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1. Critically analyise what the assumptions are behind your probable and desirable futures

2. Share in the plenary

3. Select the ones that you want to review for creating the alternative future narrative

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Desirable futures

1. Close your eyes and imagine a desirable future on your topic considering both positive and negative consequences

2. Use images, drawing, icons to generate a collage of desirable futures

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1. Identify assumptions to challenge about the future of your agri-food topic

2. Review them critically and identify an alternative view of that assumption

3. Write the beginning of a sci-fiction story integrating the new alternative assumption

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Imagine that you are in 2076 enjoying your retirement and you listen to the news. What are the news that could you expect listening to, but not really wanting? Write them.

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Name: RAJAPANDIYAN BASKAR

Topic: ENVIRONMENTAL AND HEALTH IMPACT ON USE OF AGRO-PRODUCTS IN-PADDY RICE FIELDS: TAMILNADU.

Probable future:

LIKE BIO SYNTHESISED FARM INPUTS OR USING CERTAIN VAREITY OF PLANT BASED FEEDING SYSTEMS ON THE FIELDS FOR PROVIDING THE ESSENTIAL WATER AND NUTRIENTS REQUIRED FOR THE GROWTH OF THE PLANT AND THE SUPPORTING PLANT IS WILDY GROWN ON ANY ENVIRONMENT

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List the main assumptions:

Is in effective usage of plant waste used again by refining the plant based carcass and a developed reusable model to sustain water and vitamins and micro-organism to facilitate root growth of the plant and eliminating the unwanted weeds also by specifically engineer them

and food waste can be synthesized in a form of manure for feeding back the system for high yield which is interms of profit

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Name: Sarmila Lama

Topic: Assessment of novel food packaging practices in fresh produce in UK and its role toward minimizing food waste and value addition

Probable future: Pile of plastic packaging waste

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Name: Chima Nweze Abatsu

Topic: Assessing Micro-irrigation Systems in Rice Production as Essential Tools for Sustainable Food in South-Eastern Nigeria.

Probable future:

(a) That rice, as a staple food, is no longer available for consumers in Nigeria due to drought and water scarcity.

(b) That rice can only be imported from overseas to Nigeria.

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Name: Atif Ali Mahi

Topic: Sustainable rice production practices in Pakistan and their role in conserving water and improving crop yield

Probable future: Farmers struggle with severe water shortages, leading to reduced rice cultivation and increased dependence on imports

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Name: Angelina Amoah

Topic: Barriers to the Adoption of Biodegradable Packaging Derieved from Fruits and Vegetables Waste in the Food Industry: A case study of Lincolnshire.

Probable future: Plastic Packaging is still dominating the food industry, worsening environmental pollution.

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Name:Sahayanathan

Topic: My project on food safety management, focusing on the challenges and limitations faced by food safety agencies, as well as how local food delivery businesses and convenience stores in Lincoln comply with food safety rules and regulations.

Probable future: In Lincoln, future food safety concerns.

1.Food safety agencies are struggling with too many small delivery businesses and not enough inspectors.

2.Some convenience stores have been fined for mislabelling foods and allergens

3.AI inspection systems are failing, as businesses find ways to bypass them.

4.Delivery drones are causing new hygiene risks like cross-contamination.

5.Climate change is making food storage and safety harder.

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Name: Pavani Malleshwarapu

Topic: Climate Change as a Driver of Transformation in the Indian Rice Supply Chain

Probable future: India faces severe rice shortage due to extreme droughts affecting major rice-producing states like Punjab and West Bengal.

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Name: Hina Sarwar

Topic: Effect of soil salanity with respect to check the soil moisture and temperature by application of Gypsum in spinach crop.

Probable future: This toipc has strong future potential in sustainable agricilture. With advancements in techmology, improved soil amendmwnts and climate resilient practices, gypsum based salinity management in spinach cultivation can become more efficient, economicak and environmentally sustainable.

