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Carbon: building block and fuel source

The carbon cycle

The carbon cycle is most easily studied as two interconnected subcycles:

One dealing with rapid carbon exchange among living organisms

One dealing with long-term cycling of carbon through geologic processes

The biological carbon cycle

Carbon enters all food webs, both terrestrial and aquatic, through autotrophs, or self-feeders. Almost all of these autotrophs are photosynthesizers, such as plants or algae.

Autotrophs capture carbon dioxide from the air or bicarbonate ions from the water and use them to make organic compounds such as glucose. Heterotrophs, or other-feeders, such as humans, consume the organic molecules, and the organic carbon is passed through food chains and webs.

How does carbon cycle back to the atmosphere or ocean? To release the energy stored in carbon-containing molecules, such as sugars, autotrophs and heterotrophs break these molecules down in a process called cellular respiration. In this process, the carbons of the molecule are released as carbon dioxide. Decomposers also release organic compounds and carbon dioxide when they break down dead organisms and waste products.

The geological carbon cycle

The geological pathway of the carbon cycle takes much longer than the biological pathway described above. In fact, it usually takes millions of years for carbon to cycle through the geological pathway. Carbon may be stored for long periods of time in the atmosphere, bodies of liquid water-mostly oceans- ocean sediment, soil, rocks, fossil fuels, and Earth's interior.

The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is influenced by the reservoir of carbon in the oceans and vice versa. Carbon dioxide from the atmosphere dissolves in water and reacts with water molecules in the following reactions:

On land, carbon is stored in soil as organic carbon from the decomposition of living organisms or as inorganic carbon from weathering of terrestrial rock and minerals. Deeper under the ground are fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas, which are the remains of plants decomposed under anaerobic-oxygen-free-conditions. Fossil fuels take millions of years to form. When humans burn them, carbon is released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide.

Another way for carbon to enter the atmosphere is by the eruption of volcanoes. Carbon-containing sediments in the ocean floor are taken deep within the Earth in a process called subduction, in which one tectonic plate moves under another. This process forms carbon dioxide, which can be released into the atmosphere by volcanic eruptions or hydrothermal vents.

Human impacts on the carbon cycle

Global demand for Earth's limited fossil fuel reserves has risen since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Fossil fuels are considered a nonrenewable resource because they are being used up much faster than they can be produced by geological processes.

The debate about the future effects of increasing atmospheric carbon on climate change focuses on fossils fuels. However, scientists must take natural processes, such as volcanoes, plant growth, soil carbon levels, and respiration, into account as they model and predict the future impact of this increase.

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The carbon cycle (article) | Ecology | Khan Academy

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Learn for free about math, art, computer programming, economics, physics, chemistry, biology, medicine, finance, history, and more. Khan Academy is a nonprofit with the mission of providing a free, world-class education for anyone, anywhere.

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describe the greenhouse affect

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There are a few types of atoms that can be a part of a plant one day, an animal the next day, and then travel downstream as a part of a river's water the following day. These atoms can be a part of both living things like plants and animals, as well as non-living things like water, air, and even rocks. The same atoms are recycled over and over in different parts of the Earth. This type of cycle of atoms between living and non-living things is known as a biogeochemical cycle.

All of the atoms that are building blocks of living things are a part of biogeochemical cycles. The most common of these are the carbon and nitrogen cycles.

Tiny atoms of carbon and nitrogen are able to move around the planet through these cycles. For example, an atom of carbon is absorbed from the air into the ocean water where it is used by little floating plankton doing photosynthesis to get the nutrition they need. There is the possibility that this little carbon atom becomes part of the plankton's skeleton, or a part of the skeleton of the larger animal that eats it, and then part of a sedimentary rock when the living things die and only bones are left behind. Carbon that is a part of rocks and fossil fuels like oil, coal, and natural gas may be held away from the rest of the carbon cycle for a long time. These long-term storage places are called "sinks". When fossil fuels are burned, carbon that had been underground is sent into the air as carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas.

Recently, people have been causing these biogeochemical cycles to change. When we cut down forests, make more factories, and drive more cars that burn fossil fuels, the way that carbon and nitrogen move around the Earth changes. These changes add more greenhouse gases in our atmosphere and this causes climate change.

The Carbon Cycle

The element carbon is a part of seawater, the atmosphere, rocks such as limestone and coal, soils, as well as all living things. On our dynamic planet, carbon is able to move from one of these realms to another as a part of the carbon cycle.

Carbon moves from the atmosphere to plants. In the atmosphere, carbon is attached to oxygen in a gas called carbon dioxide (CO2). Through the process of photosynthesis, carbon dioxide is pulled from the air to produce food made from carbon for plant growth.

Carbon moves from plants to animals. Through food chains, the carbon that is in plants moves to the animals that eat them. Animals that eat other animals get the carbon from their food too.

Carbon moves from plants and animals to soils. When plants and animals die, their bodies, wood and leaves decays bringing the carbon into the ground. Some is buried and will become fossil fuels in millions and millions of years.

Carbon moves from living things to the atmosphere. Each time you exhale, you are releasing carbon dioxide gas (CO2) into the atmosphere. Animals and plants need to get rid of carbon dioxide gas through a process called respiration.

Carbon moves from fossil fuels to the atmosphere when fuels are burned. When humans burn fossil fuels to power factories, power plants, cars and trucks, most of the carbon quickly enters the atmosphere as carbon dioxide gas. Each year, five and a half billion tons of carbon is released by burning fossil fuels. Of this massive amount, 3.3 billion tons stays in the atmosphere. Most of the remainder becomes dissolved in seawater.

Carbon moves from the atmosphere to the oceans. The oceans, and other bodies of water, absorb some carbon from the atmosphere. The carbon is dissolved into the water.

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and traps heat in the atmosphere. Without it and other greenhouse gases, Earth would be a frozen world. But since the start of the Industrial Revolution about 150 years ago humans have burned so much fuel and released so much carbon dioxide into the air that global climate has risen over one degree Fahrenheit. The atmosphere has not held this much carbon for at least 420,000 years according to data from ice cores. The recent increase in amounts of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide is having a significant impact on the warming of our planet.

Carbon moves through our planet over longer time scales as well. For example, over millions of years weathering of rocks on land can add carbon to surface water which eventually runs off to the ocean. Over long time scales, carbon is removed from seawater when the shells and bones of marine animals and plankton collect on the sea floor. These shells and bones are made of limestone, which contains carbon. When they are deposited on the sea floor, carbon is stored from the rest of the carbon cycle for some amount of time. The amount of limestone deposited in the ocean depends somewhat on the amount of warm, tropical, shallow oceans on the planet because this is where prolific limestone-producing organisms such as corals live. The carbon can be released back to the atmosphere if the limestone melts or is metamorphosed in a subduction zone.

The Nitrogen Cycle

Nitrogen is an element that is found in both the living portion of our planet and the inorganic parts of the Earth system. Nitrogen moves slowly through the cycle and is stored in reservoirs such as the atmosphere, living organisms, soils, and oceans along the way.

Most of the nitrogen on Earth is in the atmosphere. Approximately 80% of the molecules in Earth's atmosphere are made of two nitrogen atoms bonded together (N2). All plants and animals need nitrogen to make amino acids, proteins and DNA, but the nitrogen in the atmosphere is not in a form that they can use. The molecules of nitrogen in the atmosphere can become usable for living things when they are broken apart during lightning strikes or fires, by certain types of bacteria, or by bacteria associated with legume plants. Other plants get the nitrogen they need from the soils or water in which they live mostly in the form of inorganic nitrate (NO3-). Nitrogen is a limiting factor for plant growth. Animals get the nitrogen they need by consuming plants or other animals that contain organic molecules composed partially of nitrogen. When organisms die, their bodies decompose bringing the nitrogen into soil on land or into the oceans. As dead plants and animals decompose, nitrogen is converted into inorganic forms such as ammonium salts (NH4+ ) by a process called mineralization. The ammonium salts are absorbed onto clay in the soil and then chemically altered by bacteria into nitrite (NO2-) and then nitrate (NO3- ). Nitrate is the form commonly used by plants. It is easily dissolved in water and leached from the soil system. Dissolved nitrate can be returned to the atmosphere by certain bacteria through a process called denitrification.

Certain actions of humans are causing changes to the nitrogen cycle and the amount of nitrogen that is stored in reservoirs. The use of nitrogen-rich fertilizers can cause nutrient loading in nearby waterways as nitrates from the fertilizer wash into streams and ponds. The increased nitrate levels cause plants to grow rapidly until they use up the nitrate supply and die. The number of herbivores will increase when the plant supply increases and then the herbivores are left without a food source when the plants die. In this way, changes in nutrient supply will affect the entire food chain. Additionally, humans are altering the nitrogen cycle by burning fossil fuels and forests, which releases various solid forms of nitrogen. Farming also affects the nitrogen cycle. The waste associated with livestock farming releases a large amount of nitrogen into soil and water. In the same way, sewage waste adds nitrogen to soils and water.

Nitrogen and Air Pollution

An unsightly haze of smog, visible from NCAR's Mesa Laboratory, rests over Boulder Valley. (Image: UCAR)

Nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are together known as nitrogen oxides. These nitrogen oxides contribute to the problem of air pollution, playing roles in the formation of both smog and acid rain. They are released into Earth's atmosphere by both natural and human-generated sources.

Nitric oxide is a colorless, flammable gas with a slight odor. Nitrogen dioxide is a deep red-orange gas that is poisonous but not flammable. It, along with aerosols, is responsible for the reddish-brown color of smog. At high concentrations it is highly toxic, and can cause serious lung damage. Nitrogen dioxide is a strong oxidizing agent, and is thus very reactive with other compounds.

Scientists estimate that between 20 and 90 million tons of nitrogen oxides in produced naturally each year from sources such as volcanoes, oceans, biological decay, and lightning strikes. Human activities add another 24 million tons of nitrogen oxides to our atmosphere annually.

Both NO and NO2 are formed during high-temperature combustion in the atmosphere, when oxygen combines with nitrogen. The exhaust gases of cars and trucks are major sources of nitrogen oxides, as are the emissions from electrical power generation plants. Automobile exhaust has more NO than NO2, but once the NO is released into the atmosphere it quickly combines with oxygen in the air to form NO2.

