# data[].attributes.body
Immigration

supports Trump's call to build a wall

wants stricter enforcement of immigration laws

Gun Control

doesn't support background checks on gun purchases

opposes raising age restrictions for long guns, which is 18

supports 2nd Amendment's right to self defense clause

sponsored a bill that would allow gun owners to use a concealed carry permit anywhere in the country

teachers should be allowed to carry guns inside the classroom

Healthcare

repeal Obama care

lead people in order to repeal Obama care

wants to reform FDA to approve drugs faster

don't think that government should be involved in healthcare; families should decide how to what's best for themselves.

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Politics of the Race: Funding and Endorsements

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Politics of the Race: Funding and Endorsements

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As of October 17:

Ted Cruz has raised $40 million and spent $33 million

Beto O'Rourke has raised $69 million and spent $59 million

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=TXS2

Pacs and Committees that support Ted Cruz:

Americans for Legal Immigration

National Rifle Association

Tea Party Patriots Citizens fund

Texas Alliance for Life

Young Conservatives for Texas

Cruz is backed by Texans Are, a super PAC - will pay for TV, radio and digital ads

Interest Groups that Support O'Rourke:

American Federation of Government Employees

Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence

End Citizens United

Feminist Majority Political Action Committee

MoveOn.org Political Action

Planned Parenthood Action Fund

Texas AFL-CIO

O'Rourke is backed by the super PACs called the Democratic Coalition, and the Fire Ted Cruz PAC

These endorsements are from groups that are ideologically similar to the candidate's ideologies. By providing the candidates with the money they need for the campaign, the interest groups hope that the candidate will support and create legislation in favor of the interest groups. The views and influences of interest groups don't necessary represent the population as a whole, so it isn't as democratic. However, the interest groups help a candidate become aware of underrepresented issues in their community.

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Immigration

supports immediate citizenship of DREAMers

supported legislation that would legalize Dreamer immigrants via military service

supports a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants

wants to close private immigration prisons and detention centers

supports allowing refugees to state their claims of oppression and be granted due process under US laws

Gun Control

introduced legislature promoting stricter background checks in gun purchases

wants universal background checks

wants to pass a ban on assault weapons

Healthcare

supports expanding Medicaid

supports rewriting Obamacare to stabilize insurance markets

supports lowering premiums and prescription drug costs

universal healthcare coverage

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Ted Cruz is more likely to win because the demographics of the electorate and because of polling predictions.
The demographics of the voters in Texas are mainly white, over the age of 65, and not college graduates, and these demographics tend to vote Republican. The previous Texas election in 2016 showed that Republicans are more likely to win. Cruz also has an advantage in that no Democrat has been elected to statewide positions since 1994. Ted Cruz is also an incumbent and has connections through his life experience as a politician in Washington DC.
The polls show that Cruz is more likely to win. The polls have a margin of error of around 3, showing that the polls are more reliable. In every poll we looked at, Cruz had a higher percentage than O'Rourke. In the polls we cited, Cruz had at at least 5% more support from the populations sampled, showing that O'Rourke's chances of winning is unlikely.
Something that makes this election stand out is that O'Rourke has collected a higher amount of donations than Cruz, showing that he does have a chance of winning this election because of that support. However, most of the populations that support O'Rourke are minority populations such as the Hispanic population in Texas, which tend to have a very low voter turnout. For O'Rourke to win this campaign, he'd have to change the electorate by a lot, and he can achieve this slim chance of winning by convincing more of Texas's minority populations and younger people to vote for him.

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“Texas Secretary of State.” Voter Registration, www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/vr/index.shtml.

“Republican National Committee.” GOP, The Republican National Committee, www.gop.com/.

“The Democrats.” The Democrats, The Democratic Party, democrats.org/.

Albertson, Bethany. “Race for the Senate 2018: Key Issues in Texas.” Brookings, Brookings, 2 Nov. 2018, www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/11/01/race-for-the-senate-2018-key-issues-in-texas/.

Cobler, Nicole. “Where Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke Stand in the Debate over Gun Control.” Dallas News, Dallas News, 9 Mar. 2018, www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/03/09/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-stand-debate-gun-control.

“Immigration.” Beto for Senate, betofortexas.com/issue/immigration/.

McDermott, Nathan. “Beto O'Rourke Told PACs to Stay out of His Race. They Aren't Listening.” CNN, Cable News Network, 13 May 2018, 9:19 PM ET, www.cnn.com/2018/05/12/politics/beto-orourke-texas-senate-pac-spending/index.html.

OnTheIssues.org. “Texas Senator Ted Cruz On the Issues.” Ted Cruz on the Issues, On The Issues, www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Ted_Cruz.htm.

O'Rourke, Beto. “Healthcare.” Beto for Senate, Beto for Senate, betofortexas.com/issue/healthcare/.