1. Advanced forms of gypsum nano gypsum

2. Integrated soil management approaches

3. Precision agriculture and smart monitoring

4. Ckimate change adaptation strategies

5. Long term sustainabikity studies gypsum

6. Alternative and complementary techniques

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Name: Shaswato Dey

Topic: AWD method in Rice production in South asian countries

Probable future: AWD method mainly used for saving water in rice production. But it may be a great burden for farmers. Because they may face low rice production and high cost for maintain the technology used for AWD

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Name: Ikenna Okpuru

Topic: Predictive Yield modelling of maize and tomatoes in Northern Nigeria using weather, soil and remote sensing data

Probable future: Increased global warning leading to drought and stress on crops, poor crop yield, increased food and crop spoilage due to poor prediction modelling and Nigeria's inability to integrate precision agriculture in the farming system. There could be a failed agricultural system in Nigeria which affects agricultural practices in Nigeria leading to lack of integration of technology in Agriculture, crop loss, bad agricultural practice and poor farmer incoming thereby increasing hunger and poverty in the country.

The model may be expensive for Nigerian farmers

This

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Name: Chima Andrew Chinedum

Topic: Biogas production/innovation from animal manure/droppings[waste] in Nigeria

Probable future: Biofuel Energy

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Name: KRISHNABEN KHUNTI

Topic: Oats used for producing plant based oat milk.

Probable future: New UK sustainability laws force oat‑milk factories to cut water and energy use.

Packaging waste from oat‑milk cartons sparks public backlash.

Automation in oat‑milk factories reduces rural employment opportunities.

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Name: Emmanuella Guha

Topic: Strategies for minimizing plantain waste in the Ghanaian supply chain

Probable future: High levels of post-harvest harvest losses due to poor infrastructure, inadequate storage etc. Environmental impact on the rise due to increased waste and inefficient resource use.

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Name: Antwi Bosiako Oduro

Topic: Rick Management of Maize in Ghana

Probable future: In Ghana, maize faces increasing climate, market, and food-safety risk in the future, but can be a clear governmental policy, and financial tools and advice that can strengthen risk management in the next decades.

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Name: Nagendra Somashekhar

Topic: Food Fraud and Adulteration in Supply

Chains. (Milk Dilution).

Probable future:

1. Global supply chains becoming more vulnerable to food fraud.

2. Loss of consumer trust in dairy products

3. Rise in health issues due to long-term consumption of adulterated milk

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Name:

Topic:

Probable future:

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Topic:

Probable future:

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Name:

Topic:

Probable future:

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Name: Monik Poudel

Topic: Enteric Methane in the Dairy field in the UK

Probable future: Intensive cow farming, precise feed calculations, additives and enhancers in milk and milk products, new breeds of cows, excessive CH4 production, co-corporate dominant future

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Name:

Topic:

Probable future:

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Name: Jasprit Singh

Topic: Water Stress in the Beef Supply Chain Supplying UK Retailers

Probable future: In 2076, the UK beef supply chain is likely to be heavily shaped by water stress. Hotter temperatures, irregular rainfall, stricter policy, and changing consumer demand push farms to use precision technology, recycled water, and more efficient feed systems. Beef becomes more expensive and more tightly regulated, so retailers source from fewer farms that meet strong sustainability standards. Consumers buy less beef, but they expect high traceability and lower environmental impact. As a result, the beef supply chain becomes smaller, smarter, and more resilient.

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Topic:

Probable future:

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Topic:

Probable future:

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Topic:

Probable future:

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Topic:

Probable future:

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Name: Adesokan Promise

Topic: Optimizing packaging design and logistics to minimize tomato waste in the Nigerian supply chain.

Probable future:

Climate change and resource degradation cause severe food shortages and very high prices.

Despite decades of effort, huge amounts of food are still wasted, especially perishable crops.

