías y lluvias más intensas, indicó Aguilar.

Aseguró que los efectos del calentamiento global "se ven exponencialmente acrecentados por la situación de pobreza y desigualdad" que vive el corredor seco centroamericano, que abarca las costas pacíficas de Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica y Panamá.

Las inundaciones y sequías en el corredor seco centroamericano, donde viven el 50 % de los casi dos millones de pequeños productores de granos básicos de la región, son responsables de la pérdida de cultivos, generalmente maíz y frijoles, lo que obliga a muchas familias a desplazarse forzosamente, precisó el experto de Oxfam.

Muchas familias tienen que "migrar porque pierden sus cosechas, sus medios de vida, las condiciones laborales y aquellos medios que les permiten la subsistencia", explicó.

El desplazamiento forzado por la pérdida de sus medios de vida tiene un impacto "muy serio", porque supone "una situación de desarraigo" para las familias, añadió Aguilar.

Destacó la "urgencia" de atender a las personas afectadas por la crisis climática, ya que para esas familias es "una condición de vida o muerte".

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Mujeres, las más afectadas por crisis climática en el corredor seco de centroamérica

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Las mujeres son las más afectadas por las sequías prolongadas y las lluvias torrenciales derivadas de la crisis climática en el corredor seco centroamericano debido a las condiciones de pobreza y de desigualdad en la que viven, alertó la organización humanitaria Oxfam.

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'Not the result of lobbyists or another country's government': Activists celebrate TPS extension

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'Not the result of lobbyists or another country's government': Activists celebrate TPS extension

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This new is about the extension of the TPS (Temporary Protected Status) in the U.S. The TPS is a permit to work legally in the US to people coming from countries that are being devastated by natural disasters or wars. In 2018, Donald Trump's government revoked TPS renewal to persons from El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Haití, Sudán y Nepal. After months of political pressure from the affected communities, on november 11, the U.S. administration extended the validity of the program by 18 months, which was set to expire on December 31 and now expires on June 30, 2024. However, "the leaders of this movement are clear that the struggle is not over" as they are seeking for the permanent residency and they are aware of the ease with which an administration withdraws its protection.

Questions:
- Who is responsible for TPS extension?
- How do affected communities for TPS revocation feel about the extension?
-What are their goals now?

Paola Jiménez de León

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Elsy Flores Ayala reaccionó con profunda emoción al saber que la administración del presidente Joe Biden extendió 18 meses más la vigencia del programa Estatus de Protección Temporal (TPS), el cual expiraba el 31 de diciembre y ahora la validez de ese alivio migratorio vence el 30 de junio de 2024.

"Quiero llorar", dijo conmovida la oriunda de La Unión, departamento en el oriente de El Salvador.

"Es un respiro que nos han dado, nosotros pensábamos que íbamos a pasar unas festividades con incertidumbre, pero esta vez vamos a estar más tranquilos. Esta extensión nos va a permitir pasar una Navidad bastante feliz con nuestros seres queridos", abundó Flores, residente en Washington DC.

La zozobra, la preocupación y la ansiedad se había apoderado de las 391,506 personas oriundas de El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Haití, Sudán y Nepal, que vieron como de un plumazo el expresidente estadounidense Donald Trump canceló el programa en el 2018.

Este alivio migratorio se ha extendido gracias a la lucha, la presión política y una demanda presentada en los tribunales por la Alianza Nacional de TPS.

"Esto no ha sido resultado de intermediarios, cabilderos, ni de un gobierno de otro país; esto realmente es fruto de la lucha organizada de la comunidad tepesiana, de los salvadoreños, hondureños y nicaragüenses; por ellos viene esta extensión", indicó Erik Villalobos, portavoz de la Alianza Nacional de TPS.

El Servicio de Ciudadanía e Inmigración de Estados Unidos (USCIS) archivó este jueves, 10 de noviembre, en el Registro Federal el documento de 29 páginas en el que se confirma la extensión de este programa.

Esta decisión le devuelve la esperanza a los beneficiarios del TPS, luego de que la administración Biden y los demandantes clausuraran, el pasado 25 de octubre, los 16 meses de negociaciones sin ningún acuerdo, por lo que el caso regresó a la Corte de Apelaciones del Noveno Circuito, en San Francisco.

"El anuncio de hoy [ayer] afirma el compromiso de la administración Biden de proteger a los inmigrantes que no pueden regresar de manera segura a sus países de origen debido a un desastre ambiental, un conflicto armado u otras condiciones extraordinarias", aseguró Álex Padilla, senador federal por California.

De acuerdo a USCIS, bajo el TPS se encuentran 241,699 salvadoreños que fueron beneficiados en el 2001 luego de dos devastadores terremotos, mientras que 76,737 hondureños se ampararon después de sufrir los destrozos del huracán Mitch que dejó al territorio centroamericano en estado calamitoso.

Este programa, creado en 1990, permite a los beneficiarios obtener un permiso de trabajo, un seguro social y protección contra la deportación, entre otras ventajas.

La congresista Norma Torres celebró que el Departamento de Seguridad Nacional (DHS) otorgue este alivio, pero dijo que el trabajo no termina ahí. "Necesitamos una solución permanente, y eso significa proporcionar un camino a la ciudadanía para los beneficiarios de TPS como parte de la reforma migratoria", escribió en Twitter.

