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ECMWF-CEMS-C3S-HEPEX-GFP Joint Virtual Workshop 2021 

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ECMWF-CEMS-C3S-HEPEX-GFP Joint Virtual Workshop 2021 

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“Connecting global to local hydrological modelling and forecasting: scientific advances and challenges”. The 2021 HEPEX workshop was held virtually, co-organized by ECMWF, CEMS, C3S and GFP. The workshop took place from 29 June to 1 July 2021, and this website contains all of the talks, presentation slides and posters from the event.

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Joint Virtual Workshop on "Connecting global to local hydrological modelling and forecasting: scientific advances and challenges"

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ECMWF- CEMS - C3S - HEPEX - GFP From 29 June to 1 July 2021, ECMWF will host a 3-day virtual workshop on Global hydrological modelling and forecasting. Day 1 aims at presenting and discussing recent advances in global and large-scale hydrological modelling used in water cycle predictions up to medium-range, and in monitoring applications such as regional and global reanalyses.

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The blog of the 'hydrological ensemble prediction experiment' (HEPEX) contains a wide range of posts related to the science and use of ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasts

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Fact Sheet on ensemble forecasting (ECMWF) 

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Fact Sheet on ensemble forecasting (ECMWF) 

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A quick, simple overview of what ensemble forecasting is, why it's important, and what the advantages are.

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What is ensemble weather forecasting?

An ensemble weather forecast is a set of forecasts that present the range of future weather possibilities. Multiple simulations are run, each with a slight variation of its initial conditions and with slightly perturbed weather models. These variations represent the inevitable uncertainty in the initial conditions and approximations in the models. They produce a range of possible weather conditions.

Why is it important to measure the level of uncertainty in a forecast?

The uncertainty associated with every forecast means that different scenarios are possible, and the forecast should reflect that. Single 'deterministic' forecasts can be misleading as they fail to provide this information. Take agriculture as an example: a farmer needs to know the range of possible conditions the crops may experience so that they can be protected. Ensemble forecasts show how big that range is at different forecast times.

What are the advantages of ensemble prediction?

By generating a range of possible outcomes, the method can show how likely different scenarios are in the days ahead, and how long into the future the forecasts are useful. The smaller the range of predicted outcomes, the 'sharper' the forecast is said to be. Good ensemble forecasts are not just as sharp as possible but also reliable. If a reliable forecast says that there is a 70% chance of top temperatures rising above a certain threshold, then in 70% of cases when such a forecast is made temperatures will indeed rise above that threshold.

Is uncertainty in a forecast due to a lack of knowledge?

Yes, to some extent our lack of knowledge does significantly increase uncertainty in the forecast. This is why there is much work going into improving our knowledge of initial conditions and of atmospheric processes that computer models need to mirror. In addition, the atmosphere is a chaotic system. This means that it is sensitively dependent on initial conditions. In a chaotic system, a slight change in the input conditions can lead to a significant change in the output forecast. In a non-chaotic system, small differences in initial conditions only give small differences in output. Hence, it is important in weather forecasting to investigate how sensitive the atmosphere is at any stage to initial conditions. Ensemble forecasting does this by looking at a spread of possible outcomes.

When did ECMWF introduce ensemble forecasting?

ECMWF started to provide operational weather predictions in 1979. These first forecasts were offered without an uncertainty estimate, and so a research effort to investigate such an approach was initiated in the 1980s. It took more than a decade to develop a workable ensemble prediction technique, and ECMWF produced the first ensemble forecasts in 1992.

How does ECMWF produce an ensemble forecast?

It produces 51 forecasts. One of these is known as the control forecast and is produced with the best available data and unperturbed models. The other 50 are each produced with slight perturbations of initial conditions and of the models. Taken together the forecasts become the ensemble, which shows the range of possible outcomes and the likelihood of their occurrence.

What is the future of ensemble forecasting?

ECMWF published its ten-year Strategy in 2016. Titled The Strength of a Common Goal, it stressed the primary position of ensemble forecasting within the organisation.