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Name:

Topic:

Probable future:

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Name: Denning CHIAFIE FONANG

Topic: Post Harvest of Strawberries in the United Kingdom

Probable future: Post Harvest losses due to diseases, pests, poor handling, packaging, storage. Climate change impacts which could probably reduce strawberry yields

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Name: Abdullah Ajao

Topic: Food waste reduction through regenerative and circular Agriculture

Probable future: When Regenerative Agriculture and Circular Agriculture fail to scale beyond small pilot projects. In this scenario, industrial, linear food systems continue to dominate, prioritizing high yields over sustainability. Soil degradation worsens, reducing crop quality and shelf life, which leads to even higher levels of post-harvest losses—especially in perishable products like fruits and vegetables

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Sustainable packaging techniques that do not end up in landfill, have a improved functionality like anti microbial or live packaging and clean label 

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Packaged rice produced  in South-Eastern Nigeria ready for export

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Name: Atif Ali Mahi

Topic: Challenges in rice production in Pakistan and the impact of water scarcity and climate change on yield and food security

Desirable futures:

1. Imagine a future where Pakistan becomes a global leader in sustainable rice production. Farmers use smart irrigation systems, saving water while producing high yields. New heat- and drought-resistant rice varieties ensure stable food supply despite climate change.

2. Advanced technologies like AI, drones, and modern machinery help farmers monitor crops, reduce waste, and improve rice quality for export. However, there may still be challenges such as high costs of technology for small farmers and the need for proper training and government support.

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Improved yield prediction, advancement in agricultural technology in Africa and Nigeria in particular, at least 85-93% model prediction of crop yield, climate smart agriculture, integration of agroecology in the Nigeria farm sector.

There is more responsible consumption as a result of improved yield of crops. Crop and food wastage is reduced globally from 70% to 30% thereby achieving SDGs 2, 13 and 12

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1. Use of bio-gas for machines [bio-gas engines] bio-fuel for cars and engines     2. cooking fuels from bio-gas 

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The UK becomes a global leader in sustainable plant‑based milk innovation.

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Adopting alternative/plant based products

1. Feeds to reduce methane production

2. Trees (microbes on barks) integrating more tress on the earth

3. More alternative protein and calcium rich foods

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Name: Jasprit Singh

Topic: Water Stress in the Beef Supply Chain Supplying UK Retailers.

Desirable future: In 2076, the UK beef supply chain has successfully adapted to water stress through smart farming, recycled water systems, drought-resistant feed crops, and better supply chain coordination. Farmers use precision technology to reduce waste and protect animal health, while processors and retailers support suppliers that meet strong sustainability and welfare standards. Beef is produced with lower environmental impact, better traceability, and greater consumer trust. A desirable future is not about unlimited production, but about a balanced system where farms remain profitable, water is used responsibly, and consumers have access to safe, ethical, and high-quality beef. However, this future also requires careful management so that small farmers are not excluded by the high cost of new technology and strict standards.

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Integrating Regenerative Agriculture and Circular Agriculture globally, creating resilient farms with healthy soils that produce longer-lasting, high-quality crops and significantly reduce post-harvest losses. In this system, no food is wasted, as surplus is redirected to markets or processing while unavoidable waste is converted into useful resources like compost or energy.

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Name: Anusha Suresh

Topic:

Desirable futures

Sustainable Extraction of Low-Methoxyl Pectin from Fruit and Vegetable Processing Waste for Developing Bioactive Edible Coatings to Extend the Shelf-life of UK-Grown Strawberry

Probable future: High demand for food waste has increased costs for farmers and reduced its use as animal feed

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List the main assumptions:

1. Development of affordable climate friendly alternative advanced technologies

2. Widespread commercialization and use

3. Supported by the legislative bodies

4. Reduced food waste

5. Reduced plastic packaging

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List the main assumptions:

(a) Probable futures/ possible challenges:

i) persistent water scarcity and drought.

ii) soil exploitation and degradation.

iii) lack of micro-irrigation equipment.

(b) Desirable futures:

i) micro-irrigation systems will solve the problem of seasonal rice production due to lack of water (rice will be produced all year round).

ii) rice yield will be increased such that food will be in abundance for the entire country and be enough for export (food security will be achieved).

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1.Water scarcity will reduce rice production.

2. Climate change will increase crop damage.

3. Extreme weather will affect yields frequently.

4. Smart irrigation will improve water use.

5. New rice varieties will resist heat and drought.

6. Technology (AI, drones) will increase productivity.

7. Farmers will need training and support.

8. Government support will be essential.

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Probable Future Assumptions

Plastic will continue dominating the food industry.
Assumptions:

Current policies on plastic are insufficient to reduce use.