Nitrogen oxides are at least partially responsible for several types of air pollution. Nitrogen dioxide lends its color to the reddish-brown haze we call smog. Photodissociation of nitrogen dioxide by sunlight produces nitric oxide and ozone in the troposphere, which is another component of smog. A series of chemical reactions transform Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) into substances that combine with nitrogen dioxide to produce PAN (Peroxyacytyl nitrate), yet another element in smog. Nitrogen dioxide in the air also reacts with water vapor to form nitric acid, one of the types of acid in acid rain. Nitric oxide concentration in unpolluted air is around 0.01 ppm. In smog, the concentration rises twenty-fold to about 0.2 ppm.

Although nitrogen oxides have gained dubious distinction as pollutants, they are also used beneficially in some industrial processes. Nitric oxide is manufactured on a large scale, and is subsequently used to make nitric acid (HNO3). To create nitric oxide for industrial uses, chemists combine ammonia (NH3) with oxygen (O2), releasing water (H2O) as a byproduct. Nitrogen compounds derived from nitric acid are used to create chemical fertilizers, explosives, and other useful substances.

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There are a few types of atoms that can be a part of a plant one day, an animal the next day, and then travel downstream as a part of a river's water the following day. These atoms can be a part of both living things like plants and animals, as well as non-living things like water, air, and even rocks.

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Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

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The rate of change since the mid-20th century is unprecedented over millennia.

Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 800,000 years, there have been eight cycles of ice ages and warmer periods, with the end of the last ice age about 11,700 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era - and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth's orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.

This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution. (Credit: Luthi, D., et al.. 2008; Etheridge, D.M., et al. 2010; Vostok ice core data/J.R. Petit et al.; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record.) Find out more about ice cores (external site).

The current warming trend is different because it is clearly the result of human activities since the mid-1800s, and is proceeding at a rate not seen over many recent millennia. It is undeniable that human activities have produced the atmospheric gases that have trapped more of the Sun's energy in the Earth system. This extra energy has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land, and widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have occurred.

Do scientists agree on climate change?

Yes, the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists - 97 percent - agree that humans are causing global warming and climate change.

detailed answer

Earth-orbiting satellites and new technologies have helped scientists see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate all over the world. These data, collected over many years, reveal the signs and patterns of a changing climate.

Scientists demonstrated the heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases in the mid-19th century. Many of the science instruments NASA uses to study our climate focus on how these gases affect the movement of infrared radiation through the atmosphere. From the measured impacts of increases in these gases, there is no question that increased greenhouse gas levels warm Earth in response.

"Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal."

- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that Earth's climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly 10 times faster than the average rate of warming after an ice age. Carbon dioxide from human activities is increasing about 250 times faster than it did from natural sources after the last Ice Age.

References

References
Header image shows clouds imitating mountains as the sun sets after midnight as seen from Denali's backcountry Unit 13 on June 14, 2019. Credit: NPS/Emily Mesner

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Climate Change Evidence: How Do We Know?

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Vital Signs of the Planet: Global Climate Change and Global Warming. How do we know it's happening? Here's the evidence.

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Editor's note (11/22/2023): Over the years, we have heard from readers who tell us that they have seen this article being cited by people who deny the reality or seriousness of human-caused global warming. To make it harder for anyone to mischaracterize this article, we are adding this note:

The fact that Earth has been hotter in the past than it is today doesn't prove that recent global warming is natural.
Forest fires can have both natural and human causes. So can climate change. It is partly through figuring out what caused the periods like the ones described in this article that we came to understand that carbon dioxide sets the thermostat of Earth's climate.

The fact that Earth has been hotter in the past than it is today doesn't prove that current warming is harmless, either to people or other life on Earth.

Some previous hot periods led to global mass extinctions.

The hot house periods described in this article occurred millions and millions of years before humans existed. They have no bearing on whether modern human civilization can cope with the level of warming we are likely to face if we do not stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

This article was first published in August 2014, and it has been updated to include new research published since then. This article is one of a three-part series on past temperatures. One is about how warm the Earth has been "lately." The other is about the coldest Earth's ever been.
Our 4.54-billion-year-old planet probably experienced its hottest temperatures in its earliest days, when it was still colliding with other rocky debris ( planetesimals) careening around the solar system. The heat of these collisions would have kept Earth molten, with top-of-the-atmosphere temperatures upward of 3,600° Fahrenheit.

Even after those first scorching millennia, however, the planet has often been much warmer than it is now. One of the warmest times was during the geologic period known as the Neoproterozoic, between 600 and 800 million years ago. Conditions were also frequently sweltering between 500 million and 250 million years ago. And within the last 100 million years, two major heat spikes occurred: the Cretaceous Hot Greenhouse (about 92 million years ago), and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (about 56 million years ago).

History of hot

Temperature records from thermometers and weather stations exist only for a tiny portion of our planet's 4.54-billion-year-long life. By studying indirect clues-the chemical and structural signatures of rocks, fossils, and crystals, ocean sediments, fossilized reefs, tree rings, and ice cores-however, scientists can infer past temperatures.

None of these techniques help with the very early Earth. During the time known as the Hadean (yes, because it was like Hades), Earth's collisions with other large planetesimals in our young solar system-including a Mars-sized one whose impact with Earth likely created the Moon-would have melted and vaporized most rock at the surface. Because no rocks on Earth have survived from so long ago, scientists have estimated early Earth conditions based on observations of the Moon and on astronomical models. Following the collision that spawned the Moon, the planet was estimated to have been around 2,300 Kelvin (3,680°F).

Even after collisions stopped, and the planet had tens of millions of years to cool, surface temperatures were likely more than 400° Fahrenheit. Zircon crystals from Australia, only about 150 million years younger than the Earth itself, hint that our planet may have cooled faster than scientists previously thought. Still, in its infancy, Earth would have experienced temperatures far higher than we humans could possibly survive.

But suppose we exclude the violent and scorching years when Earth first formed. When else has Earth's surface sweltered?

Thawing the freezer

Between 600 and 800 million years ago-a period of time geologists call the Neoproterozoic-evidence suggests the Earth underwent an ice age so cold that ice sheets not only capped the polar latitudes, but may have extended all the way to sea level near the equator. Reflecting ever more sunlight back into space as they expanded, the ice sheets cooled the climate and reinforced their own growth. Obviously, the Earth didn't remain stuck in the freezer, so how did the planet thaw?

Even while ice sheets covered more and more of Earth's surface, tectonic plates continued to drift and collide, so volcanic activity also continued. Volcanoes emit the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. In our current, mostly ice-free world, the natural weathering of silicate rock by rainfall consumes carbon dioxide over geologic time scales. During the frigid conditions of the Neoproterozoic, rainfall became rare. With volcanoes churning out carbon dioxide and little or no rainfall to weather rocks and consume the greenhouse gas, temperatures climbed.

What evidence do scientists have that all this actually happened some 700 million years ago? Some of the best evidence is " cap carbonates" lying directly over Neoproterozoic-age glacial deposits. Cap carbonates-layers of calcium-rich rock such as limestone-only form in warm water.

The fact that these thick, calcium-rich rock layers sat directly on top of rock deposits left behind by retreating glaciers indicate that temperatures rose significantly near the end of the Neoproterozoic, perhaps reaching a global average higher than 90° Fahrenheit. (Today's global average is lower than 60°F.)

The tropical Arctic

A Smithsonian Institution project has tried to reconstruct temperatures for the Phanerozoic Eon, or roughly the last half a billion years. Preliminary results released in 2019 showed warm temperatures dominating most of that time, with global temperatures repeatedly rising above 80°F and even 90°F-much too warm for ice sheets or perennial sea ice. About 250 million years ago, around the equator of the supercontinent Pangea, it was even too hot for peat swamps!

Geologists and paleontologists have found that, in the last 100 million years, global temperatures have peaked twice. One spike was the Cretaceous Hot Greenhouse roughly 92 million years ago, about 25 million years before Earth's last dinosaurs went extinct. Widespread volcanic activity may have boosted atmospheric carbon dioxide. Temperatures were so high that champsosaurs (crocodile-like reptiles) lived as far north as the Canadian Arctic, and warm-temperature forests thrived near the South Pole.

Another hothouse period was the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) about 55-56 million years ago. Though not quite as hot as the Cretaceous hothouse, the PETM brought rapidly rising temperatures. During much of the Paleocene and early Eocene, the poles were free of ice caps, and palm trees and crocodiles lived above the Arctic Circle.

During the PETM, the global mean temperature appears to have risen by as much as 5-8°C (9-14°F) to an average temperature as high as 73°F. (Again, today's global average is shy of 60°F.) At roughly the same time, paleoclimate data like fossilized phytoplankton and ocean sediments record a massive release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, at least doubling or possibly even quadrupling the background concentrations.

It is still uncertain where all the carbon dioxide came from and what the exact sequence of events was. Scientists have considered the drying up of large inland seas, volcanic activity, thawing permafrost, release of methane from warming ocean sediments, huge wildfires, and even-briefly-a comet.

Like nothing we've ever seen

Earth's hottest periods-the Hadean, the late Neoproterozoic, the Cretaceous Hot Greenhouse, the PETM-occurred before humans existed. Those ancient climates would have been like nothing our species has ever seen.

Modern human civilization, with its permanent agriculture and settlements, has developed over just the past 10,000 years or so. The period has generally been one of low temperatures and relative global ( if not regional) climate stability. Compared to most of Earth's history, today is unusually cold; we now live in what geologists call an interglacial-a period between glaciations of an ice age. But as greenhouse-gas emissions warm Earth's climate, it's possible our planet has seen its last glaciation for a long time.

References

British Geological Survey. Impacts of climate change. Accessed February 7, 2022.

Engber, D. (2012, July 5). What's the hottest the Earth has ever gotten?

Hearling, T.W., Harvey, T.H.P., Williams, M., Leng, M.J., Lamb, A.L., Wilby, P.R, Gabbott, S.E., Pohl, A., Donnadieu, Y. (2018). An early Cambrian greenhouse climate. Science Advances, 4(5), easar5690.

Hoffman, P.F. (2009). Snowball Earth. Accessed February 4, 2014.

Hoffman, P.F., Schrag, D.P. (2002). The snowball Earth hypothesis: testing the limits of global change. Terra Nova. 14(3), 129-155.

Huber, B.T., MacLeod, K.G., Watkins, D.K., Coffin, M.F. (2018). The rise and fall of the Cretaceous Hot Greenhouse climate. Global and Planetary Change, 167, 1-23.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2013). IPCC Fifth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers.