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Fact sheet: Ensemble weather forecasting

This video marks 25 years of ensemble forecasting at ECMWF. Lead Scientist Roberto Buizza, Director-General Florence Rabier and NOAA meteorologist Tom Hamill explain the rationale behind ensemble forecasting and set out what the future holds.

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Fact sheet: Ensemble weather forecasting

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An ensemble weather forecast is a set of forecasts that present the range of future weather possibilities. By generating a range of possible outcomes, the method can show how likely different scenarios are in the days ahead, and how long into the future the forecasts are useful.

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A collection of training and short course material in the area of Ensemble streamflow forecasting, including "a course on probability" by Anders Persson

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Ensemble Flood Forecasting: current status and future opportunities

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Ensemble Flood Forecasting: current status and future opportunities

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This paper is an overview of current research activities, knowledge gaps and future research opportunities related in ensemble flood forecasting, which has gained significant momentum over the past decade - an update to "ensemble flood forecasting: a review".

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340276679_Ensemble_flood_forecasting_Current_status_and_future_opportunities

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Ensemble flood forecasting has gained significant momentum over the past decade due to the growth of ensemble numerical weather and climate prediction, expansion in high performance computing, growing interest in shifting from deterministic to risk-based decision-making that accounts for forecast uncertainty, and the efforts of communities such as the international Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), which focuses on advancing relevant ensemble forecasting capabilities and fostering its adoption. With this shift, comes the need to understand the current state of ensemble flood forecasting, in order to provide insights into current capabilities and areas for improvement, thus identifying future research opportunities to allow for better allocation of research resources. In this article, we provide an overview of current research activities in ensemble flood forecasting and discuss knowledge gaps and future research opportunities, based on a review of 70 papers focusing on various aspects of ensemble flood forecasting around the globe. Future research directions include opportunities to improve technical aspects of ensemble flood forecasting, such as data assimilation techniques and methods to account for more sources of uncertainty, and developing ensemble forecasts for more variables, for example, flood inundation, by applying techniques such as machine learning. Further to this, we conclude that there is a need to not only improve technical aspects of flood forecasting, but also to bridge the gap between scientific research and hydrometeorological model development, and real-world flood management using probabilistic ensemble forecasts, especially through effective communication.

This article is categorized under:

Engineering Water > Methods

Science of Water > Water Extremes

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Ensemble flood forecasting: Current status and future opportunities

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Ensemble flood forecasting has gained significant momentum over the past decade due to the growth of ensemble numerical weather and climate prediction, expansion in high performance computing, growing interest in shifting from deterministic to risk-based decision-making that accounts for forecast uncertainty, and the efforts of communities such as the international Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), which focuses on advancing relevant ensemble forecasting capabilities and fostering its adoption.

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If you have access to this book through a library then it's a fantastic resource. For those without access to the book, this web overview provides a list of the chapters and all of the references included, and can be useful for finding literature on many topics related to hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting.

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This paper reviewed the scientific drivers of the shift towards such ‘ensemble flood forecasting’ and discusses several of the questions surrounding best practice in using EPS in flood forecasting systems, alongside the added value of ensemble flood forecasts.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222537193_Ensemble_Flood_Forecasting_A_Review

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Promoting the use of probabilistic weather forecasts through a dialogue between scientists, developers and end users

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Promoting the use of probabilistic weather forecasts through a dialogue between scientists, developers and end users

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To bridge the gap between the forecasts available and their use in day-to-day decision making, the authors encourage scientists, developers, and end-users to engage in interdisciplinary collaborations. They discuss experiences with three different approaches of introducing probabilistic forecasts to different user groups.

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Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions?

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Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions?

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A decision-making activity exploring the potential for the use of seasonal hydrological forecasts at local scales for decision-making in different water-related sectors.

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Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions? A decision-making activity

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Abstract. While this paper has a hydrological focus (a glossary of terms highlighted by asterisks in the text is included in Appendix A), the concept of our decision-making activity will be of wider interest and applicable to those involved in all aspects of geoscience communication.