Consumers prioritize convenience and low cost over sustainability.

Technological innovation in biodegradable packaging is slow or expensive.

Environmental pollution from plastics will worsen.
Assumptions:

Recycling infrastructure remains inadequate.

Desirable Future Assumptions

Biodegradable packaging replaces plastic in mainstream markets.
Assumptions:

Governments and companies will support sustainable solutions.

Consumers will accept slightly higher prices for eco-friendly options.

Technological innovation allows cost-effective, scalable biodegradable packaging.

Some of the assumptions behind my probable future are uncertain. For example, consumers may not always accept higher prices, and government support could be limited. For my alternative future, i focus on key assumptions that can change the outcome: faster technology adoption, stronger policy support, better recycling systems, and increased consumer preference for eco-friendly packaging. By shifting these, we can move toward a desirable future where biodegradable packaging is mainstream and pollution is reduced."

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1.

Probable futures

1.Technology can fail or be exploited

2.Regulations lag behind new food trends

3.Agencies lack staff/resources

4.Businesses may prioritise profit over safety

Desirable futures

1.Technology improves transparency

2.Strong cooperation between agencies & businesses

3.Clear rules for new foods

4.Consumers are informed List the main assumptions

2. Both futures assume Technology and Regulation shape food safety in Lincoln

3.

Focus on these for next narrative:

1. Technology will solve food safety problems

2. Small businesses are less compliant than large ones

3. Regulation cannot keep up with change

4. Consumers will either fully trust or fully distrust the system

5. Food safety must be centralised or decentralised (not both)

Plenary Summary

The futures are based on assumptions about technology, regulation ,and human behaviour. The key uncertainty is whether technology and governance systems will fail or adopt. By challenging these assumptions we can design a more balanced and realistic alternative future.

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List the main assumptions:

1. Monsoon patterns will become more unpredictable, directly affecting rice production, as rice is highly dependent on water availability.

2.Major rice-producing states such as Punjab and West Bengal will face water scarcity due to overuse of groundwater and changing climate conditions.

3.Supply chains (transport, storage, distribution) are vulnerable to climate disruptions such as floods and infrastructure damage.

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🍅 Probable Future – Assumptions

• Cold storage and transport will improve slowly, so spoilage during handling and transit will still be common.

• Technology adoption will grow, but unevenly, leaving many small farmers without access to digital tools.

• Market prices will remain unstable, making it difficult for farmers to plan and sell at the right time.

🌱 Desirable Future – Assumptions

• Cold chain systems will be widely available, ensuring tomatoes stay fresh from farm to market.

• Digital tools, sensors, and AI systems will be affordable and widely used to reduce losses at every stage.

• Strong policies and farmer cooperatives will create fairer markets and more stable incomes for producers.

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The analysis assumes that

1) climate change will intensify water scarcity, irregular rainfall, and higher temperatures making AWD implementation more complex and risk-prone.

2) farmers will continue to face limited access to training, technology, and monitoring tools, leading to improper irrigation management.

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List the main assumptions: 1 sparse weather stations in Nigeria especially in Northern Nigeria

2. unreliable weather data can affect accurate prediction

3. inconsistent soil variability

4. model may fail outside training environment

5. climate change may affect prediction accuracy as the weather prediction cannot be 100% accurate

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1. Manure is often assumed to produce less gas than high-energy crops like maize

2. Biological processes are sensitive to temperature changes and feedstock variability

3. Many models assume a certain percentage of "methane slips" [leaks] from infrastructure.

4.A key assumption is that bio-gas solves a waste problem by turning waste [like manure or food scraps] into a resource, rather than encouraging the production of more waste.

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List the main assumptions: 1] Probable future: New UK sustainability laws force oat‑milk factories to cut water and energy use, creating pressure on producers.

2] Desirable future: The UK becomes a global leader in sustainable plant‑based milk innovation, setting new standards for the world.

3] Alternative future: Strict sustainability laws spark breakthrough technologies that make UK oat‑milk production cleaner, cheaper, and more efficient than expected.