Klages, J.P., Salzmann, U., Bickert, T., Hillenbrand, C.-D., Gohl, K., Kuhn, G., Bohaty, S.M., Titschack, J., Müller, J., Frederichs, T., Bauersachs, T., Ehrmann, W., van de Flierdt, T., Pereira, P.S., Larter, R.D., Lohmann, G., Niezgodzki, I., Uenzelmann-Neben, G., ... Dziadek, R. (2020). Temperate rainforests near the South Pole during peak Cretaceous warmth. Nature, 580(7801), 81-86.

Lindsey, R. (2006, March 1). Ancient crystals suggest earlier ocean. NASA Earth Observatory. Accessed February 4, 2014.

McInerney, F. A., & Wing, S. L. (2011). The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: A Perturbation of Carbon Cycle, Climate, and Biosphere with Implications for the Future. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 39(1), 489-516.

Paleoclimatology: How can we infer past climates? Microbial Life Educational Resources, Montana State University. Accessed June 9, 2020.

Retallack, G.J. (2013). Permian and Triassic greenhouse crises. Gondwana Research, 24(1), 90-103.

Royer, D.L., Berner, R.A., Montañez, I.P., Tabor, N.J., Beerling, D.L. (2004). CO₂ as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate. GSA Today, 14( 3), 4-10.

Scientific American Frontiers. (2000, December 19). Deep freeze.[ www.pbs.org/saf/1103/features/deepfreeze.htm] Accessed February 4, 2014.

Sleep, N. H. (2010). The Hadean-Archaean Environment. Cold Spring Harbor Perspectives in Biology, 2(6). doi: 10.1101/cshperspect.a002527

Sun, Y., Joachimski, M.M., Wignall, P.B., Yan, C., Chen, Y., Jiang, H., Wang, L., Lai, X. (2012). Lethally hot temperatures during the early Triassic Greenhouse. Science, 338(6105), 366-370.

Terrestrial Paleoclimate. Eocene latitudinal gradients.[paleoclimate.stanford.edu/research/eocene-latitudinal-gradients] Stanford University School of Earth Sciences. Accessed February 4, 2014.

University of California Museum of Paleontology. The Archean Eon and the Hadean and The Eocene Epoch. Accessed February 4, 2014.

Voosen, P. (2019). Project traces 500 million years of roller-coaster climate. Science, 364(6442), 716-717.

Editor's note (11/22/2023): Over the years, we have heard from readers who tell us that they have seen this article being cited by people who deny the reality or seriousness of human-caused global warming. To make it harder for anyone to mischaracterize this article, we are adding this note:

The fact that Earth has been hotter in the past than it is today doesn't prove that recent global warming is natural.
Forest fires can have both natural and human causes. So can climate change. It is partly through figuring out what caused the periods like the ones described in this article that we came to understand that carbon dioxide sets the thermostat of Earth's climate.

The fact that Earth has been hotter in the past than it is today doesn't prove that current warming is harmless, either to people or other life on Earth.

Some previous hot periods led to global mass extinctions.

The hot house periods described in this article occurred millions and millions of years before humans existed. They have no bearing on whether modern human civilization can cope with the level of warming we are likely to face if we do not stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

This article was first published in August 2014, and it has been updated to include new research published since then. This article is one of a three-part series on past temperatures. One is about how warm the Earth has been "lately." The other is about the coldest Earth's ever been.
Our 4.54-billion-year-old planet probably experienced its hottest temperatures in its earliest days, when it was still colliding with other rocky debris ( planetesimals) careening around the solar system. The heat of these collisions would have kept Earth molten, with top-of-the-atmosphere temperatures upward of 3,600° Fahrenheit.

Even after those first scorching millennia, however, the planet has often been much warmer than it is now. One of the warmest times was during the geologic period known as the Neoproterozoic, between 600 and 800 million years ago. Conditions were also frequently sweltering between 500 million and 250 million years ago. And within the last 100 million years, two major heat spikes occurred: the Cretaceous Hot Greenhouse (about 92 million years ago), and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (about 56 million years ago).

History of hot

Temperature records from thermometers and weather stations exist only for a tiny portion of our planet's 4.54-billion-year-long life. By studying indirect clues-the chemical and structural signatures of rocks, fossils, and crystals, ocean sediments, fossilized reefs, tree rings, and ice cores-however, scientists can infer past temperatures.

None of these techniques help with the very early Earth. During the time known as the Hadean (yes, because it was like Hades), Earth's collisions with other large planetesimals in our young solar system-including a Mars-sized one whose impact with Earth likely created the Moon-would have melted and vaporized most rock at the surface. Because no rocks on Earth have survived from so long ago, scientists have estimated early Earth conditions based on observations of the Moon and on astronomical models. Following the collision that spawned the Moon, the planet was estimated to have been around 2,300 Kelvin (3,680°F).

Even after collisions stopped, and the planet had tens of millions of years to cool, surface temperatures were likely more than 400° Fahrenheit. Zircon crystals from Australia, only about 150 million years younger than the Earth itself, hint that our planet may have cooled faster than scientists previously thought. Still, in its infancy, Earth would have experienced temperatures far higher than we humans could possibly survive.

But suppose we exclude the violent and scorching years when Earth first formed. When else has Earth's surface sweltered?

Thawing the freezer

Between 600 and 800 million years ago-a period of time geologists call the Neoproterozoic-evidence suggests the Earth underwent an ice age so cold that ice sheets not only capped the polar latitudes, but may have extended all the way to sea level near the equator. Reflecting ever more sunlight back into space as they expanded, the ice sheets cooled the climate and reinforced their own growth. Obviously, the Earth didn't remain stuck in the freezer, so how did the planet thaw?

Even while ice sheets covered more and more of Earth's surface, tectonic plates continued to drift and collide, so volcanic activity also continued. Volcanoes emit the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. In our current, mostly ice-free world, the natural weathering of silicate rock by rainfall consumes carbon dioxide over geologic time scales. During the frigid conditions of the Neoproterozoic, rainfall became rare. With volcanoes churning out carbon dioxide and little or no rainfall to weather rocks and consume the greenhouse gas, temperatures climbed.

What evidence do scientists have that all this actually happened some 700 million years ago? Some of the best evidence is " cap carbonates" lying directly over Neoproterozoic-age glacial deposits. Cap carbonates-layers of calcium-rich rock such as limestone-only form in warm water.

The fact that these thick, calcium-rich rock layers sat directly on top of rock deposits left behind by retreating glaciers indicate that temperatures rose significantly near the end of the Neoproterozoic, perhaps reaching a global average higher than 90° Fahrenheit. (Today's global average is lower than 60°F.)

The tropical Arctic

A Smithsonian Institution project has tried to reconstruct temperatures for the Phanerozoic Eon, or roughly the last half a billion years. Preliminary results released in 2019 showed warm temperatures dominating most of that time, with global temperatures repeatedly rising above 80°F and even 90°F-much too warm for ice sheets or perennial sea ice. About 250 million years ago, around the equator of the supercontinent Pangea, it was even too hot for peat swamps!

Geologists and paleontologists have found that, in the last 100 million years, global temperatures have peaked twice. One spike was the Cretaceous Hot Greenhouse roughly 92 million years ago, about 25 million years before Earth's last dinosaurs went extinct. Widespread volcanic activity may have boosted atmospheric carbon dioxide. Temperatures were so high that champsosaurs (crocodile-like reptiles) lived as far north as the Canadian Arctic, and warm-temperature forests thrived near the South Pole.

Another hothouse period was the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) about 55-56 million years ago. Though not quite as hot as the Cretaceous hothouse, the PETM brought rapidly rising temperatures. During much of the Paleocene and early Eocene, the poles were free of ice caps, and palm trees and crocodiles lived above the Arctic Circle.

During the PETM, the global mean temperature appears to have risen by as much as 5-8°C (9-14°F) to an average temperature as high as 73°F. (Again, today's global average is shy of 60°F.) At roughly the same time, paleoclimate data like fossilized phytoplankton and ocean sediments record a massive release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, at least doubling or possibly even quadrupling the background concentrations.

It is still uncertain where all the carbon dioxide came from and what the exact sequence of events was. Scientists have considered the drying up of large inland seas, volcanic activity, thawing permafrost, release of methane from warming ocean sediments, huge wildfires, and even-briefly-a comet.

Like nothing we've ever seen

Earth's hottest periods-the Hadean, the late Neoproterozoic, the Cretaceous Hot Greenhouse, the PETM-occurred before humans existed. Those ancient climates would have been like nothing our species has ever seen.

Modern human civilization, with its permanent agriculture and settlements, has developed over just the past 10,000 years or so. The period has generally been one of low temperatures and relative global ( if not regional) climate stability. Compared to most of Earth's history, today is unusually cold; we now live in what geologists call an interglacial-a period between glaciations of an ice age. But as greenhouse-gas emissions warm Earth's climate, it's possible our planet has seen its last glaciation for a long time.

References

British Geological Survey. Impacts of climate change. Accessed February 7, 2022.

Engber, D. (2012, July 5). What's the hottest the Earth has ever gotten?

Hearling, T.W., Harvey, T.H.P., Williams, M., Leng, M.J., Lamb, A.L., Wilby, P.R, Gabbott, S.E., Pohl, A., Donnadieu, Y. (2018). An early Cambrian greenhouse climate. Science Advances, 4(5), easar5690.

Hoffman, P.F. (2009). Snowball Earth. Accessed February 4, 2014.

Hoffman, P.F., Schrag, D.P. (2002). The snowball Earth hypothesis: testing the limits of global change. Terra Nova. 14(3), 129-155.

Huber, B.T., MacLeod, K.G., Watkins, D.K., Coffin, M.F. (2018). The rise and fall of the Cretaceous Hot Greenhouse climate. Global and Planetary Change, 167, 1-23.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2013). IPCC Fifth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers.

Klages, J.P., Salzmann, U., Bickert, T., Hillenbrand, C.-D., Gohl, K., Kuhn, G., Bohaty, S.M., Titschack, J., Müller, J., Frederichs, T., Bauersachs, T., Ehrmann, W., van de Flierdt, T., Pereira, P.S., Larter, R.D., Lohmann, G., Niezgodzki, I., Uenzelmann-Neben, G., ... Dziadek, R. (2020). Temperate rainforests near the South Pole during peak Cretaceous warmth. Nature, 580(7801), 81-86.

Lindsey, R. (2006, March 1). Ancient crystals suggest earlier ocean. NASA Earth Observatory. Accessed February 4, 2014.

McInerney, F. A., & Wing, S. L. (2011). The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: A Perturbation of Carbon Cycle, Climate, and Biosphere with Implications for the Future. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 39(1), 489-516.