Svitek, Patrick. “Cruz Allies Ramp up for November TV Battle with O'Rourke.” The Texas Tribune, Texas Tribune, 9 Aug. 2018,  www.texastribune.org/2018/08/09/ted-cruz-allies-ramp-november-tv-battle-beto-orourke/.

“Texas Senate 2018 Race.” OpenSecrets, The Center for Responsive Politics, www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=TXS2.

“The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/78533/beto-orourke.

“Ted Cruz on Health Care.” Ted Cruz on Health Care, On The Issues, www.ontheissues.org/Social/Ted_Cruz_Health_Care.htm.

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Voter Demographics:
Majority of the voters are:

older than 65

white

Median income: $53,000

not college graduates

2016 presidential election

52. 23% vote republican

43.24% voted republican

Ted Cruz has an 80% chance of winning

Beto O'Rourke has a 25% chance of winning.

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Polls:

UT Tyler Polling Center Oct 15 -Oct 28

1,033 people

46% Cruz

39% O'Rourke

+-3.0 Margin of error

Reuters Oct 12 - Oct 18

49% Cruz

44% O'Rourke

Margin of Error +-3.2

1,298 people sampled

Quinnipiac University Oct 22 - Oct 28

51% Cruz

46% O'Rourke

Margin of error: +-3.5

1,078 people sampled

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Be 18 years or older by election day.

be a united state Citizen

be a resident of Texas

not a felon if so completed terms of the jail sentence

mentally capable

submit on application in hand or by mail.

photo id

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70.4% white american

64% Evangelical Protestant

11.8% African American

3.8% Asian American

0.7% Indian american

0.1 Hawaiian

37.6% Hispanics(of any race

non-Hispanic white(45.3)

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Must be:

US citizen

Resident for at least 30 days

18 years old

Registration is closed 27 days before the election but can apply to register through the guidelines of the grace period registration

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Ted Cruz

Republican

Incumbent

Ran against Trump in 2016 Presidential Election

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Beto O'Rourke

Democrat

Previously represented Texas's 16th Congressional District

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Randy Hultgren is more likely to win the election because the demographics of the district are more likely to vote in his favor and because of their political stances.
The demographics of Illinois 14 show that the majority of the voters are white, married and from the middle class. These demographics primarily tend to vote Republican because of its conservative stances that focus on safety, such as having the right to carry guns for safety, protecting people from human trafficking. Also, many small business owners are from the middle class population, making them more likely to vote for Hultgren.
The candidates' political stances might be an important issue that drives people's voting behavior. People who don't qualify for Obamacare feel the pressure of rising healthcare costs and might want to remove it, because they feel that it's not relevant to them, and focus more on something like keeping their families safe from human trafficking. Many others who need cheaper healthcare might side with Underwood to expand it. However, Underwood needs a significant amount of votes to overcome the fact that historically, Hultgren has been voted into office. Hultgren has an advantage over Underwood because his incumbency gives him the recognition that Underwood doesn't have.

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Randy Hultgren

Republican

Incumbent since 2011, seeking fifth term

Career Politician

One of the main focuses in campaign is human trafficking

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democrat

healthcare policy advisor

profession is registered nurse

does not hold political position

worked at the department of health care and human services.

One of the main focuses is healthcare

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Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) headlined a rally in support of Underwood.

Independence USA PAC reported spending $690,000 on a digital and television ad campaign supporting Underwood and opposing Hultgren.

House Speaker Paul Ryan (R) made a campaign appearance alongside Hultgren in Spring Grove.

Randy Hultgren has raised $2 million and spent $1.3 million

Lauren Underwood has raised $3.9 million and spent $2.7 million

Polls:

NY Times/Siena College Oct 3 - Oct 8

501 likely voters

47% Hultgren

43% Underwood

Margin of error: +-4.6

According to the poll, they voted +4 Trump in the 2016 election

NY Times/Siena College Oct 31 - Nov 4

428 likely voters

+-5 Margin of Error

49% Underwood

43% Hultgren

Public Policy Polling April 16 -17 2018

682 people

3.8 margin of error

in hypothetical matchup underwood recieves 41 and hultgren recieves 45

52 are excited to vote and plan to cast their ballots for her

40 support hultgren

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2016

1. Republican  Randy Hultgren(incumbent) got 59.3% vote

2. Democrat Jim Walz got 40.7% vote

2016 Illinois Senate exit poll

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/illinois/senate

majority:

45 and older

white

not a college graduate

income > $50k

married

protestant

suburban area residents

2012

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/IL/house/http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/IL/house/

1. Republican  Randy Hultgren(incumbent) got 58.8% vote

2. Democrat Dennis Anderson got 41.2% vote

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-89.9% urban
-population: 718,232
-median income $78,000
-85.8% White

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Positions = More ideologically Republican
Domestic Issues

opposes: environmental regulations, gun control regulations, obama care

Economy

He supports small businesses; he created legislation that would help small banks be created with less requirements a person would need to start one

International issues

supports immigration for refugees

supports sanctions against Iran, North Korea, and Russia

Social Issues

Has made legislature advocating the crackdown of human trafficking that would force the states to take action on people forced into the industry; currently, there is no legislation on state and local levels to track or stop human trafficking.

pro life

election issues: healthcare; immigration; education; gun control

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3 major issues, talk in detail

Healthcare

>supported the the affordable care act
>diagnosed with heart condition at the age of three.