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List the main assumptions:

Probable Future

The probable future assumes that current challenges such as poor infrastructure, weak market coordination, and limited adoption of post-harvest technologies will persist. It also assumes minimal policy intervention and little change in farmer practices, leading to continued high levels of plantain waste.

Desirable Future

The desirable future assumes increased investment in infrastructure, improved technologies, and strong policy support to reduce waste across the supply chain. It also assumes effective collaboration among stakeholders and widespread adoption of better practices, leading to improved livelihoods, food security, and sustainability.

Plenary

The probable future reflects system stagnation, while the desirable future depends on strong investment, coordination, and policy support, highlighting the need for realistic and achievable interventions.

The alternative future focuses on realistic assumptions such as gradual infrastructure improvement, adoption of low-cost technologies, better market linkages, and targeted policy support, while avoiding overreliance on high-cost solutions and perfect system coordination.

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List the main assumptions:

1. Climate smart production is knowing and predictions in weather change for planting and harvesting to avoid risk in spoilage

2. Information from third parties to improve on the quality not just the quantity of your produce in the near future.

3. Chemical and post-harvest control is an important factor in risk management in which the type and use of the right chemical to use on plants to yield a better crop at year end.

4. Silos/Storage facilities is also a clear factor to be assumed in other for a better long self life for the produce

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List the main assumptions:

1. Critically analyse assumptions

• It is assumed that high demand and profit pressure will increase milk adulteration.

2. Share in the plenary

• These assumptions show that both risks and improvements exist in the future.

3. Select assumptions for alternative future

• Focus on strong regulations and strict quality control.

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List the main assumptions:

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List the main assumptions:

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List the main assumptions:

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1. Growing population

2. More technologies

3. Lab works and research

4. Breeding

5. Feed formulations

6. Precise agriculture

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List the main assumptions:

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List the main assumptions:

• Climate change will increase water stress

• Water scarcity will remain a key driver

• Technology will improve water efficiency

• Policy and governance will become stricter

• Retailers will demand stronger sustainability standards

• Consumers will value traceability and ethics

• Investment will support adaptation

• Small farmers may face cost barriers

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List the main assumptions:

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List the main assumptions:

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List the main assumptions:

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List the main assumptions:

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List the main assumptions:

Probable Futures Assumptions

Governments and corporations prioritise short-term profit over climate action and infrastructure investment.

Technologies and policies fail to reach small farmers, widening inequality and food waste gaps.

Desirable Future Assumptions

Affordable packaging/logistics tech is accessible to Nigerian smallholders via policy and finance support.

Farmers/traders adopt changes willingly when income benefits and training are clear.

For Plenary Sharing

Probable: Weak will and uneven tech adoption worsen waste; desirable: Strong policy enables efficient chains.

Focus on flipping assumptions like only big firms innovate for alternatives.

To Review for Alternatives

Challenge slow government → Local markets lead packaging innovation.

Flip tech widens gaps → Cooperatives own shared crates/cold storage.

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List the main assumptions:

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As assumptions we have as key points:

1)Advanced Storage Techniques like high-pressure processing, modified atmosphere packaging, and controlled atmosphere storage which will extend shelf life and maintain quality.

2) Sustainable Packaging using biodegradable films, edible coatings, and starch-based coatings will reduce waste and environmental impact.

3) Precision Farming and Logistics where data-driven approaches will optimize harvesting, handling, transportation, minimizing losses.

4) Non-Chemical Treatments methods like UV-C radiation, gamma irradiation, and hydrogen sulfide fumigation will replace chemical preservatives.sumptions:

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1A) Probable Future

Regenerative Agriculture fail to scale due to economic, institutional, and behavioural barriers.

industrial agriculture remains dominant because it is more profitable in the short term and supported by existing policies

Farmer lack access to finance, knowledge, and infrastructure

1B) Desirable Future

Widespread adoption and successful integration of regenerative and circular systems globally

Government and institutions will provide strong policy support, funding, and incentives

Behavioural change among consumers and stakeholders toward waste reduction and sustainability.

2. Plenary

The probable future assumes barriers dominate, while the desirable future assumes enablers dominate

Policy, infrastructure, and finance are the biggest uncertainties

There is a strong tension between short-term profit vs long-term sustainability

3. Alternative Review

Access to technology → Will innovations truly reach smallholder farmers?