Paleoclimatology: How can we infer past climates? Microbial Life Educational Resources, Montana State University. Accessed June 9, 2020.

Retallack, G.J. (2013). Permian and Triassic greenhouse crises. Gondwana Research, 24(1), 90-103.

Royer, D.L., Berner, R.A., Montañez, I.P., Tabor, N.J., Beerling, D.L. (2004). CO₂ as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate. GSA Today, 14( 3), 4-10.

Scientific American Frontiers. (2000, December 19). Deep freeze.[ www.pbs.org/saf/1103/features/deepfreeze.htm] Accessed February 4, 2014.

Sleep, N. H. (2010). The Hadean-Archaean Environment. Cold Spring Harbor Perspectives in Biology, 2(6). doi: 10.1101/cshperspect.a002527

Sun, Y., Joachimski, M.M., Wignall, P.B., Yan, C., Chen, Y., Jiang, H., Wang, L., Lai, X. (2012). Lethally hot temperatures during the early Triassic Greenhouse. Science, 338(6105), 366-370.

Terrestrial Paleoclimate. Eocene latitudinal gradients.[paleoclimate.stanford.edu/research/eocene-latitudinal-gradients] Stanford University School of Earth Sciences. Accessed February 4, 2014.

University of California Museum of Paleontology. The Archean Eon and the Hadean and The Eocene Epoch. Accessed February 4, 2014.

Voosen, P. (2019). Project traces 500 million years of roller-coaster climate. Science, 364(6442), 716-717.

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Earth's hottest periods occurred before humans existed. Those ancient climates would have been like nothing our species has ever seen.

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Human activities emit 60 or more times the amount of carbon dioxide released by volcanoes each year. Large, violent eruptions may match the rate of human emissions for the few hours that they last, but they are too rare and fleeting to rival humanity's annual emissions. In fact, several individual U.S. states emit more carbon dioxide in a year than all the volcanoes on the planet combined do.

Human activities

Human activities-mostly burning of coal and other fossil fuels, but also cement production, deforestation and other landscape changes-emitted roughly 40 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2015. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, more than 2,000 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide have been added to the atmosphere by human activities according to the Global Carbon Project.

Volcanoes

Volcanoes emit carbon dioxide in two ways: during eruptions and through underground magma. Carbon dioxide from underground magma is released through vents, porous rocks and soils, and water that feeds volcanic lakes and hot springs. Estimates of global carbon dioxide emissions from volcanoes have to take both erupted and non-erupted sources into account.

In a 2011 peer-reviewed paper, U.S. Geologic Survey scientist Terry Gerlach summarized five previous estimates of global volcanic carbon dioxide emission rates that had been published between 1991 and 1998. Those estimates incorporated studies reaching back to the 1970s, and they were based on a wide variety of measurements, such as direct sampling and satellite remote sensing. The global estimates fell within a range of about 0.3 ± 0.15 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year, implying that human carbon dioxide emissions were more than 90 times greater than global volcanic carbon dioxide emissions.

In 2013, another group of scientists-Michael Burton, Georgina Sawyer, and Domenico Granieri-published an updated estimate using more data on carbon dioxide emissions from subsurface magma that had become available in the years since the last global estimate. While acknowledging a large range of variability in the estimates, the authors concluded that the best overall estimate was about 0.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year.

While higher than Gerlach's estimate, the figure is still just a fraction of carbon dioxide output from human activities. Gerlach remarked via email, "Taken at face value, their result implies that anthropogenic CO ₂ exceeds global volcanic CO ₂ by at least a factor of 60 times."

Occasionally, eruptions are powerful enough to release carbon dioxide at a rate that matches or even exceeds the global rate of human emissions for a few hours. For example, Gerlach estimated that the eruptions of Mount St. Helens (1980) and Pinatubo (1991) both released carbon dioxide on a scale similar to human output for about nine hours. Human emissions of carbon dioxide continue day after day, month after month, year after year.

Today versus the past

Volcanic activity today may pale in comparison to the carbon dioxide emissions we are generating by burning fossil fuels for energy, but over the course of geologic time, volcanoes have occasionally contributed to global warming by producing significant amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

For example, some geologists hypothesize that 250 million years ago, an extensive flood of lava poured continually from the ground in Siberia perhaps hundreds of thousands of years. This large-scale, long-lasting eruption likely raised global temperatures enough to cause one of the worst extinction events in our planet's history. Current volcanic activity doesn't occur on the same massive scale.

Climate cooling

Today, rather than warming global climate, volcanic eruptions often have the opposite effect. That's because carbon dioxide isn't the only thing that volcanoes inject into the atmosphere. Even small eruptions often produce volcanic ash and aerosol particles.

Whether from small or large eruptions, volcanic aerosols reflect sunlight back into space, cooling global climate. The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora produced enough ash and aerosols to cancel summer in Europe and North America in 1816.

References

Boden, T.A., Marland, G., Andres, R.J. (2015). Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.

Burton, M.R., Sawyer, G.M., Granieri, D. (2013). Deep carbon emissions from volcanoes. Reviews in Mineralogy and Geochemistry, 75, 323-354.

Cook, J. (2015). Do volcanoes emit more CO2 than humans? Skeptical Science. Accessed May 11, 2016.

Gerlach, T. (2011). Volcanic versus anthropogenic carbon dioxide. EOS, 92(24), 201-202.

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. (2007, February 15). Which produces more CO₂, volcanic or human activity? U.S. Geological Survey. Accessed May 11, 2016.

Houghton, R.A., van der Werf, G.R., DeFries, R.S., Hansen, M.C., House, J.I., Le Quéré, C., Pongratz, J., Ramankutty, N. (2012). Chapter G2 Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change, Biogeosciences, 9, 5125-514.

IPCC. (2014). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Le Quéré, et al. (2015). Global Carbon Budget 2015, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349-396, doi:10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015.

Oskin, B. (2013, December 12). Earth's Greatest Killer Finally Caught. LiveScience.

Ridley, D. A., Solomon, S., Barnes, J. E., Burlakov, V. D. (2015). Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 7763-7769.

Self, S., Zhao, J-X., Holasek, R., Torres, R., and King, A. (1999). The Atmospheric Impact of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo Eruption. [Online] U.S. Geological Survey Website. http://pubs.usgs.gov/pinatubo/self/ Accessed June 16, 2016.

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. (2012). Mount Tambora and the Year Without a Summer. Accessed May 11, 2016.

Understanding Evolution. Volcanic activity and mass extinction. Accessed May 12, 2016.

U.S. Energy Information Administration. Total Energy. Accessed May 11, 2016.

Human activities emit 60 or more times the amount of carbon dioxide released by volcanoes each year. Large, violent eruptions may match the rate of human emissions for the few hours that they last, but they are too rare and fleeting to rival humanity's annual emissions. In fact, several individual U.S. states emit more carbon dioxide in a year than all the volcanoes on the planet combined do.

Human activities

Human activities-mostly burning of coal and other fossil fuels, but also cement production, deforestation and other landscape changes-emitted roughly 40 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2015. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, more than 2,000 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide have been added to the atmosphere by human activities according to the Global Carbon Project.

Volcanoes

Volcanoes emit carbon dioxide in two ways: during eruptions and through underground magma. Carbon dioxide from underground magma is released through vents, porous rocks and soils, and water that feeds volcanic lakes and hot springs. Estimates of global carbon dioxide emissions from volcanoes have to take both erupted and non-erupted sources into account.

In a 2011 peer-reviewed paper, U.S. Geologic Survey scientist Terry Gerlach summarized five previous estimates of global volcanic carbon dioxide emission rates that had been published between 1991 and 1998. Those estimates incorporated studies reaching back to the 1970s, and they were based on a wide variety of measurements, such as direct sampling and satellite remote sensing. The global estimates fell within a range of about 0.3 ± 0.15 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year, implying that human carbon dioxide emissions were more than 90 times greater than global volcanic carbon dioxide emissions.

In 2013, another group of scientists-Michael Burton, Georgina Sawyer, and Domenico Granieri-published an updated estimate using more data on carbon dioxide emissions from subsurface magma that had become available in the years since the last global estimate. While acknowledging a large range of variability in the estimates, the authors concluded that the best overall estimate was about 0.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year.

While higher than Gerlach's estimate, the figure is still just a fraction of carbon dioxide output from human activities. Gerlach remarked via email, "Taken at face value, their result implies that anthropogenic CO ₂ exceeds global volcanic CO ₂ by at least a factor of 60 times."

Occasionally, eruptions are powerful enough to release carbon dioxide at a rate that matches or even exceeds the global rate of human emissions for a few hours. For example, Gerlach estimated that the eruptions of Mount St. Helens (1980) and Pinatubo (1991) both released carbon dioxide on a scale similar to human output for about nine hours. Human emissions of carbon dioxide continue day after day, month after month, year after year.

Today versus the past

Volcanic activity today may pale in comparison to the carbon dioxide emissions we are generating by burning fossil fuels for energy, but over the course of geologic time, volcanoes have occasionally contributed to global warming by producing significant amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

For example, some geologists hypothesize that 250 million years ago, an extensive flood of lava poured continually from the ground in Siberia perhaps hundreds of thousands of years. This large-scale, long-lasting eruption likely raised global temperatures enough to cause one of the worst extinction events in our planet's history. Current volcanic activity doesn't occur on the same massive scale.

Climate cooling

Today, rather than warming global climate, volcanic eruptions often have the opposite effect. That's because carbon dioxide isn't the only thing that volcanoes inject into the atmosphere. Even small eruptions often produce volcanic ash and aerosol particles.

Whether from small or large eruptions, volcanic aerosols reflect sunlight back into space, cooling global climate. The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora produced enough ash and aerosols to cancel summer in Europe and North America in 1816.

References

Boden, T.A., Marland, G., Andres, R.J. (2015). Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.

Burton, M.R., Sawyer, G.M., Granieri, D. (2013). Deep carbon emissions from volcanoes. Reviews in Mineralogy and Geochemistry, 75, 323-354.

Cook, J. (2015). Do volcanoes emit more CO2 than humans? Skeptical Science. Accessed May 11, 2016.

Gerlach, T. (2011). Volcanic versus anthropogenic carbon dioxide. EOS, 92(24), 201-202.

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. (2007, February 15). Which produces more CO₂, volcanic or human activity? U.S. Geological Survey. Accessed May 11, 2016.

Houghton, R.A., van der Werf, G.R., DeFries, R.S., Hansen, M.C., House, J.I., Le Quéré, C., Pongratz, J., Ramankutty, N. (2012). Chapter G2 Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change, Biogeosciences, 9, 5125-514.