Los activistas y beneficiarios del TPS habían programado iniciar este viernes, 11 de noviembre, una huelga de hambre frente a la Casa Blanca para presionar al gobierno federal. Aunque esa iniciativa ha sido suspendida, indicaron que siempre se concentrarán en el Lafayette Square, sobre la avenida Pennsylvania.

"Vamos a continuar presionando", dijo Evelyn Hernández, coordinadora del Comité TPS en Los Ángeles, quien viajó hasta la capital estadounidense. "Se le ha pedido a la corte que pudieran oírnos más, pero desafortunadamente no quiso escuchar los argumentos de nosotros, no nos quiso dar audiencia".

Los líderes de este movimiento tienen claro que la lucha no ha terminado.

"Hemos visto la vulnerabilidad y la facilidad con la que una administración puede dejarnos sin la protección", reflexionó José Palma, coordinador del Comité TPS en Massachusetts, asegurando que las acciones van a seguir en la búsqueda de una residencia permanente.

Esto no ha sido resultado de intermediarios, cabilderos, ni de un gobierno de otro país; esto realmente es fruto de la lucha organizada de la comunidad tepesiana, de los salvadoreños, hondureños y nicaragüenses; por ellos viene esta extensión

Palma, originario de Usulután (El Salvador), piensa que van a capitalizar lo que han aprendido para llevar su lucha hasta estas instancias. A su juicio, este movimiento está cohesionado porque es alimentado con la energía de los padres, las madres, los jóvenes y los niños que se encuentran amparados en el TPS.

"Esta campaña ha sido liderada por la misma gente que siente el dolor de estar en riesgo de perder su estatus migratorio", concluyó el activista.

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'No es resultado de cabilderos ni de un gobierno de otro país': Activistas celebran extensión del TPS

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Elsy Flores Ayala reaccionó con profunda emoción al saber que la administración del presidente Joe Biden extendió 18 meses más la vigencia del programa Estatus de Protección Temporal (TPS), el cual expiraba el 31 de diciembre y ahora la validez de ese alivio migratorio vence el 30 de junio de 2024.

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Washed away: Climate change is destroying human habitat worldwide. Even in Europe, we are not immune to "climate migration"

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Washed away: Climate change is destroying human habitat worldwide. Even in Europe, we are not immune to "climate migration"

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-explores concept of "European climate refugees"
-argues that term is usually associated with stereotype: “people from Africa, Middle East, South Asia who walk with their last belongings through flooded or devastated landscapes, desperately seeking shelter”
- issues of climate migration, various challenges, multidimensionality

-Eurocentric perspective: is the fear of a “flood of migrants” justified?
Q: What role does climate migration play for Europe?
Research Question: What are key aspects to consider for  European policy-making when responding to climate migration?
Judith Epremian

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How to move a country: Fiji's radical plan to escape rising sea levels 

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How to move a country: Fiji's radical plan to escape rising sea levels 

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-Fiji government has set up taskforce ("SOP") for planning  relocation of communities whose homes will soon be/are already underwater
-Logistical, financial, political, cultural, spiritual challenges
Q: What challenges are involved in climate migration within a state? How can governments address these challenges?
Research Question: How do communities respond to altering environmental conditions which imminently threaten their homes?
Judith Epremian

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Serbia, Hungary and Austria agree to bolster fight against illegal migrations

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Serbia, Hungary and Austria agree to bolster fight against illegal migrations

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The title sums up the article pretty well, however, its important to note, that Serbia's decision to end visa-free entry for the citizens of Burundi and Tunisia is hailed by the parties. The border for the balkans route will be effectively moved from the hungaro-serbian border to the serbian-north macedonian, financed and instrumentally supported by Austria. A classic example of how rich countries 'outsource' the migration problem to poorer countries with fewer resources to tackle it.

Benedek Kolonics

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/serbia-hungary-austria-agree-bolster-fight-against-illegal-migrations-2022-11-16/

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200 million climate-migrants could come in the next 30 years

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200 million climate-migrants could come in the next 30 years

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This article in hungarian basically samples a late-2021 report by the World Bank that argues, that provided our emissions don't decrease some 216 million people could be displaced across the globe. Interestingly, the title states that these people 'could come' imply that they are all going to the location of publishing (or maybe rich countries as a broader location), however the quotation the article explicitly states that the vast majority of climate migrants would not leave their home countries, rather they would be internally displaced.

(the peace is published in a liberal, independent online newspaper)

Benedek Kolonics

https://24.hu/kulfold/2021/09/13/migracio-klimavaltozas-klimamenekultek/#

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EXAMPLE [translation]Researcher: Global warming by 2 degrees turns billions to refugees

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EXAMPLE [translation]Researcher: Global warming by 2 degrees turns billions to refugees

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-people in the global south lose their livelihoods due to climate change and have to move
-rich countries are not doing enough to mitigate climate change
-The international community should prepare for these developments
QUESTION: Why does climate change generate refugees?
POSSIBLE RESEARCH QUESTION: How does climate change impact livelihoods in XYZ for ABC?