Infrastructure development → Especially cold chain and processing systems

Farmer behaviour and knowledge → Are training and education sufficient?

Policy effectiveness → Can governments enforce and sustain supportive policies?

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List the main assumptions:

Continuous availability of fruit and vegetable waste

Pectin extraction is environmentally sustainable

Consumers accept edible coatings on Strawberry

High-value use (pectin) is better than animal feed or biogas

Efficient waste collection systems exist in the United Kingdom.

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1. Alternative futures for my agri-food topic

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1. Alternative futures for my agri-food topic

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In the year 2076......

High yield compared to the use of Agro-products

Complete use of waste from post harvesting

Minimal use of input compared to earlier years

More sustainable closed loop supporting system

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2. Alternative futures for my agri-food topic

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2. Alternative futures for my agri-food topic

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In the year 2076......

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3. Alternative futures for my agri-food topic

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3. Alternative futures for my agri-food topic

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In the year 2076.......

1.(a) Water scarcity will no longer be a problem prompting seasonal rice production.

(b) Rice importation to Nigeria will be replaced with rice exportation.

(c) Micro-irrigation systems and other emerging technological advancements will boost rice food production.

2(a)

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4. Alternative futures for my agri-food topic

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4. Alternative futures for my agri-food topic

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In the year 2076......

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5. Alternative futures for my agri-food topic

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5. Alternative futures for my agri-food topic

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In the year 2076 my Probable future assumption on Plastic packaging continues dominating the food industry, worsening environmental pollution would result in the ff;

Underlying assumptions to challenge:

1. Tech adoption is slow – Biodegradable packaging from fruit and vegetable waste cannot scale fast enough.

2. Consumers prioritize cost and convenience – People will keep choosing plastic because it’s cheap and familiar.

3. Policy and industry support is weak – Governments and food companies are reluctant to invest in alternatives.

4. Waste management is inadequate – Recycling and composting systems are inefficient.

Alternative view

1. Rapid innovation makes biodegradable packaging cost-effective, durable, and widely available.

2. Consumers in 2076 are environmentally conscious and demand sustainable packaging.

3. Governments provide strong incentives and companies compete to use fruit/vegetable based packaging.

4. Circular systems are fully functional: all packaging is composted or reused efficiently.

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6. Alternative futures for my agri-food topic

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6. Alternative futures for my agri-food topic

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1. Assumptions to Challenge

Technology will fix food safety

Small businesses are less compliant

Regulation cannot keep up

2. Alternative Views

Technology supports, but humans and local knowledge ensure safety

Small local businesses can be more trustworthy than large chains

Regulation can be flexible and co-created locally in places like Lincoln

3.

In 2076, Lincoln no longer relied on distant agencies to guarantee food safety.

Every morning, customer(Name-A) walked through the local market, scanning food with them(A) handheld device not to check a government database, but to see ratings from them(A) own community. Farmers, delivery drivers, and shop owners all contributed to a shared, living system of trust.

There were no invisible AI inspectors watching from above. Instead, people worked alongside simple technology, combining human judgement with real-time data.

When a new food delivery business opened, it wasn’t algorithms that approved it but the neighbourhood itself.

Yet, as customer (A)paused at a stall flagged with mixed reviews, they(A) realised something:

this system depended on people doing the right thing..

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7. Alternative futures for my agri-food topic

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7. Alternative futures for my agri-food topic

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In the year 2076......

1. Assumptions to Challenge

-Monsoon will become too unpredictable for rice farming

-Water scarcity will severely reduce production

-Supply chains will fail due to climate disruptions

2. Alternative View (New Perspective)

-Better forecasting makes monsoons manageable

-Efficient water use and new rice varieties reduce risk

-Technology and infrastructure make supply chains stronger

3. Beginning of Sci-Fi Story

In the year 2076, farmers in India no longer feared the monsoon. With AI predicting rainfall and smart irrigation systems conserving every drop, rice fields thrived even in uncertain climates. What was once a crisis had become a model of innovation, transforming the entire food system.