IPCC. (2014). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Le Quéré, et al. (2015). Global Carbon Budget 2015, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349-396, doi:10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015.

Oskin, B. (2013, December 12). Earth's Greatest Killer Finally Caught. LiveScience.

Ridley, D. A., Solomon, S., Barnes, J. E., Burlakov, V. D. (2015). Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 7763-7769.

Self, S., Zhao, J-X., Holasek, R., Torres, R., and King, A. (1999). The Atmospheric Impact of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo Eruption. [Online] U.S. Geological Survey Website. http://pubs.usgs.gov/pinatubo/self/ Accessed June 16, 2016.

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. (2012). Mount Tambora and the Year Without a Summer. Accessed May 11, 2016.

Understanding Evolution. Volcanic activity and mass extinction. Accessed May 12, 2016.

U.S. Energy Information Administration. Total Energy. Accessed May 11, 2016.

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Which emits more carbon dioxide: volcanoes or human activities?

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Human activities emit 60 or more times the amount of carbon dioxide released by volcanoes each year.

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As humans continue to pour greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, oceans have tempered the effect. The world's seas have absorbed more than 90 percent of the heat from these gases, but it's taking a toll on our oceans: 2021 set a new record for ocean heating.

Rising seas is one of those climate change effects. Average sea levels have swelled over 8 inches (about 23 cm) since 1880, with about three of those inches gained in the last 25 years. Every year, the sea rises another .13 inches (3.2 mm.) Research published in February 2022 shows that sea level rise is accelerating and projected to rise by a foot by 2050.

That translates into as much sea level rise in the next 30 years as occurred over the last century, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Rick Spinrad, the NOAA administrator, called the findings "historic," and warned that the projected rise will occur even if carbon emissions are drastically cut.

(How carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases contribute to climate change.)

In the United States, the most vulnerable populations live on the East and Gulf Coasts, where damaging flooding is predicted to occur 10 times more often in 2050 than it does today. The acceleration of sea level rise along these coasts is "unprecedented in at least 120 years," according to a study published in April 2023.

Here's what you need to know about the causes-and consequences-of sea level rise.

Causes of sea level rise

The change in sea levels is linked to three primary factors, all induced by ongoing global climate change:

Thermal expansion: When water heats up, it expands. About half of the sea-level rise over the past 25 years is attributable to warmer oceans simply occupying more space.

Melting glaciers: Large ice formations such as mountain glaciers naturally melt a bit each summer. In the winter, snows, primarily from evaporated seawater, are generally sufficient to balance out the melting. Recently, though, persistently higher temperatures caused by global warming have led to greater-than-average summer melting as well as diminished snowfall due to later winters and earlier springs. That creates an imbalance between runoff and ocean evaporation, causing sea levels to rise.

Loss of Greenland and Antarctica's ice sheets: As with mountain glaciers, increased heat is causing the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica to melt more quickly. Scientists also believe that meltwater from above and seawater from below is seeping beneath Greenland's ice sheets, effectively lubricating ice streams and causing them to move more quickly into the sea. While melting in West Antarctica has drawn considerable focus from scientists, especially with the 2017 break in the Larsen C ice shelf, glaciers in East Antarctica are also showing signs of destabilizing.

Consequences

When sea levels rise as rapidly as they have been, even a small increase can have devastating effects on coastal habitats farther inland, it can cause destructive erosion, wetland flooding, aquifer and agricultural soil contamination with salt, and lost habitat for fish, birds, and plants.

(Here's how warming oceans affects wildlife and storm systems.)

Higher sea levels are coinciding with more dangerous hurricanes and typhoons that move more slowly and drop more rain, contributing to more powerful storm surges that can strip away everything in their path. One study found that between 1963 and 2012, almost half of all deaths from Atlantic hurricanes were caused by storm surges.

Already, flooding in low-lying coastal areas is forcing people to migrate to higher ground, and millions more are vulnerable from flood risk and other climate change effects. The prospect of higher coastal water levels threatens basic services such as Internet access, since much of the underlying communications infrastructure lies in the path of rising seas.

Adapting to the threat

As a result of these risks, many coastal cities are already planning adaptation measures to cope with the long-term prospects of higher sea levels, often at considerable cost. Building seawalls, rethinking roads, and planting mangroves or other vegetation to absorb water are all being undertaken.

In Jakarta, a $40 billion project will aim to protect the city with an 80-foot-high seawall. Rotterdam, home to the Global Center on Adaptation, has offered a model to other cities seeking to combat flooding and land loss. The Dutch city has built barriers, drainage, and innovative architectural features such as a "water square" with temporary ponds.

Of course, communities vulnerable to rising seas can only go so far in holding back the tide. In the Marshall Islands, where rising sea levels are forcing a choice between relocating or building up the land, residents will need help from other nations if they decide to undertake the expensive latter option.

How high will it go?

Most predictions say the warming of the planet will continue and is likely to accelerate, causing the oceans to keep rising. This means hundreds of coastal cities face flooding. But forecasting how much and how soon seas will rise remains an area of ongoing research.

A special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says we can expect the oceans to rise between 10 and 30 inches (26 to 77 centimeters) by 2100 with temperatures warming 1.5 °C. That's enough to seriously affect many of the cities along the U.S. East Coast. Another analysis based on NASA and European data skewed toward the higher end of that range, predicting a rise of 26 inches (65 centimeters) by the end of this century if the current trajectory continues.

If all the ice that currently exists on Earth in glaciers and sheets melted it would raise sea level by 216 feet. That could cause entire states and even some countries to disappear under the waves, from Florida to Bangladesh. That's not a scenario scientists think is likely, and it would probably take many centuries, but it could eventually happen if the world keeps burning fossil fuels indiscriminately.

In the meantime, scientists keep refining their models of sea-level changes. They also point out that the extent to which countries work together to limit release of more greenhouse gases may have a significant impact on how quickly seas rise, and how much.

Editor's Note: This story was originally published on February 19, 2019. It has been updated with new data.

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Seas are predicted to rise a foot by 2050, regardless of how much global carbon emissions can be reduced. Why is this happening, and what can we do to adapt?

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All living things are made of carbon. Carbon is also a part of the ocean, air, and even rocks. Because the Earth is a dynamic place, carbon does not stay still. It is on the move!

In the atmosphere, carbon is attached to some oxygen in a gas called carbon dioxide.

Plants use carbon dioxide and sunlight to make their own food and grow. The carbon becomes part of the plant. Plants that die and are buried may turn into fossil fuels made of carbon like coal and oil over millions of years. When humans burn fossil fuels, most of the carbon quickly enters the atmosphere as carbon dioxide.

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and traps heat in the atmosphere. Without it and other greenhouse gases, Earth would be a frozen world. But humans have burned so much fuel that there is about 30% more carbon dioxide in the air today than there was about 150 years ago, and Earth is becoming a warmer place. In fact, ice cores show us that there is now more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than there has been in the last 420,000 years.

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All living things are made of carbon. Carbon is also a part of the ocean, air, and even rocks. Because the Earth is a dynamic place, carbon does not stay still. It is on the move! In the atmosphere, carbon is attached to some oxygen in a gas called carbon dioxide.

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Australia's climate is changing. Observed changes over the 20th century include increases in global average air and ocean temperature, rising global sea levels, long-term sustained widespread reduction of snow and ice cover, and changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation and regional weather patterns, which influence seasonal rainfall conditions. ​

These changes are caused by extra heat in the climate system due to the addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The additional greenhouse gases are primarily due to human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), agriculture, and land clearing. These activities increase the amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The pattern of observed changes in the climate system is consistent with an increased greenhouse effect. Other climatic influences like volcanoes, the sun and natural variability cannot explain the timing and extent of the observed changes.

The evidence of climate change is supported by extensive scientific research performed and reported across the world. Past and present climate information is collected from observations and measurements of our environment, including trapped air in ice from thousands of years ago. Climate models are used to understand the causes of climate change and to project changes into the future.

Many of the impacts of climate change pose risks to human and natural systems, through more frequent and severe heat waves, coastal inundation due to sea level rise, disruptions to rainfall patterns and other effects. Analyses of a range of climate scenarios indicate the most severe risks of climate change can largely be mitigated if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to the point they are no longer accumulating in the atmosphere.

Greenhouse gas effect

The greenhouse effect is a natural process that warms the Earth's surface. When the Sun's energy reaches the Earth's atmosphere, some of it is reflected back to space and some is absorbed and re-radiated by greenhouse gases.

Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and some artificial chemicals such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).

The absorbed energy warms the atmosphere and the surface of the Earth. This process maintains the Earth's temperature at around 33 degrees Celsius warmer than it would otherwise be, allowing life on Earth to exist.

Increased greenhouse effect

The problem we now face is that human activities - particularly burning fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas), agriculture and land clearing - are increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases. This is increasing the greenhouse effect, which is contributing to warming of the Earth.

Greenhouse effect

Step 1: Solar radiation reaches the Earth's atmosphere - some of this is reflected back into space.

Step 2: The rest of the sun's energy is absorbed by the land and the oceans, heating the Earth.

Step 3: Heat radiates from Earth towards space.

Step 4: Some of this radiative heat is trapped by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, keeping the Earth warm enough to sustain life.

Step 5: Human activities such as burning fossil fuels, agriculture and land clearing are increasing the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere.

Step 6: This is trapping extra heat, and causing the Earth's temperature to rise, along with other effects like ocean acidification noted in the figure below.

Observed changes

Alternate text for "There are multiple lines of evidence that show the climate system is changing"

There are multiple lines of evidence that show the climate system is changing. These include:

record high surface air temperatures

increased average number of hot days per year

decreased average number of cold days per year

increasing intensity and frequency of extreme events (e.g. fires, floods)

changing rainfall patterns

increasing sea surface temperatures

rising sea levels

increasing ocean heat content

increasing ocean acidification

changing Southern Ocean currents

melting ice caps and glaciers

decreasing Arctic sea ice

Australia is already experiencing the impacts of a changing climate, particularly changes associated with increases in temperature, frequency and intensity of heatwaves, hazardous fire weather and drought conditions. Climate observations and future projections show that these changes from the historical climate are ongoing and long-term, and that they cannot be explained by natural variability (though they do interact with underlying natural variability).