>wants to help mental healthcare
>supports paid  family leave

Economic

>supports infrastructure investment

international affairs

>opposed travel ban
>against separating families at the border of mexico.

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Politics of the Race Part 2: Interest Groups

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Politics of the Race Part 2: Interest Groups

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Republican/Endorsed Hultgren:

NRA (out of state)

Campaign for Working Families

Illinois Federation for Right to Life

Business-Industry Political Action Committee

Shows that most of his endorsements are from groups of people that share his ideological stances - people that are pro life, support businesses, and the 2nd amendment - and they want to get him into office so that he could pass laws and vote for laws in their favor.

Democratic/Endorsed Underwood:

American Nurses Association

Broader Representation Advocacy Team (BRAT-PAC)

Congressional Black Caucus PAC

End Citizens United

Feminist Majority Political Action Committee

Illinois AFL-CIO

National Organization for Women

Planned Parenthood Action Fund (out of state)

#VOTEPROCHOICE

Women Under Forty Political Action Committee

She's endorsed by more liberal groups that align with her ideology. Many support her because they want her to represent their views while in office: pro choice, expand healthcare, against separating illegal families at the border

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kmnliJja-8

https://twitter.com/lunderwood630/status/1038484251631595520?lang=en

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“Republican National Committee.” GOP, The Republican National Committee, www.gop.com/.

“The Democrats.” The Democrats, The Democratic Party, democrats.org/.

OnTheIssues.org. “Randy Hultgren on the Issues.” Randy Hultgren on the Issues, On The Issues, www.ontheissues.org/IL/Randy_Hultgren.htm.

Fuller, James. “Hultgren Renews Push for Global Human Sex Trafficking Crackdown.” Daily Herald, Paddock Publications, Inc., 19 Jan. 2017, www.dailyherald.com/article/20170119/news/170118697/.

Hultgren, Randy. “Issues.” Congressman Randy Hultgren, hultgren.house.gov/issues.

Board, Sun-Times Editorial. “14th Congressional District Democratic Nominee: Lauren Underwood.” Chicago Sun-Times, Chicago Sun-Times, 13 Oct. 2018, 1:33, chicago.suntimes.com/politics/14th-congressional-district-democratic-candidate-lauren-underwood-2/.

Gaitan, Daniel. “14th Congressional District Candidate Underwood Galvanizes Supporters before Election Day.” Daily, Local and Breaking News for McHenry County, Illinois - Northwest Herald, Northwest Herald, www.nwherald.com/2018/11/05/14th-congressional-district-candidate-underwood-galvanizes-supporters-before-election-day/a6faaw5/.

“Lauren Underwood for Congress.” Lauren Underwood for Congress, Lauren Underwood for Congress, www.underwoodforcongress.com/.

FRANKLIN, RHONISHA. “Election 2018 Candidate: Lauren Underwood, 14th Congressional District Representative.” The Herald News, Shaw Media, 4 Oct. 2018, www.theherald-news.com/2018/10/04/election-2018-candidate-lauren-underwood-14th-congressional-district-representative/akelj4t/.

“2012 General Election Results Map for IL.” CNN, Cable News Network, www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/IL/house/.

“Illinois' 14th Congressional District Election, 2018.” Ballotpedia, Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_14th_Congressional_District_election,_2018.

“Illinois District 14 2018 Race.” OpenSecrets, The Center for Responsive Politics, 26 Oct. 2018, www.opensecrets.org/races/geography?cycle=2018&id=IL14.

“Midterm Election Poll: Illinois's 14th District, Hultgren vs. Underwood.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 3 Oct. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-il14-1.html.

“Midterm Election Poll: Illinois's 14th District, Hultgren vs. Underwood.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 31 Oct. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-il14-3.html.

State, Illinois Secretary of. “Office of the Illinois Secretary of State.” The Official Website for the Illinois Secretary of State, Office of the Secretary of State, www.cyberdriveillinois.com/.

“The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/177001/lauren-underwood.

“The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/18199/randy-hultgren.

“Voter Registration.” Voter Registration, Illinois State Board of Elections, www.elections.il.gov/VotingInformation/Register.aspx.

Williams, Anniken. “Congressional Republicans Vulnerable in Upcoming Elections.” Public Policy Polling, Public Policy Polling, 26 Apr. 2018, docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/2c7561_7bca568f1e114f018440e46d1bc274d2.pdf.

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-Mostly focuses on the problem of human trafficking, and Hultgren working to stop it