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Webinar on 'Viewing ensembles through the Eyes of End Users'

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Webinar on 'Viewing ensembles through the Eyes of End Users'

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A HEPEX webinar by Dr Dasarath (Jaya) Jayasuriya from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, on the use of ensembles and communicating risk.

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Viewing Ensembles through the Eyes of the End-user

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WMO Guidelines on Communicating Forecast Uncertainty

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WMO Guidelines on Communicating Forecast Uncertainty

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These World Meteorological Organisation guidelines address the issue of communicating forecast uncertainty, which is vital to forecast users. Although they include a discussion on the sources of uncertainty, and the related science, the emphasis is on how National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) can incorporate uncertainty information in their hydrometeorological forecast services. Also available in French and Spanish.

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Guidelines on Communicating Forecast Uncertainty | E-Library

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“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England

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“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England

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The Environment Agency (EA), responsible for managing risks of flooding in England, is transitioning towards the use of probabilistic fluvial forecasts for flood early warning. Interviews were carried out with EA decision-makers to understand how they perceive this transition might impact on their decision-making.

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Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action

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Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action

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A method to select and use appropriate forecasts for specific humanitarian disaster prevention actions.

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Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond)

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Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond)

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Looks at how scientific developments and organisational change have led to improvements in the forecasting and flood preparedness seen in this UK 2013/14 winter's flooding.

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The HEPEX website includes links and resources for a number of serious games related to ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting and decision-making.

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Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

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Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

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Serious game in which participants had to make decisions based on probabilistic flood forecasts.

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Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalysing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts

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Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalysing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts

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Description of the forecast-based financing system, which automatically triggers humanitarian action based on forecasts or observations. See also https://www.forecast-based-financing.org

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Gambling with Floods? A science & art exhibition

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Gambling with Floods? A science & art exhibition

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How can we work with supercomputers to predict floods in nature’s noisy chaos? This is the question explored by this immersive SciArt installation by Louise Arnal.
Read the blog post about it here: https://sciartfloods.wordpress.com/2020/05/15/gambling-with-floods/

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"Gambling with Floods?" SciArt exhibition - part 1

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‘The Adaptation Conversation’ podcast on ‘Flood Prediction’ with Dr Louise Arnal

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‘The Adaptation Conversation’ podcast on ‘Flood Prediction’ with Dr Louise Arnal

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Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth

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Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth

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A critical evaluation of the value and use of emergency flood bulletins based on global scale ensemble flood forecasts, for early humanitarian action and decision-making ahead of flooding from tropical cyclones.

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Abstract

Humanitarian disasters such as Typhoon Haiyan (SE Asia, 2013) and the Horn of Africa drought (2011-2012) are examples of natural hazards that were predicted, but where forecasts were not sufficiently acted upon, leading to considerable loss of life. These events, alongside international adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, have motivated efforts to enable early action from early warnings. Through initiatives such as Forecast-based Financing (FbF) and the Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) programme, progress is being made towards the use of science and forecasts to support international humanitarian organisations and governments in taking early action and improving disaster resilience. However, many challenges remain in using forecasts systematically for preparedness and response. The research community in place through SHEAR enabled the UK government's Department for International Development to task a collaborative group of scientists to produce probabilistic real-time flood forecast and risk bulletins, aimed at humanitarian decision-makers, for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, which impacted Mozambique in 2019.

The process of bulletin creation during Idai and Kenneth is reviewed and critically evaluated, including evaluation of the forecast information alongside evidence for how useful the bulletins were. In this context, this work seeks to navigate the "murky landscape" of national and international mandates, capacities, and collaborations for forecasting, early warning and anticipatory action, with the ultimate aim of finding out what can be done better in the future. Lessons learnt and future recommendations are discussed to enable better collaboration between producers and users of forecast information.

View Abstract

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Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response

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Humanitarian disasters such as Typhoon Haiyan (SE Asia, 2013) and the Horn of Africa drought (2011-2012) are examples of natural hazards that were predicted, but where forecasts were not sufficiently acted upon, leading to considerable loss of life. These events, alongside international adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, have motivated efforts to enable early action from early warnings.