Australia's changing climate

Air temperatures have increased globally by around 1.2 degrees Celsius since the late 1800s. This is when modern meteorological record keeping became widespread and reliable enough to produce global datasets. Most of the warming from 1880 to present has occurred since the 1970s. The observed increase in temperatures has occurred across the globe, with rising temperatures recorded on all continents and in the ocean. 2016 and 2020 are tied for the world's warmest year on record, and years 2015 and 2017 were the equal second warmest years on record globally.

Australia's weather and climate are changing in response to a warming global climate. Australia has warmed on average by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C since 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950 and every decade since then being warmer than the ones before.

Australia's warmest year on record was 2019, with an average temperature 1.52°C above the 1961-1990 average. The seven years from 2013 to 2019 all rank in the warmest years on record. This long-term warming trend means that most years are now warmer than almost any observed during the 20th century. When relatively cooler years do occur, it is because natural drivers that typically cool Australia's climate, such as La Niña, act to partially offset the background warming trend (Figure 1).

Ocean warming and sea level rise

One of the strongest indicators of climate change is the amount of heat stored in the world's oceans. The heat content of oceans has increased during recent decades and accounts for more than 90 per cent of the total heat trapped by added greenhouse gases and accumulated by the land, air and ocean since the 1970s. Ocean warming is continuing, especially in the top several hundred metres of the ocean. In the Australian region, the average sea surface temperature for each decade since 1900 has been warmer than the previous decade (Figure 2).

Average sea surface temperature in the Australian region has warmed by more than 1°C since 1900, with eight of the ten warmest years on record occurring since 2010. The warmest year on record was 2016, associated with one of the strongest negative Indian Ocean Dipole events on record.

The greatest ocean warming in the Australian region since 1970 has occurred around southeastern Australia and Tasmania. The East Australian Current now extends farther south than in earlier decades, creating an area in the Tasman Sea where the warming rate is now twice the global average. There has also been warming across large areas of the Indian Ocean region to the southwest of Australia. Warming of the ocean has contributed to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves.

The increasing frequency of marine heatwaves around Australia in recent years has caused significant impacts on marine ecosystem health, marine habitats and species. These impacts include depleting kelp forests and sea grasses, a poleward shift in some marine species, and increased occurrence of disease. Recent marine heatwaves are the primary cause of mass coral bleaching and widespread damage to coral reefs around Australia, including the Great Barrier and Ningaloo reefs. Other pressures such as tropical cyclones, nutrient runoff and disease also affect the health of some areas of the Great Barrier Reef.

There is clear evidence that sea levels have risen as a result of climate change, based on observations from tide gauges, measurements of our past climate and satellite measurements.

Global mean sea level rise is accelerating. Tide gauge and satellite altimetry observations show that the rate of global mean sea level rise increased from 1.5 ± 0.2 cm per decade (1901-2000) to 3.5 ± 0.4 cm per decade (1993-2019). The dominant cause of global mean sea level rise since 1970 is anthropogenic climate change. Australia, like other nations, is already experiencing sea level rise. Sea level varies from year to year and from place to place, partly due to the natural variability of the climate system from the effect of climate drivers such as El Niño and La Niña. Based on satellite altimetry observations since 1993, the rates of sea level rise to the north and southeast of Australia have been significantly higher than the global average, whereas rates of sea level rise along the other coasts of the continent have been closer to the global average. (Figure 3).

Ocean currents are also changing, particularly in the Southern Ocean. Studies have shown that the deepest ocean water in the Antarctic, which is normally the coldest water, has warmed and become less saline since the 1980s. The world's deep ocean currents play a critical role in transporting heat around the planet, thus regulating the climate. Warming of these currents alters their ability to perform this function.

Another serious impact of the increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide is ocean acidification. Around a quarter of the carbon dioxide produced by humans is absorbed by the oceans. As the carbon dioxide dissolves in sea water it forms carbonic acid, making the ocean more acidic. There are early indications that some marine organisms are already being affected by ocean acidification.

Many marine species that have low mobility or rely on specific habitats or narrow temperature ranges for survival, such as marine plants, corals, and other invertebrates, may not be able to move to new or more suitable habitats. If they cannot move, then as the oceans become warmer and more acidic it becomes harder for these organisms to evolve quickly enough for populations to remain viable. For those marine organisms that form shells or bodies of calcium carbonate minerals, (for example, molluscs and corals), it also becomes more difficult for them to capture and absorb the minerals they need from the sea water to maintain and grow their bodies.

Initially these changes are likely to have the greatest impacts on marine environments such as coral reefs as well as the Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems. Eventually almost all aquatic ecosystems will be affected by increasing levels of ocean warming and acidification if greenhouse gas emissions are not curbed and reversed.

Extreme weather events

Extreme weather and climate events have serious impacts on our economy, society and environment. Extreme weather events include heatwaves, bushfires, tropical cyclones, cold snaps, extreme rainfall including flash flooding, and droughts.

There is increasing evidence that the frequency and intensity of many types of extreme weather events are changing. Extreme hot days in Australia are getting hotter, with the frequency of very hot (greater than 40°C) daytime temperatures increasing since the 1990s (Figure 4).

In addition, there has been an increase in extreme fire weather and fire season length across large parts of Australia since the 1950s, with a rapid increase in the late 1990s to early 2000s at many locations in south-eastern Australia.

Individual extreme events occur as a result of a number of contributing climatic factors. A growing body of research provides estimates of the relative contribution of natural variability and anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change to individual extreme events. For example, a study by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science analysed the record heat and record low rainfall in winter 2017. It found that conditions were 60 times more likely to have occurred because of climate change than they would have otherwise.

Understanding the influences on such events helps us to better understand how and why extreme events are changing and allows us to plan for the future impacts of these events in Australia.

Rainfall patterns

Rainfall patterns are changing around the world. Research shows the global water cycle is intensifying with a warming climate, which means wet areas are likely to get wetter and dry regions are likely to be drier in response to climate change.

Australian rainfall is highly variable. Average annual rainfall has slightly increased since 1900, with a large increase in northwest Australia since 1970. Trends in rainfall over recent decades include:

increased spring and summer monsoonal rainfall across the north

higher than normal rainfall across the centre

decreased late autumn and winter rainfall across the south.

A climate change signal has been identified in the observed long-term reduction of cool season rainfall in southern Australia, with significant declines since the 1970s in southwest Western Australia (17 per cent), and since the mid-1990s in south-eastern Australia. South-eastern Australia experienced the most persistent rainfall deficit between 1997 and 2009 since records began at the start of the 20th Century.

More information on general climate impacts across Australia is provided in the State of the Climate 2020 report or on the website Climate Change in Australia.

Climate resources

Climate change science provides the information needed to understand and plan for climate change impacts, thereby increasing community resilience and reducing the cost of climate change impacts to society. Australian scientists are at the forefront of global efforts to understand the science behind climate change. Australia has a unique interest in and responsibility for leading climate change research in the southern hemisphere.

Climate change science is provided to the Australian Government by agencies such as the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, state and territory government agencies, as well as university research groups and cooperative research centres. Climate change science from these sources is reliable and quality assured because it goes through a stringent process of peer-review during which other scientists check the results of the research.

Peer-reviewed research

The peer-review process involves scientists evaluating the quality of other scientists' work. It provides a mechanism to quality control scientific discourse and peer-reviewed papers, by ensuring that the work is rigorous, coherent, uses past research and adds to what we already know. Climate change science that has been peer-reviewed therefore provides a reliable and quality assured source of information.

To publish in most scientific journals, conference proceedings, and to apply for grants, scientists have to go through a peer review process. The peer review process is usually a 'blind' review. This means that the authors do not know the identity of the reviewers. This process is designed to ensure evaluation is independent.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assesses the peer-reviewed literature on climate change every five to six years, and publishes its findings in Assessment Reports. The IPCC reports are themselves subject to an intense peer-review process involving hundreds of scientific experts and government reviewers. This unprecedented level of peer and government review makes this compendium of climate change science one of the most scrutinised documents in the history of science.

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Temperature

Oceans

Extremes

Rainfall

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Australia's climate is changing. Observed changes over the 20th century include increases in global average air and ocean temperature, rising global sea levels, long-term sustained widespread reduction of snow and ice cover, and changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation and regional weather patterns, which influence seasonal rainfall conditions.​

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Check out the impacts tab!

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Effects of Climate Change | Threats | WWF

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Sea levels are rising and oceans are becoming warmer. Longer, more intense droughts threaten crops, wildlife and freshwater supplies. From polar bears in the Arctic to marine turtles off the coast of Africa, our planet’s diversity of life is at risk from the changing climate.
Climate change poses a…

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How can climate change affect people's health in the future?

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How can climate change affect people's health in the future?

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The health of millions of people across the world is already being significantly harmed by climate change, a major new report finds.

From driving up the number of people exposed to heatwaves to increasing the risk of infectious diseases, such as dengue fever, climate change has had far-reaching effects on many aspects of human health in last few decades, the authors say.

In fact, the effect of climate change on human health is now so severe that it should be considered "the major threat of the 21st century", scientists said at a press briefing held in London.

The report is the first from the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, a project involving 24 academic institutions and intergovernmental organisations from across the world. The project plans to release a report tracking progress on climate change and global health every year.

Feeling the heat

The report uses a set of 40 indicators to track the effects of climate change on global health. The first of these indicators assesses the "direct impacts" of climate change on human health, including the effects of exposure to extreme heat and natural disasters.

One of the report's findings is that, from 2000 to 2016, the rise in the average temperatures that humans were exposed to was around three times higher than the rise of average global temperatures worldwide.

This is shown on the graph below, where the rise in the global average surface temperature from 2000 to 2016, when compared to the average from 1986 to 2008 (red), is shown alongside the rise in the temperatures that humans are typically exposed to (blue).

The average temperatures that humans are exposed to are significantly higher than the global surface average because most people live on land, where warming happens most quickly, explains Prof Peter Cox, an author of the new report and a climate scientist at the University of Exeter. He tells Carbon Brief:

"Generally speaking, when you look at where people are, the rate of change appears much larger than when we look at global averages. So maybe when we think about global targets, we should be always bearing in mind that the global mean temperature doesn't really mean much to most people. We don't live on the ocean, which is two-thirds of the global mean. We live on the land, and on the land that tends to warm fastest."

The report also finds the number of "vulnerable" people exposed to "heatwave" events increased by around 125 million between 2000 and 2016. "Vulnerable" is here defined as being over the age of 65, while a "heatwave" is defined as three consecutive nights where temperatures are in the top 1% of the 1986-2006 average for the region.

In 2015, a record 175 million more people were exposed to heatwaves, when compared to the average for 1986-2008, the report finds. You can see this in the chart below, which shows the change in the number of people exposed to heatwaves from 2000 to 2016, relative to 1986-2008.

These spikes in exposure are a result of an increase in heatwave events, as well as other environmental and social factors, including population growth, Cox says.

Heatwave exposure has previously been linked to an increased risk of premature death in many parts of the world, he explains:

"During the 2003 European heatwave, there were 75,000 extra premature deaths in Europe, including 2,000 in the UK. That was mainly because of people not being able to recover, and I guess breathing gets harder when it's hot too. There is a correlation between these periods of hot nights and mortality. I suspect there must be a correlation with ill health as well."

( Carbon Brief has previously reported on the health risks posed by heatwaves.)

Natural disasters

The report finds that the number of weather-related disasters from 2007 to 2016 increased by 46%, when compared with the average for 1990-1999.

Asia is the continent most affected by weather-related disasters, the report says - particularly because of its size and population. Between 1990 and 2016, 2,843 weather-related disasters were recorded in Asia, affecting 4.8 billion people and causing more than 500,000 deaths.

Despite a rise in the number of natural disasters, there has been no discernable rise in the global number of deaths or in the number of people affected by natural disasters, when compared to data from 1990 to 1999, the report finds.

This could indicate that countries are beginning to invest in adaptation strategies to cope with natural disasters, Cox says. However, the mismatch could also reflect a lack of data on deaths from climate-related disasters in the developing world, he adds:

"If you look at what happens when a disaster strikes, if it's in the rich developed world, it leads to economic damages but we don't lose people. If it's in the developing world, then we lose lives.

"It is true that there is a kind of contradiction in that exposure is going up, but actually the number of people affected, at least recorded as affected, is staying flat, which either means we're building greater resilience [to climate change], which I suspect is not true, or that the data we're collecting on the amount of money being lost is better than on the amount of people being lost."

Losses to the global workforce

Another set of indicators explored by the report look at the "human-mediated" impacts of climate change. These are impacts that are intrinsically linked to human society, but often exacerbated by climate change.

The first of these indicators explores how climate change has affected the productivity of the global workforce, particularly in the less economically-developed parts of the world. The report finds that the global productivity in rural labour capacity - defined as those who work in outdoor manual labour in rural areas, but excluding agricultural workers - has fallen by 5.3% from 2000 to 2016.

The chart below shows how this global loss in productivity is spread across the world, with red indicating a percentage loss in productivity and blue showing a percentage gain in labour capacity.

In 2016, this drop in productivity effectively took more than 920,000 people globally out of the workforce, the report finds, with 418,000 of these workers being "lost" from India.

One way that higher temperatures threaten labour capacity is by making manual work more physically challenging, the report finds:

"Higher temperatures pose profound threats to occupational health and labour productivity, particularly for people undertaking manual, outdoor labour in hot areas. Loss of labour capacity has important implications for the livelihoods of individuals, families, and communities, especially those relying on subsistence farming."

An additional "human-mediated" impact of climate change is undernutrition, the report finds. It reports that the number of undernourished people in the top 30 undernourished countries of the world has increased from 398 million in 1990 to 422 million in 2016.

This is at least in part driven by the effect of climate change of yields of staple crops such as wheat, rice and maize, the report says. Climate change affects crop yields through increasing local temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns and more cases of drought. The report says:

"Increasing temperatures have been shown to reduce global wheat production by 6% for each 1C increase. Rice yields are sensitive to increases in night temperatures, with each 1C increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season resulting in a 10% decrease in rice grain yield. Higher temperatures have been demonstrated rigorously to have a negative impact on crop yields in countries in lower latitudes. Moreover, agriculture in lower latitudes tends to be more marginal, and more people are food insecure."

Infectious diseases

The report also investigates the "environment-mediated" impacts of climate change. These are impacts on human health that are caused by environmental factors but can be worsened by climate change.

One such impact is the spread of infectious diseases around the globe. Rising temperatures can increase the spread of infectious diseases by allowing pests to conquer new parts of the world, as well as by creating ideal conditions for reproduction and virus replication.

Climate change has affected the prevalence of many infectious diseases, the report notes. However, as an example, the report focuses on how climate change has impacted the spread of dengue fever, a disease spread by mosquitoes native to much of southeast Asia, central and south America, and Africa.

The research shows that the rate of the spread of dengue fever has increased from between 3% and 5.9% globally, when compared to levels from 1990.

The chart below shows how the rate of the spread of dengue fever (vectorial capacity) has increased in the world's most affected countries from 1950 to 2015. The chart shows results from two species of mosquito, including yellow fever mosquito ( Aedes aegypti; left) and Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus; right).

On the heat map, each block represents one year, with red showing an increase in spread and blue showing a decrease in spread. The chart shows that, since 1995, the vast majority of countries have experienced an increase in the rate of the spread of dengue fever.

The increase in the rate of the spread of dengue fever could be driven by changes in environmental conditions as a result of climate change, says Prof Hugh Montgomery, co-chair of The Lancet Countdown and a professor at University College London. He told the press conference:

"It's essentially because of the transmissibility, the ability of the virus to be spread by mosquito vector. As you get areas that get wetter, the mosquito has a habitat it can live in; populations go up as it gets warmer, they breed more frequently, they feed faster. So it gets easier to spread the bug, and that's really why we're seeing a doubling in the spread rate of dengue cases."

Outlook

Looking to the future, the report also explores how climate change could bring new health-related woes, including an increase in the displacement of people as a result of sea level rise.

It is clear that both the current and potential future impacts of climate change on health demand immediate action on tackling fossil fuel use, says Cox, adding that it is not too late to stem some of the effects of climate change on human health. He tells Carbon Brief:

"The co-benefits of action on climate are so huge, I think, well, maybe we present this the wrong way. Rather than saying 'we should tackle climate change and there's a co-benefit for health', it should be 'we need to do this for our health, and there's a co-benefit on climate'."

Montgomery echoed the call for immediate action to tackle climate change for the good of human health. He told the press conference:

"It is too late to avoid impacts, they're here and if we all die tomorrow and stop producing any CO2, we're still locked in for a temperature rise. There is a lag between CO2 emissions and the warming that will come. It's like sticking an extra duvet on, the temperature will slowly rise to a new equilibrium. So we're locked in for change for a long time to come and those harmful effects we're seeing already from perhaps little around 1C of temperature rise, we've got another half degree as a minimum yet to come."

However, there are reasons to be hopeful, he adds, pointing to progress on climate action within the last decade, including a shift away from electricity produced from coal and an increase in the investment into electric cars. He adds:

"Climate change can be fixed right now, there isn't a problem with the technology, it's readily available and deployable. The money is available for it, the only thing that's lacking is the political will to connect the money to the infrastructure."

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Impact of climate change on health is 'the major threat of 21st century' | Carbon Brief

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The health of millions of people across the world is already being significantly harmed by climate change, a major new report finds. From driving up the number of people exposed to heatwaves to increasing the risk of infectious diseases, such as dengue fever, climate change has had far-reaching effects on many aspects of human health in last few decades, the authors say.

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In the year 2100, 2 billion people - about one-fifth of the world's population - could become climate change refugees due to rising ocean levels. Those who once lived on coastlines will face displacement and resettlement bottlenecks as they seek habitable places inland, according to Cornell research the journal Land Use Policy, July 2017.

"We're going to have more people on less land and sooner that we think," said lead author Charles Geisler, professor emeritus of development sociology. "The future rise in global mean sea level probably won't be gradual. Yet few policy makers are taking stock of the significant barriers to entry that coastal climate refugees, like other refugees, will encounter when they migrate to higher ground."

Earth's escalating population is expected to top 9 billion people by 2050 and climb to 11 billion people by 2100, according to a United Nations report. Feeding that population will require more arable land even as swelling oceans consume fertile coastal zones and river deltas, driving people to seek new places to dwell.

By 2060, about 1.4 billion people could be climate change refugees, according to the paper. Geisler extrapolated that number to 2 billion by 2100.

"The colliding forces of human fertility, submerging coastal zones, residential retreat, and impediments to inland resettlement is a huge problem. We offer preliminary estimates of the lands unlikely to support new waves of climate refugees due to the residues of war, exhausted natural resources, declining net primary productivity, desertification, urban sprawl, land concentration, 'paving the planet' with roads and greenhouse gas storage zones offsetting permafrost melt," Geisler said.

Along with co-author Ben Currens '12, a graduate student at the University of Kentucky, Geisler wrote " Impediments to Inland Resettlement Under Conditions of Accelerated Sea Level Rise" with funding from the Cornell Institute for the Social Sciences ' Contested Global Landscapes Project.

The paper describes tangible solutions and proactive adaptations in places like Florida and China, which coordinate coastal and interior land-use policies in anticipation of weather-induced population shifts.

Florida has the second-longest coastline in the United States, and its state and local officials have planned for a coastal exodus, Geisler said, in the state's Comprehensive Planning Act.

Beyond sea level rise, low-elevation coastal zones in many countries face intensifying storm surges that will push sea water further inland. Historically, humans have spent considerable effort reclaiming land from oceans, but now live with the opposite - the oceans reclaiming terrestrial spaces on the planet," said Geisler. In their research, Geisler and Currens explore a worst-case scenario for the present century.

The authors note that the competition of reduced space that they foresee will induce land-use trade-offs and conflicts. In the United States and elsewhere, this could mean selling off public lands for human settlement.

Said Geisler: "The pressure is on us to contain greenhouse gas emissions at present levels. It's the best 'future proofing' against climate change, sea level rise and the catastrophic consequences likely to play out on coasts, as well as inland in the future."

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Rising seas could result in 2 billion refugees by 2100 | Cornell Chronicle

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In the year 2100, 2 billion people - about one-fifth of the world's population - could become climate change refugees due to rising ocean levels. Those who once lived on coastlines will face displacement and resettlement bottlenecks as they seek habitable places inland, according to Cornell research the journal Land Use Policy, July 2017.

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143 Million People Could Soon Become Climate Change Refugees

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Climate change may cause as many as 143 million people across just three regions to be displaced by 2050, the World Bank warns

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Can I help nature to help us?

Yes! We can all take notice of our environment. We can learn how our planet works. We can learn how to live on it without making a mess of it. We can help to keep it magnificent for ourselves, our children and grandchildren, and other living things besides us.

Some of the ways you can help may have to wait until you are a little older-like choosing an energy-efficient car, installing solar panels on the roof of your house, or choosing a "green career."

But there are many important ways you can help right now.

You can help by growing your own vegetables and fruits. You can help by planting a tree. Your new plants and trees will help to remove the greenhouse gas CO ₂ from the air. If you grow some of your own food, you will also help to prevent more CO ₂ from entering the air from the fossil-fuel-burning trucks, planes, and ships that transport your food to you from far away.

How can I reduce my "carbon footprint"?

Your carbon footprint is the amount of carbon dioxide released into the air because of your own energy needs. You need transportation, electricity, food, clothing, and other goods. Your choices can make a difference.

Swap old incandescent light bulbs for the new compact fluorescent lights (CFLs). They use only 25% as much electricity to give the same light. They last ten times longer.

Turn off lights, TVs, computers, when you do not need them.

Unplug! Any electronic gadget you can turn on with a remote (TV, DVD player, Nintendo, Xbox) uses power even when it is "off." Appliances with a digital clock (like a coffee maker) or a power adapter (like a laptop computer) also suck power like a sneaky vampire. Plug these kinds of things into a surge protector or power strip that has an on/off switch. Then you can shut off all the power without unplugging each gadget.

There are even power strips that glow to show you how much power is going through them, and power strips you can control from your computer or iPhone.

Turn up the thermostat on the air conditioning when it's hot. Use fans if you're still hot. They use much less power.

Turn down the thermostat on the heating when it's cold. Sweaters, blankets, and socks are good for you and better for the planet.

Walk or ride your bike instead of taking a car everywhere. Even a 2-mile car trip puts 2 pounds of CO ₂ into the atmosphere!

If you must ride, carpool.

Stay out of the drive thru! When you go to a fast-food place, ask your driver to park the car and let you walk inside, rather than sitting in a line of cars with the engine running and polluting.

How can I reduce my trash pile?

Ask your parents to buy reusable grocery bags. Help them to remember to get them out of the car and take them into the store.

Recycle everything you can. If your city does not pick up recycled materials, find out who you can talk to about starting this service. You should be recycling paper, aluminum cans, cardboard, food cans, plastic, glass, newspapers, magazines, junk mail, phone books, and anything else made of paper.

Shop thrift stores. "BYOM." Bring your own mug. That's what you can tell your parents when they stop to buy their morning coffee. Use less paper whenever possible. Save the trees.

Drink tap water-filtered, if you like-instead of bottled water. Carry your drinking water in a reusable bottle. Plastic water bottles are an environmental disaster!

Use fewer containers. Buy the product that uses less packaging material. Even if you recycle packaging materials, it takes energy to create them in the first place and energy to remake them into something else.

Practice by playing "Recycle This!."

Do I need to save water too?

People and animals in many parts of the world do not have clean, safe water to drink. As many more regions are hit by drought, this problem will become even more serious. The sooner we start conserving water, the better off we all will be. Be aware of how much water you use.

Imagine you live in a recreational vehicle (RV), and your water tank holds only 50 gallons. Every time you turn on the water, the noisy electric water pump has to turn on too, sucking up your RV's battery power. Would you keep the water running while you brush your teeth? Would you spend 15 minutes in the shower using up all the water in the tank and depleting the battery? Would you plant a thirsty lawn in front of your RV if you were parked in the desert? Of course not!

How can I make a real difference?

You can choose a "green career." You can help to solve climate change problems and challenges. These are the exciting careers of the future. They range from designing satellites for NASA to fixing wind-energy generators to planning drought-tolerant landscapes for homes and parks. Many of the possible careers haven't even been thought of yet. You could invent your own career! Check out some Green Careers.

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We can do a lot, including planning for a green career.

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climate change mitigation carbon protecting earth reforestation natural climate solutions

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The Nature Conservancy is focused on innovative solutions that match the urgency of this crisis. We are protecting & restoring forests, improving working lands, helping communities build resilience & working to ensure a clean energy future.

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Can one person in seven billion make a difference? Despite the furor over government reports and international conferences, climate change is a problem of personal consumption. Swiss scientists say humanity could limit the effects if each person used just 2,000 watts of power a year. The average American consumes 12,000. A Bangladeshi uses 300. The challenge is conscientious reduction in the West, writes Naomi Klein in This Changes Everything. Lifestyle choices, such as traveling less plus better regulation and technologies will help the numbers drop.

Tiny House Footprint

Since 1973 the average U.S. home has ballooned by 60 percent to 2,657 square feet. A warmer world may favor a reverse trend. Jay Shafer (at left in photo), the California pioneer of living in tiny houses, built a lifestyle in 96 square feet (layout provided)-and helped others build pint-size homes. Developers in New York City and San Francisco have created the urban equivalent: micro-apartments.

Efficient Living

Shrinking your space doesn't mean shrinking your life. Downsizing, experts say, can bring both psychological and financial benefits. Start by getting rid of clutter. End with lower utility bills, less space to clean, and more time outdoors.

A future home's best attribute may be its smartness, which helps appliances conserve water and energy.

Micro-living spaces tend to work best in urban environments, with their existing utility hookups.

Efficiency brings reduced living costs. But unusual home designs can make securing land and permits hard.

Transportation

If you want to use the cleanest mode of transportation, nothing beats walking or biking, which create zero greenhouse gases beyond those produced making the bike and the food you eat. From there, it's far more complicated. According to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, transit buses use more energy per passenger-mile than cars. For long distances, you're better off flying-carpooling in the sky-or, for the ultraprudent, taking a train.

Calculations will change as the world's fleet shifts from fossil fuels to electric. "By 2035 there will be very few conventional gasoline or diesel cars being sold," says Dan Sperling, director of UC Davis's Institute of Transportation Studies. Global trends toward mass urbanization make infrastructure planning easier. They also raise the likelihood that more people will take trains, bikes, or their own feet to get from A to B.

"If we want to cut carbon pollution fast, moving beyond oil for transportation is an obvious strategy."

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Beyond the debates in government reports and international conferences, climate change is a problem of personal consumption. One of the biggest challenges is conscientious reduction of resource use in the West. Individual lifestyle choices like traveling less, living in smaller spaces, and better regulation and technologies can help.

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In 2009, when MIT's Sloan Management Review first surveyed businesses about sustainability efforts, it found most "doing only what is necessary to meet regulatory requirements." Five years later the survey told a different story: Nearly two-thirds of companies said sustainability was at the top of their agendas, which fewer than half had said earlier. What changed? The CEOs' sense of green initiatives' worth, say Patricia and Jack Phillips, authors of The Green Scorecard. "Today, most (if not all) businesses recognize that climate change is a problem," they write. "Smart companies use their environmental strategy to ... build competitive advantage."

Repowering

To move toward cleaner energy without sending power plants into premature retirement, companies are making over plants, switching fuels, and boosting efficiency. Some utilities are "repowering" coal plants like this one in Newburgh, New York (above), to run on cleaner natural gas or biomass; nearly 50 units are slated for retrofits in the U.S. alone. "Repowering" is an industry term, but the concept also applies to trucks, buildings, and land. For businesses loath to see valuable assets become obsolete, it's a no-brainer. California garbage hauler Ratto Group is replacing the guts of 17 diesel trucks with electric systems that will meet state air regulations. "This gives me the ability to keep the vehicles that I currently have," says COO Lou Ratto, "and keep these things going for as long as I want to."

Big Data

Many answers on climate change might lie in a cloud-the virtual one. As part of President Barack Obama's Climate Data Initiative, tech giants such as Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are lending their computational muscle to crunch data on the environment and help communities plan for an altering landscape. The results-from drought maps to sea-level charts-can help farmers manage crops or officials steer construction projects away from flood zones.

"We are guests on this planet, so conservation is important to help ensure our resources are sustained for generations to come."

The hotel company has cut its greenhouse gases 12 percent since 2007 and aims to cut energy and water use 20 percent by 2020.

Green Bonds

A warming world isn't likely to change money-but it could affect how people invest it. Banks are now offering "green bonds," which let investors link their money to environmental causes. Green bonds are similar to regular bonds, but they fund projects that mitigate climate change or help people adapt to it. "We're telling the investor exactly how the money will be used," says World Bank sustainability adviser Laura Tlaiye.

Clean-energy proposals qualify, as do innovations in waste management and agricultural efficiency. In Rio de Janeiro $600 million went to improve a traffic-alleviating suburban rail network. Belarus borrowed $90 million to replace natural gas heating with biomass. U.S. banks have created their own green bonds; earlier this year one leading bank raised half a billion dollars to finance cities' plans for new solar capacity, wind turbines, and energy-efficient street lamps.

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5 Ways to Curb Climate Change: Businesses

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Last year, nearly two-thirds of companies said sustainability was at the top of their business agendas. Today, many businesses recognize that climate change is a problem, and smart companies are using environmental strategies to build competitive advantage in the marketplace.

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More than half the world's population lives in urban areas. By 2050 cities will likely be bursting with two-thirds of the people on the planet. Since urban areas already account for an estimated 76 percent of CO ₂ emissions from energy use-and many are especially vulnerable to flooding and higher temperatures-it makes sense that city officials are taking on climate change. After all, doing so also gives them a shot at reducing pollution, improving aging infrastructure, and making their cities more attractive to residents and businesses.

SMART STREETS

Chicago has built what city officials call the "greenest street in America"-a two-mile stretch in the industrial neighborhood of Pilsen. Bike and parking lanes are paved with smog-eating concrete; sidewalks are made from recycled materials. Wind and sun power streetlights. Bioswales, thick with drought-tolerant plants, divert storm water from overburdened sewers. The spruced-up streetscape uses 42 percent less energy than it used to-and cost 21 percent less than a traditional road project.

GREEN BUILDINGS

Buildings are responsible for approximately one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions, a figure likely to shrink as more cities require municipal buildings to be energy efficient. Increasingly, government office buildings will have solar panels and even gardens on roofs, sensors to douse lights in empty rooms, windows lined with heat-trapping film, and energy-efficient HVAC systems.

SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT

Despite its reputation as a water guzzler, Los Angeles is pioneering ways to capture every drop that falls from the sky. On a flood-prone block of Elmer Avenue in the east San Fernando Valley, storm water used to be funneled into drains and out to the ocean. A $2.7 million project has transformed the block into a sponge, capable of collecting enough water yearly to supply 30 families.

"Mayors don't have to wait for national governments or a new global climate agreement to act. They can take action today-and increasingly, they are."

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By 2050, more than two-thirds of the world's population is likely to live in cities. Since urban areas already account for an estimated 76 percent of CO2 emissions from energy use, it makes sense that city officials are taking on climate change, with smart streets, green buildings, and better resource management.